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Sunday, January 16, 2011

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Got Gold Report - COMEX Commercials Much Less Short Gold

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 05:07 AM PST

This offering is a special report for Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) similar to, but not quite as comprehensive as a full COT Flash Report. We want to highlight and comment on some over-sized changes in the positioning of the largest commercial traders of gold and silver futures on the COMEX division of the CME.

Precious Metals Default Scenarios

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 03:52 AM PST

For obvious reasons, there has been a great deal of discussion about actual, formal "defaults" in the gold and silver markets. Among those "obvious reasons" is that informal defaults are apparently already taking place in both markets.

Beginning in the London gold market over a year ago, and now rumored to be occurring in New York's "Comex" silver futures market, buyers who have legally contracted to take "physical delivery" of the metals they have purchased are said to be accepting large, paper bribes to accept a "cash settlement" instead.

There are many reasons for investors to take such "rumors" seriously. Empirically, we see the premiums being charged for physical bullion (even from large, established dealers) rising to levels never before seen (around the world). This strongly suggests a very tight market for bullion. This is confirmed through the anecdotal reports of both industrial users and large institutional investors (such as Sprott Asset Management) that they are having a great deal of difficulty locating any large quantities of bullion available for sale.

In theoretical terms, we are merely seeing the culmination of arrogant bankers attempting to defy the elementary laws of supply and demand for over a quarter of a century. Even those with no training in economics know the basic rule (since it is merely an expression of common sense): when prices rise, demand falls; when prices fall, demand rises.

There are many derivative principles which flow from this one basic law. Among the most salient (and the one apparently beyond the comprehension of bankers) is that if you under-price any good it will be over-consumed. I have demonstrated the unequivocal truth of this principle previously, and so will not do so again. Suffice it to say that in deliberately under-pricing gold and silver for well over a quarter of a century (through their relentless manipulation of these markets), the bankers have caused more than 25 years of excessive demand – where previous surpluses in these markets have been transformed into huge supply-deficits.

In the gold market, where virtually all of the bullion ever produced has been conserved, this distortion of markets has merely resulted in a massive transfer of bullion: out of the vaults of the West and into the vaults of the East. The situation in the silver market is entirely different.

Being both much cheaper than gold, and possessing even more superior chemical and metallurgical properties, silver was written off by those with no understanding of precious metals as merely an "industrial" commodity. As a matter of common sense, the rapid increase in industrial demand for silver must make it more "precious" rather than less so.

Illustrating this elementary logic, the combination of gross under-pricing and surging industrial demand has served to decimate global silver stockpiles and inventories. Noted silver researcher Ted Butler has estimated that global stockpiles of silver plummeted from over 6 billion ounces (fifty years ago) to approximately 1 billion ounces today. Silver is literally six times "more precious" today than it was a half-century earlier. In terms of "inventories" (the amount of silver actually available for sale today), the destruction caused by the bankers is even more apparent.

Between 1990 and 2005, global silver inventories plummeted by roughly 90%: from over 2 billion ounces to little more than 200,000 ounces. Since 2005, there has been a massive inventory-sham perpetrated by the bankers and the quasi-official "keeper of records" for the gold and silver sector: GFMS and the CPM Group. Through the farcical practice of adding the paper-bullion of silver "bullion-ETF's" to inventories and pretending this represents "new silver", inventories have magically "risen" by roughly 400% since then – despite the seemingly incongruous facts that silver demand has increased dramatically, while supply has remained flat.

In fact, any bullion actually held in a bullion-ETF cannot be an "inventory", since it fails to satisfy the basic definition: it is not for sale, but rather is privately held by the unit-holders of these funds. How can the holders of such funds sleep at night, knowing that the legal "custodian" of their bullion is telling the world that their silver is "for sale"?

GEAB N°51 is available! Systemic global crisis - 2011: The ruthless year, at the crossroads of three roads of global chaos

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 03:47 AM PST

- Public announcement GEAB N°51 (January 16, 2011) -
GEAB N°51 is available! Systemic global crisis - 2011: The ruthless year, at the crossroads of three roads of global chaos
This GEAB issue marks the fifth anniversary of the publication of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin. In January 2006, on the occasion of the first issue, the LEAP/E2020 team indicated that a period of four to seven years was opening up which would be characterized by the "Fall of the Dollar Wall", an event similar to the fall of the Berlin Wall which resulted, in the following years, in the collapse of the communist bloc then that of the USSR. Today, in this GEAB issue, which presents our thirty-two anticipations for 2011, we believe that the coming year will be a pivotal year in the roll out of this process between 2010 and 2013. It will be, in any case, a ruthless year because it will mark the entry into the terminal phase of the world before the crisis (1).

Since September 2008, when the evidence of the global and systemic nature of the crisis became clear to all, the United States, and behind it the Western countries, were content with palliative measures that have merely hidden the undermining effects of the crisis on the foundations of the present-day international system. 2011 will, according to our team, mark the crucial moment when, on the one hand, these palliative measures see their anesthetic effect fade away whilst, in contrast, the consequences of systemic dislocation in recent years will dramatically surge to the forefront (2).

In summary, 2011 will be marked by a series of violent shocks that will explode the faulty safety devices put in place since 2008 (3) and will carry off, one by one, the "pillars" on which the "Dollar Wall" has rested for decades. Only the countries, communities, organizations and individuals which, over the last three years, have actually undertaken to learn the lessons from the current crisis to distance themselves as quickly as possible from the pre-crisis patterns, values and behavior will get through this year unscathed; the others will be carried away in the procession of monetary, financial, economic, social and political difficulties that 2011 holds.

Thus, as we believe that 2011 will, globally, be the most chaotic year since 2006, the date of the beginning of our work on the crisis, in this GEAB issue our team has focused on 32 anticipations for 2011, which also include a number of recommendations to deal with future shocks. Thus, this GEAB issue offers a kind of map forecasting financial, monetary, political, economic and social shocks for the next twelve months.

If our team believes that 2011 will be the worst year since 2006, the beginning of our anticipation work on the systemic crisis, it's because it's at the crossroads of three paths to global chaos. Absent fundamental treatment of the causes of the crisis, since 2008 the world has only gone back to take a better jump forward.

A bloodless international system
The first path that the crisis can take to cause world chaos is simply a violent and unpredictable shock. The dilapidated state of the international system is now so advanced that its cohesion is at the mercy of any large-scale disaster (4). Just look at the inability of the international community to effectively help Haiti over the past year (5), the United States to rebuild New Orleans for six years, the United Nations to resolve the problems in Darfur, Côte d'Ivoire for a decade, the United States to progress peace in the Middle East, NATO to beat the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Security Council to control the Korean and Iranian issues, the West to stabilize Lebanon, the G20 to end the global crisis be it financial, food, economic, social, monetary, ... to see that over the whole range of climatic and humanitarian disasters, like economic and social crises, the international system is now powerless.

In fact, since the mid-2000s at least, all the major global players, at their head of course the United States and its cortege of Western countries, do no more than give out information, or gesticulate. In reality, all bets are off: The crisis ball rolls and everyone holds their breath so it doesn't fall on their square. But gradually the increasing risks and issues of the crisis have changed the casino's roulette wheel into Russian roulette. For LEAP/E2020, the whole world has begun to play Russian roulette (6), or rather its 2011 version, "American Roulette" with five bullets in the barrel.

GEAB N°51 is available! Systemic global crisis - 2011: The ruthless year, at the crossroads of three roads of global chaos
Soaring commodity prices (food, energy (7),...) should remind us of 2008 (8). It was indeed in the six months preceding Lehman Brothers and Wall Street's collapse that the previous episode of sharp increases in commodity prices was set. And the actual causes are the same as before: a flight from financial and monetary assets in favour of "concrete" investments. Last time the big players fled the mortgage market and everything that depended on it, as well as the U.S. Dollar; today they are fleeing all financial stocks, Treasury bonds (9) and other public debts. Therefore, we have to wait for a time between Spring and Autumn 2011 for the explosion of the quadruple bubble of Treasury bonds, public debt (10°, bank balance sheets (11) and real estate (American, Chinese, British, Spanish,... and commercial (12)), all taking place against a backdrop of a heightened currency war (13).

The inflation induced by US, British and Japanese Quantitative Easing and similar stimulus measures of the Europeans and Chinese will be one of the destabilizing factors in 2011 (14). We will come back to this in more detail in this issue. But what is now clear with respect to what is happening in Tunisia (15), is that this global context, especially the rise in food and energy prices, now leads on to radical social and political shocks (16). The other reality that the Tunisian case reveals is the impotence of the French, Italian or American "godfathers" to prevent the collapse of a "friendly regime" (17).

Impotence of the major global geopolitical players
And this impotence of the major global geopolitical players is the other path that the crisis can use to produce world chaos in 2011. In effect, one can place the major G20 powers in two groups whose only point in common is that they are unable to influence events decisively.

On one side we haves a moribund West with, on the one hand, the United States, for whom 2011 will show that its leadership is no more than fiction (see this issue) and which is trying to freeze the entire international system in its configuration of the early 2000s (18), and on the other hand we have Euroland, "sovereign" in the pipeline, which is currently mainly focused on adapting to its new environment (19) and new status as an emerging geopolitical entity (20), and which, therefore, has neither the energy nor the vision necessary to influence world events (21).

And on the other side are the BRIC countries (with China and Russia in particular) who are, at the moment, proving to be incapable of taking control of all or part of the international system and whose only action is therefore limited to quietly undermine what remains of the foundations of the pre-crisis order (22).

Ultimately, impotence is widespread (23) at the international community level, increasing not only the risk of major shocks, but also the significance of the consequences of these shocks. The world of 2008 was taken by surprise by the violent impact of the crisis, but paradoxically the international system was better equipped to respond being organized around an undisputed leader (24). In 2011, this is no longer the case: not only is there no undisputed leader, but the system is bloodless as we have seen above. And the situation is aggravated further by the fact that the societies of many countries in the world are on the verge of socio-economic break-up.

GEAB N°51 is available! Systemic global crisis - 2011: The ruthless year, at the crossroads of three roads of global chaos

Societies on the edge of socio-economic break-up
This is particularly the case in the United States and Europe where three years of crisis are beginning to weigh very heavily on the socio-economic and therefore political balance. US households, now insolvent in their tens of millions, oscillate between sustained poverty (25) and rage against the system. European citizens, trapped between unemployment and the dismantling of the welfare state (26), are starting to refuse to pay the bills for financial and budget crises and are beginning to look for culprits (banks, the Euro, government political parties…).

But amongst the emerging powers too, the violent transition which constitutes the crisis is leading societies towards situations of break-up: in China, the need to control expanding financial bubbles is hampered by the desire to improve the lot of whole sectors of society such as the need for employment for tens of millions of casual workers; in Russia, the weakness of the social security system fits badly with the enrichment of the elite, just as in Algeria shaken by riots. In Turkey, Brazil and India, everywhere the rapid change these countries are seeing is triggering riots, protests and terrorist attacks. For reasons that are sometimes contradictory, growth for some, penury for others, across the globe our diverse societies tackle 2011 in a context of strong tensions and socio-economic break-up, which have the making of political time bombs.

It's its position at the crossroads of three paths which thus makes 2011 a ruthless year. And ruthless it will be for the States (and local authorities) which have chosen not to draw hard conclusions from the three years of crisis which have gone before and / or who have contented themselves with cosmetic changes not altering their fundamental imbalances at all. It will also be so for businesses (and States (27)) who believed that the improvement in 2010 was a sign of a return to "normal" of the global economy. And finally it will be so for investors who have not understood that yesterday's investments (securities, currencies,...) couldn't be those of tomorrow (in any case for several years). History is usually a "good girl". She often gives a warning shot before sweeping away the past. This time, it gave the warning shot in 2008. We estimate that in 2011, it will do the sweeping. Only players who have undertaken, even painstakingly, even partially, to adapt to the new conditions generated by the crisis will be able to hang on; for the others, chaos is at the end of the road.

----------
Notes:

(1) Or of the world that we have known since 1945 to repeat our 2006 description.

(2) The recent decision by the US Department of Labor to extend the inclusion of the measure of long-term unemployment in the US employment statistics to five years instead of the maximum of two years until now, is a good indicator of the entry into a new stage of the crisis, a step that has seen the disappearance of the "practices" of the world before. As a matter of fact, the US government cites "the unprecedented rise" of long-term unemployment to justify this decision. Source: The Hill, 12/28/2010

(3) These measures (monetary, financial, economic, budgetary, strategic) are now closely linked. That's why they will be carried away in a series of successive shocks.

(4) Source: The Independent, 01/13/2011

(5) It's even worse because it was international aid that brought cholera to the island, causing thousands of deaths.

(6) Moreover Timothy Geithner, US Treasury Secretary, little known for his overactive imagination, has just indicated that "the US government could once again have to do exceptional things", referring to the bank bailout in 2008. Source: MarketWatch, 01/13/2011

(7) Moreover, India and Iran are in the course of establishing a system of exchange "gold for oil" to try and avoid supply disruptions. Source: Times of India, 01/08/2011

(8) In January 2011 the FAO food price index (at 215) has just exceeded its previous record set in May 2008 (at 214).

(9) Wall Street banks are currently unloading their US Treasury bonds as fast as possible (unseen since 2004). Their official explanation is "the remarkable improvement in the US economy which no longer requires us to seek refuge in Treasury Bonds". Of course, you are free to believe it, like Bloomberg 's journalist on 01/10/2011.

(10) Thus Euroland is already taking big steps forward along the path described in the GEAB N°50 with a discount in the case of refinancing the debts of a member state, whilst Japanese and US debt are now about to enter the storm. Sources: Bloomberg, 01/07/2011; Telegraph, 01/05/2011

(11) We believe that, in general, global banks' balance sheets contain at least 50% ghost assets which in the coming year will require to be discounted by between 20% to 40% due to the return of the global recession combined with austerity, the rise in defaults on household, business, community and state loans, currency wars and a pickup in the fall of real estate prices. The American, European, Chinese, Japanese and others "stress-tests" can still continue to try and reassure markets with "Care Bears" scenarios except that this year it's "Alien against Predator " which is on the banks' agenda. Source: Forbes, 01/12/2011

(12) Each of these real estate markets will fall sharply again in 2011 in the case of those which have already started falling in recent years, or in the case of China, which will begin its sharp deflation amid economic slowdown and monetary tightening.

(13) The Japanese economy is, moreover, one of the first victims of this currency war, with 76% of the CEOs of 110 major Japanese companies surveyed by Kyodo News now reported being pessimistic about Japanese growth in 2011 following the rise in the yen. Source: JapanTimes, 01/04/2011

(14) Here are several instructive examples put together by the excellent John Rubino. Source: DollarCollapse, 01/08/2011

(15) By way of reminder, in the GEAB N°48 we had classified Tunisia in the category of countries "with significant risks" in 2011.

(16) No doubt, moreover, that the Tunisian example is generating a round of reassessment amongst the rating agencies and the "experts in geopolitics", who, as usual, didn't see anything coming. The Tunisian case also illustrates the fact that it's now the satellite countries of the West in general and the US in particular, who are on the way to shocks in 2011 and in the years to come. And it confirms what we regularly repeat: a crisis accelerates all the historical processes. The Ben Ali regime, twenty-three years old, collapsed in a few weeks. When political obsolescence is involved everything changes quickly. Now it's all the pro-Western Arab regimes which are obsolete in the light of events in Tunisia.

(17) No doubt this « Western godfather » paralysis will be carefully analyzed in Rabat, Cairo, Jeddah and Amman, for example.

(18) A configuration that was all the more favorable because it was without a counterweight to their influence.

(19) We will return in more detail in this GEAB issue, but seen from China we are not mistaken. Source: Xinhua, 01/02/2011

(20) Little by little Europeans are discovering that they are dependent on centres of power other than Washington. Beijing, Moscow, Brazilia, New Dehli,… Source: La Tribune, 01/05/2011; Libération, 12/24/2010; El Pais, 01/05/2011

(21) All Japan's energy is focused on its desperate attempt to resist the attraction of China. As for other Western countries, they are not able to significantly influence global trends.

(22) The US Dollar's place in the global system is a part of these last foundations that the BRIC countries are actively eroding day after day.

(23) As regards deficit, the US case is textbook. Beyond the speeches, everything continues as before the crisis with a deficit swelling exponentially. However, even the IMF is now ringing the alarm. Source: Reuters, 01/08/2011

(24) Moreover, even the Wall Street Journal on 01/12/2011, echoing the Davos Forum, is concerned over the lack of international coordination, which is in itself a major risk to the global economy.

(25) Millions of Americans are discovering food banks for the first time in their lives, whilst in California, as in many other states, the education system is disintegrating fast. In Illinois, studies on the state deficit are now comparing it to the Titanic. 2010 broke the record for real estate foreclosures. Sources: Alternet, 12/27/2010; CNN, 01/08/2011; IGPA-Illinois, 01/2011; LADailyNews, 01/13/2011

(26) Ireland, which is facing, purely and simply, a reconstruction of its economy, is a good example of situations to come. But even Germany, with remarkable current economic results however can't escape this development as shown by the funding crisis for cultural activities. Whilst in the United Kingdom, millions of retirees are seeing their incomes cut for the third year running. Sources : Irish Times, 12/31/2010; Deutsche Welle, 01/03/2011; Telegraph, 01/13/2011

(27) In this regard, US leaders confirm that they are rushing straight into the wall of public debt, failing to anticipate the problems. Indeed, the recent statement by Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, that the Fed will not help the States (30% fall in 2009 tax revenues according to the Washington Post on 01/05/2011) and the cities collapsing under their debts, just as Congress decides to stop issuing "Build America Bonds" which enabled States to avoid bankruptcy these last few years, shows a Washington blindness only equal to that which Washington demonstrated in 2007/2008 in the face of the mounting consequences of the "subprime" crisis. Sources: Bloomberg, 01/07/2011; WashingtonBlog, 01/13/2011

Investing in the Chinese Yuan: World's Reserve Currency by 2030?

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 01:23 AM PST

Brian Foglia submits:

Reuters reports that MIT economist Simon Johnson has predicted the Chinese yuan will replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency within the next twenty years. He added that the US will see its dominance ebb during this period. China’s rise as a global power is virtually undisputed, and no one seriously doubts that China will one day eclipse the US as the world’s most important economy. While this news may sadden us as citizens, it should motivate us as investors.

The bullish case for the yuan is very strong. For years, the Chinese government has kept its currency pegged to the US dollar in order to make Chinese goods less expensive for American consumers. In order to maintain the artificial exchange rate and prevent the yuan from appreciating, the Chinese central bank continuously purchases dollars.


Complete Story »

Will Gold Be Currency Or Will Cash Be Illegal?

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 01:18 AM PST

One of my concerns about precious metals has been the possibility of confiscation one way or another. This article doesn't help.

Will Gold Be Currency Or Will Cash Be Illegal?
By: Daniel Amerman | Thu, Jan 13, 2011

Will future gold profits be enjoyed on a tax-free basis because gold has become the new currency and cash isn't taxed when it is spent? Or will governments around the world use the pretext of financial emergency to continue to take ever greater control of their citizens' private lives and make cash itself illegal, requiring all financial transactions to be in electronic form with a "cc" to the government?

Last year I wrote an article titled Hidden Gold Taxes: The Secret Weapon Of Bankrupt Governments about the "elephant in the living room" that most precious metals investors are unaware of. In simple, step by step detail, I showed how the government uses taxes on false inflation "profits" to not only effectively confiscate profits from gold investors, but effectively create an asset tax. So that the higher the rate of inflation, and the higher that precious metals prices soar - the more of the precious metal investor's starting net worth that is confiscated by the government in after-inflation terms.

Among the many responses, nobody has even attempted to disprove the simple but irrefutable math of gold investor wealth confiscation through inflation taxes, but many people dispute the idea that gold profits will be taxable at all. Some are convinced that the future is certain - that after the scoundrels are thrown out, right-thinking people will insist on the use of gold as currency, which means gold investors will reliably be relieved of tax obligations. Others are convinced governmental breakdown and anarchy will make tax considerations irrelevant. As I've seen discussed on internet forums, still other gold investors apparently find my concern about taxes to be the very height of naiveté if not downright laughable, and believe that I'm missing the point of discretely spendable gold and silver coins, which is specifically to avoid paying taxes.

In this article about possible future scenarios, we will briefly look at the history of government actions during global financial crisis, as well as what governments are doing now, and we'll explore whether it is more likely that the future will be tax-free for gold investors, or whether the future may be one of crushing government control on a global scale that makes previous black market strategies obsolete. If we combine history's repeating itself - but with more advanced technology this time around - many precious metals investors may just be making one of the biggest mistakes of their lives if they are not anticipating paying taxes in full at likely higher future tax rates.

The 1930s

In evaluating what may happen in the future, sometimes it helps to look first to the past. Let's take a look at the last time the global marketplace collapsed, leading to a major depression among all of the industrialized nations. Did the forces of government get overthrown by right-thinking individuals? Did gold become currency in response to the terrible economic conditions?

Let's consider Germany, which was enduring a terrible depression along with the rest of the world. The rights of individuals were not elevated - rather Adolph Hitler rose to power in an environment of pure fascism. Political change was indeed the result of depression and a failed global monetary system, but the change was not in the direction most would desire.

Let's also consider the situation of Japan. The Japanese economy was in depression, and it did have a gold-backed currency. In the real world, with actual history, the rights of the individual did not increase in crisis, nor did gold remain currency. Instead, the Japanese government led the way in going off the gold standard for domestic purposes, and they embraced militarism with the invasion of China to follow shortly afterwards. Hardly a supporting point for believing that global depression leads to a decrease in the power of the state and an increase in individual rights.

In the United States, the response to global depression was the election of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Which was soon followed by the US going off the gold standard domestically, and even going so far as to confiscate gold held for investment purposes at a price that was 41% below its then current value.

There was not a New Age of individual liberties in response to the last depression, but rather an extraordinary increase in federal government power. This change would prove enduring as a federal government which had previously played a lesser role in what was supposed to be a United States of America (not a Federal Government of America) seized broad powers that put it in an unprecedented position of controlling much of the day-to-day life of the nation's citizens. It was in this environment that Social Security was created, as well as the Federal National Mortgage Association, which was the first step along the path to our current federalized mortgage system.

Some people see these changes as having set the progressive foundation for a better and more just nation. Others see the "New Deal" as having set in motion a process that ultimately destroyed the constitutional experiment and individual liberties that had created a great nation. However, for the purposes of this article, let me suggest that whether one views FDR as saint or demon doesn't really matter. The point is that it is quite clear that in the United States, the historical response to political crisis and economic depression was to radically increase the power of the federal government over the day-to-day lives of its citizens.

The Present In The United States

Let's fast forward to the current day and age, where this trend towards an increasingly powerful federal government at the expense of its own citizens has now reached the point where in the name of "security", federal government agents stationed at airports around the country have the legal permission to randomly sexually grope grandmothers and other citizens at will. This does not look promising as a trend towards individual liberties.

Let's now consider what has been happening with the reporting of financial transactions to the government. For some time now, in the name of the "Wars" against drugs and terrorism, banks have been required to report to the federal government any transactions involving more than $10,000 in cash, or even any pattern of transactions that may make it look like that is the eventual goal.

There are broad changes to US reporting requirements that were snuck into the health-care reform legislation, that will be making life more difficult for small businesses and entrepreneurs in particular. Form 1099-Misc will become more ubiquitous, giving the government far more information about the flow of money between individuals, even as it imposes new compliance burdens for anyone trying to help the economy recover. The new 1099-K will have to be filed by all payment processors (such as credit cards companies) for any company or individual who receives more than $20,000 annually in at least 200 individual electronic payments. This is the future of electronic cash in the United States, and this is what is already here.

The broadening US reporting requirements reach outside the US as well. Starting in 2013 under HIRE, all US-sourced investment payments leading to financial institutions outside the United States will have to be reported to the US federal government, with pre-emptive 30% withholding taxes collected when the foreign entity doesn't prostate itself before US tax authorities and effectively agree to report to the IRS on the foreign activities of US citizens. In other words, foreign banks, trusts, hedge funds and other entities investing any money in the US face punitive taxation on getting their money back out unless they formally put themselves under US law (effectively) and provide the IRS with detailed information on US citizens.

All of this is in an environment where of course pretty much everything electronic is already seen by the government through its "Carnivore" system at Internet portals, which has the ability to record virtually all information that passes electronically through the Internet in the United States. The government can already track all of our personal financial transactions today if it really wants to - so long as they are electronic. There is, however, a gaping hole in the government's knowledge when it comes to cash transactions. A hole that can be filled.

The Logical Next Step

When we look at history as well as the new laws still going into effect, does it seem preordained that gold will become cash as the government willingly hands back to the people their liberty and control of their individual economic and financial lives? Or is it more plausible that cash itself could become illegal, as a part of ever increasing government control over both the economy and the lives of individual citizens?

This concept of cash becoming illegal might have seemed like some rather radical stuff twenty or thirty years ago, even falling in the realm of science fiction. However, realistically, it describes most of the US economy at this time, as well as other wealthy nations. For the vast majority of transactions that occur throughout the system, it is becoming increasingly rare for them to actually occur with physical cash. Credit cards, debit cards, and electronic fund transfers have become ubiquitous. Even checks don't work like they used to as they are instead instantly converted to electronic drawing rights. So most of the money in most of our lives - and most of the individual transactions for most of the population - is already electronic. It already passes through computers. It already can be tracked electronically by the government.

So what would be more logical than for the government to require that all transactions be electronic, so it can insure 100% reporting compliance? For this illustration, we will say that everything is done with a debit card or credit card, with (zero balance) debit cards available to everyone regardless of credit history. Just wave your card in front of the terminal, this recent technology is already everywhere. For individuals needing to pay each other, just send it on-line (waving smart phones at each other may be the new wallets), or even the poor can go to the much more ubiquitous ATMs that will now allow for direct electronic transfer between accounts. Just wave both parties' cards, and enter the amount. With a report of each and every transfer sent to the government, with both social security numbers for tracking. Every dime taken in, every dime taken out, all available in the government data base by identification number for each person.

Again this is not science fiction, but only a slight extrapolation from where we are in 2011. The poor already receive some of their government redistributions, such as food stamps, in the form of debit cards where spending can only occur in government approved categories. Like many other people, I routinely go a week or more at a time without spending physical cash. As for millions of people carrying their cell phones and smart phones, transmitting their identity and physical location at all times, while being recorded by ever present security cameras - that is already our world, particularly in places like London.

For this illustration / exploration of possible futures, we will assume that there will be a deadline date when all cash must be deposited and converted to electronic form, and after that date - any payment with cash that can't be electronically tracked will be a felony. This would, of course, include any payment made with gold or silver as well, meaning spending a silver coin in a manner that didn't generate an electronic tracking report would be an automatic felony.

Oh, this final transition to 100% electronic (and 100% monitored) money will surely be presented as being in the interest of the nation and of all right-thinking people - make no mistake about it. It will be presented as an essential element in the War against Drugs. The drug dealers will have no way to take money in, or to spend money, when using cash itself becomes a felony offense. Indeed, what will be the point of armed robbery when all you can do is transfer the money into your account with the government watching? Why burglarize for resale, when every dime you take in is reported? This will finally mean winning the War against Drugs, protecting our youth and Winning The War against Crime in general.

Or so it will be presented.

It will be presented as a core element in the War against Tax Evasion By The Rich, as future austerity programs become nasty and the public is looking for scapegoats. To be clear, the government is unlikely to go after the truly powerful and extraordinarily politically connected people who are responsible for this mess, let's not be naive here. (This is after all an article about plausible possible futures, not pure fantasy.) However, with future austerity measures, everything from Social Security to Head Start, to programs that aid the homeless and the mentally ill, to public support for libraries and the arts, will be under assault and either slashed or discontinued altogether.

Millions of people are going to see their view of the world under assault, they will be looking for people to blame - and culprits will be offered up to them. It will be the fault of those greedy entrepreneurs abusing the system by hiding income in a way that a respectable-salaried corporate or government employee just can't do. Or how about those rich old people all over the country trying to dodge taxes they could so easily pay, by bartering their gold coins? Fairness for all will require 100% electronic money, as all politically correct-minded people will agree.

Or so it will be presented.

It will also be an essential component of the War against Terrorism. Terrorists need guns, bullets and chemicals, as well as the ability to pay for food and housing. They need connections once they are "in country", to tap into the financial resources they will need to pay for their terror. Going to 100% electronic money means shining a spotlight into all the dark corners, and you cannot be a Patriot and oppose this most reasonable evolutionary step in the War for the Homeland.

Or so it will be presented.

It will be an extraordinary loss of individual privacy and liberty in the US and the many other nations that either lead or follow. It will not be any one of these factors by itself, but the combined result of the War on Drugs, the War on Crime, the War On Tax Evasion and the War on Terror. And because of the enormous technological advances of recent decades, something that would have been paranoid science-fiction in the 1970s, can now be easily accomplished. Our future could make George Orwell's "1984" look like a naïve utopian fantasy in comparison to what modern technology permits a state when it comes to controlling its own citizenry.

If you are currently entrenched in power, there is a nice little "fringe benefit", in that every step which you take to ensure that no foreign terrorists can fight against you, is equally effective at keeping your own citizens from attempting to reclaim the liberty they will have lost at that point. For some nations, this will be a "fringe benefit" that may be far from accidental.

What do you personally think is more likely given the deeply flawed world in which we live? Do you think the federal government will hand power back to its own people (whether it's the United States or other nations around the world)? Or do you think it is more likely that the unscrupulous people in power whose actions created this situation in the first place will use this as the pretext to seize still more power, and make it significantly more difficult for dissenting forces to challenge them?

This is truly a global question as we are seeing right now in Europe. The economic failures in Greece and Ireland may cascade quickly to Portugal, Spain and beyond. Some people believe that these failures will reach the point where they can no longer be contained and this will lead to the collapse of the European Union. They assume that because the politicians betrayed the economic interests of their own citizens, these politicians will be removed from power and maybe a different kind of experiment will be attempted so that the interests of the citizens are served.

Unfortunately, however, what we are seeing to date is just the reverse. Political leaders who are dedicated to a centralized European government that is far more powerful than the current European Union are using the crisis to try to increase the political power of the European Union government. The rationale is that the euro is fatally flawed because the voters in individual nations may elect leaders who act irresponsibly and take actions that risk the wealth and economy of all of Europe. Therefore it is in the interests of the citizens of the European Union for increased central power to be held by the European Union, so that individual nations can be brought into line and all Europeans can be protected from the irresponsible actions of their individual (elected) national governments.

Or so it will be (and is) presented.

Unnecessarily Concentrating Risk

If you think the future is solely about money and gold, let me suggest that it is likely that you're going to turn out to be badly mistaken. Oh, it's not that those issues aren't vital, particularly in all of our individual day-to-day lives, but the stakes for what is happening far exceed money by itself or investments by themselves. There is an extraordinarily complex battle that has already begun, and it is becoming increasingly official with "QE2" and the results of the Seoul Summit, as well as the many other factors that are changing all around us. Indeed, just this week Guido Mantega, the finance minister of Brazil, declared that a global currency war already exists, with US and China being the worst offenders, that Brazil was preparing countermoves, and that global trade war could be the result. The results of this war could be devastating for investors and retirees around the world, as covered in my article Bullets In The Back: How Boomers & Retirees Will Become Stimulus, Bailout & Currency War Casualties.
http://danielamerman.com/articles/Bullets.htm

We are seeing the beginning stages of a battle among power factions inside of a number of major nations (rioting on the streets of Athens, London, Paris and Rome are cases in point), and the outcome is both unknown, and at this point, unknowable. We're looking at a global political battle between nations, global economic warfare between nations, the redistribution of power and wealth within nations, and possibly even military conflicts as well.

Let me suggest that for someone to take everything that they have built over the course of their life and to concentrate all of their wealth on just one strategy, based on their absolute conviction that they know the future (the solid stability of gold as currency) - then that person is unnecessarily concentrating their risk. If a person puts everything he or she has into one popular strategy, and is correct about the value of the dollar collapsing, and is also correct about gold soaring, but it turns out that gold itself does not become currency (which is distinctly different from a gold-backed currency) and tax rates grow ever higher, then that person risks the loss of most of what they have, as shown in Hidden Gold Taxes: The Secret Weapon Of Bankrupt Governments.
http://danielamerman.com/articles/GoldTaxes1.htm

Unprecedented Diversification

When looking at this world of extraordinary complexity and unfairness, I find the best solution may be to return to a world of fairness and simplicity. I think back to the days when I was a Boy Scout and my motto was "Be Prepared".

When the future is uncertain, then the best strategy that you can possibly have on an individual level is to be prepared for multiple possible futures. To craft a strategy where you look at likely possibilities, and regardless of which possibility occurs, even if you don't necessarily gain great wealth, at the very least you are not completely wiped out by putting all of your eggs in one basket, into one strategy.

I like gold a lot as an investment during a time when the US government is openly monetizing, as in openly turning to direct monetary creation to fund extraordinary budget deficits. I won't pretend to know for sure what the future holds, whether gold will be currency or whether cash will be illegal. This article is intended to illustrate, educate and provoke. That said, an important point is that I don't think anybody else knows for sure either.
Click Here To Learn About A Free Mini Course That Will Teach You How To Turn Inflation Into Wealth.

In my opinion, the solution is to enter into a set of strategies with multiple components, with those components shifting at different points in time, with the different stages in crisis (as explained in my Gold Out-Of-The-Box DVDs). We should be comfortable that we have found individual solutions that give us a fighting chance, whether the future is one that we hope to see, or is a future that terrifies us. Ideally, with multi-component strategies, even if the government sees and taxes you on every single penny of your gold profits, you'll still come out ahead, potentially even strongly ahead of where you are right now.

And if gold itself does become currency on a tax-free basis, then you do much, much better with these same strategies - because when none of your profits are consumed by covering taxes, everything can go into multiplying wealth. It comes down to a goal of deliberately attempting to create a win-win situation. A situation where your wealth is protected, regardless of whether you're paying taxes on your gold investments, or you aren't. If the future is in doubt in any way, and the stakes are everything you and your family have - why risk it all if you don't have to?.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/196...ash-be-illegal

Gold Thoughts

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 11:06 PM PST

Here is an opinion piece from the Daily Reckoning: Why Gold Is Still a Good Investment by Bill Bonner Nothing much in yesterday's market news…so we turn to a remarkable article that appeared in MONEY magazine, proving that MONEY doesn't know anything about money. (MONEY Magazine) – Can you tell when a boom has turned into [...]

Ag Prices Adjusting

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 10:05 PM PST

"Corn, Soybeans Drop On Concern Prices Climbed Too Quickly in December."

We disagree with this headline statement. Grains were in hard rallies on world-wide bad weather and new reports of lower reserves. Traders must keep in mind a rising US Dollar makes American grain more expensive and curtails export sales. This is why we see selling on this chart. Look for the cycle lows to be posted in March, 2011, when we usually enter our November soybean spreads.

'Corn and soybeans futures declined in Chicago amid concern prices rose too fast last month, weighing on demand from livestock breeders and investors. Wheat also fell. Soybean futures jumped 13% last month, taking gains in the second half of the year to 55%, the best performance for that six-month period since at least 1959, on record Chinese demand for supplies from the U.S. and concerns that dry weather in South America may tighten global supply. "The market is becoming wary that these high prices will begin to have a more definite impact on consumption patterns," Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a report today."

"Farmers in Brazil, the largest soybean grower and exporter after the U.S., boosted the use of fertilizers, engineered seeds and other inputs to counter the negative impact of the La Nina weather phenomenon, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report on its website yesterday."

"Corn futures surged +68% in the second half of 2010, the best performance for that period since at least 1959. Farmers in the U.S. may shift more acres to corn from soybeans than estimated in July because of rising prices, Farm Futures said in an e-mailed report yesterday, citing a survey of more than 1,000 growers." Luzi Ann Javier Bloomberg.net 1-5-11


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Silver still one of the best performing assets this decade

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 09:07 PM PST

Technical analysis suggests gold may have further to fall

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 09:04 PM PST

Observations On The Government Spending Bubble, The Dollar and Government Lies

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 01:49 PM PST

Here's a great chart I borrowed from:  HERE

The amount of debt represents the difference between Government revenues and Govt spending.  Does this chart show any signs of a Government that has the ability to reduce its spending deficit?  Now, the Fed balance sheet is growing multiple billions by the day, so the real spending deficit is even bigger than is represented by the above graphic.

I'm all for the tax cuts just passed, but it has to be offset by cuts in spending.  Not only will we NOT get cuts in spending, the budget grows by the day more quickly than pinocchio's nose.

Here is what the market thinks about the U.S. Government's ability to manage its finances:

(click on chart to enlarge)
For sure, we get some technical dead cat bounces along the way, and a reader always busts my stones when we get one (but is radio silent when the dollar resumes its descent lol), but Geither – in so many words with his China rhetoric yesterday – essentially told the world that the U.S. is going to print the dollar to much lower levels.  Bernanke is putting those words into action.  It's a serious Comedy of Errors.  Here's a great analysis of the U.S. dollar situation I sourced from King World News blog.  I agree with this view:  LINK
And what is even more humorous to me is that everyone in this country is discussing the dire multi-sovereign fiscal crisis going on in Europe.  The fact is that California alone is in worse shape than several countries over in Europe combined.  Then layer on top of that Illionois, NY, NJ, etc.  I don't have time to add up the numbers, but if you include the full present value of Federal entitlement liabilities, State pension unfunded-liabilities, State/municipal debt obligations and private debt in this country, we would all wonder why news about the situation in Europe is even in the news.  Besides, China has already said it will prevent a collapse in Europe.  I have not heard China make that proclamation about this country, nor will we after Geithner took his water pistol to a battle field of political rhetoric.  It was more pathetic than Poland's calvary trying to defend against Germany's tank and air attack.
Two of the biggest Government lies that grow and perpetuate on a monthly basis are the monthly employment and inflation reports.  For a great explanation of the golden truth about the real numbers, this interview with John Williams is a must-read:  Govt Lies
Those of us who have been investing in precious metals for at least the past decade have known all along that the Govt economic reports are bogus.  The analysis of this is now starting to seep into the mainstream media, to an extent.  Certainly not the most common sources of news like the night time local t.v. news broadcast or daily newspapers.  But it's getting a lot more exposure and acknowledgement in blogosphere.
One more must-read.  This guy has become my favorite economic analyst and his writing style is superb:  Alisdair Macleod
One has to wonder how long it will be before the Obama people decide to curtail what is allowed to be posted on the internet….it gets more Orwellian by the day.  Protect yourself with gold and silver.

Silver Going Mainstream in 2011

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 11:48 AM PST

Never mind the correction in the price of silver, says Silver Strategies Editor Sean Rakhimov; better things are ahead. "It may be volatile; it may be steep; but it should be short-lived," he says, adding that he expects silver to rise well above its 2010 high at some point in 2011. Some of that price support could come from governments entering the silver market. Find out all the reasons for this in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report.

There's something about RF power transistors ...

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 10:15 AM PST

I can't quite figure it out but there's something about these transistors I like ....

Amid struggle with budget cuts, lawmakers oppose plan to drop Marine vehicle

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 06:04 AM PST

The backroom congressional battle over Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates's plan to eliminate the Marine Corps' multibillion-dollar amphibious Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle will be fought out at the same time as the Corps wrestles with how to shrink its forces.

Rep. W. Todd Akin (R-Mo.), new chairman of the House Armed Services subcommittee on seapower and expeditionary forces, said Thursday that he and others "are going to be opposing the secretary and his decision." He added, "The need for the core capability of the Marines'' - to attack on land from the sea - "has not gone away . . . but how many we buy may be negotiated."...

Read

GEAB N°51 est disponible! Crise systémique globale - 2011 : L'année impitoyable, à la croisée des trois chemins du chaos mondial

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 04:59 AM PST

- Communiqué public GEAB N°51 (15 janvier 2011) -
GEAB N°51 est disponible! Crise systémique globale - 2011 : L'année impitoyable, à la croisée des trois chemins du chaos mondial
Ce numéro 51 du GEAB marque le cinquième anniversaire de la publication du Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin. Or, en Janvier 2006, à l'occasion du GEAB N°1, l'équipe de LEAP/E2020 indiquait à l'époque qu'une période de quatre à sept ans s'ouvrait qui serait caractérisée par la « Chute du Mur Dollar », phénomène analogue à celui de la chute du Mur de Berlin qui entraîna dans les années suivantes l'effondrement du bloc communiste, puis celui de l'URSS. Aujourd'hui, dans ce GEAB N°51 qui présente nos trente-deux anticipations pour l'année 2011, nous estimons que l'année à venir sera une année charnière dans ce processus s'étalant donc entre 2010 et 2013. Elle sera en tout état de cause une année impitoyable car elle va en effet marquer l'entrée dans la phase terminale du monde d'avant la crise (1).

Depuis Septembre 2008, moment où l'évidence de la nature globale et systémique de la crise s'est imposée à tous, les Etats-Unis, et derrière eux les pays occidentaux, se sont contentés de mesures palliatives qui n'ont fait que masquer les effets de sape de la crise sur les fondements du système international contemporain. 2011 va, selon notre équipe, marquer le moment crucial où d'une part ces mesures palliatives voient leur effet anesthésiant s'évanouir tandis que, au contraire, vont brutalement surgir au premier plan les conséquences de la dislocation systémique de ces dernières années (2).

En résumé, 2011 va être marquée par une série de chocs violents qui vont faire exploser les fausses protections mises en place depuis 2008 (3) et qui vont emporter un à un les « piliers » sur lesquels reposent depuis des décennies le « Mur Dollar ». Seuls les pays, collectivités, organisations et individus qui ont réellement entrepris depuis trois ans de tirer les leçons de la crise en cours pour s'éloigner au plus vite des modèles, valeurs et comportements d'avant la crise, traverseront cette année indemnes ; les autres vont être emportés dans le cortège de difficultés monétaires, financières, économiques, sociales et politiques que réserve 2011.

Ainsi, comme nous considérons que 2011 sera globalement l'année la plus chaotique depuis 2006, date du début de nos travaux sur la crise, notre équipe s'est concentrée dans le GEAB N°51 sur les 32 anticipations de l'année 2011, qui comportent également nombre de recommandations pour faire face aux chocs à venir. C'est ainsi une sorte de carte prévisionnelle des chocs financiers, monétaires, politiques, économiques et sociaux des douze prochains mois qu'offre ce numéro du GEAB.

Si notre équipe estime que 2011 sera l'année la plus terrible depuis 2006, date du début de notre travail d'anticipation de la crise systémique, c'est parce qu'elle est à la croisée des trois chemins du chaos mondial. Faute de traitement de fond des causes de la crise, depuis 2008 le monde n'a fait que reculer pour mieux sauter.

Un système international exsangue
Le premier chemin que la crise peut prendre pour générer un chaos mondial, c'est tout simplement un choc violent et imprévisible. L'état de délabrement du système international est désormais tellement avancé que sa cohésion est à la merci de toute catastrophe d'envergure (4). Il suffit de voir l'incapacité de la communauté internationale à efficacement aider Haïti depuis un an (5), des Etats-Unis à reconstruire la Nouvelle Orléans depuis six ans, de l'ONU à régler les problèmes du Darfour, de la Côte d'Ivoire depuis une décennie, des Etats-Unis à faire avancer la paix au Proche-Orient, de l'OTAN à battre les Talibans en Afghanistan, du Conseil de Sécurité à maîtriser les questions coréenne et iranienne, de l'Occident à stabiliser le Liban, du G20 à mettre fin à la crise mondiale qu'elle soit financière, alimentaire, économique, sociale, monétaire, … pour constater que sur l'ensemble de la palette des catastrophes climatiques et humanitaires, comme des crises économiques et sociales, le système international est désormais impuissant.

En fait, depuis le milieu des années 2000 au moins, l'ensemble des grands acteurs mondiaux, au premier rang desquels se trouvent bien entendu les Etats-Unis et son cortège de pays occidentaux, ne fait plus que de la communication, de la gesticulation. Dans la réalité, rien ne va plus : la bille des crises tourne et chacun retient son souffle pour qu'elle ne tombe pas sur sa case. Mais progressivement la multiplication des risques et des thèmes de crise ont transformé la roulette de casino en roulette russe. Pour LEAP/E2020, le monde entier commence à jouer à la roulette russe (6), ou plutôt à sa version 2011 « la roulette américaine », avec cinq balles dans le barillet.

GEAB N°51 est disponible! Crise systémique globale - 2011 : L'année impitoyable, à la croisée des trois chemins du chaos mondial
L'envolée des prix des matières premières (alimentaires, énergétiques (7),...) doit nous rappeler 2008 (8). C'est en effet dans le semestre précédant l'effondrement de Lehman Brothers et de Wall Street que s'est situé le précédent épisode de fortes hausses des prix des matières premières. Et les causes actuelles sont de la même nature que celles d'hier : une fuite hors des actifs financiers et monétaires en faveur de placements « concrets ». Hier les gros opérateurs fuyaient les crédits hypothécaires et tout ce qui en dépendaient ainsi que le Dollar US ; aujourd'hui ils fuient l'ensemble des valeurs financières et les bons du Trésor (ç) et autres dettes publiques. Il faut donc s'attendre entre le Printemps 2011 et l'Automne 2011 à l'explosion de la quadruple bulle des bons du Trésor, des dettes publiques (10), des bilans bancaires (11) et de l'immobilier (américain, chinois, britannique, espagnol, … et commercial (12)) ; l'ensemble se déroulant sur fond de guerre monétaire exacerbée (13).

L'inflation induite par les Quantitative Easing américain, britannique et japonais et les mesures de stimulation des mêmes, des Européens et des Chinois va être l'un des facteurs déstabilisant de 2011 (14). Nous y revenons plus en détail dans ce GEAB N°51. Mais ce qui est désormais évident au regard de ce qui se passe en Tunisie (15), c'est que ce contexte mondial, notamment la hausse des prix des denrées et de l'énergie, débouche dorénavant sur des chocs sociaux et politiques radicaux (16). L'autre réalité que dévoile le cas tunisien, c'est l'impuissance des « parrains » français, italien ou américain pour empêcher l'effondrement d'un « régime-ami » (17).

Impuissance des principaux acteurs géopolitiques mondiaux
Et cette impuissance des principaux acteurs géopolitiques mondiaux est l'autre chemin que la crise peut utiliser pour générer un chaos mondial en 2011. En effet, on peut classer les principales puissances du G20 en deux groupes dont le point seul point commun est qu'ils ne parviennent pas à influencer les évènements de manière décisive.

D'un côté on a l'Occident moribond avec, d'une part, les Etats-Unis, dont l'année 2011 va démontrer que le leadership n'est plus qu'une fiction (voir dans ce GEAB N°51) et qui tentent de figer tout le système international dans sa configuration du début des années 2000 (18) ; et puis on a l'Euroland, « souverain » en gestation qui est actuellement essentiellement concentré sur son adaptation à son nouvel environnement (19) et son nouveau statut d'entité géopolitique émergente (20), et qui n'a donc ni l'énergie, ni la vision nécessaire pour peser sur les évènements mondiaux (21).

Et de l'autre côté, on trouve les BRIC (avec en particulier la Chine et la Russie) qui s'avèrent incapables pour l'instant de prendre le contrôle de tout ou partie du système international et dont la seule action se limite donc à saper discrètement ce qui reste des fondements de l'ordre d'avant la crise (22).

En fin de compte, c'est donc l'impuissance qui se généralise (23) au niveau de la communauté internationale, renforçant non seulement le risque de chocs majeurs, mais également l'importance des conséquences de ces chocs. Le monde de 2008 a été pris par surprise par le choc violent de la crise, mais le système international était paradoxalement mieux équipé pour réagir car organisé autour d'un leader incontesté (24). En 2011, ça n'est plus le cas : non seulement il n'y a plus de leader incontesté, mais le système est exsangue comme on l'a vu précédemment. Et la situation est encore aggravée par le fait que les sociétés d'un grand nombre de pays de la planète sont au bord de la rupture socio-économique.

GEAB N°51 est disponible! Crise systémique globale - 2011 : L'année impitoyable, à la croisée des trois chemins du chaos mondial

Des sociétés au bord de la rupture socio-économique
C'est en particulier le cas aux Etats-Unis et en Europe où trois ans de crise commencent à peser très lourd dans la balance socio-économique, et donc politique. Les ménages américains désormais insolvables par dizaines de millions oscillent entre pauvreté subie (25) et rage anti-système. Les citoyens européens, coincés entre chômage et démantèlement de l'Etat-providence (26), commencent à refuser de payer les additions des crises financières et budgétaires et entreprennent de chercher des coupables (banques, Euro, partis politiques de gouvernement, …).

Mais parmi les puissances émergentes aussi, la transition violente que constitue la crise conduit les sociétés vers des situations de rupture : en Chine, la nécessité de maîtriser les bulles financières en développement se heurte au désir d'enrichissement de secteurs entiers de la société comme au besoin d'emploi de dizaines de millions de travailleurs précaires ; en Russie, la faiblesse du filet social s'accommode mal de l'enrichissement des élites, tout comme en Algérie agitée par des émeutes. En Turquie, au Brésil, en Inde, partout la transition rapide que connaissent ces pays déclenche émeutes, protestations, attentats. Pour des raisons parfois antinomiques, développement pour les unes, appauvrissement pour les autres, un peu partout sur la planète nos différentes sociétés abordent 2011 dans un contexte de fortes tensions, de ruptures socio-économiques qui en font donc des poudrières politiques.

C'est sa position à la croisée de ces trois chemins qui fait ainsi de 2011 une année impitoyable. Et impitoyable elle le sera pour les Etats (et les collectivités locales) qui ont choisi de ne pas tirer les difficiles leçons des trois années de crise qui ont précédé et/ou qui se sont contentés de changements cosmétiques ne modifiant en rien leurs déséquilibres fondamentaux. Elle le sera aussi pour les entreprises (et pour les Etats (27)) qui ont cru que l'embellie de 2010 était le signe d'un retour « à la normale » de l'économie mondiale. Et enfin elle le sera pour les investisseurs qui n'ont pas compris que les valeurs d'hier (titres, monnaies, ….) ne pouvaient pas être celles de demain (en tout cas pour plusieurs années). L'Histoire est généralement « bonne fille ». Elle donne souvent un coup de semonce avant de balayer le passé. Cette fois-ci, elle a donné le coup de semonce en 2008. Nous estimons qu'en 2011, elle donnera le coup de balai. Seuls les acteurs qui ont entrepris, même laborieusement, même partiellement, de s'adapter aux nouvelles conditions générées par la crise pourront tenir ; pour les autres le chaos est au bout du chemin.

----------
Notes:

(1) Ou du monde tel qu'on le connaît depuis 1945 pour reprendre notre description de 2006.

(2) La récente décision du ministère du Travail américain d'étendre à cinq ans la mesure du chômage de longue durée dans les statistiques de l'emploi US, au lieu du maximum de deux ans jusqu'à maintenant, est un bon indicateur de l'entrée dans une étape nouvelle de la crise, une étape qui voit disparaître les « habitudes » du monde d'avant. D'ailleurs, le gouvernement américain cite « la montée sans précédent » du chômage de longue durée pour justifier cette décision. Source : The Hill, 28/12/2010

(3) Ces mesures (monétaires, financières, économiques, budgétaires, stratégiques) sont désormais étroitement connectées. C'est pourquoi elles seront emportées dans une série de chocs successifs.

(4) Source : The Independent, 13/01/2011

(5) C'est même pire puisque c'est l'aide internationale qui a apporté le choléra dans l'île, faisant des milliers de morts.

(6) D'ailleurs Timothy Geithner, le ministre américain des Finances, peu connu pour son imagination débordante, vient d'indiquer que « le gouvernement américain pouvait avoir à nouveau à faire des choses exceptionnelles », en référence au plan de sauvetage des banques de 2008. Source : MarketWatch, 13/01/2011

(7) D'ailleurs l'Inde et l'Iran sont en train de préparer un système d'échange « or contre pétrole » pour tenter d'éviter des ruptures d'approvisionnement. Source : Times of India, 08/01/2011

(8) L'indice FAO des prix alimentaires vient de dépasser en Janvier 2011 (à 215) son précédent record de Mai 2008 (à 214).

(9) Les banques de Wall Street se débarrassent actuellement à très grande vitesse (sans équivalent depuis 2004) de leurs Bons du Trésor US. Leur explication officielle est « l'amélioration remarquable de l'économie US qui ne justifie plus de se réfugier sur les Bons du Trésor ». Bien entendu, vous êtes libres de les croire comme le fait le journaliste de Bloomberg du 10/01/2011.

(10) Ainsi l'Euroland avance déjà à grand pas sur le chemin décrit dans le GEAB N°50 d'une décote en cas de refinancement des dettes d'un Etat-membre ; tandis que désormais les dettes japonaise et américaine s'apprêtent à entrer dans la tourmente. Sources : Bloomberg, 07/01/2011 ; Telegraph, 05/01/2011

(11) Nous estimons que d'une manière générale les bilans des grandes banques mondiales contiennent au moins 50% d'actifs-fantômes dont l'année à venir va imposer une décote de 20% à 40% du fait du retour de la récession mondiale avec l'austérité, de la montée des défauts sur les prêts des ménages, des entreprises, des collectivités, des Etats, des guerres monétaires et de la reprise de la chute de l'immobilier. Les « stress-tests » américain, européen, chinois, japonais ou autres peuvent toujours continuer à tenter de rassurer les marchés avec des scénarios « Bisounours » sauf que cette année c'est « Alien contre Predator » qui est au programme des banques. Source : Forbes, 12/01/2011

(12) Chacun de ces marchés immobiliers va encore fortement baisser en 2011 pour ceux qui ont déjà entamer leur chute ces dernières années, ou dans le cas chinois, va entamer son dégonflement brutal sur fond de ralentissement économique et de rigueur monétaire.

(13) L'économie japonaise est d'ailleurs l'une des premières victimes de cette guerre des monnaies, avec 76% des chefs d'entreprises des 110 grandes sociétés nippones sondées par Kyodo News se déclarant désormais pessimistes pour la croissance japonaise en 2011 suite à la hausse du Yen. Source : JapanTimes, 04/01/2011

(14) Voici quelques exemples édifiants rassemblés par l'excellent John Rubino. Source : DollarCollapse, 08/01/2011

(15) Pour rappel, dans le GEAB N°48, du 15/10/2010, nous avions classé la Tunisie dans les « pays à risques importants » pour 2011.

(16) Nul doute d'ailleurs que l'exemple tunisien génère une salve de réévaluation parmi les agences de notation et les « experts en géopolitiques » qui, comme d'habitude, n'ont rien vu venir. Le cas tunisien illustre également le fait que ce sont désormais les pays satellites de l'Occident en général, et des Etats-Unis en particulier, qui sont sur le chemin des chocs de 2011 et des années à venir. Et il confirme ce que nous répétons régulièrement, une crise accélère tous les processus historiques. Le régime Ben Ali, vieux de vingt-trois ans, s'est effondré en quelques semaines. Quand l'obsolescence politique est là, tout bascule vite. Or c'est l'ensemble des régimes arabes pro-occidentaux qui est désormais obsolète à l'aune des évènements de Tunisie.

(17) Nul doute que cette paralysie des « parrains occidentaux » va être soigneusement analysée à Rabat, au Caire, à Djeddah et Amman par exemple.

(18) Configuration qui leur était la plus favorable puisque sans contrepoids à leur influence.

(19) Nous y revenons plus en détail dans ce numéro du GEAB, mais vu de Chine, on ne s'y trompe pas. Source : Xinhua, 02/01/2011

(20) Petit à petit les Européens découvrent qu'ils sont dépendants d'autres centres de pouvoir que Washington. Pékin, Moscou, Brasilia, New Delhi, … entrent très lentement dans le paysage des partenaires essentiels. Source : La Tribune, 05/01/2011 ; Libération, 24/12/2010 ; El Pais, 05/01/2011

(21) Toute l'énergie du Japon est concentrée sur sa tentative désespérée de résister à l'attraction chinoise. Quant aux autres pays occidentaux, ils ne sont pas en mesure d'influer significativement sur les tendances mondiales.

(22) La place du Dollar US dans le système mondial fait partie de ces derniers fondements que les BRIC érodent activement jour après jour.

(23) En matière de déficit, le cas américain est exemplaire. Au-delà du discours, tout continue comme avant la crise avec un déficit en gonflement exponentiel. Pourtant même le FMI tire désormais la sonnette d'alarme. Source : Reuters, 08/01/2011

(24) D'ailleurs même le Wall Street Journal du 12/01/2011, se faisant l'écho du Forum de Davos, s'inquiète de l'absence de coordination internationale, qui est en soi un risque majeur pour l'économie mondiale.

(25) Des millions d'Américains découvrent les banques alimentaires pour la première fois de leur vie, tandis qu'en Californie, comme dans de nombreux autres états, le système éducatif se désagrège rapidement. En Illinois, les études sur le déficit de l'Etat le comparent désormais au Titanic. 2010 bat le record des saisies immobilières. Sources : Alternet, 27/12/2010 ; CNN, 08/01/2011 ; IGPA-Illinois, 01/2011 ; LADailyNews, 13/01/2011

(26) L'Irlande qui est face à une reconstruction pure et simple de son économie est un bon exemple de situations à venir. Mais même l'Allemagne, aux résultats économiques pourtant remarquables actuellement, n'échappe pas à cette évolution comme le montre la crise du financement des activités culturelles. Tandis qu'au Royaume-Uni, des millions de retraités voient leurs revenus amputés pour la troisième année consécutive. Sources :
at

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