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Thursday, October 16, 2014

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


James Rawles : Ebola Could Trigger Global Meltdown

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 10:46 PM PDT

Alex Jones talks with James Wesley Rawles about the Ebola threat and what he believes the cause for the continued incompetence is.

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50-Year Veteran Predicted Stock Plunge Last Week: What Now?

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 09:02 PM PDT

Today a 50-year market veteran, who last Thursday astonishingly predicted that a "cascade" of panic selling would engulf the stock market, warned King World News that this is still an extremely "nervous market." He also gave the exact level that will trigger the next "cascade" of panic selling to the downside and discussed the historic action in the bond and gold markets. Below is what Cashin, who is Director of Floor Operations at UBS ($650 billion under management), had to say in this timely and powerful interview.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Magnus on a New Dollar “Bull” Market and Alpert on Growing Global Weakness

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 09:00 PM PDT

from Boom Bust:

WORLDWIDE FIAT IMPLOSION: HOW HIGH CAN SILVER GO?

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 08:43 PM PDT

from SGT Report.com:

“It looks like the end game is starting,” says MilesFranklin’s Andy Hoffman. “Bond yields around the world have now hit an average an all-time low. The most damning proof yet of QE failure is out there for the world to see. I don’t think anyone is left that’s actually saying “recovery” any more because it’s obvious, you’re seeing crashing commodities, crashing currencies, crashing bond yields, now crashing stock prices… the whole propaganda game is broken… The powers that be are LOSING CONTROL OF PAPER MARKETS.” Join us as Andy also answers the question, “How high can silver go?”

We’re Coming to the End Game — John Williams

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 08:03 PM PDT

from USA Watchdog:

Economist John Williams is sticking by his assessment that the economy is in deep trouble.

Williams says, "What we are seeing is a very big fiction by the financial media and the political media that the economy has recovered. The economy has not recovered. . . . We are seeing all sorts of things that indicate the economy is not recovering and never has recovered, and it is turning down again."

On the recent wild gyrations of the stock market, Williams says, "I can't give you good reason for why the stock market is as high as it is. The fact you are seeing this volatility means there are a lot of people who are very nervous about what is going on and where things are in the market. It is probably one of the great bubbles of all time. It most likely will collapse along the lines of the U.S. dollar in response to the reality of no economic recovery. . . . I can't think of a more vulnerable market than what we are seeing here."

Read More @ USAWatchdog.com

9 Ominous Signals Coming From The Financial Markets That We Have Not Seen In Years

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 05:30 PM PDT

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Is the stock market about to crash?  Hopefully not, and there definitely have been quite a few "false alarms" over the past few years.  But without a doubt we have been living through one of the greatest financial bubbles in U.S. history, and the markets are absolutely primed for a full-blown crash.  That doesn't mean that one will happen now, but we are starting to see some ominous things happen in the financial world that we have not seen happen in a very long time

So many of the same patterns that we witnessed just prior to the bursting of the dotcom bubble and just prior to the 2008 financial crisis are repeating themselves again.  Hopefully we still have at least a little bit more time before stocks completely crash, because when this market does implode it is going to be a doozy.

The following are 9 ominous signals coming from the financial markets that we have not seen in years...

#1 By the time the markets closed on Monday, we had witnessed the biggest three day decline for U.S. stocks since 2011.

#2 On Monday, the S&P 500 moved below its 200 day moving average for the first time in about two years.  The last time this happened after such an extended streak of success, the S&P 500 ended up declining by a total of 22 percent.

#3 This week the put-call ratio actually moved higher than it was at any point during the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.  This is an indication that there is a tremendous amount of fear on Wall Street right now.

#4 Everybody is watching the VIX at the moment.  According to the Economic Policy Journal, the VIX has now risen to the highest level that it has been since the heart of the European debt crisis.  This is another indicator that there is extraordinary fear on Wall Street...

US stock market volatility has jumped to the highest since the eurozone debt crisis, according to a closely watched index, the the CBOE Vix index of implied US share price volatility.

It jumped to 24.6 late on Monday and is up again this morning. On Thursday, it was as low as 15.

 

That's a very strong move, but things have been much worse. At height of the recent financial crisis – the Vix index peaked at 80.1 in November 2008.

 

Could we get there again? Yeah.

#5 The price of oil is crashing.  This also happened in 2008 just before the financial crisis erupted.  At this point, the price of oil is now the lowest that it has been in more than two years.

#6 As Chris Kimble has pointed out, the chart for the Dow has formed a "Doji Star topping pattern".  We also saw this happen in 2007.  Could this be an indication that we are on the verge of another stock market crash similar to what happened in 2008?

#7 Canadian stocks are actually doing even worse than U.S. stocks.  At this point, Canadian stocks have already dropped more than 10 percent from the peak of the market.

#8 European stocks have also had a very rough month.  For example, German stocks have already dropped about 10 percent since July, and there are growing concerns about the overall health of the German economy.

#9 The wealthy are hoarding cash and precious metals right now.  In fact, one British news report stated that sales of gold bars to wealthy customers are up 243 percent so far this year.

So what comes next?

Some experts are saying that this is the perfect time to buy stocks at value prices.  For example, USA Today published a story with the following headline on Tuesday: "Time to 'buy' the fear? One Wall Street pro says yes".

Other experts, however, believe that this could represent a major turning point for the financial markets.

Just consider what Abigail Doolittle recently told CNBC...

Technical strategist Abigail Doolittle is holding tight to her prediction of market doom ahead, asserting that a recent move in Wall Street's fear gauge is signaling the way.

 

Doolittle, founder of Peak Theories Research, has made headlines lately suggesting a market correction worse than anyone thinks is ahead. The long-term possibility, she has said, is a 60 percent collapse for the S&P 500.

 

In early August, Doolittle was warning both of a looming "super spike" in the CBOE Volatility Index as well as a "death cross" in the 10-year Treasury note. The former referenced a sharp move higher in the "VIX," while the latter used Wall Street lingo for an event that already occurred in which the fixed income benchmark saw its 50-day moving average cross below its 200-day trend line.

 

Both, she said, served as indicators for trouble ahead.

Are we about to witness a stock market crash and another major financial crisis?

Or is this just another "false alarm" that will soon fade?

Silver and Gold Prices are Steadily Advancing with the Gold Price Closing Up at $1,244.10

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 05:00 PM PDT

15-Oct-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,244.1010.500.85%
Silver Price, $/oz17.420.060.36%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.4380.3500.49%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0140-0.0001-0.49%
Platinum Price1,261.40-10.90-0.86%
Palladium Price763.40-30.25-3.81%
S&P 5001,862.49-15.21-0.81%
Dow16,141.74-173.45-1.06%
Dow in GOLD $s268.21-5.19-1.90%
Dow in GOLD oz12.97-0.25-1.90%
Dow in SILVER oz926.89-13.31-1.42%
US Dollar Index85.08-0.97-1.13%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Sorry, I'm running late so have no time to prettify this.

The GOLD PRICE rose $10.50 (0.85%) and silver rose 0.35% (oddly similar to yesterday, no?) or 6.2 cents to $17.415

Silver and GOLD PRICES are steadily, steadily advancing, I doubt not harassed by the NGM trying to slow them down. But NGM or the Easter Bunny, the SILVER PRICE must advance through $18.00 and gold through $1,300. Gold crossed above that next resistance barrier at $1,237 today. Higher is coming. Better buy some, just in case (as I currently believe) 3 October was their bottom.

Think about it: if you were the Nice Government Men charged with keeping the world from blowing apart before you quit at 5:00, what would you do?

Stocks today cratered, the Dow at one point had lost 460 points, but thank heaven, some deep pocketed buyer reached in there and brought it back up to close on 173.45 (-1.06%) down at 16,141.74. S&P lost 15.21 (0.81%) to 1,862.49

And I suspect the NGM were busy in the metals market today, because platinum lost 10.90 and palladium 30.85. The platinum market was where in 1987 they attacked gold (this was reported in the Wall Street Journal, as I remember) by shorting the platinum market, which hoodwinked those watching to sell gold.

US Dollar index tanked today on bad economic news that left folks thinking the Fed would continue its ZIRP a little longer. Fear overflowed into the junk bond markets today where they crashed, too. Dollar fell a gigantical 0.97% or 83 basis points to 85.08. Euro rose 1.34% to $1.2828 and the yen added another 1.07% to 94.36.

Dow in gold and Dow in silver tanked, down to G$268.73 (13.00 oz) and S$1,196.68 (925.56 oz), down 1.4%. Technically both have put the pedal to the metal in those downtrends.

Stock market tanking, dollar tanking, junk bonds tanking, treasury bonds soaring. Today was not exactly a panic, but today was a mighty and terrifying unravelling. Tomorrow will unravel more. The whole sweater's in trouble.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Fighting back, First Majestic delays sale of silver amid price weakness

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 02:57 PM PDT

In this morning's mail bag we received this heads-up from Todd Anthony of First Majestic Silver Corp a post that appeared on GATA:

7:42p ET Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Ninety-nine point nine percent of gold and silver mining companies and their executives are brain-dead, merely geologists and accountants, unaware of the monetary nature of their product and how their product is priced by surreptitious market intervention by central banks. But here and there certain companies and their executives have a clue, and First Majestic Silver Corp. today again proclaimed itself to have far more than a clue.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: World economy so damaged it may need permanent QE

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 02:41 PM PDT

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Wednesday, October 15, 2014

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11165982/World-economy-so-d...

Combined tightening by the United States and China has done its worst. Global liquidity is evaporating.

What looked liked a gentle tap on the brakes by the two monetary superpowers has proved too much for a fragile world economy, still locked in "secular stagnation." The latest investor survey by Bank of America shows that fund managers no longer believe that the European Central Bank will step into the breach with quantitative easing of its own, at least on a worthwhile scale.

Markets are suddenly prey to the disturbing thought that the 5 1/2-year expansion since the Lehman crisis may already be over, before Europe has regained its prior level of output. That is the chief reason why the price of Brent crude has crashed by 25 percent since June. It is why yields on 10-year US Treasuries have fallen to 1.96 percent, and why German Bunds are pricing in perma-slump at historic lows of 0.81 percent this week.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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We will find out soon whether or not this a replay of 1937 when the authorities drained stimulus too early, and set off the second leg of the Great Depression.

If this growth scare presages the end of the cycle, the consequences will be hideous for France, Italy, Spain, Holland, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, and others already in deflation, or close to it. The higher their debt ratios, the worse the damage.

Forward-looking credit swaps already suggest that the US Federal Reserve will not be able to raise interest rates next year, or the year after, or ever, one might say. It is starting to look as if the withdrawal of $85 billion of bond purchases each month is already tantamount to a normal cycle of rate rises, enough in itself to trigger a downturn.

Put another way, it is possible that the world economy is so damaged that it needs permanent QE just to keep the show on the road.

Traders are taking bets on capitulation by the Fed as it tries to find new excuses to delay rate rises, this time by talking down the dollar. "Talk of 'QE4' and renewed bond buying is doing the rounds," said Kit Juckes from Societe Generale.

Gentle declines in the price of oil are typically benign, a shot in the arm for companies and consumers alike. The rule of thumb is that each $10 drop in the price adds 0.3 percent to GDP growth over the next year.

Crashes are another story. They signal global stress, doubly dangerous today because the whole industrial world is one shock away from a deflation trap, a psychological threshold where we batten down the hatches and wait for cheaper prices. That is the Ninth Circle of Hell in economics. Lasciate ogni speranza.

The world is also more stretched. Morgan Stanley calculates that gross global leverage has risen from $105 trillion to $150 trillion since 2007. Debt has risen to 275 percent of GDP in the rich world, and to 175 percent in emerging markets. Both are up 20 percentage points since 2007, and both are historic records. The Bank for International Settlements warns that the world is on a hair trigger. The slightest loss of liquidity can have "violent" effects.

Saudi Arabia has clearly shifted strategy, aiming to force high-cost producers out of business across the globe rather than defend OPEC cartel prices by slashing its own output to offset rises in Libyan supply. Bank of America thinks the Saudis are targeting $85 a barrel, partly to squeeze three enemies, Iran, Russia, and the Caliphate.

If crude prices stay low for long, almost all the major oil producers will have to start dipping into their foreign reserves to fund their welfare states and military apparatus. The "fiscal break-even" price needed to cover the budget is $130 for Iran, $115 for Algeria and Bahrain, $105 for Iraq, Russia, and Nigeria, and almost $100 even for Abu Dhabi. The Saudis themselves are probably well above $90 by now.

This means that they will have to sell holdings of foreign bonds, assets, and gold to plug the gap. Russia has run through $7 billion in recent days defending the rouble. The scale of this could be huge, and it comes at a time when China has stopped accumulating reserves for its own reasons, taking away the biggest global source of fresh purchases.

Nor does the chain reaction stop there. Lower prices chill the US shale industry, which has lifted US (liquids) output from 7 million barrels a day (b/d) to 11.6 million since 2008 and turned America into the world's biggest producer. Bank of America says the pain starts at around $75 for the most costly fields. "Shale oil output is very sensitive to price conditions," it said.

The US Energy Department says oil and gas companies have been amassing huge debts drilling for marginal output in ever more hostile regions. Net debt rose $106 billion in the year to March, on top of $73 billion of asset sales. Yet revenues were stagnating even when crude prices were above $100. The fossil fuel nexus has spent $5 trillion since 2008, and much of this is at risk. It has in itself become a systemic threat.

Yet the oil crash is not merely a supply story. "There has been a rapid collapse of demand," said Edwin Morse from Citigroup. The International Energy Agency says demand fell by 50,000 b/d in France, and 45,000 b/d in Italy in August, below earlier estimates. China's oil demand is no longer rising by half a million b/d each year. It has slowed to a quarter a million.

The global slowdown has caught the global authorities off-guard, as it always does. Above all, it has confounded the central banking fraternity. In thrall to "creditism," it insists that QE works by forcing down interest rates across the maturity curve. Ergo, Fed tapering does not matter so long as rates stay low. By the same logic, ECB policy is "accommodative" because rates have collapsed, a claim that would have Milton Friedman turning in his grave.

Monetarists say this is a cardinal error, bound to cause serial mishaps. Indeed, Robert Hetzel from the Richmond Fed blames the Lehman crisis and all that followed on monetary overkill in early to mid-2008, arguing in his book "The Great Recession" that the Fed ignored the warning signs that M2 money was buckling.

We forget that the Venetian Grain Board regulated commerce over the centuries by altering the quantity of money, not interest rates. So did the Bank of England in the 18th century, injecting liquidity when Easterly winds brought ships into London. The Bank continued to target the quantity of money in the early 20th century when QE was known as open market operations. Quantity was Friedman's lodestar in his great opus.

Quantity is not doing very well. The Center for Financial Stability in New York says "Divisia M4" -- its measure of broad money growth -- has fallen to 2.5 percent from around 6 percent in early 2013. The US economy can perhaps handle some loss of dollar liquidity. The world as a whole cannot. There are $11 trillion of cross-border loans outstanding, and two thirds are still in US dollars. Emerging-market companies have borrowed a further $2 trillion in dollars since 2008.

China is no longer tightening, but it is not loosening much either. It is actively steering down the growth rate of M2 money even though house prices have been falling for five months, industrial output has stalled, and factory gate inflation has dropped to minus 1.8 percent. President Xi Jinping seems resolved to break China's credit bubble early in his 10-year term, come what may. This will not be pretty. Standard Charted says debt has reached 250 percent of GDP, off the charts for a developing economy.

Property curbs have been lifted. The central bank has injected small bursts of liquidity into the banking system. But this time China has not let rip with credit from the state banking system to keep the game going. "We cannot rely again on increasing liquidity to stimulate economic growth," Premier Li said last month.

He is targeting jobs, not growth, willing to deflate the economy and purge excess capacity in the steel and shipbuilding industries as long as unemployment does not rise much above 5 percent. This may be the right course for China, but it is an unpleasant shock for those across the globe who feed the dragon for a living.

China will eventually blink if the slowdown deepens, and so will the Fed in Washington. First the markets will have to learn the hard way that they have mispriced the reality of a broken global economy.

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5 Reasons Why Stocks Are Falling

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 02:12 PM PDT

Ed. Note: The market is  going through a rough patch right now. Stocks are tumbling, investor confidence is slumping and the whole U.S. economy seems to hang in the balance. Here are 5 reasons this is happening… and why it’s NOT the end of the world…

1. The U.S. Senate. Despite President Obama's abysmal approval ratings on all fronts, Republican capture of the Senate — if some polls are to be believed — is suddenly in doubt. That South Dakota, once a surefire GOP pickup, is in play is the latest shock to Republican hopes. A GOP-dominated upper house would severely limit Obama's ability to do more harm, which would be great for equities.

2. Misbehavior by the Fed. Fed hints that it will continue to muck up credit markets is a setback to job-creating new and small businesses.

3. The profit picture is getting blurry. Reported profits are, overall, still moving up, but the more realistic measure of earnings — the Bureau of Economic Analysis' national income and product accounts — is gloomy. NIPA numbers come from tax returns; thus, there's no incentive for companies to inflate their bottom lines.

4. World economies are a mess. Germany's economic growth is coming to a stop, and the rest of the European continent is either in recession or barely showing a pulse. Brazil is slumping, as is Japan. China's economic growth is problematical. India's new reform government has been overly cautious, so far. The U.S. economy is still stuck in a 2.5% growth rut.

5. The world security situation is worsening. Our President — who, in comparison, makes Jimmy Carter look like a Ronald Reagan — resolutely sticks to his adolescent far-left worldview, that the U.S. is a global menace and must therefore take an isolationist stance. The bungling of the Ebola outbreak only underscores the sense that things are drifting dangerously.

Not all is gloom and doom, however. The GOP, in spite of itself, will do well next month. While earnings aren't surging, corporate balance sheets are in excellent shape. Any positive change in business taxes next year — there's a congressional consensus on this — would unleash a torrent of new investment. Following the elections look for intense pressure on the White House — from both parties — for it to do more overseas, such as arming beleaguered Ukraine.

At any rate, trying to time the market is a fool's game. Ride the storm. After 2016 the U.S. will experience a Reaganesque revival. Markets will go up before then in anticipation of a better era ahead.

Regards,

Steve Forbes
for The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: Okay… So stocks are falling right now. But that doesn’t mean you need to panic. Quite the opposite, in fact. There are plenty of safe places to put your money right now, no matter what’s going on in the markets. And readers of the FREE Daily Reckoning email edition are given regular opportunities to discover these safe-haven plays, in every single issue. Don’t miss out on your chance to discover them for yourself. Click here to sign up for The Daily Reckoning, for FREE, right now.

(See Steve Forbes' new book, Money: How the Destruction of the Dollar Threatens the Global Economy — And What We Can Do About It.)

This article originally appeared here on Forbes.com

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Swiss National Bank Fights To Block Public Gold Vote

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 02:12 PM PDT

The Correlation Between The Gold Price and Bitcoins

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 01:58 PM PDT

We recently noticed in an analysis that gold and bitcoin prices were highly correlated (now at +0.80), and were curious to see how we could take this a step further.

To begin, we have a limited set of variables, so we must make our own.  Something I thought interesting to look at the vector of price changes of gold and bitcoin: the direction and magnitude.  However it goes one step forward and we examine the correlation of these newly created variables.  This could provide us with further insight into the bitcoin-gold relationship.

Defintions

Let's start with defining what our output will mean:

  • Percent change: Describes what direction and the magnitude of each asset's price change over time.
  • Correlation: Describes how the two asset classes are moving, together or in opposite directions, and by what magnitude.  This is denoted by either a positive, negative, or zero value

bitcoin gold 2014 money currency

We chose to look at data from after March 2014 considering that information from before this period is skewed from the massive run up and decline caused by the MtGox exchange hacking.  That period is not representative of bitcoin's true nature.  We also note that the analyzed data was looked at with a 30-day moving period to generate the values.  Without doing this, our output look look erratic and we are more concerned with the general trend.

Our Observations

In mid-September, there seems to be a sudden change to a positive correlation. Our magnitudes of change appear to become more alike in size and direction.  There are 30 days of data calculated in generating the correlation. Therefore, the speed of this change suggests a significant shift in the that calculates the correlation value.  What does this mean? We think that it may show that gold and bitcoin have been making large price movements together. 

Possible Causes

Given the recent macroeconomic announcements and news, from the slowing global economy to the Fed's monetary policy stance, both these assets seem to be responding in a similar fashion to exogenous variables.   It has gained more legitimacy, attention, and is being invested in by seasoned investors like hedge funds.  All this could suggest that bitcoin is maturing into a commodity asset, like gold.

 

Written by one of our newest contributors, Michael Mansour from DigitalTangible which is is a brand new marketplace where users can list their gold bullion confidently and buyers, anywhere in the world, can find premium gold deals at lower prices for immediate purchase and delivery.  As of today, DigitalTangible is offering silver bullion and coins on their platform.  They allow rapid purchase and liquidation on their Peer-to-Peer marketplace and their cryptocurrency based partner exchange, so customers can change their position in under 24 hours with bitcoin. DigitalTangible offers these precious metals through its network of partner dealers that include Amagi Metals and Agora Commodities, and accepts payment in cash or bitcoin.

Gold Bullion Producers Offer A Great Buying Opportunity

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 01:56 PM PDT

Submitted by Michael Lombardi from ProfitConfidential:

The fundamentals for higher gold bullion prices continue to impress. The table below illustrates the output from U.S. mines in the first six months of 2014 compared to the first six months of 2013.

In the below chart, we quickly see that since March of 2014, production of the precious metal has been quickly declining. Meanwhile, on the demand side of the equation, we see increased demand for gold bullion from the East—especially from China.

China recently launched a gold bullion market on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) for international investors. The goal of this exchange is to gain more control over the price of the precious metal in yuan (the official currency of China). China wants to have price control over gold bullion, just like the West does with their daily settings in New York and London.

gold output 2014 investing

For seven years in a row, the SGE has been the top spot for gold bullion trading in the global economy. In 2013, the volume at the exchange reached 11,600 tons.

Quality gold bullion mining companies continue to offer significant value. Some of the most well-known miners are selling for pennies on the dollar. Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE/GG), selling for $23.00 a share for a market cap of just over $18.5 billion, is a great example.

If we just look at the proven and probable reserves of the company, it had 54.38 million ounces as of December 31, 2013. (Source: Goldcorp Inc. web site, last accessed October 7, 2014.) These reserves alone amount to $65.2 billion at a price of $1,200 an ounce of gold. And the company has massive silver reserves, too.

In respect to gold bullion, I would like to offer you these words from my esteemed colleague and gold guru, Robert Appel, BA, BBA, LLB:

"Wasn't it just late 2011, three years ago, when gold bullion was selling at $1,900 an ounce and almost every advisory on the planet was bullish on gold?

What's happened since then?

Well, the economic recovery has failed, if we take out the fake numbers. The number of people who have left the workforce is at levels not seen for 30 years. There is food and medical inflation, but few talk about it, and there has been a massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the elites.

Europe and Japan have collapsed and ditto for Argentina and Venezuela. We have a potential world war in Ukraine and ISIS has taken back Iraq. It seems the U.S. president has recently preferred Iran over the Saudis, which jeopardizes the petro-dollar. Russia and China are taking active, ongoing steps to bypass the greenback, and Ebola is loose.

Against all this unpleasant backdrop, gold bullion is down almost 40%, sentiment is at depths never before seen, and the only two remaining bulls on the planet may be myself and Michael Lombardi.

The shares of quality gold bullion producers, which have been severely oversold, offer investors a great opportunity to buy low before they sell high.

Fleckenstein - Expect The Stock Market Collapse To Accelerate

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 12:28 PM PDT

Today Bill Fleckenstein spoke about why all hell is breaking loose in major markets. Below Fleckenstein, who is President of Fleckenstein Capital, lays out exactly why the insanity is continuing to take place and does so in a way that only he can. This interview is Fleckenstein at his best.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

An Insider Report from the World’s Largest Ebola Symposium

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 10:23 AM PDT

Reporting from Johns Hopkins' Ebola Symposium…

Yes. We made it in the symposium (did you doubt us?).

Apparently, simply telling them you're with the media goes a long way.

They only started organizing this event seven days ago, the organizer said as she showed us to our seats.

This is the first time they've pulled an event together so quickly. Must be urgent.

Now we're currently sitting inside the largest Ebola symposium in the world. The room is packed full of epidemiologists, virologists, professors, scientists, students, and even a few family doctors.

The View from Inside the Largest Ebola Symposium in the World

If you tuned in yesterday, we reported in from a coffee shop within the Johns Hopkins Hospital campus just before we were about to make our way in.

Fast-forward an hour and we're sitting inside the symposium with more doctors than the entire country of Liberia.

We're serious.

In 2006, after trying to recover from a savage civil war, Liberia clocked in with a total of about 50 doctors. Yes, in the entire country.

As Martin Robbins wrote on the Vice blog yesterday, "you'd struggle to find a worse place for an outbreak to happen if you tried."

Here's what the world's leaders in medicine had to say…

"Ebola is the WHO's Sept. 11," Dr. Michael Osterholm announced from the podium.

"It will redefine the role of the WHO from this point on."

Dr. Osterholm is the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

Dr. Osterholm - Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of MinnesotaSource: JHU
Dr. Osterholm. Definitely the most candid of the bunch

He's also the author of the New York Times best-selling book Living Terrors: What America Needs to Know to Survive the Coming Bioterrorist Catastrophe.

He's known in the medical circles as one of the biggest critics of the lackadaisical and contradictory claims put out by the CDC and WHO about the Ebola crisis.

And the picture he paints of a future Africa is dark.

All of Africa is brewing a perfect storm for a continent-wide Ebola pandemic…

Let's tick off the reasons…

First, on Monday, Osterholm reported, Liberian health care workers went on strike because of lack of gloves, masks, and goggles.

A mind-blowing 80% of them are expected to work with highly infectious Ebola victims without the proper protection. We're talking about even the bare essentials here: gloves, gowns and bleach.

"If we can get iPhones delivered across the world in a day… why can't we get equipment to Liberia?"

"If we can get iPhones delivered across the world in a day," he said, "why can't we get equipment to Liberia?" Osterholm asked, chastising the world's response to the crisis.

We live in a country where we can give $384,949 to Yale University so they can study "Sexual Conflict, Social Behavior and the Evolution of Waterfowl Genitalia."

(This happened last year. The researchers looked at… I'm not kidding… the 'plasticity in duck penis length'.)

Yet they twiddle their thumbs for two weeks about spending a fraction of that to buy bleach and rubber gloves.

Proving that the so-called arbiter of humankind is only as quick to react as its self-interest will allow.

Meanwhile, Firestone Tire and Rubber Company has done more to help out with Ebola than Uncle Sam.

Yeah… Firestone.

"When it comes to Ebola," Jason Beaubien wrote on NPR's blog, "the rubber met the road at the Firestone rubber plantation in Harbel, Liberia.

"Harbel is a company town not far from the capital city of Monrovia. It was named in 1926 after the founder of the Firestone Tire and Rubber Company, Harvey and his wife, Idabelle.

"Today," Jason writes, "Firestone workers and their families make up a community of 80,000 people across the plantation.

"Firestone detected its first Ebola case on March 30, when an employee’s wife arrived from northern Liberia. She’d been caring for a disease-stricken woman and was herself diagnosed with the disease.

"Since then Firestone has done a remarkable job of keeping the virus at bay. It built its own treatment center and set up a comprehensive response that’s managed to quickly stop transmission."

This is only one example of the private sector leading the way to stop transmission. Nearly all the funding for new clinics is coming out of the private sector. One example is a group of 30 companies that was formed in August.

"Corporate and commercial firms have banded together to better coordinate efforts to eliminate Ebola in Liberia," the All Africa blog reports. "The group, calling itself the Ebola Private Sector Mobilization Group (EPSMG), recently formed with the intent to support the government of Liberia and the Liberian people during this time of crisis."

"The current Ebola virus' hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500-1,000 years," Osterholm recently wrote in an Op-Ed for NYT last month.

If certain mutations occurred… infections could spread quickly to every part of the globe…

"Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice. If certain mutations occurred… infections could spread quickly to every part of the globe, as the H1N1 influenza virus did in 2009, after its birth in Mexico."

Another speaker, Peter Jahrling, Chief Scientist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases' Integrated Research Facility, is also worried about how the virus is mutating…

His first concern arose when his team ran tests on patients in Liberia.

According to what they found, this Ebola strain appeared to carry a much higher "viral load" than previous strains. Meaning the virus is taking over much more of its victims' blood than prior strains — potentially making it much more contagious.

"If true," he said in a recent interview with Vox, "that's a very different bug…

"I have a field team in Monrovia. They are running [tests]. They are telling me that viral loads are coming up very quickly and really high, higher than they are used to seeing. It turns out that in limited studies with the evacuated patients, they continued to express virus in blood and semen. What does that mean? Right now, we just don't know.

"You can argue that any time the virus replicates it's going to mutate. So there is a potential for the thing to acquire an aerogenic property, but that would have to be a dramatic change."

But dramatic changes are this particular strains' modus operandi…

Early in the outbreak, a group of researchers looked at how the virus was changing in Sierra Leone. They discovered that there had already been more than 300 genetic mutations.

"It's frightening to look at how much this virus has mutated within just three weeks," Dr. Pardis Sabeti, an associate professor at Harvard, told CNN at the time.

Yeah… they're saying it has the potential to go airborne…

"We have never been in a position to determine if airborne transmission is possible," said Dr. Osterholm.

But he's not ruling it out. And he said we shouldn't let the possibility escape our minds. Because if it were to happen, we would need a concerted global action to stop it.

Imagine an airplane with just one person carrying the airborne virus. All that recycled air would likely infect every single person on that plane. Then all those people disperse at the next airport and get on a new plane. Ad infinitum.

Less than 21 days later, there are outbreaks in every corner of the world.

He said that many professionals are discounting it as if it were impossible. It's not.

"Imagine," Dr. C.J. Peters, a virologist at the University of Texas, said along the same lines, "every time you copy an essay, you change a word or two. Eventually, it's going to change the meaning of an essay."

Osterholm brought up one example of airborne denial in an article by New York Times columnist Carl Zimmer, who, in one tweet, summed up his opinion on the matter:

NY Times Columnist Carl Zimmer Tweets Denial About Ebola Becoming Airborne

It's not that simple, said Osterholm. But debunking Zimmer's statement is.

  1. Wolves aren't viruses
  2. Wolves don't mutate rapidly after infecting hosts
  3. Because wolves aren't viruses

"[Ebola going airborne is] the single greatest concern I've ever had in my 40-year public health career," Osterholm told CNN recently.

"I can't imagine anything in my career — and this includes HIV — that would be more devastating to the world than a respiratory transmissible Ebola virus."

Even more frightening is how quickly the virus has spread in just the past three weeks…

Upon writing, there have been well over 4,400 deaths from this outbreak.

Incredibly, 40% of these cases have happened in the past three weeks.

And it's about to get a lot worse (more on that in a moment).

And if the U.S. government is honest, says Dr. Osterholm, they're pretty clueless as to how to help.

"The virus has hardly pinged us until now. Yet we act like we know so much about it," said Dr. Osterholm.

"I know a hell of a lot less about Ebola than I did six months ago," he admitted to the crowd.

"If West Africa was a tank of gas waiting for a match to hit it… the rest of Africa is a tanker."

This is despite, he said, poring over 900 papers on the deadly disease.

In contrast, the CDC and the WHO — the two government organizations who have been the most vocal about our "handle" on the situation — are secretly flailing around trying to keep up appearances.

But all the blush in the world isn't going to stop what could come to the entire continent of Africa… and then, potentially, the world.

"If West Africa was a tank of gas waiting for a match to hit it," Dr. Osterholm said, "the rest of Africa is a tanker."

Get this…

Every year, hundreds of thousands of workers migrate from East Africa to West Africa and back, looking for work.

And now… during the absolute worst of the infection… it's time for migration.

"Each year," Osterholm wrote in late September, "thousands of young West African men and boys are part of a migratory work population not too dissimilar from U.S. migrant farm workers. "Crop-friendly rains wash over West Africa from May-October, forming the growing season.

"These young men typically help with harvesting in their home villages from August to early October, but afterward head off for temporary jobs in artisanal gold mines in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Ghana; cocoa nut and palm oil plantations in Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire; palm date harvesting and fishing in Mauritania and Senegal; and illicit charcoal production in Senegal, Mali, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

"The migration is about to begin, even for young men whose villages have been recently hit by [Ebola]. These workers find daily laborer jobs at $5 per day, half of which they remit to their families back home. Like their ancestors before them, they use little-known routes and layovers through forests to avoid frontier checkpoints.

"They usually have ECOWAS ID cards, providing free passage to all member states of the Economic Community of West African States. It takes one to three days to travel from the EVD-affected countries to these work destinations. There is no need for Ebola to hop on an airplane to move across Africa: it can travel by foot.

"Control of Ebola," says Dr. David Peters, MD, chair of the Department of International Health at Johns Hopkins, "actually depends on a community-based containment care strategy."

Dr. Peters wasn't offering idle speculation.

He was quoting the minister of health in Congo, Dr. Felix Kabange Numbi, who has seen his fair share of Ebola outbreaks.

Dr. Numbi says that the current outbreak marks the seventh time the people in DR Congo have dealt with Ebola since its identification in 1976.

Monday, Numbi held a press conference to announce there have been no new cases of Ebola for 20 days.

"This already shows that the disease is under control even if we do not talk about eradication, because you have to wait 42 days after the last case," he said.

The last official tally reported a total of 71 cases, with 43 of them resulting in death.

The DR Congo’s apparent control of the disease is good news…

"The current virus," Osterholm said, "is completely different from any strain we've seen."

But the strain of Ebola in the Congo is different than what's currently ravaging West Africa.

According to one speaker, Trish Perl, a professor of medicine and senior epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins, the virus in the Congo has been traced back to a pregnant mother who contracted it when she ate bush meat.

The one spreading through Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea is of a different breed.

"The current virus," Osterholm said, "is completely different from any strain we've seen."

And it's spreading at an accelerated rate. Every three to six weeks, the panel told us, the number of infected cases will double.

And it we don't do anything, we're going to have a massive global crisis on our hands.

Until tomorrow,

Chris Campbell
for The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: The Laissez Faire research team is currently pulling together to create one comprehensive Ebola disaster plan. Soon, they'll disseminate this information to all of their readers. If you want to be first in line to receive it, become a member today, before it's too late. Signing up is FREE and easy. Click here to get started.

Secret Scheme To Manipulate Silver Price - Lawsuits Against Banks Proceed

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 09:57 AM PDT

The lawsuits against banks that alleges they engaged in a secret scheme to manipulate the price of silver bullion is proceeding. Gold fixing in London at NM Rothschild and Sons began in September 1919 Litigation alleging that Deutsche Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC Plc illegally fixed the price of silver were centralised in a Manhattan federal court yesterday. The banks have been accused of rigging the price of billions of dollars in silver to the detriment of investors globally.

Miner Fresnillo looks to hedge some gold output

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 05:44 AM PDT

From Reuters
Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Mexican miner Fresnillo Plc reported a small drop in quarterly silver production and said it could hedge a part of its gold output to protect its recent investment in the Herradura corridor in northern Mexico.

Shares in the miner fell as much as 3.4 percent on Wednesday morning, making the stock one of the top percentage losers on the FTSE 100 index.

An increasing numbers of precious metals miners, battered by last year's steep drop in prices, are selling planned output forward to better control their cash flow. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/15/fresnillo-output-idUKL3N0SA2UV2...



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Gold imports by India seen rising more than fourfold last month

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 05:40 AM PDT

By Pratik Parija
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, October 15, 2014

NEW DELHI, India -- Gold imports by India, the largest user after China, probably surged more than fourfold last month on expectations declining prices would boost festival demand.

Purchases are estimated at about 95 metric tons compared with 15 tons to 20 tons in September last year, said Bachhraj Bamalwa, a director at the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. The government raised import taxes for a third time in August last year after a month earlier obliging importers to set aside 20 percent of purchases for re-export as jewelry.

India represented 25 percent of global demand in 2013. Imports of gold were valued at $3.75 billion in September, 450 percent more than a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry estimates. Buying and gifting of gold is considered auspicious and the most favorable time is the festival of Dhanteras, two days before Diwali which occurs on Oct. 23. Festivals run through November and the wedding season follows to early May. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-15/gold-imports-by-india-seen-risi...



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Monday-Friday, December 1-5, 2014

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H.C. Wainwright Analyst Jeff Wright Names Three Companies that Could Turn the Gold Trend Upside Down

Posted: 15 Oct 2014 01:00 AM PDT

Fans of gold have been following Federal Reserve Board announcements for any sign of relief, but H.C. Wainwright & Co. Analyst Jeff Wright says change may be a long time coming. That is why in this interview with The Gold Report, Wright is focusing on three companies that can be successful even in a low gold price environment. He also offers three questions every investor should ask before buying a junior mining stock.

Gold and the Upcoming Deflation Cycle

Posted: 14 Oct 2014 11:26 PM PDT

Dear Reader,

With the investment markets looking shakier than they have in years, I asked economist and cycle expert David Hunter to weigh in on what renewed volatility means for gold.

As you can tell from the title, David sees deflation coming. He expects it to be swift, lasting just a few months, after which the Fed will respond with the largest monetary injection we’ve ever seen. Then deflation will morph into inflation very quickly.

I agree with David that the markets are on the precipice of something big. In fact, several Casey Researchers and I are working on a special report that will detail specific actions you can take to protect your wealth from what’s likely to be a very difficult next few months.

I’ll let you know when the report is ready. In the meantime, read on for David’s forecast on gold, oil, the stock market, and more.

Dan Steinhart
Managing Editor of The Casey Report


Gold and the Upcoming Deflation Cycle

By David Hunter

Gold has been in a secular bull market since 2001, when it began rising from a low of $250. It had been in a bear market for the prior two decades after peaking out at $880 in 1980. Disinflation and the end of the Cold War dampened gold’s appeal through the 1980s and 1990s, as did the strong returns generated by bonds and stocks.

Then 9/11 happened, followed by the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Once again investors began looking at gold as a potential beneficiary of increasing world strife. We started to see both money and credit expand, and investors began considering the implications this could have for future inflation. Gold soared to $1,900 in 2011, and one analyst after another predicted ever-higher prices for gold—$2,500, $3,000, $5,000, and higher.

That marked the high-water mark for gold. It has been down ever since. In the past three years, gold has fallen 37% from 1,900 to its current price near $1,200. The selloff has certainly frustrated the gold bulls, who thought the Fed’s $3 trillion of QE would have propelled inflation and gold prices much higher by now.

Gold had a great 10-year run and was overdue for a correction. Many investors bought into the inflation scenario, and when it didn’t materialize, began to liquidate their gold holdings. Once the uptrend broke and momentum clearly shifted to the downside, more and more gold investors bailed. I think the dominant factor driving gold lower these past two years has been the unwinding of the inflation trade.

Gold is still in a secular bull market and much higher highs lie ahead. It could reach $5,000 or even $10,000 by the end of the decade. However, right now it’s in a cyclical bear market—one with significant further downside risk just ahead.

Deflation

Throughout this recovery cycle, the consensus on Wall Street has been that it’s only a matter of time until inflation rears its ugly head. Most assumed that after three decades of disinflation—when inflation fell from near 20% down to 1%—the odds favored a reversal of the trend. The prevailing view was that the Fed would do everything it could to ensure that the economy didn’t slip into deflation. The expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet by over $3 trillion led analysts to assume that a new inflation cycle was inevitable, and likely coming sooner rather than later.

The problem for gold is that not only has inflation failed to surge during this cycle, it has actually declined over the past five years. Globally, we are now closer to a deflationary cycle than at any time in the past 80 years. And the dollar’s recent sharp rise is putting more downward pressure on prices here in the US.

There are still plenty of inflationists hanging on to their gold positions. They believe inflation will heat up soon and that the dollar will lose its reserve currency status in the near future. My guess is that even these “strong hands” holders of gold will have their convictions tested in the next few months as the dollar soars and gold trades well south of $1,000. I suspect many will finally throw in the towel when they see deflation. Capitulation by this most resolute group of gold investors should set the bottom and usher in the next big bull cycle.

So here we sit, with gold around $1,200, well off its high of $1,900, but also still well above the 2001 low of $250. In some respects, I’m surprised that gold has remained this high, given how wrong the inflation thesis has been. If someone told me in 2001 that in 13 years, inflation would be 1-2% and heading lower and that the price of gold would be up almost fivefold, I would have characterized that scenario as highly unlikely.

Amazingly, gold ran up from $250 to $1,900 primarily based on an inflation premise that has yet to pan out. The dollar did experience a big decline over that time, which certainly played a significant role. But in hindsight, the gold rally was overdone. Ever since I turned bearish on gold in 2012 at $1,800, I have been targeting $800-$1,000 as a potential bottom. Given my expectations of a deflationary bust and a dollar rally that takes the index to 100, gold could even fall below $800 for a short period.

Gold’s final leg down will be all about deflation, and most investors are not prepared for it. Most gold investors remain focused on inflation. Those who do mention deflation seem to think it’s rather benign, just a step removed from disinflation. Their understanding is based on what has occurred in Japan and more recently, Europe. The deflation in both cases has been mild and gradual, and to date has not had a game-changing impact. Some have even suggested that deflation could be positive because consumers would be able to buy things cheaper.

It has been 80 years since this country experienced widespread deflation, so it’s understandable that most investors have little comprehension of the implications. Wall Street doesn’t even get it. Deflation is more than just a little price weakness—especially when it comes in the form of a bust, as I expect to be the case. Not only will consumer prices drop sharply, incomes, revenues, and asset prices will plummet too.

I expect the global deflationary bust to be short and sharp. I think it will cause significant involuntary liquidation and some major bank failures. Equity markets around the world will decline by more than 50%, and commodity prices will fall sharply. Bond spreads will widen dramatically, and the junk bond market will implode.

I don’t foresee a depression, although it will certainly feel like one while we’re in it. The best comparison is 2008-‘09, except the coming downturn will likely be worse. It will be what 2008-‘09 would have been if not for TARP.

Still, I expect the bust to be contained within 2015, because we know exactly how central bankers will respond.

The Inevitable Response

Policymakers have but one tool that they can deploy quickly enough to counteract a free-falling global financial system: massive Quantitative Easing.

The coming global financial crisis will be unlike any in history. The credit crisis in 2008 was a precursor; this one will be worse, and the global financial system will be at risk of spinning out of control. Janet Yellen and her fellow central bankers will respond with panic, shoveling money into the system at a magnitude far beyond what we have seen in this cycle to date. I expect $10-$15 trillion in additional QE from the Fed, and for the other central banks of the world to do the same proportionally. They will do whatever it takes to stem the free-fall. Fiscal policy will play a role, but that response will be slower and come later.

Simply put, policymakers have spent the last five years attempting to manage the deleveraging of the massively overleveraged global economy. They’re reaching the limits of what they can do. It was unrealistic to think they could successfully deleverage the system without creating serious dislocations. They had no choice but to try.

The recent volatility in the currency and commodity markets suggests that policymakers have run out of room. They’ve reached the point where a policy fix in one place exacerbates problems elsewhere. In spite of their best efforts, the global financial system is more leveraged than ever, and the global economy is losing steam. Officials have made some major policy errors, and the world is edging ever closer to a deflationary bust.

I am quite certain the stock market has seen its highs, and I expect the unwind to be swift and steep. Commodities will also fall sharply in the weeks and months ahead. Oil prices will likely fall below $50 and natural gas could drop to $2. Copper prices could decline by half.

Gold is further along in its cyclical decline and thus nearer its bottom. It has begun the final leg of its decline and could find a bottom by late this year or early next. A great buying opportunity lies ahead for the precious metals, as they will be the leaders of the next market cycle.

However, for now, investors should focus on the risks. A short, sharp deflation cycle is coming, and it will be a game-changer.


Gold Prices Spike 2% to 1-Month High as U.S. Stocks Dump With Bond Yields on Poor Retail Sales Data

Posted: 14 Oct 2014 05:00 PM PDT

Gold prices spiked at the start of U.S. trading on Wednesday, leaping to 1-month highs as Wall Street's stock market dumped 1.7% at the opening after much weaker than expected U.S. retail sales and factory-gate price data.

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