Tuesday, August 30, 2016



This is What’s Caused Silver & Gold Buyers to Hold their Fire

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 01:00 PM PDT

BIG MONEY has stepped away from the gold and silver table. The big challenge for silver now is to hold the line at roughly $18 on the way back down from $21.  If $18 can be held, and big money sees enough value, they'll step in, and starting buying hard…   Submitted by The Wealth […]

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Why Gold Fell & What Turning Japanese Had To Do With It

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 12:51 PM PDT

How To Stay Optimistic & Not Worry About TEOTWAWKI

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 12:00 PM PDT

We've received numerous emails from friends and readers in Germany asking if it's time to "get out". Let's be honest– most of the West is in the same boat right now…     Submitted by Simon Black, Sovereign Man: Earlier this week the German government leaked a frightening 69-page memo entitled "Concept for Civil Defense." […]

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Here’s How to END THE FED | Ron Paul

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 11:00 AM PDT

Is GOLD the only solution to End the Fed?  Legendary Fed critic and Presidential Candidate Ron Paul explains…   Buy Silver Pandas Buy 90% Junk Silver at the Lowest Prices Online As Low As $1.29/oz Over Spot! LIVE and Historical Data

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Gold Price at Risk of Breaking Down

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 10:47 AM PDT

Trade wars: Why the central pillar of global order is in danger of collapse as TTIP disintegrates

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 10:37 AM PDT

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WAKE UP CALL: Bill Holter Warns Our Entire World is Going To Change…

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 10:35 AM PDT

The cartel hit gold hard again this week, selling $1.5 BILLION in paper gold into the market in ONE MINUTE and as Bill Holter notes, "$1.5 Billion of gold is close to 2% of global production and to see that sold in one minute is laughable." Bill asks, "Who has that amount of gold to sell?  And […]

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Jim Rickards: “There Will Be A War On Gold”

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 10:30 AM PDT

When governments suddenly wake up one day and say, "Wait a second, all these people we tried to chase out of paper money, they're going into gold."—at that point, there will be a WAR ON GOLD…     Submitted by Tekoa Da Silva, Sprott’s Thoughts: > Jim Rickards: "There Will Be A War On Gold" […]

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Alasdair Macleod Explains How GDP Conceals Inflation

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 10:00 AM PDT

Unsound money, credit cycles, and price inflation Phase one: suppressing interest rates… Submitted by Alasdair Macleod:  There are so many things wrong with GDP, that even mainstream economists are becoming vaguely aware of its shortcomings. A good friend drew my attention to a Bloomberg article on this subject, which at least shows a growing awareness […]

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Sprott’s Thoughts On A Negative Interest Rate World

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 09:00 AM PDT

Rate Hikes, or NIRP?  What’s really next for US interest rates?  Sprott’s Thoughts Weighs In…   By Tim Taschler, Sprott’s Thoughts:  The FT reports that the value of negative-yielding bonds – both government and corporate – swelled to $13.4 trillion this week as negative interest rates and central bank bond buying ripple through the debt […]

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Fighting Boredom

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 08:14 AM PDT

In a stunning development, gold and silver are back down today as the USDJPY has shot even higher with more grumblings from Goon Fischer. It's really difficult to stay interested during weeks like this when it's highly unlikely that anything substantial will occur before 8:30 am on Friday.

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Four More Mega-Banks Join the Anti-Dollar Alliance

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 08:00 AM PDT

That was fast…   Submitted by Simon Black, Sovereign Man: Yesterday I told you how a consortium of 15 Japanese banks had just signed up to implement new financial technology to clear and settle international financial transactions. This is a huge step. Right now, most international financial transactions must pass through the US banking system's […]

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Posted: 30 Aug 2016 07:00 AM PDT

We have been highlighting the wave of billionaires who are all getting out of the stock market this summer and buying gold.  Well, now it's a trillionaire…     Submitted by Jeff Berwick, The Dollar Vigilante: Of course, he's not "officially" on top in the "most wealthy" lists… but that is because the Rothschilds have been experts […]


Gold Will SOAR As Housing Crashes – Fund Manager

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 06:40 AM PDT

Gold and housing are headed in different directions…     Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, IRD: The precious metals market is at the end of its typical mid-July to last August "breather." This is the time of the year when the eastern hemisphere physical buyers are somewhat dormant.  Over the last several years, China's emergence […]

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July U.S. Consumer Spending and Gold

Posted: 30 Aug 2016 02:40 AM PDT


Gold Price Still Contained by the 2011-2012 Trendline

Posted: 11 Aug 2016 01:08 PM PDT

Gold 2.0: How to Profit from the Current Gold Bull Market

Posted: 11 Aug 2016 01:00 AM PDT

After five years of a brutal bear market, gold and gold miners are finally having a huge rebound, and investor Chen Lin, writer of the popular newsletter What is Chen Buying? What is Chen Selling?,...

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Portfolio Management Rules Regarding Selling

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 11:52 AM PDT

In this brief report we cover five reasons to sell a position and how to sell positions during a bull market. This is in part how we run the model portfolio. We hope this will be helpful to everyone.


1. Sell if you have a 20% loss

We always abide by a rule to sell positions that become a 20% loss. It obviously works much better in a bear market (as stocks trend lower and lower) but it is important to keep in mind. A 20% loss on a 5% position limits the portfolio to a 1% loss on a single position.

That being said, a bull market will usually bail you out of a bad entry point. If you bought (removed) close to the high then you are probably down over 20%. Time and the bull market will likely bail you out.

However, if you are going to chase stocks that are already overbought and somewhat parabolic then it is best to use a tighter mental stop loss. Say 10% instead of 20%.

Ultimately, we should ask ourselves if something "could" go down 20% in the near term. If the answer is yes then it is probably best to wait for a better entry point. Wait for that stock to correct or consolidate and look to buy something else.


2. Sell if the stock closes below its 400-day or 80-week moving average

This is a technical reason and it probably won't be an issue for the sector anytime soon. Nevertheless it is something to definitely keep in mind for mining stocks and all assets and markets.


3. Sell if the fundamentals change
This seems straight-forward but it also includes selling if our perception of the fundamentals changes.

Recent examples of that include our decision to sell (removed) and sell half of (removed). We noted the intel we received about (removed) project possibly having issues as well as the poor performance of the stock. The stock has (removed) but we don't feel bad about selling the stock. The potential issues with (removed) could come to light at somepoint.

The same can be said regarding the (removed). Maybe there won't be any issues for either company but nevertheless it was clear to us that there were potential fundamental risks for both companies. I will note that sometimes it can take a few quarters or even a few years for some of these risks to come to fruition.

(Removed) could be a pending example. They still have many more (removed) to report but (removed). Another (removed) would give us a fundamental reason to abandon the stock. Of course the sale price would likely be lower in that scenario.


4. Sell if you find a better opportunity

Consider replacing laggards with stocks that are better values or opportunities. For example, right now, there are better opportunities in the junior exploration companies that have sub $40 Million market caps. We've covered a few of them over the past month.

Also, if my anticipation is correct, we could have a broad-based sector correction after Gold hits $1500-$1550. If you missed "quality" the first time around, you would have another chance to buy it. A broad-based correction allows an opportunity to reshuffle the portfolio as the correction would create new opportunities.


5. Sell if position becomes too large or overvalued

If a position becomes too large (as part of a diversified portfolio) then consider selling part of the position to reduce its weighting in your portfolio. When (removed) it had nearly tripled in one month. The position became quite large as a percentage of the portfolio. We could have sold a fraction of it at the time. Now it's (removed).

Note that (removed) is currently (removed) of our portfolio. It is a special situation in that it is a tiny company that is fairly valued with additional upside potential. It also is a strong takeover target and that would give us a chance to exit at an even higher profit. Thus, we are holding the full position. If a takeover target seems overvalued or extended, it could be a signal of a coming takeover.
How to Sell in a Bull Market

In a bull market, as we are in, it is best to sell positions in increments. In other words, scale out of the position a handful of times over a period of several years.

Let's say I bought (removed) around (removed) and it could reach $50 in four or five years. It's trading near (removed) right now. Perhaps I will sell 25% at $8, 25% at $15 and another 25% at $25. Note that you could buy back what you sold if the stock corrects. If not and the stock continues higher then you would put that capital into something else.

Junior exploration companies move faster and are much more volatile. We can employ the same strategy but should note that we need to be a bit more active with the strategy. In other words, it might take (removed) 18 to 24 months to reach $15-$20 while a junior exploration company can triple or rise 5-fold within a single year.

If the sector makes another move higher, as we expect and Gold is moving towards $1500 and GDX towards $40 then we definitely will be looking to take some profits. We will look to cut any laggards or underperformers as well as anything that looks overvalued or has limited upside. We will also trim some of our holdings by 25%. We noted in TDG #477 that we want to maintain a 60%-70% position in the sector.


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