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Monday, May 12, 2014

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


The Taxpayer Cost To Maintain Obama’s Golf Handicap: Over $3 Million

Posted: 11 May 2014 09:40 PM PDT

from ZeroHedge:

As the nation shivered through February and March and saw it’s gross domestic product collapse as humans hibernated, President Obama sought sunnier climes to ensure US supremacy on the world-leader’s golf handicap rankings. As The Washington Times reports, however, Obama's trips this year to the golfing playgrounds of Palm Springs and Key Largo cost taxpayers nearly $3 million for flight expenses alone on Air Force One.

And much, much, much more As The Washington Times reports, The activist group Judicial Watch said the trips in February and March cost $2,952,278 for flight expenses of Air Force One.

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

Supply and Demand Report: 11 May

Posted: 11 May 2014 09:34 PM PDT

by Keith Weiner

 

This was another short week, with Monday a bank holiday in the UK.

Through Tuesday, the prices of the metals seemed to want to hold onto the increase that was sparked by an unemployment report. It wasn't until Wednesday that the prices began to sag, almost but not quite to the pre-unemployment report levels again by Friday.

We are not going to lament the folly of man nor trader. We are not even going to comment on the accuracy, or lack thereof, of the unemployment data. We are simply interested in the evolving dynamic between the fundamental setters of the prices of the monetary metals and the speculators who are trying to front run them.

Read on…

First, here is the graph of the metals' prices.

            The Prices of Gold and Silver
Gold and Silver Prices

We are interested in the changing equilibrium created when some market participants are accumulating hoards and others are dishoarding. Of course, what makes it exciting is that speculators can (temporarily) exaggerate or fight against the trend. The speculators are often acting on rumors, technical analysis, or partial data about flows into or out of one corner of the market. That kind of information can't tell them whether the globe, on net, hoarding or dishoarding.

One could point out that gold does not, on net, go into or out of anything. Yes, that is true. But it can come out of hoards and into carry trades. That is what we study. The gold basis tells us about this dynamic.

Conventional techniques for analyzing supply and demand are inapplicable to gold and silver, because the monetary metals have such high inventories. In normal commodities, inventories divided by annual production can be measured in months. The world just does not keep much inventory in wheat or oil.

With gold and silver, stocks to flows is measured in decades. Every ounce of those massive stockpiles is potential supply. Everyone on the planet is potential demand. At the right
price. Looking at incremental changes in mine output or electronic manufacturing is not helpful to predict the future prices of the metals. For an introduction and guide to our concepts and theory, click
here.

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. The ratio moved up this week, ending about 67.4.

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price
Ratio

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide terse commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

            The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
Gold

The dollar is up slightly, to over 24mg. The cobasis is up slightly.

We have previously discussed the extraordinarily high level of the gold cobasis across all contracts. It is not in backwardation, but it's new and different in the post-2008 world to see such a high cobasis (around -0.1%) so far out from the present date. This is evidence of a tight gold market, and suggestive that the price could go higher.

What is interesting to note is that we are in the midst of the contract roll. Those who are long gold are selling their June contracts and if they want to remain long gold they can buy August or a farther month. There is a famous scene in a Sherlock Holmes story, where the dog does not bark in the night (which proves the criminal was known to the dog).

This is the contract roll, which seems not to be able to shove the June cobasis over the zero line. The market is tight but perhaps not that tight.

Now let's look at silver.

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price
Silver

The cobasis fell as the dollar fell (i.e. silver price rose), showing the move was speculative. It ended the week slightly higher than it ended last week. Not only is the silver cobasis four times lower than gold's, but the next month is almost twice lower than that. Gold may be tight, but silver not so much.

We saw one headline on Friday that silver is in backwardation. Not from where we sit, though the July basis is negative. Our definition of backwardation is strict: when one can sell metal in the spot market (bid) for more than one can buy it in the futures market (ask). This is because we are looking for an actionable trade—to decarry.

There is no profit in decarrying silver today. We promise to bellow from the rooftops when, once again, there is.

Keith wrote an article for Forbes that those interested in gold and silver may enjoy, Why Did Both Silver and Gold Become Money?

 

© 2014 Monetary Metals

Are Valuations Really Too High?

Posted: 11 May 2014 08:40 PM PDT

By John Mauldin, Gold Seek:

The older I get and the more I research and study, the more convinced I become that one of the more important traits of a good investor or businessman is not simply to come up with the right answer but to be able to ask the right question. The questions we ask often reveal the biases in our thinking, and we are all prone to what behavioral psychologists call confirmation bias: we tend to look for (and thus to see, and to ask about) things that confirm our current thinking.

I try to spend a significant part of my time researching and thinking about things that will tell me why my current belief system is wrong, testing my opinions against the ideas of others, some of whom are genuine outliers.

Read More @ GoldSeek.com

All That Glitters

Posted: 11 May 2014 08:07 PM PDT

from ZeroHedge:

Sadly, as far as markets are concerned, the more Sturm und Drang over Ukraine, the better… this all further strengthens the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence – the market-controlling common knowledge that market outcomes are the result of central bank policy rather than anything that happens in the real economy. How can you know if this Narrative starts to waver or shift? If and when gold starts to work. This is what gold means in the modern age… not a store of value or some sort of protection against geopolitical instability… but an insurance policy against massive central bank error and loss of control.

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

Help Me Out Here

Posted: 11 May 2014 07:40 PM PDT

by Jim Quinn, The Burning Platform:

"Extending aid to the unemployed is not only the right thing to do, it is also one of the best ways to stimulate economic growth." That has become a frequent talking point whenever the subject of unemployment compensation is discussed.

New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen used that argument during an MSNBC interview. "This is one of the best things we can do to help stimulate the economy, because for every dollar we put in unemployment, it pays back about $1.60. And we know that people who are on unemployment are going to go out, and they're going to spend that money, they're going to pay for groceries at their local grocery store, they're going to buy gas in their car."

Read More @ TheBurningPlatform.com

All That Glitters

Posted: 11 May 2014 06:37 PM PDT

Submitted by Ben Hunt via Salient Partners' Epsilon Theory,

I've received a lot of questions over the past few weeks about Russia and the Ukraine, and why I don't include this flashpoint in my list of greatest market risks. Sorry, but I just don't think it's that big of a deal from a markets perspective.

Russia is going to control Sevastapol, and everyone – including Obama and Merkel and whoever is calling the shots in Kiev – knows it. Period. End of story. Owning a warm water port on the Black Sea has been a cornerstone of Russian political identity since Catherine the Great in the 18th century, and there's nothing that anyone can do (or really wants to do) to stop it. Does effective control of Sevastapol and the Crimea require annexation of Eastern Ukraine? Maybe. Southern Ukraine and Moldova? Seems like a stretch to me, but I hear that the Danube is beautiful this time of year, and if that's what Putin wants that's what he'll get. I'm sure we'll get the usual tsk-tsk'ing from the usual suspects, and maybe even the 2014 equivalent of Jimmy Carter's Moscow Olympics boycott, but that's as far as it goes.

In fact, as far as markets are concerned, the more Sturm und Drang over Ukraine, the better. Draghi needs an excuse to launch some form of European QE, and an ECB staff projection of the dire consequences of Gazprom shutting off the pipelines is just what the doctor ordered. A few days of media hand-wringing over Putin's intentions, perhaps accompanied by – gasp! – a 1% decline in markets, and even Janet Yellen can get into the act, promising to do "whatever it takes" to support our European brethren and overcome this horrific threat to global growth.

Ultimately this all further strengthens the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence – the market-controlling common knowledge that market outcomes are the result of central bank policy rather than anything that happens in the real economy.

How can you know if this Narrative starts to waver or shift? If and when gold starts to work.

This is what gold means in the modern age... not a store of value or some sort of protection against geopolitical instability... but an insurance policy against massive central bank error and loss of control. So long as the dominant narrative remains that central banks are large and in charge, so long as global investors hang on every throwaway line that Draghi utters... gold doesn't stand a chance.

Help GATA -- Buy a DVD, T-shirt, or poster of our prophetic ad in the Wall Street Journal

Posted: 11 May 2014 06:33 PM PDT

9:47p ET Sunday, May 11, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA isn't going out of business, but it's starting to look as if Planet Earth is and we need to raise money to push the planet in a different direction. Fortunately we have a lot of inventory to move.

All the merchandise memorializes GATA's struggle against the gold price suppression scheme and, if we win, your possessing it will show that you were on the right side of history. If we don't win, your possessing it may win you a free one-way trip to Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. But you're already at risk of that anyway.

Here's what we need to move:

-- DVDs of GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London in August 2011, a boxed set of four DVDs including the presentations of all the speakers and panel discussions. The set is priced at $125.

-- DVDs of GATA's Gold Rush 21 conference held in Dawson City, Yukon Territory, Canada, in August 2005, the conference that blasted the gold price upward by exposing the fraud of "paper gold." Again the DVD includes the presentations of all the speakers. The DVD is priced at $19.95 with a discount to $14.95 for orders of five or more. Excerpts from the Gold Rush 21 conference can be viewed here:

http://www.gata.org/node/20

The order mechanism for both DVDs is here, with the London conference DVD at the top, the Yukon conference DVD at the bottom:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

-- GATA T-shirts in medium, large, and extra-large sizes for $30:

http://gata.org/tshirts

-- And posters of GATA's prophetic full-page color advertisement published in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2008. The ad warned that the surreptitious manipulation of the gold and currency markets "has been a primary cause of the catastrophic excesses in the markets that now threaten the whole world." Within months the world financial system began to fall apart. A copy can be purchased for $30 here:

http://www.gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

As you might expect, there are shipping charges for these items but they are modest.

If you haven't purchased any of this stuff, please check it out and consider helping us.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Join GATA here:

Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
Union League Club, New York City
Thursday, May 22, 2014

http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/

Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference
AT&T Performing Arts Center
Margot and Bill Winspear Opera House
2403 Flora St., Dallas, Texas
Saturday, May 31, 2014

http://stansberrydallas.com/

Canadian Investor Conference 2014
Vancouver Convention Centre West
1055 Canada Place, Vancouver, British Columbia
Sunday and Monday, June 1 and 2, 2014

http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc...

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
Wednesday-Saturday, October 22-25, 2014

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/new-orleans-investment-conference/home

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Angela Merkel On The Ledge: "This Is Not Fair... I Am Not Going To Commit Suicide"

Posted: 11 May 2014 05:50 PM PDT

What is most remarkable about the following detailed FT profile of the Cannes November 3-4, 2011 G-20 summit (when Europe, knowing well virtually every other option had been exhausted and was forced to grovel for Chinese cash)... 

...is not that Obama, facing an election and fearful of what a Eurozone disintegration and depression would mean to the US economy and more importantly, to his re-election chances,  managed to bring German chancellor Angela Merkel to tears, which he did...

To the astonishment of almost everyone in the room, Angela Merkel began to cry.

 

"Das ist nicht fair." That is not fair, the German chancellor said angrily, tears welling in her eyes. "Ich bringe mich nicht selbst um." I am not going to commit suicide.

 

For those who witnessed the breakdown in a small conference room in the French seaside resort of Cannes, it was shocking enough to watch Europe's most powerful and emotionally controlled leader brought to tears.

 

But the scene was even more remarkable, those present said, for the two objects of her ire: the man sitting next to her, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and the other across the table, US President Barack Obama.

 

...

 

The US president asked whether Ms Merkel could work it out with the Bundesbank by Monday. Mr Sarkozy suggested finance ministers meet to agree the details before the summit ended the next day. Perhaps something vague could be mentioned in the summit's communiqué, Mr Obama suggested. No, said Mr Sarkozy, but we could meet again in the morning.

 

It was as if the two men had not heard her. She made the point again: "I'm not going to take such a big risk without getting anything from Italy. I'm not going to commit suicide."

No, the real news is that even as Europe was facing near certain disintegration, it still was unwilling to make the compromises necessary to move away from a pseudo-union, one which is neither a federation where joint bond issuance is possible and where members are ratably responsible for each other, nor where the countries are wiling to cede soverignty to the most stable and viable entity in order to spread risk.

Mr Sarkozy attempted to manage the three-way impasse. The US wanted Germany to contribute its SDRs but Germany was only willing to give a partial commitment if Italy gave in on the IMF programme. Giulio Tremonti, Italy's finance minister, held firm: Rome would accept IMF monitoring but no programme. Would the Italian monitoring plan, plus a commitment by Germany to contribute bilateral loans, be enough, Mr Sarkozy asked.

 

"No. Germany has one-fourth of all [eurozone] SDR allocations," Mr Obama objected. "If you have all the EU countries together but not Germany . . . it starts losing credibility."

 

...

 

The leaders met again the next morning but the momentum was gone. "The storm was over," said one person at both meetings. The SDR plan would never again see the light of day. Italy would get a monitoring programme but no funding. And to compound the failure, Mr Berlusconi at his closing news conference publicly acknowledged what everyone had assiduously attempted to keep secret: that the IMF had offered him a rescue programme. Italy would suffer the stigma of needing a rescue but without receiving any assistance.

 

The Cannes failure provided new oxygen to the eurozone fire. When markets reopened, Italian borrowing costs soared. Within the week they would nearly touch 7.5 per cent. Greece's would go above 33 per cent, a level almost without precedent for a developed country. Now, with no new firewall in place, it was unclear what would save the euro.

There is more in the full report by Peter Spiegel, but for those who lived through each and every trial balloon headline, what happened next is a clear memory: Goldman's recent ascendent to the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, sent Italian bond yields soaring in the process forcing Berlusconi to quit, Greece's G-Pap also quit after his failed referendum gambit, and the one thing that prevented the all out collapse of the Eurozone, was the (latest) US-Funded global bailout of November 30, 2011.

And ever since then it has been one lie after another, starting with Draghi's "Whatever it takes" bluff to prevent the collapse the Euro, knowing full well the ECB is unable to monetize bonds at will like the US Fed (in his own words), and which has since transformed to a "whatever it takes" to push the Euro lower (confirming that the Eurozone is only viable in a EURUSD 1.20-1.40 corridor, and proceeding with the OMT "program" which still doesn't actually exist, nearly two years after its introduction.

So what has happened in Europe since the fateful Cannes G-20 summit in 2011 which made Merkel cry? Why nothing. Absolutely nothing has changed, that infamous austerity which everyone hates never actually happened (those confused about this are urged to look at all time record high (and rising fast) debt numbers across the Eurozone periphery), and worst of all, that most important Keynesian variable - private sector loan growth - never picked up. As the chart below shows, Eurozone lending to private business remains at a record low, and very deflationary, -2.2%.

The reason: since European government merely kicked the can courtesy of yet another global central bank "put" exercise, all the politicians were spared the dread of actually implementing painful reforms. So what did Europe do? It changed the definition of GDP sufficiently to make Spain and Italy appear as if the two fulcrum nations are growing, and also suckered US hedge funds and private equity firms to chase after European non-performing loans and bad debt, now that the scramble for distressed real estate is finally over as US housing has finished its fourth dead cat bounce.

But at least Merkel did not have to cry any more, as the return of the Deutsche Mark was delayed by a few more years, at the expense of all those peripheral workers (the lucky ones who did not lose their job of course) who devoid of the capacity for an external, FX, rebalancing have seen their wages crater for years, just so Germany can keep its export machine humming courtesy of a cheaper currency.

We wonder if once the effect of the liquidity tsunami fades alongside the Fed taper (especially since the ECB's bluff of full, Fed-style QE will remain nothing more than just that, a bluff), and European bonds are finally reacquainted with selling, in turn sending the continent in yet another recession because, we will repeat again, nothing in Europe has been fixed, whether European stubbornness wins out again, and the member nations would opt out for disintegration of the most artificial union in history, or whether Angela Merkel will cry one final time?

Sunday Night Gold Action

Posted: 11 May 2014 05:42 PM PDT

Sunday Night Gold Action

Posted: 11 May 2014 05:42 PM PDT

Dan Ameduri of Future Money Trends interviews GATA Chairman Bill Murphy

Posted: 11 May 2014 05:13 PM PDT

8:10p ET Sunday, May 11, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Dan Ameduri of Future Money Trends this week interviewed GATA Chairman Bill Murphy about the increasing attention being paid to suspicions that the gold market is being manipulated, if not by central banks then at least by the bullion banks participating in the daily London gold fixes. The interview is 19 minutes long and can be heard at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZloPvGCsN4

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sinclair to speak at New York conference and hold Q&A meeting afterward

Gold advocate and mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair will give the closing address at the Metals and Minerals conference to be held Monday and Tuesday, May 12 and 13, at the Marriott Marquis hotel in New York City:

http://www.metalsandmineralsevents.com/ehome/index.php?eventid=81632&

Following the conference, Sinclair will hold his own question-and-answer meeting at the hotel for followers of his Internet site, JSMineSet.com. Registration for the latter meeting will cost $100 and will include free registration for the Metals and Minerals conference. For more information, please visit:

http://www.jsmineset.com/2014/04/29/jim-added-as-keynote-speaker-to-meta...



Join GATA here:

Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference
AT&T Performing Arts Center
Margot and Bill Winspear Opera House
2403 Flora St., Dallas, Texas
Saturday, May 31, 2014

http://stansberrydallas.com/

Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
Union League Club, New York City
Thursday, May 22, 2014

http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/

Canadian Investor Conference 2014
Vancouver Convention Centre West
1055 Canada Place, Vancouver, British Columbia
Sunday and Monday, June 1 and 2, 2014

http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc...

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 22-25, 2014
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/new-orleans-investment-conference/home

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

The Sunday Gold Smackdown: East Ukraine Independence Edition

Posted: 11 May 2014 04:32 PM PDT

...because there's no better time (or fiduciarily dutiful moment) than a Sunday night at 650pm ET after half of Eastern Ukraine votes to secede to Russia to sell $231.5 million notional worth of gold futures...

 

Cameron, Confiscation, And "What's Yours Ain't Yours!"

Posted: 11 May 2014 03:01 PM PDT

Submitted by Martin Armstrong via Armstrong Economics,

David Cameron has come out and argued that taxes will rise unless he can raid bank accounts in the UK. Cameron argues he will "have to put up taxes" unless tax officials are given draconian powers to raid people's bank accounts if they think they even owe money. Trust me – all politicians share ideas. Obama is already conniving a way to do the same thing – you can bet on that.

There is no elite private conspiracy of some dominating group. That implies some comprehension of what is even possible. I have sat in the room with such people and these conspiracy stories give these people way too much credit for being intelligent. Nobody smart enough to handle the job ever seeks such positions. Governments are run by lawyer-politicians who think they need only decree some law that solves the problem. They understand nothing. Why should people keep money in a bank in the UK after Cameron makes such a statement? He is way too stupid to realize people act in anticipation.

If I said I was going to punch you in the face, would you stand there or act in anticipation like move or fight back? Politicians cannot get this through their head that the economy functions always in anticipation of future events. They are just crazy – although not out of their mind entirely just yet. They can read a script, but they are incapable of understanding the people or math.

These people are simply beyond control. All they can see is the immediate issue to survive day-by-day. They have absolutely zero comprehension of what they are doing and even less understanding of what happens when there is no more money they can raid. Those at the helm of the world need no elite-conspiracy. They are too stupid to have long-term plans beyond 30 days. This is how Empires Collapse – they are following the precise step-by-step guide for total chaos.

From 1 point 4 Quadrillion derivatives to Chaos

Posted: 11 May 2014 12:41 PM PDT

King World News weekly – May 10, 2014

In this week's interview Egon relates what happened in the UK in the 1970′s to what will happen next in many other countries; collapsing currency, high inflation and soaring gold

Greyerz: "Eric, every day we get reminders that hyperinflation is on its way. The Congressional Budget Office now estimates that U.S. government … Read the rest

Buy Gold at $70 Below Melt Value...

Posted: 11 May 2014 09:27 AM PDT

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: It's the best legal way to BUY and SELL gold that I've ever seen... Right now, we have an incredible window of opportunity... There's a way you can buy gold at roughly $70 off melt value – a 6% discount. It's the best way to buy gold right now.

Fed Warns of UNSUSTAINABLE Debt, Beyond $100 Trillion!

Posted: 11 May 2014 09:18 AM PDT

Unsustainable debt isn't a future prediction as the Fed makes it seem. When using GAAP, the US is already well beyond a sustainable level and will ultimately have to reform or COLLAPSE. Despite what the politicians tell you, these are the two options. The government will never admit fault and will...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Why Hedge Funds Became Endangered Species

Posted: 11 May 2014 08:55 AM PDT

Long Illnesses End That Way The history of the hedge funds isn't written. Attempts at explaining how they started always focus the late-1960s “fluttering heartbeat of modern capitalism”. Stock price volatility increased, and prices started declining, sometimes by a lot, as economic growth declined and inflation rose in several G7 countries. This is the 'classic explanation' why the funds emerged. The London Gold Pool panic of March 1968 is often cited as a key tipping point and date.  After that, hedge funds had a rationale!

Technical Picture: Gold Neutral, Silver Fragile, Palladium Breakout

Posted: 11 May 2014 06:46 AM PDT

One of the most respected technical analysts we are following is Louise Yamada. Her independent research company provides in-depth and thought-provoking analysis on all markets, including precious metals. She has a background of 25 years as Managing Director of Technical Research at Citi.

We have been following Yamada’s work for a long time and appreciate her analysis because it is truly unbiased, very sharp and broad (it covers plenty of markets worldwide). An outstanding feature of the analysis is that readers are offered different perspectives on each market, which sometimes reveals trends that are rather invisible. For precious metals investors it helps to put the metals markets activity in a broad perspective of ongoing market trends. In other words, understanding broad market activity is helpful to interpret the state of the metals market. 

The following is an excerpt from Yamada’s latest monthly update for premium subscribers, released earlier this week. We were granted permission to release the analysis related to the precious metals to our readers. We highly recommend subscribing to the monthly in-depth analysis of Louise Yamada on www.lyadvisors.com.

Gold: Neutral

Gold Spot price (GOLDS-1.299.62, see Figure 23) is following the technical adage "the bigger the drop, the longer the need for repair." Gold has now spent one year in a range between 1,400 resistance and 1,200 support, direction unknown. This is a normal part of the process of repair, if price is to move higher at a later date. A neutral pattern can also precede another decline in an ongoing downtrend. Monthly momentum is still negative but flattening, and weekly momentum is positive but flattening. Neutral remains the trend until one of the above parameters is breached. The brief attempt to penetrate the 2012 downtrend (dashed line) was aborted and price is interestingly back below and so far, rallies are struggling there.

gold price april 2014 price

gold price weekly chart – April 2014

It pays to step back and look again at the longer-term relationship of the S&P 500 (SPX) versus Gold (see Figure 24), a ratio that has shown the outperformance of Gold (falling ratio line) from 2000 to 2011 during which equities were experiencing a bear market into 2009, and the rising ratio now, which depicts the SPX outperforming Gold.

The five-year base and breakout suggest that a new structural advance in equities versus Gold is now in place, and that any interruptions, as may now be noted, is nothing more than a short-term interruption to the new structural outperformance trend for equities. Thus one might make a deduction that Gold could either remain flat, decline further, or go up less than equities.

SP 500 vs gold price april 2014 price

S&P 500 vs gold price – April 2014

Silver: Fragile

Silver Spot price (SILV-19.50) has not fared quite as well as Gold and again is tickling support near 19 and holding below both MAs as depicted herein last month. Risk remains at 18 and only a lift through the 200-day MA at 21.10 and the downtrend line at 21.60 would suggest potential for a rally.

Platinum: Neutral

Platinum spot price (PLAT- 1438.25) depicted herein last month, has moved little, retaining a sideways pattern above support at 1,400-1,325. The three-year downtrend remains in place and weekly and monthly momentum are barely positive and barely negative respectively 5 effectively neutral. Price still would need to exceed 1,500 to reverse the more negative bias of the downtrends.

Palladium: Breakout

Palladium spot price (PALL-811.65) is the only metal to definitively break out of a two-year consolidation through 800 (see Figure 26) with a confirmation in the monthly momentum just turning up to positive. Price may now address the 2011 high near 860 and could even progress beyond over time. Support now lies at 785 and 750, the uptrend from 2009.

palladium price april 2014 price

palladium price monthly chart – April 2014

 

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