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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

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Is Gold a “Gotta-Have” Investment? Some Don't Think So

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 05:43 AM PDT

There's a saying in the investment business that when the taxi driver and the delivery person are talking about a "no-lose, gotta-have" investment, it's time to run for the exits. At that point of maximum adoration and comfort, the masses have gone wild and that's often the warning that the smart money is on its way to the exits and the novices will be trampled in the exodus. Think technology stock bubble in 2000, or house flipping three years ago. Now, think gold. Words: 538

Pension Funds: Why $5,000 Gold May Be Too Low!

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 05:43 AM PDT

You already know the basic reasons for owning gold -- currency protection, inflation hedge, store of value, calamity insurance -- many of which are becoming clichés even in mainstream articles. Throw in the supply and demand imbalance, and you've got the basic arguments for why one should hold gold for the foreseeable future. [T]here is another driver of the price, however, that escapes many gold watchers and certainly the mainstream media [a]nd I'm convinced that once this sleeping giant wakes, it could ignite the gold market like nothing we've ever seen. [Let me explain.] Words: 788

Sprott: Gold is NOT Forming a Financial Bubble – Here's Why

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 05:43 AM PDT

Despite gold's continuous ten-year rise...[which has] produced consistent returns in virtually all currencies year after year, some market pundits still question its validity as an asset class...[but our analysis of the gold market clearly shows that...,] despite all this talk about the gold bubble, the capital flows into gold vis-à-vis other financial assets have simply not been large enough to indicate any speculative mania. [Let us show you the results of our finds.] Words: 1460

What You Need To Know Before Jumping Into Gold And Silver

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 05:43 AM PDT

As the global economy becomes increasingly unstable investors all over the world are flocking to gold and silver which has sent the price of gold to a record high. With many analysts projecting that prices for precious metals will continue to soar throughout 2011 investors are euphoric. Does that mean, though, that everyone should just suddenly jump into gold and silver? No, it does not. Precious metals are not for everyone. Just like any other kind of investing, it is absolutely crucial that you get educated before you get involved. Below are 10 things you should know before jumping into the precious metals market. Words: 1156

It's Time To Sell Your Stocks and Buy Gold! Here's Why

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 05:43 AM PDT

The S&P 500 has rebounded about 100% in 100 weeks. What crisis? What new normal? The economy is recovering and happy times are back again. Old normal is back. Stocks for the long run! Permabears be damned! The permabulls are back! Rates are low, core inflation is low. It's Goldilocks time! [Hold on, though. That's only half the picture and the other half does not paint such a rosy picture. Let me explain.] Words: 959

Goldrunner: PM Stocks Positioned to Move Much Higher – Soon

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 05:43 AM PDT

I am at a loss for words (something that rarely happens to me) as to why so many in the gold and silver sector have become so negative at this juncture in this Historic Precious Metals Bull Market. No doubt many have "2008-itis", thinking that the Dow is going to crash [but my analyses of the PM market suggests that that is not going to be the case. Let me explain.] Words: 2497

Why Would Japan Sell Treasuries?

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 05:15 AM PDT

Mercenary Trader submits:

By Jack Sparrow

Just a very quick observation as we prepare for a wild day (S&P down 35 handles in early trade, bonds and USD up big. Portfolio contagion is kicking in too, with gold down nearly $40 per ounce.)

So here is the observation (or rather question): Why would Japan sell Treasuries?

Initial response to the catastrophe included a calculation that, as one of the top holders of USTs, Japan would be dumping U.S. government securities on the market to fund reconstruction. But does that chain of logic really make sense?

  • Japan has other forms of securities it can sell (including euro-denominated bonds).
  • Now more than ever, with exporters hurting, an overly strong yen is a dangerously toxic proposition for Japan.
  • Exacerbating "big seller" Treasury fears would feed USD weakness, in

Complete Story »

Nuclear ETF Meltdown: Four Funds Rocked by the Japanese Quake

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 04:52 AM PDT

ETF Database submits:

The earthquake that hit northern Japan on Friday thoroughly devastated a significant portion of the Japanese countryside, leaving thousands dead and hundreds of thousands homeless. While the loss of life and property due to the quake and tsunami was catastrophic, the events last week appear to be just the start of the country's problems, as many are growing extremely concerned over a situation brewing at one of the country's 53 nuclear power reactors.

At the Fukushima nuclear power plant, the earthquake and ensuing tsunami set off a chain of events that have made it difficult to cool the uranium off to prevent the reactors from overheating. With fears over a full-scale nuclear meltdown intensifying, investors fled the nuclear power and uranium industries on Monday, sending prices sharply lower.

Investors are growing increasingly worried that the explosions at the plant, and possible slack demand from countries around the world could set


Complete Story »

Trophy Shares on Hathor, Buying Op Getting Underway for Miners

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 04:52 AM PDT

HOUSTON – The world seems to be in a panic this Tuesday morning. Our hearts and prayers are with the Japanese people today, and no matter how much "damage" the remaining portions of our positions end up sustaining due to this Nippon black swan event, we cannot blame any of it on the Japanese. They (and we) are victims of a brutal natural disaster cascade event. We've said it before and we say it now again, natural disasters are buying ops of the first order, but not necessarily right away.

Japan: A Time for Brave Investors

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 04:43 AM PDT

Larry MacDonald submits:

"Japan appears to be losing control of its nuclear crisis after fresh explosions at an atomic plant north of Tokyo released more radiation into the air…" said an article this morning on the website of the Financial Times of London. It's indeed looking quite dire, as confirmed by the 10% collapse in the Nikkei 225 on Tuesday (Japanese time), which follows a 6% plunge on Monday and a 2% drop on Friday.

I posted Friday on how well regional stock markets recovered in the aftermath of the 2005 earthquake-tsunami to hit Indonesia. The Japanese situation is now moving toward a nuclear catastrophe, which suggests a more severe disaster – yet also a greater potential for stock-market recovery (from a deeper low).

The Bank of Japan has announced a massive increase in monetary stimulus. The Japanese government will be announcing a massive fiscal response to rebuild and keep the economy going.


Complete Story »

Exporting Inflation: Oil vs. Equities

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 04:33 AM PDT

e21 submits:

By Christopher Papagianis

In semi-annual testimony before both houses of Congress, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke expressed concern about "significant increases in some highly visible prices, including those of gasoline and other commodities," but then quickly downplayed their significance for monetary policy. The price increases, in Bernanke's telling, reflected rising demand for raw materials and have been reflected in all major currencies, not just the dollar. Moreover, the phrase "highly visible" suggests Bernanke's concern is less with the commodity price inflation itself as it is with the public's overreaction to it.

At the same time that Bernanke argued that Fed policy has nothing to do with price increases in food and commodities, he was very eager to take credit for increases in the prices of stocks, corporate bonds, and other assets:

… market indicators support[s] the view that the Federal Reserve's recent actions have been effective. For example, since August, when


Complete Story »

Why Is the Dollar Finding a Safe Haven Bid?

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 04:13 AM PDT

Marc Chandler submits:
The jasmine revolutions in MENA and euro-era high yields on the peripheral of Europe failed to give the US dollar a safe haven bid. And yet today, it is difficult to deny the greenback is benefitting from the broader risk aversion.
Previously I explained the lack of dollar safe haven bid by noting that it was precisely because US Treasuries were a safe haven, that the dollar was not, in the sense that 1) the market was particularly sensitive to the divergence of monetary policy and 2) the interest rate spread between the US and Germany widened. Now while US Treasuries have rallied, German bunds have rallied more so. The 2-year interest rate differential has moved 7 bp in the US favor today and now stands at 97 bp the lowest since before the March 3 ECB meeting in which signalled a near-term rate hike.
Separately, but related to this,

Complete Story »

Japans Nuclear Crisis Leads to Panic - Nikkei Crashes 17% in 2 Days…

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 02:30 AM PDT

gold.ie

SLV ishares Silver Call volume July 16 expiry irregular, $US dollar rolls off 77

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 01:01 AM PDT

Look below. People buying SLV calls for July. Nice sale here. Volume and Time/Sales doesn't lie, its speaks the truth.

On a day like today, don't forget your stop losses

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 12:59 AM PDT

From The Reformed Broker:

There are only a few "free lunches" on Wall Street, and most of them are at dingy strip club buffets. Of the handful of true, honest-to-god free lunches, diversification and the stop loss are the ones I emphasize most in my practice.

Today we'll talk about stop losses and what they bring to the table in a tape like this one.

Essentially, the stop loss is here to keep your assumptions from losing you money. We all make assumptions about events, like the Fukushima plant meltdown, but most of them are made in a vacuum of historical context.

We've already gone way past 1979's Three Mile Island disaster (during which many traders were not even born) and are now approaching a potential Chernobyl scenario. The trouble with the Chernobyl comparison, economically speaking, is that it occurred behind Russia's communist Iron Curtain and not in the world's third-largest economy like the disaster we face today.

Current estimates are for the death of 10,000 Japanese people and over $200 billion in costs. Unfortunately, even these are just estimates. Assumptions.

Traders and investors will be operating under all sorts of assumptions right now...

Read full article...

More on investing:

How to invest for the "end of the world"

This is one of the biggest mistakes any investor can make

Market guru Montier: The seven immutable laws of investing

Japan in FREEFALL: Nikkei plunges more than 10% overnight on growing nuclear disaster

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 12:52 AM PDT

From Bloomberg:

Stocks and U.S. futures fell, with the Nikkei 225 index posting its biggest two-day drop since 1987, while commodities slid and Treasurys jumped on concern a nuclear disaster is unfolding in Japan. Bahrain credit risk soared after Saudi troops entered the nation.

The MSCI World Index of stocks fell 2.3 percent, while the Nikkei dropped 10.6 percent to the lowest since April 2009 and Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures tumbled 2.8 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slid 11 basis points to 3.24 percent and the two-year German note yield fell 13 basis points, adding to its longest run of declines since November 2009. The Swiss franc strengthened against its 16 most-traded peers while oil lost 2.6 percent. Credit-default swaps insuring Japanese debt climbed to a record and Bahrain contracts jumped to a 1 1/2-year high.

Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s stricken nuclear power plant was rocked by two explosions today as workers struggled to avert a meltdown that may lead to more radiation leaks in the wake of the March 11 earthquake. Saudi Arabian troops moved into Bahrain as part of a regional force in the first cross-border intervention since popular uprisings swept through parts of the Middle East.

"In addition to the tragic events in Japan, the market had to contend with a potential escalation of the Middle East situation," Gary Jenkins, head of fixed-income at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London, wrote in a client note. "It would not be a surprise if the significant price moves of the last couple of days did not lead to problems elsewhere in the financial system."

Biggest Drop

The Nikkei 225's one-day drop was the biggest since October 2008. South Korea's Kospi Index sank 2.4 percent, the most in four months, while Taiwan's Taiex Index retreated 3.4 percent, the most since February 2010. Credit-default swaps on Japan's government debt soared 25.8 basis points to a record 122.3, according to CMA.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 3.3 percent as the VStoxx Index, which gauges the cost of protecting against declines in the region's shares, surged 38 percent. Volkswagen AG and Daimler AG led automakers lower, tumbling 6.5 percent and 5.3 percent respectively. German utilities RWE AG and E.ON AG fell more than 3 percent each after Chancellor Angela Merkel put plans to extend the life of the nation's nuclear plants on hold for three months.

The slide in S&P 500 futures indicated the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities will decline for the fourth time in five days. Reports today may show manufacturing growth in the New York region picked up pace this month and the cost of goods imported into the U.S. rose in February, according to Bloomberg surveys of economists.

30-Year Treasury

The 30-year Treasury bond yield slid 9 basis points to 4.44 percent, with the 10-year yield declining to the lowest since Dec. 10. The Fed will keep its main interest rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent today, according to all 101 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The 10-year German bund yield dropped 12 basis points to 3.11 percent, while the yield on the two-year note sank 13 basis points to 1.51 percent.

Belgium said it postponed a sale of six-year bonds because of market volatility caused by the Japan nuclear crisis.

Credit-default swaps on Bahrain jumped 20 basis points to 334, the highest since July 2009, according to CMA. Contracts on Japan soared 26 basis points to a record 122, and Tepco rose 253.5 basis points to an all-time high 402.5, up from 40.5 basis points on March 11. The Bloomberg GCC 200 Index of Persian Gulf shares sank 2.7 percent and Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index lost 3.6 percent, the biggest slide in almost two weeks.

Oil Tumbles

Brent crude for April settlement fell to $110.72 a barrel as Japanese refinery shutdowns reduce the demand for oil. U.S. gasoline futures fell as much as 4.1 percent to $2.8393 a gallon in New York electronic trading, the biggest intraday drop since Oct. 19, 2010. Natural gas futures rallied for a third day, advancing 1.2 percent on the New York Mercantile Exchange to $3.959 a million British thermal units on expectations Japan will require more gas for power generation after the nuclear disaster.

Copper for delivery in three months fell 2 percent to $9,007 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, leading a decline in industrial metals. Silver for immediate delivery retreated 3.5 percent to $34.66 an ounce, dropping for the first time in three days. Platinum, palladium and gold also fell.

Derivatives tied to rates for capesize ships used to haul coal and iron ore also fell, on speculation the earthquake will disrupt demand. Forward-freight agreements, traded by brokers and used to hedge or bet on future shipping rates, dropped 6.1 percent to $14,300 a day, according to data from Clarkson Securities Ltd., a broker of the contracts.

To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Armstrong in London at Parmstrong10@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net.

More on Japan:

Massive 8.9-magnitude earthquake rocks Japan

Moody's: Quake will push Japan closer to fiscal "tipping point"

Japanese nuclear crisis sends these high-flying uranium stocks plummeting

APMEX Service Unavailable

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 12:50 AM PDT

Site crashed briefly. Thats your insider info for you. GOT PHYSICAL? Silver buy velocity commencing. Good luck Blythe. You are creating your own mess here.

Tax HORROR: In two weeks, the U.S. will have the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world

Posted: 15 Mar 2011 12:46 AM PDT

From Carpe Diem:

... "There is increasing recognition in Washington that the U.S. corporate tax rate is out of step with the lower tax rates of most industrialized and emerging nations. Indeed, 2011 marks the 20th year in which the U.S. statutory tax rate has been above the simple average of non-U.S. countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

It is now well known that with a combined federal and state corporate tax rate of 39.2 percent, the U.S. has the second highest overall rate among OECD nations...

The U.S. is less than a month away from having the highest overall corporate tax rate in the industrialized world, when...

Read full article (with chart)...

More on taxes:

Capital controls are coming to the United States

The IRS just issued a new ruling on this popular gold investment

Why the record amount of U.S. corporate cash isn't helping investors...

The dealer spread is widening

Posted: 14 Mar 2011 11:59 PM PDT

Just checked a major online dealer, and the spread on gold has increased from $45.99 per oz to $69.99 per oz. :vollkommenauf:

Guess they don't like those big price drops.

Nothing like a 6% drop in Silver

Posted: 14 Mar 2011 11:52 PM PDT

THE ONLY COMMODITY BEATING SILVER DECLINES RIGHT NOW IS SUGAR. FUBM. Look at the $US chart. Then compare it to silver. We should bounce here off $33.50. I guess we are at 30% of David Morgans prediction in last 10 hours. This is noise to me. Remember that Bahrain and Lybia are still on fire. The only thing that may be green today is TINKA (I hope) and Netflix (LOL-Im not kidding look at it)

Where will silver bottom out?

Posted: 14 Mar 2011 11:46 PM PDT

Just curious for some predictions on where silver will bottom out. I know all predictions are just that: guesses.

You think we'll go down just a few dollars? Or down to, let's pretend, $15?

Trader Rog’s Market Report

Posted: 14 Mar 2011 09:45 PM PDT

Latest week ended market technicals.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 12044.40 +59.79 after a see-saw day on some better news but lots of bad news from Asia regarding the earthquake. Volume was normal on falling momentum. Price has been channeled sideways for several days due to Middle Eastern and other bad credit events. While today was generally a down day, the Dow managed to stay in the green and remain in the upward bull channel. Resistance is 12050 and support is 1200 with price staying above the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Price is supported and we should begin to see resumption of more buying of shares next week.

S&P 100 Index: Closed at 585.34 +3.61 falling under the 20-day average at 590.14 and the lower channel support trading range line. However, the price remains above the 50 and 200-day moving averages. Momentum is falling but volume is normal. While the price is under key support on the channel line, it appears to be clinging to the bottom of it. This usually means the price will rebound and rise enough to return into the channel. The 50-day is 585.09 giving solid support with the 200-day back at 546.67. Often slower to respond, since this index covers the larger companies, we are not surprised to see larger negative sell signals and expect price to move bullish next week.

S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1304.28 +9.17 on normal volume and falling momentum. Price had gone into a tight triangle and chose to fall through the bottom on bad jobs reports and negative Middle Eastern news earlier this week. Yet, the price remains above the 50-day and 200-day averages and also above 1300 major support. Resistance is 1307 and 1310-1315.  Also the 20-day average is resistance at 1313.74. However, these traders got the gift of a Friday close above 1300, which they were very worried about. Consequently, we think all is well with the bigger traders to move the S&P higher next week and drive up the prices of shares.

Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2299.26 +14.97 on 110% of normal volume and falling momentum. For awhile today, it appeared the Nazz would crumble and take with it the other stock indexes. Price fell out of the bottom of continuation triangle and closed under all the moving averages. Yet, on the other hand the price is firmly supported and stuck on hard support and resistance at 2300. Further, while we flirted with 2250 and lower disaster we never got there. Traders might find reasons to not buy on Monday but we see more reasons than ever to stay invested and buy more for the next 4-5 weeks before potential spring selling at the end of March or the first ten days of April.  Prolonging this selling on weakness means a harder selling event when its time to exit shares in about 4-5 weeks.

XAU Index: Closed at 206.81 +3.89 on peaking and turning down momentum and selling metal to shares ratio. The ratio is always about 90% correct so we could see more selling to the 200-day average at 199.08 and the lower channel line nearly on top of each other. I think the 200-day holds up selling this price back to 199.00-200.00 and then finding new support. We still contend the XAU can rise with 2-3 more selling cycles all the way to middle May. The overall increase should take the index from 200 to 230-240 before we are done with the cycle. Silver in particular could drag up this index faster than most anything with recent buy side power. Expect a drop to 199 on Monday followed by a pivot reverse and more buying back to 210 resistance.

30-Year Treasury Bonds: Closed at 120.28 as price was bouncing this week between 118.50 and 120.68. Credit markets are a mess as the larger news was Pimco announcing they were out of all US Bonds worth billions. I think Chopper Ben bought them back by pre-arrangement from Bill Gross as the market did not even blink on the news. Further, Benny's last auction was only 20% subscribed and he had to buy back the rest himself to put in on the federal reserve shelf and mark it "sold." Bonds have been in a bear selling channel since December and selling from a peak even earlier when last October they doubled topped to sink for good. New support and resistance is 120.00. Bonds are in trouble under 117.50. The top of the bear channeled trading range is now 121.50 with lower channel support at 118.00. Once under 118.00 and it holds, bonds enter scary-land and potential for a skid to 1115.50 in a blink. We say it's coming despite manipulation.

Gold: Closed at 1417.40 -12.20 on fallen but now supporting momentum. New support is 1415 with resistance at 1422.50. The bull gold channeled trading range is gradually squeezing tighter toward the day then price must make a leap above the trading range and keep going, or stumble and finally begin  a selling cycle. Buying pressures on gold and silver have greatly expanded overseas; especially in Asia where inflation is turning nasty. Our forecast April top should range between 1450 and 1507. Our 2011 high for the December futures is predicted at 1607. Those are technical forecasts. Should geopolitical events go really sour, those numbers could be easily exceeded.

Silver: Closed at 35.89 +0.30 after momentum paused and then resumed the rally. The trading range on this Friday, for futures was $2.13. Only two years ago, the daily limit up was $1.50.  Like gold, we project a cycle top for silver in mid-April. That price could be between $45 and $51. Please keep in mind that silver has been ballistic in the last four weeks. This kind of trading action ends in a quick overnight peak and then does a waterfall sell. Trees do not grow to the sky. Our longer range silver prices are way beyond $51, but when the price begins to sniff a hard top between $45 and $51, you better be ready for some serious selling. A $48-$48.50-$51 top could quickly visit $30-$35 in a flash on profit-taking. That old high of $50, from 1980, remains in play. Traders will be taking profits with both hands as that one is hit or, when price gets near it.

US Dollar: Closed at 76.69 +0.29 on flat to down momentum and price barely clinging to the lower channel trading range bar on 76.50 support. There were two closes under the support line. The next time it goes there we could see a larger collapse of 3-5 points down to 71.50-72.00. There is hard support at 72.50 and a weaker one at 71.00 and change. I can see the dollar dropping more in waves 4 and 5 to finish the selling cycle. Next support is 75.00, probably before the end of March.

Crude Oil: Closed at 100.67 -3.89 with 100.00 being support and 103.00 resistance. Momentum is mildly up and price is pushing up against the top channel trading range line. The breakout normally comes on the third try and number two is next. After the summer gasoline build is completed in May, look for a top at 115-125. Later this year, we could see higher prices on new inflation, further problems in the Middle East and arguments with wrong-headed government policy.

CRB Index: Closed at 351.86 -2.59 on peaking momentum (oil) and finding support on the 20-day average at 351.71. Oil gapped the CRB down this week from 360 and we expect it to rise again to fill that price gap. Before the Lehman event, the CRB hit 475 and could see this happen again this summer. Should the fall turn into another Lehman-like crash performance, and it appears the chart pattern set-ups are going that way, we could see a repeat performance with the index adding another 125 points from a major base at 350.00. Oil is the leader but metals, grain and softs are all going to rocket rise on high inflation. Resistance is 360 and that is our forecast for the next trading week. -Traderrog


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Dollar Depressed by OPEC Slashing Treasury Holdings 9% as Oil Profits Rise

Posted: 14 Mar 2011 08:53 PM PDT

Here's a Bloomberg story from yesterday that was sent to me by reader Scott Pluschau.

Treasuries owned by oil producers and institutions such as U.K. banks that are proxies for Middle East nations fell 9 percent in the second half of 2010 to $654.6 billion, the first decline in the final six months of a year since the Treasury Department began compiling the data in 2006. The sales may continue, if history is any guide, because Barclays Plc says Middle East petroleum exporting nations have traditionally placed only 25 percent of their savings in dollar-based assets.  The link is here.

Debunking the Gold Bubble Myth

Posted: 14 Mar 2011 08:53 PM PDT

Well, it has turned into an Eric Sprott double header today.  My last item is Eric Sprott's monthly MARKETS AT A GLANCE commentary.  This one runs three pages and a bit...and like every other commentary that come from either Eric Sprott or John Embry...it's a must read...and the link is here.

Rocket Launch in gold Will Shock the Markets

Posted: 14 Mar 2011 08:53 PM PDT

Here's a story from a GATA release yesterday.  I'm just going to steal Chris Powell's title...and all of his preamble...and claim it as my own.  Interviewed by King World News yesterday, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk stuck his neck out and remarked that the consolidations in gold and silver are ending and the precious metals likely will resume their moves up soon. The link to Turk's blog is here...and it's worth the read.

Market manipulation cited in Gold Report's interview with Eric and Larisa Sprott

Posted: 14 Mar 2011 08:53 PM PDT

This next story showed up as a GATA release yesterday...and I'm going to post it as it is.  The headline over at The Gold Report reads "The Sprotts Expect Silver to Keep on Sizzling"...and the link to the GATA release is here...and it's definitely a must read.

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