Gold World News Flash |
- Gold Supply Crunch Coming?
- Asian Metals Market Update
- From Good Jobs To Bad Jobs To No Jobs – The Tragic Downfall Of The American Worker
- A Millisecond Analysis Of The Latest Gold Smackdown
- Dollar Cliff?
- Richard Russell - God, Gold, The Shanghai Index & The Dollar
- Gold versus yen update
- Silver Update 12/05/12 Fiscal Cliff
- The Price of the Dollar
- Visualizing The World's Shifting FX Reserves
- Schiff - Doing Away with Debt Ceiling Drama
- Mass Wealth Redistribution Comming
- Is a Global Gold Supply Crunch Forming?
- A Relic of a Misguided Age
- It’s Hard Making Money in a Bull Market
- Gold Price Lost $2 Today is Silver's Strength Signalling a Short Lived Fall?
- A High-End Homebuilder Looks Ahead
- BBC's 'Panorama' killed report exposing silver market manipulation
- Silver Liberation Army Wants Sales Tax Exemption For Precious Metals
- Embry to speak in Vancouver and join Bishop at GATA reception
- Goldman's 'gold is dead' call is perfect contrarian indicator, Ron Rosen says
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Slightly Lower
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Take Five, Dave
- Why did the Signatories of the Central Bank Gold Agreement Stop Selling Gold & Keep the Rest?
- Pent-Up Potential for Precious Metals in 2013: Jason Hamlin
- In The News Today
- Jim's Mailbox
- David Morgan–Riding The Silver Channel To Huge Profits 5.Nov.12
- Jeff Wilson–It’s All About Continuing Your Real Education 5.Dec.12
- When Prices Have No Meaning
| Posted: 06 Dec 2012 12:15 AM PST Casey Research |
| Posted: 06 Dec 2012 12:01 AM PST The US economy in November has beaten street expectations with services and factory orders beating street expectations. The rise in the US economy has resulted in reduction in net long positions in gold or profit taking whichever way one might assume. Silver is still firm on expectations that higher global growth next year will increase its demand in factories and elsewhere. |
| From Good Jobs To Bad Jobs To No Jobs – The Tragic Downfall Of The American Worker Posted: 05 Dec 2012 11:20 PM PST from The Economic Collapse Blog:
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| A Millisecond Analysis Of The Latest Gold Smackdown Posted: 05 Dec 2012 11:15 PM PST from Zero Hedge:
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| Posted: 05 Dec 2012 11:00 PM PST by Axel G. Merk, Financial Sense:
In our assessment, the fiscal cliff, that is the looming simultaneous tax increases and spending cuts, is mostly a distraction. It's a distraction because, as significant as the short-term impact on GDP may be, "going over the cliff" does not solve our long-term fiscal problems. Indeed, we might as well call it European style austerity, as before factoring any slowdown induced by the cliff itself, the U.S. would continue to face a deficit exceeding 3% of GDP. More importantly, Medicare reform, in our view key to long-term budget sustainability, remains elusive. |
| Richard Russell - God, Gold, The Shanghai Index & The Dollar Posted: 05 Dec 2012 10:01 PM PST  With gold, silver and stocks on the move, the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, writes about God, Gold, the Shanghai Index and the dollar in a note to subscribers: "Gold is higher in the year 2012 for its 12th year in a row (up 9% this year, so far). This year investors have fed almost $8 billion into the most popular gold ETF -- GLD. One advantage for gold is that interest rates are historically low, which makes the carrying cost of gold very low and attractive."This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Posted: 05 Dec 2012 10:00 PM PST from Gold Money:
¥135,000 looks supportive at the moment. As you can see from the chart above, the pullback has thus far been shallow. Because of this, the bulls may step up their pressure on the bears. If that is the case, we could see a breakout in short order. |
| Silver Update 12/05/12 Fiscal Cliff Posted: 05 Dec 2012 09:03 PM PST from BrotherJohnF: |
| Posted: 05 Dec 2012 09:00 PM PST by Hugo Salinas-Price, SilverBearCafe.com:
"…the broken wall, the burning roof and tower, and Agamemnon dead." W. B. Yeats, Leda and the Swan It is a mistake to attribute a price to gold. What is in question today – and has been in question for a century – is not the price of gold, but rather the price of the dollar, and in turn, the price of all the fiat currencies of the world, which are nothing more than derivatives of the fiat dollar. The price of the dollar today is 0.01835 grams of gold. That it to say, it is less that two-hundredths of a gram of gold; physically, a tiny speck of gold. We have to turn the popularly quoted "price" of gold around: at $1,695 dollars for an ounce of gold. |
| Visualizing The World's Shifting FX Reserves Posted: 05 Dec 2012 08:02 PM PST It's estimated that the pound sterling made up around 64% of the world's official FX reserves in 1899. It had fallen to about 48% by 1913. As you'll likely glean from the graphic below, Addogram notes that historic recurrence seems to like operating in base-100 when it comes to reserve currencies. The dollar's share of global (official allocated) FX reserves has fallen from 72% in 1999 to 62% at present. As we have pointed out before - reserve currency status doesn't last forever...
The center of each "dynamic" pie chart below shows the composition of official (allocated) foreign exchange reserves in 1999. The further you move outwards from the center, the closer you draw to the present day.
Chart: Addogram |
| Schiff - Doing Away with Debt Ceiling Drama Posted: 05 Dec 2012 06:55 PM PST Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner made news last week by proposing to transfer the Congressional prerogative to raise the debt ceiling to the President. The change would essentially do away with the meaningless debt ceiling debates that have become ritual kabuki in Washington over the past few generations. Most Republicans have dismissed the proposal as a blatant executive power grab that will significantly weaken both the Congress and the minority party. While this is certainly true, Congress will only lose a power that it has never shown the slightest courage to actually use. But in truth, the proposal has the merit of refreshing honesty. By telling U.S. taxpayers, and the world in general, that the U.S. government has no intention of ever balancing its budget or limiting its accumulation of unsustainable debt, then perhaps we can begin to have an honest discussion about our economic future. Congress has always decided how much money the U.S. government will spend and how it will tax the citizenry to meet those obligations. Geithner's proposal will change none of that. The debt ceiling debates have been simply to authorize the U.S. Treasury to issue debt to cover the ever widening gap between what Congress spends and what it taxes. As a result, these debates have become nothing more than exercises in feigned outrage. If Congress wants to control the debt, let them do so. If they don't care, just continue on the current path. Dropping the pretense is at least more honest. The move will also help blunt the ridiculous assertions made by those in favor of lifting the debt ceiling that doing so somehow means that the United States is taking the prudent and moral step of "paying its bills." In a press conference this week, Obama Administration Press Secretary Jay Carney claimed that by raising the ceiling, U.S. creditors will know that our government will meet its obligations. That is taking Orwellian doublethink to new heights of absurdity. It is impossible to "pay" one's bills by borrowing more. Taking out new loans to retire existing debt may replace old creditors with newer, larger, creditors, but it can never be described as a real pay down. It's like paying off your Visa card with a Master Card. Paying one's bills requires that outstanding debt be diminished. In direct opposition to Carney's and Geithner's statements, the only way to force the government to actually pay its bills is to not raise the debt ceiling. But a fictitious debt limit is worse because it allows Congress to pretend that its atrocious budgeting decisions are not to blame. Both Congress and the President readily admit that without an increase in the debt ceiling, the government will default on its obligations. This is tantamount to an admission that we lack the capacity or political will to actually repay what we have borrowed. Yet despite this, our creditors continue to loan us more money. As existing Treasury Bonds mature, we not only borrow the money necessary to redeem them, but we borrow it from the very people cashing them in. So it's not really like paying our Visa bill with our MasterCard, it's like paying our Visa with our Visa. The debt ceiling itself is both an ill-conceived compromise and a relic of past governmental integrity. For its first 128 years as a republic, the United States was able to function without a debt ceiling. This was possible for the simple reason that U.S. government had no central bank and could not borrow beyond its ability to repay through taxation. And since the ability to tax is always limited by taxpayers' assets (and their extreme hostility to those who want to take them), legal gimmicks were not needed to prevent Congress from spending too freely. But the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 gave the Federal Government a potential means to borrow indefinitely by having the new bank buy its debt. Sensing this danger, the original Federal Reserve Act of 1913 prohibited the Fed from buying or holding government debt. But just four years later the United States needed a means to raise money quickly to pay for its efforts in the First World War. The government passed an amendment to the charter to allow the Fed to purchase Treasury Bonds. Fearing (correctly) that this would create a mechanism for perpetual debt expansion, conservative lawmakers insisted that the amendment include a "debt ceiling" provision that would cap the amount that the government could borrow. What these otherwise forward looking politicians somehow failed to grasp was that such a statutory limit was wholly meaningless, as it could be perpetually raised by future legislative action. This is exactly what has happened. The debt ceiling has been raised, with varying degrees of fanfare, every time it has been hit. This renders the law completely meaningless. Now of course, under the pretense of fiscal responsibility, the President wants to do the most fiscally irresponsible thing imaginable — eliminate the ceiling entirely. He hopes that doing so will send a clear and unequivocal message that America will never default on its debts. However, the message may not resonate the way the President hopes. What our creditors may actually hear is that nothing will stand in the way of America's accumulation of more debt. Such a development may be the shock therapy our creditors need to finally cut us off for good. If that occurs, interest rates in the United States could finally rise to more rational levels. A significant increase in the cost of borrowing will create the mother of all fiscal cliffs. It's too bad that Tim Geithner can't see that one coming. Source: http://www.europac.net/commentaries/doing_away_debt_ceiling_drama By: Peter Schiff Monday, December 3, 2012  |
| Mass Wealth Redistribution Comming Posted: 05 Dec 2012 06:13 PM PST Hang on to your ass with both hands.Mass Wealth Redistribution?
I don't know who wrote this, but thanks to Alan for sending it to me. Massive wealth redistribution? Looks like the Black House and it's Democrats are going to try to nationalize our retirement system. Can you imagine if your IRA had physical gold and silver in it, and the goons from D.C. decided to take your metals and substitute a "T bill?" Or if you had an annuity, and it was declared 'unfair,' so it was impounded and distributed to the 'less privileged?' What would be the difference between the U.S. and any communist nation or dictatorship, if this happens? If the Tea Party can come alive and allow the capture of the Senate and remainder of the House in 2014, there may be a chance at saving America. Here's the piece that was forwarded to me. "A recent hearing sponsored by the Treasury and Labor Departments, marked the beginning of the Obama Administration's effort to nationalize the nation's pension system, and to eliminate private retirement accounts, including IRAs and 401K plans, NSC is warning. "The hearing, held in the Labor Department's main auditorium, was monitored by NSC staff, and featured a lineup of left wing activists, including one representative of the AFL-CIO, who advocated for more government regulation over private retirement accounts, and even establishment of government sponsored annuities, that would take the place of 401k plans. "This hearing was set up to explore why Americans are not saving as much for retirement as they could," explains the National Seniors Council (NSC) national director, Robert Crone, "However it is clear, that this is the first step towards a government takeover. It feels just like the beginning of the debate over health care, and we all know how that ended up." "A representative of the liberal Pension Rights Center, Rebecca Davis, testified that the government needs to get involved, because 401k plans and IRAs are 'unfair to poor people.' She demanded that the Obama administration set up a "government sponsored program, administered by the PBGC." (That is the government pension benefit guarantee corporation). She proclaimed that even, "private annuities are problematic." "Such reforms, would effectively end private retirement accounts in America," Crone warns. "These people want the government to require that ultimately all Americans buy these government annuities, instead of saving or investing on their own. The government could then take these trillions of dollars, and redistribute them through this new national retirement system." "Deputy Treasury Secretary J. Mark Iwry, who presided over the hearing, is a long time critic of 401k plans, because he believes they benefit the rich. He also appears to be one of the Administration's point men on this issue. "This whole issue is moving forward very quickly," warns Crone. "Already, there is a bill requiring all IRA plans, in which part of every employee paycheck, would be automatically deducted and deposited into this account. If this passes, the government will be just one step away from being able to confiscate all these retirement accounts." "NSC has taken the lead in warning the nation about this new government onslaught, and is plotting ways to stop it. This effort, ultimately is designed to grab the retirement nest eggs of America's senior citizens. This new government annuity scheme, even if it is at first optional, will turn into a giant effort to redistribute the wealth of America's older citizens," explains Crone. "This scheme mirrors what I expect the President will try to do with Social Security. He wants to turn that program into a welfare program too. NSC will likely unveil a new grassroots campaign effort this year or early in January, to coincide with the seating of the new Congress." That's the piece. Know why Americans aren't saving? They can't, because of government caused inflation, and the fact that the government refuses to raise Social Security equally with its inflation. Know why they aren't saving? Because the buck is trash, and why save in a declining currency? Save water in a leaky bucket? What's the difference? The IRA's are next, and I try to talk people out of placing gold and silver in an IRA. Pay the taxes, get out of the IRA, and take the gold and silver home with you! Cash out of pension plans and annuities, and take the gold and silver home with you. Be rid of the government's plans to communize and socialize the entire nation. Did Obama and the democrats really win? Or were the ballots, counted in Spain, fixed? How many times did a person vote Republican, have a Democrat come up, and not notice? Fraud on top of fraud was the last election. P.S. In 1883, John Maynard Keynes, whose advice and warnings America and most of the world is following exactly, said: "By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of their citizen's wealth. While the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society, than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law, on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." This is from Don Stott's site, Colorado Gold |
| Is a Global Gold Supply Crunch Forming? Posted: 05 Dec 2012 05:11 PM PST Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst A number of market analysts and gold-industry insiders are warning about a possible shortage of gold supply. Barrick CEO Jamie Sokalsky recently stated that since gold production is inelastic (i.e., insensitive to price changes) there will be a very limited increase in supply from gold producers, even during sharp increases in the gold price. Rick Rule, a billionaire and avid gold investor, pointed out that while we're seeing spectacular demand, a number of issues will make supply very tight in the future, especially among retailers. The issues facing gold miners are well known: depletion of existing mines, lower grades, and fewer new discoveries – especially big and rich ones. Further, miners face increased calls for nationalization, demands from workers for higher pay or from local communities for better infrastructure, and – of course – environmental concerns. Many mining company representatives say it's gett... |
| Posted: 05 Dec 2012 05:10 PM PST December 5, 2012 [LIST] [*]Famed money manager's BIG-DEAL macro call... Why it won't make you any money... and what to do instead [*]Stock buyers "come out of the woodwork"... Elmerraji on how to seize the moment and the advantage [*]Gold sinks... but another central bank is backing up the truck [*]Absurdity abounds: a new spike in hay thefts... $11.5 million in gold purloined from a rusty fishing boat... the $50,000 "pill purse" [*]How $50,000 in taxes could have been put to better use... a late lament for the middle class... Doug Casey on "an empire in decline"... and more! [/LIST] The economy is not the stock market. "Repeat this over and over," suggests Chris Mayer by way of helping you get through this episode of The 5: "The economy is not the stock market. The economy is not the stock market. The economy is not the stock market." OK, feeling calm and centered? Here we go... "Jeremy Grantham is a hig... |
| It’s Hard Making Money in a Bull Market Posted: 05 Dec 2012 05:05 PM PST Mark J. Lundeen [EMAIL="Mlundeen2@Comcast.net"]Mlundeen2@Comcast.net[/EMAIL] 04 December 2012 For all of the Big Bad Wolf's huffing and puffing for the past few months, gold and silver are holding on. Let's look at gold and silver's step sum charts to see how the metals are currently doing. Gold looks good, not great, but good; which is good for us. It's holding above its low of November 03, as it step sum stopped going down two weeks ago. It goes without saying that I would like to see gold do what it did in 2011 (see below), where it soared from 1325 to 1888 in only six months. But that isn't what's happening right now; right now gold is holding its own in a tough market – which is very good. Silver, like gold, looks good too. Looking at the chart below, without doubt $35 silver has been a key price for the past two years. Current market sentiment (the Red Step Sum Plot) is bullish, and if the price of silver has found a short-term bottom, the market w... |
| Gold Price Lost $2 Today is Silver's Strength Signalling a Short Lived Fall? Posted: 05 Dec 2012 04:42 PM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1692.40 Change : -2.00 or -0.12% Silver Price Close Today : 32.883 Change : 0.149 or 0.46% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.467 Change : -0.295 or -0.57% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01943 Change : 0.000111 or 0.57% Platinum Price Close Today : 1581.40 Change : 1.30 or 0.08% Palladium Price Close Today : 681.10 Change : 4.85 or 0.72% S&P 500 : 1,409.28 Change : 2.23 or 0.16% Dow In GOLD$ : $159.21 Change : $ 1.21 or 0.77% Dow in GOLD oz : 7.702 Change : 0.059 or 0.77% Dow in SILVER oz : 396.39 Change : 0.72 or 0.18% Dow Industrial : 13,034.49 Change : 82.71 or 0.64% US Dollar Index : 79.83 Change : 0.153 or 0.19% The silver and GOLD PRICE charts leave me feeling uncomfortable. They appeared confused today, silver up 14.9 cents to 3288.3c while gold backed off $2 to $1,692.40. Both charts show a possible reversal pattern, but only if . . . The GOLD PRICE trades tomorrow not lower than $1,690. Gold left behind a V bottom today, but no more enthusiastic than a condemned man is about capital punishment. Gold's low came at $1,685.22, about $3 lower than yesterday, and not an encouraging sign. High reached only the $1,705 resistance ($1,706.60) but slipped quickly back. The SILVER PRICE acted stronger, but also made a new low for the move at 3251c, also with a V-bottom that finished the day above yesterday's lows. What continues to scratch the inside of my skull is why silver is holding up so much better than gold. Why? Believe it or not, that makes me suspect we haven't yet seen this move's bottom. Why? Because in corrections silver is usually weaker than gold -- smaller market, more volatile up and down. So silver holding up implies that at some point not long distant, it will break to catch up with gold's plunge. The other interpretation is that silver's strength is genuine. In that case, silver's divergence from gold implies metals have not much further to fall. No, I don't know which. Just have to wait until the market makes its mind known. Did y'all hear the news today? The Republicans and Congress are near a deal on the fiscal cliff. Whoops -- no, no, make that NOT near a deal on the fiscal cliff. Wait, wait, make that a fiscal-cliff crazed Tennessee moneychanger appeared in Washington, DC and pushed the president AND congress over the fiscal cliff. Rather than thinking about goofball stuff like congress and the fiscal cliff, Susan and I went today to visit friends who run Tennessee's only Grade A goat dairy and make cheese. They built an elegant and beautiful cheese cave and now offer aged as well as fresh cheese. Trained in Germany, I am one of Tennessee's only Grade A Cheese Snobs, and refuse even to look at Kraft "cheese" or any cheese smothered by wrapping in cellophane. Their Tenasi Tomme ranks with the best cheese I have eaten anywhere in the world. We bought three big wheels, but unfortunately y'all (who by now are all salivating) can't buy it over the internet. But you can visit Bonnie Blue Farm at their website, www.bonniebluefarm.com. Wow. People who take pride in what they do, and do it well. Now that's the BIG news for the day. Although the US dollar rallied a modest 15.3 basis points (0.2%) today to 79.827, it didn't change its slouchy posture or dreadful future. More, it didn't affect other markets much. Silly stock market for more than a year has been nearly lockstepping opposite the dollar, which makes as much sense as buying a bicycle for a fish. Apparently gullible investors believe that a depreciating dollar is good for the economy. This is a proposition so cosmically stupid I hardly know where to begin refuting it. Piteeful. Yen lost more today than it gained yesterday, 0.59%, to close at 121.31c. Looks like it's being slapped back and forth between manipulators and speculators. Euro lost 0.17% to $1.3071, still dancing along that downtrend line indecisively, unable to advance or fall. RSI looks a bit past its "sell-by" date, but the MACD gives it a little more room. US$1=Y82.43=E0.7651=0.000 591 oz Au=0.030 411 oz Ag. Stocks rose today, but without changing anything. Wasted effort, burning up buying power. Dow gained 82.71 (0.64%) to 13,034.49. Look at the 5 day chart and you'll see no progress, only a double top with Monday's high (posted today) and a broadening top. Stocks started rising about 11:00 off their low, but were stopped again at 13,080. Nothing changes until stocks beat that mark. S&P500 jiggled along way behind the Dow, up 2.23 (0.16%) to 1,409.28. Today's top at 1,415 was a little lower than Monday's and Tuesday's 1,420. This also resembles a broadening top. I don't know sic 'em from come here, but this chart would not make me feel warm, comfy, and ready to take a nap. On 5 December 1848 US president (and Tennessean) James K. Polk triggered the Gold Rush of '49 by confirming that gold had been discovered in California. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.   |
| A High-End Homebuilder Looks Ahead Posted: 05 Dec 2012 04:08 PM PST
[All the government subsidies in the world will not revive the construction industry - only demand from increasing wealth will. The guest commentary below offers a vivid picture of the economic and regulatory factors weighing on homebuilders these days. The author is Wayne Siggard, who builds mansions for the super-rich. A UCLA law graduate, Wayne worked for Bechtel Financing Services and was self-employed as an investment banker doing private placements in oil and gas and alternative energy project financing. When oil hit $10/bbl in 1985, he went into the homebuilding business, turning an avocation into an occupation. His real estate operations, including land development, have primarily been in California and Utah. Wayne lived for several years in Italy and Switzerland and speaks many languages. RA]
Large estates are what I build. Nobody needs what I produce any more than they need a $70 million dollar Van Gogh painting. You can spend over $1million just on a theater, or hardscape and landscape. I spend more on appliances and lighting figures than the construction cost of a 2000-square-foot tract house. To ask what a house costs to build is akin to asking how much a car costs. Are we talking Yugo, Kia, Chevy, Cadillac, BMW, Rolls Royce or Bugatti?
The bottom line is this: There has been a demand for mansions and palaces since the beginning of recorded history, and there always will be. In the Roaring 20's and 1974-2005, people bought big mansions because they anticipated making a million dollar profit on a $1.5 million dollar investment. Ego and prestige have always been factors for me, along with being a fanatic about architecture. Despite going to a top law school and working for ten years as an investment banker, I was one of those fanatics and made my passion my business. But the market might be so decimated for the next ten years that it will appear virtually non-existent. Even if the land were free, you could lose your shirt building a spec house today.
For the ten years between 1985 and 2002, the cost of copper varied between 70 cents and 95 cents per pound, as opposed to today's price of around $3.50. When America was in recession, the cost of materials and labor fell. If the economy was booming, it rose. Starting in 2002, the demand from China for construction materials increased geometrically such that China currently consumes over 50% of the world's lumber, cement, copper, steel, drywall, and other building materials. Construction costs are divided approximately 50/50 between materials and labor. Much of what China imports comes from Canada, the U.S., along with South America, Australia and Africa. China's material costs are the same as what we pay in America plus the cost of transportation. If Chinese labor were free, they would have about a 40% edge in construction costs. The material market is now international and dominated by China, not the U.S.; more on this later.
Ten Million Underwater
Single-family housing starts fell from 1,715,800 in 2005 to 108,900 in 2009, and rose to 430,000 in 2011. According to Forbes magazine, as of August of 2012 there were ten million homeowners underwater and 1.5 million in shadow inventory. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are ten million empty houses, not including seasonal (vacation) homes. Fannie and Freddie funneled large blocks of REO houses to insider investors. Large blocks of REOs are mysteriously being sold to the same groups of investors by real estate brokers who handle REOs for the banks. These houses are then flipped for a profit. The current lack of inventory is causing s mini-frenzy among house buyers. But these are lower end houses. Anecdotally, there is one lot in Rancho Santa Fe which is for sale for $695,000 which was listed for sale at $2,500,000 in 2006. Five-acre lots in La Cresta which sold for $650,000 in 2006 are selling for under $100,000. Houses in these areas are selling for 40% of their 2006 value. If the land were free, a completed 5,000-square-foot house would cost twice what an REO is selling for.
There are several government programs which affect the affordability of constructing new houses. The government decided to throw money at housing because you cannot export those jobs. The Home Affordability Modification Program subsidizes banks for reducing the principal amount owed on houses. This subsidizes those who were profligate in their purchases and made bad decisions. So what is your neighbor who is upside down and making payments likely to do? Quit paying the mortgage. What is the responsible person who paid a large down payment or paid cash for a house going to do? He's going to subsidize the fool, but most of those fools have lost their houses even after a modification.
OSHA Obstacles
The Fed is giving the banks 0% money. Mortgage rates are the lowest they have ever been. This encourages the purchase of existing houses and new construction, but it can't continue. The only reason large public home builders can take advantage of this is because they purchased developed lots at 20% of development costs (i.e., land was free) during the recession. But the number of new house sales is still less than 25% of the peak. They have gotten "cheap" down to a science and have enormous efficiencies, such as production line-type methods in labor and bulk material purchases.
After Arizona Gov. Janice Brewer wagged her finger at President Obama, hundreds of OSHA inspectors were sent from the Northeast to Arizona. Builders now had to scaffold any wall over six feet high. Every single-story building needed complete scaffolding for stucco. The scaffold was actually in the way. Anyone ascending a ladder needed someone else to steady it. Labor costs rose 15%. Beware the government.
FHA gives loans with minimal down payments. This encourages home purchases, but increases the likelihood of foreclosure. It subsidizes one industry at the expense of others. It creates false demand, and yet new construction is still moribund. CEQA and NEPA create enormous costs and time delays (time is also money for) for environmental reports. In the last six years, the federal government has paid environmental groups $4.6 billion in legal fees to sue ourselves. When the existing completed lots are exhausted, the price of completed lots will quintuple, and there will be time frame when they will not be available.
China's Bubble
China's consumption has increased demand manyfold. It has built a system of bullet trains which don't produce enough income to pay operating costs, let alone the billions of yuan interest on the bonds. They have created cities with over a million residential units which are 10-15% occupied. Their buildings decay at incredible rates and collapse in earthquakes because of shoddy materials and building practices. There are enough see-through buildings to satisfy demand for 20 years. Nobody and no country can expand at 11% compounded for twenty years without paying the price. Carlo Ponzi's scheme lasted a year. Madoff's scheme lasted almost 30 years. The USSR lasted almost 60 years. When will China's bubble burst? Who knows? When it does, materials should decrease about 50%. Construction labor has decreased up to 50% in the last 3 years. At that point, buyers will be paying about a 10-20% premium for a custom home as opposed to a tract house. And I may be able to quit practicing law, which produces nothing, and drains productive capital from the system, and go back to my passion. I'm sure you all need a house like the ones I design and build – if the feds and California Prop. 30 don't suck you dry.
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| BBC's 'Panorama' killed report exposing silver market manipulation Posted: 05 Dec 2012 03:35 PM PST 5:30p ET Wednesday, December 5, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Ned Naylor-Leyland, investment director of Cheviot Asset Management in London, interviewed by Max Keiser on yesterday's edition of "The Keiser Report" on the Russia Today television network, revealed that the British Broadcasting Corp.'s investigative journalism TV program, "Panorama," killed a report exposing silver market manipulation even after doing substantial interviews that provided evidence of manipulation. Naylor-Leyland added that the failure of the mainstream news media to confront and expose it is what most sustains market manipulation. Naylor-Leyland's segment of yesterday's "Keiser Report" begins at 12:37 here: http://maxkeiser.com/2012/12/04/kr375-keiser-report-tinas-big-black-hole... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Opinion Around the World Is Changing When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ... http://www.gata.org/node/11765 When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ... http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold... When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ... World opinion is changing in favor of gold. How can you learn why and what it will mean to you? Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard." Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him." To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit: http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold Longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy have brought their many years of experience in the precious metals and numismatic coins to All Pro Gold as metals brokers who specialize in the delivery of gold and silver bullion bars and coins as well as numismatic gold and silver coins. Fred and Tim follow these markets closely and are assisted by a team of consultants in monitoring market trends. All Pro Gold offers GATA supporters competitive pricing on all bullion products and welcomes inquiries. Tim can be reached at 602-299-2585 and Tim@allprogold.com, Fred at 602-799-8378 and Fred@allprogold.com. Ask about their ratio strategy and the relationship of generic $20 dollar gold pieces to 1-ounce gold bullion coins. Visit their Internet site at http://www.allprogold.com/. |
| Silver Liberation Army Wants Sales Tax Exemption For Precious Metals Posted: 05 Dec 2012 03:05 PM PST "It seemed to me to be discouraging investment in precious metals," Schickel said. "For people making investments of these kinds, we want Kentucky to be a friendly place to live." State Sen. John Schickel, R-Union, pre-filed a bill for the … Continue reading |
| Embry to speak in Vancouver and join Bishop at GATA reception Posted: 05 Dec 2012 02:55 PM PST 4:51p ET Wednesday, December 5, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist, John Embry, has joined the speaker roster for Cambridge House's Vancouver Resource Investment Conference January 20 and 21, 2013, and will attend GATA's fundraising cocktail reception at the conclusion of the conference, at which Bob Bishop, former editor of Gold Mining Stock Report, will come out of retirement to speak. Other GATA-friendly speakers at the conference will include Al Korelin of the Korelin Economics Report, Peter Grandich of The Grandich Letter, David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com, David Franklin of Sprott Asset Management, Tom Calandra of The Calandra Report, Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors, newsletter writer Jay Taylor, GoldSeek.com's Peter Spina, and Ron Hera of Hera Research. Representing GATA and speaking at the conference will be Chairman Bill Murphy, Board of Directors member Ed Steer, and your secretary/treasurer. GATA's fundraising reception will be held in the Cypress Room at the Pan Pacific hotel (a block from the Vancouver Convention Centre West, where the conference is being held) from 5 to 7:30 p.m. on Monday, January 21. There will be free snacks and a cash bar. There will be no admission charge but those who attend should feel free to fill your secretary/treasurer's pockets with depreciating fiat currency notes or bank checks drawn on the same. We'll know how to give them value, as by undertaking new freedom-of-information lawsuits against the U.S. Federal Reserve, Federal Open Market Committee, Treasury Department, and State Department: http://www.gata.org/node/11606 Admission to the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference itself is free for those who register in advance, and the conference has arranged discount rates for attendees at two beautiful hotels next to the convention center, the aforementioned Pan Pacific and the Fairmont Waterfront. The conference's Internet site is here: http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer... So please join us, Bob Bishop, and John Embry in Vancouver in January and help us keep our organization going -- and secretive, market-rigging central banking on the run. CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT GoldMoney adds Toronto vaulting option In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, GoldMoney customers now can store their gold and silver in a high-security vault operated by Brink's in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. GoldMoney also has recently partnered with Rhenus Freight Logistics to offer another gold storage option in Switzerland. The Rhenus vault is in the secured zone of Zurich Airport and offers customers superb security as well as the ability to inspect their gold. Storage at the new vaults in Canada and Switzerland is available at GoldMoney's lowest fees. Customers can select their storage location when placing their buy order. GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults. It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| Goldman's 'gold is dead' call is perfect contrarian indicator, Ron Rosen says Posted: 05 Dec 2012 02:36 PM PST 4:31p ET Wednesday, December 5, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Financial letter writer Ron Rosen today tells King World News that Goldman Sachs' call for the end to the gold bull market is a perfect contrarian indicator. Rosen compares recent gold charts with charts from the gold bull market of the 1970s and sees great similarities. An excerpt from Rosen's interview is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/12/5_Ro... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold Longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy have brought their many years of experience in the precious metals and numismatic coins to All Pro Gold as metals brokers who specialize in the delivery of gold and silver bullion bars and coins as well as numismatic gold and silver coins. Fred and Tim follow these markets closely and are assisted by a team of consultants in monitoring market trends. All Pro Gold offers GATA supporters competitive pricing on all bullion products and welcomes inquiries. Tim can be reached at 602-299-2585 and Tim@allprogold.com, Fred at 602-799-8378 and Fred@allprogold.com. Ask about their ratio strategy and the relationship of generic $20 dollar gold pieces to 1-ounce gold bullion coins. Visit their Internet site at http://www.allprogold.com/. Join GATA here: Vancouver Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Opinion Around the World Is Changing When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ... http://www.gata.org/node/11765 When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ... http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold... When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ... World opinion is changing in favor of gold. How can you learn why and what it will mean to you? Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard." Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him." To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit: http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard |
| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Slightly Lower Posted: 05 Dec 2012 02:14 PM PST Gold climbed $9.88 to $1706.58 in Asia before it fell all the way back to $1684.75 at about 11AM EST, but it then bounced back higher in the next hour of trade and ended with a loss of just 0.18%. Silver rose to $33.24 before it slipped back to $32.51, but it then rallied back higher midday and ended with a loss of just 0.33%. |
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Take Five, Dave Posted: 05 Dec 2012 02:06 PM PST  This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Why did the Signatories of the Central Bank Gold Agreement Stop Selling Gold & Keep the Rest? Posted: 05 Dec 2012 02:00 PM PST In 2009 the signatories of the Central Bank gold Agreement effectively stopped selling gold. This was just after signing the third Central Bank Gold Agreement which lasts until September 26th 2014. Why? |
| Pent-Up Potential for Precious Metals in 2013: Jason Hamlin Posted: 05 Dec 2012 01:53 PM PST TGR: Jason, you recently told your Gold Stock Bull readers that you had sold some equities. What were your reasons for selling? Jason Hamlin: At the time, we were nearly fully allocated and decided to move to a position of roughly 20% cash. Even though this is a high seasonal period for precious metals, we sold a couple of underperformers to take advantage of any potential year-end selloff driven by concerns about the fiscal cliff and its impact on economic growth. There are also year-end opportunities for tax-loss selling and we want to have some dry powder for bargains that may materialize over the next few months in quality resource stocks. TGR: Do you believe investors should reduce risk and take a more conservative approach until we know what are the repercussions of the fiscal cliff? JH: I do not. It is sensible to always have some cash available for a selloff, but I do not view the fiscal cliff as some Armageddon-type event like other analysts. I think the politicians will co... |
| Posted: 05 Dec 2012 01:50 PM PST Men stumble over the truth from time to time, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing happened. –Winston Churchill Jim Sinclair's Commentary I promised you that the manipulators would shift to the long side of gold before the final parabolic move. I imagine that Goldman has a huge buy Continue reading In The News Today |
| Posted: 05 Dec 2012 01:47 PM PST Jim, Many are using logic, not their emotions, just like you have been telling us. CIGA Luis Ahlborn Sequeira Selling Gold On Goldman's Call? Take A Page From George Costanza And Do The Opposite Gold has had a lackluster year despite some pretty favorable conditions, and on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs called the end of Continue reading Jim's Mailbox |
| David Morgan–Riding The Silver Channel To Huge Profits 5.Nov.12 Posted: 05 Dec 2012 01:27 PM PST www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com presents We finally caught up with our old friend David Morgan. He's upbeat about the price of silver and believes that the powers cannot keep the price down for much longer. After all, if they had complete control over precious metals prices, gold would still be at $250 and silver at $4. The shot in the arm may come after the Fed's December 12 meeting where QE something or other is introduced or it may come after the election, but make no mistake, silver and gold are due for a breakout. You may not be able to buy at the bottom, but you certainly can buy close to it. Go to www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com for the latest info on the economy and precious metals markets  This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Jeff Wilson–It’s All About Continuing Your Real Education 5.Dec.12 Posted: 05 Dec 2012 01:22 PM PST www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com presents Jeff Wilson has hit the nail on the head, education is doing a woefully inadequate job in modern America, especially in light of the drastic economic changes that have occurred since the financial collapse of 2008-09. Many of the skills being taught in K-12 and the college campuses across the nation are useless in helping young people develop satisfying and profitable occupations and careers. Jeff's has written three books to address this problem and he's going on the road to get his message across and it can't come soon enough! Go to www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com for the latest info on the economy and precious metals markets  This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Posted: 05 Dec 2012 01:12 PM PST A reader recently passed along some fascinating material providing a detailed review of the Weimar Hyperinflation experienced by Germany in the 1920's, along with some astute analysis of those events in order to give readers a clear picture of this economic catastrophe. The purpose of this piece, however, is not to review that article; so those interested in further enlightenment will have to obtain it on their own. What my own reading of that analysis provided was both some interesting surprises, along with reinforcement of several of my own economic premises. Among the most important of these is the illusory nature of "change." The Weimer Hyperinflation provides us with a classic illustration of that concept. Viewed from nearly a century in the future, our assumption is that this "episode" was characterized by a consistent progression: either the parabolic explosion in prices (and collapse in the value of currency) which we are taught defines hyperinflation, or (at the least) some steady-but-dramatic linear progression. In fact Germany's hyperinflation did not unfold like that at all. Rather, there were dramatic ebbs and surges, including intervals of weeks at a time where the Reichsmark actually rose in value versus other currencies. Imagine the difficulty in trying to convince the Average German that their currency was "being destroyed by hyperinflation" when they saw it rising in value for weeks at a time. Hyperinflation, what hyperinflation? Undoubtedly, these Average Germans told themselves that if there were any hyperinflation event that they would "see it coming." They were wrong. With the modern citizens of our (collectively doomed) Western economies, their folly is two-fold. First they suffer from the same self-delusion of the German people: that they would/will see any economic catastrophe coming; or (at worst) recognize the event as it is happening. This alone is a potentially terminal lapse of judgment. Secondly, these Sheep have been deceived by the statistical lies of our duplicitous governments. The poster-child for this deceit is the U.S. government. For nearly four years a Cast of Liars (from government, media, and the banking community) have assured Americans that they have been enjoying an "economic recovery." Meanwhile, in the real world; the percentage of employed Americans continues to relentlessly decline, while retail sales in this "consumer economy" are collapsing. The economy of the world's Great Energy Glutton is so anemic that the U.S. is now a "net energy exporter"; due to plummeting demand within its own (energy-intensive) economy. If those reality-checks are not enough to rouse Americans from their propaganda-induced stupor, perhaps one final question will accomplish this. How could a "four-year recovery" take the U.S. directly to an economic Cliff? By definition, any "recovery" should be taking the U.S. economy away from any kind of economic cliff; since any honest characterization of an "economic recovery" directly and necessarily implies that the economy is healing. The Fiscal Cliff which the Corporate Media is trumpeting with as much hysteria as they can muster is proof (by itself) that there never was any U.S. economic recovery. |
There was a time in America when virtually anyone that wanted a job could go out and get one and the United States boasted the largest and most prosperous middle class in the history of the world. Sadly, those days are long gone. Back in 1969, 
On December 4th, 2012 at 47 minutes and 13.1 seconds after midnight, 2,035 February Gold Futures contracts GCG3 took the market down $10 as fast as the exchange could execute the order. This invisible hand that decided that that was the perfect time to execute a trade for over 200,000 ounces and $345mm notional of gold is exposed in oh-so-visible a manner by 
As election euphoria settles and the "fiscal cliff" approaches, what are the implications for the dollar? Even as federal deficits may be unsustainable, stocks and bonds are up, and while the dollar may have resumed its long-term downward trend, the greenback has hardly fallen off a cliff. We look at how different tax policies might affect the U.S. dollar.
Gold fell against the yen over the last week, as we approached the top of a larger consolidation range. The ¥145,000 level is acting as a barrier again, and as a result the pullback wasn't too surprising. However, there are a few signs that we are ready to break out and up.
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