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Monday, November 22, 2010

Gold World News Flash

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Gold World News Flash


Questioning the Role of the ECB and the IMF

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 06:49 PM PST

I have covered this topic in the past in my post: PIMCO's El Erian does not believe EU bailout of periphery is a success, and what Michael Hudson has been saying all along. Now we find another country that needs to be bailed out - or, let's be honest about it: another situation that the global banking system needs to be bailed out.

How many more such situations need to transpire before the global banking system engulfs the world in an economic or financial collapse? But I'm torn here. I understand and appreciate the issue of contagion, and why doing nothing or restructuring debts can be just as destructive. Ultimately, we find ourselves at the end of a monetary system, and the transition to the next one appears to be so chaotic, so wealth destructive, that the best we can do is to put it off. Morality on bankers aside, this is my greatest fear: the day of reckoning.

That said, I found this article in the Irish Times, which I believe is fitting for the situation. I believe we will increasingly see more questioning of central banking in the future - around the world. The people are slowly awakening to the fact that they are indeed debt slaves - regardless of how much debt they owe. You know why? The debt holders are constantly being bailed out, and the losses are being indiscriminately spread thru-out society. You will feel this pain when you pay taxes, when you buy expensive groceries due to inflation, and when you see your government services such as pensions, police and firefighters, education, being cut.

But first I want to re-quote US President Andrew Jackson here - I think his diatribe against the bankers in the early 1800s is spot on and applicable to what is going on today:
"The bold effort the present (central) bank had made to control the government ... are but premonitions of the fate that await the American people should they be deluded into a perpetuation of this institution or the establishment of another like it."
"Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out, and by the grace of the Eternal God, will rout you out."
Some things never change.

And now for the essay from the Irish Times:

The ECB may not be the friend it seems

JOHN McMANUS
Mon, Nov 22, 2010
BUSINESS OPINION: Suggestions that bailout may in fact be to protect European interests may not be too wide of mark.
WHEN THE history of Ireland's banking and fiscal collapse comes to be written, the role of the European Central Bank may well turn out to be the most controversial.
The question will be whether they really were some sort of honest broker who in the end forced us to confront our predicament or were they in fact the villain of the piece?
Both narratives have some resonance but the former is very much in the ascendant. The weary relief that characterises most people's response to the arrival of the ECB, the European Commission and the International Monetary to negotiate a loan for Ireland is consistent with the view that time has finally been called by impartial outsiders on our botched effort to sort out the mess we have made of the Irish banks and our finances.
The main elements of the story are that the banks' problems are so deep that they exceed the fiscal capacity of the State. We cannot borrow enough money from the bond markets to sort them out and also fund the exchequer deficit, so we have no choice but to turn to the European Financial Stability Facility and the IMF.
While the later point is unfortunately true, the role of the ECB in how we came to this sorry pass is worthy of some scrutiny. A more critical analysis might conclude that its policies over the last two years added greatly to our problems and ultimately its own. And it is the ECB's problems as much as ours that brought things to a head last week.
One of the main differences between how the two-year-old crisis has played out in Europe and America has been the refusal of the ECB to allow any significant bank fail.
It is worth noting in this regard that Jean Claude Trichet rang Brian Lenihan over that fateful weekend in September 2008 to impress on him the importance of not letting any Irish bank fail. The obvious inference was that the ECB would play its part.
Trichet was, of course, pushing at an open door given the other factors at play in Ireland: profound regulatory failure combined with the inability of the administration or the banks to comprehend the scope of the problem.
But the fact remains that the Government could not have gone down the road it did without the support of the ECB. Frankfurt has provided the liquidity needed to make the National Asset Management Agency function and was committed to a similar facility for the winding up of Anglo.
Above all it has provided liquidity to the Irish system to such an extent that Irish banks account for something like one in every four euro it makes available through its emergency measures. We kept our end of the bargain. No Irish bank has failed although two are to be closed, but crucially their secured creditors are to be paid.
The reason the ECB did this was because it also misjudged the Irish banking crisis. Its calculation that stability in the euro system was best served by letting the Irish banks limp on with massive liquidity support was incorrect.
Instead a situation arose whereby the problems in the Irish banks were not dealt with as they should have been – through letting them fail or some sort of debt for equity swap – and the ECB found its own balance sheet contaminated by the amount of support it had to extend to Ireland as a consequence. Meanwhile, the Irish exchequer is left with a bill it cannot afford.
Now, in order to extract itself from this mess, the ECB has in effect withdrawn its support and said that the Irish taxpayer must now borrow even more money and try – for a third time – to fix the knackered banks so the ECB can get its money back.
The alternative to the Irish taxpayer stumping up – letting the badly broken AIB and Anglo Irish banks fail or default on their bonds – remains resolutely off the agenda at the insistence of the ECB. The reason being the same as it was in September 2008: the Irish banks are systemic in the European context . The big losers if either bank failed are the German, French and other European banks and institution that funded their insane lending sprees. And while these institutions and the euro system are probably strong enough now – as against two years ago – to absorb the loss, the fear remains that an Irish bank failure would trigger some sort of secondary European banking crisis.
Many are of the view that this crisis is in fact inevitable due to the level of debt in the system across Europe and the ECB – and the other European institutions should really focus their energies on getting ready to deal with it in the immediate future.
But, for the time being, the consensus seems to be that it makes more sense to try and put the fire out in Ireland by pushing the burden on to the Irish tax payer and its exhausted administration.
The Government may appear more mendacious and delusional by the day, but when they say this is a European problem they actually do have a point and history could well prove them right.



In case you missed it, Alex Jones on “Keiser Report” – Silver to $500 and why the TSA sucks

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 04:00 PM PST

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Crude Oil Rallies as Ireland Gives In, Gold Recovers but Lacks Conviction

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 03:41 PM PST

courtesy of DailyFX.com November 21, 2010 07:51 PM Volume will be light in this holiday-shortened week, but news flow remains swift after Ireland once again made headlines by requesting aid from the EU and IMF. Commodities – Energy Crude Oil Rallies as Ireland Gives In Crude Oil (WTI) - $82.55 // $1.04 // 1.28% Commentary: Crude oil is kicking off the week to the upside after Ireland finally gave in to pressure to accept a bailout from the EU and IMF. Though this move was widely expected, financial markets are rallying as the risk of contagion is reduced. Overall, it looks like crude has had its correction and will advance from here. Last week’s dip to $80 may have been the bottom, with prices likely to consolidate around these levels before moving to retest the 25-month highs put in two weeks ago above $88. The risk for Monday is if traders decide to sell on this overnight spike higher, or in other words, ‘sell on the news.’ If that h...


Yo! Asia – MUST VIEW – 17,000 people – so far – in Europe have committed to a bank run on December 7th. The obvious question, what to do with that money?

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 03:00 PM PST

MK: Silverbuzzsuccess is spot on – he makes the connection between the Cantona bank run and the twin campaign to buy Silver. Silverbuzz makes the point that if you mix tens of thousands of people pulling their money out of the banks – who will then be looking for a place to put that money [...]


Graham Summers’ Weekly Market Forecast (Risk Back On? Edition)

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 02:52 PM PST

Graham Summers' Weekly Market Forecast (Risk Back On? Edition)

Last week's rally occurred for one reason and one reason only: options expiration week. I've detailed this phenomenon countless times, but the primary point is that EVERY month, Wall Street shreds options traders by pushing the market this way and that to insure the maximum number of options contracts expire worthless.

As the below chart shows, last week was no exception with both the puts and calls taking it on the chin in succession. In particular, Wall Street gunned for 1,200 on the S&P 500.

gpc 11-22-1

Again, none of this action was related to anything fundamental or economic in the world: it was option contract shredding by Wall Street and that's that. Of course, the ramp job occurring on the 18th coincided with the US Dollar dropping when it hit up against the upper trend-line of its recent downward trading channel:

gpc 11-22-2

This rejection was in turn precipitated by the Euro bouncing at the lower trend-line (135) of its own upward trading channel (the Euro accounts for over 50% of the US Dollar index and consequently the two currencies trade in near perfect inverse correlation).

gpc 11-22-3

In many ways, this move was to be expected. The Euro had fallen pretty far pretty fast. The main issue now is whether the currency can rally to break above resistance  at 137.5. This line acted as strong former support multiple times in the last few months, so it should now act as strong resistance.

In this context, we could see a tad bit more upside in stocks as the Euro rallies to challenge 137.5 (which would coincide with the US Dollar falling to test 78). However, at that point the risk-off trade should return with a vengeance with the US Dollar rallying strongly and the Euro falling (along with equities and commodities).

If this DOESN'T happen, then the US Dollar has serious trouble as a violation of 76 would break its multi-year trend-line.

gpc 11-22-4

This would trigger a serious potential "flight from the Dollar" pattern in the form of a massive Head and Shoulders that has been forming in the US Dollar over the last 20 years.

gpc 11-8-5

In closing, keep your eyes glued to the Euro. The markets seem to view the Irish bailout as a "positive" for the currency. If this view results in the European currency breaking above 37.5, then the inflation trade is back on with a vengeance and the US Dollar could potentially be in SERIOUS trouble.

Indeed, I published a Special Report on QE2 to subscribers of my paid newsletter Private Wealth Advisory last week. In it I explained in stark detail what the financial markets will do as a result of QE 2 in the coming months.

I also alerted subscribers to three trades that will profit from the Fed's ongoing stupidity. We've already closed out one of them at an 11% profit in just five days. The other two remain "in play" and are primed for serious returns in the coming weeks.

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SILVER: THE UNDERVALUED ASSET LOOKING FOR A CATALYST

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 02:18 PM PST

I believe that silver has far more upside potential. From a value perspective, silver has many attractive attributes that are hard to overlook. There are eight, which taken together, add up to explosive upside potential regardless of what happens to the financial environment. They are listed below.


Jim Sinclair - This is Late 1979, Gold Will Rise Violently

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 01:41 PM PST

With gold heading higher today, King World News interviewed legendary trader Jim Sinclair. When asked about the action in gold Sinclair stated, "We have to be right in front of a major move in gold. Today the gold market had all of the indications of what would be considered by the old-time traders (Bert Seligman & Jesse Livermore) as a major turn. This would be a sign to them that the bulls are gaining strength in the market, and given any excuse it will rise violently."


[Audio] King World News Interview: James Turk

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 01:39 PM PST

James has written "The Freemarket Gold & Money Report," an investment newsletter since 1987. James has specialized in international banking, finance and investments since 1969. His business career began at The Chase Manhattan Bank (now JP Morgan Chase Bank). He subsequently joined the investment and trading company of a prominent precious metals trader based in Greenwich, Connecticut then moved to the United Arab Emirates to be appointed Manager of the Commodity Department of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, until resigning in 1987.


In The News Today

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 01:06 PM PST

clip_image001

 

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

The definition of a vigilante is an amoral destroyer who would cause social damage without any concern whatsoever. If there are devils on earth it is the vigilante raider.

Today the destroyers are rewarded while the builders must be prepared to enter combat.

Western finance is a world of disgraceful devils.

Irish Bailout May Unleash Vigilantes on Portugal: Euro Credit
November 19, 2010, 8:36 AM EST
By Matthew Brown

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) — A resolution of the Irish debt crisis may shift the burden of speculation to Portugal.

While officials such as European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio predict a bailout of Ireland will reduce financial pressures in the euro region, analysts from Citigroup Inc. and Nomura International Plc say any relief would be short-lived as investors turn their focus to the next-weakest peripheral nation.

The markets indicate that country is Portugal with 10-year bond yields of 6.88 percent, compared with 8.26 percent in Ireland and 11.62 percent in Greece, which received rescue funds in May from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said Nov. 15 that while "there is a risk of contagion," that doesn't mean the country will seek financial aid.

"Portugal isn't in the situation that it is now because of Ireland," said Steven Mansell, director of interest-rate strategy at Citigroup Global Markets Ltd. in London. "If Ireland reaches an agreement to tap the European Financial Stability Facility or some other mechanism to support its banking sector, I don't think that will alleviate the pressure on Portugal."

The government has forecast that economic growth in Portugal will slow to 0.2 percent in 2011 from an estimated 1.3 percent this year. Portugal has made less progress at taming its deficit than some of the other peripheral nations. In the first nine months, the central government's deficit rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier. That compared with a decline of more than 40 percent in Spain and more than 30 percent in Greece.

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

It is hard for any union, be that the union of US States of the European Union to survive the power of the demonic destroyers. The only way the EU can buy time is to go with QE and do a total rescue of all the weak states before Monday. That will lead to hyperinflation there.

As I have told you for years now, there is no practical solution anymore. The OTC derivative market and layers of debt have insured that.

The article posted this weekend by Martin Armstrong speaks articulately to the debt problem. Please review it.

Gold will trade at $1650 and beyond.

The horrible truth starts to dawn on Europe's leaders
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The entire European Project is now at risk of disintegration, with strategic and economic consequences that are very hard to predict.

In a speech this morning, EU President Herman Van Rompuy (poet, and writer of Japanese and Latin verse) warned that if Europe's leaders mishandle the current crisis and allow the eurozone to break up, they will destroy the European Union itself.

"We're in a survival crisis. We all have to work together in order to survive with the euro zone, because if we don't survive with the euro zone we will not survive with the European Union," he said.

Well, well. This theme is all too familiar to readers of The Daily Telegraph, but it comes as something of a shock to hear such a confession after all these years from Europe's president.

He is admitting that the gamble of launching a premature and dysfunctional currency without a central treasury, or debt union, or economic government, to back it up – and before the economies, legal systems, wage bargaining practices, productivity growth, and interest rate sensitivity, of North and South Europe had come anywhere near sustainable convergence – may now backfire horribly.

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

This is such a waste of time and effort unless the talks are about a shock and awe rescue of all weak states.

We will have to go through this dark comic of the various steps of how the banksters rape nations with other EU states, one after other.

EU Ministers Said to Plan Meeting Tonight as Irish Talks Ongoing
By Joe Brennan – Nov 21, 2010 5:10 AM MT

European finance ministers are planning a conference call this evening as Ireland edges closer to applying for an international bailout, said a European Union official with direct knowledge of the meeting.

Ireland may make a statement as early as this afternoon as talks with the EU and the International Monetary Fund progress, two separate EU officials said. Prime Minister Brian Cowen is chairing a cabinet meeting in Dublin today to discuss the country's four-year budget outlook and international officials are working through the weekend to finish an aid deal for the country's banks and avoid a fresh setback in financial markets.

The aid talks began three days ago after a meeting of EU finance ministers urged Ireland to agree to a package within days. The plan, which will focus on a banking industry reeling from the 2008 property crash, may total as much as 100 billion euros ($136 billion), according to Barclays Capital.

Allied Irish Banks Plc, Ireland's second-biggest bank, emphasized the fragility of the financial system Nov. 19, reporting a 17 percent decline in deposits this year. IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said Europe is moving "too slowly" to resolve the sovereign debt crisis that began in Greece.

Investors dumped Irish bonds this month on concern about the nation's ability to keep its financial system afloat. The premium that investors demand to hold Irish 10-year bonds over the benchmark German bonds rose 3 basis points Nov. 19 to 544 basis points. The spread, a measure of the risk of investing in Irish debt, declined from a record 646 basis points on Nov. 11 as investors anticipated a rescue.

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

The following quote was sent in by CIGA Dr. Bob:

"The Irish fought for centuries to secure their partial independence (they caved into the Brits in 1920 and sacrificed Northern Ireland), and have given it all back now to the EU for an illusory few years of EU credit-induced false prosperity. The Devil has called in his due."

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

QE to infinity is certain for Euroland.

Greek Jobless Rate Hit Record High in August
By DAVID JOLLY
Published: November 11, 2010

Greece's jobless rate rose to a record 12.2 percent in August, while the nation's progress in reducing its deficit appeared to slow, government data showed Thursday.

The figures underlined the difficulty of restoring the public finances at a time of economic decline. The government was scheduled to report third-quarter gross domestic product on Friday, and economists surveyed by Reuters predicted a contraction of as much as 5 percent from a year earlier

More…


Jim's Mailbox

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 01:00 PM PST

Gold and Silver are Immediate Stand Up and Take Notice Markets
CIGA Eric

Richard Wyckoff described the three phases of a professional trade as follows:
(1) Accumulation/Distribution
(2) Mark Up/Mark Down
(3) Distribution/Accumulation

Connected players began aggressively shorting the Euro in the middle of October. This was the quiet, professional distribution at the expense of "The Chumps". This distribution was followed by the nonstop media blitz over Ireland's debt crisis in November. This began the mark down phase. Connected players have begun to slowly cover their shorts into weakness at the expense of the spec and retail money (see charts below). The third and final phase of the trade will be completed with the announcement of an Irish bailout.

Connected Money

Euro and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:
clip_image001

Specs and Retail Money "The Chumps"

Euro and the Nonreportable Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weigthed Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:
clip_image002

Meanwhile, the flipside of this drama reveals impeccable timing of money flows in U.S. dollar as well.

The temporary weakness in the Euro, also 'anticipated' by accumulation of long positions in the U.S. dollar market, has allowed connected money to profit and reposition on the short side into strength. When money flows transition from down to up, it will mark the resumption of the dollar's slide.

U.S. Dollar Index and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:
clip_image003

The stand up and take notice markets are gold and silver. Connect money as covering their short positions into strength since August. As I have written before, covering into strength is a huge departure of control in the gold and silver. The weakness in gold and silver has not changed the flow of money. Connected money continues to cover their short positions into both strength and now weakness.

Gold London P.M Fixed and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:
clip_image004

Silver London P.M Fixed and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest"
clip_image005

The only other time we saw such motivated covering (buying) by connected players was 2005-2006. Coincidentally, well likely not a coincidence, it was during this period that Buffett announced that he had sold his silver hoard and silver ETF, better know as the physical demand vacuum, was first listed. What will they do for an encore in 2010-2011? Gold and silver are immediate stand up and take notice markets. History, or retrospect analysis, will clearly mark the time in which "it all changed." Unusual changes in money flows almost always foreshadow these inflections.

With that said, let me posting one of the most important charts within my arsenal of analysis. The presistant cluster of gold diffusion index above the 40 percentile suggests that connected money wants out of the U.S. dollar. The growing hostility of finger pointing within the currency wars has not gone unnoticed by connected money. Expect the price of gold to rise and accelerated as an increasing percentage of these outflows find their way to gold.

Gold London P.M. Fixed and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Gold Diffusion Index (DI):
clip_image006

More…


Gold Price Suppression – Peter Schiff Radio – Adrian Douglas Interview – 11/19/10

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 12:00 PM PST


CME Pushing Traders From Paper To Physical Silver

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 11:28 AM PST

I for once, am saying all along that trading paper silver and gold derivatives is not for most of the people and you’ll be more than fine with buying and holding physical silver and gold bullion coins and bars. This was proven right this month when CME in period of 1 week (on Nov 9th [...]


The Road to Perdition

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 11:23 AM PST

THE ABLE SPECULATOR --- A SERCH FOR VALUE --- [EMAIL="analyst@theablespeculator.com"]analyst@theablespeculator.com[/EMAIL] SPECIAL REPORT November 21, 2010 "Pure truth, like pure gold, has been found unfit for circulation because men have discovered that it is far more convenient to adulterate the truth than to refine themselves." - Charles Caleb Colton There is so much going on out there that it's difficult to pick a starting point. China, Ireland, quantitative easing and even Greece pop in and out of the news like a cork bobbing around on rough seas. One day everybody is selling everything due to deflationary fears and the very next day they are buying everything because of the threat of inflation. Then the next day deflation back on the tip of everybody's tongue… The press is neurotically trying to attribute every minor fluctuation in share price to something that just happened somewhere, and it is annoying...


Cycle Charts Suggest Major Lows Coming for Stock Markets – and Gold!

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 11:11 AM PST

Cycle Charts for the Dow, Gold, and Oil Most Revealing! Larry Edelson’s proprietary cycle analyses suggests that we could experience declines in the Dow 30 and S&P 500 to 9,000 and 1,000, respectively, by April of 2011; a potential decline in the price of gold to as low as $1126 by August of 2011 and a decline in the price of crude oil to as low as $69 next year - before taking off to record highs. So concludes Larry Edelson (Uncommon Wisdom Daily ? Extraordinary Insights For Growing Your Wealth) in his article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com, has reformatted into edited [...] excerpts below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. (Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article reposting to avoid copyright infringement.) Edelson goes on to say: My cycle charts - my market roadmaps - for the Dow, gold and oil are based on actual signals from my computer models… [the result of] 32 years of researc...


Alasdair Macleod: Why gold is better than cash

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 10:25 AM PST

6:20p ET Sunday, November 21, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod today poses and answers the question: When will gold owners sell?

The answer, Macleod says, is: When paper and electronic currency stops losing its value. But, he suggests, it will be a long time before the investment industry understands the debasement of government currencies and before that debasement is halted.

Macleod's commentary is titled "Why Gold Is Better than Cash" and you can find it at his Internet site, Finance and Economics, here:

http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2010.11.22%20gold%...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan powerplants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php



Silver vigilantes just opened a can of Whup-Ass

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 10:13 AM PST


Why gold is better than cash

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 09:28 AM PST

The online version is here

Why gold is better than cash

The question most often asked of gold bulls is, “At what price will you take your profits?” It is a question that betrays a lack of understanding about why anyone should own gold. Nevertheless, the simple answer must be, “When paper money stops losing its value”. This response should alert anyone who asks this question to the idea that owning fiat cash is the speculative position, not ownership of precious metals.

This sums up the problem. Instead of gold, people commonly think of paper money as the only medium of exchange and as a store of value; cash is after all their unit of account. They see the gold price rising when they should be seeing the value of paper money falling.  Because cash is everyone’s unit of account it is wrongly seen as the ultimate risk-free asset. This is also the fund manager’s approach to investment: his investment returns are calculated in paper money, so he cannot account for a superior class of asset.  He is also taught to spread investment risk across a range of inferior asset classes to enhance returns. Therefore the investment manager wrongly assumes that precious metals is one of those inferior asset classes. All modern investment management works on these assumptions.

This helps explains why managed portfolios today have very little exposure to precious metals, but there are other reasons. Investment funds in total have grown rapidly since the 1970s on the back of money and credit creation.  This monetary expansion has fuelled both new funds for investment as well as asset prices generally, while gold and related investments became unfashionable in gold’s twenty year bear market between 1980 and 2000. The combination of these two factors reduced precious metals exposure in managed portfolios to very low levels.  Gold was therefore ignored as an asset class when modern portfolio theory evolved in the 1990s, and is simply not considered by the current generation of fund managers.

Consequently, investment funds of all types invest in bond markets, stock markets, property assets, securitisations, foreign currencies and to a minor extent general commodities.  From time to time they may have had temporary and speculative exposure to precious metals, but very few fund managers actually understand that gold is the ultimate hedge against cash losing its value.  After all, if you account in paper money, paper money has to be the risk-free position. The understanding that cash is not risk free is left to private individuals not misinformed by modern portfolio practice.

The world-wide accumulation of hoarded wealth in the form of gold and silver ingots, coins and jewellery has been growing at an accelerating rate over the last thirty years. This has compromised the central banks who were actively suppressing the price: the result is that large amounts of gold and silver have passed from governments to private individuals. None of this can be properly captured in the statistics, partly because the central banks involved refuse to provide accurate information about their sales, swaps and leases, and partly because the individuals that hoard precious metals do so secretly, and are therefore beyond the scope of meaningful statistics.

The reason these individuals hoard precious metals is the basic hypothesis of this article: they will dishoard gold when paper money stops losing its value.  We should therefore consider the extent and speed of this loss.  In 1973 there were US$1,120 of demand deposits plus cash currency for every ounce of gold owned by the US government[i]. Today, including excess reserves held at the Fed and the $600bn to be printed over the next seven months, the figure stands at $26,512[ii]. In 1973 there were twelve times as many dollars as there was gold at the market price, compared with nearly 20 times today, so paper dollars are more overvalued in gold terms today than at the time when the gold price was only $100.

The quantity of paper money will continue to grow as the world wrestles with its problems.  As every day passes, one’s worst fears of yesterday materialise.  Governments, driven by social pressures rather than dispassionate economics, are forced into ever-increasing financial rescues; but by far the biggest problem facing them is the seeming inevitability of a full-scale banking collapse.

That is what has the panjandrums of Euroland in a panic over Ireland. We are told by the Bank for International Settlements that total Irish debt to foreign investors stands at $791bn, the substantial majority of which is owed by the banking sector. Ireland on its own might not derail European banks, but the domino effect of the spreading problem most probably will.

This obviously cannot be allowed to happen. Forget the rights and wrongs of “too big to fail”: politicians and therefore central banks have no option but to intervene.  But what can they do? They cannot fund a rescue with taxes, and they are already borrowing as much as the bond markets can stand.  There is only the nuclear option left, however it is dressed up: shore up the system by printing as much money as it takes. Printing money is simply the way governments buy time.

This analysis may turn out to be unfortunately right, or hopefully wrong; but it is more right today than it was last month and also progressively so for the months before that. The rising interest in precious metals is entirely consistent with the growing likelihood that the printing of fiat currencies will continue to accelerate in order to buy off default. While the translation of monetary inflation into price inflation is rarely an even result, we know from both economics and the experience of history that the two are linked as cause and effect respectively. So we can conclude that paper money will continue to lose its value for the foreseeable future.

But accelerating price inflation does not just affect cash as an asset class. Bonds, which are commonly the largest component of a conventional portfolio, will loose value faster than cash. Equities will be lucky to keep up with cash values while bond yields rise and the adverse effects of accelerating inflation result in recession. Property will be hit by rising bond yields and rent increases that can only lag inflation. Only commodities, which are a minor asset class for portfolios, can be reasonably expected to outperform cash. Furthermore, equities and property are commonly used as collateral against the very high levels of borrowings in the private sector, which ties their prices to interest rates, and therefore to cash.  Furthermore history confirms that gold and silver are easily the best performers in times of rising inflation[iii].

So in the middle of today’s banking and economic crisis, those unfortunates who have delegated the management of their investments to professional fund managers have only bought for themselves the illusion of financial security.  They are almost entirely exposed to cash and assets that are dependant on cash itself, because they own negligible amounts of gold and related investments. This means that systemically, portfolios have become totally dependant on the stability of fiat currencies.

This makes gold and silver, not cash, the ultimate risk-free investment class. Paper money may be the medium of exchange and the unit of account, but in these increasingly uncertain times gold and silver are the safest stores of value and will continue to be hoarded, irrespective of price, for as long as these uncertain times continue.

So if anyone asks you when you might take your profits in gold and silver, smile sweetly and just say, “When paper money stops losing its value”.

 

21 November 2010


See table “Gold backing for 26 major currencies” (page 216 of “You can profit from a monetary crisis” by Harry Browne, published by Macmillan in 1974). Today’s instantly accessible cash is $6.934 trillion, comprised of deposits held in domestic offices less time deposits of $4.323 trillion, plus non-interest bearing deposits held in foreign offices at $71 bn, figures provided by the FDIC. To these are added currency in circulation of $974bn and excess reserves at the Fed of $966bn, figures obtained from the Fed, together with the QE2 figure of $600bn. Gold held by the Fed is listed at 8,133.5 tonnes. See the German experience 1918 to 1923.
 

Alasdair Macleod

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COT Flash November 21

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 08:56 AM PST

Both gold and silver seemed to be probing support this week in U.S. dollar terms. We believe they may have already defined near-term support, but of course the jury is still out on that notion. Gold tested as low as $1,330 on COT reporting Tuesday, and silver as low as $25.02 on the cash market the same day.


Empire of Fraud no. 5 (Disconnect and Dollar Revaluation)

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 06:49 AM PST

The dollar is what it can buy and nothing else. However, gold is money and nothing else. It is of paramount importance to the Federal Reserve to keep the physical price of gold under control so that the dollar may be viewed as legitimate money.


Frequently Asked Questions from Silver Buyers

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 06:40 AM PST

I like silver better because it's being consumed by industry. It's a much smaller market, by far, and thus, will move up far more than gold. If the silver to gold ratio returns to the historic value ratio of 15 oz. of silver for every 1 oz. of gold, you'd make far more on silver, since the current ratio is about 53:1. But I think silver might exceed the historic ratio, since that ratio was last seen nearly 100 years ago, except for briefly in 1980.


How HIGH Could Silver Go in December?

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 06:35 AM PST

There is no other way to describe silver's price movement of the past 13 weeks other than to call it parabolic. With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to do a little study of past silver parabolic moves and see if I could get a handle on just how high silver could travel into December before it implodes.


A Conservative Silver Forecast

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 06:28 AM PST

About a month ago, I wrote a two-part commentary looking at the long-term "price targets" for gold and silver, and how those numbers tended to lose meaning because in the hyperinflation scenarios envisioned for the future (where paper currencies go to zero) the value of any hard asset correspondingly moves to infinity.

The purpose of that piece was not so much to see how many "zeros" I could attach to gold and/or silver, but to remind people that since we can't "understand" hyperinflation that we were likely "under-preparing" for such a scenario. While we have very good reasons for looking at such the-sky-is-the-limit price-targets, as prudent investors it's also essential to engage in more conservative forecasting. It is only by looking at both upper and lower parameters that we can make optimal decisions as investors.

The purpose of this commentary is to provide that "lower parameter", to guide us in answering two questions: how aggressively should we be buying (in particular) silver over the short-term, and (over the longer term) how much silver can we/should we accumulate?

To answer those questions, I will attempt to provide readers with a realistic approximation of the rate of price-appreciation, rather than to simply assign some arbitrary, long-term number to the price of silver. In this respect, we must automatically look to the gold market. While silver has recently been "leading" gold higher, this is extremely atypical – due to the much larger size of the gold market. In any "conservative" long-term appraisal of the silver market, our base-assumption should be that gold will lead silver, not the other way around.

Looking at the gold market, we see that over the last two years (the first time in decades that the bankers gold-manipulation scheme has been obviously unraveling) that the price of gold has advanced by roughly 30% each year - assuming that the current rally takes gold to somewhere around the $1500/oz mark by year end.

More importantly, we have seen obvious indications that the price of gold is being steadily marched higher by the big-buyers who now control this market. Apart from the ever-shorter, ever more-trivial "ambushes" of these markets by the banking cartel, we are seeing a fairly stable progression.

Let's assume that this 30% per year appreciation-rate is deemed "optimal" by these big-buyers. We can make a fairly persuasive argument that this is the case. Allowing the gold market to progress at a slower rate would not only impair supply, but would also allow the smaller, retail buyers to afford to purchase a bigger piece of the 'gold pie'. Conversely, pushing the price up faster than 30% per year pushes-up their own price for purchasing gold to a painful level. So we will consider the 30% annual appreciation rate to represent the "Goldilocks" scenario for the gold market.

What does this imply for silver? The answer to that question depends totally on whether we want to make a "bullish" case for silver, or to answer more conservatively. Since I have already dedicated this analysis to "conservative" forecasting, this is the path I will currently pursue. Obviously, the most-conservative analysis of the price of silver (in relation to the price of gold) would be for the current price-ratio of 50:1 to persist.

I do not, for the moment, believe this ratio to be sustainable over the longer-term. But (for the sake of argument), I will use this 50:1 ratio as our baseline assumption, and wait until the end of this piece to argue against my own scenario.

If the price of gold continues advancing at roughly a 30% annual rate, this would also (roughly) translate into the price of gold increasing by an average of more than $500/ounce per year – even if we only extrapolate over only a five-year time horizon. A less-conservative appraisal would be that the price of gold will advance by at least $500 per year (and generally much more), but I'm happy for purposes of analysis to use the "round" and very conservative number of $500/year.

Using that level of price appreciation for gold, and keeping our conservative 50:1 price ratio, we come up with our "conservative forecast" for the price of silver: that we can expect the price to advance by at least $10/ounce per year. While those new to the sector, or with very pessimistic appraisals of the silver market may disagree that this number represents a conservative forecast, certainly most of the silver-bulls who have looked at this market closely may consider this price-progression to be extremely conservative.

Specifically, for the price of silver to be restrained to only an advance of $10 per year, we would have to make a number of pessimistic assumptions about the silver market:


Rhetorical Q&amp;A On The Future Of QE2 With Goldman's Jan Hatzius

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 05:48 AM PST


Goldman's Jan Hatzius, who after flipping his view on the economy in early August, and taking all of the street with him, has recently flopped back to a semi-optimistic outlook. What is amusing is that despite his suddenly far more bullish outlook, he, as well as the entire Goldman team, continue to call for $2 trillion in total QE2. Of course the two are completely at odds with each other, but hey - if it means 2011 will be another record bonus year, why leave something as irrelevant as logic stand in the way of that 3rd French Polynesian island. On the other hand, Hatzius is certainly not stupid, so in continuing with his rhetorical device of an hypothetical interrogation, today Hatzius releases his latest Q&A, this time focusing on the future of Quantitative Easing. What is most notable, is that as of today, the Dutch strategist sees the possibility for less QE2 post June, contrary to his recent missives which expected QE2 to continue until the full $2 trillion of expected monetary base "printing" was fulfilled. Then again, as Ireland has so aptly demonstrated today, at this point it is no longer a question of whether any economic policy is viable in the long-run. All that matters is for putting enough lipstick on the bankrupt global pig for another few months at a time, so that yet another sovereign constituency can foot the bills in what has become a rolling global bailout of country after country.

As for the Q&A - if at this point there is still anyone who is confused about what printing trillions of monetary base units means, then by all means read the attached.

Hatzius' summary:

  • Today’s focus article looks at the future of the Fed’s quantitative easing program (QE2)—or large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) in the Fed’s preferred terminology—after the recent backlash at home and abroad.
  • In our view, the anxiety about the inflationary consequences of QE2 is misplaced.  The reason is that the US economy and financial system is not well described by the simple “money multiplier” model, in which increased bank reserves automatically result in an inflationary lending boom.  In particular, deposits subject to reserve requirements are much less central to the financing of US banks than assumed in this model.
  • Instead, it is better to think of QE2 as a swap of cash for Treasuries on the asset side of the private sector balance sheet.  This swap should lower the bond term premium and thereby boost growth, at least to some degree, but it does not automatically lead to a large expansion in broader money and credit aggregates.  Even if it did, the first effect in an economy operating with as much slack as the US economy currently has would probably be to boost output rather than prices.
  • Our central estimate is that QE2 is likely to boost real GDP by about ½% per $1 trillion (trn).  While that is not a very large number, we believe that the benefits exceed the costs, at least so long as the political backlash does not restrict the Fed’s operational independence.
  • However, the backlash probably does increase the hurdle for additional purchases beyond the $600 billion (bn) planned through June.  Combined with the better data of recent weeks, it has increased the risk that Fed officials will ultimately stop short of our estimate of $2 trillion (trn) in cumulative QE2.

And the complete Q&A:

Where do we stand after all the criticism of the Fed’s decision and the renewed tightening in financial conditions?

Q: First of all, why do you keep calling it quantitative easing (QE2) when Ben Bernanke himself takes exception to the term?
A: Inertia, really.  We fully agree with Bernanke that the impact of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) occurs almost exclusively via the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet—in particular, through the effects of its purchases on asset prices—rather than through the liability side (i.e. the quantity of reserves), as discussed below.  But at this point it seems somewhat pointless to keep fighting this terminological battle.

Q: How does QE2 work???
A: The mechanics of QE2 are shown in Exhibit 1.  Fed officials will buy $600 billion (bn) of longer-term Treasury securities and create $600bn in additional bank reserves in exchange.  This increases the Fed’s balance sheet as well as the so-called monetary base (currency plus bank reserves) by $600bn.


 
Q: So are Fed officials “printing money”?
A: If “money” is defined as the monetary base, the answer is yes.  Each $1 in LSAPs will result in an additional $1 in bank reserves.  However, if “money” is defined as one of the broader money or credit aggregates—which matter much more for economic activity and inflation—the answer is not necessarily.  Unless banks decide to leverage the extra reserves by increasing lending, QE2 is simply a shift of assets held outside the Fed from longer-term Treasuries to cash and bank reserves.

Q: If that’s all it is, why the worry that QE2 will cause much higher inflation?
A: The concern is that the increase in bank reserves will cause a sharp increase in bank lending, which in turn will boost demand and ultimately prices to an excessive degree.  It is based on the traditional “money multiplier” theory, which holds that the availability of bank reserves is the key constraint on the amount of bank lending.  When the Fed adds reserves to the system, the story goes, banks scramble to make more loans until these “excess” reserves have been turned into required reserves that are needed to support the higher level of bank loans.  The supposed explosion in credit then leads to an unsustainable boom in demand and ultimately inflation.

However, we believe that the money multiplier model is a very poor guide in the US financial system.   It stands and falls with the assumption that deposits subject to reserve requirement are the only source of bank funding, when in fact more than 90% of bank funding comes from other sources (including many deposits on which reserves are not required).  Thus, bank lending was not constrained by the availability of reserves even prior to the increase in bank reserves.  Relieving a non-existent constraint cannot be expansionary, and it cannot be inflationary.  Hence, the standard story for how QE will result in inflation is incorrect, in our view.

Q: Are you saying that QE2 has no effect on lending, output, and inflation?  If so, why do it?
A: It does have an effect, but it works through a different channel.  The shift in the composition of the private sector’s asset holdings from longer-term Treasuries to cash should raise the price (lower the yield) of longer-term Treasuries.  A lower Treasury yield should feed into a reduced discount rate and therefore a higher price of risky assets, and it may also weaken the US dollar.  In turn, easier financial conditions—i.e. lower long-term interest rates, higher stock prices, and a weaker dollar—should boost economic activity.

Stronger economic activity will also deliver a (small) boost to inflation.  In addition, there is likely to be—in fact, there has already been—a positive effect on inflation expectations.  So we do think that there is a link between the Fed’s actions and future inflation.  It is just far less dramatic than in the typical “printing money” story, and much farther off in the future.

Q: If the effect is supposed to occur via lower long-term interest rates, why have Treasury yields in fact risen—and financial conditions tightened—since the QE2 announcement?
A: Probably mainly because the market has actually reduced its expectation of the cumulative amount of QE2.  While the cumulative purchase announcement of $600bn itself was modestly ahead of market expectations, the somewhat slower-than-expected pace of purchases, the backlash against the decision at home and abroad, and the better economic data of recent weeks have created a lot more doubt whether Fed officials will buy more assets beyond June 2011.

That said, Treasury yields are still somewhat lower—and more importantly financial conditions are still significantly easier—than they were before the expectation that Fed officials would buy anew.  As of Friday’s close, our Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (GSFCI) stood at 97.48, about 50bp easier than the level seen in August when the market began to shift to an expectation of QE2.

Q: How big is the boost to growth?
A: That’s a hard question to answer, but our best estimate is about ½ percentage point of additional GDP growth per $1trn in LSAPs.  Part of the reason why it is so uncertain is that the precise number depends on three separate estimates:

1. The sensitivity of the term premium to Fed purchases;

2. The sensitivity of financial conditions to the term premium; and

3. The sensitivity of GDP growth to financial conditions.

All of these variables are measured with considerable error, but our estimates are as follows:

1. A $1trn asset purchase lowers the term premium by around 30bp.

2. A 30bp drop in the term premium eases financial conditions as measured by our GSFCI by about 80bp.

3. An 80bp easing in the GSFCI normally raises real GDP growth by ¾ percentage point in the first year; however, given how clogged the housing channel is at present, we believe a more realistic figure may be ½ percentage point.

Q: Why do QE2 if its effect is so small?
A: For one thing, it’s not that small in absolute terms.  An extra ½% of GDP amounts to $75bn per year and perhaps corresponds to an extra 400,000 jobs.  That’s not a lot relative to nearly 15 million unemployed workers, but it’s a start.

Moreover, monetary policy decisions always boil down to a cost-benefit calculation at the margin.  The main perceived cost of QE2—or indeed any monetary easing decision—is a higher long-term risk of actual and expected inflation in excess of the Fed’s 2% target.   But while the risk of inflation does rise at least a bit with QE2, we need to set against this a reduced risk of deflation.  Since deflation is probably the greater risk at present, the perceived cost is, on net, actually likely to be an additional benefit.

Q: Are there any other potential costs?
A: The most obvious cost is the political risk, including the possibility that Congress will curtail the Fed’s independence and ability to deal with future crises.  That is not our expectation, but it is not impossible either.

Another concern is that lower long-term interest rates may increase commodity prices, which would weigh on growth for a net commodity importer such as the United States.  This could weaken—or in an extreme case even reverse—the positive impact of QE2 on growth.  It is again difficult to assess the magnitude of this effect.  However, we can glean some information from a 1999 Federal Reserve paper describing the impact of different shocks in the staff’s model of the US economy, FRB/US.  It suggests that a $10/barrel increase in oil prices lowers GDP growth over the next year by 0.2 percentage point.   If so, it would take roughly a $25/barrel increase—a much bigger move than the $5-$10 increase seen in the runup to QE2—to offset the GDP effects of QE2.

Finally, there is some risk to the Fed’s prestige if QE2 isn’t followed by a visible improvement in the economy and the labor market.   The best analogy is the stimulus package of early 2009.  Although we (and most other economists) believe this helped the economy in 2009-2010, the effect was not large enough to overcome the underlying weakness.  The package thus probably helped discredit activist fiscal policies in the eyes of many Americans.  The problem is that it is difficult to distinguish between the “baseline”—the path of economic growth and employment in the absence of the stimulus—and the impact of the stimulus itself.
The Fed is running some risk of a similar outcome with QE2.  If the recovery continues to disappoint, QE2 will undoubtedly be viewed as a failure, even if it in fact helped matters at the margin.  However, the difficulty of distinguishing between the “baseline” performance of the economy and the effects of QE2 cuts both ways.  If growth picks up, the Fed would likely receive part of the credit, even if the improvement occurs because the private-sector deleveraging process slows, or because of other non-monetary factors.

Q: So how close is the private sector to stronger, self-sustaining growth?
A:  It is very difficult to have a confident view of timing, even though the qualitative economics of the situation is quite clear.   Because the private sector is trying to pay down debt, its financial balance—i.e., the gap between its total income and total spending—has risen to a level that needs to be offset by larger government deficits than the public is willing to tolerate over anything but the very short term.  This means that the economy as a whole suffers from insufficient aggregate demand during the private-sector deleveraging episode; in effect, the different sectors of the economy, when taken together, are “trying” to spend less than they earn, which is a recipe for economic weakness.

Once the private deleveraging has progressed sufficiently, the private-sector balance will fall and this will result in a boost to aggregate demand growth.  At present, Exhibit 2 shows that the private sector balance currently stands at +7% of GDP, which is about 5 percentage points above the long-term average.  A full return to the long-term average would be the equivalent of an exceptionally powerful fiscal stimulus program, but even a partial return would be quite helpful.

The key condition for a drop in the private sector balance is a sufficient decline in the level of private-sector debt.  Unfortunately, however, nobody has come up with a good model of what constitutes a “sufficient” decline.  In the absence of such a model, we can perform simple “what if” calculations that assume a return of the debt/income ratio to a more or less arbitrary benchmark, or we can evaluate the experience of other countries that have gone through deleveraging cycles.  In general, this type of analysis suggests that the process still has a ways to go, i.e. that the private sector balance will stay high for another couple of years.   But given the lack of a clear benchmark for what constitutes an acceptable debt level as well as the significant differences between the deleveraging experiences across countries, it is quite a tentative conclusion.

Q: In the private sector deleveraging story you just told, there is not much room for monetary policy.  Isn’t that in itself a statement that QE2 is unlikely to have a big effect?
A: Yes, it is.  We believe that in a balance sheet recession, monetary policy is inherently less powerful than fiscal policy because the private sector’s attempt to reduce its leverage works at cross-purposes with lower interest rates.  That doesn’t mean that the effect is zero, because the pace of the deleveraging is likely to depend at least partly on interest rates and broader financial conditions.

In any case, however, it is better to think of QE2 as a type of “holding operation” that reduces the likelihood of deflation, which would make it yet more difficult for the private sector to reduce the real value of its nominal debt burden.  QE2 is unlikely to turn the economy around, even though it probably does help at the margin.

Q: You have argued that the Fed may end up buying as much as $2trn.  How confident are you in this estimate?
A: Frankly, not that confident.  This is partly due to the inherent uncertainty in the economic outlook.  Although we believe that the economy will still be fairly sluggish in coming quarters, the recent data have been a bit firmer than expected and faster growth is possible.  This is important because our calculations for how much QE is “warranted” are quite sensitive to the economic inputs, i.e. the inflation and unemployment forecast one year ahead.

In addition, the backlash against the Fed’s policy probably does raise the hurdle for substantial further purchases beyond June.  In our analysis of the potential cumulative volume of QE2, we assumed that the Fed views purchases of assets as significantly more “costly” than an equivalent amount of short-term interest rate cuts.  These costs include economic factors such as the tail risk of a significant increase in inflation expectations and/or the greater difficulty of exiting from the current highly accommodative policy stance.  But they also include political factors such as an increased risk that Congress will curtail the Fed’s independence in response to continued QE.  At the margin, this is likely to reduce the committee’s appetite for further QE beyond June.

Q: Is it possible that the committee will in fact decide to stop the purchases before they reach $600bn?
A: That is highly unlikely.  Although the committee promised to review the policy regularly, we believe that the hurdle for actually stopping the purchases is very high.  The only realistic scenario, in our view, would be a very substantial increase in inflation expectations to a level clearly above the recent norm.  Otherwise, Fed officials would almost certainly complete the $600bn program.


The Liberation Controversy?

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 05:14 AM PST


Via Pension Pulse.

It's been exactly one year since I wrote about an exciting but controversial treatment for Multiple Sclerosis (MS), called the Liberation treatment. A lot has happened in a year, and I think it's important to share some of my thoughts with you. Please feel free to relay the information back to anyone you know who has MS.

Let me begin with the tragedy that happened a month ago. CBC reports, Lack of follow-up deplored after MS death:

Some Canadians who've left the country for a controversial multiple sclerosis treatment remain frustrated by what they consider a lack of medical support after an Ontario man died following the procedure.

 

CBC News reported Thursday that Mahir Mostic, 35, of St. Catharines died on Oct. 19, one day after doctors in Costa Rica tried to dissolve a blood-clot complication following the vein-opening procedure.

 

He first went to the Central American country in June to have a mesh stent inserted to prop open a vein in his neck in hopes it would relieve symptoms of his fast-moving form of MS.

 

But after Mostic returned to Canada, his MS became worse and a blood clot formed around the stent.

 

Dr. Marcial Fallas of Clinica Biblica in San Jose, who cared for Mostic both times, thinks the powerful medication used to dissolve the clot triggered internal bleeding.

 

Fallas said he has performed the procedure 300 times, but Mostic's was the only time he used a stent. On Friday, Fallas said he wouldn't try a stent again unless it is proven to work specifically in neck veins.

Stents are approved for use in arteries, not veins.

 

When Mostic was in Costa Rica, Edmonton resident Betty Taylor was in Bulgaria getting a stent to open up her left jugular vein.

 

Taylor said she felt better after the procedure but that the effects didn't last and she's having trouble walking again.

 

Taylor said she was unable to get a referral to a Canadian specialist for the procedure and went abroad aware of the risks she faced.

 

"I was told that no, I would not get a referral because the doctor would be thrown in jail," Taylor said.

 

Like Mostic, Taylor's stent is now blocked. Over the weekend, she's going to the U.S. to have the vein opened again.

 

In offering her condolences to Mostic's friends and family, Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq noted seven Canadian trials are underway to determine whether blocked veins are linked to MS.

 

"How can a doctor know what they're looking for, or how to treat without that information or the scientific evidence that is required to move forward?" Aglukkaq asked reporters in Ottawa.

 

Mostic's death points to the need for clinical trials in Canada and a registry of people who've had the treatment, said Liberal MP Kirsty Duncan.

 

Last month, Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall announced $5 million in funding for clinical trials in the province that aim to answer whether the procedure is safe and if it works.

 

While Wall did not endorse the surgery, nor did he dismiss the hopes of MS patients seeking it.

"We deserve to lead in finding them some answers either way on it," Wall said.

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The death of any patient is a tragedy. Speaking with my friends and family who are trained physicians, stents are risky business, even in arteries, let alone veins which are much more fragile. The actual testing that goes on with medical devices is nowhere near as exhaustive as drug trials. Also, it is important to remember that Dr. Zamboni's theory and his own procedures never involved stents, only balloon angioplasty to open up blocked veins.
Moreover, you will get all sorts of accounts on this treatment. Some have reported priceless relief from MS symptoms:
There's hope for the 75,000 Canadians suffering from multiple sclerosis. Outside of Canada, that is. I know it because I've experienced it. Or, rather, my wife, Tracy, has. She walked out of a medical clinic in Albany, New York, three weeks ago following a 40-minute procedure with a brighter outlook on the world and her future.

Her eyesight was sharper. The main symptoms of her MS -- the fatigue and vertigo which have forced her to sleep two hours every afternoon for the past nine years -- have all but disappeared. Yes, it cost us thousands of dollars to go cross-border shopping for health, but gaining back two hours every day? Priceless.

If you know anyone with MS, and Canada has one of the highest rates of the disease in the world, you've probably heard similar stories to ours.

People who are travelling the globe in search of the procedure that's unavailable here, often cobbling together money from friends, family and neighbours for the trek. To Poland. Mexico. Costa Rica. Bulgaria. Italy. Kuwait. Jordan. India. California. Or like us, to Albany.

Most have reported improvements. Some modest. Some remarkable. Patients formerly confined to wheelchairs are taking steps again. MS sufferers who couldn't previously walk long distances are now jogging. Warmth and sensitivity have returned to hands and feet. Energy levels have spiked.
Other patients have reported horror stories, even regretting their decision to undergo this treatment:
One month after receiving the “liberation therapy” he had hoped would loosen the debilitating grip of multiple sclerosis on his life, Jamie McGowan was still racked with pain and felt like a ticking time bomb.

He feared one of four stents inserted into veins in his neck at a hospital in India could come loose and launch into his heart, or that an accidental blow might drive one of them into his brain.

“If anyone ever said ‘we'll need to do this again' . . . I would never do it, never,” says McGowan, who as a fan of body piercing could not be counted among the squeamish. “I would never go through that pain again.”
So what's the answer? Should MS patients be spending thousands of dollars to undergo the liberation therapy? I wish I could tell you yes or no, but from what I've heard from people who have undergone this procedure, doctors told them about 1/3 of the patients report marked improvements, 1/3 marginal improvements and 1/3 no improvements whatsoever (and this regardless of age, gender or disease progression).

This may not sound promising but if you're part of that 1/3 who experienced marked or even marginal improvements, then the procedure is indeed worth the cost. This underscores the need to develop and conduct proper clinical trials in Canada and the United States. We need to understand more about this procedure and the link between CCSVI and MS.

Some people are frustrated with the slow process of getting clinical trials underway. Ashton Embry sent me a CTV link providing details on Mostic's death and the need for clinical trials (click here to watch all the videos and pay attention to what Dr. Zamboni says). Ashton also wanted me to relay the following to my readers:

It is clear that the MS Society wants to delay a pivotal CCSVI treatment trial for as long as possible as demonstrated by the Multiple Sclerosis Society/ Canadian Institutes for Health Research Report on CCSVI Treatment Research (http://www.direct-ms.org/magazines/Beaudet%20Executive%20Summary.pdf).

 

In contrast, Direct-MS sees the need for a CCSVI treatment trial as soon as possible. Such a trial will be necessary before the medical profession/government bodies accept that CCSVI treatment is of value for MS. The sooner the trial is completed, the sooner CCSVI treatment will be widely available in Canada and the USA.

 

Direct-MS is spearheading an effort to raise enough money to fund a proper clinical trial to test the effectiveness of CCSVI. Such a trial will likely cost ~ 5 million dollars. Because of the critical importance of such CCSVI clinical research, all non-directed donations to Direct-MS over the next 24 months will go to this project.

 

Importantly, Direct-MS is a volunteer, “flow through” charity and every dollar donated will go to research. We take nothing off the top and this approach contrasts sharply with that of the MS Society which uses the majority of all money collected for internal uses (salaries, fund raising, administration, travel) rather than research.

 

If you wish to donate to Direct-MS, this can be done either through our website (http://www.direct-ms.org/donate.html) or by sending a cheque to Direct-MS, 5119 Brockington Rd NW, Calgary, AB, Canada, T2L 1R7.

 

Direct-MS is a registered charity and a receipt for tax purposes will be issued promptly for both Canada and the USA. Please tell your friends and relatives, if they want to help persons with MS, to consider donating to Direct-MS. If we are going to reach our goal of funding a proper CCSVI treatment trial, we are going to have strong support from as many people as possible.

I do not share Ashton's cynicism on the neurological community, but I do share his passion for more answers regarding MS and the need for proper trials regarding the liberation therapy. Ashton's insights on diet and MS have been a valuable source of information for many MS patients and I am thankful to have met him and his wonderful family.

I invite everyone to carefully assess the decision to undergo this procedure. Even if you see marked improvements, you should be aware that there is a risk of restenosis of the veins, and performing angioplasty several times on blocked veins can lead to permanent damage. Of course, if you have no other option, and are frustrated with neurologists and the delays with clinical trials, then you might want to consider undergoing this procedure elsewhere. Again, it's not a cure, but we definitely need more research and proper clinical trials to understand why some patients see benefits and others don't.

In the meantime, people should go over the one-year timeline provided on CTV's website. I would also urge patients, especially newly diagnosed patients, not to lose hope. Don't do what I did, spending months at the McGill University medical school library researching MS after I got diagnosed, trying to find out everything I could about this bedevilling disease with no simple answers.

As with any illness, your mindset is critical. You're going to have great days and you're going to have bad days. Just accept it. Stay positive, take care of your body and your mind, and focus on your life. Focus on what you can do today, not what you might not be able to do tomorrow. Remember the natural course of the disease is that many patients live a relatively normal life.

As for me, I'm still taking high dose vitamin D (drop form, 20,000 IUs a day) and feel very good (talk to your doctor before doing anything). I'm not perfect, but I'm thankful for being able to work and be a productive citizen (if I can only spend less time blogging!). I'm considering the liberation treatment, but I would prefer doing it under the supervision of Canadian or US doctors. That's my preference and it's based entirely on receiving proper follow-up care.

But I will also tell you that I remain hopeful. There are a lot of clinical trials going on in MS, and I wouldn't be shocked to see more breakthroughs in the future. Just this weekend, I read about research from the University of Colorado at Boulder suggesting that an existing anti-inflammatory drug can be used to heal multiples sclerosis lesions. There will be more exciting research on MS, but we need to remain patient and we need to explore all possible treatments, no matter how controversial they are.


How HIGH Could Silver Go in December?

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 04:21 AM PST

There is no other way to describe silver's price movement of the past 13 weeks other than to call it parabolic. With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to do a little study of past silver parabolic moves and see if I could get a handle on just how high silver could travel into December before it implodes.


Gold Top Head and Shoulder (H&amp;S) Pattern?

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 04:02 AM PST


A cautionary tale for gold and silver buyers

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 03:32 AM PST

By Michael Hiltzik
Los Angeles Times
Saturday, November 20, 2010

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hiltzik-20101121,0,49225.column

In these troubled economic times, it's not hard to understand why people might want to protect their life savings by purchasing a hard asset like gold or silver.

At least that's the pitch of Monex, the big Newport Beach, California, investment firm, which bills itself as "America's trusted name in precious metals investments" and assures clients that it's "committed to customer service."

So let's take a look at the experiences of some customers who say their trust in Monex was misplaced.

Patricia Mike, 66, of Camarillo says she had no investing experience when she and two adult daughters discovered Monex via the Internet in 2008, according to their lawsuit in Orange County Superior Court. Mike owned an annuity and an inheritance worth $240,000 that she wanted to protect. Her daughters, Susanne Drumheller and Johnna Mike-Price, had the proceeds of a lawsuit.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan power plants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php



Banks were failing, the stock market had cratered. Their Monex salesman assured them that their idea of buying gold bars was the right one -- calling it a "very safe, no-risk investment," the lawsuit says. They say they invested a total of $689,500.

Then the pressure started, their lawsuit alleges. Within days, the salesman was urging them not to sit on their gold bars but to trade actively in the metals market, according to their suit, so they could "double their money," even "quad" their investments.

Over the next eight or nine months he called and texted them relentlessly, sending thousands of text messages, up to 30 a day, urging them to make trades, they claim. Mike, Drumheller and Mike-Price say they gave in to his hectoring, but didn't realize that he had them buying and selling gold and silver on margin -- using money purportedly lent them by Monex to make investments much larger than their original stakes. They assert that some of these trades were made without their authorization or contrary to their instructions.

Over the period in which the family held Monex accounts, both gold and silver rose in price. Mike told me they lost a total of $450,000.

Monex's response to the lawsuit was to say the dispute should be handled in arbitration, which is scheduled for next year.

Then there's Rudolph Shaffter, who was a 70-year-old retiree in Menominee Falls, Wis., when he opened a Monex account in 2006. Ultimately he invested $273,000, relying on his salesman's representations that some of his clients were doubling and quadrupling their money, according to a suit Shaffter and four other plaintiffs filed in Orange County Superior Court.

Nothing to it, the representative said -- he'd make the decisions on the account, and Shaffter would only have to reply "yes" to questions asked on a recorded line, the suit alleges. Over the next few years, his suit claims, Shaffter's account showed aggregate purchases of $11.3 million in precious metals and he was charged commissions of $87,272. When it was all over, Shaffter alleges, he was almost completely wiped out. He now lives mostly on $229 a month in Social Security.

Monex, in an answer to his Orange County Superior Court lawsuit, denies wrongdoing and contends the losses were "purely the result of adverse precious metals market conditions." Yet both gold and silver have been on a virtually unbroken bull market since he opened his account.

A hearing on Monex's motion to force Shaffter's lawsuit to arbitration is scheduled for Jan. 26.

Kevin Walker of Johnson City, Tenn., was the lead plaintiff in a 2004 class-action lawsuit contending that Monex misled its customers in numerous material ways. When a Monex lawyer asked Walker during a deposition to explain why he sued, he replied, "I felt like they underhandedly lied to me throughout basically my whole trading sessions."

The lawsuit concluded last year with a $150,000 payment by Monex to Walker and his fellow class members.

Monex's website says it was founded in 1967 by Louis E. Carabini, whose son is now associated with the firm. That's an interesting claim, in light of Monex's legal position in a lawsuit that could hit the company hard.

The 2008 case, filed by the IRS in Los Angeles federal court, seeks more than $378 million in taxes, interest and penalties dating at least to the 1980s. Some of the tax is due from what the government asserts were "abusive" tax shelters on which Monex claimed tax losses.

Monex says in court filings that those claims apply to a different, legally distinct Monex. The feds say that's a fraudulent dodge, insofar as today's Monex entities acknowledge that they operate at the same address and with the same phone numbers as the old Monex, and given that today's Monex traces its pedigree back more than 30 years to its founding by Carabini. The case is still in discovery.

I asked Monex for comment on the issues raised by customers and by the federal government. They never got back to me.

Monex has been the target of federal regulators and aggrieved investors in the past. As far back as 1974, the Securities and Exchange Commission accused Carabini and Pacific Coast Coin Exchange, a Monex predecessor, of having obtained $1 billion from the public through sham sales of silver coins on margin.

Carabini settled the case without admitting wrongdoing and promised not to break securities laws in the future. The SEC then turned over regulation of Monex to the new, and inexperienced, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The CFTC cast a critical eye on "leverage" contracts like those marketed by Monex, which were unregulated and involved essentially the purchase of interests in precious metals with a small down payment and lots of borrowed money. "This is a game for sharks," a commodities expert who served on a CFTC committee told me in 1983. But the transactions didn't exactly mirror futures or options, which fell more clearly within the CFTC's jurisdiction.

In 1986 the agency submitted a bill in Congress to ban leverage contracts outright. That provision was killed after then-Sen. Pete Wilson of California threatened a filibuster, saying it would put Monex out of business. Subsequently Monex gave Wilson $6,000 in campaign contributions and paid for a weekend jaunt by Wilson and his wife to Boca Raton, Fla. (After the contributions were revealed, Wilson returned the money.)

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that these are good times for Monex, given the unsettled economic environment. But it's hard to comprehend why anyone would invest with Monex after reading its margin account agreement:

http://www.monex.com/special/docs/atlas.pdf

The document states that the firm owes "no fiduciary duty" to the customer, its various fees and charges can produce a loss for the customer even if the price of the investment commodity moves in his or her favor, and the customer should "assume" that the interests of the firm and its account representatives "conflict with the interests of the Customer." It says Monex can set its own prices for precious metals regardless of any other published market prices, and it can change them all day long if it pleases.

Yet people do give Monex their money. Why? Perhaps it has something to do with their being hectored by an account rep dozens of times a day, as Patricia Mike and her daughters allege happened to them. Or perhaps they're lured by the firm's assurances that precious metals investing is easy and "fun," as Shaffter says he was told.

Maybe they just buy into Monex's claim to be "America's trusted name in precious metals investment." But the wisest approach to doing business with Monex may be this: Watch out for yourself.

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf


Price suppression is no bargain once gold and silver are acquired

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 03:18 AM PST

11:17a ET Sunday, November 20, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

While GATA is grateful for fund manager Peter Schiff's interviewing GATA board member Adrian Douglas on his Internet radio program Friday (http://schiffradio.com/pg/jsp/charts/audioMaster.jsp?dispid=301&id=5116...), it was awfully disappointing to hear Schiff fall into the rationalization for gold and silver price suppression that has been used by newsletter writer Dennis Gartman and so many others over the years.

That is, as Schiff said, gold and silver price suppression is a great gift to gold and silver investors, since it allows them to acquire the metals and related assets at bargain prices.

Price suppression prior to an asset's acquisition may be fine for a buyer, but of course price suppression after acquisition is deadly, and the world now is working on 50 years of gold price suppression by Western governments, and particularly the U.S. government, if the count starts with the establishment of the London Gold Pool in 1961. Vast documentation of gold price suppression instigated by the U.S. government has been compiled by GATA here:

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

How many precious metals investors have died in the decades since the gold price suppression scheme began? How many will die before the scheme is busted and ends? Will they go to their graves content in Schiff's assurance that they were able to acquire precious metals at bargain prices if they are not able to realize the rewards of their foresight?

In his interview with Douglas, Schiff did acknowledge that gold price suppression would be bad for its giving false signals to the world financial system about inflationary conduct by central banks, which is indeed a primary purpose of the scheme, another way of deceiving and cheating the markets and investors. Anyone who can see that much of it should be able to see the whole of it eventually, and GATA will keep working to that end.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan powerplants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php



GATA chairman&#039;s sister to be on CBS Evening News on Monday

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 02:53 AM PST

10:50a ET Sunday, November 21, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy isn't the only illustrious member of his family. His sister, Diane Murphy Cox, is to appear Monday on the CBS Evening News with Katie Couric during a feature story about a San Diego-based social-service organization called Just In Time for Foster Youth, of which Diane is founder and president.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan power plants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php




Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf


GATA chairman's sister to be on CBS Evening News on Monday

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 02:53 AM PST

10:50a ET Sunday, November 21, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy isn't the only illustrious member of his family. His sister, Diane Murphy Cox, is to appear Monday on the CBS Evening News with Katie Couric during a feature story about a San Diego-based social-service organization called Just In Time for Foster Youth, of which Diane is founder and president.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan power plants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php




Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Dollar Direction Dependent on UUP

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 02:22 AM PST

Recent euro weakness, stemming from Irish sovereign debt concerns has allowed the UUP to recover from the 22 region. This has enabled the dollar to bump up against key resistance. While Tuesday's rejection at 23 maintains the ongoing bearish ,,, Read More...



Global Inflation Watch as Gold and Silver Hit Good Support, QE2 Aimed at Breaking Stocks Higher

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 02:18 AM PST

“Pure truth, like pure gold, has been found unfit for circulation because men have discovered that it is far more convenient to adulterate the truth than to refine themselves.” - Charles Caleb Colton There is so much going on out there that it’s difficult to pick a starting point. China, Ireland, quantitative easing and even Greece pop in and out of the news like a cork bobbing around on rough seas. One day everybody is selling everything due to deflationary fears and the very next day they are buying everything because of the threat of inflation. Then the next day deflation back on the tip of everybody’s tongue…


Forest&#8230;Trees&#8230;

Posted: 21 Nov 2010 12:35 AM PST

Steve Ludlum over on Economic Undertow has one of the most original spins on our Economic spin down of the many bloggers writing now on the internet.  He is a Deflationista who follows a "Hard Dollar" hypothesis.  This recent post of his explains quite a bit about the inflationary problems in China and the dangers [...]


Silver: Commercial Shorts Continue to Consolidate

Posted: 20 Nov 2010 11:52 PM PST

Ananthan Thangavel submits:

Between November 9-16 (the date of the latest Commitment of Traders report), silver fell 12.71%. In our last report, we reported that the percentage of open interest held by the four largest short traders of silver had increased from 44.1% to 45.4%. In the latest Commitment of Traders report, we can see that this percentage has again increased to 46.6% for the week of November 9-16.

click to enlarge


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SPX Retraces 50% of Decline, VIX Another False Break?

Posted: 20 Nov 2010 11:22 PM PST

FDIC Keeps a Low Profile. - The FDIC Failed Bank List announced three new bank closures this week.  Three Potentially Disastrous Outcomes From Ben Bernanke's QE 2 Wager  (ZeroHedge)  Ben Bernanke has made a very dangerous bet.  The Fed’s Quantitative Easing 2 announcement of $600 billion in additional Treasury purchases is literally a “bet the farm” move. True, the Fed had already engaged in an unbelievable amount of bailouts both known and unknown. However, the Fed’s previous moves were all made when 1) the world financial system was teetering on the brink of collapse and 2) other countries were engaging in similar practices.


Australia's Housing Bubble Illustrates All Governments Intervening to Delay Inevitable Bust

Posted: 20 Nov 2010 11:06 PM PST

The past three years have been dominated by government intervention … The U.S. propped up the banks with TARP money, and then gave banks ultra-easy money terms to recapitalize. And to unfreeze the global credit markets, the U.S. provided unlimited dollar swap lines with global central banks.


Richard Russell: Markets in Danger, But Gold Has a Ways to Go

Posted: 20 Nov 2010 09:09 PM PST

prieur du plessis Prieur du Plessis submits:

Richard Russell, famous market analyst and writer of the Dow Theory Letters, is regarded as the doyen of investment newsletter writers. And rightly so as the 86-year-old is one of the few men still around to tell us first hand about the Great Depression and how similar today’s economy feels.

Russell, like any investor, has not always been right with his market forecasts. While he has been dead wrong on equity markets for most of the bull market since March last year, he has been one of the few commentators who have been spot on with their predictions of the great bull market in gold right from the starting blocks in 2001.


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Bernanke Throws a Hissyfit

Posted: 20 Nov 2010 08:50 PM PST


Bernanke Throws a Hissyfit

Courtesy of Mike Whitney

ben bernanke Say what you will about Alan Greenspan, he was never a whiner. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for present Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. Bernanke's speech on Friday at a conference for the European Central Bank (ECB) was so full of crybaby blabber that attendees must have thought they'd ducked into a Frankfurt daycare center by mistake. What an embarrassment! For nearly an hour, Bernanke went on and on about how mean China is and how they manipulate their currency to gain competitive advantage. It was surreal; like listening to a serial arsonist complain about his wife smoking in bed. Here's a sample:

“Currency undervaluation by surplus countries is inhibiting needed international adjustment and creating spillover effects that would not exist if exchange rates better reflected market fundamentals,” Bernanke moaned.

Let's get this straight, when China's dollar peg was helping to recycle hundreds of billions of dollars into dodgy mortgage-backed securities and inflating a monstrous asset bubble that enriched Bernanke's crony friends on Wall Street, everything was hunky dory. But now that the Fed can't pump up another credit bubble by lowering interest rates, out come the handkerchiefs and everyone is supposed to feel sorry for poor little Bennie. Waah!

Why should China care about "market fundamentals"? China is doing what is right for China. What's wrong with that? Americans wish that their government would operate the same way and implement policies that support the interests of US workers instead of lining the pockets of multinational capitalists and bank-vermin.

Here's more from Bernanke:

"The exchange rate adjustment is incomplete, in part, because the authorities in some emerging market economies have intervened in foreign exchange markets to prevent or slow the appreciation of their currencies. ... why have officials in many emerging markets leaned against appreciation of their currencies toward levels more consistent with market fundamentals? The principal answer is that currency undervaluation on the part of some countries has been part of a long-term export-led strategy for growth and development. This strategy, which allows a country's producers to operate at a greater scale and to produce a more diverse set of products than domestic demand alone might sustain, has been viewed as promoting economic growth and, more broadly, as making an important contribution to the development of a number of countries."

That's right; China's export-led model is the root of its success, which is why it's not going to change anytime soon. And China has been helped every step of the way by congress's blanket support for labor-crushing "free trade" policies. If China has suddenly morphed into Frankenstein, Bernanke can only blame himself and the other members of the Washington political class. 

Bernanke again: "However, increasingly over time, the strategy of currency undervaluation has demonstrated important drawbacks, both for the world system and for the countries using that strategy."

In other words, it's all a matter of whose ox is getting gored. None of this mattered when homeowners were getting swindled in the biggest home equity ripoff of all time ($8 trillion in lost equity) or when Bernanke was bailing out his oily bankster buddies by handing them $1.75 trillion in reserves for their garbage mortgage paper that no one else would buy. Even in the depths of the slump when millions of unemployed workers faced the end of their benefits, and food stamp use had skyrocketed to 10% of the population, and the lines at the homeless shelters could be seen winding from sea to shining sea, Bernanke still refused to help. He still opposed a second round of fiscal stimulus aligning himself instead with the GOP deficit hawks.

But all that has changed now, because the Fed is stuck at zero-rates and isn't able to affect the smooth transfer of wealth from one class to another--from indentured US workers to fatcat speculators. China has blocked Bernanke's ability to implement policy, so the Fed chief is throwing a hissyfit. 

Bernanke again: "On its current economic trajectory the United States runs the risk of seeing millions of workers unemployed or underemployed for many years. As a society, we should find that outcome unacceptable. Monetary policy is working in support of both economic recovery and price stability, but there are limits to what can be achieved by the central bank alone. The Federal Reserve is nonpartisan and does not make recommendations regarding specific tax and spending programs. However, in general terms, a fiscal program that combines near-term measures to enhance growth with strong, confidence-inducing steps to reduce longer-term structural deficits would be an important complement to the policies of the Federal Reserve."

Hallelujah. So Bernanke finally supports a second round of fiscal stimulus. Will wonders never cease? But doesn't that mean that Bernanke was wrong from the get go? Doesn't that prove that Milton Friedman, Anna Schwartz and all the nutcase "quantity of money" people were wrong and that the "aggregate demand" Keynesians were right?*

As steward of the world's reserve currency, the Federal Reserve is not used to other countries dictating monetary policy, but that is precisely what is happening. China is in the drivers seat now. The Fed can buy up two-thirds of next years issuance of US Treasuries (which Bernanke plans to do) in order to push a wall of capital into emerging markets, but if China continues to recycle its dollars into US debt and maintain its dollar peg, then the Fed will not succeed. And, it's a good thing, too. If the last 10 years have taught us anything, it's that the unipolar world--where one country dominates politically, economically and militarily--is not good for anyone. It's time for a change. "Let a thousand flowers bloom," as Mao would say.

China has tied Bernanke's hands. The least we can do is be grateful.  

*Many seem to think that Keynes would have supported the TARP and other bailouts. I assure you, there is nothing in Keynes "General Theory" that supports bailouts for crooked bankers. People who know very little about his ideas seem all-too-eager to brand any policy they don't care for as "Keynesian". 

Originally published at CounterPunch, Tying Bernanke's Hands

Photo by Jr. Deputy Accountant  


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