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- Can't-miss headlines: Gold climbs, 4kg silver over 6 metres & more
- BlackRock sees gold supply declining with mine closures
- Harmony Gold imposes cost cap at South African mines
- Manappuram expects faster gold loan growth as RBI eases rules
- 2014 will not be a quiet year for gold/silver
- Will Gold and Silver Increase from Here?
- 10 reasons the gold bugs lost their shirts - Ritholtz
- 3.0% – Nuff’ Said!
- Mercenary Links Jan 10th: Cold Snap
- Comex Gold Inventory: Do You Really Trust The Banks?
- 23 reasons to be bullish on gold price this year
- Will Gold and Silver Increase from Here?
- Parameters of the coming dollar collapse
- Deniers look away: Bears emerge from hibernation
- Book Review: The Money Bubble, by James Turk and John Rubino
- Passive commodity funds rebalancing
- Dollar Drops; Commodities move Higher
- Alasdair Macleod: A Vicious Bear Trap is Set in Gold & Silver on COMEX!
- Gold crashes: Diversify and buy gold for long term
- Do gold and silver have any hope of rising from here?
- Exploring gold's itinerary to India via the legal route
- Fed Tapering, Jobs & Gold
- China seen boosting bank gold reserves
- Janet Yellen, the Nation’s New Chief Slumlord
- Peru Gold output rises 3.19% Y Y in Nov 2013
- “Price Of Gold Crashes” - Diversify And Buy Gold For Long Term
- Surprising Weak Payrolls number - What will the Fed do?
- The Fed Has All the Markets in Lockdown
- Gold & Silver Spiking on Huge Payrolls Miss
- Twenty Years of NAFTA Sucking Sound
- “Price Of Gold Crashes” – Diversify And Buy Gold For Long Term
- Gold balancing two markets
- Huge News: Iran, Russia negotiating big oil-for-goods deal
- Lawrence Williams: Wishful Thinking on Gold—But For All the Right Reasons
- Five King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews
- Alasdair Macleod: Index trackers and their effect on gold and silver futures
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch slashes gold call to $1,150 and warns it could get uglier
- How the Big Guns Are Playing Gold Mining Stocks
- India eases gold lending rules
- Silver inventory reaches 16-year high after worst rout since 1981
- Lawrence Williams: Wishful thinking on gold – but for all the right reasons
- Coin shortages and rationing are in our future
- Bullion and Energy Market Commentary
- TECHNICAL - Gold Set Up is Similar to 6 Months Ago
- Gold Technicals – Maintaining Bearish Posture
- Gold Price Analysis- Jan. 10, 2014
- CHARTS: Have Gold and Silver Stocks Bottomed?
- Wishful thinking on gold – but for all the right reasons
- Atlas Pulse Gold Investor Report: Is there really too much debt?
- Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis January 10, 2014 Forecast – Silver
| Can't-miss headlines: Gold climbs, 4kg silver over 6 metres & more Posted: 10 Jan 2014 05:22 PM PST The latest morning headlines, top junior developments and metal price movements. Today the gold price was back on the move, up, and Maya Gold & Silver reports an impressive intercept from Zgounder in Morocco. | ||
| BlackRock sees gold supply declining with mine closures Posted: 10 Jan 2014 03:17 PM PST Gold producers are cutting costs and focusing on profitable mines after prices for the metal slid 28% last year, the biggest annual drop since. | ||
| Harmony Gold imposes cost cap at South African mines Posted: 10 Jan 2014 03:16 PM PST The company will reduce its costs per ounce by mining more higher-grade ore and cutting spending on future projects, says CEO Graham Briggs. | ||
| Manappuram expects faster gold loan growth as RBI eases rules Posted: 10 Jan 2014 03:04 PM PST The Indian lender expects its loan book to grow at a faster pace in the 12 months to March 2015 after the central bank raised a key ratio yesterday. | ||
| 2014 will not be a quiet year for gold/silver Posted: 10 Jan 2014 03:03 PM PST We see it being exciting and with fundamental influences coming to bear to change the shape of these markets entirely, says Julian Phillips. | ||
| Will Gold and Silver Increase from Here? Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:52 PM PST SunshineProfits | ||
| 10 reasons the gold bugs lost their shirts - Ritholtz Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:18 PM PST Barry Ritholtz attempts to learn some investing lessons from the epic rise and horrific fall of gold. | ||
| Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:15 PM PST On the fateful day of June 19th, the Fed misjudged its ability to control markets – by hinting it might taper if the economy improved. Helicopter Ben was drunk with confidence, given QE had pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down to 2.1%; whilst the PPT had taken the Dow to new highs; the Cartel had smashed PMs to oblivion; and nary an "inflation fear" was reported anywhere. Knowing full well that his days as Fed Chairman were numbered, he desperately sought to "re-write" a legacy of taking rates to zero, holding them there for five years, and exploding the Fed's balance sheet by 500%. And thus, he felt it "worth the risk" to hint at tapering; which unfortunately for him, became a self-fulfilling prophecy when the government propaganda machine stepped up its game in the second half of the year. A series of glowing, but blatantly manipulated NFP reports followed; which despite their most glaring flaw, a plunging Labor Participation Rate, were ballyhooed as the beginning of a new economic boom. Thus, Bennie was all but "forced" to commence the tapering process in December, despite the MSM ignoring the giant pink elephant in the room; i.e., that "tapering," per se, was but a mirage.
Despite the bogus employment reports, it couldn't be clearer the U.S. economy was measurably weakening. The all-important housing sector started to roll over the second rates inched up, and the holiday shopping season was the worst since the post-crisis environment of 2009; whilst inexorably, that pesky Labor Participation rate continued to plunge. However, in a world where global confidence in – and usage of – the dollar has been down-trending for years, even the hint of a reduction in Treasury and mortgage bond monetization caused extreme upward pressure on interest rates. Not to mention, the PBOC's momentous November 20th statement that "it's no longer in China's favor to accumulate foreign-exchange reserves." And thus, on Thursday, September 5th – i.e., barely two months after Bennie opened his trap – the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit an intraday high of 2.99%, before closing at 2.98%.
Fortunately for the Fed, the following day – Friday September 6th – was an NFP employment report day. And thus, the BLS simply fabricated a "worse than expected" number to relieve pressure on Treasury bonds, as you can see below. However, when the year-end push to ensure maximum Wall Street bonuses commenced after Thanksgiving, the government propaganda machine was turned up full tilt; generating positive "diffusion index" readings and a "strong" November NFP report; again, despite plunging Labor Participation, weak retail sales and a generally punk global economic outlook. And thus, before the Fed knew it, the 10-year Treasury yield had again reached 3.0%; thus, threatening to destroy the recovery mirage it has worked so hard to foster. To wit, we could not have been more vociferous in our views that rapidly rising rates will implode the economy. And thus, it shouldn't surprise anyone that today's NFP report was as bad as could possibly be imagined. As I write, the 10-year yield has been "turboQE'd" back down to 2.88%; and rest assured, an accompanying "no taper" tsunami will wash over the MSM through at least the January 29th FOMC meeting; and likely, well into Janet Yellen's tenure, as the following FOMC meeting isn't until March 19th. Another $225 billion will be added to the Fed's balance sheet by then; and off balance sheet, perhaps significantly more.
As for today's horrific jobs report, it included every imaginable weakness. But before I analyze it, recall what we published last week – regarding how Wall Street has been clueless about recent economic "calls"; particularly, how Byron Wien was wrong about his 2013 predictions, and ALL of Wall Street regarding silver prices. Remember, Wall Street wouldn't dare acknowledge – or even consider – the potential for manipulation; and thus, its analysts are "flying blind" to start with. Irrespective, they are no better at predicting markets and economic data than the average Joe or Jane; so don't for a second fear they know what they're saying. And this goes double for Precious Metals; as not only is next to ZERO credible analysis done on the sector, but gold and silver represent the mortal enemy of the banks. To wit, I present Wall Street's forecast for today's December NFP report, of a net gain of 200,000 jobs. Better yet, the "world's best analysts" assumed the unemployment rate would remain unchanged at 7.0%; even though the Miles Franklin Blog predicted it would plunge toward 6.5% due to the anticipated 1.3 million person reduction in the Labor Force. As it turns out, just 74,000 jobs were created – compared to the ridiculous 238,000 purported by the ADP on Wednesday; including a net loss in construction jobs, compared to ADP's purported gain. Let's see; surging interest rates, weakening home prices and cold weather in December. Gee, I wonder "who's lying." And as we predicted, the "unemployment rate" plunged to 6.7%; however, we are still at a loss to explain how the BLS assumed the Labor Force only declined by 550,000 people. I mean, do the math. If 1,330,000 people's unemployment benefits terminated, but only 74,000 jobs were created (more than half of which were "temps"), it would seem that the Labor Force should have decline by closer to 1,250,000 than 550,000; thus, pushing the unemployment rate well below 6.5%. But then again, as we've stated countless times, the government literally fabricates all economic data; and in some cases, are overtly exposed. To wit, we're told 2013 was a rip-roaring year for job creation. However, less jobs were actually created in 2013 than 2012! Moreover, the mean duration of unemployment sits near all-time high levels, at more than twice the average level of the past six decades; while the difference between reported and implied unemployment rates have never been higher. We won't even bring up John Williams' TRUE unemployment rate of nearly 23%; as suffice to say, there's enough government lies to report without "going there."
As for today's "markets," TPTB are doing everything they can to stabilize the situation. Most important on their agenda was pushing rates down; and subsequently, calming pressure on the Fed to further "taper." The Dow Jones Propaganda Average, of course, had its losses capped at -100 points (i.e. "PPT limit down level #2); whilst the Cartel has held gold to gains barely above 1.0% – yet again, just below its current "line in the sand" at $1,250/oz. As for silver, what more can we write of the Cartel's fear of silver surging through its two-month old "line in the sand" at $20/oz.; given how low global inventories are, and strong PHYSICAL demand is becoming? The "Cartel Herald" capping algorithms" couldn't be more obvious, below; but fortunately, with each passing day such obviousness is becoming more viral.
Which brings us to the sorry state of the dying COMEX; which clearly, is in its final days as the world's primary Precious Metals pricing mechanism. As you can see below, another 63,000 ounces left the registered inventory category yesterday, leaving a measly 416,000 supporting a more than 100:1 paper to physical Ponzi scheme. Worse yet, it's been nine days since the December gold contract closed, and still 200,000 ounces await delivery from registered inventory. If they are not delivered, this represents an all-out COMEX default; and if so, just 200,000 ounces will support the entire COMEX gold fraud; i.e., down 95% from the April levels, when the Cartel commenced the infamous "Alternative Currencies Destruction."
If you take one thing from this article, it should be what the Miles Franklin Blog has loudly stated all along. That is, the Fed CANNOT allow interest rates to materially rise. Clearly, they have set up their own "line in the sand" at 3.0% on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield; and thus, they'll utilize all of their "partners in crime" to fabricate situations enabling them to hold rates below that all-important level. The Fed's fiat currency Ponzi scheme is in its final phase, now that debt growth – worldwide – has turned parabolic. And thus, its very survival depends on financing it at historically low interest rates. Which of course, could end at any time – if global confidence losses overwhelm their manipulation efforts. Unfortunately, the Fed's hyper-money printing has exported massive inflation to the world's "non-reserve currencies" – i.e., all of them, per "The most important article I've ever written." And thus, the current attempt to cap interest rates will only make things worse. It's no surprise that John Williams predicts Hyperinflation in 2014; and if he's off in his timing, it won't be by much. Thus, we plead that you consider your financial options, while the window to PROTECT yourself remains open. Feel free to contact Miles Franklin at 800-822-8080 if you have any questions, as we're always happy to answer them!Similar Posts: | ||
| Mercenary Links Jan 10th: Cold Snap Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:09 PM PST Mercenary Links Jan 10th: US job growth falls sharply… Baltic Dry Index Collapses… Target’s data breach gets much worse… why the PC is dead, the existential threat to Bitcoin, and more.
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Recent Mercenary Links (scroll for archives)
 p.s. Like this article? For more, visit our Knowledge Center! p.p.s. If you haven't already, check out the Strategic Intelligence Report! | ||
| Comex Gold Inventory: Do You Really Trust The Banks? Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:00 PM PST
 How would you like to get your bank statement in the mail from JP Morgan or Bank of America and see this disclaimer added at the bottom: “The information in this account statement is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, JP Morgan Chase & Co. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its [...] The post Comex Gold Inventory: Do You Really Trust The Banks? appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| 23 reasons to be bullish on gold price this year Posted: 10 Jan 2014 11:57 AM PST Despite the hammering gold took in 2013, here are some of the contrarian voices that believe the gold bull market is far from being over. | ||
| Will Gold and Silver Increase from Here? Posted: 10 Jan 2014 11:49 AM PST Will Gold and Silver Increase from Here?
Based on the January 10th, 2014 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver articles.
In our previous article on gold, we examined the situation in the U.S. dollar and the euro as many times in the past they gave us important clues about future precious metals' moves. At that time we wrote in the summary:
(…) gold’s lack of will to really (!) react to positive news, like the dollar’s huge intra-day drop, is a bearish piece of information on its own and an indication that gold is likely to move lower in the short run.
On the next trading day, after the essay was posted, gold and silver declined and dropped to their fresh monthly lows. With this downward move gold almost touched the June low. This strong support level encouraged buyers to push the buy button and the yellow metal, which last week saw its best week since October, rebounded to around $1,250. At the same time, silver came back above $20.
Will the recent week's rally continue? Before we try to answer this question, we'll examine the long-term charts of gold and silver to see if there's anything on the horizon that could these precious metals higher or lower in the near future. We'll start with the long-term chart of gold (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com). Even though a lot happened last and this week, from the long-term perspective not much changed on the gold market.
We saw a move back to the rising long-term resistance line (currently close to $1,250), but gold only touched it, only to decline once again. At this time the medium-term outlook remains bearish. Any additional rally is not likely to move significantly above this level (from this perspective significantly means not more than $50 above it, which takes significant intra-day volatility into account).
Our previous essay on gold we wrote the following:
Please note that the exact target for gold is quite difficult to provide. In the cases of silver and mining stocks there are respectively: combinations of strong support levels, and a major support in the form of the 2008 low. In the case of gold, there are 4 support levels that could stop the decline and each of them is coincidentally located $50 below the previous one starting at $1,150: $1,150, $1,100, $1,050, and $1,000.
Taking into account the current situation in the yellow metal, the above price targets remain valid.
Let's take a look at the chart featuring gold's price from the non-USD perspective. From the non-USD perspective, gold simply moved back to the previously broken support line and verified it as resistance. There was only an intra-week move above it, but the price is already back below the line, and it seems that it will close the week below it as well. Please note that in the final part of 2013 we also saw one intra-week move back above this line and this move was even more significant than what we saw this week. It too didn't invalidate the breakdown. In fact, it was followed by a significant downswing. We can expect the situation to be quite similar shortly, if gold does indeed rally. The move higher could be temporary, and unless we have a weekly close above the rising support line (dashed line, currently close to 46), we will not have any bullish implications whatsoever.
Even if we see some strength, the ratio would have to move above 48 (where the upper declining resistance line is currently located) in order for the situation to become bullish.
Consequently, some short-term strength is clearly possible, but we don't think that the medium-term downtrend will be invalidated.
Having discussed the current situation in gold, let's take a look at the long-term chart of silver. It is often said that history repeats itself (or that it rhymes) and it surely applies when we look at silver's recent performance.
At the end of December silver moved temporarily back above the rising support/resistance line, but didn't manage to hold this level. The white metal gave up the gains and dropped below both long-term support/resistance lines, which triggered further deterioration.
This week, the white metal made another attempt to move back above the resistance lines, but failed to move above the upper of them and ultimately the breakdown below these lines was not invalidated.
The next downside target is the previous 2013 low, slightly above the $18 level. Once we see silver below it, the next (and probably final) stop will likely be close to $16. Overall, the trend remains down.
Summing up, looking at the current situation in gold and silver, we see that the medium-term trends remain down and the outlook for both remains bearish. However, on a short-term basis we can expect to see a temporary move higher. In case of gold, it doesn't seem that the yellow metal will move above $1,250, and even if that happened, it would not be likely to move above $1,285 and change the medium-term trend. In the case of silver, given the white metal's back-and-forth performance in the recent weeks, we also can't rule out another move higher before the next big move down materializes.
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Thank you for reading.
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Founder, Editor-in-chief Tools for Effective Gold & Silver Investments – SunshineProfits.com Tools für Effektives Gold- und Silber-Investment – SunshineProfits.DE * * * * * About Sunshine Profits
Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing. Disclaimer
All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
The post Will Gold and Silver Increase from Here? appeared first on The Daily Gold. | ||
| Parameters of the coming dollar collapse Posted: 10 Jan 2014 11:35 AM PST Hyperinflation is a dynamic process — much like a positive feedback loop that, once entered, is almost impossible to exit. The process can go on for years. In the feedback cycle, the more central banks print money and buy bonds, the less other entities want to hold bonds. | ||
| Deniers look away: Bears emerge from hibernation Posted: 10 Jan 2014 11:30 AM PST Stacy Summary: Of course, the main thinker for deniers, Rush Limbaugh, says the term ‘polar vortex’ was invented to explain the cold snap in the US. Now this proves that the followers of Limbaugh are deniers not ‘skeptics’ as they claim to be, for, of course, they shriek that Limbaugh is right!!!!!! this is trueeeee!!!!! Because the fat man says it is true! Not one, no single shrieker out there bothered to actually even google it and find it in the AMS manual of 1959 or research papers from the 40s and 50′s. And, even there in black and white, they just shriek, ‘NO, IT DOESN’T EXIST! THOSE ARE FAKE! MY SHRIEKING PROVES IT IS!” Now, I know when you weigh 600 pounds and need to get around on an adult-sized tricycle it may be hard to move your arm up to the keyboard. And I know when the Earth is 6,000 years old in your pea-sized brain. And I know when fundamentalism forces you into all sorts of bizarre maneuvers to assert grand conspiracies on basic meteorological knowledge going back decades. Well then I know, you’ve got some clever way to snap away in denial all that presents a true and honest picture of the world.
I implore you NOT to tell any deniers about this as their simple brains have no idea that there is anywhere outside the immediate vicinity of their home or the range of their adult-sized tricycle. Also, don’t show them that there is actual satellite data that just may trump their assertions or the grand wisdom of their giant thinker, Rush Limbaugh. Again, their cognitive dissonating mind could possibly meltdown.  IT’S A HOAX!!! I KNOW IT IS BECAUSE I HEARD IT FROM RUSH! THAT’S WHY I WRITE ALL IN CAPS! | ||
| Book Review: The Money Bubble, by James Turk and John Rubino Posted: 10 Jan 2014 11:30 AM PST
By Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research, GoldMoney This view, which I share, has been confirmed by GoldMoney's success. The book, co-authored with John Rubino, is partly a follow-up to their previous work, The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit from it published in 2004, and it brings the reader up to date following the Lehman Crisis in 2008. This was the crisis the authors foresaw four years ahead of the event in their earlier book, expecting it to lead to the dollar's collapse. The collapse didn't happen that time, but it was a close-run thing, requiring unlimited financial support from the central banks for the banking system. Five years on and the financial world has so far avoided another crisis. The common perception is that the problems of the US's housing bubble and the rescue of AIG, which were central to the massive expansion of increasingly complex derivatives, are now behind us. But as the authors point out, since the Lehman Crisis many of the problems they identified in their earlier book have actually intensified. The Money Bubble brings us up to date with the over-leveraged banks and the alarming growth in derivatives and government debt, as well as the money bubble itself. In a nod towards Hayek they chronicle government intrusion into personal freedom and choice. They warn us that governments are increasing capital controls, and through bank bail-ins confiscation of money in bank accounts could become commonplace. The trend is already there, with desperate governments even confiscating pension property, as they did in Poland recently. They cover the widespread manipulation of markets by central banks, and take us through the inevitable consequences of supressing interest rates. The book brings us up to date with developments in gold and silver markets as you would expect, given the authors' views about the desirability of sound money. But you would be wrong to dismiss this as little more than the work of gold-bugs. The authors' background knowledge of economics shines through. And yes, while there is a preference for precious metals, the book is refreshingly free of the institutional bias in economic analysis that today masquerades as progressive thinking. Above all, the book is written so that complex subjects, such as the creation of bank credit, can be readily understood by the layman. And for those readers seeking a vade mecum on precious metals markets as they operate today, they will find it here. I recommend this book to all financial experts as well as the layman. The Money Bubble (What to do before it pops) by James Turk and John Rubino, available from Amazon now. Ends
The post Book Review: The Money Bubble, by James Turk and John Rubino appeared first on The Daily Gold. | ||
| Passive commodity funds rebalancing Posted: 10 Jan 2014 11:28 AM PST GoldMoney Market Report by Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research Passive commodity funds rebalancing ___________________________________________________________________
Ends NOTES TO EDITOR Image attached For more information, and to arrange interviews, please call Gwyn Garfield-Bennett on 01534 715411, or email gwyn@directinput.je GoldMoney is one of the world's leading providers of physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium for retail and corporate customers. Customers can trade and store precious metal online easily and securely, 24 hours a day. GoldMoney has offices in London, Jersey and Hong Kong. It offers its customers storage facilities in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland and the UK provided by the leading non-bank vault operators Brink’s, Via Mat, Malca-Amit, G4S and Rhenus Logistics. Historically gold has been an excellent way to preserve purchasing power over long periods of time. For example, today it takes almost the same amount of gold to buy a barrel of crude oil as it did 60 years ago which is in stark contrast to the price of oil in terms of national currencies such as the US dollar. GoldMoney is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission and complies with Jersey’s anti-money laundering laws and regulations. GoldMoney has established industry-leading governance policies and procedures to protect customers’ assets with independent audit reporting every 3 months by two leading audit firms. Visit www.goldmoney.com. The post Passive commodity funds rebalancing appeared first on The Daily Gold. | ||
| Dollar Drops; Commodities move Higher Posted: 10 Jan 2014 11:01 AM PST Almost like clockwork, the abysmal payrolls number undercut recent strength in the US Dollar. Just like that - up went the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. Tell me that the Dollar is not the key to the complex! It did not hurt that index one iota that the USDA issued a shock report today which contained a bullish surprise for corn prices. It was not that the number they gave us was so bullish; rather it was that no one expected it. The market was leaning heavily on the short side and the pencil pushers over at USDA threw everyone a curve ball. Quite frankly I do not believe the final number that they gave us. It is what the market has to work with however for the time being, and thus we experienced a gigantic short squeeze in corn that helped keep wheat from falling completely off the cliff, as the USDA number for that grain was decidedly bearish. The soybean number was also unfriendly as they showed a bit larger crop than the market had been expecting but it was the huge buying in the corn pit that tended to pull money into the entire grain complex. That prevented the beans from selling off on the report. On top of that you had coffee moving higher, hogs moving higher and the liquid energy complex moving higher. Base metal copper was higher. Given that environment to expect silver or gold to move lower was unwarranted. As a matter of fact, we had a pretty substantial short squeeze in the gold market to accompany some of the short squeezes across the generality of the sector. Gold has now completely recovered its losses from the "fat finger" trade of Monday to the point that any discussion about the particulars of that event are moot at this point. I stand by my contention that it was an erroneous trade but who cares at this point. The lousy jobs number has given shorts reason for fear in gold and encouraged some more bottom picking in the metal. This is due to revived talk of a hold on any Fed tapering. However, it is now moving into a very strong resistance level on the price chart. Further upward progress, WITHOUT the accompaniment of a weaker Dollar and more upward price pressure across the commodity complex in general, is going to be much more contested. Also, based on the strong November jobs number, plus the upward revision in today's report to that already strong number, today's numbers for December should be treated with a bit of skepticism, especially after private firm ADP gave us such strong numbers on Wednesday. A lot of time can pass between now and the next payrolls number but I would not be surprised to see that number move much higher, more in line with what we have been getting recently. If that is the case, look for any move higher in gold, based solely on ideas that the Fed will be on hold for Tapering, to meet with some aggressive selling on the part of the hedge fund community.  Bulls have the opportunity to try to take price up towards the last level of chart resistance I have noted between $1255 - $1260 or so. If they can best this level, they will have recaptured control of the gold market for the time being, at least from the daily or short-term perspective, and even have a shot at a quick run to $1280. It is going to be educational to see how Asia responds to this price rise. Will the move up curtail some of the strong physical offtake we had been experiencing over there or will price-conscious buyers step away from the market to see if they can get the metal cheaper? We will find out. A look at the weekly chart below shows the market still under the control of bearish forces, as it has been since late 2012. Today's move was a nice gift to the bulls but looking at the chart from this longer term perspective, it has FAR MORE WORK to do before changing the picture from one of bearishness to one of bullishness.  | ||
| Alasdair Macleod: A Vicious Bear Trap is Set in Gold & Silver on COMEX! Posted: 10 Jan 2014 11:00 AM PST
 There are two main indices tracked by commodity tracker funds: the S&P-Goldman Sachs Commodities Index and the Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index. According to S&P Indices (which manages both), total assets estimated at $155bn track these two indices, of which $75bn tracks the former, and the balance of $80bn the latter. Both indices are rebalanced [...] The post Alasdair Macleod: A Vicious Bear Trap is Set in Gold & Silver on COMEX! appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| Gold crashes: Diversify and buy gold for long term Posted: 10 Jan 2014 10:50 AM PST This negative sentiment toward gold has been seen in a large number of articles in recent days. Many have focused on gold's poor price performance in 2013. Some have been balanced, others less so. | ||
| Do gold and silver have any hope of rising from here? Posted: 10 Jan 2014 10:43 AM PST Strong support level encouraged buyers to push the buy button and the yellow metal rebounded to around $1,250. At the same time, silver went back above $20. Will the recent week's rally continue? | ||
| Exploring gold's itinerary to India via the legal route Posted: 10 Jan 2014 10:35 AM PST According to statistics, inflow of gold into India through legal channel has witnessed phenomenal rise in recent times. Gold houses have turned to Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) to import gold after paying duty. Moreover, Indians prefer to buy gold from international market, mainly on account of two reasons. | ||
| Posted: 10 Jan 2014 10:20 AM PST Gold loved today's awful US jobs data. It could love Fed tapering still more... WELL, this throws a monkey wrench in the works, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. The very same month that the US Federal Reserve took its cue from lower unemployment to start tapering its money-printing program, US unemployment fell to a 5-year low of 6.7%. So far, so good. That's below the 7.0% level by which Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said tapering might be all done in mid-2014. It's also a good way towards the Fed's 6.5% line-in-the-sand for daring to think about raising interest rates from their half-decade flatline at zero, too. Higher rates, lower gold, or so things typically run (net of inflation). Yet gold prices jumped on Friday's news...reversing the week's earlier 1.5% drop to close London at $1245 per ounce, its best weekly finish since November...back before the Fed finally found its bottle and made good on the tapering it had promised it would do in September. Why? Because net hiring sank last month, down to just 74,000 for an 18-month low...less than half the past 4 years' average...and the worst December since 2009. Hiring down, joblessness down. How about that?
Participation in the labor market fell in October to a 35-year low of 62.5%. It fell there again in December's data as job seekers quit seeking, just as the US Fed started trimming $10 billion from its monthly QE money-printing. Fact: Ten billion is a lot of money. All the software developers in all the world made a total of $10bn from all the app sales on Apple's App Store in calendar-year 2013. Fact: That still leaves $75bn to be printed and spent in January...greater even than the entire underground mineral wealth of Peru, the third-largest producer of copper, silver, zinc and tin, and the sixth-largest gold mining nation. Indeed, at its most valuable in late 2011 and 2012, the entire SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), the New York-listed gold trust, was briefly worth some $75bn. Back then, the GLD was the most highly valued ETF in the world. The US central bank is now creating that much money, from nowhere, and spending it to support US debt prices this month alone as 2014 begins. And they call it tapering...  Still, $10 billion here, $10bn there, and pretty soon you're talking real money. Or rather its "electronic equivalent" as Ben Bernanke, the current Fed chair, put it in his famous 2002 speech on making sure deflation doesn't happen in the US. Quantitative easing, as a reminder, means "easing with quantity". Specifically, it means easing long-term interest rates, way out on 10-year and 20-year loans where the Fed doesn't usually play. And easing them by way of quantity (as in trillions) of new money, created from nowhere, and spent buying government bonds and mortgage debt to boost debt prices. Because that pushes down their interest rates as a percentage (known as the "yield"). Easing with quantity. Forget about the impact on the economy. We can't even say whether QE worked to cut interest rates or not. Because we don't know what would have happened without it. But now it's being "tapered" (with that $10bn here and maybe $10bn there), longer-term interest rates have reached a significant point. Ben Bernanke stands aside next month. He may end his time as Fed chairman at the very same point that a 30-year trend in US (and global) interest rates hits the skids too. Ten-year US bond yields are perilously close to breaking out of their long-term downtrend. Meaning US government bond prices stand on the edge of ending their 30-year rise. Cutting QE support means letting bond prices fall. Which means letting bond yields rise. Three per cent on the 10-year Treasury is a line in the sand which the Fed hasn't drawn. Not yet in public. But we guess that increasing the pace of money-printing, instead of tapering it, will top the agenda every time the US economy now sneezes. What's good for bonds is good for gold remember. Lower rates, higher prices, and vice versa (net of inflation of course). Ten-year yields have risen more than one percentage point from New Year 2013, denting US government bond prices enough for Uncle Sam's debt to come second-last in our Annual Asset Performance Comparison for last year. Down at the bottom came gold. And here's the rub. The fact of tapering, we think, rather than the idea, could actually prove bullish for gold longer term. Yes, really. Here's why. For portfolio managers and big-money allocations, the QE Trade (2008-2011) was built on the fear of deflation first, then inflation. Printing money signalled that falling prices in the economy, and a credit collapse, were the imminent risk. Think Japan 1990-to-today. So buy government bonds, investment managers thought. "The Fed is so scared, it's printing money to buy bonds!" But printing money is also inflationary long term. "So after the bonds, buy gold, the ultimate inflation hedge!" Only, why wait? Thus the QE Trade was to buy bonds, buy gold, and then take to your yacht as money-printing worked its magic. It worked a treat too, as our Annual Asset Performance Table shows. Gold and bonds rose as everything else sank. And the more money was printed, the more the QE Trade gained new buyers for bonds and gold. Lots of people got confused over this. Big brain Hugh Hendry accused his fellow fund managers of "jumping to the end of the story", and buying gold before the deflation was done. NYU economist Nouriel Roubini didn't get it either, asking why-in-the-hell gold was rising when there wasn't any inflation in consumer prices. Back then, in 2009, we thought gold was rising because it offered deflation protection, as well as defense against inflation. Which is true. Physical gold cannot be destroyed, unlike credit or stock market shares. But the real driver, we now realize, was in truth how big-money investors saw the metal. And for them, it was one half of the QE Trade. Deflation first, inflation after. Buy bonds, buy gold. Now, the "extraordinary measure" of creating money to save the world from financial collapse hit its peak in late 2012. The Bernanke Fed hiked its monthly asset purchases to $85bn, an absurd number for an absurd policy. Like gold, however, government bonds had grown stale for the money-managing community. The financial crisis itself was a half-decade old. So the story of crisis, and the narrative of QE, had grown tiresome too. "Buy bonds and gold? How passé!" Meantime, the Fed also began making noises about trimming its QE money creation. Taper talk steadily built to a mutter and then a grumble and then a monthly forecast, every time the Fed prepared to meet and set policy, and every time new US data was released (most notably Non-Farm Payrolls). All this talk of tapering, QE, joblessness and Bernanke moving on from the Fed begs the question, however. If the United States isn't out of the woods, then more money-printing is certain to follow. And if it is, then deflation is over. Meaning perhaps that the second leg of the QE Trade can now come to the fore. Because all the money created on Bernanke's electronic equivalent of the printing press so far is still with us. Frozen in banking reserves so far, it's no longer weighing against the risk of falling prices in the economy. Or so the blunt logic of 6.7% jobless rates and QE tapering suggests. Bonds and gold weren't supposed to rise together, not according to Hendry, Roubini and the rest. So if bonds are to go down as QE is reduced, what then? | ||
| China seen boosting bank gold reserves Posted: 10 Jan 2014 09:53 AM PST China may have vaulted ahead of Italy and France last year to become the third-largest holder of gold, according to a Bloomberg Industries report. | ||
| Janet Yellen, the Nation’s New Chief Slumlord Posted: 10 Jan 2014 09:30 AM PST
 Janet Yellen’s role as the nation’s slumlord is masked by her apparent distance from the Fed’s money spigot and the resulting institutional ownership of the nation’s rental housing stock. Please welcome the nation’s new chief slumlord, Janet Yellen. The previous top slumlord, Ben Bernanke, has retired from the position of Chief Slumlord (i.e. chair of [...] The post Janet Yellen, the Nation’s New Chief Slumlord appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| Peru Gold output rises 3.19% Y Y in Nov 2013 Posted: 10 Jan 2014 08:40 AM PST Peru's silver production reported at 332166 kilograms in November 2013, surged by 12.63% compared to 294913 kg of silver produced in the same month previous year. | ||
| “Price Of Gold Crashes” - Diversify And Buy Gold For Long Term Posted: 10 Jan 2014 08:03 AM PST gold.ie | ||
| Surprising Weak Payrolls number - What will the Fed do? Posted: 10 Jan 2014 07:34 AM PST That is the question on traders' mind this AM as the jobs report detailing the December numbers shocked the market by coming in so low. The ADP numbers earlier this week had stoked expectations for a strong number above 200K. Many were looking for something closer to 250K, What they got instead was 74K. Keep in mind that ADP ( a private firm) had given us a 235,000 number on Wednesday. Also, the November payrolls number was upwardly revised from the previous 203K to 241K. That is what makes the December number so shocking. The labor participation rate continues to shrink and this is something that runs the very real risk of becoming systemic. Sure that tends to shrink the overall unemployment number but at what cost to the rest of society? The reaction in gold was as dramatic as was the reaction in the US Dollar. As a matter of fact, there seemed to be a bit of a resurgence in the "let's buy commodities" trade across the sector based on the weakness in the Dollar. Crude oil moved up $1.70 a barrel at one point. Most folks would scratch their head and say, "Duh?" on something like that but we have come to expect the goofy reactions we get based off of these numbers. The market, instead of reacting with concern over the poor numbers and the resultant lower demand for energy, instead looks over at the Fed and thinks, " NO way they are going to taper right now". No immediate reduction in funny money and thus no immediate drop in liquidity being provided. Weakness in the economy means lower interest rates - lower interest rates means weaker Dollar and "Voila!", let's buy commodities today. The problem is that nothing has therefore changed on the perceived inflation front. I maintain that wages must increase and hiring must pick up if we are to see any signs of serious inflation arise. What today does is just refuel the fears of deflation. Perhaps some in the market are thinking along the same line and coming to the conclusion that the Fed must also be worried about deflation reasserting itself and thus will ease back on the Tapering. Who knows but if the last two years of bond buying by the Fed, and certainly the $85 billion/month coming out of the most recent QE4 program has not resulted in any serious inflation issues, why should we expect another 2 years, 2 months, etc of bond buying to produce any at all? Given that backdrop, gold is still going to face headwinds as it needs to see confidence in the US Dollar eroding to mount a sustained move higher in price. Thus I see two drivers - one -the US Dollar drops sharply or - two- the economic data shows more rapid growth heating up inflationary pressures. Either way the result is the same as far as the inflation issue goes. The metal is pressing up against the downtrending 50 day moving average, a key technical point that most traders watch closely. It has not been above this level since late October of last year and then it only managed to hold above this level for 5 days before succumbing to another bout of selling. My guess is that we can expect the same as we move ahead. I remain skeptical therefore about gold's fortunes but will respect what the chart action tells me. Right now, the jury is still out as the ADX shows a directionless market on the daily time frame. Bulls are close to getting control of the market but are not there yet.  | ||
| The Fed Has All the Markets in Lockdown Posted: 10 Jan 2014 07:30 AM PST This is one interview that you must not miss from Dr. Paul Craig Roberts. If you only have time to spend on one article in today's newsletter, then listen to this interview below by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts. It will clarify everything we have said to you for the past two years and explain just what Obamacare means to YOU and to the economy. Two topics stood out for me in the interview. First, the Fed has ALL the markets in lockdown. They will continue as long as the media keeps the wool pulled over the public's eyes. Second, by the time the public figures out what is happening and decide to get out of the dollar for the safety of gold and silver, it will be too late. There won't be any left to buy. It will already be in Asia. The West is foolish – sending its gold and silver to China and India. All in the name of temporarily supporting the U.S. dollar, this is a losing proposition. You've heard this over and over from Bill Holter. Here is another voice, one with credibility, backing up Bill's views. The former Treasury Secretary, Roberts says – don't worry about the price – the price may fall further – but it's not important. The real issue is whether you have it or not because when you need it you won't be able to buy it. The Chinese will never sell it. It's gone forever. Point well taken Dr. Roberts! You are preaching to the Miles Franklin choir.
And now, as promised in yesterday's daily, here is a brief recap of John Williams from Shadowstats.com latest report on hyperinflation. His last report on this topic was in 2012. It is a must read and I strongly urge all of our readers to subscribe to Shadowstats and take the time to read the report in its entirety.
Inflation will return. It will be of the cost-push variety, like Jim Sinclair says, and not the ordinary demand-pull that the media focuses on. Inflation will not be the result of a strong economy. It will be caused by a weak dollar, which will boost the price of oil. Changes in the value of the U.S. dollar accounts for 80% of the movement of oil prices. Oil prices are the dominant component of cost-push inflation in the U.S.
Similar Posts: | ||
| Gold & Silver Spiking on Huge Payrolls Miss Posted: 10 Jan 2014 07:25 AM PST
 Gold & silver have gone vertical this morning on the release of a terrible January Non-Farms Payrolls report: +74k on expectations of +197k, the biggest miss in nearly 5 years! Silver instantly spiked up through $20 to $20.31, and gold is heading towards $1250 with a last of $1246. 2014 Silver Canadian Maple With [...] The post Gold & Silver Spiking on Huge Payrolls Miss appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| Twenty Years of NAFTA Sucking Sound Posted: 10 Jan 2014 07:00 AM PST
 Ah, what a better world the Free Traders built. With the rush to the bottom, the commemoration of the NAFTA 20th anniversary is a most hollow celebration. Those who have a memory of an actual economic prosperity, lament that H. Ross Perot's warnings were ignored. Business literates urged the public to elect Perot as President. [...] The post Twenty Years of NAFTA Sucking Sound appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| “Price Of Gold Crashes” – Diversify And Buy Gold For Long Term Posted: 10 Jan 2014 05:54 AM PST Simplistic, subjective and unbalanced anti-gold opinions tend to get media coverage. However, it is important to always focus on the empirical evidence as seen in the academic research, price performance over the long term and the historical record. Today's AM fix was USD 1,232.25, EUR 906.53 and GBP 750.78 per ounce. Gold climbed $3.50 or 0.29% yesterday, closing at $1,228.40/oz. Silver rose $0.01 or 0.05% closing at $19.57/oz. Platinum inched down $0.25 to $1,413.75/oz and palladium fell $0.25 to $733.25/oz. Gold is slightly higher today in all major currencies and up nearly 1% in sterling after the UK's industrial and manufacturing production number was much worse than expected. There was more unusual trading at 10.00 GMT when in a matter of seconds, gold sold off by $5 from $1,233/oz to $1,227.75/oz which is fraction below the opening price today. Then almost instantaneously, gold spiked to $1,237.77/oz and then fell back to the $1,233/oz level once again.
This type of shenanigans will again make momentum followers and the technical traders nervous and curtail 'animal spirits' and positive sentiment towards gold. A positive U.S. jobs number today should see gold come under pressure, while a negative one should see gold bid and lead to a higher weekly close. A second higher weekly close today, above $1,237/oz, would be bullish for next week. Support is at $1,220/oz, $1,200/oz and of course what appears to be a double bottom at $1,180/oz. Sentiment towards gold remains poor despite robust physical gold demand as seen in the data from government mints and Chinese demand. "Price Of Gold Crashes" – Diversify And Buy Gold For Long Term
What is interesting is that the articles have focussed almost exclusively on price and the price in the short term – the year 2013 and the price fall since the nominal record high of $1,900/oz in August 2011. The real record high, adjusted for inflation, remains $2,400/oz – nearly 50% above today's price. It is also interesting that the articles have been full of subjective opinion – often by so called 'experts' such as those in the financial services industry. The empirical evidence regarding gold being a long term hedging instrument and safe haven asset is ignored. Most importantly, some of the media completely ignore the most important tenet of investment practice – diversification. Our clients and those who have taken our advice and allocated 5%-10% to gold bullion fared well again in 2013. Gold acted perfectly as a hedge again in 2013 – while gold was down by 28%, stocks were up 20%-30%. Investing, rather than speculation, is about the long term. Some of the media are focussing solely on the short term. This is a form of data mining looking solely at the performance of gold since August 2011 and last year, rather than over long term – 5, 10, 20, 40 years. The long term outlook for gold remains positive due to a combination of macroeconomic, systemic, geo-political and monetary risks. Banks and the banking system pose risks to investors and savers today and there is real risks with regard to bail-ins and deposit confiscation. In the coming years, gold will protect investors from the possibility of further falls in stock and property markets and property and stock market crashes. Indeed, it will protect investors from falls in bond prices many of which are at all-time record highs. Finally, it will protect savers and those with cash deposits from the risk of bail-ins and deposit confiscation. Gold has been subject to rigorous analysis by leading financial academics in recent years. In science, empirical evidence is required for a hypothesis to gain acceptance in the scientific community. Normally, acceptance and validation is achieved by the scientific method of hypothesis commitment, experimental design, peer review, adversarial review, reproduction of results, conference presentation and publication in a journal. Unfortunately, in the investment community little empirical evidence is required for the hypothesis – gold is a speculation or a risky investment that has crashed – to gain acceptance. All it takes is a few vested interests and their subjective opinion and a lack of understanding and willingness to look at the facts, data and academic research. As ever, we thought it best to consult an academic who has conducted much research on gold as an asset to get his opinions regarding gold's recent price falls. Dr Constantin Gurdgiev is the adjunct lecturer in finance in Trinity College, Dublin (TCD) and was previously a member of the Investment Committee of GoldCore. Dr Gurdgiev has engaged in much evidence based academic research on gold. He found that gold is a “hedging instrument and a safe haven” and presented his findings to the World Bank, ECB and BIS nearly three years ago. Dr Gurdgiev On Gold As Important Long Term Diversification Gold is a long-term risk management asset, not a speculative one. As such it should be analysed and treated predominantly in the context of its role as a part of a properly structured, risk-balanced and diversified portfolio spanning the full life-cycle of the investment and pension horizon for individual investors and those with pensions – whether they be SIPPs in the UK or IRAs in the USA. Sadly, much of the media coverage concerning gold commonly fails to distinguish the risk management properties of this asset class. Instead, media commentary often focuses on single point-in-time price changes, usually based on timings selected with the hindsight ‘knowledge’. Such analysis is fallacious, misinformed, if not outright financially misleading. As such, gold acts not only as a traditional hedge and safe haven with respect to ‘normal’ or ‘continuous’ risks present in the global financial markets, but also a hedge against large scale tail events. There is virtually no other asset class, excluding sub-class of AAA-rated sovereign bonds (with some major caveats), that offers such hedging opportunities. Tail risk events often witness significant destruction of commonly traded equities and fixed income instruments. The best exemplifications of this fallacy are wholly erroneous comparatives between gold price changes and individual stocks price movements involving stocks with high recent exposure to survivorship risk, such as banks equities. Quoting individual stocks without adjusting for survivorship risk presents a misleading picture of risk-returns relationship that does serious disservice to the public. Quoting such differences immediately after a major tail risk event, such as the global financial crisis, is outright wrong, full stop. Even more erroneous are comparatives between the short-term gold price movements effects on individual investors and the property price changes. The two asset classes are vastly different in terms of (1) risks involved in investing in the underlying instruments, (2) availability of different instruments in different markets, (3) leveraging involved in purchasing of these assets, (4) pricing of these assets (commodity vs idiosyncratic non-homogenous assets), (5) liquidity risks, (6) transactions costs, (7) other risk hedging properties. Such comparatives, as the result, offer a grossly oversimplified view of investment markets. Speculative appraisals based on highly selective ex-post market timings and prices comparatives, or absurd comparatives across vastly different asset classes, whilst ignoring major risks underlying returns to specific asset classes and even individual equities, is over-simplifying and misleading at best.”
It is very important to look at the facts, the figures and the academic research on gold. Dr Brian Lucey, also of Trinity College Dublin (TCD) has also frequently researched the gold market. Dr Lucey and Dr Gurdgiev had an excellent research paper on gold published in August 2013 which has been ignored by the financial services industry and much of the media. They researched the gold market and their paper 'Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates' concluded that gold is a hedge against U.S. dollar and British pound risk due to "its monetary asset role." Dr Lucey has consistently pointed out how physical gold is financial insurance or a hedge against political uncertainty. Both have advocated an allocation to physical gold in an investment and pension portfolio. History Some of the many times when gold protected people's wealth are – Germany in the 1920's, much of the world in the 1930's, China in 1949, the western world in the 1970's, the USSR in 1990, Argentina in 1989 and 2001, Zimbabwe in 2008 and indeed much of the western world since 2007 and the financial crisis. Last year, gold protected people in Cyprus from the deposit confiscation. History clearly shows that individuals, families and companies that own gold have fared much better than those who do not.
CONCLUSION | ||
| Posted: 10 Jan 2014 05:43 AM PST While speculators have reduced their net long gold positions from a high of 254,000 contracts in August 2011 to around 34,000 contracts as of year-end, the physical market has been booming. | ||
| Huge News: Iran, Russia negotiating big oil-for-goods deal Posted: 10 Jan 2014 02:36 AM PST Stacy Summary: I should imagine that, if true, this story will cause a mighty stir of outrage in DC and on the US airwaves. And notice that, no matter where you look – from bitcoin to Turkey’s gold for oil deals – new means of exchange and trade (sometimes a return to old means) are in danger of supplanting our current dollar reserve based system. And also note that restrictions often lead to the exact opposite of intention for the bully in the equation forces the entity facing restrictions to innovate where before they could have been lazy instead. Iran, Russia negotiating big oil-for-goods deal
 Flag of oily convenience? | ||
| Lawrence Williams: Wishful Thinking on Gold—But For All the Right Reasons Posted: 10 Jan 2014 02:31 AM PST "We get the jobs report at 8:30 a.m. EST---and I'm expecting the usual price shenanigans" ¤ Yesterday In Gold & SilverIt was pretty quiet in the gold market yesterday. The smallish rally that began after the 10:30 a.m. London gold fix got dealt with in the usual manner once Comex trading began in New York at 8:20 a.m.---as the did the smallish rally that started at noon EST. All in all, the Thursday trading session was a mini version of what happened on Tuesday and Wednesday. The high and low price ticks aren't even worth my time to look up. The gold price closed yesterday at $1,227.70 spot, which was up $1.80 from Wednesday's close. Volume, net of roll-overs out of the February contract, was extremely light at around 81,000 contracts. I mentioned in this space yesterday that I was wondering about all of the activity in the out-of-the money futures month in 2015 and 2016. I remembered to ask Ted for his opinion---and he said that he was almost certain that these contracts represented one leg of spread trade, so my take on it was wrong. The silver chart for Thursday looked like its golden cousin, and was also a mini version of its Tuesday and Wednesday silver charts as well, with the sell-offs coming at the precisely the same moments. The low and high ticks, such as they were, were reported by the CME as $19.38 and $19.71 in the March contract. Silver closed on Thursday in New York at $19.545 spot, down 2.5 cents from Wednesday---and as you can tell from the chart below, if a willing seller hadn't put in an appearance five minutes before the Comex close yesterday, the silver price would have finished materially higher. That applies to the gold price as well. Gross volume in silver was 38,000 contracts, which was a 20% decline from Wednesday's volume figures---but still pretty chunky for what should have been a 'low volume' day. JPMorgan et al played "Whack-A-Mole" with the platinum price yesterday, with the first hit coming at the Comex open as the price was about to go vertical. There were two other rallies in New York that were dispatched in the same manner, with the last one coming at the 1:30 p.m. EST Comex close. Palladium didn't do much. Here are the charts. The dollar index closed on Wednesday afternoon in New York at 81.08---and then didn't do much until 1 p.m. Hong Kong time. Then it sank down to 80.91 just after 9 a.m. in London. The rather tepid rally from there rolled over about three hours later---and the index began to head south with a vengeance. Not surprisingly, there was someone there waiting to catch that falling knife at the 80.87 mark---and the index blasted up to 81.16 in less than 30 minutes. From there it drifted lower in fits and starts, closing the Thursday session around 80.94---which was down 14 basis points on the day. The gold stocks gapped down about a percent at the open---and then chopped higher until five minutes before the Comex close. And as you already know, it was at that point "da boyz" showed up and stepped on the gold and silver prices for the second time during the New York session---and the rest, as they say, is history. The HUI finished down 1.47%, almost on its low of the day. The silver stocks opened almost unchanged, but then headed south immediately---and never looked back. Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index closed down a chunky 3.37%. The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that no silver or gold contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Monday. I can't remember the last time when there no deliveries posted in both metals on the same day. There were no reported changes in GLD on Thursday---and as of 9:43 p.m. EST yesterday evening, there were no reported changes in SLV, either. But when I checked their website at 3:26 a.m. EST this morning, I was amazed to discover that 1,443,633 troy ounces had been deposited in SLV yesterday. Go figure! The good folks over at Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank finally got around to updating their gold and silver ETFs. The last report I got from them was way back on December 13. The data in this report is from January 3. In the three week reporting interval, their gold ETF showed withdrawals totaling 100,635 troy ounces---and their silver ETF declined by 631,022 troy ounces. Joshua Gibbons, the "Guru of the SLV Bar List", updated his website with SLV's closing report for this week---and here is what he had to say: "Analysis of the 08 January 2014 bar list, and comparison to the previous week's list -- 1,580,571.2 troy ounces were removed (all from Brinks London), and no bars were was added or had a serial number change." "The bars removed were from: Handy Harman (0.9M oz), Asarco (0.3M oz), Degussa (0.2M oz), and 14 others. As of the time that the bar list was produced, it was overallocated 285.7 troy ounces. All daily changes are reflected on the bar list." The link to Joshua's website is here. As usual, there was nothing from the U.S. Mint, as there webpage still shows the 2013 year. Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday, they didn't report receiving any gold, but 63,976 troy ounces were shipped out---and all except 100 ounces of that came out of the Scotia Mocatta warehouse. The link to that activity is here. It was another big day in silver at these same depositories. Nothing was reported received, but 1,354,270 troy ounces were reported sent out the door. Brink's, Inc. and Scotia Mocatta is where virtually all the action was---and the link to that is here. Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com had a juicy little tidbit/scoop for me/us in the wee hours of this morning, which I'm more than happy to share with you here. Nick was checking to see if the official gold imports into China through Hong Kong for November had been posted. They had, but he didn't have time to update the chart, so I'll have that for you in tomorrow's column. But here's what he did pick up from that website: "In addition to the heightened Chinese imports, they imported an astounding 15.44 tonnes [of gold coins] in November, well above their long term average of 1.4 tonnes. This number is almost double any other monthly import of gold coins into China over the last 12 years, their second highest import month is June 2011 with 8.57 tonnes. Can't wait to see December imports of gold coins into China!!!" Nick also sent the screen shot of the relevant data from their website. It's all "Greek" to me, of course, but Nick says that the confirming data is in there. One has to wonder where all these gold coins were minted, as it would take a fair chunk of time to convert that much bullion into a finished product. Maybe there will be more information forthcoming in the days and weeks ahead. I have a decent number of stories for you today, and most of them are worth reading if you have the time. ¤ Critical Reads The Most Reliable Indicator of An Approaching Market TopHowever, the most reliable indicator of risk—although not as precise as money flow—is sentiment. It won’t give you the exact day, week or even month of an important market turn. We use our other indicators for that. However, it does give you a great indication when the market is getting very vulnerable near a top, and a bargain near a bottom. At market tops, there is almost unanimous bullish sentiment. The biggest money managers, the analysts most featured in the media, and the public are all bullish and declare that the bull market will continue for a long time. Caution is thrown to the wind. Money managers abandon the practice of keeping a cash cushion in their clients’ portfolios. They are fully invested. Some may ask, why is this bullish sentiment not positive for the market? The answer is simple: when everyone is fully invested, there is no money left to drive stock prices higher. When finally the evidence says that perhaps the environment isn’t as great as thought, the selling starts. But money managers can’t buy more stocks at lower prices because they are already fully invested. Therefore, the decline continues, the selling accelerates, the bad news items become more frequent. And that is how bear markets start. This most excellent commentary by Bert Dohmen of Dohmen Capital Research Group was posted on the Forbes website on Monday afternoon...and I consider it a must read for sure. I thank reader U.D. for today's first posting.  Big Six U.S. Banks' 2013 Profit Thwarted by Legal CostsCombined profit at the six largest U.S. banks jumped last year to the highest level since 2006, even as the firms allocated more than $18 billion to deal with claims they broke laws or cheated investors. A stock-market rally, cost cuts and a decline in bad loans boosted the group’s net income 21 percent to $74.1 billion, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s second only to 2006, when the firms reaped $84.6 billion at the peak of the U.S. housing bubble. The record would have been topped were it not for litigation and other legal expenses. Wall Street’s largest banks, set to report fourth-quarter earnings starting Jan. 14, are contending with fresh accusations they misled buyers of mortgage-backed securities, rigged markets or turned a blind eye to suspicious activity by customers. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, whose company announced more than $23 billion in settlements of government and private disputes in the past 12 months, has said legal expenses at his firm will remain high. Let's call these legal expenses by their real name, dear reader---and that is they are licensing fees, a cost of doing business. I doubt very much that this will change as the years roll by. This Bloomberg story was posted on their Internet site early yesterday morning Denver time...and I thank reader Ken Hurt for sending it our way.  The New Bill Gross Trade Is Getting SlammedBill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund at PIMCO, is out with his latest monthly investment outlook today. His advice: don't fight the Fed. Bet that it will keep its commitment to stimulating the economy via zero interest-rate policy for the next two years — even as it winds down its bond-buying program — by moving your money out of the long end of the interest rate curve and into the short end. Gross expects the curve to steepen (i.e., he expects interest rates in the long end to rise faster than those in the short end) as the Federal Reserve tapers quantitative easing throughout 2014 while at the same time keeping the commitment laid out by its forward guidance to hold its policy rate — to which rates on bonds in the short end of the curve are tied — at current levels between 0.00 and 0.25% for the next two years. This news item was posted on the businessinsider.com Internet site late yesterday morning...and it the first contribution of the day from Roy Stephens. REPORT: Dell Layoffs Are About To Hit And Could Be HugeDell has been working its way up to a massive layoff and the pink slips could be coming any time now, the Register reports. Sources told the Register that Dell may lay off as many as 20% of its U.S. sales and marketing people and 30% of its sales and marketing staff in Europe. It's hard to say how many actual jobs will be cut across Dell's entire employee base of 111,300 people. Dell sent us this statement that neither confirms nor denies a pending layoff, nor the number of jobs involved. Along with the bad news from Macy's and Sears...this sort of new story should come as no surprise now that the Christmas season is over and the true state of retails sales in America become apparent. I thank 'David in California' for sending this our way.  JPMorgan To Exit Foodstamp, Other Prepaid Cards BusinessMess with us, we'll mess with you. That is the message one can derive from JPMorgan's surprise announcement that it plans to "sell or wind down its business of issuing prepaid cards for corporate payrolls and government tax refunds and benefits." Which also includes the infamous Electronic Benefits Transfer, or foodstamps, card. According to Reuters, the product, which has been offered with cash and treasury services to companies and governments, "had become a headache of risks in operations and regulations, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorized to speak publicly." Curiously, it was just over two years ago when JPM said this about its EBT business: "This business is a very important business to JP Morgan,” Christopher Paton, the company’s managing director of treasury services, told Bloomberg News in 2011. “It’s an important business in terms of its size and scale. We also regard it as very important in the sense that we are delivering a very useful social function. We are a key part of this benefit delivery mechanism. Right now volumes have gone through the roof in the past couple of years or so … The good news from JP Morgan’s perspective is the infrastructure that we built has been able to cope with that increase in volume." This very interesting article showed up on the Zero Hedge website during the New York lunch hour yesterday...and it's the second offering of the day from reader 'David in California'.  Officers at U.S. nuclear missile base suspended in illegal drugs caseTwo officers whose hands were on the nation’s nuclear trigger have been suspended from duty for alleged possession of illegal drugs, Air Force officials told NBC News on Thursday. The two ICBM missile launch officers are assigned to the 341st Air Wing at Malmstrom Air Force base in Montana and would be responsible for launching nuclear-armed Minuteman 3 intercontinental ballistic missiles. The security clearances for the two have been suspended, effectively relieving them from duty pending an investigation into the alleged possession of illegal drugs. This NBC News story was posted on their Internet site late Thursday afternoon EST...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for sharing it with us.  U.S. government attempts to block lawsuit against NSALawyers from the Justice Department have urged a judge to halt a lawsuit against the NSA’s spy programs. This comes after the judge’s previous ruling that the NSA’s collection of metadata was likely unconstitutional and "almost Orwellian" in nature. On Wednesday, government lawyers appealed to US District Court Judge Richard Leon to put court proceedings on hold for two lawsuits against the NSA filed by conservative legal activist, Larry Klayman. Klayman has challenged the legality of the NSA’s programs that collect and store the metadata of American citizens on a massive scale. The lawyers argued that if the lawsuits were allowed to go further, they would lead to the disclosure of classified information which would represent a “significant risk” to national security. This news item put in an appearance on the Russia Today website early Thursday afternoon Moscow time, which was very early in the morning in New York. I thank South African reader B.V. for finding it for us. Record number of Americans now identify as politically independentA record number of Americans, 42 percent, now say they identify politically as an independent, more than the number of those who say they are Democrat or Republican, according to a new poll. The Gallup figures published Wednesday are the latest reason to celebrate for independents, who have seen their numbers steadily on the rise during the partisan bickering that has plagued Washington through the Bush and Obama presidential administrations. Meanwhile, self-identified Republicans fell to 25 percent, the lowest total for the GOP in 25 years, while democratic identification has remained consistent at 31 percent over the past four years since dropping from 36 percent in 2008. This Russian Today news item was posted on their Internet site in the wee hours of Thursday morning Moscow time...and it's the second contribution in a row from reader B.V.  European parliament invites Edward Snowden to testify via videoA European parliament committee has invited Edward Snowden to testify via video link in its investigation of U.S. surveillance practices. The justice and civil liberties committee voted 36-2 with one abs | ||
| Five King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews Posted: 10 Jan 2014 02:31 AM PST  Five King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews 1. Art Cashin: "Major Markets, Fed Minutes...and Europe". 2. Ronald-Peter Stoferle: "10 of the Most Shocking Charts You Will Ever See". 3. John Ing: "This Surprise Will Stun Traders and Rock the Markets In 2014". 4. Keith Barron: "Major Players to Corner the Gold Market in 2014". 5. The audio interview is with Rick Rule. | ||
| Alasdair Macleod: Index trackers and their effect on gold and silver futures Posted: 10 Jan 2014 02:31 AM PST  Alasdair Macleod: Index trackers and their effect on gold and silver futures GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod writes today that increased weightings of gold and silver in two major market indexes are likely to put upward pressure on precious metals prices. | ||
| Bank of America Merrill Lynch slashes gold call to $1,150 and warns it could get uglier Posted: 10 Jan 2014 02:31 AM PST  Bank of America Merrill Lynch slashes gold call to $1,150 and warns it could get uglier In one of the first, if not the first, calls on gold this year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch slashed its average 2014 forecast for the shiny stuff by 11% to $1,150 an ounce on Thursday, with a warning it could get even uglier. | ||
| How the Big Guns Are Playing Gold Mining Stocks Posted: 10 Jan 2014 02:31 AM PST How the Big Guns Are Playing Gold Mining Stocks You could argue only fools would buy gold mining stocks today. If that’s the case, there may be a lot of idiot savants out there. The Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3x Shares exchange-traded fund, which uses leverage to amp up exposure to mining stocks, is down more than 90 percent over 12 months, yet assets have risen from $460 million to $642 million. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, down 51 percent, has seen assets jump from $2.5 billion to $6.7 billion. Gold bullion, meanwhile, is down 25 percent. It’s easy to chalk up the funds' growth to the contrarian kookiness of gold bugs. The truth is more complicated. Institutional investors see unusual opportunities in gold mining stocks. Some figure the gap between the prices of gold bullion and mining stocks is so wide that they can make profitable bets on that valuation gap narrowing. Others see improvements in management and operations of miners. A third group likes mining stocks simply because they hope to profit from the stocks' volatility. This must read Bloomberg commentary was posted on their website yesterday morning Mountain Standard Time...and my thanks go out to Washington state reader S.A. for bringing it to our attention. | ||
| India eases gold lending rules Posted: 10 Jan 2014 02:31 AM PST  India eases gold lending rules Under the new rules, non-banking finance companies can lend up to 75% of the value of gold, from 60%. The central bank revised the rules because their gold loan portfolios were showing only moderate growth. Lending against gold is a fast-growing business in the Indian economy, and the industry is valued at more than $20bn (£12bn). This tiny story was posted on the bbc.co.uk Internet site early yesterday morning EST...and I thank Ulrike Marx for her second offering in today's column. | ||
| Silver inventory reaches 16-year high after worst rout since 1981 Posted: 10 Jan 2014 02:31 AM PST  Silver inventory reaches 16-year high after worst rout since 1981 Stockpiles on the Comex in New York touched 176.28 million ounces today, the highest since July 1997. Inventories have climbed for seven straight sessions, the longest stretch since February. The supplies rose for a third year in 2013, the longest span of annual gains in a decade. “This could well be an indication that demand has slowed down to an extent,” Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. The drop may also reflect eroding investor interest in silver exchange-traded products, he said. Blah, blah, blah yet again. I'll have more on this in The Wrap, as Ted Butler wrote about this very subject in his mid-week column to paying subscribers on Wednesday. This short Bloomberg story showed up on the mineweb.com Internet site yesterday...and I thank reader Neil West for sliding it into my in-box late last night MST. | ||
| Lawrence Williams: Wishful thinking on gold – but for all the right reasons Posted: 10 Jan 2014 02:31 AM PST Lawrence Williams: Wishful thinking on gold – but for all the right reasons The pro-gold fraternity has been unwavering in its positive utterances on where the gold price is headed, while mainstream analysts disagree. But longer term China will likely hold the key. The strong pro-gold commentators have at least been consistent in their views on gold and where it is headed. Indeed, they may well be partly correct in their views, but the timescales over which their scenarios will likely be played out, and the price levels likely to be reached, are indeed more wishful thinking than reality. True, gold made a promising start to the year, but already seems to be beginning to waver as the New York bankers and traders get back to work after the Christmas/New Year break which seems to be getting more like the European one in longevity. One shouldn’t forget that last year’s high point for gold for the year was achieved on January 2nd and it was mostly the downward slope from then on, exacerbated by some remarkably strange COMEX trading from time to time in the process. That is not to say that the gold price will follow the same kind of pattern in the year ahead, but one doubts it is likely to rise as far and as fast as the out and out gold wishful thinkers might have us believe. As we have already pointed out in these pages there is still plenty of scope for downwards pressures to come into play and many of the bank analysts, for example, are predicting yet more tough times ahead for gold investors, although a downwards path throughout the year is no longer quite as unanimous among this particular fraternity – renowned for its reactive forecasts rather than its truly analytical ones. This commentary by Lawrie certainly falls into the must read category. It was posted on the mineweb.com Internet site yesterday...and I thank Ulrike Marx for today's last story, and her third and final contribution to today's column. | ||
| Coin shortages and rationing are in our future Posted: 10 Jan 2014 01:01 AM PST The extraordinary demand for precious metals coins following the 2008 global financial crisis caught the minting industry by surprise, resulting in never before seen coin rationing and shortages. It seems not much has changed, with recent reports that the UK Royal Mint ran out of 2014 Sovereign gold coins due to "exceptional demand", as well as the continuation for over one year of an allocation program first put into place early 2013 by the US Mint on its ever popular silver Eagle bullion coins. While these recent events have been limited to specific coins, with availability of other leading bullion coins like the Perth Mint's gold Kangaroo not affected, it does seem to indicate that worldwide minting production capacity is still unable to meet demand surges. I have been talking about this issue for some time, as in this July 2012 interview and here. The 2008 global financial crisis did result in private and public mints expanding their production capacity. The Perth Mint, for example, has spent over $50m since 2008 on improvements to existing machinery as well as new and expanded facilities. However, it is little appreciated that the bottleneck in the global coin minting process is blank (planchet) manufacture. This is a far more complex process than simple stamping of a coin, particularly around purity and accurate weight control. As a result, blank manufacture is a process that benefits from economies of scale and thus few mints these days make their own blanks, outsourcing the process to a limited number of private and public suppliers, of which the Perth Mint is one. If you dig deep, you will find that many of the coin supply problems come from underestimation of demand and the resulting exhausting of blank inventories. Often, blank suppliers are mints themselves and can face conflicts where they earn more by prioritising blanks for internal use rather than supply externally. Running higher blank inventories is often not an option, due to the cost of funding the high dollar value of the inventory. To get an idea of how high coin premiums can go when coin demand overwhelms production capacity, consider this chart from Nick at www.sharelynx.com  The 2008 premiums were celebrated by some at that time as a proof of a physical-paper price disconnect and a "good thing". The fact is that there was plenty of supply of the raw gold or silver (the Perth Mint at one stage was shipping in 20 tonnes of silver each week for weeks on end from London with no problems). High premiums are actually not a good thing, because it means that the same money buys (and takes off the market) less ounces. Notwithstanding the capacity expansion by blank suppliers over the past five years, in my opinion there is no way the industry can meet the demand that would occur were precious metals to see even a small bit of interest from the mass market. While cast bars are a lot easier to make and refiners are much more casting production capacity, I am not even sure if it could meet sustained mass market demand. For now 2008 style shortages and rationing don't seem to be on the horizon but the fact that the UK and US Mint are having supply issues on a few of their product with metal prices at these low levels is an idicator that as prices rise and (re)attract investor interest, shortages and rationing may become a reality of coin buying life again. | ||
| Bullion and Energy Market Commentary Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:55 AM PST oilngold | ||
| TECHNICAL - Gold Set Up is Similar to 6 Months Ago Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:55 AM PST dailyfx | ||
| Gold Technicals – Maintaining Bearish Posture Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:50 AM PST forexnews | ||
| Gold Price Analysis- Jan. 10, 2014 Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:50 AM PST dailyforex | ||
| CHARTS: Have Gold and Silver Stocks Bottomed? Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:45 AM PST minyanville | ||
| Wishful thinking on gold – but for all the right reasons Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:45 AM PST mineweb | ||
| Atlas Pulse Gold Investor Report: Is there really too much debt? Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:41 AM PST The Atlas Pulse Gold Investor Report has been producing thought provoking commentary on the gold and silver markets for over a year now – whether it's the most incredible silver chart you've... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] | ||
| Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis January 10, 2014 Forecast – Silver Posted: 10 Jan 2014 12:35 AM PST fxempire |
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