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Tuesday, July 28, 2015

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2015-07-28 HSBC gold price forecast

Posted: 29 Jul 2015 01:59 AM PDT

HSBC lowered its 2015 average gold price forecast from $1,234 to $1,160.

Is the gold price manipulated?

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 12:00 PM PDT

Clif Droke

DEVASTATING Bear Market Cycle Has Begun!

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 12:00 PM PDT

The Nasdaq all dropped this past week with the DOW closing down 518 points, the S&P 500 down 46 and the Nasdaq down 121.  This drop is NOT over, not by a long shot!  This time point was expected to be the FINAL LEG UP & TOP for the US markets and the final opportunity […]

The post DEVASTATING Bear Market Cycle Has Begun! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Where Is Gold Going?

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 11:53 AM PDT

Gold Bouncing from Long Term Trendline

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 11:38 AM PDT

Ron Paul- Exclusive Interview on Prospects For Financial Market Turmoil & Dollar Trouble…

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 11:00 AM PDT

Want to know what Dr. Ron Paul thinks about the potential for a disruptive financial market event and the status of the U.S. dollar in the future?  Interested in his perspective on the Republican Party and last November’s election? Eric Dubin interviewed Dr. Paul about his latest book, “Swords Into Plowshares,” and asked related questions […]

The post Ron Paul- Exclusive Interview on Prospects For Financial Market Turmoil & Dollar Trouble… appeared first on Silver Doctors.

How the Fed has fueled the commodities crash

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 10:59 AM PDT

From Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners:

When we left you at the end of last week the world was falling apart.

As you know, the economy functions on electronic credit… not cold, hard cash. Without the banks pumping more credit into the system – by way of loans – it sags.

The Dow fell 163 points – or about 1% –on Friday.

More significant is the action in the gold market. At this morning’s price of $1,103 an ounce, gold is now trading $100 below what we thought was the “floor” under the price.

Why?

It could be that gold is signaling a global recession/depression. People tend to buy gold when they fear inflation. All they see today is a global deflationary slump.

The People’s Daily newspaper – the official organ of the Communist Party – tells us that Chinese electricity consumption is accelerating at the slowest rate in 30 years.

We all know China’s GDP figures are untrustworthy, but electrons don’t lie. They flow with the economy. And they’re now only increasing at a sluggish 1.3% a year – suggesting a big slowdown in the Chinese economy.

According to economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg – as opposed to the official spin from Beijing – China’s economy is growing at the slowest pace in 25 years.

A Pileup in Commodities

Meanwhile, on the commodities highway, there’s a huge pileup.

The crash in the oil market – which has taken the price per barrel of U.S. crude down 53% over the last 12 months – has left a massive slick.

A barrel of U.S. crude oil sold for just $48.14 at Friday’s close – just 42 cents above its 52-week low. Overall, commodities are at a 13-year low.

And the coal miners have slid on the cheap oil and gas.

In the March issue of our monthly publication, The Bill Bonner Letter, we explained why energy was so cheap. The Fed dropped the price of capital so low that it cost almost nothing to borrow.

When the cheap money came to an end, so would the cheap oil, we guessed.

But it hasn’t happened – yet…

So far, the Fed’s cheap credit has exaggerated and prolonged the bear market in oil. Producers who should have shut down months ago are still pumping – kept in business by ultra-cheap financing.

Coal, cheap when we wrote about it back in March, is now even cheaper. Today, the price of coal is down 70% from four years ago.

This is pushing coal producers to the edge of solvency…

For example, Alpha Natural Resources, a big producer of metallurgical coal – or “met” coal, which is used for steelmaking –was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange because its share price was “abnormally low.” Bankruptcy is now in the cards.

And this from OilPrice.com on the fate of another big met coal producer, Walter Energy:

Walter Energy, an Alabama coal miner, announced on July 15 that it is filing for bankruptcy. Senior lenders will see their debt turned into equity, and if the company cannot turn the ship around, it will more or less sell off all of its assets.

“In the face of ongoing depressed conditions in the market for met coal, we must do what is necessary to adapt to the new reality in our industry,” Walter Energy’s CEO Walt Scheller said in a press release.

Dr. Copper’s Diagnosis

Dr. Copper, too, says it’s going to be a rough second half of the year for the global economy.

Copper has earned the “Dr.” title; the old-timers say it is “the only metal with a PhD in economics.”

Copper goes into everything – houses, offices, electronics, autos, you name it. Although it’s not a perfect correlation by any means, when the price of copper falls, it indicates that the world economy is going down too.

From Bloomberg:

Goldman said prices will probably drop another 16% by the end of next year and expects Chinese demand to grow at the slowest pace in almost two decades.

Goldman on Wednesday lowered its copper price outlook by as much as 44% through 2018.

Why the big slowdown? Why is the world falling apart?

Because you can’t fake an economic recovery…

Instead of “stimulating” a recovery, the feds have “simulated” one.

They dropped the price of capital to near zero. Commodity producers took the bait. They borrowed money and increased production.

But global demand couldn’t keep up.

You can’t get real demand from empty credit. Real demand comes from Main Street, not Wall Street.

And for that, you need a real recovery, not a phony one.

Regards,

Bill

Crux note: A global economic slump may be the least of your worries… As Bill has been warning, right now in America, the highest levels of government and the banking system are locked in a desperate last stand against a disturbing monetary shock…

When it hits, you could suddenly be locked out of your bank account… unable to withdraw cash or use your credit card… your stocks will swing wildly out of control… your Social Security checks will pile up unopened on your kitchen table… no one will cash them… Go here now for the full story from Bill.

Gold, Silver, Equities: Megaphone Patterns

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 10:00 AM PDT

Examine the 20 year log scale chart of monthly gold.  I have drawn lines connecting highs and lows.  The result is an expanding channel or megaphone pattern.  The increasing prices are exponential (log scale chart) because of exponential increases in debt, money supply, and Keynesian craziness, although I have no graph to prove the latter. […]

The post Gold, Silver, Equities: Megaphone Patterns appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Commodities Collapsed Just Before The Last Stock Market Crash – So Guess What Is Happening Right Now?

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 09:00 AM PDT

A great financial shaking has already begun around the world, and it will hit U.S. financial markets very soon.   From The Economic Collapse Blog: If we were going to see a stock market crash in the United States in the fall of 2015 (to use a hypothetical example), we would expect to see commodity […]

The post Commodities Collapsed Just Before The Last Stock Market Crash – So Guess What Is Happening Right Now? appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Comex Leverage Widens To Record

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 08:43 AM PDT

With a move yesterday by JPM to reclassify 104,000 ounces of gold from registered to eligible, the total Comex registered vault has fallen to the lowest level in recent memory.

read more

Gold Price May Rise on Fed Rate Hike But 2015 Investment Sinks as Global Demand Drops 10%

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 08:01 AM PDT

Bullion Vault

Jim Rickards: “Euro Creators Want to Force Common Fiscal Control, Eurobonds”

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 08:00 AM PDT

The Greek crisis is no accident, says Jim Rickards, but is part of a long-running plan to bring Europe under central control.   Submitted by Henry Bonner, Sprott’s Thoughts: Jim was general council at Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that made massively levered bets in the late 90's and eventually went south, exposing banks […]

The post Jim Rickards: “Euro Creators Want to Force Common Fiscal Control, Eurobonds” appeared first on Silver Doctors.

800 lb Gorilla in the Room is STILL King of Paper Naked Shorts!

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 08:00 AM PDT

The 800 pound Gorilla in the room is STILL World Champion and has not even broken a sweat in all his bouts yet – The Gold Producer Merchant!  Still King of paper naked shorts…   Submitted by Marshall Swing: Any readers remember my predictions on oil back 6 months+ ago?   From Bloomberg the headline: […]

The post 800 lb Gorilla in the Room is STILL King of Paper Naked Shorts! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

The Real Reason Putin Said “NO” to Funding the Drachma and Grexit…

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 07:00 AM PDT

The "Great Game" Goes On. Today we take a look at the most shocking revelation of the week: that Putin himself said "no" to funding the Greek drachma, and by extension, an immediate Grexit.   Submitted by The Wealth Watchman: We talk in detail about: Precisely why(if true) Putin chose to do this… How the Ukraine crisis […]

The post The Real Reason Putin Said "NO" to Funding the Drachma and Grexit… appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Buy and “Own Krugerrands” Says Legendary Jim Grant

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 04:01 AM PDT

gold.ie

Will the Stock Market Start To Fall In July? The Dow Plummeted More Than 500 Points Last Week

Posted: 28 Jul 2015 04:00 AM PDT

Unfortunately, no financial bubble ever lasts forever, and right now some very alarming things are starting to happen behind the scenes. Over the past couple of weeks, smart money has been dumping stocks like crazy, and the lack of liquidity in the bond markets is beginning to become acute.  Was last week a preview of things […]

The post Will the Stock Market Start To Fall In July? The Dow Plummeted More Than 500 Points Last Week appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Could this really finally be the moment to buy the gold miners?

Posted: 27 Jul 2015 11:55 PM PDT

Casey Research is making the same case it has made numerous times over the past few years, and always been wrong: namely that now is the moment for contrarian investors to pile into gold mining stocks.

Anybody who has taken this advice has lost a lot of money. ArabianMoney at least had the decency to close its paid-for investment newsletter this year and give up on offering this advice. We’ve gone back to being purely a journalistic channel, admittedly with its own bias like any other media outlet.

Wrong for too long?

The problem for Casey is that yes their case gets better and better, the lower and lower gold prices and gold stocks go. But that only further serves to prove them wrong, at least for the moment. So what do they say?

‘Gold stocks are down 78 per cent from their peak in 2011. They've been in a bear market for 52 months, making this the second-longest bear market in gold stocks in 76 years. On average, gold-stock bear markets last only 34 months.

‘It's gotten so bad that the mainstream media is declaring gold dead. A Washington Post headline from Saturday was titled ‘Gold is doomed.’ A Bloomberg headline read ‘Gold Looks Like a 'Textbook' Short.’

Investment track record?

‘Longtime readers know that the mainstream financial media has a horrible track record of investment calls. You're usually better off doing the exact opposite of what they recommend.’

Really, not if you’ve been following this logic for the past four years on gold stocks or the metal itself. However, Casey Research does have a point that markets always find a bottom, they have just been lousy at calling it. Have they got it right this time?

What does that matter if they have lost all credibility in the market in the meantime? Remember the old tale about the little boy who cried fire so many times that when there was a fire his house burn’t down? He was being malicious in his comments rather than trying to make an accurate forecast, but it was about as much use.

Now Casey refers us to research by Meb Faber, the chief investment officer for Cambria Investment Management who ‘looked at the data for US industries dating back to the 1920s. He found that industries down 80 per cent or more from their peak held incredible upside potential.

Big bounce back

‘On average, these industries returned more than 170 per cent three years later after recovering… Gold stocks are down 78 per cent and have fallen for three years in a row…Buying a sector that's near a bottom is scary. The news is terrible, and it feels like the sector will never go up again.’

You can say that again, and Casey Research might just do so again next year! That said when even critical goldbugs like ArabianMoney’s confidence is wearing thin then the contrarian moment is surely coming.

If there is an argument for buying gold stocks now it is this: prices in relation to the gold price are very low by historic standards and if you want to pick up more than a few shares in a rebound then you need to accumulate them now while this market is so far out of favor. You may not be able to buy many at these low prices when they do finally turn. Time to buy anybody?

Chinese crash pushes Fed rate rises back to 2016 says Art Cashin

Posted: 27 Jul 2015 09:49 PM PDT

UBS veteran analyst Art Cashin discusses where the money that is leaving China’s market is going, if anywhere except for margin loan payments, and how this meltdown impacts the outlook for US interest rate rises. US stocks have just had their first five-day fall in six months.

He does not think the Fed will now raise rates until into next year…


Video link click here!

Now Is The Time – Fear Rises As Financial Markets All Over The Planet Start To Crash

Posted: 27 Jul 2015 05:56 PM PDT

Fear - Public DomainCan you feel the panic in the air?  CNN Money’s Fear & Greed Index measures the amount of fear in the financial world on a scale from 0 to 100.  The closer it is to zero, the higher the level of fear.  Last Monday, the index was sitting at a reading of 36.  As I write this article, it has fallen to 7.  The financial turmoil which began last week is threatening to turn into an avalanche. On Sunday night, we witnessed the second largest one day stock market collapse in China ever, and this pushed stocks all over the planet into the red.  Meanwhile, the twin blades of an emerging market currency crisis and a commodity price crash are chewing up economies that are dependent on the export of natural resources all over the globe.  For a long time, I have been warning about what would happen in the second half of 2015, and now it is here.  The following is a summary of the financial carnage that we have seen over the past 24 hours…

-On Sunday night, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 8.5 percent.  It was the largest one day stock market crash in China since 2007, and it was the second largest in history.  The Chinese government is promising to directly intervene in order to prevent Chinese stocks from going down even more.

-Over 1,500 stocks in China fell by their 10 percent daily maximum.  This list includes giants such as China Unicom, Bank of Communications and PetroChina.

-Ever since peaking in June, the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped by a total of 28 percent.

-Even Chinese stocks that are listed on U.S. stock exchanges are being absolutely hammered.  The following comes from USA Today

The 144 China-based stocks with primary listings on major U.S. exchanges have erased nearly $40 billion in paper wealth since the Shanghai Composite index peaked on June 12. It’s an enormous destruction of wealth that in effects wipes out the market value of a company the size of cruise ship operator Carnival.

-The Chinese stock market crash pushed European stocks significantly lower on Monday…

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 provisionally closed 2.1 percent lower, while the Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC closed respectively 2.4 percent and 2.5 percent lower.

The U.K.’s benchmark FTSE outperformed its euro zone peers, but still closed unofficially down 1.0 percent.

-Overall, European stocks have been falling steadily since the beginning of last week.  To get an idea of how much damage has been done already, just check out this chart.

-As I mentioned above, an emerging market currency crisis is causing havoc for economies all over the planet.  The following comes from an article that was published by the Telegraph

The currencies of Brazil, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey have all crashed to multi-year lows as investors flee emerging markets and commodity prices crumble.

The drastic moves came as fears of imminent monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve combined with shockingly weak figures from China, which stoked fears that the country may be sliding into a deeper downturn and sent tremors through East Asia, Latin America and Africa.

-The government of Puerto Rico has announced that it does not have enough cash to make a scheduled debt payment of 169 million dollars on August 1st.  The Obama administration says that there are no plans in the works to bail out Puerto Rico.

-On Monday, the Dow was down another 127 points.  It was the fifth day in a row that the Dow and the S&P 500 have both declined.

-Overall, the Dow is now down more than 650 points since July 20th.

-480 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange have hit new 52-week lows.  Many analysts consider this to be a very, very ominous sign.

-I have repeatedly written about the danger of the commodity collapse that we are currently witnessing, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index fell another 1.22 percent on Monday to a fresh low of 92.1493.

-On Monday, the price of U.S. oil hit a 52-week low of $46.92.

-So far, the price of U.S. oil has fallen about 20 percent this month.

-Back in June 2014, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude was above 107 dollars.  Since then, the price of U.S. oil has fallen an astounding 56 percent.

-Thanks in large part to the collapse in energy prices, junk bonds are cratering.  This is something that happened just before the financial crisis of 2008, and now it is happening again.  The following comes from Wolf Street

Among the bonds: Cliffs Natural Resources down 27.6%, SandBridge down 30%, Murray Energy down 21.2%, and Linn Energy down 22.3%, according to Bloomberg.

For example, Linn Energy 6.25% notes due in 2019 were trading at 78 cents on the dollar at the beginning of July and at 58 on Friday, according to LCD. There was bloodshed beyond energy, such as AK Steel's 7.625% notes due in 2021. They were trading at 62 cents on the dollar, down 22% from the beginning of July.

"The performance is a disappointment to investors who purchased about $40 billion of junk-rated bonds from energy companies this year, thinking that the worst of the slump was over," Bloomberg noted.

This is exactly what we would expect to see during the early stages of a financial crisis.

Of course global financial markets may bounce back somewhat tomorrow.  If you will remember, some of the largest one day gains in stock market history happened right in the middle of the stock market collapse of 2008.  So don’t get fooled by what happens on any one particular day.

With so much fear in the air, literally anything could happen in the weeks and months ahead of us.  One month ago, I issued a red alert for the last six months of this year.  I warned that a major financial crisis was imminent and that people needed to start protecting themselves immediately.

As I write this article on Monday evening, financial markets are already opening up over in Asia.  Japanese stocks are already down 251 points even though the market has only been open for about an hour over there.

We have entered a time when what is happening to global stock markets will once again be headline news.  We are right on the precipice of another great financial crisis, only this one is going to ultimately end up being much worse than the last one.

Now is the time.

Please get prepared while you still can.

The Collapse Of The U.S. Retirement Market & Epic Rise In The Price Of Gold

Posted: 27 Jul 2015 05:00 PM PDT

The once great U.S. Empire is now in big trouble.  The U.S. Empire is on its last legs.  At some point, we will not be able to trade worthless Fiat Dollars for our oil imports.  Falling domestic oil production, on top of falling oil imports will wreak havoc on the U.S. Economy and most paper […]

The post The Collapse Of The U.S. Retirement Market & Epic Rise In The Price Of Gold appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Video Update: What’s Next for Gold, Gold Miners & US Stocks

Posted: 27 Jul 2015 04:01 PM PDT

We discuss the near and medium term outlook for Gold, gold stocks and the stock market.

 

The post Video Update: What’s Next for Gold, Gold Miners & US Stocks appeared first on The Daily Gold.

Harvey Organ: Options Expiration Week!

Posted: 27 Jul 2015 03:00 PM PDT

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen.  We are entering options expiry week: Submitted by Harvey Organ: Comex options expiry Tuesday, July 28. LMBA options expiry:  noon London time July 31.2015 OTC options expiry: midnight July 31.2015       Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:       Gold:  $1096.50 up $10.90 […]

The post Harvey Organ: Options Expiration Week! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

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