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- Lassonde lambasts miners, industry for failures in gold hunting
- Five tips to uncover 2013's "gold stock of the year"
- Forget what you've heard... There are now four classes in America
- Why one group of junior gold stocks could rally far more than the rest
- Bank of America System Crashes? Online Banking & Debit Cards Down Nationwide
- “End of an Era” for Gold as S&P 500 Records Best January Since 1997
- Gold Run? 43 Tonnes of Gold Stand for February Delivery on 1st Notice Day
- Credit Suisse calls an end to gold's run as S&P 500 records best Jan since '97
- It's All About Money Flows Folks
- Silver Will Be Top PM Performer in 2013
- Final bottom in gold stocks coming
- Jumping exports give silver impetus in India
- Bill Gross - Credit Supernova!
- Gold firms ahead of U.S. payrolls data
- Gold outlook for the following months
- Goldilocks Ends & ‘Currency Wars’ Begin
- Another warning of impending bondpocalypse
- "End of an era" for gold as S&P 500 records best January since 1997
- Jim Sinclair: Cartel Attempting to Shake Free Real Gold in the Cash Market!
- Gold: Follow the man in the street…and the souk
- $114 billion dollars in cash was withdrawn from the nation’s largest banks in the last thirty days… Much of it going into Gold and Silver.
- Collecting antique Silver coins
- Normalcy Bias
- Caption Contest Friday!
- Gold deliveries rise to near-record for February futures
- Barrick Gold starts process to sell energy unit
- The swinging gold sentiments pendulum
- JPMorgan Sees Gold At $1,800 By Mid 2013 As South Africa “In Crisis” And “Escalating Instability” In Middle East
- US Mint Jan Gold coin sales hit 140,000 ounces
- Germany and Gold Holdings
- Gold price look to close the week on a positive note as unemployment starts to rise again in the US
- JPMorgan sees gold at $1,800 by mid-2013 as South Africa in crisis
- Gold & Silver Spike on NFP Disappointment
- 2013 Silver American Eagles As Low As $2.79 Over Spot!!
- India fiscal deficit widens on gold imports
- JPMorgan Sees Gold At $1,800 By Mid 2013 As South Africa “In Crisis” And “Escalating Ins
- Jan NFP: + 157,000, Unemployment Rate At 7.9%
- Une mini-révolution monétaire en Angola
- Ghana officially denies Iran Gold deal
| Lassonde lambasts miners, industry for failures in gold hunting Posted: 01 Feb 2013 08:26 PM PST Pierre Lassonde calls on mining industry to fund research into new mining and exploration technologies that could create "paradigm shift" and fuel a much needed round of gold discoveries. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Five tips to uncover 2013's "gold stock of the year" Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:56 PM PST From Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst, Casey Research: Is your precious-metals portfolio ready for 2013? We want to get positioned in the best performers ahead of the industry's next big move to maximize profit while minimizing risk. Some readers may question if gold stocks really have snapped out of their funk. We could discuss this topic for many pages, but the bottom line for us at Casey Research is simple: if you believe gold and silver prices are going higher, then equity prices will follow. Precious metals are headed higher for reasons we've outlined before: intractable levels of government debt, reckless deficit spending, and worldwide money printing. GDP growth won't be near strong enough to meet future liabilities, and neither politicians nor the public will agree to austerity measures that will be austere enough. Gold and silver will move higher as the value of currencies declines, as governments attempt to pay existing and future obligations. With that in mind, some stocks will certainly do better than others. Recall 2011, when gold continued higher while stocks as a group performed poorly. However, there were still profits to be made... More on gold stocks:       | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Forget what you've heard... There are now four classes in America Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:56 PM PST From Charles Hugh Smith: In the conventional view, America's socioeconomic classes are divided by income and wealth into various layers of Wealthy, Middle Class, and Poor. If we extend the analysis presented in [my earlier essays], we get an entirely different framework that breaks naturally into four classes: 1. Parasitic financial Aristocracy (creates no value, skims national surplus) 2. High value creation (employed, heavily taxed) 3. Low value creation (employed/informal economy, lightly taxed) 4. No value creation (unemployed, dependent) There are of course various distinctions that must be made within each broad class, but the point is the financial health of the nation ultimately depends on creating surplus value – value in excess of the costs of production and overhead. Wealth that is incapable of generating new wealth is consumed, i.e. eating our seed corn: once the investable capital is gone, it is no longer available to leverage new wealth creation, and the nation spirals into poverty and conflict. The key metrics are value creation and cost: assessing the value created by each class and the costs of maintaining each class. In the conventional view, the wealthy subsidize the poor via taxes and donations to charity (i.e. noblesse oblige). But the conventional framework ignores the key question of where the wealthy obtained their fortunes, and the consequences of that wealth acquisition on the larger economy. If the wealthy parasitically skimmed their wealth, they are in effect depriving the economy of capital that could have been productively invested elsewhere. If they created value far in excess of the costs of their enterprise, then they were conduits of high-value creation... More Cruxallaneous:    | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Why one group of junior gold stocks could rally far more than the rest Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:56 PM PST From The Gold Report: A lackluster U.S. economy is creating a positive environment for gold, according to Michael Fowler, senior mining analyst with Loewen, Ondaatje, McCutcheon Ltd. By calculating ounces-in-the-ground values and assessing risk, Fowler has concluded that the junior/midtier sector offers the best growth potential. He expects to see companies of all sizes try to control costs instead of looking for mergers and acquisitions to add value. Read on in this Gold Report interview for Fowler's take on companies that he believes fit the bill. The Gold Report: Michael, in August you said $2,000/ounce (oz) gold would push up equity prices in 2013. Are you still of that mindset? Michael Fowler: Yes, although it has taken longer than I expected. The U.S. dollar price of gold was up 6.2% in 2012, but the real increases in the gold price took place in other currencies. For example, in 2012 gold was up about 15% in the euro. The strengthening U.S. economy has been a headwind to gold. I remain bullish on gold and am keeping my $2,000/oz average for 2013. TGR: A $1,675/oz gold price would require an increase of almost 20% to reach $2,000/oz. Will it require a downturn in the U.S. economy to accomplish that? MF: To some degree, I hope the U.S. economy will not speed up because that would be a major risk to my analysis. The U.S. economy is relatively lackluster. We think the Fed will continue with quantitative easing and increasing the money supply. Interest rates will continue to be low. All of that creates... More on junior resource stocks:    | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Bank of America System Crashes? Online Banking & Debit Cards Down Nationwide Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:51 PM PST Bank of America's online banking system has crashed, with reports coming in that BOA debit cards are also not functioning. Not surprisingly, the reports indicate BOA systems are having no difficulties receiving cash…naturally it's all outgoing funds that are the problem. Freedom Girl Now Available From the Silver Bullet Silver Shield Collection at SDBullion.com!! [...] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| “End of an Era” for Gold as S&P 500 Records Best January Since 1997 Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:50 PM PST
THE U.S. DOLLAR gold price recovered some of its losses from the previous day Friday, edging higher to $1666 an ounce by the end of the morning in London, while most stock markets also edged higher ahead of US nonfarm payrolls data due out 08.30 Washington, DC time. A day earlier, gold dropped 1% during Thursday's US session, in what one analyst describes as "a remarkable display of schizophrenic volatility". A few hours later there was "little buying on the physical side" in Friday's Asian session according to one Hong Kong dealer quoted by newswire Reuters. "There's some buying from mainland China…but I think gold is a bit tired after it failed to break $1700 an ounce." European stock markets edged higher this morning, with exceptions in Italy and Spain. Spain's IBEX 35 index extended recent losses and was down 1.4% on the day by lunchtime today, the first day of trading after a ban on short selling dating from last July came to an end yesterday. Spanish stocks have now erased their gains from January. The S&P 500 by contrast has seen its best start to a year since 1997, rising 5.2% last month. "Earnings are strong, the economies around the world are bottoming and valuations are attractive," reckons Paul Zemsky, head of asset allocation at ING Investment Management in New York. BNP Paribas today became the fifth big bank to follow Goldman Sachs and cut its 2013 gold price forecast by up to $100 per ounce. The French bank's analysts now believe gold will average $1790 per ounce this year. Credit Suisse meantime published a note today entitled 'Gold: The Beginning of the End of an Era', arguing that the 2011 gold price peak could prove to have been the high "in this cycle" as the financial crisis grows less acute. Like gold, silver also edged higher this morning, ticking above $31.40 an ounce, while other commodities were broadly flat. China's manufacturing sector meantime continued to expand in January, though at a slower rate than the month before, according to official purchasing managers' index data published by Beijing Friday. China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4 last month, down from 50.6 in December, with a figure above 50 indicating sector expansion. HSBC's manufacturing PMI by contrast rose to 52.3, up from 51.9 a month earlier, implying an accelerated growth rate. The HSBC PMI is more heavily weighted towards small and medium enterprises than the official PMI, which places greater emphasis on the views of purchasing managers at larger state-owned enterprises. "Overall, I will put more weight on today's official PMI, largely because the current recovery is still rather narrowly based," says Li-Gang Liu, chief China economist at ANZ. "We believe the state sector tends to benefit from this round recovery much more than the SME sector, a sector that tends to dominate the HSBC sample. The HSBC PMI also has a pattern of pro-cyclicality. When the markets are optimistic, the HSBC often becomes more so, and vice versa." Over in Europe, Germany's manufacturing PMI rose from 46.0 in December to 49.8 last month, while for the Eurozone as a whole the manufacturing PMI rose from 46.1 to 47.9. "Providing there are no further setbacks to the region's debt crisis, these data add to the expectation that the Eurozone is on course to return to growth by mid-2013," says Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, which produces the European PMI data. In the UK meantime, manufacturing PMI fell last month to 50.8, down from 51.2 a month earlier. Similar PMI data for the US are released later today. The US Senate Thursday approved legislation to extend the federal debt ceiling until May 19. The legislation now needs to be signed into law by President Obama. The US Mint meantime reported a record monthly volume of silver American Eagle bullion coin sales for January. Just under 7.5 million ounces of the silver coins – which are produced specifically for investment purposes – were sold last month. Sales of gold American Eagle coins were their highest since July 2010 at 150,000 ounces. Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben can be found on Google+ (c) BullionVault 2013 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Run? 43 Tonnes of Gold Stand for February Delivery on 1st Notice Day Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:30 PM PST Today was first notice day for February delivery in gold, and as usual, we had a waterfall raid in gold to $1655. The cartel MO has long been to raid gold and silver on options expiration as well as first notice day, to help prevent longs from standing for delivery. While the the cartel raid [...] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Credit Suisse calls an end to gold's run as S&P 500 records best Jan since '97 Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:27 PM PST A day after dropping 1% in the US session gold recovered some of its losses, edging higher to $1666 an ounce by the end of the morning in London. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| It's All About Money Flows Folks Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:08 PM PST I continue to hear from many readers about the unprecedented rally in the US equity markets that as of today has taken the Dow to within less than 200 points of its all time high and the S&P 500 to 5 year highs in spite of what nearly everyone I have spoken with believe is a lackluster economy. It is the result of money flows - think about the enormous sums of liquidity that have been created by the actions of the Federal Reserve (not to mention the ECB and the BOJ). Then think about the abysmally low interest rate environment that this CB intervention has forced upon the economy. Then think about all that money looking to find a home where it can obtain YIELD. What does that leave? Answer - equities.... Commodities (other than some select ones) are still concerned that the rate of economic growth (while improving globally) is certainly not leaping but is rather muddling along in the right direction. While that is all well and good, it is not enough to generate robust demand across the entirety of the commodity sector. Commodities in that sense have become a "stock picker's Market". In other words, traders/investors, rather than just blindly rushing pell mell into the entirety of the commodity sector, are being very selective as to which particular commodities or category of commodities that they want exposure to. Gold is struggling in this environment because government inflation figures (which no one believes) are still very tame. Throw in the fact that the talk in the halls of economic power is that the worst ( the US credit crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, Chinese slowdown fears, BOJ deflation fears, etc.) is behind us, and that is denting safe haven buying in gold as well as safe haven buying in the bond market. As a matter of fact, bonds are increasingly being seen as a suckers's bet and that has the hot money leaving low interest rate paying bonds and flowing into equities to take advantage of double digit gains. I have no idea where this will lead us but as long as the current sentiment is so lopsidedly wildlish bullish, equities will work higher and gold will remain rangebound. With the "worst is behind us" talk increasing, it will take a genuine return to fears of inflation emerging to get the gold market excited again. Right now gold is completely focused on the extent and duration of the Fed's QE policy. You might have noticed that when the initial jobs number hit the wire this AM, it was considered very weak and thus got the gold bulls revved up on the idea that it would keep the Fed in the QE game for the rest of 2013 at a bare minimum. Then, not longer after that, the ISM's Manufacturing Index reading came in at a much higher than expected 53.1 versus 50.2 in December. The number was so much stronger than expected, that it immediately sent shivers down the backs of the gold market rekindling fears of a sooner-than-just-expected ending to the QE4 program. Gold surrendered half its gains in the matter of a few minutes. That is where we are currently. Keep in mind that all of what we are seeing has been accomplished by MONEY PRINTING IN UNPRECEDENTED amounts. Apparently, everything that we have ever learned about economics and currency creation out of thin air is wrong. Permanent prosperity can indeed be created out of thin air; recessions/depressions are obsolete and will never occur again; ever-increasing amounts of debt have no impact. The Central Bank ALCHEMISTS have won.... FOR NOW.... | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver Will Be Top PM Performer in 2013 Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:00 PM PST Guest Post Silver will benefit on multiple fronts in 2013. As the global economy picks up, industrial demand will escalate as well. As interest rates rise to curtail inflation, silver should win again, leading experts to believe that silver will be the top performer in the group. According to Joni Teves, an analyst for UBS, [...] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Final bottom in gold stocks coming Posted: 01 Feb 2013 11:54 AM PST In my articles you've heard me talk about accumulating on weakness, buying support, being patient and waiting for better opportunities. Folks, this next week is one of those opportunities.  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Jumping exports give silver impetus in India Posted: 01 Feb 2013 11:48 AM PST To gold starved Indian consumers, silver has taken on a brighter hue at home, but it remains the silver export sector that is leading the charge. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Bill Gross - Credit Supernova! Posted: 01 Feb 2013 11:48 AM PST A rare "Must Read" piece by the Bond King.Pimco Managing Director Bill Gross writes in his February letter: They say that time is money.* What they don't say is that money may be running out of time. ***  *** There may be a natural evolution to our fractionally reserved credit system which characterizes modern global finance. Much like the universe, which began with a big bang nearly 14 billion years ago, but is expanding so rapidly that scientists predict it will all end in a "big freeze" trillions of years from now, our current monetary system seems to require perpetual expansion to maintain its existence. And too, the advancing entropy in the physical universe may in fact portend a similar decline of "energy" and "heat" within the credit markets. If so, then the legitimate response of creditors, debtors and investors inextricably intertwined within it, should logically be to ask about the economic and investment implications of its ongoing transition. (More...) *** But before mimicking T.S. Eliot on the way our monetary system might evolve, let me first describe the "big bang" beginning of credit markets, so that you can more closely recognize its transition. The creation of credit in our modern day fractional reserve banking system began with a deposit and the profitable expansion of that deposit via leverage. Banks and other lenders don't always keep 100% of their deposits in the "vault" at any one time – in fact they keep very little – thus the term "fractional reserves." That first deposit then, and the explosion outward of 10x and more of levered lending, is modern day finance's equivalent of the big bang. When it began is actually harder to determine than the birth of the physical universe but it certainly accelerated with the invention of central banking – the U.S. in 1913 – and with it the increased confidence that these newly licensed lenders of last resort would provide support to financial and real economies. Banking and central banks were and remain essential elements of a productive global economy. *** But they carried within them an inherent instability that required the perpetual creation of more and more credit to stay alive. Those initial loans from that first deposit? They were made most certainly at yields close to the rate of real growth and creation of real wealth in the economy. Lenders demanded that yield because of their risk, and borrowers were speculating that the profit on their fledgling enterprises would exceed the interest expense on those loans. In many cases, they succeeded. But the economy as a whole could not logically grow faster than the real interest rates required to pay creditors, in combination with the near double-digit returns that equity holders demanded to support the initial leverage – unless – unless – it was supplied with additional credit to pay the tab. In a sense this was a "Sixteen Tons" metaphor: Another day older and deeper in debt, except few within the credit system itself understood the implications. *** Economist Hyman Minsky did. With credit now expanding, the sophisticated economic model provided by Minsky was working its way towards what he called Ponzi finance. First, he claimed the system would borrow in low amounts and be relatively self-sustaining – what he termed "Hedge" finance. Then the system would gain courage, lever more into a "Speculative" finance mode which required more credit to pay back previous borrowings at maturity. Finally, the end phase of "Ponzi" finance would appear when additional credit would be required just to cover increasingly burdensome interest payments, with accelerating inflation the end result. *** Minsky's concept, developed nearly a half century ago shortly after the explosive decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971, was primarily a cyclically contained model which acknowledged recession and then rejuvenation once the system's leverage had been reduced. That was then. He perhaps could not have imagined the hyperbolic, as opposed to linear, secular rise in U.S. credit creation that has occurred since as shown in Chart 1. (Patterns for other developed economies are similar.) While there has been cyclical delevering, it has always been mild – even during the Volcker era of 1979-81. When Minsky formulated his theory in the early 70s, credit outstanding in the U.S. totaled $3 trillion.† Today, at $56 trillion and counting, it is a monster that requires perpetually increasing amounts of fuel, a supernova star that expands and expands, yet, in the process begins to consume itself. Each additional dollar of credit seems to create less and less heat. In the 1980s, it took four dollars of new credit to generate $1 of real GDP. Over the last decade, it has taken $10, and since 2006, $20 to produce the same result. Minsky's Ponzi finance at the 2013 stage goes more and more to creditors and market speculators and less and less to the real economy. This "Credit New Normal" is entropic much like the physical universe and the "heat" or real growth that new credit now generates becomes less and less each year: 2% real growth now instead of an historical 3.5% over the past 50 years; likely even less as the future unfolds. ***  *** Not only is more and more anemic credit created by lenders as its "sixteen tons" becomes "thirty-two," then "sixty-four," but in the process, today's near zero bound interest rates cripple savers and business models previously constructed on the basis of positive real yields and wider margins for loans. Net interest margins at banks compress; liabilities at insurance companies threaten their levered equity; and underfunded pension plans require greater contributions from their corporate funders unless regulatory agencies intervene. What has followed has been a gradual erosion of real growth as layoffs, bank branch closings and business consolidations create less of a need for labor and physical plant expansion. In effect, the initial magic of credit creation turns less magical, in some cases even destructive and begins to consume credit markets at the margin as well as portions of the real economy it has created. For readers demanding a more model-driven, historical example of the negative impact of zero based interest rates, they have only to witness the modern day example of Japan. With interest rates close to zero for the last decade or more, a sharply declining rate of investment in productive plants and equipment, shown in Chart 2, is the best evidence. A Japanese credit market supernova, exploding and then contracting onto itself. Money and credit may be losing heat and running out of time in other developed economies as well, including the U.S. ***  *** Investment Strategy If so then the legitimate question is: how much time does money/credit have left and what are the investment consequences between now and then? Well, first I will admit that my supernova metaphor is more instructive than literal. The end of the global monetary system is not nigh. But the entropic characterization is most illustrative. Credit is now funneled increasingly into market speculation as opposed to productive innovation. Asset price appreciation as opposed to simple yield or "carry" is now critical to maintain the system's momentum and longevity. Investment banking, which only a decade ago promoted small business development and transition to public markets, now is dominated by leveraged speculation and the Ponzi finance Minsky once warned against. *** So our credit-based financial markets and the economy it supports are levered, fragile and increasingly entropic – it is running out of energy and time. When does money run out of time? The countdown begins when investable assets pose too much risk for too little return; when lenders desert credit markets for other alternatives such as cash or real assets. *** REPEAT: THE COUNTDOWN BEGINS WHEN INVESTABLE ASSETS POSE TOO MUCH RISK FOR TOO LITTLE RETURN. *** Visible first signs for creditors would logically be 1) long-term bond yields too low relative to duration risk, 2) credit spreads too tight relative to default risk and 3) PE ratios too high relative to growth risks. Not immediately, but over time, credit is exchanged figuratively or sometimes literally for cash in a mattress or conversely for real assets (gold, diamonds) in a vault. It also may move to other credit markets denominated in alternative currencies. As it does, domestic systems delever as credit and its supernova heat is abandoned for alternative assets. Unless central banks and credit extending private banks can generate real or at second best, nominal growth with their trillions of dollars, euros, and yen, then the risk of credit market entropy will increase. The element of time is critical because investors and speculators that support the system may not necessarily fully participate in it for perpetuity. We ask ourselves frequently at PIMCO, what else could we do, what else could we invest in to avoid the consequences of financial repression and negative real interest rates approaching minus 2%? The choices are varied: cash to help protect against an inflationary expansion or just the opposite – long Treasuries to take advantage of a deflationary bust; real assets; emerging market equities, etc. One of our Investment Committee members swears he would buy land in New Zealand and set sail. Most of us can't do that, nor can you. The fact is that PIMCO and almost all professional investors are in many cases index constrained, and thus duration and risk constrained. We operate in a world that is primarily credit based and as credit loses energy we and our clients should acknowledge its entropy, which means accepting lower returns on bonds, stocks, real estate and derivative strategies that likely will produce less than double-digit returns. Still, investors cannot simply surrender to their entropic destiny. Time may be running out, but time is still money as the original saying goes. How can you make some? (1) Position for eventual inflation: the end stage of a supernova credit explosion is likely to produce more inflation than growth, and more chances of inflation as opposed to deflation. In bonds, buy inflation protection via TIPS; shorten maturities and durations; don't fight central banks – anticipate them by buying what they buy first; look as well for offshore sovereign bonds with positive real interest rates (Mexico, Italy, Brazil, for example). (2) Get used to slower real growth: QEs and zero-based interest rates have negative consequences. Move money to currencies and asset markets in countries with less debt and less hyperbolic credit systems. Australia, Brazil, Mexico and Canada are candidates. (3) Invest in global equities with stable cash flows that should provide historically lower but relatively attractive returns. (4) Transition from financial to real assets if possible at the margin: buy something you can sink your teeth into – gold, other commodities, anything that can't be reproduced as fast as credit. Think of PIMCO in this transition. We hope to be "Your Global Investment Authority." We have a product menu to assist. (5) Be cognizant of property rights and confiscatory policies in all governments. (6) Appreciate the supernova characterization of our current credit system. At some point it will transition to something else. We may be running out of time, but time will always be money. Speed Read for Credit Supernova 1) Why is our credit market running out of heat or fuel?
2) What options should an investor consider?
William H. Gross Managing Director * The terms "money" and "credit" are used interchangeably in this IO. Purists would dispute the usage and I would agree with them, arguing for the usage for simplicity's sake and the evolving homogeneity of the two. † Outstanding credit includes all government debt as well as corporate, household and personal debt. Does not include "shadow" debt estimated at $20-30 trillion.
Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the bond market is subject to certain risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit and inflation risk. Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic and industry conditions. Investing in foreign-denominated and/or -domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. Currency rates may fluctuate significantly over short periods of time and may reduce the returns of a portfolio. Sovereign securities are generally backed by the issuing government. Obligations of U.S. government agencies and authorities are supported by varying degrees, but are generally not backed by the full faith of the U.S. government; portfolios that invest in such securities are not guaranteed and will fluctuate in value. Inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) issued by a government are fixed income securities whose principal value is periodically adjusted according to the rate of inflation; ILBs decline in value when real interest rates rise. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are ILBs issued by the U.S. government. Commodities contain heightened risk including market, political, regulatory and natural conditions, and may not be suitable for all investors. The views and strategies described herein are for illustrative purposes only and may not be suitable for all investors. The information is not based on any particularized financial situation, or need, and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation for any specific PIMCO or other strategy, product or service. Investors should consult their financial advisor prior to making an investment decision. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. This material contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of PIMCO and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO and YOUR GLOBAL INVESTMENT AUTHORITY are trademarks or registered trademarks of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. and Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, respectively, in the United States and throughout the world. ©2013, PIMCO. *** ***(Is a formatting artifact. Please disregard.) Source: Pimco Thanks to Graeme Irvine for the link. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold firms ahead of U.S. payrolls data Posted: 01 Feb 2013 11:46 AM PST The metal's fortunes are pegged to the health of the US economy, with recent signs of recovery which dampened hopes for further monetary easing, capping gains. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold outlook for the following months Posted: 01 Feb 2013 11:42 AM PST Gold moved sideways for the last six weeks, with each rally and correction sparking either new hopes or new fears about the yellow metal. But focusing on such short-term volatility can rarely bring any good when it comes to long-term investments.  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Goldilocks Ends & ‘Currency Wars’ Begin Posted: 01 Feb 2013 11:35 AM PST
Amid continuing inflationary policy, the US Dollar is at a critical juncture by both daily and weekly charts. Euro targets 142+ and the Yen approaches our target. Currency war kicks off; gold just sits there biding time. From last week's eLetter: "A Goldilocks atmosphere was expertly created in large part due to the fact that Operation Twist (yes, we are still dealing with its effects) by its very definition held long-term interest rates down (buying long-term T bonds) while sopping up any money supply implications and inflationary signals by sanitizing the process with the sales of equal amounts of short-term bonds." Policy makers have not found a new way to indefinitely manage the economy. Traditional laws of economics have not been repealed. The Federal Reserve used the equivalent of a macro parlor trick to dampen inflation signals and help produce today's Goldilocks atmosphere, which features stocks rising now that the public and its mainstream money managers feel the worst is over with respect to the Fiscal Cliff non-event and the Debt Ceiling noise. But in economics and macro finance, there is is always a price to be paid for unnatural (read: man-made) distortions. The Fed ran out of short-term bonds to sell and now something has to give, as its ongoing inflationary operation is now unsanitized.
A bearish Head & Shoulders pattern has formed on the currency for which the Fed is supposedly a steward. If the neckline breaks, the measured target is 76.50.
The weekly chart of USD targets 74 off of an even more significant H&S, with the baby H&S of the first chart merely representing the right shoulder of the big daddy H&S.
A breakdown in the US dollar would confirm that the recent tick higher in Adjusted Monetary Base is the beginning of a new trend up in inflationary policy.
Unsurprisingly, USD's chief rival, the Euro is in an inverted and bullish H&S. We have been targeting 142 in NFTRH since the break above the neckline. The Euro appears to be attracting a 'long Euro/short Yen and gold' momentum (read: hedge funds) crowd playing the opposite game to that from mid 2011 when Yen and Gold rose strongly in reaction to the Euro crisis.
Yen has been played to the hilt by the hedgies. We have had 106 as the downside target since the neckline to the massive H&S broke down. Yen could be a heck of a contrarian play for a counter trend rally, as the short-covering should be massive. Meanwhile, the currency that resides outside the system bides its time. Gold is unofficial money and with all the hype about currency war people who are not patient may have expected a rocket launch in the precious metals.
Here we bring it back to the Euro and realize that too many unhealthy would-be gold bugs came aboard during the acute phase of the Euro crisis in 2011. That is being worked off now in gold's ongoing consolidation. Bottom Line US dollar looks bearish. Euro looks to complete its rally to 142+ where it will by the way, encounter a bigger picture DOWN trend line. Yen is bearish but due for a whale of a short-covering bounce soon. In the near-term some currencies are bullish and some are bearish. But the US Fed, Europe's ECB and the BOJ are not going to engineer their way out of their respective 'inflate-or-die' predicaments. Gold may have a few more months of correction/consolidation but that is a drop in the bucket when viewing its entire history as a monetary anchor to value. Biiwii.com, Twitter, free eLetter, NFTRH  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Another warning of impending bondpocalypse Posted: 01 Feb 2013 11:11 AM PST Flee 'safe' sovereign debt, says Hasenstab "I love Keiser Ethical Silver" | ||||||||||||||||||||
| "End of an era" for gold as S&P 500 records best January since 1997 Posted: 01 Feb 2013 10:04 AM PST Gold dropped 1% during Thursday's US session, in what one analyst describes as "a remarkable display of schizophrenic volatility." The S&P 500 by contrast has seen its best start to a year since 1997, rising 5.2% last month.  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Jim Sinclair: Cartel Attempting to Shake Free Real Gold in the Cash Market! Posted: 01 Feb 2013 09:45 AM PST Jim Sinclair has sent email subscribers an email alert regarding the latest take-down of the gold market by the bullion bank cartel. Sinclair states that the latest actions are not motivated by paper profits, but are an attempt by the cartel to shake free real physical gold bullion from weak hands in the cash market. [...] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold: Follow the man in the street…and the souk Posted: 01 Feb 2013 09:34 AM PST Perhaps the most bullish news for gold so far this year has been the spate of downward revisions to the price forecasts proffered by many of the major banking firms, dealers, trading houses, and other institutional participants in the gold scene.  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 09:24 AM PST Rush To Safety: Americans Buy Nearly Half a Billion Dollars Of Gold and Silver In January | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Collecting antique Silver coins Posted: 01 Feb 2013 09:08 AM PST Some of the most popular types of silver coins that are sought by collectors are the antique coins. Antique coins may be bought from auction sales, coin shows, online and offline coin dealers, other collectors, and even in tourist areas that have historical themes. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 09:00 AM PST I have been giving a great deal of thought this week to why people like Backwoods Jack, who is well read and very bright, refuse to acknowledge what to me is so clear – and easily documented. His latest comments to me, after I informed him that I will no longer discuss ANYTHING economic with him are:
Without going into detail, my answer was no! It is impossible to discuss gold and silver without discussing why one needs to own them. It's like asking your doctor for a prescription without explaining what the symptoms are. I believe, like my good friend Terry says, Backwoods is suffering from a case of Normalcy Bias. It's as widespread as the common cold. For those of you who aren't familiar with the phrase, here is the definition of normalcy bias:
How clear it is – Backwoods says, "It is just the 'gloom and doom' I can live without." It's not that he can't comprehend what I say; it's that he doesn't want to comprehend what I say. He automatically moves toward any source of information that paints a rosier picture. He is, for lack of a better phrase, a "cockeyed-optimist." God bless the optimist! But in this case, I think God will bless the open-eyed realist. Like so many, Backwoods would rather kill the messenger than face the truth. The sources he turns to for information are all mainstream bankers and brokers, all of whom benefit from a strong economy and pitch an upbeat story. Wish it were so, but if you give any credibility to John Williams (Shadowstats) note that his latest release says:
If you want to ignore what is occurring, and fall victim to the Normalcy Bias, there will be a severe price to pay. Backwoods, and all the rest of you like-minded optimists, it's time to get real. Gold and silver are an insurance policy to protect you in the storm that is approaching. Close the shutters. Take care of business now, while you still can, don't ignore the warning signs and don't seek out advice from the very sources that have been wrong through every crisis and bubble. They didn't warn you in advance before and they are pulling the wool over your eyes now too. That's a fact Jack, Backwoods Jack!
I think I'll ad… Today's comments from Newsmax here – they seem to fit the theme of my rant:
Ed Steer posted the chart below that shows how gold, bonds, stocks and the U.S. dollar index have fared since 1970. Interesting, huh? Show this to your friends who still own stocks and haven't bought any gold. Click on image to enlarge. Similar Posts:
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| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 08:30 AM PST Apparently some things never change. It's time for Caption Contest Friday!! 2013 Silver Eagles IN STOCK & As Low As $2.79 Over Spot at SDBullion!! | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold deliveries rise to near-record for February futures Posted: 01 Feb 2013 08:11 AM PST We are now delivering futures for February, and already notices have gone out for 914,200 ounces of gold, which for first day notices must be close to a record.  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Barrick Gold starts process to sell energy unit Posted: 01 Feb 2013 08:08 AM PST Spokesman Andy Lloyd says the company has already begun the process to sell Barrick Energy as it seeks to offload non-core assets. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| The swinging gold sentiments pendulum Posted: 01 Feb 2013 07:57 AM PST The U.S. Comex gold futures surged 1.15% on Wednesday after the disappointing U.S. Q4 GDP data was released while the Fed maintained its bond-purchase program of $85 billion a month.  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 07:45 AM PST J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said gold will rise to $1,800 an ounce by the middle of 2013, with the mining industry in South Africa "in crisis," according to Bloomberg. South Africa, once the largest gold producer, faces industrial unrest, high wage inflation and adverse regulatory changes for local mines, Allan Cooke, an analyst at [...] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| US Mint Jan Gold coin sales hit 140,000 ounces Posted: 01 Feb 2013 07:29 AM PST The Mint resumed silver-coin sales on Jan. 28 after suspending them for more than a week because of a lack of inventory. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 01 Feb 2013 07:19 AM PST Gold is not just a mineral with little industrial use and importance in the international monetary system, but is still considered a measure of wealth throughout the world and holds an important role in the global monetary system. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold price look to close the week on a positive note as unemployment starts to rise again in the US Posted: 01 Feb 2013 07:13 AM PST The pattern now seems clear, whenever there is a data point that shows that the US economy is faltering the gold price spikes on the belief that the Fed will continue the money printing – as... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]           | ||||||||||||||||||||
| JPMorgan sees gold at $1,800 by mid-2013 as South Africa in crisis Posted: 01 Feb 2013 07:00 AM PST JPMorgan Chase & Co. said gold will rise to $1,800 an ounce by the middle of 2013, with the mining industry in South Africa "in crisis," according to Bloomberg.  | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold & Silver Spike on NFP Disappointment Posted: 01 Feb 2013 06:52 AM PST Gold & silver have spiked vertically on this morning's NFP disappointment, with silver spiking precisely in Wednesday's algo spike on the chart through $32, and gold back over $1680. We hope you stacked the smack during yesterday's raid. 2013 Silver Eagles IN STOCK & As Low As $2.79 Over Spot at SDBullion!! Silver spikes through [...] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 Silver American Eagles As Low As $2.79 Over Spot!! Posted: 01 Feb 2013 06:39 AM PST Doc's Deal Of The Day 2013 Silver American Eagles As Low As $2.79 Over Spot!! Click Here or Call 614-300-1094 To Order! 1000+ Ounces $2.79 Over Spot! 500-999 Ounces $2.89 Over Spot! 100-499 Ounces $3.29 Over Spot! 50-99 Ounces $3.59 Over Spot! 1-49 Ounces $3.89 Over Spot! ANY SILVER PURCHASE OF 100 OUNCES OR [...] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| India fiscal deficit widens on gold imports Posted: 01 Feb 2013 06:23 AM PST The deficit during April-December period is almost 79 percent of the budgetary estimate of Rs.5.14 lakh crore for the entire financial year ending March 31, 2013. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| JPMorgan Sees Gold At $1,800 By Mid 2013 As South Africa “In Crisis” And “Escalating Ins Posted: 01 Feb 2013 05:53 AM PST gold.ie | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Jan NFP: + 157,000, Unemployment Rate At 7.9% Posted: 01 Feb 2013 05:37 AM PST NFP + 157,000 on expectations of + 165,000 Official bogus unemployment rate: 7.9% Gold & silver go vertical on the disappointment 2013 Silver Eagles IN STOCK & As Low As $2.79 Over Spot at SDBullion!! Long term unemployed unchanged at 4.7 million Labor participation rate unchanged at 63.5% Largest increase in jobs was [...] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Une mini-révolution monétaire en Angola Posted: 01 Feb 2013 05:32 AM PST À partir du mois de février, de nouveaux billets et pièces en monnaie nationale, le kwanza, vont être mis en circulation en Angola. Objectif de la banque centrale : renforcer le poids du kwanza par rapport au dollar, qui domine l'économie de ce pays pétrolier. La mesure, bien accueillie par les banques et les entrepreneurs, constitue un défi pour le système bancaire angolais, en pleine modernisation. Et elle doit être acceptée par la population, qui craint une flambée des prix... Lire | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Ghana officially denies Iran Gold deal Posted: 01 Feb 2013 04:29 AM PST For the first time after the controversy over gold transactions with Iran, Ghanaian government officially denied any involvement in the deal. |
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