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Monday, January 7, 2013

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Gold World News Flash 2

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Harmony draws a line in the sand over labour violence

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 05:32 PM PST

Harmony Gold says it will not pay for bad behaviour and is considering putting its massive Kusasalethu mine on care and maintenance if it cannot be mined safely.

India to choke gold imports from Thailand

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 03:29 PM PST

Customs authorities impounded gold worth $170 million in some 200 cases of smuggling between April and June 2012.

Shanghai gold trading jumps as US gold derivatives slip to 3-year low

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 03:22 PM PST

With the Chinese New Year 5 weeks away, the Shanghai Gold Exchange today reported a sharp jump in physical gold trading, with volume breaking more than 22 tonnes.

Gold slips towards $1,650/oz as stock markets ease

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 12:20 PM PST

Prices slipped towards $1,650/oz early Monday but remained in a narrow range as investors focused on the outlook for U.S. budget talks and the Federal Reserve's QE programme.

Gold Can Find No Legs

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 12:16 PM PST

By Ananthan Thangavel:

The precious metals market is attracting much attention, but for the wrong reasons. Over the past few weeks, gold (GLD) has tumbled again and again, hitting as low as $1626 before finishing the day near $1655 on Friday. While we were excited about gold's potential after the game-changing QE3 announcement, we see little other choice than to recommend selling gold here, and for aggressive investors to think about taking short positions.

The primary reason for our change in recommendation is gold's counter-intuitive response to positive stimuli. When QE3 was announced, we were excited by the prospect of a new bull run in gold predicated by the essentially unlimited printing of dollars. Due to the QE3 announcement, gold ran up nearly $75/ounce to just below the critical resistance level at $1800. However, since then, the metal has done nothing but fall. A chart is shown below.

(click to enlarge)

As can


Complete Story »

Egypt allows Centamin to resume gold exports

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 12:09 PM PST

The company has been granted the go-ahead to export a shipment of gold after it was blocked for several weeks because it did not have the proper permits.

Mineweb readers pare average gold price forecasts for 2013

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 12:00 PM PST

Mineweb readers this year look to be taking a more circumspect view of likely gold price progress in our annual competition to become Mineweb's Gold Guru of the year. Get your entries in now!

Cost cuts to give boost to bruised gold seniors

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 11:58 AM PST

Experts say the key to restoring investor faith in the gold miners is reining in runaway cost inflation after a year that battered their share prices.

Why Is Leon Cooperman Selling Apple And Buying Freeport McMoran?

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 11:35 AM PST

By Ed Liston:

As seen on Seeking Alpha:

Hedge fund titan Leon Cooperman has been selling Apple (AAPL) but buying battered Freeport McMoRan (FCX), he tells CNBC. Cooperman holds FCX founder Jim Bob Moffett in high regard despite coming under fire from shareholders, but he's not keen on AAPL's reluctance to return cash to investors and warns the iPhone's uniqueness may be diminishing.

I read this last week, and I wondered why Cooperman was doing that. So I did some research, and here's what I got.

Leon Cooperman - Founder of Omega Fund

Leon Cooperman is doubtless a leading investment specialist. No wonder then that channels like CNBC interview him to get an insight into his investing ideas. However, his reputation goes beyond the Wall Street as an outspoken critic of President Obama's handling of the U.S. economy. (Read more about it here.)

Anyway, regardless of his political and economic views,


Complete Story »

Is Momentum Shifting For Gold And Silver?

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 11:26 AM PST

By BubbleBustInvesting:

Anyone who has followed closely the gold and silver markets cannot help but notice a change in sentiment in the two markets, as reflected in the charts of two major ETFs, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), and ISHARES SILVER TRUST (SLV) -both funds are trading below their 200 and 100-day moving averages.


(Click to enlarge)


(Click to enlarge)

Is this momentum shift temporary, caused by an adjustment in asset allocation, or something more serious?

It all depends on the time frame of this question - as well as assumptions made about sovereign debt and the future state of the world economy.

In the short-term, gold and silver are expected to continue their correction for four reasons:

First, the resolution of U.S. fiscal cliff has taken has taken a cloud of uncertainty away from Wall Street, at least for the time being, a negative factor for Wall Street.

Second,


Complete Story »

Gold; short-term, long-term and the Washington Effect - O'Connell

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 10:45 AM PST

Gold is supposed to thrive on uncertainty, but the protracted budget talks in the U.S. towards the end of last year had the opposite effect as investors sat on their hands.

Turn Steel Into Gold With ALJ Regional Holdings

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 10:44 AM PST

By Chris DeMuth Jr.:

ALJ Regional Holdings, Inc. (ALJJ.PK) owns most of KES Acquisition Company, a steel mini-mill that recycles steel from scrap and produces bar flats at a low production cost. They are in the process of selling this subsidiary, their one and only operating business. Following the completion of this deal, the company will be nothing more than $51 million (about $0.86 per share) of cash, over $4 of net operating losses (NOLs) and a CEO with a record of making his shareholders money. With the proceeds from the sale, they will be back at least half of the shares at a price of $0.84-0.86 per share.

Since the chairman has committed to not tender his shares into the buyback, tenderers will have at least 65% of their shares accepted in return for at least $0.84 per share (the price is designed to be the approximate cash value, but ignores the NOLs).


Complete Story »

Eric Sprott on Physical vs. Paper Gold & Silver

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 10:32 AM PST

Our friend Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management was interviewed by TrimTab's Charles Biderman over the weekend.  Biderman, who previously has recommended investors purchase GLD and SLV for gold and silver exposure, receives an education on paper vs. physical by Sprott. Sprott informs Biderman on Doc's rule of If You Don't Hold It, You Don't [...]

A nano-sized bar of glass encased in silver allows visible light to pass through at near infinite speed.

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 10:07 AM PST

Light hits near infinite speed in silver-coated glass "Jamie Dimon can break laws a lot faster."

Next Bull Wave Cycle to Take Silver to $91 in 2013?

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 10:04 AM PST

Equity Management Academy's Steve Roy has released his silver forecast for 2013. While many precious investors are panicking and throwing in the towel in the aftermath of the month long capping in gold and silver after QE4, Roy is predicting … Continue reading

2013′s Silver Lining

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 09:37 AM PST

The knock down the silver price experienced towards the end of last year may have spooked many considering silver investment, however market analysts and the fundamentals are all pointing to big gains in the next year

VB Update Notes for January – February 2013 – A New Year (Part 1)

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 09:34 AM PST

HOUSTON – There is a technical term for the December action of smaller, more speculative junior miners and explorers, including those represented in the Canadian Venture Exchange Index or CDNX. Indeed the last two months of the year could be included when we use the purely technical and unemotional term "the market sux." Having now survived the effects of the Fiscal Cliff, tax loss selling season and perhaps taking a long overdue breath of relief, traders and gamers now look forward to the upcoming combat which will undoubtedly surround the U.S. debt limit and spending cut battles just ahead. Our long term monthly chart of the CDNX is below.

20130107-CDNX-Graph1

 

One year bear markets seem very long. Eighteen month bears seem like they have lasted for an age. This junior bear, the second worst since the Great Gold Bull market began, has lasted for nearly two years, which seems like an eternity to those involved in it.

We said it last time and we say it again, bear markets do not last forever. Absent an unexpected black swan event, we look for an overdue cyclical bull for the companies we euphemistically call The Little Guys to get underway in the first half of 2013. (Green arrow.)

We sure do hope so. Because, as we have shared with our valued Subscribers in technical charts, we took advantage of late year tax selling and fearful, harsh downward pressure on a number of our Little Guy Faves to establish or add to our positions in quite a few issuers.

Now, as we usually do, let's turn to the short term comparison chart for the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner's Index ETF or GDXJ and the CDNX.

20130107-GDXJ-CDNX-Graph2

Last time we blamed the flag breakdowns in November/December on "severe disappointment following the U.S. elections," to which we now add world class tax loss selling and fearful uncertainty. Having said that we cannot forget what the underlying metals did at the same time.

20130107-Gold-silver-Graph3Gold and silver sold off from late November to just before Christmas on profit taking, mark to market selling and selling on tax rate uncertainty. Mark to market selling is from professionals who have to start each year essentially with a new start, booking unrealized gains or losses whether they sell or not, so some just sell in order to square their books.

20130107-Gold-Graph4As we show in one or two of the Subscriber charts, the action this December is similar to the action in December of 2011. If January 2013 follows the January 2012 "script," gold should have an upward bias.

The 2011-2012 Second Worst Bear Market From Hell has not yet shown itself to be over for sure, but it may have just put in a wide double bottom on the CDNX as shown in the chart just below.

To continue reading, please log in or click here to subscribe to a Got Gold Report Membership

A “Paper” Gold Guy Buys Physicals

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 09:15 AM PST

READ THE FULL NEWSLETTER

I am back in Minneapolis this week.  It is always nice to go back "home," even though I am officially a Florida resident.  Home is not where you live; it is where your heart is.  We Minnesota people are very different from the Miami folks – so much so that Susan and I constantly hear "You must not be from around here," because we are friendly and nice.  Yeah, that old saying, "Minnesota Nice."

Here is my most important advice for the day – when in doubt, re-boot.

When I got back home, my mouse wouldn't work.  I put in new batteries but that didn't help.  What could I do?  I had to get today's daily out in less than 24 hours and without the trusty old mouse, it wouldn't be possible.  In desperation, I went to the Apple Store and bought a new one.  Guess what?  The new mouse didn't work either.  It turns out all I needed to do was re-boot the damn computer; there was nothing wrong with the mouse or the batteries.

Right before we left Miami, Susan couldn't get the bedroom TV to work right.  There were several lines of information on the bottom of the screen that she couldn't eliminate, no matter what she tried.  We figured it was a Comcast problem.  How did we solve it?  I gave it the good old time-tested try and unplugged the cable box for 10 seconds ("re-boot" to the rescue).

One of the first things I did when I got home was to turn on my ultra-high end audio system.  "What is life without good music?" I say.  I was greeted by a buzzing and crackling sound coming through my speakers.  What to do?  Re-boot the preamp, of course (which uses a micro processor).  Buzzing, gone!  I must have "zapped" the preamp with a static charge that I picked up walking across the carpet (it's winter in Minnesota and the heat is on and the humidity is very low).

It's tough on us old geezers who grew up with shift cars, dial phones and eight-track stereo.  Now, computers are part of everything we use and count on, and they need the occasional "re-boot" to work properly.  Remember that and you will save yourself a lot of aggravation and money.  I now have two perfectly good Apple cordless mouses, the second one, which cost nearly $100, and was totally unnecessary.  Of course, I didn't figure that out until after I took it out of the box and found that it didn't work either.  That's when I remembered to "re-boot."

Have you noticed that Kitco is now "featuring" Kira McCaffrey Brecht as their lead-in gold writer – ahead of "perma-bear" John Nadler (winner of the Moron of the Year award, awarded by LeMetropole Café).  To me, this is pretty significant.  For whatever the reason (maybe because Nadler, Kitco's front-man has been consistently wrong for over a decade), Kitco has taken on a bullish posture in place of their (Nadler's) bearish stance.

US Debt Ceiling Battle Could Prove Bullish For Gold – Kitco.com

Friday January 04, 2013 13:27

By Kira McCaffrey Brecht

While U.S. policymakers delivered a mini fiscal-cliff deal in the final minutes of 2012, many larger issues were not resolved with the last-minute legislation, most significantly government officials failed to address the U.S. debt ceiling limit.

This is a significant factor for gold investors to monitor as the yellow metal has shown great sensitivity to this issue.

First, let's start with a little background. The U.S. Constitution gave Congress the so-called "power of the purse strings," or the ability to control spending and borrowing. Congress is required by federal law to authorize the government to borrow funds needed to pay for current spending outlays.

The debt ceiling is the official limit to allowable borrowing for the U.S. government, which currently stands at about $16.4 trillion.  Economists estimate the debt ceiling needs to be raised by about $1.5 trillion to meet current commitments. While the government already hit that limit at the end of 2012, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is utilizing "extraordinary measures" to buy a little more time—likely until the end of February.

Over the years, as the national debt has increased, the U.S. Treasury has bumped up against this debt limit and Congress has raised the debt ceilings dozens of times. However, in late summer 2011, the battle to raise the debt ceiling sparked a political firestorm that rocked financial markets and took the country to the brink of default and ultimately resulted in a credit downgrade for U.S. sovereign debt.

Nearby gold rallied to its all-time high during that time period.

Is the U.S. headed for a repeat performance in the weeks ahead? Moody's Investors Services has put the U.S. on warning about a potential downgrade to its debt if no long-term deficit reduction deal is reached.

Now that the New Year's parties and initial fiscal cliff rally is over, U.S. policymakers have to face the hard issues of tackling a plan to cut long-term spending, raise additional revenues and agree to a debt limit increase.

"The upcoming negotiations are likely to be even more difficult and contentious than the ones just completed," wrote Nomura economists in an Economics Research note. "Two main principles will shape the upcoming negotiations over the debt limit. Republicans have argued that they will only support an increase that is matched, one-for-one, with spending cuts. This is a demanding standard… On the other hand, President Obama has stated that any future deficit reduction deal will have to be 'balanced' that is, any spending will have to be paired with additional revenues," Nomura economists added.   

Bottom line according to Nomura economists? "These two principles mean that the upcoming negotiations over raising the debt limit will (again) focus on trading off long-term spending cuts for additional revenues. Given the fractured nature of U.S. politics, there is no guarantee of success."



What does this mean for gold? While rallies have been used as selling opportunities in recent weeks, if U.S. policy makers dig their heels in on opposing camps, the stage is set for a possible repeat of the late summer 2011 political battle. That could ultimately be bearish for stocks and bullish for gold, just like in the summer of 2011.

According to my friend, Trader David R, the reason for gold's drop at the end of 2012 is, "People taking profits ahead of tax hike next year, some people have been long for a very long time.  This is the ultimate dip to buy. This will be the BUY of the century, these sellers will be buying back in January!"  This is pretty significant because David R. deals in "paper" for a living and he has decided that NOW is the time to move funds into the "physicals."  When one of the top traders in the business says, "This will be the BUY of the century," I say THIS IS SIGNIFINCANT.

For all of you "doubters," I urge you to read Jim Sinclair's astute comments in today's daily.  Jim is giving you a road map.  It favors gold and is very unkind to the dollar.

Sellers of gold and buyers of the dollar last week forgot to see this Google map on their journey into markets.

Read the full article at jsmineset.com

Last, but not least, my all-time favorite writer has come out of his fortified bunker and is writing again.  It's great to see he is up to his old tricks once again.  In today's final article, published over at GoldSeek.com, the Mogambo Guru is back!  Long live Mogambo.  If you have never read him, make it a point to do so today.  His style, wit and humor are priceless.  Sometimes humor is the way to deal with the uncomfortable news we present to you every day.  Read MG and laugh at his "up yours" style toward Wall Street and the Fed.

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Interest rates ‘will NOT stay at 0.5pc until 2017′ because of impending bond collapse.

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 09:01 AM PST

Interest rates 'will stay at 0.5pc until 2017′ It's the height of central planning (er, banking) arrogance to dictate 'rates will stay where we say they'll stay." As if… Rates will skyrocket as bonds crash in the UK – as … Continue reading

RBI move to help India Gold loan companies

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 09:01 AM PST

In a report, ICRA said standardization of valuation of gold and increase in the LTV cap from 60 percent to 75 percent would help gold loan companies increase business volume.

CFTC Announces Real-Time Public Reporting of Swap Transactions and Swap Dealer Registration Began December 31, 2012

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 08:42 AM PST

The CFTC has announced that live reporting of Swap transactions and swap dealer registration began on December 31st 2012. Our banker friends had lobbied extensively to delay or cancel the implementation of these requirements of the Frank/Dodd legislation, whining that they would be too costly to enact.  In reality, the cockroaches did not wish to [...]

Peter Schiff: Get Real Money, Gold and Silver – as the Fed Will Not Stop Printing Money

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 08:00 AM PST

Money manager Peter Schiff warns that Japan will likely stop buying U.S. government debt. He contends, "If the Central Bank of Japan has a choice between monetizing Japanese debt or U.S. debt, they'll go for their own debt . . . that means the Fed has to print even more money." Closer to home, the [...]

Nice Silver Porn

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 07:34 AM PST

China's CNGC 2012 Gold sale hits $16 billion

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 07:16 AM PST

The company's total assets hit a record-high 65 billion yuan by the end of 2012, up 11.5 billion yuan from a year earlier, the report said.

Gold & Silver COT Update 1/4/13- Commercials Cover Another 7 Million Ounces of Silver Shorts

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 07:15 AM PST

Submitted by Marshall Swing: Gold & Silver COT Report 1/4/13: The commercials decreased their shorts by 6,860,000 ounces in the week ending 1/1/13 into the silver price raid, and they increased their longs for the 4th week in a row.   The commercials remain a net 226,680,000 net short in silver. Silver Bullet Silver Shield Slave [...]

Gold price dips at the start of the week

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 06:53 AM PST

So far the action in gold market in 2013 has all been driven by the political whims of the FED – and we do mean political not economic. Leaving aside any nefarious type takedowns that the...

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Is Gold Becoming More Convenient?

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 06:29 AM PST

January 02, 2013
On the surface, gold is not often seen as a convenient financial instrument. It is old fashioned, requires a place for storage and is not easily obtainable for the average American at current prices. However, the precious metal continues to evolve as the worldwide financial crisis motivates individuals to seek protection.

Gold may be old fashioned, but only because it has stood the test of time extremely well. For thousands of years, gold has satisfied the three common requirements of money. First, it is a medium of exchange, as gold can easily be bought or sold in the market without causing a large movement in price or a loss of value. Gold can also be transported easily from oneseller to the next buyer with little debate or confusion. While something like a painting may have value, its price can be highly subjective and there is no telling when the right buyer will come along and purchase it.

Secondly, gold is a unit of account. Its value is easily measured by weight and the prevailingmarket price per ounce. Gold's third and perhaps most important characteristic in meeting the requirements for money is its ability to act as a store of value. The price per ounce fluctuates on a daily basis, but in the longer-term, the precious metal is a reputable way to store value, especially when fiat currencies are called into question.

Since 2001, gold has climbed from $270 an ounce to more than $1,600 today. The yellow metal is also on a massive winning streak, increasing in price for the past twelve consecutive years. It is the longest run of positive gains for gold since at least 1920, according toBloomberg.

Critics have their doubts…

Critics are quick to point out that very few places accept gold as payment, or that dividing a gold bar into pieces is no easy task, but advancements are being made in the gold industry. In order to offer gold holders more flexibility, Swiss refinery Valcambi has been selling 50-gram gold bars that can easily be broken down into one-gram pieces. The product is called CombiBar and is roughly the size of a credit card. Wealthy private investors in Switzerland, Austria and Germany who are worried about the worldwide financial system have been purchasing the CombiBar. Valcambi also wants to bring the product to the United States and India, the world's largest consumer of gold.

Michael Mesaric, chief executive officer of Valcambi, explains, "The rich are buying standard bars or have deposits of physical gold. People that have less money are buying up to 100 grams. But for many people, a pure investment product is no longer enough. They want to be able to do something with the precious metal," according to the Daily Mail. He adds that the CombiBar "can be used as an alternative method of payment." The CombiBar is also available in silver.

Gold is not widely accepted as payment, but the CombiBar adds another function to the precious metal. Furthermore, there are plenty of other reasons to diversify a portfolio with gold. In case you did not notice, the world is awash in debt and central banks believe they can solve every problem with more money printing. Recently, the United States had a chance to deal with its fiscal situation in a serious manner, but once again avoided any hard decisions.

Late Tuesday, Congress passed a bill to "solve" the "fiscal cliff" plunge by raising taxes on high earners and allowing the payroll tax cut to expire. Spending cuts were next to zero and the Congressional Budget Office said the bill will increase budget deficits by almost $4 trillion over the next 10 years. With little change being made by governments and central banks, it is hard to believe that the historic bull market in precious metals will not continue in the coming years.

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How the Federal Reserve is Showing Financial Fear

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 06:26 AM PST

How the Federal Reserve is Showing Financial Fear
Have you heard about the Fed's 180 degree turn?

By Elliott Wave International

Think about one of those movie scenes when the leading man does all he can to defeat the big, bad enemy — punches, kicks, slams, stabs, shoots — but the bad guy just won't go down. In fact he doesn't even look fazed.

That's when the protagonist really starts to worry.

In real life, that's where the Federal Reserve finds itself today.

The central bank has thrown everything in its arsenal at the economy, but most key economic metrics have barely budged.

In the epic struggle, the Fed's policy has been turned upside down.

In the latest Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter noted:

The Fed has changed its policy, and it has done so in dramatic fashion. Look at this history of what the Fed has done.

Prechter continues his commentary:

You can go all the way back to 1929, and [the Fed] was doing what its job is supposed to be, which is to put dampers on exuberance and only make money easier when the markets are down and the economy is contracting.

Following that plan, the Fed raised the discount rate in 1929 to 6%. Here at the 1937 high, it raised margin requirements and bank reserves. In the 1968 bull market, when the public was excited about stocks, the Fed raised margin requirements and raised the discount rate to 6%. In 2000, right at that high, the Fed again raised its discount rate to 6%. In 2006, when the housing market was topping, and a year before stocks topped, it raised it to 6¼%.

What is it doing now? The market is right back in the rarified areas that it was when the Fed dampened speculation, but now the Fed is doing the opposite. Not only has the Fed not raised the discount rate to 6%, or even to 1%, but it is keeping the Fed funds rate at zero, and it is promising a 0% Fed-funds rate through 2015, three whole years.

This 180-degree turn tells me that the Fed is in a panic.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, Special Video Issue, October 2012

If the Federal Reserve itself is frightened about the financial future, perhaps you should be concerned too.

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This eye-opening report, which represents more than 10 years of research, goes beyond the Fed's history and government mandate; it digs into the Fed's real motivations for being the United States' "lender of last resort."

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How the Federal Reserve is Showing Financial Fear. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Bill Gross goes rogue? Welcome to the club!

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 06:25 AM PST

Money for Nothin' Writing Checks for Free

Has Pimco's Bill Gross lost his mind?  He put the above link out a couple of days ago where he lampooned The Fed, The Bank of England and even alluded to "the vault" being empty.  This is a guy who manages some $2 trillion of assets under management.  These are PAPER assets under management, ALL of which derive their so called "value" based on the U.S. Dollar actually having value.  If I read this piece correctly, "between the lines" he is saying that Dollars have no value.

He actually got to the ledge (without jumping) and made the connection that if The Fed lends to the Treasury and gives back the interest then the Treasury can borrow for free and the Fed can create Dollars for free.  But the best part was him "assuming" that the vault is empty.  Does he know something that we only think we know?  It's almost like he is taking for granted that the vault is empty.  Or maybe because he deals in such large numbers, he views a couple hundred billion Dollars of Gold as a ham sandwich and basically nothing in the scheme of backing trillions upon trillions.

Actually, with the amount of assets under management that Pimco has now grown to, Bill Gross could (no, in reality he couldn't) decide to move 10% of his funds into Gold and eat up every last ounce "supposedly" in Ft. Knox.  Of course we know that he could not in any practical way do this.  Were he to bid for some 8,000 plus tons of Gold he would force the price higher, MUCH higher.  For this amount is more than 3 years of global mine production.  From an "illustrative" standpoint, 8,000+ tons of Gold is both VERY large yet minuscule at the same time.  8,000+ tons which on the one hand only about 10% of the assets under just one money manager yet represents more Gold than gets produced from Mother Earth in over 3 years.  Do you see the dichotomy?  Do you see the irony?  The lopsided "value" at even these "bubble" ($1,700 Gold) prices.

Bill Gross apparently sees it but good luck doing anything about it for his clients.  Maybe personally, maybe for friends and relatives but as for his clients… they are out of luck.  They are out of luck because were he to act on this recent "clarity of thought," he alone would push Gold through at least $5,000 per ounce and maybe even $10,000.  And this assumes that no one else even sees what he's doing and jumps on the bandwagon of moving 10% of assets into Gold!  I might even add that $5,000-$10,0000 Gold would be (is) even laughably lower if you factor in Bill Gross's assumption that Ft. Knox is empty.

Upon thinking this through a little bit further, for Bill Gross to say this publicly is worse than a death wish, it is self inflicted suicide.  It's like playing Russian roulette with every chamber loaded with exploding hollow point bullets.  It is not hard to make the leap that he has publicly now said that "everything is worth nothing."  This is a guy who manages more paper assets than anyone else in the world who is explaining with perfect logic how the "collateral," the base, THE foundation for everything paper in the entire global financial system… is… well… worthless!  It wouldn't take a lawyer who cheated to pass the bar and never even got through pre law to put a case of intentional fraud together with Pimco as defendant.

Think about it, all you would need to do is ask something like "and the bonds that you own pay interest in what currency?"  It doesn't even matter how he answers, Dollars, Pounds, Yen or whatever.  Because "Dollars" are what other central banks use for their "reserves" to "create" value for their currencies.  By extension he has said that all currencies are valueless because Dollars are "free" to produce and thus cannot (don't) have value.  Please don't get me wrong, Bill Gross IS telling the truth, I just don't understand why.  What is the upside?  He can't be talking his book.  Surely after building the largest "paper" assets under management base of any firm on the planet he can't be trying to go on the record with an "I told you so."  Could he?  Who knows, maybe it's not even important as to "why."

So, Bill Gross "figured it out" and is just now 'fessing up.  Did he not see this 2 years ago?  Or 4 years ago when the world got "TARPed" and the Fed extended $16 trillion worth of credit over the globe like a blanket of smooth peanut butter?  Where was he 10 years ago while "we" were being called "off the wall, tinfoil hat conspiratorial lunatics?"  Bill Gross's revelation either now makes him as "delusional" as us… or maybe we were right all along and he is just now figuring it out?  Whatever the case let me be the first to say "welcome to the club and thank you so much for allowing us to accumulate valuable metal at such juicy prices!"  Now, just how do you think it is mechanically possible for him to put his money where his mouth is?

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‘Gold Rush' Bubble? US Gold Coin Sales Fall 25% In 2012

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 06:24 AM PST

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev has analysed the data of US Mint coin sales in December 2012 and has looked at them in their important historical context going back to 1986. He is one of the few academics in the world to have researched and written academic papers about gold. We believe that the fall in demand [...]

Gold Price Crash in 2013?

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 06:18 AM PST

The gold bulls kicked-off more than a decade ago and the price of the "king of metals" has been rising since then. But for how long will gold's price keep rising?

A plethora of investment experts are telling us that "gold is not in a bubble" and that the rise of gold's price is due to economic factors for instance, the slowly devaluing fiat currencies and the current global economic crisis.

Renowned economists (including Peter Schiff and Nobel Prize winner, Paul Krugman) are predicting hyperinflation and 1930's depression scenarios across the Western World. This gives reasons to invest in precious metals, as a hedge against inflation.

But not everyone is certain about gold's continuous rise. Enthusiastic individual stackers and determined professional investors might be in for a big surprise, if gold's price starts rapidly decreasing.

According to precious metal investments advisor – Prime Values, gold's price might take a dip as soon as 2013-2014.

Gold price crash is a likely scenario, behind which there are multiple forces acting in synergy. Nor mainstream media, nor experts interested in precious metal sales will tell you about the negative forces that could pull the prices down. Their interest is to "feed" the potential buyers with the idea that gold will uninterruptedly keep rising.

But gold isn't immune to value-loss either, it had crashed before (in the early 1980's, for example), it's enough to check the historic evolution of gold's price.

Even by looking at the simplest charts – for instance, the ones provided by Kitco, one can observe the "humps" made by gold during 2011 and 2012. Take a look at the long-term charts for the 2000's and you'll notice that this metal has reached a point where it looks like breaking and heading for a "dip".

Frequent horizontal oscillations and strong corrections after bull runs have been characteristic to this 2011-2012 period.

The rise since the early 2000's has been continuous for over a decade and only smaller oscillations occurred. If there's going to be a gold price crash, then this period might as well be the silence before the storm!

Here are 8 factors, possible scenarios that could bring us cheaper gold in 2013-2014. It's very likely that we will see a gold crash as soon as 2013, according to PrimeValues.org.

Let's see…

  1. 1.     Gold seems to have lost momentum

By observing the charts, you'll quickly see that gold doesn't have the momentum it had during the 2009–2011 period. There were frequent dips, sharp corrections after abrupt bull-runs in 2011 and 2012 as well.

All these "dips" occurred despite various negative US economy-related reports, despite many countries ditching the US dollar in bilateral trade, despite China's massive purchases of gold and, most importantly – despite the launch of "QE infinity" and the re-election of Barack Obama.

Gold was supposed to "get a kick" and turn more bullish on the long-term. Instead, the strong corrections almost completely demolished gold's energy to rise.

The shiny metal reached above 1,880 $ per ounce in early September 2011, but rarely got above 1,700 $ since then and, it seems to have difficulties holding this limit.

It has often been trading sideways in mid 2012 and towards the end of the year as well. Gold prices in December (dropped below 1,680 $) were much lower than the ones predicted by analysts for the end of 2012 (most experts were expecting prices to top 2,000 $).

  1. 2.     Gold couldn't reach the predicted 2,000 $ level in 2012

A multitude of analysts from banks and other financial institutions have been predicting gold prices of 2,000 $ per ounce, some even went as far as predicting 2,400 $ (Citigroup). Instead, the correction was so strong that even after "QE infinity" and Obama's re-election, momentum dissipated rapidly and gold's price fell below 1,700 $.

The mere fact that gold keeps disappointing, fails to reach predicted levels repeatedly is proof of weakened investor sentiment.

  1. 3.     In a deflationary scenario, gold's price could decrease further

The leading precious metal could take a temporary "dip" in a deflationary scenario – which is characterized by a general decrease of the price levels of products and services.

Various experts have been predicting a "deflationary spiral" in the United States. Most probably the hyperinflation will be preceded by a deflation.

Logically, gold's price should "take a dive" first during deflation, then as hyperinflation unravels, a strong momentum will propel it upwards. In order to obtain that momentum, gold will have to go much lower than where it is currently.

  1. 4.     A stronger US dollar on behalf of the weakening euro

The US dollar will gain strength as the euro crisis intensifies.

This will naturally bring precious metal prices down.

Precious metal sellers won't tell us that this will happen, as it's not in their interest – but as soon as gold will start losing value, many will sell their holdings, others will certainly lose their appetite to buy more.

This panic could crash gold's price.

It's logical that the more the euro weakens, the more investors and ordinary people will rush into buying US dollars. This will drive the price of the US dollar up. At least temporarily, this fiat currency will gain strength.

Forex speculators will love to sell euros for dollars when they can foresee the fall of the European currency. It will be profitable to them and they will unintentionally drive the US dollar's price up.

Watch the news in 2013-2014 and observe what happens with the euro. The weak euro will mean stronger US dollars, as the latter will gain on behalf of its main rival's demise.

The eurozone will suffer in the coming years – it is a certainty. If you're up-to-date with the unfolding events in Europe, then you will have to correlate them with the ones in the USA. It's logical that the US currency will gain from a weaker euro.

  1. 5.     Some renowned experts are already predicting lower gold prices for 2013

Economist and investor, Marc Faber (also known as "Dr. Doom") has stated in a CNBC interview in December 2012 that gold's price could even go below 1,500 $ per ounce in 2013. He is expecting weaker gold, as we're still in a correction period. He believes that the correction will continue and we'll see lower gold prices in 2013. Remarkably, Faber seemed more positive about the US dollar than gold.

Goldman Sachs has recently reduced the predictions for gold's 2013 peak price to 1,800 $. If this will be the highest price for gold in 2013, one should expect much lower lows.

  1. 6.     Downwards manipulation of gold's price

Jim Sinclair (also known as "Mr.Gold") believes that Goldman Sachs is manipulating gold's price. He believes that they're engaging into massive sales of gold in order to bring the prices down and then buy up at lower prices.

Goldman Sachs is just one of many organizations that are speculating on precious metal price differences.

Massive sales will induce fear in other holders of gold and they will immediately start selling, driving the prices even lower. When they're "low enough", the speculators will start buying again and the prices will rise.

  1. 7.     Automatic stop-losses ending positions on bearish trends

Whenever gold's price goes "too low" to some investors, their positions will be closed automatically due to the levels of their stop-losses. A massive sale of gold by Goldman Sachs or any other major holder will activate the stop-loss mechanisms of the market – dragging gold's price even lower.

This is an automated domino-effect. Those who don't want to lose much will have their positions automatically closed by previously-set stop-losses. One-by-one, these stop-losses will "detonate" if the price lows reach the respective "maximum loss" points. Again, the result will be evident: cheaper gold.

Typical to this scenario is a rapid and abrupt price reduction.

  1. 8.     Weaker confidence in gold as a hedge against inflation, psychological factors

The markets are strongly influenced by psychological factors. Perhaps more than by any other factor.

Confidence in gold has decreased overall, therefore the "humps" on the charts in 2011 and 2012. The more dips we will see for rational reasons (speculative mass-sales), the more the downtrend will be intensified by irrational reasons (fear, panic).

A temporarily stronger US dollar will create the illusion that the US economy is improving. Believing this, less will invest in gold, as less will believe in it. Gold is good as long as people believe in it.

Conclusions

Among all these factors, perhaps the euro's weakening will be the strongest one pushing the dollar higher.

The dollar's strength-gain will be short-lived and eventually the American fiat currency will crash as well.

Before the dollar crash will happen, precious metal prices will get cheaper. This will stimulate buyers to invest in them again, giving momentum to the metals and starting another bullish trend.

Please check gold's historic chart and at platinum's 2008 crash and you will see that a crash is not impossible. In fact, it's a natural process. This should not create panic in you. Instead, you should prepare for it and use it to your advantage. The best opportunity to buy any precious metal is when it has a low price.

The gold crash should stimulate us to buy up precious metals when they're cheap, because fiat currencies are prone to devaluation on the long-term and the global economy crisis will only worsen.

Gold Report Sign Up Below

Metals by the numbers

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 06:14 AM PST

StockTiger

Gold on a weekly basis was totally flat unchanged for the week.

On the daily chart we see the breakout above the possible bear channel on Wednesday with the retreat back down to the bottom on Thursday and Friday.

GLD then is in the same situation but note the volume bars that are taller are in red, which is certainly not a bullish sign.

GDX has been quite un interesting weekly, though it did have a bit higher volume this week and closed up a bit less than 1%.

With the range of GDX being as it is the mechanical chart has been very flip floppy and at the moment remains on a buy.

Silver closed up .47% this week but remains under the 50 day moving average, though. On the plus side it is over its longer term up trendline. It's a cautious time as it is a bearish chart at the moment but as long as it is above that trendline it's not broken.

The two hour chart of S LV shows the close under the 61.8% Fibonacci as it bounced right at the previous December low.

This shorter-term silver futures chart had a projection on the break below $29.60 to go to the 127.2% near 29. It didn't dropped quite that far before rebounding about a dollar.

The silver mechanical chart is unchanged as a sell with a 2 dollar plus gain from the last trade entry.

Copper which  became strong in August and dipped back down to test the trendline from above rallied back up to resistance, dipped and now again has broken above that trendline. This is quite bullish and needs to close back above that $3.70.

Palladium which like copper had been very strong also dipped to test its trendline from above for another run. It too is back at this horizontal resistance area and needs some volume to break on through.

US Mint sells 753,000 oz of American Eagle Gold coins in 2012

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 06:10 AM PST

Sales was down 25 percent from a year earlier and the lowest full-year sales since 2007, mainly due to high prices and competition from other gold investment products limited demand for the coins.

Shanghai Gold Trading Jumps & US Derivatives Shrink

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 05:27 AM PST

Spot gold prices traded in a $10 range Monday morning, rising above last week's finish at $1,656 per ounce as European stock markets cut earlier losses. Silver prices also whipped in a tight range, holding at $30.25 per ounce by lunchtime in London.

'Gold Rush' Bubble? US Gold Coin Sales Fall 25%

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 05:07 AM PST

The US Mint's gold coin sales slid for a third consecutive year in 2012 showing how demand for gold bullion among the retail public remains lackluster at best. Demand remains well below the record levels seen preceding the Y2K scare in 1999.

Silver is next best thing in Pakistan

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 04:36 AM PST

Similar to big neighbor India, silver prices in Pakistan climb steeply at the beginning of the festive season and also during the wedding season.

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