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Monday, April 28, 2014

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


James Turk -- They're Not Going to be Able to Save the System This Time Around

Posted: 28 Apr 2014 12:57 AM PDT

When the spot price of gold is higher than the future price, it's a rare occurrence called "backwardation." James Turk from GoldMoney.com says, "The weird thing that has happened and it's never happened in history, when the gold price was driven down last year to its lows in June 2013, gold...

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Buy Signal in the PM Sector

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 11:05 PM PDT

Read the Latest News About: Gold    Silver    Economy    Central Banking It looks like gold and silver stocks bottomed on Monday, April 21,...

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Paul Craig Roberts says: U.S. Gold Gone! - YouTube

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 11:00 PM PDT

Charleston Voice

Guide: Pathogenesis & Change Factors

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 09:40 PM PDT

by Jim Willie, SilverBearCafe.com:

Systemic failure and its pathogenesis have been over 50 years in progress, with countless events. The origin is found with the cabal murder Kennedy, but the climax finale will be found with the Saudi Petro-Dollar rejection and the arrival of Eastern gold-backed currencies. The pathogenesis is fierce, vicious, multi-faceted, coordinated, enforced, unstoppable, destructive, vile, with many unfortunate aspects and facades. The extreme vulnerability of the financial crime syndicate can finally be seen, the symptoms obvious.

If somebody had asked Greenspan in 1995 whether the day would ever come when the US Federal Reserve would install Zero Interest Policy and keep the 0% rate in place indefinitely, then install Quantitative Easing and keep the bond monetization in place permanently, approximately 0% of the experts would say the day would arrive.

Read More @ SilverBearCafe.com

Brand New “Smart Money” Now Betting On Gold & Silver Sector

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 09:00 PM PDT

from KingWorldNews:

I've been in this place several times before in my career, where you are coming out of a bear market into a bull market. What's fantastic for me is being part of the Sprott organization, I have the financial resources and the human resources, and the reputation resources to take advantage of it.

I guess the bad news is that at age 61 I am being pulled in more directions than normal. The good news is I know just how much fun the next five or six years are going to be. So I have absolutely no trepidation about any part of the market I'm in, which is a truly spectacular place to be.

Rick Rule Continues @ KingWorldNews.com

Piketty Is Rickety On Government Complicity

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 08:27 PM PDT

French economist Thomas Piketty’s book on inequality – Capital in the Twenty-First Century – has gone completely viral.

Mainstream economists like Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz endorse it.   So does Economist magazine.  The Financial Times and New York magazine both call him a ”rock star economist”.

Slate notes:

While recently passing through D.C., he took a little time to meet with Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, the Council of Economic Advisers, and the IMF. Even Morning Joe, never exactly on the leading edge of ideas journalism, ran a segment about Capital Tuesday morning.

Is Piketty right or wrong about inequality, its causes and the prescription for addressing inequality?

Piketty Is Right about Inequality

We noted in 2010 that extreme inequality helped cause the Great Depression … and the 2008 financial crisis.  We noted in 2011 that inequality helped cause the fall of the Roman Empire.

In a few short years, mainstream economists have gone from assuming that inequality doesn’t matter, to realizing that runaway inequality cripples the economy.

Pikettey correctly notes that inequality is now the worst in world history … and will only get worse.

Asset Prices Rise Faster than Wages

Piketty argues that the main cause for inequality is that the rate of return on capital – land, natural resources, stocks, bonds and other assets – is far higher than the growth rate of the economy:

Because the growth rate is much slower than the rate of profit from holding capital assets, the asset-holders’ wealth increases much faster than the wealth of workers. In other words, working stiffs can’t keep up with those who make their money from investing in (and seeking rent from) land, stocks, bonds and other assets.

Piketty – a rigorous data researcher – is probably right that this is one of the main causes of inequality.

Government and Central Bank Policy Is What Is Making Assets Soar and the Economy Sink

But Piketty underplays the fact that bad government and central bank policy have greatly widened the gap between growth rate. After all, Fed chairman Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Geithner and chief economist Summer’s entire strategy was to artificially prop up asset prices – including the stock market – and see this, this, this and this.

At the same time, government policy has harmed the general economy, caused unemployment and hurt the average American.

Indeed, real wages have actually plummeted since 1969, and most of the new jobs that have been created are part times jobs with no benefit.

In other words, bad government and central bank policy have made the rate of return on capital much higher … but lowered wages.  As such, bad policy is the core cause of the recent increase in inequality.

Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz said in 2009 that the government’s toxic asset plan – a scheme to inflate the value of assets held by banks – “amounts to robbery of the American people”.

Bailouts Feather the Nests of the Fatcats, While Doing Nothing for the Average American

The American government’s top official in charge of the bank bailouts writes:

Americans should lose faith in their government. They should deplore the captured politicians and regulators who distributed tax dollars to the banks without insisting that they be accountable. The American people should be revolted by a financial system that rewards failure and protects those who drove it to the point of collapse and will undoubtedly do so again.

 

Only with this appropriate and justified rage can we hope for the type of reform that will one day break our system free from the corrupting grasp of the megabanks.

What’s he talking about?

Well, the Fed threw money at “several billionaires and tens of multi-millionaires”, including billionaire businessman H. Wayne Huizenga, billionaire Michael Dell of Dell computer, billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson, billionaire private equity honcho J. Christopher Flowers, and the wife of Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack

And the bank bailouts weren’t a one-time thing in 2008.  The government has been – continuously and massively – been bailout out the big banks for the last 6 years.

Indeed, virtually all of the banks profits comes from government bailouts.  A top banking analyst estimates that subsidies to the giant banks exceeds $780 billion dollars each year.

A study of 124 banking crises by the International Monetary Fund found that bailing out banks which are only pretending to be solvent  – like most of the big American banksharms the economy.  So growth is slowed, while the richest fatcat bankers rake in the dough.

Indeed, the bailout money is just going to line the pockets of the wealthy, instead of helping to stabilize the economy or even the companies receiving the bailouts:

  • A lot of the bailout money is going to the failing companies’ shareholders
  • Indeed, a leading progressive economist says that the true purpose of the bank rescue plans is “a massive redistribution of wealth to the bank shareholders and their top executives”

(Top economists, financial experts and bankers say that the big banks are too large … and their very size is threatening the economy. They say we need to break up the big banks to stabilize the economy.

If we stop bailing out the Wall Street welfare queens, the big banks would focus more on traditional lending and less on speculative casino gambling. Indeed, if we break up the big banks, it will increase the ability of smaller banks to make loans to Main Street, which will level the playing field.

We’re all for forcibly breaking them up. But we don’t even have to use government power to break up the banks … the big banks would fail on their own if the government just stopped bailing them out.)

QE: the Greatest Wealth Transfer in History

It’s been known for some time that quantitative easing (QE) increases inequality (and see this and this.)  Many economists have said that QE quantitative easing benefits the rich, and hurts the little guy.   3 academic studies – and the architect of Japan’s quantitative easing program – all say that QE isn’t helping the American economy.

The Federal Reserve official responsible for implementing $1.25 trillion of quantitative easing has confirmed that QE is just a massive bailout for the rich:

I can only say: I’m sorry, America. As a former Federal Reserve official, I was responsible for executing the centerpiece program of the Fed’s first plunge into the bond-buying experiment known as quantitative easing. The central bank continues to spin QE as a tool for helping Main Street. But I’ve come to recognize the program for what it really is: the greatest backdoor Wall Street bailout of all time.

 

***

 

Trading for the first round of QE ended on March 31, 2010. The final results confirmed that, while there had been only trivial relief for Main Street, the U.S. central bank’s bond purchases had been an absolute coup for Wall Street. The banks hadn’t just benefited from the lower cost of making loans. They’d also enjoyed huge capital gains on the rising values of their securities holdings and fat commissions from brokering most of the Fed’s QE transactions. Wall Street had experienced its most profitable year ever in 2009, and 2010 was starting off in much the same way.

 

You’d think the Fed would have finally stopped to question the wisdom of QE. Think again. Only a few months later—after a 14% drop in the U.S. stock market and renewed weakening in the banking sector—the Fed announced a new round of bond buying: QE2. Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, immediately called the decision “clueless.”

 

That was when I realized the Fed had lost any remaining ability to think independently from Wall Street.

Even the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said that Fed’s Fisher said that “QE was a massive gift intended to boost wealth.”

Billionaires have admitted that they are the beneficiaries of QE. For example, billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller said the following about QE:

This is fantastic for every rich person,” he said Thursday, a day after the Fed’s stunning decision to delay tightening its monetary policy. “This is the biggest redistribution of wealth from the middle class and the poor to the rich ever.

 

“Who owns assets—the rich, the billionaires. You think Warren Buffett hates this stuff? You think I hate this stuff? I had a very good day yesterday.”

 

Druckenmiller, whose net worth is estimated at more than $2 billion, said that the implication of the Fed’s policy is that the rich will spend their wealth and create jobs—essentially betting on “trickle-down economics.”

 

“I mean, maybe this trickle-down monetary policy that gives money to billionaires and hopefully we go spend it is going to work,” he said. “But it hasn’t worked for five years.”

And Donald Trump said:

“People like me will benefit from this.”

Economics professor Randall Wray writes:

Thieves … took over the whole economy and the political system lock, stock, and

Hong Kong and Shanghai exchanges plan gold and silver alliance

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 08:23 PM PDT

Cities' gold and silver exchanges to start talks on deal for tie-up, allowing mainland bourse access to international market through Hong Kong

The Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society will soon kick off talks with the Shanghai Gold Exchange for a potential alliance, the president of the local gold bourse told the South China Morning Post.

This will mark another potential tie-up

Gold rose fast in recent years and will do so again soon, von Greyerz tells KWN

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 06:22 PM PDT

9:20p ET Sunday, April 27, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

While the gold sector couldn't be more demoralized, Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz today tells King World News that the gold price can rise very quickly and indeed did rise very quickly in recent years, and he expects it to rise quickly again. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the KWN blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/4/27_Mi...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Join GATA here:

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Saturday, May 31, 2014

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Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
Union League Club, New York City
Thursday, May 22, 2014

http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/

Canadian Investor Conference 2014
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Sunday and Monday, June 1 and 2, 2014

http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc...

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 22-25, 2014
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New Orleans, Louisiana

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/new-orleans-investment-conference/home

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Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

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Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

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Lars Schall interviews Bill Kaye about gold suppression and the aftermath

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 06:17 PM PDT

9:15p ET Sunday, April 27, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

On behalf of Matterhorn Asset Management's Gold Switzerland Internet site, financial journalist Lars Schall interviews Hong Kong-based fund manager William S. Kaye about the objectives of gold price suppression by Western central banks and, upon its failure, the likely transition into a new world financial system. The interview is 38 minutes long and can be viewed at Gold Switzerland here:

http://goldswitzerland.com/gold-price-rigging-allows-continuation-of-fla...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Join GATA here:

Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference
AT&T Performing Arts Center
Margot and Bill Winspear Opera House
2403 Flora St., Dallas, Texas
Saturday, May 31, 2014

http://stansberrydallas.com/

Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
Union League Club, New York City
Thursday, May 22, 2014

http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/

Canadian Investor Conference 2014
Vancouver Convention Centre West
1055 Canada Place, Vancouver, British Columbia
Sunday and Monday, June 1 and 2, 2014

http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc...

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 22-25, 2014
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/new-orleans-investment-conference/home

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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U.S. Justice Department raises stakes in forex probe

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 05:13 PM PDT

By Caroline Binham and Kara Scannell
Financial Times, London
Sunday, April 27, 2014

U.S. criminal prosecutors have flown to London to question individuals as part of their probe into the alleged rigging of foreign exchange rates in a sign that the stakes are getting higher for the traders involved in the sprawling probe.

The Department of Justice, in its first significant move since announcing in October that it would investigate alleged manipulation of the $5.3 trillion forex market, invited several UK-based currency traders "on the periphery" of the investigation to attend voluntary interviews in London rather than the U.S., according to three people familiar with the department's tactics. The UK financial regulator also requested attending the interviews.

The first wave of interviews took place in London at the beginning of the year but more are planned, the people said. ...

... For the full story:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d6abe8be-cdff-11e3-bc28-00144feabdc0.html



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Jim Sinclair to hold gold market seminar in Toronto on April 26

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http://www.jsmineset.com/2014/04/01/toronto-qa-session-announced/



Join GATA here:

Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference
AT&T Performing Arts Center
Margot and Bill Winspear Opera House
2403 Flora St., Dallas, Texas
Saturday, May 31, 2014

http://stansberrydallas.com/

Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
Union League Club, New York City
Thursday, May 22, 2014

http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/

Canadian Investor Conference 2014
Vancouver Convention Centre West
1055 Canada Place, Vancouver, British Columbia
Sunday and Monday, June 1 and 2, 2014

http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc...

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 22-25, 2014
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/new-orleans-investment-conference/home

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

In The News Today

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 05:06 PM PDT

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. –Ludwig von Mises  ... Read more »

The post In The News Today appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

The Quest To Freeze "Putin's Billions"

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 04:49 PM PDT

Just over a month ago, in the latest round of sanctions against Russia, and specifically Putin's inner circle of advisors and lieutenants, one person was singled out - Gennady Timchenko, part-owner of the Gunvor Group commodities trading company, the fourth largest oil trader in the world with over $90 billion in 2013 revenues.

This name was particularly notable because as part of the justification for adding Timchenko to the list of sanctioned oligarchs, the US Treasury said that "Putin has investments in Gunvor and may have access to Gunvor funds." This is curious because in 2008 The Economist also linked Putin to Timchenko. Timchenko promptly sued but later dropped the case, and The Economist issued a statement. "We accept Gunvor's assurances that neither Vladimir Putin nor any other senior Russian political figures have any ownership in Gunvor."

Yet somehow, despite the repeated denials that Putin has a direct or indirect interest in the massive oil trading company, the Treasury department apparently knows better. As the NYT reports, "Seth Thomas Pietras, Gunvor's corporate affairs director, said Mr. Putin "does not and never has had any ownership, direct, indirect or otherwise, in Gunvor," nor is he "a beneficiary of Gunvor," and "he has no access to Gunvor's funds." After the sanctions statement, Gunvor executives flew to Washington to meet with State Department officials and congressional aides. "We're providing evidence but have not seen any sort of evidence from them yet and don't know if we ever will," Mr. Pietras said. He said the company's banking partners had been satisfied by its explanations.

The Treasury Department, however, was not. "We remain confident that the information on the relationship between Putin and Gunvor is accurate," said a Treasury official, who asked not to be identified in a public dispute with the company."

Still, whether or not Putin has a stake in Gunvor is of secondary importance - what matters is that tomorrow, as part of yet another round of sanctions by the US Treasury, among those likely to be on Monday's list, are Igor Sechin, president of the Rosneft state oil company, and Aleksei Miller, head of the Gazprom state energy giant.

Which brings us to the topic of this post, namely the quest for Putin's billions.

Because if there was anything the Gunvor sanction escalation showed, is that the US is not afraid of going those who are in the Putin circle of not only trust but, certainly, money. To be sure, so far the American government has not imposed sanctions on Putin himself, and according to the NYT, officials said they would not in the short term, reasoning that personally targeting a head of state would amount to a "nuclear" escalation, as several put it. But that doesn't mean the Treasury can't go after those who are nearest to Putin, both in terms of power, and certainly money.

The problem, as the US is starting to realize, is that those alleged billions that Russia's leader may (or may not) have access to are quite difficult to track down. There is much speculation and conjecture, but the facts are still rather slim. Here is what is known:

For years, the suspicion that Mr. Putin has a secret fortune has intrigued scholars, industry analysts, opposition figures, journalists and intelligence agencies but defied their efforts to uncover it. Numbers are thrown around suggesting that Mr. Putin may control $40 billion or even $70 billion, in theory making him the richest head of state in world history.

 

For all the rumors and speculation, though, there has been little if any hard evidence, and Gunvor has adamantly denied any financial ties to Mr. Putin and repeated that denial on Friday.

The US may not be sure just where Putin's billions are buried preventing a laser-guided strategy, but that just means it will engage in a shotgun approach and slam all those financiers and oligarchs who are closest to Putin - even those whose goodwill is so critical to keep Russian gas flowing to Germany and the UK.

"It's like standing in a circle and all of a sudden everyone in the circle is getting a bomb thrown on them, and you get the message that it's getting close," said Senator Robert Menendez, Democrat of New Jersey, the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, describing at a recent hearing the way the sanctions are getting closer to Mr. Putin.

Still, this does beg the question - is Putin really a billionaire? Officially, of course not.

Mr. Putin's reported income for 2013 was just $102,000, according to a Kremlin statement this month. Over the years, he has crudely dismissed suggestions of personal wealth. "I have seen some papers about this," he said at a news conference in 2008. "Just gossip that's not worth discussing. It's simply rubbish. They picked everything out of someone's nose and smeared it on their little papers."

 

How much Mr. Putin cares about money has long been a subject of debate both in Russia and in the West. On government payrolls since his days in the K.G.B., the Soviet intelligence agency, Mr. Putin to many seemed driven more by power and nationalism than by material gain. With access to government perks like palaces, planes and luxury cars, he seemingly has little need for personal wealth.

 

"If he really does have all that money salted away somewhere, why?" asked Bruce K. Misamore, who was the chief financial officer of Yukos Oil before the Russian government imprisoned its top shareholder, Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky, seized its assets and gave many of them to Mr. Sechin's Rosneft. "What good does it do him? Is it just ego? Presumably, it's not to pass it down to heirs. I doubt we'll see Mr. Putin becoming one of the leading philanthropists in the world."

Philanthropist, no. But if indeed Putin has highly confidential access to up to $70 billion, that would probably make him the wealthiest person on earth. And thus most influential.

Still, with no hard numbers and org charts highlight Putin's equity stakes and bank accounts around there world, there is mostly speculation:

The C.I.A. in 2007 produced a secret assessment of Mr. Putin's wealth that has never been released, according to officials who have read it. The assessment, the officials said, largely tracked with assertions later made publicly by a Russian political analyst who said Mr. Putin effectively controlled holdings in Gunvor, Gazprom and Surgutneftegaz that added up to about $40 billion at the time.

 

... the assessment roughly mirrored estimates made publicly at the end of that year by Stanislav Belkovsky, a Russian political analyst with ties to the Kremlin whose public attack on oligarchs several years earlier had presaged the arrest and prosecution of Mr. Khodorkovsky of Yukos.

 

Mr. Belkovsky told European newspapers in December 2007 that Mr. Putin had amassed a fortune of "at least" $40 billion through sizable shares of some of Russia's largest energy companies. Mr. Putin secretly controlled "at least 75 percent" of Gunvor, 4.5 percent of Gazprom and 37 percent of Surgutneftegaz, Mr. Belkovsky said, citing only unnamed Kremlin insiders.

 

"The reality is that Putin has others and entities to move money that he controls or that he might control ultimately," said Mr. Zarate, the former Bush adviser. "The challenge with him is you don't have an easy way of drawing the line to the assets he actually owns and controls currently. There's a dimension of layering and relationships with people with whom he's close and entities that serve as conduits that make it tricky to determine what is Putin's and what is not."

Then, there is the indirect way of estimating Putin's wealth:

In 2010, Sergei Kolesnikov, a businessman, published an open letter saying he had helped Mr. Putin secretly build a billion-dollar palace on the Black Sea. The Kremlin dismissed his claims as "absurd." In 2012, Boris Y. Nemtsov, an opposition leader, released a report detailing the presidential perks at Mr. Putin's disposal, including 20 residences, 15 helicopters, four yachts and 43 aircraft.

Indirect estimates, however, always leave much to be desired:

some hunting for Mr. Putin's private wealth have found obstacles. Last month, Cambridge University Press declined to publish a book by its longtime author Karen Dawisha, a Miami University professor, exploring how Mr. Putin built "a kleptocratic and authoritarian regime in Russia." The publisher wrote her saying it had "no reason to doubt the veracity" of her book, but deemed the risk of a lawsuit too high, according to letters published by The Economist. In a return letter, Ms. Dawisha called the decision "pre-emptive book burning."

Which brings us back to Gunvor, which is sternly denying any relationship with Putin, even as the US Treasury openly rejected this explanation, with its explicit language.

Did Putin have some or all of his billions at the Cyprus-based company? Perhaps, but the cross holdings are so well-hidden not even the NSA likely knows who owns what. Indicating the complexity of Russian-oligarch org charts, here is just a "simple" summary of what Gunvor's stakeholder Timchenko owned, via Bloomberg:

The majority of Timchenko's net worth was derived from his 44 percent stake in Cyprus-based oil trader Gunvor Group, which he sold to partner Torbjorn Tornqvist on March 19, 2014, ahead of U.S. economic sanctions. Through Volga Group, his Luxembourg-based investment vehicle, he also holds 23 percent stake in publicly traded Novatek, Russia's second-largest natural gas producer; a 31.5 percent stake in petrochemical company Sibur; and 80 percent of rail company Transoil. 

 

He owns Sibur through the holding company Sibur Ltd. with billionaire partner Leonid Mikhelson. The pair acquired the company from Gazprombank, the lending affiliate of state-controlled energy company Gazprom, in 2010 and 2011. The investment cost is calculated using the value stated by Gazprombank in December 2010, when it sold the first 25 percent for $1.3 billion. He also has an 80 percent stake in Russian construction company Stroytransgaz, which is valued using the average price-to-sales and price-to-book value multiples of three publicly traded peers: Mostotrest, Budimex and Polimex-Mostostal. 

 

Through Volga, Timchenko holds stakes in publicly traded Rorvik Timber and Russian Sea Group, a fish farm and seafood processing company, as well as 8 percent of Bank Rossia, 12.5 percent of insurance company Sogaz, 49.1 percent of insurance company Sovag and 30 percent of coal mining company Kolmar. Gunvor holds another 30 percent of Kolmar.

 

Through A-group, the billionaire controls 70 percent of Avia Group, which develops ground infrastructure for the business aviation center at Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport, Avia Group Nord, which provides business-aviation services for flights out of Saint Petersburg's Pulkovo international airport, and a 99 stake in private jet operator Airfix Aviation. He also controls Finland's Hartwall Areena along with billionaire partners Boris and Arkady Rotenberg.

Confused yet? Here is more on the ties between the commodity magnate and the Russian president from a 2008 FT profile:

...many wonder whether Gunvor's rapid expansion over the past five years – just as the Kremlin has moved in on private oil production – is due to more than just vision. The company has "one very good friend," a former partner says. "He is at the very top level," says another.

 

Some have speculated whether there are ties that bind Gunvor's other co-founder, Gennady Timchenko, and Vladimir Putin, Russia's president from 2000 until last week. As the company emerges from obscurity, some details of the connections between the two are finally becoming clear. The company claims that it has not benefited from any political favours. 

 

The company's rise provides a glimpse into a secretive clique of businessmen close to Mr Putin who have made immense fortunes under his presidency but have so far stayed far away from public scrutiny. Even as Mr Putin completes a stage-managed transfer to the role of prime minister, installing his hand-picked successor, Dmitry Medvedev, as president, they are finding it increasingly hard to escape the spotlight. This year, Mr Timchenko for the first time made it on to the Forbes rich list with an estimated fortune of $2.5bn.

 

In a scanty paper trail, corporate records from St Petersburg show Mr Timchenko and a committee headed by Mr Putin participated in one business in the early 1990s. Bankers say the company, Golden Gates, was established to build an oil terminal at St Petersburg's port but foundered in a clash with organised crime.

 

Mr Timchenko's trading company, meanwhile, was a beneficiary of a large export quota under a scandal-tainted oil-for-food scheme set up by Mr Putin when he worked as head of the city administration's foreign economic relations committee in 1991, local parliament records show. The trader also built close ties with Surgutneftegaz, a Kremlin-loyal oil company, inviting speculation he may have built a significant stake there.

Keep in mind, this is just one billionaire in Putin's entourage: consider the spaghetti chart of cross-holdings, ownerships and stakes if one charts Putin with all his closest oligarchs. As for those who ended up "less than close" with Putin, just Google Khodorkovsky.

And somehow the Treasury is supposed to keep tabs on all such relationships and track stakeholder interests which in all likelihood were defined only by a verbal arrangement? Of course, it isn't.

Which is why in tomorrow's round of sanctions, the US Treasury will most likely push further and, as rumored, may go as far as the two most powerful men in Russia (behind Putin of course) - the heads of Rosneft and Gazprom.

Will Jack Lew's department finally sink a battleship in its shotgun approach to isolating the financial pawns, knights, bishops and rooks in Putin's chessgame? And if so, what happens if suddenly Putin realizes that the US financial trap may be getting warmer and warmer, and even the nuclear option is being contemplated. Will that be enough to force the former KGB spy to backtrack after over 2 months of opportunities to do just that? Somehow we doubt it, and in fact it will likely accelerate the Russian offensive both in the Ukraine and elsewhere around the world.

If nothing else, though, in a few more months of escalating sanctions of those most near and dear to Putin, if not Putin himself, the world may finally have its first official glimpse of what and where are "Putin's billions."

Why Housing Has Stalled — And Why Everything Else Will Follow

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 03:31 PM PDT

It’s not easy being a mainstream economist. You spend your life building models that become your professional identity. And when those models fail to describe and predict reality, you’re left wondering about the meaning of it all.

The latest case in point is US housing. Keynesian economic models say that if you lower mortgage rates you get more houses bought, sold and built. A nice, simple piece of cause and effect. But today’s mortgage rates are at levels that would have incited a buying frenzy a generation ago, employment is rising — yet home sales, home building and mortgage originations are all flat-lining.

Zero Hedge and Automatic Earth recently posted good discussions of the current state of the housing market. See:

Economists Stunned By Housing Fade

US Housing is Down For the Count

Both articles conclude that housing is weak and getting weaker. But the real question is what this means for the rest of the economy. Is housing a discrete sector dealing with its own supply/demand issues, or is it a sign of things to come for consumer spending, government tax revenues, and business investment?

The argument for the latter scenario is based on the idea that newly-created currency pouring into the financial system pumps up asset prices, which convinces people that they’re rich enough to indulge in new cars, new clothes and nice vacations — and more stocks, bonds and houses.

But this “wealth effect” only works when the amount of debt in the system is low enough for new paper profits to change behavior. If people already carry too much debt, then they don’t feel comfortable borrowing, even at historically low interest rates, and asset prices become harder and harder to support. Either they stall or start moving lower, which shifts the wealth effect into reverse and sucks the air out of the economy.

The reason why most economic models didn’t see housing rolling over and don’t think it will affect the rest of the system in any event is that most Keynesian models don’t pay attention to society’s balance sheet. A given amount of new debt is supposed to increase “aggregate demand” by the same amount whether the government and consumers are debt-free or buried under a mountain of obligations taken on in years past. The fact that debt levels, especially student loans, are hitting records probably explains why housing isn’t behaving according to script.

The other fuel for a wealth effect-driven boom is the stock market. Here again, a nice pop has coincided with a big jump in margin debt, which investors take on when they borrow against stocks to buy more stocks. Late last year margin debt hit a new record and since then has gone even higher. Now it’s at levels that, based on history, imply less bang for each new borrowed dollar. Going forward it will be harder for investors to generate big returns by borrowing money and buying more equities. Taking profits will begin to seem more and more prudent, until sellers swamp buyers and the markets correct.

Margin debt 2014

Click here for a great explanation of why pretty much every stock market valuation measure is now flashing either yellow or red, from John Hussman.

Assuming that equities plateau or start falling, what does that do mean for government’s strategy of using asset bubbles to pump up the consumer economy? Probably it derails it. The question is when.

Hussman notes that periods of extreme overvaluation like today are good indicators of low average stock market returns over the next decade, but not necessarily great trading signals. Stocks might get more overvalued before they stop. But that would raise the risk of a crash, which would have an even more serious impact on investor psyches. So either way, this year or next, the wealth effect will become the poverty effect, and asset owners will become asset sellers.

Military Wars, Economic Wars, Currency Wars & $10,000 Gold

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 03:00 PM PDT

Today a 42-year market veteran warned King World News that the world now faces military wars, economic wars and currency wars. He also believes this could easily lead to $10,000 gold and included an important chart. Below is what Egon von Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, had to say.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

The Canadian Housing Bubble Puts Even The US To Shame

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 02:32 PM PDT

Since the bursting of the first US housing bubble in 2007, one of the primary explicit goals of the Fed has been to reflate the very same housing bubble (whose pop, together with the credit bubble, nearly wiped out the western financial system) as housing, far more than stocks, is instrumental to the "wealth effect" of the broader population (as opposed to just the 1%).

Sadly for the Fed, instead of recovering previous highs, median housing prices (not to be confused with the ultraluxury high end where prices have never been higher) have stagnated and are now in the downward phase of the fourth consecutive dead cat bounce, curiously matching a like amount of Fed monetary injection episodes.

But while the Fed has clearly had a problem with reflating the broader housing bubble, one which would impact the middle class instead of just those who are already wealthier than ever before thanks to the Russel 200,000, one place which not only never suffered a housing bubble pop in the 2006-2008 years, but never looked back as it continued its diagonal 'bottom left to top right' trajectory is Canada. As the chart below shows, the Canadian housing bubble has put all attempts at listening to Krugman and reflating yet another bubble to shame.

Here is the Globe and Mail's take:

The gap between the average price of a home in Canada and the United States widened to a record level in the first quarter of this year, contrary to what economists would have expected, according to Bank of Montreal's chief economist Doug Porter.

 

Average Canadian home prices were 66 per cent above average U.S. prices during the first three months of this year, he says. (Note: these are prices for existing houses and condos, not those that are newly constructed).

 

"The main takeaway is that, contrary to all expectations, the Canadian housing market has just kept on rolling in 2014 even as the U.S. housing market has  paused for breath (after a steep climb out of the dungeon)," he writes in a research note. "Put it this way, how many pundits a year ago were calling for Canadian home prices to rise faster than their U.S. counterparts in any single measure?"

 

It's worth noting that there are many problems with comparing average Canadian home prices to average U.S. home prices, not the least of which is that average prices themselves can be highly misleading. Mr. Porter is aware that it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.

 

"Some may quibble that this doesn't take the exchange rate into account, but even adjusting for the Canadian dollar leaves a 50 per cent price gap," he writes.

So if indeed the Fed is intent on reflating the housing bubble for all, not just for some, perhaps it is time to take a look at what the northern neighbor is doing and do the same.  Of course, the question remains how much more "up and to the right" movement is left in Canadian home prices, where the Chinese and Russian oligarch bid is, according to some, an even greater factor in setting marginal prices than in the US and Hong Kong.

Chinese Trump Russians As Manhattan's Top Apartment Buyers

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 01:40 PM PDT

With Canada having closed the door on the cash-for-canadian-citizenship housing bubble blowing machine, it seems the Russian oligarch sanctions have left a gaping window for the Chinese to swoop and spend their billions. As Reuters reports, for the first time in history, wealthy Chinese top wealthy Russians are the biggest buyers of Manhattan real estate. It seems Manhattan real estate will always be home to some desperate capital flow, money-laundering 1%-ers cash - no matter what the price.

 

 

It wasn't so long ago that Russian oligarchs dominated the world of real estate, buying status-heavy apartments like the $88 million dollar Robert A.M. Stern penthouse. Now, Russian activity in the real estate market has dropped off since the unrest in Ukraine, and the U.S. imposing sanctions on Russia.

The time is right for the Chinese to buy, according to real estate brokers at Douglas Elliman Real Estate.

 

"...there is a lot of ease up on the visa coming to visit in the United States and as well as the rise of the middle class wanting to establish their American dream..."

"In our own business we're seeing almost a 50 percent of an increase compared to five years ago. I mean Chinese is a culture that we love to have tangible assets and real estate being one of them. So this is something that's not just in New York. We just like to buy real estate." The current hot commodity for Chinese buyers in the Big Apple is Central Park's One57. Here, they can spend $18.85 million for a three-bedroom or $55 million for an apartment taking up the entire 81st floor. The building comes with all of the amenities of a five-star hotel.

The Secret Silver Stockpile, Part II

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 11:34 AM PDT

In the first part of this commentary, readers were presented with the context which leads us to believe that there is (must be) a "secret stockpile" of silver, and that the holders of (the vast majority of) this stockpile are the ultra-powerful (industrial) Silver Users, allies of (if not tentacles of) the One Bank.

We know this because the crash in silver inventories between 1990 – 2005 meant we were on a collision-course with inventory default nearly a decade ago. Since that time; silver demand has intensified, while continued price-suppression has led to only anemic growth in mine-supply. These parameters for imminent inventory default have only been hidden by a massive (and clumsy) falsification of inventories.

We know the silver is still being consumed, in industry, in jewelry, and in record quantities of minted (legal tender) silver coins. We know that nearly a decade ago there was no longer enough silver remaining in inventories to satisfy that demand, while the supply-deficit in the silver market persists. Ipso facto, there must be "a secret stockpile" feeding silver into the bankers' depleted warehouses – and delaying (not preventing) the inevitable default ahead of us.

Thus the purpose of making readers/investors aware of this secret stockpile is not to discourage or daunt them that this stockpile means that the One Bank's manipulation games in the silver market can be perpetuated forever (or at least into the distant future). Rather, the purpose of this piece is to explain why we haven't already seen "inventory default", or simply the collapse of the silver market.

Obviously the two most-important variables here are the size of this stockpile, and the "burn rate" (the rate at which this stockpile is dissipating). With respect to the size of the stockpile; for convenience, let's assume that this corresponds to Ted Butler's estimated "global stockpile" (about 1 billion ounces).

Recall the definition of a stockpile: the amount of silver in existence which may come onto the market at some (undetermined) higher price level. With regard to any reserves of silver held by non-Western governments; with silver becoming a "rare earth" metal itself (to quote a quip from Butler), it's safe to assume that any such stockpiles would not be coming onto the international market – at any price.

With respect to our own holdings of silver; we converted our wealth from paper to metal to escape the bankers' fraudulent (and effectively worthless) paper currencies. It's safe to say that for these "strong hands" still holding onto their silver that this silver will also not be coming onto the market – as long as it can only be converted back into this same, fraudulent paper.

This means that deeming all the world's "stockpile" of silver to be held by the Silver Users is, at worst, only a small fiction. We have no way of precisely verifying this quantity, and we recognize that Mr. Butler's estimate was (of necessity) a rough approximation. Thus we accept that there is some considerable (upward) latitude as to the size of this stockpile.

We can now safely assume (in hindsight) that there is no downward latitude of Butler's estimate of a 1 billion ounce global stockpile, because if there was, it would have already been exhausted – and the global silver market would have already collapsed. This becomes apparent once we look at the real burn-rate of stockpiles.

Stalin, Hitler And The 5-Year Plans Of Banksters

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 09:50 AM PDT

The 2008-2013 Plan Stalin's infamous five-year plans started with a “trial version” in late 1928. By “trial version” this meant his plans already included show trials of political enemies with frequent death sentences. Designed and executed for Hitler, the German banker Hjalmar Schacht's five-year plan of 1934-1938 directly applied Keynesian “remedies” for the economy and public finances. Schacht's plan was called a “groundbreaking fiscal stimulus program”, creating work by rebuilding the nation’s worn infrastructures, jettisoning the gold standard, imposing capital controls, and increasing State debt, after “diluting” the State's previous debt.

The Cost of Code Red - Speculative Bubbles

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 09:46 AM PDT

(It is especially important to read the opening quotes this week. They set up the theme in the proper context.)  â€œThere is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” â€" Ludwig von Mises

Stock Market Bubble Phase: Gold Capitulation Follow Up

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 09:16 AM PDT

At the beginning of the month I theorized that stocks were about to enter a final bubble phase, and that during that process gold should deliver a capitulation phase to end the three year bear market. This is a follow up to see how things are playing out now that we have another months' worth of price action behind us. For stocks it still remains to be seen whether or not they have one more surge higher into a final top. If one just looks at the NASDAQ it would appear that stocks have begun moving down into a bear market. However as I pointed out in my previous article it's not unusual to have one, and sometimes two very severe corrections before a final leg up in a ending bubble phase. As I pointed out in my previous article the NASDAQ had two back-to-back 10% corrections before a final 34% surge into that 2000 top.

Gold And Silver Prospects From A Russian Point of View

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 08:51 AM PDT

One of the biggest problems for the West, the US in particular, is its increasingly parochial perspective from the narrowest of lenses, fully colored by the elite's use of its main propaganda machine, the Maintstream Media. It will not work for people to expect more from their government, rather, people have to demand and expect more from themselves, for in the end, people will discover all they really had to rely upon was themselves and failed to do so.

Gold Bounces Back Above $1,300 as Ukraine Crisis Escalates

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 08:32 AM PDT

John Kerry and other U.S. officials and once again banging the war drums. In the most recent comments, Kerry said that the United States is “ready to act against Russia.” The truth is that the U.S. has been acting against Russia for quite some time in various ways. The implication here is that the U.S. government is now ready to act militarily, however subtly it may have been stated. To get an idea of just how quickly the conflict has been escalating, here are some of the headlines from the past week alone:

Illuminati 2014 Predictions!! We must reach mass awareness!

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 08:03 AM PDT

We have a pending economic collapse, a 17 trillion dollar economic collapse. Obama used his "executive orders" to bypass congress and issued a police state to be started after such a catastrophe. The government has also purchased 1.6 BILLION rounds of hollow points. That's the biggest ammo purchase...

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The Weekend Update is Now Available

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 06:27 AM PDT

The latest issue of the Iacono Research Weekend Update has been posted to the website and is now available for subscribers here. There will be four changes to the model portfolio as detailed in the first discussion topic below along with commentary on gold stocks and tech stocks in the second topic: Adding More Stocks and Bonds [...]

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