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Silver Price Forecast 2014: Silver’s Ultimate Rally When Paper Assets Collapse
Gold Miners Index plays greater role in metals markets
Gold preparing to launch as U.S. dollar drops to key support
Silver finally outperforms. How bullish is that?
The Obama Administration Wants Gun Owners To Wear RFID Tracking Bracelets!
Question Greenspan about gold at the New Orleans conference in October
T. Ferguson: We’re Past the Point of NO RETURN: Inflationary Collapse Ahead!
This Week's Inflation Report Could Change Everything For Gold
Silver Shield Golden Girl Available for Pre-Sale Now at SDBullion!
A Weak Dollar Environment
Is GDX A Worthy Gold Stock Benchmark?
Contrarian Value Investors Are Taking Large Positions In Gold And Miners
University of Southern Maine, Facing Organized Opposition from Students and Faculty, Rescinds Proposed Cuts
Gold at Major Inflection Point Ahead of Fed Beige Book- $1327 Key
Miners Index Charts Show Domed House and Three Peaks
Alasdair Macleod: Higher Silver Prices Likely to Trigger a Vicious Bear Squeeze!
Are Dimon & JPMorgan Throwing Blythe Masters Under the Bus?
LIVE STREAM: BLM vs. Cliven Bundy – SWAT Suits Up, En-Route
US stocks are overdue for more than a normal correction
Dubai real estate remains very active but prices rises slow
Now That the U.S. and China Have Picked the Low-Hanging Fruit, Peak Everything Looms
Ten habits you should take up now to live to 100

Silver Price Forecast 2014: Silver’s Ultimate Rally When Paper Assets Collapse

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 11:43 AM PDT

Silver Price Forecast 2014: Silver’s Ultimate Rally When Paper Assets Collapse The relationship between the Dow and silver has been very consistent over the last 100 years. After each of the major Dow peaks (real, not necessarily nominal peaks), we eventually had major bottom in silver. Below, is a 100-year inflation-adjusted Dow chart: In September […]

Gold Miners Index plays greater role in metals markets

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 10:37 AM PDT

The American GDX Gold Miners ETF is slowly becoming the de-facto standard for measuring gold-stock performance.

Gold preparing to launch as U.S. dollar drops to key support

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 10:30 AM PDT

Gold bugs have been forecasting a dollar collapse for years. Is it time for that forecast to materialize?

Silver finally outperforms. How bullish is that?

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 10:02 AM PDT

Is now the time to go short gold or silver? Here's one perspective.

The Obama Administration Wants Gun Owners To Wear RFID Tracking Bracelets!

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 10:00 AM PDT

Attorney General Eric Holder says that gun owners in the United States could eventually be forced to wear RFID tracking bracelets. In fact, in recent testimony in front of Congress he gave the impression that this was something that the Obama administration has been thinking about for quite a long time. Holder seems to think [...]

The post The Obama Administration Wants Gun Owners To Wear RFID Tracking Bracelets! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Question Greenspan about gold at the New Orleans conference in October

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 09:32 AM PDT

GATA

T. Ferguson: We’re Past the Point of NO RETURN: Inflationary Collapse Ahead!

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 09:00 AM PDT

In this MUST LISTEN interview with Finance & Liberty’s Elijah Johnson, T. Ferguson explains why we are past the point of NO RETURN, and states that a full-blown inflationary collapse is DEAD AHEAD!!

The post T. Ferguson: We’re Past the Point of NO RETURN: Inflationary Collapse Ahead! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

This Week's Inflation Report Could Change Everything For Gold

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 07:08 AM PDT

Renewed tensions in Ukraine, a weaker U.S. dollar, and a faltering domestic stock market combined to support precious metals prices last week as most risk assets declined. Dollar weakness appears to be the biggest short-term driver for gold while steady demand in China and India continues to be one of the most important long-term factors and recent news from Asia has been encouraging during what is a seasonally weak time of the year.

While some gold market analysts are again bullish after recent gains, big investment banks are still mostly bearish, while U.S. investors remain largely uninterested in precious metals, neither buying nor selling. That could soon change, however, as surging U.S. import/export and wholesale prices have suddenly rekindled inflation concerns with more data available this week when the Labor Department releases the March consumer price index.

For the week, the gold price rose 1.2 percent, from $1,302.30 an ounce

Silver Shield Golden Girl Available for Pre-Sale Now at SDBullion!

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 06:00 AM PDT

The Silver Shield Golden Girl in a Collector’s Case With COA & the 2 oz and 5 oz Crucifixion Silver Rounds Are Available in Both BU and Proofs Versions Now at SDBullion!

The post Silver Shield Golden Girl Available for Pre-Sale Now at SDBullion! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

A Weak Dollar Environment

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 05:21 AM PDT

The U.S. Dollar index exhibits the classic characteristics of a downtrending asset: Declining 50 and 200 day moving averages with the 50 solidly below the 200. Momentum indicators (MACD, PMO) both on sell signals.

(click to enlarge)

A longer term view shows the index on the edge of support:

(click to enlarge)

A break of the 78-79 support level would open the way to a return to the lows. A very long term view on the monthly chart shows some reason for optimism as the index has built a base over the last few years:

(click to enlarge)

Unfortunately this dollar stability of the last few years is somewhat of a mirage. Other indicators of the value of the dollar, such as gold and general commodity indexes, have been much more volatile. Regardless, from a technical perspective, all these charts point to a return to the weak dollar environment we

Is GDX A Worthy Gold Stock Benchmark?

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 04:50 AM PDT

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is slowly becoming the de facto standard for measuring gold stock performance. Nearing its eighth birthday, GDX has even usurped the venerable HUI gold stock index as this sector's metric of choice in many circles. While GDX has advantages and disadvantages compared to the traditional HUI, it is an excellent gold stock benchmark, but it still falls far short of individual stock picking.

Gold stock speculation and investment isn't easy. Like any sector, it takes a great deal of experience and expertise to understand what the miners and explorers are doing and separate the wheat from the chaff. In some ways, analyzing gold stocks is even harder. As the consummate contrarian sector, gold stocks get very little coverage in the mainstream financial press. So the best of breed aren't widely known.

This relative information vacuum leaves gold stocks somewhere between a challenge and

Contrarian Value Investors Are Taking Large Positions In Gold And Miners

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 04:25 AM PDT

In his latest Gold Investment Letter, John Hathaway, Portfolio Manager and Senior Managing Director at Tocqueville Asset Management, writes that chances are high that the bottom is in for precious metals and miners. He admits not being 100% sure, rightly so, as it is impossible to predict a final bottom. The point is that all signs point to a lasting bottom and brewing strength in precious metals.

The most interesting statement in the investor letter, at least in our view, is the observation that tontrarian value investors are entering the precious metals market, both the metals and miners. That is a signficant evolution, and the most important sign of strength. Hathaway explains the rationale behind it:

We observe that many investors who understand, and may well have been deeply committed to the investment rationale for gaining exposure to potential currency debasement, have been scarred by two extremely difficult years of negative performance and are therefore on the sidelines looking for a comfortable point to reenter the sector. In the meantime, we have witnessed the entry of contrarian value investors whose rationale can be summed up as viewing gold mining shares as an inexpensive way to protect capital in the event of a broad correction in equity and capital markets. It seems highly certain to us that the positive returns generated by equity markets over the past two years have represented a substantial barrier for capital to reenter precious metals. We therefore believe that a bear market in equities would constitute a catalyst to drive gold and precious metals equities sharply higher.

Supply and demand continue to be robust. It should translate in higher gold prices going forward. At the supply side, miners are not likely to embark upon news programs of mine construction at current prices. Therefore, Hathaway believes that mine supply will shrink in the years ahead, especially after 2015. This is what he sees in the demand side:

The demand picture, especially from Asian consumers and possible central banks, looks robust. The flow of gold into China continues to set records and the all-important consumption by the Indian subcontinent remains solid. The Chinese government, acutely aware to the downside risks of its $4 trillion exposure to the US currency, has almost certainly been surreptitiously accumulating physical gold as a hedge. Should Western investor demand return following its two year withdrawal, the impact could be explosive in the context of an already tight situation for supply. Since the rationale for a turnabout cannot be articulated and is almost inconceivable in terms of consensus investment views, it seems all the more inevitable. The situation seems to have strong parallels to the 1999 bottom in the gold market.

Hathaway discusses the gold market structure which he believes is likely to change in 2014:

We believe that the architecture of the gold market is set to undergo significant change in the current year and that these changes, which have little to do with macroeconomic considerations, will result in attracting capital flows. These changes begin with inquiries by regulatory authorities in Germany and the UK into possible price manipulation by bullion banks in connection with the London Fix mechanism for gold. These inquiries have been followed by lawsuits seeking damages for plaintiffs possibly injured by price manipulation. We believe many other lawsuits could follow. These in turn would lead to a process of discovery, daylighting the practices of bullion banking. Suspicion of market manipulation and collusive practices has been widespread for many years, and the enlistment of regulatory and legal resources to uncover these possibilities is, in our opinion, constructive.

Last but not least, gold mining companies, in response to the difficult conditions of the past two years, have cut costs and committed to returning capital to shareholders.

There has been wide scale replacement of senior managements in response to shareholder dissatisfaction with poor performance, disrespect for financial discipline, and disregard for shareholder interests. Many of the new class of CEO's have taken an oath to refrain from high risk capital programs that in the past have led to serious dilution of shareholder interests. Even a modest rise in gold prices would result in free cash generation that will in our opinion surprise investors favorably.

Gold Monitor – 50 gold related charts for Q1 2014

From his gold monitor, a collection of 50 charts directly and indirectly related to gold, we have picked out the ones we believe are showing a significant trend. The full document is embedded below.

Real rates in US and Europe versus the gold price in dollars and euros:

real rates vs gold price Q1 2014 investing

Central bank balance sheets for the major Western economies (left) and M2 in the US vs the gold price:
money supply M2 vs gold price Q1 2014 investing

Sentiment towards gold clearly came off a bottom in Q1 2014:

sentiment public gold Q1 2014 investing

University of Southern Maine, Facing Organized Opposition from Students and Faculty, Rescinds Proposed Cuts

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 02:25 AM PDT

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Good news, which I hope travels fast to other universities. Maine Sunday Telegram:

University of Southern Maine President Theodora Kalikow on Friday rescinded the 12 faculty layoffs that had prompted weeks of protests, saying she's open to alternative plans for finding up to $14 million in cuts.

(I know! I know! [raises hand] You can eliminate the Chancellor’s office, which sucks up $20 million dollars for no apparent reason. You could also hunt down the political appointees previous Democratic governor Baldacci installed throughout the system in highly paid administrative — that is, unproductive — positions.) Of course, Kalikow was at pains to deny that the opposition had anything to do with her decision:

"Those retrenchment (layoff) notices are off the table for now," Kalikow said Friday afternoon at the USM Faculty Senate meeting. She said she made up her mind at 2 p.m., just as the meeting began, and didn't even have time to tell the affected faculty.

The surprise announcement came as the Faculty Senate unveiled a draft 27-point proposal for alternative cuts and about two dozen students traveled to Augusta to lobby state lawmakers. The students met with members of the Portland delegation and the Legislature's Education and Cultural Affairs Committee.

Also, the faculty union sent a grievance letter to the administration Thursday challenging the layoffs.

But Kalikow said none of those things played a role in her decision [never let 'em see you sweat], saying she had been out of state [apparently without phone or Internet] and didn't know about the union letter and had not read the Faculty Senate proposal [diplomacy!]. And while she praised the students for their activism, she said that did not play a role in the reversal, either.

Kalikow said she didn't see herself as "caving" in to pressure, but didn't say exactly what changed her mind [ha ha].

Some mysterious force, a deus ex machina, I suppose. Although who knows? Perhaps the faculty proposal, union grievance and the student protests changed the mind of a “hidden hand” that’s manipulating Kalikow? Heck, maybe it was Krugman!

Here are the alternative cuts proposed by the Faculty Senate:

[They] include ending the use of outside consultants, eliminating middle-management administrators and consolidating the three campuses of the University of Southern Maine. There is no dollar figure associated with the list of 27 proposals, but Faculty Senate Chairman Jerry LaSala said he believes they can find the same cost savings that were in Kalikow's proposal.

Here’s the full list of recommendations; this one is especially fun:

8. Require the President, Provost, and Deans each to teach one class per year to offset their salaries via tuition revenue

Ha. Worthy goals all. However, institutionally, the most important trend to combat is what I called “mall-ificaiton” (hyphen added for clarity) the last time we looked at USM:

Our university is to become a big mall with lovely facilities, a few very well-paid investors, executives, and administrators, and a retail experience for consumers. And retail wages and working conditions for the workers.

At USM, mall-ification is to be achieved through something called “The President’s Leadership Council” (and whenever you hear the word “leadership,” put your hand on your wallet or clutch your purse).

Theo Kalikow's appointment began with the creation of a "Leadership Institute" into which hand-picked members of the staff, faculty, and administration were inducted.

Their first assignment was to read a book called Our Iceberg Is Melting: Changing and Succeeding Under Any Conditions. Written by John Kotter, formerly of the Harvard Business School, and advertised as a "low-threat tool" for changing organizations bound by tradition, the little book features members of the Penguin Leadership Council compelled to adjust to changing circumstances or die.

Translated to academic culture, this means that tenure-track positions will be replaced by lectureships and online classes; nationwide standards for tenure and promotion will give way to demonstrations of having promoted the new branding; and raises will be used to reward those who show willingness to forget academic values and to promote a "new normal."

Does the Senate Faculty proposal have an answer for this? Why, yes. Abolish the institution that’s doing it, which is excellent academic politics:

15. Abolish the President’s Leadership Institute, which does not serve students.

Quite right, too. Meanwhile, the students lobbied the state legislature:

A group known as Students for #USMfuture [flyer] has been protesting and recruiting more students to their cause since university administrators earlier this month announced program cuts and faculty layoffs.

The group was dealt a setback Thursday, when legislative leaders rejected a student-drafted bill, sponsored by independent [formerly Green] state Rep. Ben Chipman of Portland, which would have placed a one-year moratorium on the proposed cuts to allow a stakeholders group to review the university system's finances and suggest alternatives to the cuts.

Impressive, and even if the legislation failed, you can be sure an effort like that opened some eyes.

* * *

I’m thinking back to the the Printemps érable in Montreal, that NC covered back in 2012, where hundreds of thousands of students marched against a neo-liberal assault on public education in Quebec, that sought to raise tuition. However, #USMfuture is very different. First, Maine is not Montreal; if 250,000 were to march in Maine, as they did in Montreal, that would be about 20% of the population of the entire state, and four times the population of the city of Portland. Nevertheless, USM managed to reverse its cuts (so far), run a very successful national public relations campaign (Krugman; Chomsky; the Nation; Chronicle of Higher Education), and co-ordinate student protests, the Faculty Senate, the faculty union, and supporters statewide; getting legislation introduced is especially remarkable. Although much smaller, #USMfuture seems to reach deeper into all the institutions it encounters. So this is great stuff, and hopefully universities across the country, which all face similar assaults, can learn from them. Dirigo!

Oh, about the guns. Associate Professor of English and Women's Studies Lucinda Cole, Chronicle of Higher Education:

At the last three faculty meetings I attended at the University of Southern Maine, armed guards hovered outside the door or circulated through the rooms, hands moving to their hip holsters whenever faculty members raised their voices. Never before in my 25 years at USM had I witnessed such shows of state force against the faculty.

Guns, at a faculty meeting? Amazing. Readers, is such a thing happening in your state? I have to say that such nonsense is not unique to the university setting; an open meeting on the East-West Corridor featuring Cianbro chair Peter Vigue last year also had State police present, and people were checked at the door and forbidden to bring signs into the hall. This is how decaying regimes act as they spiral downwards toward a legitimacy crisis.

* * *

Organized opposition can work. I find this very hopeful. A Maine Spring? ‘Tis a consummation devoutly to be wished!

NOTE USM is still proposing to reduce 30 staff positions; I’m not sure how many of those positions are useful, like maintenance or food prep, and how many are not, like administrators, political appointees, etc. It does seem that cutting administrative positions is becoming a mainstream idea except, perhaps, among the administrators. Bangor Daily News:

[Cuts] are necessary and have the potential to be a good thing for USM, Portland and Maine.

However:

As USM economics professor Susan Feiner wrote last month in the Portland Press Herald, the university system's central office in Bangor spends the equivalent of about 10 percent of the universities' total state appropriation. This doesn't even include the administrative components at each of the seven university campuses.

Moreover, as Feiner writes, the share going to administration has increased every year for the past five years, while the share going to teaching has not. Even if we give the administration the benefit of the doubt and allow that, perhaps, some part of this increase reflects a system more complicated to manage, especially as it undergoes reorganization, redundancies and excess need to be cut from administration, too.

Yep. Give all these “leadership” types the old heave-ho and return the universities to their central mission of teaching and research; it would be a shame to see an institutional form that’s a thousand years old die because markets.

Gold at Major Inflection Point Ahead of Fed Beige Book- $1327 Key

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 02:00 AM PDT

dailyfx

Miners Index Charts Show Domed House and Three Peaks

Posted: 13 Apr 2014 01:26 AM PDT

Submitted by Trader MC, Cycles Expert & Market Timer (more about Trader MC):

The Miners Index has made a perfect Domed House and Three Peaks Chart Pattern. This pattern, discovered by a stock market analyst, George Lindsay, can be found in multiple timeframes. On the following charts you can see the model of the Lindsay's Domed House and Three Peaks Pattern, as well as the current chart of the Miners Index (HUI). You can notice that the HUI Index has made a perfect Domed House and Three Peaks Pattern during these last ten years.

On the right side of the HUI Patterns Big Picture chart you can see that the three peaks (3-5-7) were followed by two strong waves decline into point 10. This down move defined the "separating decline" as prices separate the Three Peaks from the rest of the formation. Point 10 returned to point 28 and prices rebounced strongly on the Symmetry Guide Line as they normally do.

You can also notice that the Domed House Pattern (275 weeks) lasted almost for exactly the same period as the Three Peaks Pattern (269 weeks). The Domed House and Three Peaks Pattern is now complete as final point 10 returns to points 28-1 level. I have been following this pattern for a long time and it is important to monitor such chart formation as it plays an important role in the market.

Domed House and 3 Peaks chart Pattern stocks

As you can see, both the Domed House and the Three Peaks Patterns have violent up moves, followed by strong reversals. In order to understand how the market works, it is important to keep in mind that all markets return to the mean. On the charts below you can see that the HUI Index, the Gold/XAU ratio and the SPX are far stretched from the 65 Monthly Moving Average. Every time it happened in the past, it generated a violent regression move which is a normal reaction for a market that has been too extreme. (I also included the Bonds and the Commodities charts as additional examples.) These charts are suggesting that odds favor an upside move for the Miners and a correction for the SPX Index on the intermediate term trend.

The next chart shows that the Gold/XAU ratio has reached its Base Pattern target and has a lot of downside potential. The vertical moves show how badly the Miners have performed to Gold these last two years. A regression to the mean may result in a violent down move and the Precious Metal stocks could strongly outperform the Gold Metal. As I explained in my previous article "Gold Projection by the Golden Ratio" I expect a turning point in Gold at the end of July or first week of August.

Here is another chart of the HUI Index where you can see that prices are between the two major parallel trend lines. The false breakdown last December looks like a bear trap and could have been a Multi-Year Cycle Low as it was late in the timing band for the HUI to print a Yearly Cycle Low. The lower blue trend line of the primary channel is still acting as a resistance and needs to be monitored closely. If prices go back into the blue channel, it would be a bullish sign for Miners.

Next is the Miners/Bonds ratio chart. You can see that the HUI/USB ratio rebounced on a strong support and broke out of a falling wedge. Miners are outperforming Bonds and I expect more and more investors to leave the Bonds sector and to come into Miners during the coming months.

It is also interesting to keep an eye on the HUI/SPX ratio chart. Once a breakout of the resistance trend line occurs, Miners will be more attractive for the investors than the SPX Index. The HUI/SPX ratio got rejected right on the resistance trend line last month but the next attempt could be a successful one.

Irrationally low prices are the greatest opportunities for the investors, as all markets return to the mean. For the moment, I think that we have a decent bottom in place but nobody can predict the markets with 100% accuracy as they are irrational and like to push things to the extreme. I therefore cannot rule out the possibility of one more down move in Miners – in order to bring extreme pessimism – but if it happens then I expect it to be very brief, as the regression to the mean forces should play out and that would result in a great buying opportunity.

Cycles and market timing research > more info.

Alasdair Macleod: Higher Silver Prices Likely to Trigger a Vicious Bear Squeeze!

Posted: 12 Apr 2014 09:01 PM PDT

Unlike gold, where Comex volume is moderate, silver volume is high indicating very strong support at current levels. The obvious conclusion is that bullion banks trying to balance their silver books cannot do so at current prices. Yet higher prices are likely to trigger a vicious bear squeeze, so it appears the bullion banks with [...]

The post Alasdair Macleod: Higher Silver Prices Likely to Trigger a Vicious Bear Squeeze! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Are Dimon & JPMorgan Throwing Blythe Masters Under the Bus?

Posted: 12 Apr 2014 07:52 PM PDT

The Doc & Eric Dubin are back for the Metals & Markets to discuss: Gold & silver capped by the cartel at $1300 & $22- is a big move on the horizon? The Dollar’s death by a thousand cuts suffers numerous flesh wounds as Russia prepares major oil deal with China The Doc updates listeners [...]

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LIVE STREAM: BLM vs. Cliven Bundy – SWAT Suits Up, En-Route

Posted: 12 Apr 2014 06:50 PM PDT

It appears that reports earlier Saturday that the confrontation between constitutional rights supporters of Cliven Bundy and the Feds had ended was a bit premature, as the latest reports indicate SWAT units have suited up and are en-route to the Bundy ranch. You can view the confrontation unfold LIVE below: Video streaming by Ustream

The post LIVE STREAM: BLM vs. Cliven Bundy – SWAT Suits Up, En-Route appeared first on Silver Doctors.

US stocks are overdue for more than a normal correction

Posted: 12 Apr 2014 05:02 PM PDT

Last week US stocks had their worst week for two years. Last year saw a 30 per cent spike. US stocks are overdue for more than a normal correction. Buying on the dips does not work forever.

The S&P 500 was down 2.6 per cent to 1,815 for the week, as the benchmark gauge lost its gains for the year. That’s already a spectacular slowdown from the spike of 2013.

Big falls

The Nasdaq slumped 3.1 per cent to 3,999 and the Russell 2000 dropped 3.6 per cent to 1,111. All three indexes showed the biggest retreat since June 2012.

The Dow Jones Index shed 385 points, or 2.4 per cent, to 16,026, its lowest level since February, after failing to confirm a bull-market breakout in Dow Theory (click here). However, there is still over 600 points to go before a bear-market is confirmed.

So far this looks like a bull market that has stalled. It will take a nasty shock to push the market into a full blown correction or crash. What could do that?

The crisis in Ukraine has not gone away and the sanctions imposed on Russia look set to backfire with gas supplies to Europe under threat. Russia could also destabilize the US dollar in response.

At the same time the economic contraction in Asia is gathering pace with Chinese exports down and the Japanese economy in a very bad place. Has the global economic cycle just turned down?

If so then stock markets will first sense a change – and perhaps that is why they are so lacklustre this year after the spikes of last year – and then make a decisive reaction and change direction.

That may be where we are going next. Traders who have bought the dips have become folk heros recently while long-term analysts who called the reversal too early look foolish.

Early calls

But eventually they will be proven right, as they always are in the long-run. No market goes up forever and they usually catch traders out. Not many of the world’s richest men are traders.

Volatile markets like we have witnessed over the past couple of months are also generally indicative of a market changing direction, however complacent its participants have become.

With tech stocks falling out of bed the momentum has gone out of the market and without that force it is hard to see what is out there to push share prices up again. The market has run out of new buyers. Watch it fall if it spots a black swan.

Dubai real estate remains very active but prices rises slow

Posted: 12 Apr 2014 04:41 PM PDT

The latest data from the Dubai property sector shows a very lively market with the volume of transactions reported by the Dubai Land Department up 11 per cent to 15,694 in Q1 year-on-year. But the huge leaps in house prices and rentals seen last year are over.

Leading estate agents Asteco last week reported apartment prices rose three per cent and villa prices by six per cent in Q1 against Q4.

Business high?

However, the overall value of real estate transactions hit a new post-2008 high, up 38 per cent to $16.6 billion, albeit around half of that was for mortgages.

The cash-only market that fueled the price market recovery from the depths of the 2009-2010 slump has made way for a market led by mortgage finance for owner-occupiers.

This is a maturing of the classic three-year property cycle that ArabianMoney has commented on previously, with this being year-three of a cycle that started at the end of August 2011 when Dubai World signed off its $25 billion debt rescheduling package.

However, there is nothing like the upcoming supply of property that helped to crash the market when the global financial crisis struck in late 2008. Jones Lang LaSalle forecasts 38,000 units in the pipeline now, far less than the 100,000-plus back then.

Quite apart from a natural market cycle where the number of buyers is gradually exhausted leading to a market correction, there are concerns over the state of the global economy.

If the recent shallow recovery continues then interest rates will gradually go up, and that is usually a bad thing for real estate. Should the recovery falter then the flow of money into property into open markets like Dubai will suffer.

Global economics

There could easily be a significant correction in Dubai real estate if the world economy gets into another financial crisis with a stock market correction precipitated say by a further geopolitical crisis in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia and a response that is very negative for the US dollar.

Always at the top of a real estate crisis optimism is at its highest and people are least prepared to consider the downside, even a modest one.

Certainly Dubai has done very well to win the 2020 Expo, but that is in 2020 and a correction after the initial hype would be quite normal.

Now That the U.S. and China Have Picked the Low-Hanging Fruit, Peak Everything Looms

Posted: 12 Apr 2014 01:30 PM PDT

Let’s call the strategy of picking all the low-hanging fruit in an economy Plan A: you know, expanding credit, lowering interest rates, building infrastructure, fueling speculative frenzies, all the good stuff that fans the flames of “growth.” Now that the central banks and political leadership of the U.S. and China have plucked all the low-hanging [...]

The post Now That the U.S. and China Have Picked the Low-Hanging Fruit, Peak Everything Looms appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Ten habits you should take up now to live to 100

Posted: 11 Apr 2014 02:00 PM PDT

One hundred years is a long time… but it's a birthday most of us would like to see. And the goal is to not just to reach 100… but to enjoy every one of those years.

Lifehack has put together 10 habits you should take up now to increase your odds at a long and prosperous life...

1. Workout. Be active.

Exercise is a vital factor in maintaining a healthy, happy life. Playing golf or tennis isn't just exercise… it's a way to stay social as well.

2. Love unconditionally

Relationships with friends and family are the things that will endure. You'll retire from work… your looks will fade… the stock market may be up or down. Maintaining a loving network will see you through when these other areas fade.

3. Embrace the changes age brings

Your body and mind will change… there's no getting around it. It's better to embrace the changes than fight it. There's something to be said for each wrinkle and silver hair.

4. Eat your vegetables

Food is a vital part of your life. If you care about your body… you care about what you put into it. You want to be constructive… and not destructive. Take care of your body… and your body will take care of you. A healthy diet is on the best ways to live to 100.

5. Sleep. Stay rested.

Sleeping regenerates your body. It protects against illness and fatigue. You'll prevent wear and tear on you body. We're all hard on our bodies… give it proper time to recover. Your body will thank you for it.

6. Play games

Playing games keeps your mind sharp… and gives you a competitive edge. These competitive juices will help keep your mind sharp. Try playing games requiring strategy like chess or monopoly.

7. Embrace new technology

The current technology age can be a lonely one. It seems everyone has their face buried in some computer screen. To maintain social contacts… embrace the latest technologies in smart phones and social websites. Don't get left in the cold. You'll enjoy your years to 100 much more with increased social contact… whether it's face-to-face or digital.

8. Listen to top-40 radio

Staying current with music is way to keep yourself open to new things. You should always leave room to evolve. By embracing this change, you'll be prepared for a new, exciting world that will be around for the foreseeable future.

9. Don't miss your doctor's appointments

Illness is compounding. Take care of the little things before they become big problems when you're older. Stay healthy now… and you'll 100-year-old self will thank you.

10. Travel

Along the lines of embracing change… learn to love adventure. Many things will change in your life… travel and experiencing new things prepares us to deal with those changes. Find things you love… and do them. The years you live until you reach 100 will be well-lived.

More "Wealth of Health:"

The eight best ways to naturally release pain-relieving endorphins

Six simple tips to fight forgetfulness

Read this BEFORE your next trip to the doctor. It could save you money... and your life.