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- Wednesday Options Recap
- More Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus Means More 'Slo-flation'
- Nevsun: Another Great Gold Stock In The Market Cap Sweet Spot Of $1 - $2 Billion
- 2012 Likely to Be Very Different From 2011
- Gold “Still Respecting” Post-Lehman Trend, Fed Policy “Set to Support Gold”, ECB “Should Participate in Greek Debt Efforts”
- Sterling Trust Gold/Silver IRA, anyone?
- Fed To Markets: Buy Gold And Silver
- Northern Tiger Volume Candle Chart
- IMF’s Grim Outlook to Davo’s Sunny Slopes – Gold Shines
- When Will Silver Reach a New High?
- Another Chance to Sell Common Stocks and Buy Precious Metals
- Return of the Gold Commission? Would it Raise the Gold Price? Confiscation?
- Dollars Influence on Gold
- Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - 01/25/12 & 01/24/12
- The details on last night's incredible Apple earnings report
- Detlev S. Schlichter: Paper Money Collapse
- Silver Sales Up As Supply Slips
- Gold is money?! Indians to pay for Iranian oil with gold
- The Coming Dollar Downleg And Gold Upleg
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, January 25, 2012
- David Franklin on Gold and Silver
- CHART: Commodity Prices
- Gold for Oil? India and Iran Ditch the Dollar?
- This Is Where The Gold Is(n't) - The New York Fed Guide To The Most Valuable Vault In The World
- The Demise of the Petrodollar: The World of Energy
- Gold for Oil: India and Iran Ditch Dollar - Report
- Murray Pollitt: Gold is the uninvited guest
- John Embry - Gold is the Cure to Epic Monetary Debasement
- 'Mania' in Junior Mining Stocks Predicted: Fayyaz Alimohamed
- Sovereigns Declare War on US Dollar
| Posted: 25 Jan 2012 06:57 AM PST By Frederic Ruffy: SentimentMarket action was mixed into midday, but then stocks caught a bid in afternoon trading Wednesday following the release of minutes from the December FOMC meeting. The text didn't seem to hold any surprises, as Fed officials continued to express concerns about poor economic conditions and signaled no imminent changes to monetary policy. Nevertheless, the dollar sank shortly after the minutes made the rounds. Gold, stocks moved higher. The only other economic stat of the day showed Pending Home Sales down 3.5 percent in December and .5 percent more than expected. Meanwhile, a lot of the focus is on earnings. While Apple is leading the NASDAQ on the heels of its release, Delta and US Airways are also seeing post-earnings strength. Computer Associates, Textron, and Steel Dynamics edged higher. AMD, Yahoo, and Boeing are among some widely held names seeing post-earnings weakness. Yet, the underlying tone of trading remains Complete Story » |
| More Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus Means More 'Slo-flation' Posted: 25 Jan 2012 06:17 AM PST By Calafia Beach Pundit: The Law of Unintended Consequences, coupled with a contrarian mindset, is often the best way to understand the impact of government policies on the economy: whatever the government is trying hardest to do, expect the opposite. At the very least, remain very skeptical. Today the FOMC reminded us that they are trying really, really hard to stimulate the economy by keeping short-term interest rates very, very low, "at least through late 2014." Notably missing in today's FOMC statement was boilerplate which promises that the FOMC will keep its eye on the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. The Fed is trying to be bold, but even they realize that "a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy" is only likely to foster more inflation rather than more growth. Rising inflation expectations sap some of the economy's vitality by steering resources to speculative activities (e.g., buying gold and stockpiling commodities, buying other Complete Story » |
| Nevsun: Another Great Gold Stock In The Market Cap Sweet Spot Of $1 - $2 Billion Posted: 25 Jan 2012 06:17 AM PST By Simit Patel: There are a few criteria that I regard as the sweet spot for the buy and hold gold stock investor:
When a stock meets these criteria, I'm inclined to take a closer look at management, mining projects, jurisdiction, and other such issues to see if an investment is warranted. And in this regard, one stock that has recently come to my attention (although I should've seen it earlier) is Nevsun Resources (NSU). Here are the key details on Nevsun:
Complete Story » |
| 2012 Likely to Be Very Different From 2011 Posted: 25 Jan 2012 06:11 AM PST Regardless of what happens in the short-term (i.e. interim market correction of routine or severe degree upon completion of this sentiment-induced broad market rally), the analysis being brought forward in NFTRH over the last few weeks is painting a picture of a 2012 that could by year end, feature heightened inflation concerns as opposed to the deflationary ones that so predictably came about after the spring of 2011. The 'continuum' (AKA the monthly view of the TYX or 30 year Treasury yield) predicted last spring that Bill Gross of PIMCO stood to be very wrong in his highly publicized Treasury bond short play. Another way to put it is that PIMCO was heavily 'long' rising interest rates at a technical point that had limited every rise in long-term rates over a span of decades. Was he going to suddenly make THE call and be right on this? Unlikely.  Enter one US congressional debt debate and one European sovereign debt meltdown and the US Treasury market was suddenly all the rage, as long-term interest rates plummeted. Enter the 'deflationists' that always come center stage at such times. Whereas Mr. Gross was taking a big risk in being short the bond (long rising rates) near the 100 month exponential moving average (solid red line), the people buying the deflation story hook line and sinker, clinging to the US government's most long-term debt paper for safety, are now sitting squarely in the line of fire with respect to upside inflation risks as the TYX decides whether it is going to insert another green arrow at current levels. Here is a closer look at the TYX in the form of a weekly view.  Let's just say that this looks like a bottom in the making for 30 year yields. Dialing in closer, the daily view below shows a move above resistance. While it is too soon to confirm this as a breakout, we can certainly see some risks to the 'declining interest rates' and deflation scenarios going forward.  Now, it is not as easy as just watching nominal interest rates and calling 'inflation' or 'deflation'. There are other indicators to use to look at this from as many angles as possible, including the various yield curves between long and short term Treasury rates. NFTRH171 took a look at the most extreme curve, the TYX-IRX (30 year yield to T bill 'yield'), for example. Its message was one of deflationary wrangling amid upward and downward spikes and massive volatility in 2011, while remaining in an upward trend over the long term. This is a picture of accommodative policy making, the likes of which tends to bring on obvious inflation problems in the form of rising asset prices later on. Then of course there is the hugely bullish sentiment toward the currency that denominates US Treasury bonds. Here is the latest view of the Rydex Strengthening Dollar Assets (compliments of sentimentrader.com), which is of course, bearish on a contrarian basis. 2011′s refugees, many of whom were likely too long the 'inflation trade' last spring as inflationary fears maxed out are sitting comfortably in US dollars, convinced of coming declines in asset markets.  We have been fed so steadily a diet of the European debt crisis, the MF Global margin meltdown and unhealthy systems coming apart at the seams left and right. I do not want to minimize these threats, but if things go the way they have gone all along the 'continuum' at points when the majority were convinced of certain outcomes and eventualities, a set up is in place for something very different. That would be the "Inflationary 2012″ theme NFTRH is working on week by week. Risk has been managed rigidly throughout a challenging 2011 to the present time, and this year we look forward to the possibility of something very different, judging by this view of the US Treasury market, US currency and several indicators that are generally updated in NFTRH on an ongoing basis. http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com
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| Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:47 AM PST Wednesday 25 January 2012, 08:30 EST Gold "Still Respecting" Post-Lehman Trend, Fed Policy "Set to Support Gold", ECB "Should Participate in Greek Debt Efforts" SPOT MARKET gold bullion prices dropped to $1653 an ounce Wednesday morning London time – down 1.7% from Monday's high – while stock markets, commodities and the Euro all slid and US Treasuries gained after the head of the International Monetary Fund suggested the European Central Bank could take losses on its Greek bond holdings. Silver bullion fell to $31.67 – down 1.8% for the week so far. "On the weekly chart, gold is still respecting the uptrend off the October 2008 low, with key support at $1550," says the latest report from technical analysts at gold bullion bank Scotia Mocatta. "If the level of Greek debt held by the private sector is not sufficiently renegotiated," IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said this morning," then public sector holders of Greek debt should also participate in the efforts." The ECB – which started buying Greek bonds in May 2010 when the crisis first escalated – remains opposed to seeing its holdings of Greek debt restructured, according to newswire Bloomberg, which cited anonymous sources. "Once again, policy makers leave the room and hope the ECB will fill in," says Thomas Costerg, London-based European economist at Standard Chartered. "The risk is that by putting the ECB on board, as the IMF asks, this could result in debt swap negotiations restarting from scratch, which could mean additional delay to an already over-stretched timetable." Debt restructuring formed part of an agreement reached last October to give Greece a second bailout worth €130 billion – without which it will be unable to pay maturing bonds worth €14.5 billion on March 20. Over the course of Wednesday morning the Euro handed back all of this week's gains against the Dollar. In thin trade reflecting the absence of Far Eastern players during the Lunar New Year Week, Dollar gold bullion prices were down 0.8% for the week by Wednesday lunchtime. "In the absence of sustained physical interest, gold is prone to a little more downside this week as bullion continues trading with global risk sentiment," says VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov, adding that the US Federal Reserve looks "set to remain accommodative for now which is, as ever, gold-beneficial in the long run." "The Fed's stance should continue to support gold," agrees Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank. "Fundamentally, we believe that the long-term causal drivers of gold are global liquidity (defined as the Fed's Balance Sheet plus FX reserve holdings) and real interest rates." The Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision later today, and is widely expected to leave its target federal funds rate within the range 0% to 0.25%. In addition, it will publish for the first time Federal Open Market Committee members' projections for the appropriate target rate over the next few years. "We expect the rate guidance in the policy statement to move the timetable for current accommodation well beyond mid-2013 and into 2014," says a report from Citigroup fixed-income strategists Peter Goves and Nishay Patel. US president Barack Obama yesterday outlined his "Buffett rule" for tax reform, which takes its name from the billionaire Berkshire Hathaway chief executive Warren Buffett. "If you make more than $1 million a year," Obama said, "you should not pay less than 30% in taxes." Obama's address came days after Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney disclosed that he paid 13.9% income taxes on $21.6 million of earnings in 2010. Romney disclosed his tax returns following criticism from his rival for the Republican nomination Newt Gingrich. The UK economy meantime declined by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011, official data published Wednesday show. Were the economy to shrink for a second consecutive quarter, Britain would be back in technical recession. "[A negative growth rate]gives additional ammunition to those at the Bank of England who want to do more quantitative easing sooner rather than later," reckons Peter Dixon, London-based global equities economist at Commerzbank, adding that the news "gives some more credence to the idea they will move in February." The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee will make its next policy announcement on February 9. "With inflation falling back and wage growth subdued, there is scope for interest rates to remain low, and, if necessary, for further asset purchases," said Bank of England governor Mervyn King Tuesday, referring to the possibility of further quantitative easing. The news that Britain's economy had shrunk came a day after it was revealed that net public debt has breached £1 trillion for the first time in history. The Bank of England's latest survey of business conditions meantime shows spending, hiring, exports growth, borrowing and investment all weakening at the start of 2012. Inflation in the cost of labor and raw materials eased slightly. But annual inflation in the price of imports "remained elevated" says the Bank's summary for January. While the Pound has stayed relatively steady against the Dollar and Euro over the last 12 months, the Sterling price of gold bullion is up more than 25% compared to this time last year. Importers of gold bullion in India meantime are delaying buying gold following last week's decision by the government to switch to a 2% ad valorem import tax – as opposed to the previous flat rate by weight – the Wall Street Journal reports. Since the new tax is calculated by value, importers who delay will benefit if the price of gold subsequently falls. High profile investor Dennis Gartman has said that while the gold bull market "is probably still extant", he is now "neutral" on the prospects for gold bullion. Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. (c) BullionVault 2011 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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| Sterling Trust Gold/Silver IRA, anyone? Posted: 25 Jan 2012 04:42 AM PST There's a broker from the Chicago Precious Metals Exchange contacting me regarding opening a precious metals IRA. This is supposedly a vehicle for holding physical PMs in an actual IRA (thereby avoiding capital gains tax on liquidation). I could find only one other GIMer that had done this before. Have others done it would could give me an opinion and talk about your satisfaction with this IRA type and the company? Also, with the current market conditions, would one perhaps do a spit between gold and silver? In my current paper IRAs I have GLD and the miner AUY, but no silver. Thank you, Kris |
| Fed To Markets: Buy Gold And Silver Posted: 25 Jan 2012 04:35 AM PST The Fed just spoke. Here's a slightly edited transcript:
This of course comes as no surprise to anyone. But seeing it in print had exactly the impact you'd expect. Stocks erased their early losses, the dollar tanked, and precious metals soared. With good reason. It is now the stated policy of the US government to have negative real interest rates for years to come (eons in trader-time).
The carrying cost of gold and silver bullion will remain more or less zero, while all manner of "risk-on" strategies and carry trades will generate virtually guaranteed returns. Think back a decade or so and ask your younger, more naive self what the result of open-ended zero interest rates would be. You'd have probably said "that will never happen, but if it did, gold and silver would go parabolic". You'd be half right. Grab those junior miners with both hands. |
| Northern Tiger Volume Candle Chart Posted: 25 Jan 2012 02:31 AM PST From the Chart Book. Just below is our 3-month 60-minute Volume Candle tracking chart for Northern Tiger Resources (TSX:NTR.V or NTGSF) by request. The chart largely speaks for itself as it reflects the end of tax loss selling on December 30 and a dramatic commitment of CEO Greg Hayes to purchase shares of his own company in the open market - the details of which are in the GotGoldBlog post previous to this one. Continued... Our view is that Northern Tiger was overly hammered late in 2011, and the fact that the CEO has stepped up to buy close to one million shares of his own company over the past month gives us more confidence for our own, more than four-unit long position. If we did not already hold such a sizable position, we would definitely be adding here, at C $0.14 OB. Of course everyone needs to study the issues and make up their own minds about such things. We see NTR at this level as having a great deal more upside potential than the opposite. "The Market" has seen fit to throw NTR overboard, ignoring their promising high-grade showings at their 3Ace prospect in the SE Yukon. We, on the other hand, have chosen not to ignore them and instead have chosen to back up the truck at what we consider Ridiculous Cheap levels in mid-December.As we send this off to be posted, shares of NTR.V were changing hands in Toronto at C $0.15. Just below is a much reduced version of the tracking chart we share with Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) for context. Considering that in late 2010 NTR shares traded as high as $0.93, today's trading range amounts to about a "six-for-one" sale price in our simple way of looking at things. Due diligence a must, Caveat Utilitor. That is all for now, but there is more to come. Disclosure: Northern Tiger Resources is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI) and is our fully fledged Vulture Bargain #7. Members of the GGR team are actively accumulating and hold long positions in NTR.V or NTGSF. |
| IMF’s Grim Outlook to Davo’s Sunny Slopes – Gold Shines Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:37 AM PST |
| When Will Silver Reach a New High? Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:30 AM PST Casey Research |
| Another Chance to Sell Common Stocks and Buy Precious Metals Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:28 AM PST The Daily Gold |
| Return of the Gold Commission? Would it Raise the Gold Price? Confiscation? Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:26 AM PST |
| Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:00 AM PST SunshineProfits |
| Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - 01/25/12 & 01/24/12 Posted: 25 Jan 2012 12:49 AM PST 01/25/12 Yawn. Metals firmly in the middle. No Chinese activity due to New Year. Waiting to see if the Fed says anything about rates. Probably not much, can't see them raising and Q3 although a possibility too soon to be politically expedient. No conciliatory remarks from Obama, which indicates dead-lock in Washington until 2013. The year of the Dragon (mine by the way) is beginning like Puff (the Magic Dragon.) Lets float around and be happy, all the bad stuff is behind us. NOT. 01/24/12 Although the markets traded above the resistance level yesterday, the NY close held at the chart point. Profit taking in the equity markets has put some downward pressure on the metals. Need that close above the $1,675 range to confirm the test of $1,700 range. Markets again susceptible to headline events. Iran, Greek talks. Markets also looking at tonights State of the Union address to see if there is any chance of bi-partisan efforts to get anything done before the election. Don't hold your breath. Still hold to my consensus from early January that the markets are exposed to downside weakness. time to watch for conviction. Volumes should remain tame, until a direction becomes more evident. |
| The details on last night's incredible Apple earnings report Posted: 24 Jan 2012 11:57 PM PST From The Big Picture: It is truly amazing how the world's largest company can still grow revenues by 73% year-over-year and earnings by over 100%. Apple blew away analyst estimates in today's release by almost 40%, earning $13.87 in fiscal Q1 2012. They also beat the Street's revenue estimates by a margin larger than Nicaragua's 2011 GDP! Big numbers. More on technology stocks: Apple's secret weapon revealed Porter Stansberry: What people are missing about Apple's stock World Dominators: Two "boring" tech stock just reported fantastic earnings |
| Detlev S. Schlichter: Paper Money Collapse Posted: 24 Jan 2012 11:52 PM PST The Folly of Elastic Money and the Coming Monetary Breakdown. Detlev S. Schlichter: Author of Paper Money Collapse from FinancialSense: Much More @ FinancialSense.com |
| Silver Sales Up As Supply Slips Posted: 24 Jan 2012 11:12 PM PST Silver Sales Up As Supply Slips Steve St. Angelo |January 23, 2012 - 4:52pm For the first time in history, Silver Eagle & Maple Leaf sales will surpass domestic silver production in the U.S. and Canada in 2011 The demand for American Silver Eagles and Canadian Maple Leaf coins has increased tremendously over the past several years. 2011 will be the first year in which official coin sales will surpass domestic silver production in both countries. Even though each country has seen declines in their domestic silver production over the past decade, U.S. silver production declined a whopping 30% yoy (year over year) in October. According to the USGS in their most recent Silver Mineral Industry Survey, silver production fell to 81,400 kilograms in October— compared to 117,000 kilograms the same time last year.  As of October this year, the United States has produced 923,000 kilograms or 923 metric tonnes of silver. This number will change as revisions are made, but currently U.S. silver production is down 15% compared to the first ten months of 2010. At this rate, the U.S. will produce an estimated 35 million ounces of silver this year. This is significant, as production will yield less than the approximate 40 million ounces of American Silver Eagle sales for 2011. American Silver Eagle Sales Overtake Total U.S. Silver Production in 2011  Here we can see that U.S. silver production has declined 50% since its high of 70 million ounces in 1997. In 1997 American Silver Eagle sales were 3.6 million, which accounted for only 5% of domestic silver production. Contrasted to today, Silver Eagle sales are estimated to reach 40 million while domestic mine supply will decline to 35 million ounces in 2011. Thus, American Silver Eagle sales will be 114% of the total U.S. silver supply in 2011… what a difference in 14 years. This trend is also taking place in the country's northern neighbor. Canadian Maple Leaf Sales Outperform Silver Eagles in Percentage Growth Canadian silver production has declined 57% from its recent high in 2002 at 44.1 million oz to an estimated 18.6 million oz this year. According to the Royal Canadian Mint's 2003 Annual Report (and including figures from previous years), there were only 576,196 Silver Maple Leaf coins sold in 2002— making up about 1.3% of the total Canadian domestic silver production. In 2011, this figure is estimated to reach approximately 22.5 million Silver Maple Leaf (SML) sales or almost 30% higher than its previous year's total of 17.9 million. In comparison, 2011 American Silver Eagle sales are estimated to increase only five million sales over last year's figures— or a 15% increase. In the graph below we can see just how apparent this change of domestic silver supply vs. SML demand has become in the past several years:  The figure of 22.5 million SMLs for 2011 was estimated from the data obtained from the Royal Canadian Mint's Third Quarter Report Fiscal 2011: Sales of Silver Maple Leaf (SML) coins jumped to 6.1 million ounces during the quarter from 4.5 million ounces in the same period in 2010….During the 39 weeks to October 1, 2011, sales of SML coins increased by 56.1% to 17.8 million ounces. If we consider that American Silver Eagle sales have declined in November, it would be appropriate to conclude that Silver Maple Leaf sales did as well. Assuming that fourth quarter SML sales would be approximately five million (as expressed in current trends) it would give us a figure of 22.8 million oz in 2011… rounded down to 22.5 mil oz to be conservative. If these figures are correct and the Royal Canadian Mint does sell 22.5 million Silver Maple Leaf coins in 2011, it will be at a rate of 121% of their domestic silver production. 2011 will be the first year in which both the U.S. and Canada will sell more Silver Eagles & Maples than what is available from their respective silver mining supplies. Does the U.S. Mint Have to Use Domestic Silver Mine Supply for its Silver Eagle Production? There has been a great deal of discussion on the internet on whether or not the U.S. Mint is by law forced to use domestic silver production for their minting of American Silver Eagles. I have spoken with Michael White at the Office of Public Affairs at the U.S. Mint concerning this issue. Mr. White provided me the link to Senate Bill S. 2954, passed into law in 2002, which allows the U.S. Mint to purchase silver on the open market to produce American Silver Eagles. Wikipedia has also documented this below: Program extension, 2002 The authorizing legislation for the American Silver Eagle bullion program stipulated that the silver used to mint the coins be acquired from the Defense National Stockpile with the intent to deplete the stockpile's silver holdings slowly over several years. By 2002, it became apparent that the stockpile would be depleted and that further legislation would be required for the program to continue. On June 6, 2002, Senator Harry Reid (D-Nevada) introduced bill S. 2594, "Support of American Eagle Silver Bullion Program Act," "to authorize the Secretary of the Treasury to purchase silver on the open market when the silver stockpile is depleted." The bill was passed by the Senate on June 21 and by the House on June 27 and signed into law (Pub.L. 107-201, 116 Stat. 736) by President Bush on July 23, 2002. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Silver_Eagle If it were true that domestic silver was required to mint these coins, the U.S. Mint would have only produced approximately 35 million oz of Silver Eagles in 2011— instead of the supposed 40 million currently estimated. This is also true for the Royal Canadian Mint as it is now producing more Silver Maples than it can supply through Canada's own domestic silver production. Even though the U.S. and Canada produce more Silver Eagles and Maples than their domestic mine supplies, neither country has regarded this as a problem because they each have enough imported silver to meet all of their industrial and investment demands. However, this situation may change in the future as the global economy worsens and each country loses further trust in their respective fiat currencies. The Myth Behind the So-called Silver Surplus The investing public has been led to believe that the world is now producing a surplus of silver. This so-called surplus was provided by information put forth by GFMS. According to GFMS and its World Silver Surveys, there has been an annual global deficit of silver since 2003. In 2004 the world hit its first small surplus and has continued to grow. In 2010, the surplus was 175.4 million ounces. To get its annual supply-deficit figure, GFMS uses a certain equation: (Mine Production + Silver Scrap) – (Fabrication - Coin & Medal) = Surplus- Deficit If we plug in 2010's figures this is the result: (735.9 + 215) = 950.9 – (878.8 - 101.3) = 775.5 = +175.4 GFMS has decided that coin and medal demand should not be included in the Fabrication total but rather as a form of bullion supply. So the higher the coin and medal demand, the more it adds to the so-called silver surplus. The majority of this category of "Coin & Medal" consists of official government coins that are in high demand and are not of the type that would be sold for melt and recycled back into scrap supply. If we look at the chart below, we can see how GFMS has created this so-called silver surplus:  101.3 million of those 175.4 million oz of so-called surplus came from coin & medal demand in 2010. I find it interesting that GFMS has decided to treat the "Coin & Medal Category" (the majority of which are coins not readily available for melt and recycle) as supply rather than demand, but allow silver scrap from recycled fabrication to be used as a form of supply. If we think about it for a minute, the whole idea of a surplus as expressed by GFMS is nothing more than an accounting gimmick. In 2010, there was 215 million oz of silver scrap added to the total supply. A large portion of this amount came from recycling silver from industrial scrap. Every year a certain amount of silver supply goes into industrial fabrication and of that amount, a percentage gets recycled into silver scrap which becomes supply in the following years. Ask yourself this question… what would be considered more of future supply? Would it be comprised of official government coins that are in high demand and held for many years for their investment potential or a percentage of recycled silver from industrial fabrication? Even if investors sell Silver Eagles or Silver Maples back to a dealer, that dealer normally resells these coins back to other investors. These coins are the least likely to be melted and recycled. Even if we were to go by the GFMS and their silver surplus vs. deficit figures, there is another interesting trend taking place. As coin and investment demand has risen, so has the price of silver. During the years attributed to a silver deficit, the price of silver remained relatively flat. As the so-called surplus has increased, so has the price of silver. Either way, silver investment is pushing the price of silver higher. There have been several analysts who have stated that future silver surpluses will keep a lid on the price of silver. Here we can see that this is not the case at all. On the contrary, it has been due to investment demand that both the price of silver and the so-called surplus supply have grown. The Coming Paradigm Shift in Silver This is the subject of my next article which will be out shortly. The paper-backed situation in the world's economies and financial system is grim. Silver should be priced at a level several times higher than it presently trading. Too many investors are becoming hypnotized by the technical analysis. However, technical analysis is a valuable tool in a FREE MARKET. Unfortunately, the markets and the silver charts are being manipulated while analysts who recreate these charts in their articles may not realize that they are actually helping the manipulators do their work by legitimizing its function on the internet's financial websites. Even though supply and demand factors contribute to the price of silver, it will be the shift in psychology that will propel the price of silver towards the heavens. This psychology has been slowing changing as the graphs above reveal an interesting trend taking place in the U.S. and Canada. In 2002 both countries produced 87.5 million oz of silver and sold 11 million Silver Eagles and Maple Leaf coins. These coins sales accounted for 12.6% of U.S. and Canadian silver production. In 2011, just nine years later, the U.S. and Canada are estimated to mine only 53.6 million oz of silver combined, while their total Silver Eagle and Maple Leaf coin sales are to surpass approximately 62.5 million. Thus, their coin sales are 16% greater than their total domestic silver mine supplies. Investors in increasing numbers over the years have been buying physical silver. While this number is growing, it is still a fraction of a fraction of the country's population. Even though 40 million Silver Eagles were sold in 2011, this accounts for one coin for every eight Americans. The Great Stampede in Silver is yet to come. UPDATE: Since the completion of this article, the U.S. Mint has updated its 2011 American Silver Eagle sales. The grand total for 2011 turns out to be 39.8 million Silver Eagles sales while the month of January 2012 starts off with a whopping 3,197,000 sales on the first business day of the year. This is speculation on my part, but instead of updating the Silver Eagle figures during the last few days of 2011(as it normally does on a more regular basis), the U.S. Mint decided to dump all the remaining sales onto January 2012. Steve St. Angelo http://www.silverseek.com/article/si...s-supply-slips |
| Gold is money?! Indians to pay for Iranian oil with gold Posted: 24 Jan 2012 10:28 PM PST |
| The Coming Dollar Downleg And Gold Upleg Posted: 24 Jan 2012 09:00 PM PST |
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, January 25, 2012 Posted: 24 Jan 2012 09:00 PM PST |
| David Franklin on Gold and Silver Posted: 24 Jan 2012 08:53 PM PST Sprott's David Franklin Talks Gold & Silver Stocks ~TVR |
| Posted: 24 Jan 2012 08:49 PM PST Many commodity prices fell last year as the euro crisis and slowing growth in emerging markets dampened demand. American crude oil, one of the few commodities whose price rose, is now 10% more expensive after a volatile year. Oil prices peaked in April, then dropped back when Libyan supplies came back online and economic prospects improved. The same gloomy outlook helped to boost gold—increasingly seen as safe haven for investors—to record prices. Cooper prices also reached record highs, driven by emerging-market demand, before falling back by the end of the year. Crop prices dropped thanks to bumper harvests for cereals, oils and wheat. Concerns over the supply of orange juice have pushed prices to a record high this week. A destructive fungicide was found in an orange shipment from Brazil, the world's largest producer of orange juice. CLICK IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW ~TVR |
| Gold for Oil? India and Iran Ditch the Dollar? Posted: 24 Jan 2012 08:28 PM PST ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverThe gold price did little in Far East trading on Tuesday. But, as is frequently the case, the high in the Far East came just before the London open...and it was, as is also frequently the case, all down hill from there...with the low of the day coming shortly after 9:00 a.m. in New York. After the low was in, the gold price gained a few dollars and then traded sideways into the close of the New York Access market at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time. Gold closed the Tuesday trading session at $1,666.40 spot...down $9.90 on the day. Gross volume was a monstrous 190,000 contracts, but once all the roll-overs out of the February contract were removed, the net volume imploded to a very small 85,000 contracts.
Silver's Far East high also came shortly before the London open...and its low came at 1:00 p.m. in London right on the button...which was 8:00 a.m. in New York...exactly twenty minutes before the Comex began to trade. The subsequent rally hit its zenith at 10:45 a.m. Eastern, before getting sold down to the $32 spot level...and from there it traded sideways into the close of electronic trading. Silver closed at $32.05 spot...down 30 cents on the day. Approximate net volume was a rather small 27,000 contracts.
The dollar index didn't do a lot yesterday. It had a small rally between 9:00 a.m. in London and 9:00 a.m. in New York, before selling off and closing virtually unchanged from Monday. The only thing of note regarding the dollar index was that the tiny rally made it through the 80 cent level, but couldn't hold even that small gain. Here's the 2-day chart starting right from the Monday morning Far East open at 6:00 p.m. New York time on Sunday night.
Like the Dow, the gold stocks gapped down at the open...and then proceeded to slide further as the trading day progressed. At the close, the HUI was down 2.17%...despite the fact that the gold price was only down ten bucks.
The silver shares were on the ropes all day long...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down 1.87%.
(Click on image to enlarge) With the January delivery month winding down, so are the physical deliveries between traders in the Comex futures market. The CME's Daily Delivery Report yesterday showed that only 2 gold and 5 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. There were no reported changes in GLD...but SLV reported a withdrawal of 194,397 troy ounces of silver, which might have been a fee payment of some kind. That's the first withdrawal from SLV since January 5th. The U.S. Mint did not have a sales report on Tuesday. Well, the forklifts were certainly busy over at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday. They reported receiving 991,700 troy ounces of silver...and they shipped 1,522,467 ounces of the stuff out the door...for a net decline of 530,767 ounces. The link to that action, which is worth a peek, is here. Here's a set of graphs that Nick Laird sent me in the wee hours of this morning...and I thought I'd stick in here, since I have quite a few graphs in 'The Wrap' already.
(Click on image to enlarge) I'm happy to report that I don't have that many stories for you today...and after the twenty-six that I posted in my Tuesday column, I'm sure you're just as grateful. John Embry and I both feel that 'da boyz' are foolin' with the shares as well as the metal prices themselves. Murray Pollitt: Gold is the uninvited guest. John Embry: Gold is the Cure to Epic Monetary Debasement. Silver Sales Up As Supply Slips. The Demise of the Petrodollar? ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeEconomic and Social Turmoil Risk Reversing the Gains of Globalization, Report WarnsThe world's vulnerability to further economic shocks and social upheaval risk undermining the progress that globalization has brought, warns the World Economic Forum in its Global Risks 2012 report, the seventh edition, published yesterday. Chronic fiscal imbalances and severe income disparity are the risks seen as most prevalent over the next 10 years. These risks in tandem threaten global growth as they are drivers of nationalism, populism and protectionism at a time when the world remains vulnerable to systemic financial shocks, as well as possible food and water crises. These are the findings of a survey of 469 experts and industry leaders, indicating a shift of concern from environmental risks to socioeconomic risks compared to a year ago. "For the first time in generations, many people no longer believe that their children will grow up to enjoy a higher standard of living than theirs," said Lee Howell, the World Economic Forum Managing Director responsible for the report. "This new malaise is particularly acute in the industrialized countries that historically have been a source of great confidence and bold ideas." This story from the New World Order crowd is a must read. It was posted on the businesswire.com website on January 11th...and I thank reader Ken Metcalfe for sending it along. The link is here.  Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King warns elite to rein in payThe Governor of the Bank of England has warned Britain's business and banking elite to rein in pay and bonuses or risk sparking a rebellion against capitalism in its current form. In a speech to business figures in Brighton setting out the "arduous, long and uneven" path to recovery this year, Sir Mervyn King said the key to restoring growth would be "above all else ... to maintain support for a market economy and an open world trading system". Coming in the week that the Coalition laid out proposals to rein in excessive executive pay, Sir Mervyn said: "The legitimacy of a market economy will inevitably be challenged if rewards go disproportionately to a small elite, especially one which benefited from the support of taxpayers. Mervyn has a keen grasp of the obvious in this story posted in yesterday's edition of The Telegraph. It's a fairly short read...and worth it if you have the time. It's also Roy Stephens first offering the of the day...and the link is here.  Euro Aid from the ESM: EU Reaches Agreement on Permanent Bailout FundEuro-zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday night finalized the treaty governing the permanent euro bailout fund, the ESM. The deal paves the way for the ESM to take effect in July, a year earlier than planned. German Finance Minister Schäuble also said that final agreement had been reached on tighter euro-zone budgetary rules. The 17 euro-zone countries have reached agreement on the contract for the permanent euro bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), clearing the way for the aid fund to be launched one year earlier than planned. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the group of euro-zone finance ministers, announced the agreement following a Monday night meeting in Brussels. The ESM is now set to replace the temporary European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) on July 1, a year earlier than originally planned. This is posted over at the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and is courtesy of Roy Stephens as well. The link is here.  Luxembourg's Foreign Minister: Merkel's Fiscal Pact a 'Waste of Time and Energy'Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn is sharply critical of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's push for an EU fiscal pact. In an interview with SPIEGEL ONLINE, he says it won't hold up. Furthermore, big countries like Germany and France threaten the currency union with their egotism, he says. No shades of grey in this spiegel.de interview from yesterday. It's Roy's third offering of the day...and the link is here.  Greek Economy on Track to Implode: HankeWhether or not Greece is able to reach an agreement on the restructuring of its debt, the country is set to "implode" as the economy contracts, according to John Hopkins University's Steve Hanke. "The game is completely over," Hanke, professor of applied economics, said at the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Crisis Conference in New York hosted by Bloomberg Link. "All the calculations are nonsense and have been since day one. Since the crisis began the money supply has been shrinking and the economy is going to implode, no matter what they do in the short run." No surprises here. I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending me this Bloomberg story yesterday. It's definitely worth skimming...and the link is here.  Gold for Oil: India and Iran Ditch Dollar - ReportAccording to a new and yet unconfirmed report, India bought oil from Iran using gold. India certainly has the gold resources to fund the oil, while Iran is under pressure by the West, due the continuation of its nuclear program. This "new and yet unconfirmed report" the above story refers to, first showed up over at the debka.com website on Monday...and I had several sharp-eyed readers send it to me. Now a lot of other websites [including Russia Today] have gone with this story...and it has now developed a life of its own, true or not. Of course I'm hoping that it's all true...but I'll wait for further confirmation...as does the forexcrunch.com website where this story came from...and rightfully so. This is a must read...and I thank Elliot Simon for sharing it with us. The link is here.  The Demise of the Petrodollar: The World of Energy"Rumors are swirling that India and Iran are at the negotiating table right now, hammering out a deal to trade oil for gold. Why does that matter, you ask? Only because it strikes at the heart of both the value of the US dollar and today's high-tension standoff with Iran." - Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist, Casey Research. The above paragraph led off yesterday's absolute must read edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch...and the link is here. Don't go any further until you've read this piece! This Is Where The Gold Is(n't) - The New York Fed Guide To The Most Valuable Vault In The World Posted: 24 Jan 2012 08:28 PM PST  If your knowledge of the vault is limited to the perspective of one John McClane, you are missing our on a lot. Which is why the new York Fed, in those rare occasions when it is not monetizing debt, and/or telling Citadel which securities to buy, has been courteous enough to put together "The Key To The Gold Vault" - the official brochure of the warehouse where more gold is stored than at any other place in the world. This very interesting zerohedge.com piece from yesterday was sent to me by Australian reader Wesley Legrand...and the link is here. |
| The Demise of the Petrodollar: The World of Energy Posted: 24 Jan 2012 08:28 PM PST  "Rumors are swirling that India and Iran are at the negotiating table right now, hammering out a deal to trade oil for gold. Why does that matter, you ask? Only because it strikes at the heart of both the value of the US dollar and today's high-tension standoff with Iran." - Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist, Casey Research. The above paragraph led off yesterday's absolute must read edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch...and the link is here. Don't go any further until you've read this piece! |
| Gold for Oil: India and Iran Ditch Dollar - Report Posted: 24 Jan 2012 08:28 PM PST  According to a new and yet unconfirmed report, India bought oil from Iran using gold. India certainly has the gold resources to fund the oil, while Iran is under pressure by the West, due the continuation of its nuclear program. This "new and yet unconfirmed report" the above story refers to, first showed up over at the debka.com website on Monday...and I had several sharp-eyed readers send it to me. Now a lot of other websites [including Russia Today] have gone with this story...and it has now developed a life of its own, true or not. |
| Murray Pollitt: Gold is the uninvited guest Posted: 24 Jan 2012 08:28 PM PST  Resource broker and market analyst Murray Pollitt of Pollitt & Co. in Toronto writes in his January market letter that central bank price suppression has devastated the gold industry and dramatically reduced supply just when currencies are blowing up and taxes and geopolitical risk are reducing supply as well. Pollitt thinks 2012 will be the year when the chickens come home to roost. This absolute must read essay is posted over at the gata.org website...and I thank Chris Powell for wordsmithing the introduction. The link is here. |
| John Embry - Gold is the Cure to Epic Monetary Debasement Posted: 24 Jan 2012 08:28 PM PST  Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells Eric King that people seeking to buy dips in gold now aren't getting any, because gold was driven down too far in the paper market at the end of 2011. John Embry's blog is posted over at the King World News website...and the link is here. |
| 'Mania' in Junior Mining Stocks Predicted: Fayyaz Alimohamed Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:00 PM PST Fayyaz Alimohamed, CEO of Altair Ventures Inc. and publisher of the Acamar Journal, offers historical perspective and predictions on the global economic crisis. In this exclusive Gold Report... Visit the aureport.com for more information and for a free newsletter |
| Sovereigns Declare War on US Dollar Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:02 PM PST Neptune Global |
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