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Sunday, March 18, 2012

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The Moose is loose ...coin deal

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 03:35 AM PDT

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Another Healthy Correction For Gold And Silver

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 12:23 AM PDT

By Jason Hamlin:

I have received several emails this week asking my thoughts on the current price action in precious metals. Some subscribers are asking how low gold and silver might go in the short term and my honest response is "I have no idea." Anyone that claims they can predict the short-term price movements in a market as manipulated as this one is blowing hot air. The banks can utilize leveraged paper contracts to take gold down to $1,200 and silver to $20 if they want to, in the short term.

However, they absolutely can not keep prices this low for very long, as free market forces will bring things back into equilibrium. In fact, recent take down attempts have been met rather quickly with buying from strong hands, much of it likely coming from China. While I still believe that the manipulators can create rather substantial take downs that scare weak


Complete Story »

WATCH: Kyle Bass on BCC HardTalk

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 11:49 PM PDT

Another classic unearthed from the TVR archives..

From 11.16.11 BCC HardTalk Kyle Bass:
"Buying gold is just buying a put against the idiocy of the political cycle. It's That Simple"

~TVR

Gold: A Risk Asset?

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 11:46 PM PDT

By QFINANCE:

By Anthony Harrington

After tearing away to the 1900s in September 2011, and making goldbugs everywhere think that the $2000 mark was within reach, the tide turned for gold. In a breathtakingly short period of time the price wandered back down to the low 1500s and at one point the mid 1400s looked on the cards. Now it is back in the 1780s at the time of writing, and somewhat marooned there. However, the kind of sudden drop gold experienced through the end of 2011 tends to make people think of the 1980s, when gold crashed to sub $300 – precisely the point when former Chancellor Gordon Brown, in a splendid example of how not to time the markets, decided that the moment was ripe to sell off the UK's gold reserves.

Brown's venture into trading secured a price of around $260 an ounce for the nation, instead of today's


Complete Story »

Silver: Setting Up For A Potentially Strong Move

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 11:22 PM PDT

By Avi Gilburt:

Since I began writing for Seeking Alpha, we have had quite a nice and successful run in the metals markets. After publishing an article several months ago calling the bottom in the silver market, our latest market call was published on February 26, calling for a pullback in silver. Specifically, I wrote that "I am expecting the silver market to top out over the next few days within the $36 region."

One February 29, the precious metals entered into what some termed a "flash crash" of its own, and proceeded to begin the correction that was warned about several days earlier. Even before the correction began, we provided guidance that the correction will potentially target the 30-32 region in the silver futures.

As you know, this past week, we dropped right into our target zone for this correction. So, the question many have been asking is what is going to


Complete Story »

Weekly Market Movers: March 19-23

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 11:14 PM PDT

The US dollar made a strong run during the week, but the gains were undone towards the end. US housing data and unemployment claims are the highlight of this week. Here is an outlook on the major events shaping this week's Forex trading.

The FOMC Statement contained no hints of QE3 and also notions of higher employment and inflation. This sent the dollar higher across the board, and broke correlations, although it didn't last. It was later a series of positive US figures reconfirmed a real recovery process in the US economy. All in all these are positive figures for the US economy. Will this upbeat trend continue? In Europe, the second bailout for Greece was finally approved by the Eurogroup and the IMF. This front will likely be quiet, but not for too long.

  1. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. Inflation in the UK continued to decline in January reaching

Complete Story »

Working Poor Brit? Sale on at Sarnia Silver

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 11:09 PM PDT

For any of our UK members, I just saw this from Silver Shield:

Just thought I'd share this information for anyone browsing from the UK.

As you may be aware there's a VAT loop-hole for silver sent to the UK from Guernsey. If the item is less than £15 then the item is VAT free. This loop-hole is being closed at the end of this month.

Sarnia are selling-off their half ounces and my best so far was one at £13.89 including delivery. Anyone in the UK should know this is a good ideal.

Anyway, here's the link:

http://www.sarniasilver.com/seconds.html


http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-...=silver+shield

A Truism And Lesson In Over Bought And Over sold

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 09:37 PM PDT

"When everyone's calling for a funeral, get ready for a resurrection." –Richard Band

The GDM Gold Miners Index (NYSE-Arca) Is A Longer View Of The Sector.

This group is now touching the oversold area by several measures. The RSI Relative Strength Index (top box) is going negative under the major support and resistance line at 50. However, in the larger price box we see a low at 1433.28 with an inverted bull pattern from October, 2011 to our present close. The 50-day average at 1586.98 is major resistance and when our price touches it, we stall before the resumption of the next rally in these stocks. For this year of 2012, we have had a positive run from a low in early January (see MACD box blue bars rising). All markets go in cycles and these miners pretty much trend with the precious their miners do mine. Our 50% retracement is $1600, our next higher resistance on this index.

Some say the precious metals rallies are over and done but we disagree. We read a very large bank report this morning containing over 100 pages. This is a global bank but analysts who wrote the report are credible and have a smart outlook in our view. The gold rallies can last until 2017, or even to 2024 as some are saying. Marc Faber, a noted analyst and economist told The Gold Report that mid-stream longer view gold corrections can pull back as much as -40%, yet remain on a longer bull trend. If you are a longer term investor it might be smart to consider this in risk management. Mr. Faber is a hard money physical buy-and-hold manager. We would concur with his thinking.


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Financial Sense Newshour interviews Ted Butler on silver market rigging

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 07:07 PM PDT

Gold ETFs thorn in the eye of Indian jewellery traders

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 06:09 PM PDT

Silver Technicals

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 06:00 PM PDT

AARP Back in Bed With Effort to Cut Social Security and Medicare

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 03:01 PM PDT

Wow, the AARP must be taking lessons from the Democratic Party, that you can afford sell out your putative base if you do the bidding of really big moneyed interests.

In case you missed this saga (it wasn't one we posted on till now) in June last year, AARP's board approved supporting Social Security cuts. That followed a multi million dollar ad campaign against the very same stance. They planned to sell the future of old people living off dog food to the membership via a series of town hall meetings.

The backlash from the membership led to the purge of the policy chief John Rother, who was made a scapegoat.

The latest development, reported in the Huffington Post, shows the housecleaning didn't go far enough. AARP members need to demand resignation of all directors who are behind this scheme, which is probably all of them. Protests at their homes might be necessary to rein in an board which is so insistently defying its members wishes and interests.

And to add insult to injury, the AARP plans a "listening tour" which is of course not at all about listening but selling a "Grand Bargain" which is more Newspeak, in this case the idea of a budget deal that includes retirement program cuts. The Huffington Post does a great job of exposing how the leadership of the AARP is flat out lying to its members about its conduct:

An AARP invitation to a secret "Relaxed and Robust Evening of 'Salon Style' Conversation" to be held at a Capitol Hill home on March 27, obtained by The Huffington Post, indicates that the organization is still very much interested in a "grand-bargain" style deal that puts Social Security and Medicare cuts on the table…

The list of invitees to the salon event includes a gallery of powerful Washington establishment figures who are on record favoring cuts to Social Security and Medicare. The only firm opponent of Social Security or Medicare benefit cuts on the list, the Economic Policy Institute's Larry Mishel, said he wasn't planning to go and wasn't sure why he was listed as a featured guest. (AARP also responded to the request for comment by inviting HuffPost to attend the off-the-record gathering, an offer we plan to accept.)

Other listed invitees included business leaders and deficit hawks who have long argued for the cuts, including Tom Donohue of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, John Engler of the Business Roundtable group for corporate CEOs, and David Walker, a noted deficit alarmist and former head of the Government Accountability Office.

Yet the AARP wants its members to believe this sort of tripe:

"AARP is not pursuing any closed door deals or grand bargains," said an AARP spokeswoman. "Our main focus is hearing from our members, and all Americans, what they think about ways to strengthen Social Security and Medicare. That's precisely why we're launching 'You've Earned a Say.' We are interested in hearing from all sides and having civil discourse on these issues."

This isn't even a good con. The AARP has no business "hearing from all sides." Its mission is to represent its members, and they've made it clear they have no interest in having their benefits cut. Indeed, having the AARP stand firm would serve to put focus on the right issues which is that the real problem is Medicare, not Social Security, and the problem with Medicare is a broad social problem, that health care costs have and continue to rise much faster than inflation. Determined pushback from seniors and other parties could put focus on the real issue and serve as an important counterweight to the health care lobby.

The HuffPo article points out the fallacy of the leadership's turncoat logic:

"They want to be at the table when a deal is cut," said one person who declined to be named because he continues to work closely with AARP. The irony is that while AARP's legislative team may be convinced that a deal is inevitable, a grand bargain actively opposed by AARP would be effectively impossible for Congress to pass.

If you are a member of the AAPR or have relatives who are members, send this article on and tell them to call or write and tell the organization that you aren't standing for this. Nor should you. You are about to be sold out by incompetent lobbyists unless you make a stink. You can also join the campaign at Firedoglake to cancel the event.


Puplava - Eric Sprott and David Morgan Respond to CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton on Silver Manipulation

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 01:45 PM PDT

The introduction of this audio clip reads: "In a "virtual" roundtable with Jim Puplava, Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management and David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com each respond to excerpts from Jim's earlier interview with CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton on silver price manipulation."

To Listen follow the link below and choose an audio player.

Source:  Financial Sense
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/big-picture/2012/03/17/03/e-sprott-d-morgan-b-chilton/response-to-cftc-commissioner-silver-manipulation


Comment:  Worthy of sharing.  However, we wish that Mr. Puplava would have attempted to get Mr. Chilton (the CFTC regulator) and Messrs Sprott and Morgan to put the trading on the COMEX in a global context instead of acting or talking as though it is the only market for silver.  It isn't, of course.  The COMEX is not even the largest of silver markets.

Mr. Chilton makes the assertion that exemptions to position and accountability limits will be granted by the CFTC instead of the CME looking ahead.  As we have written in the past, exemptions were, in our opinion, the vehicle by which a few very large entities could amass size in the market multiples of the position and accountability limits and thus the potential to command unfair influence over the price from time to time...

Continued ...

Unfortunately Mr. Puplava misunderstood Chilton to mean exemptions would not be granted in the future.  Instead, exemptions will be granted by the CFTC not the exchanges.  Mr. Chilton put the best face on it, saying that they would only grant exemptions to traders who can demonstrate an economic need for it. 

We find that to be of little comfort.  It should be obvious that bullion banks can easily demonstrate an economic need by virtue of the inventory they hold, store and manage for themselves and clients. Better would have been a proviso that no trader would be granted exemptions to the new position limit regime, period.  Exemptions are a way for one entity to receive favoritism by a government agency and will likely be gamed by those with the influence to do so over time. 

Not that it matters for the price of silver over time. 

 

 

Chinese gold imports will keep increasing

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 12:00 PM PDT

Since China began to embrace economic progress in the 1990s and let the compelling forces of capitalism take hold to raise living standards in that country, its impact on world markets has been ...

LISTEN: One Hour With Ben Davies

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 10:10 AM PDT

Ben Davies talks with Frank Meyer about financial system events, precious metals, and more.

from Metallwoche.de:
Today we publish a highly recommended Interview with Ben Davies, Fundmanager and CEO of Hinde Capital in London. This interview really chronicles actual history. Ben Davies shares his views with us about the actual events in the financial system in a very impressive way and why physical gold is a must have in everybodys portfolio. You will not only listen to the views and opinions as a fundsmanager. Ben is kind enough to let us be part of his personal and private settings as well. For us at Metallwoche this makes this podcast unique.

More @ Metallwoche.de

Collections: LetsgetphysicalAg's Silver Collection

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 09:17 AM PDT

TVR salutes fellow patriot LetsgetphysicalAg and his very nice collection of Ag.

from LetsgetphysicalAg:
Part One

Part Two

~TVR

Ted Butler: How the Silver Manipulation Scheme Works

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 12:18 AM PDT

Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price ticked up slightly to its Far East high at the London open at 8:00 a.m. on Friday morning, but the not-for-profit sellers were lying in wait...and by the Comex open at 8:20 a.m. in New York, the low [$1,639.10 spot] was in for the day.

The subsequent rally from there managed to make it back to about the London opening high...around $1,664 spot price level...by 11:10 a.m. Eastern time, before getting quietly sold off about ten bucks going into the New York lunch hour.  From there, the price crept slowly higher right into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m.

Gold ended the New York trading session at $1,660.10 spot...up $2.80 on the day.  And, like Thursday, it's obvious that the gold price wanted to move higher during the New York trading session, but was allowed that luxury.  Net volume was a bit quieter...around 125,000 contracts.

The price pattern in silver was pretty much the same as it was for gold...and it wasn't allowed to close much over its Thursday highs, either.

Silver finished Friday trading at $32.05 spot...up the magnificent sum of 2 cents on the day.  Net volume also cooled off, as 'only' 34,000 contracts were traded.

The dollar index rallied about 20 basis points during early trading in the Far East on Friday morning...and reached its zenith just minutes after 11:00 a.m. in London, which was 6:00 a.m. in New York.

Then shortly after 8:00 a.m. in New York, the dollar had a waterfall decline...and within two hours was pretty much at its low of the day, falling almost 70 basis points from it's earlier high.  From there it traded flat into the 5:15 p.m. close.

The early morning rally in New York coincided perfectly with this fall in the dollar, but gold's attempt to break to new highs after that...despite a flat-lined dollar...is what got it sold off.

The gold stocks opened down about a percent, but immediately moved higher...only to run into a wall of selling every time it made any attempt to break above unchanged.  No for-profit seller sells into a market like that...ever!

The high tick in the gold stocks came at the high tick in the gold price...right to the minute.  And, for the second day in a row, the gold price finished higher and the stocks finished lower.  The HUI finished down 0.53% on the day...and 6.56% on the week.

The silver stocks finished mixed as well...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 0.73%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 88 gold contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday...and that was all.

There were no changes in either GLD nor SLV for the third day running so, once again, it's obvious that this week's smack-down in gold and silver was entirely a Comex paper affair...just like the Leap Day drive-by shooting that began on February 29th.  As a matter of fact, since the 29th, the amount of gold and silver in both ETFs has actually increased a bit.  That's quite amazing considering the fact that from the highs to the lows over those fourteen days...gold 'fell' $155...and silver 'fell' about six bucks.

The U.S. Mint had a sales report yesterday.  They sold 3,000 ounces of gold eagles...and 150,000 silver eagles.  Month-to-date the mint has sold 31,500 ounces of gold eagles...18,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 1,647,000 silver eagles.

There wasn't much activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday.  They reported receiving only 62,765 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 45,554 ounces of the stuff out the door.

Yesterday's Commitment of Traders Report was pretty much a yawner in silver.  The Commercial net short position in silver declined by only 165 contracts, which translates into 825,000 ounces of silver...a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things.  Nothing to see here, folks.

It was a much happier situation in gold, as the Commercial net short position declined by 8,520 contracts...or 852,000 ounces worth.  The Commercial net short position in gold is now down to 19.17 million ounces.

Neither Ted Butler nor myself were sure if Tuesday's post-Comex close trading data was in this report or not.  Providing that we don't blast higher in price on Monday or Tuesday, all will be revealed in next Friday's COT report.

But one thing is for sure, with the price and volume activity over the 25-hour price period from 2:15 p.m. on Tuesday afternoon, until 3:30 p.m. on Wednesday...there's been another gigantic decrease in the Commercial net short position in both gold and silver.  It won't be back to it's late-December lows but, under the circumstances, it will be as close to a total clean out as we'll probably get...fingers crossed!

Here are a couple of charts that are courtesy of reader Phil Barlett that require no embellishment from me, as a few second of study will reveal all.

The first is titled "20 Years - Food, Fuel, Metals Price Indexes"...and the second is the "Real Home Price Index"

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

Reader Scott Pluschau had a few things to say about copper once again. In his first e-mail early yesterday morning he said that..."Copper is knocking on the door again... the strength here may be what has kept silver from plunging off the head and shoulders.  I definitely do not want to see copper get rejected off resistance or have a failed breakout, and then fall through support.  That would probably crush silver temporarily."

Then later in the day he sent this..."Copper reversed right at that upper trend line in the coiled spring today.  Probabilities will increase that it blasts through on the next visit...  Let's hope it visits the upper trend line before the lower one..."

The link to Scott's blog on copper is here...and the charts are definitely worth looking at.

Being the weekend and all, I have a lot of stories for your reading 'pleasure' over the weekend...and I hope you find some of them of interest.

If prices rise from here, the always looming question is...who are the sellers going to be that take the short side of the technical funds' long position?
Silver Institute predicts strengthening silver investment demand this year. Indian government again raises tax on gold imports to swat people into line. This Is All That Greece Needs!!!

Critical Reads

MF Global Workers Expected to Be Called to Testify Before Congress

MF Global employees at the center of a federal investigation are expected to appear before a Congressional panel this month to shed light on the brokerage firm's misuse of roughly $1 billion in customer money, according to people briefed on the matter.

One notable employee, Edith O'Brien, is expected to invoke her constitutional right against compelled self-incrimination, one of the people said. Ms. O'Brien has also declined to cooperate with federal prosecutors without first receiving immunity from criminal charges.

Ms. O'Brien would be the first MF Global employee to invoke her Fifth Amendment rights before Congress, potentially setting up a standoff with lawmakers.

I still can't figure out why Jon Corzine hasn't done the perp walk for this whole debacle.  Phil Barlett sent me this story from the Thursday edition of The New York Times...and the link is here.

CFTC notices market rigging by high-frequency trading but action doubtful

A top U.S. regulator said his agency plans to widen day-to-day monitoring of the commodities and futures markets, targeting the high-speed trading firms that are a growing force.

Instead of just policing completed futures trades, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will seek to watch the fleeting buy and sell orders that increasingly influence the market, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler said in an interview.

The move follows a Securities and Exchange Commission plan to sharpen oversight of stock trades following the 2010 "flash crash." Regulators are seeking to catch up with high-frequency trading firms that are responsible for roughly half of orders, the vast majority of which are never executed. The SEC is probing the close relationship between high-speed firms and the computerized exchanges they do business with.

The key word is "monitor"...but they'll do nothing to stop it.  If it wasn't for all this HFT, the markets would have collapsed ten years ago.  I found this Wall Street Journal  story posted in the clear in this GATA release yesterday...and the link is here.

More Seniors Using Reverse Mortgages to Raise Cash

Finding themselves financially strapped, more seniors at an earlier age are trying to get reverse mortgages on their homes in order to survive, according to a new report.

The study says the percentage of people aged 62 to 64 applying for reverse mortgages has increased 15 percent since 1999.

The reason for the dramatic upswing among 'younger' seniors is simple, the report concludes: They need the money.

This story, posted over at the CNBC website yesterday, was sent to my by West Virginia reader Elliot Simon...and the link is here.

Meredith Whitney: 'Tidal Wave' of Muni-Bond Defaults Still Coming

A "tidal wave" of defaults in the municipal bond market is still building and will eventually hit the United States, says Wall Street analyst Meredith Whitney.

Many U.S. cities, towns and municipalities are insolvent but are treading along similar to how Greece did for years before officially defaulting.

There's been every effort made on the part of the states to prevent this tidal wave of defaults, which is going to happen sooner or later. It's happening at an accelerating pace." 

This is another offering from Elliot Simon...and it was posted over at the moneynews.com website on Thursday...and the link is here.

Watch Bernanke's 'Little' Inflation Capsize U.S. - Shlaes

A little is all right. That's the message Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has been giving out recently when asked about the evidence of inflation in the U.S. recovery.

Sometimes Bernanke doesn't even go that far. He simply says he doesn't see inflation. The Fed chairman recently described the prospects for price increases across the board as "subdued."

"Sudden" is more like it. The thing about inflation is that it comes out of nowhere and hits you. Monetary policy is like sailing. You're gliding along, passing the peninsula, and you come about. Nothing. Then the wind fills the sail so fast it knocks you into the sea. Right now, the U.S. is a sailboat that has just made open water, and has already come about. That wind is coming. The sailor just doesn't know it.

Another warning that massive inflation will wash over the U.S. in the not-to-distant future.  This op-ed piece showed up posted over at Bloomberg on Thursday...and I thank Bob Fitzwilson for sharing it with us.  The link is here.

John Williams: Inflation Effect : Tough to Ignore or Contain

This short blog was posted over at the King World News website yesterday...and is worth reading.  The link is here.

Hinde Capital's Ben Davies on financial and political repression

The German Internet site Metallwoche this week interviewed Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies, who spoke at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London last August, and the discussion heavily involved "financial repression" -- government market rigging -- and its associated political repression.

I borrowed the headline and the introduction from a GATA release yesterday...and the full text and audio of the interview are posted at the Metallwoche.de website.  The link is here.

Italy Said to Pay Morgan Stanley $3.4 Billion

When Morgan Stanley said in January it had cut its "net exposure" to Italy by $3.4 billion, it didn't tell investors that the nation paid that entire amount to the bank to exit a bet on interest rates.

Italy, the second-most indebted nation in the European Union, paid the money to unwind derivative contracts from the 1990s that had backfired, said a person with direct knowledge of the Treasury's payment. It was cheaper for Italy to cancel the transactions rather than to renew, said the person, who declined to be identified because the terms were private.

The cost, equal to half the amount to be raised by Italy's sales tax increase this year, underscores the risk of derivatives countries use to reduce borrowing costs and guard against swings in interest rates and currencies can sour and generate losses for taxpayers. Italy, with record debt of $2.5 trillion, has lost more than $31 billion on its derivatives at current market values, according to data compiled by the Bloomberg Brief Risk newsletter from regulatory filings.

First it was Goldman Sachs sticking it to Italy...now it's Morgan Stanley.  This Bloomberg story was posted on their website early on Friday morning...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending it along.  The link is here.

This Is All That Greece Needs!!!

Listen up muppet masters - if you have put in a bid for that Greek jewel of Santorini on Ebay, it may be time to quietly withdraw from the auction. Because, according to Georgia Tech, things may get rather shaky soon...literally. "After decades of little activity, a series of earthquakes and deformation began within the Santorini caldera in January of 2011," said Newman, whose research is published by Geophysical Research Letters. "Since then, our instruments on the northern part of the island have moved laterally between five and nine centimeters. The volcano's magma chamber is filling, and we are keeping a close eye on its activity." Because the only thing that Greece, whose primary business is tourism, needs, is for the biggest Cyclades tourist attraction to go up in a pyroclastic cloud.

Earth scientists are used to working with caldera ground deformation in the microradians per day category on the big island of Hawai'i.  5-9 centimeters...2 to 4 inches...is Warp Factor 9 speed in such a short period of time.  The last eruption of Santorini  was thought to have brought the Minonan civilization to an abrupt end about 4,000 years ago.

That Plinian eruption resulted in an estimated 30 to 35 km (19 to 22 mi) high ash plume which extended into the stratosphere. In addition, the magma underlying the volcano came into contact with the shallow marine embayment, resulting in a violent steam eruption.

The eruption also generated a 35 to 150 m (115 to 490 ft) high tsunami that devastated the north coast of Crete, 110 km (68 mi) away. The tsunami had an impact on coastal towns such as Amnisos, where building walls were knocked out of alignmen

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