saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Option Spread Portfolio: Trading Tesoro And ConAgra Foods Into August
- Income and Per Capita GDP in Gold Oz.
- Gold “Alternating Between Up and Down Weeks”, More QE “Appropriate” for US Economy
- Why Do So Few Investors Understand the Silver Story?
- Miners Are Unlocking Chinas Gold: Noel White
- The Effects of Increasing Global Money Supply on Gold
- The Collapsing US Economy and the end of the world
- Millrock Commences Drilling Program at Estelle Gold Project, Alaska
- Argentina: Ditching the dollar
- The Real Testosterone Junkies
- Adrian Douglas: Deflation — nowhere to be seen
- 25 Signs The Collapse Of America Is Speeding Up As Society Rots From The Inside Out
- A Balancing Act in Precious Metals
- Effects of Increasing Global Money Supply on Gold
- Bullion 'Alternating Between Up and Down Weeks'
- View From the Turret: Equity Markets Weaken on Coordinated Central Bank Flop
- Chris Duane talks with Greg Hunter
- Drought Pushing Prices
- The Silver Two Year Cycle Continues
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, July 09 2012
- Stock Market Predictions Using the Dollar Index
- How Saving is the New Investing
- Daily Gold Market Report
- Confirmed: Britain’s Gold Was Sold Cheap to Bail Out Banks
- Gold in Gadgets ‘worth more than £10bn’
- The War Between Manipulation and Buying
| Option Spread Portfolio: Trading Tesoro And ConAgra Foods Into August Posted: 09 Jul 2012 10:49 AM PDT By TSO) I was looking at Tesoro the other day since we have a position in our Dollar & Sense portfolio for July expiration. However, since the stock has increased in value so quickly recently I was curious to see what its max return has been since 2002. Below are the June to August option expiration returns for past the past 10 years. Above, you can see that TSO has seen a strong bearish bias in the June to August option expiration period. The negative returns during this period have been large and numerous. Assuming the best return of 6% I estimated a max high for the stock of $24.11 on August 17th. Note, although TSO is to see positive EPS growth this year (1,947%), it expected to see negative growth next year (-7.44%) and little growth for Complete Story » |
| Income and Per Capita GDP in Gold Oz. Posted: 09 Jul 2012 10:00 AM PDT |
| Gold “Alternating Between Up and Down Weeks”, More QE “Appropriate” for US Economy Posted: 09 Jul 2012 09:45 AM PDT
U.S. DOLLAR gold prices held above $1580 an ounce Monday morning in London – broadly in line with last week's close – while major European stock markets were broadly flat on the day, with the exception of Spain's Ibex. Gold prices ended down last week, falling back below $1600 on Friday, following the release of June's US nonfarm payroll data, which showed the economy added 80,000 private sector jobs last month. Although this was lower than many analysts' forecasts, it was higher than a month earlier. April and May's nonfarms figures were revised higher, while unemployment held steady at 8.2%. "[Last week was] the ninth consecutive week where gold has alternated between an 'up' or a 'down' week," says the latest technical analysis note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta. "The market is trying to decide whether to continue the down move below $1500 or recover back above $1640 towards $1750." "The market is not sure where prices should go," agrees Lynette Tan at Phillip Futures in Singapore. Silver prices meantime climbed as high as $27.39 this morning – 1% up on last week's close . Other commodities also gained, as did major government bond prices, while on the currency markets, the Euro touched a new two-year low before regaining some ground by lunchtime. In the US, "economic circumstances warrant extremely strong accommodation," said Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Charles Evans in a speech on Monday. "Additional monetary accommodation is need to more quickly boost output to its full potential level." Speaking at the same event in Bangkok, Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren meantime told reporters that it is "appropriate to have more quantitative easing" from the Federal Reserve. Neither Evans nor Rosengren are voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2012, though both become so next year. Here in Europe, benchmark yields on Spanish 10-Year government bonds rose back above 7% this morning, following news that government tax receipts fell 1.5% in the first five months of 2012 – while state spending rose 12%. "The state's haste to increase tax receipts is generating uncertainty and that harms investment," says Ramon Casero Barron of the Universidad Pontificia Comillas in Madrid, which last week published a study showing 73% of Spanish businesses surveyed say tax rules are impeding decisions to invest. "It will probably get worse," adds Rafael Panpillon, head of economic analysis at Madrid business school the Instituto Empresa. "I don't see companies generating more profits or families earning and spending more as unemployment grows and salaries become lower." By Monday lunchtime, Spain's Ibex stock index was down 1% from where it closed on Friday. Elsewhere in Europe, Greece's new coalition government – comprising parties who have stated support for the country's bailout – won a vote of confidence in the Greek parliament Monday. France's finance minister meantime has denied a report in German newspaper Der Spiegel that he and Germany's Wolfgang Schaeuble are set to share chairmanship of the Eurogroup – the body of single currency finance ministers currently chaired by Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker, and which meets today in Brussels. Japan recorded its smallest monthly current account surplus since at least 1985 in May, newswire Bloomberg reports. Data published Sunday show that the surplus in Japan's current account – which includes trade in goods and services – shrank by more than a third from a month earlier. Machinery orders fell 14.8% month-on month – the biggest monthly fall since 2001 – though they grew 1.0% on an annual basis. Japan's central bank "could ease policy further as early as September if it becomes clearer that the economy is slowing," reckons Yasuo Yamamoto, senior economist at Tokyo's Mizuho Research Institute. Over in China – which in recent months has overtaken India as the world's largest source of gold bullion demand – official inflation as measured by the consumer price index fell to 2.2% last month, down from 3.0% a month earlier, data published Monday show. "Lower CPI opens room for further policy easing, which we expect will pick up," says Nomura economist Zhang Zhiwei. China's central bank last week cut interest rates for the second month in a row. Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut its gold forecast for 2012 Monday, having previously cut it in April. BAML analysts now project gold prices will average $1710 per ounce this year, with silver prices averaging $31.63. Based on London Fix data, gold prices have averaged $1649 per ounce so far in 2012, while the average Dollar silver price has been $30.93. "Our long-term view on gold remains constructive," adds Friday's Commodities Daily note from Standard Bank. "We forecast an average gold price of $1,780 and $1,850 for Q3:12 and Q4:12 respectively…we view the current weakness…as a short-term buying opportunity." Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. (c) BullionVault 2011 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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| Why Do So Few Investors Understand the Silver Story? Posted: 09 Jul 2012 08:58 AM PDT It is a mystery story really: why do so few investors seem to understand the case for silver? After all the track record is formidable. Silver prices have risen 10-fold in a decade, outperforming gold and pretty much any other investment available to the ordinary investor. |
| Miners Are Unlocking Chinas Gold: Noel White Posted: 09 Jul 2012 07:36 AM PDT |
| The Effects of Increasing Global Money Supply on Gold Posted: 09 Jul 2012 07:28 AM PDT gold.ie |
| The Collapsing US Economy and the end of the world Posted: 09 Jul 2012 07:09 AM PDT
from paulcraigroberts.org: In a recent column, "Can The World Survive Washington's Hubris," I promised to examine whether the US economy will collapse before Washington in its pursuit of world hegemony brings us into military confrontation with Russia and China. This is likely to be an ongoing subject on this site, so this column will not be the final word. Washington has been at war since October, 2001, when President George W. Bush concocted an excuse to order the US invasion of Afghanistan. This war took a back seat when Bush concocted another excuse to order the invasion of Iraq in 2003, a war that went on without significant success for 8 years and has left Iraq in chaos with dozens more killed and wounded every day, a new strong man in place of the illegally executed former strongman, and the likelihood of the ongoing violence becoming civil war. Upon his election, President Obama foolishly sent more troops to Afghanistan and renewed the intensity of that war, now in its eleventh year, to no successful effect. Keep on reading @ paulcraigroberts.org |
| Millrock Commences Drilling Program at Estelle Gold Project, Alaska Posted: 09 Jul 2012 07:08 AM PDT VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - July 9, 2012) - Millrock Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE:MRO) ("Millrock" or the "Company") announced today that drilling has commenced at the Estelle Gold Project in Alaska. The project is a joint venture between Millrock (45%) and Teck American Incorporated ("Teck") (55%), a subsidiary of Teck Resources Limited. The Estelle gold project is located northwest of Anchorage, Alaska. The drilling program now underway is planned to consist of seven holes totaling approximately 1,500 m. Five of the planned holes will be drilled at the Oxide Ridge occurrence where Millrock intersected a thick, low grade gold intersection during its 2011 drilling program. At this location, Millrock previously discovered a multi-element soil geochemical anomaly in a roughly circular area measuring two km in diameter. As announced on November 9, 2011 (http://www.millrockresources.com/news/millrock_intersects_intrusion-related_gold_system_at_estelle_project_a/), hole SE-001 intersected variably altered magmatic intrusive rock with quartz veins and stockworks containing gold mineralization over the entire length of the hole. Most of the mineralization was found from depths of 31.8 m to 397.1 m and returned a weighted average of 0.43 g/t Au over 365.3 m. Two more holes will be used to test geochemical anomalies in pyritic rocks on the margin of an intrusion at the RPM showing located at the south end of the claim block. The target sought at Estelle is a gold deposit of the Intrusion-Related type. Geologic features, and extensive surface geochemical anomalies indicate the potential for large, bulk-minable, deposits. Four main zones of large-scale anomalous gold and pathfinder element geochemistry have been identified over the past three years: Shoeshine, Oxide Ridge, RPM and Stoney. At the Shoeshine and Oxide Ridge prospects surface mineralization is spatially associated with porphyritic intrusive rocks, quartz stockworks and hydrothermal breccias. At RPM rusty, pyritic hornfels sediments with anomalous gold indicate a possible auriferous intrusion at a shallow burial level. The Stoney prospect is a high-grade, polymetallic vein occurrence. Many of the claims that comprise the property are subject to a 3.0% NSR royalty payable to third parties. The claims are located approximately 160 km northwest of Anchorage, Alaska. The property is adjacent to Kiska Metals Corp.'s Whistler copper-gold deposit. Estelle is located in the Kahiltna Terrane, an assemblage of rocks that hosts Northern Dynasty/Anglo American's giant Pebble copper-gold-molybdenum-silver deposit. Millrock's 45% share of the 2012 exploration program is estimated to cost approximately US$800,000. Under the terms of a loan agreement with Teck, Millrock will borrow up to the entire amount necessary to cover its share of the planned program costs. The loan, which bears a 6% interest rate, may be repaid by December 31, 2012, and if Millrock does so, it will retain its 45% interest. Millrock may elect not to repay the loan, and if it does not, its interest in the Estelle project will be reduced in accordance with the dilution formula contained in the joint venture agreement. If the planned program is carried out, and Millrock does not repay the loan, its equity interest in the project would be reduced to approximately 35%. The technical information in this news release was reviewed by Gregory Beischer, Millrock's President and CEO, a Qualified Person as defined in NI 43-101. - Millrock Resources press continues at the link below. Source: Millrock Resources via MarketWire Millrock Resources Inc. Disclosure: Millrock Resources is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI). Members of the GGR team are actively accumulating and hold long positions in MRO.V or MLRKF. |
| Argentina: Ditching the dollar Posted: 09 Jul 2012 07:06 AM PDT
from globalpost.com: BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — It was an awkward moment for Anibal Fernandez, Argentina's former Cabinet chief, when President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner interrupted herself during a recent speech to order him to convert his savings from dollars to pesos. Days earlier, Mr Fernandez had defended new restrictions on purchasing greenbacks and told Argentines they should start to "think in pesos." But he was later caught out in a radio interview when pushed on why he had chosen to save in dollars. "Because I feel like it," he eventually responded. "I do what I want with my money." The dollar is legal tender in Argentina and is the preferred currency for real-estate transactions. Many Argentines also save in dollars as they view it as safer than their historically unstable peso. But on Friday morning, the country's central bank announced it will bar Argentines from buying dollars for purchasing property and for saving. The currency controls form part of an intensification of President Fernandez de Kirchner's interventionist policies. These also include severe import restrictions and the nationalization of YPF, Argentina's biggest oil company, in April — moves that have caused jitters among foreign investors and angered ally governments overseas. Keep on reading @ globalpost.com |
| Posted: 09 Jul 2012 06:59 AM PDT
from azizonomics.com: I especially enjoy reading things that I disagree with, and that challenge my own beliefs. Strong ideas are made stronger, and weak ideas dissolve in the spotlight of scrutiny. People who are unhappy to read criticisms of their own ideas are opening the floodgates to ignorance and dogmatism. Yet sometimes my own open-minded contrarianism leads me to something unbelievably shitty. According to Noah Smith: Zero Hedge is a financial news website. The writers all write under the pseudonym of "Tyler Durden", Brad Pitt's character from Fight Club. Each post comes with a little black and white icon of Brad Pitt's head. On Zero Hedge you can read news, rumors, facts, figures, off-the-cuff analysis, and political screeds (usually anti-Obama, anti-government, and pro-hard money). On the sidebars, you can click on ads for online brokerages, gold collectibles, and The Economist. The site is a big fat hoax. And if you read it for anything other than amusement, you're almost certainly a big fat sucker. That's a bold claim! Why do I make this claim? Well, in one sense, all financial news is a hoax. Financial news, by definition, is public information — if you've read it, you can bet that thousands of other people have too. That means that if the market is anywhere close to being efficient, any information in any article you read will already have been incorporated into the price of financial assets. Reading or watching public information should not, in theory, give you any "alpha". Keep on reading @ azizonomics.com |
| Adrian Douglas: Deflation — nowhere to be seen Posted: 09 Jul 2012 06:53 AM PDT
from gata.org: Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Commodity price data contradicts complaints of deflation, GATA board member and Market Force Analysis letter editor Adrian Douglas argues today. Douglas writes that there hasn't been deflation in the United States in almost 80 years and that some prices are showing increases of as much as 15 percent annually. Douglas' commentary is headlined "Deflation: Nowhere to Be Seen" and it's posted as part of his Market Force Analysis letter at GATA's Internet site here: Keep on reading @ gata.org |
| 25 Signs The Collapse Of America Is Speeding Up As Society Rots From The Inside Out Posted: 09 Jul 2012 06:31 AM PDT
from theeconomiccollapseblog.com: The problems that America is experiencing right now are not just confined to the field of economics. The truth is that there are signs of deep decay wherever we look, and without question the United States is rotting from the inside out in thousands of different ways. For a long time our debt-fueled prosperity has masked much of the social decay that has been festering underneath the surface, but now it is becoming increasingly apparent that the thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted is beginning to disappear. For many Americans, it is easy to point a finger at a particular group or political party and blame them for all of our problems, but the reality of the matter is that our societal decay cuts across all income levels, all political affiliations and all regions of the country. We are being destroyed from within, and this decay can be seen on the streets of the most dilapidated sections of major U.S. cities and it can also be seen in the halls of power in Washington D.C. and on Wall Street. It is undeniable that something has fundamentally changed. The American people do not seem to possess the same level of character that they once had. So where do we go from here? The following are 25 signs the collapse of America is speeding up as society rots from the inside out…. 1. Homicides in Chicago are 38 percent ahead of where they were last year at this time. In fact, the Daily says that "homicide victims in the Windy City outnumber U.S. troops killed in Afghanistan this year". Things are taking a turn for the worse in other major U.S. cities as well. Just check out the carnage that happened in New York City this past Friday night…. Across barely eight hours, at least seven New Yorkers were murdered and another 21 shot, stabbed or slashed across the city — with only three suspects arrested before the blood stopped flowing Keep on reading @ theeconomiccollapseblog.com |
| A Balancing Act in Precious Metals Posted: 09 Jul 2012 05:48 AM PDT The new trading week got off to a relatively muted but also somewhat weak start in the precious metals' complex. Spot gold climbed $3.70 to open at $1,586 per ounce and silver commenced the trading day at $27.24 the ounce with a 14-cent advance. |
| Effects of Increasing Global Money Supply on Gold Posted: 09 Jul 2012 05:31 AM PDT After the start of the financial crisis in 2007, many governments and central banks in the world implemented monetary and fiscal policies to help their economies, but these policies have led to a large increase in the global money supply. |
| Bullion 'Alternating Between Up and Down Weeks' Posted: 09 Jul 2012 05:13 AM PDT US dollar gold prices held above $1,580 an ounce Monday morning in London – broadly in line with last week's close – while major European stock markets were broadly flat on the day, with the exception of Spain's Ibex. |
| View From the Turret: Equity Markets Weaken on Coordinated Central Bank Flop Posted: 09 Jul 2012 04:32 AM PDT
If you took last week off, you missed a few sessions of light-volume trading. But you also missed a couple of important macro events. For starters, the Bank of England (BOE), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) undertook a massive coordinated stimulus thrust before US markets opened on Thursday. The rate cuts and other stimulus measures should have made significant waves in an otherwise shallow market (due to the 4th of July US holiday). But instead, traders yawned and equity markets actually fell on the day. On Friday, the US jobs report turned out to be a disappointment with only 80,000 new jobs created in June, and the unemployment rate steady at 8.2%. Traders may not have reacted to the coordinated central bank action, but they certainly got the message from the jobs report. The S&P 500 dropped as much as 1.4% before closing down 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.3% of its value. The bearish action wasn't just confined to equity markets. Precious metal prices also dropped sharply last week (quite the opposite of what you might expect in light of the coordinated central bank action). On Friday, Jack laid out the Mass Capitulation Thesis – explaining why gold and silver bulls could end up being disappointed, as the global economy remains stuck in an "ugly Goldilocks scenario" (not to hot – not too cold). The long-term weekly gold chart looks anything but bullish – and could be setting up for a significant break in the near future.
As if the macro picture didn't offer enough uncertainty, this week marks the official start of earnings season. Alcoa Inc. (AA) kicks off the action after the market closes on Monday, and traders will be paying close attention to Google Inc. (GOOG), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) later in the week. There are plenty of catalysts (both technical and fundamental) on the horizon, setting up some interesting trading opportunities for the new quarter. Below are a few of the areas we are focusing on this week…
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Extended Bullish Stocks Vulnerable to Reversal In today's environment, there are a number of well-liked stocks which have become extended and are now vulnerable to a pullback. We're watching several of these extended names with the intent of capturing short-term gains as stockholders take profits. Sentiment levels have been volatile, and given the bearish macro picture, investors are more likely to begin cutting back on risk and trimming their winning positions. For these snap-back trades, there are a number of necessary elements that must be in play:
Ocwen Financial (OCN) is a good example of a name that has moved significantly higher over the last month and could be vulnerable to a pullback. Notice that the stock is not only well above any swing low on the daily chart, but it is also extended above both the 20 and 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average).
Snap-back retracement trades work especially well in choppy environments where broad equity indices continue to run into resistance, and sector trends are relatively short-lived. The Mercenary HPSS (High Probability Swing System) has been active on this front, setting up a number of snap-back swing trades while keeping exposure light. Trades are closed relatively quickly (usually in 3-5 trading days) which helps to keep the amount of capital at risk low, while still providing plenty of bullish and bearish opportunities. Retail Still A Bearish Stock Picker's Playground With macroeconomic weakness on three continental fronts (Europe, China and the US), global retail companies are hard-pressed to find growth opportunities.Up to this point, China's growth engine had been strong enough to offset weakness in Europe, and while the US picture wasn't exactly constructive, affluent consumers were strong enough to prop-up the broad retail sector. But now that China is setting up for a hard landing, and the US employment picture is lagging, the retail sector is looking much more vulnerable. It's interesting to note that companies who cater to affluent consumers are now taking on water. Lululemon Athletica (LULU), the high-priced yoga apparel chain has fallen more than 25% from its peak. Harley Davidson (HOG) is working on a bearish head and shoulders pattern. And Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is in a full-fledged downturn.
The Mercenary Live Feed still has an outstanding short position in Coach Inc. (COH). This is another upper-class retailer which continues to cut through support levels as traders lose confidence in the sector. Many of these names are trading at valuation levels that support more sustained downtrends – as opposed to short-term pullbacks more suited for swing trading.  Heading into the week, we're still sporting very light exposure levels. The majority of our activity has been centered around short-term swing trades as we wait for more clarity on the macro picture. Eventually as the macro picture crystallizes we will find opportunities to take larger trend plays. Earnings reports and commentary from key management teams could go far in influencing investor sentiment – providing more long-term direction for broad markets. This week has potential for much more meaningful action, as traders return from the 4th of July holiday week and start reacting to earnings season. Two hours before the opening bell, S&P futures are modestly red and traders are once again focused on Europe – with Spanish bond yields surging ahead of an important meeting in Brussels. Trade 'em well this week! Mike McD (mike@mercenarytrader.com) p.s. Like this article? For more, visit our Knowledge Center!p.p.s. Break the Institutional Barrier - and Substantially Increase Assets Under Management! Access our FREE report to find out how... Similar articles you might like: |
| Chris Duane talks with Greg Hunter Posted: 09 Jul 2012 04:21 AM PDT Chris Duane was a 30 year old millionaire working at his family's East coast car dealerships when he walked away from it all to become a citizen journalist. from usawatchdog: He sold his house in 2005 and started renting just before the real estate crash. He began warning anyone who would listen about the collapse and paradigm change coming to America. His YouTube channel – http://www.youtube.com/user/TruthNeverTold has gotten 3.5 million views-in less than a year! He says, "The collapse is going to unwind all social and financial contracts worldwide." He tells people to, "Get out of every single paper asset you own because it's all going to be worth nothing. . . . If you're not ahead of the curve, you're going to be historical road kill." He also thinks sometime in the next three years, "the dollar will be completely worthless." When that happens, Duane predicts, "mass hysteria, power grabs and food riots." His number one investment is physical silver because it is in short supply and extremely undervalued. Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com goes One-on-One with Chris Duane. ~TVR |
| Posted: 09 Jul 2012 03:24 AM PDT Per Our Months Ago Forecast, We Did Predict Corn Perishing In Drought. Reserves In The Bins Are The Lowest In 38 Years. We did forecast December corn futures will touch $8.00 on the high. Rationing is a distinct possibility. "Corn supplies in the U.S., the world's biggest exporter, are declining at the fastest pace since 1996 just as a Midwest heat wave damages the world's largest harvest for a third consecutive year." "Stockpiles were probably 3.168 billion bushels (80.47 million metric tons) on June 1, 47% less than on March 1, the average of 22 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows. The worst Midwest drought in more than a decade is wilting a harvest that the U.S. Department of Agriculture says will be the biggest ever. The agency updates its inventory estimate June 29 and its production forecast two weeks later." "Futures surged 25 percent since reaching a 20-month low June 15, and Morgan Stanley expects prices to advance another 10 percent to $7 a bushel in two months if the drought persists. The rally is boosting global food costs that the United Nations estimates dropped 14 percent from a record in February 2011 and widening losses for ethanol producers including Decatur, Illinois-based Archer Daniels Midland Co. 'We have a potential disaster developing for the U.S. corn supply," said Peter Meyer, the senior director for agricultural commodities at PIRA Energy Group in New York who cut his corn- crop forecast after surveying fields in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio last week. "This year may be the worst yet." "Corn rallied 14% this month to $6.3375 a bushel today on the Chicago Board of Trade, trailing only wheat and natural gas among 24 commodities in the Standard & Poor's GSCI Spot Index, which fell -3.7%. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose +1.3%, and the dollar fell -0.8 percent against a basket of six currencies. Treasuries lost -0.2%, a Bank of America Corp. index shows."
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| The Silver Two Year Cycle Continues Posted: 09 Jul 2012 03:00 AM PDT The Optimist |
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, July 09 2012 Posted: 09 Jul 2012 03:00 AM PDT |
| Stock Market Predictions Using the Dollar Index Posted: 09 Jul 2012 02:21 AM PDT The term "stock market predictions" is a very controversial topic and does seem to give off a negative/non-credible overtone to most traders, investors and the general public. We all know you cannot predict the market with 100% certainty. |
| How Saving is the New Investing Posted: 09 Jul 2012 12:55 AM PDT
from silvervigilante.com: I mentioned in my article yesterday that saving is the new investing. A glance at five year graphs across the board pretty much demonstrate this point. Other than day traders, there's not much long-term appreciation. And, even for day traders, the increasingly volatile conditions on the markets are making price movements increasingly difficult to predict. Below is the 5-year chart for the S&P 500. At the onset of 2007, at 1450.00, it stood on the edge of a precipitous price drop below 700.00 in 2008-2009. Today, nearly four years later, the S&P 500 hangs 100 points off its high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average comprises the same storyline. In 2007, at 12,700.00, it stood on the precipice of a fall down to below 7,000.00 in 2008-09. Over the following years, until now, it clawed its way back to about even with its beginning of 2007 price. In March 2012, NASDAQ reached 5-year highs around 2600 before falling off to 2610, Friday's close. Up about 800 points from five years ago, NASDAQ stands out with visible gains. But, these gains appear more impressive after the 2009 lows than they actually are….. A truism, commodities have far outpaced the performance of the dominant culture's investment avenues. And this has meant a built-in tax on anyone's investment as the cost of living rises. Up 20 points from its 2007 open, crude oil has reached peaks of more than $140.00 per barrel before the 2008-2009 crash. Since, it has reached almost $120.00 per barrel. That a doubling in price since the start of 2007. Keep on reading @ silvervigilante.com |
| Posted: 09 Jul 2012 12:51 AM PDT
from usagold.com: Gold is trading at the $1590 level this morning down about $15 from yesterday's close. The euro is being blamed in what is becoming a familiar, almost daily mantra. Gold "fell because of the weak euro," James Steel, a commodity analyst at HSBC told MarketWatch. Nearly every day we read that gold is following the euro but that connection doesn't hold up under closer scrutiny. Though it might look to be the case for those with a shorter term view, the longer term charts reveal a different picture altogether. Since the beginnings of the financial crisis in 2008 – the same crisis the latest manifestations of which now grip Europe – the euro is down roughly 22.5% from $1.60 to this morning's $1.23. Gold during the same time period has more than doubled – from $750 to this morning's $1587. So there's a problem with the gold-euro synergy. Over the longer term, there is no connection between the euro and gold at all except perhaps an inverse one. In other words, this oft-cited synergy appears to be based on a false premise. Financial Times tells us this morning that QE might no longer be what it used to be in terms of stimulating the economy. You might recall yesterday's mention of QE start-up in the UK and how major policy enacted there is often a precursor to similar programs being launched in the United States. One doubts that printing money will go out of style anytime soon, but the thought that it might not work must be daunting for policy-makers. Bundesbank president Jan Weidmann simultaneously expressed his displeasure with the agreements made at the recent Eurozone meetings. Greece's finance minister announced that an attempt to persuade international lenders to soften bail out terms is likely to be rejected. The fracture in the Eurozone appears to be widening. The failure to get unstuck may have more to do with the euro's performance over the past few days than many realize. Brown's Folly revisited in context of banking scandals A London Telegraph article by Thomas Pascoe, passed along to us by Gata's Chris Powell, tells the story of Gordon Brown's liquidation of a good portion of Britain's gold back at the turn of the 21st century. At the time Brown was Chancellor of the Exchequer. He later became prime minister. Though Brown claimed he was simply trying for yield, the real reason for the botched sales was to bail out key bullion banks who were short gold via the yen carry trade. Pascoe does a good job explaining how and why it all happened while simultaneously confirming, for the first time to my knowledge in the mainstream press, what we suggested on these pages all the way back in 1999. Brown's Folly as it came to be known did not occur so that the Bank of England could gain "a return" by switching to various currencies. It occurred because of a dire need by trading banks short the metal who couldn't get what they needed in the open market. Pascoe tells the story in the context of other well-known big bank shenanigans the unsettling substance of which can be found by reading just about any daily newspaper……… Keep on reading @ usagold.com |
| Confirmed: Britain’s Gold Was Sold Cheap to Bail Out Banks Posted: 09 Jul 2012 12:47 AM PDT
from truthingold.com: A great deal of Gordon Brown's economic strategy would strike a sane man as troubling. Not a great deal was mysterious. The orgy of consumption spending, frequent extensions of the cycle over which he would "borrow to invest", proclamations of the "end of boom and bust": these are part of the armoury of modern politicians, of all political hues. One decision stands out as downright bizarre, however: the sale of the majority of Britain's gold reserves for prices between $256 and $296 an ounce, only to watch it soar to around $1,600 per ounce today. When Brown decided to dispose of almost 400 tonnes of gold between 1999 and 2002, he did two distinctly odd things. First, he broke with convention and announced the sale well in advance, giving the market notice that it was shortly to be flooded and forcing down the spot price. This was apparently done in the interests of "open government", but had the effect of sending the spot price of gold to a 20-year low, as implied by basic supply and demand theory. Second, the Treasury elected to sell its gold via auction. Again, this broke with the standard model. The price of gold was usually determined at a morning and afternoon "fix" between representatives of big banks whose network of smaller bank clients and private orders allowed them to determine the exact price at which demand met with supply. The auction system again frequently achieved a lower price than the equivalent fix price. The first auction saw an auction price of $10c less per ounce than was achieved at the morning fix. It also acted to depress the price of the afternoon fix which fell by nearly $4. Keep on reading @ truthingold.com |
| Gold in Gadgets ‘worth more than £10bn’ Posted: 09 Jul 2012 12:43 AM PDT
from truthingold.com: Each year an estimated 320 tons of gold is used worldwide to make mobile phones, laptops and other electronic devices, it has been disclosed. The total value of all the gadget gold is more than £10 billion, yet only around 15% of it is ever recovered from electronic waste, a meeting was told. In rich and poor countries alike, at least 85% of the e-waste gold is lost, analysts said. Manufacturing electronic products also consumes more than 7,500 tons of silver per year, experts said at the E-Waste Academy meeting in Accra, Ghana. "More sustainable consumption patterns and material recycling are essential if consumers are to continue to enjoy high-tech devices that support everything from modern communications to smart transport, intelligent buildings and more," said Luis Neves, chairman of the Global e-sustainability Initiative (GeSI). Electronic waste now contains precious metal "deposits" 40 to 50 times richer than ores mined from the ground, the meeting heard. The amount of gold taken up by gadgets was said to be rising at a fast rate in tandem with new developments such as tablet computers. In 2001, they used up 5.3% of the world's supply, around 197 tons. By last year, this figure had risen to 7.7%, or 320 tons – equal to 2.5% of the US gold reserves in Fort Knox and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Making high-tech devices required gold and silver together worth £13.5 billion – equal to the Gross Domestic Product of El Salvador. Keep on reading @ truthingold.com |
| The War Between Manipulation and Buying Posted: 09 Jul 2012 12:40 AM PDT
from caseyresearch.com: The gold price traded quietly during the Far East trading day on Friday, but developed a slight negative bias as the afternoon wore on in Hong Kong trading…and once it dropped below the $1,600 spot price mark at 9:50 a.m. in London, the gold price plunged eight or nine dollar in short order. The London low was noon local time…and then it rallied a hair into the New York open. Then at 8:30 a.m., gold jumped back over the $1,600 spot mark, where it ran into a wall of not-for-profit sellers immediately…and within twenty-five minutes was down over twenty-six bucks from its high just minutes prior. The high…which came around 8:40 a.m. Eastern time…was $1,611.20 spot. After the hammer fell, the gold price more or less traded sideways until about 12:15 p.m. in New York…then the got sold down some more from there, with the low of the day [$1,575.40 spot] coming shortly after 1:00 p.m. The gold price recovered about eight bucks from that low…and closed at $1,582.40 spot…down $21.50 on the day. Net volume was around 150,000 contracts. It was pretty much the same story in silver, so I'll spare you the play-by-play on that. Silver's low price tick [$26.86 spot] came about five minutes before the 1:30 p.m. Comex close. The high tick [$27.86 spot] came at 8:35 a.m. From the low of the day, the silver price recovered about two bits into the close. Silver closed at $27.10 spot…down 60 cents from Thursday's close. Net volume was around 38,000 contracts. Silver had an intra-day move of a dollar yesterday…and is down over $1.40 since its high tick in London on Thursday, which came about thirty minutes before the Comex open. Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com |
Traders are reluctantly heading back from the Hamptons after a lazy holiday week of trading.
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