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- Gold Investors Weekly Review – November 14th
- Weekly View of Gold
- Gold And Silver Jump On Bullish Price Action
- Market Report: Is gold turning the corner?
- Egon von Greyerz on Historic Swiss Referendum: Marks the Final Exhaustion in Gold & Silver Manipulation!
- A Change Underway In The Suppressed Gold And Silver Down Trend?
- India Back to Being the World’s Top Gold Consumer
- Egon von Greyerz on Historic Swiss Referendum: Marks the Final Exhaustion in Gold & Silver Manipulation!
- Oil down for a seventh week as WTI drops to $75
- Swiss gold referendum and Russian buying rallies gold and silver prices
- Silver Analyst Who Predicted Silver’s Crash to $15 Three Years Ago Says Massive Rally to $1,000/oz Next!
- Jim Willie: Fed Launches STEALTH QE4 Through TOKYO- Currency Reset & New Gold Standard Imminent!
- Harvey Organ: HUGE Gold & Silver Break-out!
- Marshall Swing: PMs Will Not Be Allowed to Crash Until September 2015
- Watching for Evidence of a Shift in Sentiment
- Jim Willie: Fed Launches STEALTH QE4 Through TOKYO- Currency Reset & New Gold Standard Imminent!
- BO POLNY: With Gold’s $1180 Triple Bottom Broken, Is the Gold Bull Market Over?
- Megaphone Top in Equities, Bottom in Junior Gold Miners?
- Silver’s Long Lost Monetary Role – Let’s Make Some Real Money!
- Avoid this accident waiting to happen in investment markets
- The Clarion Call
- A Warning from the Watchman
- Gold Volatility Index Soaring
- Struggling miners see silver lining in FX, cheaper oil
| Gold Investors Weekly Review – November 14th Posted: 15 Nov 2014 09:35 AM PST In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the USFunds.com summarizes this week's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the gold market for gold investors. Gold closed the week at $1,189.01 up $11.03 per ounce (0.94%). Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, rose 2.94%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index fell 0.13% for the week. Gold Market StrengthsOn Tuesday, gold futures jumped higher after a report showed that U.S. jobless claims increased more than forecast last week. Gold prices rallied on Friday as more than 10,000 contracts for December delivery were traded, pushing the gold price up 1.5 percent within six minutes. Moreover, the one-, two-, three- and six-month gold forward offered rates turned negative, signaling increased physical demand in a tightening market. Robin Winkler of Deutsche Bank wrote that current polling on the referendum in Switzerland (to require its national bank to hold 20 percent of its reserves in gold) was now leading in the polls. Gold traders turned bullish for the first time in three weeks as prices neared four-year lows. Additionally, this month U.S. Mint gold coin sales are already more than half of what they were in October, which was the strongest month since January. Austria Mint sales are up 40 percent from October. Gold Market WeaknessesThe World Gold Council announced that gold demand fell to the lowest level in almost five years in the third quarter as bar, coin and jewelry purchases slowed. Silver shorts are at record highs as the market remains negative on the precious metals sector due to the strong U.S. dollar. Fund shorts account for 39 percent and 54 percent of total open interest for Comex silver and Nymex platinum, respectively. Switzerland's regulator charged UBS AG employees with front-running in precious metals trading, particularly in silver, as part of its review of the bank's foreign-exchange business. The Swiss regulator and those in the U.S. and the U.K. ordered UBS and four other banks to pay about $3.3 billion to settle a probe into the rigging of foreign-exchange rates. Gold Market OpportunitiesThe UBS commodity strategy team published a contrarian report stating that liquidity will run dry well before the Federal Reserve has a chance to increase the Fed Funds rate, according to the research firm's Proprietary U.S. Liquidity Indicator. As a consequence, they believe the next significant action of the Fed will be an attempt to reflate the U.S. economy, not rein it in. This leads to a bullish outlook on both dollar cash and gold equities.
The same UBS report delineates that gold stocks will outperform bullion as the Fed likely reflates the economy. The research firm’s Fed Action Model predicts when the Federal Reserve is likely to act when the reading falls below zero. Furthermore, their reasoning for gold stocks outperforming bullion is a result of two types of gold rallies. The first is a reflationary boom scenario where bullion outperforms gold stocks as commodity appreciation causes costs to rise. This leads miners to low grade operations and undertake high-cost expansions and M&As. That was the case in 2004 -2007 and 2009-2011. The second type of rally is characterized by risk aversion flows out of credit and equity and into treasuries. Costs at the mine fall as commodity currencies decline. Miners cut costs and restructure. With gold in a bear market, the stocks are financially and operationally geared. This was the case in 2001-2002 and during the last four months of 2008. This is the scenario the UBS team sees presently unfolding.
Gold Market ThreatsIndia, the world's biggest gold user after China, announced it will review bullion import rules after purchases in October jumped to the highest level this fiscal year. Though no indication has been given, any import restrictions could be a headwind for gold prices. The labor movement in South Africa has been thrown into turmoil after the November 8 decision by the Congress of South African Trade Unions to expel the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa. The decision was opposed by seven of the 20 other affiliates and sets the stage for a fight over loyalty and membership dues of the remaining 1.85 million members. South Africa's labor relations are the most hostile of 144 countries, according to the World Economic Forum, and the country had 114 strikes last year that resulted in 6.7 billion rand ($597 million) in lost wages. UBS cut its one-month gold target from $1,250 per ounce to $1,180 per ounce citing weak sentiment, light positioning and an extreme amount of shorts.
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| Posted: 15 Nov 2014 09:01 AM PST Here is a quick look at the intermediate term chart of gold. There are several things that stand out to me as I survey this chart. Let's start with the various phases. I have delineated these with the variously colored shaded rectangles for your convenience. I think the chart speaks for itself.  The peak above $1900 in September 2011, was the climax of the then bull market. Subsequent to that, the market entered what can now be clearly seen as a transition phase. However at that time, we as technicians were unclear as to whether the great bull was finished or was merely taking a rest, gathering itself for another rampage higher. This transition phase, or consolidation, occurred over a period of 15 months in which the price was essentially range bound. The top of the range that formed was $1800 and the bottom was $1530-$1525. There is something interesting about this range which we can see clearly in retrospect. The $1800 ceiling was a triple top just as the $1530-$1525 level was a triple bottom. The old trading adage that "triple tops or triple bottoms rarely hold" turned out to be true, but not for the upside. The reason for that is because the US Dollar bottomed out near 79 (USDX) that very same month ( October 2012). As it rallied, any hope for gold taking out $1800 was dead. In April 2013, gold officially entered its current bear market with a clean break to the downside of that broad range trade defined during the Transition Phase. We remain in that bear as of this weekend. Please note that gold throughout the bear that has unfolded, gold was demonstrated all the classic signs commensurate with bear markets, namely a series of LOWER highs, with the exception of a horizontal support zone that had formed near $1180. Unlike the previous trading range where the highs were at the same level ($1800) and the lows at the same level, ( $1530-$1525), the current state has shown us that very good buying has been present down at the $1180 level. So much so that once again, another Triple bottom had formed there. The market clearly violated that level three weeks ago but has since then not seen much in the way of additional downside follow through. That is evidencing a reluctance to extend the break lower at this time. Normally, when one sees a clean break either ABOVE or BELOW a broad consolidation range, in order to validate it, good technicians like to see three things: First - a move OUTSIDE THE RANGE of 2% or more; Secondly, - strong follow through, and Thirdly - SUCCESSIVE strong downside closes. In the case of the first requirement, a 2% move below $1180 means price would need to drop another $24 to confirm the breakout. That it did with the market easily falling past $1156. On the second point - we also got the strong downside follow through the previous week with the price moving as low as $1130. That is a 4% move below the $1180 level. However, and this to me seems to be the key ingredient that it thus far missing - the all important WEEKLY CLOSES have yet to confirm a 2% move down. In other words, from the perspective of a technician looking to confirm the downside breakout of the triple bottom at $1180, gold would need to sustain a WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW $1156 to confirm a new leg lower. As you can see from the chart, it clearly has not done that. The week immediately following the downside support breach put in a close at $1169.80. That was well above the 2% threshold. This Friday's close was actually ABOVE the $1180 level, coming in at $1185.60. Thus, as of now, we have not gotten CONFIRMATION that the downside breach of $1180 is valid as far as setting up another leg lower. By the way, can I just make a quick comment here - any of those pestilential gold newsletter writers who are always bullish gold no matter what, and who state that gold is in a bull market, are not worth being paid a single dime. Any supposed 'technician' who cannot get something this evident correct is rather frightening in their ignorance. Gold has been a bear for almost 20 months how. Save your money and spend it on something more productive than keeping such misleading writers in the business of producing such nonsense. Now that we have covered this, let's come back to something I stated a while back in a previous post. Throughout the entirety of this bear market, there has been countertrend rallies, which have provided opportunities for those traders who are very short term oriented to profit from by playing from the long side of the market. The caveat I added was that they need to be very quick on the drawn however as the rallies have all tended to end with rather sharp downside moves meaning that most of the profits from such trades can be lost unless a trader has been nimble and fleet of foot. Take a look at this chart in its entirety and note the BLUE ARROWS. I placed them below what we technicians refer to as "Spike Bottoms". Notice also that in ALL THREE PHASES of the gold market, BULLISH, TRANSITION, and BEARISH, these spike bottoms are present. What does this tell us? Simple - gold has a tendency to put in spike bottoms when it reverses direction. Traders who understand this particular "quirk" of gold's personality can take advantage of that. These are signs that the market has been sold out temporarily. Notice that after each and every one of these blue arrows, the price has rallied. During the current bearish phase, it has provided traders with both the opportunity to make a long side bet as well as eventually finding a higher level from which to reenter on the short side. Remember, the trend is down until proven otherwise but one can always place short term trades while positioning also in the direction of the prevailing trend at key technically significant levels. Please note that I have also drawn in a RESISTANCE ZONE on this chart which bulls might possibly be able to reach if this Friday's rally turns out to be more than another of those one day wonders. It comes in near $1240 on the chart and is shown by the blue rectangle. That level served to hold the market back in May of this year when it fell to that point and then rallied $100 up to $1340 before failing. However, it gave way most convincingly in September this year, was briefly violated in a short term countertrend rally but the price could not CLOSE above it. It should thus now serve as an upside cap on any subsequent move higher in price. If the market does manage to put in a WEEKLY CLOSE of any significance above $1240, it would decidedly change the complexion of the price chart. One would then have to give some real credence to a solid bottom being in for gold. Only time will tell us however whether or not this is the case. Anything prior to that is pure GUESSING. Lastly, let me leave you with a LONG TERM MONTHLY chart of gold.  However it still remains BELOW both trend line and has yet to exceed the previous month high of $1255.60. To give some bullish credence to this otherwise dour looking chart, the metal would at a bare minimum need to exceed that point to get technicians a bit more upbeat on its prospects. A MONTHLY CLOSE ABOVE $1340 would be necessary to give even more confidence that something more important is afoot. As stated many times here, and which needs to be repeated - There seems to be a mistaken impression among many people that markets that are going down will bottom and then launch into a bull market with little or no warning. The reverse also seems to be another just-as-frequently mistaken view, that a market which has been going up, will stop going up, reverse and then enter a bear market. In some cases, notably in the grains, this can be occasionally true due to unpredictable weather driven events. But more often than not, there are TRANSITION PHASES, as I have detailed above, that will occur. These are periods of sideways trade during which a market will move up and down, back and forth, for many months at a time, generally going nowhere outside of the range. Gold may very well be going back to a pattern like that. Or it may not; it could be forming a temporary respite from the selling before making a new leg lower. Or it could be ready to move past $1340 and start something more exciting. The simple truth is that there is not a single human being on this planet who really knows. We all have our ideas and opinions, but that is exactly what they are, ideas and opinions. Until we get some sort of confirmation any dogmatically asserted opinions, no matter how often that they are repeated, are just people looking for attention as they make their guesses. Don't fall for that. The market will tell us what it wants to do when it is good and ready to do so. Our business as traders is attempting to ferret out exactly what that voice might be saying. |
| Gold And Silver Jump On Bullish Price Action Posted: 15 Nov 2014 08:15 AM PST This is an excerpt from the daily StockCharts.com newsletter to premium subscribers, which offers daily a detailed market analysis (recommended service).
Metals had a healthy day, as did other natural resource ETFs. I’ve highlighted notable ETFs right from our DecisionPoint ETF Tracker Report found in the DP Tracker Blog. This displays only a small portion of the ETFs we cover in the Tracker Report and only the section that sorts by the day’s percentage change. I’ve selected some of the charts for analysis.
Let’s look at the Gold ETF, GLD. What dominates this chart is a bearish reverse flag formation. However, rather than executing with a breakdown below the flag, it broke out above the flag. When you see a bullish outcome to a bearish technical pattern it is a sign of positive momentum. This is confirmed by the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) which bottomed. A PMO bottom in oversold territory is generally a good set up.
The Silver iShares ETF, SLV looks very similar to GLD. There is a reverse flag which is considered bearish, but instead of breaking down, price broke out. The PMO is very close to a positive crossover its 10-EMA which would generate a PMO Crossover BUY signal.
The Gold Miners ETF is sending us mixed messages. On the one hand there is a bearish reverse flag formation while on the other hand, the PMO just crossed over its EMA generating a PMO BUY signal.
I encourage you to go to our DP ETF Tracker, find an ETF on a line of the report that interests you and click on it. The chart will come up and you can analyze and annotate it just as I did above. To access the reportyou do need to be a StockCharts.com member. |
| Market Report: Is gold turning the corner? Posted: 15 Nov 2014 08:00 AM PST Finance and Eco. |
| Posted: 15 Nov 2014 05:24 AM PST Podcast: Play in new window | Download
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| A Change Underway In The Suppressed Gold And Silver Down Trend? Posted: 15 Nov 2014 02:45 AM PST Until there is a clear break of elite's central banking dominance over the gold and silver markets, there will be no dramatic recovery reflective of where the true price for both metals should be. Whether it is $5,000 or $10,000 for gold or $100 or $200 for silver [the ounce], the current distorted pricing, as dictated by the paper derivative market and not actual physical metal, will prevail demonstrating the power the elites exert at will. The probability of the elites being "all in" has not even reached the stretching point, yet, although it may be getting there. All that remains, really, is to wait and let events take the unnatural course they have been on for several decades. The undoing of too many decades of gold/silver manipulation/suppression will not be accomplished in a single year, as it has not been over the past few years, and there is no way of knowing the time factor for change in the year[s] ahead. We have said on several occasions, the elites think in terms of decades, while most people have trouble planning a year in advance. Back in 1988, the Economist, [A Rothschild- backed publication, certainly in terms of content], published an article, "Get Ready For A World Currency By 2018." Here is a 30 year plan as evidence of how the elites work, and there was surely years of planning involved before the article was even published. The new world currency was to be administered by the International Monetary Fund. It could only work if nations gave up their sovereignty [Hello, European Union], and all currency control to the IMF, as it was imagined back then. Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Spain, etc, etc, and more to follow, have virtually given up their sovereignty in favor of increased debt "bail-outs" to "cure" the excessive debt under which each country was already buried. There is no one who would agree that increased doses of heroin will "cure" an addict, or increased whiskey or vodka will "cure" an alcoholic, yet the Western banking elites have sold the notion that the only way to save a financially destitute country is to take on even more debt as a "cure," and the masses continue to buy into it. There is one thing upon which almost all can agree as a certainty: the paper fiat currency scheme, as it exists today, is near its end, inevitably doomed to failure. Consider a few related circumstances. Seven years ago, the Fed's balance sheet was 6.3% of the U S economy. Today, it is over 25% of Gross Domestic Product. During that time span, the Fed's balance sheet grew 5 times larger while the actual economy was up about 20%. All that the Quantitative Easings have done is shore up the entire underwater banking system while the US economy has been purposely gutted in the process. In the 10 year period prior to 2007, $13.88 of new GDP was created for every new Federal Reserve Dollar printed by the Fed. From 2007 through the first half of 2014, only 81.8 cents of new GDP was created for every fiat Federal Reserve Note. This is but one example of how the elites are destroying the Federal Reserve Dollar, gutting the economy, and propping up their precious "Do Not Disturb" fiat debt enslavement Ponzi scheme. Most Americans remain in a comatose state of [un]awareness when it comes to understanding how the fiat monetary system [does not] works. The G-20 met in Australia last week, and guess what has been announced as a part of their agenda? The G-20 has vowed to focus on a plan to add $2 trillion to world GDP. This kind of economic insanity has no limits for the elite's New World Order, to be controlled by a single IMF currency. Can it be any clearer why gold and silver are being suppressed in order to serve the greater NWO good? We mentioned the importance of the Swiss referendum requiring the Swiss National Bank to maintain a 20% gold reserve requirement, from the current 8%, and it also prohibits the Swiss central bank from ever selling any Swiss gold. What is of great interest is the ability of the elite's central bankers possibly preventing the Swiss referendum from passing. Should it pass, despite both Swiss government and banking pressure against it, the question then becomes, what will the payback consequences be against the Swiss for fighting the elite's system of controlled debt. All Western politicians are controlled by the Rothschild central banking system, and all Western governments are subservient to these banking interests. While it may appear that China and Russia, along with the other BRICS nations, have banded together to put an end to the elite-controlled fiat currency system led by the once "almighty dollar,' now in rapid decline, appearances are never what they seem to be, on purpose. What is not clear is the extent to which the elite's central banking system has control over both the Chinese and Russian governments. The United States, as a world-dominating power, fades with each passing month. This country is done, finished, and is running on its remaining military might. The US has no viable means of sustaining itself. There is no manufacturing base, there are no savings in plant and equipment from which to rebuild. Cities, even states, are facing bankruptcy, burdened by decades of public pension promises that can no longer be met, along with diminishing tax revenues. Which country will take over? Both Russia and China have a host of issues that preclude them from implementing a workable world-serving financial currency/system. It is not clear that China even has the capacity to become the next world powerhouse. Russia does not. Yet both nations have expressed support of a currency system run by the IMF, the elite-controlled mechanism for running its New World Order agenda. Why would they say that? The elite-dominance of its fiat paper dynasty has ruled the world for a few centuries. Money is least understood by the masses, yet it is the greatest controlling influence by a small group pulling the strings by which the Western world operates. Does that small but most powerful group extend its control over China and Russia? While the thinking is that both countries will "reset" the price of gold and silver as the fiat system of the Western world is toppled, who knows if the elites are simply changing horses, as it were, and will eventually be running China and Russia as it has the US/UK/EU? There are so many unanswered [unanswerable?] questions, beyond when will gold and silver "take off?" As to the latter, the charts still say "No time soon." While this is true as the way things stand now, change can occur at any time, but that is future, and all we is address what is actually known in the present tense. Yes, last Friday was the best for silver in a single day in over two years, but that does not materially change anything. Three weeks ago there was a S/D [Supply over Demand], two day move lower when the recent 16.60 support area was broken. The decline started from the 17.20 level, so resistance is defined by that range. Last Friday was an attempt to begin an assault on this immediate overhead resistance. Friday was a D/S bar, [Demand overcoming Supply]. Combining the last two Fridays, we are starting to see a change in the character of market behavior where the strongest bars in the down trend are to the upside. For next week, it is important to see if there will be any upside follow-through, and to what extent, given the overall layers of resistance, and also the way in which Friday's rally bar is retested. An example of a positive retest is what occurred two Fridays ago when price moved in a sideways manner for four trading days, maintain the gains. Once a pattern of gains being able to hold emerges, it will lead to a trend change.
When last Friday's impressive rally is incorporated into the weekly chart, the response is not as enthusiastic for its impact. There will be an increasing number of articles declaring silver is on its way, probably from the same writers that said the same thing over the past several months. Glance back at the low for 2010, and you can see how after an initial rally, price moved sideways for about five months. It does not mean a similar pattern develops here, just that it can take some time for a trend to change course, and being first in is not always the best situation. Waiting for an upside breakout of the 5 month pattern brought more immediate results, so it pays to be more select in one's timing, at least for futures.
Gold's pattern is more stable than silver's, even though silver outperformed gold last week on a relative price relationship basis. The previous two swing bottoms in 2013 and almost 2014 did not lead to sustained rallies, and there is zero available evidence that says a new bull move will commence, presuming the recent low holds as a swing low. Let the market prove itself first.
You can see how the general level of volume has picked up in the month of November. The fact that the volume increase is occurring at the lows, if they hold, usually indicates a change from weak hands into strong. Keep in mind, it takes time to turn around a trend, and the down trend can change into a sideways move before an up trend occurs, so patience has merit for not "jumping the gun," which often means a false start. Note the combined volume of the last 10 TDs [Trading Days]. In total, it still has not led a price move over the single down day and its volume from 31 October. It shows the difficulty of effort required of buyers to overcome sellers in a down trend. It also suggests the volume and price behavior is more in the form of short-covering as opposed to new longs being established. Gold has dropped 770 dollars from its highs. A rally of 55 dollars should not be viewed as game-changing.
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| India Back to Being the World’s Top Gold Consumer Posted: 15 Nov 2014 01:57 AM PST "That leaves Canada's Scotiabank as the 'King Short' in the COMEX silver market" ¤ Yesterday In Gold & SilverThe gold price traded pretty flat until 1 p.m. Hong Kong time---and at that time, it got sold lower to the tune of about twelve bucks or so. From that point onward, it didn't do much---and the low tick came around 8:35 a.m. in New York, about 15 minutes after the COMEX open. The price never looked back from there---and starting around the 9:30 a.m. open of the equity markets it began to rally with a vengeance. The high tick came shortly before the 1:30 p.m. Comex close---and the price didn't do much after that. The low and high ticks were reported as $1,146.00 and $1,192.90 in the December contract. Gold closed in New York yesterday at $1,188.50 spot, up $26.60 from Thursday's close. Net volume was sky high at 255,000 contracts. Gross volume was well north of 300,000 contracts, so it was a very active day. Here's the 5-minute tick gold chart. It doesn't show the HFT trading before the London open, but it certainly shows the low tick around 8:40 a.m. EST. Note the big volume spikes on each up-tick. Don't forget to add 2 hours for EST, as the 'x' axis of this chart is MST. As is normally the case, the silver price was under pressure right from the 6 p.m. EST open on Thursday evening in New York and, like gold, got hit by the HFT boyz around 1:30 p.m. in Hong Kong trading on their Friday afternoon. It hit its $15.20 [spot] low tick an hour and change later. From there it rallied a bit into the London open---and then traded flat before retesting the earlier low minutes after 1 p.m. GMT in London. From there, like gold, the price never looked back, melting up to its high tick of the day around 1:15 p.m. EST---and 15 minutes before the Comex close. And also like gold, the price traded flat from there into the 5:15 p.m. close of electronic trading. The low and highs were recorded by the CME Group as $15.25 and $16.38 in the December contract, an intraday move of over 7 percent. Silver closed yesterday at $16.325 spot, up 66 cents from Thursday's close. Net volume was 71,000 contracts. The platinum price didn't do much until shortly after 1 p.m. in Zurich. At that point the price got sold down for a double bottom which occurred between 8:30 and 9:30 a.m. EST---and from there it rallied like gold and silver until 1:15 p.m. From there it chopped sideways into the close. Platinum closed up 16 bucks. The palladium price chart was somewhat similar to the platinum chart, but the low price tick that came shortly after the COMEX open was rather vicious in nature---and the metal barely rallied back above unchanged by 12:30 p.m. EST. From there it got sold down for a three dollar loss on the day. The dollar index closed late on Thursday afternoon in New York at 87.77---and from there it rallied up to 88.07 at exactly 2 p.m. Hong Kong time, before selling down to 87.85 around 8:30 a.m. GMT. The 88.23 high tick came in a spike that occurred around 8:30 a.m. in New York. That was the high water mark for the dollar index---and the beginning of the rally in all four precious metals. It all looks so co-ordinated, that it's hard to believe that it was accidental. From that high, the index slid down to its 87.40 low tick shortly before 2:30 p.m. EST---and it recovered a handful of basis points going into the close. The index closed at 87.55, which was down 22 basis points from Thursday's close. Here's the 6-month dollar index---and it indicates, at least to me, that we've seen a major top. I've mentioned a few times in the last week or so that it might be a good idea to hit the bid if you were long the U.S. dollar. The gold stocks opened in the red, but didn't stay there long, as HUI powered higher all day long, closing up 6.93%---and just off its high tick of the day. The silver equities, not surprisingly, did even better, as Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index closed up 7.86%. After a surprising report on Thursday, the CME Daily Delivery Report for Friday had another surprise in store, as 462 gold contracts and 1 lonely silver contract were posted for delivery on Tuesday. It was JPMorgan out of its client account again, this time with 385 contracts, along with ABN Amro with 69 contracts out of its client account as well. The big stopper for the second day in a row was Canada's Scotiabank with 456 contracts. Something appears to be up, but it's impossible to tell exactly what it is. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. The CME Preliminary Report for the Friday trading session showed incredible internal action within the November delivery month in gold. At the start of the trading day, November open interest had been as high as 942 contracts before Monday's deliveries were subtracted, so November o.i. was back down to 476 contracts once that happened---and once you subtract out the 462 contracts posted for delivery on Tuesday that are shown in the previous paragraph, the November open interest is back down to only 14 contracts. One still has to wonder if there will be any more surprises, but the fact that such large deliveries are being made back-to-back in a non-delivery month is of great interest---and Ted Butler may or may not have something to say about it in his weekly review later today. Silver's November open interest remained unchanged at 89 contracts. There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday---and as of 10:30 p.m. EST yesterday evening, there were no reported changes in SLV, either. It's a given that yesterday's price action will have brought out the GLD and SLV buyers in droves---and it will be interesting to see how much metal is deposited to meet this new demand. And if the metal isn't there, the authorized participants will be forced to short the shares in lieu of, like JPMorgan has been doing all along in silver, as the quantity of physical metal needed just doesn't exist. The U.S. Mint had a sales report yesterday. They sold 10,000 troy ounces of gold eagles---and 1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes. And as I mentioned yesterday, the mint will be back to selling 2014 silver eagles on an allocated basis starting on Monday. It will be interesting to see how many they actually make---and for how long---as it's a given that every one of them will already have a willing buyer. There wasn't much in/out movement in gold over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday. Nothing was reported received---and only 4,496 troy ounces were removed. There wasn't a lot of activity in silver either, as only 201,101 troy ounces were reported received---and 169,588 troy ounces were shipped out. The link to that activity is here. The Commitment of Traders Report for positions held a the close of trading on Tuesday was a very interesting report in both silver and gold. Ted spent over half an hour on the phone with me yesterday going through the whole thing, but I'm just going to hit the highlights. In silver, the Commercial net short position in the legacy COT Report blew out by 5,204 contracts, or 26.0 million troy ounces. The Commercial net short position is now back up to 88.1 million troy ounces. Under the hood in the Disaggregated Report, the traders in the Managed Money category sold 142 long contracts and covered 3,811 short contracts---and made a boat-load of money on those, which is what they did in the prior week's COT Report as well. At that time I said that I was sure that JPMorgan et al wouldn't have been happy to see these traders flee their carefully-set trap with big profits in hand---and I'm sure they were even less happy with this weeks' report. But the big news according to Ted was the fact that despite the blow-out in the Commercial net short position, there was no new shorting going on. And to make things even more interesting, the 'Big 8' short holders actually decreased their overall short position in silver during the reporting week. Ted now puts JPMorgan's short position at something under 8,000 contracts, which means that they are no longer the big silver short on the COMEX. That crown now belongs to Canada's Scotiabank---and has for many months. I estimate their net short position in silver to be in the 16,000 contract range, or maybe a bit more. In gold, the Commercial net short position in the legacy COT Report actually declined by 5,283 contracts, or 528,300 troy ounces. The Commercial net short position is now down to only 5.00 million troy ounces---and it has been many a moon since it's been that low. I know that Ted will have that actual number in his column later today. The Managed Money traders in the Disaggregated COT Report made the numbers look even better, as they sold 2,846 long positions---and went short an additional 5,344 contracts, a swing of almost 8,200 contracts. Ted says that JPMorgan increased its long-side corner in the COMEX futures market in gold by about 1,000 contracts---and they are now net long about 21,000 contracts. Without doubt there was overall deterioration in the Commercial net short position in all four precious metals since the cut-off---and the only thing unknown is to what degree it occurred, especially in gold and silver. Ted said that there were actually two different trading days rolled into one yesterday. The big sell-offs before the Comex open, where there was huge volume on the downside moves---followed by the short-covering rallies after that, with even bigger volume. How it all netted out is unknown and, depending on what the price action is like on Monday and Tuesday, we may or may not find out in next Friday's COT Report, because market events on those two days may bury Friday's action. So we wait. Since this is my Saturday column, I get to empty my in-box into it---and that's precisely what I intend to do, so edit away! ¤ Critical Reads Jim Rickards Speaks to "The Business" in AustraliaAs Joe Hockey calls on G-20 leaders arriving in Brisbane to focus on growth, at least one leading economist thinks much of the world is in a depression, but we just haven't noticed yet. Jim Rickards, the author of 'Currency Wars' and 'The Death of Money', speaks to commentator Andrew Robertson. This 6:15 minute audio interview was posted on the abc.net.au Internet site at 3:25 a.m. Australian Eastern Standard Time [AEST] on their Thursday morning 'down under'---and I thank Harold Jacobsen for today's first news item.  Pimco Paid Gross, El-Erian Over Half a Billion Dollars in 2013 BonusesPacific Investment Management Co. paid its former Chief Investment Officer Bill Gross a bonus of about $290 million in 2013, a year in which his Total Return Fund trailed a majority of peers, according to documents provided to Bloomberg View by someone with knowledge of Pimco’s bonus policies. Mohamed El-Erian, 56, the former chief executive officer who previously shared the title of CIO with Gross, received a 2013 bonus of about $230 million, according to figures first reported today by Bloomberg View columnist Barry Ritholtz. This Zero Hedge article is built around a Bloomberg piece from yesterday---and it was posted on their Internet site at 7:16 a.m. EST yesterday---and I thank reader M.A. for sharing it with us.  Congress Passes Keystone XL Pipeline Bill, Senate Can't Block, Obama Veto To Come?The Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives approved the Keystone XL pipeline on Friday, but a similar measure struggled to get enough support in the Senate and President Barack Obama indicated he might use his veto if the bill does get through Congress. The legislation, approved by 252 votes to 161, circumvents the need for approval of TransCanada Corp's $8 billion project by the Obama administration, which has been considering it for more than six years. No Republicans voted against the measure, while 31 Democrats voted for the bill. It was the ninth time the House has passed a Keystone bill, and supporters were confident that this time the Senate would follow suit and pass its version. But passage was not assured in the Senate, which is expected to take up the measure next Tuesday. Supporters were still one vote shy of the 60 needed to overcome a filibuster, a blocking procedure, an aide to a Keystone supporter said on Friday. The aide spoke on condition of anonymity. This Reuters article, filed from Washington, appeared on their website at 5:36 p.m. EST on Friday---and I borrowed the headline from a Zero Hedge article on this. I thank reader M.A. for his second offering in a row.  Economist Dean Baker: Many Americans Have Waved Goodbye to Their Nest EggsMany Americans are nearing retirement with only Social Security to support them and a mortgage that is far from paid off — and the situation might be getting worse. According to Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, the nest egg that many could once rely on when they sold their homes and downsized has now vanished in a lot of cases. In a column for Fortune, Baker noted that because home prices are still considerably below their 2007 peaks, the U.S. middle class has had no comparable gains in their household wealth during the current recovery. "This is a bad picture for the country as a whole, but it is especially bad news for those at the edge of retirement," he wrote. This article was posted on the moneynews.com Internet site at 8:00 a.m. EST yesterday---and it's courtesy of West Virginia reader Elliot Simon.  Stockman: Central Banks 'Out of Control Fueling Bubble'David Stockman, White House budget director under President Reagan, has warned about the dangers of a financial crisis for some time, and he's not backing down now. "Each and every day the central banks in the world get more out of control fueling a bubble the likes of which we have never seen in modern times, if ever," he told Fox Business Network. Stockman was referring to central bank easing programs. The Federal Reserve apparently plans to keep interest rates near zero until at least the middle of next year. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan recently announced a major increase in its monetary stimulus, and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has said in recent weeks that the ECB will expand its accommodation, too. This brief article appeared on the newsmax.com Internet site at 6:09 p.m. on Thursday evening EST---and it's the second story in a row from Elliot Simon. It's definitely worth reading.  Doug Noland: Financial Sphere BubblesThe Fed and global central bankers gambled that Financial Sphere intervention, manipulation and inflation would spur real economy reflation. It’s clear they’re playing a losing hand – it is also apparent that they are not willing to admit their flaws, failings or predicament. The harsh reality is that central bankers cannot escape Financial Sphere fragility. When Global Financial Sphere fragility turned acute back in the summer of 2012 (i.e. Italy, European banks and the euro), Draghi, Bernanke and Kuroda adopted unprecedented measures. They bought some time but at major costs, including the U.S. securities Bubble, a Bubble in European sovereign debt and unprecedented global leveraged speculation (how big is the “yen carry trade”?). Several weeks back there were indications that Global Financial Sphere fragility was resurfacing. And there were indications from Fed officials that more QE could be forthcoming, while Draghi and Kuroda came with more shock and awe monetary stimulus. The latest Fed, ECB and BoJ show did wonders for U.S. and Japanese stock prices. Yet yen and euro devaluation bolstered king dollar, much to the expense of commodity-related companies, currencies and countries. Russia’s ruble was hit again this week, as geopolitics turned only more disconcerting. There was also further indication of acute fragility unfolding in Brazil. The Brazilian real dropped 1.65% and 10-year (real) yields jumped another 36bps to 12.92%. Venezuela 10-year bond yields surged 123 bps to 19.73%. It’s also worth noting that Mexican stocks were hit for 2.8%. All in all, evidence mounts of serious EM vulnerability. I’m sticking with the view that the global Bubble has been pierced and that contagion risks are mounting. As for U.S. equities, the level of bullishness and complacency is just incredible. Apparently nothing can get in the way of the mighty year-end rally. Doug's must read weekly Credit Bubble Bulletin was posted on the prudentbear.com Internet site very late last night. Posted: 14 Nov 2014 09:45 PM PST Matterhorn Asset Management’s Egon von Greyerz out of Switzerland joins the show for a special episode this week covering the historic Swiss Referendum, discussing: Is the latest PM take-down ALL about the Swiss Referendum and portraying gold in as negative a light as possible to the Swiss people ahead of this month’s Swiss Referendum? Egon […] The post Egon von Greyerz on Historic Swiss Referendum: Marks the Final Exhaustion in Gold & Silver Manipulation! appeared first on Silver Doctors. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Oil down for a seventh week as WTI drops to $75 Posted: 14 Nov 2014 07:31 PM PST CNBC’s Jackie DeAngelis discusses the day’s activity in the commodities markets and looks ahead at where oil and precious metals are likely headed next week. WTI crude oil fell for the seventh week in a row hitting $75 and traders don’t think it has reached the bottom, while gold and silver rallied… |
| Swiss gold referendum and Russian buying rallies gold and silver prices Posted: 14 Nov 2014 07:25 PM PST Will the Swiss gold referendum send the precious metal soaring? The ‘yes’ polls are at 37 per cent but there are 15 days until the actual vote. Russian central bank buying also helped to rally the precious metals by the close. Is this the start of a major rally for gold and silver? Dissecting the play, with the Fast Money traders… |
| Posted: 14 Nov 2014 04:30 PM PST Nearly 3 years ago, with silver trading near $40/oz and gold near all-time nominal highs, SD gold & silver analyst Marshall Swing shocked the PM community by warning that silver would crash to $15/oz, then rocket past $1,000/oz as fiat collapses! Fast forward to Oct 31st, 2014, and silver has indeed crashed to a $15 handle. […] The post Silver Analyst Who Predicted Silver’s Crash to $15 Three Years Ago Says Massive Rally to $1,000/oz Next! appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Jim Willie: Fed Launches STEALTH QE4 Through TOKYO- Currency Reset & New Gold Standard Imminent! Posted: 14 Nov 2014 04:28 PM PST Simply put, QE can never be halted or even slowed. The USFed is in a corner, with no policy options, FACING COLLAPSE, with no ability whatsoever to halt the systemic failure in progress. The USDollar is fast losing its integrity, during a dangerous global rejection episode. Therefore, QE must be exported, the easy candidate Japan. […] The post Jim Willie: Fed Launches STEALTH QE4 Through TOKYO- Currency Reset & New Gold Standard Imminent! appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Harvey Organ: HUGE Gold & Silver Break-out! Posted: 14 Nov 2014 04:27 PM PST Gold and silver had a great day price wise. However it did not start out that way. The criminal bankers started early last night with gold being pushed back below the $1160 level reaching its nadir at around $1145 early in the comex session. Silver saw its lows at around 2:00 am (London fix time) at $15.30. […] The post Harvey Organ: HUGE Gold & Silver Break-out! appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Marshall Swing: PMs Will Not Be Allowed to Crash Until September 2015 Posted: 14 Nov 2014 03:25 PM PST All speculators should cover all the shorts they have right now to secure MASSIVE profits! But they won't. Why? The speculators really believe they can force the Commercials hand and pin their positions on them but that is not mathematically possible. They sense and even smell the blood of far lower spot prices in the future and they […] The post Marshall Swing: PMs Will Not Be Allowed to Crash Until September 2015 appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Watching for Evidence of a Shift in Sentiment Posted: 14 Nov 2014 02:58 PM PST For some time now the general sentiment in the broader markets has been that economic growth is slowing, in spite of Central Bank efforts to stimulate it. We have seen that in data coming especially out of the Eurozone. We have also seen it in Japan, whose Central Bank just recently evidenced how stubborn the deflationary pressures have been in their economy. Here in the US, last Friday's payroll numbers, which was mildly disappointing, the market reacted by selling the US Dollar with the thinking that the Fed would go slower on any potential rate hike. In the commodity markets, we have seen in sinking commodity indices in responses to sharp moves lower in crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline, grains, sugar, etc. across the board. Thus far the sentiment has been in which there is no inflation with the general threat being regarded by Central Bankers as one of deflation , or in their terms, disinflation. It is this sentiment which has resulted in money flows out of commodities in general and into equities. In attempting to discern when/if this sentiment might be changing, I have been closely monitoring both copper and crude oil prices. Just yesterday I mentioned that the close of copper below the $3.00 level was something that concerned me, especially with crude oil prices going into a downside freefall. Something else I watch is the action in the Australian Dollar. I view this currency as a sort of "quasi growth currency". The reason is because so much of Australia's economy is dependent on the export of the huge amount of raw materials it produces. Basically, if world economic growth is moving higher, especially growth in its neighbor China, the Aussie tends to benefit. The converse is true if growth is slowing. With that in mind, take a look at this intermediate term chart of the currency. Notice the sharp rise beginning in early 2009 which was when the Fed launched its first QE program. Optimism was high that it would be successful in liquefying the financial system and growth would ensue.  Somewhere along the line however, it dawned on markets that Central Bank efforts, including those of the ECB and BOJ, as well as stimulus efforts by China, were not having the intended effect. The currency then began a slow, grinding move lower. As of this week, it has surrendered exactly one half of its gains from the beginning of QE1, back in early 2009. So where from here? Good question. Today, there were two pieces of news that hit the market which came as bullish surprises for the economy. The first of these was Eurozone GDP numbers which, while still pitifully weak, were better than anticipated. The second was US retail sales, which surprised to the upside as well coming in at +0.3% for October compared to an expected +0.2% rise. Together, both pieces of data had the effect of pushing the Euro higher at the expense of the Dollar but it was especially was seen in the Nasdaq. That market has been lagging the S&P 500 and the DOW, which as the reader knows, have both made new lifetime highs this year. The Nasdaq has not. Today however it pushed up towards levels last seen in March 2000.  I am watching very closely to see if there is any sort of hint, that sentiment might therefore be shifting away from the "slowing growth" scenario to one of "the global economy is over the deflation scare and now will work towards one of growth". Please note that I am NOT saying such a sentiment is here; I am merely stating that to be successful at this business, one has to constantly gauge sentiment which influence money flows and money flows influence price. It is that simple, especially when it comes to silver, but even gold as well. Next week we are going to get some more pieces of economic data as well as the minutes from the Fed's October FOMC meeting. This will give us some fresh data to work with to see what kind of response the market has. My thinking is that if there is indeed any shift that has actually taking place, something of more significance than the price action of a single week, it will begin to show itself in the Australian Dollar chart and in copper and in crude oil. I noticed that crude oil cut yesterday's horrendous losses by half in today's session and that the XLE was up more than 1%. It is interesting to note that the XLE has performed much better overall than the price of crude itself. Today looked a lot like some big players were taking the opportunity to renew their exposure to the energy sector. Remember, silver needs a "solid growth environment", one in which inflation dominates, rather than disinflation or deflation, if it is to thrive. In my view, silver is NOT a safe haven. If the sentiment begins to shifts towards one of slow but steady global growth, silver will probably bottom down here. If the sentiment is a short term phenomenon and we start getting more evidence of economic stalling, it is going back down again. Time will of course make things clear, but I would strongly caution would be silver bulls who are constantly warning us about how crappy the US economy really is and how the stock market is really just a huge bubble, to be careful what they wish for in terms of stocks. they really seem to believe that if stock prices implode silver will soar and therefore are always rooting for equities to tumble as they constantly nitpick and criticize anything positive about the US economy that might actually happen to be reported. Let me just say this - If equities were to fall out of bed because markets begin fearing overpriced stock valuation in a slow growth environment, guess which way silver is going? Hint - it ain't higher! |
| Jim Willie: Fed Launches STEALTH QE4 Through TOKYO- Currency Reset & New Gold Standard Imminent! Posted: 14 Nov 2014 02:39 PM PST
Click here for more from Jim Willie on the Fed launching STEALTH QE4 Through Tokyo: |
| BO POLNY: With Gold’s $1180 Triple Bottom Broken, Is the Gold Bull Market Over? Posted: 14 Nov 2014 02:30 PM PST Gold's triple bottom support at $1180, that was not expected to break, broke on October 31, 2014 and Gold has since been trading UNDER the $1180 support level. Now what? Has the 14-Year Gold Bull Market come to an end? The Perfect Holiday Gift for 2014: Royal Canadian Mint Holiday Snowman Submitted by […] The post BO POLNY: With Gold's $1180 Triple Bottom Broken, Is the Gold Bull Market Over? appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Megaphone Top in Equities, Bottom in Junior Gold Miners? Posted: 14 Nov 2014 02:18 PM PST GoldStockTrades |
| Silver’s Long Lost Monetary Role – Let’s Make Some Real Money! Posted: 14 Nov 2014 02:00 PM PST Imagine, a currency of coins with functionality just like the coins and bills in your wallet today, but accepted globally, and not subject to fiat inflation, on the contrary: even inherently deflationary. A truly "hard" global currency. "It isn’t hard to do". Silver…the forgotten real money of yesteryear. Submitted by XC Skater All over the euro […] The post Silver’s Long Lost Monetary Role – Let’s Make Some Real Money! appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Avoid this accident waiting to happen in investment markets Posted: 14 Nov 2014 01:45 PM PST Trillions of dollars' worth of equities and bonds now sport prices that can no longer be trusted in any way, having been roundly boosted, squeezed, coaxed and manipulated for the dubious ends of quantitative easing. The most important characteristic of any investment is the price at which it is bought, which will ultimately determine whether […] The post Avoid this accident waiting to happen in investment markets appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Posted: 14 Nov 2014 01:40 PM PST The first trumpet blast of the “Clarion Call” to the truth in the PM markets has sounded… Submitted by The Wealth Watchman: A New Weapon in the Watchman's Arsenal This is the Watchman, proudly announcing the release of the first trumpet blast of the "Clarion Call" to the Truth HQ! The Clarion Call will be […] The post The Clarion Call appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Posted: 14 Nov 2014 01:30 PM PST What we'll likely face dead ahead, calls for an emergency post. Submitted by The Wealth Watchman: I've had such a strong foreboding feeling the last several days, that I feel I cannot ignore it. The last series had ended in a good place, anyway. So I'm going to pen a warning instead. What follows is a […] The post A Warning from the Watchman appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Posted: 14 Nov 2014 12:59 PM PST If this keeps up, watch for the CME Group to raise margins on gold futures contracts soon. Volatility is sitting at more than a one year high in gold. Option guys take note.  |
| Struggling miners see silver lining in FX, cheaper oil Posted: 14 Nov 2014 12:15 PM PST Likely to help trim their costs. |
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