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- Equity and bond market weakness to send gold price much higher
- Hedge funds net short in gold ETFs for the first time ever
- US stocks fall for four days and gold rallies above $1,100
- Can the US return to a Gold Standard ? (Alan Greenspan 1981)
- Just a Minting Shortage? “There IS A WHOLESALE Shortage!” -Sprott’s John Embry
- Two Week Shanghai Gold Exchange Withdrawals Exceed All 2014 Comex Deliveries
- Fund Manager: Sub-Sector Financials Indicating Something is MELTING DOWN
- Greece has disappeared from the headlines, but it’s not out of the water yet
| Equity and bond market weakness to send gold price much higher Posted: 24 Jul 2015 11:28 PM PDT A ‘prolonged bout of weakness’ in financial markets is about to shatter confidence in central bankers and boost the gold price, argues one of the world’s best respected fund managers, John Hathaway of Tocqueville Gold in his latest investor letter. ‘We believe that nothing would serve better to undermine confidence in central bankers than a bear market in bonds and equities,’ he contends. ‘The roof above the dollar gold price has been built brick by brick from confidence in central bankers.’ Price bottom? Last week saw gold close down $50, but above $1,100 an ounce, after reaching a 50 per cent bull market retracement point that has previously been necessary before the metal could reach very much higher prices (click here). ‘We believe that such a reversal is long overdue, and that the vast majority of investors are ill prepared for this eventuality,’ notes the Tocqueville letter. ‘The demise of the most notable recent bubbles in dotcoms and mortgage-backed securities also seemed to take forever to coalesce. The current bubble in government bonds, supported in our opinion by confidence in central banking, seems to be taking its time to deflate as well. ‘Inflection points in markets take longer to occur than most can imagine, especially when authorities spare no effort to defer the inevitable.’ Inflection point Tocqueville reckons that this shift is likely to occur sooner rather than later for several reasons. First, the Greek debt crisis is a precursor to a much wider systemic crisis in sovereign debts which are too high all over the world. Secondly, equity valuations are very stretched according to ‘three different measures: the CAPE ratio, the Q-ratio, and the Buffett indicator.’ As we have seen in China over the past six weeks, what goes up will always come down eventually, and always when market confidence is at a peak. Thirdly there are increasing signs of US economic weakness, partly due to the high US dollar: ‘The Philadelphia Fed's business-conditions index indicates general deterioration of current activity. ‘Shipping indices, including the Baltic Dry Freight Index, World Container Index, and Shanghai Containerized Freight Index – the sort of data that cannot easily be massaged or beautified for political purposes – have all shown significant recent declines. Retail sales have been weak.’ Price manipulation Fourth, the market manipulation so evident in the past weeks lower gold prices may be ‘the final moments of a second, more sophisticated version of the 1960s London Gold Pool, a scheme organized by US and European governments to suppress the free-market gold price in order to camouflage the growing adverse fundamentals for the US dollar.’ Finally, headline US inflation is far higher than generally supposed: ‘The bottom line to us is that real interest rates, basically nominal rates adjusted for the CPI, are more deeply negative than common perceptions. ‘Therefore, the investment proposition for low-yielding sovereign and other fixed-income securities is highly dubious in our opinion, another bubble waiting to implode.’ |
| Hedge funds net short in gold ETFs for the first time ever Posted: 24 Jul 2015 10:07 PM PDT Hedge funds are net short in gold ETFs for the first time ever. But is this such a big deal? Shorting is what hedge funds do. Retail investors have been out buying record amounts, taking advantage of cheap prices. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas takes a look at gold prices. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Alix Steel on ‘What’d You Miss?’… |
| US stocks fall for four days and gold rallies above $1,100 Posted: 24 Jul 2015 10:02 PM PDT A sell-off driven by poor economic data coming out of China and more talk of Fed rate tightening spooked the US stock markets which continued lower on Friday. But the gold price bounced back above $1,100, albeit still off $50 for the week. Jim Cramer does not accept the logic of a bigger downturn looming for stocks and will be buying quality companies on the dips… |
| Can the US return to a Gold Standard ? (Alan Greenspan 1981) Posted: 24 Jul 2015 04:00 PM PDT Wall Street Journal |
| Just a Minting Shortage? “There IS A WHOLESALE Shortage!” -Sprott’s John Embry Posted: 24 Jul 2015 03:00 PM PDT In the wake of historic movements in the gold and silver markets this week, Sprott’s John Embry joined us for a power-packed show, discussing: Metals Drive-By Shooting As $2.7 Billion Notional in Gold Dumped in Nanoseconds: “This is financial repression at its finest!“ CAPITULATION Bottom In Progress– Absolute OBLITERATION in Mining Sector! Manipulation & MOPE […] The post Just a Minting Shortage? “There IS A WHOLESALE Shortage!” -Sprott’s John Embry appeared first on Silver Doctors. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Two Week Shanghai Gold Exchange Withdrawals Exceed All 2014 Comex Deliveries Posted: 24 Jul 2015 02:00 PM PDT The numbers below are simply SHOCKING: Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics: The Shanghai Gold Exchange is the only major official physical gold trading market in the world. All trades on the exchange are settled with the exchange of ownership on physical gold bullion. Paper future contracts do not […] The post Two Week Shanghai Gold Exchange Withdrawals Exceed All 2014 Comex Deliveries appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Fund Manager: Sub-Sector Financials Indicating Something is MELTING DOWN Posted: 24 Jul 2015 01:00 PM PDT Sub-sector financials are telling us the something is melting down behind the scenes… Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics: As everyone knows, the primary stock indices are being aggressively supported and pushed higher by the Fed using the liquidity with which it as flooded the banking system. However, most of […] The post Fund Manager: Sub-Sector Financials Indicating Something is MELTING DOWN appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Greece has disappeared from the headlines, but it’s not out of the water yet Posted: 24 Jul 2015 09:07 AM PDT From Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners: Onboard the TransCanada – “Have you people ever run a train before?” Sarcasm seemed appropriate. It wasn’t plainly crass or vulgar. Just mildly insulting. The book we were later given on the train explained that the VIA Rail Canada – Canada’s passenger rail system – was inspired by Amtrak in the U.S. This is a little like getting on a cruise line that said it drew inspiration from the Titanic. O CanadaBy then we hardly needed any explanation. Our tickets said we were to be in Prestige Class for the journey from Toronto to Vancouver. But there was nothing prestigious about the way we were handled. After waiting 10 hours to board, we were invited to drag our bags along a quarter mile of platform to get to the prestige car. By the time we got there, we expected to be asked to bend over so the staff could whack us with a board. The train – scheduled to leave at 10 p.m. on Saturday night – did not push off until 9 a.m. the following day. We had gotten a call advising us get to the station “no later than 6 p.m.” so we wouldn’t miss it! We fulfilled our part of the deal. Alas, the Canuck Amtrak failed. Rescheduled for 7 a.m., it was then rescheduled again for 7:30 a.m… and then 8 a.m… “The train got in late to the station. Then we had to wait to find a new engineer,” was the word we got when we asked about it. “People have been running trains for a long time,” we began a lecture. “There is nothing unpredictable about it. A train is a big object. You should know where it is. Then it’s a simple matter to compute when it will arrive. You know – distance divided by speed… ” We felt an elbow. It was Elizabeth telling us to knock it off. Tempted to feel sorry for ourselves, instead we said a prayer for the poor economy-class travelers. They would probably be chained to their seats and whipped with barbed wire. But now we are rolling along. Too bad about the Wi-Fi – it doesn’t work. Nor does the mini-fridge. And the train has been backing up as much as it has been going forward. But, heck, the staff are friendly… and the scenery is magnificent. Beaten Down and DespisedWord comes this morning that Greek banks have reopened. Bank customers have been separated from their money for three weeks. Even now, they are allowed only brief conjugal visits. They may take out only up to €420 ($456) a week. The Greek stock market has reopened, too. But without Wi-Fi, we have not been able to get an update. Greek stocks, as you might imagine, have gotten beaten harder than a traveler on the Canadian train system. They are down as much as 95% from their 2007 high. The average stock listed in Athens sells for a little more than two times earnings. Many sell for barely a single year’s cash flow. It’s not for us to know at what price Greek stocks should trade. But the Greeks have been around a long time. They’re probably not going away. And neither are the companies headquartered there. And some of the biggest payoffs in the investment world have come from putting money into places no one else wanted to go. It’s the beaten down, despised, sad sack of a market that has the greatest potential: It has nowhere to go but up. If you had invested in the Turkish stock market in 1988, for example, today your investment would show a 1,188,047% gain. Every dollar invested, in other words, would be worth more than $11,000. Back in 1988, Argentina was a mess, too. If you had put your money there, you’d have a 39,297,300% gain. Had you invested $10,000, you’d now have $392,973,000. More Drama to Come But the drama isn’t over in Greece. Poor Alexis Tsipras is stuck. On the one side is the hard place: Many in his coalition government are refusing to go along with the deal he just made. Heads are rolling as a result. On the other side are the rocks of Northern Europe – especially Germany. And they are proving treacherous, too. Tsipras’s Syriza government could be history in a few weeks. There’ll be new elections… more negotiations… more cans… more kicks… and more absurdities. It is amazing how much nonsense is published on the subject. The mainstream press has turned it into a simpleton’s version of the kids’ movie A Bug’s Life – a struggle between Greek grasshoppers and German ants. Readers are expected to take sides – either for the poor Greeks or against them. Most economists – most prominently Paul Krugman and Thomas Piketty – weigh in on the side of the Greeks. They urge Germany to give the grasshoppers a break – more time… more money… and more rope. They believe Northern European “austerity” has doomed the Greek economy to and endless depression. But the whole show is silly. The Greeks aren’t going to start acting like ants. They aren’t going to pay back old loans… or new ones. And lending more money to people who already owe more than they can ever hope to repay is never going to help an ailing economy. Regards, Bill Crux note: What’s happening in Greece will be trifling compared to the U.S monetary catastrophe Bill sees coming. It’s all detailed in the new presentation he’s put together. As you’ll learn, this upheaval could leave you locked out of your bank account… unable to use your credit card… or even cash a check. To find out what has Bill so worried, go here now. |
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