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- Technical Picture: Gold Neutral, Silver Fragile, Palladium Breakout
- Near-Term Outlook Grim For Precious Metals As 2 Important Props May Have Been Removed
- Koos Jansen: Chinese gold demand running at rate of 2,000 tonnes per year
- Gold Bar Types Definitions
- Short term cash is now king but longer term it’s a complete disaster for investors
- All the Presidents’ Bankers: Ex Goldman Managing Director Nomi Prins on the Coming Market Crash
- Monthly Bank Participation Report Of Precious Metals: April 2014
| Technical Picture: Gold Neutral, Silver Fragile, Palladium Breakout Posted: 11 May 2014 06:46 AM PDT One of the most respected technical analysts we are following is Louise Yamada. Her independent research company provides in-depth and thought-provoking analysis on all markets, including precious metals. She has a background of 25 years as Managing Director of Technical Research at Citi. We have been following Yamada’s work for a long time and appreciate her analysis because it is truly unbiased, very sharp and broad (it covers plenty of markets worldwide). An outstanding feature of the analysis is that readers are offered different perspectives on each market, which sometimes reveals trends that are rather invisible. For precious metals investors it helps to put the metals markets activity in a broad perspective of ongoing market trends. In other words, understanding broad market activity is helpful to interpret the state of the metals market. The following is an excerpt from Yamada’s latest monthly update for premium subscribers, released earlier this week. We were granted permission to release the analysis related to the precious metals to our readers. We highly recommend subscribing to the monthly in-depth analysis of Louise Yamada on www.lyadvisors.com. Gold: NeutralGold Spot price (GOLDS-1.299.62, see Figure 23) is following the technical adage "the bigger the drop, the longer the need for repair." Gold has now spent one year in a range between 1,400 resistance and 1,200 support, direction unknown. This is a normal part of the process of repair, if price is to move higher at a later date. A neutral pattern can also precede another decline in an ongoing downtrend. Monthly momentum is still negative but flattening, and weekly momentum is positive but flattening. Neutral remains the trend until one of the above parameters is breached. The brief attempt to penetrate the 2012 downtrend (dashed line) was aborted and price is interestingly back below and so far, rallies are struggling there.  gold price weekly chart – April 2014 It pays to step back and look again at the longer-term relationship of the S&P 500 (SPX) versus Gold (see Figure 24), a ratio that has shown the outperformance of Gold (falling ratio line) from 2000 to 2011 during which equities were experiencing a bear market into 2009, and the rising ratio now, which depicts the SPX outperforming Gold. The five-year base and breakout suggest that a new structural advance in equities versus Gold is now in place, and that any interruptions, as may now be noted, is nothing more than a short-term interruption to the new structural outperformance trend for equities. Thus one might make a deduction that Gold could either remain flat, decline further, or go up less than equities.  S&P 500 vs gold price – April 2014 Silver: FragileSilver Spot price (SILV-19.50) has not fared quite as well as Gold and again is tickling support near 19 and holding below both MAs as depicted herein last month. Risk remains at 18 and only a lift through the 200-day MA at 21.10 and the downtrend line at 21.60 would suggest potential for a rally. Platinum: NeutralPlatinum spot price (PLAT- 1438.25) depicted herein last month, has moved little, retaining a sideways pattern above support at 1,400-1,325. The three-year downtrend remains in place and weekly and monthly momentum are barely positive and barely negative respectively 5 effectively neutral. Price still would need to exceed 1,500 to reverse the more negative bias of the downtrends. Palladium: BreakoutPalladium spot price (PALL-811.65) is the only metal to definitively break out of a two-year consolidation through 800 (see Figure 26) with a confirmation in the monthly momentum just turning up to positive. Price may now address the 2011 high near 860 and could even progress beyond over time. Support now lies at 785 and 750, the uptrend from 2009.  palladium price monthly chart – April 2014
Subscribe to the monthly analysis of Louise Yamada for in-depth insights on ongoing market activity: www.lyadvisors.com. |
| Near-Term Outlook Grim For Precious Metals As 2 Important Props May Have Been Removed Posted: 11 May 2014 06:17 AM PDT A dearth of positive catalysts for precious metals could make the period ahead a trying one for gold and silver investors, as two bullish factors - safe haven demand stemming from violence in the Ukraine and the weakening U.S. dollar - could be fading. This sets the stage for another move lower this summer, and the possible completion of a reverse head-and-shoulders bottom later this year that would be wildly bullish. Due in large part to seasonal factors, demand for gold and silver in Asia is likely to offer little support to metal prices over the near-term after record buying last year in China and the reluctance to lift gold import curbs in India this year. Traders and investors in the West are decidedly uninterested in precious metals as evidenced by steady ETF holdings, however, a surprise in this week's U.S. inflation report could rekindle their interest. For the week, |
| Koos Jansen: Chinese gold demand running at rate of 2,000 tonnes per year Posted: 11 May 2014 12:32 AM PDT GATA |
| Posted: 10 May 2014 10:30 PM PDT GoldBarsWorldwide |
| Short term cash is now king but longer term it’s a complete disaster for investors Posted: 10 May 2014 09:04 PM PDT When anybody comes up with a solid investment proposal at the moment the sensible gut reaction is not to do it. That’s because financial markets are at all-time highs and you’re probably better off with cash on the sidelines so that you can buy assets at lower prices after a correction. Assymetrical risk is the issue here: the upside on stocks is likely very much smaller than the downside risk of a correction. How low could we go? Pick your expert for anything from a 10 to 50 per cent fall. You don’t want to be on the wrong side of that falling knife. Long term disaster On the other hand, you don’t need to dig far into investment research to discover that cash is a complete disaster for investors over the long run. Ask older members of your family what they could buy with $50 a couple of decades ago. Even today inflation is ahead of very low interest rates so you are losing money holding cash, albeit far less than you will in market correction. Should you always stay invested in financial markets and ride out the corrections? It is easier to ask should you be buying at expensive prices now or more cheaply later for the better long term return. This is obvious. Certainly trading in and out like a manic gambler is a sure way to lose your money in commissions, and your judgment is likely to be less than 100 per cent too. However, the notion that stock markets always pay out in the long term is also flawed. Consider the guy who bought a basket of top US stocks in 1999. Yes they are a little higher now but the price of gold is up 500 per cent and silver 650 per cent. US stocks attract all the attention because Wall Street is a magnificent selling machine but you needed to be doing more than acting as a tracker to win over the past decade or so. Indeed, one recent survey of rich folk had around one per cent putting their wealth down to investment in the stock market. Warren Buffett is a very rare animal. Real estate and private equity are still the main routes to serious money and they tend to at least keep up with inflation over time. Buy low, sell high You still need to buy at the lows to make a fortune in both asset classes and remember to exit close to the top. Cash never quite gives you this opportunity, although you could argue the US dollar looks pretty low right now with the interest rate cycle depressed. That’s the mirror image of the over-inflated stock market that is ripe for a correction as soon as Monday. Sell high, buy low? Money will rotate out of stocks and into bonds and cash and raise the value of money. Short term at least cash is king! |
| All the Presidents’ Bankers: Ex Goldman Managing Director Nomi Prins on the Coming Market Crash Posted: 10 May 2014 09:01 PM PDT
 If you want to understand the relationships between the American banking industry and Washington, D.C., look no further than the new book by Nomi Prins: All the Presidents' Bankers: The Hidden Alliances that Drive American Power. Prins joined Eric Dubin on Liberty Rising Radio for a lively discussion about the rise of American banking power. Bankers [...] The post All the Presidents’ Bankers: Ex Goldman Managing Director Nomi Prins on the Coming Market Crash appeared first on Silver Doctors. |
| Monthly Bank Participation Report Of Precious Metals: April 2014 Posted: 10 May 2014 02:41 PM PDT The CFTC releases at the end of each month the futures positions in precious metals of the large banks. At the closing of April 2014 there was no big difference in gold and silver compared to the previous month. Palladium had a notable increase in short positions by US banks. A detailed analysis was provided by Ed Steer in his latest newsletter (click here to subscribe). From Ed Steer’s daily newsletter: As far as the companion May Bank Participation Report [BPR] is concerned, don’t forget that this is the one day a month when we find out what the U.S. and world banks are up to in the Comex precious metals, as the data for this report is extracted directly from the Commitment of Traders Report, so we can compare apples to apples between each report. In gold, 4 U.S. banks are net long the Comex futures market by 12,159 contracts, a decline of 2,400 contracts since the April BPR. Since Ted Butler says that JPMorgan has a long position of about 43,000 contracts, that means that the other 3 U.S. banks must be short about 31,000 contracts [give or take] between them to make the math work. Also in gold, 21 non-U.S. banks are net short the Comex futures market by 42,962 contacts, an increase in their collective Comex short position of 3,985 contracts from the April BPR. I’m still of the opinion that a decent chunk of this short position is held by Canada’s Scotiabank after their wholly-owned subsidiary Scotia Mocatta was forced to report its Comex futures market positions by the CFTC back in October of 2012. So it’s my guess that once you divide the remaining short contracts up amongst the other 20 non-U.S. banks, their positions are immaterial compared to the outrageous positions held by the four U.S. banks—and Scotiabank. Here’s Nick Laird’s chart showing the latest monthly data—and the ‘click to enlarge’ feature works wonders. Note on Chart #4 the blow out of the non-U.S. banks short position back in October 2012 when Scotia Mocatta was forced to come out of the closet—on both the long and short side. Chart courtesy: Sharelynx.  CFTC bank participation report in Gold
In silver, ’3 or less’ U.S. banks were net short 16,485 Comex contracts, a decline of 4,115 contracts from the April BPR. Since Ted puts JPMorgan’s short-side corner in the Comex silver market at around 20,000 contracts, this means that ’2 or less’ U.S. banks have to be net long the Comex silver market to the tune of 3,500 contracts or so, in order to make the math work. The other two U.S. banks holding long positions would be HSBC USA—and possibly Citigroup. And just as a matter of interest, look at the short-side corner blow-out in Comex silver back in August 2008 when JPMorgan took over the silver short position of Bear Stearns. A short position, most of which, they still hold to this day. The data is on Chart #4—but stands out on Chart #5 as well. Also in silver, no less than 13 non-U.S. banks are net short 13,108 Comex silver contracts between them—that’s a decline/improvement of 1,613 contracts from the April BPR. My comments on Canada’s Scotiabank/Scotia Mocatta in silver are similar to what I had to say about their short-side corner in gold further up. When they were outed by the CFTC in October of 2012, their Comex short position blew out the non-U.S. bank category by many hundreds of percent, as you can tell from Chart #4 below. I’m still of the opinion that two thirds to three quarters of the 13,108 contracts held net short by the 13 non-U.S. banks is held by Scotiabank. This makes the short positions of the 12 remaining non-U.S. banks immaterial.  CFTC bank participation report in Silver
In platinum, 4 U.S. banks are net short 11,782 Comex contracts, a decline/improvement of 1,046 contracts from the April BPR. These four banks are short about 18% of the entire Comex platinum market on a net basis. Also in platinum, 13 non-U.S. banks are net short 5,559 Comex contracts, an increase of 631 contracts from the April BPR. Between them, these 13 non-U.S. banks are net short 8.6% of the entire Comex platinum market, which means that their individual positions are immaterial compared to the outrageous short positions held by the 4 U.S. banks. And I would be prepared to bet big money that JPMorgan holds the lion’s share of the short positions held by the U.S. banks.  CFTC bank participation report in Platinum
In palladium, ’3 or less’ U.S. banks are net short 9,006 Comex contracts between them. That’s a decline/improvement of 647 contracts from the prior month. These ’3 or less’ U.S. banks are net short a bit over 20% of the entire Comex palladium market. It’s also a safe bet that JPMorgan hold’s the lion’s share of these short positions as well. Also in palladium, not less than 11 non-U.S. banks are net short 4,373 Comex contracts, an increase of 733 contracts from April. These 11 non-U.S. banks are net short 9.8% of the Comex palladium market, or less than 1% apiece, also immaterial.  CFTC bank participation report in Palladium
As I say every month at this juncture, this is a 100% “Made in America” precious metal price management scheme, with a little international flavour from Scotiabank in silver thrown in. And the incredible thing about all this is that all these numbers come directly from the CFTC. I don’t have to make them up. This, along with the four charts in Friday’s column, is prima facie evidence that hangs them all. Case closed. Source: Ed Steer (text) and Nick Laird (charts) |
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