Gold World News Flash |
- QB Projects Shadow Gold Price To Be $15,000 In One Year!
- Central banks are coordinating rotating currency devaluations, Paul Brodsky says
- Gold After The FOMC Statement – “For Pete’s Sake!” w/ Peter Hug of Kitco Metals – YouTube
- Gold: The Two Key Things That Came Out of FOMC – RESET w/ Vince Lanci (FMX Connect) – YouTube
- GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek talks to JOHN EMBRY – Jan 31, 2013 – YouTube
- Contraction in GDP, North Africa and Middle East Wars, Buy Gold and More – YouTube
- Belkin - We’re Facing A 1987 Selloff & Eventual Hyperinflation
- Germany Repatriates Its Gold
- Silver Update 1/31/13 Silver Savings
- Paul Krugman Answers Paul Ryan on Debt Crisis: We Can Print Money
- Why Can't Germany Get Its Gold Back?! Interview with David Morgan
- Everybody in the Industry Knows the US Doesnt Have the Gold
- Home Sales In Canada Have Plummeted – Business Insider
- Guest Post: Is Germany Preparing For Future Capital Controls?
- Fabian Calvo- Another Bubble in the Housing Market is Coming – YouTube
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Erase Most of Yesterday’s Gains
- The Consolidated "Currency Wars" Chart
- How The Stock Market Became The "Food Stamps" for the 1%
- The Gold Price in the Last Three Days Gained $27 and Lost $19.30 Remains in Uptrend
- Peter Schiff & Doug Casey About Gold, Dollar Collapse & US Fed
- Guest Post: The Linchpin Lie: How Global Collapse Will Be Sold To The Masses
- Gold price rigging is as old as gold itself
- The Matterhorn interview: Robert Blumen on price formation in gold
- Monetary Base Breaking Out! Will Gold Prices F...
- Marc Faber Sounds A Lot Like Warren Buffett – YouTube
- Lessons From A Successful Investor: Control Your Worst Enemy, Your Emotion
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Bill Gross Says 'Buy Gold'
- Everybody in the Industry Knows the US Doesn't Have the Gold
- The GDP is “Hot Right Now”
- Jim's Mailbox
- Silver - Nothing Doin' Yet
- Monetary Base Breaking Out! Will Gold Prices Follow?
- Truth In Reporting
- Is Germany preparing for future capital controls?
- Rock Beats Paper: Why the Volatility Can't Beat a Solid Foundation
- Doug Casey Interview with Peter Schiff
| QB Projects Shadow Gold Price To Be $15,000 In One Year! Posted: 01 Feb 2013 02:00 AM PST from KingWorldNews:
The Fed can't end QE, unless they want to see deterioration of credit in the banking system. This would feed through to a deterioration of debt in the broader economy. The Fed, ECB, and the Bank of Japan, they cannot stop creating new base money. I think the rhetoric that comes out of the Fed and other central banks should be viewed as jawboning…" |
| Central banks are coordinating rotating currency devaluations, Paul Brodsky says Posted: 01 Feb 2013 01:30 AM PST from GATA:
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Paul Brodsky of QB Asset Management in New York today tells King World News that the world is experiencing "rotating currency devaluations … coordinated by central banks." Brodsky adds, "There is no other choice, nothing else that can be done. Currencies must be destroyed through dilution, and debt must be shifted to central bank balance sheets where it can be left unmarked to amortize or default." An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here: |
| Gold After The FOMC Statement – “For Pete’s Sake!” w/ Peter Hug of Kitco Metals – YouTube Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:37 AM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  |
| Gold: The Two Key Things That Came Out of FOMC – RESET w/ Vince Lanci (FMX Connect) – YouTube Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:26 AM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  |
| GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek talks to JOHN EMBRY – Jan 31, 2013 – YouTube Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:19 AM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  |
| Contraction in GDP, North Africa and Middle East Wars, Buy Gold and More – YouTube Posted: 01 Feb 2013 12:07 AM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  |
| Belkin - We’re Facing A 1987 Selloff & Eventual Hyperinflation Posted: 31 Jan 2013 11:53 PM PST  Today the man who counsels prominent hedge funds, investment banks, institutional money managers, mutual funds, pension funds, and high net worth individuals across the globe, told King World News that he believes we are facing a 1987 type scenario where the markets will get badly shaken. Belkin, President of Belkin Limited, also believes we are eventually headed for a destructive hyperinflation where gold will have an extended upside move. Here is what Michael Belkin had to say in this powerful interview: "Back in 2009, in the spring, I was extremely bullish. Back in late 2002 when the stock market bottomed I was bullish on the economy and on markets. The time to buy is when blood is in the streets. We are so far from that." This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Posted: 31 Jan 2013 11:00 PM PST by Mark Thornton, Mises:
As part of its Cold War strategy, Germany stored much of its gold reserves "as west as possible." Bundesbank officials now claim that strategy is outdated. They also say that the movement of gold back to Germany is meant to build trust and confidence in case of a currency crisis in the Euro. |
| Silver Update 1/31/13 Silver Savings Posted: 31 Jan 2013 10:23 PM PST from BrotheJohnF: Freedom Girl and Slave Queen are available HERE. |
| Paul Krugman Answers Paul Ryan on Debt Crisis: We Can Print Money Posted: 31 Jan 2013 10:20 PM PST by Melanie Hunter, CNSnews:
Weakening the dollar, Krugman said, would be a good thing. "The United States is a country that has its own currency–can't run out of cash because we print the money. If you even try to think what would happen–suppose that investors get down on the United States. Even so, that would weaken the dollar, not send interest rates soaring, and that would be good. That would help our exports," Krugman said on C-SPAN's "Newsmakers." |
| Why Can't Germany Get Its Gold Back?! Interview with David Morgan Posted: 31 Jan 2013 09:40 PM PST from silver investor.com: |
| Everybody in the Industry Knows the US Doesnt Have the Gold Posted: 31 Jan 2013 08:19 PM PST Dollar Collapse |
| Home Sales In Canada Have Plummeted – Business Insider Posted: 31 Jan 2013 08:17 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  |
| Guest Post: Is Germany Preparing For Future Capital Controls? Posted: 31 Jan 2013 07:13 PM PST Submitted by Jeff Clark via Casey Research, The best indicator of a chess player's form is his ability to sense the climax of the game. –Boris Spassky, World Chess Champion, 1969-1972 You've likely heard that the German central bank announced it will begin withdrawing part of its massive gold holdings from the United States as well as all its holdings from France. By 2020, Bundesbank says it wants half its gold reserves stored in its own vault in Germany. Why would it want to physically move the metal from New York? It's not as if US vaults are not secure, and since Germany already owns the gold, does it really matter where it sits? You may recall that Hugo Chávez did the same thing in late 2011, repatriating much of his country's gold reserves from London. However, this isn't a third-world dictatorship; Germany is a major ally of the US. So what's going on? Pawn to A3On the surface, it may seem innocuous for Germany to move some pallets of gold closer to home. Some observers note that since Russia isn't likely to be invading Germany anytime soon – one of the original reasons Germany had for storing its gold outside the country – the move is only natural and no big deal. But Germany's gold stash represents roughly 10% of the world's gold reserves, and the cost of moving it is not trivial, so we see greater import in the move. The Bundesbank said the purpose of the move was to "build trust and confidence domestically, and the ability to exchange gold for foreign currencies at gold-trading centers abroad within a short space of time." It's just satisfying the worries of the commoners, in the mainstream view, as well as giving themselves the ability to complete transactions faster. As evidence that it's nothing more than this, Bundesbank points out that half of Germany's gold will remain in New York and London (the US portion of reserves will only be reduced from 45% to 37%). Sounds reasonable. But these economists remind me of the analysts who every year claim the price of gold will fall – they can't see the bigger implications and frequently miss the forest for the trees. CheckWhat your friendly government economist doesn't reveal and the mainstream journalist doesn't report (or doesn't understand) is that in the event of a US bankruptcy, euro implosion, or similar financial catastrophe, access to gold would almost certainly be limited. If Germany were to actually need its gold, regardless of the reason, any request for transfer or sale would be… difficult. There would be, at the very least, delays. At worst such requests could be denied, depending on the circumstances at the time. That's not just bad – it defeats the purpose of owning gold. But this still doesn't capture the greater significance of this action. First, it reinforces the growing recognition that gold is money. Physical bullion isn't just a commodity, a day-trading vehicle, or even an investment. It's a store of value, a physical hedge against monetary dislocations. In the ultimate extreme, it's something you can use to pay for goods or services when all other means fail. It is precisely those who don't recognize this historical fact who stand to lose the most in an adverse monetary event. (Hello, government economist.) Second, here's the quote that reveals the ultimate, backstop reason for the move: Bundesbank stated it is a "pre-emptive" measure "in case of a currency crisis." Germany's central bank thinks a currency crisis is really possible. That's a very sobering fact. We agree, of course: history is very clear on this. No fiat currency has lasted forever. Eventually they all fail. Whether the dollar goes to zero or merely becomes a second-class currency in the global arena, the root cause for failure is universal and inevitable: continual and perpetual dilution of the currency. Some level of currency crisis is inescapable at this point because absolutely nothing has changed with worldwide debt levels, deficit spending, and currency printing, except that they all continue to increase. While many economists and politicians claim these actions are necessary and are leading us to recovery, it's clear we have yet to experience the fallout from spending more than we have and printing the difference. There will be serious and painful consequences, sooner or later of an inflationary nature, and the average person's standard of living will be greatly reduced. And now there are rumblings that the Netherlands and Azerbaijan may move their gold back home. If this trend gathers steam, we could easily see a "gold run" in the same manner history has seen bank runs. Add in high inflation or a major currency event and a very ugly vicious cycle could ignite. CheckmateIf other countries follow Germany's path or the mistrust between central bankers grows, the next logical step would be to clamp down on gold exports. It would be the beginning of the kind of stringent capital controls Doug Casey and a few others have warned about for years. Think about it: is it really so far-fetched to think politicians wouldn't somehow restrict the movement of gold if their currencies and/or economies were failing? Remember, India keeps tinkering with ideas like this already. What this means for you and me is that moving gold outside your country – especially if you're a US citizen – could be banned. Fuel would be added to the fire by blaming gold for the dollar's ongoing weakness. Don't think you need to store gold outside your country? The metal you attempt to buy, sell, or trade within your borders could be severely regulated, taxed, tracked, or even frozen in such a crisis environment. You'd have easier access to foreign-held bullion, depending on the country and the specific events. None of this would take place in a vacuum. Transferring dollars internationally would certainly be tightly restricted as well. Moving almost any asset across borders could be declared illegal. Even your movement outside your country could come under increased scrutiny and restriction. The hint that all this is about to take place would be when politicians publicly declare they would do no such a thing. You could quite literally have 24 hours to make a move. If your resources were not already in place, even the most nimble of us would have a very hard time making arrangements. Once the door is closed, attempting to move restricted assets across international borders would come with serious penalties, almost certainly including jail time. In such a tense atmosphere, you could easily be labeled an enemy of the state just for trying to remove yourself from harm's way. The message is clear: storing some gold outside your country of residence is critical at this point, and the window of time for doing so is getting smaller. Don't just hope for the best; do something about it while you still can. The minor effort made now could pay major dividends in the future. Besides, you won't be any worse off for having some precious metals stored elsewhere. The best chess players in the world aren't that way because they can see the next move. They're champions because they can see the next 14 moves. You only have to see the government's next two moves to "win" this game. I suggest learning what countermoves you can take now are, before your government declares checkmate. |
| Fabian Calvo- Another Bubble in the Housing Market is Coming – YouTube Posted: 31 Jan 2013 07:01 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  |
| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Erase Most of Yesterday’s Gains Posted: 31 Jan 2013 07:00 PM PST Gold saw a $4 gain at $1680.50 in Asia, but it then fell to as low as $1657.85 in New York and ended with a loss of 0.7%. Silver slipped to as low as $31.092 and ended with a loss of 1.66%. |
| The Consolidated "Currency Wars" Chart Posted: 31 Jan 2013 06:40 PM PST While we have pointed out various divergences among risk assets, the deterioration in macro fundamentals, the dismal earnings picture, and the potential for various geopolitical hotspots to ignite, there appears to be only one chart that the US equity market is willing to pay any attention to, for now - that of global central bank balance sheet size. The ongoing competitive devaluations of developed market currencies is a by-product of policymakers' attempts to (repress) lower real bond yields and, as Credit Suisse notes, has an important (and potentially vicious) element of contagion to it (as Europe is finding out currently): currency appreciation continues until the deflationary pressures associated with an overly strong currency become too large and the country is forced to join in the trend of central bank balance sheet expansion. For now, it appears stocks are 'allowed' to rise, gold is suppressed, and balance sheets are expanding, but as we saw in Q4 2012, there comes a time when reality interjects (albeit briefly).
Thanks to the Fed and the BoJ most recently, the USD-rebased balance of the world's largest central banks (Fed+BoE+ECB+PBoC+BoJ) has begun to expand - and sure enough Bernanke's policy tool - the Russell 2000 - has recoupled...
but gold, in whatever way you believe (via leases or direct manipulation) appears to be held back (for now)...
and Europe is now under pressure once again as its currency rises strongly, impacting its competitiveness (as we warned here and here) - and with its 'easing' off-balance-sheet, will it be forced to bring it back on balance-sheet?
As to when this 'repression' ends... Credit Suisse notes,
But, markets do not go up forever, just as occurred in Q4 2012, there are times when not even the man behind the curtain can maintain investor interest amid political uncertainty (Europe in 2013), valuations (earnings drop in 2013 pushing P/Es notably higher), macro deterioration (US starting the year in the red), and unilateral currency wars... |
| How The Stock Market Became The "Food Stamps" for the 1% Posted: 31 Jan 2013 06:03 PM PST Via Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog, The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it. Society is like a stew. If you don't stir it up every once in a while then a layer of scum floats to the top. When the rich wage war, it's the poor who die. The Stock Market: Food Stamps for the 1% That said, this article is not about the implementation of the surveillance state. I cover that pretty much daily these days. This post is more of a philosophical stream of consciousness; a guilty pleasure that I have not engaged in as of late. I have mentioned many times in the past that food stamps are just a payoff to the poor. While I think a permanent and expanding welfare state is completely and utterly destructive to an economy and culture, I do not demonize these folks. The vast majority of them would like to work and be productive. They are victims and this is being done to them quite intentionally. It creates dependency. It keeps them off the streets. It's an unspoken bribe plain and simple. The oligarchs do not want angry, roving, hungry masses on the streets while they strip mine what's left of the economy. Food stamps, disability and all sorts of other freebies take care of this segment of the population as the oligarchs continue on with their crimes and prepare for the day of reckoning (hence the surveillance grid). However, the oligarchs have another problem to deal with. This problem is the huge group of people that resides in between them and the poor. Ideally, they would like to shove all of them into the poverty category and keep them barely alive and on dole of the government. That way, the politically connected large corporations that do not pay taxes and receive bailouts can continue to pay them peasant wages while the government takes care of the rest. It's a win-win. The situation I just described is exactly what is happening as we speak and has been occurring at an ever frequent pace since the coup of 2008. This is exactly why people are buying guns, gold and are extremely negative on the economy and the future of the United States. I recently discussed this in my post Gallup Poll: Americans Most Negative on the Nation and Economy in 30 Years. If you read the Gallup data in detail you will see that this level of negative readings only occur during very bad economic times. The average person can feel themselves getting poorer despite the nonsense spewed by the mainstream media. Their standards of living don't lie and no amount of false statistics can change that. As John Adams famously said: Facts are stubborn things. Stubborn indeed; and this is where the stock market comes into play. Banana Ben Bernanke has not made it a secret that he is directly targeting a higher stock market with his purchasing power destroying money printing. He has made that clear from pretty much the beginning. The idea is that a higher market will improve the balance sheets of pensions, individual retirement accounts and also create a psychological impact that will make people feel confident and thus boost the economy. It is the last point that is of course most important. If the latter does not happen then the boost in stock prices is merely an unsustainable bubble that will burst and all the "good" that was done to balance sheets will be undone with a vengeance at some point in the future. The latter did not happen. As much as people like to talk about the 1% versus the 99%, the real winners since 2008 have been the oligarchs. The 0.01% have benefited much more than any other class in terms of both money and power. It's the 0.01% versus everyone else and the quicker we recognize that, stop fighting amongst ourselves, and push them aside the better it will be for our species.
As I have repeatedly stated, the oligarchs are using the current period in between financial panics to put in place the surveillance grid they plan to use on the population once the SHTF. It is of extreme importance that the masses stay apathetic and obedient in the process. Hence food stamps for the poor and the stock market for the 1%. I grew up around the 1%. It's my socioeconomic class. I know the 1% intimately. There's nothing special about the 1%. Most of them are very average and very lucky. Of course there are many, many exceptions but there are exception in all classes. Sure they are slightly more educated than the rest of the population, but on average are not any more intellectually curious than the 99% and are just as easily manipulated by propaganda and more importantly money. More than any other group, the 1% has been convinced that the stock market represents some sort of leading indicator of wealth and prosperity. Nothing could be further from the truth. Sure, the stock market can function as such an indicator. It is such an indicator when the rising stock market reflects a dynamic, capitalist economy where new industries and companies are rising to the top and improving standards of living for the populace. It represents the opposite indicator when it merely reflects the ownership interests of the oligarchs in a crony-capitalist, fascist economy that is picking away at the dying carcass of what little economic freedom still remains. This is what a rising stock market actually represents today. When people look at it they should understand it is merely a measure of the oligarchs getting wealthier and more powerful and you becoming more of a debt slave. It represents their interests in multinational corporations with record profit margins because they refuse to pay their employees a living wage. A rising stock market today is actually a leading indicator of the destruction of the middle class, cultural destitution and a society in collapse. The stock market is like slop in a pigpen. It is a key instrument used to keep the 1% from getting antsy. Unlike the middle class (a group that isn't falling for any of the tricks), many of the 1% work on Wall Street or related industries and own stocks. Many of the people in the 1% are at least wealthy and connected enough to still cause serious problems for the oligarchs. They must be kept quiet as the coup that started in 2008 is brought to fruition. Then they will be left high and dry like everyone else. This is the role that the stock market is playing at the moment. So as the 1% sits around analyzing a casino, the poor collect food stamps and the middle class dies. Many in the 1% look upon the poor on food stamps with disdain, yet little do they realize they are on food stamps as well. It's called the stock market. |
| The Gold Price in the Last Three Days Gained $27 and Lost $19.30 Remains in Uptrend Posted: 31 Jan 2013 05:47 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1660.60 Change : -19.30 or -1.15% Silver Price Close Today : 31.335 Change : -0.817 or -2.54% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.995 Change : 0.747 or 1.43% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01887 Change : -0.000270 or -1.41% Platinum Price Close Today : 1673.90 Change : -13.90 or -0.82% Palladium Price Close Today : 745.30 Change : -5.70 or -0.76% S&P 500 : 1,498.11 Change : -3.85 or -0.26% Dow In GOLD$ : $172.54 Change : $ 7.50 or 4.54% Dow in GOLD oz : 8.347 Change : 0.363 or 4.54% Dow in SILVER oz : 442.34 Change : 9.69 or 2.24% Dow Industrial : 13,860.58 Change : -49.84 or -0.36% US Dollar Index : 79.20 Change : -0.057 or -0.07% The GOLD PRICE lost $19.30 today and closed at $1,660.60. Silver did no better, down 81.7 cents to 3133.5. Both 5 day charts look the same, and the look is an Island Reversal top. Gold gapped from about $1,666 to $1672 yesterday, then traded sideways between 1675 and 1682. Today it gapped down about $1,679, and never settled till it hit $1,659.33. But if it's that week, why did it stop slap on Tuesday's close? Why not fall further? The SILVER PRICE chart is the same, save with different numbers. Gapped up yesterday from 3140c to over 3200c, traded sideways in a tight range, then fell off at 3180c today down to 3126 and ended at 3133.5c. How will we know whether that is an island reversal in truth? Both will fall tomorrow hard. If instead the trade up into the range where they gapped down today, then it's not. Looking at a 5 day chart twists your perspective. You might get an early warning signal there, but you have to factor that into the perspective of a longer term chart. In the last three days, silver gained 139.6 cents, then lost back 81.7 today for a net gain of 57.9 cents. Gold gained $27, lost $19.30 today, for a net rise of $7.70. Now back off further. Since mid December silver and gold have built even-sided triangles working further and further into the point. Only the spike low on 4 January violates that triangle, and that was a false breakout that never followed through. Trend for both since 4 January has been, and remains, up. Today in particular the GOLD PRICE closed below its 200 DMA ($1,663.32), no cheerful sign. Yet it remains in that uptrend. Silver remained above its 20 DMA (3123c, near the low at 3126c where lots of buyers were hiding) and above its 300 DMA (3113c). I know this roller coaster ride up one day and down the next wears out your stomach and maybe has you, too, reaching for your wastebasket. That's precisely why I don't trade futures or on margin. From the perspective of a BULL market and 100% paid for silver and gold, I can watch those declines with a lot more aplomb than when it's margined and everything I own and my wife and children are on the line. I like to sleep at night. Perspective: It makes all the difference in the world. If you're an ant looking up at an elephant, you have no idea what that colossus is. Likewise, an elephant can't tell much about an ant without a magnifying glass. I'll explain presently. Looky there! Stocks were wallowing in a deep swamp today. Spent most of the day underwater and fighting gravity. Dow lost 49.84 (0.36%) to 13,860.58. S&P500 swam alongside, losing 3.85 (0.26%) to fall below 1,500 and rest at 1,498.11. Both of 'em are still as oversold as the efficiency of Government Sponsored Enterprises or the statecraft of Bernard O'Bama. There's a lot of air beneath that ledge stocks are standing on. They could fall to 13,625 without even damaging the chart too much. Don't count on aubstantially higher stock prices soon. Yep, I'm still wearing out my eyeballs staring at the Dow in Gold chart. Last six days it has formed what I must call an Island Reversal Top, unless it gainsays that somehow. Similar but not selfsame pattern shows on the Dow in Silver chart. Those charts argue stocks have run out of gas against metals. Only thing worse than having to work as an usher at the ballet is watching these rotten fiat currencies. Pure torture. US dollar index has fallen plumb against the bottom boundary of its trading channel, and now must rally or fall through that trap door and slide. Stepping back, the Dollar index has been trending down since its July high at 84.10. Today it lost another 5.7 basis points (0.7%) to wind up at 79.204. Here's more perspective for y'all: dollar index peaked in June 2001 at 121.21, so holding them green yankee dollars has cost you 35% of your purchasing power since then. Yeah, buddy, that dollar and them bonds and CDs are a going Jessie! What of the other scrofulous fiat currencies today? Euro keeps on rising. Gained another 0.1% today and closed at $1.3578. If it clears this area, it's liable to run for $1.4000, where it will be even more sharply, preposterously overvalued than it is now. Yen made a new low close, down another 0.5% to 109.26 cents/Y100. Nice Government Men in the ECB must be puking in their wastebaskets every time they look at that Euro/Yen chart. They've been snaked by the Japanese in the currency war. On 31 January 1861 the Republic of Louisiana seized the US Mint at New Orleans. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.  |
| Peter Schiff & Doug Casey About Gold, Dollar Collapse & US Fed Posted: 31 Jan 2013 05:46 PM PST In a recent interview, Doug Casey talks with Peter Schiff about his expectations of the gold price and the future of the dollar. They discuss the role of the central bank(s) in today's debt crisis and conclude that the Fed is trapped. They end with some tips on where individuals and investors can go to with their money. The gold price will exceed $5,000Peter Schiff believes that the gold price will rise fast in the coming years. His prediction has always been $5,000. In fact, he believes gold will go much higher, but it is impossible to tell when exactly. It will not be in ten or twenty years; the sharp price increase should be rather imminent (somewhere in the coming few years). In order for gold to rise to those price levels, more people need to recognize what really is going on. History shows that assets can be mispriced for a long time. It all depends on perception. The average investor and certainly the institutional money are clueless with respect to the true state of the global economy, the ugly future of the dollar and other fiat currencies, the rate of inflation, etc. Most people just look at the fact that the gold price has risen and think it is sort of a bubble, not understanding the fundamental reasons why it is up.
How the US Fed is facilitating the collapse of the dollarOne of the biggest casualties, other than individual liberty, is going to be the value of the dollar. How does the government plan on financing all of its expense as they're not going to raise taxes on middle-class Americans? They are willing to raise taxes on the rich. A lot of this is going to be financed by the central bank. Inflation is a tax that the government is going to levy. It is going to hit everybody because inflation is a tax on your money. It is also a tax on the value of our wages. The government is going to confiscate the purchasing power of people's assets and spend it on services, social security, national defense, Medicare, etc. To avoid that inflation tax, one has to avoid the currency that is being inflated, which is the dollar. There are ways to do that, for instance by owning gold and silver, foreign assets or foreign stocks … assets that the federal reserve cannot print. The country that is most likely to print the most amount of money is the US. There is a monthly 50 billion trade deficit. The point is that printing is really not free; it becomes very expensive but people don't necessarily associate the rising prices (think the cost of gasoline or food) with the tax. Most people do not understand that the government is the source of inflation. The central bankers apply the Keynesian practices by printing money to avoid deflation. Inflation and government stimulus is their salvation. Peter Schiff says:
The government runs budget deficits of over a trillion dollars a year. The Fed is printing and monetizing 90% of it. That means the federal government only has to sell 100 or 200 billion dollar of treasuries to private investors. If you take the Fed out of it, the government has to sell a trillion-and-a-half for two trillion dollars. Who is going to buy those bonds? As a consequence, interest rates (the cost of money) will go up. The treasury market is a bubble, just like the bond bubble in Japan which incidentally might actually break before the American one. The US economy is now so addicted to debt that the highest affordable interest rate is zero. The national debt is financed at these low rates. The payments in interest on the 16.5 trillion dollar debt are about 300 billion dollar. What if in two or three years the debts were to be twenty trillion and interest rates five percent. That would result in 1 trillion yearly interest payments. The only justification for keeping rates so low is that the Fed knows that any increase in rates will collapse the (already phony) economy. The economy is artificial. You can't just keep printing money and monetize the debt and buy bonds without the dollar imploding. What has helped the US recently was the European crisis. Worries about the European debt have led to an increased demand for US Treasuries (even though the US had more debt than Europe). The the fears are subsiding in Europe, be it temporarily. If all of those money flows into the US Treasury reverse, it would cause the dollar to weaken and put pressure on the Fed to raise rates. But the Fed can not raise rates, so they will give investors around the world the perception that they will never really remove the liquidity. That is when you will really get a run out of the dollar. The Fed will be really trapped as they need to chose between a collapse of the dollar (leading to runaway inflation) or an aggressive rise of the interest rates (collapsing the whole economy in a way worse than 2008). Where should individuals go with their moneyPeople should get out of US dollars and anticipate the future. Everyone's objective should be to dissipate the revaluation of assets. The main idea is to buy assets when they are cheap and not highly demanded, in order to sell them when they are expensive because of a high demand. The biggest change that is coming in the global economy is the realignment of living standards in the global packing order. America has been on the top for a long time because:
That is not America of today. Nowadays, the US is characterized by a standard of living which is the result of debt. The US has:
Peter Schiff thinks a collapse in the dollar is inevitable, which will dramatically reduce the standard of living of Americans. When the dollar collapses, it is not doing in the vacuum. If the dollar loses value, it is doing so relative to other currencies. It implies that the purchasing power is being shifted to somebody else. Other countries' currencies will appreciate. It means that people in other parts of the world will become wealthier, particularly in emerging markets and Southeast Asia. The hard working people over there, who save their money, will see a big rise in their living standards. "You want to be invested in those economies, in those currencies." |
| Guest Post: The Linchpin Lie: How Global Collapse Will Be Sold To The Masses Posted: 31 Jan 2013 04:46 PM PST Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market blog, In our modern world there exist certain institutions of power. Not government committees, alphabet agencies, corporate lobbies, or even standard military organizations; no, these are the mere "middle-men" of power. The errand boys. The well paid hitmen of the global mafia. They are not the strategists or the decision makers. Instead, I speak of institutions which introduce the newest paradigms. Who write the propaganda. Who issue the orders from on high. I speak of the hubs of elitism which have initiated nearly every policy mechanism of our government for the past several decades. I am talking about the Council On Foreign Relations, the Tavistock Institute, the Heritage Foundation (a socialist organization posing as conservative), the Bilderberg Group, as well as the corporate foils that they use to enact globalization, such as Monsanto, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, the Carlyle Group, etc. Many of these organizations and corporations operate a revolving door within the U.S. government. Monsanto has champions, like Donald Rumsfeld who was on the board of directors of its Searle Pharmaceuticals branch, who later went on to help the company force numerous dangerous products including Aspartame through the FDA. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have a veritable merry-go-round of corrupt banking agents which are appointed to important White House and Treasury positions on a regular basis REGARDLESS of which party happens to be in office. Most prominent politicians are all members of the Council on Foreign Relations, an organization which has openly admitted on multiple occasions that their goal is the destruction of U.S. sovereignty and the formation of a "one world government" or "supranational union" (their words, not mine). However, one organization seems to rear its ugly head at the forefront of the most sweeping mass propaganda operations of our time, and has been linked to the creation of the most atrocious military methodologies, including the use of false flag events. I am of course referring to the Rand Corporation, a California based "think tank" whose influence reaches into nearly every sphere of our society, from politics, to war, to entertainment. The Rand Corporation deals in what I would call "absolute gray". The goal of the group from its very inception was to promote a social atmosphere of moral ambiguity in the name of personal and national priority. They did this first through the creation of "Rational Choice Theory"; a theory which prescribes that when making any choice, an individual (or government) must act as if balancing costs against benefits to arrive at an action that maximizes personal advantage. Basically, the ends justify the means, and moral conscience is not a factor to be taken seriously if one wishes to be successful. Hilariously, rational choice theory has been attacked in the past by pro-socialist (collectivist) critics as "extreme individualism"; a philosophy which gives us license to be as "self serving" as possible while feeling patriotic at the same time. In reality, the socialists should have been applauding Rand Corporation all along. What Rand had done through its propaganda war against the American people was to infuse the exact culture of selfishness needed to push the U.S. towards the socialist ideal. At the onset of any communist or national socialist society (sorry socialists, but they do indeed come from the same collectivist mindset), the masses are first convinced to hand over ultimate power to the establishment in order to safeguard THEMSELVES, not others. That is to say, the common collectivist man chooses to hand over his freedoms and participate in totalitarianism not because he wants what is best for the world, but because he wants what is best for himself, and he believes servitude to the system will get him what he wants with as little private sacrifice as possible (you know, except for his soul…). The psychologist Carl Jung notes in his observations of collectivism in Nazi Germany and Stalinist Russia that most citizens of those nations did not necessarily want the formation of a tyrannical oligarchy, but, they went along with it anyway because they feared for their own comfort and livelihoods. Many a German supported the Third Reich simply because they did not want to lose a cushy job, or a steady paycheck, or they liked that the "trains ran on time". Socialism is by far the most selfish movement in history, despite the fact that they claim to do what they do "for the greater good of the greater number". Rand also used Rational Choice Theory as a means to remove questions of principle from the debate over social progress. Rational Choice propaganda commonly presents the target audience with a false conundrum. A perfect example would be the hardcore propaganda based television show '24' starring Kiefer Sutherland, in which a government "anti-terrorism" agent is faced with a controlled choice scenario in nearly every episode. This choice almost always ends with the agent being forced to set aside his morals and conscience to torture, kill, and destroy without mercy, or, allow millions of innocents to die if he does not. Of course, the real world does not work this way. Life is not a chess game. Avenues to resolution of any crisis are limited only by our imagination and intelligence, not to mention the immense number of choices that could be made to defuse a crisis before it develops. Yet, Rand would like you to believe that we (and those in government) are required to become monstrous in order to survive. That we should be willing to forgo conscience and justice now for the promise of peace and tranquility later. This is the age old strategy of Centralization; to remove all choices within a system, by force or manipulation, until the masses think they have nothing left but the choices the elites give them. It is the bread and butter of elitist institutions like Rand Corporation, and is at the core of the push for globalization. In my studies on the developing economic disaster (or economic recovery depending on who you talk to) I have come across a particular methodology many times which set off my analyst alarm (or spidey-sense, if you will). This latest methodology, called "Linchpin Theory", revolves around the work of John Casti, a Ph.D. from USC, "complexity scientist" and "systems theorist", a Futurist, and most notably, a former employee of Rand Corporation: Casti introduces his idea of "Linchpin Theory" in his book "X-Events: The Collapse Of Everything", and what I found most immediately striking about the idea of "Linchpin Events" was how they offered perfect scapegoat scenarios for catastrophes that are engineered by the establishment. Linchpin Theory argues that overt social, political, and technological "complexity" is to blame for the most destructive events in modern human history, and it is indeed an enticing suggestion for those who are uneducated and unaware of the behind the scenes mechanics of world events. Casti would like you to believe that political and social tides are unguided and chaotic; that all is random, and disaster is a product of "chance" trigger events that occur at the height of a malfunctioning and over-complicated system. What he fails to mention, and what he should well know being a member of Rand, is that global events do not evolve in a vacuum. There have always been those groups who see themselves as the "select", and who aspire to mold the future to there personal vision of Utopia. It has been openly admitted in myriad official observations on historical events that such groups have had a direct hand in the advent of particular conflicts. For instance, Casti would call the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria an "X-event", or linchpin, leading to the outbreak of WWI, when historical fact recalls that particular crisis was carefully constructed with the specific mind to involve the U.S. Norman Dodd, former director of the Committee to Investigate Tax Exempt Foundations of the U.S. House of Representatives, testified that the Committee was invited to study the minutes of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace as part of the Committee's investigation. The Committee stated:
So, long before the advent of Ferdinand's assassination, plans were being set in motion by globalist interests to draw the U.S. into a large scale conflict in order to "alter the life, or thinking, of the entire culture". When a group of people set out to direct thinking and opportunity towards a particular outcome, and the end result is a culmination of that outcome, it is obviously not coincidence, and it is definitely not providence. It can only be called subversive design. In the economic arena, one might say that the collapse of Lehman Bros. was the "linchpin" that triggered the landslide in the derivatives market which is still going on to this day. However, the derivatives market bubble was a carefully constructed house of cards, deliberately created with the help of multiple agencies and institutions. The private Federal Reserve had to artificially lower interest rates and inject trillions upon trillions into the housing market, the international banks had to invest those trillions into mortgages that they KNEW were toxic and likely never to be repaid. The Federal Government had to allow those mortgages to then be chopped up into derivatives and resold on the open market. The ratings agencies had to examine those derivatives and obviously defunct mortgages and then stamp them AAA. The SEC had to ignore the massive fraud being done in broad daylight while sweeping thousands of formal complaints and whistle blowers under the rug. This was not some "random" event caused by uncontrolled "complexity". This was engineered complexity with a devious purpose. The creation of the derivatives collapse was done with foreknowledge, at least by some. Goldman Sachs was caught red handed betting against their OWN derivatives instruments! Meaning they knew exactly what was about to happen in the market they helped build! This is called Conspiracy… One might attribute Casti's idea to a sincere belief in chaos, and a lack of insight into the nature of globalism as a brand of religion. However, in his first and as far as I can tell only interview with Coast To Coast Radio, Casti promotes catastrophic "X-Events" as a "good thing" for humanity, right in line with the Rand Corporation ideology. Casti, being a futurist and elitist, sees the ideas of the past as obsolete when confronted with the technological advancements of the modern world, and so, describes X-event moments as a kind of evolutionary "kickstart", knocking us out of our old and barbaric philosophies of living and forcing us, through trial by fire, to adapt to a more streamlined culture. The linchpin event is, to summarize Casti's position, a culture's way of "punishing itself" for settling too comfortably into its own heritage and traditions. In other words, WE will supposedly be to blame for the next great apocalypse, not the elites… I might suggest that Casti's attitude seems to be one of general indifference to human suffering in the wake of his "X-Events", and that he would not necessarily be opposed to the deaths of millions if it caused the "advancement" of humanity towards a particular ideology. His concept of "advancement" and ours are likely very different, though. I suspect that he is well aware that X-Events are actually tools at the disposal of elitists to generate the "evolution" he so desires, and that evolution includes a collectivist result. With almost every major economy on the globe on the verge of collapse and most now desperately inflating, taxing, or outright stealing in order to hide their situation, with multiple tinderbox environments being facilitated in the Pacific with China, North Korea, and Japan, and in the Middle East and Africa with Egypt, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, Yemen, Mali, etc., there is no doubt that we are living in a linchpin-rich era. It is inevitable that one or more of these explosive tension points will erupt and cause a chain reaction around the planet. The linchpin and the chain reaction will become the focus of our epoch, rather than the men who made them possible in the first place. Strangely, Casti's theory was even recently featured in an episode of the ABC mystery/drama show "Castle", called "Linchpin" (what else?), in which a writer turned detective uncovers a plot by a "shadow group" to use the research of the innocent Dr. Nelson Blakely (apparently based on Casti) to initiate a collapse of the U.S. economy by assassinating the ten-year-old daughter of a prominent Chinese businessman, triggering a dump of U.S. Treasuries by China and fomenting WWIII: http://www.alterna-tv.com/castle/xevents.htm Now, I think anyone with any sense can see where this is going. Casti and Rand Corporation are giving us a glimpse into the future of propaganda. This is what will be written in our children's history books if the globalists have their way. The fact that Linchpin Theory is featured in a primetime television show at all is a testament to Rand Corporation's influence in the media. But, as for the wider picture, are the trigger points around us really just a product of complex coincidence? Not a chance. Each major global hot-spot today can easily be linked back to the designs of international corporate and banking interests and the puppet governments they use as messengers. Casti claims that "X-events" and "linchpins" cannot be accurately predicted, but it would seem that they can certainly be purposely instigated. The globalists have stretched the whole of the world thin. They have removed almost every pillar of support from the edifice around us, and like a giant game of Jenga, are waiting for the final piece to be removed, causing the teetering structure to crumble. Once this calamity occurs, they will call it a random act of fate, or a mathematical inevitability of an overly complex system. They will say that they are not to blame. That we were in the midst of "recovery". That they could not have seen it coming. Their solution will be predictable. They will state that in order to avoid such future destruction, the global framework must be "simplified", and what better way to simplify the world than to end national sovereignty, dissolve all borders, and centralize nation states under a single economic and political ideal? Is it the Hegelian Dialectic all over again? Yes. Is it old hat feudalism and distraction? Yes. But, I have to hand it to Casti and Rand Corporation; they certainly have refined the argument for collectivism, centralization, technocracy, slavery, moral relativism, and false-flag dupery down to a near science… |
| Gold price rigging is as old as gold itself Posted: 31 Jan 2013 03:55 PM PST Writing today for Forbes, the economist, fund manager, and author Nathan Lewis proves that Harry Truman was right about gold as well as everything else insofar as "the only thing new in the world is the history you don't know." |
| The Matterhorn interview: Robert Blumen on price formation in gold Posted: 31 Jan 2013 03:48 PM PST 5:45p ET Thursday, January 31, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Interviewed by Lars Schall for Matterhorn Asset Management's Gold Switzerland Internet site, the economist Robert Blumen explains why gold mine supply is of little relevance to the gold price, gold being largely hoarded and always available to the market rather than consumed or destroyed like other commodities. Blumen also comments favorably about GATA's complaint that Western central banks are surreptitiously active in the gold market to restrain the price. The interview is headlined "What Is Really Key for the Price Formation of Gold?" and it's posted at Gold Switzerland's Internet site here: http://goldswitzerland.com/what-is-key-for-the-price-formation-of-gold/ CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT GoldMoney adds Singapore vaulting option In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, Toronto, and the United Kingdom, now with GoldMoney you can store gold and silver in Singapore in a high-security vault operated by Brink's Singapore Pte Limited. To celebrate the launch of this storage option, GoldMoney is offering a discount on buy and exchange fees at this vault for any orders above US$10,000 (or the equivalent) until January 31, 2013. Tthe gold buy rate is 0.98%, while the silver rate is 1.99%. Metal exchanges into Brink's Singapore will also be discounted for this period and will be charged at 0.78% for gold and 1.75% for silver. Simply place your order online and the above rates apply automatically until January 31, 2013, 15.00 UK time. To find out more about the new vault, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/singapore?gmrefcode=gata GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults. It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: California Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT How to profit in the new year with silver -- Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million. Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets. To learn about this report, please visit: http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp... |
| Monetary Base Breaking Out! Will Gold Prices F... Posted: 31 Jan 2013 03:29 PM PST SafeHaven |
| Marc Faber Sounds A Lot Like Warren Buffett – YouTube Posted: 31 Jan 2013 02:41 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  |
| Lessons From A Successful Investor: Control Your Worst Enemy, Your Emotion Posted: 31 Jan 2013 02:21 PM PST During his latest interview on King World News, Rick Rule explained the most fundamental principles to be a successful investor. He has a proven track of record, as one of the most successful resource investor. The key to success is very simple: control your emotions. But let's be honest, it is not that simple in reality. Insight 1: "Your expectations for the future are set by your experiences of the immediate past." Between 2009 and mid 2011, both the metals and the shares have been performing very well. People's expectations for the future have been influenced by their most recent experiences. People should be looking at the current consolidation period in the metals as an opportunity and buy the dips. The gold shares have been smashed between 40% (seniors) and 70% (juniors) since 2010. Instead of looking at the buying opportunity, "people feel depressed" says Eric King. Insight 2: The brain of a successful investor overwhelms his emotions In a recent article, Rick Rule described today's mental state of most investors: "It is like someone walked in the street and ignored every store that a for sale sign and went to the only store that had the full price, no discounts ever sign. Now is the time to time to buy as we are in a bear market. We sell high in a bull market; we buy low in a bear market." The key is that an investor must master his/her emotions. "Either you take advantage of your emotion, or you will be taken advantage of your emotion." As an example, he refers to investors emotions in 2010 compared to today (in particular when it comes to the shares). The stocks are much cheaper today, but investors feel more depressed. The better gold stocks are substantially cheaper; they can be bought today with a 60% reduction. Yet people "feel depressed" about it. From an earlier interview: "In resources you are either a contrarian or a victim, the choice is yours." Insight 3: People want to see the facts demonstrated Especially the metals have a hard time currently. That is very strange if you think about it. Fiat banking and currencies are in the worst situation ever. A real confidence crisis is brewing below the surface, and it is crystal clear for everyone who can look with an open mind to what is happening. Rick Rule says: "The root word of confidence is "con." He believes that more people over time will become comfortable with gold and prefer metals over currency which are one by one losing their value. Yet, people do not see the facts, so they are not comfortable. Gold's bigger picture Rick Rule shared some high level thoughts about the gold market:
|
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Bill Gross Says 'Buy Gold' Posted: 31 Jan 2013 02:18 PM PST  This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Everybody in the Industry Knows the US Doesn't Have the Gold Posted: 31 Jan 2013 01:56 PM PST In this week's talk with National Numismatics' Tom Cloud, he explains why Germany's gold repatriation is just the beginning, the US Mint's silver shortage will continue, and the big money is right about precious metals. Read More...  |
| Posted: 31 Jan 2013 01:52 PM PST January 31, 2013
You'd open it too, right? Right. Unfortunately, it was from Jason Farrell, the gentleman we've tasked with following what's "trending" on social media and reporting back to us. What was "hot"? The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) had just announced the U.S. economy shrank by 1/10% in the fourth quarter of 2012… as measured by GDP. Boring.
A quick breakdown of the BEA's assessment of economic activity in the fourth quarter looks like this: The BEA attributed the drop in the fourth-quarter GDP to defense cuts or the deleterious effects of Superstorm Sandy. Meaning after the greatest stimulus effort in human history, the economy was sidelined in three months… by the weather? What a shock.
"Of course," came the reply, "government spending itself is counted toward GDP, so any cut in government spending automatically produces a decline in GDP, hence the freakout over relatively minor defense cuts." If the reaction in the news was strong because of small pullbacks in defense spending, then we can only imagine how they'll react if "sequestration" kicks in. By the shrill voices of the commentators on NPR this morning, you'd think the sky has already fallen. It's fine to discuss cutting defense spending when you oppose the war in Afghanistan… but if it kicks GDP in the shins… Oy. Sometimes we wonder why we bother.
Stocks dropped on the news, too… bounced around a bit, and then continued their way down. The Dow closed 40 points lower than it began the day. The S&P shed 6 points… As we write this morning, the Dow sits at 13,926. The S&P, 1,502.
The noted economist Robert Murphy, in a Laissez Faire Club exclusive presentation we hosted last week, proffered this forecast:
Far be it for us to cast aspersions on the Fed's motives, but we do have an opinion rooted in history. In a chapter on the Mississippi Bubble in 1715-1720 we wrote for Financial Reckoning Day, we observed the effort to set up a central bank with the intention of buying up the nation's debt to keep the economy solvent… will end, umn, badly. But "at least interest rates are low," we quote our own Chris Mayer. And at least we can expect gold to remain the alternative currency of choice to the dollar, we add.
"Borrowing tens of thousands of dollars from the government — with no collateral and an uncertain payoff," writes our strategic short analyst Dan Amoss "is easier than getting a loan secured by a car." According to a new study published by credit bureau TransUnion, as of March 2012, 33% of all subprime student loans were 90 days or more past due. As the class of 2013 loan balance starts having to be repaid, the pile of delinquencies will only get bigger. Sound familiar? "Within a handful of years," Mr. Amoss warns, "U.S. taxpayers will be on the hook for over $100 billion in student loan defaults. The federal government makes about 93% of all student loans. "Most federal loans include interest rates of 7-8%. Political acrimony, as you'd imagine, will rise to unseen heights. The fight between Republicans and Democrats about how to pay for this loss will be ugly." [Ed. note. In 2013, the U.S. economy will suffer more consequences from the $1 trillion student loan bubble. In today's 5 PRO, Mr. Amoss suggests an easy way to get ahead of this trend... in a fashion we expect will be as lucrative as his 407% gain when Lehman hit the fan during the early stages of the subprime mortgage bust. See below...]
Tannock was referring to the global graphene race we first referenced in The 5 on June 11, 2012. It appears our initial estimates for graphene becoming "the new silicon" were a tad conservative, if you can believe that. "In Britain," CambridgeIP chairman Quentin Tannock told the BBC yesterday, "there is no appreciation of just how competitive the race for value in graphene is internationally, and just how focused and well-resourced our competitors are."
Of this, the Chinese lead the pack… and yes, Minister Willetts, the U.K. is far behind. The EU granted a billion euros toward two flagship projects: exploiting the "magic material" and modeling a human brain in a supercomputer. Tannock's a policy guy. He's alerting the U.K. government to the "risk that we might underinvest in graphene as an area and that therefore we might look back in 20 years' time with hindsight and say, 'That was wonderful, we got a lot of value, but we didn't get as much as we should have.'" As an investor, you can take Tannock's cue a lot more nimbly than the slow wheels of Britain's constitutional monarchy and get positioned now, right here.
Fifteen months ago, Mr. Desai checked his MF Global account to find his $580,000 had "magically" disappeared. This week, he opened it up to see 80% of his money back in the account. "I feel very relieved," he said. And if the bankruptcy judge signs off on the proposed settlement today, all United States customers will receive 93 cents back on every dollar disappeared. Hey, even MF Global had a good day… upon closing last night, their stock was up 8%, at 4 cents.
"This feels so good!" 18-year-old Savo Duvnjak proclaims. "I feel like I let go of all my negative energy. This last year was a tough one and I wanted to end it with a bang!" The Rage Room is available in Serbia for a modest fee, about $6, where you can go berserk… destroy bookshelves, beds, coat racks and framed photos… without the regret or the cleanup that usually comes with breaking your own things. "On average, we have one person a day, enough to keep us going" said Nikola Pausic, one of the room's founders, being covered by AP. "Dozens have come so far, people of all ages." Visitors take around five minutes to destroy the place. The service is, apparently, popular among women. [Ed note. Don't fret... you don't have to go to Serbia, necessarily, to use the facilities. The two teens who started this one based the concept on a similar "Anger Room" in Dallas, Texas, that they saw on the Internet. That one is a bit pricier at $75, but you get cooler things to break, like computers.]
"I suggest if they care so much, they should run, not walk to their nearest Tea Party meeting. We do care. In fact, three of our members were elected last year, one of which was a state assembly position. "Inasmuch as we live in California, we considered this quite an accomplishment. There are a lot of Americans who care and want to stop the disintegration that we are seeing in our country. Of course, the media are doing all they can to demean our efforts and give our citizens a completely inaccurate picture of who we are and what we are attempting to do. "We are working very hard to inform as many people as we possibly can — rumors of our death have been greatly exaggerated!" The 5: Your enthusiasm is infectious. However, we're skeptical any collective activity will yield the fruits you expect, draped in nostalgic patriotism or no… not a critique necessarily, just an observation.
"If only he could be here today!"
"It is a superb gem quality, grading an astounding MS-66 by PCGS, and a CAC certificate for exceptional condition and eye appeal. A close examination of the coin suggests that it may well be the very first specimen struck of the first year of the silver dollar, and was carefully preserved. "While the U.S. dollar has lost 98% of its value in just the past 100 years, this unique silver dollar has appreciated more than their creators could ever have imagined." The 5: Amen. Cheers, Addison Wiggin P.S. As the graphene developments continue to spew out into the mainstream, there's "unofficial" word circulating the Web that hasn't quite caught yet. If it ends up being the case, and Byron seems to think it might be, we could see graphene products filling store shelves in a matter of weeks. That's why Byron's updated his graphene thesis… and shows why graphene could take off before February's end, here.        |
| Posted: 31 Jan 2013 01:51 PM PST Dear CIGAs, I've been following markets, particularly gold, since 1978. I know the people that have been a part of it during that time. James Sinclair has always been one of the main players, if not THE main player. He's respected because over a period of time he is right. He called the 1980 Continue reading Jim's Mailbox |
| Posted: 31 Jan 2013 01:50 PM PST [url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Yesterday silver looked as if it was setting up to make another test run at stubborn overhead resistance near the $32.50 level, the top of its recent trading range. Today - well, to put it bluntly, "nothin' doin'". The ferocity of the retreat away from yesterday's high is a bit surprising to me given the big push higher yesterday. A couple of things - end of the month positioning is being seen in quite a bit of the markets that I regularly trade today and that is causing some pretty wild swings in price. Secondly, the continued meltdown in the mining sector shares (HUI and XAU) is completely undermining strength in the metals over at the Comex. Any time would-be bulls get ready to make their move into the metals, they take one look at the HUI or the XAU and then go back to sleep. There is no reason to chase precious metal prices higher as long as the mining shares continue to reek. The HUI is... |
| Monetary Base Breaking Out! Will Gold Prices Follow? Posted: 31 Jan 2013 01:29 PM PST After 18 months of going sideways, the monetary base appears to be breaking out. Given QE3 where the Fed is buying $85 billion a month of securities consisting of $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and $45 billion ... Read More...  |
| Posted: 31 Jan 2013 01:12 PM PST By now everyone has seen the reports of the unexpected decline in Q4 GDP reported yesterday. Of course, the decline was blamed by the White House and the media on a decline in Government spending. But I wanted to bring to everyone's attention the truth about this. If you pull up this link: Fact Check, you'll see that the Govt actually spent about $98 billion more in Q4 than in Q3. In addition, the Government rang up a $292.2 billion spending deficit. So I wonder what the real culprit was for the Q4 GDP contraction. Pretty much has to be autos and housing. I would recommend reading that link, but you can do the Government spending numbers yourself here: LINK Tomorrow we have the Government's non-farm payroll report for January. Quite honestly I haven't paid much attention to this number for the past few years other than to dissect out where the inconsistencies are with the report and the real world. One of the primary numbers I look at is the labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of the population that is "eligible" to participate in the Government defined labor pool as a percent of the total working age population. This metric is currently about as low as it was back in the early 1980's, meaning that the number of people working and paying taxes is significantly lower as a percent of the total population now than back then. The significance of that metric and the ramifications for further Government deficit spending and Treasury debt issuance to fund that spending are pretty obvious. That aside, I saw an article about which of the big box retailers would be closing the most stores this year. Barnes and Noble, Office Depot, JC Penny, Sears and Best Buy are closing anywhere from 10-20% of their store base. That's quite a bit of lost jobs to start the year: LINK Again, regardless of what the Government shows for jobs added tomorrow, keep in mind that as big retailers close stores, they cut their workforce. And this list is just the top-5 expected closings. I expect we'll see a lot more over the course of the next few months. When retail sales are slow, it means the consumers are tapped out - or maxed out on debt - and the economy is weak or in a state of general decline. And of course, when big box retailers close down a lot of stores, it adds to the growing glut of commercial real estate. Just a little truth tidbit if you're worried about the latest sell-off in the price of gold/silver. There's a lot of misinformation, disinformation and absurd ideas about what's going in the market. The truth is that the eastern hemisphere countries are vacuuming up physical gold and silver that they are having delivered domestically as quickly as the London/New York dealers are printing paper gold and silver contracts. You can see this in any given 24 hour trading period, where the price of the metals rises overnight until Hong Kong closes and London opens. Then the price sells off as the London/NYC bullion banks print up more paper contracts and dump them on the market. In fact, per today's Comex open interest report, currently there are about 13,900 contracts February open and potentially standing for delivery. This represents 63% of the gold listed as available for delivery on the Comex. This is an extraordinarily high amount in relation to the historical context at this point in any given delivery month cycle (first notice day). We'll see how this unfolds, but I doubt Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and CNBC are reporting this information. One more point of thought regarding yesterday's GDP report. The Government used a .6% inflation assumption (that's point six percent, annualized) in calculating Q4 GDP. Anyone out experience only a .6% increase in their necessities last year? Imagine how negative the GDP report would have been if the Government used a realistic inflation index... |
| Is Germany preparing for future capital controls? Posted: 31 Jan 2013 01:08 PM PST The best indicator of a chess player's form is his ability to sense the climax of the game. –Boris Spassky, World Chess Champion, 1969-1972 You've likely heard that the German central bank announced it will begin withdrawing part of its massive gold holdings from the United States as well as all its holdings from France. By 2020, Bundesbank says it wants half its gold reserves stored in its own vault in Germany. Why would it want to physically move the metal from New York? It's not as if US vaults are not secure, and since Germany already owns the gold, does it really matter where it sits? You may recall that Hugo Chávez did the same thing in late 2011, repatriating much of his country's gold reserves from London. However, this isn't a third-world dictatorship; Germany is a major ally of the US. So what's going on? Pawn to A3On the surface, it may seem innocuous for Germany to move some pallets of gold closer to home. Some observers note that since Russia isn't likely to be invading Germany anytime soon – one of the original reasons Germany had for storing its gold outside the country – the move is only natural and no big deal. But Germany's gold stash represents roughly 10% of the world's gold reserves, and the cost of moving it is not trivial, so we see greater import in the move. The Bundesbank said the purpose of the move was to "build trust and confidence domestically, and the ability to exchange gold for foreign currencies at gold-trading centers abroad within a short space of time." It's just satisfying the worries of the commoners, in the mainstream view, as well as giving themselves the ability to complete transactions faster. As evidence that it's nothing more than this, Bundesbank points out that half of Germany's gold will remain in New York and London (the US portion of reserves will only be reduced from 45% to 37%). Sounds reasonable. But these economists remind me of the analysts who every year claim the price of gold will fall – they can't see the bigger implications and frequently miss the forest for the trees. CheckWhat your friendly government economist doesn't reveal and the mainstream journalist doesn't report (or doesn't understand) is that in the event of a US bankruptcy, euro implosion, or similar financial catastrophe, access to gold would almost certainly be limited. If Germany were to actually need its gold, regardless of the reason, any request for transfer or sale would be… difficult. There would be, at the very least, delays. At worst such requests could be denied, depending on the circumstances at the time. That's not just bad – it defeats the purpose of owning gold. But this still doesn't capture the greater significance of this action. First, it reinforces the growing recognition that gold is money. Physical bullion isn't just a commodity, a day-trading vehicle, or even an investment. It's a store of value, a physical hedge against monetary dislocations. In the ultimate extreme, it's something you can use to pay for goods or services when all other means fail. It is precisely those who don't recognize this historical fact who stand to lose the most in an adverse monetary event. (Hello, government economist.) Second, here's the quote that reveals the ultimate, backstop reason for the move: Bundesbank stated it is a "pre-emptive" measure "in case of a currency crisis." Germany's central bank thinks a currency crisis is really possible. That's a very sobering fact. We agree, of course: history is very clear on this. No fiat currency has lasted forever. Eventually they all fail. Whether the dollar goes to zero or merely becomes a second-class currency in the global arena, the root cause for failure is universal and inevitable: continual and perpetual dilution of the currency. Some level of currency crisis is inescapable at this point because absolutely nothing has changed with worldwide debt levels, deficit spending, and currency printing, except that they all continue to increase. While many economists and politicians claim these actions are necessary and are leading us to recovery, it's clear we have yet to experience the fallout from spending more than we have and printing the difference. There will be serious and painful consequences, sooner or later of an inflationary nature, and the average person's standard of living will be greatly reduced. And now there are rumblings that the Netherlands and Azerbaijan may move their gold back home. If this trend gathers steam, we could easily see a "gold run" in the same manner history has seen bank runs. Add in high inflation or a major currency event and a very ugly vicious cycle could ignite. CheckmateIf other countries follow Germany's path or the mistrust between central bankers grows, the next logical step would be to clamp down on gold exports. It would be the beginning of the kind of stringent capital controls Doug Casey and a few others have warned about for years. Think about it: is it really so far-fetched to think politicians wouldn't somehow restrict the movement of gold if their currencies and/or economies were failing? Remember, India keeps tinkering with ideas like this already. What this means for you and me is that moving gold outside your country – especially if you're a US citizen – could be banned. Fuel would be added to the fire by blaming gold for the dollar's ongoing weakness. Don't think you need to store gold outside your country? The metal you attempt to buy, sell, or trade within your borders could be severely regulated, taxed, tracked, or even frozen in such a crisis environment. You'd have easier access to foreign-held bullion, depending on the country and the specific events. None of this would take place in a vacuum. Transferring dollars internationally would certainly be tightly restricted as well. Moving almost any asset across borders could be declared illegal. Even your movement outside your country could come under increased scrutiny and restriction. The hint that all this is about to take place would be when politicians publicly declare they would do no such a thing. You could quite literally have 24 hours to make a move. If your resources were not already in place, even the most nimble of us would have a very hard time making arrangements. Once the door is closed, attempting to move restricted assets across international borders would come with serious penalties, almost certainly including jail time. In such a tense atmosphere, you could easily be labeled an enemy of the state just for trying to remove yourself from harm's way. The message is clear: storing some gold outside your country of residence is critical at this point, and the window of time for doing so is getting smaller. Don't just hope for the best; do something about it while you still can. The minor effort made now could pay major dividends in the future. Besides, you won't be any worse off for having some precious metals stored elsewhere. The best chess players in the world aren't that way because they can see the next move. They're champions because they can see the next 14 moves. You only have to see the government's next two moves to "win" this game. I suggest learning what countermoves you can take now are, before your government declares checkmate. |
| Rock Beats Paper: Why the Volatility Can't Beat a Solid Foundation Posted: 31 Jan 2013 01:06 PM PST By Jason Sampognaro, Hard Assets Alliance Analyst It's easy to get caught up in the frenzy of the gold market. When prices are skyrocketing to new highs, everyone is scrambling to buy. When prices are falling, it's as if they've run out of lifeboats on the Titanic. Like lemmings, many investors walk off their own personal fiscal cliff by buying high and selling low. To avoid flocking with the herd, it's key to remember that gold is not an investment at all. It is a rock-solid savings account that beats any fiat paper governments can dish out. Last week, we went in-depth on why the US Federal Reserve will be printing much more fiat paper in the months and years to come and the effect this will have on the price of gold. The Fed's actions should be a red flag to anyone who is not currently holding a portion of their wealth in physical hard assets. In case you missed it, you can read it here. We believe gold will continue to climb higher in the future – a belief you may share. However, it can be difficult to swallow the volatility of the gold market. It's said that we often fear what we do not understand, so building on what we started in last week's article, let's continue to explore other drivers in gold's price. In this piece we'll dig into paper gold, discuss its two most common forms, and demystify how these instruments can cause swings in the price of gold. What Is Paper Gold? Commodities like gold are traded in many forms. We at Hard Assets Alliance recommend the physical kind. However, the physical market is tiny compared to the paper market. It's been said the ratio of paper gold to physical gold could be as high as 100:1. Judging from this fact, you can see how much influence the paper market can have on the price of gold. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and futures are two of the most common forms of paper, making up a majority of the paper market for gold. Gold ETFs, like GLD, are an easy way for inventors to gain exposure to precious metals without leaving the comfort of the stock market. Futures, on the other hand, are a much more advanced form of paper gold. They can also be quite risky. We'll discuss both of them below. Easy ETFs Exchange-traded funds are companies that purchase assets and sell shares on the stock market based on the value of those assets less administrative costs. Assets can be stocks, bonds, or commodities like gold. With most of the major gold ETFs, the actual gold is held in a vault; each share represents a fixed amount of that gold. For example, if an ETF owns 1 million ounces of gold and issues 10 million shares, each share would represent 1/10 of an ounce of gold. The ETF collects a fee each year to maintain the fund. For most of the gold ETFs, this fee is about 0.4%. Since ETFs are traded in the form of shares on the stock exchange, most investors don't have to step outside their comfort zone. They can buy and sell gold from their home computer just like they would any other stock. The fee of 0.4% that most ETFs charge is about what it would cost to buy, store, and insure a small amount of gold. ETFs bypassed many of the obstacles that regular investors faced when looking to purchase physical gold – obstacles like finding a reputable dealer, determining whether to store the gold at home or in a storage facility, and finding a buyer when the time comes to sell. It's not surprising that the easy trading of ETFs contributed to gold's meteoric climb. Since the beginning of the decade, total investment demand for gold has soared from only 4% in 2000 to a record of 45% in 2009. From 2003 to 2007 – the time when most of the major gold ETFs came into being – investment demand for gold shot up as millions of investors around the world were looking for exposure. It's important to note that owning shares in an ETF is not the same as owning physical gold. Only hold-in-your-hand, physical gold will provide you with a hedge against out-of-control government spending, debt, and money printing. Although each share of an ETF represents a specific amount of gold, you can't just walk up to the office of the fund manager and demand your gold. Read through the prospectus of a given gold ETF and you'll likely find that only "Authorized Participants" can redeem shares for actual physical metal. And even then, the fund usually has a minimum requirement for the amount of shares that can be redeemed. SPRD's gold ETF, GLD, requires a minimum of 100,000 shares for redemption. At today's prices, that would require a $1.6 million position in GLD – not exactly chump change for most investors. Perhaps the most unsettling aspect of GLD is that its operating agreement allows the fund to lend your gold holdings. It's almost like parking your money in a bank that doesn't allow you to make a withdrawal. In their inception, gold ETFs offered an easy way to gain exposure to gold. Millions of investors flocked to these funds, and the price of gold responded accordingly. However, after some scrutiny we find that owning gold ETFs does not equate to owning physical metal. Back to the Futures Futures originated as a way for both buyers and sellers of goods to lock in a future price to gain more stability in an unstable market. For example, let's look at the business transaction between the owner of a mint and a coin dealer. Because of the volatility of the gold market, the mint owner finds it difficult to predict what his quarterly revenues will be. The coin dealer is in the same boat, needing to model costs in order to plan finances accordingly. Therefore, the two agree to transact in the future for a fixed price and fixed quantity of gold. So, regardless of the spot price of gold on that day, the transaction will still take place and each will be able to plan more confidently. While the futures market began as a way to aid business, the majority of the participants in today's futures market are speculators. While business owners are looking for stability, speculators bank on volatility. They make their money off of large swings in price by betting on market movements in the future. Most often, contracts between speculators are purchased on loans from the exchange they are traded on. When the contract expires, the speculators pay back the loan and the gains from the trade are transferred from the speculator who guessed wrong to the speculator who guessed right. No actual physical metal changes hands. You can imagine that a futures exchange, which trades millions of contracts like this per day, could generate a lot of paper gold. As each contract matures, new ones take its place. Since most traders do not actually take delivery of the gold they trade, there is always a large amount of paper gold floating between long and short positions. With futures, all of this extra paper turns any short-term forecast in to a wild price swing in one direction or another. Imagine a multitude of traders taking a sudden short position, offering to sell gold at a price that is lower than the current spot because they're concerned about some sort of catastrophic drop. Now imagine all of these traders being able to leverage their positions by 10 times or more by taking out a loan from the exchange. Since the general trend is for the spot price to be lower than the futures contract price, we would expect the spot price to drop dramatically as all of these short positions began to mature. And as soon as the price swings downward, everyone begins to flock back into gold, causing the next spike. Knowledge Is Power As we already mentioned, understanding something helps conquer fears about it. We've shown how ETFs and futures – the two main players in the paper market – can drive the price of gold. Exchange-traded funds enabled many investors to take a position in gold they may not have otherwise taken. This ease of entry gave rise to an influx of demand and a healthy bump in the price. However, ETFs are on the decline. Does this mean a decline in the gold price? Hardly. Investors are wising up to the fact that rock beats paper and are moving their wealth into coins and bars as opposed to bullion proxies. Since 2009, total coin and bar purchases are up 96%, while net additions to exchange-traded products are down 73% over the same period. Futures serve to exacerbate the already volatile nature of gold due to the use of leverage by speculators. However, these wild swings in the short-term are mere blips on a curve that is upward and to the right in the long term. If you know why you own gold, you'll know not to get caught up in the short-term volatility. Now that you're armed with this knowledge, you can invest in gold more confidently and sleep well at night once you do. Leave the Paper Behind There couldn't be a better time to get into gold. Luckily, the Hard Assets Alliance offers all the benefits of an ETF without all of the extra baggage. Buying, storing, or taking delivery of physical gold can be done from the convenience of your home computer. With storage facilities all over the globe, you gain something most ETFs do not offer: international diversification. Download your free SmartMetals Action Kit for more details on how you can get the best kind of exposure to precious metals – the physical kind. |
| Doug Casey Interview with Peter Schiff Posted: 31 Jan 2013 01:02 PM PST We found this interview between Casey Research founder Doug Casey and Europacific Capital's Peter Schiff worthy of our time to view. Particularly the "color" which surfaces about Peter Schiff's father, Irwin Schiff, who remains in jail – a "political prisoner" as Peter puts it.
In this case the "acorn" fell sufficiently far enough from the tree to apparently make a difference in Peter's case. Peter seems to us smart enough to understand that fighting the government on their terms is a loser, especially when they can change the rules in court as and when they need to. Source: Casey Research So Who is Irwin Schiff? For those with an unbridled sense of curiosity, in the same way as not being able to look away from a bad car wreck, below is an interview from 2004 with Irwin Schiff posted on YouTube in 2012. The Elder Schiff justifies his prior activites promoting tax evasion (according to the government) and calls the U.S. government "organized crime." So much for the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Principled Irwin Schiff may be, but practical he is not. At some point one has to hold their principles at bay - the point at which their liberty or their family security is in jeopardy from the guys with guns (the Federal Government) and a limitless treasury to wage war in the courts. Still, after watching several videos of Irwin, we find ourselves feeling sympathetic to this harmless -- misguided, yes, impractical, yes, but harmless elderly fellow that believes in his own interpretation of the Constitution and because of it now spends the twilight of his life rotting in prison. What a pathetic waste.
And yes, we DO understand that is exactly the effect the government wants us to feel about Mr. Schiff. Source: YouTube |
Today the man whose firm is well known for its $10,000 gold call told King World News he now believes that the price of gold should be substantially higher based on what has transpired with central banks. Here is what Paul Brodsky, co-founder of QB Asset Management, had to say in this stunning interview: "Clearly this week was just confirmation that the Fed cannot withdraw, and if anything they are probably going to increase their quantitive easing. I don't think people should be expecting any surprises, the trend is your friend here.
On Wednesday, January 16 the German Central Bank (i.e., Bundesbank) announced that it was going to repatriate some of its gold reserves currently being held at the New York Fed and all of its gold reserves held by the Banque de France. It had previously repatriated 940 of the 1385 tons of its gold reserves held at the Bank of England, citing high storage fees as the reason (the New York Fed and the Banque of France charge no such fees). Three-hundred-and-seventy-four metric tons will be trucked from Paris to Frankfurt, representing 11 percent of its reserves, and 300 metric tons will be shipped from New York. By 2020, the plan is to have 50 percent of its reserves held in Frankfurt. Germany has the second largest stock of gold next to the US and has not bought or sold gold since 1973.
Responding to House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan's warning that if the federal government continues to run annual $1 trillion deficits we will eventually face a debt crisis, liberal economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman said Wednesday that that is not a legitimate worry because the U.S. government can always print money and weaken the buying power of the dollar.
"Hot right now," read the subject line of an email we got on our iPhone while waiting in the doctor's office yesterday morning.
The Fed's balance sheet also rises…
The Rage Room
| You are subscribed to email updates from Save Your ASSets First To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment