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- The Black Mass and Our Future Feral Society
- LBMA Plans New Gold Fix – Desperate Attempt To Maintain Status Quo
- Dubai Cityscape show half the size of 2008 as rents and house prices fall
- Silver Slaughter- Are We Headed to $15?
- Gold price suppression: History of The "London Gold Pool”
- The Alibaba IPO May Shine, But Gold is Glistening
- Gold still shows weak technical picture - Phillips
- Silver’s ETF Demand Outpaces Gold By the Most Ever
- Doug Noland: Only for wonks
- Three King World News Blogs
- Lawrence Williams: The future for gold is physical
- Julian Phillips: Of course gold is manipulated -- the London Gold Pool, 1961-68
- What are your questions for former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in New Orleans?
- Silver’s ETF Demand Outpaces Gold by Most Ever
- Gold And Silver: Current Price Is The Story
- Strong dollar and futures expiry day hit commodity prices
- Silver Slaughter- Are We Headed to $15?
- PM Fund Manager on Worst PM Manipulation in 14 Years: Something Ominous This Way Comes
- Speculators Remain Net Long as Gold Drops Lower
- sept 19/huge fall in silver and another $10 dollars in gold/open interest rises huge in silver/GLD losses 7.78 tonnes of gold to Shanghai.
- Legendary Gold Trader: Today is a Day That Should be Memorized
- Armageddon
- Silver: Support at 18.27/18.19, resistance at 18.60/18.87
- Gold And Silver Price Drop To Critical Fibonacci Levels
- Gold Near Bottom of Range or About to Break Down?
- Why I Believe Gold & Silver have been Massacred Since 2011
- Gold And Silver Price Drop To Critical Fibonacci Levels
- June 2013 Lows Break As Silver Plunges to $17 Handle
- The Alibaba IPO may shine, but gold is glistening
- Malaysian government gives jewelers reprieve on tax
| The Black Mass and Our Future Feral Society Posted: 20 Sep 2014 09:59 AM PDT
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| LBMA Plans New Gold Fix – Desperate Attempt To Maintain Status Quo Posted: 20 Sep 2014 08:43 AM PDT LBMA Plans New Gold Fix – Desperate Attempt To Maintain Status Quo
In other LBMA related news, Reuters reported today that there are at least 15 companies interested in running the upcoming replacement to the London 'Gold Fixing' auction. Like the recently introduced replacement to the 'Silver Fixing' which is now being run by the CME Group and Thomson Reuters, the LBMA has appointed itself as the coordinator for a new London Gold Price auction and is currently soliciting Requests for Proposals (RfPs) from interested parties. When the new silver fixing auction was being debated in the summer, the World Gold Council (WGC) took the initiative and organised a conference of gold market participants including miners and refiners to work out the key features of a new gold price auction. This WGC initiative appears to have been shot down by the LBMA who felt threatened that a gold mining representative organisation was muscling in on the London gold 'price discovery' mechanism. In advance of the LBMA choosing the winning bid, which may well be CME Group/Thomson Reuters again, the LBMA will be holding another seminar for 'market participants' that will feature presentations from the short-listed candidates. As per a similar LBMA Silver Price seminar that was held in June, the upcoming LBMA gold price seminar will no doubt include various concerned regulators attending as 'observers' such as the Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), as well as the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA). ISDA will be concerned about how 'price discovery' in the new LBMA Gold Price auction will impact the huge outstanding pile of gold price related derivatives that ISDA coordinates. Since gold is a monetary metal and is strategic as the basis of all fiat currencies, the Bank of England will no doubt be sending senior representatives to the seminar to protect the Bank's interests. And since trade 'clearing' of the phenomenally large volume of loco London unallocated account gold fixing trades is so important for the six bullion bank members of London Precious Metals Clearing Limited, it will be a given that HSBC, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, ScotiaMocatta and UBS will attend the LBMA seminar in an attempt to preserve the City of London's unallocated account clearing status quo.
LBMA Gold and Silver Forward Curves Withdrawn From Next Monday (22nd September 2014) Therefore, today is the last business day that this long dated forward pricing data will be supplied by the LBMA. Forward trades are over the counter trades where the two participants agree to buy/sell gold or silver now and sell/buy it back at a later date, usually with one leg of the trade being gold or silver and the other leg being US dollars. Since the LME will no longer have this data, they cannot price forward trades and so cannot provide a clearing service for London gold forwards since they will not have pricing data to 'mark to market' any outstanding gold forwards for their clients. This forward curve data had been supplied by the eight LBMA forward market makers since 2009, and then by seven market makers after Deutsche Bank dropped out earlier this year. The CME Group also provides a clearing service for gold forwards and it is unclear how the cessation of the pricing data to the LME might affect the CME's service. The CME Group was recently appointed by the LBMA to be the calculation agent and platform provider for the new LBMA Silver Price. Shorter term gold forward data, in the form of Gold Forward Offered rates (GOFO) will continue to be supplied by the forward market makers and published by the LBMA. Therefore, the gold/silver forwards decision by the LBMA and its associated Market Makers will not affect (GOFO) data. GOFO data will still, for the time being, be published in London each business day at 11am. View GoldCore's Latest Webinar Here: How to Buy Bullion Today and When To Sell
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| Dubai Cityscape show half the size of 2008 as rents and house prices fall Posted: 20 Sep 2014 08:38 AM PDT This year’s Dubai Cityscape property show is the largest since the real estate crash of 2009 but will still be only half the size of the last bubble year of 2008. Life has got a lot better but not that good. The show is actually taking place as the correction that the ArabianMoney newsletter (subscribe here) first predicted to its paying subscribers back in the Spring starts to be felt in the emirate, with estate agent CBRE reporting rental falls of around three per cent in Downtown Dubai and the International Media Production Zone. Sales down House sales are also in trouble with volumes slowing though sellers are reluctant to lower their prices. The whisper-on-the-street is that the real estate boom has stalled and prices are dropping. Still that has to be seen in the context of arguably the world’s best real estate market recovery over the past two years. House prices have risen by an average of 56 per cent since August 2012, while rents are up 41 per cent in that time, according to international property agents JLL. Rival global agency Savills seems to have completely missed the boat with its new local alliance only announced last week. Why should Dubai property go through a correction now? Well it is three years from the signing off of the $25 billion Dubai World debt rescheduling that triggered the recovery and that is the length of a typical real estate cycle in most cities. Secondly, the global interest rate cycle is generally considered to be changing for the worse. Thirdly, the flow of money from countries affected by the Arab Spring is dwindling and other key markets for buyers like Russia are struggling with the 35 per cent devaluation of the dirham against the ruble. US dollar too strong Indeed, the strong US dollar, to which the UAE dirham is pegged, is probably enemy number one for inward investment this season, whether that be from Europe, the UK, Australia or Russia. Given that the breakdown of buyers in the UAE is overwhelmingly foreign this matters a lot. So the impressive take up of space in Cityscape this autumn probably reflects a boom that is over rather than one that still has some life left in it. Not that Dubai will fail to enjoy another up cycle in the future. Cheaper prices now will be a lifetime buying opportunity for long term residents. |
| Silver Slaughter- Are We Headed to $15? Posted: 20 Sep 2014 07:20 AM PDT
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| Gold price suppression: History of The "London Gold Pool” Posted: 20 Sep 2014 04:22 AM PDT Gold price suppression, much denied by the mainstream, has been part of U.S. policy ever since the setting up of the London Gold Pool in the 1960s |
| The Alibaba IPO May Shine, But Gold is Glistening Posted: 20 Sep 2014 02:20 AM PDT GoldandOilGuy |
| Gold still shows weak technical picture - Phillips Posted: 20 Sep 2014 01:43 AM PDT Julian Phillips of the Gold Forecaster suggests the price of gold looks soft on the charts, but also argues other factors will eventually come to boost it. |
| Silver’s ETF Demand Outpaces Gold By the Most Ever Posted: 20 Sep 2014 01:16 AM PDT "It was another unhappy day for precious metal enthusiasts" ¤ Yesterday In Gold & SilverThe gold price chopped around unchanged in a very right range during all of Far East and most of London trading on Friday---and that state of affairs lasted until just minutes before 9 a.m. EDT. At that point the selling pressure began anew---and JPMorgan et al had the gold price down to a new low by around 1:35 p.m. EDT, just a few minutes after the close of Comex trading. After that, the price rallied a few dollars into the close. The high and low ticks were recorded by the CME Group as $1,229.20 and $1,214.20 in the December contract. Gold finished the Friday session in New York at $1,216.20 spot, down $8.60 from Thursday's close. Net volume was very decent at 167,000 contracts. Brad Robertson sent us the 5-minute tick gold chart once again---and you can see the big volume spike that occurred at 10:45 a.m. in New York, which shows as 8:45 a.m.MDT on this chart. The big volume spike was on the secondary low, not the absolute low. After the obligatory down tick at the 6 p.m. open in New York on Thursday evening, the silver price never got a sniff of positive territory after that---and followed almost an identical path to gold except for the fact that the HFT boyz and their algorithms really put the boots to the technical funds, as they closed silver just off its low tick of the day. The high and low were recorded as $18.595 and $17.78 in the December contract. Silver closed in New York yesterday at $17.79 spot, down a whopping 73 cents from Thursday's close. Net volume was very heavy at 64,000 contracts. Platinum was up a few bucks by noon in Hong Kong trading, but that was its high---and it slowly got sold down, hitting its low about 12:45 p.m. EDT---and about 45 minutes after the Zurich close. The boyz close platinum down 9 bucks. Palladium's high was also at noon in Hong Kong---and the decline in price from there was very orderly until around 10:20 a.m. EDT. The HFT boyz and their algorithms showed up---and that was that, as they hit palladium for another 18 bucks. The dollar index closed late on Thursday afternoon in New York at 84.29---and then traded flat until a few minutes after 12 o'clock noon Hong Kong time---and then away it went to the upside once again. By the close of trading, the index had gained 49 basis point, everything it lost on Thursday, and closed at 84.78. The gold stocks opened down a bit---and continued lower, hitting their low tick a few minutes before 2 p.m. EDT, which more or less coincided with the low tick in gold. The HUI closed down another 1.69%. The silver equities also opened down a hair, but hung in there until around 10:15 a.m. before heading lower with a vengeance---and there was no recovery at all, as they close on their absolute low tick. Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index closed down another 3.32%. The silver stocks have now given back all of their gains for 2014. The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 5 gold and 149 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday. The biggest short/issuer was Jefferies with 147 contracts---and there were about a dozen long/stoppers---and you can take a look at yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report linked here, if you wish to see the list. The CME Preliminary Report for the Friday trading session showed that 24 gold and 403 silver contracts are still open in the September contract---and don't forget to subtract the figures in the previous paragraph to get the up-to-date number. There was a withdrawal from GLD yesterday. This time it was 250,032 troy ounces---8 metric tonnes of the stuff. And as of 1:18 a.m. EDT this morning, there were no reported changes in SLV. The U.S. Mint had a sales report. They sold 2,000 troy ounces of gold eagles---500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes---and 100,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 39,500 troy ounces of gold eagles---8,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes---1,760,000 silver eagles---and 400 platinum eagles. Based on these sales numbers, the silver/gold ratio for the month stands at 37 to 1. There was a very decent amount of gold shipped out of the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday---160,755 troy ounces to be exact---with virtually all of it coming out of Canada's Scotiabank. Nothing was reported received---and the link to that activity is here. In silver, it was almost the same thing, as 282,291 troy ounces were shipped out---and with the exception of a few thousand ounces, it came out of Scotiabank as well. Nothing was reported received there, either---and the link to that activity is here. Here's a very sad looking 5-year silver chart---and what it shows is that the closing price on Friday was the lowest in four year---and it takes us all the way back to the beginning of the runaway bull market in silver in September of 2010. All the gains in the interim have vanished thanks to JPMorgan et al. The Commitment of Traders Report, for positions held at the close of Comex trading on Tuesday, was pretty much in line with the expectations that both Ted Butler and I had. The Commercial net short position in silver fell by 6,394 contracts, or 32.0 million troy ounces. The Commercial net short position is now down to 117.8 million troy ounces, which is still shy of its low back in late May/early June. The managed money long selling/short buying accounted for 5,925 contracts of the decline during the reporting week. Ted pegs JPMorgan's short-side corner in the Comex gold market at 13,000 contracts, down a thousand from the prior week's report. The Commercial net short position in gold dropped by 21,712 contracts or 2.17 million ounces---and the new and improved Commercial net short position now stands at 7.62 million troy ounces. The Managed Money in the technical fund category accounted for 19,912 contracts of the total amount. As Ted Butler says, it's the Commercial traders running the Managed Money up and down through the moving averages that is determining the price, which they do for fun, profit---and price management purposes. Supply and demand fundamentals no longer matter. Ted says that JPMorgan's long-side corner in the Comex gold market was unchanged at 25,000 contracts, or 2.5 million ounces, compared to the prior week's report. And, without doubt, there has been massive improvement since the Tuesday cut-off. Of course we'll have to wait until next Friday's report before we see how much it was. Here's Nick Laird's "Day of World Production to Cover Comex Short Positions" of the 4 and 8 largest traders in all physical commodities traded on the Comex. Three of the four precious metals are still permanently pinned to the right-hand side of this chart---and gold would be there as well, except for JPMorgan's long-side corner in that metal. Since the 20th of the month fell on a weekend, the good folks over at The Central Bank of the Russian Federation updated their website with August's data yesterday. It showed that they increased their physical gold reserves by another 300,000 troy ounces during that period---and they now hold 35.8 million troy ounces in their reserves. Here's Nick's most excellent chart showing that change. Despite my best efforts, I have a decent number of stories for you today. ¤ Critical Reads Marc Faber: There's a bubble in everything---everywhere!Even after the Dow and the S&P 500 closed at new all-time highs, closely followed contrarian Marc Faber keeps sounding the alarm. "We have a bubble in everything, everywhere," the publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday. Faber has long argued that the Federal Reserve's massive asset purchasing programs and near-zero interest rates have inflated stock prices. The catalyst for a market decline, as he sees it, could be a "raise in interest rates, not engineered by the Fed," referring an increase in bond yield There are two short interviews back to back here, both totaling a bit over 4 minutes---and they run concurrently. The first reader through the door with this CNBC video clip yesterday, was Ken Hurt.  Household Net Worth Hits Record $81.5 Trillion In Q2 Driven By Stock Market Surge[Early Thursday], the Fed released its latest Z.1 (Flow of Funds report) for the second quarter, there were no surprises: thanks to the relentless liquidity injections by global central banks (charted here) resulting in record stock market levels, total household net worth rose once more, increasing by $1.4 billion in the quarter (up from a downward revised $1.2 billion in the previous quarter) to a new record high $81.5 billion. This was the result of a $95.4 trillion in total assets, offset by $13.9 trillion in liabilities, mostly mortgage debt of $9.4 trillion, as well as some $3.2 trillion in consumer credit, which may or may not account entirely for the student debt bubble. But perhaps most importantly, the percentage of financial assets as a percentage of total, just rose to the record high level it has never in the past surpassed: 70.3%. As the chart below shows, this is the highest proportion that financial assets have ever hit in the entire history of modern US society. Every time financial assets hit 70.3% of total, either housing values finally pick up and offset the disproportional increase in financial assets, or there has been a crash in financial asset values themselves. This article, with some excellent charts, appeared on the Zero Hedge website at 1:46 p.m. EDT on Thursday---and it's the first of two stories in a row that I found in yesterday's King Report.  Doug Noland: Only for wonksOf late, talk has been that the ECB’s balance sheet would come to the rescue. Count me as deeply skeptical of all the bullish ECB “QE” liquidity propaganda. As such, I see a world of somewhat waning liquidity abundance with an increasingly destabilizing King Dollar bias. There’s risk that escalating EM stress and attendant “hot money” outflows lead to a self-reinforcing de-risking/de-leveraging dynamic. EM companies and countries at this point have way too much dollar-denominated debt. At some point, contagion might negatively impact market expectations for the global economy at large, perhaps leading to a more generalized global “risk off” backdrop. From the Z.1 we know that Security Credit was up $161bn year-over-year, or 13.7%, to a record $1.333 TN. Fed Funds and Repurchase Agreements were little changed y-o-y at $3.792 TN. Security Broker/Dealer Assets were actually down about 5% y-o-y to $3.388 TN. Funding Corps were down 3.3% y-o-y to $1.312 TN. Clearly, securities leveraging remains integral to overall Credit system operations. At the same time, there are important sources of global leverage outside the purview of Fed monitoring and Z.1 reporting. There are myriad avenues for “carry trades,” securities shorting and “off-shore” securities financing vehicles, not to mention the murky world of (hundreds of Trillions of) derivatives. Doug's commentary was posted on the prudentbear.com Internet site on Friday evening---and it's a must read that I'll deal with later today. I thank reader U.D. for sending it along. The Scotland Referendum: Who Voted How And Why?The following post-referendum poll from Lord Ashcroft does a good summary of who voted how and why. However, the most telling distinction is the following:
How will last night's vote look like in 5, 10 or 15 years when today's 17 year olds are Scotland's prime demographic? This short Zero Hedge article has an excellent set of numbers---and it's worth a minute of your time. I thank reader U.D. for sharing it with us. There was a story about this subject as well posted on the euobserver.com Internet site yesterday. It's headlined "Scotland's referendum - nothing and everything changes". My thanks go out to Roy Stephens for that one.  Spain, Italy, Belgium: Battle lines drawn for independence after Scottish voteThe Scots have lost their stab at independence by a tiny 10-percent margin. Analysts predicted that only a ‘yes’ vote would send waves throughout Europe, but the dire economic situation of other independence-seeking regions can’t be eclipsed so easily. In a historic referendum on Thursday, Scotland voted 55 to 45 percent to stay in the four-nation United Kingdom. This 'yes' vote, many have said, would become a major precedent for others to follow - but can this apparent loss by an already prosperous Scotland serve as a demotivator for others? After all, according to the Venetians, or the Catalans, the far more centralized nature of their own main governments - just one factor to consider here - puts them in a markedly different situation to that of Scotland. This article appeared on the Russia Today website at 9:47 a.m. Moscow time on their Friday morning, which was 1:47 a.m. EDT---and it's courtesy of Roy Stephens.  Catalonia to press ahead with referendum after Scottish NoCatalan leader Artur Mas has said the Scottish referendum has reinforced his plan to hold a similar vote at home. Speaking in Barcelona on Friday (19 September), he noted that the devolved Catalan parliament is likely to pass a law on the referendum later the same day. “I will sign the decree on this consultation in Catalonia. In fact, I will call this consultation on 9 November as agreed some months ago with the majority of Catalan political forces”. He said he would have preferred it if Scotland had voted Yes. This news item showed up on the euobserver.com Internet site at 4:06 p.m. Europe time yesterday---and it's the second story in a row from Roy Stephens.  Europe's Banks Show Tepid Interest as E.C.B. Begins Program of Cheap LoansBanks borrowed less than expected from the European Central Bank in a disappointing start for a program intended to encourage more lending to businesses and households and to pump money into the ailing eurozone economy. The central bank said on Thursday that it would allot nearly 83 billion euros, or about $107 billion, to 255 commercial banks next week. Estimates of how much money banks would borrow had varied widely, but many analysts said before the announcement that anything less than €100 billion would be a disappointment. The program is part of a broader effort by the central bank to inject as much as €1 trillion into the eurozone economy, and the borrowing data on Thursday was closely watched as an indicator of whether the central bank would be able to meet its goal. The loans are meant to drive down the cost of borrowing and encourage lending, especially in countries like Italy and Portugal, where a lack of credit has impeded economic growth. This article appeared on The New York Times website on Thursday sometime---and it's something I found in yesterday's edition of the King Report. CIA puts on hold all spying operations in Western EuropeThe CIA’s European Division has halted its operations in Western Europe in response to several spying scandals in Germany and the continent’s negative reaction to the revelations of spying by the National Security Agency on European leaders and citizens. The stand-down order has been in effect for two months. It was designed to give CIA officers time to examine whether they were being careful enough and to evaluate whether spying on allies is worth running the risk of discovery, a U.S. official who has been briefed on the situation told the Associated Press. Case officers in friendly European countries have largely forbidden from undertaking "unilateral operations" such as meeting with sources they have recruited within allied governments. The continent’s countries have long been used as safe venues to conduct meetings between CIA officers and sources from the Middle East and other high priority areas; those encounters have been rerouted to other locales. The spying stand-down comes at an inopportune time, AP reported, citing worries over Western extremists heading to Syria and Iraq to join with the Islamic State, as well as the stando |
| Posted: 20 Sep 2014 01:16 AM PDT Doug Noland: Only for wonks Of late, talk has been that the ECB’s balance sheet would come to the rescue. Count me as deeply skeptical of all the bullish ECB “QE” liquidity propaganda. As such, I see a world of somewhat waning liquidity abundance with an increasingly destabilizing King Dollar bias. There’s risk that escalating EM stress and attendant “hot money” outflows lead to a self-reinforcing de-risking/de-leveraging dynamic. EM companies and countries at this point have way too much dollar-denominated debt. At some point, contagion might negatively impact market expectations for the global economy at large, perhaps leading to a more generalized global “risk off” backdrop. From the Z.1 we know that Security Credit was up $161bn year-over-year, or 13.7%, to a record $1.333 TN. Fed Funds and Repurchase Agreements were little changed y-o-y at $3.792 TN. Security Broker/Dealer Assets were actually down about 5% y-o-y to $3.388 TN. Funding Corps were down 3.3% y-o-y to $1.312 TN. Clearly, securities leveraging remains integral to overall Credit system operations. At the same time, there are important sources of global leverage outside the purview of Fed monitoring and Z.1 reporting. There are myriad avenues for “carry trades,” securities shorting and “off-shore” securities financing vehicles, not to mention the murky world of (hundreds of Trillions of) derivatives. Doug's commentary was posted on the prudentbear.com Internet site on Friday evening---and it's a must read that I'll deal with later today. I thank reader U.D. for sending it along. |
| Posted: 20 Sep 2014 01:16 AM PDT  Three King World News Blogs 1. Art Cashin: "The Next 7 Days May Trigger a Global Stock Market Crash" 2. Bill Fleckenstein: "Responds to Outrageous CNBC Interview" 3. John Ing: "Russians Stunned as Chinese Leader Pushed Gold Backed Yuan" [Please direct any questions or comments about what is said in these interviews by either Eric King or his guests to them, and not to me. Thank you. - Ed] |
| Lawrence Williams: The future for gold is physical Posted: 20 Sep 2014 01:16 AM PDT  Lawrence Williams: The future for gold is physical At an event [on Thursday] to mark the start of Shanghai Gold Exchange’s gold trading in the city’s free-trade zone (SFTZ) and the creation of the International Board, the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the World Gold Council have stated they will be actively cooperating to develop the SFTZ as an international hub for gold and to work together to develop the gold market in the region. The event was attended by Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Mr. Xu Luode, the Chairman of Shanghai Gold Exchange and Aram Shishmanian, CEO of the World Gold Council. This collaboration follows on from a partnership signed between the China Gold Association and the World Gold Council in Beijing last week at the China Gold Congress and Expo, which they jointly sponsored. This partnership seeks to promote further international enterprise in China and to enhance the global understanding of China’s role within the global supply chain. As we commented on the report concerning WGC and PBoC co-operation, one hopes these co-operations are close and will thus help lift the veil on some of the statistical anomalies that beset analytical reports on the massive Chinese gold sector. This commentary by Lawrie was posted on the mineweb.com Internet site on Thursday---and is worth reading. |
| Julian Phillips: Of course gold is manipulated -- the London Gold Pool, 1961-68 Posted: 20 Sep 2014 01:16 AM PDT  Julian Phillips: Of course gold is manipulated -- the London Gold Pool, 1961-68 In his latest commentary about gold market manipulation, Julian Phillips of the Gold Forecaster letter reviews the establishment of the London Gold Pool, the gold market-rigging mechanism of the Western central banks in the 1960s. The U.S. dollar survived the gold pool's collapse, Phillips writes, because the dollar was still required to purchase oil from the Middle East. I found this gold-related story embedded in a GATA release yesterday---and I thank Chris Powell for writing the above paragraph of introduction. |
| What are your questions for former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in New Orleans? Posted: 20 Sep 2014 01:16 AM PDT  What are your questions for former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in New Orleans? GATA again will have a big part in the New Orleans Investment Conference this year, what with GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and your secretary/treasurer making presentations, your secretary/treasurer debating Casey Research founder Doug Casey about whether the gold market is manipulated, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan not only speaking but taking questions from the audience. Conference sponsor Brien Lundin of Gold Newsletter and the Jefferson Companies in Louisiana is asking for help in devising questions for Greenspan, and GATA has appended his appeal. This GATA release from yesterday is worth your time, if you have any left, that is. |
| Silver’s ETF Demand Outpaces Gold by Most Ever Posted: 20 Sep 2014 01:16 AM PDT  Silver's ETF Demand Outpaces Gold by Most Ever Investors in exchange-traded funds backed by silver have stayed loyal to the metal longer than those who bought gold. The CHART OF THE DAY shows shares outstanding for the biggest U.S. silver ETF surpassing those for the nation’s largest gold fund by the most since 2006, when the iShares Silver Trust was created. Retail buyers are sticking with silver even as prices fell 4.4 percent this year, the most of any precious metal. Gold’s 2 percent gain wasn’t enough to halt declines in selling, and assets in the SPDR Gold Trust are set for a second annual loss. “The perception is that silver will do well, and should outperform gold as the economic recovery strengthens,” Tom Kendall, the head of commodities research at Credit Suisse in London, said in a telephone interview. “Belief in silver’s dual properties, as a financial asset and also as an industrial metal, appears to remain strong.” Well, dear reader, there's nothing in here that you don't already know, as Ted Butler and I have been talking about this for several months already. The reasons given for why silver is pouring into SLV is mostly bulls hit, but it's nice to see that at least one news outlet has considered it worth featuring. This silver-related article was posted on the Bloomberg website at 5 p.m. MDT on Thursday---and I thank Elliot Simon for bringing it to our attention. |
| Gold And Silver: Current Price Is The Story Posted: 20 Sep 2014 12:56 AM PDT Forget all the news, all the fundamentals, all the [mostly errant] price projections. There is a reason why a picture is worth more than 1,000 words, and this is one of those times where it is best to focus on pictures of the market, over various time frames, to get a better handle on what to expect moving forward. Put to rest every so-called PMs pundit or blogger that has persistently been calling for higher prices or saying the low is in. We keep saying that the best and most reliable indicators come from the market. Time to stop listening about what others have been saying about the market and pay closer attention to what the market is saying about others. Several months ago, we expressed the thought that 2014 would likely be more like 2013 and to not expect a dramatic increase in gold and silver prices. Even that was optimistic as silver just reached recent 4 year lows. Are the markets manipulated? Absolutely! The United States and United Kingdom are both in the throes of desperation to keep alive the largest ever Ponzi scheme, that of Western central banks run by the unelected bureaucrats of the Bank for International Settlements [BIS], and all of the similarly unelected bureaucrats from the International Monetary Fund [IMF], who rule over all Western governments. Gold, and silver to a much lesser extent, are the proverbial wooden stake to be driven into the heart of the fiat system which rules over your life, realize it or not, like it or not. Have these unseen faces been successful in suppressing PM prices? Without question. Can it continue? Without question, but the increasingly pertinent question now is, for how much longer? No one has the answer, which has been proven despite the never- ending opinions asserted over the past few years. With each passing month it becomes sooner rather than later, but even sooner is taking longer than most have expected. A look at the charts tells us in no uncertain terms that the end is not yet in sight. Here is our read of what the market is saying, and has been saying for some time. We start with silver because it just broke to low levels not seen for the past 4 years. The importance of acknowledging the trend deserves front and center attention because this simple circumstance is so often overlooked for its power to prevail over price direction. Bearish spacing is also mentioned because of what it connotes: a bearish undertone in the market. With successive lower swing highs, the message of both the trend and bearish spacing have gone unchallenged, and that means there is no way the down trend can end. The KISS principle at work. Even in a down market, past support still has validity to check, at least temporarily, any downward momentum. It does not mean a turn in trend is imminent, so one should not read sentiment into market reality, rather, just be aware and pay closer attention to how price develops/reacts around this possible support area. The weekly chart is context, and we look at the daily chart for more clarity, if any is to be found.
There are no definitive signs of trend change. None. We can see that silver has reached an oversold market condition. That being said, it can never be forgotten that oversold can easily become more oversold, so this current condition is no reason to take a position from the long side in anticipation of an upside reaction. Ask yourself a simple question. Over the past 4 years, how many longs are showing a profit? Counting on just one hand may provide an adequate answer. Is that the kind of position in which you want to find yourself? This is why the trend is your friend.
Trust us, a 60 minute chart is not going to overrule to strength of a weekly chart. What we want to see here is how the market looks in the aftermath of last week's decline. The picture tells an interesting story not seen on the weekly or even the daily chart. What you have to understand is the role volume plays in any market. It is akin to the energy, or the lack of energy behind any market move. When you see sharp volume increases, pay close attention for it is usually smart money making a move, preferably without being detected. Knowing how to read volume activity, an art more than not, the intent of the market movers becomes more apparent. We are all like minnows that can buy and sell without any impact on the market. Smart money has substantial position size that must be moved over a period of days, sometimes weeks so as to not impact the market and show their hand. The first line, marked "1″ at the bottom of the chart, shows the average volume turnover on any given day. The second line, "2," shows notable volume pick-up and should be viewed more closely because the large market movers are doing something without trying to tip their hand. Then, there are the exceptional spike volume standout days, such as what occurred last Friday as silver descended to 4 year lows. Anytime there is such an extreme, count on it being a change from weak hands into strong hands. Here, weak-handed sellers and stops are being triggered, and it is strong hands that are buying, strong hands that generate the exceptionally high volume. The public does not have the ability to independently create such strong volume, rather, the public reacts to it, almost always to its detriment. What the intra day market activity from last Friday does is create a need to focus very closely on HOW the market develops over the next several days. Notice has been served that something important just occurred. When silver activity is viewed along with what transpired in gold, at the same time, the potential for change becomes a higher probability, but one that must still be confirmed. The market is "speaking" for those willing to pay attention.
The standout difference between weekly gold and silver is that gold has not made a new recent low. In fact, gold did not even reach the TR support [Trading Range]. Is the market "speaking" here? Yes. In fact, it does all the time, the trend being its most important message for it tells everyone that the market momentum will persist in one direction for some undetermined length of time. The market message we see is more at hand, and it is shown by the smaller TR from last week, compared to the two preceding weeks as the market has declined. The smaller range tells us that the downward momentum was stopped, to a degree, at a point in time where sellers have clearly been in control. The fact that buyers prevented sellers from moving price lower than occurred does not mean the trend is changing, but it is a piece of information, just like in a jigsaw puzzle where one piece may not mean anything special, but when combined with a few other pieces interconnecting, a part of the puzzle become clearer. A look at the daily chart may provide additional insight.
Within the same down channel as silver, gold did not even reach its lower support channel line, and that is a tribute to buyers for preventing sellers from exerting more influence with momentum on their side. We discussed how last week's smaller range might be an important message, and the daily activity shows why. Focus on the last 3 bars, all with red volume because each close was lower than the day preceding. The 3rd bar from the end was the widest range and lowest volume, and it tells us the there was Ease of Downward Movement [EDM], but the close was in the upper 3rd of the range, buyers winning the battle over sellers that day. On the 2d bar from the right, volume increased, the bar range was smaller, and the close was near the high of the day, again, buyers are showing up and controlling sellers. Friday's bar is the most interesting. Volume was second highest of the month. Increases in volume are usually attributable to smart money intervening, [which may account for why the prior two bars had higher closes; smart money trying to disguise their buying activity]. The question to be asked is, why did smart money increase the effort, via increased volume when price was at the low? It is not because they were selling into a hole, but more likely scooping up all the offerings from sellers and stops being triggered by the lower prices. Reading volume is an art form, and one can sometimes, even often, be wrong. Maybe the intra day chart can add to the interpretation?
Indeed it does. The chart comments explain the set-up. Comparing the activity, [volume effort and extent of resulting price movement] between Wednesday and Friday confirms what was surmised on the daily chart read. Pay attention to these two days and what they mean for you will see this kind of activity repeat itself over and over in all markets and over all time frames. Frankly, most people do not know how to read charts, and that is why they offer opinions about what they think is happening instead of what the market is actually saying. The volume effort from Friday is clearly higher than the volume effort from Wednesday, yet the EDM was much greater on Wednesday than it was on Friday. Here, you can see readily that strong hands were very active buyers on Friday, taking everything sellers had to offer, as well as all sell stops. Will this mean a change in trend? No, but it could be an important step that leads to a change, if we see evidence that buyers are persistently putting in a greater effort than sellers. We need to be patient and wait for confirmation. Actually, there is no other choice. Those too impatient to wait for more confirmation are the ones who were more than likely selling out their longs on Wednesday and Friday from higher prices. What does this mean for holders of the physical? More buying opportunities. What about those who bought at higher levels and have seen a "loss in value?" Ask yourself this question? Are you going to sell any of your holdings at these low levels? If no, then do not be bothered about where price is, unless you are buying more. One has not "lost" anything unless one sells. You have the best form of wealth preservation insurance for what is inevitable, and 5,000 years of history is on your side. We have purchases of silver when priced at 47, and gold at 1,800. Is there any concern over having paid much higher prices? Not in the least. The reason for buying has not changed, and there was more buying of silver on Friday when price was just under 18. We practice what we preach. It is wrong to focus on what one paid over the past few years as price peaked. It is necessary to look at the broader time frame. Those who have been buying silver since $4 and gold since $300 continue to do well. Keep in mind, a quarter made of 90% silver still buys a gallon of gas at today's prices. When the price of PMs one day jumps a few hundred percentages overnight, as is likely to happen, those who paid top dollar for either metal will be overjoyed at their smart decision-making, although that is not currently how they feel. The preference is for silver over gold, at this point where the ratio is around 68:1. In fact, in line with the previous article, Use Magic Of Gold/Silver Ratio, we are starting to look at switching some gold into silver. As a reminder, assume you exchange 10 oz of gold at 65:1, getting you 650 oz of silver. At some point in the future, the ratio may go under 35:1 or 30:1, and you switch back 650 oz of silver to gold at 40:1. You will then have 16 oz of gold, 60% more than previously held, all without risk, just by "playing the ratio." Steady the course PM holders. Add whenever possible.
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| Strong dollar and futures expiry day hit commodity prices Posted: 19 Sep 2014 11:07 PM PDT The strong dollar and a so-called quadruple witching day for the expiration of futures contracts hit commodity prices hard on Friday with silver suffering its worst fall this year. CNBC’s Jackie DeAngelis discusses the day’s activity in the commodities markets and looks ahead at where oil and precious metals are likely headed next week… |
| Silver Slaughter- Are We Headed to $15? Posted: 19 Sep 2014 10:18 PM PDT With silver smashed to a new bear low breaking long term support at $18/oz Friday, Alasdair Macleod joined the show to break down the trading action in precious metals, discussing: Friday’s silver slaughter- is the bottom finally in, or are we looking at a silver bloodbath on the Globex open Sunday night and a drop […] The post Silver Slaughter- Are We Headed to $15? appeared first on Silver Doctors. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| PM Fund Manager on Worst PM Manipulation in 14 Years: Something Ominous This Way Comes Posted: 19 Sep 2014 05:45 PM PDT The precious metals have been under the most intense and concentrated period of downward price manipulation by the Federal Reserve/U.S. Government that has occurred over the last 14 years, except for the summer/early fall 2008. Something really bad is occurring behind the scenes with our economic and financial system that is not yet obvious. But […] The post PM Fund Manager on Worst PM Manipulation in 14 Years: Something Ominous This Way Comes appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Speculators Remain Net Long as Gold Drops Lower Posted: 19 Sep 2014 05:28 PM PDT I picked the headline because I wanted to add the following: "And are losing money". I am attaching two charts to this short post. The first is the overall COT positions from today's report.  Take a look at the lines reflecting the positions of the various groups of speculators. Note that all three groups, the Hedge Funds, the Other Large Reportables and the Small Specs or general public, all remain NET LONG in gold. And guess what - they are all losing money. Also, what concerns me is that based on this Friday's report, there are still more than a considerable amount of these losing positions left to unwind. As of the close of trading business on Tuesday ( the day through which the weekly report covers ) the price of gold was $1236.70. As of the close today, it was $1216.60 or another $20 lower. There is no doubt that the breach of downside chart support levels has taken out more of these spec longs, but the question is how much pain can they endure, especially when margin calls begin mounting? The next one is a close up of only the Hedge Fund positioning in relation to the gold price.  Some will hold on until or unless $1180 is broken. Some will exit if psychological support near $1200 collapses and gold then changes handles once more from "12" to "11". Also, I am not taking into consideration that many hedge funds are now moving more to the short side of the market. Look at how quickly they moved over to the short side of silver and look at what they have inflicted on that metal. They broke it down below $18.60, then $18.00 in no time flat.   In looking over the chart, I do not see much in the way of overhead resistance until near the 86.50 region. If the Dollar does not receive some sort of negative news from some quarter, further strength bodes ill for the precious metals. On a closing note for now, today's Cattle on Feed report was a tad on the negative side with placements coming in a bit higher than the market was looking for. It should be pointed out however that the placements number in and of itself, is the smallest number since 1996. So even though the number was larger than what the market was expecting, we are still not exactly being swamped by an excess of feeders. Cash trade did break loose this afternoon at $1.59, which was down from last week. That is still higher than October cattle are trading which remain at a discount to the cash markets; however, the lower cash and slightly less friendly COF report might bring a bit of selling into the market early Monday morning. We shall see as trading those reports can be notoriously vexing at times. One last thing - the weather forecasts out through the end of the upcoming week, show nice, warm, dry weather - excellent for harvest in those areas where the combines are rolling and for finishing the crop up in the more northern latitudes. New crop corn and beans are already flowing into the pipelines and that is being reflected in the basis in those areas where harvest is ongoing. |
| Posted: 19 Sep 2014 04:14 PM PDT |
| Legendary Gold Trader: Today is a Day That Should be Memorized Posted: 19 Sep 2014 03:34 PM PDT With gold smashed to $1215, perhaps only a day or 2 from testing bear market lows at $1179 and silver plunging through substantial support at $18 to place new bear market lows Friday, legendary gold trader Jim Sinclair sent an email alert to subscribers stating that today’s trading action is “a classic example of “Popular Delusions, […] The post Legendary Gold Trader: Today is a Day That Should be Memorized appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Posted: 19 Sep 2014 02:56 PM PDT Stacy Summary: Doom in the silver market if you were hoping to swap your silver for fiat.
In the paper silver market, ETF buyers have been accumulating silver while dumping gold; in fact the demand for silver to gold ratio is at its highest ever:
And here is the silver supply of the silver ETFs going back to 2006.
I guess the hedgies are selling. Most of the selling is happening in New York where the paper is traded; they’d get a much higher price in China or India if they had physical and cared about fiat profit. In other news: |
| Silver: Support at 18.27/18.19, resistance at 18.60/18.87 Posted: 19 Sep 2014 02:20 PM PDT fxstreet |
| Gold And Silver Price Drop To Critical Fibonacci Levels Posted: 19 Sep 2014 02:10 PM PDT goldsilverworlds |
| Gold Near Bottom of Range or About to Break Down? Posted: 19 Sep 2014 02:05 PM PDT dailyfx |
| Why I Believe Gold & Silver have been Massacred Since 2011 Posted: 19 Sep 2014 02:00 PM PDT The intensity of the banks' attacks on gold and silver prices have been long, drawn out, and merciless. Since 2011, the banks have been hitting completely "below the belt". They are are now All-in on their efforts to cap gold & silver, because this time they understand: it's for all the marbles. Why have the […] The post Why I Believe Gold & Silver have been Massacred Since 2011 appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Gold And Silver Price Drop To Critical Fibonacci Levels Posted: 19 Sep 2014 01:32 PM PDT The Fed decided to keep the "considerable time" pledge until the first rate hike in its statement on Wednesday. This boosted stocks, sending the Dow and S&P to fresh record highs. The dollar bulls were also satisfied with the so-called "dot plot" of Fed members' forecasts for interest rates edging higher. As the dollar and stocks continued to strengthen, so too did the pressure on commodities priced in the US currency. And so as another week draws to a close, both gold and silver are once again falling. The sell-off has forced the metals to break below some key technical support levels. As a result, fresh sell orders have been triggered which have thus exacerbated the sell-off. In fact, silver has just broken below the 2013 low of $18.20 and at the time of this writing, it looks like more losses are on the way for the grey metal. For silver, the next potential support is around $17.75/80, a level which corresponds with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the last major upswing. The 161.8% extension of that move comes in way down at $16.75. Worryingly for the bulls, the metal has also created a "death crossover" which is another bearish development. This crossover occurs when the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day SMA. The bulls will be hoping that the metal may bounce back off its lows and close the day above where it had opened or ideally at an even better level. If that were to happen, it would indicate that there was lack of supply below $18.20 and we would potentially have a false breakdown reversal pattern on the cards. As we go to press, the chances look slim for this scenario, but it is nonetheless a possibility. The RSI meanwhile is also at an extremely oversold level and this also point to a possible bounce. The near-term resistance levels to watch are at $18.20, $18.60, $18.90 and $19.30 – levels that were formerly support.
Meanwhile, gold has been coming under increased pressure too following the break of the key $1240 level and the subsequent rejection of the rally there. As a result, a move down to $1210/12, where a couple of Fibonacci extension levels converge, could be the next stop – potentially ahead of $1180/5 after that. However, a closing break above $1240 would invalidate this bearish outlook.
By Matthew Weller
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| June 2013 Lows Break As Silver Plunges to $17 Handle Posted: 19 Sep 2014 01:23 PM PDT Silver has just broken below the June 2013 low of $18, continuing its post FOMC “taper” sell-off Friday, plunging to a new bear market low of $17.77. Gold is also continuing its sell-off, but has held above $1215, still $35 off the June 2013 lows of $1179. Silver’s COMEX open plunge to new lows with a $17 […] The post June 2013 Lows Break As Silver Plunges to $17 Handle appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| The Alibaba IPO may shine, but gold is glistening Posted: 19 Sep 2014 12:48 PM PDT While U.S. financial prognosticators are raving over Alibaba and the IPO, the price action in precious metals and in the broader U.S. equity indexes showed signs of weakness about the time it was announced that Alibaba could start trading in the low to mid-$80s. |
| Malaysian government gives jewelers reprieve on tax Posted: 19 Sep 2014 12:08 PM PDT The Malaysian Finance Ministry today clarified that raw material for gold jewelry exports will be exempted from the Goods and Services Tax (GST). |
Many of us who are of a spiritual bent are rightfully concerned about the 
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