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Sunday, April 27, 2014

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The Secret Silver Stockpile, Part II

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 11:34 AM PDT

In the first part of this commentary, readers were presented with the context which leads us to believe that there is (must be) a "secret stockpile" of silver, and that the holders of (the vast majority of) this stockpile are the ultra-powerful (industrial) Silver Users, allies of (if not tentacles of) the One Bank.

We know this because the crash in silver inventories between 1990 – 2005 meant we were on a collision-course with inventory default nearly a decade ago. Since that time; silver demand has intensified, while continued price-suppression has led to only anemic growth in mine-supply. These parameters for imminent inventory default have only been hidden by a massive (and clumsy) falsification of inventories.

We know the silver is still being consumed, in industry, in jewelry, and in record quantities of minted (legal tender) silver coins. We know that nearly a decade ago there was no longer enough silver remaining in inventories to satisfy that demand, while the supply-deficit in the silver market persists. Ipso facto, there must be "a secret stockpile" feeding silver into the bankers' depleted warehouses – and delaying (not preventing) the inevitable default ahead of us.

Thus the purpose of making readers/investors aware of this secret stockpile is not to discourage or daunt them that this stockpile means that the One Bank's manipulation games in the silver market can be perpetuated forever (or at least into the distant future). Rather, the purpose of this piece is to explain why we haven't already seen "inventory default", or simply the collapse of the silver market.

Obviously the two most-important variables here are the size of this stockpile, and the "burn rate" (the rate at which this stockpile is dissipating). With respect to the size of the stockpile; for convenience, let's assume that this corresponds to Ted Butler's estimated "global stockpile" (about 1 billion ounces).

Recall the definition of a stockpile: the amount of silver in existence which may come onto the market at some (undetermined) higher price level. With regard to any reserves of silver held by non-Western governments; with silver becoming a "rare earth" metal itself (to quote a quip from Butler), it's safe to assume that any such stockpiles would not be coming onto the international market – at any price.

With respect to our own holdings of silver; we converted our wealth from paper to metal to escape the bankers' fraudulent (and effectively worthless) paper currencies. It's safe to say that for these "strong hands" still holding onto their silver that this silver will also not be coming onto the market – as long as it can only be converted back into this same, fraudulent paper.

This means that deeming all the world's "stockpile" of silver to be held by the Silver Users is, at worst, only a small fiction. We have no way of precisely verifying this quantity, and we recognize that Mr. Butler's estimate was (of necessity) a rough approximation. Thus we accept that there is some considerable (upward) latitude as to the size of this stockpile.

We can now safely assume (in hindsight) that there is no downward latitude of Butler's estimate of a 1 billion ounce global stockpile, because if there was, it would have already been exhausted – and the global silver market would have already collapsed. This becomes apparent once we look at the real burn-rate of stockpiles.

Why Freeport-McMoRan's Stock Is A Long-Term Investment Opportunity Right Now

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 08:49 AM PDT

After beating analysts' expectations by 11.6% in its first-quarter 2014 earnings report, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.'s (FCX) stock has shown some small gain. Freeport-McMoRan's stock price has significantly declined since the beginning of the year, as copper and gold prices dropped, but it is now showing some strength, gaining 11% since March 13. However, I consider FCX's stock as a good combination of value and growth in a high-yielding dividend stock, and in my opinion, after the retreat in its stock price, it is now an excellent opportunity for a long-term investment in a good company at a cheap price.

The Company

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold is the world's second largest copper producer and a major producer of gold and molybdenum. The company is also a small oil and gas producer in the U.S. Freeport-McMoRan has mines in Indonesia, North America, South America and Africa. The company was founded

Take Heed And Hedge: Firming Gold And Precious Metals' Price Action

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 07:09 AM PDT

Take Heed and Hedge: The Gold and Precious Metals [PM] Price Action

Gold's macro long-term value can be debated ad nauseam, but for now, it looks like the safe haven that may actually make sense in the near to intermediate term. I for one am not a gold bug, but I do like to buy assets after a dip or downturn, and with gold down substantially lower from its long-term highs, and now recently finding some support on some intermediate charts due to war fears, it may be an effective hedge.

Reason number One: Captain Obvious - Geopolitical

Gold as a traditional safe haven now looks intriguing considering Russia's leader Vladimir Putin's' newfound fondness for adventurism. Anyone who thinks he stops at the Ukraine's former Crimea region is fooling themselves. He knows the risks, but he wishes to unite at least eastern Ukraine's Russian-speaking regions (and possibly beyond) to

A Nice Rebound For Gold, But Will It Last?

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 06:52 AM PDT

Precious metals rebounded late in the week after hitting their lowest levels in two-and-a-half months. This change in direction was the result of renewed safe haven demand following another outbreak of violence in the Ukraine. A slightly weaker U.S. dollar over the course of the week and tumbling equity markets on Friday also provided support to metal prices as investors moved money out of risk assets and into defensive positions. This fresh buying led to key technical support levels being successfully tested for gold and silver, causing many short sellers to close out their positions.

In the wake of controversial reports earlier in the month about gold being used for collateral in China's shadow banking system, gold demand in China continued to be a hot topic for precious metals markets. Meanwhile, gold ETF outflows continued for the fourth straight week, an indication of ongoing sour sentiment toward the metal by

Gold Trend Momentum Is Bullish

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 05:05 AM PDT

investing

Silver Prepares To Rally... Along With Gold

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 05:00 AM PDT

investing

Has Gold Finally Bottomed (And Is The Next Bull Leg Beginning)?

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 05:00 AM PDT

investing

GOLD / OIL CHART: Gold still looks cheap

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 05:00 AM PDT

moneyweek

Gold Rally At Risk Ahead of Key US Event Risk- Bearish Sub $1327

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 04:55 AM PDT

dailyfx

Bees & Bears, Psychopaths and TFAs

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 04:36 AM PDT

Predator and Prey, Emotion and Emotionless, that's what matters in the world of Gold Trading

read more

“The market thinks silver should be higher.”

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 04:05 AM PDT

Going for a song!

Going for a song!

Traders Bet Silver Streak to End With Gold on Inflation

"The market thinks silver should be higher," said Michael Purves, chief global strategist at Weeden & Co. in Greenwich, Connecticut. "The options market is telling you there's a decent floor at $19 here. And if you are short silver right now, you are heavily exposed to a short squeeze as well."

Huge bets in the options markets on silver at $30 by January 2015. Next biggest options action at $40. What are you betting on?

Links 4/27/14

Posted: 27 Apr 2014 03:55 AM PDT

‘My Little Pony’ Voice Actress Never Thought She’d Be Partying With ‘Bronies’ HuffPo

As Parents Make Their Own Baby Food, Industry Tries to Adapt Times

How to Enjoy Nature Without Getting Yourself Eaten Gizmodo

President Obama Demanded Concessions from Prime Minister Abe on Free Trade Deal Based on Approval Ratings over $300 Sushi Dinner, Says Japanese Tabloid Exskf (MJ). “”It is difficult to be on the same wavelength with him.” I think that’s Japanese for “I didn’t say ‘No.’ I said ‘Hell, no.’”

Japan, U.S. tiptoe into new phase of Pacific trade talks Reuters

Courting Asia: China's Maritime Silk Route vs America's Pivot The Diplomat

TPP Investment Map: New Privileges for 30,000 Companies? Public Citizen. Handy map. Check your county, and call your Congress critter!

First Thoughts on Piketty Greg Mankiw’s Blog

Taking On Adam Smith (and Karl Marx) Times. Sounds awfully Third Way-ish. Bonus for terrific photo of Thomas Piketty gazing skyward, rather like Dear Leader looking to the future.

Paul Krugman and the Economics Fringe Dean Baker, CEPR

More Effective Remedies for Inequality than Piketty's Steve Keen

Why Nations Can't Resist Austerity Ian Welsh

A Walmart Fortune, Spreading Charter Schools Times. Hiring scabs from Teach for America, among much else.

Scathing Report Finds Rocketship, School Privatization Hurt Poor Kids Truthout

Climate change report was watered down says senior economist FT

Payroll Gains Show U.S. Emerging From Slowdown: Global Economy Bloomberg

More Tornado Strikes May Occur in Mobile Home Parks; Weekend Plains Tornado Outbreak? Weather Underground

U.S. electricity prices may be going up for good LA Times

The EIA is seriously exaggerating shale gas production in its drilling productivity report Resilience

Paper trail for Pa. shale waste leads to ex-IBM site in NY Official dismisses DEP record of cuttings shipped upstate Shale Gas Review

Energy Journal: Fukushima "an ongoing crisis… an international issue, its important we all keep our eye on it… we owe it to the Pacific" — Nuclear fuel dropped into sub-basement and melted through some concrete, no one can get in to see where it is now (AUDIO) ENENews (full audio).

Chernobyl – how many died? Ecologist

Ukraine

Ukraine: Media Obfuscate About “OSCE Observers” Moon of Alabama. [Gaah, linked to Guardian's "Ukraine: pro-Russian separatists hold European military observers captive" yesterday. --lambert]

Europeans detained in Ukraine, raising stakes WaPo

173rd conducts unscheduled training with Lithuania Army US Army

Joint Chiefs chairman describes talk with Russians AP

Financial War Bloomberg

Clinton, Warren and a tale of two book titles WaPo

Mass. appeal The Economist. Where’s the beef?

What if the tea party decides to walk away from the GOP in 2016? It could happen. WaPo

Cliven Bundy Accidentally Explained What's Wrong With the Republican Party Times

ObamaCare

ObamaCare enrollment extended again The Hill. For the Pre-Existing Conditions Plan.

Patients paying more up front for care Atlanta Journal-Constitution

New York Will Keep Affordable Care Act Health Plans Restricted Times. Narrow networks stay narrow.

Do Physicians’ Financial Incentives Affect Medical Treatment and Patient Health? American Economic Review. Nothing tendentious about all the current Medicare stories, nothing at all.

Transparency is here, and it's hunting season on doctors KevinMD

Reaping rewards for medical product innovation PNHP

Big Brother Is Watching You Watch

Let’s call him BACKTRACK Obama Cannonfire. The most transparent administration in history and FOIA.

Where Was Anal Rape Approved in the OLC Memos? empty wheel

Passover Greetings from the Editor The Intercept. #JustSaying

FIFA's Valcke Urges Qatar Probe Result Before Brazil World Cup Bloomberg

Spain: The Land Where Incipient Deflation Becomes Good News For Headline GDP Fistful of Euros

Palestinian unity government will recognize Israel: Abbas Reuters

Turkey expands secret service powers BBC

Hope, cynicism and Jokowi in a Jakarta slum New Mandala

How Scientific Inquiry Works Dublin Review of Books

One Startup's Struggle to Survive the Silicon Valley Gold Rush Wired

Chidiock Tichborne: The End Tom Clark (BDR)

Antidote du jour:

tigers

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

Gold price rigging allows continuation of flawed policies

Posted: 26 Apr 2014 11:37 PM PDT

Matterhorn AM

New mortgage rules and foreigners exiting London will finally derail the 18-year UK housing boom

Posted: 26 Apr 2014 10:19 PM PDT

A new study from the Wrigglesworth Consultancy showing how UK buy-to-let housing has beaten all other asset classes over the past 18 years, except perhaps gold, is another classic top-of-the-market indicator. Pride cometh before a fall. All markets are cyclical, and 18 years is a long time for an upcycle though hardly unknown and ripe for a heavy correction.

Two black swans have just appeared on the radar for UK housing: A package of tough new rules for mortgage lending from the new Financial Conduct Authority that will deny millions of potential buyers a mortgage and remortgages for many existing owners; and there are crises in Russia and China that will stem the flood of foreign buyers into the UK capital that has also been causing waves in the provinces as London homeowners sell out.

Price spike!

Prices in London are arguably in need of a bucket of cold water as they have risen by 18 per cent over the past year, a typical market topping spike. Smart money has been running away from previous boom markets that are now in a near terminal phase like China and arguably Russia as its Ukrainian adventure aggrevates its recession this year. That flow of funds is drying up.

When it stops there will be a reverse back into these foreign markets to take advantage of depressed prices from their collapse. But what sort of prices will these foreigners selling back to UK buyers be able to command when new mortgage rules are now making it much harder for Britons to raise mortgage finance?

The FCA regulations are a model of prudency and have been taken up with a gusto by the lending sector. Mortgage approvals have already started to decline. Figures published by the British Bankers' Association showed approvals in March reached a four-month low.

Average UK house price rose to £253,000 in February, up nine per cent over the previous 12 months, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics with most regions now seeing strong year-on-year growth in property prices. In England prices are now higher than the pre-financial crisis peak of January 2008. London has seen the fastest growth and the average home in UK capital now costs £458,000, up 18 per cent in the year to February.

Housing bubble

Spot the housing bubble triggered by a cock-eyed government scheme called ‘Help to Buy’ for those with only five per cent as a deposit. The new rules are a draconian reversal.

Lenders are assessing borrowers’ lifestyles and asking how often they eat out or whether they have to pay for parking or like holidays abroad. They are also imposing stress tests to make sure borrowers can cope with a big leap in mortgage rates. This does not only apply to new borrowers. Existing mortgage holders face the same tests if they want to move house or re-mortgage. Many will now be stuck and effectively unable to move.

Two black swans at the same time are probably too much for even the vertically-inclined British housing market to survive. House prices could tumble a lot more than the 20 per cent of the global financial crisis this time around.

Inside Good Delivery Gold Refining

Posted: 26 Apr 2014 09:43 PM PDT

Bullion Vault

PM Fund Manager: Wall St Smuggled Massive Amount of GLD Gold into India!

Posted: 26 Apr 2014 09:01 PM PDT

PM Fund Manager: Wall St Smuggled Massive Amount of GLD Gold into India!

In this interview with Wall St for Main St, former Wall St bond trader, real estate market expert and gold fund manager Dave Kranzler discusses the real estate market “recovery.” Kranzler reveals some juicy tidbits about the gold market including how there’s evidence that Wall St smuggled a HUGE amount of gold from GLD into India [...]

The post PM Fund Manager: Wall St Smuggled Massive Amount of GLD Gold into India! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Why gold will be the unexpected winner in the Ukraine catastrophe

Posted: 26 Apr 2014 08:43 PM PDT

The catastrophe for financial markets now unfolding in the Ukraine will have a very positive upside for gold. If Russia invades eastern Ukraine this week what price will gold be by next weekend? $1,350? $1,400? Or much higher?

Only on Friday did the penny begin to drop on Wall Street in the final hours of trading. If the Russians have been orchestrating this crisis right from the start, what is their end-game? Are the 40,000 troops massing as close as a kilometre to the border just there for window dressing? Why do things keep getting worse on the ground in Ukraine?

Phased escalation

Over the weekend so far we have seen further violent clashes between the Ukrainian forces and the Russian-led separatist groups. One of these groups has taken 13 international observers hostage of whom one apparently urgently requires medical attention. Who is giving the orders to these groups? Think a little bit.

What is happening is an escalation that will require a Russian military intervention to ’save’ the situation. Conveniently the forces just happen to be standing by. Another pathetic round of Western sanctions next week will be ignored. But round three of the sanctions will be more significant, particularly from the US side which believes it has less to lose than the Europeans.

Stock markets will fall and bond prices rise as this series of events unfolds. The US dollar will weaken and the yen and Swiss franc gain. That will add to the pressure on Western leaders to stand aside and let Russia deal with problems in its own backyard, nevermind the inconvenient truth that they are of its own making. However, the response will not be entirely without teeth and that invites a Russian response.

Russian response

Will Russia decide to dump its US treasuries? Do they have a more sophisticated response if the US blocks them out of global financial markets? Who knows. It is called uncertainty and fear, the two things that financial markets dislike most.

In such a climate precious metals can be the only winner in a flight to a safe haven without a counter-party and the dollar out of favour. But there has been a huge dislocation in the gold market over the past year with the massive sell-off in gold ETFs and the transportation of that gold to China. When those sellers want that gold back it won’t be there and so the price will go up.

Russia has also been a big buyer of gold in recent years. You could almost think that somebody knew something that we didn’t know. Gold has become tremendously oversold recently and will come bouncing back as other financial markets tank.

If you reckon that is wrong then you are saying stocks will advance to new all-time highs in the most serious geopolitical clash since the end of communism. Can you really be right? Look how gold went up when stocks went down in January.

Stocks Bubble Phase: Gold Capitulation Follow Up

Posted: 26 Apr 2014 08:32 PM PDT

Gold Scents

Jim Willie: The Climax Finale of the Petro-Dollar to Arrive in 2014!

Posted: 26 Apr 2014 07:30 PM PDT

Jim Willie: The Climax Finale of the Petro-Dollar to Arrive in 2014!

Some significant events are extremely likely to occur soon, which will change the American and Western landscape permanently. The confidence in the system will vanish quickly. The gold investors will be given a bolstered hope and much encouragement. The changes will hit like a storm, slow at first, the process already having begun. The storm [...]

The post Jim Willie: The Climax Finale of the Petro-Dollar to Arrive in 2014! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

The Blueprint to Ending the Fed!

Posted: 26 Apr 2014 05:25 PM PDT

The Blueprint to Ending the Fed!

Congressional candidate Dennis Linthicum joins Metals & Markets to discuss the blueprint to ending the Fed, as well as: CME announces plans to launch a PHYSICALLY SETTLED gold exchange in Asia Russian media reporting that Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus will sign an agreement in May to accelerate the formation of an economic union and a joint “gold” currency: the [...]

The post The Blueprint to Ending the Fed! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Interviewed by Alternative Investors Hangout

Posted: 26 Apr 2014 04:35 PM PDT

In this interview we comment on the bottoming process in precious metals as well as the potential topping process going on in the stock market and the Nasdaq.

 

The post Interviewed by Alternative Investors Hangout appeared first on The Daily Gold.

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