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Sunday, January 16, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


GoldSeek.com Radio: Michael Ruppert, Dr. Greg Myers - Caza Gold Corp., The International Forecaster, and your host Chris Waltzek

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 04:00 PM PST

1st Hour: Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host Chris Waltzek & Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster discussion and answer listener's questions. 2nd Hour: Michael Ruppert CEO Dr. Greg Myers, Caza Gold Corp.


The coming flood of Yuan and Chinese Gold Demand

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 01:00 PM PST

While China is taking a greater portion of our financial attention on a daily basis, it seems to us that the sheer size of China and its continued growth has not been factored into the world economic perspective, even now. One of the consequences of profit driven capitalism in the past was the relocation of manufacturing from high-cost, developed countries to the lower cost country of China.


International Forecaster January 2011 (#5) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 05:00 AM PST

Between now and the end of the year, most likely in the fall, we'll see major financial and economic problems in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Belgium, Spain and Italy. Those events will sorely test Germany, France, Holland and Austria.


Silver Going Mainstream in 2011

Posted: 16 Jan 2011 04:00 AM PST

Never mind the correction in the price of silver, says Silver Strategies Editor Sean Rakhimov; better things are ahead. "It may be volatile; it may be steep; but it should be short-lived," he says, adding that he expects silver to rise well above its 2010 high at some point in 2011. Some of that price support could come from governments entering the silver market. Find out all the reasons for this in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report.


Inflation and the Damage Done

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 07:02 PM PST

The Mogambo Stupidity Prize (MSP) is a not-so-rare honor bestowed to highlight the laughable kind of stupidity about inflation that is so prevalent these days that I find myself screaming at the radio, the newspaper and the TV, wildly ranting, arms akimbo like some kind of demented old man, about how inflation is the Worst Thing That Can Happen (WTTCH), working myself into a fit of uncontrolled anger that goes beyond "outrage" and into some dark, dangerous place...


I’m Sick And Can’t Think Of A Mildly Clever Title This Week...Sorry!

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 06:00 PM PST

Gold slid 0.67% for the week even while calls from high atop the media mountain were screaming down loudly on the large dollar figure corrections. You don't hear them yelling like that when a $14 stock is down $0.30. That's really all that happened with Gold. Don't let the pundits scare you, put it in perspective and look at it in percentage terms and also ignore most intraday moves.


Is JPM Covering Up a Naked Silver Short Held By China As a Claim Against the Yanks?

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 05:14 PM PST

I freely admit that I have no inside knowledge of what is happening behind the scenes in the metals markets. But I do have a sense that things just do not seem to make sense, and the facts do not appear to fit the situation without some stretching. And this is one of those cases where my curiosity gets piqued. And so this seemed to be of interest to me as it might be to you.


Gold Hits Lowest Close in Two Months

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 05:07 PM PST

Gold has hit its lowest closing level (but not yet its intra-day level) in almost two months.  The intermediate term momentum indicator is at its lowest level since early August.  The price action seems to be developing a weaker and weaker strength, not usually a good sign.


Two of 2011's Surest Bets

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 03:54 PM PST

By Porter Stansberry Saturday, January 15, 2011 When I talk about "The End of America," I don't mean the end of our political union (although I won't rule that out). I'm talking about the end of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. So how will it unfold? That's what people keep asking me. My answer is: The collapse of the global fiat money system is already underway. Gold has gone up for 10 straight years. Gold is the counterbalance to fiat (paper) money. For 10 years in a row, investors around the world have been favoring gold. This trend is going to continue, and it will not stop until serious actions are taken to put a floor under the value of the world's major paper currencies: the euro, dollar, and yen. And that can't happen because the governments backing these three currencies are all bankrupt. The euro will die first. Just look at the numbers… Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, and Italy have all made the same mistake. They responded t...


“Irrational Exuberance” Revisited: What was Doctor Greenspan Thinking?

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 03:35 PM PST

Mark J Lundeen [EMAIL="Mlundeen2@Comcast.net"]Mlundeen2@Comcast.net[/EMAIL] 14 January 2011 Again, Friday's action in the gold and silver markets calls me to make some comments on the current "bear market" in gold and silver before I go on to my weekly topic. Here is the price of gold plotted in my Bear's Eye View (BEV) format. The BEV plot registers every new all-time high in the series as a Zero percentage value, and all other data-points are recorded as a negative value from the last all-time high. The Bear's Eye View allows the direct comparison of bear markets, and corrections within bull markets over an extended period of time. In the BEV plot of gold above, we see that gold has been hitting new all-time highs since early last May. And ever since last May the deepest correction gold has seen was 7.70% on 28 July. Over the next 5 weeks through early September 2010, gold was once again making a series of new all-time highs. As of the close of to...


JPMorgan Gets Its Wish

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 03:23 PM PST

"GLD declines another185,429 ounces. The U.S. Mint sells another 19,500 ounces of gold eagles. The Bullion Vault has no silver to sell for a second week in a row. Silver analyst Ted Butler talks about the 'new' position limits in silver...and much more. " Yesterday in Gold and Silver The gold price was up a couple of bucks by 2:00 p.m. Hong Kong time in their Friday afternoon trading session before rolling over and heading south, in a pattern very similar to what happened on Wednesday and Thursday during that time of day. But this time there was no price recovery worthy of the name in New York. The high [$1,369.70 spot] during Comex trading was at the London p.m. gold fix at 10:00 a.m. Eastern...before the price dropped a percent...with the New York low [$1,354.30 spot] coming shortly before 11:30 a.m. From that low, the price recovered a bit going into the close at 4:15 p.m. Volume was almost as heavy as it was on Thursday. But, as I had predicted, t...


Julius Baer Whistleblower To Expose 2,000 High Net Worth Tax Evaders To The World

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 03:09 PM PST


Two years ago when the US bailed out UBS and Switzerland from a brief but potentially terminal liquidity crisis, it succeeded in extracting a historic pound of flesh: it forced UBS to declassify thousands of bank accounts of US tax evaders which was the first nail in the centuries-old concept of Swiss bank secrecy. Today, Rudolf Elmer, a former COO of one of the biggest Swiss banks, Julius Baer, may have just nailed the last, and with that set off a chain reaction that will force a huge outcry against pervasive global tax fraud (but likely achieve nothing ultimatel). According to the Guardian, tomorrow Elmer will hand over details of 2,000 "high net worth individuals and corporations" to WikiLeaks which will make him "the most important and boldest whistleblower in Swiss banking history." And since among those exposed will be "approximately 40 politicians" expect all hell to break loose as photos of Assange having a underage orgy with Al Qaeda members are suddenly made public to diffuse what is bound to be another huge (if brief - after all human kind cannot bear very much reality).

From the Guardian:

British and American individuals and companies are among the offshore clients whose details will be contained on CDs presented to WikiLeaks at the Frontline Club in London. Those involved include, Elmer tells the Observer, "approximately 40 politicians".

Elmer, who after his press conference will return to Switzerland from exile in Mauritius to face trial, is a former chief operating officer in the Cayman Islands and employee of the powerful Julius Baer bank, which accuses him of stealing the information.

He is also – at a time when the activities of banks are a matter of public concern – one of a small band of employees and executives seeking to blow the whistle on what they see as unprofessional, immoral and even potentially criminal activity by powerful international financial institutions.

This is interesting: after all it was Zero Hedge that about 18 months ago suggested that all financial professionals should be very concerned: after all, all it takes is one sloppy firing, or one departure without the appropriate non-disparagement and non-truth telling clause, and all hell could break loose as those who were part of the inner sanctum suddenly find themselves on the outside... and wanting revenge. Elmer is just first of many. In the meantime, we hope that every single hedge fund, starting with that particular one in Stamford and going all the way down, has made plans regarding termination of its employees. All it takes is one person who believes they may have been wrongfully terminated to approach the SEC themselves, or, even worse, some blog or alleged terrorist organization with a penchant for disclosing the truth...

More on what will soon be the biggest case of exposed international tax fraud:

Elmer says he is releasing the information "in order to educate society". The list includes "high net worth individuals", multinational conglomerates and financial institutions – hedge funds". They are said to be "using secrecy as a screen to hide behind in order to avoid paying tax". They come from the US, Britain, Germany, Austria and Asia – "from all over".

Clients include "business people, politicians, people who have made their living in the arts and multinational conglomerates – from both sides of the Atlantic". Elmer says: "Well-known pillars of society will hold investment portfolios and may include houses, trading companies, artwork, yachts, jewellery, horses, and so on."

"What I am objecting to is not one particular bank, but a system of structures," he told the Observer. "I have worked for major banks other than Julius Baer, and the one thing on which I am absolutely clear is that the banks know, and the big boys know, that money is being secreted away for tax-evasion purposes, and other things such as money-laundering – although these cases involve tax evasion."

Below is Elmer's more verbose explanation of why the game of mutual assured secrecy works...until it doesn't.

"Once you become part of senior management," he says, "and gain international experience, as I did, then you are part of the inner circle – and things become much clearer. You are part of the plot. You know what the real products and service are, and why they are so expensive. It should be no surprise that the main product is secrecy … Crimes are committed and lies spread in order to protect this secrecy."

What is interesting is that Elmer has penetrated not only onshore Swiss accounts, but offshore ones, anmely those located in the Caymans, which as everyone knows is the primary base of operations for tax evading "offshore" hedge fund LPs:

That first crop of documents was scrutinised by the Guardian newspaper in 2009, which found "details of numerous trusts in which wealthy people have placed capital. This allows them lawfully to avoid paying tax on profits, because legally it belongs to the trust … The trust itself pays no tax, as a Cayman resident", although "the trustees can distribute money to the trust's beneficiaries".

Now, Blum says, "Elmer is being tried for violating Swiss banking secrecy law even though the data is from the Cayman Islands. This is bold extraterritorial nonsense. Swiss secrecy law should apply to Swiss banks in Switzerland, not a Swiss subsidiary in the Cayman Islands."

Yet just like with cablegate, the end result of all this imminent disclosure will be merely the confirmation of what everyone has already long suspected: that nobody rich pays taxes, and all US, and world, politicians are massively corrupt. And therefore, no criminal charges will be filed against anyone. Expect of course Assange, who will soon be branded a threat to US national security.

Unfortunately, US society, having lost all forms of checks and balances. has gotten to a point where no incremental information will do anything to even dent the ponzi lie. After all, the simplest observations is that Madoff is in jail for life, while sacrifices are made on Ben Bernanke's altar each and every day. And they say gold is a religion...


Gold and SPX: Both Faked It

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 01:19 PM PST

Would like to finish on that note of FED and related policies and point out that according to FED we should all be feeling better with the market being higher and not falling of the cliff due to his heroic efforts. Should not somebody know that ... Read More...



Trader Dan Comments On This Week?s COT Report

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 12:52 PM PST

View the original post at jsmineset.com... January 15, 2011 05:14 PM Dear Friends, The weekly Commitment of Traders Report released yesterday (Friday) has a detail that I believe merits bringing to your attention. Managed Money, which is basically the hedge funds, is now down to the lowest level of net long positions held since July 2009. They are now down nearly 86,000 net longs from the point at which gold made its recent record high. It should be noted that the COT report only covers through the Tuesday of the current week and therefore does not catch any developments in the markets that occur Wednesday through the close of trading on Friday. On Tuesday, gold closed at $1384. By Friday it has dropped over $30 from that level as additional fund long liquidation was underway. The point is that the net long position of these hedge funds has undoubtedly dropped to an even lower level. In spite of the relatively low level of fund long side exposure, gold is sitting a mere $70 off its...


Trader Dan Comments On This Week's COT Report

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 12:14 PM PST

Dear Friends,

The weekly Commitment of Traders Report released yesterday (Friday) has a detail that I believe merits bringing to your attention.

Managed Money, which is basically the hedge funds, is now down to the lowest level of net long positions held since July 2009. They are now down nearly 86,000 net longs from the point at which gold made its recent record high. It should be noted that the COT report only covers through the Tuesday of the current week and therefore does not catch any developments in the markets that occur Wednesday through the close of trading on Friday. On Tuesday, gold closed at $1384. By Friday it has dropped over $30 from that level as additional fund long liquidation was underway. The point is that the net long position of these hedge funds has undoubtedly dropped to an even lower level.

In spite of the relatively low level of fund long side exposure, gold is sitting a mere $70 off its all time high. That bodes well for gold moving forward as any "froth" that might have been in the gold market from the hedge fund community has been to a great extent wrung out.

The general public, the small specs, who generally tend to buy at tops and sell at bottoms, is still relatively high on long side exposure but I suspect a larger number of them have been flushed out in Friday's steep drop. They do not generally have pockets deep enough to sustain drops of large magnitude and are most often the recipients of "courtesy calls" from the margin clerks.

The other reportables, which includes the CTA's and large local and private traders are a bit extended to the long side yet so we will have to see whether or not the shorts can try to further flush this camp. They have generally been averaging a net long side exposure of near 40,000 contracts. As of Tuesday they were near 57,000 which was also probably further reduced in the subsequent price action of Thursday and Friday. We might need to see this camp bleed down a bit more before feeling confident enough that the liquidation from their quarter has been exhausted.

All in all, while the COT report is not bullish, it certainly cannot be considered bearish and might even be called a tad friendly particularly based on the now greatly reduced long side exposure of managed money accounts, which are the real drivers of today's commodity markets. When this camp begins to return to the gold market in size is when we will see the next leg higher commence.

By the way, the last time that the Managed Money was at this level of net long side exposure, the price of gold was trading at $922.

Click chart to enlarge in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini

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WHY YOU NEED GOLD AND SILVER

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 07:46 AM PST


Precious Metals Correction Presents Buying Opportunity

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 07:24 AM PST

Ananthan Thangavel submits:

After registering an average 67.4% return on client accounts in 2010, we would like to reflect and re-evaluate our views regarding precious metals, and silver in particular, in light of the pullback to begin 2011. After ending 2010 at 30.94, silver prices have pulled back 8.5% in just 2 weeks, ending today's trading at 28.32. While this correction has been sudden and severe, we continue to be bullish on the white metal as a long-term holding.Staggering Margin Requirements

In spite of its recent correction, silver is maintaining its elevated prices even in the face of much higher margin requirements than any other metal. Because of the recent run-up in silver, the CME has raised margin requirements on silver futures. This occurred as recently as November 9, causing a huge rally that day in silver futures to turn to a large loss. The margin increase leaves silver futures as the least leveraged metal futures contract. Despite having a margin requirement that is 65% higher than gold, silver vastly outperformed gold last year.

Silver's ascent in the face of rising margin requirements as compared to all other precious metals indicates the huge investor and industrial demand for the metal, as well as its currents scarcity.


Complete Story »


On The Fed's "Stunning" Finding Of Gold As An Inflation Predictor And The Subsequent Cover Up [Laughter]

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 05:39 AM PST


The WSJ has an adorable article titled "The Fed's Laugh Track" in which it has done a word search for "laughter" and come up with some amusing results. Of course it would be far funnier if the WSJ had an article disclosing all the conversation transcripts between Jon Hilsenrath and the various Fed's presidents and executives. We won't hold our breath on that on. We would, however, like to present one of tha laugh tracks that the WSJ conveniently decided to drop. Not surprisingly, the topic of that particular transcript disclosure is, well, gold.

To wit, from the September 22, 2005 meeting transcript:

CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. Several years ago I recall that we ran a correlation with the gold price against levels of inflation. We actually came out with some forecasting capability. Has that been rerun in recent years?

MS. [Karen] JOHNSON [(PhD. MIT, 1973)]. Not by us.

MR. STOCKTON: Not by me. I think we did that at your request. [Laughter] And we were not so convinced by the evidence that we’ve maintained that particular series for forecasting.

MR. REINHART. I think you actually alternated your requests—asking each one of us in turn—and we haven’t updated that in a long time.

CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. The problem is that it kept coming out, for reasons I can’t understand, with some information capability. The reason I raise it, as you know, is that we have a big, fat spike here, and I don’t know what to make of it.

MS. JOHNSON. Yes, a 17-year high. I volunteer to run the gold price. [Laughter]

CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. Provided that you don’t tell anybody you’re doing it!

MS. JOHNSON. Right.

This is indeed funny, because if the current Fed Chairman had only deferred to his predecessor, currently advising John Paulson to buy up every ounce of gold available, and to this transcript, he would figure out that the 30% surge in the price of gold in 2010 predicted precisely why there was a surging food price-based revolution in Tunisia yesterday and why the CPI confirmed the biggest jump in inflation in 18 months, and why food prices and corporate margins are about to prolapse. He also would not be at all confused when he told Congress back in June that he doesn't "fully understand movements in the gold price."

That said, we are confident the Federal Reserve will shortly come out with a statement that the first POMO/money-printing, pardon, monetary base-printing, driven revolution in Africa would have been much worse in the absence of QE2, and that Tunisia was really revolting against the possibility of deflation many years down the line.

As for Ms. Karen Johnson's kind suggestion to "run the gold price" we can assure her that she will not have to. After all CFTC just made sure that JPM will be able to continue to do that indefinitely [Laughter].

h/t Paul


$2 Billion Enough To Bust Comex Silver Dealers In Mar 2011

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 05:24 AM PST

Are certain big private investors and huge funds managers thinking the same? By the actions in silver paper and physical market since September 2010, I’d say definitely. Since Sep 8th 2010 (leased 2.3 million ounces), Comex customers started leasing huge amounts of physical silver to Comex dealers and paper speculators started smelling blood by increasingly [...]


Happy 14 Trillion Dollars!

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 03:49 AM PST

From Yahoo!/Associated Press:
US debt passes $14 trillion, Congress weighs caps
WASHINGTON – The United States just passed a dubious milestone:Government debt surged to an all-time high, more than $14 trillion. 
That means Congress soon will have to lift the legal debt limit to give the nearly maxed-out government an even higher credit limit or dramatically cut spending to stay within the current cap. Either way, a fight is ahead on Capitol Hill, inflamed by the passions of tea partyactivists and deficit hawks. 
Today's debt level represents a $45,300 tab for each and everyone in the country.

Keep in mind, this is just Federal Debt, it does not include private debt, corporate debt, financial sector debt, or even state and local municipal debt and pension obligation.  But what is more worrying to me than the number 14 Trillion, which in itself means nothing without context, is this:

The national debt is the accumulation of years of deficit spending going back to the days of George Washington. The debt usually advances in times of war and retreats in peace. 
Remarkably, nearly half of today's national debt was run up in just the past six years. It soared from $7.6 trillion in January 2005 as President George W. Bush began his second term to $10.6 trillion the day Obama was inaugurated and to $14.02 trillion now. The period has seen two major wars and the deepest economic downturn since the 1930s. 
With a $1.7 trillion deficit in budget year 2010 alone, and the government on track to spend $1.3 trillion more this year than it takes in, annual budget deficits are adding roughly $4 billion a day to the national debt. Put another way, the government is borrowing 41 cents for every dollar it spends.
SOURCE


Can you imagine?  Nearly half of today's national debt was run up in just the past six years!  The US Economy, as measured in GDP has not grown at that same accelerated rate - no where near it.

Now those that are aware of MMT understand that the US Government is not revenue constrained.  However, the US economy, and the US currency, the Dollar, exist in  an interdependent world.  There is this thing called the market that arguably is bigger than the Federal Reserve, and it gets to vote every day on the value of the dollar.  Trading partners too, get to "calibrate" the value of their currency using various means such as trade regulations and capital controls, against the US Dollar.

So what will the market and trading partners eventually do in the face of this growing, yet perversely necessary debt?  Will they put up with this "free lunch" of massive deficit spending by the US?  How will they react to a devaluing dollar?  Those question are hard to answer.  We live in a very complex world, and there are so many moving parts, it is difficult to forecast how this debt will affect the world economy, or the US dollar.

But if we look at the past few years, we see a trend.  We see a growing currency war evident in the implementation of capital controls by many countries, central bank interest rate manipulations, trade restrictions, and a breakdown in agreements during G20 conferences.

Eventually, the cognitive dissonance that exists between business as usual and basic math will disappear.  More and more people will understand that when the economy's growth is vastly outpaced by the debt growth required to keep that economy sluggishly growing, that an endgame is unavoidable.  The math no longer makes sense, and the farce that constitutes our paper debt based fiat monetary system becomes understood by all.



HERE WE GO AGAIN

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 03:35 AM PST

Humans, for whatever reason, tend to project the past into the future. It is an emotional flaw in our genetic makeup. It is also the reason why so many otherwise intelligent people miss the big turning points in the economy and stock market.

A classic example occurred in the summer of `07. The sub-prime market was just starting to implode. With the benefit of hindsight we now know that was the beginning of the end for not only the stock market but the global economy. 


Unfortunately because we couldn't read the writing on the wall we trusted that the Fed would "fix" this minor blip but cutting rates aggressively and spewing out an avalanche of freshly counterfeited dollar bills. It did not fix the credit markets and instead spiked the price of oil to $147 a barrel. That turned out to be the final straw that broke the camels back and sent the global economy spiraling down into the worst recession since the Great Depression. The stock market rolled over into the second worst bear market in history.


Amazingly enough we are ready to repeat this process all over again. The writing is on the wall and virtually no one can see it.  


I'm now going to lay out the the series of events that will ultimately lead to the next leg down in the secular bear market and the reaction by the Federal reserve that will end up pushing the economy over the edge into the next depression.


It is going to start in the municipal and state bond markets. I should say it's already started.


So far the stock market is ignoring the cancer growing in the city and state bond markets... just like it ignored the initial stages of the sub-prime implosion in the autumn of `07. 

At some point it is going to dawn on the market that there may be a serious problem developing. I expect that recognition to come as the market starts to drop down into the next intermediate cycle correction (which I expect to begin next week). If so, then what should start out as just a profit taking correction will turn into a much more serious decline, possibly even erasing all of the fall rally.

We've already seen big warning signs that smart money has been exiting this market for a couple of months now, basically since the first signs of stress in the muni markets appeared in November. Big money has used the QE driven rally to unload stock on the clueless public over the last several months.

It will begin as the first cities and states start to default. That will correspond with massive layoffs as cities and states will no longer be able to borrow to meet payrolls. Their only option will be to make drastic cuts any and everywhere they can.

The Fed will panic and start running the printing presses in overdrive just like they did in `08 and just like in `08 that will spike the price of energy and food (it's already starting. Gasoline is back above $3.00 a gallon and a loaf of bread is pushing $4.50-$5.00).

Spiking inflation in a very high unemployment environment will understandably destroy the fragile economy just like it did in `08. (I have no idea why Bernanke thinks rising prices along with 20% unemployment is a good thing.)

This will be the period when gold will enter the final leg up in its ongoing C-wave advance and the dollar will collapse down into the 3 year cycle low unleashing the currency crisis we've been expecting. 


I fully expect by fall the economy will be heading back into recession/depression and the global stock markets will have rolled over into the next leg down in the secular bear market that began in 2000 with the bursting of the tech bubble.

For the rest of January I am going to run a special trial $10 subscription rate for new subscribers only. The subscription will run for the duration of January and then convert to the regular rate of $25 a month unless you cancel before the trial period expires. To take advantage of the $10 offer click on the link below.



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Guest Post: Fed's Sense Of Humor, Amazing Foresight, And Inflation Risk

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 02:15 AM PST


Submitted by Bo Peng

Fed's Sense of Humor, Amazing Foresight, and Inflation Risk

If you still have any doubts of Fed's bias towards sustaining bubbles and being late on fighting inflation, the latest release of 2005 Fed meeting minutes should help you see it more clearly.

There's some good humor and cynicism there, which certainly deserves respect. It's also obvious that many Fed officials and economists, including Greenspan and Geithner, had by 2005 at the latest realized the bubble in housing and the systemic risks posed by big banks (and Lehman and Bear Stearns in particular). Impressive foresight.

But the good news stops there. Were the bubble and risks just a goddamned joke to them? They saw it quite well, made some smartass jokes and had some good laughs, and did NOTHING.

When Bernanke said it takes 15 minutes to raise rates, he was being too modest. The final tally to vote on the decision, I'm sure, takes at most one minute. But this is an insult to the questioner and the audience, isn't it? The real question is how long it would take from rising inflation to them seeing it, then making the decision to act on it, then to inflation being tamed. Instead of providing an honest assessment, Bernanke instead pulled a Clinton what-is-is on us.

I'll be waiting anxiously in 2013 to see the release of 2008 meetings, but even more so on their 2011 meetings. I expect them to see very clearly, with their impressive intellect and good sense of humor, the evidence of inflation in everything except housing, growing bubbles in commodities and stocks, economic polarization both domestically and globally, etc etc, and make some smartass jokes about it, have some good hearty harhars, and do NOTHING.

There's so much money in the system it's scary. Non-real, hot money looking for real return. Everybody knowing anything about the market knows this. The Fed of course knows this well. Every bubble-bust cycle creates some winners and losers, but one sure loser is the vast majority of middle class who have little chance of benefiting meaningfully in the bubble phase and are inevitably hurt in the bust phase. Every bubble-bust cycle knocks a portion of the middle class a few steps down the economic ladder while minting some super-rich. The Fed of course knows this well. I'm sure there's a smartass joke there somewhere. They'll laugh about it, and do NOTHING.

I don't know when or how the bubble will go bust. But here's my plan:

1. In the short term, I try to resist the urge to short stocks. Lots of money still need to get into position, e.g., the hot money that got pushed out from emerging markets.
2. Some day somebody will finish positioning and call somebody at WSJ/CNBC/Bloomberg, and the world will be horrified to find out there's a crisis all of a sudden. I'll be balls deep in that trade.
3. I'll accumulate some gold (e.g. GLD) and agricultural commodities (e.g. DBA) from pullbacks. These may not necessarily do well during the bust phase, depending on the nature of the excuses and the scope. But they will do well in the inevitable inflation flare-up.

No matter how confident Bernanke is about his ability to fight inflation in time, I'm exactly as confident that he'll be too late. In fact, inflation is already here...nah, just kidding. Harhar. Hehe. Yawn. Good night.

 

 


Guest Post: Pimp My Conspiracy Theory

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 02:14 AM PST


Submitted by JM

Pimp My Conspiracy Theory

Evidence suggests that there never was a ruling class in England.

How can one know?  Well, every society has a sort of “Who’s who” list, created for tax purposes or to establish ownership transfer rights (through birth and death) over time, or to signal that a family had arrived on the scene.  Such lists are preserved going all the way to the 11th century in England.  There is wild volatility in the names that appear on them.  Within a few generations, these lists pretty much reset with a whole new set of names. 

Further, tracking the fortunes of surnames over time also shows that the richest Brits throughout the centuries overwhelmingly descended from poor or immigrant families, not the elites of just three generations prior.  The ruling class concept is a fiction statistically speaking:  persons with incomes in England’s top 10th wealth percentile seldom trace their origins to some ruling class of England. 

Conversely, surnames show that most persons with incomes in the bottom 10th percentile did not trace their origins to extremely poor families three generations before, much less the landless serfs of a medieval manor.  The poorest families don’t stay that way forever.  This seems to say that only a small part of wealth is an inheritance; the rest is hard work and fate.  It is difficult to determine whether effort or luck dominates.  Being wrong in all the right ways or providence, however you choose to look at it, luck plays its role in every life. 

Sure, there was and always will be genetic and inheritance dis/advantages. But elite society was and is not closed to new entrants.  Certainly the underclass isn’t either.  Of course there are exceptions:  but the story is clear:  this is just how it is.  But there are also mechanisms that reinforce social mobility beyond blind luck. 

Economic success (measured as wealth) has three components:

  • Genetically transmitted talent which always involves regression to the mean.  The genius blond is attracted to the dumb redhead.  Happy ever after in the marketplace.  One of their twins running in the yard is bright, but the other rather dull.
  • Parents expend effort to make a better life for their kids, precisely so that their income (among other things) doesn’t revert to the mean.  The educated can ensure that their children have just as much, or more, experiential opportunities that they have.  This is a persistence factor, but the data says it fades in time.
  • There is chance.  Chance makes kings of slaves and slaves of kings. 

Can there be an underclass?  Sure, but its permanence lasts only as far as transfer payments create perverse incentives to not work.  I suppose that this creates effects that work in the other direction too:  the richest stay that way, because they make others sated enough to stay underneath them.  This hints at a type of social immobility fostered by democratic, freedom-loving global culture. 

There is something more fundamental than low taxes and gold standards and minimum wages and healthcare for all of few.  What makes societies work is the eradication of all privilege and entitlement from the top to the bottom.  Social mobility makes possible the rise of talent at the expense of the incompetent.  Suppressing it ensures the crash of the dead society run by rubes.

A Conspiracy Theory You Can Believe In

About the time that the Federal Reserve was created, H.G. Wells proposed a conspiracy theory.   It wasn’t a cabal of small and secretive group of people. His goal was to drive the progress of mankind:  the Open Conspiracy.  Anyone could join, in the words of Nancy Zimmerman, if they:

  • Endorse the aim of the Open Conspiracy—the betterment of the human race.
  • Strive to understand the world, to determine the institutions and practices that work and those that don't—what things contribute to human progress, and what things did not.
  • Communicate what they learn to others.
  • Listen to what others have to say independent of who they are:  “no one has a monopoly on truth or on insight, and good judgments can only be arrived at by close and open-minded scrutiny of evidence and opinions.”

The point of this Open Conspiracy is to understand and maybe domesticate risk; to turn the future into something we don’t fear.  The very attempt is itself the stuff that contests all the change and adversity that feed fear and insecurity. 

Even in an unpredictable, always morphing universe there is value in problem solving.  And one can find the human instinct for problem solving in virtually all institutions, even the dreaded credit default swap.

Open conspiracies are nothing new.  Truly international research communities exist for virtually all scientific fields.  Useful ideas are taken wherever they are found:  Teichmuller may have been a Nazi, but the spaces that bear his name are accepted without reservation.  It’s not about control:  no one knows the future with certainty and one must just go along for the ride.  Call it domesticating risk, problem solving, whatever.  The point is overcoming challenges.

We are good at it.  The history of ideas shows this.  But overcoming is a slow process of incremental clarification punctuated by revolutions.  Here’s an example with the main points are italicized bullets so one doesn’t have to churn through the whole thing if it is painful.

The History of an Idea: A Three Century+ Quest

In 1607 Petrus Roth in Arithmetica Philosophica asserted that “a polynomial equation of degree n (with real coefficients) may have n solutions.”  Gauss took Roth’s assertion in 1815 and generalized it in the following way:  “A polynomial of degree n has n complex roots.” Then he more or less proved it.  This statement is the fundamental theorem of algebra (FTA).  A few years later, Niels Abel proved that polynomials of order five or higher have no general method of solution.  A result:

  • It may take longer than a lifetime just to find out that sought-for answers are there, but then those answers cannot always be found.

Even if one has not all the answers, it is immensely valuable to expand the class of problems that can be answered.  Intensive effort can then be invested in those special cases where a solution can be found.  This approach resulted in a mental shift away from determining the existence of roots into investigating the computation of solutions:  “Given a monic polynomial with integer coefficients, there is a valid way to compute with its roots.”  Note the restatement of the formal theorem to make work on a special case easier (equations with integer coefficients).  This is an important human strategy for ascending intellectual mountaintops:

  • If one can’t get to the top of a mountain, climb nearby peaks. 

It was nearly 300 years before a constructive proof of the FTA was given by Herman Weyl (some say it was Hellmuth Kneser).  It took 300 years, but this slow-fast dynamic in human problem-solving is the way.

Progress or Regress is Unclear

“I promised Hermite I would not bring up again the circumstance that made me so angry last year. … I have newly worked out a great deal of the material, and beyond this I have put the foundations of algebra in an entirely new form.”
                --Leopold Kronecker, correspondence to Mittag-Leffler, 1886

Kronecker was a big-time adventurer in ideas, and was by many accounts a stubborn little jerk.  But his persistence reshaped algebra in an original way.  His idea remained focusing on the system of root computation and not on the roots per se.  But the machinery he developed for this system is given substance by his constructive version of the FTA: 

“Given a monic polynomial f(x) with coefficients in the ring Z[c1, c2, … , cn], a monic irreducible polynomial construction g(y) with coefficients in the same ring such that adjunction of one root of g to the field of rational functions in c1, c2, … , cn gives a field over which f(x) factors into linear factors.” 

In one sense, this formulation trail-blazes terrain that even today has far-reaching implications.  Kronecker’s ideas led him to recommend limiting the scope of mathematical inquiry to a subject of the concrete: only numbers that are either reducible to products of arithmetic operations on integers.  Numbers that do not resolve into a finite combination of these operations are approximate values that evolve.  The limit is an approximation method built as infinite sequences of approximations, and infinite things are always in a state of becoming, not of being.  Kronecker’s extreme view calls into question the concept of the limit, frankly one of the most useful mathematical constructions ever devised.  Ideas sometimes serve the purpose of regression and not progression. 

  • It is sometimes unclear whether revolutionary “progress” is a leap forward or a jump off of a cliff.  The future is driven by the balance between choosing a break with established ways and making small incremental advance with well-worn tools that stand the test of time.

The Problems Never End

Kronecker’s “different” foundation for algebra was in a sense nothing especially new.  Folks followed a path of this sort this path in Ur thousands of years ago by developing a number system of base 60 (as opposed to our base 10).  It reduced the incidences of irrational numbers in their arithmetic, but it was inadequate to do so from the beginning.  Increasing societal complexity necessarily incorporated irrational numbers. 

However, times are different now.  Fembots handle computational complexity in ways that the brain can’t.  Mankind mitigated his computational limitations by creating algebraic irrationals and limiting arguments of all stripes, on and on.  Given a master programmer and machine adequate to the problems posed, robots have less need for such mitigation. 

  • Ideas can come back into favor because the times are favorable.  The future is driven by the balance of choosing a break with established ways against making small incremental advance with well-worn tools that stand the test of time.

This is just one example among hundreds, thousands even.  Even if all the creations of man are just termite mounds on a grander, more imaginary scale, the failure of these creations is nothing but an opening of interesting problems to solve.  Failure is an integral part of a universe that makes most look in turn like fools and then heroes.  Given the epic fails of today, an Open Conspiracy has never been needed more.


Only monetization will resolve world's debt, Davies tells King World News

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 01:58 AM PST

9:55a ET Saturday, January 15, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed this week by King World News, Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies ponders the problem of calculating value in a collapsing fiat currency system. Davies figures that no amount of austerity can get worldwide debt under control and so the only response of government to debt will be ever-increasing monetization and inflation. This year, Davies says, will be gold's year, thanks largely to Chinese demand. The interview is 17 minutes long and you can listen to it at King World News here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/1/15_Ben_D...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan power plants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php


Join GATA here:

Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference
Wednesday-Thursday, January 19-20, 2011

http://theyukonroom.com/yukon-eblast-static.html

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Sunday-Monday, January 23-24, 2011

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2011/15

Cheviot Asset Management Sound Money Conference
Guildhall, London
Thursday, January 27, 2011

http://www.gata.org/files/CheviotSoundMoneyConferenceInvite.pdf

Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit
Renaissance Glendale Hotel and Spa
Friday-Saturday, February 18-19, 2011
Glendale, Arizona

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/phoenix-investment-confere...

Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf


Murray Pollitt: Gold will lead, not lag commodities in 2011

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 01:32 AM PST

9:26a ET Saturday, January 14, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In his first client letter of the new year Murray Pollitt of Toronto's Pollitt & Co. analyzes 2010 and offers predictions for 2011. Among them, Pollitt expects gold to start leading rather than lagging commodities. The letter is headlined "Hyperbolic" and Pollitt has generously allowed GATA to share it with you here:

http://www.gata.org/files/MurrayPollitt-01-06-2011.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Join GATA here:

Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference
Wednesday-Thursday, January 19-20, 2011

http://theyukonroom.com/yukon-eblast-static.html

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Sunday-Monday, January 23-24, 2011

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2011/15

Cheviot Asset Management Sound Money Conference
Guildhall, London
Thursday, January 27, 2011

http://www.gata.org/files/CheviotSoundMoneyConferenceInvite.pdf

Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit
Renaissance Glendale Hotel and Spa
Friday-Saturday, February 18-19, 2011
Glendale, Arizona

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/phoenix-investment-confere...

Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Prophecy Drills 71.17 Metres of 0.52% NiEq
(0.310 % Nickel 0.466 g/t PGMs +Au and 0.223% Copper)
from surface at Wellgreen Project in the Yukon

Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V: PCY) reports that it has received additional assays results from its 100-percent-owned Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu property in the Yukon, Canada. Diamond drill holes WS10-179 to WS10-182 were drilled during the summer of 2010 by Northern Platinum (which merged with Prophecy on September 23, 2010). WS10-183 was drilled by Prophecy in October 2010. Highlights from the newly received assays include 71.17 metres from surface of 0.52 percent NiEq (0.310 percent nickel, 0.466 g/t PGMs + Au, and 0.233 percent copper) and ended in mineralization. For more drill highlights, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov29.php


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Haynes and Norcini review gold's and silver's week at King World News

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 01:17 AM PST

9:14a ET Saturday, January 15, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Bill Haynes of CMI Gold & Silver and Dan Norcini of JSMineSet.com provide the weekly precious metals market review in a 23-minute audio interview at King World News here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/1/15_KWN_W...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan power plants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php


Join GATA here:

Yukon Mining Investment e-Conference
Wednesday-Thursday, January 19-20, 2011

http://theyukonroom.com/yukon-eblast-static.html

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Sunday-Monday, January 23-24, 2011

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/vancouver-resource-investment-conference-2011/15

Cheviot Asset Management Sound Money Conference
Guildhall, London
Thursday, January 27, 2011

http://www.gata.org/files/CheviotSoundMoneyConferenceInvite.pdf

Phoenix Investment Conference and Silver Summit
Renaissance Glendale Hotel and Spa
Friday-Saturday, February 18-19, 2011
Glendale, Arizona

http://cambridgehouse3.com/conference-details/phoenix-investment-confere...

Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf


Trippy music; Crash JP Morgan Buy Silver , week 2(part2) – 2011 update

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 12:59 AM PST


Two of 2011's Surest Bets

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 12:57 AM PST

Porter Stansberry writes: When I talk about "The End of America," I don't mean the end of our political union (although I won't rule that out). I'm talking about the end of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. So how will it unfold? That's what people keep asking me.


Be Wary of Rosy Economic Outlooks for 2011 … and Profit Along the Way!

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 12:53 AM PST

Last year Byron Wien, the former Morgan Stanley strategist, former billion-dollar hedge fund strategist, current Vice-Chairman of Blackstone and highly touted market prognosticator predicted 2010 would be a V-shaped recovery for the U.S. economy. He was wrong …


US Pressure Triggers Collapse of Lebanese Government

Posted: 15 Jan 2011 12:37 AM PST

Bill Van Auken writes: Lebanon’s misnamed “national unity” government fell Wednesday after the political bloc led by Hezbollah withdrew over the failure to reach an agreement on policy toward a United Nations probe into the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri.


If a dot-com crash happens without any companies involved being publicly listed, will anyone hear it?

Posted: 14 Jan 2011 11:54 PM PST

Here's serial currency killer Lloyd Blankfein pandering to Groupon to get a private/public facebook type listing (and a few billion in fees) at his derivatives sweat shop Goldman Sachs. I see a whole multi-trilion dollar bubble and crash with these stocks before they ever make it to a public listing. Does it matter? Since Goldman [...]


Stocks rise as outflows resume, Gold investors are surprised by the decline.

Posted: 14 Jan 2011 11:00 PM PST

New Year Unemployment Claims Surge. (ZeroHedge) Thursday's initial claims number throws cold water to all those who expected the trend in claims to be improving. At 445K, this was a huge miss to expectations of 410K, and a major deterioration from last week's (upwardly revised of course) 410K (was 409K before). Elsewhere, continuing claims came at 3,879K on expectations of 4,088K (with the previous naturally revised higher as well from 4,103K to 4,127K). And the kicker: in NSA terms initial claims were a mammoth 770,413, a 191,686 increase in just one week, and the highest NSA number in one year!


Understanding the Proper Use of Gold and Silver

Posted: 14 Jan 2011 10:34 PM PST

For a couple of years now, many investors have been bombarded with claims of hyperinflation and a Zimbabwe-like fate for the U.S. dollar. These gold bugs would have you believe that gold has value as a form of currency. They have made these claims hoping that everyone will line up to buy gold, so as to raise the price. The swarm of gold bugs has reached out to cover every crevice of the media, from television and radio networks to print media and the Internet. And their efforts have been quite effective. Today, gold ATMs are being rolled out across the U.S. to take advantage of the hype generated by this misguided and deceptive movement of gold pumpers.


Are Gold Pool Accounts Safe?

Posted: 14 Jan 2011 06:19 PM PST

One of the cheapest ways to buy and store physical gold and silver is with unallocated (or pool) storage. With unallocated storage, a dealer holds metal that is owned by its customers, but without identifying any particular piece of metal belonging to any particular customer.

The advantages of this method are considerable: you avoid the risks inherent in storing the metal yourself (transport loss, fire, and theft); you can buy or sell just a few ounces of gold and silver at a time; you escape the big bid-ask spreads associated with coins and small bars; and perhaps best of all, storage is usually free.


Complete Story »


Silver Going Mainstream in 2011 - Sean Rakhimov

Posted: 14 Jan 2011 04:56 PM PST

The Gold Report submits:

Never mind the correction in the price of silver, says Silver Strategies Editor Sean Rakhimov; better things are ahead. "It may be volatile; it may be steep; but it should be short-lived," he says, adding that he expects silver to rise well above its 2010 high at some point in 2011. Some of that price support could come from governments entering the silver market. Find out all the reasons for this and read about some of Sean's favorite silver plays in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report.

The Gold Report: Sean, it seems that among commodities, silver is getting the biggest headlines. The price of silver hit a 30-year high in late December. Silver was up 83% in 2010. And a high-profile lawsuit was launched by a significant silver investor against JP Morgan (JPM) for allegedly manipulating the silver market. It seems that silver has, for the time being, wrested the spotlight away from gold. What sort of things do you expect for silver in 2011?

Sean Rakhimov: Well, the short answer is that I expect silver to continue its run. In previous interviews with The Gold Report, I discussed how small and volatile the silver market is, and how explosive the moves can be. We're in the middle of one of those explosive moves now. A year ago, silver was going nowhere, having spent quite a bit of time in the $14–$16 range. A lot of people were questioning if it was for real, especially with gold reaching new all-time highs while silver languished. Speaking of these 30-year highs, these are all nominal numbers versus inflation-adjusted numbers. That should be kept in mind. You have to keep it in perspective.


Complete Story »


Inflation Scorecard: Higher Interest Rates Forecast

Posted: 14 Jan 2011 10:35 AM PST

Hard Assets Investor submits:

By Brad Zigler

Gold turned back to rally modestly against the world's reserve currencies this week. At least most of them. Bullion weakened only in sterling terms for the week ending Thursday, slipping 0.4 percent. The Swiss franc gave up 2.2 percent to gold, while the euro declined 2.0 percent. The yen lost 1.2 percent to bullion.


Complete Story »


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