saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Mental Training, Part 3: What Not to do About Black Swans
- Harvey Organ: Shanghai Drained of Silver, Bullion Banks Are About to Attack the COMEX!
- Gold Investors Weekly Review – September 26th
- Truthseeking: How The Elites Are Running The World, The Dollar And Metals
- Mark O’Byrne: Death of ‘Safe Haven’ Gold Greatly Exaggerated
- Whoodathunkit: Secret tapes show New York Fed is the tool of the big banks
- Three King World News Blogs
- Cheapest way to buy Royal Mint gold? Not from the Royal Mint
- German Bullion Dealers Report Major Increase in Sales
- Mark O'Byrne: Death Of 'Safe Haven' Gold Greatly Exaggerated
- Alasdair Macleod: Valuing gold and turkey farming
- Koos Jansen: New Shanghai exchange discourages exporting gold from China
- Lawrence Williams: Hong Kong-China gold exports weak again, but does it matter?
- Peak Gold, easier to model than Peak Oil ? Part II
- Peak Gold, easier to model than Peak Oil ? Part II
- Education After the Collapse – School When There Is No Classroom
- Harvey Organ: Shanghai Drained of Silver, Bullion Banks Are About to Attack the COMEX!
- Speculators Endorsing Lower Copper Prices
- sept 26/no change in GLD inventory/no change in silver inventory/gold falls but silver rises/huge 96,450.000 oz leaves gold comex/.
- Dollar Gold And How It Affected Gold Since The Financial Crisis
- COPPER vs SILVER MANIPULATION: The Tale Of Two Metals
- Marshall Swing: Specs Should Sell Now- Epic Short Squeeze Brewing?
| Mental Training, Part 3: What Not to do About Black Swans Posted: 27 Sep 2014 09:00 AM PDT Precious metal investors have long been second-guessing themselves, due to false alarms. Many, many false alarms. They are, quite honestly, shell-shocked. Even the mention of the next "event", now simply makes them angry, both at those telling them about the importance of the events, and at themselves for "believing this stuff in the first place". […] The post Mental Training, Part 3: What Not to do About Black Swans appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Harvey Organ: Shanghai Drained of Silver, Bullion Banks Are About to Attack the COMEX! Posted: 27 Sep 2014 07:31 AM PDT Podcast: Play in new window | Download
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| Gold Investors Weekly Review – September 26th Posted: 27 Sep 2014 04:18 AM PDT In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the USFunds.com nicely summarizes for gold investors this week's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the gold market. Gold closed the week at $1,218.07 up $2.37 per ounce (0.19%). Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, fell 2.74%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index rose 1.04% for the week. Gold Market StrengthsCentral banks remain attracted to gold. Russia announced that its central bank has added another 9.3 tonnes of gold to its reserves. Russia has almost doubled its gold reserves since the financial crisis, being a net buyer every month since. Furthermore, European central banks have retained much more gold than they expected, unloading just 1.7 percent of the gold allowed in their agreement to limit sales.
Gold mint sales are on the rise. This week, the United Kingdom’s Royal Mint launched an online bullion trading website for the first time. The move is aimed at accessing unsatisfied gold demand in the UK. The Mint’s gold coin sales have increased after being granted value-added-tax-free status in the UK. In the United States, gold coin sales are on the rise as well. Thus far in September, sales of American Eagle bullion gold coins have increased 84 percent from August. Roughly 50 tonnes of gold have been smuggled into India over the past ten days according to the Hindustan Times. The substantial inflows into the country stem from the seasonal demand for gold and highlight the resilient demand for the precious metal in India. Premiums for gold in India are anticipated to double to $20 per ounce over the London cash price going into October. Gold Market WeaknessesThe ETF that tracks the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index, the GDXJ, is reportedly too large to match the benchmark. Most of the fund’s holdings have exceeded 10 percent of the outstanding shares, causing the need for the ETF to rebalance to an asset mix that departs from its benchmark. Down 12% this quarter, commodities are poised for the biggest decline since the financial crisis. Weak global growth data from Europe and China as well as a strong dollar have created severe headwinds for the asset class.
Gold Market OpportunitiesThe World Gold Council says that gold will rebound by the end of 2014. The confidence in gold expressed by the council is due to the strong demand from India during the current wedding season. The council is forecasting demand figures in the range of 850 to 950 tonnes. A recent report issued by McKinsey and Company argued that the diamond industry will likely continue to be a strong and profitable one. In the near future, demand growth will outstrip supply.
Gold Market ThreatsAccording to Goldman Sachs Group’s Jeffrey Currie, gold is set to continue its decline. He argues that gold has been supported recently by geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, which are now fading. Investors are also shying away from gold as the dollar continues to appreciate and commodities as a whole suffer. Despite gold being unable to find many buyers during its recent slump, Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, noted today in an editorial that “only brave investors would omit it from their investment portfolio given the fluid world we live in.” The Central Bank of Japan (BOJ) has reportedly purchased a record amount of Japanese equities. Holding 1.5 percent of the entire Japanese equity market, the BOJ’s aggressive purchasing leads one to speculate as to whether or not the U.S. Federal Reserve is doing the same. Since higher equity prices would directly enhance the wealth effect, thus raising consumer confidence, it is not beyond reason to consider. Norilsk Nickel is looking at buying palladium from the Russian Central Bank. Uncertainty surrounding the deal, which is expected to amount to 2.4 million oz., may push palladium prices lower. Furthermore, whereas it was uncertain to what degree the Russian Central bank was holding palladium, this deal now reveals that the bank holds a substantial position in the metal.
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| Truthseeking: How The Elites Are Running The World, The Dollar And Metals Posted: 27 Sep 2014 03:45 AM PDT As we near the end of the 3rd Q for 2014, time is running out for all the 2014 enthusiasts that are calling for higher prices by year-end. The lessons learned from 2013 have been forgotten as not only are not prices beginning to move higher, they are making new recent lows. Incredibly enough, many of these prognosticators are paid pretty well by their subscribers. Lesson to be learned? Absolutely no one can divine the future. Here we are, in the cheap seats, showing our unadorned, simple charts each week, repeating the most basic advice possible: The single most piece of information one can have is knowledge of the trend. If the trend is down, do not be long, [at least not in the paper futures market]. Buying and holding physical gold and silver is a totally different issue. It may be evident, at times, that we have no pre-determined agenda for each week's article. Already, we are far away from what we thought we would write just as of last night. A function of this more stream of consciousness weekly endeavor is that we are no locked into maintaining a false hope, pitching something that is contrary to what the market is advertising. Last year, there was "hope" when news would come out about record coins sales, huge Chinese lines queued to buy gold, record tonnage purchases by China, Russia, sometimes India. We are amused to see similar articles appearing again, recently. Does that information really matter? Is it impacting the market? Not in the least. We could be wrong, at least about our "story" that attends the charts, but we are not wrong about reading the chart direction. There is a reason why we keep saying to stop listening to what others are saying, and pay attention to what the charts are saying about those others who actually participate in the markets. Once more, there is no better source for what is happening in the markets than the market itself. Our story is that the precious metals[PMs] markets will not turn until the US and the UK lose their control over the money markets. It could not be any simpler. When will that control be lost? Not any time soon, and 2014 could very well bleed into 2015 and 2016 just as 2013 did in 2014. It could all change next month or sometime thereafter, but until it does, no change is happening, yet. The UK is less problematic because it does not have the military might that the US has, the Empire of Chaos, led by the Nobel Peace Prize winner cum War Lord of the Flies, Barack Husain "Obomba" "If we do not have a coalition, we will not bomb Syria." He had no coalition because his "closest allies" bailed on him. True to form, he bombed anyway, and he was joined in a last-minute "coalition" of other Arab nations that want to get rid of Bashar al-Assad, president of Syria, at all costs. No one can stop the United States from inflicting its debt pain and military might against those who do not go along with the NWO [a wolf in US clothing], or "you will pay the price by having your country wrecked." In the world of international laws, none apply to the US when they get in the way, and there are no consequences. Did international law stop the Obomba administration from backing a coup against a sovereign Ukrainian president, kicked out and replaced with a puppet loyal [at the end of a gun barrel] to Washington? It used to be only Mao Tse Tung who ruled with power from the end of a gun barrel. Why Ukraine? An effort by the NWO to keep Russia from supplying gas to Europe. [Always follow the money]. Ukraine is a way to disrupt the flow of liquid gas, but Russia made a huge deal with China, last May, and has its biggest partner and recipient of Russian gas ready and willing to deal with each other, and without using the petrodollar! The pillars are crumbling for the debt-laden, gasping for life petrodollar [the US "dollar" used for all international trade contracts, at least until recently]. Why Syria? Certainly not ISIS. ISIS is a product of the CIA, just as al-Qaeda was. These were anti-Bashar fighters trained and armed, even financed by the CIA. Because the CIA does not understand Islam and the too-many different factions, most of whom do not get along with each other, these newly armed and trained fighters decided to go their own way according to their own version of Islam. Kind of like Obama: If you do not agree with us, then like Alice in Wonderland's Queen of Hearts, "Off with their heads!" Syria is an important end route for planned gas pipelines from Russia en route to Europe. The West will not tolerate competition from Russia, a country unwilling to relent its national sovereignty and cater to the NWO and their bearing-gifts-of-debt to overtake any country willing to accept such "gifts," not with any strings attached, but chains and no hope of escape. It is just like the Eagles song, Hotel California, "You can check out any time, but you can never leave." For a point of clarity, to not be misunderstood, when we talk about the US, Obama, UK, or any other country, we talk about the government in charge and not about the people being governed. Americans, as individuals, are a fun-loving people, so are Brits, Russians, Palestinians, Chinese, almost every culture. People just want to get along and be content living their lives. The problem is the governments that control the people. The federal government is in charge of the US, but only as a corporation, doing everything possible to enrich those who control and are a part of it. The US, all Western countries, are under total control of the moneychangers, the elites, a handful of people who control the entire central banking system, which in turn, controls the governments. None of these governments, none, care about the people being governed, except for lip service. BFD. The Empire of Chaos war machine is in full gear, and it will go after any country, any people who get in their way, and that includes going after Americans in their own country. The NSA, FEMA, TSA, Homeland Security. All of these organization have one purpose and one purpose only: Protect the interests of the banking system that controls the nation. If you think hell hath no fury like a woman scorned is something to be avoided, try getting in the way of the elites. Lincoln and Kennedy did. Bang Bang, [My Baby Shot Me Down - Cher] That is the war side, and we are just scratching the surface. Always remember, gold and silver are the antithesis to the elites fiat paper, now computer blips. Central bankers are suppressing the PMs to eliminate any competition to their paper debt Ponzi scheme that is beginning to unravel, thanks to China and Russia, now BRICS and a larger number of countries willing to tie their future to the growing prosperity plans of China and Russia. Both countries are always engaged in deals to foster growth, constructively utilizing their energy or making deals with, and not bombing, other countries with their own energy sources willing to cooperate without having to give up their sovereignty or become debt slaves. Germany flinched after asking New York to return its gold. [Gone, Germany, long gone by the same powers with whom you continue to deal.] Bush, Clinton, Bush II, now Obama have done the bidding of the elites and traded away or sold all the gold for money and power. Germany stopped asking for the return of its gold, most likely under the threat from the elites to back off, or else. She backed off. There is no gold. If Germany, considered the sole powerhouse of the EU, will not stand up, what country will? Maybe the AfD party, Alternative fur Deutschland, will embarrass Merkel into doing the right thing for Germany and her people. The AfD is a new party that wants to leave the EU and stop funding the other parasitic EU countries. As long as countries are willing to sacrifice their economies, crippling companies, hurting the economy, and harming the economic viability of their people, gold and silver are not going anywhere. What about Switzerland? There is a gold referendum on 30 November that would require the Swiss central bank to keep at least 20% of assets in gold. The Swiss people want this, but the Parliament [government] opposes it. Why? It would "impinge on the Swiss National Bank's ability to conduct monetary policy." In other words, it would stop the Swiss economy from being more "fiatized" [our word], to being less "fiatized," or less burdened by debt. The Swiss Bank would not be able to "print" [digitize] more fiat. The gold-asset holding right now is at 8%. It used to be higher, but the Swiss caved-in to the elites and joined the fiat crowd, as demanded. What people want does not matter. What the elite-controlled Western government sycophants want is what the people will get. None of these stories are news-headline-grabbing, but they are pieces of the puzzle that, when put together, a picture of how the elites run the world suddenly appears. They are in control. No one can oppose their power. China and Russia are opposing them, right now, and their strength, backed by huge natural resources, [Russia], and massive amounts of gold, [China and Russia], engaging and encouraging other countries to build and grow from within, may very well win the day and be the catalyst to bring down the Empire of Chaos, led by the evil cabal of debt serpents, the elites. Neither China nor Russia are in any hurry to see gold and silver rise, as long as they can continue to buy both at absurdly low, artificial prices. In fact, low PM prices are a huge leveraging source for China to continue to buy up the United States assets as this country self-destructs into Third World oblivion. The elites are encouraging this process for they have bled this country dry of all its wealth. Now they just want control of the carcass and its military capabilities. The charts: The strong rally on the monthly chart says to pay attention and do not ignore this higher time frame. Volume was the highest up volume, and it erased the higher volume when price sold off in 2013, first arrow. The ease of upward movement shows no sign of any stopping activity, so all one can do is watch and let it play out. Despite detractors on the future viability of the "dollar," and we are one, the elites are not about to let it roll over and die without a strong fight. PMs are likely to remain weak with a strong dollar. |
| Mark O’Byrne: Death of ‘Safe Haven’ Gold Greatly Exaggerated Posted: 27 Sep 2014 02:27 AM PDT "During the biggest bull market in gold in history, London was down every year" ¤ Yesterday In Gold & SilverGold rallied unsteadily in Far East trading on their Friday---and the high of the day came with a capped price spike just a few minutes before the London open. From there, every rally attempt got sold down---and the low of the day came at 10:15 a.m. EDT, which was either at, or just after, the London p.m. gold fix. From there, the gold price rallied a bit into the close. The high and low ticks for the day were reported by the CME Group as $1,232.70 and $1,212.80 in the December contract. Gold finished the Friday session at $1,219.40 spot, down $2.50 from Thursday's close. Net volume was not overly heavy at 123,000 contracts. The silver price pattern was similar to gold's, except much more subdued---and the low tick came at 1 p.m. BST in London, which was twenty minutes before the Comex open. Silver chopped higher for the remainder of the Friday session in New York---and closed on its absolute high tick. The low and high were reported as $17.725 and $17.44 in the December contract. Silver finished the trading day yesterday at $17.66 spot, up 16 cents on the day. Net volume was 35,500 contracts. Platinum rallied a bit in early Far East trading, but then got sold back down to unchanged and remained that way until shortly after Zurich opened. Then down it went for the rest of the day, hitting its low tick---and a new low for this move down---about 2:30 p.m. in New York. After that, the price didn't do much. JPMorgan et al finally close platinum below the $1,300 mark at $1,297 spot, down another 12 bucks. Palladium got it in the neck for the second day in a row---and I thought the smack-down just after the Zurich open on Thursday morning was egregious! But Friday's price action was even more grotesque. After hanging around the $800 mark for most of the trading session, the HFT boyz and their algorithms showed up---and the palladium price was down over $20 by 2 p.m. EDT. Then just minutes before the 5:15 p.m. EDT close, they showed up once again and carved another seven or eight bucks off the price. These guys have no shame, but they obviously have an agenda---and are just as obviously pressed for time as well. Palladium was closed at $772 spot, virtually on its low tick of the day---and down a whopping $25 on the day---3.14%. It almost goes without saying that this was another new low for this move down. The dollar index closed at 85.18 late on Thursday afternoon in New York---and then didn't do a lot until around 11:30 a.m. BST in London on their Friday morning. Then away it went to the upside, with the 85.67 high coming minutes before 2:30 p.m. EDT. From there it slid a few basis points into the close, finishing the week at 85.64---up 46 basis points on the day. The gold stocks gapped down a bit at the open---and continued to slide from there, with the low tick coming at 3 p.m. EDT---and the shares managed to cut their loses a bit, but the HUI still closed down another 1.46%. It was more or less the same pattern in the silver stocks---and despite the fact that the silver price finished well into positive territory, the silver equities closed down another 1.35%. The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 1 gold and 17 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depository on Tuesday. The First Day Notice numbers for the October delivery month weren't forthcoming, so they'll be posted on Monday evening on the CME's website---and I'll have it for you on Tuesday. The CME Preliminary Report for the Friday trading session showed that 1 gold and 17 silver contracts were still open in the September contract---and you will carefully note that they match the numbers in the previous paragraph precisely. The September delivery month is now done. There was another withdrawal from GLD yesterday, this time an authorized participant took out 38,463 troy ounces. And in keeping with tradition, there was another deposit in SLV yesterday as 767,147 troy ounces were added. The SLV mystery continues---and deepens. There was a sales report from the U.S. Mint yesterday. They sold 3,000 troy ounces of gold eagles---1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes---and 250,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the U.S. Mint has churned out 51,500 troy ounces of gold eagles---13,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes---and 3,050,000 silver eagles---and 600 platinum eagles. Mint sales for September so far are light years ahead of August---up over 100 percent in gold eagles, 50 percent in buffaloes---and 50 percent in silver eagles---and I can tell you that sales this week at the bullion store where I work, have been very robust. Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday, there was another very decent withdrawal in gold, as 96,450.000 troy ounces were shipped out and, to the ounce, that number works out to exactly 3,000 kilobars. The link to that activity is here. It was another very busy day in silver as well, as 744,036 troy ounces were reported received---and 629,362 troy ounces were shipped out. The link to that action is here. The Commitment of Traders Report for positions held at the close of Comex trading on Tuesday were about what I was expecting in silver, but rather disappointing in gold. In silver, the Commercial net short position declined by a hefty 6,792 contracts, or 34.0 million troy ounces. The Commercial net short position is now down to 16,767 contracts, or 83.8 million troy ounces---and within spitting distance of its late May/early June record low. For a change, it wasn't the Managed Money traders in the technical fund category going short that caused the decline, as they actually covered 1,638 of their short contracts during the reporting week. It was the small traders [the Nonreportable category] that were involved, as their net long position declined by 4,702 contracts. Ted says that it appears that the Managed Money is all full up on the short side---and all of this week's improvements came from these Nonreportable futures contract holders, plus Non-Commercial traders other than the technical funds. Ted also mentioned that JPMorgan's short position in silver is now down to about 11,500 contracts, their lowest short-side corner in the Comex futures market since taking over the silver short position of Bear Stearns in 2008. And not to be forgotten in all of this, is the equally extreme short-side corner in the Comex silver market held by Canada's Scotiabank. In gold, the Commercial net short position only declined by 11,924 contracts, or 1.19 million troy ounces. I was expecting around double that amount. The Commercial net short position in that precious metal now stands at 6.43 million troy ounces. The big changes were in the Manged Money category, as they sold an additional 3,232 long contracts---and bought 6,933 short contracts. The small traders in the Nonreportable category also pitched 4,278 longs in addition to that. Of course, standing there buying all the long positions offered in both metals, was JPMorgan et al. Ted was rather surprised to see that there was no change in JPMorgan's long-side corner in the Comex gold market, as it remained around the 25,000 contract/2.5 million troy ounce mark. Ted also remarked that the Comex futures market showed major improvements in platinum, palladium, copper and crude oil, as 'da boyz' continue to game the technical funds into extreme positions on the short side. The only big exception is the dollar index, where the technical funds are holding monster long positions---and JPMorgan et al are mega short. And, without doubt, we've seen more improvements in the internal structure of the precious metals since the Tuesday cut-off---and also without doubt, we're back at, or below, the record lows set back in late May/early June. And we've exceeded those lows in both platinum and palladium, as those two metals have been savaged during the latest engineered price decline. Once again we have to contemplate the subsequent actions of JPMorgan et al, as all these shorts look to cover during the next rally---and in the dollar index, it's the opposite. Will they let the technical funds off easy once again, or will 'da boyz' just put their hands in their pockets? And as Ted Butler and I have said countless times that, and only that, will determine not only how high price rise from here, but how fast they get they get there as well. Nothing else matters. I have the usual number of stories for a weekend---and the final edit is up to you. ¤ Critical Reads Macy's CEO Offers an Ominous Insight About American ConsumersMacy's CEO Terry Lundgren said he was expecting a rebound this year. It didn't happen. "The consumer has not bounced back with the confidence that we were all looking for," Lundgren said at the Goldman Sachs Annual Retail Conference earlier this month, weeks after the company reported sluggish second-quarter sales. Lundgren also said he doesn't expect things to get better in time for the holiday season. Why would anyone be surprised by this news, I wonder? It was posted on the businessinsider.com Internet site at 1:25 p.m. EDT on Friday---and I thank Harry Grant for today's first story.  'Bond King' Bill Gross quits Pimco for JanusBill Gross, the bond market's most renowned investor, quit Pimco for distant rival Janus Capital Group Inc on Friday, the day before he was expected to be fired from the huge investment firm he co-founded more than 40 years ago. Gross, 70, had been clashing with the firm's executive committee and had threatened to resign multiple times, a source familiar with the situation said. The committee had planned to accept his latest resignation from the post of chief investment officer on Saturday. The surprise development, which rattled the U.S. bond market, came the day before Pimco and its parent, German insurer Allianz SE, planned to dismiss Gross, the source said. Gross will manage the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund beginning on Monday, Janus said in a statement. The fund, started in May, has just $13 million in assets. This Reuters article appeared on the ca.finance.yahoo.com Internet site yesterday sometime---and I thank Dr. Dave Janda for bringing it to my attention.  David Stockman: Peak Debt—-Why the Keynesian Money Printers are DoneBloomberg has a story today on the faltering of Draghi’s latest scheme to levitate Europe’s somnolent socialist economies by means of a new round of monetary juice called TLTRO—–$1.3 trillion in essentially zero cost four-year funding to European banks on the condition that they expand their business loan books. Using anecdotes from Spain, the piece perhaps inadvertently highlights all that is wrong with the entire central bank money printing regime that is now extirpating honest finance nearly everywhere in the world. On the one hand, the initial round of TLTRO takedowns came in at only $100 billion compared to the $200 billion widely expected. It seems that Spanish banks, like their counterparts elsewhere in Europe, are finding virtually no demand among small and medium businesses for new loans. Many small and medium-sized businesses are wary of the offers from banks as European Central Bank President Draghi prepares to pump more cash into the financial system to boost prices and spur growth. The reticence in Spain suggests demand for credit may be as much of a problem as the supply. The monthly flow of new loans of as much as 1 million euros for as much as a year — a type of credit typically used by small and medium-sized companies — is still down by two-thirds in Spain from a 2007 peak, according to Bank of Spain data. On the other hand, Spain’s sovereign debt has rallied to what are truly stupid heights—with the 10-year bond hitting a 2.11% yield yesterday (compared to 7% + just 24 months ago). The explanation for these parallel developments is that the hedge fund speculators in peripheral sovereign debt do not care about actual expansion of the Spanish or euro area economies that is implicit in Draghi’s targeted promotion of business lending (whether healthy and sustainable, or not). They are simply braying that “T” for targeted LTRO is not enough; they demand outright sovereign debt purchases by the ECB—-that is, Bernanke style QE and are quite sure they will get it. That’s why they are front-running the ECB and buying the Spanish bond. It is a patented formula and hedge fund speculators have been riding it to fabulous riches for many years now. This commentary, with some excellent charts, showed up on David's website on Friday someday---and it's the first offering of the day from Roy Stephens.  Doug Noland: What We KnowHeightened global market instability has began to be transmitted to U.S. securities markets. There’s much that we simply don’t know. There is as well a lot we know with an important degree of confidence. Some months back I highlighted an exceptional Bank of America Merrill Lynch research report, “Pig in the Python – the EM Carry Trade Unwind” (Ajay Singh Kapur, Ritesh Samadhiya and Umesha de Silva). Especially in light of recent market developments, it’s a good time to revisit this thesis and highlight some of their data. From “Pig in the Python,” February 2014: “Since 3Q2008, the US Federal Reserve QE has unleashed a massive $2 TN debt-driven carry trade into emerging markets, disproportionately increasing their forex reserves (by $2.7 TN from end-3Q 2008), their monetary bases (by $3.2 TN), their credit and monetary aggregates (M2 up by $14.9 TN), consequently boosting economic growth and asset prices (mainly property and bonds). As the Fed continues to taper its heterodox policy, we believe these large carry trades are likely to diminish, or be unwound.” Doug's must read commentary showed up on the prudentbear.com Internet site on Friday evening---and it's courtesy of reader U.D.  Whoodathunkit: Secret tapes show New York Fed is the tool of the big banksBarely a year removed from the devastation of the 2008 financial crisis, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York faced a crossroads. Congress had set its sights on reform. The biggest banks in the nation had shown that their failure could threaten the entire financial system. Lawmakers wanted new safeguards. The Federal Reserve, and, by dint of its location off Wall Street, the New York Fed, was the logical choice to head the effort. Except it had failed miserably in catching the meltdown. New York Fed President William Dudley had to answer two questions quickly: Why had his institution blown it, and how could it do better? So he called in an outsider, a Columbia University finance professor named David Beim, and granted him unlimited access to investigate. In exchange, the results would remain secret. After interviews with dozens of New York Fed employees, Beim learned something that surprised even him. The most daunting obstacle the New York Fed faced in overseeing the nation's biggest financial institutions was its own culture. The New York Fed had become too risk-averse and deferential to the banks it supervised. Its examiners feared contradicting bosses, who too often forced their findings into an institutional consensus that watered down much of what they did. This story went viral the moment it got posted on the Internet yesterday. This version, which is a must read, appeared on the propublica.org Internet site at 5 a.m. EDT on Friday morning---and I found it in a GATA release. There are three other versions that were sent to me. The original Bloomberg story headlined "The Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes" was written by Michael Lewis of "Flash Boys" fame---and it's a must read as well. I thank Roy Stephens for sending that version. Zero Hedge couldn't help themselves---and their take on it is headlined "How Goldman Controls the New York Fed: 47.5 Hours of "The Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes" Explain"---and this commentary is courtesy of reader 'David in California'. The New York Post also jumped into the fray with an article entitled "Tapes showing meek oversight of Goldman are about to rock Wall Street"---and this one is courtesy of reader Brad Robertson.  Alex Jones Interviews Doug CaseyAlex was the dinner speaker last Saturday night at the Casey Summit in San Antonio---and his speech, along with the zeal with which it was delivered, received decidedly mixed reviews. But here he is in an interview with Doug Casey. It was posted on the youtube.com Internet site yesterday sometime. It's a 2-part interview---and the first installment starts at the 2:35 minute mark and runs until the 17:30 minute mark. Then, after a five minute break/commercial, the interview starts again at th |
| Whoodathunkit: Secret tapes show New York Fed is the tool of the big banks Posted: 27 Sep 2014 02:27 AM PDT Whoodathunkit: Secret tapes show New York Fed is the tool of the big banks Barely a year removed from the devastation of the 2008 financial crisis, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York faced a crossroads. Congress had set its sights on reform. The biggest banks in the nation had shown that their failure could threaten the entire financial system. Lawmakers wanted new safeguards. The Federal Reserve, and, by dint of its location off Wall Street, the New York Fed, was the logical choice to head the effort. Except it had failed miserably in catching the meltdown. New York Fed President William Dudley had to answer two questions quickly: Why had his institution blown it, and how could it do better? So he called in an outsider, a Columbia University finance professor named David Beim, and granted him unlimited access to investigate. In exchange, the results would remain secret. After interviews with dozens of New York Fed employees, Beim learned something that surprised even him. The most daunting obstacle the New York Fed faced in overseeing the nation's biggest financial institutions was its own culture. The New York Fed had become too risk-averse and deferential to the banks it supervised. Its examiners feared contradicting bosses, who too often forced their findings into an institutional consensus that watered down much of what they did. This story went viral the moment it got posted on the Internet yesterday. This version, which is a must read, appeared on the propublica.org Internet site at 5 a.m. EDT on Friday morning---and I found it in a GATA release. There are three other versions that were sent to me. The original Bloomberg story headlined "The Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes" was written by Michael Lewis of "Flash Boys" fame---and it's a must read as well. I thank Roy Stephens for sending that version. Zero Hedge couldn't help themselves---and their take on it is headlined "How Goldman Controls the New York Fed: 47.5 Hours of "The Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes" Explain"---and this commentary is courtesy of reader 'David in California'. The New York Post also jumped into the fray with an article entitled "Tapes showing meek oversight of Goldman are about to rock Wall Street"---and this one is courtesy of reader Brad Robertson. |
| Posted: 27 Sep 2014 02:27 AM PDT  Three King World News Blogs 1. Andrew Maguire [#1]: "Stunning 650 Tonnes of Gold Bought in Takedown" 2. Ronald-Peter Stoferle: "Concerned About the Gold and Silver Smash - Just Read This" 3. Andrew Maguire [#2]: "Final Stages of Historic Capitulation in Gold and Silver" [Note: Besides my usual disclaimer on our daily dose of hyperbole out of King World News that's posted below---I, and others, have some real issues with this 650 tonne figure---and here are just two of them. This amount of gold represents almost 80 percent of the current contents of the GLD ETF---and 25 percent of yearly gold production. Considering the fact that the goings-on inside the LBMA are totally opaque, I'd like to see some proof for what appears to be an outlandish claim. - Ed] [Please direct any questions or comments about what is said in these interviews by either Eric King or his guests to them, and not to me. Thank you. - Ed] |
| Cheapest way to buy Royal Mint gold? Not from the Royal Mint Posted: 27 Sep 2014 02:27 AM PDT  Cheapest way to buy Royal Mint gold? Not from the Royal Mint For years the Royal Mint has sold collectible coins commemorating special events direct to the public. But "bullion" coins made for investment purposes – such as Sovereigns, Britannias or Lunars (introduced last year) – have until now been available only through dealers. Bullion coins are generally produced to a less perfect finish than special-edition coins made for collectors. This means their price tracks more precisely the value of the gold they contain. By comparison, collectable coins typically go on sale – initially at least – for substantially more than the value of the gold they contain. From this week the Royal Mint offers a bullion-coin service through which individuals can buy as few as one coin at a time directly. Buyers create an online account and buy coins via the Mint’s website, where prices change constantly according to the gold market. Once the transaction is complete the Mint dispatches the coins in insured mail which – for a "limited time" – is free within Britain. This interesting essay appeared on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site at 8:14 a.m. BST on their Friday morning---and it's an article I found on the gata.org Internet site. |
| German Bullion Dealers Report Major Increase in Sales Posted: 27 Sep 2014 02:27 AM PDT German Bullion Dealers Report Major Increase in Sales Suppressed prices for gold and silver are obviously considered buying rates by German investors. The German precious metals trade reports a surge in sales. “For about a week we record considerably increased turnover again, which is now on previous year’s level, so it doubled compared to the recent months.”, Rene Lehman from the internet dealer Münzland in Dresden told Goldreporter. “We can confirm that customer demand has considerably increased in the recent days.“, said Dominik Kochmann, CEO of ESG Edelmetalle in Rheinstetten. Daniel Marburger, Director of Coininvest GmbH in Frankfurt/Main also stated that "In the past seven working days we have seen an extreme surge in demand." Well, dear reader, as I said further up in today's column, bullion demand here in Edmonton---especially silver---has really taken flight at our store this week as well. And since JPMorgan et al have put it on sale below the cost of production---why the hell not!!! And that is investment advice---and the buyers have figured that out all by themselves! This news item was posted on the German website goldreporter.de early yesterday evening Europe time---and I found it embedded in a GATA release. |
| Mark O'Byrne: Death Of 'Safe Haven' Gold Greatly Exaggerated Posted: 27 Sep 2014 02:27 AM PDT  Mark O'Byrne: Death Of 'Safe Haven' Gold Greatly Exaggerated It would appear to us that the factors that would make gold a safe-haven asset have not gone away. In fact these factors are strengthening, as described above. The only rational explanation appears to be that gold remains an investment safe-haven as it has always done, but that this is not yet being recognised by the price discovery process in the market. Adding in the fact that there is a continued disconnect between, on the one hand, the global physical gold market primarily driven out of China and India, and on the other hand, the New York gold futures market and unallocated London bullion market on the other hand, then this disconnect should not be expected to persist over the medium term. This is especially the case given the heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic risks. With the gold price not yet signalling the geopolitical and macroeconomic alarm bells that many would have expected it to, the question of gold price manipulation remains a valid question. This must read commentary appeared on the Irish website goldcore.com on Friday. It also showed up in a GATA release as well. |
| Alasdair Macleod: Valuing gold and turkey farming Posted: 27 Sep 2014 02:27 AM PDT  Alasdair Macleod: Valuing gold and turkey farming Defeating markets is the primary objective of central banking, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod writes today, adding that it will come at the expense of hyperinflation, since debt is so overwhelming that interest rates, while already at zero, cannot be raised without collapsing the world economy. Macleod's analysis is headlined "Valuing Gold and Turkey Farming" and it was posted on the goldmoney.com Internet site on Friday. I found it posted on the gata.org Internet site yesterday---and it's worth reading. |
| Koos Jansen: New Shanghai exchange discourages exporting gold from China Posted: 27 Sep 2014 02:27 AM PDT  Koos Jansen: New Shanghai exchange discourages exporting gold from China In the first installment of his review of the operations of the new Shanghai International Gold Exchange in Shanghai's free-trade zone, gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen writes, among other things, that the exchange seems designed to discourage export of gold from China. Jansen's analysis is headlined "The Workings of the Shanghai International Gold Exchange, Part 1" and it's posted at the Singapore Internet site bullionstar.com early Thursday evening local time. I found this gold-related story on the gata.org Internet site yesterday. It's long---and a bit thick, but worth your while. I stole 'all of the above' from another GATA release. |
| Lawrence Williams: Hong Kong-China gold exports weak again, but does it matter? Posted: 27 Sep 2014 02:27 AM PDT  Lawrence Williams: Hong Kong-China gold exports weak again, but does it matter? Reported Hong Kong net exports of gold to mainland China were again at an extremely low level in August at a mere 21.1 tonnes. In previous years the Hong Kong figures have been taken by global gold analysts as something of a proxy for total Chinese gold imports, even though gold was known to have entered the Chinese mainland by other routes, but this had been assumed to be in relatively insignificant quantities. This year, though, China has eased the path to passage of gold through other ports of entry – notably Shanghai and Beijing – for which no data is forthcoming and given that this easing coincides with the apparent downturn in the Hong Kong figures, it could well be the case that imports via these alternative routes have been replacing gold which had previously come in via Hong Kong. On the face of things, if one takes the Hong Kong figures for net gold exports to China alone (see table below), Chinese demand appears to have fallen by a massive 33% this year from 725 tonnes to 485 tonnes. But this is belied by figures for withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange which are only down by around half this percentage, and which have been particularly strong in the past few weeks. This has also coincided with price premiums over the London gold price again appearing in Shanghai. This commentary by Lawrie was posted on the mineweb.com Internet site yesterday sometime---and it's also worth reading. |
| Peak Gold, easier to model than Peak Oil ? Part II Posted: 27 Sep 2014 01:30 AM PDT The Oil Drum |
| Peak Gold, easier to model than Peak Oil ? Part II Posted: 27 Sep 2014 01:30 AM PDT The Oil Drum |
| Education After the Collapse – School When There Is No Classroom Posted: 26 Sep 2014 11:00 PM PDT Shtfplan |
| Harvey Organ: Shanghai Drained of Silver, Bullion Banks Are About to Attack the COMEX! Posted: 26 Sep 2014 09:25 PM PDT Gold & silver expert Harvey Organ joins us this week for an explosive and power packed show discussing: Criminal collusion by the CFTC officials- how CFTC knew what was going on with gold & silver manipulation, and wanted to keep the price suppression game alive while China corners the market More pain ahead for gold […] The post Harvey Organ: Shanghai Drained of Silver, Bullion Banks Are About to Attack the COMEX! appeared first on Silver Doctors. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Speculators Endorsing Lower Copper Prices Posted: 26 Sep 2014 04:34 PM PDT Based on the recent COT report through Tuesday of this week, every single category of speculator, is on the net short side of the copper market, whether it be hedge funds, other large reportables or the general public. Swap Dealers are carrying the entirety of the net long interest in this market at the current time. Copper prices have been grinding steadily lower due to concerns over slowing global economic growth, especially in China but got a bit of a respite today on the US GDP number, which although it was within expectations, showed some pretty good growth for Q2 2014.  Large hedge funds are net short and with the metal probing lower near $17, can be expected to have upped that short position since Tuesday. Other large reportables and the general public both remain net long but both are also selling as they liquidate longs and add to new shorts.   One last thing for right now: Look at this chart of the US Dollar. Is that impressive or what? This week makes ELEVEN CONSECUTIVE WEEKS of higher weekly closes. I will have to go back and survey the charts but surely this is one of the best performances that the greenback has shown in many years. Looking at the chart one can see that the currency has clearly and decisively broken out above a congestion range trade that has been in plce for over 2 1/2 years now. All applicable Fibonacci retracement levels measured off the June 2010 high near 89 have been bested. Conventional Fibonacci analysis would portend a move all the way back to that peak. There does look to be some resistance coming in near the 86.50-87.00 zone prior to that however that would need to be overcome.  By all standards of TA, the Dollar is overbought and is due for some sort of setback; however, currency markets are one of the better trending markets once a solid trend is underway and thus are more prone to ignore overbought or oversold readings than other markets might be. This is because, generally speaking, the fundamental factors that go into establishing a currency trend are of much longer duration in forming and much less prone to undergoing rapid reversals. For now, the Dollar is King once again! |
| Posted: 26 Sep 2014 03:05 PM PDT |
| Dollar Gold And How It Affected Gold Since The Financial Crisis Posted: 26 Sep 2014 01:23 PM PDT The purpose of this exercise of examination of global funding mechanisms is to put together means for inference about the state of dollar funding as it relates to the systemic short. There is no direct path for observation; that is why nobody can figure out how big it is or how it has really changed since 2007. All we know for certain is that it has, and that the paradigm shift is still under way. This last piece pulls in the dollar itself, though even this view is suspect given this rather crude construction. There simply is no such thing as a monolithic, universally representative "price of the dollar." The reason for that is obvious in this context, as there is no conclusive or even widespread understanding of what a "dollar" actually is, let alone the supply of them. The closest we can get to something like that is when the weight of "action" moves the relative price against so many other currencies in the same direction at the same time as to preclude the intrusion of minor factors. A good example is, I think, what occurred in 2008. I don't find it coincidental that the dollar (represented here by the trade-weighted index which overstates some currencies, and understates others, but, again, there is no perfect measure of price) stopped its downward trend right at the moment Bear Stearns failed. That tells me that dollar liquidity which had been strained to that point entered a new phase of heightened problems. And that was confirmed by the steady erosion of TIC flows up until Bear.
The major rise in the "dollar price" occurred when TIC was at its lowest, more than suggesting the problem of funding the massive dollar short and the responsibility of that toward asset price panic downstream. The dollar's trade weighted price stopped rising the very same week the S&P 500, Dow and every other major US stock index recorded their ultimate bottom. This was a coordinated selloff directed by funding issues that were far too widespread to be "contained"; all of which went back more than a year before ultimately finding this catastrophic disposition. Again, that view is confirmed by TIC flows, registered here as a lower level of "inflow" which was in some months actually an "outflow." If you view the dollar as simply those kinds of flows, its rising "price" during the period makes no sense; however, if you think about the short position and how the availability of dollar funding affects what amounts to a short-squeeze, the price of the dollar and the behavior of TIC flows is perfectly consistent.
The chronology of changes thereafter follows the same guidelines. As the dollar short looked toward a rebuilding position in 2009 and into 2010, the eruption of the euro crisis interrupted it in both TIC and the resumed downward channel in the QE2 regime. Ever since dollar funding collapsed in late July and early August 2011, which forced, among other actions, the SNB to peg the franc to the euro and the Fed to reopen dollar swaps, both in September 2011, the trade weighted index has opened what appears to be a very durable upward channel. That would seem to explain the relatively steady price of oil since that time and other factors that demand greater attention in the official inflation estimates. The upward channel of the dollar seems to have been given a boost or push on May 8, 2013, when the first published version of "taper" was given. The selloff and global "tightening" that followed resulted in a short but sharp dollar rise, again consistent with the idea of the dollar short and its funding problems. What is relevant to this moment in time is the renewed dysfunction in repo which seems to indicate dollar stress once more. The particulars of that problem can be found here. As it relates to the wider dollar issue in global finance, it seems that the trade weighted index price of the dollar's steady rise since August may indicate, alongside both repo and TIC flows (prior through July), renewed funding pressure on a global basis.
As the dollar has risen to a level not seen since the first outbreak of the euro problem in mid-2010, it would seem as if the level of dollar stress might be somewhat heightened, though it is impossible to know exactly if that is the case and to what degree. It looks as if the breakout of gold prices below the range that had been so stable since early in the year would add evidence to that theory. Gold prices under these conditions will act inversely, as funding pressures where gold is used as a substitute collateral are depressive. That would further suggest, if correct, that central banks may be back into supplying gold where they were likely absent only a few months ago. Whether that represents an escalation or not really depends on what changed and why. As to the larger issue at hand, the dollar system as it clearly shifts along the axis established all the way back on August 9, 2007, continues to be somewhat disruptive to orderly function. What is interesting in that regard is how QE2 clearly had an impact (seemingly acting as a funding assurance) whereas QE3 & QE4 did not (outside of a short-lived decline in the dollar index that ended exactly when QE3 was officially announced). That would seem to advise that global dollar participants have learned and become aware that QE's tend to be disruptive to conditions and that they do not necessarily represent a positive change in either economic or funding conditions, and certainly not directly. The direction of the dollar now, if the trade weighted price is a valid avatar, at a 4-year high would suggest that the eurodollar system continues to erode toward whatever end awaits the global exchange schematic. Reduced dollar participation means fewer bids, and thus liquidity, when the bell finally tolls. The accumulation of flows and finance I gather here are relatively solid toward that inference.
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| COPPER vs SILVER MANIPULATION: The Tale Of Two Metals Posted: 26 Sep 2014 01:00 PM PDT While it's true that the entire financial system is rigged today, some markets are manipulated more than others. This is certainly true for the precious metals… particularly SILVER. This metal is the whipping boy of the Fed and Cartel Bullion Banks. Most would believe it's impossible to manipulate a metal for decades… it isn't. If […] The post COPPER vs SILVER MANIPULATION: The Tale Of Two Metals appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Marshall Swing: Specs Should Sell Now- Epic Short Squeeze Brewing? Posted: 26 Sep 2014 12:00 PM PDT Here are the likely profits taken by the commercials during the latest COT week: 2 Million ounces at $50 profit is a cool $100 MILLION profit. At $200 an ounce that is $400 MILLION profit. So there are the two ends of the spectrum, not a bad haul for a week. Meanwhile, the speculators appear to suffer from […] The post Marshall Swing: Specs Should Sell Now- Epic Short Squeeze Brewing? appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
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