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- Goldman Sachs is looking out for us
- Jim Rogers: There's Too Much Speculation In Gold
- Top Dividend Stocks Favored By David Einhorn
- When Prices Have No Meaning
- Weakness in Gold “Being Caused by Futures Market”, “Mounting Risk” Britain Will Lose Triple-A Rating
- Gary Wagner’s Gold & Silver Outlook for 2013
- Gold Should Be Nearing A Major Bottom
- ECB : increase of oz1901,33 in gold and gold receivables
- Citi Cuts 11,000 Jobs, Illustrating Rentier Capitalism in Operation
- Gold versus yen update
- PMI and Keegan to Merge as Equals to Form Asanko Gold
- James Turk: Above-ground gold stock likely smaller than commonly thought
- “Gold Is A Physical Safe Asset” Says Central Bank of Korea
- Dollar Cliff?
- Alasdair Macleod: GLD and SLV are UnSafe
- Vision Victory: Hyperinflation 2013
- IT'S OVER: Goldman Calls The End Of The Great Gold Bull Market
- Precarious Spot for the Majors
- Gold is Useless! + 6 Other Reasons To Hate Gold As An Investment
- South Korea central bank bought 14 tonnes of gold in Nov
- Weakness in Gold 'Being Caused by Futures Market'
- Surge in gold coin sales
- Silver demand surging in Japan ?
- Bullion 'a Physical Safe Asset,' says Bank of Korea
- What Caused Gold & the US Dollar to Fall Together?
- Alasdair Macleod on safety issues with GLD and SLV
| Goldman Sachs is looking out for us Posted: 05 Dec 2012 12:58 PM PST Golman Sachs has an opinion about Gold prices going forward. Quote: The price of gold slipped to a one-month low below $1,700 an ounce on Wednesday as a weaker price forecast by Goldman Sachs triggered some fund liquidation, but some professional traders think the precious metal could continue to push higher. Refined gold is poured into molds. REUTERS/Siphiwe SibekoGoldman Sachs cut its 2013 gold outlook and said the metal's current bull cycle will likely turn next year as rising real interest rates and better growth offset monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve. "... Improving U.S. growth outlook will outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansion and the cycle in gold prices will likely turn in 2013," the New York-based investment bank wrote in a note to clients. Goldman cut its 3-month price target on gold from $1,840 to $1,825 an ounce while its 6-month target dropped from $1,940 to $1,825 an ounce, and its 12-month target fell from $1,940 to $1,800 an ounce. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pros-s...190821876.html | ||
| Jim Rogers: There's Too Much Speculation In Gold Posted: 05 Dec 2012 12:44 PM PST By CommodityHQ: By Jared Cummans Gold has been a major talking point in the commodity world for the last few weeks. Although it seems as if the metal has been grabbing headlines for the better part of a year, the anticipation of the fiscal cliff and the future of the U.S. dollar have gold investors on the edge of their seats. Famed investor Jim Rogers recently chimed in with his views on the precious metal, as he has been an owner for quite some time, but investors may not like what he has to say. After reiterating the shocking trend of gold turning in 12 straight winning years, Rogers pointed out that he feels the asset is the subject of too much trader speculation for the time being. "If you look at the open interest from the CFTC, the speculators have been piling into gold. The number of call Complete Story » | ||
| Top Dividend Stocks Favored By David Einhorn Posted: 05 Dec 2012 12:19 PM PST By Osman Gulseven: By Aubrey Tabuga David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital is an American hedge fund with around $6 billion worth of assets under management. Einhorn became famous for short-selling the Lehman stock prior to the latter's collapse in 2008. He is one fund manager who had benefited from strategic shorting when the market is struggling. Einhorn is popular for successfully turning his initial investment of $900,000 to a $6 billion hedge fund in a span of 12 years. In this article I investigate the dividend stocks that this popular hedge fund favors. These are Seagate Technology Public Limited Company (STX), Microsoft (MSFT), Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Ensco plc (ESV), and Einstein Noah Restaurant (BAGL). I analyze them from a fundamental perspective, focusing on the yield, stability of dividends, and growth prospects, to see whether they are worth Complete Story » | ||
| Posted: 05 Dec 2012 12:12 PM PST A reader recently passed along some fascinating material providing a detailed review of the Weimar Hyperinflation experienced by Germany in the 1920's, along with some astute analysis of those events in order to give readers a clear picture of this economic catastrophe. The purpose of this piece, however, is not to review that article; so those interested in further enlightenment will have to obtain it on their own. What my own reading of that analysis provided was both some interesting surprises, along with reinforcement of several of my own economic premises. Among the most important of these is the illusory nature of "change." The Weimer Hyperinflation provides us with a classic illustration of that concept. Viewed from nearly a century in the future, our assumption is that this "episode" was characterized by a consistent progression: either the parabolic explosion in prices (and collapse in the value of currency) which we are taught defines hyperinflation, or (at the least) some steady-but-dramatic linear progression. In fact Germany's hyperinflation did not unfold like that at all. Rather, there were dramatic ebbs and surges, including intervals of weeks at a time where the Reichsmark actually rose in value versus other currencies. Imagine the difficulty in trying to convince the Average German that their currency was "being destroyed by hyperinflation" when they saw it rising in value for weeks at a time. Hyperinflation, what hyperinflation? Undoubtedly, these Average Germans told themselves that if there were any hyperinflation event that they would "see it coming." They were wrong. With the modern citizens of our (collectively doomed) Western economies, their folly is two-fold. First they suffer from the same self-delusion of the German people: that they would/will see any economic catastrophe coming; or (at worst) recognize the event as it is happening. This alone is a potentially terminal lapse of judgment. Secondly, these Sheep have been deceived by the statistical lies of our duplicitous governments. The poster-child for this deceit is the U.S. government. For nearly four years a Cast of Liars (from government, media, and the banking community) have assured Americans that they have been enjoying an "economic recovery." Meanwhile, in the real world; the percentage of employed Americans continues to relentlessly decline, while retail sales in this "consumer economy" are collapsing. The economy of the world's Great Energy Glutton is so anemic that the U.S. is now a "net energy exporter"; due to plummeting demand within its own (energy-intensive) economy. If those reality-checks are not enough to rouse Americans from their propaganda-induced stupor, perhaps one final question will accomplish this. How could a "four-year recovery" take the U.S. directly to an economic Cliff? By definition, any "recovery" should be taking the U.S. economy away from any kind of economic cliff; since any honest characterization of an "economic recovery" directly and necessarily implies that the economy is healing. The Fiscal Cliff which the Corporate Media is trumpeting with as much hysteria as they can muster is proof (by itself) that there never was any U.S. economic recovery. | ||
| Weakness in Gold “Being Caused by Futures Market”, “Mounting Risk” Britain Will Lose Triple-A Rating Posted: 05 Dec 2012 11:52 AM PST Weakness in Gold "Being Caused by Futures Market", "Mounting Risk" Britain Will Lose Triple-A Rating THE WHOLESALE MARKET gold price traded just above $1700 an ounce during Wednesday morning in London, having risen back above that level in the earlier Asian session, though they remained near one-month lows. Silver hovered just above $33 an ounce this morning, down 1.3% on the week, while stocks and commodities edged higher. US and German government bond prices gained, while longer-dated UK gilts fell ahead of the chancellor's Autumn Statement in London, at which he will unveil the latest UK economic projections. A day earlier, gold fell through $1700 an ounce on Tuesday for the first time in nearly a month. "Because physical demand appears relatively robust at present, the fall in the price of gold was no doubt triggered mainly by the futures market," says today's commodities note from Commerzbank. Open interest in gold futures trading on the New York Comex fell for the seventh session running Tuesday, down around 10% from the start of last week, according to data from Comex operator CME Group – although that period does cover last Wednesday's sudden price drop. The volume of gold held by world's largest gold ETF SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) meantime rose to a fresh all-time high yesterday at 1351.2 tonnes. Britain's chancellor George Osborne was this morning expected to announce a downward revision of UK growth forecasts by the Office for Budget responsibility during Wednesday afternoon's Autumn Statement. Lower economic growth would cast doubt on Osborne's commitment to reduce the UK's government debt-to-GDP ratio by 2015. "The ratings agencies will not be impressed," says Societe Generale economist Brian Hilliard. "The risk is mounting that one or other soon strips the UK of its hallowed AAA rating." "You can criticize the government because we have had very little growth since the [2010 general] election because austerity has been too harsh," says George Buckley, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank. Activity in the UK services sector slowed last month, according to purchasing managers index data published Wednesday. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany's services sector showed signs of improvement during November, with activity contracting at a slower rate than the previous month, PMI data show. Similar data for the US are due at 08.30 EST, while the latest ADP Employment Report – regarded by some as a precursor to Friday's official nonfarm payrolls – is also due out today. In Washington meantime the Republicans risk pushing the US economy over the fiscal cliff, White House communications director Dan Pfeiffer said yesterday. "This is a choice of the Republican Party," said Pfeiffer. "If they are willing to do higher [tax] rates on the wealthy, there's a lot we can talk about." Unless Congress passes legislation to avoid it, tax cut expiries and government spending cuts are due at the end of this month and early January. "We suspect that it may be best to remain on the sidelines during December and let this momentous event play itself out," says December's commodities note from brokerage INTL FCStone. "There is always a chance, albeit a small one, that the politicians will actually fail to deliver, resulting in a multi-market meltdown that could set in during the first week in January… [but] we think the odds strongly favor a modest agreement that will likely be announced over the second half of December and one which should push most markets substantially higher." South Korea's central bank meantime announced Wednesday that it bought 14 tonnes of gold bullion in November. "Gold is a physical, safe asset and allows [the country] to deal with changes in the international financial environment more effectively," said a Bank of Korea statement. Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault's weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+ (c) BullionVault 2012 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. | ||
| Gary Wagner’s Gold & Silver Outlook for 2013 Posted: 05 Dec 2012 11:12 AM PST | ||
| Gold Should Be Nearing A Major Bottom Posted: 05 Dec 2012 09:59 AM PST David A Banister- www.MarketTrendForecast.com The recent rally in Gold took the metal from the 1620's to roughly 1800 per ounce before the ensuing corrective action began. Back around October 20th we warned our readers about a likely " wave 2" correction in Gold and we had several reasons for that warnings. One of the biggest concerns we had was that the sentiment surveys were running very hot at the time. The percentage of professional advisors polled that were bullish on GOLD was 88%, with 7% neutral and only 7% bearish. Elliott Wave Theory is the foundation of our work, though we are sure to mix in other clues and elements to "fact check" our reads. When you see sentiment readings that high, coupled with a $180 rally leading up to those readings, you can begin to look for clues of a top. The other warning signal we noted was the MACD signal which had crossed south and was a topping warning signal to get out of GOLD for intermediate traders. At the time, we surmised that a "wave 2" correction in sentiment, and therefore price was required to work off the overbought conditions. The first level attacked the 1681 areas roughly and then a "B" wave rally to 1751 roughly ensued. Wave 2's are made up of a 3 wave pattern, A down- B up- and C down to finish. It appears that GOLD is now in the final C wave down in sentiment to complete the correction pattern. Clues for the "C" wave include the Goldman Sachs quasi-bearish 2013 GOLD forecast that came out today. In addition, the media attempting to explain the drop in GOLD as being related to stronger than expected economic indicators or fiscal cliff negotiations, neither of which make any sense at all. We expect GOLD therefore to complete the C wave correction at 1631 or 1681 specifically. There are Fibonacci fractal relationships to the first leg down (The A wave) at those levels, and they tend to repeat themselves in terms of crowd behavior. At the 1681 level we have the C wave equal to 61.8% of the A wave amplitude. At 1631 we have a more traditional C wave equal to the A wave. In either event, look for a washout low in GOLD occurring at anytime near term, and for traders to start scaling in long. Below is the GLD ETF chart showing the two most likely bottoms for the precious metal, one of which already qualifies as of today's trading: Consider signing up for our free weekly report at www.MarketTrendForecast.com or take advantage of our 33% coupon by signing up today for SP 500 and GOLD forecasts updated on a daily basis. | ||
| ECB : increase of oz1901,33 in gold and gold receivables Posted: 05 Dec 2012 09:01 AM PST | ||
| Citi Cuts 11,000 Jobs, Illustrating Rentier Capitalism in Operation Posted: 05 Dec 2012 08:40 AM PST Citi is a particularly blatant example of a way of operating that has become endemic in American business: when things get tough, throw as many employees as possible over the bus, and use that to maintain or even increase the pay of the top echelon. In investment banking, the number of folks who are spared from corporate austerity is larger than in other businesses, since those businesses have more profit centers (a single trader can have his own P&L) but the same general principle applies. William Cohan of Bloomberg highlights this phenenomon: This is the reverse of how business used to operate. When I was a kid on Wall Street, the line at Goldman was that partners lived poor and died rich. Even though everyone's pay would suffer if the firm had a bad year (that was the poing of bonuses, you knew your pay depended on firm performance), the partners took more of the variability in pay themselves and did everything necessary to preserve employment levels. The first time Goldman had actual layoffs, as in fired people because the firm was having a bad year (as opposed to for individual performance reasons) was in the early 1990s, and it was highly traumatic. And this attitude was not unusual in Corporate America. A CEO would reduce his pay if his firm was suffering; broad headcount cuts were seen as a sign that a business was in very serious trouble, and the market often did not react well to them. Now Citi may have some fat in selected areas, and it is a famously badly run firm. But given how aggressive banks have been in wringing efficiencies out of their operations, and how much pressure Citi has been under to rationalize its businesses, these cuts look to be reactive, to reassure the Investor Gods that Action is Being Taken. On a broader basis, Henry Blodget wrote today how destructive the "cream for the top, crumbs for everyone else" business attitude is:
But Citi and its ilk are perpetuating this race to the bottom. We've had a radical shift in business and cultural values in a mere 30 years. Neofeudalism seems to serve the elites just fine, and many of those who are not on at top of the food chain seem reluctant to believe that the system has been restructured to exploit them. | ||
| Posted: 05 Dec 2012 08:15 AM PST Gold fell against the yen over the last week, as we approached the top of a larger consolidation range. The andyen;145,000 level is acting as a barrier again, and as a result the pullback wasn't ... | ||
| PMI and Keegan to Merge as Equals to Form Asanko Gold Posted: 05 Dec 2012 07:52 AM PST MERGER TO CREATE LEADING WEST AFRICAN GOLD DEVELOPMENT COMPANY Vancouver, December 5, 2012 --PMI Gold Corporation ("PMI") (TSX: PMV, ASX: PVM, Frankfurt: PN3N.F) and Keegan Resources Inc. ("Keegan") (TSX, NYSE MKT: KGN) are pleased to announce that today they have entered into a definitive arrangement agreement to combine their respective businesses (the "Merger") and to create a leading West African gold development company. A joint conference call hosted by Peter Breese and Collin Ellison will be held at 4:30 pm (EST) and 1:30 pm (PST) today (8:30 am Thursday in Sydney) to discuss this transaction. Call-in details are provided at the end of this release.
Peter Breese, President and CEO of Keegan, stated: "This is truly a unique and exciting opportunity to combine these two adjacent and near-term development projects and to have available some $340 million in combined cash to fund a Mid-Tier scale production growth profile starting in about two years. We expect significant synergies through the joint development of Obotan and Esaase which we expect will ultimately create one of the largest gold mining and exploration districts in Africa." FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT:
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| James Turk: Above-ground gold stock likely smaller than commonly thought Posted: 05 Dec 2012 07:48 AM PST | ||
| “Gold Is A Physical Safe Asset” Says Central Bank of Korea Posted: 05 Dec 2012 07:20 AM PST gold.ie | ||
| Posted: 05 Dec 2012 07:11 AM PST Merk Fund | ||
| Alasdair Macleod: GLD and SLV are UnSafe Posted: 05 Dec 2012 06:56 AM PST Andy Duncan interviews Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research at GoldMoney. They talk about possible security issues with the big gold and silver ETFs GLD and SLV due to insufficient regulation, and also discuss western central banks' gold leasing activities. from goldmoneynews: In his recent article (gata.org/node/11965) published on the GATA website, Alasdair Macleod writes about how custody arrangements for the GLD and SLV exchange traded funds may be compromising shareholder security because they exist outside the regulatory regime of the UK's Financial Services Authority, and instead solely rely upon the "good practices" of the LBMA. As part of their discussion, they touch upon the merits and risks of gold investors using ETFs as investment vehicles, as opposed to holding physical gold outside of the banking system. They further discuss the general flow of gold from the West to Asia, and the leasing practices of western central banks. The leased out gold is fabricated and mainly sold to Asian customers — who still regard gold as money — perhaps never to return to the leasing originators. As well as working for GoldMoney, Alasdair Macleod also publishes articles at his own website FinanceAndEconomics.org. This podcast was recorded on 3 December 2012. ~TVR | ||
| Vision Victory: Hyperinflation 2013 Posted: 05 Dec 2012 06:48 AM PST AIH talks with VV: from altinvestorshangout: ~TVR | ||
| IT'S OVER: Goldman Calls The End Of The Great Gold Bull Market Posted: 05 Dec 2012 06:40 AM PST The mighty Squid has spoken. Goldman commodity analyst Damien Courvalin is out with a big call: The top in gold is in. The firm says that the primary driver of gold prices are real interest rates (which have been super-low in the United States, in part thanks to aggressive Fed easing) and that with the economy coming back, this era is coming to an end. Before you get the details of this specific call, you have to understand the firm's overall view of the economy. Last Week, Goldman economist Jan Hatzius made a big economic call... that the era of sub-par, post-Financial Crisis growth would come to an end sometime in the second half of 2013. And Courvalin, in lowering his gold outlook, is keying off of this call. Here are the two key paragraphs from the report: Improving US growth outlook offsets further Fed easing Our economists forecast that the US economic recovery will slow early in 2013 before reaccelerating in the second half. They also expect additional expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. Near term, the combination of more easing and weaker growth should prove supportive to gold prices. Medium term however, the gold outlook is caught between the opposing forces of more Fed easing and a gradual increase in US real rates on better US economic growth. Our expanded modeling suggests that the improving US growth outlook will outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansion and that the cycle in gold prices will likely turn in 2013. Risks to our growth outlook remain elevated however, especially given the uncertainty around the fiscal cliff, making calling the peak in gold prices a difficult exercise. Gold cycle likely to turn in 2013; lowering gold price forecasts We lower our 3-, 6- and 12-mo gold price forecasts to $1,825/toz, $1,805/toz and $1,800/toz and introduce a $1,750/toz 2014 forecast. While we see potential for higher gold prices in early 2013, we see growing downside risks. The essence of the call is boiled down to this chart, which compares gold prices to real interest rates (inverted). Given their expectation that real interest rates will rise, gold will follow the dotted line, and will decline the same way there was a decline in the 1980s Goldman Sachs The key thing to realize is that this call is really the only natural corrolary to Hatzius' call that growth will accelerate to above-trend levels in the second half of next year. The firm's overall stance is that the deleveraging/balance sheet economic crisis is coming to an end. THat will end this rates era, and this huge run for gold. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldm...#ixzz2EBkOzePJ | ||
| Precarious Spot for the Majors Posted: 05 Dec 2012 06:34 AM PST
Precious metals gapped lower on Tuesday, showing a continuation of the weakness first displayed last week. Long bonds, meanwhile, managed to reverse higher, increasing the odds of an upside breakout from a bullish weekly consolidation pattern. The major indices look vulnerable here, especially from a weekly perspective. The Dow, for example, is showing a bearish wedge pattern in the context of a broadly intact downtrend. This also fits the pattern in multiple sectors and industries, where near term momentum has either gradually stalled or run into resistance. Another example of price action at resistance is the euro (EURUSD), which is now challenging the $1.31 level for the third time since September. Third time the charm? Perhaps not. Fiscal cliff negotiations remain a black box. Bulls hold out hope that a positive resolution could send equities surging higher, along with favorable seasonal patterns (stocks traditionally do well in December). But as of now, negatives appear to outweigh positives. Overextended and prone to mean reversion is a dangerous combo. We now have a handful of shorts on, including gold stocks (GDX), and a newly established long treasuries position. We'll be steadily adding more equity shorts to the roster if the market sees downside followthrough. For a detailed look at all our positions, including new setup parameters and position sizing in real time, check out the Mercenary Live Feed. Get Global Macro Notes via email p.p.s. Sign up for our Hedge Fund Regulatory Alerts! | ||
| Gold is Useless! + 6 Other Reasons To Hate Gold As An Investment Posted: 05 Dec 2012 06:24 AM PST "Gold is Useless!" and 6 Other Reasons To Hate Gold As An Investment Over the past few years [most] investors have become familiar with gold. The shiny precious metal has surged in price and has managed to hold strong while broad indexes have slipped, highlighting its appeal as a diversification agent and safe haven investment. This has prompted many investors to ramp up their allocations to the space in order to take advantage of these favorable trends and lead their portfolios to broad gains [but] there are a number of other issues that investors need to be aware of when considering allocating capital to the space, as there are several reasons to avoid the precious metal from an investment perspective. Below, we highlight seven reasons for why investors may want to temper their expectations for the metal and consider a more diversified approach that doesn't include such a large allocation to the 'barbaric relic'. So says Eric Dutram (http://commodityhq.com) in edited excerpts from an article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has further edited ([ ]), abridged ( ) and reformatted below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement. Dutram goes on to identify, and explain, the 7 reasons why one should hate gold as an investment, as follows: Despite the many positives for gold, [however, it] has run into some significant headwinds as of late slumping from its recent highs thanks to broad concerns over the global economy and a push back into dollars Since gold around the world is priced in U.S. dollars, an uptick in the value of the greenback tends to limit the demand for precious metals, making them less attractive in comparison, especially by those who view gold as an alternative currency. Thanks to this slumping price and the apparent topping out of gold in the short term, many are starting to reconsider the wisdom of investing in this precious metal. Fears over a bubble bursting in gold are starting to grow and a lack of demand from emerging markets, coupled with a stronger dollar, could force gold prices sharply lower to close out the year Below, we highlight seven reasons for why investors may want to temper their expectations for the metal and consider a more diversified approach that doesn't include such a large allocation to the 'barbaric relic': 1. Gold Is Useless The biggest knock against the yellow metal is its relative lack of uses in the industrial world. Close to two thirds of the current supply is used up in jewelry while investment accounts for another 20%. The remaining uses of gold go to dentistry, electronics, and a smattering of other applications that make up less than 5% of total demand. This is in sharp contrast to pretty much every other product in the commodity world. While copper and soft commodities are almost exclusively used for industrial purposes, the rest of the precious metal group sees a great deal of their production scooped up by industrial uses as well. Silver, platinum, and palladium, all find their way into several key applications including catalytic converters and electronics, not to mention more 'new age' technologies such as alternative energy. Although this may not necessarily be a bad thing given that it ensures that gold is entirely tied to 'fear' and dollar confidence, it does suggest that when industrial demand is surging, gold could be left out in favor of its more 'useful' cousins. 2. High Premiums For Physical Exposure to Gold While bid/ask spreads are generally pretty tight for gold futures, stocks, and ETFs, investors are likely to encounter a different trend in the physical gold space. Premiums on one ounce gold coins can be as much as $90 over spot price, a level that, at current prices, represents a nearly 5% cost to investors. While premiums go down when investors buy larger quantities, they are still a significant cost, with 10 oz. bars currently possessing a roughly 2.7% premium per ounce. One has to expect a similar, if not greater, situation to arise when selling a bar of gold suggesting that one has to obtain a nearly 10% gain just to break-even on a gold investment. Add in extra costs to ship the products, develop secure storage locations or to get a safe deposit box at a bank, and investors who seek to purchase gold and sell it within a short period of time seem almost destined to lose money. 3. Inflation Is Low Inflation, as represented by CPI, has been extraordinarily low for quite some time now in this country. In fact, inflation has only topped 5% once in the past 25 years while double digit inflation has not been in the marketplace since 1980. Furthermore, rates on bonds are also plumbing fresh lows on a seemingly monthly basis, suggesting to many that inflationary risks are still pretty slim, at least for the time being. This trend is further confirmed by a number of aspects in the American economy which appear to be deflating rather than inflating. For example, home prices are still flat and are no longer in 'bubble territory'; instead it is quite the opposite as many analysts are calling for further losses in the housing sector. A similar situation is happening in the consumer credit arena as well, as many citizens look to deleverage their balance sheets and clamp down on spending. As a result, many economists are worried about deflation and not inflation, much like Japan after its credit bubble popped in the late 80′s. Granted, this low inflation rate might change in the near future given the rapid increases in money supply and the possible loss of faith in the dollar, but at least for the time being, a slow steady rate of price increases looks to be here to stay, limiting gold's appeal in this environment. 4. Gold Still Ends Up Being Tied To Fiat [only because of stupid laws forcing it] One of the top reasons for gold bugs' love of the metal is that the product isn't subject to the whims of central banks around the world. Gold cannot be printed while dollars can be in an apparently unlimited supply driving down the value of dollars relative to gold. This is a great point for the most part as the Federal Reserve has done a terrible job of managing the money supply and the value of the dollar over its history, leading further credence to this idea. However, the main problem is that gold often ends up being tied to fiat decisions no matter what. For much of American history, the price of gold has enjoyed a fixed relationship to dollars. This rate was set by the government and has been adjusted several times in order to respond to market forces and crises such as the Civil War in which the dollar could not at least for a short time be converted into gold. Fast forward to the Depression and a similar situation arose when FDR confiscated all of the gold in the country and immediately devalued it by close to 60%. The point is, even at times when gold was the money of the land, governments had a substantial influence over its price either revaluing it outright or decreasing the metalic content of coins by fiat. Furthermore, gold only really has value because people believe it does. How this is any different than fiat currencies seems questionable at best and remains a very real problem for those who are advocating its return as a monetary instrument. While gold would arguably be a better monetary base given the current situation and the never-ending dollar printing, to think that it will not be influenced by fiat decisions seems pretty unlikely to say the least. 5. Gold Has Had Terrible Long Term Performance [forgets to mention that it's been artificially held low] Over the past few years, gold has been an all-star of the investing world, putting up gains that few investments could match. For example, over the past decade, gold has risen from about $250/oz. to its current level above $1,700/oz. an impressive gain at a time when broad markets were flat. While this is a pretty good track record, over longer time periods the metal hasn't done so well, failing to produce similar returns for investors. In fact, during the decade from 1991-2001, gold prices were pretty much flat while the S&P 500 nearly quadrupled. Furthermore, for any investors unfortunate enough to buy into gold at the end of 1979, right before the metal's all time peak, another flat performance was pretty much guaranteed over the 80′s, if not significant losses. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 nearly tripled in the same time frame, once again crushing gold's performance. While some might argue that these are 'cherry picked' results and to an extent they are it is difficult to find a decade that gold outperformed the S&P 500 besides the most recent one, suggesting that unless recent trends continue, investors with huge positions in gold may be very disappointed. 6. Gold Is Hard To Value Gold, like many commodities, is notoriously difficult to value. The product has no cash flows, dividends, or earnings, so values must be calculated based off of market sentiment and supply/demand imbalances and nothing more. While this may be fine in markets such as cocoa or wheat, gold, thanks to its historic role as money and its lack of industrial uses, can have sort of an odd relationship with markets due to this reality. Gold will often trade off of fear levels which is obviously hard to judge and can swing wildly in a short matter of time. Thanks to this, gold's price is pretty much determined by investor sentiment, making valuation models useless for this asset class 7. Euro Turmoil One geopolitical situation that looks to be impacting gold over the next few months is certainly the crisis in Europe. The continent has failed to get its debt situation under control and an expanded European Financial Stability Facility seems to be a necessity in order to boost confidence in the struggling bloc. Even then, an expanded program could sink the French economy and push investors to consider the trillion dollar market as only slightly better than the PIIGS nations. If this happens, it could still make investors reconsider a huge allocation to euros and bring up a fresh crop of issues in its stead. After all, what is bad for Europe has proven to be great news for the dollar over the past few months as the greenback has gained against its main currency counterpart in the past few weeks. Given this, many should not be surprised to note that gold has had a very rough stretch as the metal tends to move inversely compared to the U.S. dollar's value on the world stage. Assuming that these trends continue into the near future, and thanks to continued uncertainty in nations such as Spain and Italy, not to mention growing worries over France, they probably could. This would force many investors to buy up dollars as protection, pushing gold investments sharply lower in the process once again. Moral Of The Story Gold bugs are likely to be experiencing a mild heart attack by this point in the article but the above reasoning is hard to deny for most investors. With that being said, it doesn't necessarily make gold a bad investment overall especially in the short-term just that investors need to consider these issues before plunking down a huge chunk of their portfolio's dollars into the precious metal. While gold seems poised to keep its current price thanks to continued expansion of the monetary base around the world, it is always important to keep things in perspective In other words, a small allocation to the metal seems warranted given the broad concerns in the global marketplace and as an insurance policy against a collapse. With that being said, an allocation to gold exceeding even 10% of a portfolio seems like a terrible idea given the reasons outlined above, especially over the long-term, as history certainly isn't on the shiny metal's side. http://www.munknee.com/2011/10/gold-...an-investment/ | ||
| South Korea central bank bought 14 tonnes of gold in Nov Posted: 05 Dec 2012 06:14 AM PST 14 tons here, 20 tons there, it adds up. South Korea central bank bought 14 tonnes of gold in Nov * Bank of Korea increases gold reserves to 84.4 tonnes * Gold holdings at 1.2 pct of total foreign reserves, up from 0.9 pct By Christine Kim SEOUL, Dec 5 (Reuters) - South Korea's central bank said on Wednesday it bought 14 tonnes of gold in November using its foreign reserves in order to spread its portfolio risks, while releasing data showing total reserves rose after talk of market intervention. The Bank of Korea bought the gold for $780 million, the fourth purchase in about one-and-a-half years and lifting the proportion of gold in its total foreign reserves to 1.2 percent from the previous 0.9 percent, it said in a statement. "Gold is a physical, safe asset and allows (the country) to deal with changes in the international financial environment more effectively," it said in a statement, without providing more details on the purchase. The Bank of Korea now holds 84.4 tonnes of gold, valued at $3.76 billion in terms of purchase prices, up nearly six-fold from 14.4 tonnes before June last year. The Bank of Korea made its first gold purchase in more than a decade between June and July last year, joining some central banks in diversifying their increasing foreign reserves away from the U.S. dollar and low-yielding government bonds. Official sector buying has become a key factor supporting gold demand and prices in recent years. "It (South Korea's gold buying) points to stronger support for gold prices from central banks," said Philip Klapwijk, global head of metals analytics at Thomson Reuters GFMS, a metals consultancy. "If private sector investment falters and prices dip, central banks' buying supports prices at higher levels than if this demand were not present. It is a substantial additional source of demand for gold bullion." Central banks around the world bought a total of 351.8 tonnes of gold in the first nine months of 2013, up 2 percent from a year earlier, data from the World Gold Council showed. In comparison, private sector gold investment demand during the period dropped nearly 8 percent on the year to 1,139.3 tonnes, the data also showed. Spot gold traded just below $1,700 an ounce on Wednesday, up more than 8 percent so far this year. The Bank of Korea said it now expected its ranking among central banks around the world in terms of gold holdings to rise to 36th from 40th. Meanwhile, the central bank said foreign reserves rose by $2.6 billion last month to a record $326.09 billion, extending its record-breaking streak to a fourth consecutive month. It attributed the increase to investment gains but the data came after reports by traders of dollar-buying intervention by South Korean authorities during the month to curb the won's rapid appreciation. On Nov. 22 alone, currency traders estimated authorities bought up to $1 billion in the local currency market to temper a stronger won, which hurts the competitiveness of South Korean exporters. Central bank officials declined to comment on the talk of intervention. South Korea, which had the world's seventh-largest foreign exchange reserves as of the end of October, held 91.7 percent of its reserves in the form of securities. South Korean foreign reserves (in $ bln, at end-month): Nov Oct Sept Aug July June May 326.09 323.46 322.01 316.88 314.35 312.38 310.87 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...09F03Z20121205 | ||
| Weakness in Gold 'Being Caused by Futures Market' Posted: 05 Dec 2012 05:49 AM PST The wholesale market gold price traded just above $1,700 an ounce during Wednesday morning in London, having risen back above that level in the earlier Asian session, though they remained near one-month lows. | ||
| Posted: 05 Dec 2012 05:44 AM PST Goldmoney | ||
| Silver demand surging in Japan ? Posted: 05 Dec 2012 05:40 AM PST Goldmoney | ||
| Bullion 'a Physical Safe Asset,' says Bank of Korea Posted: 05 Dec 2012 05:34 AM PST Gold has recovered from the fall yesterday and overnight and is tentatively above $1,700/oz. There was no fundamental driver of the price falls yesterday or today. It may have been momentum traders selling as the short term trend is now down. | ||
| What Caused Gold & the US Dollar to Fall Together? Posted: 05 Dec 2012 05:15 AM PST The recent surge in daily volatility in gold is probably related to large funds liquidating positions or algorithmic-selling in addition to market's lack of confidence of gold to break $1,800. The US fiscal cliff bickering further eroded market confidence. | ||
| Alasdair Macleod on safety issues with GLD and SLV Posted: 05 Dec 2012 05:00 AM PST Episode 79: Andy Duncan interviews Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research at GoldMoney. They talk about possible security issues with the big gold and silver ETFs GLD and SLV due to insufficient ... This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
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