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Monday, March 19, 2012

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Gold and Silver Stocks Are Decoupling from the Stock Market

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 06:14 PM PDT

Normally, decoupling from the stock market is a good thing. In recent turbulent times, many have wondered if emerging markets would decouple or if gold stocks would decouple. Its surprising to see gold stocks decouple from a strong stock market. Many wondered if the sector would decouple from a weak market. Yet, the decoupling now could be positive long-term provided the decoupling continues when the stock market peaks just below the 2007-2008 highs.


From the Archive: Nelson Bunker Hunt & SILVER

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 06:13 PM PDT

[Ed. Note: Thanks to Zero Hedge for the heads up on this one. Please note the claim from Jeff Stone the CFTC Chairman in 1980, a claim which sounds so satirical in 2012, "The CFTC is here to protect small customers and commercial users of the commodities markets, it is not here to protect large speculators and the brokerage houses that seek their business."]

from EconomicsHack:

"It's a tale involving the Bank of England in a panic that brought the West's financial system within a hair's breadth of a crash like 1929."


Forex, Metals and Stock Market Outlook for the Week Ahead

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 05:59 PM PDT

The markets this week saw lots of movement with rallies in the dollar, equities went to new highs and metals drifted lower throughout last week. With all the optimism in the global economic outlook let’s have a look at what the charts are saying and what next week may hold concerning these markets.


The U.S. Economy: Soul Crushing Total System Failure

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 05:48 PM PDT

from The Economic Collapse Blog:


No matter how often the pretty people on television tell us that the U.S. economy is getting better, it isn't going to change the soul crushing agony that millions of American families are going through right now. The stock market may have gotten back to where it was in 2008, but the job market sure hasn't. As I wrote about a few days ago, the percentage of working age Americans that are actually employed has stayed very flat since late 2009, and the average duration of unemployment is hovering near an all-time high. Sadly, this is not just a temporary downturn. The U.S. economy has been slowly declining for several decades and is nearing total system failure. Right now, many poverty statistics are higher than they have ever been since the Great Depression. Many measurements of government dependence are the highest that we have ever seen in all of U.S. history. The emerging one world economic system (otherwise known as "free trade") has cost the U.S. economy tens of thousands of businesses, millions of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars of our national wealth. The federal government is going into unprecedented amounts of debt in order to try to maintain our current standard of living, but there is no way that they will be able to sustain this kind of borrowing for too much longer. So enjoy this bubble of false prosperity while you can, because things will soon get significantly worse.

Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com


Stock Market New Price Target Almost Reached, Gold Continuing Correction

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 05:45 PM PDT

Current Position of the Market SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle. SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate uptrend is still intact, but a short-term top is forming.


Oligopolies: Too Big To Shrink

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 05:40 PM PDT

by Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls Canada:

As regular readers know, one of the first things learned by beginning economics students is that monopolies and oligopolies are unmitigated evils in any free-market economy. They are (by definition) non-competitive and totally parasitic; and in the rare instances when one of these abominations is perceived to be a necessary evil, that inherently parasitic nature demands that they be securely restrained in a regulatory straitjacket.

Sadly, this appears to also be one of the first lessons forgotten by economics graduates, apparently moments after accepting their degrees. For what do we see in the global economy today? A world which is not only saturated with these mega-monstrosities, but where much, most, and in some cases all regulation has simply been put through a paper-shredder – and all with the complete blessing of the intellectual zombies in the economics community.

After a quarter-century of allowing these corporate oligopolies to rampage out of control, the carnage is plain to see. The worst revenue-crisis in the history of Western democracy threatens to bankrupt most if not all of these economies. Our tax-base continues to wither and die. We see on the one hand Big Business and the ultra-wealthy refusing to be taxed (while parasitically enriching themselves at the fastest rate in history). Meanwhile everyone else simply has nothing left to tax.

Read More @ BullionBullsCanada.com


Triple Lutz Report – Turnkey Totalitarianism is Coming to America – Episode 172

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 05:36 PM PDT

from The Financial Survival Network:

Freedom to pursue your own happiness was guaranteed in the US Constitution. It was a novel ground-breaking earth-shattering ideal that has left statists scrambling ever since. The way they take away your freedoms is one at a time. First they go after freedoms that most people deem unnecessary or repugnant, like using drugs or advertising tabacco. Then they go after the freedoms that matter to you, like speech, the right to defend yourself, buying light bulbs or so many others that are currently under attack. Marijuana prohibitions are supported by law enforcement lobbyists who cash in big time. Just follow the money and you'll see. How much of our law enforcement infrastructure would be turned into surplusage, if the number of prohibitions was dramatically cut back?

And now words comes out that the largest NSA domestic spying center in history is being constructed in a remote part of Utah. As William Binney, former head NSA mathametician and whistleblower said, "We 'this' close to turnkey totalitarianism." Think about that the next time your child asks you about what freedom was like when you were a kid.

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And Whether Pigs Have Wings (part deux)

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 05:30 PM PDT

by Johnny Silver Bear, SilverBearCafe.com:

"The time has come," the Walrus said,
"To talk of many things:
Of shoes – and ships – and sealing-wax -
Of cabbages – and kings -
And why the sea is boiling hot -
And whether pigs have wings."

The Walrus and The Carpenter – Lewis Carroll (from Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There, 1872)

Part 2: "Those Who Would be Kings"

In Part 1, Something Wicked This Way Comes, we discussed the "Dumbing Down of America" and I tried to provide examples of the effectiveness of the campaign. Most do not realize that they fall directly in the cross hairs "of those who would be kings". As I pointed out in a previous essay, Paradise Lost:

"We are not being shepherded by altruistic wise men, but, rather, herded by megalomaniacal desperadoes."

It would be one thing if we had any leadership (which we don't). If we had leaders that actually served their constituencies, and did what they could to insure our safety and well being, and the safety and well being of our children and their children… but we don't. Rather than looking out for our best interests, they are looking out for what they perceive to be their own best interests. They have been corrupted. Corrupted absolutely. Once corrupted, one cannot become uncorrupted. It is too late to save them. They all need to be put down.

Read More @ SilverBearCafe.com


Greg Hunter Interviews Karl Denninger on the EU Debt Crisis and Coming Financial Crash

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 05:21 PM PDT

from USAWatchDog:

http://usawatchdog.com/ – There was plenty going on in the financial news world last week. Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com talks to Karl Denninger of Market-Ticker.com to get some answers. Denninger is no stranger to covering the real financial news the mainstream media (MSM) won't touch. According to his bio, "Mr. Denninger received the 2008 Reed Irvine Accuracy In Media Award for Grassroots Journalism for his coverage of the 2008 market meltdown. In 2011, Wiley published his book "Leverage," detailing the causes of the 2008 financial collapse along with analysis and policy prescriptions for the future."

The world saw another Greek debt deal hammered out where 95% of bondholders voluntarily took a 75% loss. Is the European debt crisis behind us now, or are other financially troubled countries such as Portugal, Spain and Italy going to want the same deal? One tip-off might be the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has also voluntarily stopped its derivative clearing house operation in Europe. CME acted as a clearing house for many kinds of derivatives including credit default swaps (CDS). CDS are basically insurance for things like sovereign debt that turns sour. What reason would the CME have to suddenly stop doing business in Europe? CME's slogan is ". . . where the world comes to manage risk." Maybe the company is managing a little risk of its own? There was, also, big market moving news on the results of bank stress tests done by the Federal Reserve. Are they really good tests or more of a PR ploy? Is the economy stronger today than before the 2008 meltdown?

Denninger thinks the EU debt crisis is far from over, real estate still has a lot further to drop and America is heading for another financial crash "before the end of the year."

Video interviews with newsmakers and experts are going to be a new segment featured on USAWatchdog.com. We had some technical problems with the video on our side during the recording, but the audio was so good, we thought you needed to hear it. The site is a work in progress, and we are constantly working to improve. Please enjoy the interview from USAWatchdog.com.


In The News Today

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 05:19 PM PDT

by Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com:

Dear CIGAs,

Happy St. Patrick's Day weekend!

My Dear Friends,

Major Iranian banks have been deleted from the SWIFT system. This is the means of bank wire fund transfers.

This is a major act of economic war against Iran that challenges others to consider similar tactics. It might be reasonable if Iran had not just had large allies restate their allegiance in the form of China and Russia. This would be reasonable if the West had no economic points of vulnerability.

Unfortunately the Western financial system has real weak points that are in the hands of Iran's new most powerful allies.

The US dollar utilization as a settlement currency is waning. The US bond market has already lost its main buyers who in China's case have been sellers.
The Swift System war card would have better been held as a threat than used.

This is going to come home, and hurt after June 2012.

Regards,
Jim

Original Source @ JSMineset.com


U.S. may sanction India over its Iran oil imports

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 02:33 PM PDT

By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan and Pratish Narayanan
Bloomberg News
Thursday, March 15, 2012

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/u-s-may-sanction-india-over-lev...

India has failed to reduce its purchases of Iranian oil, and if it doesn't do so, President Barack Obama may be forced to impose sanctions on one of Asia's most important nations, Obama administration officials said yesterday.

A decision to levy penalties under a new U.S. law restricting payments for Iranian oil could come as early as June 28, according to several U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

"Given the level of trade, and in particular oil, between Iran and India, targeting an Indian entity that facilitates Iran's access to the international financial market should be top of mind for the U.S. Treasury," Avi Jorisch, a former Treasury Department official who is now a Washington-based consultant on deterring illicit finance, said in an interview.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Prophecy Platinum (TSXV: NKL) and Ursa Major Minerals
Sign Combination Agreement

Company Press Release
Friday, March 2, 2012

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) and Ursa Major Minerals Inc. have signed a binding letter of agreement for a business combination through a proposed all-share transaction. In doing so Prophecy and Ursa have acted at arm's length and the transaction has been negotiated at arm's length.

Prophecy will issue one common share in exchange for every 25 outstanding common shares of Ursa. Ursa options and warrants will be exchanged for options and warrants of Prophecy on an agreed schedule.

Prophecy's offer represents a value of about $0.15 per each common share of Ursa based on Prophecy's share price of $3.70 as at March 1, representing a premium of 130 percent to Ursa's March 1 closing price of $0.065.

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For the complete announcement, please visit Prophecy Platinum's Internet site here:

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The U.S. law, which targets oil payments made through Iran's central bank, applies to any country that doesn't make a "significant" reduction in its Iranian crude oil purchases during the first half of this year. If India fails to cut Iranian imports sufficiently, Obama may be compelled to bar access to the U.S. banking system for any Indian bank processing oil payments through Iran's central bank, the U.S. officials said.

While India hasn't asked its refiners to stop purchasing Iranian crude, the government has told processors in the South Asian nation to seek alternate supplies and gradually reduce their dependence on the Persian Gulf state due to increasing pressure from the U.S. in recent weeks, three Indian officials with direct knowledge of the situation said today.

India hasn't significantly cut imports this year because refiners' annual crude term deals with Iran typically run from April to March, they said. The planned reductions will start only when new annual contracts begin next month, the Indian officials said, declining to be identified because they aren't authorized to speak to the media.

India bought an average of 328,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude in the first six months of last year, making it the No. 3 buyer, behind China and Japan and ahead of South Korea, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Iran is the No. 2 producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The U.S. government may not be aware that India's biggest buyer of Iranian oil, state-owned Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. (MRPL), plans to import less from Iran starting next month, according to two officials with direct knowledge of the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak.

Oil Minister S. Jaipal Reddy, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, and Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai have said India will continue to buy Iranian oil to meet its growing energy needs. While the Indian government has an excellent record of enforcing United Nations sanctions on Iran, India has objected to unilateral U.S. sanctions, according to U.S. officials.

"We abide scrupulously by UN-authorized sanctions," Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Syed Akbaruddin said in a telephone interview. While restrictions imposed by individual countries "have an impact on commercial interactions, from a legal perspective there is nothing that binds us to follow them."

The latest shipping data shows India and South Korea sharply increased oil purchases from Iran in January, according to a report released yesterday by the International Energy Agency in Paris. China halved its imports from Iran, from 550,000 barrels a day in December to 275,000 barrels a day in January, following a dispute over pricing terms that has now been resolved, the report said.

The new U.S. law targeting Iranian petroleum transactions doesn't specify by what percentage a nation must reduce its Iranian oil imports to qualify for an exemption from sanctions. U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they are looking for cuts of around 15 percent in volume, though they might consider whether buyers have extracted significant price discounts, thereby depriving Iran of revenue.

Mangalore Refinery may cut its contract to 6 million metric tons, or 120,000 barrels a day, in the year ending March 2013, which would be a 15 percent cut from the previous year, one of the people with knowledge of the planned reductions said.

The U.S. has offered India help in brokering deals with alternative suppliers including Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which has offered to replace any shortfall, according to U.S.
and Indian officials.

Envoys from the White House, the State Department, the Treasury Department, and the U.S. Embassy in India have had numerous conversations with Indian counterparts since Congress began debating the sanctions measure that Obama signed into law Dec. 31.

Nancy Powell, the Obama administration's ambassador-designate to India, testified before Congress last month that if confirmed, she would be "spending a great deal of time" working with India on Iran sanctions issues. She quoted Mathai, who came to Washington for meetings last month, as saying India is working to diversify its sources of petroleum and reduce its dependence on Iran to no more than 10 percent of its total oil imports.

"That would be a very good sign," Powell said.

U.S. and European Union sanctions are already disrupting Iranian crude shipments to global refiners, contributing to a 16 percent advance in London-traded Brent this year. Brent oil for April settlement fell $1.25, or 1 percent, to end the session at $124.97 yesterday on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The EU decided two months ago to embargo Iranian oil imports effective July 1. Last year, the 27-member EU was collectively the No. 2 importer of Iranian oil, taking 18 percent of Iran's crude exports. Faced with a shrinking pool of buyers, Iran last month offered India additional crude supplies on revised terms.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has criticized sanctions on Iranian oil. China's crude imports from Iran hit their lowest level in five months in January, customs data show, as the country's biggest buyer, China International United Petroleum & Chemical Co., known as Unipec, delayed signing a new contract because of a dispute over payment terms. Unipec cut its 2012 term contract purchases by 15 percent from 2011, though the payment dispute has since been resolved.

For their part, Japan and South Korea are seeking exemptions from the new U.S. sanctions. If both nations can demonstrate a significant reduction in their purchases by the end of June, their banks would escape penalties, according to two U.S. officials involved in the talks.

Japan is seeking to reduce its crude purchases from Iran by at least 11 percent, according to a Japanese government official interviewed Feb. 21. The three largest Japanese buyers of Iranian crude are Showa Shell Sekiyu KK, JX Nippon Oil & Energy Corp., and Cosmo Oil Co.

The South Korean government has said it will make a decision on cutting Iranian crude imports by the end of June. South Korean officials denied reports saying they had already proposed cutting imports by 15 percent to 20 percent.

The White House doesn't want to punish Japan, South Korea, or India, critical U.S. partners in trade and security and important regional counterweights to the rise of China, U.S. officials said. Still, the president has limited leeway to grant exemptions under the law, and so far India hasn't demonstrated reductions, they said.

Mark Dubowitz, the executive director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington and an adviser to the administration on sanctions, said India shouldn't assume it will avoid sanctions unless its refiners demonstrably reduce imports over the next three months.

There's no reason "why India should be given a free pass as the EU, Japan, and others significantly reduce the scale and scope of their Iranian trade," he said in an interview. "No country should be confident that it will not be the target of U.S. sanctions."

Other analysts said Indian officials have responded to U.S. pressure by quietly pressing state-run refiners to switch to alternative sources, and they expect the U.S. to reach an accommodation with the world's most populous democracy.

"It's highly unlikely that the U.S. would sanction India on this issue. The Iran issue is an irritant at best," Harsh V. Pant, a specialist on India and Iran at King's College London, said in a telephone interview.

The Iranian central bank sanctions that Obama signed into law Dec. 31 are part of a larger effort to deprive the Persian Gulf country of its leading source of revenue and complicate Iran's commercial ties with the outside world. The U.S. and the EU have piled on new sanctions since November in an effort to pressure Iran to abandon any work it may be conducting to acquire a nuclear weapons capability. Iran insists that its nuclear program is strictly for civilian energy and medical research.

* * *

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Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



Listen To What Central Banks Do, Not What They Say

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 01:07 PM PDT

A sharp fall in gold prices has triggered large purchases of bullion by central banks in recent weeks, according to several traders with knowledge of the transactions..."Central banks have definitely been looking at gold as an asset class much more closely ever since European central banks stopped selling," a senior gold banker said. "There has been a huge interest."

The quote is from the Financial Times: LINK

Hmmmm.  Recall, recently that Congressman Ron Paul asked Ben Bernanke - who was under oath and on camera - why Central Banks still hold any gold if it was irrelevant as a currency.  Bernanke's response was that he didn't know but maybe out of "tradition."  That answer shocked me because it was so absurdly mindless - I was wondering if Bernanke had a full frontal lobotomy.  Paul also asked Bernanke if he thought gold was "money" and Bernanke said "no."  Here's the clip and it's worth watching, as it's the first time I've seen Ron Paul really hold Bernanke's feet in the fire on any issue:  LINK

The scramble behind the scenes for taking delivery is going on and it's a real threat to the banking and political elitists.  It was easy for Hugo Chavez to repatriate Venezuela's 200 tonnes from NYC and London.  And don't lose sight of the fact that China takes delivery of all of the gold it buys into a shiny new warehouse depository in Hong Kong.  But it will be interesting to see what happens if Switzerland and/or Germany make a serious move to repatriate because then you're talking about thousands of tonnes that may have already been leased out and sitting in vaults in Hong Kong, India and other depositories not controlled by the Fed, Bank of England or the big bullion banks (JPM, HSBC, Scotia, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, UBS).  I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of lobbying going on behind the scenes to try and quash the incipient movements for this going on the German and Swiss legislatures because if either Germany or Switzerland wants its gold and can't get it, things could get really ugly.



Is Gold Getting a Tad Seductive at Recent Levels?

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 11:18 AM PDT

The consolidation in the Gold price has sure gotten our attention of late. Perhaps this latest sell-off in Gold should also grab the attention those underinvested or late to the game that have been waiting for better entry points. Read More...



Guest Post: Who Is Really Paying The $25 Billion TBTF Mortgage Settlement

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 10:29 AM PDT

Submitted by David Schawel of EconomicMusings.com

Who Is Really Paying The $25 Billion TBTF Mortgage Settlement

The surprising tale that I will attempt to pen in this blog entry has a very familiar cast of characters; the Obama Administration, the Housing Bubble, "Toxic Mortgages", and Too Big To Fail "TBTF" Banks among others.  While the headline of TBTF banks in a $25bil mortgage settlement is known to many, the underlying details of the settlement are less known and quite appalling when you pull back the covers.

The wounds on past and present homeowners are still fresh from the housing crisis.  As Jonathan Laing points out in this weekend's Barron's cover story, "five million of the country's 76million mortgage holders have lost their homes to foreclosure or lender ordered short sales since 2006, and an estimated 14million more own more on their homes than their properties are currently worth.  In all, some $7.4 trillion in homeowners' equity has been destroyed according to Mark Zandi..." 

Cries for Accountability

While blame deserves to be cast upon numerous parties for the housing bubble, Americans have rightly called for accountability on the TBTF banks.  Accountability for what? Among other faults, robo-signing became prevalent among TBTF banks as they forged mortgage documents in order to ensure proper paperwork was done to foreclose on properties.

Details of the $25bil Settlement (in the words of HUD) & Public Lauding

"On February 9, the Department of Justice, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, other federal agencies, and 49 state attorneys general announced the largest federal and state settlement agreement in history with the five major mortgage servicers for their mortgage servicing practices. The agreement has the potential to help nearly two million American homeowners through a variety of means, including loss mitigation tools such as principal reduction and refinancing of loans for borrowers who owe more on their house than it is worth ("underwater" homeowners), payments of billions of dollars to federal and state parties, and payments directly to individuals who lost their homes to foreclosure and meet certain other criteria." The public seemed to buy right into this news.  After all, $25bil being paid by the bank sounds pretty tough right? Upon news of the $25bil Mortgage settlement many media members gushed over President Obama's "accountability" of these banks.  President Obama said himself that it was about "standing up for the American people" and "holding those who broke the law accountable."

What's the Truth?

Only $5bil of the $25bil is actual cash being paid out by the banks.  The banks earn "credits" for the remaining $20bil by modifying either loans that they own on their own books or securitized private label MBS that they service. Which will they choose to modify?  Alison Frankel described the incentives last week in this article, "Banks receive a $1 credit for every dollar of principal they reduce in a loan they own outright. They earn a 45 cent credit for every dollar written down on a securitized loan. That incentive, in combination with the strictures of the pooling and servicing agreements with investors, was intended to limit the number of securitized mortgages the banks would modify."  The major question you should be asking yourself, and the overall premise of this article, is why are non-agency mortgage investors who did no harm being asked to foot the bill for the sins of the TBTF robo-signers?  If you were a bank holding a loan at par, would you rather modify a given loan and take a dollar for dollar capital hit to get a credit towards the $20bil bogey, or modify twice as much of a MBS holders loan that you service (taking no capital hit yourself) and get the same credit?  As former SIGTARP Neil Barofsky tells Bloomberg, "this would be comical if it wasn't so tragic".

Massive 1st Lien vs 2nd Lien Conflict of Interest-  It isn't even as simple as an "all else equal" decision for banks. Frankel continued to hit the nail on the head "Most securitized mortgages, remember, are first-lien loans. The vast majority of second-lien loans, by contrast, are bank-owned. When banks reduce the principal in a first-lien mortgage, they improve their own prospects as a second-lien holder....The Association of Mortgage Investors highlighted the conflict between first and second lien owners in a statement issued immediately after the settlement documents were released. "The settlement is expected to also draw billions of dollars from those not a party to the settlement (because) it places first and second lien priority in conflict with its original construct," the AMI press release said. "It is unfair to settle claims against the robosigners with other people's funds." 

Curious Responses By HUD, Frustration for Main Street Investors

-On a mid-February conference call, the HUD's secretary Sean Donovan reportedly promised the MBS bondholders on the call that a maximum of 15% of modified loans by the five banks could be on securitized loans.  Others were under the impression that the final settlement would have this 15% cap in writing.  Needless to say, when the final report was released, there was no sign of any limit.  "If we've missed (documentation of the 15 percent cap), please Secretary Donovan, let us know where it is," said Vincent Fiorillo, a portfolio manager at DoubleLine Capital and president of the board of the Association of Mortgage Investors.

-Just this past week, and presumably in response to heat they are feeling, the HUD put out a "Myth vs Fact" blog post on the HUD website. A few curious statements are written within the modifications within securitized trusts section including:

"...principal write down modifications must be NPV positive...".  If these loans are NPV positive, shouldn't they have been modified already?

"...Fourth, 2nd liens are written down according to HAMP 2MP. Fifth, 2nd liens greater than 180 days delinquent are extinguished." 

Why is it even a question of whether 1st liens or 2nd liens should be extinguished first?  Further, there are ways for banks to avoid having 180 day delinquent loans in second liens. They can either change the amortization to negative-am or simply advance to make them current.

-The AMI, Association for Mortgage Investors, reportedly reached out to numerous Attorney Generals with no success.  It's easy to see the frustrations of this organization which represents pension funds, mutual funds common in 401k plans etc...As they write on their website, "AMI supports long-term, effective, sustainable solutions to the housing foreclosure crisis. It is generally supportive of a settlement if it ensures that responsible borrowers are treated fairly throughout the foreclosure process; while at the same time providing clarity as to investor rights and servicer responsibilities. The ultimate settlement should ensure that our clients, who were not involved in the alleged activities and, who likewise were not a participant in any negotiations, do not bear the cost of the settlement. Specifically, mortgage servicers, if at all, should only receive limited, reasonable credit for modifying mortgages held by third parties, which are often pension plans, 401K plans, endowments and "Main Street" mutual funds. To do otherwise, will damage the RMBS markets further and limit the ability of average Americans to obtain credit for homes for generations to come."  I'd have to take the side of AMI here as it appears that they are willing to work with the AG's, HUD, and the White House to find the best solution possible.

Detrimental to Resumption of Private-Label Mortgage Finance?

The irony of this whole debacle might be that the AG's and Obama Administration could be missing "the forest for the trees".  With private-label mortgage investors potentially bearing the costs of this settlement, could this shake the confidence of a resumption of private label origination?  The GSE's have been under fire and continuous cries have been heard for the eventual wind down, if not at least a reduction of the reliance upon them  A healthy private MBS market would be essential to any move away from nearly complete reliance on the GSE's.  Placing the costs of the settlement on the very investors who are an integral part of the private label MBS market is NOT a way to instill confidence.

Summary

It's hard to believe that such decisions are being made on such a hot button issue.  I suppose the general public sees the $25bil stick and assumes the Banks are being appropriately punished.  In reality it is quite the scam.  The Attorney Generals and White House look like they are dropping the hammer on evil Wall Street TBTF banks while simultaneously sticking up for the average American borrower.  The banks pretend they're paying the price for past sins (with the money of the victims, the investors).


Got Gold Report – Marginal Metal Exodus

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 10:22 AM PDT

  • Brief thoughts on some of the markets that we track and trade with a particular focus on the issues we call The Little Guys as wealth leaves gold and silver at the margin to chase the Big Markets – for now, but likely not for much longer.

HOUSTON (Got Gold Report) – On the one hand we note India doubling the gold tax from 2% to 4%, leaving silver as-is; wealth flooding out of bonds and precious metals to chase an already extended U.S. stock market; tightening sanctions on Iran, cutting off her access to the SWIFT banking system; local gold and silver dealers heavy with inventory, gold and silver premiums low and some discounts showing (a contrary bullish signal).

On the other hand we cannot forget enormous LTRO liquidity, Bank of England QE, Bank of Japan QE, Fed to ECB dollars for euros swaps liquidity, massive, unprecedented balance sheet expansion and forced liquidity into the system by the Federal Reserve ... with a Fed "Twist" (Operation Twist by the Fed) if we want to cite a "kicker." Oh, and let us keep in reserve that central banks are net buyers of gold now for some (very obvious) reason.

With economic news of the day here in the U.S. improving, and all that titanic pump priming by the heavy debtor western world's central banks ... um, in an election year for many countries, can we be all that surprised to see levitating U.S. equity markets and at least the illusion that "things are getting better?" (Cue the democratic party theme song, please, "Happy Days are Here Again.") 

20120318-SnP500-Graph1When we consider the sheer size of the monetary easing measures the central planners have had to throw at the 2008- 2012 crisis of confidence in order to stave off deflation – in order to keep the band playing a while longer on this giant, listing unseaworthy ship of debt (let's call it the "SS Keynes" just for form); when we consider that inflation in its most basic form is a monetary phenomenon, literally

the creation of too much money and credit, with the symptoms of inflation, price and wage 'inflation' always ... ALWAYS ... lagging its monetary roots; when we consider that never before in the history of mankind has so much borrowed money been protected by central bankers and governments creating oceans of new fiat currency out of the thinnest of thin air and mountains of new debt to service the old ... can the more visible kind of inflation and the world's focus upon that insidious demon be far behind?

Witness the world apparently 'buying' Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's line that the Fed only wants to create "a little inflation," not a terrifying amount of it. (Like saying the Fed only wants a little theft not full scale, very noticeable robbery.) More importantly, the world seems to be accepting hook, line and sinker the Fed's contention that it can rein in high price and wage inflation via Fed policy; via bond market manipulation (and don't laugh) "if necessary."

So, is it surprising to see wealth leaving precious metals at the margin right now? Is it surprising that people are selling some of their gold and silver to put that money to work in the rising equity markets right now? 

20120318-10YrNote-Graph2No, it's not really surprising. Not with an election year "sleight of hand job," it isn't. People love to chase a rising market. Will it last? Will the 'good times' just pick up where they left off in 2006? Who knows, it is possible, but man oh man are the stakes high and rising for all kinds of unintended consequences just ahead. That, and we have to keep reminding ourselves that this is the very same Fed

that pronounced the U.S. housing market sound (no bubble) in 2007 and utterly failed to see or prepare for the 2008 excessive debt/leverage financial crisis ahead of time.

Forgive us if we, and many like us, are not comforted by the Federal Reserve's utmost confidence they will be able to keep price and wage inflation in check once it is allowed to take hold. Call us fairly skeptical of it in fact.

Bond Break

That thundering cracking sound you hear is the U.S. bond market breaking lower out of a wide topping formation. It's either the real deal major reversal of the 25-year-plus bond bull market or a warning shot of it. With all the liquidity sloshing around in the world's financial engine a bond market reversal is but one sign that the effects of monetary inflation are starting to show.

Rising interest rates could just mean that things are getting back to 'normal,' right? Wealth moving out of bonds and into stocks is a good sign, isn't it? Isn't this just exactly what the Fed wanted, rising asset, commodity and equity prices to rekindle confidence?

Well, yes, and we said we thought this would occur, but does anyone reading this really believe that the Fed only wants or will only get "a little inflation?" Really?

No Major ETF Exodus, a 'Tell'

Maybe that's why in this current metals sell-down there have been little in the way of metal inventory reductions in the world's precious metal ETFs. Wealth is exiting the metals, that's true, but so far, not like it "means it." We can state categorically that if there was a major exodus of capital from precious metals – if the world suddenly regained more confidence in fiat currencies and less confidence in gold – we would be seeing negative liquidity in spades. We would be seeing large and consistent reductions in the amount of metal being held by the world's big metals ETFs. Does this next chart look like an exodus of wealth from the largest gold ETF is currently underway? 

20120318-GLD-Graph3

SPDR Gold Shares metal holdings, at 1,293.27 tonnes of gold remain within two percent of the all time record of about 1,320 tonnes set in June, 2010. That's hardly evidence of a large exodus of capital from gold metal; to the contrary.

Local Dealers Heavy Inventory - Bullish

People are also selling some of their accumulated gold and silver to dealers at present. Local dealers report heavy inventories of most small gold and silver products and some are actively looking for capital. (We sometimes provide liquidity for a few local dealers, holding gold and silver collateral. When their inventories are bulging and premiums are low that condition is very often a contrary bullish signal short term.)

When dealers are discounting metal to each other it is a sign that The Street is doing more selling than buying. When small, thinly capitalized dealers are actively looking for capital it means they have tapped their bank or brother-in-law credit lines to take on more inventory because The Street has been selling a bit more aggressively. They are willing to increase debt because the game becomes more profitable when they can buy from the public at larger discounts.

The Little Guys Forgotten – for Now

Nowhere is the exodus of capital from the metals and metals related stocks felt more strongly in than in the smaller, less liquid and more speculative issues – the ones we happen to enjoy gaming here at Got Gold Report. We call them "The Little Guys" and that is what we will take a brief look at in a moment. 

20120318-HUI-Graph4The Little Guys are taking their cues from the larger, better heeled 'majors' like the ones that populate the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (left). Interestingly, by some measures the smaller mining shares are outperforming their larger cousins, as we will cover in a moment. That is not a long-term bearish sign, by the way.

A quick glance at the HUI shows that it is quite literally at implied support in a typically bullish Falling Wedge pattern. At Support also means there is little room for "error" now and a breakdown of the wedge could easily show just ahead.

Vulture members look for much, much more in our linked technical charts located on the subscriber pages. 

 

To continue reading, please log in or click here to subscribe to a Got Gold Report Membership.


FT notices 'financial repression' again but still doesn't question central bankers about it

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 09:47 AM PDT

Maybe in another 10 or 20 years news organizations like the Financial Times will try to interview central bankers about the specific mechanisms of "financial represssion," including intervention in the gold market.

* * *

Financial Repression Fast Becoming a Reality

By Tony Jackson
Financial Times, London
Sunday, March 18, 2012

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/161d7bce-6f62-11e1-9c57-00144feab49a.html

The concept of financial repression has been on the edge of investors' minds for a while. It ought to move to the centre, for it is becoming a reality.

In essence, the process involves governments using their muscle to force down the real value of their debt. It can take many forms, but they boil down to two.

First, governments push down real interest rates, with or without the help of rising inflation. Second, they oblige domestic institutions such as banks or pension funds to soak up government debt at those lower rates.

To see this starting to happen, consider the UK -- not because it is unique, but because it illustrates both parts of the phenomenon. Take interest rates first.

... Dispatch continues below ...


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Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



At present 10-year UK gilts yield 2.4 per cent, some way below retail price inflation of 3.9 per cent. It is always possible that inflation will fall. But it is worth recalling that the average UK rate over the past decade has been over 3 per cent.

Negative real interest rates are an important feature of repression. While it is not strictly essential for rates to be negative -- they need only be lower than a country's growth rate -- it speeds the process along.

The US scholars Carmen Reinhart and Belen Sbrancia have calculated that in the period 1945-80 -- when governments were liquidating the debts built up in the Second World War -- real yields on Treasury bills in the advanced economies averaged minus 1.6 per cent.

There are, of course, various reasons for UK gilt yields being negative at present. But a big one is quantitative easing, whereby the government has forced yields down by buying up almost a third of the total gilt stock.

Again, there are various good reasons for this policy. But one characteristic of financial repression, as Reinhart and Sbrancia put it, is "a pervasive lack of transparency."

That is, it tends to be a covert byproduct of measures which are otherwise benign. If it could be done overtly, after all, governments could simply raise taxes or slash spending and have done with it.

There are occasional exceptions, such as the US government's conversion of short-term debt in 1951 into 29-year unmarketable bonds. But that episode is instructive, since another key to repression is to push the maturity of debt further out.

Last week's news of UK government plans to issue gilts with maturities of 100 years or more is therefore relevant. No one will be obliged to buy them, but they will give the government more elbow room in the matter of inflation.

Inflation does not aid repression if a government has to borrow in the near future -- that is, if inflation is already in the price. But the average maturity of UK gilts is an unusually long 14.5 years.

So come the day that the UK's finances are back in primary balance, the inflationary door will be wide open. From a policy standpoint, not to take advantage of that might seem positively remiss.

So to the second part of the process -- the dragooning of financial institutions. The most obvious element of this is regulatory pressure on the banks to buy sovereign debt.

Again, note the ostensibly benign purpose. It is of course sensible to make banks hold low-risk liquid assets. But the fact that many sovereign bonds are neither of those things is a clue to the wider agenda.

Next, the pension funds. I wrote recently about how the UK government is pushing local authority pension funds to invest in infrastructure -- that is, to divert funds to projects the central government might otherwise have to pay for.

A starker illustration is the pension fund of the Royal Mail. It is now confirmed that as soon as permission is secured from the European Commission -- expected by the end of this month -- the UK government will take over the fund's L28 billion of assets and L32 billion of liabilities.

The assets will then be sold to pay down government debt. There is apparently some debate over whether the proceeds should go on infrastructure -- that is, capital projects -- or current spending. But after a year or two, who will know the difference?

The liabilities, meanwhile, will vanish off the government's balance sheet. That is, no doubt, fiscally imprudent. But as the pensions consultant John Ralfe points out, it makes little practical difference, since the central government stands behind the Royal Mail and local authority pension funds already.

What are the nation's savers to do about all this? Beyond steering clear of gilts at any price, not a lot.

Ultimately, the only question about debt is who pays for it -- the borrower or the lender. This way, governments hope, that reality will pass unnoticed.

* * *

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Prophecy Platinum (TSXV: NKL) and Ursa Major Minerals
Sign Combination Agreement

Company Press Release
Friday, March 2, 2012

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) and Ursa Major Minerals Inc. have signed a binding letter of agreement for a business combination through a proposed all-share transaction. In doing so Prophecy and Ursa have acted at arm's length and the transaction has been negotiated at arm's length.

Prophecy will issue one common share in exchange for every 25 outstanding common shares of Ursa. Ursa options and warrants will be exchanged for options and warrants of Prophecy on an agreed schedule.

Prophecy's offer represents a value of about $0.15 per each common share of Ursa based on Prophecy's share price of $3.70 as at March 1, representing a premium of 130 percent to Ursa's March 1 closing price of $0.065.

Prophecy is to subscribe for $1 million common shares of Ursa by way of private placement financing at $0.06 per share, subject to regulatory approval. Upon placement completion, John Lee and Greg Hall, current Prophecy directors, will be appointed to Ursa's board.

Prophecy thus will become a mid-tier resource company with a robust and
diversified pipeline of platinum nickel projects, including:

-- The fully permitted open-pit Shakespeare PGM-Ni-Cu mine close to Sudbury, Ontario, infrastructure with near-term production capabilities.

-- The flagship Wellgreen (Yukon) PGM-Ni-Cu project with more than 10 million ounces of Pt-Pd-Au inferred resource. Drilling is under way and a preliminary economic assessment study is pending.

-- Manitoba's Lynn Lake Ni-Cu project with more than 262 million pounds Ni and 138 million pounds Cu measured and indicated.

For the complete announcement, please visit Prophecy Platinum's Internet site here:

http://www.prophecyplat.com/news_2012_mar02_prophecy_platinum_ursa_major...



Goldman's God Problem on Executive Pay

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 09:29 AM PDT

By EconMatters

In addition to suffering a one-day $2 billion loss in market value on March 12 bestowed upon by the Goldman Letter at New York Times on March 12 , Goldman also has to deal with God problem regarding executive compensation packages as well.

 

According to Reuters, in the past two years, a group of religious institutions that hold Goldman shares, including the Sisters of St. Francis of Philadelphia, has been successful in getting its proposal requiring Goldman to conduct an independent examination of whether Goldman's executive pay levels were appropriate taken into regular shareholders' meetings.

 

However, this year, for the first time, the U.S. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) sided with Goldman, which argued it had already complied with the request. The SEC's letter of rejection came out just one day after Gregg Smith's Goldman Letter appeared on the Times.

 

From Reuters,

The SEC sided with Goldman this year because it felt the company had "substantially implemented" the proposal, an SEC spokesman said. "If the company's actions effectively moot the proposal, then we permit exclusion."

In its January 11 letter to the SEC, Goldman described a number of processes that the firm has in place that it says address the religious group's concerns.

For example, the company has an independent committee that reviews executive compensation packages, and it discloses the compensation principles in proxy reports to shareholders, according to the letter.

While it is true that many Wall Street big banks, including Goldman, had to endure pay cuts after the financial crisis partly in response to backlashes stemming form lavish paydays on its executives.  Nonetheless, since the paycut has lofty starting point to begin with, the current average pay is still much higher above the national norm,

 

For example, The average Goldman employee took home roughly $365,000 last year.  Although that's already down 15% from $430,000 in 2010, it is still 539% of $67,690--the national annual average salary of "Business and Financial Operations Occupations" as of May 2010, the most recent data from Bureau of Labor Statistics.  That's hard to justify even after taking into account of the variables such as an ivy league degree, Quant wizard, etc.

 

In terms of executive compensation, Lloyd C. Blankfein, the chief executive of Goldman, earned $19 million in 2010 — roughly $5.4 million in cash, restricted stock valued at $12.6 million and other compensation.  Before the near collapse of Wall Street in 2008, Blankfein made $68.5 million in 2007.

 

This year, Blankfein was granted $7 million in restricted stock, according to a regulatory filing last month, other forms of compensation like cash bonus have not been disclosed yet.  The same $7 million award is also extended to Gary D. Cohn, the president, and David A. Viniar, the chief financial officer. The value is based on the company's stock price as of Feb. 1.

 

Gregg Smith, who was merely one of 12,000 company vice-presidents, a low ranking employee, according to Goldman, was supposedly earning "no more than $750,000".

 

While it is refreshing to see SEC taking a contrarian view after Gregg Smith's Goldman exit letter, it looks like the government's regulatory sensors may have been blunted partly by the record $550 Million Goldman's settlement to SEC in 2010 on fraud charges related to Subprime Mortgage CDO, and possibly by the powerful Goldman revolving door between Goldman alumni and the U.S. Government.

 

Nevertheless, as Reuters quoted Charles Elson, director of the Weinberg Center for corporate governance at the University of Delaware,

"It's a [Goldman's] victory in a sense that it's kept off the proxy this year, but it doesn't make the issue go away." 

Wall Street pay has garnered a lot of attention since the financial crisis, and the pressure for more transparency and review is unlikely to relent, SEC's opinion notwithstanding.

 

Further Reading - Greed Is Indeed Good at Goldman?

 

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | Post Alert | Kindle


Hunt Brothers Silver

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 08:24 AM PDT


From The Archives - Bunker Hunt And 'Silver Thursday'

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 08:17 AM PDT

Back in May of last year, just after the now historic silver slamdown of "Silver Sunday" on May 1, 2011, when the metal imploded by nearly 20% in the span of seconds, a move that some considered 'normal', primarily the CFTC, we presented the extended biopic of the infamous "Silverfinger": Bunker Hunt, who attempted to corner the silver market, and succeeded, if only briefly (and they say Playboy has no good articles). Today, courtesy of Grant Williams, we have dredged up the following clip from the archives, which is a 10 minute overview of just how there is really nothing new ever in the silver market, bringing up memories of Silver Thursday, March 27, 1980, and raising questions whether last year the move in precious metals was not due to the same attempt to corner the silver and gold markets as happened 30 years prior. A far more important question perhaps is how was it that tried a redux of the Hunt brothers (and Warren Buffett of course), and when will someone take their place next?

And for those who may not have seen it the first time around, here is a repost of our original article from April 2010, "A Deep Insider's Walkthru To Silver Market Manipulation"

A second whistleblower speaks. As the topic of physical delivery has gained prominent attention recently, it is crucial to complete  the circle and show how this weakest link in the PM market is (ab)used by the big boys: Phibro and Warren Buffet. Pay particular attention to the analogues between the methods employed in the 90's commodity market and how the PM (and equity) market is being gamed currently. And to think that each new generation of traders believes it has discovered something new... (All emphasis below is ours)

 


Background

  • As a market maker in silver options from 1989 to 2000 I was present during both the 1994 and 1997 silver events. They were seminal in my education of gamesmanship in trading and how probabilities can come up short.
  • Prior to going out on my own, I traded at a small market making firm. When a trader finished training there, he had top-tier options knowledge but was not educated in whom the players were, the fundamentals of the markets, and how probabilities were useless when information was asymmetric. That wasn't their business, they taught option's theory. Since I had drunk the kool-aid, I thought fundamentals and gamesmanship were useless in the face of the almighty Standard Deviation model. That was a mistake. 

Phibro Early Exercise

  • In April 1994, the Thursday before Easter, the trading day ended with a rather unusual run up of 15 cents near the close to finish at 435ish around noon. Options expired that day at 4pm but we weren't anywhere near the closest strikes (425 and 450) so most of us left. It was a 4 day weekend in the U.S. but silver traded globally, albeit il-liquidly in Asia. Comex wouldn't open until next Tuesday. My education in gamesmanship started that afternoon at JFK airport as I was waiting for a flight, my first vacation in 5 years.
  • My backer paged me at the airport to inform me that someone was exercising the K 450 calls. I scoffed thinking it was a retail sap that was talked into exercising some 5 lot piece by an overzealous broker. "Great I said, let them, the options are out of the money."  And I hung up
  • 10 minutes later he had me paged again. "You don't understand, it's Phibro exercising." Again I naively said, "So what, they are energy guys." But I was curious, "How many? " I asked. "All of them, five thousand, he replied. Now I was really curious, but still woefully ignorant that it was I who was the sap at the table. "Why would they do that?" and he explained it to me. I nearly shit myself and bent over in the cab vomiting on the ride back.
  • Cancelling my trip, I headed back to the office to assess the reality of what would happen, probabilities were no longer important.  Survival was important.  I had no money and was trading on a $25k note lent to me by my backer.
  • We covered by buying futures on my entire short open Interest equivalent of EXPIRED OUT OF THE MONEY OPTIONS in Singapore with a dealing firm.  We did this prior to even actually knowing if I was exercised, probabilities be damned. How did I know they exercised? The price covered at was $462; that is how. The 450s were already in the money by 12 cents.
  • Phibro exercised all 5k lots. I had a fraction of that but big enough to be carried out on a stretcher had the rest of my position not bailed me out/ performed on Tuesday next week.
  • The weird part was, the market stabilized that Tuesday and did not run to "infinity" as it could easily have. We found out later it was because Phibro's exercise was a no-no and Warren Buffet ordered them to shut the trade down as it was too big of a potential scandal. Especially in light of his coming to Solly's rescue and lending his good name to fix their most recent Treasury scandal. A couple head's rolled there if I remember correctly.
  • My guess was that the client was a Buffet or Soros type. Someone that would only go to Phibro, as these guys were the best at preventing information leakage, and always aligned themselves with client interests, where as if IB had an order  and acted in dual capacity as a dealer, he would potentially front-run the order or stop it out poorly on an exit. Phibro didn't take other side of their client's orders. They ran with them, and took care of the clients first.
  • Phibro got a big order for a client to buy silver, one that had to be handled expertly, and filled over time, no information leakage would be tolerated.  These guys were a prop desk that took orders as brokers once in a while.
  • They accumulated options for their own account (K 450C) to piggyback but not front-run the client.
  • They must have bought futures for themselves as well as the client with his permission.
  • They beat the VWAP by gunning the market on light volumes 1 hour before a 4 day US holiday. [TD: compare and contrast with the daily patterns seen every single day in the endless move up in the S&P]
  • They exercised the 450 Calls that day and then lifted the offers of the 1 or 2 OTC metals dealers left open during Singapore hours, running them over during illiquid markets.

Never Again!

  • I became infatuated with Phibro gamesmanship and made it a point to understand that particular type of player.
  • Libertarian Darwinist that I was I did not blame them. At the time It was a buyer-beware market for big businesses and they did nothing wrong. They took risk and they aren't bigger than the market. I wanted to play with the big boys, and that was the price.
  • For me it was about learning how to read the signs and not be on the wrong side of one of those events again, even if I was not privy to their meetings.

Here is some of what I learned:

  • In metals (and energy and anything else with an OTC market) the IB firms have dealing desks along GS, MS, Republic, JPMorgan, Scotia Mocatta, all were essentially broker dealers in precious metals. All had clients: miners who hedged production and hedge funds who speculated OTC. They provided liquidity by taking the other side of their client's trade and "back-to-backing" them in the futures markets or held onto them in their prop books as counterparty because of something else they saw.
  • Their client left resting orders with them in the IB's Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) which served as good information to trade around for the IB. Sometimes they front-ran the client, other times they go for stops to force the client to puke. Sometimes they'd just make markets, depending on many things. It was poker to them.
  • Phibro was different. These were smart guys but they weren't a dealing bank. They exploited imbalances in markets and took positions.  They had ideas. They also took orders for heavyweights who needed absolute discretion. They did not make it their business to fleece their own clients and instead aligned their interests. And they made the banks look like pikers when a client came to them with an order.
  • For the next 4 Years I paid attention to how those dealing banks and phibro played the markets. It was all about gamesmanship, Bayesian probability, and knowing your counterparty's motivation with these guys. Information and misinformation.

Some methods:

  • How I.B firms would use a thinly traded floor to print the price that would trigger a massive stop loss in the OTC markets and bury their own clients.  Or how they would buy for their own accounts in front of resting limit orders for clients and simply use their clients to stop themselves out if the market printed thru their buy levels.  Or how they would use dual representation to show loudly they were buyers on one side of the ring, while they were selling quietly upstairs to other OTC dealers.  Trading with themselves in multiple entities, etc.
  • An IB with a Commodity Index was in heaven. Prop trading, captive client flow from IB deals and OTC dealing and Brokerage. The good ones knew how to integrate and hedge macro risks, whether to front run their own index clients or get out off their way.  "Chinese walls" did not exist in Commods.
  • Commods were mostly self regulated and that lead to predatory yet mostly legal behaviour. 
  • Some of these were necessary to protect their interests with such a small number of players. Some were possibly unethical, but most were legal. Their clients were all big boys who left resting orders with the IBs at their own risk. Clients themselves had to resort to some of the same tricks to keep the IB desks honest, like Coming in backwards, "spoofing", leaving buy stops to get sell orders filled. The alternative for these clients was to put massive orders in the floor where liquidity was subjective, non continuous and information leakage was massive.

1997- Warren Buffet.

  • I got my chance to not get run over in 1997, when Warren Buffet gave an order to Phibro to buy silver.
  • Short version. Here is what went down.
  • Buffet gives Phibro the order- fact
  • Phibro begins filling it as a broker using various OTC dealers as counterparties, and letting the I.B dealers sweat getting out of the risk. - fact
  • Phibro buys options for their own account (no exercise game this time tho)- fact
  • Phibro buys futures for their own account. – not confirmed.
  • One by one the IB dealers start to catch on that this is no ordinary order Phibro is handling. They back away and liquidity gets harder to find.- fact
  • Other bigger hedge funds in the small circle of professionals, and other smart firms start getting long.- fact
  • Silver starts getting delivered from the Comex vaults. Some of it actually removed. Some of it just "covered with a sheet" for removal. But ounces begin to be removed from the warehouse. Phibro was rumored to be taking delivery and beginning to telegraph fear in the markets to start spoofing the VWAP. Rumor was they had a warehouse in Red Hook where they stored it.  Never confirmed.
  • Point here is, the saps for the last part of this play were the producers and refiners who were complacently net short and dependent on above ground silver to satisfy delivery requests.
  • Producers had been over-hedging for years in this market, as silver was cheap and they had business cash flow issues. It was their habit to sell forward production not yet available to them. And if forced to, they would lease already above ground silver and make delivery, collateralizing it with silver yet to be mined. Their positions were habitually synthetically long the contango as they rolled their deliverable production further and further out the curve in an attempt to squeeze much needed cash (cost of carry)for their businesses. The net effect was that sometimes they had to borrow silver for prompt delivery while they rolled their production hedge back further. – my interpretation of what I learned. May not be accurate to the "T", am not a physical guy.
  • Example: in 1995 a miner has silver due above ground in 1997. He hedges it in Z-1997 contract.  Z 1997 comes and if he doesn't have that silver available for some other reason; he covers the short and rolls it back. How much he needs to do this is a function of his obligations, cash flows, and his greed for carry. If leases are cheap, he will seek to capture all the contango and lease it until he gets the silver available.
  • If lease rates go up, it is not unlike a miner strike. Silver is needed for delivery now, and term risk becomes the issue. Contango collapses and market goes backwardated. He will be forced to sell the contango to get that prompt silver short back if he cannot make delivery. He has to defer delivery.
  • These guys were dependent on the specs NOT taking delivery for years. Specs didn't have balance sheets to take and store physical metal. Specs usually were the weak hands at futures expiry.
  • But then…..Entities that stored silver in bank vaults (like the Republic vault) begin to remove silver from the available pool for leasing. This made the "easy money" portion of production financing no longer easy.  Think: smart money getting the word that a squeeze was on and playing along with it.
  • Phibro (and others) start selling the contango in the futures market to prepare to take delivery of even more contracts. Or at least put pressure on the producers who had front month shorts they would have to make a decision on delivering. Phibro KNEW that the producers had to sell the spreads to get their shorts back. But they couldn't lift their shorts altogether as part of their financing deals with their bankers. Their own positions were now breaking down in every way except flat price. The market really didn't move much. This let them stay in denial.
  • Buffet announces he is long and intends to take delivery of silver. Contango collapses. Market spikes to 7.40.
  • Rumor is gov't intercedes and asks Buffet to not do this, it would break the industry. (Kind of like how the exchange begged the gov't to help it shut down the Hunt Bros.)  He says ok, and agrees to lend then their silver back to them. Essentially charging them 40% interest to delay delivery for a year

What to look for:

  • Find the overleveraged/ extended party- and you will find the weak hand at the table. (Producers in 1997)
  • Tail wags dog: if the pricing venue trades smaller volume than the OTC, then manipulate price with small volumes to execute trades with big volumes favorably.  (OTC vs Comex floor)
  • Divide and conquer- if counterparties are undercapitalized and/ or fragmented, then it will be easier to get them to move like a herd.  (happens in options ALL THE TIME at expiration)
  • Manipulate data- take delivery of metal, take risk off books, manipulate MTM data.
  • Create an exit strategy- a good catalyst like Easter weekend, an announcement by an investor etc.  or develop a market and grow your own bigger fool. ie – retail.

Comments - So many points to make here:

  • How derivative markets can create a problem thru too much liquidity that cannot easily be reconciled by bringing physical production on line fast enough.
  • How this works both ways, and that dealing banks have been playing the gold/silver carry game for easy funding of other trades for years.
  • How, even though I personally think that what the OTC does is their own business, but the increasing securitization of commodities leaves regulatory arbitrage and OTC games to affect a new generation of ETF buyers, either thru incremental banking or thru contango cancer. That Wall Street salesmen and players with access to both markets retail and professional can exploit the captive audience created with ETFs and other fund type instruments to shear and in some cases skin the sheep.
  • That much of this happens because the gov't is too stupid to see the inherent conflict of interest in what a broker-dealer does. Regulation will not stop gaming the law.  Ethics do, and not everybody has ethics. So best you can do is prevent situations of conflict of interest, like the existence of Broker-dealer type entities. Either you trade for yourself, or you trade for others. Period.
  • Fact is, if there were retail public in this game back then, the IB firms would have somehow sold them on the idea to BUY contango, or short silver. But the financialization of commodities wasn't there yet. And the "bigger fool" game stopped at the producers. If it happened again, with ETFs, cross regulatory semi fungible products, asymmetric access to venues and other factors in a global market, the public would be killed, short squeeze or long puke (like in UNG now) take your pick.
  • You can never know intentions, and no one is bigger than the market, but the consequences of a lack of transparency and the free reign in which banks can tell half-truths to investors is a big factor in enabling strong hands to fleece weak hands with little market risk. It's all a con game. And when the IBs figured out how to change the rules, then they were free to use their killer techniques to exploit a million little fish instead of the 10 big fish they usually competed with.
  • Phibro was a ballsy cowboy trading firm. The banks at the employee level are as well, but corporately, they first seek to make money and secondly provide a service. When they should be providing a service that makes money.
  • Everything that was done I've seen done the other way, keeping prices low, shaking out weaker players. Rarely does it happen in such a dramatic way. It is usually a series of "short cons" as opposed to Phibro's home run. It's all Darwinism. But when civilians are involved as they are now, then it is no longer caveat emptor.
  • Instead of taking a million dollars from a hedge fund, these guys take a dollar from a million people now.


Save Time & Stay Informed: Read These Financial Article Summaries

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 06:40 AM PDT

We all live extremely busy lives and often fail to keep up with the most informative articles posted on the internet. Below are links, with introductory paragraphs, to 20 very informative articles as*posted on *www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (an associate site). The articles are*related to Investing (gold/silver, the stock market, crude oil), the Economy (global/US, unemployment, debt and the money system) and Personal Finance (retirement, extra income and*employment opportunities). You're busy so just click on the title of the articles of interest to read them in their entirety. If you like this approach to getting highlighted versions of such articles, then [COLOR=#0000ff]Sign-up for Automatic Receipt of Articles as they get posted in their entirety*on www.munKNEE.com. Your Daily Intelligence Report provides an easy “unsubscribe” feature should you decide to*discontinue receiving them*at any time.[/COLOR] INVESTING 1. I'm Bullish On Gold for 3 Good Reasons – ...


Triple Lutz Report--Turnkey Totalitarianism Coming to American--Episode 172

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 06:19 AM PDT

Freedom to pursue your own happiness was guaranteed in the US Constitution. It was a novel ground-breaking earth-shattering ideal that has left statists scrambling ever since. The way they take away your freedoms is one at a time. First they go after freedoms that most people deem unnecessary or repugnant, like using drugs or advertising tabacco. Then they go after the freedoms that matter to you, like speech, the right to defend yourself, buying light bulbs or so many others that are currently under attack. Marijuana prohibitions are supported by law enforcement lobbyists who cash in big time. Just follow the money and you'll see. How much of our law enforcement infrastructure would be turned into surplusage, if the number of prohibitions was dramatically cut back?

And now words comes out that the largest NSA domestic spying center in history is being constructed in a remote part of Utah. As William Binney, former head NSA mathametician and whistleblower said, "We 'this' close to turnkey totalitarianism." Think about that the next time your child asks you about what freedom was like when you were a kid. 

Please fill out the subscription box at KerryLutz.com to instantly receive your free Financial Survival Toolkit & weekly gold and silver newsletter.


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Eric Sprott & David Morgan on Silver Manipulation

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 06:17 AM PDT

Mar/17/2012 Financial Sense Newshour : Eric...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website http://goldbasics.blogspot.com for full Content ]]


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“We Are Fearful of a Cascading Credit Event; Wide-Scale Market Collapse.”~Anonymous to CFTC who claims to be JPM whistle-blower

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 05:06 AM PDT

"We Are Fearful of a Cascading Credit Event; Wide-Scale Market Collapse."~Anonymous to CFTC who claims to be JPM whistle-blower Posted on March 18, 2012 by Davos Someone claiming to be a JP Morgan whistle-blower has posted a public comment to the UC Commodities Futures Trading Commission website, warning. I don't know if it was this, Iran | Middle [...]


Alasdair Macleod: Eurozone banks and contagion risk

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 03:57 AM PDT

11:55a ET Sunday, March 18, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod, writing at GoldMoney, predicts that not just the debt of the marginal European Union nations but all government debt will soon be impugned by Greece's bond default. Macleod's commentary is headlined "Eurozone Banks and Contagion Risk" and it's posted at GoldMoney here:

http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/eurozone-banks-a...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Reuters' James Saft tells Buffett that gold is insurance against bad money

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 03:48 AM PDT

What Is Gold For?

By James Saft
Reuters
Friday, March 16, 2012

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/us-column-gold-saft-idUSBRE82F...

An apparent economic recovery and a recent tumble in the price of gold has investors wondering if the precious metal has lost its place in a portfolio.

Gold, having soared higher since the onset of the financial crisis, is down about 17 percent from its September peak, and has fallen 7.5 percent in less than a month. In large part, gold's comeuppance is attributable to improving economic data and a sense that -- terrible as things may be in Europe -- the banking system will not implode.

So, then, if the world's not ending why own gold?

Arguing the case against gold ownership is none other than Warren Buffett, who argues for equities and calls gold a non-productive asset. Why hold gold, which never innovates, never increases profit margins and never opens up new markets?

... Dispatch continues below ...



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"If you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end," Buffett wrote in his most recent annual letter to shareholders. here

"This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand still further. Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce -- it will remain lifeless forever -- but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future," Buffett said.

Gold, Buffett correctly points out, has benefited first from a fear trade, bought up by investors who worry that central banks and governments will engineer a raging inflation in order to erode away the debts they struggle under.

Secondly, as with all assets that rise sharply in price, gold has gotten a push higher by momentum buyers, those who add their money to the rush in hopes of getting out when the trend wanes. Remove those supports and gold should fall, sharply and rapidly.

Buffett is surely right about gold's inability to procreate or grow, but I think he presents the fear trade as too much of an all-or-nothing bargain. Gold is a kind of anti-investment, an insurance policy against the bad actions of other people.

Sure, it won't invent a new widget and make you rich, but neither will it, like some company executives, overpay itself and re-price its share options.

It is reasonable, given the recent run of data, to think that another round of quantitative easing is less likely in the U.S. That surely must reduce the current value of gold, which unlike dollar bills can't be made to come into existence by a central banker.

But it is important to remember that the impact of QE isn't over simply if the Fed no longer prints money. There is still the issue of how to retract the huge amount of liquidity from a recovering economy.

It is important to note that longer-term U.S. debt has been selling off very strongly recently. That could be entirely benign, as it could simply reflect a more optimistic outlook for growth and hence a more normal outlook for inflation.

I'd worry, though, about what happens to inflation expectations if and when that move to higher rates is sustained. If the Fed has coaxed growth out of its cave it may then find it hard to get inflation back in its box. Gold is insurance against that, though like most insurance it most likely will never pay off, but has value anyway.

"As an owner of gold (and of Berkshire Hathaway stock) I can categorically say I don't own gold because I think the future will be dominated by monetary malfeasance. I own it because I think it might be," Societe Generale strategist Dylan Grice wrote in a note to clients.

An economic recovery, which is only a supposition at this point, does not solve the long-term indebtedness problem of U.S. and European economies, much less the demographic problem of Japan. It is a bit early to put those worries away entirely.

Grice, cleverly, also points out that the correct comparison is not between stocks and gold but between cash and gold.

Clearly Buffett understands the option value of cash. He is, after all, often ready to step in with a chunky cash investment when a company he admires is in need and gives him a good price.

Like cash, gold offers a kind of option value, and is really simply another form of cash, though one with different risk characteristics than dollars, euros, or yen. Like cash, or equities for that matter, gold is not an all-or-nothing proposition but a useful part of a portfolio.

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

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GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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Golden Phoenix Discusses Royalty Mining Growth Strategy
on '21st Century Business' on Fox Business Network

Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. has discussed its royalty mining growth strategy on the Fox Business Network program "21st Century Business" with host Jackie Bales. Golden Phoenix's director of corporate communications, Robert Ian, told how the company narrows its focus to project generation and future royalty streams. He explained why Golden Phoenix believes it's better to own joint-venture interests in several producing mines instead of full exposure to just one project.

"21st Century Business" has been airing for 15 years. Previous hosts have included Gen. Alexander Haig, Gen.l Norman Schwarzkopf, and Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger. Golden Phoenix appeared as paid programming on this broadcast.

To view the program with Golden Phoenix, please visit Golden Phoenix's Internet site here:

http://www.goldenphoenix.us/company-videos.html



Brazil vows to protect manufacturing with currency devaluation

Posted: 18 Mar 2012 03:37 AM PDT

By Joe Leahy
Financial Times, London
Friday, March 16, 2012

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b1d9f05a-6f8b-11e1-b368-00144feab49a.html

BRASILIA -- Brazil's finance minister has vowed to hold down the value of the real and enact new measures to protect domestic industries, in an attempt to revive the country's slumping economic growth.

"We don't want to lose our manufacturing sector," Guido Mantega told the Financial Times in an interview. "Brazil is not merely an exporter of commodities. We are not going to just sit by and watch while other countries devalue their currencies to give them a competitive advantage."

The centre-left government of Dilma Rousseff, the president, has staked its popularity on its ability to deliver high growth, taking pride in its membership of the Bric club of fast-growing emerging nations that includes Russia, India, and China.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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But like China and India, the country`s economy is slowing. In Brazil's case an influx of cheap imports, especially from China, has punished its manufacturing sector. Industrial production fell 2.1 per cent in January compared with December, led by a 30 per cent decline in automotive production.

Mr Mantega said the government will extend an exemption currently enjoyed by only a few sectors, under which a social security levy equivalent to 20 per cent of their total payroll has been replaced by a smaller tax on revenues. New beneficiaries would include the textile and clothing industry, one of Brazil's largest employers with about 2 million workers.

The government fears that employers will try to maintain their competitiveness by cutting worker salaries, hampering domestic consumption.

Growth slowed sharply last year to 2.7 per cent from 7.5 per cent in 2010, prompting the government to slash interest rates and take measures to protect industry.

The Brazilian government imposed higher taxes on imported cars, renegotiated a trade deal with Mexico, and raised taxes on foreign loans in an attempt to reduce capital inflows into the country. The last measure helped weaken the real, which is down from a 12-year-high reached in July.

"While conditions favour future growth, a slow recovery has compounded official concerns regarding the rising currency," said Itau bank economist Ilan Goldfajn in a research note.

Mr Mantega denied suggestions that Latin America's largest market had embraced protectionism, saying his country had a right to defend itself from a global glut in manufactured goods: "Brazil is not taking protectionist measures. Brazil is taking defensive measures. We are in favour of free competition ... but we cannot keep our borders completely free while others are using non-competitive mechanisms."

India, which is also confronting a slowdown, disappointed investors and economists on Friday by presenting a federal budget that failed to bring public spending under control and gave little reassurance that the nation was on a more credible fiscal path.

India's growth rate has fallen to 6.1 per cent from 9 per cent over the past two and a half years. "The aim is to again get [economic growth] back to 8-9 per cent," India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, said.

Pranab Mukherjee, India's finance minister, forecast a fiscal deficit of 5.9 per cent of GDP gross domestic product in the year to the end of March against a previous target of 4.6 per cent.

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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I guess central banks would rather have gold than shares of Berkshire Hathaway

Posted: 17 Mar 2012 09:29 PM PDT

As Retail Sells, Central Banks Wave Gold In With Both Hands


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