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Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Gold World News Flash

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Gold World News Flash


End the TSA

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:46 PM PST

Even if you can donate $1, every dollar counts. Lets give money to the man who has risked his...


Sovereigns Declare War on US Dollar

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:02 PM PST

Neptune Global


Murray Pollitt: Gold is the uninvited guest

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 04:40 PM PST

12:30a ET Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Resource broker and market analyst Murray Pollitt of Pollitt & Co. in Toronto writes in his January market letter that central bank price suppression has devastated the gold industry and dramatically reduced supply just when currencies are blowing up and taxes and geopolitical risk are reducing supply as well. Pollitt thinks 2012 will be the year when the chickens come home to roost. His January letter is titled "The Uninvited Guest" and it's posted at GATA's Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/MurrayPollitt-01-18-2012.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


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Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



Join GATA here:

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investme...

California Investment Conference
Saturday-Sunday, February 11-12, 2012
Hyatt Grand Champions Resort
Indian Wells, California, USA

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe...

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Prophecy Coal (TSX: PCY) Wins Positive Feasibility Study
for the 600-MW Chandgana Power Plant in Mongolia

Company Press Release
January 17, 2012

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Coal Corp. (TSX: PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) has received a positive feasibility study for the company's 600-megawatt Chandgana Mine-Mouth Power Project in central Mongolia. The report was independently prepared by Ralf Thomsen, project manager at Steag, a German firm specializing in the planning, financing, construction, and operation of highly efficient thermal power plants for fossil fuels.

The study covers technical specifications, deployment, and financial analysis of a 4x150-mw thermal power plant to be built adjacent to Prophecy's Chandgana Tal coal deposit, which contains 140 million tonnes of measured coal. Last year the power plant received a construction license and the coal deposit received a mining license. Engineering, procurement, and construction management selection and project financing discussion have begun and are expected to be concluded this year.

Construction is planned to start in April 2013, with the first 150-mw unit being commissioned in October 2015 and subsequent units to start in April 2016, October 2016, and April 2017. With proper maintenance the project will have 30 years of commercial operation.

For the complete statement from the company, including maps and charts, please visit:

http://www.prophecycoal.com/news_2011_jan17_prophecy_receives_power_plan...


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Turk and Embry interviewed by King World News

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 04:19 PM PST

12:22a ET Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News that a Greek debt default is imminent and Greece couldn't pay even a renegotiated debt anyway:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/1/24_Tu...

And Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells King that people seeking to buy dips in gold now aren't getting any, because gold was driven down too far in the paper market at the end of 2011:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/1/25_Jo...

Embry will be keynote speaker at the California Investment Conference at the beautiful Hyatt Grand Champions Resort in Indian Wells, California, just down the street from Palm Springs, on Saturday and Sunday, February 11-12. GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and your secretary/treasurer will be there too, as well as Solari Inc. investment adviser and former GATA board member Catherine Austin Fitts. See the conference information below.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy Coal (TSX: PCY) Wins Positive Feasibility Study
for the 600-MW Chandgana Power Plant in Mongolia

Company Press Release
January 17, 2012

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Coal Corp. (TSX: PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) has received a positive feasibility study for the company's 600-megawatt Chandgana Mine-Mouth Power Project in central Mongolia. The report was independently prepared by Ralf Thomsen, project manager at Steag, a German firm specializing in the planning, financing, construction, and operation of highly efficient thermal power plants for fossil fuels.

The study covers technical specifications, deployment, and financial analysis of a 4x150-mw thermal power plant to be built adjacent to Prophecy's Chandgana Tal coal deposit, which contains 140 million tonnes of measured coal. Last year the power plant received a construction license and the coal deposit received a mining license. Engineering, procurement, and construction management selection and project financing discussion have begun and are expected to be concluded this year.

Construction is planned to start in April 2013, with the first 150-mw unit being commissioned in October 2015 and subsequent units to start in April 2016, October 2016, and April 2017. With proper maintenance the project will have 30 years of commercial operation.

For the complete statement from the company, including maps and charts, please visit:

http://www.prophecycoal.com/news_2011_jan17_prophecy_receives_power_plan...



Join GATA here:

California Investment Conference
Saturday-Sunday, February 11-12, 2012
Hyatt Grand Champions Resort
Indian Wells, California, USA

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/california-investment-confe...

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



Guest Post: The Loan: An Exchange Of Wealth For Income

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 04:12 PM PST

Submitted by Keith Warner

The Loan: An Exchange Of Wealth For Income

As the title of this essay suggests, a loan is an exchange of wealth for income.  Like everything else in a free market (imagine happier days of yore), it is a voluntary trade.  Contrary to the endemic language of victimization, both parties regard themselves as gaining thereby, or else they would not enter into the transaction.

In a loan, one party is the borrower and the other is the lender.  Mechanically, it is very simple.  The lender gives the borrower money and the borrower agrees to pay interest on the outstanding balance and to repay the principle.

As with many principles in economics, one can shed light on a trade by looking back in history to a time before the trade existed and considering how the trade developed.

It is part of the nature of being a human that one is born unable to work, living on the surplus produced by one's parents.  One grows up and then one can work for a time.  And then one becomes old and infirm, living but not able to work.  If one wishes not to starve to death in old age, one can have lots of children and hope that they will care for their parents in their old age.  Or, one can produce more than one consumes and hoard the difference.

One discovers that certain goods are better for hoarding than others.  Beyond a little food for the next winter season, one cannot hoard very much.  One of the uses of the monetary commodity is to carry value over time.  So one uses a part of one's weekly income to buy, for example, silver.  And over the years, one accumulates a pile of silver.  Then, when one is no longer able to work, one can sell the silver a little at a time to buy food, clothing, fuel, etc.

Like direct barter trade, this is inefficient.  And there is the risk of outliving one's hoard.  So at some point, a long time ago, they discovered lending.  Lending makes possible the concept of saving, as distinct from hoarding.  It is as significant a change as when people discovered money and solved the problem of "coincidence of wants".  This is for the same reason: direct exchange is replaced by indirect exchange and thereby made much more efficient.

With this new innovation, one can lend one's silver hoard in old age and get an income from the interest payments.  One can budget to live on the interest, with no risk of running out of money.  That is, one can exchange one's wealth for income.

If there is a lender, there must also be a borrower or there is no trade.  Who is the borrower?  He is typically someone young, who has an income and an opportunity to grow his income.  But the opportunity—for example, to build his own shop—requires capital that he does not have and does not want to spend half his working years accumulating.  The trade is therefore mutually beneficial.  Neither is "exploiting" the other, and neither is a victim.  Both gain from the deal, or else they would not agree to it.  The lender needs the income and the borrower needs the wealth.  They agree on an interest rate, a term, and an amortization schedule and the deal is consummated.

I want to emphasize that we are still contemplating the world long before the advent of the bank.  There is still the problem of "coincidence of wants" with regard to lending; the old man with the hoard must somehow come across the young man with the income and the opportunity.  The young man must have a need for an amount equal to what the old man wants to lend (or an amount much smaller so that the old man can lend the remainder to another young man).  The old man cannot diversify easily, and therefore his credit risk is unduly concentrated in the one young man's business.  And bid-ask spreads on interest rates are very wide, and thus whichever party needs the other more urgently (typically the borrower) is at a large disadvantage.

Of course the very next innovation that they discovered is that one need not hoard silver one's whole career and offer to lend it only when one retires.  One can lend even while one is working to earn interest and let it compound.  This innovation lead to the creation of banks.

But before we get to the bank, I want to drill a little more deeply into the structure of money and credit that develops.

Before the loan, we had only money (i.e. specie).  After the loan, we have a more complex structure.  The lender has a paper asset; he is the creditor of the young man and his business who must pay him specie in the future.  But the lender does not have the money any more.  The borrower has the money, but only temporarily.  He will typically spend the money.  In our example, he will hire the various laborers to clear a plot of land, build a building and he will buy tools and inventory.

What will those laborers and vendors do with the money?  Likely they will keep some of it, spend some of it… and lend some of it.  That's right.  The proceeds that come from what began as a loan from someone's hoard have been disbursed into the economy and eventually land in the hands of someone who lends them again!  The "same" money is being lent again!

And what will the next borrower do with it?  Spend it.  And what will those who earn it do?  Spend some, keep some, and lend some.  Again.

There is an expansion of credit!  There is no particular limit to how far it can expand.  In fact, it will develop iteratively into the same topology (mathematical structure) as one observes with fractional reserve banking under a proper, unadulterated gold standard!

Without banks, there are two concepts that are not applicable yet.  First is "reserve ratio".  Each person is free to lend up to 100% of his money if he wishes, though most people would not do that in most circumstances.

And second is duration mismatch.  Since each lender is lending his own money, by definition and by nature he is lending it for precisely as long as he means to.  And if he makes a mistake, only he will bear the consequences.  If one lends for 10 years duration, and a year later one realizes that one needs the money, one must go to the market to try to find someone who will buy the loan.  And then discover the other side of that large bid-ask spread, as one may take a loss doing this.

Now, let's fast forward to the advent of the investment bank.  Like everyone else in the free market, the bank must do something to add value or else it will not find willing trading partners.  What does the bank do?

As I hinted above, the bank is the market maker.  The market maker narrows the bid-ask spread, which benefits everyone.  The bank does this by standardizing loans into bonds, and the bank stands ready to buy or sell such bonds.  The bank also aggregates bonds across multiple lenders and across multiple borrowers.  This solves the problem of excessive credit risk concentration, coincidence of wants (i.e. size matching), and saves both lenders and borrowers enormous amounts of time.  And of course if either needs to get out of a deal when circumstances change, the bank makes a liquid market.

The bank must be careful to protect its own solvency in case of credit risk greater than it assumed.  This is the reason for keeping some of its capital in reserve!  If the bank lent 100% of its funds, then it would be bankrupt if any loan ever defaulted.

What the bank must not do, what it has no right to do, is lend its depositors' funds for longer than they expressly intended.  If a depositor wants to lend for 5 years, it is not the right of the bank to lend that depositor's money for 10!  The bank has no right to declare, "well, we have a reserve ratio greater than our estimated credit risk and therefore we are safe to borrow short from our depositors to lend long"

Not only has the bank no way to know what reserve ratio will be proof against a run on the bank, but it is inevitable that a run will occur.  This is because the depositors think they will be getting their money back, but the bank is concealing the fact that they won't behind an opaque balance sheet and a large operation.  So, sooner or later, depositors need their money for something and the bank cannot honor its obligations.  So the bank must sell bonds in quantity.  If other banks are in the same situation, the bond market suddenly goes "no bid".

The bank has no legal right and no moral right to lend a demand deposit or to lend a time deposit for one day longer than its duration.  And even then, the bank has no mathematical expectation that it can get away with it forever.

Like every other actor in the market (and more broadly, in civilization) the bank adds enormous value to everyone it transacts with, provided it acts honestly.  If a bank chooses to act dishonestly (or there is a central bank that centrally plans money, credit, interest, and discount and forces all banks to play dirty) then it can destroy value rather than creating it.

Unfortunately, in 2012 the world is in this sorry state.  It is not the nature of banks or banking per se, it is not the nature of borrowing and lending per se, it is not the nature of fractional reserves per se.  It is duration mismatch, central planning, counterfeit credit, buyers of last/only resort, falling interest rates, and a lack of any extinguisher of debt that are the causes of our monetary ills.


John Embry - Gold is the Cure to Epic Monetary Debasement

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 04:04 PM PST

With gold holding on to gains above the $1,650 level, today King World News interviewed John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of the $10 billion strong Sprott Asset Management, to get his take on where he sees gold headed from here. Embry told KWN that we are witnessing monetary debasement of epic proportions. Here is what Embry had to say about the situation: "My attitude is very simple.  If you don't understand the dynamics of this market and what is really going on, your chance of making any money in the gold and silver markets is zero.  The influence of the paper markets is maligned.  If you want to trade in those markets against the boys on the other side, you really are putting your net worth at risk."


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Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Modestly Lower

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 04:00 PM PST

Gold fell to as low as $1661.40 by about 9AM EST before it bounced back higher midday, but it still ended with a loss of 0.71%. Silver slipped to $31.874 before it also rebounded, but it still ended with a loss of 0.93%.


Brevan Howard Made Money In 2011 Betting On Market Stupidity, Sees "Substantial Dislocation" In 2012

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 03:53 PM PST

While Paulson's star was finally setting in 2011, that of mega macro fund Brevan Howard was rising, and has been rising for years by never posting a negative return since 2003. The $34.2 billion fund, now about double the size of John Paulson's, returned 12.12% in a year marked by abysmal hedge fund performance. But how did it make money? Simple - by taking advantage of the same permabullish market myopia that marked the beginning of 2011, and that has gripped the market once again. "The Fund's large gains during the third quarter were due predominantly to pressing the thematic view that markets were ignoring clear signs of economic slowdown and were not correctly pricing the probability of central bank accommodation, particularly the reversal of the ECB rate hikes in April and July." Not to mention the €800 billion ECB liquidity accommodation that started in July and has continued since. So yes: those betting again that the market correction is overdue, will once again be proven right Why? Because "we are about to witness an unprecedented policy move. In the US, Eurozone and UK, fiscal austerity is being prescribed as the cure following the bursting of the credit bubble and to overcome the malaise following a balance-sheet recession. Unfortunately, there is no historical example of when this approach has been successful." As for looking into the future "we continue to believe that markets remain at risk of  substantial dislocation."

Lastly, for all those who believe Europe is "priced in", the right thing to say it is not priced at all: "One risk that we are particularly careful to avoid is betting on the outcome of the Eurozone crisis. Its resolution will ultimately be a political decision and we have no real edge in understanding which way the politicians may go. For us, the better trade is to look to the macroeconomic picture and position around macroeconomic developments rather than try to second guess the politicians." Alas, macroeconomic developments are now more defined by politicians than ever. We, unlike Brevan Howard, instead would bet on the stupidity of these politicians, and the certainty that as usual, they will screw things up, only to be bailed out by immense printing as the usual last ditch resort. Which means that stupidity hedging precious metals, are and continue to be since March 2009, our preferred "investment" category.

From the letter:

As we wrote in the Fund's Annual Investment Manager Review this time last year, our strategy for 2011 was to strike a better balance between harvesting modest short-term profits and pressing large thematic trades. This strategy proved successful.

During the first half of the year, a balance between general optimism on the state of the global economy on the one hand and fear of possible large  event risks on the other hand kept markets in a broad trading range; this allowed the Fund to make steady, modest gains by trading tactically. For example, the Fund held both long and short positions in European interest rates during this period, depending on the  market's probabilistic pricing of future ECB rate hikes at any one point in time.

The Fund's long interest rate volatility positions also benefited from this environment, generating steady returns through gamma trading. Tactical opportunities in other areas including yield curves, bond versus swap spreads, commodities and credit also generated positive returns.

The Fund's large gains during the third quarter were due predominantly to pressing the thematic view that markets were ignoring clear signs of economic slowdown and were not correctly pricing the probability of central bank accommodation, particularly the reversal of the ECB rate hikes in April and July. The Fund took significant long positions in G7 interest rates, with a concentration in European short-term and US medium-term rates.

As the economic data softened over the summer and the euro crisis escalated, forward interest rates fell sharply in G7 and the Fund's positions made substantial profits. The Fund's structural volatility positions also paid off from this move, as interest rate option deltas were allowed to expand, thereby increasing the size of the Fund's positioning during the rally. The decision to position early and in size for a decline in interest rates was the primary driver of performance in 2011.

Apart from the basic long rates position, the Fund profited from gains made across several strategies during the third quarter including bond versus swap spreads, libor basis, foreign exchange, commodity and equity trading, while credit proved modestly unprofitable. The Fund's general positioning, although reduced, was maintained into the fourth quarter, resulting in further gains in November which were partially offset by small losses in October and December as markets settled once again into a more mean-reverting, tactical environment, with interest rates and the euro initially rising before resuming their downward path.

I am particularly pleased to report that a meaningful part the Fund's return was generated by newly recruited traders. At the end of 2010 and in the early part of 2011, the closure of bank prop activities caused by the introduction of the Volcker rules allowed Brevan Howard to add 13 new risk takers to our trading group and 3 new people to our research efforts. These additions made a material contribution to our results in 2011. Brevan Howard has never had a deeper, broader or more talented investment team.

In 2011, we took the unusual step of asking the Fund's Board to return some capital to investors. This was done simply to alleviate ongoing investor concerns about the Fund's size and not because of liquidity issues or a poor opportunity set.

Following the Fund's lacklustre performance in 2010, there was a degree of investor unease over the size of the Fund and whether it was an impediment to performance. It wasn't. As we wrote in this letter last year, the reason 2010 was lacklustre was because the three major themes we positioned for in that year proved unprofitable.

Nonetheless, in order to assuage this investor concern, we undertook to return capital if the Fund got larger than $25bn. As a result of strong performance, the Fund exceeded the $25bn AUM level during the summer and, in line with our undertaking, we announced that we would return almost $2bn to investors. Having done so there are no plans at this time to return further capital. However, as always, we will monitor the size of the Fund, the opportunity set, our trading capacity and the market liquidity on an ongoing basis to ensure that we are comfortable with the size of the Fund. Looking forward, we continue to believe that markets remain at risk of  substantial dislocation. The European sovereign and banking issues appear to be approaching a head and may result in extreme outcomes (in either direction). The US fiscal situation remains highly strained and large imbalances remain in emerging market  economies. In short, the issues we raised in last year's letter are still unresolved.

In light of the ongoing binary risks, we have taken decisive action to focus on liquid, uncomplicated strategies, to increase the Fund's cash liquidity and to ensure that the exposure of the Fund to potentially vulnerable counterparties is kept to a minimum. One risk that we are particularly careful to avoid is betting on the outcome of the Eurozone crisis. Its resolution will ultimately be a political decision  and we have no real edge in understanding which way the politicians may go. For us, the better trade is to look to the macroeconomic picture and position around macroeconomic developments rather than try to second guess the politicians.

As we start 2012 the Fund's positioning is once again quite tactical, with the only structural position being long volatility across multiple asset classes, in particular interest rates.

I want to thank, as I do each year in this letter, all of our investors for their continued support and I assure you once again that all of us at Brevan Howard will do our utmost to deliver another profitable outcome in 2012.

Sincerely,

Alan Howard

Market Commentary

In terms of market sentiment and the macroeconomic outlook, 2011 was a year of two halves for the US. In the first half of the year, markets and commentators expressed optimistic views about the future. Equities hit a high during the second quarter, with major indices up almost 10%. At the same time, buoyant forecasts were relying upon increasingly strained rationalisations in the face of worse-than-expected data. In the third quarter, another EU summit failed to deliver the measures required to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis and the normally pro forma vote to increase the US debt ceiling turned into a fiasco that cost the US its AAA credit rating. In response to these developments, investor and consumer sentiment collapsed, equities swung to 10% losses on the year, and the economy barely avoided a recession. Investors fled to the traditional safe havens of US Treasuries, German Bunds, the US dollar, and the Japanese yen.

By the end of the year, the US economy regained its footing, led by brisk business capital expenditure, improved consumer spending, and moderate gains in payroll employment. In addition, inflationary pressures eased, as total and core consumer inflation fell below an annualised rate of 1% in the fourth quarter, import and producer prices declined, and longer-term inflation expectations drifted into the lower end of their range for the last decade.

Additional monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve ("Fed") and European Central Bank ("ECB") played a role in stabilising the economy in the second half of the year. In September, the Fed rolled out a Treasury duration extension programme and renewed its purchases of mortgage-backed securities. As a result, the Fed committed to buying virtually all of the net issuance of longer-term Treasury duration through to the middle of 2012, a move that, if nothing else, signalled that monetary policy would be utilised if the economy threatened to rollover. Despite the rollercoaster ride, equity markets were largely unchanged in 2011, Treasury interest rates ended at historic lows and economic growth registered somewhere near its long-term trend.

Looking to 2012, investors appear to be expecting moderate growth, inflation and financial market returns. At Brevan Howard, we expect the continuation of enormous uncertainty. On the one hand, policymakers appear to have a much-improved grasp of the dangers posed by the banking and sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Furthermore, we are one year further along the long road of deleveraging household balance sheets and repairing the housing market. On the other hand, we are about to witness an unprecedented policy move. In the US, Eurozone and UK, fiscal austerity is being prescribed as the cure following the bursting of the credit bubble and to overcome the malaise following a balance-sheet recession. Unfortunately, there is no historical example of when this approach has been successful. In the Great Depression, economies grew to the extent they pursued Keynesian stimulus and sizable depreciations in the exchange rate of their currencies. Presently, enthusiasm for additional stimulus appears to have come to an end and the room for competitive devaluation appears limited given that the largest economies are in a liquidity trap and emerging markets are slowing markedly. Financial markets and the economy are at the mercy of the convergence of these positive and negative forces in 2012. As such, developments in 2012 look set to mirror the ups and downs of 2011.

h/t Value walk


Why Did the Baltic Dry Index Collapse? Here?s Why

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 03:50 PM PST

The Baltic Dry Index is generally viewed as a leading indicator of global economic activity as dry bulk primarily consists of commodities such as building materials, coal, metallic ores and grain. My research, however,*indicates that global manufacturing demand has very little to do with it but, rather, Chinese manufacturing demand – but not the actual level of manufacturing as*measured by the CFLP Manufacturing PMI. [Let me explain.] [INDENT]So says Prieur du Plessis (www.investmentpostcards.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* which is of such a nature that, as editor editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) I present a live hyperlink directly to the article rather than providing an edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragra...


There is a MUCH Better Way to Own Gold Than Via ETFs and ETRs ? Here?s How

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 03:50 PM PST

Late last year the Royal Canadian Mint intoduced an Exchange Traded Receipt (ETR) in another long line of paper-gold investments that are now trading on securities exchanges worldwide. It, like all of the other programs, comes with a slew of fees and risks. [Why not*take personal physical possession of your gold or silver, store it in an allocated and secure non-government vault, be able to have*any or all of it shipped to you immediately upon request - and for dramatically less than any ETF or ETR?**Let me explain how easily it is to do just that.] Words: 1601 So says Chris Horlacher (www.MapleLeafMetals.ca) in edited excerpts from his original article*.** [INDENT]Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and ...


Sprott's David Franklin Talks Gold & Silver Stocks

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 03:25 PM PST

[Ed. Note: This one's definitely worth a listen. Franlkin addresses the risks of the MF Global debacle starting at 6:25.]

from TheSilverWatch:


Tehran Pushes to Ditch the US Dollar

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 03:08 PM PST

The Demise of the Petrodollar

from CaseyResearch.com:

The official line from the United States and the European Union is that Tehran must be punished for continuing its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon. The punishment: sanctions on Iran's oil exports, which are meant to isolate Iran and depress the value of its currency to such a point that the country crumbles.

But that line doesn't make sense, and the sanctions will not achieve their goals. Iran is far from isolated and its friends – like India – will stand by the oil-producing nation until the US either backs down or acknowledges the real matter at hand. That matter is the American dollar and its role as the global reserve currency.

The short version of the story is that a 1970s deal cemented the US dollar as the only currency to buy and sell crude oil, and from that monopoly on the all-important oil trade the US dollar slowly but surely became the reserve currency for global trades in most commodities and goods. Massive demand for US dollars ensued, pushing the dollar's value up, up, and away. In addition, countries stored their excess US dollars savings in US Treasuries, giving the US government a vast pool of credit from which to draw.

Read More @ CaseyResearch.com


(Miserable) State of the Union

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 03:05 PM PST

by Andrew Hoffman, MilesFranklin.com:

Another Monday passed, another financial market "LOCKDOWN" in front of a blizzard of "events," which I say in quotes because they will ALL be exacerbated dramatically by simultaneous, premeditated Cartel/QE/PPT/ESF manipulation to produce the desired psychological effect. Not that I am sure they will be successful in such efforts, particularly in the silver market which could do ANYTHING as Eric Sprott seeks to source ten million PHYSICAL ounces, but you can be sure PERCEPTION management, or as Jim Sinclair would call it, "MOPE," will be front and center, to be discussed below.

Let start with today's (Monday's) PM market, where the Cartel was determined to invoke one of its cardinal rules, to NEVER allow gold, silver, and the mining shares to perform well simultaneously. Actually, scratch that, as the shares now appear unable to EVER perform well. You can bet that any time a minor negative piece of news comes out, such as mild dilution from Pan American's proposed acquisition of Minefinders, and the Cartel will be there to double up the decline to make it look much worse. That is why KGC, NEM, and HL were obliterated in the past two weeks, and why PAAS was slaughtered 12% today.

Read More @ MilesFranklin.com


George Soros Worried about Survival!

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 03:01 PM PST

by Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog.com:

The World Economic Forum (January 25-29) in Davos, Switzerland, is probably the most important ever. The world is closer to another financial meltdown that could crush the tenuous global economy. Many experts have said the next meltdown will be bigger than 2008. On top of the list of problems to tackle is the sovereign debt crisis and insolvent European banks. Last year, Davos participants said the world needed $100 trillion to "support growth." I wonder if that figure will increase this year.

Now, billionaire George Soros is not worried about a financial meltdown but just his "survival!" He thinks things could get so out of hand that there could be great upheavals in societies around the planet. He said he was worried about "danger . . . and evil." The Daily Beast reported yesterday, "Has the great short seller gone soft? Well, yes. Sitting in his 33rd-floor corner office high above Seventh Avenue in New York, preparing for his trip to Davos, he is more concerned with surviving than staying rich. "At times like these, survival is the most important thing," he says, peering through his owlish glasses and brushing wisps of gray hair off his forehead. He doesn't just mean it's time to protect your assets. He means it's time to stave off disaster. As he sees it, the world faces one of the most dangerous periods of modern history—a period of "evil." Europe is confronting a descent into chaos and conflict. In America he predicts riots on the streets that will lead to a brutal clampdown that will dramatically curtail civil liberties. The global economic system could even collapse altogether." (Click here for the complete Daily Beast story on Soros.)

Read More @ USAWatchdog.com


George Soros Predicts Class War and Riots

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 02:58 PM PST

George Soros, the billionaire investor, has predicted riots on the streets and global class war as the economic downturn results in a new "age of fallibility".

by Rosa Prince, Telegraph.co.uk:


In an interview ahead of a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the 81-year-old said that for the first time in his career he was baffled by the current state of the market, and saw no way to avoid a violent crisis which at its worst could result in the total collapse of the financial system.

Known as the "man who broke the Bank of England" after betting against the pound on Black Wednesday in 1994, Mr Soros plans to use his Davos address to issue a stern warning that he now considers it "more likely than not" that Greece will default in 2012. And unless Europe's leaders do more to stop it, the euro is likely to collapse with a devastating impact on the rest of the world, he will add.

The financier compared the crisis to the collapse of the Soviet empire and the Great Depression, adding that the old belief in the power of the market to prevent turmoil could no longer be relied upon.

Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk


“The Dollar Vigilante” Jeff Berwick's Speech at the Resource Investment Conference

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 02:22 PM PST

from TheSilverWatch :

"The Dollar Vigilante" Jeff Berwick's Speech at the Resource Investment Conference
And here's my recent interview with Jeff, as recorded on his end via Skype:


Gold – The New Offical Reserve Currency

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 02:21 PM PST

It would seem as each day passes that gold is exerting itself as the new reserve currency. India has agreed to pay Iran in gold to get access to its oil. China has indicated it is considering the same. As noted by RT.com, this will increase the demand for gold and hence increase the price. Who was it that coined the term, "he who has the gold makes the rules"…

Related article here from rt.com


Full Text And Word Cloud Of Obama's State Of The Union

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 01:21 PM PST

Here is the text of President Barack Obama's State of the Union Address as prepared for delivery at 9 p.m. ET.

"Jobs" 33 vs. "Fat Cats" 0

Rich 3 vs Poor 1

Hope 2 vs Unicorns 0

Change 9 vs Tooth-Fairy 0

Mortgages 5 vs Apple 0

Main Street 1 vs Wall Street 3

DEBT CEILING 0

 

Here is Obama's SOTU word cloud...

And here is the last SOTU by Dubya:

Live speech:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/themes/whitehouse/img/facebook_b...) no-repeat; padding-top: 13px; height: 30px; float: left;">JOIN THE LIVE CHAT

 

 

OBAMA: Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, members of Congress, distinguished guests, and fellow Americans:
 
     Last month, I went to Andrews Air Force Base and welcomed home some of our last troops to serve in Iraq. Together, we offered a final, proud salute to the colors under which more than a million of our fellow citizens fought - and several thousand gave their lives.
 
     We gather tonight knowing that this generation of heroes has made the United States safer and more respected around the world. For the first time in nine years, there are no Americans fighting in Iraq. For the first time in two decades, Osama bin Laden is not a threat to this country. Most of al Qaeda's top lieutenants have been defeated. The Taliban's momentum has been broken, and some troops in Afghanistan have begun to come home.
 
     These achievements are a testament to the courage, selflessness, and teamwork of America's Armed Forces. At a time when too many of our institutions have let us down, they exceed all expectations. They're not consumed with personal ambition. They don't obsess over their differences. They focus on the mission at hand. They work together.
 
     Imagine what we could accomplish if we followed their example. Think about the America within our reach: A country that leads the world in educating its people. An America that attracts a new generation of high-tech manufacturing and high-paying jobs. A future where we're in control of our own energy, and our security and prosperity aren't so tied to unstable parts of the world. An economy built to last, where hard work pays off, and responsibility is rewarded.
 
     We can do this. I know we can, because we've done it before. At the end of World War II, when another generation of heroes returned home from combat, they built the strongest economy and middle class the world has ever known. My grandfather, a veteran of Patton's Army, got the chance to go to college on the GI Bill. My grandmother, who worked on a bomber assembly line, was part of a workforce that turned out the best products on Earth.
 
     The two of them shared the optimism of a Nation that had triumphed over a depression and fascism. They understood they were part of something larger; that they were contributing to a story of success that every American had a chance to share - the basic American promise that if you worked hard, you could do well enough to raise a family, own a home, send your kids to college, and put a little away for retirement.
 
     The defining issue of our time is how to keep that promise alive. No challenge is more urgent. No debate is more important. We can either settle for a country where a shrinking number of people do really well, while a growing number of Americans barely get by. Or we can restore an economy where everyone gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share, and everyone plays by the same set of rules. What's at stake are not Democratic values or Republican values, but American values. We have to reclaim them.
 
     Let's remember how we got here. Long before the recession, jobs and manufacturing began leaving our shores. Technology made businesses more efficient, but also made some jobs obsolete. Folks at the top saw their incomes rise like never before, but most hardworking Americans struggled with costs that were growing, paychecks that weren't, and personal debt that kept piling up.
 
     In 2008, the house of cards collapsed. We learned that mortgages had been sold to people who couldn't afford or understand them. Banks had made huge bets and bonuses with other people's money. Regulators had looked the other way, or didn't have the authority to stop the bad behavior.
 
     It was wrong. It was irresponsible. And it plunged our economy into a crisis that put millions out of work, saddled us with more debt, and left innocent, hard-working Americans holding the bag. In the six months before I took office, we lost nearly four million jobs. And we lost another four million before our policies were in full effect.
 
     Those are the facts. But so are these. In the last 22 months, businesses have created more than three million jobs. Last year, they created the most jobs since 2005. American manufacturers are hiring again, creating jobs for the first time since the late 1990s. Together, we've agreed to cut the deficit by more than $2 trillion. And we've put in place new rules to hold Wall Street accountable, so a crisis like that never happens again.
 
     The state of our Union is getting stronger. And we've come too far to turn back now. As long as I'm President, I will work with anyone in this chamber to build on this momentum. But I intend to fight obstruction with action, and I will oppose any effort to return to the very same policies that brought on this economic crisis in the first place.
 
     No, we will not go back to an economy weakened by outsourcing, bad debt, and phony financial profits. Tonight, I want to speak about how we move forward, and lay out a blueprint for an economy that's built to last - an economy built on American manufacturing, American energy, skills for American workers, and a renewal of American values.
 
     This blueprint begins with American manufacturing.
 
     On the day I took office, our auto industry was on the verge of collapse. Some even said we should let it die. With a million jobs at stake, I refused to let that happen. In exchange for help, we demanded responsibility. We got workers and automakers to settle their differences. We got the industry to retool and restructure. Today, General Motors is back on top as the world's number one automaker. Chrysler has grown faster in the U.S. than any major car company. Ford is investing billions in U.S. plants and factories. And together, the entire industry added nearly 160,000 jobs.
 
     We bet on American workers. We bet on American ingenuity. And tonight, the American auto industry is back.
 
     What's happening in Detroit can happen in other industries. It can happen in Cleveland and Pittsburgh and Raleigh. We can't bring back every job that's left our shores. But right now, it's getting more expensive to do business in places like China. Meanwhile, America is more productive. A few weeks ago, the CEO of Master Lock told me that it now makes business sense for him to bring jobs back home. Today, for the first time in fifteen years, Master Lock's unionized plant in Milwaukee is running at full capacity.
 
     So we have a huge opportunity, at this moment, to bring manufacturing back. But we have to seize it. Tonight, my message to business leaders is simple: Ask yourselves what you can do to bring jobs back to your country, and your country will do everything we can to help you succeed.
 
     We should start with our tax code. Right now, companies get tax breaks for moving jobs and profits overseas. Meanwhile, companies that choose to stay in America get hit with one of the highest tax rates in the world. It makes no sense, and everyone knows it.
 
     So let's change it. First, if you're a business that wants to outsource jobs, you shouldn't get a tax deduction for doing it. That money should be used to cover moving expenses for companies like Master Lock that decide to bring jobs home.
 
     Second, no American company should be able to avoid paying its fair share of taxes by moving jobs and profits overseas. From now on, every multinational company should have to pay a basic minimum tax. And every penny should go towards lowering taxes for companies that choose to stay here and hire here.
 
     Third, if you're an American manufacturer, you should get a bigger tax cut. If you're a high-tech manufacturer, we should double the tax deduction you get for making products here. And if you want to relocate in a community that was hit hard when a factory left town, you should get help financing a new plant, equipment, or training for new workers.
 
     My message is simple. It's time to stop rewarding businesses that ship jobs overseas, and start rewarding companies that create jobs right here in America. Send me these tax reforms, and I'll sign them right away.
 
     We're also making it easier for American businesses to sell products all over the world. Two years ago, I set a goal of doubling U.S. exports over five years. With the bipartisan trade agreements I signed into law, we are on track to meet that goal - ahead of schedule. Soon, there will be millions of new customers for American goods in Panama, Colombia, and South Korea. Soon, there will be new cars on the streets of Seoul imported from Detroit, and Toledo, and Chicago.
 
     I will go anywhere in the world to open new markets for American products. And I will not stand by when our competitors don't play by the rules. We've brought trade cases against China at nearly twice the rate as the last administration - and it's made a difference. Over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires. But we need to do more. It's not right when another country lets our movies, music, and software be pirated. It's not fair when foreign manufacturers have a leg up on ours only because they're heavily subsidized.
 
     Tonight, I'm announcing the creation of a Trade Enforcement Unit that will be charged with investigating unfair trade practices in countries like China. There will be more inspections to prevent counterfeit or unsafe goods from crossing our borders. And this Congress should make sure that no foreign company has an advantage over American manufacturing when it comes to accessing finance or new markets like Russia. Our workers are the most productive on Earth, and if the playing field is level, I promise you - America will always win.
 
     I also hear from many business leaders who want to hire in the United States but can't find workers with the right skills. Growing industries in science and technology have twice as many openings as we have workers who can do the job. Think about that - openings at a time when millions of Americans are looking for work.
 
     That's inexcusable. And we know how to fix it.
 
     Jackie Bray is a single mom from North Carolina who was laid off from her job as a mechanic. Then Siemens opened a gas turbine factory in Charlotte, and formed a partnership with Central Piedmont Community College. The company helped the college design courses in laser and robotics training. It paid Jackie's tuition, then hired her to help operate their plant.
 
     I want every American looking for work to have the same opportunity as Jackie did. Join me in a national commitment to train two million Americans with skills that will lead directly to a job. My Administration has already lined up  more companies that want to help. Model partnerships between businesses like Siemens and community colleges in places like Charlotte, Orlando, and Louisville are up and running. Now you need to give more community colleges the resources they need to become community career centers - places that teach people skills that local businesses are looking for right now, from data management to high-tech manufacturing.

     And I want to cut through the maze of confusing training programs, so that from now on, people like Jackie have one program, one website, and one place to go for all the information and help they need. It's time to turn our unemployment system into a reemployment system that puts people to work.
 
     These reforms will help people get jobs that are open today. But to prepare for the jobs of tomorrow, our commitment to skills and education has to start earlier.
 
     For less than one percent of what our Nation spends on education each year, we've convinced nearly every State in the country to raise their standards for teaching and learning - the first time that's happened in a generation.
 
     But challenges remain. And we know how to solve them.
 
     At a time when other countries are doubling down on education, tight budgets have forced States to lay off thousands of teachers. We know a good teacher can increase the lifetime income of a classroom by over $250,000. A great teacher can offer an escape from poverty to the child who dreams beyond his circumstance. Every person in this chamber can point to a teacher who changed the trajectory of their lives. Most teachers work tirelessly, with modest pay, sometimes digging into their own pocket for school supplies - just to make a difference.
 
     Teachers matter. So instead of bashing them, or defending the status quo, let's offer schools a deal. Give them the resources to keep good teachers on the job, and reward the best ones. In return, grant schools flexibility: To teach with creativity and passion; to stop teaching to the test; and to replace teachers who just aren't helping kids learn.

      We also know that when students aren't allowed to walk away from their education, more of them walk the stage to get their diploma. So tonight, I call on every State to require that all students stay in high school until they graduate or turn eighteen.
 
     When kids do graduate, the most daunting challenge can be the cost of college. At a time when Americans owe more in tuition debt than credit card debt, this Congress needs to stop the interest rates on student loans from doubling in July. Extend the tuition tax credit we started that saves middle-class families thousands of dollars. And give more young people the chance to earn their way through college by doubling the number of work-study jobs in the next five years.
 
     Of course, it's not enough for us to increase student aid. We can't just keep subsidizing skyrocketing tuition; we'll run out of money. States also need to do their part, by making higher education a higher priority in their budgets. And colleges and universities have to do their part by working to keep costs down. Recently, I spoke with a group of college presidents who've done just that. Some schools re-design courses to help students finish more quickly. Some use better technology. The point is, it's possible. So let me put colleges and universities on notice: If you can't stop tuition from going up, the funding you get from taxpayers will go down. Higher education can't be a luxury - it's an economic imperative that every family in America should be able to afford.
 
     Let's also remember that hundreds of thousands of talented, hardworking students in this country face another challenge: The fact that they aren't yet American citizens. Many were brought here as small children, are American through and through, yet they live every day with the threat of deportation. Others came more recently, to study business and science and engineering, but as soon as they get their degree, we send them home to invent new products and create new jobs somewhere else.
 
     That doesn't make sense.
 
     I believe as strongly as ever that we should take on illegal immigration. That's why my Administration has put more boots on the border than ever before. That's why there are fewer illegal crossings than when I took office.
 
     The opponents of action are out of excuses. We should be working on comprehensive immigration reform right now. But if election-year politics keeps Congress from acting on a comprehensive plan, let's at least agree to stop expelling responsible young people who want to staff our labs, start new businesses, and defend this country. Send me a law that gives them the chance to earn their citizenship. I will sign it right away.
 
     You see, an economy built to last is one where we encourage the talent and ingenuity of every person in this country. That means women should earn equal pay for equal work. It means we should support everyone who's willing to work; and every risk-taker and entrepreneur who aspires to become the next Steve Jobs.
 
     After all, innovation is what America has always been about. Most new jobs are created in start-ups and small businesses. So let's pass an agenda that helps them succeed. Tear down regulations that prevent aspiring entrepreneurs from getting the financing to grow. Expand tax relief to small businesses that are raising wages and creating good jobs. Both parties agree on these ideas. So put them in a bill, and get it on my desk this year.
 
     Innovation also demands basic research. Today, the discoveries taking place in our federally-financed labs and universities could lead to new treatments that kill cancer cells but leave healthy ones untouched. New lightweight vests for cops and soldiers that can stop any bullet. Don't gut these investments in our budget. Don't let other countries win the race for the future. Support the same kind of research and innovation that led to the computer chip and the Internet; to new American jobs and new American industries.
 
     Nowhere is the promise of innovation greater than in American- made energy. Over the last three years, we've opened millions of new acres for oil and gas exploration, and tonight, I'm directing my Administration to open more than 75 percent of our potential offshore oil and gas resources. Right now, American oil production is the highest that it's been in eight years. That's right - eight years. Not only that - last year, we relied less on foreign oil than in any of the past sixteen years.
 
     But with only 2 percent of the world's oil reserves, oil isn't enough. This country needs an all-out, all-of


MILITARY EXERCISES IN LOS ANGELES

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 01:18 PM PST

First it was Boston, now Los Angeles. The military has thousands of bases in the U.S. where they can conduct training. Instead they are conditioning the masses for a future of military occupation. The signs of economic collapse are increasing. Those in control see it coming. They are preparing for the riots and violence that will [...]


Gold Slides but Remains above Recent Lows

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 01:01 PM PST

courtesy of DailyFX.com January 24, 2012 03:50 PM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Gold has exceeded the 50% retracement of the decline from the November top and focus has shifted to a cluster of resistance near 1700. Aside from round number significance, the 61.8% retracement resides near there as do lows from early December. Short term channel resistance is just above 1700. Bottom Line – flat...


FOOL'S GOLD

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 12:44 PM PST

The rich have always dangled the plum before the great unwashed masses that if you work hard and sacrifice, you too may be rich someday. After decades of this chase after fool's gold, people are starting to realize they are getting screwed worse than a blond $2 hooker. The rich keep getting richer, and there [...]


Jim's Mailbox

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 12:25 PM PST

Gold and Equities, Gold Wins This Cycle CIGA Eric

Gold and global equities will move higher together. Those that have not succumb to short-term fear understand that this move will not be equal. Gold's surge relative US large cap stocks (equities) is not done. Chart 1 and 2 provide an indication of both duration

Continue reading Jim's Mailbox


Precious Metals Mixed as Chinese Growth Softens and India Hikes Bullion Import Taxes

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 11:15 AM PST

Precious metals prices were buffeted last week as news was released of a reduced economic growth rate in China that sparked renewed speculation of near term monetary easing by the People's Bank of China or PBOC. The release of softer Chinese GDP data may have prompted a rally in gold and silver prices as traders increasingly anticipated that the PBOC may move to increase economic production by lowering its benchmark interest rates. Chinese stock prices also generally improved. Nevertheless, these initial gains were soon moderated by selling pressure and gap filling (where technically traders like to see the trade retrace a bit and fill in moves), that emerged in the metals on news that the Indian government would almost double bullion import duties — a move that was expected to dampen demand in the world's top bullion consuming country. Chinese Quarterly GDP Falls Below 9% Level In particular, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics put out its quarterly Gross D...


The Demise of the Petrodollar

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 10:39 AM PST

Synopsis: 

Developments in the world's oil trade reveal that the standoff between the US and Iran may have little, if anything, to do with nukes.


Rumors are swirling that India and Iran are at the negotiating table right now, hammering out a deal to trade oil for gold. Why does that matter, you ask? Only because it strikes at the heart of both the value of the US dollar and today's high-tension standoff with Iran.

Marin Katusa

Chief Energy Investment Strategist
Casey Research


Tehran Pushes to Ditch the US Dollar

The official line from the United States and the European Union is that Tehran must be punished for continuing its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon. The punishment: sanctions on Iran's oil exports, which are meant to isolate Iran and depress the value of its currency to such a point that the country crumbles.

But that line doesn't make sense, and the sanctions will not achieve their goals. Iran is far from isolated and its friends – like India – will stand by the oil-producing nation until the US either backs down or acknowledges the real matter at hand. That matter is the American dollar and its role as the global reserve currency.

The short version of the story is that a 1970s deal cemented the US dollar as the only currency to buy and sell crude oil, and from that monopoly on the all-important oil trade the US dollar slowly but surely became the reserve currency for global trades in most commodities and goods. Massive demand for US dollars ensued, pushing the dollar's value up, up, and away. In addition, countries stored their excess US dollars savings in US Treasuries, giving the US government a vast pool of credit from which to draw.

We know where that situation led – to a US government suffocating in debt while its citizens face stubbornly high unemployment (due in part to the high value of the dollar); a failed real estate market; record personal-debt burdens; a bloated banking system; and a teetering economy. That is not the picture of a world superpower worthy of the privileges gained from having its currency back global trade. Other countries are starting to see that and are slowly but surely moving away from US dollars in their transactions, starting with oil.

If the US dollar loses its position as the global reserve currency, the consequences for America are dire. A major portion of the dollar's valuation stems from its lock on the oil industry – if that monopoly fades, so too will the value of the dollar. Such a major transition in global fiat currency relationships will bode well for some currencies and not so well for others, and the outcomes will be challenging to predict. But there is one outcome that we foresee with certainty: Gold will rise. Uncertainty around paper money always bodes well for gold, and these are uncertain days indeed.

The Petrodollar System

To explain this situation properly, we have to start in 1973. That's when President Nixon asked King Faisal of Saudi Arabia to accept only US dollars as payment for oil and to invest any excess profits in US Treasury bonds, notes, and bills. In exchange, Nixon pledged to protect Saudi Arabian oil fields from the Soviet Union and other interested nations, such as Iran and Iraq. It was the start of something great for the US, even if the outcome was as artificial as the US real-estate bubble and yet constitutes the foundation for the valuation of the US dollar.

By 1975 all of the members of OPEC agreed to sell their oil only in US dollars. Every oil-importing nation in the world started saving their surplus in US dollars so as to be able to buy oil; with such high demand for dollars the currency strengthened. On top of that, many oil-exporting nations like Saudi Arabia spent their US dollar surpluses on Treasury securities, providing a new, deep pool of lenders to support US government spending.

The "petrodollar" system was a brilliant political and economic move. It forced the world's oil money to flow through the US Federal Reserve, creating ever-growing international demand for both US dollars and US debt, while essentially letting the US pretty much own the world's oil for free, since oil's value is denominated in a currency that America controls and prints. The petrodollar system spread beyond oil: the majority of international trade is done in US dollars. That means that from Russia to China, Brazil to South Korea, every country aims to maximize the US-dollar surplus garnered from its export trade to buy oil.

The US has reaped many rewards. As oil usage increased in the 1980s, demand for the US dollar rose with it, lifting the US economy to new heights. But even without economic success at home the US dollar would have soared, because the petrodollar system created consistent international demand for US dollars, which in turn gained in value. A strong US dollar allowed Americans to buy imported goods at a massive discount – the petrodollar system essentially creating a subsidy for US consumers at the expense of the rest of the world. Here, finally, the US hit on a downside: The availability of cheap imports hit the US manufacturing industry hard, and the disappearance of manufacturing jobs remains one of the biggest challenges in resurrecting the US economy today.

There is another downside, a potential threat now lurking in the shadows. The value of the US dollar is determined in large part by the fact that oil is sold in US dollars. If that trade shifts to a different currency, countries around the world won't need all their US money. The resulting sell-off of US dollars would weaken the currency dramatically.

So here's an interesting thought experiment. Everybody says the US goes to war to protect its oil supplies, but doesn't it really go to war to ensure the continuation of the petrodollar system?

The Iraq war provides a good example. Until November 2000, no OPEC country had dared to violate the US dollar-pricing rule, and while the US dollar remained the strongest currency in the world there was also little reason to challenge the system. But in late 2000, France and a few other EU members convinced Saddam Hussein to defy the petrodollar process and sell Iraq's oil for food in euros, not dollars. In the time between then and the March 2003 American invasion of Iraq, several other nations hinted at their interest in non-US dollar oil trading, including Russia, Iran, Indonesia, and even Venezuela. In April 2002, Iranian OPEC representative Javad Yarjani was invited to Spain by the EU to deliver a detailed analysis of how OPEC might at some point sell its oil to the EU for euros, not dollars.

This movement, founded in Iraq, was starting to threaten the dominance of the US dollar as the global reserve currency and petro currency. In March 2003, the US invaded Iraq, ending the oil-for-food program and its euro payment program.

There are many other historic examples of the US stepping in to halt a movement away from the petrodollar system, often in covert ways. In February 2011 Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), called for a new world currency to challenge the dominance of the US dollar. Three months later a maid at the Sofitel New York Hotel alleged that Strauss-Kahn sexually assaulted her. Strauss-Kahn was forced out of his role at the IMF within weeks; he has since been cleared of any wrongdoing.

War and insidious interventions of this sort may be costly, but the costs of not protecting the petrodollar system would be far higher. If euros, yen, renminbi, rubles, or for that matter straight gold, were generally accepted for oil, the US dollar would quickly become irrelevant, rendering the currency almost worthless. As the rest of the world realizes that there are other options besides the US dollar for global transactions, the US is facing a very significant – and very messy – transition in the global oil machine.

The Iranian Dilemma

Iran may be isolated from the United States and Western Europe, but Tehran still has some pretty staunch allies. Iran and Venezuela are advancing $4 billion worth of joint projects, including a bank. India has pledged to continue buying Iranian oil because Tehran has been a great business partner for New Delhi, which struggles to make its payments. Greece opposed the EU sanctions because Iran was one of very few suppliers that had been letting the bankrupt Greeks buy oil on credit. South Korea and Japan are pleading for exemptions from the coming embargoes because they rely on Iranian oil. Economic ties between Russia and Iran are getting stronger every year.

Then there's China. Iran's energy resources are a matter of national security for China, as Iran already supplies no less than 15% of China's oil and natural gas. That makes Iran more important to China than Saudi Arabia is to the United States. Don't expect China to heed the US and EU sanctions much – China will find a way around the sanctions in order to protect two-way trade between the nations, which currently stands at $30 billion and is expected to hit $50 billion in 2015. In fact, China will probably gain from the US and EU sanctions on Iran, as it will be able to buy oil and gas from Iran at depressed prices.

So Iran will continue to have friends, and those friends will continue to buy its oil. More importantly, you can bet they won't be paying for that oil with US dollars. Rumors are swirling that India and Iran are at the negotiating table right now, hammering out a deal to trade oil for gold, supported by a few rupees and some yen. Iran is already dumping the dollar in its trade with Russia in favor of rials and rubles. India is already using the yuan with China; China and Russia have been trading in rubles and yuan for more than a year; Japan and China are moving towards transactions in yen and yuan.

And all those energy trades between Iran and China? That will be settled in gold, yuan, and rial. With the Europeans out of the mix, in short order none of Iran's 2.4 million barrels of oil a day will be traded in petrodollars.

With all this knowledge in hand, it starts to seem pretty reasonable that the real reason tensions are mounting in the Persian Gulf is because the United States is desperate to torpedo this movement away from petrodollars. The shift is being spearheaded by Iran and backed by India, China, and Russia. That is undoubtedly enough to make Washington anxious enough to seek out an excuse to topple the regime in Iran.

Speaking of that search for an excuse, this is interesting. A team of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors just visited Iran. The IAEA is supervising all things nuclear in Iran, and it was an IAEA report in November warning that the country was progressing in its ability to make weapons that sparked this latest round of international condemnation against the supposedly near-nuclear state. But after their latest visit, the IAEA's inspectors reported no signs of bomb making. Oh, and if keeping the world safe from rogue states with nuclear capabilities were the sole motive, why have North Korea and Pakistan been given a pass?

There is another consideration to keep in mind, one that is very important when it comes to making some investment decisions based on this situation: Russia, India, and China – three members of the rising economic powerhouse group known as the BRICs (which also includes Brazil) – are allied with Iran and are major gold producers. If petrodollars go out of vogue and trading in other currencies gets too complicated, they will tap their gold storehouses to keep the crude flowing. Gold always has and always will be the fallback currency and, as mentioned before, when currency relationships start to change and valuations become hard to predict, trading in gold is a tried and true failsafe.

2012 might end up being most famous as the year in which the world defected from the US dollar as the global currency of choice. Imagine the rest of the world doing the math and, little by little, beginning to do business in their own currencies and investing ever less of their surpluses in US Treasuries. It constitutes nothing less than a slow but sure decimation of the dollar.

That may not be a bad thing for the United States. The country's gargantuan debts can never be repaid as long as the dollar maintains anything close to its current valuation. Given the state of the country, all that's really left supporting the value in the dollar is its global reserve currency status. If that goes and the dollar slides, maybe the US will be able to repay its debts and start fresh. That new start would come without the privileges and ingrained subsidies to which Americans are so accustomed, but it's amazing that the petrodollar system has lasted this long. It was only a matter of time before something would break it down.

Finally, the big question: How can one profit from this evolving situation? Playing with currencies is always very risky and, with the global game set to shift to significantly, it would require a lot of analysis and a fair bit of luck. The much more reliable way to play the game is through gold. Gold is the only currency backed by a physical commodity; and it is always where investors hide from a currency storm.

The basic conclusion is that a slow demise of the petrodollar system is bullish for gold and very bearish for the US dollar. As for any more specific suggestions on how to profit, check out our newsletters.

[Smart investors realize oil, like gold, is destined to rise dramatically and that investing in the right energy companies now will be like getting into the yellow metal 10 years ago.]


Additional Links and Reads

EU Embargoes Iranian Oil (Wall Street Journal)

European Union foreign ministers approved an embargo on Iran after getting past an internal debate on the burdens an embargo places on some EU members. Citing "serious and deepening concerns," the EU agreed to impose a full embargo on Iranian oil exports, including existing contracts, starting July 1. It also sanctioned Iran's central bank and Iranian petrochemical exports to the EU.

Iran Threatens to Hit US Targets over Strait of Hormuz as Europe Joins Oil-Import Ban (National Post)

Iran is not pleased that the EU has joined with the US in embargoing Iranian oil and responded to the news with aggressive threats. One Iranian politician renewed his country's threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz; another warned that his country would strike US targets worldwide if Washington used force to break a Hormuz blockade; and a third threatened to cut off crude shipments to the EU immediately.

India's Richest Delay Power Plans in Setback to Prosperity for All (Bloomberg)

India's richest families like to invest in power producers because sustained increases in electricity demand are a pretty sure bet in India. However, soaring coal prices have forced a slew of Indian power companies to mothball plans for new plants. The plants would have produced 42 gigawatts – equal to 68% of the government's targeted power-capacity increase for the five-year period ending in March – but with thermal coal prices from major suppliers Australia and Indonesia having climbed 27% and 24% respectively in two years, producers are seeing their profits dwindle. The problem is only made worse by India's regulation of power prices.

Bid to Halt South Sudan Oil Shutdown (Financial Times)

Despite aggressive moves from both sides, South Sudan and Sudan have agreed to extend their negotiations in an attempt to break a year-long deadlock over oil production and pipelines. The two countries, which split last July, have yet to reach an agreement on how to split oil revenues. Together the nations produce 460,000 barrels a day; while three-quarters of production is in South Sudan, the only way to transport the oil to a port is via a pipeline running through Sudan. Khartoum wants to charge South Sudan a substantial fee per barrel to use its pipeline, but the southern Juba government says it is only willing to pay a small fee because it is owed millions in compensation from the north after decades of civil war. Now the south has initiated a production shutdown after accusing Khartoum of stealing $815 million worth of oil.

North America to Become LNG Exporter by 2030 (Financial Post)

In its annual energy outlook, BP projected that natural gas will be the fastest-growing fossil fuel globally to 2030, with supplies growing at 2.1% annually. Within the industry, growth will be greatest in the liquefied natural gas sector, where supplies will rise at 4.5% per annum. China will eat up a lot of that gas: Chinese gas use is expected to climb 7.6% annually to reach 46 billion cubic feet per day in 2030. With unconventional natural gas production increasing rapidly, BP also predicted that North America will be exporting 5 billion cubic feet of LNG per day by 2030.

Shell to Spend $1B on Nova Scotia's Offshore Oil and Gas (CBC News)

Shell Canada announced plans to spend $1 billion exploring Nova Scotia's offshore oil and gas deposits over the next six years. Stuart Pinks, CEO of the Canada-Nova Scotia Petroleum Board, said the announcement shows "some significant confidence in the potential of the offshore of Nova Scotia." The board will continue to seek bidders for other blocks in the area, helped by a newly published offshore energy atlas that government geologists spent three years and $15 million developing.


The Gold Price Gave Back $13.80 Today This is no More That a Correction Within an Uptrend

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 10:30 AM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1664.20
Change : (13.80) or -0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 3193.10
Change : 30.2 cents or -0.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.119
Change : 0.060 or 0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01919
Change : -0.000022 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1546.90
Change : -16.80 or -1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 677.80
Change : -8.25 or -1.2%

S&P 500 : 1,314.65
Change : -1.35 or -0.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $157.45
Change : $ 0.90 or 0.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.617
Change : 0.044 or 0.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 396.97
Change : 2.69 or 0.7%

Dow Industrial : 12,675.75
Change : -33.07 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index : 79.81
Change : 0.023 or 0.0%

The GOLD PRICE bounced off that barrier at $1,680 yesterday and gave back $13.80 today, closing at $1,664.20. The GOLD PRICE can drop back to $1,658 - $1,656 and remain in an uptrend. So far, today's action classifies as no more than a correction within an uptrend.

The SILVER PRICE backed off 30.2c to close Comex at 3193.1c. Silver dipped its toe below 3200c to 3184c, but held there rock solid. And so it must do tomorrow to avoid a painful correction, down to 3080c, a dollar lower.

You always have to take care that you are not "talking your position," looking at a chart and seeing only what you want to see and ignoring the rest. Still, I believe that pattern on silver's chart is a continuation pattern, very tight, and will break out upside.

So (as my friend R. asked me today) why not talk about the GOLD/SILVER RATIO? Because I am still holding out for 57.5 to swap, and believe we will yet see that. Silver and gold have most likely made their bottoms, but first time silver makes a correction, it will suffer much more than gold will, and that (I hope) will give us that push.

Think about something else. I am still smarting by swapping out of SILVER into GOLD too early last year. I don't want to jump too early on the swap back, and I know from previous years that the ratio can post several similar highs before it turns down for good.

Right, that's risky, but for right now I believe it's a risk worth taking.

US dollar today gained a massive, spectacular 2.3 basis points (0.03%) to end at 79.806. It skidded to a stop just above the 50 DMA (79.52).

High today reached 80.184, low skidded to 79.643. Without closing higher than 80.20, the dollar is merely trolling for fools gullible enough to buy it on the way down.

Of course, if the buck hangs around above 79.50 for a few days, I might change my mind.

Scabby euro rose 0.09% today to 1.3036, not much changed from yesterday, but still rallying. Still headed for 1.3200 at least.

Yen, on the other hand, fell off a cliff today. Dropped 0.9% to 128.71c/Y100 (Y77.69/US$1), leaving behind a huge gap and punching through its 20 DMA (129.65) and 50 DMA (129.19). Support there is none before 128c, or the 200 DMA at 127.37c. Looks like the Nice Government Men in Japan woke up today and decided to lower the yen.

Stock indices shrugged off their confusion today and all decided to drop together. Dow lost 33.07 (0.26%) to 12,675.75. S&P500 gave back 1.35 to 0.1%. Charts aren't quite the same.

S&P500 has bumped into overhead resistance from last spring's highs and stopped cold. Dow punched through slightly, reached 12,764, and has traded back to the line for -- a failure and fall back, or a final kiss good-bye? Not clear yet, but stocks don't have much gas left. Dow won't reach 12,870, S&P500 shouldn't reach 1,360.

On 24 January 1848 James W. Marshall discovered a gold nugget at Sutter's Mill in northern California, the discovery that set off the Gold Rush. Discoveries of gold in California, Australia, and later South Africa led to a CHEAPENING of gold against silver, and the price of silver in gold rose steadily from 1848 until 1873, when silver was corruptly demonetized first in the US ("Crime of '73") and then in the new German Reich. Contrary to the propaganda, it was NOT new silver discoveries, like the Comstock Lode, that led to silver's cheapening against gold or its demonetization. That was all politics, and silver was gaining value from 1848 forward, never trading below the $1.2929 statutory value from 1848 to 1873, and rising at some points to $1.35 (4.4% over statutory price). No, ultimately driving silver out of the monetary system was a project of special interests who planned to drive out first, silver, and then gold, and so create their own money out of thin air. So far, they've won, and think what a tragedy it would have been if the banks had lost. Why, how would states have raised the money to fight all those world wars without central banks and fiat money? Gee, they couldn't have, so they would have been forced to make peace. It would have been a historical tragedy, wouldn't it?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.


Guest Post: Paychecks, Perception, Propaganda & Power

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 10:10 AM PST

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

Paychecks, Perception, Propaganda & Power

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" - Upton Sinclair

  

I began to write this article in early December. I had just written a piece that attempted to scrutinize how the American public could stand idly by while heavily armed mercenary thugs viciously crushed the Occupy encampments across the country in a Department of Homeland Security coordinated attack at the behest of the ruling oligarchy.  Comfortably Numb made a case that the political and economic systems of the United States have been captured by a few evil men and they use their wealth and power to control the message hammered into the psyches of an apathetic, distracted, vincibly ignorant public. I started to tackle the question of why Americans could stand by as the new Greatest Generation was being abandoned, derided, scorned, beaten, tear gassed, and arrested for having the courage and audacity to stand up to a powerful corrupt unholy alliance between Wall Street psychopaths, corporate fascist barbarians, and Washington DC power hungry jackals. But I became overwhelmed with a feeling of disillusionment and hopelessness and was unable to write anything for about a month. I found myself questioning whether it was worth fighting such a powerful foe after seeing how easily they crushed the opposition put forth by OWS. After a month I decided I am not one to love my servitude.

"Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution." Huxley's Brave New World

I owe it to my three sons to keep fighting the good fight. They deserve a future. Day by day we draw ever closer to a showdown with the traitors who have sold this country into debt slavery. I don't dream of revolution, but my eyes are wide open and I see it coming. I had been trying to wrap my head around what happened with the Occupy Movement since the Department of Homeland Security coordinated destruction of most of the encampments around the country in November. The corporate mainstream media immediately moved onto more pressing issues like the Kim Kardashian divorce and Jessica Simpson's weight gain. The American public has been instructed by the media the Occupy story is history, just like the BP oil spill, the Fukushima nuclear meltdown, and the Egyptian revolution. In a society consumed by reality TV Occupy Wall Street was just another show. The credulous American populace dutifully turned their attention to Black Friday and whipping out one of their 15 credit cards to purchase remote control pillows, 3D 72 inch HDTVs, a see through tank top from the Snooki line of slutware, or thousands of other ludicrous Chinese crap churned out by slave labor in factories built to support the "efficiency" efforts of U.S. conglomerates.

Without a constant irritating presence in the heart of NYC and other large cities, the Occupy Movement appears to have lost steam. I've been trying to figure out how and why this happened. The issues that motivated the protests have not gone away. The despicable MF Global crime, committed by a hall of shame member of the .01% – Jon Corzine – has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt the Wall Street/Washington DC criminal conspiracy is alive and well. Unless you have been sitting in line at a Wal-Mart for the last two months to get a $3 waffle-maker, you saw young people across the country tear gassed, shot with rubber bullets, maced, bludgeoned, and brutalized by the paid thugs of the ruling oligarchy on a daily basis. The outrage at the continued looting by the psychopathic Wall Street aristocracy and the horrific police brutality against young people exercising their Constitutional right to free speech and assembly should have ignited widespread anger and mass protest. Instead the reaction has been silence, scorn and smug satisfaction with the government response.

Paychecks & Perceptions

There are a plethora of rationales for the apathy and lack of critical thinking overwhelming our society as we plunge into the depths of a looming economic calamity. They include economic self interest, the power of propaganda to condition the masses, fear of opposing authority, and the perception of a reality that allows you to sleep at night. The Upton Sinclair quote above hit home for me a few weeks ago and explains much of the disdain for the Occupy movement. I was in a high level meeting at my University and during the course of the meeting the Occupy Movement was brought up. A senior executive made a derogatory comment about Occupy and then laughed. I smiled and bit my tongue. In retrospect it shouldn't have surprised me. I work at one of the top business schools in the world. The person who made the comment has spent his entire life educating students who end up with jobs at Wall Street financial institutions and with America's largest corporations. It is a natural response for someone whose whole life is reliant upon the existing financial system to psychologically overlook the obvious criminality of the Wall Street fat cats and corporate executives who validate his entire existence and life's work. He chooses to not understand the message of these protestors because to truthfully comprehend their message would nullify his thirty years of academic efforts. My non-response to the comment about the Occupy Movement was also based upon self-interest and reliance on a paycheck to make a living. I had learned my lesson the hard way during a previous career stop.

It appears older generations have a considerably more negative view of young people protesting the capture of our political and economic system than younger generations. This also makes sense because they have the most to lose and cannot visualize a society other than the one they have created. To acknowledge the validity of the Occupy Movement and the justice of their positions would be to admit their own guilt in the creation of a society that has allowed a chosen few to enrich themselves at the expense of the many. The Baby Boom Generation has been living a lie their entire adulthood. It is true that prior generations created the welfare/warfare state we have today, but the Boomers have had the reins of power for the last two decades in Congress and chose to not only ignore the fact the entitlement promises made by previous administrations could not be fulfilled. They even made further promises in the trillions to their fellow Boomers. Instead of making a budgetary choice between guns and butter, the Boomers chose guns, butter, education, universal healthcare, the right to own a home, the right to a 72 inch HDTV, and zero percent financing on their Cadillac Escalade from government motors. The consequences of these choices are a $15.2 trillion National Debt growing at a rate of $3.7 billion per day and unfunded entitlement liabilities totaling in excess of $100 trillion.

I had the pleasure of meeting Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning and fourteen other books, in early December. His ground breaking work with William Strauss on generational theory has proven to be uncannily accurate, as their 1997 assessment of what dynamics would drive the course of history over the coming decades have materialized exactly as they presumed. We had a fascinating two hour discussion about various topics impacting the world today and I found that we were in agreement on just about everything, except for the Occupy protests. Neil Howe is an expert on interpreting how generations react to events. I expected him to be impressed by the courage and fortitude of the Millenials leading this protest against Wall Street gluttony and audacious criminality. This is the new GI Generation and I anticipated him perceiving these protests as a prelude to greater feats ahead by this generation. Instead he described them as naive adolescents being led down a phony path by anarchist Boomers. As an example he referenced the fact that many of the protestors were wearing Guy Fawkes masks, the most famous anarchist in history. He found this distasteful and dangerous. My interpretation of the Guy Fawkes masks was more in line with the movie V For Vendetta and the theme of a corrupt evil government keeping the public living in perpetual fear.

"Because while the truncheon may be used in lieu of conversation, words will always retain their power. Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth. And the truth is, there is something terribly wrong with this country, isn't there? Cruelty and injustice, intolerance and oppression. And where once you had the freedom to object, to think and speak as you saw fit, you now have censors and systems of surveillance coercing your conformity and soliciting your submission. How did this happen? Who's to blame? Well certainly there are those more responsible than others, and they will be held accountable, but again truth be told, if you're looking for the guilty, you need only look into a mirror. I know why you did it. I know you were afraid. Who wouldn't be? War, terror, disease. There were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense. Fear got the best of you, and in your panic you turned to the now high chancellor, Adam Sutler. He promised you order, he promised you peace, and all he demanded in return was your silent, obedient consent." V For Vendetta

Neil Howe's impression of the movie centered on the terroristic aspects of blowing up Parliament, not on the symbolism of citizens rising up and casting off the yoke of a malevolent oligarchy that has used propaganda, fear and intimidation to manipulate and control the population. Howe is a Baby Boomer and I'm Generation X. We are each viewing the Occupy Movement through the prism of our life experiences and perceptions about the intentions of these protestors. The existing social, economic, and political structure is dominated by Boomers. Neil Howe views the Occupy Movement as a threat to the system he believes in and supports. As a cynical Xer with no allegiance to a corrupt government, a crony capitalist economic system or a greedy self centered society, I see these young revolutionaries as our last great hope. 

  

Neil Howe runs a very successful consulting firm whose clients include Fortune 500 corporations, including Wall Street financial firms. His annual income and net worth is dependent upon the existing corporate dynamic. When your living depends upon not understanding the real reason young people are protesting corporate malfeasance, fraud and corruption, your mind can ignore observable facts and visible truths. Anything can be rationalized when putting food on the table requires you to ignore obvious truths and understandable facts.     

Propaganda & Power

"The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind." – Edward Bernays, Propaganda, 1928 

   File:Edward Bernays.jpg

I was shocked when I came across the above quote a few months ago. Bernays had it figured out 84 years ago before mass media, television, or spin doctors. His vision of a society manipulated by a small number of governing elite who believe they know better than the masses has come to fruition. True republican equality as defined by the founders in the Constitution is considered quaint and a belief of the trusting and naïve masses by the wealthy elite. Manipulation of the masses through a relentless never ending barrage of propaganda disguised as news and unremitting false advertising is designed to control and herd the cattle into the slaughterhouse. We are given the illusion of free choice, when in reality the choices are being made for us by a chosen few who think they know what is best. These puppeteers controlling the strings inhabit the financial, government and corporate halls of power. Their purpose is not to benefit society and its citizens but to protect their wealth and influence, using any means at their disposal. Propaganda to control the minds of a willfully uninformed public has been their most potent weapon.  

 

Source: Mike Kreiger

Most people have never heard the name Edward Bernays. That is the way public relations specialists (manipulators of the truth) like it. They operate in the shadows, subtly influencing public opinion through what Bernays arrogantly referred to as the sinister method of "engineering of consent". The Governing Elite have no time for messy processes like true capitalism or non-manipulated free elections. The objective for Bernays and his ilk has always been to provide corrupt government power brokers, shadowy bankers and corporate media kingpins with potent psychological instruments of social persuasion and mind control. Edward Bernays is considered the "father of public relations", and he was the nephew of Sigmund Freud. He pioneered media manipulation techniques.

He understood the weaknesses of the human mind and developed methods and processes for taking advantage of that weakness.

"The average citizen is the world's most efficient censor. His own mind is the greatest barrier between him and the facts. His own 'logic proof compartments,' his own absolutism are the obstacles which prevent him from seeing in terms of experience and thought rather than in terms of group reaction."Bernays, Crystallizing Public Opinion

Bernays got his big break during the administration of Woodrow Wilson, the outset of the American interventionist empire bankrolled by an inflation creating Federal Reserve and a tax and spend Congress.  During WWI, Edward began work for the Committee on Public Information, the immense propaganda machine ordered by Woodrow Wilson to sway the American public towards a war he campaigned to keep us out of. He became so instrumental he was invited to accompany Wilson to the Paris peace conference. His claims to fame afterward included:

  • Creating a false storyline of communists in Guatemala on behalf of his client United Fruit Company, resulting in a CIA led military coup which ushered in a brutal dictatorship resulting in the dislocation, torture and death of thousands.
  • He was responsible for breaking the taboo of women smoking in public while working for American Tobacco Company.

His biggest claim to fame was inspiring the most reviled propagandist in history. Bernays' techniques were so effective that Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi propaganda minister, made copious use of Bernays' book, "Propaganda" throughout the Holocaust, often crediting Bernays. That was quite a feather in Bernays' cap. The German people were gradually indoctrinated by their government through propaganda into consenting and supporting the most horrific crimes in history as described by Milton Mayer in his book, They Thought They Were Free – The Germans, 1933-45:

"This separation of government from people, this widening of the gap, took place so gradually and so insensibly, each step disguised (perhaps not even intentionally) as a temporary emergency measure or associated with true patriotic allegiance or with real social purposes. And all the crises and reforms (real reforms, too) so occupied the people that they did not see the slow motion underneath, of the whole process of government growing remoter and remoter.

"To live in this process is absolutely not to be able to notice it—please try to believe me—unless one has a much greater degree of political awareness, acuity, than most of us had ever had occasion to develop. Each step was so small, so inconsequential, so well explained or, on occasion, 'regretted,' that, unless one were detached from the whole process from the beginning, unless one understood what the whole thing was in principle, what all these 'little measures' that no 'patriotic German' could resent must someday lead to, one no more saw it developing from day to day than a farmer in his field sees the corn growing. One day it is over his head."

Bernays was a master of using psychological techniques to mask the motives of his clients, as part of a calculated strategy aimed at keeping the public unaware of the forces that were working to mold their psyches. Bernays died in 1995, but his techniques have been taken to a new level as our government, media and financial elite use any means at their disposal to keep the masses sedated and content while they are fleeced and herded towards the slaughterhouse. The Big Lie perpetrated upon the masses is the fallacy of America being a democratic society. The anti-democratic and treacherous corporate public relations Madison Avenue maggots manage and manipulate the opinions of the many in order to make sure a true democratic system doesn't threaten the privileges and supremacy of the governing elite.

I wonder if it was coincidental the creation of the Federal Reserve, implementation of the personal income tax, and virtually non-stop war coincided with the rise of an industry designed to manipulate and control the thoughts and opinions of an easily influenced and willfully unaware populace. Most people want to be led and told what to believe. Critical thinking and taking personal responsibility for your life and your society requires hard work, sacrifice, honesty, and self restraint. Simply believing storylines supplied by authority figures and media pundits allow the masses to continue living lives of debt delusion and hope, occasionally stirred into a frenzy of fear and loathing towards the foreign bogeyman of the moment, chosen by the governing elite. Bernays and his disciples understood this dynamic and have been able to utilize corporate mass media and the human weakness of trusting in the judgments of authority figures to control and manage the vast swath of America without them knowing it.    

"If we understand the mechanism and motives of the group mind, it is now possible to control and regiment the masses according to our will without them knowing it." – Edward Bernays

The propaganda techniques employed to manipulate the masses seemed less abhorrent when they centered upon just consumer products. Convincing women they would look like a gorgeous model if they used a company's cosmetics or convincing a man he'd be admired by his neighbors if he drove a certain car was small potatoes. In the last few decades the misinformation and outright lies fed to the American public by oligarchy of governing elite has become more manifest and repugnant. The list of abuses is virtually endless.

  • The American public has been lured into debt by the incessant unrelenting lifestyle marketing messages spewed from our TVs 24/7. From the introduction of the show Lifestyles of the Rich & Famous in the early 1980s, wealth, materialism, and consumerism became the motivating force in America. Consumption accounted for only 63% of GDP in 1980, with capital investment accounting for 17%. Today, consumption accounts for 71% of GDP and capital investment only 12%. Keeping up with the Kardashians is the mantra of our times.
  • The utter failure of our government controlled educational system in teaching our children how to think critically or question the validity of g


George Soros Predicts Economic Chaos/Conflict in Europe and Riots in the U.S.!

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 09:50 AM PST

George Soros…is more concerned with surviving than staying rich…He doesn’t just mean it’s time to protect your assets. He means it’s time to stave off disaster. As he sees it, the world faces one of the most dangerous periods of modern history—a period of “evil.” Europe is confronting a descent into chaos and conflict. In America he predicts riots on the streets that will lead to a brutal clampdown that will dramatically curtail civil liberties. The global economic system could even collapse altogether.*[Perhaps] we should be, too, [but as] we have often explained, [such comments ar nothing more than] the fear-based promotions of the*power elite to*frighten the middle classes into giving up power and wealth to globalist institutions. Let us explain.* So says an article* posted at [url]www.TheDailybell.com[/url] that I encourage you to read. *[URL]http://www.thedailybell.com/3535/Soros-Threatens-Blood-on-the-Streets[/URL] Related Articles:...


Super Mario

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 09:20 AM PST

From The January 2012 HRA Journal David Coffin and Eric Coffin We are extremely comfortable that our prognosticating for 2012 may or may not work out. Which puts us in the same camp as most others. That said, a contrarian turn ahead of possible normalizing of the debt issues still with us that we suggested in December does seem to be gaining ground in the market. With that should come a greater focus on basic technical indicators like metal stockpile changes. We note small copper stocks on page 4, but will point out here these are focused by direction over weeks. Don’t get hung up on day to day changes. Both bull and bear issues in this market are really year to year, which means looking for value and for sustainability. This month we review a gold juniors merger in the making. It involves two Canadian focused explorers we have mentioned in the past, and which we put in the same room for reasons outlined in the review. We are in an environment of high me...


In An Epic Crisis Strong Beats Smart

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 09:11 AM PST

Stewart Thomson email: [EMAIL="stewart@gracelandupdates.com"]stewart@gracelandupdates.com[/EMAIL] email: [EMAIL="stewart@gracelandjuniors.com"]stewart@gracelandjuniors.com[/EMAIL] Jan 24, 2012 [*]How much gold have you bought since the lows of late December? Hopefully, you bought none. Click this gold battle zone chart now. [*]When the price of any asset is in a rising trend, as it is now, the only thoughts in your head should be to hold your positions or book some profit. The gold asset has been in a rising trend against the dollar since late December, so you really should have bought no gold since then. [*]Gold has rallied over $150 on this move from $1525 to $1680. The reason you bought no gold since the $1525 area lows is because you already bought into those lows, or should have, as gold declined from about $1923 to about $1525. [*]There is an enormous financial difference between one professional investor who bought his own fears into the price zon...


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