Gold World News Flash |
- First Shots Are Fired in Global ‘Currency War'
- The Trillion Dollar Trick
- WATERSHED EVENT: Bundesbank Wants Its GOLD Back! – Andy Hoffman
- Silver Update 1/15/13 Government Cheese
- Fleckenstein – Gold & Silver Set Up For An Explosive 2013
- IMF sees 2013 global GDP growth of 3.6% – YouTube
- Bundesbank to pull gold from New York and Paris in watershed moment
- Top UBS Analyst Predicts Carnage For The US Dollar & Equities
- German Bundesbank Begins Officially Repatriating Gold From The Fed
- Monetary metals recovered from paper slam in just a week, Turk notes
- The Gold Price Up and Poised to Rise Further Silver Rising on a 45 Degree Angle
- Marc Faber Blog: Japan and Chinese stocks are good buys
- An Analytic Framework For 2013
- The Silver Series: Silver as an Investment (Part 3)
- Gold: The Risk Premium Inherent in Gold Prices
- Goldman Sachs to pay £8,300,000,000 just in bonuses – YouTube
- What Will Gold Do in 2013
- Commodity Technical Analysis: Gold Breaks Through Trendline Resistance
- Jeff Nielson ~ ‘We’re Gonna See the Price of SILVER With a Zero Behind It’ …$250, $350, $450 – YouTube
- Technical Traders Charts for Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Oil and Bonds
- CCI-Gold Ratio Will Tell the Story
- Platinum Overtakes Gold As South African Mining Problems Return
- Deutsche's Bullish For 2013 Despite These 6 Huge Downside Risks
- Why The Silver Manipulation MUST End by Ted Butler
- Gold & Silver Price Outlook, 2013
- Merchant Bank Mining-Stock Tips
- 'What Will Gold Do This Year?
- Platinum tops gold; Germany wants its gold back
- Platinum Overtakes Gold at Last
- Key Gold Breakout
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain About 1%
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts
- Bundesbank to repatriate gold reserves
- Confiscation of Gold – Then What? Part 6
- An Instant Balanced Budget
| First Shots Are Fired in Global ‘Currency War' Posted: 16 Jan 2013 01:00 AM PST by Jeff Cox, CNBC:
Faced with a stubbornly slow and uneven global economic recovery, more countries are likely to resort to cutting the value of their currencies in order to gain a competitive edge. Japan has set the stage for a potential global currency war, announcing plans to create money and buy bonds as the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe looks to stimulate the moribund growth pace. (Read More: Japan PM Says BOJ Must Set 2% Medium-Term Inflation Goal) Economists in turn are expecting others to follow that lead, setting off a battle that would benefit those that get out of the gate quickest but likely hamper the nascent global recovery and the relatively robust stock market. | ||
| Posted: 16 Jan 2013 12:30 AM PST by Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Precious Metals:
People have a long and intimate history with coins. Some of us collected them as kids, and we all touch and see them every day. Unlike currency bills, we know intuitively that a coin's value is supposed to come from its metal content. That's why quarters are bigger than dimes. As a result, most people have viscerally rejected the platinum coin idea. To assign an arbitrary, sky high, valuation to a small piece of metal strikes most people as a deceitful, desperate act. They are right. | ||
| WATERSHED EVENT: Bundesbank Wants Its GOLD Back! – Andy Hoffman Posted: 16 Jan 2013 12:06 AM PST Andy Hoffman of Miles Franklin joins us on the day Germany tells the NY FED, "We want our PHYSICAL gold back!" 33 Liberty Street must be in a panic. As Andy points out, this is a watershed event because once the Central Banks themselves no longer trust each other, the jig is up – it makes the game of fixing the paper gold price with already hypothecated gold a heck of a lot harder. Andy tells us we are fast approaching the final stage of this monetary Ponzi scheme; Hyperinflation of the dollar, which Andy expects could begin later this year.
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| Silver Update 1/15/13 Government Cheese Posted: 15 Jan 2013 11:41 PM PST from BrotherJohnF: | ||
| Fleckenstein – Gold & Silver Set Up For An Explosive 2013 Posted: 15 Jan 2013 11:00 PM PST from KingWorldNews:
Today Bill Fleckenstein spoke with King World News about Germany's move to repatriate their gold and the impact it will have on the gold market. Fleckenstein, who is President of Fleckenstein Capital, also had some fascinating predictions for gold and silver in 2013. But first, when asked about the Germans repatriating their gold, Fleckenstein responded, "They want to have their gold inside Germany. There was a flap inside Germany about them wanting to make sure they had it (their gold). This is in response to that." | ||
| IMF sees 2013 global GDP growth of 3.6% – YouTube Posted: 15 Jan 2013 10:36 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||
| Bundesbank to pull gold from New York and Paris in watershed moment Posted: 15 Jan 2013 10:12 PM PST January 15, 2013 11:56 AM - Germany to repatriate gold reserves to combat currency crises. Read the full article at the Telegraph...... | ||
| Top UBS Analyst Predicts Carnage For The US Dollar & Equities Posted: 15 Jan 2013 10:02 PM PST  On the heels of Germany looking to repatriate their gold, today King World News spoke with top UBS analyst Peter Lee about his rather frightening forecasts for the US dollar and equities. Interestingly, his call for the dollar to plunge comes right after Germany expressed that it wants its gold out of the Fed and back inside German vaults. If Lee is right in his outlook, this will have massive global ramifications. Lee also provided KWN with some incredible charts to back up his rather ominous predictions for both the dollar and equities. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
| German Bundesbank Begins Officially Repatriating Gold From The Fed Posted: 15 Jan 2013 09:22 PM PST My Dear Friends, According to Handelsblatt, a respected publication, Germany is serious about repatriating significant amounts of gold held outside of Germany, mostly by the Federal Reserve. This sends a message about storing gold near you and taking delivery no matter who is holding it. When France did this years ago it sent panic Continue reading German Bundesbank Begins Officially Repatriating Gold From The Fed | ||
| Monetary metals recovered from paper slam in just a week, Turk notes Posted: 15 Jan 2013 08:24 PM PST 10:15p ET Tuesday, January 15, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tonight tells King World News that while the Bundesbank's reported plan to repatriate Germany's gold could shock the market, something stunning already has happened in the market in the last week. That is, both gold and silver recovered quickly from another paper raid by the central planners. "There is a real limit as to how far the price of gold and silver can be driven by these deliberate paper market interventions," Turk says. "Given how quickly the precious metals have bounced, it seems to me that this limit was reached for gold and silver at $1,625 and $29.25 respectively. These price levels represent the new floor in the precious metals market. At those prices the demand for physical metal simply overpowers the selling from the central planners and their agents." An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/15_Tu... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT How to profit in the new year with silver -- Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million. Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets. To learn about this report, please visit: http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp... Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT GoldMoney adds Singapore vaulting option In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, Toronto, and the United Kingdom, now with GoldMoney you can store gold and silver in Singapore in a high-security vault operated by Brink's Singapore Pte Limited. To celebrate the launch of this storage option, GoldMoney is offering a discount on buy and exchange fees at this vault for any orders above US$10,000 (or the equivalent) until January 31, 2013. Tthe gold buy rate is 0.98%, while the silver rate is 1.99%. Metal exchanges into Brink's Singapore will also be discounted for this period and will be charged at 0.78% for gold and 1.75% for silver. Simply place your order online and the above rates apply automatically until January 31, 2013, 15.00 UK time. To find out more about the new vault, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/singapore?gmrefcode=gata GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults. It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata | ||
| The Gold Price Up and Poised to Rise Further Silver Rising on a 45 Degree Angle Posted: 15 Jan 2013 07:17 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1,683.40 Change : 14.50 or 0.87% Silver Price Close Today : 31.498 Change : 0.418 or 1.34% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.445 Change : -0.252 or -0.47% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01871 Change : 0.000088 or 0.47% Platinum Price Close Today : 1688.00 Change : 31.70 or 1.91% Palladium Price Close Today : 712.60 Change : 10.05 or 1.43% S&P 500 : 1,472.34 Change : 1.66 or 0.11% Dow In GOLD$ : $166.21 Change : $ 7.50 or 4.73% Dow in GOLD oz : 8.040 Change : 0.363 or 4.73% Dow in SILVER oz : 429.71 Change : -4.89 or -1.13% Dow Industrial : 13,534.89 Change : 27.57 or 0.20% US Dollar Index : 79.77 Change : 0.268 or 0.34% The GOLD PRICE rose $14.50 (0.87%) by Comex closing time to finish at $1,683.40. That came after a high at $1,698.50 and a low at $1,648. Let's get our bearings. Where standeth gold? ABOVE its 200 DMA ($1,662.79), its 150 DMA ($1,678.06), its 20 DMA ($1,666.81) but below its 50 DMA ($1,696.57). MACD has turned up, RSI is rising, lark's on the wing and snail's on the thorn. It's springtime, come early. And today gold burst through the downtrend line from the November $1,755 high. Yet stands in gold's road more resistance. Downtrend line from the October high at $1,798 stands about $1,715, and the GOLD PRICE ain't nothing till it clears that barrier. But clearly it's working on it. The SILVER PRICE rose 41.8 cents (1.34%) to close at 3149.8c and leave 3100c resistance in the dust. Where in the world is silver? From a spike low to 2920c on 4 January silver has made a 45 degree rise up through its 200 DMA (3068c), its 300 DMA (3121c), its 20 DMA (3058c), and stands not far from its 50 DMA at 3198c. Yesterday it broke through the downtrend line from the November 3449c high. That 50 DMA and 3200c resistance are the next hurdle. Every day brings more and stronger confirmation that the 4 January lows were the bottom of the correction. I have been buying and buying. Silver above 3200c and gold above $1,685 is a buy again tomorrow. Big doings in today's markets, with news out of Germany about repatriating gold reserves and platinum running past gold for the first time since May 2012. News out of the Deutsche Bundesbank announces they will re-arrange their gold storage (now 45% in New York, 13% in London, 11% in Paris, and 31% in Frankfurt). Exactly how they will re-arrange this storage wasn't declared. Gold shot up on this news because loads of suspicious folks believe that central banks have loaned out most of their gold and thus a large German repatriation would put pressure on the phantom supplies of central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Now in America we always know how to tell when a federal government or Federal Reserve official is lying: his lips are moving. In Germany, however, government officials act differently. They lie in German. What meaneth this hubbub about platinum rising above gold's price? Simply that the smaller, more volatile platinum GENERALLY (not always) trades higher than gold. It went below gold in August 2011, struggled into May 2012 to rise back to even, then couldn't hold there and fell to a July 2012 low of 85% of gold. That correction and struggle to advance generally signals trouble for silver and gold since folks expect platinum to trade above gold. When it doesn't, there's trouble in the air. By the same token, strong platinum promises strength in silver and gold, too. But one chigger maketh not a summer. Platinum must continue rising against gold or this signal stops flashing green. Meanwhile the contemptible, scabby US dollar index rose 26.8 basis points (0.34%) to 79.767. Right now 79.80 resistance is stopping it like a Flit gun stops cockroaches. Not impressed: only bounced off the downtrend line it broke out of first of the year. Wait to see if it can come back. Bernanke cannot want a sharply higher dollar squeezing off American exports. When it comes to a choice between common sense and politics, politics always trumps. After three days of sprinting, the euro backed off today to 1.3307, down 0.55%. Unless it closes below $1.3200 it's targeting $1.3500. The Japanese Nice Government Man in charge of the economy (yes, this precisely resembles putting an alcoholic in charge of the wine cellar) caught markets by surprise by warning against a weaker yen. Since nothing happens in politics unless it's meant to happen, only an investor in government bonds would believe that this NGM just shot his mouth off accidentally. NGM feel the yen has fallen enough. Gained 0.82% today to 112.62 c/Y100. With a huge short position on board, any yen reversal should climb quick and mean as the shorts panic. Aren't you glad you own silver and gold, so you don't have to worry about all the shabby tricks played by the gabby crooks who run these scabby currencies to dupe their victims into holding their flabby currencies? Stocks inched up a little more today. Dow tested ground at 13,450, then climbed the rest of the day. Advanced 27.57 (0.2%) to 13,534.89. S&P gained only 0.11% (1.66) to 1,472.34. I'm still puzzling over that Dow in gold chart. It made what looked like an island reversal top, then fainted like your self-confidence when somebody points out that lettuce stuck between your front teeth. But rather than follow through lower, in the first days of the year it soared, even gapped up to the downtrend line, where it has since bubbled like stew when the propane tank is nearly empty -- lower and lower all the time. And very gappy. Looks very indecisive and timid. If the Dow in Gold closes below 7.99 oz, the 20 DMA, then the plunge will be something to behold. A similar pattern has painted the Dow in Silver chart, but it hath already broken down below the 20 dma (now 435.14), closing today at 431.53. One final confirmation by the Dow in Gold will have both these indicators SCREAMING that silver and gold are about to surge against stocks. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.  | ||
| Marc Faber Blog: Japan and Chinese stocks are good buys Posted: 15 Jan 2013 06:59 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||
| An Analytic Framework For 2013 Posted: 15 Jan 2013 06:43 PM PST Submitted by Martin Sibileau of A View From The Trenches blog, In the same fashion that I proposed an analytic framework for 2012, I want to lay out today what I think will be the big themes of 2013. Their drivers were established in September 2012, and I sought to give a thorough description of them here, here and here. An analytic framework for 2013In one sentence, during 2013, I expect imbalances to grow. These imbalances are the US fiscal and trade deficits, the fiscal deficits of the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and the unemployment rate of the EMU thanks to a stronger Euro. A stronger Euro is the consequence of capital inflows driven by the elimination of jump-to-default risk in EMU sovereign debt. Below is a drawing I made to help visualize these concepts:
The drawing shows a circular dynamic playing out: The threat of the European Central Bank to purchase the debt of sovereigns (that submit to a fiscal adjustment program) eliminates the jump-to-default risk of this asset class. As explained and forecasted in September, this threat also forces a convergence in sovereign yields within the EMU, to lower levels. As long as the market perceives that the solvency of Germany is not affected, the Bund yields will not rise to that convergence level. So far, the market seems not to see that (Possunt quia posse uidentur). But the resulting appreciation of the Euro will eventually address that illusion. This convergence, in my view, is behind the recent weakness in Treasuries. I proposed this thesis last September. However, the ongoing weakness in Treasuries does not mean I was right. In fact, I fear I may have been right for the wrong reasons. The negotiations on the US fiscal deficit and the latest announcement of the Fed with regards to debt monetization quantitative easing to infinity may also be behind this move. But until proven wrong, I will cautiously hold to my thesis. The above factors drove capital inflows back to the European Monetary Union and strengthened the Euro. I believe this strength will last longer than many can endure. The circularity of this all resides in that the strength of the Euro will make unemployment and fiscal deficits a structural feature of the EMU, forcing the ECB to keep the threat of and eventually implementing the Open Monetary Transactions. The alternative is a social uprising and that will not be tolerated by the Euro kleptocracy. All this -and particularly the strength of the Euro- is not sustainable. Ad infinitum, it would create a Euro so strong that the periphery would drag coreEuropein its bankruptcy. But while it lasts, the compression in sovereign yield will mask the increasing default risks in Euro corporate debt, specially the one denominated in US dollars. Both have been fuelling the rise in the value of equities globally. The unsustainable framework rests upon the shoulders of the Federal Reserve, which thanks to the established USD swaps and unlimited Quantitative Easing, has completely coupled its balance sheet to that of the European Central Bank. In the end, as this new set of relative prices between asset classes sets in, it will be more difficult for the European Central Bank to sterilize the Open Monetary Transactions. History provides an example of the current growth in imbalancesBy now, it should be clear that the rally in equities is not the reflection of upcoming economic growth. Paraphrasing Shakespeare, economic growth "should be made of sterner stuff". Under the current framework, the European Central Bank can afford to engage in the purchase of sovereign debt because the Fed is indirectly financing the European private sector. The Fed does so with the backstop of USD swaps and tangible quantitative easing, which provides cheap USD funding to European banks and thus avoids a credit contraction of the sorts we began to see at the end of 2011. This same structure was in place between the Federal Reserve and the central banks of France and England in 1927, 1928 and 1929 and, as a witness declared, "(it) transformed the depression of 1929 into the Great Depression of 1931". Something tells me that this time however it will be different. It will be worse. That little something is the determination of the new Japanese government to devalue its currency via purchases of European sovereign debt (ESM debt). How fragile is this Entente?Most analysts I have read/heard, focus on the political fragility of the framework. And they are right. The uncertainty over the US debt ceiling negotiations and the fact that prices today do not reflect anything else but the probability of a bid or lack thereof by a central bank makes politics relevant. Should the European Central Bank finally engage in Open Monetary Transactions, the importance of politics would be fully visible. However, unemployment is "the" fundamental underlying factor in this story and I do not think it will fall. In the long term, financial repression, including zero-interest rate policies, simply hurt investment demand and productivity. I do not see unemployment dictating the rhythm in 2013, indirectly through defaults. Furthermore, in the meantime, the picture may look different, because "…we should not be surprised if, under zero-interest-rate policies in the developed world, we witness a growing trend in corporate leverage, with vertical integration, share buybacks and private equity funds taking public companies private…". This is obviously supportive of risk. No systemic meltdown in 2013?From earlier letters, you know that I believe quasi-fiscal deficits (i.e. deficits from a central bank) are a necessary condition for a meltdown to occur, and that these usually appear when deposits begin to seriously evaporate. So far, capital is leaving main street (via leveraged share buybacks and dividends), but at the same time, it is being parked at banks in the form of deposits. The case of Wells Fargo and the temporary pause in the flight of deposits from the periphery of the European Union suggest that the process towards a meltdown, if any (and I believe there will be one) will be a long agony. Furthermore, in the short term, at the end of January, European banks, have the option to repay the money lent by the European Central Bank in the Long-Term Refinancing Operations from a year ago, on a weekly basis. I expect them to repay enough to cause more pain to those still long of gold (including me, of course). | ||
| The Silver Series: Silver as an Investment (Part 3) Posted: 15 Jan 2013 06:24 PM PST [B][COLOR=#ff0000]Register to [B][B][B][B][B]"Follow the munKNEE"[/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/B][/COLOR] and automatically receive all articles posted Silver has had double digit gains in 7 of the last 10 years.* In this infographic, we look at the investment properties of silver as well as its chief differences with gold.* Highlights include a study on silver correlation, volatility, performance against the US Dollar and money supply, and* portfolio diversification. So says an introduction to the following infographic* by www.visualcapitalist.com. Part 1 and Part 2 were also brought to you courtesy of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!). This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement. [INDENT]Register [COLOR=#ff0000]HERE for Your Daily Intelligence Report[/COLOR] [*]It's FREE [*]Provides the "best of the best" financial, economic and investment ... | ||
| Gold: The Risk Premium Inherent in Gold Prices Posted: 15 Jan 2013 05:53 PM PST If gold is $1,670 as this is being written on January 14, 2013, the risk premium attached to gold at present then appears to be roughly $870. | ||
| Goldman Sachs to pay £8,300,000,000 just in bonuses – YouTube Posted: 15 Jan 2013 05:27 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||
| Posted: 15 Jan 2013 05:16 PM PST As we turn the calendar over, there are probably two dominant questions on the minds of most precious-metals investors: Will gold and silver have a better year than the last two? And will gold stocks finally break out of their funk? 2012 was an interesting year for our favorite metal. On one hand, gold was up only single-digit percentages for the second consecutive year: 8.3%, after rising just 9.1% in 2011. It was also outperformed by the S&P 500 Index, though this was the first time since 2004 and only the third since 1999. On the other hand, the price has now risen 12 consecutive years, overshadowing most other bull markets in modern history. | ||
| Commodity Technical Analysis: Gold Breaks Through Trendline Resistance Posted: 15 Jan 2013 05:07 PM PST courtesy of DailyFX.com January 15, 2013 03:56 PM Daily Bars Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Commodity Analysis: Gold’s response at the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the 2011 low (lowest level of the move from the record high) and former resistance (top of congestion from June to August 2012) is impressive. The break above trendline resistance that extends off of the November and December highs shifts immediate focus to the 1/2 high and trendline that extends off of the October and November highs. Commodity Trading Strategy: Flat LEVELS: 1626 1642 1653 1679 1695 1703... | ||
| Posted: 15 Jan 2013 05:02 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  | ||
| Technical Traders Charts for Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Oil and Bonds Posted: 15 Jan 2013 05:02 PM PST Yesterday’s trading session played out exactly as posted in the morning chart update. Today will be a different story from the looks of it as the dollar index looks to be putting in a bottom and that has the SP500 down 0.40% this morning. It may trigger our first entry point to let long stocks today. | ||
| CCI-Gold Ratio Will Tell the Story Posted: 15 Jan 2013 05:01 PM PST The story referenced in the title being whether or not global policy makers can cook up an inflationary up phase in the global economy. I had used the term 'i2k12' early last year referring to the prospects for what might ultimately ... | ||
| Platinum Overtakes Gold As South African Mining Problems Return Posted: 15 Jan 2013 04:47 PM PST In some ways it is lucky that the platinum coin nonsense is dead and buried because there may have been certain procurement issues. The reason, as was the case late in 2012, is that the South African mining situation is once again rapidly unraveling, despite hopes by third parties that recent wage compromises between employers and unions had managed to leave striking workers and mining companies at a tense but cordial impasse. However, as was easily predictable, following the substantial wage hike demanded by miners to end strikes, what resulted was perfectly expected: a collapse in profits. And now Anglo American Platinum has no choice but to shutter a variety of facilities and fire workers outright in order to restore the pre-riot profitability. From AP: "The world's largest platinum producer said Tuesday it will close some operations, sell one mine in South Africa and cut 14,000 jobs. Anglo American Platinum said a nearly yearlong review found that four mine shafts needed to be closed and one mine sold because of unprofitable operations. The government's minister of mines and the National Union of Mineworkers, NUM, expressed surprise and shock at the announcement." Sadly, "surprise" and "shock" are not leverageable bargaining positions, especially when dealing with a company hell bent on protecting the only thing that matters - profits - and unless the union is willing to retract all of its hard won wage gains achieved after nearly a month-long strike, and many workers deaths as hostilities escalated on numerous occasions, then the number of employees at the platinum miner will be drastically cut, and with it the amount of platinum produced, which is also the reason why today for the first time in nearly a year the price of Platinum and Gold reached parity once more. Is there perhaps a loophole for a #trilliondollargoldcoin that the Treasury and the Fed have not rejected yet? More from AP on South Africa's once again very angry unions:
Jobs which, it goes without saying, will pay far, far less.
And with one of the three metals down, and platinum prices soaring, how long until other miners are forced to restore profitability by cutting overhead, and in the process trimming production, which benefits nobody - neither management, nor employees, nor shareholders (for Hugh Hendry's thoughts on owning miners, see previously), except for the underlying metal of course, which will just get more valuable as less of it is created. For an example of the inverse: please sell central banking and paper money. | ||
| Deutsche's Bullish For 2013 Despite These 6 Huge Downside Risks Posted: 15 Jan 2013 04:12 PM PST In their view, 2013 will likely mark the dawn of the post-crisis era, but it seems the premise for Deutsche's somewhat ebullient 2013 outlook (below) is that central-bankers remain on standby to counter any and all negative risks. Despite the brinksmanship, politicians will act to prevent systemic collapse and while structural long-term issues such as high debts across the developed world and unbalanced growth models in emerging economies remain unsettled, Deutsche argues that 2013 could be a year of stabilization after years of crisis-fighting. The following presentation is broad-based and lays out a "don't fight the central banker" meme perfectly; however, the six key downside risks (from China NPLs to European political unrest) that they highlight (but gloss over in their somewhat Pollyanna-ish way), should at least - in our humble opinion - raise some concerns about the bimodal distribution of outcomes that await risk assets in 2013.
2012 was tough - but Central Bankers saved the world; more of the same in 2013?
But there remain six key downside risks...
Full presentation below
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| Why The Silver Manipulation MUST End by Ted Butler Posted: 15 Jan 2013 03:31 PM PST This is an excerpt from Ted Butler's latest newsletter to his paid subscribers. We strongly encourage readers to subscribe to the newsletter on www.butlerresearch.com for in-depth analysis in the gold and silver markets. A long time subscriber asked a question this week that I would imagine may be on many minds: "Ted, you have frequently stated that all manipulations must end. Why is that? After 25 years it still appears to be going strong. Why can't it go on for another 25 years, or for infinity?" That's a great question. First, let me define all manipulations as being commodity price manipulations, as opposed to manipulations of other things. We have documented experience in such commodity market manipulations over the past decades, including copper, soybeans, potatoes and even silver in 1980, to the upside. All these previous manipulations did end and ended dramatically, but I admit that doesn't prove conclusively, by itself, that such manipulations must end. What I think mandates that all commodity price manipulations must end is the law of supply and demand. Actually, this law would be better termed the law of supply and demand and price, because supply and demand are balanced by the fulcrum of price. If a price is set artificially too high, eventually supply increases and demand decreases to the point where the price must collapse. Likewise, if a price is set artificially too low (as I allege in silver), eventually supply is reduced and demand is increased to the point where the price must explode. Therefore, an artificial price, either too high or too low, will distort the forces of physical supply and demand to the point of a radical rebalancing of the price. Incidentally, the distortion of the free market forces of supply and demand by an artificial price causes such collateral damage to the workings of a free market economy that explains why preventing manipulation is the most important mission of the CFTC and is at the heart of US antitrust law. The difference between most prior manipulations (except potatoes in 1976) and the current silver manipulation is that they were upside manipulations, which are much easier to understand. Most people grasp that if a single entity buys such a large percentage of an item that it can create a corner on the market and force prices higher, whether by the Hunt Bros in silver or the Sumitomo trader in copper. More people have trouble with the concept of short selling (selling something that you don't own) than the concept of buying something you don't own. But a controlling market share can artificially set prices to be either too high or too low and invariably the law of supply and demand and price will force a radical change for the price. It is said that no one entity is bigger than the market. I hold this to be true because of the law of supply and demand and price. While I believe that JPMorgan has set an artificial low price in silver by virtue of their massive concentrated short position I also believe the forces of real silver supply and demand must overwhelm JPM's artificial price setting. The real key to the price is timing. Specifically, when will the forces of supply and demand overwhelm JPMorgan's rigged lower price of silver? Usually, I answer that I'm an analyst not a prophet to explain my reluctance in timing such an event, but I'm going to look at it differently today. The truth is that the downward silver manipulation has lasted much longer than I ever imagined it would, especially considering just how successful I have been in convincing others that it exists. This manipulation has existed for more than 25 years, so what guarantee is there that it can't last another quarter of century or forever? The guarantee lies in the law of supply and demand and price. The guarantee is that if the price is set artificially low, there will be enough of an increase in demand and decrease in supply to eventually cause the price to explode. I think the key here is to look at what's on the scoreboard rather than dwell on what we want to be on the scoreboard. Let's face it – most of us want this manipulation to be over and for the price to explode already. When it doesn't explode we naturally imagine that it may never explode (especially on down days). I would ask that you look at it differently. Instead of focusing on why the silver manipulation hasn't already ended amid increased demand and restrained supply, try to look at what has occurred in the real world of silver supply and demand over the past 25 years. If silver had been manipulated and the price was kept artificially lower over the last quarter century (as I allege) then certain supply demand factors should reflect that. I think those factors are visible. For one thing, there is far less above ground silver in the world than there was 25 or 75 years ago. Twenty five years ago, there was close to three billion oz in silver bullion inventories and seventy five years ago there was ten billion oz. Today, there's only a bit over one billion ounces. If silver wasn't manipulated in price, then where did all that silver go? I didn't say that prices didn't go higher (over the past 6 years or so) just that if prices weren't artificially depressed in price the world wouldn't have eaten up so much of it. Further, the billion ounces of silver bullion that does still exist is now owned by a radically different type of owner than held silver 25 or 75 years ago. I claim these new owners are much more aware that silver has been artificially depressed in price and that is the main reason they have chosen to own it. This new set of owners is not interested in selling until the artificial low price is rectified. Yes, the mine production and consumption of silver has grown over the past 25 years, but that's more a function of by-product mining gains and the growth of population and world economic growth. The lynchpin is the drop in inventories from 25 and 75 years ago. If silver weren't artificially depressed in price, that wouldn't have occurred. This article is about silver, but I can't help but highlight the difference between silver and gold. Whereas silver inventories had declined drastically (until recently), world gold inventories have done nothing but expand over every time period. Particularly instructive is what has occurred in silver supply and demand recently, say the last two years. There are more signs today that physical silver demand is closer to overwhelming supply than ever before due to the artificial low price. I didn't know it at the time, but in hindsight the world was on the brink of a physical silver shortage for the first time in history around the April 2011 high in price. We ran up from $20 to $50, from the fall of 2010 not because of speculative buying on the COMEX, normally the key price driver. By process of elimination, it had to be physical demand overwhelming physical supply, because nothing else could explain the jump.
This is an excerpt from Ted Butler's latest newsletter to his paid subscribers. We strongly encourage readers to subscribe to the newsletter on www.butlerresearch.com for in-depth analysis in the gold and silver markets. Most read articles by Ted Butler Silver Manipulation Explained In A Simple Way By Ted Butler | ||
| Gold & Silver Price Outlook, 2013 Posted: 15 Jan 2013 03:09 PM PST A technical and market analysis of the precious metals' action ahead... | ||
| Merchant Bank Mining-Stock Tips Posted: 15 Jan 2013 03:04 PM PST Playing the junior Gold Mining sector starts with research... | ||
| Posted: 15 Jan 2013 02:59 PM PST There's a fascinating (and enraging to both sides) argument going on over whether debt really matters. On one side are the Austrian-inspired hard money advocates who see excessive borrowing as even worse for governments than ... | ||
| Platinum tops gold; Germany wants its gold back Posted: 15 Jan 2013 02:41 PM PST 15-Jan (MarketWatch) — Gold futures settled near a two-week high on Tuesday, supported by signs of inflation in Japan, while a report that Germany may bring its gold reserves home renewed questions over its plans for the currency of last resort. And after nearly a year of fetching a lower price than gold, platinum futures settled with a premium over the yellow metal. … And since gold's seen as a store of value, central banks hold it in reserves but there's been speculation that governments struggling with fiscal crises may be forced to sell some of their gold holdings. Still, the "unwinding of expectations that the [Federal Reserve] could start removing accommodations as soon as this year" likely contributed to Tuesday's gains in gold, said Peter Grant, chief market analyst at USAGold. [source] | ||
| Platinum Overtakes Gold at Last Posted: 15 Jan 2013 02:35 PM PST Platinum just rose above the gold price for the 1st time in 10 months. And so, as if to mark the end of the Trillion-Dollar Coin nonsense, platinum just did something it hasn't managed in nearly a year. | ||
| Posted: 15 Jan 2013 02:27 PM PST The American government credit card limit, aka the debt ceiling, was just increased. Politicians around the world are loudly cheering this supposedly great news. | ||
| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain About 1% Posted: 15 Jan 2013 02:23 PM PST Gold climbed almost 1% in Asia before it chopped back lower in London, but it then rose to a new session high of $1685.10 in New York and ended with a gain of 0.63%. Silver surged to as high as $31.382 in Asia before it fell back to $31.02 in London, but it then rose to as high as $31.503 in New York and ended with a gain of 1.06%. | ||
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts Posted: 15 Jan 2013 02:16 PM PST  This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
| Bundesbank to repatriate gold reserves Posted: 15 Jan 2013 02:10 PM PST Several prominent news sources are reporting that Bundesbank is about to repatriate a significant portion of its overseas central bank gold deposits held at the New York Fed, the Bank of France and the Bank of England. (See details in the link below). This is a major development — and could become a very bullish one as it plays out in the weeks and months ahead. JS Mineset's James Sinclair says that if the Bundesbank actually proceeds with this repatriation it will be "the most important gold development since Charles De Gaulle called the US hand that it would stand by convertibility" in the late 1960s. The French position then instigated a series of events that ultimately led to the U.S. halting dollars for gold redemptions and a formal devaluation of the dollar. A major bull market in gold followed. Bundesbank's actions could inspire copycat repatriations from other banks. There could also be a domino effect as central banks being called might be forced to make a call on other banks as a result. As Warren Buffett once said, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." More detailed information on this important development: Bundesbank to retrieve $200 billion in gold reserves Bundesbank to pull gold from New York and Paris in watershed moment | ||
| Confiscation of Gold – Then What? Part 6 Posted: 15 Jan 2013 02:00 PM PST Readers may not agree with our conclusions on the confiscation of gold, but we continue to emphasize this reality. If we are wrong you will still own your gold; if we are right and you have not taken the right steps to guard against confiscation and the personal dangers to you individually, then you will lose your gold if not suffer the penalties the "Gold Confiscation Order" brings with it. | ||
| Posted: 15 Jan 2013 01:51 PM PST January 15, 2013
"Likening Congress to a family arguing that it can improve its credit rating by deciding not to pay its credit card bill," says a Reuters account, "Bernanke said that raising the legal borrowing limit was not the same as authorizing new government spending." Bernanke has fallen victim to BAS — Bad Analogy Syndrome. The proper analogy is one of a family with a rotten credit rating asking the credit card company to up its limit. What's more, if the company agrees, what do you think happens next? True, raising the limit isn't the same as new spending, but the one follows the other as surely as night follows day. Besides… if Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling, matters could be immediately set right by balancing the budget. The outstanding bills could still be paid, eventually. "But… but…wait!" you can almost hear a generic congress member sputtering. "We'd instantly slash the federal budget by 40%! We'd tank GDP! Tax receipts would crater! Then we'd have to cut the budget even more!" Yeah… and your point?
"That can be a dangerous time to invest," he adds with portent. "Stock prices can come down pretty hard when the 'E' in 'P/E' starts to shrink."
John Hussman has a passion for historical market data… and he often debunks popular stock market myths by testing them against historical data. He runs a fund that's generated 80% returns since its launch in July 2000. (The S&P, for all its ups and downs the last 13 years, is essentially flat.) "The strongest investment returns emerge at points that are diametrically opposed to what we observe today," Hussman writes. Corporate profits as a share of GDP are about 70% above their historical average. When profits are this far above average, history shows that a long correction is inevitable. Hussman illustrates with a chart. "The chart below shows the ratio of corporate profits to nominal GDP (red line), along with the subsequent annual growth rate of corporate profits over the following four-year period (right scale, inverted). Note that the inverted right scale means that higher values represent slower profit growth." Or to put it another way: Lean years follow fat years. "At present," Hussman concludes, "current profit margins are consistent with earnings contraction over the coming four-year period at something close to a negative 10% annual rate, implying a drop in corporate profits by more than one-third in the coming years," Hussman concludes. The S&P 500 is not nearly as cheap as Wall Street strategists would have you believe. In today's 5 PRO, we give you the tools to invest alongside a disciplined fund manager — rather than the S&P 500. If you've already signed up, the details are at the end of today's episode. If you're not yet signed up… time's a-wastin' if you want to give our PRO service a free trial run. Upgrade your account here.
Among the numbers in traders' sights…
"The black middle class has been devastated by the Great Recession, in part due to government policies imposed in the name of helping this very group. Unemployment among the young is at historic highs, even as politicians send them the bill for current unrestrained spending and debt. "Don't let the idiocy of politics overwhelm your sense of perspective. Realize that this is part of a familiar cycle and that things have been far worse in the past. It's good to remember Herbert Stein's words, 'Anything that can't go on forever won't.'" What's more, the biotech breakthrough dominating Patrick's radar "will be remembered long after the breathtakingly stupid politics and policy decisions of our time have faded from popular memory."
Clinical testing is likely to get under way this year in Europe. "Hundreds of research organizations are currently using this product in the quest for marketable therapies," says Patrick. The product is a medium for growing stem cells in 3-D shapes for joint and tissue repair. The scientists who developed it just had a paper accepted for publication. "It describes seven different types of cartilage, bone and tendon stem cells and compares them to the mesenchymal cells, which the adult stem cell industry is focused on. The problem with mesenchymal cells is that they cannot be controlled and, therefore, tend to become bone." Not so with the cells described in the paper. They're the induced pluripotent stem cells, or iPS cells that we described last week. These cells "can only become the exact type of cells needed for precise orthopedic purposes." And the potential goes far beyond orthopedics: It's what one of our researchers has gone so far as to label "the God Switch." Not a bad name for the ability to transform a basic skin cell into a beating heart cell as healthy as the day you were born. Yes, the technology has its critics — politicians and preachers among them. Which is why the researcher we put on the case is keeping his anonymity. "This company," he says, "has already been granted hundreds of patents related to the God Switch. Therefore, no other company can use it or make money off it unless they pay this company first." Nor do the company's advantages end there. For a comprehensive rundown, give this a good look.
And at $1,685, the price of platinum is now higher than the price of gold for the first time in 18 months. A return to normal? We shall see…
"And," says Byron, "it's a buy. "As the chart indicates," Byron writes, "palladium prices crashed in the 2008 meltdown. Then things recovered steadily for about two years. Palladium pricing was strong into 2011, but weakened near the end of that year and languished all through 2012." Palladium is used mainly in automobile and truck catalytic converters, "particularly for low-temperature exhaust, specifically from diesel engines," says Byron. "For high-temperature exhaust from gasoline burners, you need platinum. But for diesel engines, palladium will do fine. That's why I stated, above, that you may be sitting on palladium if you drive a diesel-powered vehicle. "Looking ahead, the auto sector is recovering in Europe, North America and across the developing world. Automakers have scheduled their production runs, and what's the fastest-growing kind of vehicle? Diesel-powered. "Meanwhile, mine output of palladium is stagnant, while global stocks — primarily from Russia — are as tight as banjo strings."
"What we are seeing," Nasdaq.com writes, "is an emerging market story based around the demand for precious metals, whereas gold is a global monetary policy story. Gold doesn't have the same real end industrial demand as palladium, especially in emerging markets." Yes, there's a direct way to play it — which Byron shares in the current issue of Outstanding Investments.
Last month, the EPA issued new clean-air regulations. It cuts by 20% the allowable amount of soot coming from smokestacks, diesel trucks… even woodstoves. No, the current wood stove you have in your cabin is OK. But if you buy a new one, it must comply with the new regulations. And you can't sell the old stove. "Replacing an older stove with a cleaner-burning stove will not improve air quality if the older stove is reused somewhere else," explains a not-so-helpful FAQ at the EPA website. "For this reason, wood stove changeout programs usually require older stoves to be destroyed and recycled as scrap metal, or rendered inoperable."
"Rendered inoperable"? Will dumping sodium silicate into an old woodstove do the job the way it did with old car engines? "Let's hope this doesn't fall under the jurisdiction of the newly created Department of Homeland Security Environmental Justice Units," suggests Rob Richardson at a site called Off Grid Survival. "The next thing you know we might all be getting a knock at the door. 'Your neighbor reported that you might be burning some wood, do you mind if we take a look around?'"
"Although poorly written, in my opinion, the intention of the act is to identify anyone selling gold or silver items that had been stolen and that the seller does not really own. Assuming that I am not a 'business,' I could personally buy 'precious metal' items and no registration would be required. "However, after the rules are written when this act is passed, I potentially would have to report any 'precious metal' item that I purchased at a jewelry or coin store if an individual is defined as a 'business.' The language in SB3341 leaves too much room for interpretation! "I discussed SB3341 with a local jewelry store owner in central Illinois. He stated that he already has to do most of the reporting detailed in SB3341 as required by the Patriot Act. Thus, SB3341 is redundant legislation. "I contacted my local Illinois state representative's office. I expressed my concerns and requested a no vote if this act is brought to the floor of the Illinois House of Representatives." The 5: We did read it… and it was both the sloppy language and the slippery-slope aspect you describe that made us perk up. It reminds us of the infamous 1099 provision of Obamacare, mercifully repealed before it could ever take effect. It would have required every business to issue an IRS Form 1099 to every vendor from whom it buys more than $600 in goods or services every year. Aside from the ludicrous spectacle of a small business owner issuing a 1099 to Office Depot, the rule also raised the specter of precious metals dealers creating a paper trail every time they bought a Gold Eagle from someone unloading a bit of their stash.
"Will the God Switch end wars, or make the brain impervious to a well-placed bullet? Will the God Switch remove the need for nutrition and hydration? How well does the God Switch hold up against fire or radiation? "And say you do get shot or burned or starved — do you go on living in agony that never ends? Could an immortal criminal be sentenced to an eternity of suffering in his own private hell here on Earth? "The dying Stewart Alsop maybe got it right when he said, 'A dying man needs to die, as a sleepy man needs to sleep, and there comes a time when it is wrong, as well as useless, to resist.' Be careful — very careful — of what you wish for." The 5: Well, they're youthful cells, but they're not invulnerable. They're as subject to trauma and require as much care and feeding as any other cells. Still… imagine a world free of cancer, heart disease, diabetes and arthritis. It's tantalizingly close… as the startling video clip at this link reveals. Cheers, Dave Gonigam The 5 Min. Forecast P.S. Our "loyalty rewards" program is once again open for a limited time. You could be entitled to $1,044 in benefits this year… and $4,940 in benefits each year after. Details here.        |
The birth, and the apparent death, of the trillion dollar platinum coin idea may one day be recalled as a mere footnote in the current debt crisis drama. The ultimate rejection of the idea (which was to use a loophole in commemorative coinage law to mint a platinum coin of any denomination) by both the the President and the Federal Reserve seems to offer some relief that our economic policy is not being run by out-of-touch academics and irresponsible congressmen. In reality, our government has been creating more than one trillion dollars out of thin air every year for the past five. The only difference is that the blatant dishonesty of a trillion-dollar platinum coin is so easy to understand that the public simply couldn't be expected to swallow it. The American people are more than willing to be fooled, but they won't tolerate so simple a ruse. 
"It's very, very important," said Fed chief Ben Bernanke, evidently in a hectoring mood yesterday, "that Congress takes the necessary action to raise the debt ceiling to avoid a situation where our government doesn't pay its bills."
Actual artwork from an actual EPA brochure
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