Gold World News Flash |
- Maguire - Final Stages Of Historic Capitulation In Gold & Silver
- This Is About As Good As Things Are Going To Get For The Middle Class – And It’s Not That Good
- Silver Update: BOTTOM FISHING
- Selling the Family Silver
- The Gold Price Fell $1.20 this Week Ending at $1,214.10
- 3rd Quarter Wrap Up
- Goldman: "Some European Economies Already Qualify As A Japanese-Style Stagnation"
- How to get a second passport: four options that anyone can obtain
- It's The Dollar, Stupid!
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - It May Be Protracted, But It Is an Endgame Nonetheless
- Cheapest way to buy Royal Mint gold? Not from the Royal Mint
- The Escape Velocity Delusion: Running Out Of "Next Year"
- Whoodathunkit: Secret tapes show New York Fed is the tool of the big banks
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - It May Be Protracted, But It Is an Endgame Nonetheless
- Dollar Gold And How It Affected Gold Since The Financial Crisis
- Concerned About The Gold & Silver Smash - Just Read This
- Valuing gold and turkey-farming.
- Gold Not A Safe Haven On Terrorism, Middle East Bombing, Russia ... Yet
- Valuing Gold and Turkey Farming
- Maguire sees huge gold offtake; Jaitly says price suppression will backfire
- Gold $1200 Underpinned by Physical Demand
- Selling the Family Silver
- Inflate or Die! When Leverage Fails and Market Hope Turns to Fear
- The Secret Slave Labor Ring Coming to Your Neighborhood
- German gold demand way up; Hathaway cites sentiment; GoldCore sees intervention
- End of the Central Bank Gold Agreement
- Alasdair Macleod: Valuing gold and turkey farming
- Koos Jansen: New Shanghai exchange discourages exporting gold from China
- Maguire - Stunning 650 Tons Of Gold Bought In Takedown
- Market Forecasts for Stocks, Gold, Silver, Commodities, Financials and Currencies
- Gold Price Drop Draws "Strong Physical Interest" But Short Sellers Prove "Sticky" as Silver See Lowest Weekly Close in 54 Months
- Gold and Silver Bear Phase III Dead Ahead
- Friday Morning Links
- Six banks in UK talks over forex manipulation fines
- Rising GDP "Boosts Consumer Demand" to Buy Gold
- Cheapest way to buy Royal Mint gold? Not from the Royal Mint
- Gold, Silver, Fish Lines, and Rhino Horns
- Mr. Cohan Responds On His Silver Rigging Exposé - Two US National Publications Refused the Story
| Maguire - Final Stages Of Historic Capitulation In Gold & Silver Posted: 26 Sep 2014 09:01 PM PDT  Today London metals trader Andrew Maguire told King World News that what we are seeing in the gold and silver markets is the final stages of a historic capitulation. Maguire also said there was a large buyer in the silver market. Below is what Maguire had to say in Part II of a series of interviews that has now been released on KWN.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This Is About As Good As Things Are Going To Get For The Middle Class – And It’s Not That Good Posted: 26 Sep 2014 08:45 PM PDT by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:
The U.S. Census Bureau has just released some brand new numbers, and they are quite sobering. For example, after accounting for inflation median household income in the United States has declined a total of 8 percent from where it was back in 2007.
That means that middle class families have significantly less purchasing power than they did just prior to the last major financial crisis. And one research firm is projecting that it is going to take until 2019 for median household income to return to the level that we witnessed in 2007…
Of course that projection assumes that the economy will continue to “recover”, which is a very questionable assumption at best. Meanwhile, total household wealth has been declining for middle class families as well. According to the New York Times, the “typical American household” is now worth 36 percent less than it was worth a decade ago. That is a pretty substantial drop. But you never hear our politicians (especially the Democrats) bring up numbers like that because they want us to feel good about things. So why is all of this happening? The biggest reason why the middle class is struggling so much is the lack of good jobs. As the chart posted below demonstrates, the percentage of the working age population that is actually employed is still way, way below where it was prior to the last recession…
The “employment recovery” (the tiny little bump at the end of the chart) has been so miniscule that it is hardly even worth mentioning. At the moment, we still have 1.4 million fewer full-time jobs than we did in 2008 even though more than 100,000 people are added to the U.S. population each month. And a lot of the workers that have lost jobs since the start of the last recession have never been able to find a new one. According to a brand new survey conducted by Rutgers University, more than 20 percent of all workers that have been laid off in the past five years still have not found a new job. Meanwhile, the control freak bureaucrats that run this country continue to kill off small businesses. In recent years we have seen large numbers of small businesses fail, and at this point the rate of small business ownership in the United States is at an all-time low. As a result of everything that you have just read, the middle class is shrinking and dependence on the government is soaring. Today, there are 49 million Americans that are dealing with food insecurity, and Americans received more than 2 trillion dollars in benefits from the federal government last year alone. For many more statistics just like this, please see my previous article entitled “30 stats to show to anyone that does not believe the middle class is being destroyed“. Without a doubt, things are not that good for the middle class in America these days. Unfortunately, the next great wave of financial trouble is rapidly approaching, and once it strikes things are going to get substantially worse for the middle class. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Sep 2014 08:27 PM PDT “Silver was hammered with 70,000 contracts in ONE MINUTE. That’s 350 MILLION OUNCES of silver, in ONE MINUTE.” from BrotherJohnF: Posted for subs on 9/21/14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Sep 2014 06:19 PM PDT Jeffrey Lewis | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Gold Price Fell $1.20 this Week Ending at $1,214.10 Posted: 26 Sep 2014 06:04 PM PDT
Thursday's 24 hour trading in silver saw three bottoms about $17.40, off of which silver rallied today to $17.73 about 3:30 a.m. eastern time. But the downwave from that high seems to have dropped in three legs, which, if accurate, suggests it was correcting the upmove. In other words, the direction of trend is up. That close at $17.477 cents was classic tape painting, since I hardly saw the SILVER PRICE trading under $17.62 all day. End of the day found silver at $17.68. On a five day chart the GOLD PRICE made a low this week around $1,206, climbed sharply off that Thursday bottom only to be smacked down again today, but down to a higher low ($1,212.80). Gold closed today, as it did yesterday, ABOVE its downtrend line from 1 September. Yes, that does mean something. Add to that the MACD turning up, and the RSI moving up out of oversold-land, and there are the ingredients for an upturn. However, no one has yet lit the eye under the pan. Next week and October promise an abundance of pain for stock investors. But until that US dollar Index takes a breather, silver and gold will keep struggling. Look for them to stage a sudden, sharp rally within the next two weeks. Gold may keep chiseling lower in the meantime. A break below $1,205 sends gold lower, above $1,237 sends it higher. Silver needs to clear $18.00 to begin to turn up, and $18.50 to convince a crowd. About the time my treacherous brain thinks it's time to throw in the towel on gravity and monetary reality and call Mother Janet Yellum a winner, common sense slaps my jaws and brings me back. I interviewed the great Harry Browne in 1993 when I was researching for Silver Bonanza, and he said one thing I've never forgotten: the size of the rally depends on the preceding government price suppression. So, the longer the government suppressed silver and gold, all the way through the 1960s and 1970s, the stronger the eventual rally and blow up. In the past 5 years the Fed has increased is balance sheet by about 4 times, a number for which history offers no comparison. The Fed has also suppressed interest rates to zero percent, and, I doubt not, the prices of silver and gold. At the same time, its money printing has driven the stock market farther into the stratosphere. What happens when the suppression can no longer be continued, and it all blows up? This is all confusion until you look at the chart and realize that, for all the big moves up and down, stocks have steadily worked lower with lower lows and lower highs, in other words, a downtrend. Yesterday the S&P500 closed lower than its last low (19 September), which proclaims gravity wreaking its vengeance. Today's rally changed nothing. However, it does seem a bit suspicious, even to such an unsuspicious mind as mine, that stocks could find no traction until 2:00, when "some" Big Buyer entered the market. I won't say "Nice Government Men" of the Plunge Protection Team, but y'all know that's who I mean. Dow in gold rose 1.19% (thanks to gold's fall) to end at 14.03 oz (G$290.03 gold dollars). Still needs to close under the 20 DMA (13.78 oz, G$284.86) to begin to confirm a reversal. However, the MACD had turned down already, as has the RSI. Dow in Silver ended at 969.58 oz (S$1,253.60 silver dollars), up 0.7%, after making a new high on Wednesday at 974.25oz (S$1,259.64). Still wildly overbought. On 26 September 1900 the US Mint ceased minting $1 and $3 gold coins and the three cent piece. Why, y'all ask, were they minting $3 gold coins and 3 cent coins? Because they bought a sheet of postage stamps, why else? Y'all enjoy your weekend! Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Sep 2014 06:00 PM PDT “The future is here – it's just not evenly distributed.” ~ William Gibson By Catherine Austin Fitts The US dollar index moved above 85 this last week while the US stock market continued to levitate. This caused hundreds of pundits to scratch their heads looking for fashionable ways of explaining why managed [...] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Goldman: "Some European Economies Already Qualify As A Japanese-Style Stagnation" Posted: 26 Sep 2014 05:42 PM PDT For the longest time anyone suggesting that Europe's economic collapse was nothing short of a deflationary collapse (which would only be remedied with the kind of a money paradopping response that Japan is currently experiment with and where, for example, prices of TVs are rising at a 10% clip courtesy of the BOJ before prices rise even more) aka a "Japan 2.0" event, was widely mocked by the very serious economist establishment, and every uptick in the EuroSTOXX was heralded by the drama majors posing as financial analysts as the incontrovertible sign the European recovery has finally arrived. Well, they were wrong, and Europe is now facing if not already deep in a triple-dip recession. Which also explains why now it is up to the ECB to do all those failed things that the BOJ did before the Fed convinced it it needs to do even more of those things that failed the first time around, just so the super rich can get even richer in the shortest time possible. So we were a little surprised when none other than Goldman Sachs today diverged with the ranks of the very serious economists and the drama major pundits, and declared that "recent trends in some European economies already qualify as a Japanese-style stagnation." Oops. Full note from Goldman:
So with that in mind are you going to buy European stocks? Think again suggests Goldman:
Wait, Goldman not pitching a buy? That can only mean one thing: the Goldman prop desk is buying European equities hand over fist ahead of the ECB's QE, even as Goldman has been selling US equities with both hands over the past few months. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| How to get a second passport: four options that anyone can obtain Posted: 26 Sep 2014 05:20 PM PDT from Sovereign Man:
The idea of international diversification is to spread different aspects of your life across different jurisdictions so that no single country has total control over you. Only then can you be truly free and independent. One key node in any international diversification strategy is having multiple citizenships and passports. Having another passport means having more options. It means you can travel. It means you can live in other countries. You can do business in other countries. You have greater ease in opening investment and financial accounts. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Sep 2014 05:08 PM PDT Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,  Wyland Stanley Studebaker motor car in repair shop, San Francisco 1919 There are substantial and profound changes developing in the global economy, and in my view we should all pay attention, because everyone will be greatly affected. Some more than others, but still. ‘Metal markets’, be they gold, silver, copper or iron, exhibit distress and uncertainty, prices are falling, or at least seem to be. Partly, that is because of the apparently still ongoing investigation in the Chinese port of Qingdao, through which a $10 billion ‘currency fraud’ is reported today, ostensibly related to the double/triple borrowing that has been exposed, in which the same iron ore and copper shipments were used as collateral multiple times. This could soon bring such shipments to the market and add to the oversupply already in place. Combined with ever more evidence of a slowdown in Chinese growth numbers, this doesn’t look good for iron, copper, aluminum. But the Slow Boat To – or from – China is by no means the only reason metal prices are dropping. The main one is, plain and simple, the US dollar. Gold, for instance, hasn’t changed much at all when compared to a year ago, against the euro. Whereas it’s lost 8-9% against the dollar over the last 2-3 months, about the same percentage as that same euro. The movement is not – so much – in gold, it’s in the dollar. To claim that this is the market at work makes no sense anymore. Today central banks, for all intents and purposes, are the market. As Tyler Durden makes clear once again for those who still hadn’t clued in: Bank Of Japan Buys A Record Amount Of Equities In August
Shinzo Abe wants the yen to fall, and he gets his (death)wish, because the Japanese economy and the financial situation of its government are in such bad shape, there’s nowhere else to go for the yen. That doesn’t spell nice things for the Japanese people, who will see prices for imported items (energy!) rise, but for all we know Abe sees that as a way to push up inflation. That’s not going to work, what we will push up instead is hardship. And that plan to force pension funds into stocks is just plain insane, an idea he got from US pension funds which are 50% in stocks – which is just as crazy. Draghi talks down the euro, says a headline today, but I don’t see it; I wonder why that would be supposed to work now, and not in the preceding years, when it was just as obvious how poorly Europe was doing. Sure, there’s a new ‘threat’ in the AfD (Alternative for Germany), a right wing anti-euro party, but that’s not – for now – enough to cause the euro slide we’re seeing. The movement is not – so much – in the euro, it’s in the dollar. Why the Fed moves the way it does, the moment it does, in its three pronged combo of fully tapering QE, hiking rates (or at least threatening to) and pushing up the greenback, is not immediately clear, but a few suggestions come to mind, some of which I mentioned earlier this month in The Fed Has A Big Surprise Waiting For You and in What Game Is Being Played With the US Dollar?. My overall impression is that the Fed has given up on the US economy, in the sense that it realizes – and mind you, this may go back quite a while – that without constant and ongoing life-support, the economy is down for the count. And eternal life-support is not an option, even Keynesian economists understand that. Add to this that the -real – economy was never a Fed priority in the first place, but a side-issue, and it becomes easier to understand why Yellen et al choose to do what they do, and when. When the full taper is finalized next month, and without rate rises and a higher dollar, the real US economy would start shining through, and what’s more important – for the Fed, Washington and Wall Street -, the big banks would start ‘suffering’ again. Just about all bets are on the same side of the trade today, and that’s bad news for Wall Street banks’ profits. The higher dollar will bring some temporary relief for Americans, in lower prices at the pump, and for imported products in stores, for example. Higher rates, however, will put a ton and a half of pressure bearing down on everyone who’s in debt, and that’s most Americans. The idea is probably that by the time this becomes obvious and gets noticed, we’re far enough down the line that there’s no going back. Besides, we could be in full-scale war by then. One or two IS attacks in the west would do. The higher dollar – certainly in combination with higher rates – will also mean a very precarious situation for the US government, which will have to pay a lot more in borrowing costs, but our leadership seems to think that at least in the short term, they can keep that under control. And then after that, the flood. Maybe the US can start borrowing in yuan, like the UK wants to do? To reiterate: there is no accident or coincidence here, and neither is it the market reacting to anything. That’s not an option in this multiple choice, since there is no market left. It’s all central banks all the way (like the universe made up of turtles). It’s faith hope and charity, and the greatest of these is the Federal Reserve. Is they didn’t want a higher dollar, there would not be one. Ergo: they’re pushing it higher. The Bank of England will follow in goose lockstep, while the ECB and Bank of Japan can’t. That’s earthquake and tsunami material. The biggest richest guys and galls will do fine wherever they live. The rest, not so much. Wherever they live . At the Automatic Earth, we’ve been telling you to get out of debt for years, and we reiterate that call today with more urgency. Other than that, it’s wait and see how many export-oriented US jobs will be lost to the surging buckaroo. And how a choice few nations in the northern hemisphere will make through the cold days of winter. Whatever you do, don’t take this lightly. A major move is afoot. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - It May Be Protracted, But It Is an Endgame Nonetheless Posted: 26 Sep 2014 03:32 PM PDT Le Cafe Américain | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cheapest way to buy Royal Mint gold? Not from the Royal Mint Posted: 26 Sep 2014 02:46 PM PDT By Richard Dyson For years the Royal Mint has sold collectible coins commemmorating special events direct to the public. But "bullion" coins made for investment purposes -- such as Sovereigns, Britannias, or Lunars (introduced last year) -– have until now been available only through dealers. Bullion coins are generally produced to a less perfect finish than special-edition coins made for collectors. This means their price tracks more precisely the value of the gold they contain. By comparison, collectable coins typically go on sale -- initially at least -- for substantially more than the value of the gold they contain. ... But buying direct isn't the cheapest method. The table below, based on prices quoted within minutes of each other, shows how the prices being offered by the Royal Mint's service compares with two low-cost providers of the same coins. Most crucial of all, the market price for gold (known as the "spot price") is shown in the top row, so you can see how much of a premium is being paid. ... ... For the remainder of the report: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/111142... ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/nodBy Frank Tang NEW YORK -- The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) said on Thursday it appointed Citigroup as a market maker, underscoring the bank's ambitions to expand into the precious metals sector while others are exiting due to regulatory concerns. LBMA said it named Citibank, a unit of Citigroup, as a spot market-making member effective Thursday. Currently, LBMA has 12 market makers that serve in either one, two, or all three of the spot, forwards, and options markets. They make markets by quoting two-way prices in both gold and silver products to other market makers. ... ... For the remainder of the report: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/lbma-citigroup-idUSL2N0RQ2A820... ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Canadian Investor Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/event/31/canadian-investor-conference-toronto-... New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16e/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Escape Velocity Delusion: Running Out Of "Next Year" Posted: 26 Sep 2014 02:34 PM PDT Submitted by Alhambra Partners' Jeffrey Snider via Contra Corner blog, Reflections upon the past few years bring out valid criticisms about “being wrong.” I have made no secret that I favor the bearish interpretation of eventually the stock market, but immediately the economy. The erosion and attrition I describe does not look like anything seen before, except the months and years immediately preceding the Great Recession. But that inevitably brings back the rejoinder that there is no such immediate danger right now, as bad as the economy may be there is nothing financially equivalent to the conditions that existed prior to August 9, 2007; with the further inference that a floor exists, economically speaking, today where a trap-door was present then. What we are really describing, as investors, are the risks to the asset case as it exists now. The optimistic view, which is represented by almost every mainstream economist and policymaker, is really the basis for what they would like to believe is a monetary panacea and thus bull market. The economy is promised to be as a full recovery each and every year, to no ultimate avail. As Stanley Fischer put it recently:
Even reading that acknowledgement you realize what the bull case actually is – it is not the recovery or the economy as it exists, it is the promise of one and the plausibility for that promise. Under that paradigm, the market doesn’t care whether orthodox economists are “right” as much as I may be “wrong”, only that there is always next year. Other places in the world, however, are running out of “next year.” The same assumptions have fueled the trajectory of asset prices in Europe, with much the same vigorous results. Those that have expressed doubts about Europe’s positive numbers and the durability of any recovery were met with the same howls of being “wrong” as stocks rose exponentially (it seemed) alongside the sovereign debt prices of every nation that appeared desperately or even fatally broke only two years ago. Given what has taken place recently with regard to economic projections and confidence in Europe, does “next year” still hold the same regard as far as stock and bond prices? Again, as in the US, the description and analysis of European economics as it may be outside of the overly optimistic recovery narrative is the difference between seeing a bull market take shape and a monetary-driven asset bubble. The same can be said of Japan, though the unraveling there has been far quicker than anyone thought (except everyone who was “wrong” doubting Abenomics and the Nikkei). That is the context into which we provide this analysis. The economy and the market are not the same, as Joe Calhoun regularly points out, but they do bear resemblance over the longer-term. At some point, given any large disparity, there has to be convergence and reckoning. Identifying these divergences not only colors the interpretations of market prices, it allows investors to identify risk. The greatest risk in investing under these conditions is the Greater Fool problem. Anyone using mainstream economic projections and thus expecting a bull market will, if I and those like me are eventually proven correct, be that Fool. That was what transpired in 2008 as the entire industry moved toward overdrive to convince anyone even thinking about mitigation or risk adjustments that it was “no big deal.” Read through the 2008 FOMC transcripts, as I have done, and get a feel for what was taking place then and how it related to identifying the divergence of the economy with various markets (just as housing had done almost two years earlier, and where the same actors proclaimed the same “don’t worry” nothingness to the imbalance as it imploded in slow motion). For the mainstream, there was not to be recession in 2008 until it became too obvious to ignore.
Bernanke was not alone in that “confidence” as it filtered throughout economic projections and even what brokers and investment advisors recommended and said to their clients. For the most part, retail investors sat out 2008, passively watching as their 401(k)s became 201(k)s as the joke went. They did so because optimism ruled where it did not belong, because the cracks in the dollar system were not apparent outside of the technical complexity upon which the whole mess relied, a condition wholly different from those same faults never being presented. But 2008 was 2008, and 2014 is a different circumstance. Or is it? We see the same types of cracks appear and widen, dysfunction continues on a global scale and the economy even here never lives up to those promises. So even evaluating on the individual circumstances here leads to the same framework – identifying the possibility that the economy may not be providing the support markets are expecting. Further, the potential trajectory of that may be such that “next year” never actually comes, and at some point “markets” become too aware. It’s not as if mainstream orthodoxy has proven itself in that regard, regardless of anyone’s feelings about the current case. They have even invented a highly academic cover story to try to explain why we have yet to see “next year”; secular stagnation is both an implicit admission that economists have been wrong of their own accord, but yet, curiously, markets never adjust to that or how that might shade these same projections year after year. I have serious doubts that the running theme of secular stagnation penetrates the rationalizations that currently anesthetize stock investors, for if they actually understood what it was about there would be very likely be far, far different results.
The combined account of what was reported above with the idea of secular stagnation is bubbles as far as they eye can see. It also means exactly this kind of disconnect between markets and the economy, one that is opened up on a regular basis as a matter of policy. At Jackson Hole this year, Janet Yellen’s speech was devoted, in part, to the basic idea I paraphrased at the time as:
Investments are about two facets, as Doug Terry is fond of reminding: returns which are all very apparent right now, and risk. Risk is defined as keeping those positive returns for more than just numbers on a long ago discarded custodial statement. You can generate all the positive return you want on the upside, but you better have a solid handle on risk of a downside that buries the returns wherever and whenever it may show up. An economy that never lives up to the hype set against rapidly rising prices is simply a highly increased probability of that. The Fed is practically begging in that direction because they do not want to be Bernanke/Greenspan’s deer in the headlights for a third time. However, that doesn’t mean there won’t be a third time, only that they are on record now trying to “do something” about it. Will markets listen, or is the cloak of rationalizations about “next year” too densely packed? How you handle the interim period before that time is determined by your own comfort with various analyses of divergences, and whether you feel you can accurately gauge the Greater Fool problem. No matter the desire for return, you better understand the context. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Whoodathunkit: Secret tapes show New York Fed is the tool of the big banks Posted: 26 Sep 2014 02:30 PM PDT Inside the New York Fed: Secret Recordings and a Culture Clash By Jake Bernstein Barely a year removed from the devastation of the 2008 financial crisis, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York faced a crossroads. Congress had set its sights on reform. The biggest banks in the nation had shown that their failure could threaten the entire financial system. Lawmakers wanted new safeguards. The Federal Reserve, and, by dint of its location off Wall Street, the New York Fed, was the logical choice to head the effort. Except it had failed miserably in catching the meltdown. New York Fed President William Dudley had to answer two questions quickly: Why had his institution blown it, and how could it do better? So he called in an outsider, a Columbia University finance professor named David Beim, and granted him unlimited access to investigate. In exchange, the results would remain secret. After interviews with dozens of New York Fed employees, Beim learned something that surprised even him. The most daunting obstacle the New York Fed faced in overseeing the nation's biggest financial institutions was its own culture. The New York Fed had become too risk-averse and deferential to the banks it supervised. Its examiners feared contradicting bosses, who too often forced their findings into an institutional consensus that watered down much of what they did. ... ... For the remainder of the report: http://www.propublica.org/article/carmen-segarras-secret-recordings-from... ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - It May Be Protracted, But It Is an Endgame Nonetheless Posted: 26 Sep 2014 02:13 PM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dollar Gold And How It Affected Gold Since The Financial Crisis Posted: 26 Sep 2014 01:23 PM PDT The purpose of this exercise of examination of global funding mechanisms is to put together means for inference about the state of dollar funding as it relates to the systemic short. There is no direct path for observation; that is why nobody can figure out how big it is or how it has really changed since 2007. All we know for certain is that it has, and that the paradigm shift is still under way. This last piece pulls in the dollar itself, though even this view is suspect given this rather crude construction. There simply is no such thing as a monolithic, universally representative "price of the dollar." The reason for that is obvious in this context, as there is no conclusive or even widespread understanding of what a "dollar" actually is, let alone the supply of them. The closest we can get to something like that is when the weight of "action" moves the relative price against so many other currencies in the same direction at the same time as to preclude the intrusion of minor factors. A good example is, I think, what occurred in 2008. I don't find it coincidental that the dollar (represented here by the trade-weighted index which overstates some currencies, and understates others, but, again, there is no perfect measure of price) stopped its downward trend right at the moment Bear Stearns failed. That tells me that dollar liquidity which had been strained to that point entered a new phase of heightened problems. And that was confirmed by the steady erosion of TIC flows up until Bear.
The major rise in the "dollar price" occurred when TIC was at its lowest, more than suggesting the problem of funding the massive dollar short and the responsibility of that toward asset price panic downstream. The dollar's trade weighted price stopped rising the very same week the S&P 500, Dow and every other major US stock index recorded their ultimate bottom. This was a coordinated selloff directed by funding issues that were far too widespread to be "contained"; all of which went back more than a year before ultimately finding this catastrophic disposition. Again, that view is confirmed by TIC flows, registered here as a lower level of "inflow" which was in some months actually an "outflow." If you view the dollar as simply those kinds of flows, its rising "price" during the period makes no sense; however, if you think about the short position and how the availability of dollar funding affects what amounts to a short-squeeze, the price of the dollar and the behavior of TIC flows is perfectly consistent.
The chronology of changes thereafter follows the same guidelines. As the dollar short looked toward a rebuilding position in 2009 and into 2010, the eruption of the euro crisis interrupted it in both TIC and the resumed downward channel in the QE2 regime. Ever since dollar funding collapsed in late July and early August 2011, which forced, among other actions, the SNB to peg the franc to the euro and the Fed to reopen dollar swaps, both in September 2011, the trade weighted index has opened what appears to be a very durable upward channel. That would seem to explain the relatively steady price of oil since that time and other factors that demand greater attention in the official inflation estimates. The upward channel of the dollar seems to have been given a boost or push on May 8, 2013, when the first published version of "taper" was given. The selloff and global "tightening" that followed resulted in a short but sharp dollar rise, again consistent with the idea of the dollar short and its funding problems. What is relevant to this moment in time is the renewed dysfunction in repo which seems to indicate dollar stress once more. The particulars of that problem can be found here. As it relates to the wider dollar issue in global finance, it seems that the trade weighted index price of the dollar's steady rise since August may indicate, alongside both repo and TIC flows (prior through July), renewed funding pressure on a global basis.
As the dollar has risen to a level not seen since the first outbreak of the euro problem in mid-2010, it would seem as if the level of dollar stress might be somewhat heightened, though it is impossible to know exactly if that is the case and to what degree. It looks as if the breakout of gold prices below the range that had been so stable since early in the year would add evidence to that theory. Gold prices under these conditions will act inversely, as funding pressures where gold is used as a substitute collateral are depressive. That would further suggest, if correct, that central banks may be back into supplying gold where they were likely absent only a few months ago. Whether that represents an escalation or not really depends on what changed and why. As to the larger issue at hand, the dollar system as it clearly shifts along the axis established all the way back on August 9, 2007, continues to be somewhat disruptive to orderly function. What is interesting in that regard is how QE2 clearly had an impact (seemingly acting as a funding assurance) whereas QE3 & QE4 did not (outside of a short-lived decline in the dollar index that ended exactly when QE3 was officially announced). That would seem to advise that global dollar participants have learned and become aware that QE's tend to be disruptive to conditions and that they do not necessarily represent a positive change in either economic or funding conditions, and certainly not directly. The direction of the dollar now, if the trade weighted price is a valid avatar, at a 4-year high would suggest that the eurodollar system continues to erode toward whatever end awaits the global exchange schematic. Reduced dollar participation means fewer bids, and thus liquidity, when the bell finally tolls. The accumulation of flows and finance I gather here are relatively solid toward that inference.
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| Concerned About The Gold & Silver Smash - Just Read This Posted: 26 Sep 2014 11:16 AM PDT  Today King World News is featuring a piece by a man whose recently released masterpiece has been praised around the world, and also recognized as some of the most unique work in the gold market. Below is the latest exclusive KWN piece by Ronald-Peter Stoferle of Incrementum AG out of Liechtenstein.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Valuing gold and turkey-farming. Posted: 26 Sep 2014 11:00 AM PDT Finance and Eco. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Not A Safe Haven On Terrorism, Middle East Bombing, Russia ... Yet Posted: 26 Sep 2014 10:46 AM PDT With escalating conflict in the Middle East, an unresolved conflict in the Ukraine, and various other geo-political risks on the horizon such as the contagion risk of Ebola, it would be expected that the longstanding 'safe haven' qualities of gold would come into play as they have done in the past. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Valuing Gold and Turkey Farming Posted: 26 Sep 2014 10:39 AM PDT Today's financial markets are built on the sand of unsound currencies. Consequently brokers, banks and investors are wedded to monetary inflation and have lost both the desire and ability to understand gold and properly value it. Furthermore governments and central banks in welfare-driven states see markets themselves as the biggest threat to their successful management of the economy, a threat that needs to be tamed. This is the backdrop to the outlook for the price of gold today and of the forces an investor in gold is pitted against. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Maguire sees huge gold offtake; Jaitly says price suppression will backfire Posted: 26 Sep 2014 10:34 AM PDT 1:30p ET friday, September 26, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: London trader Andrew Maguire tells King World News today that the recent pounding of the gold price in the futures markets has resulted in offtake of about 650 tonnes of real metal in the last month: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/9/26_Ma... And fund manager and economist Sandeep Jaitly tells the Mexican financial journalist Guillermo Barba that gold price suppression by central banks will backfire by encouraging people to hoard more metal at discounted prices: http://inteligenciafinancieraglobal.blogspot.mx/2014/09/nothing-is-norma... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold $1200 Underpinned by Physical Demand Posted: 26 Sep 2014 10:30 AM PDT This week saw gold rally $15 to $1233 on Tuesday before sliding to $1207 yesterday morning, then rallying in the afternoon. Silver's moves tracked gold's, bottoming out at $17.30 yesterday at the London opening. This morning precious metals are firmer in pre-LBMA trade, reflecting some short-covering ahead of the weekend. The action, as has often been the case recently, is in paper markets with hedge funds shorting gold and silver against a strong dollar. This can be readily seen in the following chart of Managed Money shorts on Comex, which is back in record oversold territory. The chart of silver is similar. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Sep 2014 10:15 AM PDT Purchasing and securing precious metals is easy. It's like stepping out of the river where you can see the mainstream headed for the big waterfall. Figuring out when to jump back in the river and bring it back into the system is a whole other challenge. Some of the basic rules of investing to live by (that go along with cheap options with low downside and infinite upside), include: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Inflate or Die! When Leverage Fails and Market Hope Turns to Fear Posted: 26 Sep 2014 10:11 AM PDT In today's TedBits we will be outlining a lot of smoke signals. They signal fires burning and about to break out. As everyone is aware, the Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy for almost a year now and has been joined by the Chinese central bank. The Federal Reserve has been reducing its balance sheet expansion from $85 billion a month (85,000 million) to zero in mid-November. While the fed does not characterize it as a tightening, it is one. Numerous studies have put the amount of interest rate reduction to -3 % when QE3 was at full bore. Now that the reduction is approaching zero negative interest rates are ending, they have raised rates by about 3% in real terms. We are Austrians at TedBits and believe in all of the core truths from Ludwig Von Mises: "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." - Ludwig von Mises | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Secret Slave Labor Ring Coming to Your Neighborhood Posted: 26 Sep 2014 10:03 AM PDT Last night, a close friend and I watched a video titled "Mass Incarceration in the U.S." The figures were nothing less than shocking. "America has about 4% of the world's people," Hank Green, the creator of the video began, "and about 25% of the world's incarcerated people. "We have the highest incarceration rate in the world," he says as this graph pops up on the screen:
There are about 2 million people in state, federal, and private prisons in the States. That's 500,000 more than China. And China's population is five times greater. The past few decades have seen a prison population explosion: We had fewer than 300,000 inmates in 1972. By 2000, that figure grew to 2 million. Now, what he said next is pretty disturbing. So much so, I did some deep digging to make sure he's right… And, he's right. "Forty-one percent of American juveniles and young adults have been arrested by the time they turn 23. Forty-one percent. That's horrifying. Worse, Green says, "Children as young as 13 years old have been sentenced to die in prison." "And," he goes on, "our prisons violate international standards. Solitary confinement increases instability and violence in inmates and is considered by international law to be torture. "But in America, it's not regulated by anyone except the prison officials. No judge. No jury. "Arguably, the most devastating form of punishment we enact in this country and yet there is no appeals process."
"Punishment," Green explains, "is only one piece of a much larger crime reduction pie. "And it's an expensive one, with some institutions paying more than $100,000 per year, per prisoner."
Instead of efforts to rehabilitate and integrate criminals back into society, something really grim is happening… "They don't have to worry about strikes or paying unemployment insurance, vacations or comp time," Vicky Pelaez wrote in Global Research. "All of their workers are full-time, and never arrive late or are absent because of family problems; moreover, if they don't like the pay of 25 cents an hour and refuse to work, they are locked up in isolation cells." "For the tycoons who have invested in the prison industry," Pelaez writes, "it has been like finding a pot of gold." Ten years ago, you would've only found five private prisons in the country. And collectively, they held a population of 2,000. Today, there are 100, with a population of 62,000. Are privatized prisons to blame? Not exactly… Because they're not really private. Government contracting, often lumped in with the "private sector" is anything but. "It's a grey netherworld," says Nick Sorrentino on the Against Crony Capitalism blog, "part of the crony zone in the economy. Many contractors would not exist if it were not for government mandated rules and regulations. The 'private' prison industry operates in this twilight where taxpayers pay for profits." And it's a vicious cycle. Corporate stockholders use their connections to lobby for longer sentences and pettier laws to expand their workforce. They then pay them 24 cents to make everything from military equipment to Victoria's Secret lingerie. And if they don't meet their sales quota? You pay for it. (More on that in a moment…) The result? An overinflated industry that has trade shows… conventions… and mail-order catalogs… All based on the assumption that the government will keep tightening the laws and the "criminals" will keep sliding in. The Corrections Corporation of America (CCA) is the nation's largest owner of private prisons. In the past two decades, revenue has climbed by more than 500%. CCA is a $2 billion "private" company that's 100% dependent on government contracts. Forty-one percent of American juveniles and young adults have been arrested by the time they turn 23. And it has big plans for the future: In 2012, CCA sent a letter to 48 governors offering to buy and run their prisons for 20 years. Of many stipulations, one demanded the prisons maintain a 90% occupancy rate, regardless of crime rates. If they can't maintain that rate, taxpayers would pay the penalty. Yes, you pay the prison if your neighborhood becomes safer. Shocking? It's nothing new. It's actually a common industry practice. A report from privatization accountability group In the Public Interest, reviewed 62 operating private prison contracts in the States. They found that 41 of those stipulated that local or state governments were required to keep the facilities between 80-100% full. All big private prison corporations attempt to push these requirements. And, most of the time, the governments placidly comply. How do we fix it? It starts with our draconian drug laws. Bad laws are filling prisons with non-violent citizens of the United States. People who would often otherwise abide the law and harm no one are being thrown into jail. And they're being exploited for what is essentially slave labor. By taking on a rational drug policy, we could cut the prison population in half… and stop Washington's "private" slave labor ring. Regards, Chris Campbell Ed. Note: Government overreach doesn’t end there, of course. Far from it… The feds now have their hand in almost every aspect of your daily life, right down to the food you eat. But you don’t have to sit idly by and watch your freedoms disappear. There are a bunch of simple things you can do every day that can make a huge impact on your personal liberty. Readers of the FREE Laissez Faire Today e-letter receive several of these unique tips every single day… and they’re lives are much richer for it. Click here now to sign up for Laissez Faire Today, for FREE, to find out for yourself. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| German gold demand way up; Hathaway cites sentiment; GoldCore sees intervention Posted: 26 Sep 2014 09:58 AM PDT 12:57p ET Friday, September 26, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: GoldReporter says gold demand in Germany has risen sharply with lower prices: http://www.goldreporter.de/german-bullion-dealers-report-major-increase-... The Toqueville Gold Fund's John Hathaway tells King World News that sentiment among gold investors has declined to a point that previously has signalled market bottoms: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/9/26_Ha... And GoldCore's daily commentary says "some of the current gold price weakness may be related to nonpublic gold market interventions by some of the world's central banks": https://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog/Death_Of_Safe_Haven_Gold_Greatly_... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy precious metals free of value-added tax throughout Europe Europe Silver Bullion is a fast-growing dealer sourcing its products from renowned mints, refiners, and distributors. Because of a legal loophole that will close soon, you can acquire the world's most popular bullion coins free of value-added tax throughout the European Union. You can collect your order in person at our headquarters in Tallinn, Estonia, or have it delivered in any of the 28 EU countries. Europe Silver Bullion is owned and operated by North American and European experts in selling, storing, and transporting precious metals. We have an extensive product inventory of silver, gold, platinum, and palladium, and our network spans the world. Visit us at www.europesilverbullion.com. Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| End of the Central Bank Gold Agreement Posted: 26 Sep 2014 09:51 AM PDT Well, end of one CBGA, start of another. Which says a lot about the Eurozone crisis... THIS isn't your father's gold market, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. It isn't even the same market as 10 years ago. Because the buyers are different. So too are the sellers. During the 1970s, demand was led by investors...primarily in the rich West. Whereas today, the biggest buyers by far are Asian consumers, as the World Gold Council notes in its latest Gold Investor report. Despite much lower incomes, India and China save a huge proportion of their earnings...and spend an ever greater share on gold the more income they earn. This makes it a "superior good" says Professor Avinash Persaud. Commissioned by the World Gold Council to study world gold buying demand, he says it increases faster than household income or GDP...something we've noted of Chinese gold demand before. On the supply side too, the gold world has changed. Besides a small rise to record mining output, the key source of the last 5 years was "scrap" sales from people needing to raise cash amid the financial crisis (a flow that's now drying up. Fast). During the 1980s and 1990s, in contrast, central banks were the big source of existing above-ground metal, selling it down as prices fell...and worsening the drop by helping gold miners "hedge" their production by lending them metal to sell as well. Instead of the gold, Western central banks bought more "productive" assets. You know, like US Dollars, Euros, and government debt. Come the financial crisis however, central banks as a group worldwide turned into net buyers for the first time since the mid-1960s. First because emerging-market nations wanted to lose some of the Dollars piling up in their vaults (thanks to America's perpetual trade deficit). Second because Western central banks...most notably in Europe...decided that selling gold during a crisis isn't so clever. So, despite having an agreement in place to cap annual sales...aimed at avoiding the clumsy, price-damaging gold sales made by the UK in 1999...central banks in the West have stopped selling gold altogether. We think that's likely to stay true all through the new 5-year agreement, signed in May and running from tomorrow until September 2019. The current CBGA (as we gold nerds know it) has seen European states sell barely 10% of their agreed limit. The new agreement doesn't bother setting a cap at all. That might suggest they're secretly planning big sales in future. But on the contrary, the lack of sales under the current CBGA made its 400 tonnes per year limit look stupid. Fewer than 18 tonnes were sold over the last 3 years in total...all of them from the German Bundesbank to mint commemorative coins. Just what would be the point of setting a sales limit from here? Fact is, central banks sell gold when times are good. They buy or hold when things are bad. They are not selling today. We don't think Eurozone central bank chiefs have any plans to sell until 2019 at the soonest. We do think there's a message in there about the Eurozone crisis. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Alasdair Macleod: Valuing gold and turkey farming Posted: 26 Sep 2014 09:17 AM PDT 12:16p ET Friday, September 26, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Defeating markets is the primary objective of central banking, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod writes today, adding that it will come at the expense of hyperinflation, since debt is so overwhelming that interest rates, while already at zero, cannot be raised without collapsing the world economy. Macleod's analysis is headlined "Valuing Gold and Turkey Farming" and it's posted at GoldMoney here: http://www.goldmoney.com/research/analysis/valuing-gold-and-turkey-farmi... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Tresurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/nodBy Frank Tang NEW YORK -- The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) said on Thursday it appointed Citigroup as a market maker, underscoring the bank's ambitions to expand into the precious metals sector while others are exiting due to regulatory concerns. LBMA said it named Citibank, a unit of Citigroup, as a spot market-making member effective Thursday. Currently, LBMA has 12 market makers that serve in either one, two, or all three of the spot, forwards, and options markets. They make markets by quoting two-way prices in both gold and silver products to other market makers. ... ... For the remainder of the report: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/lbma-citigroup-idUSL2N0RQ2A820... ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Canadian Investor Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/event/31/canadian-investor-conference-toronto-... New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16e/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Koos Jansen: New Shanghai exchange discourages exporting gold from China Posted: 26 Sep 2014 08:50 AM PDT 11:50a ET Friday, September 26, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: In the first installment of his review of the operations of the new Shanghai International Gold Exchange in Shanghai's free-trade zone, gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen writes, among other things, that the exchange seems designed to discourage export of gold from China. Jansen's analysis is headlined "The Workings Of The Shanghai International Gold Exchange, Part 1" and it's posted at Bullion Star here: https://www.bullionstar.com/article/the%20workings%20of%20the%20shanghai... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Maguire - Stunning 650 Tons Of Gold Bought In Takedown Posted: 26 Sep 2014 08:33 AM PDT  Today London metals trader Andrew Maguire told King World News that a stunning 650 tons of physical gold has been purchased by sovereigns and central banks during the recent takedown in the gold market. Below is what London metals trader Maguire had to say in Part I of a series of interviews that will be released today on KWN.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Market Forecasts for Stocks, Gold, Silver, Commodities, Financials and Currencies Posted: 26 Sep 2014 08:25 AM PDT Dear reader, We are thrilled to announce EWI's first-ever Investor Open House! For one exciting week -- from noon Eastern time Thursday, Sept. 25, to noon Wednesday, Oct. 1 -- EWI has thrown open the doors to ALL of their investor services. And it's free. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Sep 2014 07:38 AM PDT GOLD PRICES fell below last week's closing level Friday lunchtime in London, erasing an earlier rally as the US Dollar resumed its strong rally of the last two months. Driving the Euro down to new 15-month lows, the Dollar rose after new data put US consumer confidence at the strongest level in more than a year. Wall Street rose, and European equities reversed earlier losses, while commodities erased a bounce to see Brent crude oil back below $97 per barrel for a 1.5% weekly slide. Gold prices fell below $1214 per ounce – the lowest Friday PM Fix since 20 December 2013. Silver prices missed the earlier bounce, holding flat before slipping to record their lowest Friday benchmark price in London since 26 March 2010 at $17.54 per ounce. At these prices, "We are seeing a strong pick up in physical interest," says one London dealing desk, "and I'm sure we are not the only ones. "[This] could provide some consolidation and possibly short covering into the next few weeks." "The markets are still running short," agrees London broker Marex Spectron, also looking at the size of bearish betting against gold and silver prices from speculative traders in Comex futures and options. "Upward blips will continue to happen as and when the Dollar pulls back." But while Standard Bank's commodity analysts "have little doubt that significant shorts have been building in gold and silver over the past few weeks...these shorts seem quite sticky." Short-covering rallies – driven by bearish traders closing their bets and helping push prices higher again – may "[be] met by even more selling...as evident from Wednesday's gold price, which tried to rally." Over in Shanghai, domestic gold prices closed the day 1% higher on strong volume but still fell for the week. The international free-trade zone's iAu9999 kilobar contract saw low trading, and the wholesale iAu995 contract – launched Thursday last week – recorded zero volume for the fifth session running. Here in London, US financial services group Citibank yesterday became a Market Making Member of the London Bullion Market Association, quoting buy and sell prices in spot gold and silver to its 11 peers throughout the trading day. Swiss investment bank and London market maker UBS today joined HSBC, Scotia Mocatta and Mitsui in contributing to the LBMA Silver Price – the new daily dealing and pricing process which replaced the century-old Silver Fix in August, and is set for legal UK oversight together with 7 other wholesale financial "benchmarks". | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold and Silver Bear Phase III Dead Ahead Posted: 26 Sep 2014 07:29 AM PDT This is part 1 of an essay by Plunger (Burt Coons). He is an extraordinary market historian and an associate with Rambus Chartology. The current decline in precious metals will not be complete until it passes through all three phases of a bear market. This is the conclusion I have mapped out in previous essays. The PM bear market began in 2011 and declined steadily until the Goldman raid of April 2013. At that point the bear reached its point of recognition (POR) and underwent double crashes in April and June. After these two crashes the bear has been undergoing a complex consolidation pattern for the past 18 months. It appears that this consolidation is now complete and the bear is setting up for its final phase. This of course is the loathed phase III decline described in a previous post. In the 1930's Robert Rhea described the three psychological phases of bull and bear markets. I have extended his work by using chartology to precisely assign price levels to these three phases. This is ground breaking work as it gives us a critical tool to assess where we are and what may remain in a bull or bear cycle. This tool identifies the critical flaw of the fervent gold bug who for three years has advocated "staying the course" which has resulted in lambs being led to slaughter. The previous essays can be reviewed here: Review Phases of a bear market and Phase III essays. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Sep 2014 06:01 AM PDT MUST READS The Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes – Bloomberg Hungary suspends gas supplies to Ukraine – BBC Ukraine prime minister says Russians ‘want us to freeze’ – Reuters After selloff, stock market in search of stability – USA Today Winners and losers from the dollar's recent rally – CNBC Alibaba options set for strong demand on market debut – Reuters The solution [...] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Six banks in UK talks over forex manipulation fines Posted: 26 Sep 2014 05:28 AM PDT By Caroline Binham LONDON -- Six banks have entered settlement discussions with the UK's main markets regulator over the alleged manipulation of foreign exchange in what could amount to record fines. Each of the banks -- Barclays, Citigroup, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, Royal Bank of Scotland, and UBS -- are facing fines in the hundreds of millions of pounds from the Financial Conduct Authority, according to people familiar with the situation. The settlement talks, which typically last eight weeks, are only with the FCA and do not include the United States or any other domestic regulator. ... ... For the remainder of the report: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3f60230a-4562-11e4-9b71-00144feabdc0.html ADVERTISEMENT Free Storage with BullionStar in Singapore Until 2016 BullionStar is a Singapore-registered company with a one-stop bullion shop, showroom, and vault at 45 New Bridge Road in Singapore. BullionStar's solution for storing bullion in Singapore is called My Vault Storage. With My Vault Storage you can store bullion in BullionStar's bullion vault, which is integrated with BullionStar's shop and showroom, making it a convenient one-stop-shop for precious metals in Singapore. Customers can buy, store, sell, or request physical withdrawal of their bullion through My Vault Storage® online around the clock. Storage is FREE until 2016 and will have the most competitive rates in the industry thereafter. For more information, please visit Bullion Star here: Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rising GDP "Boosts Consumer Demand" to Buy Gold Posted: 26 Sep 2014 01:39 AM PDT Consumers buy 5% more gold for every 1% rise in GDP, study shows... GOLD BUYING is boosted more by rising GDP and stronger consumer incomes than by financial crisis, according to a new study from a world-renowned economics professor. Defying the developed West's common belief that gold is only for bad times, the report confirms what market-development organization the World Gold Council calls "gold's positive duality: its ability to benefit from both the contraction and expansion phases of the business cycle." The econometric study comes from Avinash Persaud – emeritus professor at Gresham College, visiting fellow at CERF-Cambridge University, and governor of the London School of Economics – who was commissioned by the World Gold Council to study consumer versus investment gold buying both globally and in 11 key countries. Over the last five years, world demand to buy gold jewelry has accounted for 48% of annual purchases, and a further 10% has gone to electronic products such as PCs and smartphones. With central banks buying 7% on average, and despite the global financial crisis, gold investing has accounted for less than consumer demand – some 35% per year since 2009. "The new analysis," says the Council, presenting Professor Persaud's findings, "shows that a 1% increase in GDP lifted jewellery consumption by an average of 5%, all else equal." Because "gold jewellery is what economists refer to as a 'superior' good," says Persaud, "where demand increases proportionally more than income." The same 5:1 relationship applies to electronics demand compared to GDP growth, too. Although gold investment demand is "much smaller" than jewelry buying, however, "shifts in investment demand can be large and play a critical swing role in the market," Persaud cautions. Gold investment, agrees the World Gold Council's commentary, "can exert strong pressure on prices over the short (and potentially medium) term. "However, the longer-term trend is more closely linked to global consumption, savings and, at the same time, by the availability of supply."  India and China lead world demand to buy gold, accounting for one ounce in every two sold worldwide last year. Asian households' propensity to buy gold is far greater than Western consumers', the report says, because they "typically devote more money to savings" with a real average saving rate around 30% of income.  Even so, half of US gold buying "is [also] linked to consumers". US jewelry fabrication will rise 6% this year from 2013, according to leading consultants Thomson Reuters GFMS in the latest Update to their Gold Survey 2014. On the supply side, says GFMS, US scrap sales – which soared as prices rose during the financial crisis, enabled by companies like Cash4Gold – fell 17% in the first half of 2014 from a year ago. Such recycling flows from consumer worldwide fell 9% "as the need to raise funds by cashing in gold assets dwindled," the consultancy says, "due in large part to an improved US economy." "Given a strong price elasticity of demand in many countries," says Professor Persaud – pointing to Asia's huge move to buy gold on 2013's thirty per cent price drop – "a trebling in the gold price [from 2009-2014] should have led to an even greater decline in gold jewellery consumption, and if prices were to stay high, a permanent decline in consumption. "However, jewellery consumption is also highly sensitive (elastic) to rising income." In short, concludes the World Gold Council, "It seems reasonable to suggest that positive GDP growth will not necessarily be negative for the gold market." | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cheapest way to buy Royal Mint gold? Not from the Royal Mint Posted: 26 Sep 2014 12:14 AM PDT The Royal Mint has this week started selling investment coins such as sovereigns direct to the public. But you can buy the same gold for less - here's how  This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold, Silver, Fish Lines, and Rhino Horns Posted: 25 Sep 2014 11:00 PM PDT Jim Sinclair says to buy "fish lines" and sell "rhino horns." Stated another way – buy value when the price has plunged and sell when prices have gone parabolic. In today's world that... {This is a content summary only. Click on the blog title to continue reading this post, share your comments, browse the website, and more!} | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mr. Cohan Responds On His Silver Rigging Exposé - Two US National Publications Refused the Story Posted: 25 Sep 2014 04:02 PM PDT Le Cafe Américain |
The U.S. economy has had six full years to bounce back since the financial collapse of 2008, and it simply has not happened. Median household income has declined substantially since then, total household wealth for middle class families is way down, the percentage of the population that is employed is still about where it was at the end of the last recession, and the number of Americans that are dependent on the government has absolutely exploded. Even those that claim that the economy is “recovering” admit that we are not even close to where we used to be economically. Many hope that someday we will eventually get back to that level, but the truth is that this is about as good as things are ever going to get for the middle class. And we should enjoy this period of relative stability while we still can, because when the next great financial crisis strikes things are going to fall apart very rapidly.
We like to think of the solutions we provide here at Sovereign Man as seatbelts—common sense tools you might never need it, but could save your life in a real emergency. If you live, work, bank, own property, invest, structure a business, store gold, etc. all in the same country of your citizenship, you're at mercy of the political climate of one single jurisdiction. This is a lot of faith to place in one country… especially if that country is on a downward slide of debt, money printing, and erosion of freedom.
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