Gold World News Flash |
- Moody’s ups bearish view on 2014 gold and silver prices
- Japanese Consumer Sentiment Slumps - Biggest 6-Month Drop Since 2007
- Dollar Hurting Gold, Low Inflation Looming On ECB: Wyckoff
- When Deflation Becomes Hyperinflation
- Index Trackers and Their Effect on Gold and Silver Futures
- Will Silver Price Rebound in 2014?
- Janet Yellen - The Nation's New Chief Slumlord
- How to set up a good precious metals defense – Lostritto
- Markets keep gold on the defensive
- Can’t-miss headlines: Gold calm, Carpathian shuts RDM mine down – for now & more
- Silver inventory reaches 16-year high after worst rout since ’81
- Commodity ETPs suffer worst year on record in 2013
- Jim Rickards on the currency wars and Jim Hamilton the Fed, fracking and peak oil
- Gold mine deals seen rebounding as valuations languish at lows
- Gold: Time to Buy
- Harmony Gold may cut 120 jobs in mine reorganization – UASA
- Index Trackers and Their Effect on Gold and Silver Futures
- Comex Gold Inventory: Do You Really Trust The Banks?
- Comex Gold Inventory: Do You Really Trust The Banks?
- 23 Reasons to Be Bullish on Gold
- GOLD Elliott Wave Analysis: Correction Within Downtrend
- Gold Price Support from Chinese New Year "Set to Wane", Biggest ETF Drops 60% from Peak Value
- Alasdair Macleod: Index trackers and their effect on gold and silver futures
- Precious Metals Market Report
- Comex Stocks: Claims On Bullion Well Below Historical Highs At 5:1
- Gold and Silver Sentiment Update
- The Lombardi Method of Gold Stocks Investing
| Moody’s ups bearish view on 2014 gold and silver prices Posted: 09 Jan 2014 10:40 AM PST by Lawrence Williams, MineWeb.com:
"These lower prices expectations reflect significant deterioration in the spot price of gold and silver to about $1,200/oz and $20/oz, respectively, and fundamentals that seem unfavorable over the next couple of years as the global economy maintains forward momentum, governments unwind various stimulus programs, and the threat of inflation remains subdued in most major economies," said Moody's Investor Service in an announcement published Wednesday. |
| Japanese Consumer Sentiment Slumps - Biggest 6-Month Drop Since 2007 Posted: 09 Jan 2014 10:23 AM PST Japanese consumer sentiment tumbled once again in the last quarter of 2013. The BoJ survey - released quarterly - showed the second consecutive drop in both current conditions and the outlook. This is the largest two-quarter collapse in the outlook for the Japanese consumer since 2007 as it appears the initial exuberance of Abenomics is collapsing as fast as Abe's approval ratings. We fear, perhaps, this loss of belief (which can surely only set back his hopes for firms to raise wages) is merely stoking his nationalist militarist persuasion - as indicated by his move last night.
This is the lowest print since Abenomics was unveiled... Data: Bloomberg |
| Dollar Hurting Gold, Low Inflation Looming On ECB: Wyckoff Posted: 09 Jan 2014 10:20 AM PST from KitcoNews: Kitco News gets Jim Wyckoff’s take on the gold and silver market as we start the new year. Wyckoff remains bearish on both metals and attributes low prices to a higher U.S. dollar index and slow U.S. economic recovery. “The trend recently in U.S. economic data has been to be upbeat,” Wyckoff says. “Until that trend changes, I continue to look for more upbeat economic data coming, including probably an upbeat jobs report on Friday.” Looking over at Europe, Wyckoff says that data this week shows low inflation in the eurozone which implies the ECB will continue with its easing monetary policy. “That should be an underlying positive factor for gold although the euro currency has been under some pressure this week, despite some better economic data coming out of the EU,” he adds. Watch now to hear Wyckoff’s key support & resistance levels for gold & silver on the first week of 2014. |
| When Deflation Becomes Hyperinflation Posted: 09 Jan 2014 10:19 AM PST As we begin 2014; it seems incredible to me that we still have what is known as "an inflation/deflation debate" raging. But a debate which was merely frustrating five years ago is now absurd; because it is founded on an entirely false paradigm. What is logically implied in this "debate" is that spiraling inflation or crushing deflation are alternative scenarios; when, in fact, it has been patently obvious for many years that these two forms of economic cataclysm not only can be but must be concurrent (if not simultaneous) scenarios. Here I can claim no personal credit, as others saw the degeneration in the West into literal "Ponzi economies" sooner than myself. Darryl Schoon (for one) recently noted his own previous work in this area, and he, in turn, credited Bill Bonner with reaching this conclusion earlier than himself, going all the way back to 2006. Even beyond this; there has been the work of John Williams, the eminent producer/creator of Shadowstats.com. It is Mr. Williams who first made the quantum leap in analysis in noting as our debt-saturated economies crumbled towards collapse – and fiat money-printing increased exponentially as a result – that "inflation" and "deflation" were not competing scenarios. He coined the term "hyperinflationary depression", one which I subsequently adopted in my own work. As we careen into a Greater Depression with nothing but "the Great Depression" to guide us as a template; what caused John Williams (alone among all analysts) to realize that this time it is different? Much like we could classify the fictional genius of Sherlock Holmes as "mere observation"; we could similarly abbreviate Williams' brilliance as "mere arithmetic". What is different in the Greater Depression unfolding before us today, versus the Great Depression which occurred one Kondratieff Winter before this? It's the arithmetic. With few exceptions; all the larger economies in the world of 1929 were solvent, and (prior to the Great Depression) relatively healthy. The anemic, debt-saturated husks of the 21st century bear absolutely no resemblance to the robust economies of that era. A healthy person can suffer through a serious illness, or engage in a stringent diet (or even fasting), and then expect to recover their vitality once the illness or self-imposed fasting had ended. However; put someone already suffering from anorexia on a severe diet and you kill them. The Great Depression of 1929 was an economic catastrophe; a severe illness inflicted upon otherwise healthy economies. The Greater Depression of the 21st century is an existential event; where the current economic order is in a terminal descent. It is the combination of a severe economic epidemic ravaging a collection of already economically-crippled nations which makes these two, seemingly parallel catastrophes entirely distinct events. Specifically, it is all about simple arithmetic. What were most of the nations of the Great Depression-era forced to do, in order to help their own populations weather that economic storm? They borrowed more money, generally much more. To use some of our own, modern vernacular; they "ran up their credit cards." What is the recourse of the debt-saturated economies of the 21st century, as this Greater Depression descends upon us? Our "credit-cards" are already maxed-out. And so these sovereign Deadbeat Debtors of the 21st century print 'money': more and more and more of it, backed by nothing – not even their own "IOU's". Here we see the prediction of John Williams manifest itself in black-and-white (in a chart which regular readers are undoubtedly sick of seeing): |
| Index Trackers and Their Effect on Gold and Silver Futures Posted: 09 Jan 2014 10:05 AM PST There are two main indices tracked by commodity tracker funds: the S&P-Goldman Sachs Commodities Index and the Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index. According to S&P Indices (which manages both), total assets estimated at $155bn track these two indices, of which $75bn tracks the former, and the balance of $80bn the latter. Both indices are rebalanced in the first two weeks of January starting last Wednesday, and according to an S&P press release, this will lead to $1.1bn extra being invested in gold contracts. |
| Will Silver Price Rebound in 2014? Posted: 09 Jan 2014 09:30 AM PST John Paul Whitefoot writes: The year 2013 was not kind to gold; the yellow metal closed the year down about 28%—its biggest annual drop in three decades. But in spite of the awful year for gold, it wasn’t the worst-performing metal in 2013. That dubious distinction goes to silver. On the heels of quantitative easing, a devaluation of the dollar, and inflation, safe haven investors were expecting silver prices to trade in the $30.00–$50.00-an-ounce range. Sadly for these investors, that did not come to fruition. |
| Janet Yellen - The Nation's New Chief Slumlord Posted: 09 Jan 2014 09:02 AM PST Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog, Janet Yellen's role as the nation's slumlord is masked by her apparent distance from the Fed's money spigot and the resulting institutional ownership of the nation's rental housing stock. Please welcome the nation's new chief slumlord, Janet Yellen. The previous top slumlord, Ben Bernanke, has retired from the position of Chief Slumlord (i.e. chair of the Federal Reserve) to the accolades of those who benefited from his extraordinary transfer of wealth from the many to the few. Why is the chairperson of the Fed the nation's top slumlord? Allow me to explain.We only need to understand two facts to understand the Fed's role as Slumlord. 1. Rental housing has long been a decentralized, locally owned industry. Over 90% of rental properties under 50 units have historically been owned by individuals or couples: the nation's landlords have historically been Mom and Pop, middle-class folks who saved capital and used those savings to buy a single-family home or small apartment building (duplex, triplex, four-plex) as an investment that they own and manage. Very few amass a huge portfolio of properties, as few have the income or assets (i.e. the collateral) to leverage the purchase of dozens of rental properties. Buildings up to four units qualify for conventional mortgages; small rental properties are not considered commercial properties like strip malls or large apartment complexes. This diverse, local ownership provided a wide spectrum of residential rentals. The wider the variety of rentals and owners, the greater the diversity of prices, locales and requirements. This is the essence of free enterprise: sellers (landlords) and buyers (renters) agree to price and conditions in a dynamic, open and adaptive marketplace. 2. No Mom and Pop real estate investor can compete with financial institutions who can borrow unlimited sums of money from the Federal Reserve at near-zero rates of interest. Let's start by asking what happens to the price of real estate when mortgages fall from 8% interest to 4%: prices basically double, because buyers can "afford" to pay more at low rates of interest. When conventional mortgage rates are 8%, a rental that costs $200,000 requires a 30% down payment in cash (because the buyers are not owner-occupants) or $60,000. The simple interest on a $140,000 mortgage is about $11,200 annually. (Let's use simple annual interest for simplicity's sake.) At 4%, the price can double to $400,000, with a 30% down of $120,000 and a mortgage of $280,000, and the mortgage accrues the same $11,200 in annual interest. Declining interest rates push real estate prices higher. At first glance, this doubling in price doesn't seem to affect the cost of ownership. But that is deceptive; consider how many households can scrape up $120,000 in cash compared to the number who can scrape up $60,000. The higher the price, the bigger the down payment required. The higher the down payment, the fewer the number of households who can accumulate that much cash. To households that live paycheck-to-paycheck, both sums are out of reach. But a significant number of middle class households could accumulate $60,000: such a sum could come from a family house that was sold and divided amongst the offspring, for example, or a Solo 401K that allows the retirement fund to own real estate, or from saving $5,000 a year for 12 years. The Federal Reserve's Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) was designed to push real estate prices higher. The Fed's public justification was "the wealth effect": the idea was that as the family home increased in value, homeowners would begin to borrow and spend more money due to their increased home equity. The second Fed goal was to increase home sales by lowering mortgage rates, theoretically enabling more marginal buyers to buy a home. But since prices rise as mortgage rates drop, this goal is mooted unless marginal buyers are also given a free ride on down payments and qualifying income, i.e. offered near-zero down payments and no-document mortgage qualification processes. But zero interest rates and unlimited liquidity don't just push real estate prices higher--they give institutions with access to the Fed's nearly-free money an unbeatable advantage over Mom and Pop real estate investors. Imagine being able to borrow $400,000 at 1% with zero collateral. You can now buy the rental property for cash, and pay only $4,000 in simple annual interest. And you didn't have to put up a dollar of actual collateral to buy the property. Consider the huge advantages you now have over the competing Mom and Pop bidders. Sellers typically prefer cash offers, so your cash offer (of Fed money) is more attractive than Mom and Pop's loan-based bid. If the price jumps to $500,000, Mom and Pop are blown out of the water: they don't have the additional $30,000 cash required as collateral. Thanks to the Fed, you don't need any collateral. You can borrow $500,000 as easily as $400,000, and the increase in annual interest is trivial: a mere $1,000. Now consider the operating costs: you have a $7,000 annual advantage because you have access to the Fed's nearly-free money. Mom and Pop have to pay $11,200 in simple annual interest, while you pay only $4,000. A property that is break-even to Mom and Pop reaps you a $7,000 annual profit, just because you can borrow money from the Fed for next to nothing. Now multiply the $400,000 and the $7,000 by 1,000. Now you can buy $400,000,000 of rental properties and skim $7,000,000 in annual profits, just from the advantage of having access to the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) nearly-free money. Any advantages you can accrue from economies of scale from owning tens of thousands of rental properties are also yours to keep, courtesy of the Fed. Now you understand why Janet Yellen is the nation's new top slumlord. Her policies of unlimited liquidity, QE and zero interest rates directly enable financial Elites to beat out Mom and Pop rental housing investors and buy tens of thousands of rental properties at will. Access to free money and near-zero interest rates gives institutional buyers a built-in advantage over Mom and Pop rental property owners: no collateral and free profits from super-low rates available to those closest to the Fed's QE money spigot. Institutional ownership turns the rental housing stock into a Fed-enabled financial monoculture. Individual Mom and Pop owners may not require a credit check, or they might not raise the rents very often; the odds that you will be treated as a human being are higher because the scale of the operation is small and local. To Fed-enabled Institutional landlords, you are an income stream to be skimmed.You will be processed and managed remotely, and variations are not allowed, as they mess up the profit machine. Fed-enabled Institutional landlords may or may not hire competent, responsive managerial firms to manage their thousands of properties: from the point of view of Fed-enabled Institutional landlords, the lower the costs, the larger the profits. One way to lower costs is to not respond to tenant complaints or requests for service. Another is to hire the lowest-cost (and likely understaffed) management firm. Janet Yellen's role as the nation's slumlord is masked by her apparent distance from the Fed's money spigot and the resulting institutional ownership of the nation's rental housing stock. But guess what, Chairperson Yellen: we're not fooled. Your phony facade of "progressivism" doesn't mask your real role as the nation's top slumlord. |
| How to set up a good precious metals defense – Lostritto Posted: 09 Jan 2014 08:39 AM PST Deflation, inflation and reinflation all play into scenarios for the gold price and precious metals equity markets in 2014, as outlined by Paolo Lostritto. An interview with The Gold Report. |
| Markets keep gold on the defensive Posted: 09 Jan 2014 08:39 AM PST With the mood of US investors still favouring equities over gold, it is clear that sales have been critical in holding back prices, says Julian Phillips. |
| Can’t-miss headlines: Gold calm, Carpathian shuts RDM mine down – for now & more Posted: 09 Jan 2014 08:39 AM PST The latest morning headlines, top junior developments and metal price movements. Today the gold price did very little and Carpathian said it had shut its RDM mine down due to heavy rains. |
| Silver inventory reaches 16-year high after worst rout since ’81 Posted: 09 Jan 2014 08:39 AM PST Stockpiles on the Comex in New York touched 176.28 million ounces today, the highest since July 1997. |
| Commodity ETPs suffer worst year on record in 2013 Posted: 09 Jan 2014 08:39 AM PST Commodity ETPs suffered their worst year on record in 2013 as investors dumped their gold holdings and joined the equity rally, shows data from BlackRock. |
| Jim Rickards on the currency wars and Jim Hamilton the Fed, fracking and peak oil Posted: 09 Jan 2014 08:20 AM PST from Boom Bust: Jim Rickards, author of “Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis” and the upcoming book “The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System ” sees the dollar-based fiat currency system coming to end. He spoke to us about where we are in the process. Also, Jim Hamilton, Professor of Economics at University of California, San Diego gave us a preview of what we are likely to see from Janet Yellen as Fed chair as well as for the US economy. He also gave us a deep dive into the world of fracking, explaining what shale oil can and cannot do given the dearth of cheap oil. Finally, Rachel Kurzis and Erin discuss global brands like Google, Target and Coca Cola and what they mean for companies. |
| Gold mine deals seen rebounding as valuations languish at lows Posted: 09 Jan 2014 08:12 AM PST Gold-miners are close to their cheapest relative to book value in at least two decadesand analysts say producers will be enticed to replace some of their lost output lost. |
| Posted: 09 Jan 2014 08:00 AM PST by Nick Hodge, Outsider Club:
A bottom is seemingly being carved out. The yellow metal sits at $1,235 as I type. Silver is just below $20. This is presenting us with deep value to initiate or accumulate positions. Buy bullion first and foremost. After that, a good place to look is solid junior miners with good properties and management that will rise by multiples once precious metals start heading back up. |
| Harmony Gold may cut 120 jobs in mine reorganization – UASA Posted: 09 Jan 2014 07:59 AM PST According to trade union UASA, the gold miner may fire as many as 120 staff as it focuses on mining more profitable areas. |
| Index Trackers and Their Effect on Gold and Silver Futures Posted: 09 Jan 2014 07:39 AM PST A potentially vicious bear trap is now set in both precious metals on Comex, and unless some liquidity can be whistled up from elsewhere it is difficult to see how this dangerous situation will be reconciled once the traps are triggered ... Read More... |
| Comex Gold Inventory: Do You Really Trust The Banks? Posted: 09 Jan 2014 07:27 AM PST "The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only." - The disclaimer now posted on the Comex gold and silver daily warehouse stock report as of Monday, June 3, 2013. How would you like to get your bank statement in the mail from JP Morgan or Bank of America and see this disclaimer added at the bottom: "The information in this account statement is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, JP Morgan Chase & Co. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This account statement is produced for information purposes only." What would go through your mind if that was stamped clearly on your next account statement? The CME "believes" the inventory reports are "reliable" but will not back up the accuracy. Do you trust those numbers? Before you answer that question, keep in mind that the big banks have already been accused and successfully prosecuted for reporting and business fraud in several other areas of their operations. Also keep in mind that the numbers produced by the CME on a daily basis come from reports generated by the banks themselves. The numbers ARE NOT subjected to the scrutiny of any regular independent physical audit. With that said, there has been a lot of discussion lately about the amount of gold inventory on the Comex in relation to the amount of futures contracts. The imbalance in paper vs the total amount physical gold as reported is catastrophic to the Comex should enough accounts who are long gold demand delivery. The debate and illustration of the situation with the Comex inventory reports lately have ranged from the sublime to the absurd. Earlier this week a blog post appeared out of Australia that tried to sound knowledgeable and authoritative in justifying and explaining why the distinction between "registered" stock and "eligible" stock is irrelevant. Well, if you know enough about the facts and are not too lazy to look up the actual CME published rules, you know that the CME gives the banks latitude deeper than the Mariana Trench in their accounting and reporting rules. The distinction between "eligible" and "registered" is indeed irrelevant. It's the reliability of the reports that are questionable - just ask the CME attorneys. There's another well-known newsletter proprietor who makes a healthy living selling his analysis of the CME weekly Commitment of Traders gold and silver report. He's willing to lash out at bank corruption and fraud openly and freely. And yet, for purposes of his analysis, the numbers generated to produce all Comex, CME and CFTC reports - numbers, mind you, that are generated by the banks themselves - are 100% accurate and bona fide. And he's adamant about that. Go figure. The CME completed its acquisition of the Comex in August 2008. Yet, that legal disclaimer above did not appear on the Comex gold and silver inventory reports until June 2012. Everything happens for a reason and the lack of disclaimer was not an oversight - as said silver analyst has stated. Furthermore, the only role served by the analysis produced by said Australian blogger (who happens to work for the Perth Mint which has been scrutinized in the past for its own inventory issues) is a theoretical discussion of how the banks can play a "shell game" with the inventory that they do report. The real discussion needs to focus on the legitimacy of the reports themselves. Banks by design use fractional asset/liability management and there's no reason to believe that they treat their gold holdings, whether custodial or owned, any differently. What needs to happen is we need to have an accountability system in place that is based on frequent independent audits and NOT reliant on bank generated reports. "Faith" is defined as "belief without evidence." If you want to believe that the numbers being reported by the banks which are used to produce all public reports generated and published by the Comex, then you are doing nothing more than placing faith in the banks. The only real evidence we have is that the CME will not legally backstop the numbers that are produced. How much faith do you have in the banks? |
| Comex Gold Inventory: Do You Really Trust The Banks? Posted: 09 Jan 2014 07:27 AM PST "The information in this report is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This report is produced for information purposes only." - The disclaimer now posted on the Comex gold and silver daily warehouse stock report as of Monday, June 3, 2013. How would you like to get your bank statement in the mail from JP Morgan or Bank of America and see this disclaimer added at the bottom: "The information in this account statement is taken from sources believed to be reliable; however, JP Morgan Chase & Co. disclaims all liability whatsoever with regard to its accuracy or completeness. This account statement is produced for information purposes only." What would go through your mind if that was stamped clearly on your next account statement? The CME "believes" the inventory reports are "reliable" but will not back up the accuracy. Do you trust those numbers? Before you answer that question, keep in mind that the big banks have already been accused and successfully prosecuted for reporting and business fraud in several other areas of their operations. Also keep in mind that the numbers produced by the CME on a daily basis come from reports generated by the banks themselves. The numbers ARE NOT subjected to the scrutiny of any regular independent physical audit. With that said, there has been a lot of discussion lately about the amount of gold inventory on the Comex in relation to the amount of futures contracts. The imbalance in paper vs the total amount physical gold as reported is catastrophic to the Comex should enough accounts who are long gold demand delivery. The debate and illustration of the situation with the Comex inventory reports lately have ranged from the sublime to the absurd. Earlier this week a blog post appeared out of Australia that tried to sound knowledgeable and authoritative in justifying and explaining why the distinction between "registered" stock and "eligible" stock is irrelevant. Well, if you know enough about the facts and are not too lazy to look up the actual CME published rules, you know that the CME gives the banks latitude deeper than the Mariana Trench in their accounting and reporting rules. The distinction between "eligible" and "registered" is indeed irrelevant. It's the reliability of the reports that are questionable - just ask the CME attorneys. There's another well-known newsletter proprietor who makes a healthy living selling his analysis of the CME weekly Commitment of Traders gold and silver report. He's willing to lash out at bank corruption and fraud openly and freely. And yet, for purposes of his analysis, the numbers generated to produce all Comex, CME and CFTC reports - numbers, mind you, that are generated by the banks themselves - are 100% accurate and bona fide. And he's adamant about that. Go figure. The CME completed its acquisition of the Comex in August 2008. Yet, that legal disclaimer above did not appear on the Comex gold and silver inventory reports until June 2012. Everything happens for a reason and the lack of disclaimer was not an oversight - as said silver analyst has stated. Furthermore, the only role served by the analysis produced by said Australian blogger (who happens to work for the Perth Mint which has been scrutinized in the past for its own inventory issues) is a theoretical discussion of how the banks can play a "shell game" with the inventory that they do report. The real discussion needs to focus on the legitimacy of the reports themselves. Banks by design use fractional asset/liability management and there's no reason to believe that they treat their gold holdings, whether custodial or owned, any differently. What needs to happen is we need to have an accountability system in place that is based on frequent independent audits and NOT reliant on bank generated reports. "Faith" is defined as "belief without evidence." If you want to believe that the numbers being reported by the banks which are used to produce all public reports generated and published by the Comex, then you are doing nothing more than placing faith in the banks. The only real evidence we have is that the CME will not legally backstop the numbers that are produced. How much faith do you have in the banks? |
| 23 Reasons to Be Bullish on Gold Posted: 09 Jan 2014 07:00 AM PST by Laurynas Vegys, Gold Seek:
Perhaps worse has been the onslaught of negative press our favorite metal has suffered. It’s felt overwhelming at times and has pushed even some die-hard goldbugs to question their beliefs… not a bad thing, by the way. To me, a lot of it felt like piling on, especially as the negative rhetoric ratcheted up. Last year’s winner was probably Goldman Sachs, calling gold a “slam-dunk sale” for 2014 (this, of course, after it’s already fallen by nearly a third over a period of more than two and a half years—how daring they are). |
| GOLD Elliott Wave Analysis: Correction Within Downtrend Posted: 09 Jan 2014 06:17 AM PST A sharp reversal on gold from 1181 suggests that decline from 1267 is completed five wave move, so current upward reaction should be a temporary corrective retracement. Corrections are three wave patterns so be aware of more upside after ... Read More... |
| Gold Price Support from Chinese New Year "Set to Wane", Biggest ETF Drops 60% from Peak Value Posted: 09 Jan 2014 05:57 AM PST GOLD PRICE action was dead-flat Thursday morning in London, with a brief rise to $1231 per ounce unwound as New York opened for business. The world's largest consumer market for gold, China saw inflation slow to 2.5% annually in December, official statistics said Thursday. Factory-gate prices slid for the 22nd month running however, the longest drop in 15 years, falling 1.3% from 12 months earlier. Gold price premiums in Shanghai over international benchmarks today held at $16 per ounce, just shy of this week's earlier 6-month highs as trading volumes also held firm ahead of the Chinese New Year celebrations at end-Jan. "Once this support [for the gold price] passes," reckons one New York dealing desk, "gold may be open to more downside. "ETF liquidation is likely to continue while the US long-bond yield rises." Ten-year US Treasury yields rose 0.14 percentage points in the first week of 2014, but held unchanged Thursday morning at 2.99% per year. The giant SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), the world's most valuable exchange-traded fund at its first peak in 2011, yesterday shed another 1.5 tonnes from the bullion needed to back its shares. That took the total GLD holdings down to a 5-year low beneath 794 tonnes, worth 60% less than the record peak by value at $76.7 billion in October 2012. "ETF holdings are likely to continue their downward trend while the Fed slows its asset purchases," agrees Walter de Wet at Standard Bank in London. "Once current seasonal demand from Asia fades as we head into February, new longs in the futures market are likely to be liquidated [too]." "The buying momentum in gold evident at the beginning [of the year] clearly seems to be fading," says one US analyst. Wednesday's release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting were "mildly bearish [for the gold price] on the face of it," says David Govett at London brokers Marex, "but discounted by anyone who understands the way the market works." "If the Fed opts for a slow, modest taper and the economy fails to rebound," says James Steel, analyst at bullion market-maker HSBC, "we would expect gold to be buoyed." But with Dollar strength the most likely case from regular $10bn per month cuts to the current $75bn level, HSBC now sees the gold price averaging $1292 in 2014, before rising to average $1310 next year. Swiss refining and finance group MKS sees average gold prices at $1262 this year, forecasting a rise towards $1350 mid-year "on the back of physical [Chinese] demand", but followed by weakness as talk turns to US interest-rate hikes. Neither the Bank of England or European Central Bank made any change at their monetary policy votes on Thursday. |
| Alasdair Macleod: Index trackers and their effect on gold and silver futures Posted: 09 Jan 2014 05:07 AM PST 8a ET Thursday, January 9, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod writes today that increased weightings of gold and silver in two major market indexes are likely to put upward pressure on precious metals prices. Macleod's commentary is headlined "Index Trackers and Their Effect on Gold and Silver Futures" and it's posted at GoldMoney's Internet site here: http://www.goldmoney.com/research/research-archive/index-trackers-and-th... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Jim Sinclair plans seminars in Asheville and Austin Gold advocate and mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair will hold his next market seminars from 2 to 6 p.m. Saturday, January 25, at the Clarion Inn Asheville, 550 Airport Road, Fletcher, North Carolina, and from 2 to 6 p.m. Saturday, February 8, at the Austin, Texas, Airport Hilton. Advance registration is required. Details for the Asheville seminar are posted at Sinclair's Internet site, JSMineSet.com, here: http://www.jsmineset.com/2014/01/07/north-carolina-qa-session-venue-conf... Details for the Austin seminar are posted at JSMineSet.com here: http://www.jsmineset.com/2014/01/02/austin-texas-qa-session-confirmed/ Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer... GATA Reception in Vancouver Mines and Money Hong Kong http://www.minesandmoney.com/hongkong/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT A Personal Touch in Buying Precious Metals If you've not secured your allocation of precious metals and numismatic coins, 2014 may be the last year to get them at affordable and undervalued prices. With huge amounts of gold leaving the West for Asia, the future availability of precious metals is very much in doubt. All Pro Gold has competitive pricing on all bullion and numismatic products -- and offers prompt delivery too. Long-time GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy are glad to answer any questions or concerns about acquiring the monetary metals. All Pro Gold has an extensive electronic library of articles from the world's top market analysts. Learn more at www.allprogold.com or write to Fred and Tim at info@allprogold.com or telephone them at 1-855-377-4653. |
| Posted: 09 Jan 2014 04:00 AM PST |
| Comex Stocks: Claims On Bullion Well Below Historical Highs At 5:1 Posted: 09 Jan 2014 01:35 AM PST Perth Mint Blog. |
| Gold and Silver Sentiment Update Posted: 09 Jan 2014 01:19 AM PST We’ve recently written quite a bit about the current technical situation in precious metals as well as the current bear market compared to past bear markets. Thus we’ve neglected sentiment somewhat. This is a good time to examine sentiment as the sector appears to be bottoming or trying to emerge from a bottom. The first chart shows the speculative position (for Gold & Silver combined) as a percentage of open interest. The black is a price index comprised of Gold and Silver. At the June low speculators were only 4.6% long as a percentage of open interest. That marked a 12 year low. It is currently 11% and was as high as 52.8% in 2012. |
| The Lombardi Method of Gold Stocks Investing Posted: 09 Jan 2014 12:57 AM PST Deflation, inflation and reinflation all play into scenarios for the gold price and precious metals equity markets, as outlined by Paolo Lostritto, former director of mining equity research at National Bank Financial. How to play good defense in this unusual market? Companies with free cash flow top his list, but high-leverage, midtier producers with great management teams can satisfy investors with more appetite for risk, says Lostritto in this interview with The Gold Report. |
Moody's has reduced its forecast for gold and silver prices over the next two years from an average of $1,200/oz and $20/oz, respectively, to $1,100/oz and $18/oz in 2014.
Gold and silver have been flat for a month now.
It’s been one of the worst years for gold in a generation. A flood of outflows from gold ETFs, endless tax increases on gold imports in India, and the mirage (albeit a convincing one in the eyes of many) of a supposedly improving economy in the US have all contributed to the constant hammering gold took in 2013.| You are subscribed to email updates from Save Your ASSets First To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
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