saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Municipal Bonds: A Contrarian Play On The Fiscal Cliff
- How Will Gold React To Operation Twist?
- Plunge In Family Net Worth Supports Gold Diversification
- Prepare For A White-Knuckle Ride With Volatility Being The 'Norm'
- GGR Courtesy Sample: ‘Simple Secret Weapon’
- Gold To Repeat July/ August 2011 Gain Of Over 27 Per Cent?
- Growth Versus Austerity: A U.S. Dollar Perspective
- Trading Comments, 20 June 2012 (posted 17h15 CET):
- Let’s Do the Twist – Again?
- ECB: decrease of oz793.09 in gold and gold receivables
- Gold ends lower as safe-haven bids dwindle
- 4 month results after using Andrew Mcguire service
- Gold recovers as post-Greek election optimism fizzles
- Indian gold seen hitting another peak this week
- Gold Seen Falling a Second Day in London Before Fed Decision
- Part 1 How undervalued?
- Will Congress Aggravate Silver Manipulation?1
- Gold’s value is more than just its price
- Gold pays no interest, has no use and no fundamental value – really?
- Suppression by the State
- Debt crisis: prepare for Lehmans re-run, Bank official warns, as leaders poised to bail out Spain and Italy
- GEAB N°66 ist angekommen! Alarmstufe Rot / Umfassende weltweite Krise - September/Oktober 2012: Wenn die sieben Trompeten vor Jericho die Welt von Gestern einstürzen lassen
- Central Banks Begin Mini Coordinated Expansion – Fed to Join?
- FOMC ‘Policy Gesture’ Expected but No Fresh QE
- Pressured European Central Banks Won't Unload Gold
- Could Gold Repeat Summer 2011 Gain of Over 27%?
| Municipal Bonds: A Contrarian Play On The Fiscal Cliff Posted: 20 Jun 2012 06:22 AM PDT By Skyler Greene: The income market looks pretty bleak right now. Short-term TIPS and Treasuries are selling at negative yields, and long-term ones aren't doing a whole lot better. The negative yields aren't just depressing -- they're risky. In their overly hasty flight to Treasuries, American investors have been dropping municipal bonds like hotcakes. From Reuters:
While most investors are (somewhat blindly, in my opinion) seeking the perceived safety of US government bonds, I believe the muni bond market offers better opportunities at this juncture. Implications of The Fiscal Cliff The so-called "fiscal cliff" has seen an uptick in media coverage recently. For those who haven't heard or are fuzzy on the details, here's a primer from Smartmoney:
Complete Story » |
| How Will Gold React To Operation Twist? Posted: 20 Jun 2012 06:00 AM PDT By Skyler Greene: The Federal Reserve has decided to extend Operation Twist through year end.
The effects of this policy are of interest to gold investors. The price of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) dropped sharply on the "Twist and Shout" announcement, but |
| Plunge In Family Net Worth Supports Gold Diversification Posted: 20 Jun 2012 05:56 AM PDT By Peter Grant: The Fed's triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) came out last week and the results were nothing short of astounding. The data show that the Great Recession wiped out nearly 40% of the typical American family's net worth.
Median family net worth plunged from $126,400 in 2007 to $77,300 in 2010, close to levels not seen since the 1992 survey. The median, as the Los Angeles Times pointed out is "the point smack in the middle of those richer and poorer." In other words, the middle class bore - and Complete Story » |
| Prepare For A White-Knuckle Ride With Volatility Being The 'Norm' Posted: 20 Jun 2012 05:33 AM PDT In the early days of this bull market in precious metals we all did well as most mining stocks sprang to life and made considerable gains. The quality producers made spectacular gains and the turkeys made moderate gains. It has changed a lot since then, the mining indices such as the HUI* were outperforming gold prices by leaps and bounds, however, for the last few years they have failed to keep pace with gold and indeed still lag behind as evidenced by the chart below. As a reward for taking on all the inherent risks involved in the process of mining we require the stocks to outperform gold by a ratio of three or four to one. This sort of reward does not exist at the moment so the metal itself is a better proposition. For those who do not wish to hold the metal and wish to 'play' this Complete Story » |
| GGR Courtesy Sample: ‘Simple Secret Weapon’ Posted: 20 Jun 2012 03:47 AM PDT HOUSTON – On Monday, June 18, we shared a video offering with our subscribers mainly about one of the technical tools we rely on as Vulture Bargain Hunting speculators. The tool is simple to understand but we very much doubt there will be all that many "gamers" that will end up using it. Most people who game the small resource companies (SRCs) are just not geared to take this kind of approach. It is a matter of tenacity, time and the ability of SRC gamers to think longer term in a crisis or near crisis, frightening environment. Along with the video offering we also sent out an appendix which contained the relevant charts of specific companies covered and a good deal more information than we can cram into a short video. Among our comments in that appendix were the following: Excerpt from the GGR Appendix for June 18, 2012: "There are all kinds of issues that trouble the markets at present. Europe, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, massive money printing, Iran, Egypt, India, China slowing, the upcoming U.S. election in November, colossal sovereign debts and unsustainable deficits in the developed socialist and rapidly becoming socialist West … and those troubles just scratch the surface. All those nasty problems and the large corrections for precious metals have conspired to produce a vicious buyer's strike for the companies we call The Little Guys. We think there is a common thread running through all these issues and although people are in tremendous fear at the moment, all of these global problems seem to be supportive for the future of gold and silver. We think that gold and silver are being reclaimed by the global markets as the preferred and "safe" currency. All things considered, that is the keystone of our long term strategy. Everything else is secondary. We are confident that the world's central banks will continue to create money out of thin air to keep the system well liquefied and it is that money printing that gives us high confidence for the future in metals. That is one reason we are particularly interested in the miners and explorers. When markets stabilize the miners will excel again, of that we are as certain as we can be of anything in the markets. Vultures Game High Volatility In 2008 the world was troubled over the global banking system. Remember the dire doomsday scenarios some of the commentators were scaring people with? It was the end of the world as we knew it, they said. They said there was no way for the people in charge to stop the inevitable fall – of the entire world – into an Armageddon abyss. They collectively sold their books, their newsletters and their advisory services on that end-of-world message. We thought then, and still do, that it was ironic that people would sign up for services, and pay for them with hard earned after-tax dollars, yen, euros, or whatever – when the end of the world was looming. If the end of the financial world was really upon us, wouldn't that money be better used for a great last meal or something? But I digress… So maybe the end of the world story was good for business for the Prophets of Doom (PODs). They sure scared a bunch of people out of their stock positions and got them all neurotic, but the Prophets of Doom got the "end of the world" part wrong in 2008, didn't they. … Of course they would say they were just "early," and be sure and keep that subscription up to date so you'll be in good standing when the end of the world does come! One reason the PODs didn't get the end of the world deal "closed" is that those in political and financial power today can come up with ingenious ways to keep the game going. … Maybe the financial world should have come to an end in 2008 and maybe it should now, in 2012, but betting on the end of the world is a poor percentage bet, and we believe that when this current scare finally gasps its last we will still be here. We will still be following our Favorites and still be gaming the rise and fall of bull and bear markets in the junior miners and explorers. We could be wrong, of course, but if we are (wrong) we take some comfort in the notion that the PODs won't enjoy being "right" very much. Certainly they won't enjoy being "right" as we Vultures will. We Vultures take the other side of the doomsday trade and we think that is a fun way to play. And that leads us to the reason for this message today. Long-Term Monthly Charts. A long time ago now we noticed that some, … not all but some, issues we track exhibited repetitive, extreme, gigantic volatility. However, and this is the very simple but key part, so listen closely: The volatility played out over a period of years, not weeks or just a few months, which is what a majority of the ADD-infected retail gamers are usually mentally prepared for."
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| Gold To Repeat July/ August 2011 Gain Of Over 27 Per Cent? Posted: 20 Jun 2012 03:32 AM PDT gold.ie |
| Growth Versus Austerity: A U.S. Dollar Perspective Posted: 20 Jun 2012 03:21 AM PDT Merk Fund |
| Trading Comments, 20 June 2012 (posted 17h15 CET): Posted: 20 Jun 2012 02:15 AM PDT Guesses about what the Fed will do today are wide and varied. The weak dollar over the past several days suggests to me that the market is setting up for another QE program. If so, today's |
| Posted: 20 Jun 2012 02:11 AM PDT Spot gold was bid at $1,593.50 per ounce at this morning's lows while spot silver fell to 9 pennies beneath the $28 level losing more than 50 cents ahead of the open. |
| ECB: decrease of oz793.09 in gold and gold receivables Posted: 20 Jun 2012 02:05 AM PDT |
| Gold ends lower as safe-haven bids dwindle Posted: 20 Jun 2012 01:50 AM PDT
from marketwatch.com: Gold for August delivery GCQ2 -1.00% retreated $3.80, or 0.2%, to $1,623.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal had traded as high as $1,634.30 an ounce earlier, according to FactSet Research. Gold gained for most of Asian and European trading hours, and at times traded in the black during U.S. floor trading as investors held hope Fed officials may hint at stimulus this week. Fresh easing measures would spur further upside for gold. "Gold is fairly priced at $1,620, $1,630 an ounce … and everyone is waiting to see what the Federal Reserve is going to say," said James Cordier, a portfolio manager with Optionsellers.com in Florida. Keep on reading @ marketwatch.com |
| 4 month results after using Andrew Mcguire service Posted: 20 Jun 2012 01:47 AM PDT Not sure if any of you use his metals trades service.. He basically feeds you trades as he does them at Coghlan Capital www.coghlancapital.com Here's my 4 month test results Trading 1 contract gold since March 1st with $20K initial account balance.. March Profit $2162.80 April Profit $1787.20 May Profit $2809.90 June (1st-20th) Profit $2206.90 It works. Will begin trading larger and post results in a few months. |
| Gold recovers as post-Greek election optimism fizzles Posted: 20 Jun 2012 01:44 AM PDT
from business.financialpost.com: LONDON —Gold prices recovered much of their early losses on Monday as appetite for higher-risk assets, which followed a victory for pro-bailout parties in Greek elections, dwindled and the euro and Spanish and Italian stocks and bonds fell. The metal was still down for the first session in seven after the election dampened talk that Greece was set to exit the euro zone. But pessimism over the euro debt crisis quickly returned. Assets seen as safer such as German government bonds and the dollar recovered from lows, while stocks, the euro and hard commodities pared gains. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,624.04 an ounce at 0959 GMT, off an early low of $1,606.49. U.S. gold futures for August delivery were down $3.50 at $1,624.60. Keep on reading @ business.financialpost.com |
| Indian gold seen hitting another peak this week Posted: 20 Jun 2012 01:38 AM PDT
from in.reuters.com: Indian gold futures are likely to extend gains this week to hit a record high, on expectations of a further depreciation in the rupee and monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. "Gold should maintain the upward bias till at least tomorrow. Tomorrow being the FOMC announcement," said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director with Commtrendz Research in Mumbai. At 1255 GMT, the most-active gold for August delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was 0.18 percent higher at 30,363 rupees per 10 grams, after hitting a record high of 30,428 rupees. "Buy gold on dips to 30,250 rupees, for a target of 30,575 rupees," said Thiagarajan.The rupee, which fell for a second straight session to hit its lowest level in more than two weeks, plays an important role in determining the landed cost of the dollar-quoted yellow metal. Keep on reading @ in.reuters.com |
| Gold Seen Falling a Second Day in London Before Fed Decision Posted: 20 Jun 2012 01:33 AM PDT from businessweek.com: Gold is set to decline for a second day in London as investors await the outcome of the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy meeting. The central bank decides whether to add further stimulus when it concludes a two-day meeting today. The Fed will expand Operation Twist beyond $400 billion to spur growth and buy protection against a deeper crisis in Europe, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Euro-area leaders at the Group of 20 summit in Mexico yesterday pledged to take "all necessary policy measures" to defend the currency union. "Some nervous low-volume trading is to be expected ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's statement," Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, wrote today in a report. "Unless the dollar tumbles, there is little chance for a sustained rebound in gold." Keep on reading @ businessweek.com |
| Posted: 20 Jun 2012 01:22 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: This article is really about potential energy. The coming gold stock mania is gathering essential potential ahead of the most exciting capital growth opportunity we may witness in our lifetimes. As if this was not valuable enough, it will occur as other assets continue to devalue. This is the role of gold for investors in a crisis. For the banks it may well assist them to regain confidence once it is completely lost. Before I get into this discussion, we need to check a number of factors. I need to begin with a basic and that is that there are a limited number of gold producers on a global basis. Investors will get crowded out of physical and there will be a scramble for gold stocks in all markets due to their rarity. China remains the world's number one gold producer however it is a net importer. This means that the growing production is not able to keep up with their growing demand. I have read this figure may be as high as an additional 400 tonnes of gold per annum, over and above the 360 tonnes produced on a per annum basis (as of last year). This reduces the annual global supply of gold back to circa 1,700 metric tonnes. The world's next largest producer of gold is Australia with around 265 tonnes in each of 2010 and 2011. Australia does export gold and therefore it contributes to fresh global supply. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Will Congress Aggravate Silver Manipulation?1 Posted: 20 Jun 2012 01:10 AM PDT Will Congress Aggravate Silver Manipulation?1 Tuesday June 19, 2012, 4:15am PDT By Michelle Smith2 - Exclusive to Silver Investing News3  In 2008, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC5) began investigating silver manipulation. That investigation is still underway6 and manipulation continues to plague the market. Members of the silver community have grown increasingly cynical about the CFTC's ability and willingness to reign in manipulative practices, and US lawmakers' decisions regarding the CFTC's responsibilities and funding are raising the question of whether it is reasonable to expect improvement. In the past, the CFTC's job was to oversee the commodities markets, ensuring that they were transparent and free of fraud and manipulation. Many believe the agency has executed these tasks poorly as silver price manipulation is considered ongoing and obvious. Now, in the era of Dodd-Frank, lawmakers have decided that the CFTC should also oversee the swaps market. Swaps are financial products that are so opaque and complex that US authorities have yet to define them. They played a central role in the 2008 financial crisis, and according to CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler, the swaps market is eight times that of the futures market. Yet a recent budget vote7 by the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies revealed that lawmakers want the CFTC to oversee both the futures and swaps markets with reduced funding, which Gensler portrays as virtually impossible. In 2012, the CFTC had a budget of $205 million. For 2013, the CFTC wants to increase that to $308 million. However, Gensler said8 the House Subcommittee wants to chop the CFTC's budget to $180 million. "Picture the NFL expanding eightfold to play more than 100 football games in a weekend, leaving just one referee per game, and in some cases, no referee. Imagine the mayhem on the field, the resulting injuries to players and the loss of confidence fans would have in the integrity of the game," Gensler said. According to the chairman, the effect of cutting the CFTC's budget amounts to Congress siding with Wall Street instead of the American public. Impact on silver manipulation potentially negative That US legislators would vote for this cut while expecting the agency to take on such a huge set of responsibilities definitely raises questions about their commitment to regulation. And, given the potential "mayhem on the field" that Gensler describes, silver investors should be wondering if the CFTC's handling of silver manipulation will improve or worsen. At first glance, it would seem that an agency claiming to be underfunded and understaffed would perform poorly in the circumstances. However, according to Gensler, the oversight of swaps may help to spur progress in regulation of the silver market. Individuals who allege that there is silver manipulation tend to believe that prices are artificially low because certain large firms – such as J.P. Morgan9 (NYSE:JPM10) (JPM), the poster child of these allegations – use massive short positions to cap the metal's price. Ted Butler of Butler Research is considered a leading authority on the issue of silver manipulation. He alleges11 that JPM has an inexplicable short position equaling about 25 to 30 percent of the total world market for paper and physical silver. Butler says this type of concentration does not exist in any other major market. And, he has been waiting for years for the CFTC to answer one question: how can such a massive short position be anything other than manipulation? Position limits needed During his recent C-SPAN appearance, Gensler advocated transparency and regulation. He would not comment directly on the silver manipulation investigation because it is still active. However, he did reveal that his agency already has a solution in the works that will help to address the concerns. "One of the things we are putting in place – it's still a work in progress – are position limits," Gensler announced. He said the silver markets are concentrated and it's critical that the CFTC completes these limits so that no one speculator can have an outsized position. "Position limits goes to the heart of the matter," said Butler, who noted that he has been fighting to have them implemented for 25 years. You cannot have a free market when one party has an extremely large position on one side, according to Butler. Thus, the absence of limits facilitates market manipulation. "To put position limits in place is like the putting the stake through the heart of Dracula," Butler said. Implementation of limits delayed One of the holdups with implementing these limits is Wall Street's substantial and staunch opposition to these measures. Last year, the International Swaps and Derivative Association and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association jointly filed a lawsuit12 against the CFTC after it proposed the rules. Also, Gensler claimed there are rules that must be jointly established with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). He encouraged people to call the SEC and urge it to help finalize the rules. Gensler portrayed the commission as committed to upholding its mission. And while position limits may help, there is also the issue of enforcement. Gensler said a well-funded cop on the beat is needed to fight against fraud and manipulation. But, he also admitted that the CFTC, with a staff of about 700, does not have enough people to directly examine market participants on a regular basis. He said it gets to the CME every several years and because it is thinly staffed, with hundreds of market participants to oversee, it relies on self-regulatory agencies. With resistance from deep-pocketed Wall Street players and increased responsibilities that are not matched with adequate increases in funding, one can only wonder how much more thinly spread the CFTC will become and whether it is realistic to expect silver manipulation to be a priority. As far as the CFTC's need for increased funds, Butler said that when he looks "at the agency's performance in terminating silver manipulation as an indication of what they would do overall with additional funding, [he] wouldn't give them a dime." http://silverinvestingnews.com/12583...m_medium=email |
| Gold’s value is more than just its price Posted: 20 Jun 2012 01:01 AM PDT from marketwatch.com: If it was, goes the argument, the price would be rising as people continue buying. This reaction is unsurprising given gold's GCQ2 -1.00% strong performance since the onset of the financial crisis, with the price climbing to just shy of $2,000 an ounce last August on rising demand in response to continued volatility and the accelerating sovereign debt crisis. Why, many are asking, is gold not responding to pronounced uncertainty now in the same way it did in 2011? It is a valid question, the answer to which can be found when one examines gold's performance during previous crisis periods. It is not uncommon for gold to have a delayed reaction to macro-economic events. As one of the few assets which holds its value during turbulent economic times, investors often sell gold in order to raise liquidity to meet actual and potential margin calls in other sectors. Keep on reading @ marketwatch.com |
| Gold pays no interest, has no use and no fundamental value – really? Posted: 20 Jun 2012 12:55 AM PDT
from moneyweek.com: I know I'm supposed to be taking the summer off, but comments on Twitter from Alan Beattie, international economy editor of the Financial Times, raised hackles and lured me from my bunker. Beattie declares that there is "no fundamental valuation model" for gold; that "it pays no interest" and that therefore it's "intrinsically speculative". Really?These are common arguments we hear from the gold-has-no-use brigade. I want to address them. First, gold pays no interest. True. But then, nor does cash – unless you lend it to people. The world needs to realise that by putting cash in the bank you are lending it. Gold can pay interest – if you lend it out. And lots of people do (though for what purpose I cannot say). Keep on reading @ moneyweek.com |
| Posted: 20 Jun 2012 12:51 AM PDT
from dailyreckoning.com.au: The Rossis didn't make it! The Blue Panda has failed! In today's Daily Reckoning we learn the fate of our intrepid Italians, fleeing to Switzerland with a box of loot in the boot. This is a real-life version of a fictional event we staged a few months ago to illustrate what happens when capital controls are put in place as money dies. When people lose confidence in money, they take what they can and run. Our story involved a small Italian family by the name of Rossi. The Rossis weren't smuggling gold. They were trying to survive an 'exchange event'. That's an event where one currency replaces another and your savings are forcibly converted at a fixed exchange rate into the new currency, usually at a rate that results in the loss of purchasing power. A few months ago we speculated that people in southern Europe might begin moving their money north in attempt to avoid just such an event – unless they were stopped at the border. Keep on reading @ dailyreckoning.com.au |
| Posted: 20 Jun 2012 12:37 AM PDT
from telegraph.co.uk: European leaders are poised to use two rescue funds to buy Spanish and Italian debts in a £600bn bail-out, as a Bank of England policy maker tells traders to prepare for a devastating market seizure like that seen as the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Cheap and ready access to the liquid assets that oil the financial markets are under threat from both state-imposed capital controls and flagging confidence in the euro, said Robert Jenkins, a member of the Bank's Financial Policy Committee. Keep on reading @ telegraph.co.uk |
| Posted: 20 Jun 2012 12:31 AM PDT - Pressemitteilung des GEAB vom 20. Juni 2012 (GEAB N°66) -  Die Entwicklung der weltweiten Ereignisse spielt sich entsprechend der Vorhersagen, die LEAP/E2020 in den vergangenen Monaten erarbeitet hat, ab. Euroland erwacht seit der Wahl Francois Hollandes an die Spitze Frankreichs (1) endlich aus seiner politischen Lähmung und beendet seine Politik des Durchwurstelns, während die Griechen soeben eindeutig ihren Willen erklärt haben, ihre Probleme als Mitglied Eurolands (2) lösen zu wollen und somit alle "Prognosen" der angelsächsischen Medien und der Euroskeptiker widerlegt haben. Ab sofort kann Euroland (um genauer zu sein - die EU minus Großbritannien) sich fortentwickeln und in den Jahren 2012 bis 2016 ein wahres Projekt politischer Integration, wirtschaftlicher Effizienz und Demokratisierung verfolgen, wie dies LEAP/E2020 in der 62. Ausgabe des GEAB vom Februar 2012 vorhergesagt hatte. Diese ist sicherlich eine gute Nachricht, aber für die nächste Zeit wird diese "Zweite Renaissance" des europäischen Integrationsprojekts (3) weltweit die einzig gute Nachricht bleiben. Alle anderen großen Linien der weltweiten Situation laufen auf eine Verschlechterung der Lage, ja gar Katastrophen zu. Allmählich fangen die großen Medien an, über eine Situation zu berichten, die wir schon vor langer Zeit für den Sommer 2012 vorhergesehen hatten. In der einen oder anderen Weise, häufiger im Innenteil als auf den Titelblättern (die seit Monaten ausschließlich über Griechenland und den Euro berichten), finden sich in den großen Zeitungen nunmehr die folgenden 13 Themen: 1. Weltweite Rezession (weit und breit springt Wachstumsmotor zu an/Ende des Mythos vom "amerikanischen Aufschwung") (4) 2. Wachsende Zahlungsschwierigkeiten des gesamten Banken - und Finanzsystems der westlichen Staaten; inzwischen wird dieses Problem von zumindest einem Teil der Medien, Politiker und der Öffentlichkeit erkannt 3.Zunehmendes Misstrauen gegen die wichtigsten Bilanzwerte der großen internationalen Banken wie Staatsanleihen, Immobilien und CDS 4. Massiver Rückgang des Welthandels (5) 5. Internationale Spannungen (insbesondere im Mittleren Osten) verschärfen sich bis zum konkreten Risiko eines Regionalkriegs 6. Dauerhafte Pattsituation bei den Vereinten Nationen 7. Rapider Zusammenbruch des gesamten westlichen Systems der kapitalfinanzierten Rente (6) 8. Wachsende politische Spannungen innerhalb der globalen Supermächten (USA, China, Russland), die nach außen immer so "monolitisch" erschienen 9. Keine Aussicht auf erneute "Wunderlösungen" wie 2008/2009, da den großen Zentralbanken des Westen (FED, Bank of England, Bank of Japan) die Kontrolle über ihre Geldpolitik entgleitet und die Staaten überschuldet sind 10. Rasch abnehmendes Vertrauen in all die Staaten, die selbst und ihre Bevölkerung hoch verschuldet sind 11. Unmöglichkeit, den Anstieg der Massen- und Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit zu verhindern oder zu verlangsamen 12. Scheitern der Politik der kreditfinanzierten Konjunkturprogramme wie auch der Austeritätspolitik 13. Quasi durchgehende Ineffizienz der verschiedenen internationalen Organisationen, ob alt oder neu, G20, G8, Rio+20, WHO etc. bezüglich aller wichtigen Themen. Angesichts des Fehlens jeglichen Konsens gelingt es noch nicht einmal mehr, sich auf eine weltweite Tagesordnung zu einigen (7), sei es zu Wirtschaft, Finanzmärkten, Umwelt, Konfliktlösung, Armutsbekämpfung usw.  Nach der Auffassung von LEAP/E2020 und in Übereinstimmung mit seinen schon nicht mehr ganz neuen Vorhersagen wie auch denen, die Franck Biancheri 2010 in seinem Buch « Nach der Krise - Auf dem Weg in die Welt von Morgen » vorgestellt hat, durchläuft die umfassende weltweite Krise im zweiten Halbjahr 2012 einen Krümmungspunkt, der ihren Charakter verändert und daher auch neue Antworten und Maßnahmen erfordert. Dabei wird ein Phänomen, das aber recht leicht zu verstehen ist, entscheidend sein: Dass Euroland heute in einer Verfassung ist, mit der es der kommenden Zeit mit Optimismus entgegensehen kann (8), ist nur der Tatsache geschuldet, dass es in den letzten Jahren eine Krise von einer Intensität und Tiefe durchschritten hat, wie dies noch nie der Fall war seit Beginn des europäischen Einigungsprojekts nach dem Ende des Zweiten Weltkrieg (9). Ab Endes dieses Sommers 2012 werden alle anderen großen Mächte weltweit, allen voran die USA (10), einen vergleichbaren Prozess durchmachen müssen. Nur wenn sie bereit sind, diesen Weg einzuschlagen, werden sie in einigen Jahren in der Lage sein, allmählich wieder aus der Talsohle zu neuen Höhen aufzusteigen. Aber heute, nachdem sie mit allen Mitteln versuchten, den Fristablauf ihrer alten Größe hinauszuschieben, wird ihnen die Rechnung präsentiert. Wie in allen Lebensbereichen ist für den Versuch, das Unvermeidbar zu verhindern, ein hoher Preis zu zahlen, nämlich die Konfrontation der Illusion mit der Realität und die daraus folgende Krise, die weniger hart gewesen wäre, wenn rechtzeitig Anpassungsmaßnahmen an die neue Realität ergriffen worden wären. Für die Welt vor der Krise ist das Spiel nun vorbei. Die sieben Trompeten vor Jericho werden im September/Oktober 2012 ertönen und die letzten Reste der "Dollarmauer", die noch die Nachkriegsordnung zu schützen vermocht hatten, zum Einsturz bringen. Der Schock des Herbst 2008 wird im Vergleich zu dem, was uns in den nächsten Monaten bevorsteht, wie ein kleines Sommergewitter erscheinen. Wir haben noch nie seit 2006, als wir mit unseren Arbeiten zur umfassenden weltweiten Krise begannen, ein Zusammentreffen einer solchen Reihe von Faktoren grundlegender Bedeutung von so hoher Sprengkraft innerhalb einer so kurzen Zeitspanne konstatieren müssen. Entsprechend müssen wir nun im Rahmen unseres Bemühens, regelmäßig einen "Krisenwetterbericht" herauszugeben, die höchste Warnstufe ausrufen; denn was dem globalen System im September/Oktober 2012 bevorsteht, rechtfertigt diese Warnung allemal.  In dieser 66. Ausgabe des GEAB stellen wir unsere Vorhersagen zu sieben Schlüsselfaktoren des Schocks vom September/Oktober 2012 vor, sozusagen die sieben Trompeten vor Jericho (11), die die Mauern der Welt von Gestern zum Einsturz bringen werden. Vier dieser Faktoren sind geopolitischer Art und im Mittleren Osten angesiedelt, drei sind finanzieller und wirtschaftlicher Art. 1. Iran/Israel/USA: Der eine Krieg zu viel wird sehr wohl ausbrechen 2. Die syrische Bombe: Das israelisch-amerikanisch- iranische Streichholz am Syrisch-Irakischen Pulverfass 3. Der arabische Herbst: Die Golfstaaten werden von den Herbststürmen weggefegt. 4. Das AfPak- Chaos: Die US- Armee und die Nato als Gefangene eines Krieges, aus dem der Rückzug immer schwieriger wird 5. USA: "Taxmargeddon" setzt mit dem Sommer 2012 ein - Die US- Wirtschaft ab Herbst im freien Fall 6. Die Mutter aller Bankeninsolvenzen macht im September/Oktober 2012 in London und New York ihre Aufwartung: Auch die City und Wall Street erleben ihren "Bankia- Moment" 7. Die unerträgliche Leichtigkeit des QE des Sommers 2012 - Die amerikanische, britische und japanische Zentralbank zur Ohnmacht verdammt Weiterhin legen wir konkrete Empfehlungen vor, die helfen sollen, die Auswirkungen des bevorstehenden Schocks wirtschaftlich zu minimieren, unabhängig davon, ob man Privatmann ist oder Chef eines Unternehmens. Auch präsentieren wir diesen Monat wieder den Global Europa Dollar- Index. Zuletzt gibt LEAP/E2020 bekannt, dass es im kommenden Herbst erneut seine Fortbildung in der Politischen Antizipation anbietet; diese wird zukünftig online durchgeführt werden, um die weltweite Nachfrage befriedigen zu können. Im Bereich der Politischen Antizipation ist der GEAB der "Fisch", mit dem ein punktuelles Interesse an Vorhersagen befriedigt werden kann, während die Fortbildung die "Angelrute" ist, mit der immer mehr Menschen in die Lage versetzt werden sollen, selber ihrer Vorhersagen aus den trüben Wassern der Zukunft zu fischen. Denn wenn man die Hoffnung hegt, dass das Ende der Welt von Gestern in eine bessere Welt von Morgen mündet, dann ist dies nur berechtigt, wenn möglichst viele Menschen lernen, ihre eigenen Vorhersagemöglichkeiten zu verbessern. Denn dieser Mangel an Antizipation ist ursächlich dafür, dass falsche Wege eingeschlagen wurden, die uns in die Krise geführt haben. Die Fortbildung wird durchgeführt von der gemeinnützigen Stiftung nach spanischem Recht FEFAP (Fondacion por l'Educacion e la Formacion a l'Anticipation Politica), die vor Kurzem dank einer Spende von Franck Biancheri aus der Taufe gehoben werden konnte (12). ----------- Noten: (1) Nunmehr beschäftigen sich die Debatten, die um so besser für Europa sind, wenn sie offen und mit großer Bandbreite geführt werden, mit der mittelfristigen Perspektive für Europa, der Frage der politischen Integration und den notwendigen neuen Institutionen. Bis zum Ende des Sommers wird sich Euroland als neue entscheidende europäische Dimension durchgesetzt haben; damit wird es möglich werden, die Debatten aus dem Rahmen der Institutionen für 27 Mitgliedstaaten zu befreien, die heute in einem so schlechten Zustand und in denen britische Interessen allgegenwärtig sind, dass es, jedenfalls zur Zeit, unmöglich ist, ihnen die wichtige Aufgabe zu überantworten, eine Governance für Euroland zu errichten. Die Schwierigkeiten zwischen Hollande und Merkel sind das Ergebnis dieser Lage und nicht so sehr eine Frage der unterschiedlichen Ansätze für die zukünftige Europapolitik von "Gemeinschaftsinstitutionen" oder "Intergouvernementalität". Auch die Brüsseler Institutionen sind Teil der Welt vor der Krise und nicht in der Lage, die Welt nach der Krise aus der Taufe zu heben. Quellen : Deutsche Welle, 11/06/2012 ; Spiegel, 06/05/2012 ; ElPais, 10/06/2012 ; LaTribune, 10/06/2012 (2) Die Euroland- Mitgliedschaft wird es den Griechen erleichtern, ihr Land nach 30 vergeudeten Jahren EU- Mitgliedschaft, in denen jegliche Chance zur Modernisierung der Grundlagen des Staates vergeben wurde, an die Erfordernisse der neuen Zeit anzupassen. Quelle : YahooNews, 18/06/2012 (3) MarketWatch vom 14/06/2012 geht sogar soweit, der Schweiz vorherzusagen, dass auch sie in absehbarer Zeit Mitglied Eurolands werden muss - wie LEAP schon seit einiger Zeit argumentiert. (4) Quellen : Bloomberg, 15/06/2012 ; Albawaba, 12/06/2012 ; ChinaDaily, 05/06/2012 ; CNNMoney, 11/05/2012 ; Telegraph, 04/06/2012 ; MarketWatch, 05/04/2012 (5) Quelle : IrishTimes, 12/04/2012 ; CNBC, 08/06/2012 (6) Quellen : WashingtonPost, 11/06/2012 ; Telegraph, 11/06/2012 ; TheAustralian, 15/06/2012 ; Spiegel, 06/05/2012 ; ChinaDaily, 15/06/2012 (7) In nur zwei Jahren ist der globale Konsens über die wichtigen Zukunftsthemen weitgehend zerfallen. (8) Wir gehen davon aus, dass nun das Thema einer gemeinsamen europäischen Verteidigungspolitik in das Zentrum der Debatte über die politische Integration rücken wird. Wie auch der Euro das Ergebnis eines komplexen Kompromisses war, bei dem die Franzosen bereit waren, die deutsche Einigung zu unterstützen, wenn Deutschland dafür die Deutsche Mark in die europäische Gemeinschaftswährung einbrachte, wird der neue Integrationsschritt beinhalten, dass Deutschland bereit ist, für europäische Schulden zu bürgen, wenn Frankreich im Gegenzug bereit ist, seine atomare Abschreckung mit seinen europäischen Partnern (zumindest denen von Euroland) zu teilen. Die neue französische Regierung wird dann drei Dinge entdecken: Dass Verteidigungs- und Sicherheitsfragen für ihre Eurolandpartner entgegen dem bisherigen Anschein von höchster Priorität sind (weil insbesondere das Vertrauen in die Schutzgarantie der Amerikaner bröckelt), dass es keinen Grund dafür gibt, dass der neue Integrationsschritt nur in Deutschland zu einer komplexen und schwierigen Debatte führt (auch Frankreich muss sich dieser Debatte stellen) und dass drittens die öffentlichen Meinungen solchen konkreten Maßnahmen gegenüber viel aufgeschlossener sind als gegenüber unverständlichen juristischen Verträgen, wie dies 2005 der Fall war. In Verteidigungsfragen wurden bereits die Weichen neu gestellt: Frankreich setzt sich still und leise von seiner privilegierten Partnerschaft mit Großbritannien ab, um sich erneut auf eine Zusammenarbeit mit Deutschland und den Ländern des Kontinents zu konzentrieren. Die Tatsache, dass Großbritannien bei der europäischen Verteidigung immer viel verspricht und nichts hält (letztes Beispiel: Der Bau gemeinsamer Flugzeugträger droht zu scheitern, weil Großbritannien beschlossen hat, seinen Flugzeugträger doch nicht so umzubauen, dass auf ihm auch französische Flugzeuge landen können), wurde schließlich als das analysiert, was es ist, nämlich ein dauerhafter Versuch, die Entwicklung einer gemeinsamen europäischen Verteidigung zu verhindern. Und die drastischen Einschnitte in das britische Verteidigungsbudget verringern die Attraktivität Großbritanniens als verteidigungspolitischen Partner deutlich. Quellen : Monde Diplomatique, 15/05/2012 ; Telegraph, 06/06/2012 ; Le Point, 14/06/2012 (9) Ein Schock, der überhaupt nur so schwer wirken konnte, weil die Europäer in dieser Zeit sich als unfähig erwiesen haben, sich gegen die Medienkampagne der Londoner City und Wall Street zu wehren, die zum einen die Aufmerksamkeit von ihren eigenen Schwierigkeiten ablenken wollten und um zum anderen alles daran setzten, dieses Euroland, das im Entstehen war und die für sie so günstige Nachkriegsordnung in Bedrängnis brachte, zum Scheitern zu bringen. (10) Der Wohlstand der Amerikaner ist laut einer kürzlich erfolgten Studie der US- Zentralbank zwischen 2007 und 2010 um 40% gesunken. Wir erlauben uns daran zu erinnern, dass wir schon 2006 in den ersten Ausgaben des GEAB schrieben, dass in der Krise die amerikanischen Haushalte bis zu 50% ihres Vermögens einbüßen würden; damals wurde diese Vorhersage von den meisten "Experten" als "abwegig" abqualifiziert. Die Studie reicht aber nur bis 2010. Nach unserer Auffassung steht den US- Haushalten noch eine weitere Wohlstandseinbuße von mindestens 20% ins Haus. Mit dieser kleinen Erinnerung wollen wir unterstreichen, dass eine der größten Schwierigkeiten der Politischen Antizipation in dem immensen Beharrungsvermögen der öffentlichen Meinungen und dem Mangel an Phantasie der Experten begründet ist. Das eine bedingt das andere und alle glauben, dass auch in Zukunft alles so bleiben werde wie bisher. Quellen: WashingtonPost, 11/06/2012 ; US Federal Reserve, 06/2012 (11) Mehr zu der Legende von den Trompeten vor Jericho : Wikipedia (12) Er dürfte einer der wenigen gewesen sein, die in den letzten Wochen Geld in das spanische Bankensystem eingebracht haben. Das ist doch ein schöner Beweis, dass Analyse und Handeln übereinstimmen. |
| Central Banks Begin Mini Coordinated Expansion – Fed to Join? Posted: 20 Jun 2012 12:21 AM PDT
from wealthcycles.com: All signs point to more inflation, defined as an increase in the supply of currency and credit, This means better prospects for savers of gold and silver. The mini (so far) coordinated expansion of currency and credit is the reason why. Let's take a look. Bank of England This complements their existing asset purchase (more printing) program that has been on hold since May, after the program reached its £325 billion target. They purchased £125 billion since October. The new £100 billion mini-Long-Term Refinancing Operation-like (LTRO) program is expected to pump a minimum of £5 billion a month in new currency into circulation. The size of the easing is on par with the Federal Reserve's current policy of reinvesting income from their portfolio of mortgages. While the acceptance of shady-quality paper by central banks is nothing new (see ECB LTRO program), the junk bond fund known as the ECB may also consider loosening its standards further in light of margin calls set to demand billions to be put up by Spain and Italy. Keep on reading @ wealthcycles.com |
| FOMC ‘Policy Gesture’ Expected but No Fresh QE Posted: 20 Jun 2012 12:14 AM PDT Spot market gold prices dropped back towards $1,600 an ounce ahead of Wednesday's US trading – 1.5% down on last week's close – while stocks and commodities were broadly flat and US Treasuries fell ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision due later today. |
| Pressured European Central Banks Won't Unload Gold Posted: 19 Jun 2012 11:44 PM PDT From our friends at the Pert Mint down under: "The Perth Mint's Bron Suchecki says that gold prices are determined less by demand than the withholding of supply. "If you look at the gold market, there's quite a lot of above ground gold in stock. Mine supply is 2,800t, but the total amount of gold held above ground is 170,000t. So what matters is whether the holders of that above ground stock are going to sell or not. If they sell then that could easily overwhelm the marginal supply that's coming out of mining companies." Rightly, investors are interested in the intentions of central banks towards gold. With many under pressure as a result of Europe's financial crisis, Bron summarises his views on the likely actions of central banks in this interview with The Street. Source: Perth Mint and TheStreet.com via YouTube http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=J_l44MwVx0c
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| Could Gold Repeat Summer 2011 Gain of Over 27%? Posted: 19 Jun 2012 11:34 PM PDT Gold dipped today despite Wall Street hopes that the US Fed will embark on more QE. As we have said for some time QE3, or a new term for electronic and paper money creation, is a certainty and this will lead to inflation hedging and safe haven demand for gold.... |
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