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Sunday, February 5, 2012

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Paper flooding Gold on sell side...wow

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 07:45 PM PST

COTS still in full paper sell mode and long closeouts. But the price keeps going up. Right.


Gold: $3,000? $5,000? $10,000? These 151 Analysts Think So!

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 04:50 PM PST

[B][B][B][B][/B][/B][/B][/B][B][B][B][B]151 analysts [B]maintain that gold will eventually reach a parabolic peak price of at [/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][B][B][B][B][B]least [/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][B][B][B][B][B][B]$3,000/ozt. before the bubble bursts of which 101 see gold reaching at least $5,000/ozt., 17 predict a parabolic peak price of as much as $10,000 per troy ounce*and a further*13 are on record as saying gold could go even higher than that.[/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][B][B][B][B] Take a look here at who is projecting what, by when and why. [/B][/B][/B][/B]Words: 844 Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) has identified below the analysts by name with their price projections and time frame. Please note that this complete paragraph, and a link back to the original article*, must be included in any article posting or re-posting to avoid copyright infringement. 10*Analysts Se...


Haynes and Norcini analyze another volatile week in the precious metals

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 02:53 PM PST

10:53p ET Saturday, February 4, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Another volatile week in the precious metals markets is analyzed by Bill Haynes of CMI Gold and Silver and futures market expert Dan Norcini at King World News:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/2/4_KW...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Join GATA here:

California Investment Conference
Saturday-Sunday, February 11-12, 2012
Hyatt Grand Champions Resort
Indian Wells, California, USA

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe...

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

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http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16


Rush To Buy Physical Gold And Silver Hasn’t Started Yet

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 01:55 PM PST

by Patrick A. Heller, CoinWeek.com:

Even though gold and silver prices are up significantly since the beginning of 2012, that doesn't necessarily mean that this trend will continue. Buyers and sellers modify their decisions as prices change.

When you look at who is and who isn't actively buying or selling gold and silver right now, that can give you significant clues as to where prices head in the near term.

Ever since the price of gold surpassed $1,000 for the first time in 2008, there has been significant liquidation and recycling of "scrap" gold such as jewelry and industrial products. In many instances, people who lost jobs or experienced other financial setbacks have sold assets to generate cash flow. Investment demand in the past three years has been so strong that prices continued to rise despite the increase in recycling supplies. From now into the future, however, the amount of scrap gold that could be liquidated will be smaller than it would have been because of all the gold already recycled.

Read More @ CoinWeek.com


SEC is avoiding tough sanctions for large banks

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 01:42 PM PST

By Edward Wyatt
The New York Times
Friday, February 3, 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/business/sec-is-avoiding-tough-sanctio...

WASHINGTON -- Even as the Securities and Exchange Commission has stepped up its investigations of Wall Street in the last decade, the agency has repeatedly allowed the biggest firms to avoid punishments specifically meant to apply to fraud cases.

By granting exemptions to laws and regulations that act as a deterrent to securities fraud, the S.E.C. has let financial giants like JPMorganChase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America continue to have advantages reserved for the most dependable companies, making it easier for them to raise money from investors, for example, and to avoid liability from lawsuits if their financial forecasts turn out to be wrong.

An analysis by The New York Times of SEC investigations over the last decade found nearly 350 instances where the agency has given big Wall Street institutions and other financial companies a pass on those or other sanctions. Those instances also include waivers permitting firms to underwrite certain stock and bond sales and manage mutual fund portfolios.

JPMorganChase, for example, has settled six fraud cases in the last 13 years, including one with a $228 million settlement last summer, but it has obtained at least 22 waivers, in part by arguing that it has "a strong record of compliance with securities laws." Bank of America and Merrill Lynch, which merged in 2009, have settled 15 fraud cases and received at least 39 waivers.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Golden Phoenix Receives Inferred Gold Resource Estimate
For Santa Rosa Mine in Panama: 669,000 Oz. Gold, 2.1 Million Oz. Silver

Company Press Release
January 3, 2012

Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. (OTC: GPXM) reports that on behalf of Golden Phoenix Panama S.A., the joint venture entity that owns and operates the Santa Rosa gold mine in Panama, it has received from SRK Consulting (U.S.) an initial resource estimate for Mina Santa Rosa.

The Santa Rosa project is a volcanic-hosted epithermal gold-silver deposit previously operated as an open pit-heap leach operation. Production ceased in 1999 in part because of low gold prices.

SRK Consulting reports an in-situ inferred resource at the former Santa Rosa and ADLM pits totaling 23.1 million metric tonnes at 0.90 grams/tonne gold, for a contained 669,000 ounces of gold at a 0.30 g/t gold cutoff. The resource also contains an average grade of 2.87 g/t silver for a contained 2.1 million ounces of silver.

John Bolanos, Golden Phoenix's vice president of exploration, remarks: "In addition to SRK's inferred resource estimate of 669,000 contained ounces of
gold, the Santa Rosa project has an additional unspecified volume of mineralized material on former heap leach pads throughout the property. We expect to begin assessing this additional material in the near future."

For the company's full statement, including a table detailing the resources at Santa Rose, please visit:

http://goldenphoenix.us/press-release/golden-phoenix-receives-initial-ni...



Only about a dozen companies -- Dell, General Electric, and United Rentals among them — have felt the full force of the law after issuing misleading information about their businesses. Citigroup was the only major Wall Street bank among them. In 11 years, it settled six fraud cases and received 25 waivers before it lost most of its privileges in 2010.

By granting those waivers, the S.E.C. allowed Wall Street firms to have powerful advantages, securities experts and former regulators say. The institutions remained protected under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which makes it easier to avoid class-action shareholder lawsuits.

And the companies continue to use rules that let them instantly raise money publicly, without waiting weeks for government approvals. Without the waivers, the companies could not move as quickly as rivals that had not settled fraud charges to sell stocks or bonds when market conditions were most favorable.

Other waivers allowed Wall Street firms that had settled fraud or lesser charges to continue managing mutual funds and to help small, private companies raise money from investors -- two types of business from which they otherwise would be excluded.

"The ramifications of losing those exemptions are enormous to these firms," David S. Ruder, a former S.E.C. chairman, said in an interview. Without the waivers, agreeing to settle charges of securities fraud "might have vast repercussions affecting the ability of a firm to continue to stay in business," he said.

S.E.C. officials say that they grant the waivers to keep stock and bond markets open to companies with legitimate capital-raising needs. Ensuring such access is as important to its mission as protecting investors, regulators said.

The agency usually revokes the privileges when a case involves false or misleading statements about a company's own business. It does not do so when the commission has charged a Wall Street firm with lying about, say, a specific mortgage security that it created and is selling to investors, a charge Goldman Sachs settled in 2010. Different parts of the company -- corporate officers versus a sales force, for example -- are responsible for different types of statements, officials say.

"The purpose of taking away this simplified path to capital is to protect investors, not to punish a company," said Meredith B. Cross, the S.E.C.'s corporation finance director, referring to the fast-track offering privilege. "You're not seeing the times that waivers aren't being granted, because the companies don't ask when they know the answer will be no."

Others, however, argue that the pattern is another example of the government being too soft on Wall Street as it has become a much larger part of the economy in recent decades.

President Obama, in his State of the Union address, asked Congress last week for tougher laws that make "the penalties for fraud count." Federal judges in New York and Wisconsin recently criticized the S.E.C. for its habit of settling cases by allowing companies to promise not to violate the law in the future.

The commission has frequently turned the other cheek when the companies again settle similar fraud cases. S.E.C. officials have defended that practice by saying they do not have the resources to take cases to court rather than settle. They recently asked Congress to toughen laws and to raise financial penalties for fraud violations.

But the repeated granting of waivers suggests that the agency does in fact have tools it often does not use, critics say. Close to half of the waivers went to repeat offenders -- Wall Street firms that had settled previous fraud charges by agreeing never again to violate the very laws that the S.E.C. was now saying that they had broken.

Senator Charles E. Grassley, an Iowa Republican who serves on committees that oversee the S.E.C., said he was baffled that the agency had recently asked Congress for more enforcement powers when it had ceded much of the power it already had.

"It's really hard to see why the S.E.C. isn't using all of its weapons to deter fraud," he said. "It makes already weak punishment even weaker by waiving the regulations that impose significant consequences on the companies that settle fraud charges. No wonder recidivism is such a problem."

The Times analysis found 11 instances where companies that had settled fraud cases had actually lost the special privilege for fast-track stock or bond offerings, versus 49 times that the S.E.C. granted waivers from the punishment to Wall Street firms since 2005. The analysis counted 91 waivers since 2000 granting immunity from lawsuits, and 204 waivers related to raising money for small companies and managing mutual funds.

The S.E.C. does not maintain a central database of how many companies lose special status or are denied waivers. Its records of granted waivers are scattered across several databases on its Web site.

JPMorganChase is among the big Wall Street firms that have been granted multiple waivers with nearly every settlement of S.E.C. fraud charges. Last July, it agreed to pay $228 million to settle civil and criminal charges that it cheated cities and towns by rigging bids with other Wall Street firms to invest the money raised by several municipalities for capital projects.

JPMorgan received three waivers related to that case for privileges that it otherwise would have lost. But the S.E.C. said the company's fraudulent actions didn't involve misleading investors about JPMorgan's business.

"That distinction doesn't do it for me," said Richard W. Painter, a corporate law professor at the University of Minnesota and the co-author of a casebook on securities litigation and enforcement. "If a company has trouble telling the truth to investors in one batch of securities it is underwriting, I would not have confidence that it would tell the truth to investors about its own securities."

Despite six securities fraud settlements in 13 years, JPMorgan rarely if ever lost any special privileges. It has been awarded at least 22 waivers since 2003, with most of its S.E.C. settlements generating two or more. In seeking the reprieves, lawyers for JPMorgan stated in letters to the S.E.C. that it should grant a waiver because the company has "a strong record of compliance with the securities laws." The company declined to comment for this article.

Citigroup is one of the rare Wall Street giants that has lost significant privileges recently. In October 2010, the bank paid $75 million to settle charges that it misled investors in 2007 about the size of its holdings of assets backed by subprime mortgages. The company told investors that it had about $13 billion of those risky investments on its balance sheet, when it really had more than $50 billion, according to the S.E.C.

Because those accusations involved Citigroup's statements about its own financial well-being, the company lost for three years the ability to insulate itself from lawsuits over mistaken predictions about its business. It also lost, for the same three years, the exemption for "well-known seasoned issuers," which allowed it to quickly raise capital in the securities markets. As a result, Citigroup has had to file thousands of pages of new documents with the S.E.C. and wait weeks for the agency's approvals to make itself eligible to sell stocks, bonds and other securities to the public.

Citigroup declined to comment on whether the sanctions have had any effect on its business.

Wrangling over waivers is an important part of the negotiations when companies accused of fraud discuss a settlement with the S.E.C., and sometimes it can involve a form of corporate plea bargaining to a lesser charge.

In 2009, the S.E.C. was negotiating with Bank of America over charges that it had failed to disclose to shareholders that billions of dollars in bonuses were being paid to Merrill Lynch executives just as Bank of America was bailing out the firm.

Because the S.E.C. charges involved fraudulent statements by both Bank of America and Merrill Lynch about their financial status, the merged company was in danger of losing its special privileges for both offerings and forecasts. According to a report by the then-S.E.C. inspector general, H. David Kotz, the waiver issue "was of such importance to B. of A. that the settlement became contingent on B. of A.'s receipt of the waiver."

Bank of America apparently won the argument but would not comment on it. It settled the case by agreeing to a $150 million payment. The S.E.C., however, decided not to charge the bank with fraud, which could have endangered the bank's special status. Instead, the S.E.C. charged Bank of America with violating disclosure rules for shareholder materials and proxies, and Bank of America kept its privileges.

S.E.C. officials said they would not discuss how they arrived at specific settlements and declined to comment on the Citigroup, JP Morgan or Bank of America settlements.

Thomas Lee Hazen, a securities law professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said that it is understandable that the S.E.C. might relax some potential sanctions on Wall Street firms -- where it appears that lessons have been learned, or when a fine is thought to be sufficient punishment.

"The ripple effect of having a sanction that could shut them down or could seriously impede a company's operations would seriously affect a lot of innocent customers," he said. "It's a very fine balance. That's not to say that the S.E.C. is striking the balance properly. That is in the eye of the beholder."

* * *

Join GATA here:

California Investment Conference
Saturday-Sunday, February 11-12, 2012
Hyatt Grand Champions Resort
Indian Wells, California, USA

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe...

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

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GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Corrective Action in Gold is Prelude to Bullish Explosion: James Turk

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 01:35 PM PST

"The sell offs in gold and silver [about 2% apiece] were specific only to those two precious metals, as platinum barely moved...and palladium was unchanged." ...


Is Gold in a Bubble?

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 01:35 PM PST

by James Turk, GoldMoney.com:

Electronic stock ticker Every once in a while a bubble forms in a market. Bubbles can occur in any market, whether stocks, commodities, real estate or as we know from history, even tulip bulbs.

Market bubbles are, as the name implies, unsustainable. They are manifest by inflated prices that go up and up to achieve unthinkable levels for a while, and in some cases, for a very long while. But like their soap-bubble counterparts, market bubbles clearly lack durability. They can pop at any time. So inevitably, the bubble pops, with the unfailing result that prices thereafter quickly drop back to earth.

In essence, bubbles are nothing more than an emotional frenzy in which prices climb to unheard of levels, until the market attains a shocking level of overvaluation. To achieve this outrageous situation in which price far exceeds an asset's value, a bubble involves the near-universal acceptance of some delusive idea.

Read More @ GoldMoney.com


Alasdair Macleod: Gold and silver price shakeout

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 01:27 PM PST

9:25p ET Saturday, February 4, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod writes tonight at GoldMoney that gold's price adjusted for the explosion in the money supply is only around $360. "Conventional portfolio managers have missed this point entirely, being hampered by the legacies of portfolio management theory and Keynesian economics," Macleod writes. "But there is a growing band of private individuals around the world who do get it and are accumulating physical gold and silver. They are beginning to understand that paper money is falling rather than gold and silver rising."

Macleod's commentary is headlined "Gold and Silver Price Shakeout" and it's posted in the research section of the GoldMoney Internet site here:

http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/gold-and-silver-...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


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Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



Join GATA here:

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Indian Wells, California, USA

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe...

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http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Prophecy Coal (TSX: PCY) Wins Positive Feasibility Study
for the 600-MW Chandgana Power Plant in Mongolia

Company Press Release
January 17, 2012

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Coal Corp. (TSX: PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) has received a positive feasibility study for the company's 600-megawatt Chandgana Mine-Mouth Power Project in central Mongolia. The report was independently prepared by Ralf Thomsen, project manager at Steag, a German firm specializing in the planning, financing, construction, and operation of highly efficient thermal power plants for fossil fuels.

The study covers technical specifications, deployment, and financial analysis of a 4x150-mw thermal power plant to be built adjacent to Prophecy's Chandgana Tal coal deposit, which contains 140 million tonnes of measured coal. Last year the power plant received a construction license and the coal deposit received a mining license. Engineering, procurement, and construction management selection and project financing discussion have begun and are expected to be concluded this year.

Construction is planned to start in April 2013, with the first 150-mw unit being commissioned in October 2015 and subsequent units to start in April 2016, October 2016, and April 2017. With proper maintenance the project will have 30 years of commercial operation.

For the complete statement from the company, including maps and charts, please visit:

http://www.prophecycoal.com/news_2011_jan17_prophecy_receives_power_plan...



The Silver Bullet and the Silver Shield – Part 9. Gold is the Gut Reaction, Silver is the Smart Decision

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 01:20 PM PST

13 States seek currencies made of Silver & Gold

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 10:13 AM PST

Robert Ian reports that Worried that the Federal...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website http://goldbasics.blogspot.com for full Content ]]


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Freddie Mac Mortgage Predator | Alan Boyce on Inverse Floaters

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 07:58 AM PST

For Yves Smith

Below is a note from Alan Boyce at Absalon regarding inverse floaters, a subject that goes to the heart of the debate over whether Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are preventing millions of lower income home owners from refinancing.   You can see my 2011 post on the Boyce-Mayer-Hubbard proposal for streamlined mortgage refinancing here:

<http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/boyce-hubbard-mayer-streamlined-ref...

Not only is the large bank-GSE cartel preventing millions of Americans from refinancing, but these same cartel players are also thwarting Fed monetary policy and hurting all our economic prospects.   Housing is the primary conduit for Fed monetary policy.  As Laurie Goodman of Amherst Securities has said over and over, there is a cost to doing nothing.

Last week when ProPublica reported that Fannie Mae was managing its portfolio using specific trades to further prey upon low income borrowers in precisely the way that Boyce has described for the past three years, http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-shown-mortga..., the Friends of Freddie sprang into action.

Rebuttals of the Freddie predator thesis came flying.  Even the good folks at American Banker were hornswoggled into believing that Freddie was innocent of predatory behavior in managing its portfolio.   But then FHFA head Ed DeMarco publicly responded. < http://www.propublica.org/article/freddie-macs-regulator-says-trades-wer...

Of note, Freddie Mac also shut down their investor website Wednesday.   Still not up as of this morning.   That is where Boyce looked at 4 years of REMICs and found the 29 deals where Freddie provided the MBS collateral and took back the IIOs.  Don't worry, we have copies of all the PDFs that were up on the FHFA site.

It may be that the defensive reaction by FHFA regarding the web site came about due to Ed DeMarco's public rebuke of the ProPublica report, a response that was a tad too informative say sources close to the matter.  DeMarco essentially admitted to the predatory portfolio trades by Freddie, then indicated that the bad acts were not taking place any longer.  To paraphrase the Bard, me thinks DeMarco protests overmuch.

One additional line of inquiry that could be pursued in more detail by Congress  is a somewhat more specific issue surrounding who had exactly what information about the policy decisions when.  Did any of the investment team at Freddie have any non public information about policy decisions or strategies when they made these investments? 

FHFA talked about a Chinese wall in the original story, if we remember correctly.  Can we look more at exactly how that wall worked in both directions?  More interestingly, how can FHFA oversee both sides of the proverbial Chinese wall without becoming a source of information exchange?

Option one.  Investment team knew about policy in non-public ways

Option two:  Policy team knew about investment strategy

Option three:  Neither team knew about the other, but FHFA knew about both

Key passage from FHFA response to Senator Casey:

"It strikes me that we still don't know some important things:

1.       When did the FHFA's concerns arise?

2.       How did it come to the FHFA's attention?

3.       Did the FHFA – did Mr. DeMarco himself – approve the transactions in the first place?

4.       Freddie has ceased these but the company hasn't wound them down. So they still require specialized risk management. So how have the FHFA's concerns been alleviated?

5.       Did the FHFA think that Freddie was trying to sell down its portfolio while keeping risk on its balance sheet?

6.       Why was Freddie doing these in the first place?

Can't wait to hear the answers to these and other questions when DeMarco next appears before Congress.  Tomorrow PM will post a Q&A with Alan on the Freddie Mac story on ZH -- Chris

Inverse Floaters Explained

Alan Boyce

Overview

Inverse floaters (a.k.a. Inverse IOs or IIOs) are complex securities.  The discussion below is intended to provide enough detail to understand the transactions, so a reader who is not an expert in structured finance may still find this challenging. Agency MBS have no credit risk, as that is borne by the GSE guarantor, but they do have a myriad of interest rate risks.  These liquid and transparent securities are sliced and diced to create highly complex tranches.  Complicated securities have a relatively long history in mortgages, often for quite compelling reasons. Securities are designed to meet specific investor objectives, such as allowing investors to take specific risks or hedge existing businesses or portfolios, raising proceeds from the sale of securities. Other tranches are designed to appeal to investors who want to invest in agency MBS but cannot for regulatory or other reasons. Nonetheless, the complicated nature of securitizations makes it hard for a casual observer to understand the transactions and value them using standard accounting and risk metrics.

To understand the difference between an IO (interest only) and PO (principal only) security, consider the cash flows from a fixed rate mortgage. Each month, the borrower makes a payment that involves principal and interest. In the simplest form, the PO tranche receives the principal portion of the payment, while the IO tranche receives the interest component. If the borrower decides to pay off the mortgage, the principal portion receives the entire portion of the payoff, and the IO will receive no future payments. In many bond deals, principal position also receives some interest to make it more attractive to borrowers. This security is called a "floater," as it receive some interest in addition to principal, usually based on a fixed spread to a short-term interest rate like LIBOR.  LIBOR is the "London Inter-Bank Offer Rate", which is the rate at which large banks are willing to pay for short-term deposits.  In these deals, the IO piece receives the fixed rate of interest from the mortgage, less the short-term interest payment that is made to the LIBOR floater tranche, which contains most of the principal. These IO securities are referred to as IO Inverse Floaters.

The LIBOR floater securities (composed of principal payments plus LIBOR-based interest) are attractive for investors because of their low sensitivity to interest rate changes. While prepayment speeds may vary, the bonds are originated and trade close to par, so the economic value to the investor is roughly the same in different prepayment environments. When a borrower pays off his or her mortgage, the LIBOR floater investor expects to be able to re-invest the proceeds in another LIBOR floater security that also pays interest based on short-term rates. Such prepayments might be due to a borrower refinancing the mortgage, defaulting on a mortgage, or selling and moving to a new home.

Structuring securities does not reduce the risk inherent in a pool of fixed rate mortgages. When one class of securities, the floater tranche, is designed to bear little interest rate or prepayment risk, the remaining tranche, the IO tranche, will bear all the remaining risk. In these cases, the IO securities are valuable when borrowers do not refinance at the same time that LIBOR interest rates are low relative to the interest rate on the underlying mortgages. The IO securities are even more valuable when borrowers continue to pay very high interest rates without refinancing, as has been the case with many of the Freddie Mac IO securities.

An Example

To understand the risks facing IO and PO classes, it is useful to consider to a relatively simple numerical example. Suppose we begin with $100 million of outstanding Freddie Mac-guaranteed mortgages that are paying an interest rate of 6.5%. First, let us consider an investment in these loans as a whole. These mortgages would be packaged into a bond paying a coupon of 6%, with the other half a percent going to pay for mortgage servicing and Freddie Mac's guarantee fee. A Freddie Mac 6% coupon security currently trades at a price of about 110 cents on the dollar, so the $100 million in mortgages would have a market value of $110 million. As mentioned earlier, these securities do not present any credit risk, as Freddie Mac guarantees them and will pay an investor in the case of default. However, these bonds still face prepayment risk: if all of the borrowers were to simultaneously refinance their mortgages today, the bondholders would receive their principal payments, but the future stream of interest payments would be completely wiped out. Thus, the $110 million investment would drop in value to $100 million, a loss of $10 million.

Now, let us consider what happens when we split the payments into two types of classes: floaters and inverse floaters. Floaters get most of their value from principal payments and are structured to receive just enough interest so that they trade on the market at par (ie, the market value and face value are equal). For our example, suppose that we create $90 million in face value of floaters that will pay an interest rate equal to the 1-month LIBOR, currently about 30 basis points. The investors holding these floaters will then receive the principal payments from the $90 million in collateral, as well as an interest rate of 0.3%. We then take the other $10 million in principal payments and all of the remaining interest payments and package them into an inverse floater class.  The owner of the inverse floater will receive the principal payments and full interest payments from the $10 million in collateral, and it will also receive the remaining 5.7% (6% - 0.3%) interest on the $90 million of mortgages placed into the floaters. This works out to an initial coupon rate of 59.7% for the $10 million (face value) inverse floater. However, this coupon can drop quickly if LIBOR increases.

While these securities are relatively complex, we can actually understand their value just through the use of algebra. First, in terms of pricing, we know that before they are split up, all of the mortgages together are worth $110 million. We also know that the floaters are specifically designed to trade at par, so the $90 million in face value of floaters should trade at very close to $90 million on the market. This makes intuitive sense, given that the floaters have no default risk and that their floating coupon payment provides insulation from any interest rate risk. This therefore implies a $20 million valuation for the inverse floaters, since the two classes together must be worth the total $110 million. Turning to risk, we observe that the floaters have no prepayment risk: they are currently trading at par, and if all borrowers simultaneously prepay their mortgages, investors will receive $90 million. This means that the entirety of the prepayment risk is borne by the inverse floater class. Indeed, if all borrowers were to prepay, the $20 million investment would drop to the $10 million in face value, a loss of $10 million. Thus, the investors who hold the inverse floaters effectively retain the risk on the entire $100 million of mortgages, even if it does not appear that way on their balance sheets.

A Real World Example: Freddie Mac Series 3807

To better understand how inverse floaters work, it is useful to look an actual security issued by Freddie Mac in which the agency retained a position. One particularly striking example of this is Series 3807 of Freddie Mac's multiclass certificates, which was closed on February 28, 2011. This deal involved a total sale of $5.65 billion of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). This analysis focuses on one class in Group 4, which consists principal and interest payments on $1.88 billion of mortgage-backed securities. As of January 2011, the underlying mortgages had a weighted average loan age of 41 months (meaning most were originated about 3.5 years earlier in mid-2007) and an above-market interest rate of 7.05%.  The MBS have a pass-through coupon of 6.50%, which goes to the bond investor. According to disclosures in the prospectus filed with the SEC, Freddie Mac purchased all of the IO classes of the bonds and a PO bond that is based on about $134 million of the principal balances. The remaining cash flows were sold into 7 tranches of LIBOR floaters.

Table 1, shown below from the front page of the offering circular, shows the various bond classes created in Group 4 of this deal. There are 8 bond classes based on principal payments (FC-FL plus PO) and one bond class based on interest payments (SI). The first 7 bond classes, FC-FL, totaling $1,746,143,354, were apparently sold to outside investors. Freddie Mac retained the entire balances of PO ($134,318,720) and SI ($1,746,143,354). For structuring reasons, PO and SI were combined into a new class, SB, based on the PO notional principal of $134,318,720.[1] In other words, investing $1 in SB is exactly identical to holding balances of $1 of PO and $13 of SI, an effective leverage ratio of 13:1.

Table 1  (from front page, S-1, of the Offering Circular Supplement for Multiclass Certificates, Series 3807, dated January 20, 2011)


Pento - Bond Bubble to Destroy US Dollar &amp; Restore Gold

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 07:37 AM PST

Today Michael Pento told King World News the bond bubble is going to result in the destruction of the US Dollar and the restoration of gold as the premier store of wealth around the world. Pento, who founded Pento Portfolio Strategies, also said the rise of bubbles in key areas of finance can leave market participants in shock. Pento had this to say about the situation: "They always tell you no one rings a bell when a market top or bottom is reached. But a bell is now ringing for the end of the thirty-year bull market in U.S. debt. And ironically, the bell ringer is our very own U.S. Treasury! The U.S. Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, which brings together dealers and Treasury officials, met last week in a closed meeting at the Hays Adams Hotel."


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By the Numbers for the Week Ending February 3

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 06:27 AM PST

HOUSTON --  After a short technical glitch caused a delay, just below is this week's closing table followed by the CFTC disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) recap table for the week ending February 3, 2012.  

20120203-Table

If the images are too small click on them for a larger version.

Vultures, (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please note that updates to our linked technical charts, including our comments about the COT reports and the week's technical changes, should be completed by the usual time on Sunday evening (by 18:00 ET). 

As a reminder, the linked charts for gold, silver, mining shares indexes and important ratios are located in the subscriber pages.  In addition Vultures have access anytime to all 30-something Vulture Bargain (VB) and Vulture Bargain Candidates of Interest (VBCI) tracking charts – the small resource-related companies that we attempt to game here at Got Gold Report.   Continue to look for new commentary often.  This was yet another very good week for many of our "Faves," but a late-week outside reversal on gold and silver and sharply contracting hi-lo spreads for gold and silver suggest the metals "want" to take a breather.  They may or may not take that breather, but they seem to want to.  

 
Continued…

20111221-Vik

 
Remember that the linked charts on the subscriber pages are always the first place to look for new commentary at GGR.  In the future we intend to rely more on the charts to communicate, especially when it comes to our own trades.  Note important changes to our stop levels for our silver and GDXJ trades underway on Sunday evening also.  

Finally, we have just emailed out the full Vulture Bargain Roundup Update for February-March and have posted it to the password protected subscriber pages.  Kindly log in to view the report in the Vulture Bargain Section.  We updated all of our fully fledged Vulture Bargain Issues, including our targets for going to "Free Shares," as well as our review of the various, very busy happenings underway.  It's an exciting time to be a Bargain Hunting Vulture.  


Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT)

In the DCOT table below a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter.

All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report.

20120203-DCOT

(DCOT Table for Friday, February 3, 2012, for data as of the close on Tuesday, January 31.   Source CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold and silver.)  

*** We will have more about the COT in the linked technical charts for Vultures by Sunday evening, including a very large jump in the Swap Dealer net short positioning for gold, which gives an artificially bearish skew to the legacy gold LCNS.  As shown above, the Producer/Merchants added a small 3,850 lots net short on a $72.46 jump in the gold price Tues/Tues.  Pay attention.  Silver COT is consistent with historic norms for a $1.13 advance in our opinion. More in the linked charts for subscribers by Sunday evening… ***


Keiser Report: The Vaporized &amp; The Deleted (E245)

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 06:19 AM PST

discuss the vaporized & deleted - assets, wealth, job, economy of the 99% have been stolen. Daniel Collins China's imports of gold...


How Europe Has Evolved From A Democracy To A Bankocracy And Why Austerity Will Lead To Chaos

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 05:50 AM PST

In one of the clearest (and most optically pleasing) discussions of recent months, David McWiliams (of Punk Economics) succinctly explains how Europe has evolved from a democracy to a bankocracy, the implications of which lead to austerity for the people and a Franco-German imposition (the 'fiscal compact') that can only lead to social unrest and chaos. In this brief (and expertly illustrated) video, the Irish economist clarifies Europe's 'dirty little secret' where economic policy is being run almost exclusively for the banks which, as we see in Greece and Ireland, means the political elite are becoming more and more detached from the people. The terror of the r-word (referendum) looms large as McWilliams analogizes the two ways out of a debt crisis (squeeze the debtor or forgive the debtor) with the catholic and protestant perspectives on sin and forgiveness. While falling short of calling for governments to go full-Keynesian (everyone knows you never go full-Keynesian), he (focusing on the problems of the current hopeful solution) summarizes the fiscal union as envisaged by France and Germany (which actually penalizes countries that are in trouble, rather than help them) as not a friendly-union but a vindictive strait-jacket put in place to help banks, not countries. It comes as no surprise to him that the price of Gold (and Bunds) is firm as the 'example' that Greece is likely to set (or face extreme social upheaval) will domino-like stumble across the other troubled nations and as he points "we have been warned". Our view remains that austerity works if countries manage to cut expenses while keeping a balance. Alas, the balance is out of skew due to 30 years of runaway full-Keynesianism, which leads indeed to the problems that McWilliams so well espouses.

 


Gold and silver shakeout

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 05:30 AM PST

The following article was posted at GoldMoney, here.   

Gold and silver price shakeout

2012-FEB-04

Image001
The consolidation of gold’s bull phase from October 2008 to the peak last September was a classic three-leg correction: an initial slide, rally, and final sell-off. Silver followed a similar but more violent pattern. The psychology was there too, with the final sell-off convincing many investors the game was finally over.

Those who sold will most probably be kicking themselves. Consolidations that break established trends, such as 200-day moving averages, shake out weak holders who will buy again higher up when they are more confident. The big traders in the futures market know this: your losses are simply their gains. And as a result both gold and silver are on a far sounder footing with these weak holders out of the way. It is lethal for your savings to play this game. Instead it is more sensible to understand what is happening in simple economic terms. To do this you must turn your normal thinking upside down, and realise that what is happening to precious metals prices is only a reflection of what is actually happening to paper money.

Put simply, governments all over the world are debasing their paper monies at an accelerating rate. Printing euros to rescue the banks has been in the headlines, but this process has only just begun. America, which has to be the focus of monetary attention, is committed to zero interest rates for the next three years, which is unprecedented. The result is that the price of gold has been left behind by exceptional monetary events. You can see this clearly in the chart below.

Image004

This chart shows US dollar True Money Supply (cash, instant deposits and checking accounts plus a few other minor cash balances) expressed in official gold reserves held at the US Treasury. This has soared over the years, and we can expect it to accelerate further from December’s figure of $31,600 per ounce of gold. Meanwhile, the percentage of TMS actually backed by gold stood at 4.8% at the year-end, and this is shown by the blue line.

The chart clearly shows that while gold has risen dramatically over the last decade in nominal dollar terms, adjusted for the extra money in the system it has only risen 150%. Amazingly, the price of gold measured in these TMS terms has only risen to where it was in late 1991, when the nominal price was $360. Gold’s valuation is therefore still at exceptionally low levels.

The sense of perspective charts like this imparts is vital for understanding the dangers from the tsunami of paper money and debt. Conventional portfolio managers have missed this point entirely, being hampered by the legacies of portfolio management theory and Keynesian economics. But there is a growing band of private individuals around the world who do get it and are accumulating physical gold and silver. They are beginning to understand that paper money is falling rather than gold and silver rising.

The message is if you think like an investor, you will probably lose your investment. Be aware of what is happening to paper money and you probably won’t.

Tags: central banks, Fed, gold price, silver price, USA

Alasdair Macleod

macleod@financeandeconomics.org

www.financeandeconomics.org


VB Update Notes for February - March 2012

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 04:21 AM PST

HOUSTON –  Recall that we began the last full Vulture Bargain (VB) Update with a look at the graph for the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index (GDXJ), which we chose as our Top Pick for 2012 following its 2011 hammering back to 2010 levels.  That seemed to "work" in the luck department, so let's have another look to start this update.     

20120203-GDXJ-Graph1

Since December 30 the GDXJ has advanced $4.91 or 19.9%, closing Friday, February 3 at $29.61.  We can definitely say that the month of January was a good start to 2012 for this beaten up space, can we not? 

We can say that the GDXJ ended up respecting the support zone we thought it might (in the green), and it is now moving into an area that represents a potential resistance zone (yellow).  How it acts in and around that zone just ahead should tell us a lot. 

Now let's look at GDXJ's Canadian counterpart, the S&P/TSX Canadian Venture Exchange Index (CDNX), which we also looked at last time.  Recall that we said then:  "Although it is still less than certain, we have the potential for the first higher turning low since January, 2011."    Houston, we have a higher turning low on the CDNX.  We are "go" for liftoff.   

20120203-CDNX-graph2-1

And now the CDNX is challenging the gap from back in September.  We'd be fairly surprised if the gap ends up holding.  Indeed, we expect the gap to give way just ahead, maybe after a brief retreat to allow the market to catch its breath. 

The brutal buyer's strike and Negative Liquidity Event (NLE) which dominated 2011 may have officially ended in January of 2012.  

20120203-Jack-Lord-3

In the words of Jack Lord, "Book 'em Dano."  

To continue reading, please log in or click here to subscribe to a Got Gold Report Membership.



 


Gold Junior Mining Stocks Poised to Rebound

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 02:31 AM PST

Economics and politics. Accretion and repletion. Mergers and acquisitions. Joe Mazumdar, senior mining analyst with Haywood Securities, sees all of these as catalysts for a rebound in the junior gold space in 2012. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, he reveals the names of companies he expects to take off. The Gold Report: What is the consensus among Haywood analysts on what 2012 will bring for mine commodities, particularly precious metals?


This Past Week in Gold

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 02:24 AM PST

Summary: Long term - on major buy signal. Short term - on buy signals. Gold cycle has bottomed and we are 50% invested. Will add to positions upon new set ups. Read More...



GATA London conference DVD sets on sale now

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 02:04 AM PST

10:04a ET Saturday, February 4, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Video of GATA's two-day Gold Rush 2011 conference at the Savoy Hotel in London last August is now available in attractive boxed sets of four DVDs that include every presentation -- and all of them remain immensely relevant to today's market conditions.

The conference speakers included some of the best minds in the monetary metals: GATA Chairman Bill Murphy; GATA board member Adrian Douglas; Sprott Asset Management CEO Eric Sprott and Chief Investment Strategist John Embry; gold mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair; GoldMoney founder James Turk; silver market manipulation whistleblower Andrew Maguire; Cheviot Asset Management Investment Director Ned Naylor-Leyland; Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies; geopolitical analyst James G. Rickards; Mexician Civic Association for Silver President Hugo Salinas Price; gold market manipulation litigator Reginald H. Howe; Samex Mining CEO Jeff Dahl; Kirkland Lake Gold CEO Brian Hinchcliffe; and market analysts Alasdair Macleod, Peter George, John Brimelow, and James McShirley. Your secretary/treasurer also spoke.

The conference drew 400 participants from 38 countries and many said it was the best financial conference they had ever attended.

The DVD package is priced at $125 plus a few dollars for shipping. When the first edition -- 200 sets -- is gone, we'll be raising the price.

To learn more about the DVD package and to order by credit card, please visit:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Multi-Million-Ounce Gold and Silver Deposits in Canada

Northaven Resources Corp. (TSX-V:NTV) is advancing five gold and silver projects in highly prospective and politically stable British Columbia, Canada.

Check out the exploration program on our Allco gold/silver project :

-- A large (13,000 hectare) property, covering more than 15 square kilometers of a regional mineralized trend just 3km from a recently announced 1.2-million-ounce gold and 15-million-ounce silver deposit.

-- The property hosts historic high-grade silver workings and many mineral showings as well as former mines at the property's northern and southern boundaries.

-- A deep-penetrating airborne geophysics survey has just been completed on the entire property and neighboring deposits and its results are eagerly awaited.

To learn more about the Allco property or Northaven's other gold and silver projects, please visit:

http://www.northavenresources.com

Or call Northaven CEO Allen Leschert at 604-696-3600.



Join GATA here:

California Investment Conference
Saturday-Sunday, February 11-12, 2012
Hyatt Grand Champions Resort
Indian Wells, California, USA

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe...

Support GATA by purchasing a silver commemorative coin:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

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Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Golden Phoenix Receives Inferred Gold Resource Estimate
For Santa Rosa Mine in Panama: 669,000 Oz. Gold, 2.1 Million Oz. Silver

Company Press Release
January 3, 2012

Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. (OTC: GPXM) reports that on behalf of Golden Phoenix Panama S.A., the joint venture entity that owns and operates the Santa Rosa gold mine in Panama, it has received from SRK Consulting (U.S.) an initial resource estimate for Mina Santa Rosa.

The Santa Rosa project is a volcanic-hosted epithermal gold-silver deposit previously operated as an open pit-heap leach operation. Production ceased in 1999 in part because of low gold prices.

SRK Consulting reports an in-situ inferred resource at the former Santa Rosa and ADLM pits totaling 23.1 million metric tonnes at 0.90 grams/tonne gold, for a contained 669,000 ounces of gold at a 0.30 g/t gold cutoff. The resource also contains an average grade of 2.87 g/t silver for a contained 2.1 million ounces of silver.

John Bolanos, Golden Phoenix's vice president of exploration, remarks: "In addition to SRK's inferred resource estimate of 669,000 contained ounces of
gold, the Santa Rosa project has an additional unspecified volume of mineralized material on former heap leach pads throughout the property. We expect to begin assessing this additional material in the near future."

For the company's full statement, including a table detailing the resources at Santa Rose, please visit:

http://goldenphoenix.us/press-release/golden-phoenix-receives-initial-ni...



Gold and Silver Mining Stocks Tops Might Be Just Around the Corner

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 01:37 AM PST

This December gold prices swooned by more than 10 per cent in their biggest monthly fall since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. For some insecure gold investors it was like a bad dream. They were happy to wake up to a bright, crisp January whose performance was more than enough to warm the heart of any gold investor. It was the metal's strongest starting month in 32 years giving a resounding answer to those who wondered if the 11-year rally in gold had ended (and they always seem to come out of the woodwork every time gold experiences a correction.)


Ty Andros says the Dollar is Facing an Extinction Event–02-04-2012

Posted: 04 Feb 2012 12:25 AM PST

Ty Andros of www.Traderview.com, a speaker at FreedomFest's Global Financial Summit, believes that the economic system and the Dollar as it presently exists are facing an extinction event. Not that humanity is, these currency shifts have taken place many times before and will continue. They are simply part of human existence and no matter how we try, we cannot change that reality.

The solution is simply to understand where we are in the cycle and invest your resources accordingly. Precious metals are certainly an insurance policy against the resulting chaos and Ty thinks that Silver is your greatest ally in protecting and building wealth. As a believer in the Austrian School of Economists, Ty says that the current crisis was long ago foreseen, and is unavoidable. Better to be prepared than to be surprised.

Please send your questions to KL@KerryLutz.com or call us 347-460-LUTZ.


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Things

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 11:23 PM PST

The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! February 04, 2012 04:08 AM [LIST] [*]The stock market rallied on Friday on the back of supposed good news on the employment front. But how did the good news come about. Like so much else the government does (and doesn’t do), with smoke and mirrors. [*]It’s not if a major military conflict becomes front page news in the Middle East, but when? The markets haven’t even begun to discount such actions. [*]Drifting apart [*]Getting back to the gold standard [*]Politically incorrect but I wholeheartedly*agree [*]The pack leaders: gold juniors [/LIST] [url]http://www.grandich.com/[/url] grandich.com...


Have Gold Investors Become Too Bullish? Ask The Same Question At $5,000

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 11:02 PM PST

Have too many investors gotten overly bullish on gold? After a stunning advance of almost $200 per ounce from last year's closing price, some are asking if gold has gotten ahead of itself.  After advancing almost nonstop since the beginning of the year, gold sold off sharply, dropping by $32.50 to close in New York [...]


The Feds BFF

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 06:16 PM PST

Bullion Vault


Peter Schiff Says 1-2 Years At Most Before The Big Crash Comes–02-03-2012

Posted: 03 Feb 2012 03:21 PM PST

We caught up with Peter Schiff of EuroPacific Capital at FreedomFest's Global Economic Summit in the Bahamas. Peter is never shy about voicing his opinion about the impending crash of the US Dollar and the fiat monetary regime. While he's been warning us about the inevitable collapse, he's putting himself on the line now and believes that time is running short. He expects the event to occur within the next 1-2 years and believes that in addition to living on borrowed money, the government is also living on borrowed time.

As he sees it, interest rates have been suppressed for so long, that they have no place to go but up. Once this occurs, printing and borrowing to somehow achieve solvency will come to an end and then the political establishment is going to have to get serious about controlling spending and ending debt based economics. The unfortunate result will be a decrease in American living standards, however, there is a silver lining. And that is, should the Country adopt sound economic policies, we will rapidly emerge from the quagmire as an opportunity based economy once again.

Please send your questions to KL@KerryLutz.com or call us 347-460-LUTZ.


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