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Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Special GoldSeek.com Event: “What’s in Store for Gold Stocks in 2013? A Look at the Charts”

Posted: 08 Jan 2013 02:00 PM PST

GoldSeek.com will hosting a special 30 minute online event with Rick Ackerman of Rick's Picks this coming Wednesday, January 9th starting at Noon Eastern, 9 am PST. GoldSeek.com readers will be able to attend this free online session with Rick Ackerman covering Gold Stocks in 2013, a technical look at the charts.

Bullion vs. the Dollar: Three Scenarios

Posted: 08 Jan 2013 09:00 AM PST

The U.S. dollar showed its first sign of life in nearly a month last week when it rallied above some distinctive price peaks on the daily chart. The trend bears watching, since any significant upside progress from here would put pressure on gold and silver quotes. How likely is this to occur? The chart below leaves the matter unsettled, at least for now.

Japanese pension funds and ETPs to buy $550 million in gold over the next two years and what about joe public?

Posted: 08 Jan 2013 08:11 AM PST

Japanese pension funds and gold-backed exchange traded products are going to more than double their gold holdings over the next two years to $1.1 billion, buying some 27 tons of gold at current prices, according to veteran World Gold Council representative Itsuo Toshima who is quoted today on Bloomberg.

A Look at Sentiment

Posted: 08 Jan 2013 08:07 AM PST

Hulbert's latest data available to Sentimetrader shows a -6.3% for gold newsletter writers. Anecdotally, a friend advises that Lance Lewis has stated that Hulbert's HGNSI was actually down to -12.5% on January 3. The Sentimentrader data is delayed. This would mean that gold newsletter sentiment is as bad as it was during the summer when prices were 100 bucks lower. That is a bullish divergence, contrarian-wise.

Mark Lackey Homes in on Golden Mining Opportunities in West Africa

Posted: 08 Jan 2013 08:03 AM PST

Gold has been produced in Africa for thousands of years in places like Ghana and neighboring countries whose names have changed over the centuries. One thing that has not changed is that there's still a huge amount of gold to be found and mined in West Africa, as Mark Lackey explains in this interview with The Gold Report. That's what he likes about the area.

The Pounds Little-Known Crisis of 2015

Posted: 08 Jan 2013 12:45 AM PST

Bullion Vault

Gold Analysis 2013

Posted: 08 Jan 2013 12:30 AM PST

Alf Field

Commodity Technical Analysis: Gold Tests 61.8% Retracement of Rally from 2011 Low

Posted: 08 Jan 2013 12:22 AM PST

courtesy of DailyFX.com January 07, 2013 07:03 PM Given the strong bounce from support, I’m inclined to look higher but weakness below Friday’s low negates anything bullish. Weekly Candles Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Commodity Analysis: Gold is testing HUGE support. The level in question is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the 2011 low (lowest level of the move from the record high) and former resistance (top of congestion from June to August 2012). The response at the level has been impressive. By the same token, a break of this well-defined support level could lead to a rush for the exits and extension of weakness. Commodity Trading Strategy: Given the strong bounce from support, I’m inclined to look higher but weakness below Friday’s low negates anything bullish. LEVELS: 1585 1610 1626 1660 1670 1684...

The Economics of Gold and Silver in 2013

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 11:30 PM PST

Goldmoney

Money Talks Michael Campbell Interviews David Morgan

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 10:30 PM PST

This Will Cause Oceans Of Paper Money To Panic Into Gold

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 10:01 PM PST

On the heels of last week's Fed propaganda and the increasing desperation on the part of central planners, today Michael Pento has written exclusively for King World News to warn readers about what is going to cause oceans of paper money to panic into gold, silver and other hard assets. Here is Pento's piece: "It is an unfortunate truth that Keynesian counterfeiters with their Kamikaze monetary and fiscal policies have taken over the developed world. Politicians and central banks in the United States and Europe have decided to cement, firmly in place, their addictions to debt, inflation, and artificially produced low interest rates."

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Turning Cans Into Coins – Funding My Silver Obsession

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 08:45 PM PST

from lanceoa:

The Bear Case In Gold From The Establishment

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 08:19 PM PST

My Dear Friends,

Here is the bear case in gold in the actual words of an establishment analyst.

In reviewing this the question is simple. There are two premises stated in the positive – real rates and business activity. Do you agree or disagree with those two premises?

This is the Establishment, MSM and

Continue reading The Bear Case In Gold From The Establishment

Japan May Or May Not Mint Quadrillion Yen Coins, But It Will Monetize European Debt

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 08:03 PM PST

Just when we thought America would be alone in crossing into the montary twilight zone where so many Keynesian lunatics have gone before, and where trillion dollar platinum coins fall from the sky right onto the heads of all those who have not even the faintest understanding of money creation, here comes Japan:

  • ASO: JAPAN TO BUY ESM BONDS
  • ASO SAYS JAPAN TO BUY ESM BONDS USING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
  • ASO: ESM PURCHASES WILL HELP TO STABILIZE YEN
  • JAPANESE FINANCE MINISTER ASO SPEAKS TO REPORTERS IN TOKYO
  • ASO SAYS AMOUNT OF JAPAN'S ESM BOND BUYS UNDECIDED

For those who have forgotten, the E in ESM stands for European (the S for Stability), not Japanese (Stability). Otherwise it would be, er... well, JSM. Keynesian at that. But yes - Japan will now proceed to "stabilize" itself by monetizing European debt. Because its own JPY 1 quadrillion in debt was not enough.

As for a rehash of the old lunacy, which just like the OMT has driven the JPY much lower on nothing but innuendo and speculation, and will end the second the BOJ's plan is formalized, we get:

  • ASO WANTS STATEMENT ON BOJ, GOVT COOPERATION
  • AMARI SAYS GOVT, BOJ TO COOPERATE ON PRICE TARGET

Of course, when the latest and greatest "invention" out of the soon to be annexed 4th branch of Japanese government fails, and this time is not different after all, Japan will shock everyone when it unveils to the world...

  • THE QUADRILLION YEN GLOW IN THE DARK COIN

no seriously...

A Visual Snapshot of Market Signals, Commodity Trends & Economic Indicators – January Edition

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 08:00 PM PST

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VC Market Intelligence is a new monthly infographic from Visual Capitalist that summarizes changes in economic indicators, relevant news stories, commodity and financial trends, and provides technical analysis.  The goal is to make this information intuitive and visual to the average commodity investor.

Below is the VC Market Intelligence Infographic for January, 2013 from www.VisualCapitalist.com presented here by www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!). This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

If you like the visual approach to understanding the marketplace please take special note of the links at the bottom of the page to a number of other infographics on a wide variety of commodities.

VC Market Intelligence January 2013

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Related Article:

1. A Visual Snapshot of Market Signals, Commodity Trends & Economic Indicators – December Edition

economy8

A summary, in macro view, of the last month of the markets – changes in economic indicators, commodity and financial trends, market signals and technical analysis.

Other Commodity-related Infographics:

1. The Silver Series (Part 2): Supply & Demand

PD-Silver-Coins-300x200

Of the 1040.6 million troy oz of silver produced in 2011, 84% was used in over 10,000 modern industrial applications (16% used as an investment) of which approx. 33% was used in the traditional forms of fabrication such as jewelry, coins, medals, and silverware with the remaining 66% actually being consumed. While the actual amount is unknown, some experts believe as much as 90-95% of all the silver ever mined has been 'lost' to landfills.  For this reason, there is likely less silver available above ground than gold (98% of all gold is accounted for today). For more interesting information regarding the supply of, and demand for, silver please refer to the infographic below.

2. Death, Deception & Betrayal: The Crazy Things Done in the Name of Gold & Silver

gold mining

Gold is one of the rarest minerals on earth. To put that into perspective, more sheet metals is pored each hour than the entire amount of gold poured throughout history. That being said, the USCS estimates that silver in the earth's crust will be depleted by 2020 at the current rate of consumption. For more interesting facts about gold and silver check out the infographic below and the links to many other such gems of information.

3.  Why Is There Such An Interest In Gold?

Gold-bullion-bars-51

4. Part 1: An Infographic on the History of Gold and What Makes It So Great

Gold_intro

5. Part 2: An Infographic on Gold Mining & Supply

Gold-bullion-bars-51

6. Part 3: China's Role in the Future of Gold

Gold-bullion-bars-51

7. 2012 Ranking of Global Gold Mines & Deposits

Silver eagle sales explode; currency competition act proposed again; Lyster leaves RT for Yahoo

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 07:36 PM PST

9:35p ET Monday, January 7, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Mike Zielinski reports at Coin Update that first-day orders to the U.S. Mint for 2013 1-ounce silver eagles exploded to nearly 4 million coins, which appears to be a record:

http://news.coinupdate.com/highest-ever-one-day-sales-for-american-silve...

Zielinski also reports at Coin Update that U.S. Rep. Paul Broun Jr., R-Georgia, has reintroduced former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul's "Free Competition in Currency Act," which apparently would get the U.S. government out of the money business and thus presumably out of the currency and gold market manipulation business, and incidentally nullify the conviction of Liberty Dollar founder Bernard von Not Haus for issuing "counterfeit" coins that were always worth far more than the coins they were supposedly impersonating:

http://news.coinupdate.com/ron-pauls-free-competition-in-currency-act-li...

If it wouldn't get in the way of GATA's federal tax exemption, we might propose the "Hold the Bastards Accountable All the Time Act," requiring every official of the U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Reserve to be tailed around the clock by camera operators from the Bureau of Accountability, whose video feeds would be broadcast simultaneously on the Internet. Section 2 of the act would limit bathroom visits to five every 24 hours with a maximum visit duration of five minutes each.

Meanwhile, Lauren Lyster, hostess of the Russia Today television network's "Capital Account" program, which often has dared to examine the possibility of gold market manipulation, has announced her departure from Russia Today to take a position with the "Daily Ticker" program at Yahoo Finance:

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2013/01/lauren-lyster-leaves-capita...

We hope that Lyster will have at Yahoo Finance the same independence she had at Russia Today.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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How to profit in the new year with silver --
and which stocks to buy now

Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million.

Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets.

To learn about this report, please visit:

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Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, January 20 and 21, 2013
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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GoldMoney adds Singapore vaulting option

In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, Toronto, and the United Kingdom, now with GoldMoney you can store gold and silver in Singapore in a high-security vault operated by Brink's Singapore Pte Limited. To celebrate the launch of this storage option, GoldMoney is offering a discount on buy and exchange fees at this vault for any orders above US$10,000 (or the equivalent) until January 11, 2013. Tthe gold buy rate is 0.98%, while the silver rate is 1.99%. Metal exchanges into Brink's Singapore will also be discounted for this period and will be charged at 0.78% for gold and 1.75% for silver. Simply place your order online and the above rates apply automatically until January 11, 2013, 15.00 UK time. To find out more about the new vault, please visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/singapore?gmrefcode=gata

GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults.

It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata


The Gold Price Fell $2.60 to $1,645.50 Buy Any Declines also Buy Breakouts Above $1,685

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 07:30 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1645.50
Change : -2.60 or -0.16%

Silver Price Close Today : 30.032
Change : 0.136 or 0.45%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.792
Change : -0.336 or -0.61%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01825
Change : 0.000111 or 0.61%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1553.80
Change : -1.40 or -0.09%

Palladium Price Close Today : 669.25
Change : -18.55 or -2.70%

S&P 500 : 1,461.89
Change : -4.58 or -0.31%

Dow In GOLD$ : $168.14
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.67%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.134
Change : 0.363 or 4.67%

Dow in SILVER oz : 445.67
Change : -3.73 or -0.83%

Dow Industrial : 13,384.29
Change : -50.92 or -0.38%

US Dollar Index : 80.22
Change : -0.411 or -0.51%

Metals spake with forkéd tongue today. The GOLD PRICE fell $2.60 to $1,645.50 while silver rose 13.6 cents to 3003.2c.

What caught my eye was the GOLD PRICE low today at $1,643.71 occurred much higher than Friday's $1,625.76. Instructive also was the higher high at $1,661.71 versus Friday's $1,658.43.

The SILVER PRICE performance on the low side mirrored gold's, with today's low at 2983c versus 2920c. Today's 3034c high hit about where Friday's stuck at 3031c.

Also belying gold's weakness was the GOLD/SILVER RATIO jump to 54.792. And the continuing sky-high premium on US 90% coin -- some wholesalers have stopped offering it until they can fill backorders. Haven't seen it this scarce since the fall 2008 panic. And small gold coins are very hard to find. The usually low-cost small Mexican coins -- 20, 10, 5, 2-1/2, and 2 pesos -- simply aren't available. Krugerrand premium is at a 4 or 5 year high.

Course I'm no more'n a natural born fool from Tennessee, but all that doesn't sound like a market fixing to fall further. Until I am bloodied again, I'm going to conclude tentatively that silver and gold saw their intraday lows last Friday. Only intraday lows lower than Friday's, 2920 cents and $1,625.20, would gainsay that working hypothesis.

In any event, if that bottom isn't behind us, it is near. Coming nearer all the time, to the rising whine of the croakers who croon that the gold and silver bull market is over. What do these people DO on their lunch breaks? Silver and gold bull market continues, don't let johnny-come-lately analysts who don't know a silver dollar from a silver ETF shake you.

Above I gave you the downside limits for the silver and GOLD PRICE. Buy any decline. Also, buy any breakout that takes Gold over $1,685 or silver over 3100c. As I said above, I have already been buying.

US dollar index hit its 200 DMA (80.83) Friday and wilted like an orchid in the desert. Ended the day at 80.222, down 41.1 basis points (0.53%). Yet it remaineth outside its former downtrend line and having begun an uptrend. Dollar has given up another 10 basis points in aftermarket trading. Should it close below its 20 DMA (79.83), 'twould reverse.

The euro has broken down, leaving a gap behind. This day it tried to rally to the 20 DMA ($1.3135) but could not pass. Will probably trade up enough to fill that gap, then fall again.

The yen has been plunging over the waterfall in one great cataract since October opened its chilly arms. Got more holes in it than my wool pants after my wife feeds them to the moths. Now bouncing at prices not witnessed since June 2010, surely a bottom must live here somewhere? Today it gained 0.45% to 113.95c/Y100. Not anything I want to trade or own.

US$=Y87.76=E0.7621=0.033 298 oz Ag=0.000 607 oz Au.

Stocks have gotten their feet tangled in the barbed wire at 13,450, and can't shake it loose. Dow today scraped off 50.92 (0.38%) to 13,384.29. S&P500 was skinned 4.58 (0.31%) to 1,461.89.

Stocks are tracing out another doomed rising wedge, and before this ends may pierce 14,000. It will be the swan-song of stocks for a long, long time.

Charts of the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are jerky and gappy.

The retreat from that straight up rise looks too weak and drippy to be a flag, but what else is it? If 'tis a flag then the move could move as far as it has already since the measuring rule is "flags always fly at half staff."

On the other hand, it might be nothing but a double top, juiced by all the year end trading and selling. It's a bear market for stocks. Odd favor way more downside.

My wife Susan and I had intended to take a little three day vacation to recover from the holidays, but her 94 year old aunt passed away, so our vacationette will be interrupted by a funeral. However, I will not be publishing a commentary the rest of this week.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Wedding season keeps gold, silver prices high

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 06:58 PM PST

Both gold and silver extended gains for the second day on Monday in New Delhi on sustained buying by stockists and retailers amid firm global trends.

While gold added Rs. 20 to Rs. 31,160 per 10 grams, silver gained Rs. 140 to Rs. 58,040 per kg on rising demand among industrial units and coin makers.

Traders said sustained buying by stockists and retailers for the ensuing wedding season mainly kept gold and silver higher.

When to Buy / When to Hold Cash

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 06:26 PM PST

Bear Markets lose over 30+% of what you have accumulated in Bull Markets. What a waste to be a Buy and Hold Investor. The U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasuries are not as reliable as you have been lead to believe... Read More...

These Charts Suggest a Possible +/-60% Decline in the S&P 500 by 2014

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 06:08 PM PST

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J.P. Morgan Asset Management has developed a chart showing the past two cycles in the S&P 500 highlighting peak and trough valuations. At face value it is very alarming as it suggests a potential decline of somewhere in the vicinity of 60% over the next year or two and concurs with previous innovative trend analyses included in this article. Charts: 4

By Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!).

The chart* below shows the S&P 500 at its inflection points over the past 15 years showing the % increases and decreases between peaks and troughs complete with index levels, dividend yields, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.

stock inflection points

 The S&P 500 in DXY terms Against the Nikkei 225 Lagged by 9.75 Years

Several years ago market strategists Sadiq Currimbhoy, Arik Reiss, and Jacky Tang of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Asia identified a pattern** that supported the likelihood of additional gains and declines in the S&P 500 regardless of the extent of the economic recovery in the U.S.. The analysts plotted the S&P 500 in DXY terms against the Nikkei 225 by rebasing the S&P 500 to the same peak as the Nikkei but lagged by 117 months (i.e. 9.75 years). They uncovered an uncanny relationship as shown in the chart below.

Their analysis suggested that the S&P peak would be achieved on December 10th, 2010 but, no doubt because of the aggressive quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, that peak was not realized until just a few days ago (January 3rd, 2013) at 1466.47. If their projected bottom of January 3rd, 2014 were to remain a constant bottom we could expect a decline between now and January 3rd, 2014 of approx. 60%. That would put the S&P 500 at 586 which would fit in quite nicely with the inferred projection from the J.P. Morgan chart.

The 'Historical Peak-Trough Index' Analysis

The Merrill Lynch strategists went further. They constructed an equally-weighted index of all markets that have crashed more than 45% since 1970 plus the U.S. stock market crash in 1930 and then averaged the recoveries from these crashes (referred to as the 'Historical Peak-Trough Index'). When this Index was compared to markets that have experienced similar deterioration they concluded that the current S&P 500 index looks like it's following a similar pattern that would have the S&P 500 topping out at somewhere around 1400-1500 before crashing back to it's 1994 low of 400 (when the stock market bubble first began) by the end of 2013 or early 2014.

The Merrill Lynch Asia strategists maintained that the rally in the S&P 500 would likely be triggered by central bankers keeping interest rates low (they have), an economic recovery (slowly underway) and/or an undervalued dollar (which has turned out to be the case).

The Mega-Bears Analysis

Taking this analysis one step further, Doug Short does an on-going inflation-adjusted overlay analysis*** of the "Real" Mega-Bears. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

The chart below is a real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when adjusted for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.


The chart below shows a comparison from the 2007 nominal all-time high in the S&P 500. This series also includes the Nasdaq from the 2000 Tech Bubble peak.

The chart clearly suggests, even without the 9.75 year time-lag, as put forth by the Merrill Lynch analysts, that the S&P 500 is due for a significant correction.

Conclusion

The analysis of J.P. Morgan, Merrill Lynch Asia and the current charting by Mr. Short bear scrutiny and ongoing review for us to successfully navigate these unsettled financial waters.

*http://www.businessinsider.com/jp-morgan-sp-500-inflection-points-2013-1#ixzz2HKBuYN72
**http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKzgH4hvhh.g
**http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Real-Mega-Bears.php

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Related Articles:

1. IF These "Head & Shoulders" Patterns Are Correct Then Stock Markets Can Expect a 40% Haircut! Here's Why

stockcrashimages-1

The NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 index COULD BE forming one of the largest "Bearish Head & Shoulders" patterns in the past 100 years and IF they, in fact, are then we are about to see a 40% decline in those indices and the S&P 500 would most certainly follow suit. Take a look at the charts that tell the story. Words: 200

2. Don't Ignore This Fact: "Greedometer Gauge" Signals S&P 500 Drop to the 500s by July-August, 2013!

stock-market-tsunami

The S&P500 is likely to achieve a secular (long term) peak this month, then drop to the 500s by July-August 2013. This article explains why. Words: 180

3. Current Market Overvaluation (from 33% – 51%!) Suggests Cautious Long-term Outlook

investing3

4. Harry Dent Sees Dow 3,000; Seth Masters Sees Dow 20,000! Who's Most Likely Right?

Inflation_Deflation2

Harry Dent, the financial newsletter writer and CEO of economic forecasting firm HS Dent, has one of the most bearish calls on stocks we've heard in a while. Appearing on CNBC yesterday, Dent explained the demographics-driven thesis behind his Dow 3000 call.

5. Charles Nenner: Dow to Peak in 2012 and Then Decline to 5,000!

stock-market-tsunami

Charles Nenner has been accurately predicting movements in the liquid markets for more than 25 years, and his most recent cycle analysis predicts that the current stock market rally is going to last through Q2 and then begin a major descent in 2013 – with the Dow eventually reaching 5,000! Read on to learn how Nenner's unique system works and what he forecasts for commodities, currencies, bonds, interest rates and more. Words: 400

6. Shiller & Siegel Forecasts of Future Real Stock Market Returns Differ Considerably

investing1

By smoothing out the effect of the business cycle on corporate earnings, investors get a truer picture of how expensively or cheaply stocks are priced. Yale professor Robert Shiller has popularized this concept and packaged it as the Shiller P/E ratio, alternatively known as the cyclically-adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, and it has become a widely followed and efficacious stock market valuation measure. Currently the ratio is standing at a 21.4 (approximately 30% higher than its long-term average) causing many value investors to adopt a cautious stance toward US stocks. [Let me explain more fully.] Words: 690

7. Consumer Discretionary Stock Performance Key to Market Direction – Here's Why

investing

Renewed leadership by the sectors that stand to benefit most from a stronger economy and profit growth down the road…could be one of the best indications that perhaps the worst is indeed behind us and the rally has more room to run. However, if these cyclical sectors fail to participate more fully, that would be a signal of more potential trouble ahead. [Let me explain.] Words: 840

8. What Does the Current "Q Ratio" Say About U.S. Equities?

investing2

The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. My latest estimates [suggest] that the broad stock market is about 33% above its arithmetic mean and 42% above its geometric mean……Periods of over- and under-valuation can last for many years at a time, however, so the Q Ratio is not a useful indicator for short-term investment timelines [and, as such,] is more appropriate for formulating expectations for long-term market performance. [Let me review the Q ratio with you, along with several graphs, so you can clearly understand what the Q ratio is, how it works and what it is currently conveying.] Words: 800

9. Goldman Sachs' Leading Indicators Signal Steep Market Crash Ahead

Capture(74)

Goldman Sachs reports their Global Economic Indicators (GLI) show the world has re-entered a contraction and…is predicting a market crash worse than that of the early 90′s recession and one slightly less than the sell-off at the turn of the millennium. [Below are graphs to support their contentions.] Words: 250

10. Will a Black Swan Event Cause the S&P 500 to Drop by 40%?

Mark Spitznagel…warned the other day that the S&P 500 could lose 40% of its value in the next couple of years. So what black swan event could cause the S&P 500 to drop down to 760? [Let's take a closer look.] Words: 856

11. Uncanny Relationship with Nikkei & 1929 Crash Suggests S&P 500 About to Top Out – and Then Tumble!

It has been determined by a number of market analysts (see below) that the S&P 500 could continue its progression to as high as 1500 in the first half of 2011 before it collapses completely based on a unique comparison with the Nikkei 225. Before you reject this possibility out of hand please read the entire article. Words: 596

12. Napier: U.S. Stocks to Decline To 6 Times Earnings by 2015 – 2020!

The next decade will surely be especially turbulent, because that's when markets and politics will sort out what the inevitable train wreck in the US entitlement programs will look like. Words: 713

13. Beware: The Dow 30's Performance is Being Manipulated!

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index – the oldest stock exchange in the U.S. and most influential in the world – consists of 30 companies and has an extremely interesting and distressing history regarding its beginnings, transformation and structural development which has all the trappings of what is commonly referred to as pyramid or Ponzi scheme. Words: 1233

14. Will We See the Dow at 4000 Once Again?

Investors have a short memory, in 1995, the DJIA was around 4000. Today our economy, it could be argued, is actually weaker than it was back then. Words: 427

Meet Jack Lew: Tim Geithner's Replacement

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 05:58 PM PST

Bloomberg is out after hours with news that was expected by many, but which was yet to be formalized, until now: namely that following today's flurry of contntious nomination by Obama, the latest and greatest is about to be unveiled - Jack Lew, Obama's current chief of staff, is likely days away from being announced as Tim Geithner's replacement as the new Treasury Secretary of the United States. In other words, Jack will be the point person whom the people who truly run the Treasury, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, chaired by JPM's Matt Zames (who just happens to also now run the notorious JPM Chief Investment Office which uses excess deposits to gamble - yes, you really can't make this up) and Goldman's Ashok Varadhan, global head of dollar-rate products and FX trading for North America (recently buying a $16 million pad at 15 CPW) will demand action from.

President Barack Obama is close to choosing White House Chief of Staff Jack Lew for Treasury secretary with an announcement as soon as this week, according to two people familiar with the matter.

 

Selecting Lew to replace Timothy F. Geithner would also require Obama to install a new chief of staff, the first step in a White House staff shuffle for his second term. Many of the president's senior aides may be taking new roles as the president recasts his team, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss personnel matters.

 

While Obama hasn't made a final decision to pick Lew, his staff has been instructed to prepare for his nomination, said one of the people. Among the leading candidates to replace Lew as Obama's chief of staff are Denis McDonough, currently a deputy national security adviser, and Ron Klain, who had served as Vice President Joe Biden's chief of staff.

 

The next Treasury secretary will play a leading role in working with Congress to raise the government's $16.4 trillion debt ceiling. The U.S. reached the statutory limit on Dec. 31, and the Treasury Department began using extraordinary measures to finance the government. It will exhaust that avenue as early as mid-February, the Congressional Budget Office says.

 

Geithner plans to leave the administration by the end of January even if the debt ceiling issue hasn't been settled.

Somewhere, Larry Fink, and Jamie Dimon just exhaled (not to mention Mark Zandi whose stomp to the Great Barrier Reef brought him nothing but more seasonally adjusted disappointment).

So who is Jack Lew?

Here is an extended profile by Sam Stein, which however, will likely leave as many open questions as it answers:

White House Chief of Staff Jack Lew has been an unassuming figure during the Obama years. His media appearances are dull; his presentation is a bit bookworm-ish -- as if Harry Potter grew up and replaced his magic wand with Excel spreadsheets. When he speaks, the tone is usually measured and unemotional.

Behind the scenes, however, Lew has proven to be Obama's most skillful consigliere in matters of political trench warfare. Time and again during the debt ceiling debate, as Republicans attempted to get the administration to bend on top domestic priorities, it was Lew who proved to be a stick in the mud. Then serving as Office of Management and Budget Director, his insistence on playing out the practical impact of those cuts irritated Republicans to no end.

"What is infuriating to Republicans is that no one knows the federal government, the budget, these policies, better than Jack Lew," Kenneth Baer, a former senior adviser to Lew, told The Huffington Post. "Just as I imagine it would be frustrating to hit batting practice off Sandy Koufax."

Below are just a few excerpts from Woodward's book, "The Price of Politics":

[Brett] Loper [House Speaker John Boehner's policy director] found Lew obnoxious. The budget director was doing 75 percent of the talking, lecturing everyone not only about what Obama's policy was, but also why it was superior to the Republicans'.

[Barry] Jackson [Boehner's chief of staff] found Lew's tone disrespectful and dismissive.

Lew was incredulous when he considered the Republican proposal as a whole. The changes they were considering sounded simple. But the speaker's office was laying down general principles and looking to apply them to extremely complex programs. The devil was always in the details.

Boehner was sick of the White House meetings. It was still mostly the president lecturing, he reported to his senior staff. The other annoying factor was Jack Lew, who tried to explain why the Democrats' view of the world was right and the Republicans' wrong.

'Always trying to protect the sacred cows of the left,' Barry Jackson said of Lew, going through Medicare and Medicaid almost line by line while Boehner was just trying to reach some top-line agreement.

[Ohio Governor John] Kasich called [economic adviser Gene] Sperling at the White House, suggesting that he meet with Boehner. Lew, he said, did not know how to get to yes.

Sperling realized it was not a compliment that they wanted him. It essentially meant, 'Lew's being too tough. Can we get Sperling?'

Lew's wonky stubbornness during those negotiations didn't make him a progressive hero. In private caucus meetings, congressional Democrats laced into him for keeping them out of the loop and placing sacred cows on the negotiation table. But it did establish Lew as a true hub of power within the administration, and it showed that he, perhaps more than any other top adviser, had Obama's ear.

"I was in many meetings," Sperling recalled in an interview with The Huffington Post, "where Jack would say, clear as a bell, 'Mr. President, I think we can accept this. I'd have to go through all these little tiny cuts and stuff.' And the president would say, 'Jack ... you know my values. I trust your values.'"

For someone in a position of immense power, Lew remains a difficult figure to pin down philosophically. His youth was spent in New York City where -- as a June 2011 Politico profile noted -- he rallied against the Vietnam War and touted the import of immigration and public housing while serving as the editor of his high school newspaper. At Carleton College, his faculty adviser was Paul Wellstone, then a political scientist and later a famously liberal senator. Lew worked with Rep. Bella Abzug (D-N.Y.), another unapologetic progressive, before gravitating towards more moderate, establishment ground. He went to work with Rep. Joe Moakley (D-Mass.) and then took a job with House Speaker Tip O'Neill (D-Mass.).

Along the way, his view on D.C. politics changed. "[T]here's a space in Washington that is not deeply populated, which is a bridge between the highly technical and the political," he would tell Politico. "[I]f you could be fluent in both worlds and respected enough in both worlds, you could have an opportunity to be a translator and to make a difference."

Those who worked with him during that time period recall a type of pragmatism that seems antiquated today.

"It was a much different world, with a lot of collegiality amongst the Senate and House, the Republicans and Democratic staff people," said Lynn Sutcliffe, chief executive officer of EnergySolve, LLC, who worked with Lew while general counsel of the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee. "It was the art of the possible, not the art of promoting oneself or your boss' re-election."

Lew's work would prove influential in forging the famed Social Security deal made between O'Neill and Ronald Reagan in 1983. And when he departed the Hill in 1986 to join the lobbying shop that Sutcliffe once helped run, it was an important enough development to merit a small item in The New York Times.

Lew returned to government during the Clinton years, gradually rising to the ranks of OMB Director. He packed in long hours six days a week, taking off every Saturday to observe the Sabbath (he is an Orthodox Jew), honing the type of negotiating acumen that would prove useful for Obama. In talks with House Republicans, Lew would use fluency in economics -- despite not being an economist -- and a mastery of budget details to essentially out-will the president's priorities into legislation.

"What makes him a tough negotiator is not that he can't get to yes or that he's some kind of bulldog," Sperling said. "What makes him a tough negotiator is he knows his stuff so well ... He negotiates well by being a master of the detail."

In the Obama administration, Lew has been comfortable working largely in the shadows. His predecessor as OMB Director, Peter Orszag, matched his budget expertise with a sharp media savviness. His two predecessors as chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel and Bill Daley, were veritable celebrities.

Lew stepped into that position after the high-profile budget and debt ceiling fights of 2011 had passed. But aides and friends stress that he's been handed heavy tasks: not just managing a White House with half of its focus on the reelection campaign, but also restoring damaged relations with congressional Democrats.

"[Senate Majority Leader Harry] Reid didn't know much of Jack Lew until he started having to deal with him because he couldn't trust Daley," said Jim Manley, Reid's former top spokesman. But once he did, a strong relationship was established. In a private meeting shortly after the debt ceiling deal was concluded, it was Lew who helped convince attendees that the final legislation wasn't such a bitter pill.

"Democrats soon became comfortable with it because he outlined the blow back or ping pong effect that would occur," Manley said. "He knew his facts cold. And he knows his stuff better than Boehner and just about anyone else on Capitol Hill."

Still, it's tough to tell what type of ideological imprint Lew has had on the administration. Aides credit him and Sperling with scoring major victories during the government shutdown debate in the spring of 2011 and the debt ceiling debate later that summer. House Republicans left the former thinking they'd secured $100 billion in savings, only to discover, upon closer inspection, that it was $32 billion. The $1 trillion sequester included in the debt ceiling deal included defense cuts, while leaving out top Democratic priorities like Medicaid (in one late-stage phone call with Republican aides, Lew screamed down attempts to make that program part of the trigger).

But in each instance, the broader debate was waged on Republican terms: additional stimulus spending took a backseat to deficit reduction. One Lew confidant said that Lew personally views himself as a progressive, despite having a reputation as a Clinton-era, new Democrat budget hawk. Sperling would only describe him as someone who straddles, if not outright ignores, the labels and lines.

"I've worked with Jack a large part of my adult life and I mean, he is what you see," he said. "He is very serious about deficit reduction but he operates from core progressive principles. In other words, he is not the type of person who either lets conservatives pressure him into backing down on basic issues of fairness, but on the other hand, he is never beholden to litmus tests from progressive groups that he does not believe are reasonable from a policy context."

$111B Texas Retirement Fund Manager: “Every Single Case of Hyperinflation…Was Preceded By Government Deficits That Got Out Of Control”

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 04:30 PM PST

-Shayne McGuire

Buried in the pages of The Silver Institute's website this week, was a commentary published with the Head of Global Research of the $111B Teacher Retirement System of Texas (TRST) pension fund, Shayne McGuire. McGuire also runs the $800 million GBI Gold Fund.

Of particular interest were his comments on hyperinflation and the non-existence of central bank & institutional fund investment in silver.

McGuire said, "Silver is predominantly an investment held by individuals, particularly high net worth individuals, since most institutions wanting exposure to precious metals simply buy gold. I have never met an individual or institutional investor that only owned silver; most silver owners hold investments in gold as well…Above ground it [silver] is rarer and central banks hold no silver—an [attractive] supply-demand consideration."

He further added that, "[In] the 1960s…the U.S. Treasury began selling the last of its [silver] holdings…[and] have not held silver for decades."

When prompted to the subject of hyperinflation, McGuire added that, "Every single case of hyperinflation…was preceded by government deficits that got out of control…gold and silver are signaling that inflationary risks are present."

To read McGuire's full commentary on The Silver Institute's website: click here.

Photo source.

Gold Looking for a Catalyst

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 04:21 PM PST

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] With a growing number of pundits calling the 12 year bull market in gold as coming to an end, the large money flows that are necessary to drive gold higher have recently been lacking. If you look at the S&P 500 and look at the gold chart, it is not hard to see where the bulk of investment flows have been going; namely equities. This fits with the theme being sounded by GET-TV that the bull market in stocks is proof that the global economy is recovering. Again, please no nastygrams on this; I am merely repeating what the pundit class that regularly appear on TV are saying. I find it rather amazing that very few seem to be the least bit concerned about the growth in the size of government indebtedness. Then again, as I have been saying a lot lately, hot money has nothing to do with long term views; it is tied to near term thinking and oblivious if not downright disdainful of anything beyond...

Gold Bugs Ready to Accept Apologies From Paper Asset Buying Gurus

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 04:01 PM PST

All us crazy Gold bugs are ready to accept the apology of gurus and strategists that have filled the airways and internet with the unrelenting drivel on buying paper equities over the past two decades. We just have not heard it yet. We may have to wait longer, though the evidence suggests it should come soon. Twenty years should be sufficient time for them to recognize the error of their ways.

Guest Post: Inflation Since The American Revolution

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 03:41 PM PST

Via Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

As is clear by this chart, inflation was virtually unheard of until the Creature from Jekyll Island (the Federal Reserve) took over.  However, more importantly, things didn't really start to get bad until the 1970?s right after Nixon took the nation off the gold standard in 1971.  Since that time, America has seen a period of non-existent real wage growth and a huge gap grow between the rich and the poor ever since.  Nothing like livin' the debt slave dream!

Gold And Silver - Who [What] Do You Trust? You Have A Choice

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 03:25 PM PST

Nobody understood that better than the moneychangers, today known as central banks. It is the Rothschild creed that has worked for centuries. Remember the "other" Golden Rule: "He that owns the Gold, Rules." Read More...

Storyline Of 2012 – The Economy, Money & Gold by Nick Barisheff

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 03:12 PM PST

In his latest newsletter, Nick Barisheff looks back to the best insights of 2012. The selection of stories truly summarize what 2012 stands, at least from a higher level point of view. That's why we took together the key insights in order to create 2012′s storyline.

2012 should be seen as a year of confirmation in our path to over-indebtedness. Excessive debt is the most important factor which sets the scene for a next major bubble. It is expected to be one of historic magnitude. Still, things seem "more or less" normal on the surface. Governments use general macro-economic figures that – aside from being manipulated to look less grave – don't really show the seriousness of the situation. In an important piece, author John Rubino writes that the "confusion" about the difference between net debts and unfunded liabilities are abused by some to create a rosy picture. Net debts are used as a measure to argue that the debt level is acceptable. The focus however should be on unfunded liabilities, which in 2012 did exceed the GDP of the US with a factor between 5 and 6. That figure is highly underreported and tells a massive bubble is brewing which will end in a gigantic crisis.

Respected researcher Chris Martenson goes on to use an analogy to describe what the monetary stimulus (announced by the US Fed in September 2012) in reality means. Obviously the central bank is never going to put it that way, they will undeniably argue that they are creating economic value.

If an individual earns $50,000 per year, then each month the Fed is effectively printing up the yearly output of 800,000 such individuals.  Said another way, if you earn $50k, then you'd have to work for 800,000 years to earn the same amount of money the Fed prints each month.

Given that the median household income is ~$50k, this means that after one year of MBS purchases, the Fed will have printed up as much money as 9,600,000 households will have earned.  Presto!  Just like that, the Fed is effectively creating the exact same purchasing power as nearly 10 million US households, or 25 million people (I'm rounding a bit here).

And nobody had to do anything except push a key on a computer a couple of times.

The simple fact remains that money printed out of thin air cannot, has not, and will not ever lead to prosperity.  How could it?  It arises without any effort at all, no work performed, no goods transformed or lives improved, no land planted and tended well, no services rendered, and no capital formed.  It is just conjured into existence.

It is just new money tossed after bad debts, with both remaining to work their different insidious effects on the economy and our daily lives.  If printed money could lead to prosperity, trust me – some culture would have worked it out long ago, because people every bit as clever and determined as those alive today (and with the same DNA software installed) have tried it again and again.

There it appears again, the debt monster. The amounts of debts are spinning out of control and the Fed is reacting by creating new money to buy government debt (i.e. monetizing debt). Debt monetization is not new. It has historically proven one thing, again and again:  it leads to a final destruction of the currencies involved. Hence, Chris Martenson expects one of the most colossal failures ever experienced by modern man.

Because of the debt bubble and the related excessive money inflation, Nick Barisheff is more than ever convinced that Gold is moving towards $10,000. He argues that official estimates indicate $23 trillion of [net] debt in 2015, resulting in an indicated gold price of $2,600 per ounce. Unfunded liabilities are not taken into account in this forecast, although they represent the big part of the debt mountain. Barisheff adds that in almost all hyperinflations in history was caused by governments trying to compensate for slowing growth through excessive currency creation. This is what is happening today.

While central banks have been net purchasers of gold since 2009, the real game changers will be the pension funds and insurance funds, which at this point hold only 0.3 percent of their vast assets in gold and mining shares. Continuing losses and growing pension deficits will make it mandatory for them to eventually include gold—the one asset class that is negatively correlated to financial assets such as stocks and bonds. When this happens, there will be a massive shift from over $200-trillion of global financial assets to the less than $2 trillion of privately held bullion.

Barisheff points to the gold bullion portfolio in which physical allocated gold must be a core holding. Given the risks in the financial system and a potential catastrophe waiting to happen, it is mandatory that your physical gold holdings respect the following requirements:

  • Own bullion with clear title
  • Demand documentation that transfers title directly to the purchaser
  • Home storage not worth the risk of invasion or physical assault
  • LBMA bullion in LBMA member vaults

When it comes to the gold price, 2012 was marked by discouraged investors although we saw a price increase for the 12th year in row. Steve Saville points to two misguided assertions of gold. The first one is that gold's purchasing power remains constant. It means that changes in the gold price are the result of a similar decline in purchasing power of currency. Saville argues that "gold is in an ultra-long-term upward trend in REAL terms because the overall cost of monetary inflation (creating money out of nothing) is much greater than the reduction in the purchasing power of money. Monetary inflation can make things look better in the short-term, but it leads to the long-term destruction of wealth. The faster the rate of monetary inflation, the greater the amount of wealth that eventually gets destroyed by misdirected investment."

In a much more explicit way, the second misguided assertion became a hot topic in 2012, lead by successful value investors such as Warren Buffett or entrepreneurs like Bill Gates. Their view on gold is that it is a non-productive asset. They tend to compare gold with traditional investments, which does not make sense as gold is an alternative currency. The right way to look at it is to compare whether to hold monetary savings in the form of money issued by banks in unlimited amounts (see above) or in the form of precious metals that have been used as money for 5,000 years given a limited increases in its supply of 1 to 2% per year.

Dear Steve Liesman: Here Is How The US Financial System Really Works

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 02:45 PM PST

Earlier today, Bill Frezza of the Competitive Enterprise Institute and CNBC's Steve Liesman got into a heated exchange over a recent Frezza article, based on some of the key points we made in a prior post "A Record $2 Trillion In Deposits Over Loans - The Fed's Indirect Market Propping Pathway Exposed" in which, as the title implies, we showed how it was that the Fed was indirectly intervening in the stock market by way of banks using excess deposits to chase risky returns and generally push the market higher. We urge readers to spend the few minutes of this clip to familiarize themselves with Frezza's point which is essentially what Zero Hedge suggested, and Liesman's objection that "this is something the banks don't do and can't do."

Liesman's naive view, as is to be expected for anyone who does not understand money creation under a fractional reserve system, was simple: the Fed does not create reserves to boost bank profits, and thus shareholder returns, and certainly is not using the fungible cash, which at the end of the day is what reserves amount to once dispersed among the US banks, to gun risk assets higher.

Alas, Steve is very much wrong. And as a tangent, it is truly deplorable how many "experts" have zero understanding of just what the interplay of the Fed and commercial banks is in money creation.

The biggest stumbling block that Steve seems to have is the dramatic shift in the historic interplay in money creation pre and post-Lehman. As we showed previously, where in the Old Normal, whereas every dollar of deposits (or low powered money, or however one wants to define them), was derived from an almost 1-to-1 correlation between new loan underwriting by commercial banks (seen here), something snapped the day Lehman filed. This can be seen in the chart below.

What happened after September 2008 is very obvious, and very dramatic: there was a major disonnect between deposits sitting in bank vaults, which continued to rise dramatically, and loans underwritten by commercial banks, which tumbled until early 2011, and have since attempt to stage a very weak and modest comeback. What is undeniable, however, and what once can check easily with the weekly H.8 statement - the Weekly update of Assets and Liabilities of US Commercial Banks, is that in the latest week, there was a $2.1 trillion difference between deposits ($9.317 trillion), and bank loans ($7.237 trillion) in the US banking system.

That much is undisputed.

Incidentally, there are less loans outstanding currently than there were the week after Lehman filed ($7.275 trillion). What is irrelevant here is why loan creation has lagged as much as it has: whether it is due to more stringent lending standards (supply), or due to far lower interest in debt-funded enterprise for loans (demand). That is a policy discussion (and one, by the way, that proves undisputedly that the US economy is much weaker now than it is purported to be as end consumers and business have far less desire to risk becoming indebted even in a zero interest rate environment) and not relevant to the subject discussed in this article.

Where things get tricky for most, certainly for Mr. Liesman, is grasping the genesis of the surge in deposits over loans.

For that answer, we go to the Fed, specifically the Chicago Fed, and its 1961 booklet, Modern Money Mechanics: A Workbook on Bank Reserves and Deposit Expansion, which incidentally is still the best reference for everyone who is desperately confused about money creation under fractional reserve banking (although, for obvious temporal reasons, it excludes all discussion of that critical subset of credit money created under Shadow Banking, which peaked at nearly $23 trillion in 2008 - luckily, that too is not relevant in this discussion).

And while we sincerely urge anyone with even a passing interest in fractional reserve banking, especially those who break down monetary theory to three letter acronyms that spell out "socialism" to read the entire booklet, there is one line that is absolutely critical. To wit:

Changes in the quantity of money may originate with actions of the Federal Reserve System (the central bank), depository institutions (principally commercial banks), or the public. The major control, however, rests with the central bank. The actual process of money creation takes place primarily in banks.

The punchline is bolded because that simple sentence is so very misunderstood by most. It is also why historically, deposits matched loans created by commercial banks on a dollar for dollar basis. Yet as can be seen in the chart above, this historic truth broke down to the right of the blue arrow, at which point money creation was no longer the purvey of the (commercial) banks.

So who created money? Why the Fed of course, courtesy of the $2+ trillion in excess reserves injected into the financial system since the week of September 15, 2008.

This should come as no surprise: after all the Fed has "purchased" some $2.2 trillion in assets over the same time period, which have been necessarily matched by an expansion in the two main Fed liabilities: currency in circulation and reserves, as the whole point of the Fed's ongoing purchases of US Treasurys, in addition to monetizing the US deficit and allowing the US government to operate without fear of a surge in bond rates (and a bond auction failure via the Primary Dealer-facilitated close loop that is the name for each and every Treasury auction as there will always be a buyer of last resort), is to provide the necessary and sufficient "collateral" to ever expanding reserves.

And while the amount of currency in circulation has risen by a very modest amount in the past 4 years, it is the amount of excess reserves that has soared by a massive amount - virtually the entire asset expansion on the left side of the Fed's balance sheet has gone to creating reserves parked with banks.

And as expected, mapping out a chart between the expansion in commercial bank deposits since the day of Lehman's failure and the amount of assets purchases by the Fed (which is explicitly almost a 100% identity to reserves created by the Fed) explains just where the incremental $2 trillion in money creation - i.e., bank deposits by reverse identity, has come from.

Naturally, if one were to account for the money that has gone into currency (i.e. M1) instead of reserve creation, the two lines would virtually overlap. Furthermore, for those purists confused by the peculiar slump in the black (deposits over loans) line around March 2010, the explanation is simple, and once again comes courtesy of the Fed (via the G.19):

Upward revisions to revolving consumer credit are due mainly to nonfinancial business. Prior to March 2010, securitized pools contribute positively to the revisions, while corresponding declines in finance company estimates somewhat damp their effect. After March 2010, finance companies contribute positively, while offsetting declines of securitized pools estimates somewhat damp their effect. The average revision from January 2006 through March 2012 is slightly less than 3 1/4 percent of its former value, with most revisions about $27 billion above the old estimates. In March 2010, the gap widens somewhat because of adjustments for the accounting rule changes, Statements of Financial Accounting Standards (FAS) Nos. 166 and 167, which cause finance company estimates to jump by more than the offsetting decline of securitized pools.

In other words, if it weren't for the securitized pool adjustment in March 2010, the black line would have been a straight horizontal one from January until September 2010, precisely as the total Fed asset expansion would suggest it should be.

* * *

The point of the above explanation is to demonstrate, simply and visually, that whereas deposit creation in the days before Lehman came primarily courtesy of banks, the days since Lehman have seen the Fed in the driving seat when it comes to deposit (money) creation.

At this point a tangential discussion might be required on the difference between high powered and lower powered money, or M1 and M2, but that would require a much broader dive into the mechanics of fractional reserve banking (one which will be satisfied by the Chicago Fed's booklet), but suffice to say, deposits are the fungible equivalent of money when being transacted from one low powered investment option (deposits in banks) to another (purchases of risk assets).

And, once again, like one week ago, we would have ended this conversation here because suggesting that banks abuse excess deposits for risky pursuits would be considered absolutely preposterous... if it wasn't for the stunning confirmation courtesy of that epic blunder by none other than Jamie Dimon's JP Morgan, and his Chief Investment Office (conveniently once again located in that mecca of underregulation London) implosion, just what it is that banks do with the excess between deposits over loans.

Allow us to paraphrase what we wrote last week:

Presenting Exhibit A, which comes directly from page 24 of JP Morgan's June 13 Financial Results appendix, in which the firm laid out, for all to see, just how it is that the Firm generated over $5 billion in prop trading losses in its Chief Investment Office unit - a department which had previously been tasked with "hedging" trades but as it turned out, was nothing but a glorified, and blessed from the very top, internal hedge fund, one with $323 billion in Assets Under Management! To wit:

The chart above shows the snapshot - from the horse's mouth - of how a major "legacy" bank, one engaged in both deposits and lending, decided to use the "deposit to loan gap" which had swelled to $423 billion at just JPM (blue box in middle), and led to $323 billion in CIO "Available For Sale securities."

What happened next is well-known to all: JPM's Bruno Iksil, together with Ina Drew and the rest of the CIO group (all of whom have since been dismisses), decided to put on a massive bet amounting to over $100 billion (and potentially much greater - sadly there still has been no full disclosure by either the bank nor regulators just what JPM was invested excess deposits in) in notional across the credit spectrum (the one place where a position of this size could be established without becoming the entire market, although by the time it imploded Bruno Iksil was the market in IG9 and various other indices and tranches). The loss was just as staggering, and amounts to what is one of the largest prop bets gone horribly wrong in history.

Now the JPM spin is well-known: the CIO was merely there to "hedge" exposure, as a direct prop bet would be illegal as per the Volcker Rule, not to mention the avalanche of lawsuits and the regulatory nightmare that would ensue if it became clear that the firm was risking what amount to deposit capital to fund massive, highly risky prop trading bets. Which, when one cuts out the noise, is precisely what JPM did of course, especially since the "hedge" trade blew up just as the market tumbled in the spring of 2012, a time when it should have otherwise hedged the balance of the firm's otherwise bullish posture. That it did not do this refutes the logic that this was a hedge, and confirms that what JPM was doing was nothing short of using an internal, heavily shielded hedge fund, which had $323 billion in collateral as investible equity, to trade away, knowing very well no regulator would dare touch JPM.

* * *

Now, the conventional wisdom has always been that banks would lend out deposits: obviously something they have not done since the Lehman failure as we have been shown previously and in this post, and hence the "deposit to loan gap", and failing that, the deposits would be invested in only the safest securities - Treasurys and the like (sorry, not Italian or Spanish bonds).

Now it is possible that JPM did purchase "safe" securities, quite possibly hundreds of billions worth of bonds, or MBS, or agencies.

Did JPM transform its treasury purchases via repo into free cash, or did
it simply rehypothecate them in the bowels of the London financial netherworld where anything goes (something we know for a fact happened extensively with that other Primary Dealer
failure, MF Global) repeatedly off the books for even more free cash, is also unknown, and unclear. But that too, is irrelevant for the topic at hand. What we do know for a fact is that the firm, ultimately ended up with free, uncumbered fungible capital of some $423 billion to trade and risk at will as it saw fit.

That much is now also undisputed, and has been confirmed by page 24 of JPM's June 13 Financial Results appendix.

And none of this would have been public knowledge had it not been for the epic trade blunder at JPM's CIO. Or rather, any allegations that JPM was abusing excess deposits to trade on its own prop account would be simply dismissed as further ramblings of deranged fringe bloggers.

* * *

So to summarize what we know:

  1. We know that historically banks have created money (both low and high powered) and specifically, deposits, via loan creation. This process broke down in September 2008 when loan creation by commercial banks effectively ceased.
  2. We know that in the aftermath of Lehman, the Fed's reserves were the source of the money used by banks to boost their deposits, either by traditional or shadow bank transformation pathways, even as loans remained stagnant, and are now, nearly 4 years after Lehman, at a lower level than they were in late September 2008.
  3. We know that, as JPM has explicitly admitted, at least one bank has used the excess deposits over loans to engage in risky activity, and to trade on its own prop account, on at least one occasion, with a loss potential as large as $5 billion, and potentially far greater.

What We don't know how many other banks are using excess deposits to engage in risky activity, which may range from selling credit CDS (single name or index), to buying equity ETFs and REITs (like the Bank of Japan openly does), to buying outright stocks, to even buying real estate, or any other activity which obviously continues to be unsupervised by the Fed, especially in offshore jurisdictions (London).

So, dear Steve Liesman, now that you too know just who is funding the surge in deposits, and now that you too know, that bank(s) are directly taking advantage of this excess deposit pool to trade for their own account, perhaps you can ask the Chairman during his next press conference, what happens to internal bank hedge funds when the Fed starts unwinding its QE and by implications, results in a drop of at least $2 trillion in excess deposits over loans (a number which will likely rise to $3 trillion by the end of 2013, then $4 trillion by the end of 2014 and so on). But certainly ask him what would happen if instead of using excess deposits to invest in the S&P 500 (or Russell 2000 as the case may be), the banks were to lend said money out, and how far would the stock market plunge as a result.

Because, oddly enough, there are some people who are misguided and believe that the Fed still has some capacity to tighten, or even stop expanding its balance sheet, without destroying that house of cards - the S&P500/Russell 2000/DJIA - it has so carefully and lovingly created over the past 4 years.

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Slightly Lower

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 02:15 PM PST

Gold fell to as low as $1642.79 in early New York trade before it bounced back higher at times, but it still ended with a loss of 0.6%. Silver slipped to as low as $29.84 and ended with a loss of 0.2%.

Will Gold and Silver Stocks Follow the General Stock Market?

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 02:12 PM PST

On Friday we wrote that the precious metals sector rallied strongly last week on the "fiscal cliff" issue "solution" and then experienced a significant correction on Thursday. The general stock market rallied as well but without ... Read More...

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The Silly Season

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 02:10 PM PST

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Dear 2013, What Will Gold Do This Year?

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 01:34 PM PST

Synopsis: Is the bull market in gold running out of steam? Dear Reader, Jeff Clark has a sharp look ahead on what's likely in store for our favorite metal this year, but I have a couple of other matters to bring to your attention as well. First, I want to encourage those with the time available to come to the upcoming Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, January 21 and 22. Doug Casey will be appearing, along with Marin Katusa, Jeff Clark, and me. Doug will be signing copies of his new book, Totally Incorrect, at the Casey Research Booth at various times during the show. We will also be holding a Casey's Club event at the show; details will follow in a formal invitation to Club members. Speaking of Casey's Club, if you're a serious investor looking to make serious money and have not already joined the Club, you need to give it some careful thought. The Club is closed to new memberships most of the year, and now i...

We Will Accept Their Apology

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 01:23 PM PST

All us crazy Gold bugs are ready to accept the apology of gurus and strategists that have filled the airways and internet with the unrelenting drivel on buying paper equities over the past two decades. Read More...

The Captains of Monetary Policy Have Not Grasped These Priceless Lessons of History & At Our Expense!

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 01:06 PM PST

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If you are clearly watching, listening and paying attention to what is going on around you, and not what the press 'conjures up' and the political apparatus 'spins', then the following lessons, in the following sequence, should resonate with you. [Unfortunately, however,] the captains of world monetary policy have not and, as such, they have put the world on a course that history has warned us against [and we will eventually pay the price of their ignorance and ineptitude. Take a look. These words of wisdom (lessons) are as timely today as when first spoken/written.] Words: 865

So writes Gordon T. Long (www.GordonTLong.com) in an edited excerpt from his original article* entitled 2012 Calm Before Stock Market Storm 2013.

This article is presented by www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) for information purposes only. The article may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

Long goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

"Red Sky at Night, Sailors Delight, Red Sky in the Morning, Sailors take Warning!"

We have a new era dawning in global monetary policy. It is a new day with the   monetary skies already red. Within [the last] 90 days the untested and newly commissioned captains of monetary policy, with PhD's from the finest economic schools, have steered the world into uncharted waters….They clearly have not studied nor grasped the key lessons of history and, as such, have put the world on a course that history warns us against.

Old Lesson Being Relearned

1. The Importance of Living Within Our Means

2. The Understanding of the Critical Importance of Sound Money

"It is impossible to grasp the meaning of the idea of sound money if one does not realize that it was devised as an instrument for the protection of civil liberties against despotic inroads on the part of governments. Ideologically, it belongs in the same class with political constitutions and bills of rights."  The Theory of Money and Credit (1912), Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises

3. The Maintenance of Money as a Store of Value

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of  their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks…will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered….The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the   people, to whom it properly belongs."  Thomas Jefferson

4. Being Aware of the Moral Decay that Begins to Happen…

"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."  Frederic Bastiat

5. Knowing the Unavoidable Conclusions it Leads To

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."  Ludwig von Mises

6. Remembering the Central Lessons of History

a) The Problem is Within Our Own Society

"A great civilization is not conquered from without, until it has   destroyed itself from within. The essential causes of Rome's decline lay in her people, her morals, her class struggle, her failing trade, her bureaucratic despotism, her stifling taxes, her consuming wars."  Will Durant, The Story Of Civilization III, Epilogue, 1944

b) The Problem is a System of Ineptness

"A system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing numbers of producers".  Unknown

Conclusion: An Inevitable Monetary Malpractice Roadmap

Not having learned the above lessons, our monetary captains have set us on a course of monetary malpractice that leads to:

  • Increasing authoritarian control and central planning,
  • Crony capitalism, which increasingly feeds off an ever-   expanding state, while stifling open competitive innovation,
  • Financial repression, moral hazard, unintended consequences and dysfunctional markets, and
  • Statism bred through the forces of collectivism and complexity.

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*http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38204.

Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.

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To any sane person who has a grasp of what is presently occurring, it is obvious that the current state of affairs is unsustainable. The question is how long can the monetary captains' misguided policies keep us off the shoals of our economic destruction. How long can policies of "extend and pretend", "kick the can down the road" or "fake it until you make it" continue? The answer is unknowable but…when something is UNSUSTAINABLE it is INEVITABLE that it will END. TIME is the only unknown. The certainty of it ending BADLY is not. Words: 1265; Charts: 6

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CIRCLING THE DRAIN

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 12:11 PM PST

Ah, the unintended consequences of unions and democratic wars on poverty and drugs. Chicago can afford to pay driver's ed teachers $160,000 a year, but can't afford enough cops. As tax revenues dry up in democrat controlled shitholes (as the productive flee for their lives and being taxed to death), the eventual death-spiral results in gangland crime and murder.

Liberals and the MSM divert attention away from gangs and murder rates, and provide a side-show to support their agenda of taking away our right to protect ourselves and our families from what is really going on in this country. The collapse is already happening, and will get worse. Just ask the people that live in some of these places, if you know any. The collapse of local and city governments will usher in wave after wave of new crime and victims. It won't end well. Unintended consequences are a bitch.

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Large Cities All Over America Are Degenerating Into Gang-Infested War Zones
By Michael, on January 6th, 2013

Large U.S. cities that the rest of the world used to look at in envy are now being transformed into gang-infested hellholes with skyrocketing crime rates. Cities such as Chicago, Detroit, Camden, East St. Louis, New Orleans and Oakland were once bustling with economic activity, but as industry has fled those communities poverty has exploded and so has criminal activity. Meanwhile, financial problems have caused all of those cities to significantly reduce their police forces. Sadly, this same pattern is being repeated in hundreds of communities all over the nation.

The mainstream media loves to focus on mass shooters such as Adam Lanza, but the reality is that gang violence is a far greater problem in the United States than mass shooters ever will be. There are approximately 1.4 million gang members living in America today according to the FBI. That number has shot up by a whopping 40 percent just since 2009. There are several factors fueling this trend.

Unemployment among our young people is at an epidemic level, about one out of every three U.S. children lives in a home without a father, and there are millions of young men who have come into this country illegally and have no way to legally support themselves once they arrive in our cities. Gangs provide a support system, a feeling of "community", and a sense of purpose for many young people. Unfortunately, most of these gangs use violence and crime to achieve their goals, and they are taking over communities all over America. If your community is not a gang-infested war zone yet, you should consider yourself to be very fortunate. If nothing is done about this, the violence and the crime that is fueled by these gangs will continue to spread, and eventually nearly every single community in the United States will be affected by it.

Let's take a closer look at some of the large cities all over America that are degenerating into gang-infested war zones…

East St. Louis

East St. Louis has a national reputation for being a city that you want to avoid. The following is from a recent Bloomberg article about the growing crime in that community…

Dodging open manholes where thieves had swiped cast-iron covers, Stephen Wigginton drives the crumbling streets of his hometown, East St. Louis, Illinois, pointing out new landmarks in America's most violent city.

There's the shopping mall where a police officer was shot in the face, a youth center that saw a triple homicide in September, and scattered about the city of 27,000 are brightly lit gas stations that serve as magnets for carjackers, hit-and-run robbers and killers.

"It's the Wild West," said Wigginton, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Illinois.

Today, the murder rate in East St. Louis is 17 times higher than the national average, but financial problems have forced huge cuts to the police budget. The number of police patrolling the streets of East St. Louis was reduced by 33 percent between 2008 and 2011. Police in the city admit that they are outgunned and outmanned, but there is not much that can be done about it.

Camden

Camden, New Jersey is another city that has experienced huge cuts to the police budget. Their police force shrank by about a third between 2008 and 2011. Today, Camden is considered to be one of the most dangerous cities in America and it has a murder rate that is about ten times higher than New York City.

The gangs have a very strong hold over Camden, and kids kill kids on a regular basis in the city. The following is a brief excerpt from a recent article about the horrible violence that is plaguing Camden…

At the vigil last week, residents prayed that Camden would simply find peace and that the masked gunman who killed Jewel Manire and Khalil Gibson would be caught.

As it grew darker, Michael Benjamin stood toward the back of the crowd, his son huddled even closer now, and shook his head.

"I've known at least 45 kids who've been killed in my lifetime," he said, the boy holding his finger. "I stopped counting in 2004, though."

Chicago

In recent years there have been massive cuts to the police budget in Chicago due to financial difficulties. At the same time, gang activity has dramatically increased in the city.

As a result, Chicago has become known for murders and violence. The murder rate in Chicago was about 17 percent higher in 2012 than it was in 2011, and Chicago is now considered to be "the deadliest global city".

If you can believe it, the number of murders in Chicago during 2012 was roughly equivalent to the number of murders in the entire country of Japan during 2012.

And the primary reason for all of this violence in Chicago is the gangs. As I have written about previously, there are only about 200 police officers assigned to Chicago's Gang Enforcement Unit. It is their job to handle the estimated 100,000 gang members living in the city.

Approximately 80 percent of all murders and shootings in the city of Chicago are gang-related, and as the gangs continue to grow in size the violence in the city is going to get even worse. If Barack Obama wants to do something about violence in America, perhaps he should start with his home city.

Detroit

I write a lot about Detroit, but that is because they are a perfect example of where the rest of America is headed if something dramatic is not done.

Detroit used to be one of the greatest manufacturing cities the world has ever seen, but over the past several decades the economic infrastructure of Detroit has been gutted and now there is very little industry left in the city.

Over half the children in the city live in poverty and a sense of hopelessness hangs in the air. At the same time, financial problems have forced the city to lay off huge numbers of cops. Back in 2005, there were about 4,000 police officers in Detroit. Today there are only about 2,500 and another 100 are scheduled to be eliminated from the force soon.

Meanwhile, crime in Detroit just continues to get even worse. There were 377 homicides in Detroit in 2011. In 2012, that number rose to 411.

Things have gotten so bad that even even the Detroit police are telling people to "enter Detroit at your own risk".

New Orleans

New Orleans was a crime-infested city even before Hurricane Katrina hit it in 2005, but life has never quite been the same since that time.

The gangs have a very strong presence in the city, and there simply are not enough financial resources to keep crime in check.

If New Orleans was considered to be a separate nation, it would have the 2nd highest murder rate on the entire planet. There are some areas of New Orleans that you simply do not ever want to venture into at night.

Meanwhile, the police force has been such a mess in recent years that the federal government finally decided to step in. It is hoped that the "reforms" will mean less crime in New Orleans in future years, but I wouldn't count on it.

Oakland

Today, there are 626 police officers in Oakland, California. That is about a 25 percent decline from the 837 police officers that were patrolling the streets of Oakland back in December 2008.

Predictably, criminals have stepped in and have taken advantage of the situation. At one point in 2012, burglaries in the city of Oakland were up 43 percent over the previous year.

If you can believe it, more than 11,000 homes, cars and businesses were burglarized in Oakland during 2012. That breaks down to approximately 33 burglaries a day.

Stockton

Police cuts in the city of Stockton, California have been so severe that the Stockton Police Officers' Association ran a billboard advertisement with the following message at one point: "Welcome to the 2nd most dangerous city in California: Stop laying off cops!"

At the same time, crime in Stockton continues to get even worse. there have been more than 250 gold chain robberies in Stockton since the month of April, and there is no indication that crime in the city is going to slow down any time soon.

So what is the solution?

Should we have everyone turn in their guns?

No, that would just make the problem even worse. The gangs aren't going to turn in their guns. The only people who would turn in their guns would be law-abiding citizens. That would just make them even more vulnerable to the violence and crime that are starting to spread like wildfire all over the nation.

We don't have a gun problem in America. What we have is a gang problem.

In 2006, the Justice Department's National Drug Intelligence Center reported that Mexican drug cartels were actively operating in 50 different U.S. cities. By 2010, that number had risen to 1,286.

Many of these gang members run up long criminal records, but our overcrowded prison systems just keep releasing them back into the streets. The results of this philosophy have been predictable. The following is from a recent article by Daniel Greenfield…

A breakdown of the Chicago killing fields shows that 83% of those murdered in Chicago last year had criminal records. In Philly, it's 75%. In Milwaukee it's 77% percent. In New Orleans, it's 64%. In Baltimore, it's 91%. Many were felons who had served time. And as many as 80% of the homicides were gang related.

Chicago's problem isn't guns; it's gangs. Gun control efforts in Chicago or any other major city are doomed because gangs represent organized crime networks which stretch down to Mexico, and trying to cut off their gun supply will be as effective as trying to cut off their drug supply.

This is not a time to take away the ability of law-abiding American families to defend themselves. Instead, people need to put even more emphasis on self-defense as police forces all over the country are cut back.

Just recently, the city attorney of San Bernardino, California told citizens living there to "lock their doors and load their guns" because the police force in that city is being cut back again.

And that is good advice. As the economy continues to decline and as millions more Americans fall into poverty, the violence is going to get even worse.

What would you do if a desperate criminal broke into your house and started searching through your home room by room? That is the horrifying situation that one young mother down in Georgia was recently faced with…

She quickly retreated to an attic crawlspace with the children, but not before she also picked up her handgun.

The burglar, whom police identified as Paul Ali Slater, did a room-by-room search of the home, and when he reached the attic, she was ready.

Walton County Sheriff Joe Chapman told WSBTV: 'The perpetrator opens that door. Of course, at that time he's staring at her, her two children and a .38 revolver.'

She reportedly fired all six rounds, missing only once. The other shots hit Slater about the face and neck.

Sheriff Chapman told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: 'The guy's face down, crying. The woman told him to stay down or she'd shoot again.'

What would have happened if she had not had any way to defend herself and her children?

That is something that we all need to think about.

For the last couple of decades, we have been fortunate to live in an era of falling crime rates. Unfortunately, that era is now over. Large cities all over the country are degenerating into gang-infested war zones, and what we are seeing right now is just the tip of the iceberg.

After the economy collapses, millions of people are going to become incredibly desperate and things are going to get much, much worse than this.

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Apple Stock Price Forecast to Collapse to $50 Target By 2016

Posted: 07 Jan 2013 12:04 PM PST

Downtrend still intact It is official Apple is one weak stock right now. It is supposed to be a tell when the market is up, and your down considerably to the tune of 3%. The Jim Cramer tax selling notion can now be dispelled as well. This is the new year, and for Apple shareholders the misery of the third quarter is repeating itself. After a bump up with the entire market at the beginning of the year, a 300 point rally can lift a lot of boats; the sellers loved that entry point to reassert this stock on the downtrend it has been on since the 700 dollar level.

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