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Sunday, November 7, 2010

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Senator Lindsay Graham Warns Of War With Iran, Confrontation With "Cheating" China

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 03:32 PM PDT


With republicans back in control, it was only a matter of time before the military-industrial complex reminded the world of its existence. It took about 72 hours: republican senator Lindsay Graham, who apparently has not received the memo that all modern wars are now waged in binary, and are won by those who can push the FX bid/ask the furthest and the fastest away from equilibrium, spoke at the Halifax International Security Forum, giving a very distinct taste of what US foreign policy is about to look like: "Iran is a major threat to any conceivable world order" and that he sees an almost inevitable confrontation with Iran. As AP reports, the South Carolina Republican saw the United States going to war with the Islamic republic "not to just neutralize their nuclear program, but to sink their navy, destroy their air force and deliver a decisive blow to the Revolutionary Guard, in other words neuter that regime." And the Democrats, still in shock over their recent pummelling, will likely not have the resolve to respond palliatively to such warmongering, which they likely deem as supported by the broad population: "US Democratic Senator Mark Udall, who joined Graham during a panel discussion at the forum in Halifax, Nova Scotia, urged continued sanctions against Iran. But he also noted that "every option is on the table," a thinly veiled reference to possible military action." And just when the world was getting along so well, and all the international bickering appeared to be taking place over various Forex terminals...

More from AP:

 The United States faces a possible war with Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions and a "period of confrontation" with China over its currency, a top US lawmaker warned Saturday.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said his fellow conservative, fresh from their historic elections romp this week, support "bold" action to deal with Iran.

If President Barack Obama "decides to be tough with Iran beyond sanctions, I think he is going to feel a lot of Republican support for the idea that we cannot let Iran develop a nuclear weapon," he told the Halifax International Security Forum.

"The last thing America wants is another military conflict, but the last thing the world needs is a nuclear-armed Iran... Containment is off the table."

Furthermore, the fact that Iran recently converted 15% of its $100Bn+ in reserves into gold did not win it any brownie points with the global central banking cartel.

Yet perhaps war may be avoidable:

Democrats may gain surprise support for continued diplomacy from some ultra-conservative Tea Party newcomers to Washington who diverge on foreign policy matters with their Republican brethren.

Various UN resolutions and sanctions have sought to halt Iran's uranium enrichment activities, so far having little effect.

Then again, maybe not. It has been a while since assorted logistic and military airplane manufacturers reported blowout quarters. Time to change that.

And if Graham has his way, soon the US may need to send an aircraft carrier or 17 over to the South China Sea.

Graham also warned of a forthcoming "period of confrontation" with China over its "cheating" currency manipulation.

US and European lawmakers have called for a stronger Chinese currency as their economies struggle to recover from the global financial crisis. US lawmakers claim the yuan is grossly undervalued and causes global trade imbalances.

Several countries ranging from Japan to Colombia have intervened in recent weeks to make their currencies cheaper in the hope of exporting their way out of the downturn, fueling fears of a global currency war.

Currency tensions boiled over at the recent annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, with China rejecting calls for a quick revaluation.

Surely, those cheating Chineses will be delighted to be called cheats again, just two days after advisors to the PBoC called unbridled printing of dollars "the biggest risk to the global economy and said China should use currency policy and capital controls to cushion itself from external shocks." We can't wait to read the glowingly favorable, two thumbs up rebuttal in tomorrow's China Daily.

Perhaps before we hit the launch button, we should familiarize ourselves with the following chart which shows that for the first time ever China is now ahead of the US in number of warships.

Last but not least, we are eagerly awaiting the release of a tape by Al Qaeda, spotlighting bin Laden's congratulations to the republican party over their victory.

 


What A Week!

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 02:27 PM PDT

"Silver shares on fire! HUI roars! CME tells CFTC to pound salt on position limits. Opium wars and gold wars? Two new lawsuits against JPMorgan and HSBC... and much, much more! " Last Week in Gold and Silver As you can tell from this past week's price activity, I picked a hell of a week to be away from my post. The precious metals got hit hard about three hours before the FOMC issued their statement on Wednesday... and then again when the statement was released shortly after 2:00 p.m. But, from that low, the gold price put in a substantial rally starting with the Thursday morning open in London at 8:00 a.m. local time... 3:00 a.m. in New York. The gold price then began a long decline that commenced the moment that trading began in the Far East on Friday morning... but shortly after 8:30 a.m. on Friday morning, a rally began that took gold within an eyelash of $1,400 spot a couple of times... but these attempts to break through that price were sold off. The ...


Diwali, Dollars and Gold

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 12:48 PM PDT

By Frank Holmes CEO and Chief Investment Officer U.S. Global Investors Today marks the beginning of Diwali festival in India and the next stage in gold’s seasonal patterns. The five day “Festival of Lights” is a major Hindu holiday and involves the lighting of small clay lamps (diyas) filled with oil to signify the triumph of good over evil. During Diwali, lights illuminate every corner of India and fireworks light up the skies. Activities during these five days include worship, many feasts, spending time with families and exchanging gifts. The latter is a big driver of gold demand. Traditionally, Indians are very sensitive to fluctuating gold prices but it appears they are adjusting to the concept of higher gold prices. Last year, China surged ahead of India in terms of jewelry demand until Diwali reignited retail demand in India. It also didn’t hurt that India’s central bank bought 200 tons of gold around $1,000 an ounce. This put a...


We're in a Currency Crisis: Here's What to Do

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 12:44 PM PDT

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud Saturday, November 6, 2010 "We're in a currency crisis…" As I showed you yesterday, that's the "crazy" claim my publisher, Porter Stansberry, is making right now. Given his track record of getting big-picture claims like the Fannie Mae and GM bankruptcies right, it's no wonder we're seeing "currency crisis" levels of precious metal prices right now ($26.60 silver and $1,395 gold). But as Porter and legendary speculator Doug Casey recently discussed, you shouldn't stick your head in the sand and try to forget about what's happening. You need to take several steps to safeguard your wealth… and even increase it by two or three times during the turmoil. It turns out, Porter and Doug like a lot of the ideas we've been covering here in DailyWealth. Here is one of Doug's favorites… Nuclear power is the safest, cleanest, and cheapest form of mass-power generation that there is. Eventually, science and sense will overrule the hysteria, and the wor...


It’s Officially the Beginning of the End

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 11:34 AM PDT


More than two years ago, the day after we nationalized Fannie and Freddie, I penned an article in which I forecast the end of the US as an empire and the end of the US Dollar standard. Despite the fact that others had been calling for a collapse of the US for years, my piece still received a great deal of hostility and condemnation. The comments ranged from, “you’re out of your mind, the US will always be #1 to “I don’t like the bailouts either, but you’re taking it too far.”

 

Here we are, two years later, and to be honest, the stuff that has come to pass is simply mind-blowing. In plain terms, the US is now a country in which…

 

  • EVERYONE knows that the Wall Street banks KNOWINGLY engaged in fraud (Citibank executives confirmed this under oath), predatory lending, and other felonies and NOT ONE executive has been charged with a criminal act.

 

  • There is clear evidence that elements of the Financial Crisis were intentionally induced by key players in order to wipe out their competitors (you know who I’m talking about).

 

  • The head of our central bank has LIED under oath about monetizing the debt (among other things)… and walks free.

 

  • Our Secretary of the Treasury KNOWINGLY chose to hand out as much public money to Wall Street in exchange for what he and everyone else knew were worthless garbage assets. Again, no charges.

 

  • Our President increased troop levels for wars EVERYONE knows were started under false pretences (and continued policies of torture!?!?!) and WON the Nobel Peace Prize

 

Let’s face it… if an alien came down from outer space and compared the US to other countries, it’d think we were just another 3rd world country that somehow managed to get bigger than the others. We’ve got the same levels of corruption, fraud, and lies, combined with the same looting, indebtedness, and crumbling infrastructure.

 

In plain terms, this is the beginning of the end. When an entire country’s economy is based on imaginary math, accounting gimmicks, and ideas that don’t even make sense on paper (let alone in reality) you know that economy will collapse.

 

Look at the reaction to QE 2. Even the most bullish idiot knows deep down that nothing good will come out of it. QE 1 failed. QE 2 will as well. Not one person has a single doubt about this. Sure, they might smile and say it’s great on TV (or in their op-ed columns) because their job or political pressure requires them to do so, however, their eyes tell the whole story. Not one of them looks confident or composed… they all look exhausted, strung out, and terrified. They should be, they know what’s at stake (EVERYTHING).

 

Enjoy this last little burst of enthusiasm while it lasts. The end game has begun. There’s a reason it’s called “extend and pretend,” it’s because it doesn’t STOP what’s coming… it only pushes it back a while.

 

Good Investing!

 

Graham Summers

 

PS. If you’re worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.

 

I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

 

Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Very Long Term US Dollar Chart

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 11:01 AM PDT


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

'Conspiracy Theory' episode featuring GATA is posted at YouTube

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 09:34 AM PDT

5:30p ET Saturday, November 6, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

The episode of Jesse Ventura's "Conspiracy Theory" program on the TruTV network that was broadcast Friday and featured GATA Chairman Bill Murphy has been posted in three parts at YouTube. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, the Fed's most informed critic in Congress, also has a big part in the program. You can watch it here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvaGbb6PNbI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuo6Mo1kH28

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wRfuAUubT0

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

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GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



Seven Bullish U.S. Dollar Charts You Should See

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 09:19 AM PDT

The currency market, as well as all markets, have been heavily focused on the U.S. and the Fed’s plans for more quantitative easing (QE). And that’s had a huge impact on the dollar and on dollar sentiment.


Unemployment: Some "Good" News

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 08:57 AM PDT


This article originally appeared in The Daily Capitalist.

 

Here is a good summary of yesterday's employment news:

We actually have some positive news in that the Establishment Jobs Survey shows that total private nonfarm employment increased by 159,000 jobs. But the negative is that there weren't enough new jobs created to reduce the overall unemployment rate which is stuck at 9.6% (the so-called U-3 rate of unemployment in the Household Survey). There are 14.8 million unemployed workers.

The overall total rate of unemployment (U-6) is still high at 17%. The U-6 rate accounts for "persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule." 42% of unemployed Americans, or 6.2 million people, were out of work for more than six months.


Click chart to enlarge

In the private sector, service-providing jobs advanced 154,000 after an 111,000 increase in September. Within services for October, temp help gained 35,000; health care added 24,000 jobs; and retail trade jumped 28,000. Goods-producing industries edged up 5,000 after a 4,000 dip in September. In the latest month, manufacturing was little changed, slipping 7,000; construction rose 5,000; and mining increased 8,000.

 

Average hourly earnings gained 0.2 percent in October after rising 0.1 percent in September. The October number matched the market forecast. The average workweek for all workers edged up to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours in October, marginally topping expectations for 34.2 hours. On a year-ago basis, overall payroll job growth rose to up 0.6 percent in October from up 0.3 percent the month before.

If we factor in the new jobless claims, we can see from the report for the week of October 23 that they are stuck in the 440-490,000 range since December 2009.

The Challenger, ADP, and Monster indices have flattened out as well. This indicated that job creation is on stall mode, but perhaps starting to slightly improve as the Establishment Survey shows us.

If anyone can find the brown lining in the silver cloud, it is Dave Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff:

The headline was undoubtedly strong, as were some of the details, but we want to warn readers that this was not a universally solid report. First, within the nonfarm report itself, virtually all the gains were in three sectors — health/education, retail trade and waste/administrative services. Goods-producing employment barely rose. The diffusion index for private payrolls dipped in October, to 55.0 from 55.6, which is a four-month low, and for manufacturing, the diffusion index fell to 42.1 from 54.3, which is the lowest since December 2009. So while there was depth to the report, in terms of magnitude, there was not a whole lot of breadth to it. Many sectors still reported job declines last month, including manufacturing, commercial and residential construction, transportation, information, financial and government. As I said, not a universally strong report, notwithstanding the solid headline results.

 

Moreover, the Household Survey showed a 330,000 decline in October, and again, full-time jobs declined, as they have for each of the past five months for a cumulative plunge of 1.1 million. The employment-to-population rate — the share of the population that is working — fell to 58.3% from 58.5%, a 10-month low.

Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge has calculated that we need to create about 232,400 a month to bring employment back to pre-crash levels by the end of Obama's second term. Obviously we are nowhere near that. Which is why Ben Bernanke is gambling with our future by printing money to stimulate the economy. It will end badly in my opinion with inflation without the growth (stagflation).


Swimming In Crude Oil? Record High Inventory Will Continue To Build

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 08:32 AM PDT


By Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions

Despite the recent price surge in crude oil this week, basically going from $81.50 to $87 a barrel within this week--thanks to a Fed's QE2-induced weak dollar-- oil inventories actually added another 2 million barrels build to the current stockpiles.

These are the highest inventory levels for Crude in 2010 and are just shy of the 370 million mark, which will be punctuated next week with another build in crude stockpiles. (See Stocks Chart from the U.S. EIA)

61% OPEC Compliance

Oil imports fell to 8.6 million barrels per day from the prior week's 9.5 million (See Chart).  So we even had a build with lower imports, and this trend will not continue as even before the recent price spike, OPEC members were producing beyond quotas (OPEC average compliance rate was at 61 percent in Oct.)

With elevated oil prices and the need for revenue in these challenging times for countries struggling with increasing debt burdens, expect the over producing to only get worse.  .

Contango Tankers & Non-OPEC

Another factor that is eventually going to put downward pressure on crude oil prices is that at $87 a barrel, any oil that was being stored in container ships is going to be dumped on the market at these elevated prices. Not to mention the fact that non OPEC countries will be producing as much oil as they possibly can with these higher price levels.

Seasonal Low Demand & Reduced Refinery Run

Then, there's the reduced refinery utilization rate .  U.S. refineries cut utilization rates to 81.8 percent, the lowest since March, as refiners try lower swollen inventory levels in the products market. We are also in the middle of the refinery turnaround season, which would further reduce the run rate.

Moreover, we are currently in the slower part of the demand side for crude oil products, the summer driving season is over, and historically, this is the weak part of the oil market from a calendar perspective, this is just in the U.S.

Quantitative Tightening - China, et al

If we take a look at China and India, they will be using less oil as well since both are struggling with escalating inflation levels. Both countries have raised gasoline and diesel prices the past month, lowering the subsidies for these products, which will only hurt demand.

As China, India and other emerging countries are implementing fresh “quantitative tightening”, including raising interests rates, among other measures to rein in inflation, "hot money", and partly to combat Fed's QE2, growth is expected to drop for the next couple of quarters, and longer. That means the emerging markets are not going to be a factor in eating into these swollen inventory levels for the next couple of quarters either.

Econ 101 - Supply, Demand & Prices

Evidently, we have a problem, and the problem is that we have more supply of crude oil in the market than demand, and this isn`t going to improve over the next couple of quarters, especially with higher prices which only incentivizes more crude to come to the market, and dis- incentivizes consumption or demand for oil and oil products.

This is economics 101, and evokes the old adage there is no cure for high prices like high prices. In other words, when you have rising levels of supply that is more than demand, prices have to come down, this is sound economic theory.

Rollover or Take Delivery

So expect crude oil to reverse some of these gains and trade back in the $75 to $85 range after the initial hoopla surrounding Mr. Bernanke`s QE2 initiative wears off and reality starts to set in come physical delivery time at Cushing.


The December 2010 Crude Oil contract expires trading on the 19th of November, and in an over-saturated market with limited storage capacity, crude Oil is likely to go lower over the next couple of weeks due to the fact that nobody will want to take physical delivery at these prices.

And given the record number of historic longs (See CFTC Chart), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report released on Friday shows cumulative net long positions at a record of 194,128. There were nearly 18,000 new net long positions against 2,551 new net short contract positions added in the week up to November 2.

Over the next couple of weeks these record number of long contracts have to be either rolled over or take physical delivery of the commodity, and given that a low number of market participants actually take physical delivery, the large number of rollovers will entail selling the Dec. 2010 futures contract and buying the Jan. 2011 futures contract.

These two factors of physical delivery and contract rollovers will be bearish for Crude Oil prices over the next couple of weeks.

Much Ado About Inventory, Credit & Housing

There is definitely an inflationary argument for higher crude prices (e.g. QE2) sometime in the future for the crude oil market, but not till inventories start going down, not when they are at record levels, and will only continue to build over the next couple of months based on the discussion so far.

The bottom line is demand has to improve considerably just to keep current supply levels at equilibrium, and this is just not going to occur in this economy with higher prices. The supply model was established at the peak of the credit bubble where you had a healthy housing market, healthy state and local budget revenue streams, and a robust credit market where small businesses, entrepreneurs, and individuals could easily attain credit.

The private contraction in the credit markets from the 2007 highs is still a major drag on the economy, and will not return to those levels for some time. So don`t expect crude oil demand to really start picking up steam till the housing market starts recovering, maybe by March 2011 is when both markets will start showing some improved demand fundamentals.

Swimming In Crude?

Crude, unlike gold and silver, which do not have weekly transparent inventory reports, and has much higher storage costs and capacity issues, actually has to adhere to the economics of supply and demand, and despite future inflation concerns, in the near term prices must go down due to swollen supply in the market.

Otherwise, we literally will be swimming in crude oil.

Dian L. Chu, Nov. 6, 2010


BERNANKE WILL KILL POOR PEOPLE

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 08:02 AM PDT

Below is an extremely important post from Zero Hedge http://www.zerohedge.com/. Bernanke has clearly stated why he is going to print $600 billion out of thin air:

"This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action. Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion." – Ben Bernanke - Nov 4 – Washington Post 

His goal is to increase stock prices. He said it. Below is a chart that shows who owns stocks. The top 20% wealthiest Americans own 91% of all the stocks in the country. The poorest 20% of Americans own virtually no stocks. 85% own $0 of stocks. QE2 will benefit these people in no way whatsoever. Essentially, Bernanke is attempting to make the 20% wealthiest Americans feel wealthier.

Table 5a: Concentration of stock ownership in the United States, 2001-2007
  Percent of all stock owned:
Wealth class 2001 2004 2007
Top 1% 33.5% 36.7% 38.3%
Next 19% 55.8% 53.9% 52.8%
Bottom 80% 10.7% 9.4% 8.9%
Table 5b: Amount of stock owned by various wealth classes in the U.S., 2007
  Percent of households owning stocks worth:
Wealth class $0 (no stocks) $1-$10,000 More than $10,000
Top 1% 7.4% 4.2% 88.4%
95-99% 7.8% 2.7% 89.5%
90-95% 13.2% 5.4% 81.4%
80-90% 17.9% 10.9% 71.2%
60-80% 34.6% 18.3% 47.1%
40-60% 52.3% 25.6% 22.1%
20-40% 69.7% 21.6% 8.7%
Bottom 20% 84.7% 14.3% 2.0%
TOTAL 50.9% 17.5% 31.6%
Both tables' data from Wolff (2007 & 2010).  Includes direct ownership of stock shares and indirect ownership through mutual funds, trusts, and IRAs, Keogh plans, 401(k) plans, and other retirement accounts. All figures are in 2007 dollars.

Now for the kicker. JP Morgan shows that the 20% poorest Americans spend over 50% of their after tax income on food and energy. The poor and middle classes are the recipients of inflation on the items needed to live. Wall Street receives free money, a promise from Bernanke that he has their backs if their gambles lose, and huge obscene bonuses. As you can see from this chart, the poor and middle classes were already being crushed by inflation, even before QE2.

Ben Bernanke has unleashed a tsunami of fiat currency. It is not flowing into sound investments like new plants and equipment. It is flowing into commodities (agricultural, gold, silver, oil). Real assets are surging. Mega corporations are increasing food prices, as Kraft, Unilever, General Mills & Kelloggs clearly stated this week:

Irene Rosenfeld, Kraft chief executive, told analysts that about half of the company's basket of input costs had gone up by 20 per cent to 30 per cent over where they were in the prior year and that the company had moved quickly to raise its prices in dealing with its primary customer base, supermarkets and grocery stores. – Financial Times

The Anglo-Dutch maker of Dove soap and Lipton tea, which has seen negative pricing for five straight quarters, said Latin America had already reversed course to become the first continent to weather price increases. This follows similar comments from fellow food producers General Mills and Kellogg, which expects to raise prices by 200 to 300 basis points next year. – Irish Times

By this winter, oil prices will rise above $100 and gasoline will again approach $4 per gallon. How will the 30 million unemployed Americans pay their heating bills? Senior citizens haven't gotten an increase in their SS payments in two years, while their food and energy costs skyrocket. Americans will die this winter because of the policies being implemented by Ben Bernanke. He will have blood on his hands. That is not hype. That is the truth.

How Ben Bernanke Sentenced The Poorest 20% Of The Population To A Cold, Hungry Winter

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/05/2010 16:40 -0500

The following chart prepared recently by JPMorgan demonstrates something rather scary, and makes it all too clear how the Chairman's plan to "assist" the US population via some imaginary "wealth effect" due to QE2, is about to backfire. As is now becoming very evident, the prices of energy and food products are about to surge, and in many cases have already done so, but courtesy of some clever gimmicks (Wal Mart selling what was formerly 39 oz of coffee as a 33.9 oz product for example) the end consumers haven't quite felt it yet. They will soon. There is a limit to how much every commodity can open limit up before it appears on the SKU price at one's local grocer. And while a marginally declining "core CPI" is irrelevant for this exercise as it measures only items that are completely outside of the scope of everyday life, what will be far more important to end consumers will be the push higher in food and energy costs. The problem, however, is that for the lowest 20% of Americans, as per the BLS, food and energy purchases represent over 50% of their after-tax income (a number which drops to 10% for the wealthiest twenty percentile). In other words should rampant liquidity end up pushing food and energy prices to double (something that is a distinct possibility currently), Ben Bernanke may have very well sentenced about 60 million Americans to a hungry and very cold winter, let alone having any resources to buy trinkets with the imaginary wealth effect which for over 80% of the US population will never come.

Here is how JPM explains the phenomenon:

When the Fed considers the possible consequences of a falling dollar resulting from QE2, it should perhaps focus on food and energy prices as much as on traditionally computed core inflation.  First, the food/energy exposures of the lower 2 income quintiles are quite high (see chart).  Second, the core  CPI has a massive weight to "owner's equivalent rent", which suggests that the imputed cost of home occupancy has gone down.  Unfortunately, this is not true for families living in homes that are underwater, and cannot move to take advantage of it (unless they choose to default and bear the consequences of doing so).   Due to the housing mess, there has perhaps never been a time when traditionally computed core inflation as a way of measuring changes in the cost of things means less than it does right now.

Since nothing else appears to have jarred America from its prime time TV/iPad hypnosis yet, perhaps this is for the best, and a few hungry months in subzero temperatures is precisely what several tens of millions of Americans need to finally march on Constitution avenue.


Curious Crude Oil & Silver Market Actions Warrant A CFTC Investigation

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 07:33 AM PDT


Once again we find some strange activity occurring in these markets from a trading perspective, and it is time that the increased staff and resources of the beefed-up CFTC enforcement division look into these two markets in particular.

Curious Crude Action After Pit Close

Let`s start with crude oil.

After the pit closes each day at 1:30 CST, the crude oil market is thinly traded and it is at this time within a relatively low volume trading environment, that crude oil is being dramatically manipulated up each day.


So price wouldn`t trade at these levels when you have the full complement of buyers and sellers and a competitive price market discovery process during each day.  However, after the pit closes, and markets are relatively illiquid, all of the sudden price levels that would not typically hold are boosted upward by as much as .50 to .75 cents each day in late electronic trading from 1:30 to 4:15 CST.

This is how the Crude Oil market is being manipulated upward by a relatively few number of market participants, and this practice should be investigated by the SEC.

The Infamous Silver Market

The next market to look at is the infamous silver market which has had a long history of being manipulated by a few market participants in pursuit of outsized gains. Just recently two traders filed separate suits against JP Morgan and HSBC alleging that these two firms artificially manipulated the price of silver down with collaborating trading activities utilizing enormous short positions in futures and options contracts on Comex. For example, in August 2008 Silver moved from $14.86 to $12.23 in one day, an 18% drop.

This is nothing new.  The Hunt brothers in the 1980`s tried to corner the Silver market, thinking inflation was a real concern, but they used anti-competitive practices by buying over $ 1 Billion worth of silver purchases through physical and futures contracts, and then taking delivery and storing the commodity of their futures contracts, thus artificially taking huge amounts of supply off the market, creating a bubble in the commodity which didn`t reflect the true fundamentals of the market.

Big Banks Move on Silver

Well, the big banks are at it again as silver on Thursday had a nearly 8% increase after already moving up considerably earlier in the week. Silver has gone from $23 an ounce to$26.75 an ounce in two weeks. The price action is obviously indicative of a one-sided market where the major market participants being the big banks are goosing the market up well beyond any underlying fundamental basis for this rise in prices.


In the silver market there are not a widely diversified set of market participants, and heavy collusion on behalf existing market participants, whether intentional or just of being of like mind, is creating major price distortions in the market.

The SEC needs to enforce position limits on these big banks with their exposure to the commodity as their presence is artificially creating another bubble market in Silver, with price reacting strictly to money inflows rather than market fundamentals of supply and demand of the commodity in the marketplace.

Dollar Not a Factor in Price

And to those that think these money inflows were directly correlated to the dollar weakness, the dollar was actually strong on Monday November 1st, and Friday November 5th.  And yet these two commodities continued to rise due to speculative money inflows.

It is time the CFTC addresses some of these manipulative market practices on behalf of the investment banks and large institutions as price distortions and artificially inflated price movements that don`t match the underlying fundamentals of supply and demand cause real damage to the economy.

After all, crude oil inventories and their associated products are well above their 5 year averages based upon the true fundamentals of the marketplace, and yet some elderly person on a fixed income has to pay 15 cents more per gallon of gasoline in two weeks time just because Goldman Sachs needs to hit their $20 Billion bonus pool target for 2010 and juices up the price of crude oil as a means to that end.

Static Chaos 


QUOTE OF THE DAY – DOUG CASEY IN 2005

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 07:00 AM PDT

How accurate was Doug Casey back in 2005? See for yourself:

What's going on now in the residential real estate market is much like the tech bubble, but potentially much, much more serious than what went on in stocks a few years ago…

The reason for the bubble is cheap money; the bubble is floating on a sea of debt. When it bursts – perhaps pricked by higher interest rates – millions of Americans will be sitting on a pile of debt suddenly much larger than the diminishing value of their assets. The banking system will have trillions in mortgages, credit card balances and other consumer debt they won't be able to collect. Millions of houses will hit the market in distress sales. Local governments, which are relying on inflated property tax bills to raise money to squander, will see rising expenses as an impoverished public demands more services – at the very time their revenues almost cease to exist. All of this adds up to a much more serious scenario than a stock market collapse.

Doug Casey, International Speculator, Vol XXVI, Issue 8, August 2005

If you want to see what he thinks will happen next click here for a risk free three month trial of  The Casey Report.


QE is all about destroying debt, dollar, Rickards tells King World News

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 05:43 AM PDT

1:40p ET Saturday, November 6, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Market intelligence analyst Jim Rickards tells Eric King of King World News that "quantitative easing" is not about helping the U.S. economy but rather about destroying U.S. debt and the dollar and daring China to sell its U.S. Treasuries back to the U.S. government. Rickards' comments come in the first of a two-part interview with KWN and you can listen to it here:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/11/6_J...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy to Become Coal Producer This Year
with 1.5 Billion Tonnes of Resource

Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX.V: PCY) announced on May 11 that it has entered into a mine services agreement with Leighton Asia Ltd. to begin coal production this year. Production will begin with a 250,000-tonne starter pit as planned in August, with production advancing to 2 million tonnes per year in 2011. Prophecy is fully funded to production and its management team includes John Morganti, Arnold Armstrong, and Rob McEwen.

For Prophecy's complete press release about its production plans, please visit:

http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_may11.php




Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16


Weekly Chartology: A Focus On Fund Flows Into Financial Stocks

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 05:26 AM PDT


As Goldman's David Kostin points out, this week's key capital flow observation had little to do with QE2 (which at $600 billion over 8 months, was actually less than the anticipated $500 billion over 6 months), which had a far greater impact on commodity prices as Zero Hedge had expected (and ES was down in gold for the week, and continues to be very much down for the year), and all to do with the Fed's "non-announcement" that it would allow financial firms to recommence dividends. This resulted in a spike in financial shares, which jumped the most in the prior week. In light of Friday afternoon's repeat announcement that a Federal agency (this time the Chicago FHLB) was following in the footsteps of the FRBNY, and claiming Rep and Warranty fraud over $375 billion in RMBS, banks won't be depleting their reserve funds any time soon. But all is fair in war and industry rotation, even if it makes no sense. More to the point, even Goldman advises clients this as nothing but a headfake: "We currently recommend a neutral weighting in Financials although we recognize the positive impact a round of dividend hikes will have on share prices. Our concern relates to the lack of loan demand, slim net interest margins as the yield curve flattens, restrictions on business activity from “Volcker Rule,” Basel 3 capital requirements, and the impact of Fin Reg." But since when did fundamentals matter? These days it is all a question of fund flows, typically those originating from the Federal Reserve.

Full weekly commentary and complete chartology from Goldman:

 


GS Weekly Kickstart


Bankruptcy of U.S. is ‘Mathematical Certainty,’ Says Former CEO of Nation's 10th Largest Bank

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 03:20 AM PDT

John Allison, who for two decades served as chairman and CEO of BB&T, the nation's 10th largest bank, told CNSNews.com it is a "mathematical certainty" that the United States government will go bankrupt unless it dramatically changes its fiscal direction.
Allison likened what he sees as the predictable future bankruptcy of the United States to the problems at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose insolvency he also said was foreseeable to those who studied their business practices and financial situation.
"I think the first thing we have to realize is where we're going and to face it objectively," Allison told CNSNews.com, when asked about the trillion-dollar-plus deficits the federal government has run for three straight years, the more than $13 trillion in federal debt, and the $61.9 trillion long-term shortfall the government faces (according to the analysis of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation) if the government is to pay all the benefits it has promised through entitlement programs.
More Here..


The Age Of The Dollar Is Drawing To A Close 


KWN Weekly Metals Wrap – Q E Too!

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 02:51 AM PDT

The largest hedgers and short sellers of gold and silver futures have been unwilling to sell aggressively into this important bull market for precious metals for most of the last two months. There was no change to that story in this week's COT data released Friday, but the report was for futures trader positioning for Tuesday, November 2, just before the results of the U.S. elections were known and just before the results of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision were announced. The Fed decided to launch a new round of $600b to $900b of Quantitative Easing (in monthly installments) by the middle of next year. Needless to say, there was ample food for thought and commentary for Eric King's wildly popular King World News "radio" programs this weekend, including our own contribution, which we will mention a little more about just below. ...


Haynes, Norcini, Arensberg review precious metals' week at KWN

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 02:28 AM PDT

10:23a ET Saturday, November 6, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

The weekly precious metals wrapup program at King World News has CMI Gold & Silver's Bill Haynes reporting that retail buying in the precious metals has not picked up; JSMineSet's Dan Norcini remarking that chart references from many years ago are really not relevant to gold and silver anymore; and the Got Gold Report's Gene Arensberg reporting that the large commercial traders in gold and silver are not increasing their short positions, indicating that they as yet have no confidence in lower prices. You can listen to the interviews at the King World News Internet site here:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/11/6_K...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy to Become Coal Producer This Year
with 1.5 Billion Tonnes of Resource

Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX.V: PCY) announced on May 11 that it has entered into a mine services agreement with Leighton Asia Ltd. to begin coal production this year. Production will begin with a 250,000-tonne starter pit as planned in August, with production advancing to 2 million tonnes per year in 2011. Prophecy is fully funded to production and its management team includes John Morganti, Arnold Armstrong, and Rob McEwen.

For Prophecy's complete press release about its production plans, please visit:

http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_may11.php




Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16


Haynes, Norcini, Arensberg review precious metals' week at KWN

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 02:28 AM PDT

10:23a ET Saturday, November 6, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

The weekly precious metals wrapup program at King World News has CMI Gold & Silver's Bill Haynes reporting that retail buying in the precious metals has not picked up; JSMineSet's Dan Norcini remarking that chart references from many years ago are really not relevant to gold and silver anymore; and the Got Gold Report's Gene Arensberg reporting that the large commercial traders in gold and silver are not increasing their short positions, indicating that they as yet have no confidence in lower prices. You can listen to the interviews at the King World News Internet site here:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/11/6_K...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy to Become Coal Producer This Year
with 1.5 Billion Tonnes of Resource

Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX.V: PCY) announced on May 11 that it has entered into a mine services agreement with Leighton Asia Ltd. to begin coal production this year. Production will begin with a 250,000-tonne starter pit as planned in August, with production advancing to 2 million tonnes per year in 2011. Prophecy is fully funded to production and its management team includes John Morganti, Arnold Armstrong, and Rob McEwen.

For Prophecy's complete press release about its production plans, please visit:

http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_may11.php




Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ForeClosureGate and The Economic Crisis, Spiralling Gold and Silver Prices

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 02:02 AM PDT

Foreclosuregate will soon again dominate the financial news along with the three class action lawsuits – one is a RICO suit, entered against JPMorgan Chase and HSBC for rigging the silver markets.


Silver Wheaton, The $100.00 Stock 

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 01:28 AM PDT

Having sold a number of stocks in order to acquire more of Silver Wheaton Corporation (SLW) stock on 09 August 2010 we are pleased to see that our new strategy is paying off handsomely. A quick look at the above chart shows that since making that particular purchase, we have in first place SLW followed by silver, gold, the miners and the much fancied juniors, all of which are not able to keep up with SLW. The progress has been remarkable up to the closing last week at $32.95 for gain of 65% in the price of this stock.


A Bale in the Wind

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 12:29 AM PDT

Raw cotton prices are now surging, but clothing costs to Western consumers have already risen...

YOU CAN BLAME speculators, poor weather, global demand, or the Federal Reserve if you like, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. Either way, sugar's up, wheat's up, and cotton's new record highs are starting to hurt Chinese textile makers.

Hence this bale in the wind. Clothing and footwear prices to UK consumers rose year-on-year in September for the first time since March 1992, hitting a two-year high in absolute terms.

Yet only now do central bankers fear deflation ahead. C'mon...where do they find these people?

"The longevity of what appears to be a speculative bubble in cotton prices," will determine 2011 profits at UK clothes retailer Next, it warned this week, adding that rising costs will force it to raise shop prices.

Over in China – which uses some 40% of the world's raw cotton output...and accounts for one-third of global textile exports – textile manufacturers face a "shortage of raw material", said industry group the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing meantime, with last month's record-high prices "endangering" their survival.

For our money here at BullionVault, we'll blame loose monetary policy...and not just from force of habit, either. The Pound Sterling, like the US Dollar, looks further than ever from paying a positive real rate of interest – leaving both savers and merchants to price scarce resources in ever-depreciating, ever-more generously supplied currencies.

Short of an about-turn in monetary policy, the near-halving of UK clothing and footwear prices since 1989 appears finished.

Shop – and invest – accordingly.

Got gold? Got silver? Start now with a gift of free metal, stored securely in Zurich, Switzerland, using BullionVault...



Currency Crisis Already Here

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 12:23 AM PDT

A currency crisis is under way. It's not a matter of if we'll have one or not. It's here...

MY BOSS,
Porter Stansberry, is always getting heat for his "crazy" claims and predictions, writes Steve Sjuggerud in his Daily Wealth email.

Porter's latest claim might be his "craziest" yet...

In late 2006, Porter predicted GM would go bankrupt. He looked at GM's debts and determined there was no way the automaker could avoid bankruptcy. He received stacks of hate mail calling him crazy and anti-American.

In 2007, Porter came out with another "crazy" prediction. He told a packed investment conference that government agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt. Porter claimed a small decrease in home prices could crush the leveraged home lenders.

"Fannie Mae go bankrupt? It could never happen," thought the audience.

You know how the stories of Fannie, Freddie, and GM played out. All three were disasters. All three went bankrupt.

I respect Porter for doing his research and not being afraid to take an unpopular stance...no matter what people will say about it. Which is why it's worth noting Porter's latest claim.

He says the US isn't just headed for a currency crisis. We're in one right now.

In a recent conference call with subscribers of Off the Record, Porter said this:

"Currently, government spending in the United States – just federal spending – is 44% of GDP, so that would put total government spending at excess of 50% of GDP, which had never happened outside of World War II. On the revenue side, federal government is 32% of GDP. So it's not even a misnomer anymore to say that we're living in a socialist state.

"Another way of seeing these numbers is to understand that right now, 44 million people are on food stamps. Twenty million people are employed either by the state governments or by the federal governments. Assuming there aren't a lot of state employees that are on food stamps – and there aren't, because government employees actually get paid better than private employees – more than 60 million people in the United States depend on the state for either their income or their food.

"There are only about 81 million households in the United States. So something on the order of two-thirds of all the families in the United States depend on the government either for their food or for their income...and that government is quite clearly broke.

"The total government debt in the United States per taxpayer is now in excess of $122,000. You have to understand that's per taxpayer. But about half of those people actually don't pay very much money at all in taxes. So the real burden on the productive citizen is enormous.

"And one final point I want to make about the sustainability of these debts: Not only are the debts impossible to repay, they're far too large. There's no way we could ever begin to repay them. But we're very close to approaching a point in time where they can no longer be financed."

Porter goes on to note how these debts are crushing the value of the Dollar...

"I don't think we're doing our readers any favors when we say a currency crisis 'might occur'...or we try to use language that is any less certain than we understand.

"A currency crisis is under way. It's not a matter of if we'll have one or not. We're in the midst of one. You don't see the price of silver go from $2.50 an ounce to $25 an ounce in a 10-year period unless something horrible has gone wrong with your monetary system. There's no other explanation for why you've seen not only gold and silver, but oil and corn and cotton and coal – everything that that's useful that's priced in Dollars – going straight up.

"That's not because there's been a sudden drought of silver mines. It's because the paper that you're denominating these assets in is collapsing."

Just this week, silver skyrocketed to a 30-year high... and gold is now closing in on $1400 an ounce. The Dollar is at its lowest low in more than a year. This is the market telling us that "crazy" is here. Despite these big price rises, Porter says it's not too late to protect your wealth with gold and silver, if you don't own any already.
 
What sounds crazy to most investors is often what works. You don't make money by sticking your head in the sand and listening to conventional wisdom from Wall Street and Washington DC.
 
Porter has a great history of being right on these things...and as the soaring price of gold and silver tell us, he's right on this.

Buy Silver and physical Gold Bullion at the tighest prices, and store your property in the safest locations for as little as $4 per month using BullionVault...



A Busy Week!

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 12:21 AM PDT

Are rising Gold Prices just a fall in the Dollar...?

AS WE WRITE, late Friday afternoon here in South Africa on 5 Nov. 2010, the Gold Price is making an assault on the $1400 level having been $1332 on Wednesday, the day of the Fed announcement, writes Julian Phillips of the GoldForecaster.

In the days ahead of that announcement the Dollar had been wavering between $1.38 and $1.40 against the Euro. After the announcement the US Dollar fell quickly down to $1.42 per Euro. Against the Pound Sterling, the Yen, the Swiss Franc and most other currencies, the Dollar has weakened too. But then the Dollar recovered and is sitting at $1.41. Recently gold has again moved in the opposite direction to the Dollar, until it ran up in the Euro vigorously, but has this now changed again? Can there be more to the rise in gold than just the fall in the Dollar?

We believe so, because far more than QE2 happened this week.

In the run-up to and after the announcements of the results of the US mid-term elections the Gold Price barely moved. On the surface we can therefore conclude that the mid-term US elections did not affect the Gold Price. But whether the Republicans or the Democrats won is not an issue for the gold market. What is an issue for precious metals is whether the US government direct the monetary area sufficiently to invigorate the US economy and – should they wish to do so – strengthen the US Dollar?

On the contrary. We found the mid-term result pointed to an emasculation of the government's power on the monetary front. Far too much of a burden has fallen on the shoulders of the Federal Reserve, an institution with only limited powers to resuscitate the US economy. Government should shoulder that role, supported in this by the Fed. Government does not appear to now have the capacity to resolve the economic problems of the US This tells us that the enormous steps needed to be taken to strengthen the US Dollar are not going to be taken, so a fall in the US Dollar is widely expected.

The difference for the Dollar now is that its fall can be precipitous and not simply a repeat of the fall in the last two years. Control over the Dollar's value for the next two years appears to have slipped from the grasp of the US monetary authorities. This is extremely positive for the Gold Price.

Ahead of the Fed's QE2 announcement, a 'bear raid' on gold was mounted that had the Gold Price drop from $1358 down to $1332 in a steep dive that shook the weak holders and triggered more than a few 'stop loss' positions. Ordinarily, this would have been enough to deter investors, but it happened when the market was seeing thin volumes of trade, hence the size of the fall. On the announcement, these bears received a very sharp, silver-coated golden horn in the sensitive parts. The Gold Price rose like a space shuttle, breaking up through the fifties and sixties and on through resistance at $1370. Right now we are tapping $1400 per ounce.

Undoubtedly the activity of buyers looking for physical Gold Bullion from most gold markets in the world was the primary driver. But add to this the scramble of short covering in New York's derivative Comex Gold Futures market that is also going on. The short covering comes not only from those who went short ahead of the announcement, but from longer-term shorts, realizing that the break-out to new levels is well founded on fundamental factors. The announcement from the Fed re-established those fundamentals. However, a greater and greater proportion of Gold Investment buying globally is due to a growing fear of the global currency system itself.

What are the ramifications of the Fed's announcement? The entire financial world had been waiting for weeks for the Fed to make this announcement. It was important because it directly affects the value of the Dollar inside and outside the US While the US does not intend to cause a devaluation that will enhance the international competitiveness of the US, that is what is happening. That is how the rest of the world will see it. They will take action in their own interests to protect themselves.

Foreign competitors have to act, or see themselves suffer as the US has been doing for some time now. This will have three primary effects on the global economy:
  • First, the United States will lose the cooperation they had hoped for from China and other nations whom they asked to let their currencies rise but who will now suffer from a lower Dollar. Global monetary cooperation, sorely needed now, will decay. Currency crises in different nations will be inevitable as they each strive to protect their own interests;
  • Foreign investment capital now channeled into the US (and badly needed) will accelerate its diversification from the Dollar. This will accelerate the fall of the Dollar and see capital exit the US. To the extent this happens it will act as a counter to QE2;
  • It will undermine the Dollar's global hegemony, which in itself will create considerably more uncertainty as to exchange rates and values.
Buy Gold at the lowest prices, store it in the safest locations – start with this free gram at BullionVault now...



Tombstone of Sound Money

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 12:16 AM PDT

"We had to do this, there was no choice but to leave our successors to sort out the mess..."

So the BERNANKE FED
has finally launched its next great economic experiment, undertaking to buy some $600 billion in US Treasuries over the next eight months, in addition to acquiring an estimated $250-300 billion more by way of reinvested MBS proceeds, writes Sean Corrigan at the Cobden Centre.

Monetization on this scale will mean that Tim Geithner (or whoever may end up replacing him in the aftermath of the mid-term massacre) can look forward to sending the entire bill for the Federal deficit straight to the Marriner Eccles building and not having to fret about finding a real investor to cover any part of that monstrous shortfall.

Nor will he have to worry any further about being overly polite to those hectoring foreign central bankers to whom he could otherwise have expected to flog another $400 billion or so, over the same period. Now, backed by the might of the domestic printing press, he can affect a posture of unbridled imperial arrogance in his dealings with his fractious creditors, secure in the knowledge that he can henceforth dispense with their services as committed takers of Uncle Sam's prolific IOUs.

But never fear, as Chairman Bernanke rushed straight from the inner sanctum to assure us via a Washington Post op-ed, none of this carries any danger of sparking 'significant' increases in inflation – a weasel-worded categorization which, one presumes, is to be set against the judiciously-measured increases nakedly intended as part of his contrivance to lower real interest rates.

Even more brazenly, Blackhawk Ben used his allotted column inches to enshrine the infamous 'Greenspan Put' explicitly into official policy by writing that:
"This approach [of buying longer-term securities] eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action. Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion."
Underpinning this apotheosis of moral hazard (you know, the thing that got us into this mess in the first place), Bernanke further emphasized the Fed's determination to keep Wall Street in bonuses by avowing that:
"We will review the purchase program regularly to ensure it is working as intended and to assess whether adjustments are needed as economic conditions change."
The madness has indeed progressed greatly from a passive observance of the false precepts of the Jackson Hole doctrine – whereby the FRB should play the role of Three Wise Monkeys in the face of a burgeoning asset bubble – to more of a Jackson Hose approach, whereby it judges policy to be successful only when it has created just such a bubble in the course of its own deliberate actions!

So the cycle of error is perpetuated, with cause and effect both being confounded and wrongly assumed to form an easily reversible reaction. The fact that rising real asset prices are a result of increasing prosperity no more guarantees that their prior, artificial inflation will subsequently augment that same prosperity than does the act of spraying your driver with champagne while he still sits on the grid make him a certainty for a podium place at the race's conclusion.

As Sir Dudley North wrote, as long ago as 1691, in his 'Discourse upon Trade':
"It will be found, that as plenty makes cheapness in other things, as Corn, Wool, &c. when they come to Market in greater Quantities than there are Buyers to deal for, the Price will fall; so if there be more Lenders than Borrowers, Interest will also fall; wherefore it is not low Interest makes Trade, but Trade increasing, the Stock [wealth] of the Nation makes Interest low.

"It is said, that in Holland Interest is lower than in England. I answer, It is because their Stock is greater than ours. Thus when all things are considered, it will be found best for the Nation to leave the Borrowers and the Lender to make their own Bargains, according to the Circumstances they lie under; and in so doing you will follow the course of the wise Hollanders, so often quoted on this account: and the consequences will be, that when the Nation thrives, and grows rich, Money will be to be had upon good terms, but the clean contrary will fall out, when the Nation grows poorer and poorer."
Not that we expect such tested wisdom to carry much weight in the rarefied, DSGE Councils of the Mighty today. Consequently, not the least of Bernanke's many mistakes in implementing this shallow conjuror's trick is the conflation of a higher nominal price for some claims to goods with that greater command over valuable, real resources to which the claims pertain which is actually the only true measure of 'wealth'.

Simply to pump in money in order to swell the price of a parcel of farmland is not to generate any greater cultivable acreage, nor to boost the yield of the land already in existence and, hence, is not to enhance its ability to better nourish its owners or their customers. If that were only the case, we could end Man's long battle with poverty at a stroke, simply by pencilling in a few extra, terminal zeros on the denominations of all our banknotes – a palpable fantasy by which ex-Bank of England MPC member Willem Buiter, for one, seems to be deliriously and incurably gripped.

Assets, after all, are claims upon actual or potential streams of an income which must never be judged solely in pecuniary terms but rather on the basis of what it contributes to the satisfaction of material human wants. If that stream of income is unaltered, the price of the asset can only make a difference to the owner's standard of living if parts of it are broken off and sold to another, so realising an otherwise entirely notional increase.

Even then, the asset-seller's immediate material gain must come at the cost of the buyer's deferred benefit, unless this latter avoids such a temporary sacrifice by borrowing some newly-created, 'fictional capital' with which to make the purchase. Should he do this, however, it must be seen that he is only helping transfer the inflation from one involving the asset which he buys to one concerning the real goods which his seller wishes to acquire in its place.

The seller may not realise it, under the confusion of money illusion, but what he has, in fact consumed is some of his hard-won real capital. The buyer, too, seduced by the allures of a bull market, is helping to drive down the real translatable value of his own purchase in the same measure as he is pushing up its nominal cost.

Though this process may take some time to come to fruition – and though winners and losers may not be so easily disentangled, especially where the process is protracted and where titles changes hands many times at escalating prices – herein lies the essential truth of the Austrian contention that while we may be forced to take our losses in the Bust, we actually make them in the preceding Boom.

Unchallenged here goes the usual canard that in some strange way, 'wealth' is about destruction, not generation; i.e., that what the world is lacking is an orgy of consumption of the most final, exhaustive kind and so, if we can once inveigle or coerce people into burning, rather than building, things by fooling them as to how well off they are, economic 'recovery' will at last be assured.

Perhaps we should just impose candlelight and thatched roofs, ban fire insurance, and outlaw smoke alarms by way of a 'stimulus package'.

What Bernanke and the other Nomenklatura fail to appreciate is that what must be facilitated is the selling, not the buying, of valued goods and services at a price others are willing to pay: that this is the key to wealth creation for, by this means, the vendor furnishes himself with the wherewithal to buy any of the myriad non-competing goods available to him through the efforts of all his possible counterparties while allowing him to secure whatever inputs are necessary for him to repeat this mutually enriching process in the future.

Sometimes this, perforce, must include selling at a lower price than before – a necessity utterly abjured by the mainstream as comprising a maelstrom of 'deflation', a condition erroneously presumed to be coterminous with a self-aggravating depression.

The truth is that no amount of a macromancy aimed at shifting the monetary valuations of asset holdings can have more than a passing influence on such a continually evolving, but also continually renewing, dynamic of want-satisfactions – of the earning and enjoyment of an income.

One further unanswered question is whether the FRB moves can increase the value of US assets in anything other than the chronically depreciating Dollars to which they are giving rise. If not, we are only adding another inflationary veil of illusion over a loss of, not a gain in, the value of financial capital. The undeniable fact that record low yields have done nothing to move T-Note futures beyond a trade-weighted-index-adjusted, 28-year mean, while the TWI-adjusted S&P500 labours where it was back in the mid-90s, suggests this is no trivial challenge to overcome.

We might also ask whether higher asset prices will help the poor, huddled masses who have so few savings to begin with or whether lowered mortgage rates can do much to help those suffering a deficit of collateral value (i.e., negative equity) against which to refinance. Yes, it may allow some fixed-value debts to be discharged through the surrender of such newly-inflated claims as one may hold, but this is nothing which a direct renegotiation between borrow and lender could not achieve with far less risk of further distorting the overall capital structure of the economy.

If we are to place any credence in the various surveys of owners and executives at the nation's businesses, large and small, they are sending a clear message that it is not so much the availability or the pricing of credit (or, by extension, of equity) funding that is holding them back, as much as their pervading sense of uncertainty as to what stunt their rulers and regulators will pull next and what the effect of such manoeuvres will be on them and their customers and so on their own chances of turning a profit on the capital they put at risk.

The fact that the Fed has made its programme so blatantly open-ended and expediency-driven has already triggered talk of an eventual QEIII and, moreover, has so far dispelled fears that the market impact would be one of ennui shading into disappointment, replacing this with what Mohamed El-Erian called "turbo-charging the direct policy impact before those purchases have even been specified."

But while fine and dandy for the wealth shufflers on Wall St., for the wealth creators on Main, this could be counterproductive for the very reason alluded to in the preceding paragraph: viz., that in an economy suffering from that widespread disco-ordination of means and ends, prices and costs, which has been engendered in the Boom and then made dispiritingly concrete by the application of so many ill-advised anti-recession measures taken in its aftermath, only greater disco-ordination lies in store – not least through the pestilential effects of wild foreign exchange swings which are being disseminated across the global trading network like a Genoese hold full of black rats, or the surge in input costs which the incipient Flucht in die Sachwerte and out of the Greenback is everywhere now provoking.

Whatever our deeper misgivings, by its own rather perverted lights, the announcement has, however, enjoyed an undeniable initial success...
  • In local currencies, the DAX is at its highest since summer 2008, the Dow at its best since the LEH-AIG collapse;
  • The Sensex, the KLCI, the JCI, the Philippines Composite, the Turkish 100, the Mexican Bolsa, the Chilean IGPA, and the Bovespa are all at, or close to making, new all-time highs;
  • Stock volatility has dropped to its lowest since the halcyon days of April; the correlation index (which tends to spike in bearish periods) is setting new post-Crisis lows, and the cumulative Advance/Decline line has never been better.
  • Junk bond yields are within a whisker of a five-year low of 7% while investment-grade Dollar debt out to around seven years is hitting a new, generational nadir;
  • Real yields out to 30-years are plumbing the depths too, if only – at the longer end – thanks to resurgent break-even inflation components;
  • The Dollar is again weaker across the board and soy, corn, canola, cotton, coffee, copper, sugar, orange juice, aluminium, silver, gold, and palladium are soaring skyward just like the emerging-market stock markets.
In defiance of the injunction, 'de mortuis nil nisi bonum', we can only recall the words of then-retired BOE Governor Eddie George to the Treasury Select Committee in March of 2007 – four years after he had handed the baton seamlessly onto his willing deputy Mervyn King and just as the first cracks were appearing in the precarious CDO-sub-prime-LBO superstructure he and Alan Greenspan had helped to put in place after the Tech Bubble in which they were also instrumental:
"You have to step back from this. You have to recognize that when you're in an environment of economic weakness at the beginning of this decade, you only have two alternatives of sustaining demand. One was public spending, the other was consumption. We knew we were having to stimulate consumer spending. We knew we pushed it up to levels which couldn't be sustained. That pushed up house prices. It increased household debt. My legacy to my successors has been, sort this out. We didn't have much of a choice."
If you listen closely, you can hear the stonemasons, already chiselling out Ben Bernanke's legacy on the tombstone of sound money – and possibly on the mausoleum of Dollar hegemony. It will be left to all of us to mourn the inheritance he has bequeathed us in his lunatic's charter of 'quantitative easing' and Keynesianism à outrance.

What is left to be said? Markets are pricing on a rush from Dollars first and on a response to specifics second. The ballistic nature of what this has wrought can be seen in the fact that even the Silver-to-Gold Price ratio has risen at an annualised rate of 223% since Bernanke lit the blue touchpaper under the rocket of Risk in mid-August. Since the end of June, Agriculture is up an annualized 187%, a climb exactly matched by Base Metals and lagged (147% annualized) by a still impressive Energy sub-component since his incendiary speech. For their part, no longer the star turn, but still impressive, Precious Metals have surged at a 110% rate so far in the second-half of 2010, with commodity equities (as per the TR/Jeffries index) topping them with gains at a 140% pace.

Obviously, these and many other markets are in a bubble – although its highly generalized nature tells us that this is the result not of any segmented outbreak of insanity as in 2008's oil market, but rather of an anti-bubble in the world's main medium of exchange, the USD – an anti-bubble being knowingly and intentionally fomented by those charged with its stewardship.

In such a world, it is difficult to know how far beyond the bounds of rationality things can run, particularly when far too many professional investors have been late to the party and when there may be a reckoning orders of magnitude greater of those who are desperate to restore their depleted fortunes by gambling that the blind Tyche can be cajoled by the central bank into favouring them, just this one last time, please. The only thing of which we can be certain is that the malign, unintended consequences of this latest assault on property rights and market pricing will far outweigh any purported good its perpetrators can ever suppose it will achieve.

Get the safest gold at the lowest prices using the award-winning, mining-industry backed world No.1 online, BullionVault...



Denying AGW makes you poor and stupid

Posted: 06 Nov 2010 12:05 AM PDT

Back in 2005 AGW holocaust provokers and slanderous goofballs Steve Milloy and Tom Borelli of the infamous AGW denial site junkscience dot com attacked Max and Stacy in the press and launched the Free Enterprise Action Fund – while we were pushing gold.

Five years later the results are in; their fund has folded* with a loss – while gold has increased in value by 300% . . . and maxkeiser dot com now has 10 times the traffic of junkscience dot com.

A simple analysis of the demographic information comparing the two sites on Alexa shows that maxkeiser dot com viewers are richer (thanks to that gold they've been buying) and more educated (thanks to avoiding junkscience and other Koch propaganda). The choice is simple: rich and smart vs. poor and stupid.

*After being called the Stupid Investment of the Week by MarketWatch.com, FEAR merged in July of 2009 into the Congressional Effect Fund

page from a recent Koch Industries 10-K


Federal Reserve Inflating Bubbles Pushing Agri-Foods to New Highs

Posted: 05 Nov 2010 11:09 PM PDT

Readily acknowledged is that first action of new U.S. Congress should be to call for resignations of all members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.. Their irresponsible acts to date have clearly violated their mandate to provide a healthy economic environment. With Federal Reserve Bubble III, manifesting itself in the inflated and unnatural values for non dollar currencies, distorting the global economic system, they must be removed immediately and most recent policy action nullified.


Gold and Metal Miners Takeovers Talk

Posted: 05 Nov 2010 09:43 PM PDT

Encompass Funds Portfolio Manager Marshall Berol and Analyst Kevin Puil spend a lot of time examining junior mining companies for investment opportunities and they're pretty good at it. The Encompass Fund was up 139% in 2009 and it's up another 21% so far this year. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, we talk to Marshall and Kevin about how they choose junior gold stocks and whether or not the growing number of takeovers is influencing their decisions.


The Dollar is toast

Posted: 05 Nov 2010 08:29 PM PDT

Max Keiser on Fraudulent Practices of Debt Collectors, the IMF, and Ireland and Greece's Predicament

Posted: 05 Nov 2010 08:06 PM PDT

Funny, in a tragic way, video.  Apparently there is a debt collection agency that creates a "fake court" to intimidate people into paying their debts.  But Max doesn't leave it at that.  He goes on to compare this practice to the entire financial industry - all the way up to the IMF and the "fake" fiat currency we use as money today.  A financial industry based on fakeness.

But first, a few relevant quotes, from influential people, on the monetary system we have today:

"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value ---- zero."

Voltaire (1694-1778)

"I sincerely believe ... that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale."

Thomas Jefferson

"The decrease in purchasing power incurred by holders of money due to inflation imparts gains to the issuers of money--."

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank,
Review, Nov. 1975, p.22


"Without the confidence factor, many believe a paper money system is liable to collapse eventually."

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia,
Gold, p. 10


"Commercial banks create checkbook money whenever they grant a loan, simply by adding new deposit dollars in accounts on their books in exchange for a borrower's IOU."

Federal reserve Bank of New York, 
I Bet You Thought
, p.19


"Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce."

US President James Garfield

"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalistic System was to debauch the currency. . .  Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million can diagnose."

John Maynard Keynes, 
The Economic Consequences of the Peace
,
1920, page 235ff


"Banks lend by creating credit. They create the means of payment out of nothing."

Ralph M. Hawtrey,
former Secretary of Treasury,
England


"Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money and control credit, and with a flick of a pen they will create enough to buy it back."

Sir Josiah Stamp, former President,
Bank of England


"All the perplexities, confusion and distresses in America arise not from defects in the constitution or confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, as much from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation."

John Adams, letter to
Thomas Jefferson



Silver Standard Resources CEO Discusses Q3 2010 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Posted: 05 Nov 2010 04:10 PM PDT

Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI)

Q3 2010 Earnings Call Transcript

November 5, 2010 11:00 am ET


Complete Story »


Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain About 3% and 9% on the Week

Posted: 05 Nov 2010 04:00 PM PDT

Gold climbed to a new record high of $1394.20 in after hours access trade yesterday before it fell back off in Asia and London to as low as $1373.75 immediately following the release of this morning's jobs report, but it then rallied to a new record high of $1397.89 in New York and ended with a gain of 1.07%. Silver climbed to a new 30-year high of $26.635 in early Asian trade before it fell back to $25.858 in early New York trade, but it also climbed back higher for most of the rest of trade and ended near its late morning high of $26.905 with a gain of 3.08% at a new 30-year high.


In The News Today

Posted: 05 Nov 2010 01:50 PM PDT

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

Four so far this weekend.

Bank Closing Information – November 5, 2010
These links contain useful information for the customers and vendors of these closed banks.

First Vietnamese American Bank, Westminster, CA
Pierce Commercial Bank, Tacoma, WA
Western Commercial Bank, Woodland Hills, CA
K Bank, Randallstown, MD

http://www.fdic.gov/

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

What OTC derivatives do not do to the international investment banks, litigation will.
–JSMineset.com, 2006

None of these fraud ridden instruments can stand the light of day that ligation threatens to shine on them.

Investors sue Citigroup over toxic mortgage bonds

Citigroup Inc. is being sued by big investors that bought the bank's toxic mortgage bonds during the run-up to the financial crisis.

New York-based Citigroup said in a regulatory filing Friday that Charles Schwab Corp., the Federal Home Loan Banks of Chicago and Indianapolis, Cambridge Place Investment Management and others filed the lawsuits beginning in July. The suits allege that Citigroup made misstatements or omissions related to mortgage investments that it sold.

The New York-based company funded subprime loans, repurchased and pooled them, then sliced the pools into securities that could be resold to investors.

The trillions of dollars in the securities produced by Wall Street turned out to be toxic. When home prices stopped rising and borrowers couldn't repay, no one knew how much the bonds were worth. The uncertainty was so widespread that it helped trigger a global credit crisis in 2008.

The investors suing Citigroup say the bank misled them about the quality of the mortgages in its bonds. They want courts to make Citigroup buy back the investments at full price, and to assess other damages.

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

The longest train wreck in US history.

Fannie seeks $2.5 billion from U.S. after 3rd-quarter loss
Fri Nov 5, 2010 5:12pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB), the largest provider of financing for U.S. residential mortgages, on Friday said it lost $3.5 billion in the third quarter on foreclosure and other credit expenses, sending it to the U.S. Treasury for more capital.

The government-sponsored company said it would need $2.5 billion from Treasury to cover a $2.4 billion net worth deficit. More than 85 percent of that shortfall was dividend payments back to Treasury, it said in a statement.

Fannie Mae said credit-related expenses, which include provisions for losses and foreclosed property expense, rose to $5.6 billion in the quarter from $4.9 billion in the second quarter. Among factors, it lowered the value of repossessed homes it owns, it said.

Revenue increased 13 percent to $5.1 billion in the quarter as interest income on its portfolio rose.

Fannie Mae and rival Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB) are at a crossroads where Congress is debating changes to their businesses — or their very existence — after decades of providing the lion's share of U.S. home loan funding. Both political parties have said their current models that are costing taxpayers to billions of dollars must be abolished though are split on the level of future government support.

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

If counsel for this action does not settle out of court, as is usual, then a new light will be focused on the facts.

Kaplan Fox Sues JP Morgan and HSBC on Behalf of Investors for Silver Futures and Options Contract Losses Caused by Market Manipulation
Nov 04, 2010 12:47 ET

NEW YORK, NY–(Marketwire – November 4, 2010) -  On November 2, 2010, Kaplan Fox & Kilsheimer LLP (www.kaplanfox.com), a leading plaintiffs' firm, filed a class action complaint in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, on behalf of an individual investor, against JP Morgan Chase and HSBC in connection with their alleged conspiracy and manipulation of the market for silver futures and options contracts traded on COMEX. To view a copy of the complaint, please click here.

The complaint alleges that around June 2008, when JP Morgan acquired Bear Stearns, including Bear Stearns' short positions in silver futures, JP Morgan and HSBC commenced a conspiracy to manipulate, and did manipulate, the market for silver futures and options contracts on COMEX. Specifically, the complaint alleges that around this time, JP Morgan and HSBC, pursuant to their conspiracy, acquired massive short positions on silver futures contracts in an effort to artificially depress the price of the silver futures market. The defendants realized substantial illegal profits in connection with their scheme, while investors who had no knowledge of the scheme, lost substantial amounts of money because of the defendants' conduct.

The complaint further alleges that the defendants' illegal scheme continued until around March 2010, when a metals trader based in London, publicly exposed the scheme. This trader has reported the scheme to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC"), and both the CFTC and the Antitrust Division of the United States Department of Justice are investigating the alleged conspiratorial and manipulative activities of the defendants.

If you have any information concerning any of the defendants' conduct, or wish to learn more about the litigation, please contact Kaplan Fox attorneys Robert N. Kaplan or Jason A. Zweig at (800) 290-1952.

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

Against all odds, what we have told you here about gold has come to fruition.

Against all odds and the screams of many in the community and all that are not, what I feel about the future of the gold price will come to fruition. Gold will go to $1650 and beyond.

There is still a set of circumstances that have the power to make $1650 a reality before January 14th, 2011. Regardless, gold is going to and above $1650 very soon.

Scroll down to see our four legged pal for the day that is truly "GOLDEN."

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Jim Sinclair's Commentary

Here is the truth. John not only defines reality, but if and when a true change takes place you will see it on his site first. Isn't that enough reason to pay John his small fee?

Where is the beef? His long report is the location of the beef.

- Baloney Payroll-Employment Data: Seasonal Adjustments Become Primary Driver of Jobs Creation? 
- October Household-Survey Employment Fell 330,000 
- October Unemployment Rates: 9.6% (U.3), 17.0% (U.6), 22.5% (SGS) 
- Fed Move to Debase U.S. Dollar Will Generate Higher Inflation But No Recovery 
- Election Results Do Not Alter Basic Economic or Inflation Outlooks

http://www.shadowstats.com/

 

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

If you do the crime, you do not do the time, you simply pay. If you pay less than all of what you made that is a good business practice today.

A kid in the ghetto boosts a car and goes to Attica State Penitentiary for 8 years. Where is the equal application of the law? It simply isn't in this time period, the darkest period of finance in human history.

Berger Group Charged With Fraud in Iraq, Afghanistan
By David Voreacos – Nov 5, 2010 8:49 AM MT

Louis Berger Group Inc., a New Jersey-based engineering consulting firm, was charged with fraudulently overbilling the U.S. by more than $10 million on reconstruction contracts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

U.S. prosecutors agreed to defer prosecution of the case, and the company will pay an $18.7 million criminal penalty and reform its practices under a monitor, according to documents filed today in federal court in Newark, New Jersey. Prosecutors will dismiss the case in two years so long as the company fulfills a series of promises.

The closely held company, based in Morristown, New Jersey, had revenue of $694 million last year and has 5,000 employees in 60 countries, according to its website. As part of its settlement, the company admitted that it submitted inflated overhead rates to the U.S. Agency International Development.

Louis Berger International, a unit of Louis Berger Group, got about $736 million to modernize a power system and rehabilitate the Kajakai Dam in Afghanistan. The company won the second-most contracts for reconstruction work in Afghanistan over a three-year period ended in 2009, according to an Oct. 27 report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction.

From 1999 to 2007, former executives submitted "false, fictitious and fraudulent overhead rates for indirect costs and correspondingly resulted in overpayments by the government in excess of $10 million," the company admitted as part of its deferred-prosecution agreement.

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

David Stockman backs Ron Paul's committee. Check out the video.

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

Just say no and the fraudulent papers remain government secrets.

ECB Rejects Request for Greek Swap Files, Citing `Acute' Risks
By Elisa Martinuzzi, Alan Katz and Gabi Thesing – Nov 5, 2010 12:29 AM PT

The European Central Bank refused to disclose internal documents showing how Greece used derivatives to hide its government debt because of the "acute" risk of roiling markets, President Jean-Claude Trichet said.

The ECB turned down a request and an appeal by Bloomberg News to release two briefing documents officials drafted for the central bank's six-member Executive Board in Frankfurt this year. The notes outline how Greece used the swaps to hide its borrowings, according to a March 3 note attached to the papers and obtained by Bloomberg News.

"The information contained in the two documents would undermine the public confidence as regards the effective conduct of economic policy," Trichet wrote in an Oct. 21 letter in which he rejected the appeal. Disclosure "bears, in the current very vulnerable market environment, the substantial and acute risk of adding to volatility and instability."

The ECB is withholding the information six months after the European Union and International Monetary Fund led a 110 billion-euro bailout ($154 billion) for Greece. The government didn't originally disclose the swaps, which were designed to help it comply with the deficit and debt rules it agreed to meet when it joined the euro in 2001. Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, is still trying to work out how Greece hid the deficit.

The Greek swaps fueled a financial crisis that threatened the breakup of the region's currency. The government now says the swaps, some of which were arranged by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., may have caused "long-term damage" for taxpayers.

More…


Yamana Gold CEO Discusses Q3 2010 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Posted: 05 Nov 2010 12:59 PM PDT

Yamana Gold, Inc. (AUY)

Q3 2010 Earnings Call

November 4, 2010 11:00 a.m. ET


Complete Story »


Royal Gold CEO Discusses F1Q2011 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Posted: 05 Nov 2010 11:49 AM PDT

Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD)

F1Q2011 (Qtr End 09/30/10) Earnings Conference Call

November 4, 2010 12:00 PM ET


Complete Story »


Gold Daily Chart

Posted: 05 Nov 2010 11:43 AM PDT


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

FRIDAY Market Excerpts

Posted: 05 Nov 2010 10:28 AM PDT

Gold reverses higher, ends record setting week up 3%

The COMEX December gold futures contract closed up $14.60 Friday at $1397.70, trading between $1371.90 and $1398.00

November 5, p.m. excerpts:
(from Marketwatch)
Gold futures rallied to a fresh record high, settling less than $3 away from $1,400 an ounce a day after their biggest one-day gain in nearly 20 months. In inflation-adjusted terms, however, gold is still far from its January 1980 record of $875 an ounce. Gold would have to trade around $2,300 an ounce to make up for three decades of inflation. For now, however, quantitative easing was giving investors a fresh reason to sell the dollar and seek a hedge against inflation in gold…more
(from Bloomberg)
bull gold market"Markets are realizing the impact of quantitative easing is a tremendous weakening of the dollar," said Frank McGhee, head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services. "Ultimately, the Fed is slugging it out to make our currency as cheap as possible. That's extremely bullish for gold." Gold futures for December delivery rose 1.1%, capping a 3% gain for this week. The metal has rallied 28% this year, heading for its 10th straight annual gain. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report today that gold may reach $1,650 in the next 12 months…more
(from TheStreet)
Brian Hicks, CIO of Global Investors Global Resources Fund, sees gold prices going higher six, 12 and even 18 months from now. "It is difficult to say what will happen in the short term," Hicks told TheStreet on Thursday. "But if you look at all the components that are driving gold — deficit spending, excess liquidity being pumped into the system by the Fed — we continue to see more and more money flowing into the gold sector. And it is still relatively small versus other asset classes and you can see higher prices for gold in the horizon."…more
(from Dow Jones)
Friday's data showing that U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by a greater-than-expected 151,000 last month initially pressured gold and supported the dollar. But as participants dug further into the data they became less optimistic, with the unemployment rate remaining at a lofty 9.6% in October as about 14.8 million people who would like to work can't get a job. As the greenback pared its gains, gold moved into positive territory and gained momentum from there…more
(from Reuters)
Gold's rally to a record came despite the fact that the dollar was up almost 1% on the day. "Bullion investors are ignoring what the dollar is doing right now and looking more at what the Fed is doing, knowing it's inflationary for the market regardless of what it does," said Jeff Pritchard, broker at Altavest Trading. David Thurtell, analyst at Citi, noted that "the key implication of [quantitative easing] measures is that major currencies — particularly the U.S. dollar — are likely to lose value relative to 'alternative' currencies such as gold."…more

see full news, 24-hr newswire…


Gold targets new highs this year and next

Posted: 05 Nov 2010 09:32 AM PDT

By Jan Harvey
11/06/2010 (Reuters) — The Federal Reserve's $600 billion quantitative easing package has reinforced the medium-term argument for holding gold, as it pushes the dollar firmly onto a downward path and raises the risk of inflation.

… Longer term, it is set to further underpin the precious metal's rally to record highs.

"This is going to play out bullishly for the precious metals," said Credit Suisse analyst Tom Kendall, pointing to renewed weakness in the dollar after the statement.

"The announcement itself was broadly in line with market consensus, but it still leaves an air of uncertainty in terms of the fact that the Fed will review the scale and timing of this additional QE. That leaves the potential for further surprises as we go forwards."

… The possibility of further adjustments to the level of QE could inject even more volatility into the dollar, with Commerzbank saying in a note that the policy could prove a "bottomless pit".

"Things are likely to become increasingly uncomfortable for the US dollar, and it only seems a matter of time until EUR-USD breaches its recent high at 1.4160," it said.

The QE measures will also underline current tensions in the currency markets. Policymakers in key emerging markets, including BRIC powerhouses China and Brazil, have already pledged to implement fresh measures to curb capital inflows in response to the Fed.

… "Gold is not a paper currency, it is nobody else's liability, it is not a promise to pay by a bank and it's something you can't print, whereas dollar bills and other paper currencies you just turn the printing press on," said Evy Hambro, manager of BlackRock's Gold & General Fund.

[source]


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