saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Inside Citigroup's 2013 Precious Metals Outlook
- Archstone Sale Caps Lehman Collapse
- The value of the dollar
- The Only Reason To Short Gold
- The circus moves on
- John Hathaway: This Is What Is Going On Behind The Scenes In The Gold War
- Links for 2012-12-08 [del.icio.us]
- The Grey Lady Voices Some Skepticism About IPO of Single Family Rental Player Silver Lake
- Gold is Money
- South Korea buys more gold amid speculation on currency market intervention
- Yanis Varoufakis: Why Europe Needs More Leaders Like Bruno Kreisky, Who Navigated 1970s Upheaval and Stagflation Well
- Catherine Austin Fitts: Precious Metals Market Report – Coming 12.13.12
- David Morgan & Alan Butler talk SILVER
- Tiffany's Silver and Poison Berries
- What Does Tax Loss Selling Look Like on Short Term Charts?
| Inside Citigroup's 2013 Precious Metals Outlook Posted: 09 Dec 2012 09:36 AM PST By CommodityHQ: By Jared Cummans As 2012 nears its close, investors are beginning to look toward a new year, one that will hopefully be less volatile for the commodity world. The precious metals world, in particular, saw a fair amount of volatility throughout the past year as this elite group of four has rarely had a quiet period. With the approaching fiscal cliff and economic uncertainty fresh in the minds of many, predicting where these commodities will end up next year has become a hobby of analysts all across the market. Citigroup (C) recently came out with its forecast for these four metals for the coming year, and Citi has some insights that investors may want to pay attention to prior to making allocations. Gold To Gain…For NowGold's average price in 2012 fell at $1,679/oz, and Citi expects the yellow metal to add to that tally for Complete Story » |
| Archstone Sale Caps Lehman Collapse Posted: 09 Dec 2012 07:52 AM PST By Peter Pham: The collapse of Lehman Bros, which precipitated the global financial crisis, has left the company with very few options. As part of its bankruptcy restructuring it has decided to sell one of its most prized possessions, its real estate division Archstone Enterprises to two REITs AvalonBay Communities (AVB) and property tycoon Sam Zell's Equity Residential (EQR), in a $6.5 billion cash and stock deal. According to the deal, Equity Residential will acquire 60% of Archstone while the rest will be taken over by Avalon Bay. The two will also take over Archstone's $9.5 billion in debt. Lehman acquired the firm for $15.5 billion, excluding its $6.9 billion debt, just months before the real estate collapse. The irony here is that the massive size of the Archstone deal and its poor timing played a crucial role in Lehman's collapse. Now, that same Archstone will please Lehman's creditors as the Complete Story » |
| Posted: 09 Dec 2012 06:00 AM PST I very rarely criticise the work of others, but I am going to make an exception in the case of Paul van Eeden, of Cranberry Capital. Mr van Eeden, in an interview with The Gold Report stated that ...  |
| Posted: 09 Dec 2012 05:30 AM PST By Cliff Wachtel: Gold's loss of momentum in the past months has predictably brought out calls to short gold. Here's a brief guide to whether you should consider or ignore these. FIRST UNDERSTAND WHAT GOLD IS AND WHAT IT ISN'TAs I've discussed repeatedly in both my articles over the past year (most can be found here or here), and in depth in my recently published book, there is widespread confusion about what really drives gold and what kind of asset it really is. The short version:
Complete Story » |
| Posted: 09 Dec 2012 01:42 AM PST I forgot to post that TF Metals Report responded to my response to Andrew Maguire's article on price suppression mechanics. Gene Arensberg did a post on my November 30 article. I watched it for a few days but no one commented so I stopped checking it. A day later on the 5th blogger Dave In Denver posted some comments, which I missed. TF picked up on these comments a day later, turning them into a post titled Cage Match: Bron vs. Denver Dave. Dave's main beef seemed to be that I didn't critique GLD and was thus an apologist for the ETFs. He completely missed the point of my response, which was solely about addressing the suppression mechanics. You can find my response to Dave here. One important extract is some core views I have:
The third last one is one that annoys me whenever I see it - this judgemental attitude that you must hold your metal without any consideration that what is right for you may not be right for someone else. Interestingly, at the TF blog no one was interested in my response and it didn't gather any further debate. As I commented at TF: I wasn't expecting much comment one way or the other. TF posts so frequently that the circus moves on and unless you can comment within the day of the post it is too late, which is difficult for me being 12 hours behind. I do not like getting into this sort of infighting but as everything lives on forever on the internet and if you don't reply the claims stand and become accepted as fact. This whole negative dynamic is not good as I agree with Gene Arensberg's comment (where Dave's comments originally appeared) "In fact they succeed only in one respect - of confusing and turning some people off to the entire sub-sector. It is a pity they do not realize that one cannot poison just part of a well." My response will also be a handy reference link to give next time I'm accused of being a bankster shill. I suppose it reflects the fact that the TF Metals Report has a client base who are just buy and hold type stackers. They have made their decision and thus most of them aren't interested in debating or learning, they are primarily there for entertainment. TF's use of "army" imagery and the "cage match" characterisation are indicative of that. Nothing wrong with that, except that I don't know how they are going to know how to assess when to sell their metal, which is something they will have to work out for themselves because it is doubtful TF or Maguire (or many people selling gold products) will do it as it doesn't help your business model to tell your clients to leave. However, if they haven't spent the bull market thinking critically and trying to understand the market's dynamics, it is likely they will get the exit all wrong. The true test of who the charlatans are in this business will be those who continue to say buy buy buy all the way through the bubble top as they try and squeeze every last bit of profit out of their clients before they close up shop and move on to the next story.  |
| John Hathaway: This Is What Is Going On Behind The Scenes In The Gold War Posted: 09 Dec 2012 12:38 AM PST Today 40-year veteran John Hathaway spoke with King World News about what is going on behind the scenes in the gold war. The four-decade veteran and prolific manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund discussed what is happening with central banks and large private wealth in terms of gold purchases and ongoing dialogues. Yes, Hathaway also had something to say about Goldman's call. Eric King: "John you had mentioned to me before we went on the air that one of the reasons Goldman (Sachs) may have made that call (for the end of the gold bull market) is because they are trying to buy gold for China on the cheap. I know you've seen the chart from Egon von Greyerz that shows Chinese gold production, plus net imports. It's a shocking chart when you really look at the growth there." Listen @ kingworldnews.com ~DF |
| Links for 2012-12-08 [del.icio.us] Posted: 09 Dec 2012 12:00 AM PST
 |
| The Grey Lady Voices Some Skepticism About IPO of Single Family Rental Player Silver Lake Posted: 08 Dec 2012 11:11 PM PST This site refrains from talking about individual stocks, since we don't give investment advice. However, a potential sea-change is underway, as a large portion of the inventory of foreclosed homes is being converted to rentals. Private equity firms are pursuing this opportunity eagerly, as the combination of low financing costs and tight rental markets in the US means that, at least on paper, investor believe they can earn attractive income, with potential for appreciation, either by eventually selling the houses to individuals or by taking the company public. Given all the excitement over this conversion (it was voted the best opportunity over the next 12 months at a real estate conference I attended in the fall), it was interesting to detect a fair bit in the way of reservations in an article in the New York Times on the first IPO in this space, Silver Lake. Once it completes an acquisition, this REIT will own a bit over 3000 homes and plans to focus on Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada. I'll confess to not having read the S-1 (I expect I will when I get caught up). I don't consider this to be much of a loss since these homes were all acquired too recently to have reached stabilized yields, which is a function of not just rental levels relative to acquisition costs, but fix up and maintenance, normal turnover, and delinquencies/evictions. Historical financial data is not going to be a predictor of the future. What I find more interesting is how the Times piece, which hews to the journalistic convention of telling both sides of the story, winds up being less than convincing about Silver Bay and features more informed criticism than you'd expect for a piece of this sort. Some of this admittedly relates to Silver Bay. It's chief is the 35 or 36 year old David Miller, former Goldman investment banker, then as the Chief Investment Officer of the TARP. Given Neil Barofsky's pointed criticism of Treasury's lack of interest in fraud, and Elizabeth's Warren's finding that the TARP was buying back warrants too cheaply (which led Treasury to pay more after this unflattering finding), it's hardly clear that he did as great a job there as his glowing press clips suggest (unless you consider his job to be serving Timothy Geithner in his capacity as bailouter in chief). And it's not at all clear how doing "special situations" and valuing mortgage securities qualifies someone to run an operating business (my general experience with bankers is they think the ability to oversee a small number of highly paid and motivated lawyers, associates, and secretaries means they know how to manage complex operations). One of the longer-established players stressed the need for hands-on management and local expertise:
This is the premise:
The big difference is that the S&L crisis led the FDIC to wind up with an enormous portfolio in its hands which it proceeded to liquidate in bulk sales. The earliest sales produced tremendous profits, partly due to the lack of price parameters, partly due to the fact that the Resolution Trust Corporation knew it had to allow the initial deals to be steals to entice buyers into the pool. By contrast, the Fannie/Freddie bulk sales program has been slow to launch and has become unnecessary; PE investors are so eager than servicers are selling homes individually. Local investors are even assembling small portfolios of homes that meet PE buying criteria and are flipping them. Some even think the market is sufficiently bid up that the remaining opportunity is short-lived in investment terms:
Not mentioned in the article was that the use of a REIT may prove problematic; virtually all of the PE firms and other investors pursuing rental strategies who spoke at the conference mentioned earlier were cool on it; they thought a straight-up operating company IPO was preferable. The attraction of a REIT is that dividends paid to investors are tax deductible, but REITs must dividend 90% of their taxable income. For other REITs, this has not infrequently led to scrimping on capital investment and improvements. And this is before we get to what most observers consider to be the fly in the ointment: single family homes have never been managed by large-scale, absentee landlords before. The PE mavens claim to have this solved, that they'll concentrate their buying in a small number of locations, that they've hired reputable contractors for maintenance and emergencies, and (at least some) say they do careful, in person assessment of prospective tenants. They also contend that technology will help them lower the cost of managing (I've never heard this explained in any detail, BTW). My own big doubt revolves around pricing power. The reason the rental market is so tight is precisely because the homeowners have left their properties much faster than the homes have been sold to new buyers and fitted up for rental. The high rentals are directly related to scarcity. As more PE firms put rentals onto the market, it has to alleviate the supply. At a minimum it will increase the time a home sits vacant before it is leased up again; it has the potential to lower rents from their current levels. I'm not saying there won't be a lot of money made. But I suspect just as the best play in the gold rush was supplying the prosepctors, here it is the various intermediaries who will clearly do fine. Focused, disciplined investors likely will as well, but at this stage, you can't readily tell the poseurs from the real deal. And institutional investors (at least the ones I met) were skeptical of the promoters' claims. For instance, most of the projections they've seen assume 5% annual rent increases. That simply does not map onto an economy where labor has no bargaining power and 2/3 of the jobs being created are low wage. The Silver Lake IPO could still be a good short term play. It has the potential to trade at a premium to whatever one thinks its fundamental value is by being the only pure play in a hot new space. Personally, I'd rather play the ponies.         |
| Posted: 08 Dec 2012 10:00 PM PST Mises |
| South Korea buys more gold amid speculation on currency market intervention Posted: 08 Dec 2012 09:17 PM PST GATA |
| Posted: 08 Dec 2012 09:15 PM PST By Yanis Varoufakis, a professor of economics at the University of Athens. Cross posted from his blog In yesterday's post, I asked the question: Why has European social democracy abandoned the legacy of leaders like Kreisky, falling in line with a toxic economics and politics that thinkers like Kreisky would have dismissed in their sleep as pathetic claptrap? My allusion to, and explicit endorsement of, Bruno Kreisky (the late Austrian social democratic chancellor) brought on the following critical response from Klaus Kastner, who obviously thinks that Kreisky is not as much of a shining example as I am making him out to be. I quote his comment in its entirety, and then provide a rejoinder to it. Klaus Kastner: As an Austrian, and being somewhat familiar with your thinking and value structures, I am surprised that you would think/speak so highly of Kreisky. After all, the man could only come to power because he agreed to form a coalition with a 5%-party (FPÖ) which was then (correctly) considered to be the refuge for former Nazis. The head of that party, Kreisky's Vice-Chancellor, had been an SS-Obersturmführer assigned to units which had shot hundreds of thousands of Jews in Eastern Europe (n. b.: he never denied being there but insisted that he was always off-duty when massacres occurred). Five ministers in Kreisky's first cabinet had a Nazi-past, one of them even a neo-Nazi record. When mad at Simon Wiesenthal for revealing the above, Kreisky had the nerve to insinuate publicly that Wiesenthal could only survive the Holocoust because he had been a Nazi-collaborator. In an interview with a Dutch journalist, Kreisky stated that "the Jews are no people, and if they are, they are a lousy people". Incidentally, he didn't have that problem with Palestinians and, most notably, Arafat. When the representative (a mature lady) of hundreds of thousands Austrians who opposed a nuclear power plant called on Kreisky, he sent her off saying in front of running cameras: "I don't need to have this where a bunch of rascals treat me like this!" When Niki Lauda (by whom Kreisky loved to be driven around) got entangled in a tax-evasion situation, Kreisky said publicly that the authorities should back off. After all, Lauda had done so much for the prestige of the country. And last but not least, Kreisky managed to increase Austria's debt from near-zero to over 50% of GDP. Experts, like I believe you also, insinuate these days that 120% is about the maximum sustainable debt. So Kreisky managed during a dozen years of government to eat up almost half of Austria's debt capacity. He provided a Golden Age to this generation, something which the children of this generation will never ever see because of what Kreisky had started (and others of his party diligently continued). Having said all this, Kreisky was an enormously charismatic leader who caught the fantasies of many, many people. He certainly caught my fantasy at the time. It seems to me that he had something like a counterpart in Greece during his time. Similar political orientation and also very charismatic. And also a waster of the country's debt capacity. Yanis Varoufakis: As a Greek, let me first state for the record (as I did in my talk at the Kreisky Forum the other day), that Kreisky was a pillar for strength during our neofascist dictatorship, providing substantial support to Greeks on the run from that awful regime. (At the very same time, he provided similar refuge for Checks on the run after the Prague Spring, evidence of his commitment to supporting all victims of authoritarianism.) For this reason alone, my family and I owe him a debt of gratitude. Beyond personal 'bias', I welcome Klaus' response as an opportunity to re-investigate Kreisky's legacy. Let me break down our 'exchange' to its three main parts: Kreisky's economic and social policies, Kreisky on the Jewish Question, and Kreisky at large. Economic and Social Policies Kreisky will go down in history as the social democrat who exposed the fallacy behind the assumption that government can only combat social inequality at the expense of inefficiencies, waste and cronyism. Moreover, his period in office revealed that it is perfectly possible to combine a large state sector (including the nationalisation of key industries) with a buoyant private sector. His government built up a stupendously successful educational system that gave equal opportunities in life to Austria's working class. At once, Austria not only became world famous for its low levels of inequality but also, remarkably, for its substantial increase in wealth. The notion that equality is to be bought at the expense of lower aggregate living standards was well and truly buried by the Kreisky administration. As for the increase in debt to GDP ratio, it helps to bear in mind that the 1970s (Kreisky was Chancellor from 1970 to 1983) was a tumultuous period, following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system) during which world capitalism was buffeted by high unemployment, high inflation and increasing debt (due, to a large extent, to the energy/oil crisis). By comparison to all other European and non-European industrial societies, Kreisky's Austria did magnificently well at weathering the storm and at protecting its citizens from a major global crisis. As a man who had experienced the awfulness of the 1930s in his bones, Kreisky rightly loathed unemployment and, famously, stated that "hundreds of thousands unemployed matter more than a few billion schillings of debt". Hear, hear, I say. If only Europe today had the same prescience and wisdom we would have had less unemployment and less… debt. Regarding the charge that debt to GDP rose to 50% under his reign, thus "exhausting Austria's debt potential", my view is that it was a tiny price to pay for having managed to weather the 1970s crises with minimal social costs and with an Austrian working class which, unlike others, did not need to turn to private debt (i.e. credit cards) in the 1980s in order to finance life. The result was a total (private + public) debt that was and remains very, very manageable. In short, Austria was and remains better off as a result of Kreisky's policy choices. Indeed, if his vision had been alive today, Austria would have helped the Eurozone, and itself, much more effectively in our collective struggle against our present Crisis. Kreisky on the Jewish Question There is one fact about Bruno Kreisky that is conspicuously missing from Klaus Kastner's tirade against him, especially in relation to his attitude to former members of the Nazi regime: that Kreisky was himself a Jew! As a Jew and a socialist, persecuted by the Nazis both for being a Jew and for being a socialist (nb. he had fled to Sweden during the war), Kreisky felt he had the capacity to heal divisions in a post-war Austria that had to come to terms with the fact that the vast majority of both its elites and its population at large had either actively collaborated or had at least tolerated the Nazis. The fact that he did not dismiss members of his government for having had a Nazi past was, of course, highly controversial. But Kreisky thought, to his credit I think, that barring selected individuals for the errors that they had committed in their youth (within a country that, in its crushing majority, had embraced the Nazis), was silly and hypocritical (provided they had not committed actual crimes). It was his duty as a Jew to address this hypocrisy and to help Austria deal with its historical reality. Klaus mentioned the spat between two men that I admire immensely: Simon Wiesenthal, the celebrated Nazi hunter, and Bruno Kreisky. I wish the two of them had not exchanged such virulent phrases and insults. Wiesenthal kept us all on our toes, unearthing the way that Nazis were managing to slip into normal life in a bid to escape punishment and to render Nazism innocuous. Kreisky gave himself the task, mentioned in the previous paragraph, of using his Jewishness in order to heal Austrian society and to ensure that Nazism would never return (e.g. by eliminating mass unemployment). I believe that the clash between the two men stemmed from (a) the great difference in these roles that each had adopted, and, importantly, (b) another, deeper and more violent clash that was brewing in the postwar period amongst Europe's Jews; namely, the clash between Zionist and anti-Zionist Jews. This is, of course, not the place to delve deeply into the Zionist issue. Suffice to say that Wiesenthal was a Zionist and Kreisky was not. Unlike the Zionist movement, Kreisky believed strongly that European Jews should not seek refuge in the creation of a nation-state in Palestine, by treating its Arab population as a non-people to be expelled violently, but that they should seek safety and their rightful place within their own European societies. In this sense, Kreisky belonged to a group of internationalist, non-Zionist or even anti-Zionist Jews, which included Albert Einstein and Hanna Arendt. Their view of themselves, as Jews, was that Jewishness is not a racially based identity (of blood and land) but a cultural and spiritual one that does not need the full panoply of a state, with borders, armies etc., in order to preserve itself. So, when he sometimes said that Jews are not a nation, or even a well defined race of people, he was proclaiming his Jewishness as a cultural notion, in sharp contrast to the Nazi-leaning view of a people as constituted by blood and soil. In short, the conflict between Wiesenthal and Kreisky had many of the hallmarks of a family feud. It reminds me of the clashes I have with fellow Greeks when I argue that it really matters not at all whether we modern Greeks are the true, blood descendants on Plato and Aristotle. That what makes me Greek is my language, culture and sense of self, identity etc. I can also imagine myself saying that we Greeks are not a race and that if we are we are a pretty lousy one. Only a fool would take this to mean that I am anti-Greek or racist toward Greeks! Lastly, since Klaus mentions Arafat, his support for the Palestinian cause (on the grounds of fairness and justice) was exceptionally meaningful given his status as Austria's first Jewish Chancellor. For that he will go down in history as a virtuous pioneer. I only wish we had more of them in our sad day and age. Kreisky at Large Above all else, Bruno Kreisky was an internationalist. Even before the Third World debt crisis hit, he was advocating a Marshall Plan for Africa and Asia. His support for liberation movements, in the West, in the South and in the East, was steadfast and unswerving. His judgment was not always perfect (e.g. in response to the oil crisis, which was threatening to choke Austria's economy, he embraced nuclear power) but he was a man known for his capacity to listen to the opposing arguments and change his mind. Moreover, unlike today's politicians, he was not afraid to oppose majority opinion if he thought it right. In conclusion, I stand by my enthusiasm for the man and by my claim that Europe is much the poorer for not having politicians like Bruno Kreisky in positions of power today.     |
| Catherine Austin Fitts: Precious Metals Market Report – Coming 12.13.12 Posted: 08 Dec 2012 07:39 PM PST And when they [wise men] were come into the house, they saw the young child with Mary his mother, and fell down, and worshipped him: and when they had opened their treasures, they presented unto him gifts; gold, frankincense, and myrrh. ~ Matthew 2:1 By Catherine Austin Fitts This Thursday, I am heading over to Middle Tennessee to join Franklin Sanders and report to you on the Precious Metals Market Report. Christmas is a special time for us here in Tennessee. To celebrate the season, I will tell the story of how giving gold and silver to the kids I love at Christmas inspired me to work with Franklin on launching his idea for a Silver and Gold Calculator – and how you can use it to do some nifty gifting to the children you love during the holiday season. Link to Silver Calculator – Franklin will update us on the gold and silver markets. We will discuss the impact of the latest fiscal cliff negotiations, the deflationary headwinds that have interrupted recent price rises, and key events coming up this month, including next week's Fed meeting and ongoing speculation about the new U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. Chris Powell, treasurer of GATA, will be joining us. Chris is a seasoned journalist and editor who has done an excellent job over the last decade of documenting misleading reporting by the financial press, particularly in regards to the precious metals market. My goal is to ensure that you are an astute consumer of media regarding the gold and silver markets. If anyone is going to be pumped and dumped on their precious metals positions during 2013, whether by mainstream or Internet media, let it not be a Solari Report subscriber! In Let's Go to the Movies, I will review an astonishing new documentary, The Queen of Versailles, the intimate story of a family who made a fortune in the time share industry. They began construction on the largest home in America – only to experience the largest foreclosure. from entv: You don't want to miss this Solari Report! Keep on reading @ solari.com ~DF |
| David Morgan & Alan Butler talk SILVER Posted: 08 Dec 2012 06:08 PM PST from silverguru: ~DF |
| Tiffany's Silver and Poison Berries Posted: 08 Dec 2012 05:56 PM PST |
| What Does Tax Loss Selling Look Like on Short Term Charts? Posted: 08 Dec 2012 12:30 PM PST Update 1: Adds longer term charts for context. HOUSTON -- Vulture G.L. in Europe asked if we could show examples of what tax loss selling might look like on our short term volume candle (VC) charts. The charts are evidently becoming popular. All of the examples below could, that's could be showing tax loss selling. Tax loss selling is often characterized by repetitive sales into the bid, as opposed to setting up on the offer, so they tend to show up as negative volume on our 1-hour and 30-minute VC charts. Of course there is no way to tell for certain what the motives behind any particular sale were merely by looking at a chart, but over time we do get a sense of the trading personality and can make reasonably informed assumptions from unusual activity – especially if that activity is consistent. First up is Timberline Resources (TLR). On Friday one particular seller unloaded a bit more than 100,000 shares into the bid, knocking the bid lower by as much as 4-cents. Interestingly, the sales seemed to be soaked up by more than one willing buyer. TLR closed the day lower, but well above its low print. Disclosure: Timberline is one of our largest SRC positions and we have set up a bid ladder to catch even more if it trades a tiny bit lower than it did on Friday. All charts are 15-day, 1-hour increment volume candle (VC), which show the relative size of the increments in both the trading candles and the volume bars. Edit Saturday 21:30 to add longer term charts for context by request. For context, a longer term weekly chart below comparing the issue to important indexes that track the junior miners. The first SON sellers set the tone, driving CSL lower and that fed on itself enough to trigger the second downward pressure event, tax loss selling. Yet a third factor is a 15-cent financing that is just now becoming free trading – which allows the participants to sell their shares at anything above $0.15 and still have the warrant in case CSL does well in the future. Although it is not strictly legal to sell the shares short and then replace them with private placement shares once the restriction has been removed, some of the placement participants find ways to sell the stock short (or an equivalent action) ahead of when the restricted stock becomes free trading (either by selling unrestricted shares already in hand or other, more opaque means, such as using separate accounts in divergent cross border brokerages, et al), so the downward pressure from the sales of placement participants actually comes in or begins well ahead of the expected free trading date. In the chart below we point to several periods of obvious negative liquidity, hammering the bid. Most likely that is tax loss selling at this late point, but all three factors could be in play. All three factors are likely to end shortly and we would not at all be surprised to see CSL finding overwhelming support (OS) before the end of the month – as the selling has now taken the share price well below where it probably should have given the good drill results this year. For context, a longer term weekly chart below comparing the issue to important indexes that track the junior miners.
The VC chart below shows a gap lower on huge volume, a combination of disappointment selling following the release of a batch of drill results that failed to live up to the still overly high expectations of the fickle trend jumpers and retail gamers, and likely a bit of a panic spike lower. The negative liquidity that follows that gap lower is likely in large part tax loss selling in our view. Despite the obvious fall from grace by GoldQuest since September, colleagues we know and respect are on the bid, not the offer for GQC – thinking more long term, but with more reasonable expectations. GoldQuest is one of the more interesting exploration stories out there. Disclosure: We are aggressively accumulating GQC at the moment, content to build our stake in the company while it is being "goatified" by a fickle, unforgiving market. We hold a recently acquired long position. For context, a longer term weekly chart below comparing the issue to important indexes that track the junior miners. Finally, one more from the Yukon. Kaminak Gold (KAM.V) broke long term support in early November and has come under what we call "Panic Spike" selling since then. Ironically, this particular panic spike follows a $12 million, $2.50/sh financing closed in early October, landing a major posture puncture for the company and the financing underwriters (RBC Capital Markets, Canaccord Genuity, Fraser Mackenzie, Mackie Research Capital, Paradigm Capita, and Raymond James). Ouch! The chart below shows what a panic spike can look like, and with Kaminak having broken major long term support it has become a kind of poster child for tax loss selling. However, it may be reaching the level we call "OS" or overwhelming support around the $1.00 mark. Heavy emphasis on the word "may." In private charts we have added the label "Capitulation Watch," meaning we are on the lookout for capitulation on this issuer imminently. This kind of irrational downward momentum can be surprising in both intensity and amplitude, so we cannot be surprised by just about anything price wise until the downward momentum and tax loss selling is exhausted. We Vultures love this kind of action, by the way – when we are in an accumulation mode.
For context, a longer term weekly chart below comparing the issue to important indexes that track the junior miners. Thanks for the question. We hope you find the above interesting. As always everyone should study the issues carefully and make their own informed decisions. We are high risk takers here at Got Gold Report. What we do - vulutre speculation - is not for everyone. |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Gold World News Flash 2 To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment