Gold World News Flash |
- Stock Market Completely FAKE! U.S. Dollar at Stake
- The Obama Administration Wants Gun Owners To Wear RFID Tracking Bracelets
- Looking Closer at the Pork Market
- Thoughts from the Frontline: Every Central Bank for Itself
- Weekly Sentiment Report: Horrific? Hardly!
- Beta Earthquake
- Gold Jumps To 3-Week Highs, EUR Fades As Tensions Rise In Ukraine
- John Ing and Robert Fitzwilson interviewed by King World News
- Jim Rickards : The Coming Crisis is Bigger Than The Fed
- Silver Price Forecast 2014: Silver’s Ultimate Rally When Paper Assets Collapse
- Silver Price Forecast 2014: Silver’s Ultimate Rally When Paper Assets Collapse
- China’s Massive Gold Hoard & Global Flight From The Dollar
- Question Greenspan about gold at the New Orleans conference in October
- Michael Pento: HFT isn't top problem with U.S. markets; Fed's market rigging is
- Koos Jansen: Shanghai withdrawals falling but still above last year's
- Contrarian Value Investors Are Taking Large Positions In Gold And Miners
- Gold and Silver Flight To Safety
- Miners Index Charts Show Domed House and Three Peaks
| Stock Market Completely FAKE! U.S. Dollar at Stake Posted: 14 Apr 2014 12:35 AM PDT The market is unable to be predicted because the volatility has dramatically increased over the years. With the introduction of HFT, the market can be rigged to a level unseen before. The LIBOR scandal adds to what we already know.A domino effect will occur that will effect the whole world.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]  |
| The Obama Administration Wants Gun Owners To Wear RFID Tracking Bracelets Posted: 13 Apr 2014 11:00 PM PDT from Silver Doctors:
If Obama and Holder have their way, almost the entire country will eventually be unarmed. |
| Looking Closer at the Pork Market Posted: 13 Apr 2014 09:40 PM PDT from Dan Norcini:
I have to always laugh at the commentary coming out of gold community when the breathless remarks about flash crashes makes the rounds as if somehow such things are unique to only the gold market. Those who regularly trade the ag markets can vouchsafe for the sharp increases in volatility and extreme intraday swings in price that now, sadly, seem to be the new normal. |
| Thoughts from the Frontline: Every Central Bank for Itself Posted: 13 Apr 2014 09:00 PM PDT By John Mauldin , Gold Seek:
– Mike Tyson For the last 25 days I've been traveling in Argentina and South Africa, two countries whose economies can only be described as fragile, though for very different reasons. Emerging-market countries face a significantly different set of challenges than the developed world does. These challenges are compounded by the rather indifferent policies of developed-world central banks, which are (even if somewhat understandably) entirely self-centered. Argentina has brought its problems upon itself, but South Africa can somewhat justifiably express frustration at the developed world, which, as one emerging-market central bank leader suggests, is engaged in a covert currency war, one where the casualties are the result of unintended consequences. But the effects are nonetheless real if you're an emerging-market country. |
| Weekly Sentiment Report: Horrific? Hardly! Posted: 13 Apr 2014 07:25 PM PDT IntroductionIf you read the financial press, the market slide that has occurred over the past 3 weeks has been described as "huge", "horrific" and a "saga". Really? I am sure those who were buying the "Kool-aid" at the market highs feel that way, but the numbers tell a different story. REGISTER NOW! TACTICAL BETA is Completely FREE! |
| Posted: 13 Apr 2014 06:02 PM PDT Submitted by Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory "Beta Earthquake" One of the things I like to keep my eye on when I'm puzzling out what's going on in the market are the specific company factors that loosely define concepts like Momentum and Value. I do this because any sort of big market move, like we've seen over the past week, is inherently over-determined and over-explained. That is, there are dozens of "reasons" trotted out by the financial media and various experts, ALL of which are probably right to a certain degree. The trick is to see if you can identify an underlying explanation that both accounts for a large chunk of the various rationales AND distinguishes or predicts unexpected nuances between the rationales. Here's an example of what I mean. We all know that momentum-driven, high-beta stocks have been particularly slammed of late. Even as the overall market maintained its highs (until last Friday, anyway), particular sub-sectors like Internet stocks or biotech stocks have been crushed. What we'd like to know is whether this is somehow specific to a certain group of stocks – call them Momentum stocks – or whether these stocks are just the canary in the coal mine due to their high-beta nature for a more broadly based market dislocation. So let's not look just at Momentum factors over the year to date (which we know have been slammed), but also factors connected with Value and Quality. If high Value and high Quality stocks have done well as high Momentum stocks have done poorly, then there's no need to look deeper than that. Momentum is the culprit, and maybe this market trauma will be contained there. On the other hand, if there are weirdnesses or distinctions between the three broad categories, then something deeper is probably at work. For Value I'll use free cash flow (FCF) yield as a quick-and-dirty indicator of the concept, and for Quality I'll use cash flow return on invested capital (Cash ROIC). We can argue about alternative measures of these categories, and there's certainly some conceptual overlap between Value and Quality, but I think these are pretty well-acknowledged, if not standard, operationalizations of what Value and Quality mean. For both, I'll chart the isolated performance of each factor against the MSCI US large-cap universe. Again, maybe you'll get different results if you look at different universes of stocks or different operationalizations of Value and Quality. Knock yourself out. Here's the year-to-date performance chart for my Value factor, FCF yield:
Pretty much what you'd expect if the answer to our puzzle were simply: Momentum Is Bad. FCF yield turned on a dime the last week in February, just as Momentum stocks started to tank, and hasn't really looked back since. But here's the year-to-date performance chart for my Quality factor, cash flow ROIC:
Unlike Value, Quality did not turn up at all as Momentum collapsed. Instead, it has continued to drift down along with Momentum. What does this mean? What is an underlying explanation that can account for Momentum failing and Value working, but Quality NOT working? When one of my colleagues here at Salient saw these charts he said, "looks to me like the market is trading on a narrative of risk appetites and fear rather than toward some notion of seeking fundamentals or selling overbought growth stocks; otherwise Quality would be working, too." To which I replied, "Amen, brother!" The notion that this market sell-off is limited to biotech or Internet or some other high-flying sub-sector because the market "realized" that these stocks were too expensive or out of concern with earnings this quarter (both explanations that I've seen of late in the WSJ and FT), just doesn't hold water. These high-beta stocks are being hit hardest because they are at the epicenter of a broad market or beta earthquake. This is what it means to be high-beta… you live by the broad market sword and you die by the broad market sword. What's the source of this beta earthquake? What tectonic plate is shifting beneath our feet? Only the bedrock bull Narrative of the past five years – "the Fed has got your back." As I wrote last week, the Common Knowledge on Fed policy is starting to shift. The crowd is sniffing the air, sensing a change in the easing/tightening Narrative and acting on that by selling – and the less fundamentally-grounded the security the more furious the selling – just as they acted on prior market-positive shifts in the easing/tightening Narrative by buying – and the less fundamentally-grounded the security the more furious the buying. Anemic growth remains the Goldilocks scenario for markets, not so cold as to make for a recession but not so hot as to take the Fed out of play for "emergency" monetary policy implemented on a permanent basis. Good real-world news is bad for markets, and vice versa, because that's the dynamic that impacts Common Knowledge around the Fed. The market is in a tough spot right now, as good news will not make the market go higher (Fed stays on the tightening path) and bad news can make the market go lower if it's really bad news (or if the Fed gives more signals that they're tightening regardless of how bad the news gets). This tough spot is made even tougher by both a market fatigue with Fed jawboning (excuse me… communication policy) and a growing sense, fair or not, that the Yellen Fed is kind of flailing around right now. The dominant Narrative by a mile is still Central Bank Omnipotence, where the Fed is responsible for all market outcomes, but there are definitely signs of a growing counter-Narrative, one that I call "The Incompetent Magician", that bears close watching. The Incompetent Magician Narrative is a story that's very dangerous for markets, because it's a story of loss of control. This is what makes private sources of liquidity dry up, this is what makes for a deep bear market, and this is what would drive gold into the stratosphere. The Incompetent Magician Narrative has been around for decades, usually resting deep in the depths of counter-cultural media and the like, sort of like a flu virus that can lay dormant for years within an animal population. Over the past few weeks, though, I've seen a few outbreaks of this virus, or at least a strain of the virus, within mainstream media. Nothing to be concerned with yet, but like I say…something that bears watching. Please feel free to forward this email to whomever you think might be interested, and all prior notes are available on the Epsilon Theory website. If you're receiving this note via forwarded email and you're not yet on the direct distribution list (and you find it a worthwhile read), I'd appreciate the opportunity to add you to the list. I'm building the Adaptive Investing framework in plain sight and in real time through these notes, and I'd welcome the widest possible participation, as well as your thoughts and comments. As always, if you're no longer interested in receiving these notes, please reply to this email to that effect. |
| Gold Jumps To 3-Week Highs, EUR Fades As Tensions Rise In Ukraine Posted: 13 Apr 2014 05:51 PM PDT Early weakness in US equity futures was rescued when Asia opened and JPY was mysteriously bid but it's fading back now as the UN session escalates into he-YouTube'd-she-YouTube'd. The bigger moves on the night so far are gold (which jumped back over $1325 and 3-week highs) and EUR which fell around 40 pips to 1.3850. We suspect as Ukraine's red-line deadline draws near the bid for safe-havens may accelerate somewhat.
Chart: Bloomberg |
| John Ing and Robert Fitzwilson interviewed by King World News Posted: 13 Apr 2014 05:48 PM PDT 8:45p ET Sunday, April 13, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Market analyst John Ing tells King World News tonight that China's appetite for gold remains insatiable: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/4/13_Ch... And the Portola Group's Robert Fitzwilson tells KWN that there is great potential for turmoil in Saudi Arabia: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/4/13_Al... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Silver mining stock report for 2014 comes with 1-ounce silver round Future Money Trends is offering a special 18-page silver mining stock report about how to profit with the monetary and industrial metal in 2014, and it comes with a free 1-ounce silver round. Proceeds from the report's sales are shared with the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts to expose manipulation in the monetary metals markets. To learn about this report, please visit: Join GATA here: Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference Committee for Monetary Research and Education http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/ Canadian Investor Conference 2014 http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc... New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/new-orleans-investment-conference/home * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata |
| Jim Rickards : The Coming Crisis is Bigger Than The Fed Posted: 13 Apr 2014 05:02 PM PDT James Rickards, financier and author of the excellent cautionary best-seller Currency Wars, has recently released a follow-on book: The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System. In it, Jim details how history provides plenty of precedent for the collapse that has... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]  |
| Silver Price Forecast 2014: Silver’s Ultimate Rally When Paper Assets Collapse Posted: 13 Apr 2014 03:18 PM PDT Hubert Moolman |
| Silver Price Forecast 2014: Silver’s Ultimate Rally When Paper Assets Collapse Posted: 13 Apr 2014 02:06 PM PDT
The relationship between the Dow and silver has been very consistent over the last 100 years. After each of the major Dow peaks (real, not necessarily nominal peaks), we eventually had major bottom in silver. Above, is a 100-year inflation-adjusted Dow chart: |
| China’s Massive Gold Hoard & Global Flight From The Dollar Posted: 13 Apr 2014 11:04 AM PDT  Today Canadian legend John Ing spoke with King World News about China's massive gold hoard and global flight from the U.S. dollar. Ing, who has been in the business for 43 years, also discussed the remarkable amount of gold flowing into China and how China is moving to dominate the gold market. Below is what Ing had to say.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Question Greenspan about gold at the New Orleans conference in October Posted: 13 Apr 2014 08:29 AM PDT 11:36a ET Friday, April 13, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: The greatest failure of financial journalism and investment fund management long has been the failure to put specific questions to central banks about their surreptitious interventions in the markets, their market rigging. But participants at this October's New Orleans Investment Conference may have an opportunity to start correcting that failure. Astounding as it seems, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has agreed to speak at the conference and to take questions from the audience, including questions about gold. Of course there is no guarantee that Greenspan will answer the questions, or answer them honestly, rather than claim some obligation to protect the secrecy of Federal Reserve operations or deflect questions to the U.S. Treasury Department, whose Exchange Stabilization Fund is explicitly authorized by federal law to trade secretly not only in gold but also in any foreign currencies and "other instruments of credit and securities": http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-inde... But even if Greenspan was evasive, the inability to get straight answers about government policy and practices from a former chairman of the Federal Reserve would be telling. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Jim Sinclair to hold gold market seminar in Toronto on April 26 Mining entrepreneur and gold advocate Jim Sinclair's next gold market seminar will be held from 1 to 5 p.m. Saturday, April 26, at the Pearson Hotel & Conference Centre at Toronto's Pearson International Airport, 240 Belfield Road, Toronto. For details on tickets, please visit Sinclair's Internet site, JSMineSet.com, here: http://www.jsmineset.com/2014/04/01/toronto-qa-session-announced/ Of course with his testimony to Congress in July 1998 Greenspan famously acknowledged that the purpose of gold leasing by central banks was not what they usually claimed -- to earn a little income on a supposedly dead asset -- but to suppress the monetary metal's price: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htm GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and your secretary/treasurer will be among the speakers at the conference and our questions will be submitted to Greenspan. Attend and your questions can be submitted to him too. In any case the New Orleans Investment Conference may be the most comprehensive financial conference in North America if not the world. It runs for four days, has a hugely diverse range of speakers, and takes place in a spectacularly scenic and fun environment, a port city with renowned restaurants. Already scheduled to speak at this year's conference are GATA favorities Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, Sprott Asset Management's Rick Rule, Euro-Pacific Capital's Peter Schiff, and Charles Krauthammer, probably the most brilliant newspaper columnist in the United States. The conference again will be held at the beautiful Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel adjacent to the famous Riverwalk and just a few blocks from Jackson Square and the French Quarter. More information about the conference, including registration, can be found at the conference's Internet site here: https://jeffersoncompanies.com/new-orleans-investment-conference/home CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Join GATA here: Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference Committee for Monetary Research and Education http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/ Canadian Investor Conference 2014 http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc... New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/new-orleans-investment-conference/home * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| Michael Pento: HFT isn't top problem with U.S. markets; Fed's market rigging is Posted: 13 Apr 2014 07:28 AM PDT 10:25a ET Sunday, April 13, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: The big problem in U.S. markets isn't the skimming done by high-frequency trading but the rigging of interest rates and equity prices accomplished by the Federal Reserve, fund manager Michael Pento tells King World News: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/4/12_Th... Former Assistant U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts tells KWN of another problem with U.S. markets -- that all financial regulatory agencies are corrupt: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/4/12_Pa... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference Committee for Monetary Research and Education http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/ Canadian Investor Conference 2014 http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Silver mining stock report for 2014 comes with 1-ounce silver round Future Money Trends is offering a special 18-page silver mining stock report about how to profit with the monetary and industrial metal in 2014, and it comes with a free 1-ounce silver round. Proceeds from the report's sales are shared with the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts to expose manipulation in the monetary metals markets. To learn about this report, please visit: |
| Koos Jansen: Shanghai withdrawals falling but still above last year's Posted: 13 Apr 2014 07:20 AM PDT 10:20a ET Sunday, April 13, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Weekly withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange have been declining for five weeks but remain above withdrawals for the same period last year, gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen reports at his Internet site, In Gold We Trust: http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/weekly-sge-withdrawals-dropping-ytd-585-mt CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy precious metals free of value-added tax throughout Europe Europe Silver Bullion is a fast-growing dealer sourcing its products from renowned mints, refiners, and distributors. Because of a legal loophole that will close soon, you can acquire the world's most popular bullion coins free of value-added tax throughout the European Union. You can collect your order in person at our headquarters in Tallinn, Estonia, or have it delivered in any of the 28 EU countries. Europe Silver Bullion is owned and operated by North American and European experts in selling, storing, and transporting precious metals. We have an extensive product inventory of silver, gold, platinum, and palladium, and our network spans the world. Visit us at www.europesilverbullion.com. Join GATA here: Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference Committee for Monetary Research and Education http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/ Canadian Investor Conference 2014 http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Safe and Private Allocated Bullion Storage In Singapore Given the increasing risks in financial markets, it is more important than ever to own physical bullion coins and bars and to store them in the safest vaults in the world in the safest jurisdictions in the world. Gold advocates Jim Sinclair and Marc Faber have recommended Singapore. Now, with GoldCore, you can own coins and bars in fully insured, segregated, and allocated accounts in Singapore with the ability to take delivery. Learn more by downloading GoldCore's Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore: http://info.goldcore.com/essential-guide-to-storing-gold-in-singapore And for more information call Daniel or Sharon at +44 203 0869200 in the United Kingdom or at +1-302-635-1160 in the United States. Or email them at info@goldcore.com. |
| Contrarian Value Investors Are Taking Large Positions In Gold And Miners Posted: 13 Apr 2014 04:25 AM PDT In his latest Gold Investment Letter, John Hathaway, Portfolio Manager and Senior Managing Director at Tocqueville Asset Management, writes that chances are high that the bottom is in for precious metals and miners. He admits not being 100% sure, rightly so, as it is impossible to predict a final bottom. The point is that all signs point to a lasting bottom and brewing strength in precious metals. The most interesting statement in the investor letter, at least in our view, is the observation that tontrarian value investors are entering the precious metals market, both the metals and miners. That is a signficant evolution, and the most important sign of strength. Hathaway explains the rationale behind it:
Supply and demand continue to be robust. It should translate in higher gold prices going forward. At the supply side, miners are not likely to embark upon news programs of mine construction at current prices. Therefore, Hathaway believes that mine supply will shrink in the years ahead, especially after 2015. This is what he sees in the demand side:
Hathaway discusses the gold market structure which he believes is likely to change in 2014:
Last but not least, gold mining companies, in response to the difficult conditions of the past two years, have cut costs and committed to returning capital to shareholders.
Gold Monitor – 50 gold related charts for Q1 2014From his gold monitor, a collection of 50 charts directly and indirectly related to gold, we have picked out the ones we believe are showing a significant trend. The full document is embedded below. Real rates in US and Europe versus the gold price in dollars and euros:
Central bank balance sheets for the major Western economies (left) and M2 in the US vs the gold price:
Sentiment towards gold clearly came off a bottom in Q1 2014:
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| Gold and Silver Flight To Safety Posted: 13 Apr 2014 01:30 AM PDT The miners continued to get pounded along with tech momentum stocks as this week turned out badly for equities overall. Gold is still outperforming silver, and has the taste of a minor 'flight to safety' in the price action. The Comex warehouses continue to be a foggy snoozer, and stopped contracts are a formidable percentage of the deliverable gold category. |
| Miners Index Charts Show Domed House and Three Peaks Posted: 13 Apr 2014 01:26 AM PDT Submitted by Trader MC, Cycles Expert & Market Timer (more about Trader MC): The Miners Index has made a perfect Domed House and Three Peaks Chart Pattern. This pattern, discovered by a stock market analyst, George Lindsay, can be found in multiple timeframes. On the following charts you can see the model of the Lindsay's Domed House and Three Peaks Pattern, as well as the current chart of the Miners Index (HUI). You can notice that the HUI Index has made a perfect Domed House and Three Peaks Pattern during these last ten years. On the right side of the HUI Patterns Big Picture chart you can see that the three peaks (3-5-7) were followed by two strong waves decline into point 10. This down move defined the "separating decline" as prices separate the Three Peaks from the rest of the formation. Point 10 returned to point 28 and prices rebounced strongly on the Symmetry Guide Line as they normally do. You can also notice that the Domed House Pattern (275 weeks) lasted almost for exactly the same period as the Three Peaks Pattern (269 weeks). The Domed House and Three Peaks Pattern is now complete as final point 10 returns to points 28-1 level. I have been following this pattern for a long time and it is important to monitor such chart formation as it plays an important role in the market.
As you can see, both the Domed House and the Three Peaks Patterns have violent up moves, followed by strong reversals. In order to understand how the market works, it is important to keep in mind that all markets return to the mean. On the charts below you can see that the HUI Index, the Gold/XAU ratio and the SPX are far stretched from the 65 Monthly Moving Average. Every time it happened in the past, it generated a violent regression move which is a normal reaction for a market that has been too extreme. (I also included the Bonds and the Commodities charts as additional examples.) These charts are suggesting that odds favor an upside move for the Miners and a correction for the SPX Index on the intermediate term trend.
The next chart shows that the Gold/XAU ratio has reached its Base Pattern target and has a lot of downside potential. The vertical moves show how badly the Miners have performed to Gold these last two years. A regression to the mean may result in a violent down move and the Precious Metal stocks could strongly outperform the Gold Metal. As I explained in my previous article "Gold Projection by the Golden Ratio" I expect a turning point in Gold at the end of July or first week of August.
Here is another chart of the HUI Index where you can see that prices are between the two major parallel trend lines. The false breakdown last December looks like a bear trap and could have been a Multi-Year Cycle Low as it was late in the timing band for the HUI to print a Yearly Cycle Low. The lower blue trend line of the primary channel is still acting as a resistance and needs to be monitored closely. If prices go back into the blue channel, it would be a bullish sign for Miners.
Next is the Miners/Bonds ratio chart. You can see that the HUI/USB ratio rebounced on a strong support and broke out of a falling wedge. Miners are outperforming Bonds and I expect more and more investors to leave the Bonds sector and to come into Miners during the coming months.
It is also interesting to keep an eye on the HUI/SPX ratio chart. Once a breakout of the resistance trend line occurs, Miners will be more attractive for the investors than the SPX Index. The HUI/SPX ratio got rejected right on the resistance trend line last month but the next attempt could be a successful one.
Irrationally low prices are the greatest opportunities for the investors, as all markets return to the mean. For the moment, I think that we have a decent bottom in place but nobody can predict the markets with 100% accuracy as they are irrational and like to push things to the extreme. I therefore cannot rule out the possibility of one more down move in Miners – in order to bring extreme pessimism – but if it happens then I expect it to be very brief, as the regression to the mean forces should play out and that would result in a great buying opportunity. Cycles and market timing research > more info. |
Attorney General Eric Holder says that gun owners in the United States could eventually be forced to wear RFID tracking bracelets. In fact, in recent testimony in front of Congress he gave the impression that
Not that long ago I sent up a post about the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report issued by the folks over at the USDA. I took issue with some of that data as it conflicted with their own weekly slaughter data. Whether that is here or there no longer matters in terms of the futures market reaction because ultimately, the markets always have the last word on these things.
"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face."
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