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Monday, January 17, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


The Difference Between The Gold Market Of Today And 1980

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 03:11 PM PST

Dear Extended Family,

This is reactive gold market as the product of the subjective recollection of the 1968 – 1980 bull gold market. The date is too on the spot to be coincidental.

It is a reaction only as circumstances are infinitely different now than they were in 1980. We have an ingrained systemic problem with false financial balance sheets. We have the specter of OTC derivatives that only grows and grows, preventing any Volcker type move. QE has a cumulative effect.

What broke the gold market in 1980 were as follows:

The bullishness was monumental with certain weekly respected business publications that are now anti gold were actually then wildly pro-gold. The editor, Mr. Bleighberg, wrote an editorial saying that I was a pinhead for calling Chairman Volcker a class act and was dangerous then to the price of gold.

The Comex board of directors unilaterally declared their written silver contract null and void. That is exactly what occurred when the Comex went to "sellers only" on Silver at a $53 bid, offered at $55 (Yes, that was the floor spread). That was the afternoon after trading on the day gold hit $887.50 on the Comex. With no transactions accepted that were buyers and sellers orders only, it left the Comex members to make the bids. Silver simply collapsed and platinum, started its $1000 daily limit moves on the downside. It was that which collapsed gold.

What primed gold for a flop were the actions of Chairman Paul Volcker. He was clearly on a path of bringing interest rates down from a level on the 10 year 14 7/8%, regardless of the cost to the country or the third world. There was a political ploy behind this to bust the then USSR by busting all their client nations. This gave Volcker the backing of the then administration.

Paul Volcker has recently left his post as Chairman of economic advisors to the present Administration. That event is telling. Bernanke is no Volcker. Do not buy into the MOPE that he retired due to age. He just got married so that boy has energy.

Position limits are a joke compared to "sellers only," meaning nothing to any commodity traded worldwide. All position limits will do is reduce the volume on US exchanges. It is so easy to get around that with non-US subsidiaries. The international non-US exchanges will celebrate this development.

Therefore with no Volcker and no "Sellers Only," any reaction in gold and silver is nothing more than what we have already experienced, a slight pause on the way to $1650 and higher.

The bears are out in force preparing to bully markets. Their ability to perform this is muted on repeated tries.

There are four men in gold that command my deepest respect outside of our direct family here at JSMineset. Those people are:

Alf Fields
Sir Harry Schultz.
Richard (The Good) Russell

Martin Armstrong.

Sir Harry has retired which I find sad. Alf Fields studies price and volume, but not cycles, in his unique and long proven track record. Richard has for decades of spoken truth of many markets. Martin Armstrong has distinguished himself in the study of cycles.

Yes, the gold market has faced opposition from the $1440 area.

Cycles do not predict price, only time. The Angels are stronger in meaning when it comes to price.

Alf has said he does not want to be too available to a public because trying to trade reactions in the gold price will defeat the insurance nature needed for the months and years ahead.

So far the bears have failed pitifully in terms of the months of oppression, price blocking and the only slight price change.

Do not mind the youngsters running hedge funds that are further run by algorithms. They are the ones that will cause the price of gold to meet prices like Armstrong's $5000 sooner than later.

Cycles look toward markets that validate their existence. Markets can deny the full term of degree of any cycle. They are judged by how they impact markets and not the other way around. They do and have had their effect, but always relative to what the markets do in order to judge the strength or weakness of the cycle itself.

The downward spiral of 2006 grinds on. No intervention has occurred to reverse this spiral. As such, the gold price will continue to rise as the masters of the economy continue the suicidal strategy of kicking the can down the dead end road.

States Will Soon Have To Start Paying Interest on Their Massive Unemployment Borrowing
by Olga Pierce 
Sometimes it's time to pay the piper. And sometimes that piper is the federal government. And sometimes the piper wants more than $1 billion. Soon.

Because of the high jobless rate and past fiscal irresponsibility, 30 states have collectively had to borrow more than $40 billion from the federal government just to keep unemployment insurance checks in the mail. A provision in the stimulus bill made those loans interest-free for an extended grace period.

But no more. Efforts to include an extension of the grace period in Obama's tax cut extension enacted at the end of last year failed, and the first batch of 14 states will have to start paying interest before the end of this year. Given that state budgets need to be hammered out in advance, that means state legislatures will soon face tough choices as they come back in session.

The amounts due range from California and Michigan, which each face payments of more than $300 million dollars, to Kansas, which will owe about $6 million. (Fun fact: That's $2 for every Kansan.) And because of federal rules, states can't use unemployment insurance taxes to make interest payments, which means cash-strapped states will have to take that money from their general budgets, so there will be less money for roads, schools and other priorities.

Because of a historical compromise, each state operates its own unemployment insurance fund with wide latitude to set tax rates and benefits. While some states were careful to save up and build a cushion of reserves in good years, others got themselves into this mess by maintaining dangerously low levels of reserves for years before the Great Recession hit. (How is your state doing? Check out our Unemployment Insurance Tracker.)

The bill is coming due at a particularly bad time for state legislatures, which already face an $82 billion shortfall for 2012, said Arturo Perez, a fiscal analyst for the National Conference of State Legislatures.

More…


Jim's Mailbox

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 02:52 PM PST

Dear Mr. Eric De Groot

I am a very long term reader of Mr. Sinclair and also your website, which I find extremely informative. I would be very grateful to you if you can comment or give your opinion on news that are coming out from different writers, especially lately, that gold and silver miners will be nationalised when price of both metals shoot substantially higher and Western countries experience huge budgets deficits.

Although on the other side I think that most miners are domiciled in West and have mines in developing countries. If Western countries nationalize them they may trigger the nationalization of the mines one by one by their home countries. Many of those miners actually do not possess the metals under the earth, but have royalties to extract that metal – therefore no need for nationalization. Also developing countries would have no interest to nationalize as they mainly have no technical know how to safely and efficiently bring metals to the ground. So I somehow belive that I may be quite sure that US and Canadian mines wont be nationalized, at least not in widespread nationalization, when gold and silver will march very high.

That is my take, and would be very kind for your opinion on your blog if you belive that is of some interest for other readers?

Thank you,
CIGA Alex

Alex,

History suggests that nationalization, while always a short-term possibility, is never sustainable over the long-term. Will the same individuals that run the post office for billions in losses be asked to manage exploration, development, and operations of highly-specialized assets?

What's the objective of a nationalized mine once the profit incentive has been removed? Will the refilling of Fort Knox, capping of gold, or some other official or unofficial reason motivate private capital to invest in nationalized interests? If not, can the inevitable disinvestment be overcome by investments from the printing press as some suggest?

If panic drives the government to nationalize resources what does that say about "king dollar" rhetoric. All actions have consequences. Any attempt to nationalize resources will only serve to redirect capital, the lifeblood of investment and economic growth, towards nations or regions that adhere to free market principles.

The collective answers to the questions above, unique to every investor, will direct capital as a whole.

Regards,
Eric

Dear Eric,

The recent deal I made with a government arm in Tanzania is the future, not nationalization, since no nationalized mines ever produce consistent products or any profits. The mineral rich countries are not stupid. Anyone thinking they are stupid is stupid. They want a fair deal and know they need us to work with them. It will take the majors a high degree of ego control to recognize this self evident fact.

Regards,
Jim

 

Dear Jim,

I have been dabbling in options recently and had a question concerning your recent Mineset post. You stated that it is prudent to move into further dated options when 50% of the options time has expired. Am I correct in assuming that this means 50% of the time from which you purchased the option? For instance if I bought April calls in October/November then I would be looking to trade those out further in the very near future?

Your friend,
CIGA Marc

Marc,

Only 50% of the time from which you purchased the option to the option expiration should be allowed until you start your spread forward operation.

I have published this repeatedly for those that use options for speculatively long or short positions.

Whenever you are naked long or short an option you need both time and price discipline. Screw the Delta, stay safe.

Regards,
Jim


Graham Summers’ Free Weekly Market Forecast (Resistance Edition)

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 02:28 PM PST

Graham Summers' Free Weekly Market Forecast (Resistance Edition)

The first and most critical item to note is that stocks have hit up against their upper trendline as denoted by their August, November and current tops. By most counts, this is THE upside target for this rally.

gpc 1-17-1

This level also happens to coincide with MAJOR resistance on the long-term weekly chart for the S&P 500, the level last seen right before stocks fell off a cliff in the 2008 Crash:

gpc 1-17-2

Of course, we could see a breakout from here. After all, the Fed is pumping $112 billion into the market during 18 of the next 19 trading sessions (with that kind of funny money hitting risk assets just about anything is possible).

However, given that the market is as overstretched as it's been since the Tech bubble and that we've seen stocks remain above their 10-DMA for 30 straight days (the only time this has happened in 82 years as noted by Sentiment Trader), the odds favor a correction here to at least 1,250 (the bottom trendline) if not 1,225 (last major top).

gpc 1-17-3

Much of this hinges on the Euro, which suffered the mother of all short squeezes last week, rallying a ridiculous 3% in just four trading sessions (an absurd move for a currency) thanks to literal intervention from Asia and verbal intervention from European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet.

However, the Euro has now come up against resistance: this current level has stopped the currency dead in its tracks three times in the last month and a half. This doesn't mean that we can't break this level. However, even if we do, we'd soon be at MAJOR resistance at 137.5.

gpc 1-17-4

Remember, regardless of short-covering bounces, the Euro HAS violated the trendline that support it from July onwards. This technical damage of that move was severe and makes the odds of additional downside significantly higher.

Speaking of violated trendlines, Silver has not only broken below its trendline but has since failed to reclaim it.  We have support at 28 but could easily see a drop to 25 and change if we break down from there.

gpc 1-17-5

This adds further support to the forecast that stocks could drop sharply from here. Remember, silver lead stocks to the upside during this latest rally. So silver's breakdown does not bode well for additional gains in stocks in the near-term.

gpc 1-17-6

Indeed, I view the latest pullbacks in Silver and Gold as MAJOR buying opportunities for both inflation hedges. It's also a phenomenal opportunity to buy the three inflation hedges detailed in my Inflationary Storm special report.

These three investments are THE BEST inflation hedges I know of. In fact, since recommending them on December 15, they've OUTPERFORMED Gold and Silver by 3%, 6%, and 19% respectively.

However, thanks to last week's correction in inflation hedges, these three investments are now only up 3%, 8%, and 12%.

In other words, this is an INCREDIBLE buying opportunity for all three of them. In fact, it's likely the best entry point investors will get AGAIN.

Why?

Because these three investments are currently unknown to 99.9% of the investment world. It is literally impossible for them to become less popular. Which means that they have only one direction to go and that's to become more and more known to the investment world.

After all, how many inflation hedges can you name that CRUSH Gold and Silver, rallying even when those precious metals FALL?

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Chris Martenson Interviews Marc Faber - Fed Bashing Ensues

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 02:16 PM PST


 "If there's one institution in the US that consistently and repeatedly messes up everything, the Federal Reserve is that institution."

So says famed investor Marc Faber in an interview he gave to ChrisMartenson.com this week. In it, Chris and he dive deep into the Fed activity (encouraged by Washington and Wall Street) responsible for the current severe health of our economic system. Both feel that once you understand the nature of the critical role the Fed now plays, you have much better clarity into what the most probable outcomes for our economy and financial markets will be.

Click here to listen to Chris' interview with Marc Faber

Read the Transcript of the Podcast

In this podcast, Marc explains his views on why: 

  • Government intervention into the free markets has been increasing since the early 1980s (S&Ls, Mexico, LTCM, etc) and is the root cause of our issues, as each intervention brings the system further off track
  • The principal vehicle for this intervention, the Fed, has a near-perfect track record of creating unsustainable asset bubbles (to which it is largely blind) when it intervenes
  • Since its founding, the Fed has been dedicated to expansionary monetary policy. When looking at history, there's an argument to be made that per capita price management in the US was better under the gold standard we had before the Fed.
  • We're on a direct path to higher inflation, despite the Fed's preference for raising the deflation spectre and citing the low (and ridiculously-calculated) CPI.
  • While the Fed is printing money with abandon right now (e.g. buying all new Treasury issuances for the next six months), doing so is raising the risk of a hyperinflationary currency collapse.
  • US government bonds are a disasterous investment going forward (even if the deflationists are right).
  • The revolving door between Wall Street and Washington motivates our leadership to preserve the status quo, which is corrosive to markets because smaller investors are waking up to the fact that the rules are stacked in favor of the big players. Investing as we have historically thought of it is dead.

In  Part 2: Prognosis for 2011 (for enrolled ChrisMartenson.com members - click here to enroll), Marc details his thinking on how the endgame will play out, as well as his specific outlook for 2011. 


Can A Sovereign Debt Crisis Happen Here? A Case Study Of The 1995 Debt Ceiling-Precipitated Government Shutdown

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 01:49 PM PST


Lately there has been a lot of chatter among the supposedly smarter-than-mainstream media that even should the debt ceiling not be raised, it would not mean the bankruptcy of America as interest payments would still be satisfied. While that technicality is absolutely true, it is even more absolutely irrelevant. What propagators of such theories forget is that lately there are just two exponential curve trendlines that are worth noting: that of the cumulative debt issuance, and of the US cumulative deficit (see chart below). Each month, the US issues around $50 billion more debt than is needed to just fund the deficit. This is debt that is on top of the debt that is needed to plug the different between revenues and expenditures. As Zero Hedge has pointed out repeatedly before, that ratio is already roughly 1 to 2, meaning for every dollar in revenue the US government issues more than one dollar of debt just to fund the deficit. And then some. As the chart below shows, in December alone the government issued $84.4 billion on top of the budget funding shortfall ($80 billion deficit and $164.4 billion in debt issuance)! So yes, while the Treasury can fund interest expense at record low interest levels, that is completely irrelevant. Unable to fund incremental expenses to the tune of hundreds of billions per month, the US government will shut down (a point when nobody will accept US government IOUs, not Social Security which passed the point of being self sustaining last year, and certainly not Medicare and Medicaid, and most certainly not private sector Defense Vendors) just like it did in 1995. Below, we present the key charts and the full report from a must read SocGen report on the sovereign debt crisis, titled Can It Happen Here? We urge all those who pretend to have an educated opinion on the US funding crisis to read this report before they open their mouths in public and once again validate their critics.

First, below is our chart showing the monthly and cumulative differential between debt issuance and fiscal deficit (starting in October 2006). In December, the cumulative divergence between the two reached an all time high of $1,819 billion.

And next, courtesy of Aneta Markowska and her economic team at Soc Gen, here are the charts (and some narrative) that everyone should be familiar with ahead of the March moot debates on raising the debt ceiling.

First, the chart below needs no introduction.

Instead of spouting essayistic platitudes on just how swell the world would react to a US debt ceiling breach, perhaps those so inclined to come off as edumacated on the topic could actually analyze what happened the last time the government shut down during a debt ceiling crisis. Luckily, SocGen has done so for everyone's benefit:

It is difficult to disentangle the full effect of the 1995-96 debt-ceiling crisis on bond yields since Fed expectations were also changing rapidly during that time. If there is any conclusion to be made, it is the market generally shrugged off the government shutdowns and instead focused on macro developments.

The government reached the debt ceiling in November, and Treasuries generally rallied over the next three months even as the situation in Washington continued to deteriorate. That said, the Fed was also easing monetary policy during this period, having lowered rates by 50bp to 5.25% between December 1995 and January 1996. Nonetheless, reviewing press reports from this period suggests that the market seemed to ignore the debate over the debt ceiling in the early stages, having assumed that politicians would never allow the US to go into default and that a resolution would be brought about quickly. The biggest move occurred in the final days of 1995 when the market was generally optimistic that a resolution would be achieved.

At the start of the New Year, the market realized that negotiations were falling apart with Treasury Secretary Rubin warning sending the 10-year yield 8bp higher. Around mid-February markets began to react negatively to any news related to the budget stand-off; that is until late March when the ceiling was lifted. Treasury yields increased about 80bps in less than a month during this period. However, Fed policy may have been a bigger factor behind this move as the economy started to improve and the market began pricing out any additional rate cuts. Rising equity prices also added to the upward pressure on bond yields.


The lessons that could be learned as we look to a potential stand-off this year is that bond markets generally cared less about developments in Washington and placed more emphasis on monetary policy and the macro environment. There was also a general sentiment that no politician really wants to drive the US into technical default. Treasury investors may also view the debt ceiling showdown in a positive light as it pushes the debate in the direction of fiscal reform.

Here is the brief summary (much more in the attached report) on whether a sovereign credit crisis can happen here:

Over the past year, Europe has been engulfed in a sovereign debt crisis which has led to the bailout of Greece and Ireland. The US fiscal situation has garnered a few headlines and has piqued some interest, but it has gathered no momentum. The main difference between the situation in Europe and the US is that the former is a near-term risk while the latter is a longer-term one. Although the US problem is in the distance, event risk is increasing and timelines could be compressed. Most notably, with Republicans taking over the House in  2011, there is an increased threat of a stand-off with respect to the raising of the debt ceiling, which could result in a government shutdown, similar to what happened in 1995.

US Treasuries remain a safe-haven asset despite growing fiscal concerns. US sovereign CDS spreads are among the lowest in the G10, and well below the likes of Ireland and Greece. US CDS spreads over the past year have reacted very little to the turmoil occurring in Europe, with US spreads cooling off from highs of around 60bp early in 2010 to about 40bp by the end of the year. In contrast, G10 Europe has seen spreads move higher.

The near-term risk of a negative credit event for the US is relatively low, but that is not to say that it may not happen. Current budget projections suggest that the US could face a high risk of a ratings downgrade in a few years, unless action is taken to reform government finances. This is a common feature among most mature economies. The US, like the weaker European countries, has the added risk of heavy reliance on foreigners to fund public sector deficits. Of course, the US benefits from a reserve currency and currency pegs which  maintain a steady bid for US assets, but the risk cannot be ruled out entirely. A significant decline in buying appetite could put the US on the spot much quicker than anticipated, as rising bond yields could bring the AAA rating Armageddon closer. In some ways, this could be a good thing as it should force policymakers to drop their bipartisan gloves in order to get things done.

All that said, the future trajectory of the US debt is unsustainable.

Yet above all, the next three charts are by far the most important in that they confirm three things we have been highlighting for a long time: i) US gross issuance will surge in the next several years; ii) so far the Fed is acquiring all the gross issuance by the Fed; this will end in June, opening up a massive hole that can not be filled by now traditional waning buying interest; iii) there has been a foreign strike for US treasury purchases which appears to be unending (look for this week's TIC data to confirm this decline in foreign interest in US Treasurys); iv) the propaganda's attempt to get retail out of bonds and into stocks will backfire, as much more demand for bonds is needed once the Fed departs the monetization scene. In other words, should ICI confirm a series of taxable debt outflows, it merely guarantees that QE 3 will be next up on the agenda as there will be no natural buyer of USTs left. However, for the Fed to get a carteblanche to monetize beyond the current QE sunset, there will have to be a sudden and dramatic capital markets shock as per the speech of Dallas Fed's Fisher last week. We expect a major orchestrated market crash in May or June to provide the Fed with the cover to continue monetizing the US deficit (i.e., treasury issuance). Either that or a sudden and dramatic deterioration in the economy. Look for Jan Hatzius to first of all Wall Street economists to flip his opinion from positive to negative as a first telegraphed sign that QE 3 will be up on the docket.

Below is SocGen's take on the "Achilles heel of the US fiscal situation" - external financing.

What would cause large shocks to the forward interest rate curve? One possibility is that foreign investors may reduce their appetite for Treasuries. Indeed, the heavy reliance on foreign funding is one of the key vulnerabilities facing the US government. This is also the main distinction between the US and Japan, and one that puts the US more in a European camp. Of course, the US has the advantage of a reserve currency and FX pegs are also a mitigating factor as they imply that foreign central banks have no choice but to continue buying US assets. These factors buy time, but they do not eliminate the risk altogether and a buyers’ strike is a risk that cannot be ignored. At the moment, bond investors have given the US government a benefit of doubt, but failure to address long-term fiscal challenges could ultimately trigger a loss of confidence and an outflow of capital from the Treasury market.

Currently, foreign investors hold 47% of Treasury debt outstanding, or about $4.2tn. Over the past four quarters foreigners have bought about 45% of new issuance, so their share remains constant for now. Households were big buyers in 2009-2010, but have reduced their purchases recently as the savings rate eased off its peak and as risk appetite has improved. Eventually, households and banks will have to buy even more, but for now there has been no deviation from the trends that prevailed in the past 10 years. Reliance on foreigners remains as high as ever.

Importantly, the risk does not lie with foreign central banks which are locked into Treasury buying by their exchange rate policies. The risk lies with private investors who have been significant buyers over the past year. Ironically, the US government has benefited from the European crisis which triggered a strong safe-haven bid in the Treasury market. By the same logic, a resolution of European sovereign problems could bring sovereign concerns into the US as capital outflows push Treasury yields higher. This is not a near-term concern, but one that we may have to consider at some point.

Of course, the Fed is the Treasury buyer of last resort, but the near-term outlook for the Fed could also prove problematic for Treasuries. The Fed has been soaking up most of the new issuance by the Treasury and private investors may demand a higher yield concession once the Fed exits its program in mid 2011.

Full must read presentation:

 

h/t Vassko


China Says the End of the Dollar is Near

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 01:31 PM PST

BEIJING—Chinese President Hu Jintao emphasized the need for cooperation with the U.S. in areas from new energy to space ahead of his visit to Washington this week, but he called the present U.S. dollar-dominated currency system a "product of the past" and highlighted moves to turn the yuan into a global currency.
"We both stand to gain from a sound China-U.S. relationship, and lose from confrontation," Mr. Hu said in written answers to questions from The Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post.
Mr. Hu acknowledged "some differences and sensitive issues between us," but his tone was generally compromising, and he avoided specific mention of some of the controversial issues that have dogged relations with the U.S. over the past year or so—including U.S. arms sales to Taiwan that led to a freeze in military relations between the world's sole superpower and its rising Asian rival.
Read full article


Strong Indications of Gold & Silver Shortages

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 12:19 PM PST

Since reaching new highs at the end of 2010 gold and silver have been sold off, and the selling has been particularly intense in the last few days. The news on the economy is almost exclusively bullish for the precious metals. From the price action one might be falsely led to believe that investment demand for the precious metals is waning. On the contrary the data analysis I will show in this article reveals strong indications of growing shortages and furthermore that the gold and silver markets are approaching "tipping points" that will lead to an acceleration of price appreciation.


Guest Post: Strong Indications of Gold & Silver Shortages

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 12:15 PM PST


Via Adrian Douglas Of Market Force Analysis

Strong Indications of Gold & Silver Shortages

Since reaching new highs at the end of 2010 gold and silver have been sold off, and the selling has been particularly intense in the last few days. The news on the economy is almost exclusively bullish for the precious metals. From the price action one might be falsely led to believe that investment demand for the precious metals is waning. On the contrary the data analysis I will show in this article reveals strong indications of growing shortages and furthermore that the gold and silver markets are approaching “tipping points” that will lead to an acceleration of price appreciation.

We will first consider silver because the data for silver is the most dramatic.

Figure 1

Figure 1 shows a cross plot of Comex silver futures open interest against the silver price since 2001. By looking at the data in this way the time element is removed and the relationship between open interest and price is revealed. On the left side of the chart the data falls within the green dotted ellipse. The long axis of the ellipse is slanted upwards which means that generally the data within the ellipse display a relationship wherein the price of silver increases as open interest increases and it falls as open interest declines. Within the green ellipse there are tightly packed clusters of data that have been enclosed in pink ellipses and are numbered from 1 through 4. Ellipse #1 is almost vertical; this data cluster is from the start of the bull market when silver was trading around $5/oz. Because this data cluster is almost vertical it means that at that time expansion of open interest did not result in an increase in price. In other words, there was sufficient supply of silver in the market that the commercials were ready to keep selling as many contracts short as speculators demanded. If all demand for contracts on the long side was met with eager short selling the price could never rise and it didn’t. The data within ellipse #1 demonstrate that whether the open interest was 60,000 contracts or 120,000 contracts the price remained around $5/oz. It can be seen, however, that this situation gradually changed. The data clusters 2, 3 and 4 are enclosed by ellipses whose long axes tip progressively more toward the horizontal as one goes toward the right of the chart. As the ellipse leans over it means that the price is becoming much more sensitive to the open interest. As open interest increases the sellers are only prepared to meet increasing demand from the speculators at ever increasing prices. The progressively decreasing slope of the long axes of the ellipses 1 through 4 is indicative of a tightening supply of physical silver. As the supply becomes tighter there are less willing sellers so there are only minimal increases in open interest for quite large increases in price.

The exciting revelation comes from ellipse #5 which is shown in red. This encompasses the open interest versus price data since silver went above $22/oz. The long axis of this ellipse is downward dipping. This means that as the price increases the open interest contracts! This means that in general existing shorts are covering their positions as the price rises. This is indicative of a looming chronic shortage. The owners of a commodity should be happy to sell at higher prices but that is not the case in silver. This shows that those who have committed to sell and don’t have the silver are buying back their commitments and those that have silver no longer want to sell it. There is no other way to interpret this change in relationship between open interest and price that has been developing over the last ten years. We have reached the tipping point where physical shortages are going to become more and more apparent.

John Embry in a recent interview with KWN explained how difficult it was to source physical silver for the Sprott Physical Silver Fund. In daily updates in the Midas column of www.lemetropolecafe.com I have shown how Comex silver inventories are shrinking and are not far from ten year lows. The Financial Times just reported on acute shortages of gold bars for investment in Asia.

Let’s now look at gold. Figure 2 shows a cross plot of Comex gold futures open interest against the gold price since 2001. There is a similar pattern to what was seen in silver except the lower volatility of gold results in the clusters being more tightly packed.

Figure 2

There are five ellipses shown in pink and numbered 1 through 5. The long axes of the ellipses tip toward the horizontal as one goes from left to right on the chart. Ellipse #1 encompasses data from very early in the bull market. The ellipse is almost vertical which means that at that time increased demand for gold futures was met willingly by the sellers such that increasing open interest resulted in only minor increases in price. It can be seen from ellipse #1 that an expansion of open interest from 100,000 contracts to 375,000 contracts resulted in the gold price increasing from $260/oz to $425/oz, an increase of $165/oz. The ellipse #5 shows that an increase of around 50,000 contracts (600,000 to 650,000) resulted in an increase in the gold price of almost $200/oz ($1200/oz to $1400/oz). Just as we saw with silver the tendency of the long axes of the ellipses to tilt over as we go from left to right on the chart is an indication of a growing shortage. Ellipse #6 has been marked in red. It is horizontal. That is not yet quite as dramatic as in the case of silver where the ellipse is downward sloping but nonetheless it is indicating a looming chronic physical shortage. This horizontal data cluster means that even as the price rises the sellers, considered overall as a group, can not be persuaded to sell more commitments to deliver gold in the future despite a rising price.

The clear trend in the data clusters that has developed over the last ten years indicates that the gold open interest will soon be declining with a rising price as is the case for silver. Taken together the data shows that in both gold and silver there is a growing reluctance of the traditional short sellers to meet rising demand even at elevated prices. This is strongly indicative of looming physical shortages. This conclusion is corroborated by many other market observations and anecdotal evidence. We are likely very close to the “tipping point” where shortages become exposed and a stampede of investors into precious metals to benefit from the accelerating prices will give rise to a feeding frenzy that will exacerbate the shortages.

Perversely the more the market becomes close to the tipping point the more we can expect the cartel of bullion banks to make bear raids as we have seen this last week because they desperately need to cover their short positions. However, in the case of silver and soon to be the case with gold a negatively correlated open interest to price relationship means that lower prices lead to higher open interest; in other words there is no way to cover at lower prices; the only way to cover is at higher prices. As this becomes increasingly obvious to the cartel the severity of the bear raids will decrease, particularly when the premiums in the physical market are showing that the bear raids are stimulating massive physical offtake making the predicament of the cartel ever more precarious.

This makes the brouhaha about the CFTC imposing position limits on the Comex a complete joke because, as always, the regulators are going to be too late.

Just like all the other nefarious financial engineering schemes that are falling like houses of cards, the scam of selling precious metals that do not exist is fast approaching a rendezvous with its day of reckoning.

h/t Peter


Allergic to Cognitive Dissonance

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 12:07 PM PST

Before the financial crisis of 2008, mentioning gold and silver among polite company was social suicide, nothing has changed today except the mode of death. Before 2008, the reaction was to ignore and ridicule the crazy person. Today, the reaction is to panic, and then try and forget about the bad news.


Why A Record Steep Curve Means The End Of The Fed's Subsidies To Banks

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 11:44 AM PST


Over the past week, one of the less noticed and more notable developments, was that the 2s10s quietly climbed back to just short of all time record wides: at 273 bps, the curve is just 13 basis point away from the all time record 286 bps achieved on February 2, 2010. For those who still don't understand how this most recent gift to the banks by the Fed and the government works, the math is that for every 100 bps in spread widening, banks make profits by borrowing free at the 2 Year and lending out at the 10 Year spread (on a Price x Volume basis, although as we will discuss momentarily while the price (i.e. spread) may be there the volume is missing), even as home prices decline by about 12% for each percentage point. In other words, in the past year the entire double dip in home prices can be attributed to the spike in long-term rates, which have in turn caused mortgage rates to jump to year highs. All of this has been predicated by increasing concerns that the Fed will allow runaway inflation, as a result pushing 10 and 30 Year spreads (and gold) ever higher. And while traditionally, a steep curve implies substantial bank profits, this time it is really is different, as demand for mortgages, by far the biggest bank product beneficiary from rising LT interest rates, is non-existent - recent new and refinancing mortgage applications are plumbing 15 year lows, meaning that even if banks make exorbitant profits on a spread basis, there is just not enough of them to go around, which in turn means that banks once again have to rely on accounting gimmicks such as declining reserve provisions to pad their books. And unfortunately for the banks, every incremental basis point increase from here on out only means accelerating home price deflation (regardless of how many days in a row cotton, wheat and whiskey closes limit up), which will wreak havoc on myth of any "recovery." This is in fact the most salient point of Scott Minerd's of Guggenheim latest letter: while the bulk of his latest thoughts is focused on Europe, we believe that the critical part if really that dealing with US interest rates. As he concludes: "The story in housing remains a compelling reason yields on the 10-year note above 4 percent are simply not sustainable at this juncture." We complete agree, which also means that the strawman of higher bank earnings due to the yield curve is now dead and buried. Alas for all the bank bulls, from this point on the only direction the curve can go is down... Unless of course the Fed really loses control of the long end in which case all bets are off and QE3 is sure include purchases of MBS.

From Scott Minerd:

In terms of interest rates in the United States, my view continues to be that of a period of sustained low rates with only marginal room to rise. The core of the story for why rates must stay low has to do with the continued depression in the housing market. Estimates for the current level of shadow inventory – i.e., the number of homes in some stage of default or foreclosure – broadly range from 4 million to 8 million units. Specifically, on November 17, Fed governor Elizabeth Duke told Congress that the Federal Reserve expects an additional 4.25 million foreclosure filings in 2011 and 2012.

When long-term interest rates rise, housing activity slows. Rates above 4 percent would create a myriad of issues for the housing market, not the least of which would be hamstringing the ability of financial institutions to work through the backlog of foreclosures on their balance sheets. Since the backup in interest rates began approximately eight weeks ago, we’ve started to see housing activity wane and housing prices decline again. If housing prices decline meaningfully, there is significant risk of another wave of mortgage defaults. The story in housing remains a compelling reason yields on the 10-year note above 4 percent are simply not sustainable at this juncture.

Further evidence against rates rising meaningfully comes from the historic relationship between the Fed funds rate and the 10-year Treasury yield. Over the past 30 years, the 10-year note has never been able to sustain a spread to the Fed funds rate greater than 375 basis points without precipitating a major rally. Currently, a spread of 375 basis points would translate into a 4 percent yield on the 10-year Treasury, which further leads me to believe that this is a pretty hard ceiling. I don’t necessarily think yields will get to 4 percent, but I do think they may test 3.80 before coming back down to the 3 percent range in the second half of the year.

On the other hand, Bernanke is not stupid, and we are confident that should long rates continue to surge which will make his precious banking cabal even stronger in the eyes of the propaspintura, the Chairman will simply do what Bill Gross has been telegraphing for months now: launch QE 3 with a muni and MBS focus. And if the S&P dares to dip even a little as a result, ETFs and REITs as well, as the US takes one more step toward becoming a Japanese style economic catastrophe.

Full Guggenheim Partners letter link.

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Quote du Jour

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 09:36 AM PST

"I invest in anything that Bernanke can't destroy, including gold, canned beans, bottled water and flashlight batteries." ~ David Stockman, Former US Budget Director Related reading: David Stockman Wikipedia David Stockman: U.S. Is in 'Race to the Fiscal Bottom' The Fiscal Times (6 Oct 10)


Deposed Tunisian President Ben Ali Said To Have Fled Country With 1.5 Tons Of Gold

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 09:10 AM PST


Not shares of AAPL, not freeze dried MREs, not shotguns shells, not even €45 million European pieces of linen in a suitcase... Gold. And one wonders why all the physical silver and gold is slowly but surely disappearing from the distributors: someone should really check the cargo hold of Lloyd's, Jamie's and Vikram's G-6 planes...and of course the extra cargo holds in the private helicopter squadron of that "other" Ben, elsewhere now known lovingly with the adjective of Blackhawk (f/k/a Helicopter).

From Le Monde (Google translated):

The family of ousted President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia would have fled with 1.5 tons of gold. It is an assumption of the French secret services, who try to understand how the day ended on Friday 14 January, which saw the departure of President and his family and the downfall of his regime.

According to information gathered in Tunis, Leila Trabelsi , the president's wife allegedly went to the Bank of Tunisia to look for gold bars. The governor refused. M me Ben Ali had called her husband, who had also initially refused, then surrendered. She then flew to Dubai, according to French news before leaving for Jeddah. "It seems that the wife of Ben Ali is a party with gold" , said a senior French official. "1.5 tonnes gold, that makes 45 million euros" , translated source.

Mr. Ben Ali, he does not believe his fall as fast. For proof, according to Paris, he recorded a new speech, which has not had time to appear. He would not leave the country voluntarily but would have been impeached. The army and the chief of staff who refused to fire on the crowd, have, according to European intelligence services played a leading role in the removal of Mr. Ben Ali.

It seems at least one person was smart enough to take heed in the Fed's just declassified records on what the surging price of gold means for food price inflation... and for popular revolutions derived therefrom.

The mode of departure of Mr. Ben Ali has also uncertainties. He seems to have found in the airspace of Malta, without a flight plan determined, stating that he did not, in his hasty departure from Tunisia, a precise destination. An Italian source said that the aircraft would not receive permission to land on the island. According to another hypothesis, the deposed president had left by helicopter for Tunis Malta, where he recovered his plane.

At least we now know that following the upcoming banking kleptocracy's exodus from the US, Malta may well be the newest destination location for every stripper in a 50 miles radius of Manhattan.

And like that Tunisia's official gold holdings (as per the WGC) are down by 23%:

h/t Cate Long


Sean Rakhimov: Silver Going Mainstream in 2011

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 08:29 AM PST


Should Goldmoney.com set their own price for Silver?

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 06:55 AM PST

MK: In my opinion, the leverage comes if more people get fed up and take physical delivery of Silver. As the Global Insurrection Against Banker Occupation grows, the price will continue to climb. We end up with high priced Silver, they end up with lots of debts. It’s just a matter of monetizing anger. The [...]


Got Gold Report - COMEX Commercials Much Less Short Gold

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 06:07 AM PST

This offering is a special report for Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) similar to, but not quite as comprehensive as a full COT Flash Report. We want to highlight and comment on some over-sized changes in the positioning of the largest commercial traders of gold and silver futures on the COMEX division of the CME.


In Justifying Hedge Fund Groupthink, Goldman Butchers The Greeks (Again)

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 05:51 AM PST


It was just under a year ago that we first learned that Greece had been cleverly scheming to fool the EU, EuroStat, and investors, foreign and domestic, about the true nature of its fiscal deficit courtesy of various currency swaps constructed by none other than Goldman Sachs: a process which would end up being the first time the "Greeks" were butchered by Goldman. The whole purpose of Goldman's innovative "revenue scheme" was to allow the Greek government to skirt the 3% fiscal deficit limit imposed by the EU on peripheral countries, in essence making Greece appear far stronger for years than it really was. It is this deceit that laid the seeds for the current Eurozone insolvency which requires a virtually daily bailout. Amusingly, yesterday we also learned that it was the US Federal Reserve which knew about this willfully fraudulent misrepresentation as long ago as March 2005, as disclosed in the most recent Fed minutes: "CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. Can we borrow from the Greeks? [Laughter] MR. KOS. It’s interesting, since they are at about double the 3 percent limit. So the markets are not punishing anybody for not complying." Of course, nobody is laughing now that the markets are certainly punishing those for not complying with a vengeance. Had the Fed brought attention to this, the outcome for the now doomed Eurozone and the EUR would have been different. Now it's too late. And in this vein, on Friday it was once again Goldman which put the last nail in the coffin of the "Greeks" only this time not so much the insolvent nation, as the much-suffering letters &lpha; and β. The reason for this is that also on Friday, the WSJ ran a great article which basically blasted hedge fund groupthink, confirming that the only so-called strategies that work now are those that copycat the whale asset managers (courtesy of much delayed 13F/G filings). David Kostin, fearing that his groupthink-promoting authority is being challenged (not to mention his recent promotion to partner at Goldman), immediately came to the rescue of the hedge fund hotel habituals, in essence saying that beta is really alpha, and only fools don't do what the big boys are doing. In traditional Goldman fashion, ruin follows about 5 years later to all who follow the firm's advice (long after the commissions have been converted to gold stores in various non-extradition countries). This time we are confident the event horizon will be far shorter.

First a quick look at the key WSJ observation:

Hedge funds are crowding into more of the same trades these days, amplifying market swings during crises and unnerving investors. Such trading has stoked market jitters in recent months and helped to diminish the impact of corporate fundamentals on stock-market movements. Droves of small investors have reacted by pulling money from the market, questioning its stability and whether fast-moving traders are distorting prices.

The pack behavior undermines the image of hedge-fund chiefs as savvy money managers who sniff out investment opportunities that others don't see—thereby justifying the hefty fees they charge clients. It also suggests that hedge funds are having a harder time coming up with money-making ideas in rocky markets.

One explanation is that they are focusing increasingly on the same stocks. Last year, for example, stock in Apple Inc. was held by 55 of the nearly 200 large hedge funds tracked by AlphaClone LLC. In 2008, by comparison, the favorite hedge-fund stock, Microsoft Corp., was held by 34 funds.

"The whole hedge-fund industry is a series of crowded trades," says Mr. Lo.

Of course, this all works miracles on the way up, when the pleasant melt up is first created by the big whales, those located the closest to zero cost of debt financing, then the slower and dumber pilot fish, then finally the retail lemmings. And when everyone rushes to the exit you get a May 6 event.

It has gotten so bad that even traditional venues such as Value Investing Club (not to be confused with the irrelevant "Congress") where prominent hedge fund manager pseudonyms and their proxies would talk their positions as soon as established, see little participation commentary any more:

Mr. Loeb, once a proponent of exchanging ideas, has changed his tune. "We will no longer discuss investments made prior to our public" filings, Mr. Loeb wrote in a June 2010 client letter. "We have found that discussing our ideas may result in 'piling on' by other hedge funds who may subsequently sell at inopportune times resulting in greater hedge fund concentration and volatility." Mr. Loeb, whose main fund gained 34% last year, declined to comment.

One area where the groupthink phenomenon is very hot and heavy is in the quant world where pustular 19 year old math PhDs seek safety in numbers to validate that their only trading gimmick, be it regression to the mean or momentum chasing, is viable for another few milliseconds.

SEC examiners in recent months also have questioned "quantitative" traders, who rely on computer models, about any information they're passing to each other and how, say people familiar with the matter. The SEC declined to comment.

Yet it is precisely this focus on the woefully stupid approach of trading on others' coattails that has gotten the green light for a response from the very big boys: in this case Goldman Sachs, and its key voodoo chartist: David Kostin.

We recommend investors use our hedge fund holdings baskets to generate alpha during “risk-on” rallies and as a tool for risk reduction during periods of elevated market uncertainty. Our analysis shows hedge fund holdings generally outperform during equity market rallies and lag during corrections. Time horizon is vital to understanding how hedge fund ownership data should be incorporated into the portfolio management process. On a daily or even weekly basis hedge fund positioning is noisy in terms of explaining relative excess return. However, on a quarterly basis the hit rate of outperformance of hedge fund positions is notable.

So somehow Goldman makes alpha the equivalent of beta. And not just any beta, but very, very levered beta. The kind that requires an account to be in very good standing with Goldman's Prime Broker group so that leverage comparable to that last seen in the summer of 2007 can be applied with impunity. And then when it is unwind time, the dumb money can ride in on indications of interest born from stale 13F filings, and which most often see the original money selling their shares to the last hot potato holders. Just like Greece back in the early 2000s, which closely followed Goldman's advice and ended up being broke, so those who follow Kostin's advice and become the latest entrant in the biggest hedge fund hotel in the world, Apple, will end up either bankrupt, or begging for ECB assistance on a daily basis. In the meantime, Goldman is merely doing its civic duty to make everyone join in a dance which has increasingly fewer stocks in it, in a market that has increasingly less volume participation, and in the process collect what is left of trading commissions. As for the next step: well, Goldman has a very active debtor restructuring group and will be happy to pitch its services too...

Full (ir)relevant commentary from David Kostin:

A front page story in today’s Wall Street Journal (“Hedge Funds’ Behavior Magnifies Swings in Market,” January 14, 2011) highlighted the relative performance of so-called “crowded” hedge fund trades versus the broad market. The premise of the article is that hedge fund ownership magnifies the beta of particular stocks and reduces the importance of company fundamentals in determining share performance.

We long ago concluded that money flow is important to the performance of stocks and that it made sense to follow the proverbial “smart money.” We have analyzed more than 7,000 individual stock and ETF positions of roughly 600-800 hedge funds every 90 days for the past decade. Five years ago we started publishing our quarterly Hedge Fund Trend Monitor to track the hedge fund money flow into and out of individual stocks and hedge fund sector tilts on both a long and net basis.

1. Time horizon is vital to understanding how hedge fund ownership data should be incorporated into the portfolio management process. On a daily or even weekly basis, hedge fund positioning is noisy in terms of explaining relative excess return. However, on a quarterly basis the hit rate of outperformance of hedge fund positions is notable.

For example, our basket of stocks with the “most concentrated” hedge fund ownership (Bloomberg ticker: ) has a 71% hit rate of quarterly outperformance versus the S&P 500 since May 2001 with an average quarterly excess return of 296 bp.
Our basket of “stocks that matter most” to hedge funds () has outperformed the S&P 500 on a quarterly basis 66% of the time since 2001 by an average of 74 bp. [and here we get the all important footnote from Goldman: "Note: The ability to trade these baskets will depend upon market conditions, including liquidity and borrow constraints at the time of the trade." in other words everyone can get in, but when everyone has to get out, nobody will. Enjoy.]

2. Our analysis shows hedge fund holdings generally outperform during equity market rallies and lag during corrections. We recommend investors use our hedge fund holdings baskets to generate alpha during “risk-on” rallies and as a tool for risk reduction during periods of elevated market uncertainty (see Exhibits 1-3).

For example, our “most concentrated” hedge fund basket has outperformed the S&P 500 by an average of 868 bp (745 on median basis) during the six rallies since the market low in March 2009 and underperformed the S&P 500 by an average of 322 bp (385 bp on median basis) during market corrections.

The reverse is also true! Our basket of “least concentrated” hedge fund positions (Bloomberg ticker: ) lagged the S&P 500 during market rallies by average and median of 69 bp but outperformed the broad market by an average of 99 bp (37 bp on median basis) during corrections.

Our hedge fund VIP list (Bloomberg: ) consists of stocks in which fundamentally-driven hedge funds have a large stake. We define stocks that “matter most” to hedge funds as the positions that appear most frequently among the top ten holdings within hedge fund portfolios. For this analysis, we limit our hedge fund universe to funds with 10 to 200 distinct equity positions in an attempt to isolate fundamentally-driven investors from quantitative funds or funds that mirror private equity investments. Hedge funds own between 1% and 38% of the equity cap of the stocks in the basket with an average of 9%, almost twice the 5% average for the S&P 500.

By construction, our VIP list identifies the 50 stocks whose performance will largely influence the long side of many fundamentally driven hedge funds. The VIP basket lagged the S&P 500 by 822 bp during 2008 (-45% vs. -37%). It reversed in 2009, outperforming S&P 500 by 1,391 bp (40% vs. 27%). In 2010, the basket outperformed S&P 500 by 443 bp (19% vs. 15%).

Our VIP basket has a large-cap bias with a median market capitalization of $49 billion compared with $11 billion for the S&P 500. The VIP basket overweights the Information Technology sector (24%) and underweights Industrials (2%). Turnover for the VIP basket since 2001 averages 34% quarterly (52% annually) with 17 stocks typically entering the basket. The next re-balancing will take place after February 15, 2011.

Current constituents of our hedge fund VIP basket scheduled to report 4Q 2010 results next week include the following. Tuesday: C, AAPL, IBM. Wednesday: WFC and USB. Thursday: GOOG and FCX. Friday: SLB and BAC. Exhibit 52 contains the complete list of constituents for all three baskets.

We define “concentration” as the share of market capitalization owned in aggregate by hedge funds. The stocks in the “most concentrated” basket tend to be mid-caps (at the lower end of the S&P 500 capitalization distribution). Hedge funds own between 17% and 48% of the equity cap of the stocks in the basket with an average of 24% vs. 5% for the S&P 500. Stocks with the “most concentrated” hedge fund ownership outperformed the S&P 500 in 2010 by 84 bp (16% vs. 15%).

In contrast, hedge funds own between 0.2% and 0.6% of the equity cap of the stocks in our “least concentrated” hedge fund basket with an average of 0.5% vs. 5% for the S&P 500. The basket outperformed the S&P 500 in 2010 by 255 bp (18% vs. 15%).

Translation: ignore the voice of reason which argues that if everyone else is on the same side of the trade, then you are the guaranteed sucker on the table, and instead follow the Siren song promising untold riches... until such time as there is an actual downtick in the market (better known as the 100 or so shares that make up 50% of market volume) and where no matter how hard you try to get out, you are stuck. For reference: see the first time Goldman butchered the Greeks...

And some pretty charts: ignore the fact that the least concentrated stocks are solidly outperforming their most widely held cousins...

 


JANUARY 2011 - MAJOR MARKETS (DOW, S&P, GOLD, OIL) Technical Commentary

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 05:50 AM PST


HO HO HO! Santa Claus rally did happen (again!!!). Perhaps, this seasonal phenomenon is really worth playing. Following the previous analysis in November, technically the markets were carving out bullish structure across the board with the fundamental backdrop of QE2 – therefore a few conditional (bullish/reversal candles at key levels) calls were made, which went down successfully. However, at this juncture probability increases for sizeable pullbacks and corrections in risk assets. DesiHedge January 2011 MAJOR MARKETS (DOW, S&P, GOLD, OIL) Technical Commentary


For previous newsletters visit DESIHEDGE | Monthly Analysis

 


Gold Bull Market … Far From Over

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 05:14 AM PST

The bull market in Gold is entering its tenth consecutive year of a long term uptrend. In the entire history of the US stock market, 1885 – 2011, there has only been one long term uptrend that was longer. The thirteen year, 1987 – 2000, long term uptrend that led to the dotcom bubble in the late 1990&rime;s. For many, this type of bull market in Gold will be a once in a lifetime event.


Not Only Commodities are Signaling Hyperinflation

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 04:55 AM PST

FGMR - Free Gold Money Report January 15, 2011 – The rise in commodity prices over the past several months has been unrelenting. Equally unrelenting has been the stream of central bank apologists aiming to re-direct the blame for soaring prices to almost everything imaginable except the real cause, which of course is unrestrained money printing. Here is a chart that shows rising prices that cannot be blamed on bad weather, failed crops, global warming, a new ice age or sunspots. This chart of the S&P 500 Index shows a near perfect correlation to the Federal Reserve’s money printing, a/k/a “quantitative easing”. The S&P Index and other stock indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average are not rising because of better economic conditions or an improved outlook for economic activity. Stock prices are rising because of money printing, just like they did in the early days of the hyperinflations in Weimar Germany, Argentina, Zimbabwe and ever...


Precious Metals Default Scenarios

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 04:52 AM PST

For obvious reasons, there has been a great deal of discussion about actual, formal "defaults" in the gold and silver markets. Among those "obvious reasons" is that informal defaults are apparently already taking place in both markets.

Beginning in the London gold market over a year ago, and now rumored to be occurring in New York's "Comex" silver futures market, buyers who have legally contracted to take "physical delivery" of the metals they have purchased are said to be accepting large, paper bribes to accept a "cash settlement" instead.

There are many reasons for investors to take such "rumors" seriously. Empirically, we see the premiums being charged for physical bullion (even from large, established dealers) rising to levels never before seen (around the world). This strongly suggests a very tight market for bullion. This is confirmed through the anecdotal reports of both industrial users and large institutional investors (such as Sprott Asset Management) that they are having a great deal of difficulty locating any large quantities of bullion available for sale.

In theoretical terms, we are merely seeing the culmination of arrogant bankers attempting to defy the elementary laws of supply and demand for over a quarter of a century. Even those with no training in economics know the basic rule (since it is merely an expression of common sense): when prices rise, demand falls; when prices fall, demand rises.

There are many derivative principles which flow from this one basic law. Among the most salient (and the one apparently beyond the comprehension of bankers) is that if you under-price any good it will be over-consumed. I have demonstrated the unequivocal truth of this principle previously, and so will not do so again. Suffice it to say that in deliberately under-pricing gold and silver for well over a quarter of a century (through their relentless manipulation of these markets), the bankers have caused more than 25 years of excessive demand – where previous surpluses in these markets have been transformed into huge supply-deficits.

In the gold market, where virtually all of the bullion ever produced has been conserved, this distortion of markets has merely resulted in a massive transfer of bullion: out of the vaults of the West and into the vaults of the East. The situation in the silver market is entirely different.

Being both much cheaper than gold, and possessing even more superior chemical and metallurgical properties, silver was written off by those with no understanding of precious metals as merely an "industrial" commodity. As a matter of common sense, the rapid increase in industrial demand for silver must make it more "precious" rather than less so.

Illustrating this elementary logic, the combination of gross under-pricing and surging industrial demand has served to decimate global silver stockpiles and inventories. Noted silver researcher Ted Butler has estimated that global stockpiles of silver plummeted from over 6 billion ounces (fifty years ago) to approximately 1 billion ounces today. Silver is literally six times "more precious" today than it was a half-century earlier. In terms of "inventories" (the amount of silver actually available for sale today), the destruction caused by the bankers is even more apparent.

Between 1990 and 2005, global silver inventories plummeted by roughly 90%: from over 2 billion ounces to little more than 200,000 ounces. Since 2005, there has been a massive inventory-sham perpetrated by the bankers and the quasi-official "keeper of records" for the gold and silver sector: GFMS and the CPM Group. Through the farcical practice of adding the paper-bullion of silver "bullion-ETF's" to inventories and pretending this represents "new silver", inventories have magically "risen" by roughly 400% since then – despite the seemingly incongruous facts that silver demand has increased dramatically, while supply has remained flat.

In fact, any bullion actually held in a bullion-ETF cannot be an "inventory", since it fails to satisfy the basic definition: it is not for sale, but rather is privately held by the unit-holders of these funds. How can the holders of such funds sleep at night, knowing that the legal "custodian" of their bullion is telling the world that their silver is "for sale"?


Dollar system is 'product of the past,' Chinese president says

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 04:52 AM PST

Hu Highlights Need for U.S.-China Cooperation, Questions Dollar By Andrew Browne The Wall Street Journal Sunday, January 16, 2011 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870355160457608580380177609... BEIJING -- Chinese President Hu Jintao emphasized the need for cooperation with the United States in areas from new energy to space ahead of his visit to Washington this week, but he called the present U.S. dollar-dominated currency system a "product of the past" and highlighted moves to turn the yuan into a global currency. "We both stand to gain from a sound China-U.S. relationship, and lose from confrontation," Mr. Hu said in written answers to questions from The Wall Street Journal and another U.S. newspaper. Mr. Hu acknowledged "some differences and sensitive issues between us," but his tone was generally compromising, and he avoided specific mention of controversial issues that have dogged relations with the U.S. over the past year or so—including U.S. ...


Strong Indications of Gold & Silver Shortages

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 04:50 AM PST

By Adrian Douglas Since reaching new highs at the end of 2010 gold and silver have been sold off, and the selling has been particularly intense in the last few days. The news on the economy is almost exclusively bullish for the precious metals. From the price action one might be falsely led to believe that investment demand for the precious metals is waning. On the contrary the data analysis I will show in this article reveals strong indications of growing shortages and furthermore that the gold and silver markets are approaching “tipping points” that will lead to an acceleration of price appreciation. We will first consider silver because the data for silver is the most dramatic. Figure 1 Figure 1 shows a cross plot of Comex silver futures open interest against the silver price since 2001. By looking at the data in this way the time element is removed and the relationship between open interest and price is revealed. On the left side of the chart the ...


Dollar system is 'product of the past,' Chinese president says

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 03:56 AM PST

You can stop living in it any time you want, Hu baby.

* * *

Hu Highlights Need for U.S.-China Cooperation, Questions Dollar

By Andrew Browne
The Wall Street Journal
Sunday, January 16, 2011

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870355160457608580380177609...

BEIJING -- Chinese President Hu Jintao emphasized the need for cooperation with the United States in areas from new energy to space ahead of his visit to Washington this week, but he called the present U.S. dollar-dominated currency system a "product of the past" and highlighted moves to turn the yuan into a global currency.

"We both stand to gain from a sound China-U.S. relationship, and lose from confrontation," Mr. Hu said in written answers to questions from The Wall Street Journal and another U.S. newspaper.

Mr. Hu acknowledged "some differences and sensitive issues between us," but his tone was generally compromising, and he avoided specific mention of controversial issues that have dogged relations with the U.S. over the past year or so—including U.S. arms sales to Taiwan that led to a freeze in military relations between the world's sole superpower and its rising Asian rival.

On the economic front, Mr. Hu played down one of the main U.S. arguments for why China should appreciate its currency -- that it will help China tame inflation. That is likely to disappoint Washington, which accuses China of unfairly boosting its exports by undervaluing the yuan, making its products cheaper overseas. The topic is expected to be high on U.S. President Barack Obama's agenda when he meets Mr. Hu at the White House on Wednesday.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan power plants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php



Mr. Hu also offered a veiled criticism of efforts by the U.S. Federal Reserve to stimulate growth through huge bond purchases to keep down long-term interest rates, a strategy that China has loudly complained about in the past as fueling inflation in emerging economies, including its own. He said that U.S. monetary policy "has a major impact on global liquidity and capital flows and therefore, the liquidity of the US dollar should be kept at a reasonable and stable level."

Mr. Hu's veiled criticism of the Fed reflects widespread feelings among developing nations that U.S. interest rate policy is devaluing the dollar, prompting flows of hot money overseas and creating inflation abroad. China and other developing countries would like the Fed to factor in those consequences when it makes decisions. Fed officials counter that their mandate is to bolster the U.S. economy and that a stronger U.S. economy is in the interests of China and other countries, which depend heavily on trade and investment from the U.S.

This could be a major issue of contention between Messrs. Hu and Obama. The U.S. blames Chinese currency undervaluation -- not Fed policy making -- for worsening competitive and inflation problems overseas.

Mr. Hu reiterated China's belief that the global financial crisis reflect "the absence of regulation in financial innovation" and the failure of international financial institutions "to fully reflect the changing status of developing countries in the world economy and finance." He called for and international financial system that is more "fair, just, inclusive, and well-managed."

Mr. Hu, who also heads China's ruling Communist Party, rarely interacts with the international media. The Wall Street Journal submitted a series of questions to China's Foreign Ministry for Mr. Hu to answer. The Washington Post also submitted questions. The Foreign Ministry supplied Mr. Hu's responses to seven questions -- but did not addess questions about imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo, China's growing naval power, and complaints about alleged Chinese cyberattacks, among others.

Some of Mr. Hu's most significant comments dealt with the future of the dollar and currency exchange rates.

"The current international currency system is the product of the past," he said, noting the primacy of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and its use in international trade and investment.

The comment is the latest sign that the dollar's future continues to concern the most senior levels of the Chinese government. Beijing fears not only that loose U.S. monetary policy is fueling inflation, but that it will erode the value of China's holdings of dollars within its vast foreign-exchange reserves, which reached $2.85 trillion at the end of 2010.

China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, created an international stir in March 2009 by calling for the creation of a new synthetic reserve currency as an alternative to the dollar. Mr. Hu's comments add to the sense that China intends to challenge the post-World War II financial order largely created by the U.S. and dominated by the dollar.

Mr. Hu called attention to China's accelerating effort to expand the role of its own currency, describing recent moves to allow greater use of the yuan in cross-border trade and investment-while acknowledging that making it a fully fledged international currency "will be a fairly long process."

China's moves already have spawned a thriving market for offshore trading of yuan in Hong Kong, and are widely seen as first steps towards making the yuan an international currency in line with China's new prominence as the world's second largest economy. Mr. Hu offered an enthusiastic endorsement of what are officially described as currency "pilot programs." They "fit in well with market demand as evidenced by the rapidly expanding scale of these transactions," he said.

Mr. Hu didn't signal any changes on the most sensitive aspect of China's currency policy: the exchange rate. Last week U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner reiterated the U.S. position that a stronger yuan is in China's own best interests, because it would help tame rising inflation that has become a key risk to China's rapid growth, which is underpinning the global economic recovery. A stronger yuan would reduce the price of imports in local-currency terms.

But Mr. Hu shrugged off the U.S. argument, saying that China is fighting inflation with a whole package of policies, including interest-rate increases, and "inflation can hardly be the main factor in determining the exchange rate policy."

Further, Mr. Hu suggested that inflation was not a big worry, saying prices were "on the whole moderate and controllable." He added: "We have the confidence, conditions, and ability to stabilize the overall price level."

He renewed a Chinese pledge to offer a level playing field in China for U.S. companies, who have complained about aggressive Chinese moves to usurp their technology and shut them out of massive government procurement contracts.

"All foreign companies registered in China are Chinese enterprises," Mr. Hu said, responding to concerns that China discriminates in government procurement against foreign businesses as part of its drive to encourage so-called "indigenous innovation." He added: "Their innovation, production, and business operations in China enjoy the same treatment as Chinese enterprises."

The U.S. has been pressing China to revamp its plans for so-called indigenous innovation, which limits the types of government development projects and requires that companies get government approval to participate. China has pledged to join the World Trade Organization's government procurement agreement, which limits a country's ability to discriminate. But the U.S. and other countries say that so far China's WTO offer is inadequate because it exempts provinces, municipalities and state-owned enterprises. Last month China pledged to come up with a newer offer that would better restrict a buy-Chinese provision. During the Hu visit, the U.S. hopes to see some other commitments on this front from China.

Mr. Hu began his answers with a relatively upbeat assessment of China-U.S. relations, which he said had "on the whole enjoyed steady growth" since the start of this century.

He spoke of expanding cooperation from economy and trade into new areas like new energy, infrastructure development, and aviation and space. "We should abandon the zero-sum Cold War mentality," he said, and "respect each other's choice of development path."

On the diplomatic front, Mr. Hu entirely glossed over what has been one of the most dramatic developments of the past year -- a series of disputes between a more assertive China and its neighbors that has given the U.S. an opening to shore up its relations with a part of the world that felt neglected by Washington while it prosecuted war in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In the past year, China has feuded with Japan over the seizure of a Chinese fishing boat and its crew off disputed islands; opened deep differences with South Korea because of its subdued response to military provocations by North Korea; and alarmed countries in Southeast Asia by declaring the South China Sea and its energy and mineral riches one of its "core interests."

"Mutual trust between China and other countries in this region has deepened in our common response to tough challenges, and our cooperation has continuously expanded in our pursuit of mutual benefit and win-win outcomes," Mr. Hu said, ignoring the regional turmoil.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference
Wednesday-Thursday, January 19-20, 2011

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Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Sunday-Monday, January 23-24, 2011

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2011/15

Cheviot Asset Management Sound Money Conference
Guildhall, London
Thursday, January 27, 2011

http://www.gata.org/files/CheviotSoundMoneyConferenceInvite.pdf

Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit
Renaissance Glendale Hotel and Spa
Friday-Saturday, February 18-19, 2011
Glendale, Arizona

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Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

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Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf


Excerpt: On Crashing Morgan

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 03:30 AM PST

By Catherine Austin Fitts Solari.com investment adviser Catherine Austin Fitts tells Financial Survival Radio why the "Crash JP Morgan" (which she recommends and supports) by purchasing physical silver is unlikely to crash Morgan. Continue reading the article . . .


Check out the Gold Standard Institute

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 03:12 AM PST

11:10a ET Sunday, January 16, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA doesn't advocate a gold standard for currencies, figuring that free markets in the precious metals would achieve the objectives offered for a gold standard even better than a gold standard itself would -- objectives like limited government, personal liberty, property rights, prosperity, peace, and the end of imperialism. After all, isn't defeating those objectives exactly why central banks struggle so mightily against free markets in the precious metals?

But as they increasingly recognize the irredeemability of the debt that is choking the world financial system, some people are beginning to see that gold's ancient virtues as money may have to be summoned to rescue the system in one way or another, gold being, as the economist Antal Fekete constantly reminds us, the only practical extinguisher of debt, money without counterparty risk. So discussion of a gold standard is gaining respectability, and you may want to start following the Gold Standard Institute, a new organization based suitably enough in Vienna, home of the Austrian economic school of thought. The Gold Standard Institute's latest newsletter can be found here:

http://goldstandardinstitute.org/GSI/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/TheGoldS...

You can subscribe to the newsletter for free by using the mechanism at the top left of the home page of the institute's Internet site here:

http://goldstandardinstitute.org/GSI/home-2/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Join GATA here:

Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference
Wednesday-Thursday, January 19-20, 2011

http://theyukonroom.com/yukon-eblast-static.html

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Sunday-Monday, January 23-24, 2011

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2011/15

Cheviot Asset Management Sound Money Conference
Guildhall, London
Thursday, January 27, 2011

http://www.gata.org/files/CheviotSoundMoneyConferenceInvite.pdf

Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit
Renaissance Glendale Hotel and Spa
Friday-Saturday, February 18-19, 2011
Glendale, Arizona

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/phoenix-investment-confere...

Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Prophecy Drills 71.17 Metres of 0.52% NiEq
(0.310 % Nickel 0.466 g/t PGMs +Au and 0.223% Copper)
from surface at Wellgreen Project in the Yukon

Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V: PCY) reports that it has received additional assays results from its 100-percent-owned Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu property in the Yukon, Canada. Diamond drill holes WS10-179 to WS10-182 were drilled during the summer of 2010 by Northern Platinum (which merged with Prophecy on September 23, 2010). WS10-183 was drilled by Prophecy in October 2010. Highlights from the newly received assays include 71.17 metres from surface of 0.52 percent NiEq (0.310 percent nickel, 0.466 g/t PGMs + Au, and 0.233 percent copper) and ended in mineralization. For more drill highlights, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov29.php



James Turk: Not only commodities are signaling hyperinflation

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 02:45 AM PST

10:45a ET Sunday, January 15, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Free Gold Money Report editor James Turk, founder of GoldMoney and consultant to GATA, has just published a chart showing the correlation of the Federal Reserve's "quantitative easing" with with the U.S. stock market.

Turk concludes: "The S&P Index and other stock indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average are not rising because of better economic conditions or an improved outlook for economic activity. Stock prices are rising because of money printing, just as they did in the early days of the hyperinflations in Weimar Germany, Argentina, Zimbabwe, and every other country ravaged by misguided government and central bank policies."

You can find Turk's commentary at the Free Gold Money Report Internet site here:

http://www.fgmr.com/not-only-commodities-are-signaling-hyperinflation.ht...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan power plants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php


Join GATA here:

Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference
Wednesday-Thursday, January 19-20, 2011

http://theyukonroom.com/yukon-eblast-static.html

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Sunday-Monday, January 23-24, 2011

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2011/15

Cheviot Asset Management Sound Money Conference
Guildhall, London
Thursday, January 27, 2011

http://www.gata.org/files/CheviotSoundMoneyConferenceInvite.pdf

Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit
Renaissance Glendale Hotel and Spa
Friday-Saturday, February 18-19, 2011
Glendale, Arizona

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/phoenix-investment-confere...

Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf


Adrian Douglas: Strong indications of gold and silver shortages

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 02:37 AM PST

10:20a ET Sunday, January 16, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

In his new statistical study, GATA board member Adrian Douglas, publisher of the Market Force Analysis newsletter, reports that gold and silver futures market data show growing shortages of the metals, as open interest is losing its correlation with price. Douglas concludes that bullion bank bear raids like last week's are losing their capacity to cover short positions and that short positions henceforth are likely to be covered only with rising prices. Douglas' study is titled "Strong Indications of Gold and Silver Shortages" and you can find it at the Market Force Analysis Internet site here:

https://marketforceanalysis.com/article/latest_article_011511.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Join GATA here:

Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference
Wednesday-Thursday, January 19-20, 2011

http://theyukonroom.com/yukon-eblast-static.html

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Sunday-Monday, January 23-24, 2011

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2011/15

Cheviot Asset Management Sound Money Conference
Guildhall, London
Thursday, January 27, 2011

http://www.gata.org/files/CheviotSoundMoneyConferenceInvite.pdf

Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit
Renaissance Glendale Hotel and Spa
Friday-Saturday, February 18-19, 2011
Glendale, Arizona

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/phoenix-investment-confere...

Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy Drills 71.17 Metres of 0.52% NiEq
(0.310 % Nickel 0.466 g/t PGMs +Au and 0.223% Copper)
from surface at Wellgreen Project in the Yukon

Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V: PCY) reports that it has received additional assays results from its 100-percent-owned Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu property in the Yukon, Canada. Diamond drill holes WS10-179 to WS10-182 were drilled during the summer of 2010 by Northern Platinum (which merged with Prophecy on September 23, 2010). WS10-183 was drilled by Prophecy in October 2010. Highlights from the newly received assays include 71.17 metres from surface of 0.52 percent NiEq (0.310 percent nickel, 0.466 g/t PGMs + Au, and 0.233 percent copper) and ended in mineralization. For more drill highlights, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov29.php



Precious Metals - Week of 1.16.11

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 01:45 AM PST

Is JPM Covering Up a Naked Silver Short Held By China As a Claim Against the Yanks? Jesse's Café Américain (15 Jan 11) Lead 100 Ounce Silver Bars About.Ag (2010)


Chris breaks down muni collapse

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 12:08 AM PST

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