Gold World News Flash |
- GUEST POST: Silver Squelchers NINETEEN & Their Interesting Associates — Charles Savoie
- Richard Russell – Despite Massive Propaganda, U.S. Economy Sinking, John Williams Is Right, The Big Lie & The War In Gold
- Top Economic Forecaster Warns: Have Cash On Hand To Survive For Three Months: “No Institution Is Safe”
- Paul Craig Roberts: The Eroding Character Of The American People
- Gold Price Bottom - Key Reversal Day
- Aussie Dollar Tests Long-Term Trendline As China Contagion Spreads
- Shanghai On Track For Record Year With 69 Tonnes Gold Withdrawn In Latest Week
- The Eurasian Big Bang: How China & Russia Are Running Rings Around Washington
- US Mint Sells Most Physical Gold In Two Years On Same Day Gold Price Hits Five Year Low
- The End Of The Supercycle? Commodity "Capitulation" Arrives
- Jim Grant On Gold's Liquidation Sale: A "Vexing But Wonderful Opportunity"
- The Casino-fication Of Markets Is Pervasive & Permanent
- It Cost The Koch Brothers Only $299,000 To Block Labeling Of Genetically Modified Foods
- $1.99 per pound Filet Mignon …and War!
- World Gold Council dismisses gold price plunge
- Rickards: “Euro Creators Want to Force Common Fiscal Control”
- WW3 RED ALERT -- Israel lobbyist calls for false-flag to ignite war with Iran
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Rebound - Option Expiration Next Week
- GATA secretary interviewed on growing obviousness of central bank attacks on gold
- One Expensive Asset You Should Sell
- Does Jewelry or Central Bank Demand Drive the Gold Price?
- Central Banks Ready To Panic — Again
- Global economic termites are eating away gold price foundations
- David Icke : Child Abuse And The Elephant In The Living Room
- Absurd Gold Stock Levels
- Gold Mining Stocks Nearing Rebound
- Gold Stock Carnage Continues Unabated
- Commodities Distressed Investing
| GUEST POST: Silver Squelchers NINETEEN & Their Interesting Associates — Charles Savoie Posted: 24 Jul 2015 11:17 PM PDT [Note: #19 in the incredible Silver Squelchers research series is 120 pages long. It’s essentially an entire book of its own, offered for FREE to SGT Report readers, courtesy of the one and only Charles Savoie. Please PRINT THESE OUT and save them! ~SGT] Investment Bankers in The Pilgrims Society – Part I by Charles Savoie, Silver Stealers.net, via SGT Report:
1) Miner Hill Warner (1942—; is current president of The Pilgrims Society of the U.S.); second generation member. His info from the 2014 Who's Who in the East, page 1466—
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| Posted: 24 Jul 2015 08:20 PM PDT from KingWorldNews:
An hour before the close, the Dow is still under 18,000 and down 126. The Transports are down 168 and hovering just above the critical 8,000 level. The Nasdaq is down 25 and holding just above the big number resistance of 5,000. Gold is down 4.8 to 1086.7 and silver is down 0.18 to 14.55. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 24 Jul 2015 07:40 PM PDT by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan:
But how do you prepare for the uncertainty of what's to come? Armstrong says you'd better have some cash on hand for short-term disruptions, just in case your financial institution shuts down like they did in Greece: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Paul Craig Roberts: The Eroding Character Of The American People Posted: 24 Jul 2015 07:25 PM PDT Submitted by Paul Craig Roberts,
Attorney John W. Whitehead opens a recent posting on his Rutherford Institute website with these words from a song by Bob Dylan. Why don’t all of us feel ashamed? Why only Bob Dylan? I wonder how many of Bob Dylan’s fans understand what he is telling them. American justice has nothing to do with innocence or guilt. It only has to do with the prosecutor’s conviction rate, which builds his political career. Considering the gullibility of the American people, American jurors are the last people to whom an innocent defendant should trust his fate. The jury will betray the innocent almost every time. As Lawrence Stratton and I show in our book (2000, 2008) there is no justice in America. We titled our book, “How the Law Was Lost.” It is a description of how the protective features in law that made law a shield of the innocent was transformed over time into a weapon in the hands of the government, a weapon used against the people. The loss of law as a shield occurred prior to 9/11, which “our representative government” used to construct a police state. The marketing department of our publisher did not appreciate our title and instead came up with “The Tyranny of Good Intentions.” We asked what this title meant. The marketing department answered that we showed that the war on crime, which gave us the abuses of RICO, the war on child abusers, which gave us show trials of total innocents that bested Joseph Stalin’s show trials of the heroes of the Bolshevik Revolution, and the war on drugs, which gave “Freedom and Democracy America” broken families and by far the highest incarceration rate in the world all resulted from good intentions to combat crime, to combat drugs, and to combat child abuse. The publisher’s title apparently succeeded, because 15 years later the book is still in print. It has sold enough copies over these years that, had the sales occurred upon publication would have made the book a “best seller.” The book, had it been a best seller, would have gained more attention, and perhaps law schools and bar associations could have used it to hold the police state at bay. Whitehead documents how hard a not guilty verdict is to come by for an innocent defendant. Even if the falsely accused defendant and his attorney survive the prosecutor’s pressure to negotiate a plea bargain and arrive at a trial, they are confronted with jurors who are unable to doubt prosecutors, police, or witnesses paid to lie against the innocent defendant. Jurors even convicted the few survivors of the Clinton regime’s assault on the Branch Davidians of Waco, the few who were not gassed, shot, or burned to death by US federal forces. This religious sect was demonized by Washington and the presstitute media as child abusers who were manufacturing automatic weapons while they raped children. The charges proved to be false, like Saddam Hussein’s “weapons of mass destruction,” and so forth, but only after all of the innocents were dead or in prison. The question is: why do Americans not only sit silently while the lives of innocents are destroyed, but also actually support the destruction of the lives of innocents? Why do Americans believe “official sources” despite the proven fact that “official sources” lie repeatedly and never tell the truth? The only conclusion that one can come to is that the American people have failed. We have failed Justice. We have failed Mercy. We have failed the US Constitution. We have failed Truth. We have failed Democracy and representative government. We have failed ourselves and humanity. We have failed the confidence that our Founding Fathers put in us. We have failed God. If we ever had the character that we are told we had, we have obviously lost it. Little, if anything, remains of the “American character.” Was the American character present in the torture prisons of Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo Bay, and hidden CIA torture dungeons where US military and CIA personnel provided photographic evidence of their delight in torturing and abusing prisoners? Official reports have concluded that along with torture went rape, sodomy, and murder. All of this was presided over by American psychologists with Ph.D. degrees. We see the same inhumanity in the American police who respond to women children, the elderly, the physically and mentally handicapped, with gratuitous violence. For no reason whatsoever, police murder, taser, beat, and abuse US citizens. Every day there are more reports, and despite the reports the violence goes on and on and on. Clearly, the police enjoy inflicting pain and death on citizens whom the police are supposed to serve and protect. There have always been bullies in the police force, but the wanton police violence of our time indicates a complete collapse of the American character. The failure of the American character has had tremendous and disastrous consequences for ourselves and for the world. At home Americans have a police state in which all Constitutional protections have vanished. Abroad, Iraq and Libya, two formerly prosperous countries, have been destroyed. Libya no longer exists as a country. One million dead Iraqis, four million displaced abroad, hundreds of thousands of orphans and birth defects from the American ordnance, and continuing ongoing violence from factions fighting over the remains. These facts are incontestable. Yet the United States Government claims to have brought “freedom and democracy” to Iraq. “Mission accomplished,” declared one of the mass murderers of the 21st century, George W. Bush. The question is: how can the US government make such an obviously false outrageous claim without being shouted down by the rest of the world and by its own population? Is the answer that good character has disappeared from the world? Or is the rest of the world too afraid to protest? Washington can force supposedly sovereign countries to acquiesce to its will or be cut off from the international payments mechanism that Washington controls, and/or be sanctioned, and/or be bombed, droned, or invaded, and/or be assassinated or overthrown in a coup. On the entire planet Earth there are only two countries capable of standing up to Washington, Russia and China, and neither wants to stand up if they can avoid it. For whatever the reasons, not only Americans but most of the world as well accommodate Washington’s evil and are thereby complicit in the evil. Those humans with a moral conscience are gradually being positioned by Washington and London as “domestic extremists” who might have to be rounded up and placed in detention centers. Examine the recent statements by General Wesley Clark and British Prime Minister Cameron and remember Janet Napolitano’s statement that the Department of Homeland Security has shifted its focus from terrorists to domestic extremists, an undefined and open-ended term. Americans with good character are being maneuvered into a position of helplessness. As John Whitehead makes clear, the American people cannot even prevent “their police,” paid by their tax payments, from murdering 3 Americans each day, and this is only the officially reported murders. The actual account is likely higher. What Whitehead describes and what I have noticed for many years is that the American people have lost, in addition to their own sense of truth and falsity, any sense of mercy and justice for other peoples. Americans accept no sense of responsibility for the millions of peoples that Washington has exterminated over the past two decades dating back to the second term of Clinton. Every one of the millions of deaths is based on a Washington lie. When Clinton’s Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, was asked if the Clinton’s regime’s sanctions, which had claimed the lives of 500,000 Iraqi children, were justified, she obviously expected no outrage from the American people when she replied in the affirmative. Americans need to face the facts. The loss of character means the loss of liberty and the transformation of government into a criminal enterprise. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Price Bottom - Key Reversal Day Posted: 24 Jul 2015 07:14 PM PDT
My grandfather actually said, "I don't mind it when they spit on me, it's when they rub it in that I get mad." That's how I felt watching silver and gold prices today. Here's the conundrum: Once upon a time the open outcry market on Comex was the only game in town after the London fixes. Several years ago Comex began offering the computerized Globex market after Comex' meager hours (8:30-1:30 Eastern), and silver and gold trade now around the world 24 hours a day. This year Comex ended the open-outcry floor. These changes make taking one number -- "the Comex settlement price" -- problematical. Does that really reflect the price, or was that where the traders manipulated it for the close? Everybody knows that "somehow" on options expiry day silver and GOLD PRICES miraculously slip, relieving options sellers of having to pay off on in the money options by making them out of the money. Ya'll write this down so I can remember it: Comex gold and silver futures contract options expire on four days from the end of the month, unless that's a Friday or before a holiday, when it's moved back a day earlier. That makes next Tuesday options expiry day. Now this would be a puzzle whether I suspected markets were manipulated or not. Which price is the most representative price, Comex close or End of Day? Today was a rare example of one gainsaying the other. Silver and GOLD PRICES opened lower in overnight trading. Silver hit a low about 9:00 at $14.43, bounced, then made a slightly lower low at $14.33 about 11:30. From there it climbed the rest of the day, but somehow or the other the Comex tape was painted with a LOWER close for silver, down 20.6 cents at $14.477 and a LOWER close for the gold price, down $8.40 at 1,085.60. These ain't minor differences. In the aftermarket the price of gold was trading $15 (yes) higher at 1,100.50. Silver was trading 24.3 cents higher at $14.72. Well, which is it? Which price is the "right" price?
So the end of day (EOD) charts I always show y'all will today plainly reveal key reversals. Here's gold on the right. Here's what I like about that chart. Not only does it show that first half of a key reversal, it also shows an oversold RSI become LESS oversold, and typically the low price occurs a day or so after the RSI low. The MACD also wants to curve up, and the rotten Rate of Change has turned up. Full stochastics are trying to turn up. Volume rose very strongly today, and was almost as high as that on Monday's plunge.
There's that first half key reversal today. Volume shot up nearly to Monday's level. The RSI was oversold only one day (20 July) and has crept up since. MACD needs only one good up day to turn it up. Rate of Change has already turned up, and full stochastics want to. Is all that an ironclad case for a price reversal? Not at all, but it does resemble previous big reversals. Price will tell on Monday whether that's the right interpretation or not.
Stocks opened the day bleeding and it turned out during the day it was an artery. Dow lost 163.39 (0.92%) to 17,568.53. Where does that put it? In negative territory for 215 by 415 points. Below the March, April, May, and June lows, but not yet July's (17,466). Below the 200 DMA (17,568.53), not to mention the 20 and 50 DMAs. MACD and RSI have turned down. All waypointers point down, and a close below 17,400 adds jet fuel to the fall. Y'all look for yourselves chart on the right.
I'd say they've turned down, but the S&P500 needs to cut through its 200 DMA to confirm that. I ain't a bit ashamed or embarrassed to show the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver charts. DiG shot up in response to Greece-relief, and has shot down just as fast. Closed the week at G$330.54 (15.99 oz) and falling.
US dollar index rose 12 basis points to 97.35. Correcting the previous rise. Might start rising again next week, but indicators are trying to turn down after it fell out of a rising wedge this week. Euro flaked again today, down 0.8% to $1.0978 on its way to par with the dollar. Yen rose 0.05% (does that really qualify as a rise?) to 80.76 cents/Y100 (Y123.82 = US$1). Is anybody watching? Y'all enjoy your weekend. Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Aussie Dollar Tests Long-Term Trendline As China Contagion Spreads Posted: 24 Jul 2015 06:50 PM PDT Last week, we asked "Is Australia the next Greece?" It appears, judging bu the collapse in the Aussie Dollar, that some - if not all - are starting to believe it's possible after last night's 15-month low in China Manufacturing PMI. As UBS previously noted, China's real GDP growth cycles have become an increasingly important driver of Australia's nominal GDP growth this last decade. With iron ore and coal prices plumbing new record lows, a Chinese (real) economy firing on perhaps 1 cyclinder, and equity investors reeling from China's collapse; perhaps the situation facing Australia is more like Greece than many want to admit. Australian consumers are more worried about the medium term outlook than at the peak of the financial crisis, and rightfully so...
As China plumbs new depths in manufacturing, just piling on Aussie's woes...
The Dollar is rising this morning but all eyes are on AUD as it tests a very long-term trendline...
h/t @RaoulGMI * * * As The Telegraph previously concluded, rather ominously,
Charts: Bloomberg | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Shanghai On Track For Record Year With 69 Tonnes Gold Withdrawn In Latest Week Posted: 24 Jul 2015 06:29 PM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Eurasian Big Bang: How China & Russia Are Running Rings Around Washington Posted: 24 Jul 2015 06:15 PM PDT Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted at TomDispatch.com, Let’s start with the geopolitical Big Bang you know nothing about, the one that occurred just two weeks ago. Here are its results: from now on, any possible future attack on Iran threatened by the Pentagon (in conjunction with NATO) would essentially be an assault on the planning of an interlocking set of organizations -- the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), the EEU (Eurasian Economic Union), the AIIB (the new Chinese-founded Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), and the NDB (the BRICS' New Development Bank) -- whose acronyms you’re unlikely to recognize either. Still, they represent an emerging new order in Eurasia. Tehran, Beijing, Moscow, Islamabad, and New Delhi have been actively establishing interlocking security guarantees. They have been simultaneously calling the Atlanticist bluff when it comes to the endless drumbeat of attention given to the flimsy meme of Iran’s "nuclear weapons program." And a few days before the Vienna nuclear negotiations finally culminated in an agreement, all of this came together at a twin BRICS/SCO summit in Ufa, Russia -- a place you’ve undoubtedly never heard of and a meeting that got next to no attention in the U.S. And yet sooner or later, these developments will ensure that the War Party in Washington and assorted neocons (as well as neoliberalcons) already breathing hard over the Iran deal will sweat bullets as their narratives about how the world works crumble. The Eurasian Silk Road With the Vienna deal, whose interminable build-up I had the dubious pleasure of following closely, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and his diplomatic team have pulled the near-impossible out of an extremely crumpled magician’s hat: an agreement that might actually end sanctions against their country from an asymmetric, largely manufactured conflict. Think of that meeting in Ufa, the capital of Russia’s Bashkortostan, as a preamble to the long-delayed agreement in Vienna. It caught the new dynamics of the Eurasian continent and signaled the future geopolitical Big Bangness of it all. At Ufa, from July 8th to 10th, the 7th BRICS summit and the 15th Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit overlapped just as a possible Vienna deal was devouring one deadline after another. Consider it a diplomatic masterstroke of Vladmir Putin’s Russia to have merged those two summits with an informal meeting of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Call it a soft power declaration of war against Washington’s imperial logic, one that would highlight the breadth and depth of an evolving Sino-Russian strategic partnership. Putting all those heads of state attending each of the meetings under one roof, Moscow offered a vision of an emerging, coordinated geopolitical structure anchored in Eurasian integration. Thus, the importance of Iran: no matter what happens post-Vienna, Iran will be a vital hub/node/crossroads in Eurasia for this new structure. If you read the declaration that came out of the BRICS summit, one detail should strike you: the austerity-ridden European Union (EU) is barely mentioned. And that’s not an oversight. From the point of view of the leaders of key BRICS nations, they are offering a new approach to Eurasia, the very opposite of the language of sanctions. Here are just a few examples of the dizzying activity that took place at Ufa, all of it ignored by the American mainstream media. In their meetings, President Putin, China's President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi worked in a practical way to advance what is essentially a Chinese vision of a future Eurasia knit together by a series of interlocking “new Silk Roads.” Modi approved more Chinese investment in his country, while Xi and Modi together pledged to work to solve the joint border issues that have dogged their countries and, in at least one case, led to war.
You won’t be surprised to learn that both the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the NDB are headquartered in China and will work to complement each other’s efforts. At the same time, Russia’s foreign investment arm, the Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), signed a memorandum of understanding with funds from other BRICS countries and so launched an informal investment consortium in which China’s Silk Road Fund and India’s Infrastructure Development Finance Company will be key partners. Full Spectrum Transportation Dominance On the ground level, this should be thought of as part of the New Great Game in Eurasia. Its flip side is the Trans-Pacific Partnership in the Pacific and the Atlantic version of the same, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, both of which Washington is trying to advance to maintain U.S. global economic dominance. The question these conflicting plans raise is how to integrate trade and commerce across that vast region. From the Chinese and Russian perspectives, Eurasia is to be integrated via a complex network of superhighways, high-speed rail lines, ports, airports, pipelines, and fiber optic cables. By land, sea, and air, the resulting New Silk Roads are meant to create an economic version of the Pentagon’s doctrine of “Full Spectrum Dominance” -- a vision that already has Chinese corporate executives crisscrossing Eurasia sealing infrastructure deals. For Beijing -- back to a 7% growth rate in the second quarter of 2015 despite a recent near-panic on the country’s stock markets -- it makes perfect economic sense: as labor costs rise, production will be relocated from the country’s Eastern seaboard to its cheaper Western reaches, while the natural outlets for the production of just about everything will be those parallel and interlocking “belts” of the new Silk Roads. Meanwhile, Russia is pushing to modernize and diversify its energy-exploitation-dependent economy. Among other things, its leaders hope that the mix of those developing Silk Roads and the tying together of the Eurasian Economic Union -- Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan -- will translate into myriad transportation and construction projects for which the country’s industrial and engineering know-how will prove crucial. As the EEU has begun establishing free trade zones with India, Iran, Vietnam, Egypt, and Latin America’s Mercosur bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela), the initial stages of this integration process already reach beyond Eurasia. Meanwhile, the SCO, which began as little more than a security forum, is expanding and moving into the field of economic cooperation. Its countries, especially four Central Asian “stans” (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan) will rely ever more on the Chinese-driven Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the NDB. At Ufa, India and Pakistan finalized an upgrading process in which they have moved from observers to members of the SCO. This makes it an alternative G8. In the meantime, when it comes to embattled Afghanistan, the BRICS nations and the SCO have now called upon “the armed opposition to disarm, accept the Constitution of Afghanistan, and cut ties with Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and other terrorist organizations.” Translation: within the framework of Afghan national unity, the organization would accept the Taliban as part of a future government. Their hopes, with the integration of the region in mind, would be for a future stable Afghanistan able to absorb more Chinese, Russian, Indian, and Iranian investment, and the construction -- finally! -- of a long-planned, $10 billion, 1,420-kilometer-long Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline that would benefit those energy-hungry new SCO members, Pakistan and India. (They would each receive 42% of the gas, the remaining 16% going to Afghanistan.) Central Asia is, at the moment, geographic ground zero for the convergence of the economic urges of China, Russia, and India. It was no happenstance that, on his way to Ufa, Prime Minister Modi stopped off in Central Asia. Like the Chinese leadership in Beijing, Moscow looks forward (as a recent document puts it) to the “interpenetration and integration of the EEU and the Silk Road Economic Belt” into a “Greater Eurasia” and a “steady, developing, safe common neighborhood” for both Russia and China. And don’t forget Iran. In early 2016, once economic sanctions are fully lifted, it is expected to join the SCO, turning it into a G9. As its foreign minister, Javad Zarif, made clear recently to Russia's Channel 1 television, Tehran considers the two countries strategic partners. "Russia,” he said, “has been the most important participant in Iran's nuclear program and it will continue under the current agreement to be Iran's major nuclear partner." The same will, he added, be true when it comes to “oil and gas cooperation,” given the shared interest of those two energy-rich nations in “maintaining stability in global market prices." Got Corridor, Will Travel Across Eurasia, BRICS nations are moving on integration projects. A developing Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic corridor is a typical example. It is now being reconfigured as a multilane highway between India and China. Meanwhile, Iran and Russia are developing a transportation corridor from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to the Caspian Sea and the Volga River. Azerbaijan will be connected to the Caspian part of this corridor, while India is planning to use Iran’s southern ports to improve its access to Russia and Central Asia. Now, add in a maritime corridor that will stretch from the Indian city of Mumbai to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas and then on to the southern Russian city of Astrakhan. And this just scratches the surface of the planning underway. Years ago, Vladimir Putin suggested that there could be a “Greater Europe” stretching from Lisbon, Portugal, on the Atlantic to the Russian city of Vladivostok on the Pacific. The EU, under Washington’s thumb, ignored him. Then the Chinese started dreaming about and planning new Silk Roads that would, in reverse Marco Polo fashion, extend from Shanghai to Venice (and then on to Berlin). Thanks to a set of cross-pollinating political institutions, investment funds, development banks, financial systems, and infrastructure projects that, to date, remain largely under Washington’s radar, a free-trade Eurasian heartland is being born. It will someday link China and Russia to Europe, Southwest Asia, and even Africa. It promises to be an astounding development. Keep your eyes, if you can, on the accumulating facts on the ground, even if they are rarely covered in the American media. They represent the New Great -- emphasis on that word -- Game in Eurasia. Location, Location, Location Tehran is now deeply invested in strengthening its connections to this new Eurasia and the man to watch on this score is Ali Akbar Velayati. He is the head of Iran's Center for Strategic Research and senior foreign policy adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Velayati stresses that security in Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia, and the Caucasus hinges on the further enhancement of a Beijing-Moscow-Tehran triple entente. As he knows, geo-strategically Iran is all about location, location, location. That country offers the best access to open seas in the region apart from Russia and is the only obvious east-west/north-south crossroads for trade from the Central Asian “stans.” Little wonder then that Iran will soon be an SCO member, even as its “partnership” with Russia is certain to evolve. Its energy resources are already crucial to and considered a matter of national security for China and, in the thinking of that country’s leadership, Iran also fulfills a key role as a hub in those Silk Roads they are planning. That growing web of literal roads, rail lines, and energy pipelines, as TomDispatch has previously reported, represents Beijing’s response to the Obama administration’s announced “pivot to Asia” and the U.S. Navy’s urge to meddle in the South China Sea. Beijing is choosing to project power via a vast set of infrastructure projects, especially high-speed rail lines that will reach from its eastern seaboard deep into Eurasia. In this fashion, the Chinese-built railway from Urumqi in Xinjiang Province to Almaty in Kazakhstan will undoubtedly someday be extended to Iran and traverse that country on its way to the Persian Gulf. A New World for Pentagon Planners At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last month, Vladimir Putin told PBS's Charlie Rose that Moscow and Beijing had always wanted a genuine partnership with the United States, but were spurned by Washington. Hats off, then, to the “leadership” of the Obama administration. Somehow, it has managed to bring together two former geopolitical rivals, while solidifying their pan-Eurasian grand strategy. Even the recent deal with Iran in Vienna is unlikely -- especially given the war hawks in Congress -- to truly end Washington’s 36-year-long Great Wall of Mistrust with Iran. Instead, the odds are that Iran, freed from sanctions, will indeed be absorbed into the Sino-Russian project to integrate Eurasia, which leads us to the spectacle of Washington’s warriors, unable to act effectively, yet screaming like banshees. NATO's supreme commander Dr. Strangelove, sorry, American General Philip Breedlove, insists that the West must create a rapid-reaction force -- online -- to counteract Russia's "false narratives.” Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter claims to be seriously considering unilaterally redeploying nuclear-capable missiles in Europe. The nominee to head the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Marine Commandant Joseph Dunford, recently directly labeled Russia America’s true “existential threat”; Air Force General Paul Selva, nominated to be the new vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, seconded that assessment, using the same phrase and putting Russia, China and Iran, in that order, as more threatening than the Islamic State (ISIS). In the meantime, Republican presidential candidates and a bevy of congressional war hawks simply shout and fume when it comes to both the Iranian deal and the Russians. In response to the Ukrainian situation and the “threat” of a resurgent Russia (behind which stands a resurgent China), a Washington-centric militarization of Europe is proceeding apace. NATO is now reportedly obsessed with what’s being called “strategy rethink” -- as in drawing up detailed futuristic war scenarios on European soil. As economist Michael Hudson has pointed out, even financial politics are becoming militarized and linked to NATO’s new Cold War 2.0. In its latest National Military Strategy, the Pentagon suggests that the risk of an American war with another nation (as opposed to terror outfits), while low, is “growing” and identifies four nations as “threats”: North Korea, a case apart, and predictably the three nations that form the new Eurasian core: Russia, China, and Iran. They are depicted in the document as “revisionist states,” openly defying what the Pentagon identifies as “international security and stability”; that is, the distinctly un-level playing field created by globalized, exclusionary, turbo-charged casino capitalism and Washington's brand of militarism. The Pentagon, of course, does not do diplomacy. Seemingly unaware of the Vienna negotiations, it continued to accuse Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons. And that “military option” against Iran is never off the table. So consider it the Mother of All Blockbusters to watch how the Pentagon and the war hawks in Congress will react to the post-Vienna and -- though it was barely noticed in Washington -- the post-Ufa environment, especially under a new White House tenant in 2017. It will be a spectacle. Count on it. Will the next version of Washington try to make it up to “lost” Russia or send in the troops? Will it contain China or the “caliphate” of ISIS? Will it work with Iran to fight ISIS or spurn it? Will it truly pivot to Asia for good and ditch the Middle East or vice-versa? Or | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US Mint Sells Most Physical Gold In Two Years On Same Day Gold Price Hits Five Year Low Posted: 24 Jul 2015 05:49 PM PDT Three weeks ago, we reported that the US Mint had run out of physical silver on the same day silver plunged to its lowest price in 2015. This happened just days after the UK Royal mint announced that "during June, we experienced twice the expected demand for Sovereign bullion coins from our customers based in Greece." While the surge in physical demand clearly did not explain the liquidation in the price of "paper" silver, we are still hoping that the OCC writes us back with an explanation why this happened, and maybe it can clarify also just how much more silver the mint will sell before it runs out of silver in inventory again as it did 20 days ago. We bring all of this up because just like 20 days ago when unstoppable demand for physical silver met an immovable paper silver selling object (with the "object" for now winning), so earlier today the price of gold tumbled to the lowest level in 5 years, some $1,072 per ounce, before it staged a dramatic comeback closing just under $1,100...
... thanks in no small part to the illegal spoofing we noted earlier.
And lo and behold, just like in the case of silver three weeks ago, today's gold liquidation was not due to selling of physical metal. In fact, quite the contrary: according to the US mint, so far in July the mint has sold a whopping 143,000 ounces of physical gold - the most in over two years, or since April of 2013 - even as the price of gold briefly slid to the lowest level in 5 years.
In other words, retail investors, who have bought over 7 million ounces of gold since January 2008 or the one third the total "held" currently by the GLD ETF, were eagerly buying up all the physical they could get their hands on, or said otherwise, "taking delivery" at the prevailing price, a process which practically assures that the US Mint will be out of gold in the next few days. We wonder when some central banks, the bulk of whose gold remains in "deliverable" format, decide to do the same? A few more down days in the stock market, coupled with a record high hedge fund short interest, and we just may get our answer. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The End Of The Supercycle? Commodity "Capitulation" Arrives Posted: 24 Jul 2015 05:49 PM PDT In a note by BofA's Michael Hartnett titled "When Supercycles end", the bank looks at the latest EPFR fund flows and concludes that the wave of commodity "capitulation" revulsion selling has finally arrived. Specifically, looking at fund flows, the most recent week saw the biggest outflow from precious metals in four months and emerging market fund outflows reaching $10 billion over the last two weeks leading Hartnett to conclude that "capitulation is beginning in EM/resources/ commodities." This is what the most recent flows looked like:
The fund flow details indicate a "Great Rotation" out of commodities, Emerging Markets and, curiously, the US, and into bonds and continued flows into Europe, which has now seen 10 straight weeks of inflows with the latest one of $6.0 billion also the largest in the past 4 months. Inflows into fixed income have been across the board:
While in equities it has been a tale of two flow directions: out of the US and into Europe (and to a lesser extent Japan):
By sector, inflows to secular growth areas of healthcare ($1.3bn) & technology ($0.4bn) To be sure, the best example of the paper flow capitulation is where else but gold, where in the past week algo, 1% of total gold/silver AUM has been wihdrawn!
But while gold has seen its share of pounding in the past 5 years, it is modest compared to the revulsion experienced by companies that have economic exposure to Emerging Markets. As BofA notes "US companies with high economic exposure to Emerging Markets at close to 13-year lows vs broad US equities."
The last chart may also explains why Ray Dalio, after largely ignoring the bursting of China's three bubbles (as shown here previously) finally threw in the towel, became bearish on China and admitted that "There Are No Safe Places Left To Invest." It also explains why increasingly fewer are "buying the dip" across markets despite one-off superstars like GOOG and AMZN. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jim Grant On Gold's Liquidation Sale: A "Vexing But Wonderful Opportunity" Posted: 24 Jul 2015 05:30 PM PDT Don’t tell Jim Grant, the publisher of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, that gold is a hedge. The author and publisher said the metal is much more dynamic; providing a trifecta of price, value and sentiment, and investors should have exposure to it.
Grant added that it could be that it all works out, albeit a very “low probability.”
Gold prices are on track for its longest run of losses since 1996. After reaching five-year lows this week, the metal was relatively quieter on Thursday with prices slightly rebounding on some bargain hunting in the spot market. Kitco’s spot gold was last up $0.60 at $1094.60 an ounce.
He explained that no one knows the bottom for the metal and that should not be the sole focus.
On the topic of U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes, Grant said the central bank is in a hurry to raise rates.
Grant said he likes owning physical gold particularly South African Kruggerands. He added he is also the owner of “too many gold mining shares” for which he has, “a great deal of worry for the present but a great deal of conviction for the future.” Mining stocks have suffered even more since lower gold prices means less revenue per ounce of the metal for producers. The Market Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX), which consists of stocks of gold-mining companies, was down $1.70, or 11%, to $13.72 on Thursday. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Casino-fication Of Markets Is Pervasive & Permanent Posted: 24 Jul 2015 05:05 PM PDT Submitted by Ben Hunt via Salient Partners Epsilon Theory blog, My favorite scene from Mad Men is the picnic scene from Season 2. The Draper family enjoys a lovely picnic at some park, and at the conclusion of the meal Don tosses his beer cans into the bushes and Betty just flicks the blanket and leaves all the trash right there on the grass. Shocking, right? I know this is impossible for anyone under the age of 30 to believe, but this is EXACTLY what picnics were like in the 1960’s, even if a bit over the top in typical Draper fashion. There was no widespread concept of littering, much less recycling and all the other green concepts that are second nature to my kids. I mean … if I even thought about Draper-level littering at a Hunt picnic today my children would consider it to be an act of rank betrayal and sheer evil. I’d be disowned before they called the police and had me arrested.  Like many of us who were children in a Mad Men world, I can remember the moment when littering became a “thing”, with the 1971 public service commercial of an American Indian (actually an Italian actor) shedding a tear at the sight of all the trash blighting his native land. Powerful stuff, and a wonderful example of the way in which Narrative construction can change the fundamental ways our society sees the world, setting in motion behaviors that are as second nature to our children as they were unthinkable to our parents. It’s barely noticeable as it’s happening, but one day you wake up and it’s hard to remember that there was a time when you didn’t believe that littering was a crime against humanity.  This dynamic of change in meaning is rare, but it takes place more often than you might think. Dueling and smoking are easy examples. Slavery is, too. Myths and legends turned into nursery rhymes and fairy tales is one of my favorite examples, as is compulsory public education … a concept that didn’t exist until the Prussian government invented it to generate politically indoctrinated soldiers who could read a training manual. Occasionally – and only when political systems undergo the existential stress of potential collapse – this dynamic of change impacts the meaning of the Market itself, and I think that’s exactly what’s taking place today. Through the magic of Narrative construction, capital markets are being transformed into political utilities. It’s not a unique occurrence. The last time investors lived through this sort of change in what the market means was the 1930s, and it’s useful to examine that decade’s events more closely, in a history-rhyming sort of way. What’s less useful, I think, is to spend our time arguing about whether this transformation in market meaning is a good thing or a bad thing. It is what it is, and the last thing I want to be is a modern day version of one of those grumpy old men who railed about how Roosevelt was really the Anti-Christ. What I will say, though (and I promise this will be my last indication of moral tsk-tsking, for this note anyway), is that I have a newfound appreciation for why they were grumpy old men, and I feel keenly a sense of loss for the experience of markets that I suspect my children will never enjoy as I have. I suspect they will never suffer in their experience of markets as I have, either, but there’s a loss in that, as well. It’s totally understandable why status quo political interests would seek to transform hurly-burly capital markets into a stable inflation-generation utility, as summed up in the following two McKinsey charts.  
Both of these charts can be found in the February 2015 McKinsey paper, “Debt and (not much) deleveraging”, well worth your time to peruse. Keep in mind that the data used here is from Q2 2014, back when Greece was still “fixed”, the Fed had not proclaimed its tightening bias, and China was still slowing gracefully. All of these numbers are worse today, not better. So what do the numbers tell us? Two things.
The intractable problem with these inconvenient facts is that there are only three ways to get out from under a massive debt. You can grow your way out, you can inflate your way out, or you can shrink your way out through austerity and/or assignment of losses. Door #1 is now effectively impossible for most developed economies. Door #3 is unacceptable to any status quo regime. So that leaves Door #2. The ONLY way forward is inflation, so that’s what it’s going to be. There is no Plan B. What sort of inflation is most amenable to modern political influence? Financial asset inflation, by a wide margin. Inflation in the real economy depends on real investment decisions by real businesses, and just as in the 1930s most business decision makers are sitting this one out, thank you very much. Or just as in the 1930s they’re “investing” in stock buy-backs and earnings margin improvement, which doesn’t help real world inflation at all. What political institutions are most capable of promoting inflation? Central banks, again by a wide margin. Just as in the 1930s, almost every developed economy in the world has a highly polarized electorate and an equally polarized legislature. The executive may be willing, but the government is weak. Far better to wage the inflation wars from within the non-elected walls of the Eccles Building rather than the White House. Now … how to wage that inflation war with the proper Narrative armament? No one wants inflation in the sense of “runaway inflation”, to use the phrasing of doomsayers everywhere. In fact, unless you’re speaking apparatchik to apparatchik, you don’t want to use the word “inflation” at all. It’s just like Roosevelt essentially banning the word “regulation” from his Cabinet’s vocabulary. Don’t call it “regulation”. Call it “cooperation”, Roosevelt said, and even the grumpy old men will applaud. So today China calls it a “market malfunction” when their stock market deflates sharply (of course, inflating sharply is just fine). Better fix that malfunctioning machine! How can you argue with that language? But at least the political mandarins in the East are more authentic with their words than the political mandarins in the West. Here we now call market deflation by the sobriquet “volatility”, as in “major market indices suffered from volatility today, down almost one-half of one percent”, where a down day is treated as something akin to the common cold, a temporary illness with symptoms that we can shrug off with an aspirin or two. You can’t be in favor of volatility, surely. It’s a bad thing, almost on a par with littering. No, we want good things and good words, like “wealth effect” and “accommodation” and “stability” and “price appreciation”. As President Snow says in reference to The Hunger Games version of a political utility, “may the odds be always in your favor”. Who doesn’t want that? There are two problems with the odds being always in your favor.
We’ve been down this road before in the 1930s. But the historical rhyming I see is not so much in the New Deal policies that directly impacted the stock market as it is in the policies that established a real-life utility, the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). That’s because the nature of the existential threat posed by overwhelming debt to the US political system was different in the 1930s than it is today. When FDR took office, the flash point of that systemic threat was the labor market, not the capital market. Sure, the stock market took its hits in the Great Depression, but the relevance of the stock market to either the overall economic health of the country or – more importantly to FDR – his ability to remain in office was dwarfed by the relevance of the labor market. It’s another one of those changes in meaning that seems bizarre to the modern eye or ear. What, you mean there wasn’t 24/7 coverage of financial markets in 1932? You mean that most Americans didn’t really know what a stock certificate was, much less own one? To succeed politically, Roosevelt had to change the meaning of the labor market, not the capital market, and that’s exactly what he did with the creation of the TVA. The TVA was only one effort in an alphabet soup of New Deal policies that FDR rammed through in his first Administration to change the popular conception of what the labor market meant to Americans. Other famous initiatives included the National Recovery administration (NRA) and the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), and the common thread in all of these efforts was a VERY active Narrative management embedded in their process from the outset, with photographers and journalists hired by the White House to document the “success” of the programs. Everything I write in Epsilon Theory about today’s pervasive Narrative construction also took place in the 1930s, in amazingly similar venues and formats, down to the specific words used. The Narrative effort worked. Not necessarily in the permanence of the institutions FDR established (the Supreme Court declared the NRA unconstitutional in 1935, and the CCC faded into obscurity with the outbreak of World War II), but in the complete reshaping of what the labor market meant to Americans and what government’s proper role within the labor market should be. Yes, there were important things lost in FDR’s political achievements (and plenty of grumpy old men to complain about that), but let’s not forget that he was re-elected THREE times on the back of these labor market policies. If that’s not winning, I don’t know what is. And if you don’t think that lesson from history hasn’t been absorbed by both Clinton™ and Bush™, you’re living in a different world than I am. One last point on the TVA. It’s still around today as a very powerful and oddly beloved institution, and I think its lasting political success is due in large part to the fact that it – unlike the other alphabet soup institutions – was explicitly a utility. Who doesn’t like the stability of a utility in the midst of vast inequality? Who doesn’t like the odds being ever in their favor? The more that I see today’s policy impact on markets described in utility-like terms – words like “stability” and notions like “volatility is bad and a thing to be fixed” – the more confident I am that the TVA political experience of the 1930s is coming soon to the capital markets of today. Scratch that. It’s already here. So, Ben, let’s assume you’re right and that current events are rhyming with the historical events of the last time the world wrestled with an overwhelming debt load. Let’s assume that a politically popular shift in the meaning of markets to cement its public utility function is taking shape and won’t reverse itself without a political shock of enormous proportions. What’s an investor or allocator to do, other than become a grumpy old man? Look, the hardest thing in the world is to recognize structural change when you’re embedded in the structure. If reading Epsilon Theory has given you a new set of lenses to see the relationship between State and Market, then you’ve already done the heavy lifting. From here, it’s a matter of applying that open-eyed perspective to your portfolio, not of buying this or selling that! Everyone will be different in their particular application, but I think everyone should have three basic goals:
Put simply, it’s time for some good new thinking on some good old ideas like diversification. It’s time to recognize the world as it is rather than lose ourselves in nostalgia for the world that was. Most of all, it’s time to call things by their proper names and stop demonizing words like “leverage” and “volatility”. These are tools, for god’s sake, neither good nor bad in and of themselves, and they’re tools we are all going to need to learn how to use if we want to be survivors in the Golden Age of the Central Banker. It’s time to get to work. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| It Cost The Koch Brothers Only $299,000 To Block Labeling Of Genetically Modified Foods Posted: 24 Jul 2015 04:29 PM PDT In what may have been the most underreported event overnight, the House quietly passed legislation that would keep states from issuing mandatory labeling laws for foods that contain genetically modified organisms, often called GMOs. The Safe and Accurate Food Labeling Act of 2015, as the law is formally known, passed 275-150, creating a federal standard for the voluntary labeling of foods with GMO ingredients. And since clearly nobody wants to advertise they are using GMOs in their food, the number of "volunteers" will be precisely zero. As the Hill reports, Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-Kan.), who authored the bill, called mandatory labeling laws — which have already passed in Vermont, Connecticut and Maine — unnecessarily costly given that GMOs have been deemed safe by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). "Precisely zero pieces of credible evidence have been presented that foods produced with biotechnology pose any risk to our health and safety," Pompeo said. "We should not raise prices on consumers based on the wishes of a handful of activists." Well, sure. Then there is the curious case of a lobbyist who back in March proclaimed that Monstanto's weedkiller "won't hurt you", only to promptly refuse drinking it on live it adding "I'm not stupid." Somehow we doubt Mike Pompeo is stupid either, which is why he will use all his hard-earned lobby dollars to only purchase organic foods which do not have GMO ingredients, and which happen to be a premium food category, precisely for that reason. Which makes Pompeo's statement even odder, considering the prices of non-GMO foods are already substantially higher. And while a minority was not willing to trade off healthy food for higher food prices, the victorious majority claimed a patchwork of labeling laws at the state level would drive up food costs.
Actually, where it would hurt manufacturers would be in the public's revulsion to eating foods clearly labelled as being genetically modified, leading to a collapse in sales in this high margin food category, and forcing even higher non-GMO prices. Outcomes that would lead to a dramatic erosion in shareholder value for the owners of those companies who stood to lose the most should the Labeling act not pass in its current form. Owners such as the Koch Brothers and Monsanto. Last night's passage of the anti-labeling law was the culmination of a very long and tedious process, one which started well over a year ago. In fact, as Andrea Germanos recalls, it all started last April, when in a move slammed as sealing "an unholy alliance between Monsanto and Koch Industries," a Kansas congressman submitted legislation that would ban state-level GMO labeling laws. Called the Safe and Accurate Food Labeling Act of 2014, the industry-supported legislation sponsored by Republican Rep. Mike Pompeo would "amend the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act with respect to food produced from, containing, or consisting of a bioengineered organism, the labeling of natural foods, and for other purposes." At least between its 2014 name and the final 2015 version Pompeo and his backers added "Safe" to the front just in case the irony was lost on someone. Which brings us to the biggest winners from this law, and how Rep. Pompeo made a few very rich people even richer. Starting with the Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA). According to The Center for Food Safety: "Koch Industries' subsidiary, Georgia-Pacific, is a member of the Grocery Manufacturers Association, which donated more than $7 million against the recent Washington State ballot initiative to label GE foods. Monsanto, another GMA member, was the single largest contributor to that campaign. Between Washington State and California, Monsanto, GMA (including Georgia-Pacific), and others, have contributed over $67 million to keep consumers in the dark about GE foods." Others quickly jumped onboard, especially those who would reap the biggest incremental profits such as biotech companies, and now the GMA and other industry groups like the Biotechnology Industry Organization are cheering Pompeo's legislation. At the time, many were livid that a full-court press by a few corporations and even fewer billionaires would keep Americans in the dark as to the genetic content of the food they eat:
Well, today the unholy alliance won, and the GMA was delighted:
Finally, the question everyone is dying to get the answer to: how much did it cost the Koch Brothers to purchase Mike Pompeo and his bipartisan congressional peers, both republicans and democrats, and pass a law that would save the company billions in profits?
Which is why the stock market with its annual return of 7% is for chumps. If you want to make the kinds of quadruple digit returns on investment, you better buy yourself a congressman. As for the general American population, well: your food may be every so slightly more mutated, but the good news is that it will remain as cheap and unhealthy as always. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $1.99 per pound Filet Mignon …and War! Posted: 24 Jul 2015 03:31 PM PDT Dear CIGAs, After planning to take this week off for a little rest, market gyrations have changed the plan. Initially next week I was going to pen a piece titled “Truth, Justice and no longer the American way”. This will now wait a bit. This past Sunday night and Monday’s action in gold needs to... Read more » The post $1.99 per pound Filet Mignon …and War! appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| World Gold Council dismisses gold price plunge Posted: 24 Jul 2015 02:32 PM PDT 5:30p ET Friday, July 24, 2015 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: The World Gold Council yesterday published a fairly involved statement responding to this week's attack on the gold market, acknowledging the suspiciousness of the trading that began the attack last Sunday night but dismissing it as the doings of speculators and emphasizing what the council considers the favorable fundamentals for gold, as if fundamentals might prevail any time soon against surreptitious trading by central banks. The council's statement is posted in PDF format at GATA's Internet site here: http://www.gata.org/files/WorldGoldCouncilStatement-07-23-2015.pdf CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT We Are Amid the Biggest Financial Bubble in History; With GoldCore you can own allocated -- and most importantly -- segregated coins and bars in Switzerland, Singapore, and Hong Kong. Switzerland, Singapore, and Hong Kong remain extremely safe jurisdictions for storing bullion. Avoid exchange-traded funds and digital gold providers where you are a price taker. Ensure that you are outright legal owner of your bullion. If you do not own segregated bullion that you can visit, inspect, and take delivery of, you are exposed. Crucial guides to storage in Singapore and Switzerland can be read here: http://info.goldcore.com/essential-guide-to-storing-gold-in-singapore http://info.goldcore.com/essential-guide-to-storing-gold-in-switzerland GoldCore does not report transactions to any authority. Safety, privacy, and confidentiality are paramount when we are entrusted with storage of our clients' precious metals. Email the GoldCore team at info@goldcore.com or call our trading desk: UK: +44(0)203-086-9200. U.S.: +1-302-635-1160. International: +353(0)1-632-5010. Visit us at: http://www.goldcore.com Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference http://noic2015.eventbrite.com/?aff=gata The Silver Summit and Resource Expo 2015 http://cambridgehouse.com/event/50/the-silver-summit-and-resource-expo-2... Support GATA by purchasing recordings of the proceedings of the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference: https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/2014-av-powell Or by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit:
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| Rickards: “Euro Creators Want to Force Common Fiscal Control” Posted: 24 Jul 2015 01:46 PM PDT This post Rickards: “Euro Creators Want to Force Common Fiscal Control” appeared first on Daily Reckoning. The Greek crisis is no accident, says Jim Rickards, but is part of a long-running plan to bring Europe under central control. Jim was general council at Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that made massively levered bets in the late 90's and eventually went south, exposing banks to over $1 trillion in potential losses. He was involved in negotiating a bailout in the aftermath. The CIA has called on Jim to help investigate how stock markets might indicate impending threats. He's the author of Currency Wars and The Death of Money, and will be attending the Sprott-Stansberry Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium – which begins next week. Jim has a new book, The Big Drop, available only to subscribers of his paid newsletter. You can find out more about it here. What can Jim tell us about the Eurozone crisis and the outcome of Greece's bailout talks? Henry Bonner: Jim, you were personally involved in negotiating the bailout of Long-Term Capital Management. Do you have any insights on the recent talks between Greece and the European Central Bank? Jim Rickards: Yes, in all of these huge financial crises – whenever you are one of the responsible parties or on a team trying to negotiate a bailout – they all have certain things in common. Of course, the amounts, the creditors, and the borrowers vary from case to case. Whether it was the bailout of LTCM in 1998, the rescue of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns or AIG in 2008, or the bailout of Greece in 2015, there are particularities but they all have similar dynamics. Part of the dynamic is that it's very, very difficult. People tend to work around the clock. Nerves get frayed. Tempers get short. But why do they keep going? Generally, the consequences of failure are much greater than the unpleasantness of powering through. It's difficult, but you're very cognizant of the fact that something catastrophic is waiting right around the corner. In 1998, at LTCM it was very clear. The Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin later testified that markets around the world would have collapsed. I think that the same was true last Sunday night when Eurozone leaders met to bail out Greece. Prime Minister Tsipras, Angela Merkel, and President Fraçois Hollande of France were up all night, basically negotiating for 24 hours. Everyone is aware that if the negotiations had failed, it would have been a catastrophic outcome. I definitely see some similarities and it brings back some memories. Do you think it's likely the deal made on Greece will end the crisis? Or is this likely to continue until Greece eventually wipes out its debts? Well, it's very clear that even though the situation is resolved for the time being, they will return to negotiations and discussions. The point is that, just looking at the maturity schedule of Greek debt, it was very apparent a year ago that July 2015 was going to be a critical month. There were large maturities coming due to the European Central Bank and the IMF, and they just didn't have the money. Now, the European Central Bank has re-opened lending to the Central Bank of Greece. That enables it to lend money out to Greek banks and allows those banks to re-open. Things are stabilized for now, but it's not over. There are going to be more maturities coming due in the future. Still, they have about a year of breathing room now. What they want to do is to come up with a more permanent solution so that they don't have to do this again. Every time we go through this, there is some risk that negotiations will fall apart, that Greece will leave the Eurozone, that markets will begin to suspect other countries of wanting to leave the Eurozone as well, and the whole European project will begin to unravel. So they want to avoid getting close to that as much as they can. So, what is the long-term solution now? Greece does not have to pay off all of its debts. You don't have to pay off all of your debts; you just have to make your debts sustainable. Sustainability means that your economy is growing faster than the rate of interest. If your debts are constant and your income is going up, then you're in better shape financially. But if your debts are growing and your income is going down, you're probably going to end up in bankruptcy. So, it's not a matter of having to pay off your whole debt. It's a matter of making it sustainable relative to your growth. Right now, it's not sustainable, but there are a couple of ways out of that. One way is to grow your way out of it, which is what Germany is trying to push. People call it austerity, but they're really trying to cause a reform of labor markets, regulations, taxes, and so forth to make their economy more appealing. That's an opportunity to attract more capital and bring about a higher-growth environment. Another way to do it, which probably will be necessary, is to write off some of the debt. The IMF has said that they don't want to take any losses. The ECB has said they don't want to take any losses. That means that the losses would have to fall on the other lenders of the Eurozone. Whether or not you have the financial wherewithal to do it, it becomes a political issue. Workers in Germany say: 'Why should we be paying for Greek pensions?' What I suspect is that the ECB will use the next year to try and resolve Greece in a way that makes it sustainable. Do you see the current Greek crisis as a sign of mismanagement of the Eurozone overall? Is there some flaw in the common currency system, or with having a European central bank? Well, I wouldn't call it mismanagement. I would say that it's a process that has some difficulties. To be more specific, people point to this 'flaw,' saying 'How can you have a common currency with a central bank on the one hand, but have separate finance ministries and fiscal policies on the other? How can you have one central bank and one currency when you've got 19 different policies? 'Some countries could be prudent and run surpluses. Other countries could be profligate and accumulate deficits. It's one thing to be profligate if you can print the money – the United States does that – but it's another thing if you want to be profligate and you can't print the money. And that's how you end up like Greece.' So the question is, well, 'were they stupid? Why didn't they think of that?' Well let's go back to the 1990's, when all this was being worked on. They signed the treaty in 1992 but the Euro itself was not officially launched until 2000. So it really took 8 years to design this system and they had a lot of smart people involved. I knew some of them. So the point is that the people designing it understood that there was a flaw. But they decided to go along with it, knowing that there would probably be a crisis. And the crisis would be a great catalyst to force the other half of their project to get done. The prospect of a situation like Greece happening was always known. There was the idea that it would be a 'forcing strategy' for a unified fiscal policy. There was no appetite in 1992 for a unified fiscal policy. There was appetite for a common currency, though. So, they thought, 'let's get one foot in the water and then figure out how to get the other foot in.' The weakness was known from the start, and the theory was that you could use that to potentially force everyone into a unified fiscal policy. We're getting closer to that now. Greece now has to run its government according to German dictates. Greece has already outsourced its monetary policy to the European Central Bank, and now it's sort of outsourced its fiscal policy to the German finance ministry. So you're on a path to unified fiscal policy and ultimately the Eurobonds – bonds backed by full strength and credit of not just any one country but the entire Eurozone. Germany did not want to unify the bond market until they got fiscal discipline across the board. So, rather than call it a flaw or mismanagement, I'd call it a multistep process where part of the process was done but some of the process was still occurring. So we're on that path, but it's a little bit choppier than a lot of people expected. What is the most important issue for the world economy that you're seeing now? What will you be telling attendees at the Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium this year? I still think that the most important economic relationship in the world is the China-US relationship. China and the United States have declared a truce in the currency wars. China has now unofficially pegged its currency to the US dollar at a rate of around 6.2:1. Although the Chinese economy is slowing down and China might want to juice its exports by depreciating the currency, it’s not doing that. They're on their best behavior, because there's something else they want. They want the Chinese Yuan included as part of the basket behind the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). China very badly wants to be included in the SDRs. I analogize it to being in a club – and China wants in. Now, the US controls membership – we're sort of the gatekeeper for that club. So, behind the scenes, we're telling China, 'if you want to be in the club, you have to act like a member. With regard to currency wars, that means no more currency manipulation. You have to peg your currency to the dollar.' They've done this as a condition to getting in. So there is a truce, but this is not the end of the currency wars. China has a history of being on their best behavior when they're trying to join an organization. Take for example the World Trade Organization, where once they got in they began breaking the rules. So I suspect that the currency wars between China and the US will come back next year. Meanwhile, China continues to accumulate gold. China has announced an increase in their gold holdings. I believe that the numbers they have shown are significant but not nearly as high as what they actually have. So China is trying to look more like a normal country. One of the topics I'll be talking about is the relationship between the Yuan and the Dollar, between China and gold, and ultimately the consequences for gold investors. Is it very important to own gold now? I think it's always very important to own gold. I've recommended that investors have about 10% of their portfolio in the yellow metal. I don't think investors should go 'all in' on gold. If things just continue the way they are, with only a 10% allocation you won't be hurt that badly, assuming gold continues to go down. If I'm right and some catastrophic event is on the horizon, then that 10% would be your portfolio insurance. I don't like 'paper gold' – like futures, ETFs, or un-allocated gold storage from the London Bullion Market. These products allow the counter-parties to terminate the agreement by giving the investor a dollar value of their gains. But that would deprive you of any future gains. You might get cashed out just as the crisis was beginning and not be able to participate in the upside as the crises worsened. The other reason to own physical gold, which I'll also be talking about in Vancouver, is the prevalence of cyber-warfare. Physical gold is a non-digital asset. You can't attack it with cyber-warfare, so I think it has another insurance function for investors there. I look forward to talking about that in Vancouver also. Thanks a lot Jim – see you in Vancouver. Nice talking to you. Regards, Henry Bonner P.S. The Sprott-Stansberry Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium kicks off next week. We’ve arranged for you to listen in on every word that’s said, right here. The post Rickards: “Euro Creators Want to Force Common Fiscal Control” appeared first on Daily Reckoning. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| WW3 RED ALERT -- Israel lobbyist calls for false-flag to ignite war with Iran Posted: 24 Jul 2015 01:25 PM PDT Patrick Clawson of the AIPAC-controlled think tank Washington Institute for Near East Policy publicly calls for a false-flag operation to kick-start the pre-planned war with Iran. The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Rebound - Option Expiration Next Week Posted: 24 Jul 2015 01:07 PM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GATA secretary interviewed on growing obviousness of central bank attacks on gold Posted: 24 Jul 2015 10:17 AM PDT 1:20p ET Friday, July 24, 2015 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Interviewed today by Mike Gleason of Money Metals Exchange, your secretary/treasurer commented on the increasing obviousness and desperation of central bank attacks on the gold market, the grudging recognition by market observers that someone really is manipulating the market, the willingness of the monetary metals mining industry to die quietly, the worthlessness of such an industry, and the refusal of the World Gold Council to represent gold investors and its own mining company members. The interview is 19 minutes long and can be heard at the Money Metals Internet site here: https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2015/07/24/gold-now-most-hated-asse... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference http://noic2015.eventbrite.com/?aff=gata The Silver Summit and Resource Expo 2015 http://cambridgehouse.com/event/50/the-silver-summit-and-resource-expo-2... Support GATA by purchasing recordings of the proceedings of the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference: https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/2014-av-powell Or by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| One Expensive Asset You Should Sell Posted: 24 Jul 2015 10:13 AM PDT This post One Expensive Asset You Should Sell appeared first on Daily Reckoning. VANCOUVER – When we woke up in the morning, the TransCanada had already heaved itself over the highest point in the Rockies. Gone were the dense forests of the East. Gone were the wide-open spaces of Saskatchewan and Alberta. We were in British Columbia – rolling downhill, following the gray-green river downstream, through boiling canyons and lazy flats… Does any country have more bountiful natural resources than Canada? Timber, food, cattle, minerals, water – Canadians have it all. Too bad: When it comes to prosperity, there are few things as dangerous as inheriting money or having abundant natural resources. Gagging on OilRather than making or inventing things… or providing useful services… a resource-rich economy tends to sell itself – by the ton. When commodities boom, the miners, farmers, and lumberjacks live high on the hog. But when they fall – the economy falls with them. Canada's economic growth was negative in the first quarter. The country is the world's tenth largest exporter of crude oil. And oil is in its worst downturn in 30 years, according to Morgan Stanley. The U.S. oil price has dipped below $50 a barrel. Along with it, the entire commodity complex – upon which much of the economy of Canada depends – could be dragged further down too. Why? Even more dangerous than resource abundance is economic "guidance" from the feds. First, Alan Greenspan kept rates too low after the mini-recession of 2001. Then the Bernanke Fed pushed them down to near zero and kept them there for the last six years. And now Janet Yellen is steering the same course. The cheap credit gave resource producers the means to overproduce and consumers the wherewithal to over consume. At such a low cost of borrowing, producers could earn positive cash flow without regard to real economic results. And with the Fed's rate fixing falsifying the cost of capital, they didn't know if they were really making money or not. So, they produced so much oil the world gagged on it. Commodities Give WayBut now the bottom has given way under the resource market. (Scroll down to Market Insight for more…) BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company by reserves, has slashed production… …Caterpillar – which pushes lifts and carries resources all over the world – has seen sales falling for 31 months in a row… …Chesapeake Energy – the tenth largest oil producer and second largest natural gas producer in the U.S. – has cut its dividend to preserve cash, as shares fell to a 12-year low… …and Kumba Iron Ore, Africa's largest iron ore producer, has eliminated its dividend after announcing that profits had crashed 66% in the first half of the year. None of this is good news for Canada's commodity-based economy. But there's something else going on here… Life in Canada's cities is different from the countryside. An influx of immigrants, mostly from Asia, has boosted the energy and wealth of Toronto, Vancouver, and other large urban areas. They seem more prosperous and dynamic than the large metropolises of the U.S. For the most part, property prices are higher in Canada, too – especially in Vancouver – where they may be more a product of foreign buying than of local industry. Outside the cities, though, you might just as well be in West Virginia, Oklahoma, or Alabama. There is little evidence of wealth or style. Along the tracks of the TransCanada, our only reference, houses are modest – even shabby. Neither agriculture nor forestry appears to have ever produced much profit for Canada's heartland. Particularly disappointing is the domestic architecture. A dear reader sent a photo (see today's Mailbag below) of a house he had built with his own hands – of stone and logs. It is a gem. But it is unusual. Whether you are in the outer suburbs of Toronto… or out on the plains of Alberta… the style is the same: boxy, boring, and cheap. Pricey PropertyBut when we rolled into Vancouver, all of a sudden, things changed. We saw money. There are high-rise condos everywhere. Chic people. Expensive shops. Crowded restaurants. A few years ago, a bust in the mining sector would have emptied the restaurants. Today, the waiters keep serving drinks despite the smashup in the resource sector. Back in the old days, a collapse in mining meant that brokers, promoters, and mining entrepreneurs – not to mention the stockholders – had to move fast to raise cash. Their fancy cars went back to the dealers, and real estate agents put up "For Sale" signs in front of their handsome houses! No evidence of that now. Compared to incomes, Vancouver has the second most expensive houses in the world. Only Hong Kong has less affordable real estate. Advice to Canadian readers: Sell. Postscript: After four days on the rails, the TransCanada eased into Vancouver station. Luggage was off-loaded. Cabin stewards were thanked. We had become friendly with our travel companions and embraced them warmly as we headed in our separate directions. We don't know if we'd do it again, but it was a pleasure doing it once. Canada is a magnificent country. We were glad we got a chance to see it. We took photos… Scroll to the end and have a look. The post One Expensive Asset You Should Sell appeared first on Daily Reckoning. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Does Jewelry or Central Bank Demand Drive the Gold Price? Posted: 24 Jul 2015 08:51 AM PDT We have already shown that neither mining production, nor technological demand drives gold prices, since gold – thanks to its uniquely high stock-to-flows – resembles an asset rather than commodity. Before we look at the drivers of gold investment demand, we have to analyze the role of jewelry demand and central bank buying in the gold price formation. These two categories are often considered as important drivers for the gold price, but are they really? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Central Banks Ready To Panic — Again Posted: 24 Jul 2015 08:45 AM PDT Less than a decade after a housing/derivatives bubble nearly wiped out the global financial system, a new and much bigger commodities/derivatives bubble is threatening to finish the job. Raw materials are tanking as capital pours out of the most heavily-impacted countries and into anything that looks like a reasonable hiding place. So the dollar is up, Swiss and German bond yields are negative, and fine art is through the roof. Now emerging market turmoil is spreading to the developed world and the conventional wisdom is shifting from a future of gradual interest rate normalization amid a return to steady growth, to zero or negative rates as far as the eye can see. Here’s a representative take from Bloomberg:
This is not how the Fed, ECB or Bank of Japan envisioned the year playing out. They see ultra-low rates as an emergency measure, temporary in nature and to be dispensed with asap. From MarketWatch:
That “unforeseen event” has arrived, leaving most central banks with a stark choice: Let the deflationary crash run its course at the risk of blowing up the quadrillion or so dollars of interest rate, credit, and currency derivatives hidden on bank and hedge fund balance sheets. Or push interest rates into negative territory pretty much across the developed world. Since option number one carries a statistically-significant chance of ending the modern financial era it is absolutely unacceptable to Goldman et al, and is thus a non-starter. Which leaves only option two: more of the same but bigger and badder. So…the central banks will panic. Countries that retain some control over their monetary systems will see their interest rates fall to zero and beyond, while those that don’t will be thrown into some kind of new age hyperinflationary depression. Not 2008 all over again; this is something much stranger. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Global economic termites are eating away gold price foundations Posted: 24 Jul 2015 08:15 AM PDT Even an arch-traditionalist like the late Sheikh Sakhbut learnt that there were alternatives to gold. Today's investors are finding ever-fewer reasons to hold the precious metal  This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| David Icke : Child Abuse And The Elephant In The Living Room Posted: 24 Jul 2015 07:53 AM PDT 19th July 2015. The David Icke Videocast: Child Abuse And The Elephant In The Living Room - Watch the full video at http://www.davidicke.com The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 24 Jul 2015 07:48 AM PDT Gold stocks suffered a full-blown panic this past week! This exceedingly-rare magnitude of selloff was triggered by extreme futures shorting intentionally executed to force a flash crash in gold. After gold’s major multi-year support failed in this Machiavellian onslaught, gold stocks plummeted. The levels of fear were so epic that this entire sector was slammed much deeper into fundamentally-absurd price territory. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Mining Stocks Nearing Rebound Posted: 24 Jul 2015 05:20 AM PDT Recently we've been writing about the downside potential in precious metals and the danger for precious metals bulls. The gold miners and Silver have led the rout while Gold finally cracked support ($1140-$1150/oz) last week. That led to a severe selloff across the complex. As we pen this on Thursday evening it appears Friday could be a nasty day if Gold breaks below $1080/oz. Nevertheless, the odds now favor a rebound in the weeks ahead and especially in the gold miners. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Stock Carnage Continues Unabated Posted: 24 Jul 2015 05:12 AM PDT There is still no sign of any serious buying occurring in the gold mining sector. The HUI continues to plummet lower and has fallen to levels last seen in October and November of 2002! This is simply astonishing for its ferocity. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commodities Distressed Investing Posted: 24 Jul 2015 03:53 AM PDT When most people think of distressed investing, they think of buying CCC-rated bonds at 20 or 30 cents on the dollar, then maybe sitting in bankruptcy court to divvy up the capital structure, making healthy risk-adjusted returns in the end. You just need to hire a few lawyers. Distressed investors are a different breed of cat. It̢۪s one of those countercyclical businesses, like repo men, who do well when everyone else is getting hammered. |
Ivan Obolensky, Pilgrims Society, is identified as an investment banker. However, we are more appropriately placing him in the royalty section which will be number 28 or 29 (or other later number due to ongoing series revision), if that group is in two parts due to too much length as one presentation. Obolensky is a relation of the super rich Astors. In the next installment, Megabankers in the Society (#21 because #20 will be Part II of Investment Bankers), we'll include a profile on globe-straddling titan Sir Peter Sutherland who, though he could fit into this investment bankers presentation due to his strong linkage to Goldman Sachs, has been a director of several megabanks.
I strongly suspect that John Williams is right, that the US, despite all the frantic government and Fed propaganda, has slid back into recession. This is something I am not happy about since I feel the future of the human race depends very much on the brilliance and the democratic desires of the United States. Studying the market figures, I can't say that the market is going my way. 
Economic forecaster 
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