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Thursday, December 13, 2012

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Technical Trades of the Week – SPX, Dollar, Nat Gas

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 12:03 PM PST

Yesterday's price action was very bearish yet again and we are patiently waiting for a counter trend pullback to happen. While there are some good looking plays out there I really do not want to get long until the market clears the air with a bout or three of strong...

The Gold Bubble: Why It Just Won't Burst

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 11:55 AM PST

ByEdward Moseley:

There has been a lot of focus on the price of gold recently. Some say it is expensive, or that it is time to sell. Charts have been constructed that pit gold against the Consumer Price Index in an attempt to disprove the market's perception of gold as the greatest hedge against inflation. For several years there has even been talk of a gold bubble. This leaves one to wonder why market leaders like Morgan Stanley claim gold to be the best commodity going into 2013.

While comparing the CPI to certain commodities it is important to note that inflation does not affect all prices uniformly; and by the time the price structure has adjusted to inflation, prices have all been affected in different magnitudes. It is fruitless to ask how a commodity such as gold or silver will trade against the CPI, which is simply an


Complete Story »

Bullish Reaction, Bearish Response From Markets After QE 6.5% Announcement

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 11:43 AM PST

By Danny Furman:

Gold was down 1% in overseas trading after a classic head-fake on news yesterday from the Fed. Monthly asset purchases will increase to an expected $85 billion and rates will not be raised until unemployment is reported below 6.5%, or in other words a hell of a long time from now. Gold mining stocks (GDX) surged yesterday, which to me implies massive speculation based on the announcement. Investors should all be aware that both gold (GLD) and the S&P 500 (SPY) are essentially flat since QE3 was announced just three months ago. Market action yesterday, highlighted by a massive buying surge in both stocks and precious metals followed by steady selling to close at the day's lows, is overwhelmingly bearish. Gold has since fallen below $1700/oz.

Markets may be starting to realize that easing measures pursued by the Fed have not stimulated overall economic activity effectively or sufficiently. In


Complete Story »

Buy Today's Selloff In Silver

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 11:37 AM PST

ByChristopher F. Davis:

Gold and silver have pulled back significantly from their recent highs hit on October 4th this year, after spiking significantly following global central bank actions in August and September, and today's silver selloff is a buying opportunity. Today traders are taking profits as the fear of a capital gains tax hike as a result of the fiscal cliff negotiations stalling in Washington. The precious metals-- particularly silver and the stocks in the sector-- are taking a beating today. At the time of this writing, the most popular gold and silver ETFs, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) are trading lower. GLD is down 1.0% and the SLV is getting crushed, down 3.3% today and dropping further as I write. The ETFs that track the miners of these metals such as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and the


Complete Story »

Xstrata Copper Backs Off Philippine Project

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 11:23 AM PST

By Bob Johnson:

This article follows two related articles,

A Sea Change In Mining: 1 Stock To Buy, 1 To Hold And 2 To Sell

Country Risk: $1 Trillion Of Mineral Resources At Stake In Philippines

Xstrata Scrubs Tampakan Mine for Present

In a press release from General Santos City in the Southern Philippine Island of Mindanao, Xstrata Copper (XSRAY.PK) has put a hold on its planned $5.6 billion development at Tampakan. Construction is delayed from 2013 to at least 2015 and production from the mine cannot start earlier than 2019.

There have been a number of problems since Xstrata started its work in the area 10 years ago. Security issues include trespass, shootings and unruly demonstrations; this limits field activities in the project area. The largest problem, however, is political. There is uncertainty regarding provincial regulations. South Cotabato passed regulations that are more restrictive than national policy.

Presidential Order


Complete Story »

SPY Soars As U.S. Borrowed 51.6¢ Of Every Dollar Spent In November 2012

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 10:52 AM PST

By Kirk Lindstrom:

In my February 2011 article "How to Play Expected Inflation from the TIPS Spread" I wrote I was long SPY, as one way to benefit from expected inflation.

"I also believe it is a good time to own equities including SPY, the exchange traded fund for the S&P500, for both inflation protection and income."

As long as the US government spends more than it takes in and the Federal Reserve continues with its policy of buying the debt from the government at very low rates, I believe this relationship will hold true. Yesterday (12/12/12), Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said,

"Against a macroeconomic backdrop that includes both high unemployment and subdued inflation, the FOMC will maintain its highly accommodative policy. Today the Committee took several steps. First, it decided to continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), initiated at the September meeting, at a pace


Complete Story »

Bullion in an Uncertain World

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 10:11 AM PST

In a volatile, high-risk, volatile world prudence calls for managing against a range of risks by looking at how assets inter-relate, rather than searching for the one or two assets that might perform best in a more certain and low-risk world.

The Daily Nugget – Gold unimpressed by Fed

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 09:58 AM PST

Buy Gold Bullion

Gold price below $1,700? But the Fed have just doubled QE, isn't gold supposed to go up?

Not anymore, as I wrote in our gold investment news on Tuesday – gold almost appears bored by the Fed. Expectations of the Fed's money printing schemes had already been taken into account by markets, and of course concerns that this round of QE could be 'limited' (inflation) are making investors cautious. It seems markets wanted unlimited QE as we saw announced previously.

We are, obviously, also coming to year end. Many are looking to liquidate and square up their positions before the Christmas break. All of these factors are clearly short-term. In the long-term these moves by the Fed are clearly good news for gold. Physical gold investment demand appears to be holding steady, however the price cannot hold against those investors looking to sell and quickly book profits.

As we said above the Fed have linked this round of money printing to employment, saying these rates will remain low until unemployment is back below 6.5% – which they do not see happening until 2015.

Following the announcement gold reached a two week high of $1,723.01 an ounce before dropping to $1,693.80. Analysts believe the yellow metal will remain a narrow range until the end of the year (assuming we don't see similar trading action we did around last Christmas) given the time of year and US budget talks causing many to be cautious and look for liquidity.

The Fed's statement that it is prepared to risk higher inflation in order to sort out those pesky unemployment figures suggests targets could be moved to anywhere they fancy, if not 3% why not 3% or 5%? Whilst this would be bullish for gold we must also remember that for as long as QE remains in play and maintains low interest rates, this will supress rates across the yield curve meaning zero-yielding gold will look more attractive to investors.

Silver fared slightly worse, falling by more than 2 per cent. Unlike gold, it is down on the year.

Yesterday really did separate the men from the boys – those who see gold as a hedge against Fed announcements and those who invest in gold bullion for the long-term, regardless of announcements and other chatter. However yesterday's markets understood the implications and results of QE – the fact remains that central banks cannot permanently shield society from the effects of over-spending and living out of their means.

Perhaps those selling gold yesterday were only reading the seven reports mentioned in this Reuters article. Clyde Russell has studied 7 reports 'which included among others articles from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Barclays and ANZ Banking Group, five didn't contain the words China and India.' If people writing, and reading, these reports are not aware of the driving force these two nations have on the gold market then no wonder they are looking to sell gold.

According to Russell the reports focussed heavily on QE and the potential for more in the coming year. They are ignoring the major role central bank buying has played on the market and the increase in ETF holdings this year.

Yesterday, soon-to-be Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney suggested central banks turn away from the rule-book and try some new tactics on getting us out of this slump. Whilst he insists he was speaking only with Canada in mind, his calls for abandoning inflation targets will set some minds going here in the UK.

If you enjoy the Daily Nugget and would like to keep in touch with our original commentary and research, why not follow us on Twitter or you could subscribe to our Gold Investment news RSS feed.

Please Note: Information published here is provided to aid your thinking and investment decisions, not lead them. You should independently decide the best place for your money, and any investment decision you make is done so at your own risk. Data included here within may already be out of date.

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About the Author

Jan SkoylesJan Skoyles is Head of Research at The Real Asset Company, a platform for secure and efficient gold investment. Jan first became interested in precious metals and sound money when she met Ned Naylor-Leyland whilst working alongside him in the summer of 2010. Jan then went on to write her undergraduate dissertation on the use of precious metals in the monetary system. After graduating from Aston University Jan joined The Real Asset Co research desk. Her work and views are now featured on a range of sites including Kitco, GATA, lewrockwell.com and The Telegraph. She has appeared on news channels including Russia Today to discuss the gold price and gold investing. You can keep up with Jan's commentary by subscribing to our RSS feed Gold Investment News.View all posts by Jan Skoyles →

Gold & Silver Fall Hard from 2-Week High as New Fed Easing Spooks Traders

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 09:51 AM PST

GOLD and silver fell hard overnight and early Thursday in London, dropping as European stock markets also fell and the US Dollar rose despite yesterday's latest "easy money" policy from the Federal Reserve.

Holding its key interest rate in the record low range of 0% to 0.25% for the 48th month running, the Fed's open market committee swapped its guidance for any rise in interest rates from mid-2015 to a target unemployment rate of 6.5% or below.

The Fed also confirmed it will begin a new round of quantitative easing in January, spending $45 billion per month to buy US government debt with no limit on the program's total purchases.

"Any QE should be positive for the yellow metal," said one wholesale gold dealer before Wednesday's announcement.

Yet after jumping $10 an ounce to a 2-week high of $1723 on the news, the Gold Price then fell back, dropping through $1700 at the start of Asian trade.

"What is behind this weakness?" asks Dubai-based gold dealer INTL FCStone.

"We suspect that with the Fed now on a prolonged easy stance, the lack of progress coming out of Washington with respect to the fiscal cliff talks [regarding $600bn of scheduled US spending cuts and tax hikes] is causing increasing concern.

"We would rather watch things from the sidelines for the time being, as the markets are getting too choppy to trade."

More than 60% of the new, open-ended QE program will be spent on medium and long-term US Treasury bonds, the New York Fed said yesterday.

Yet longer-dated US bonds fell early Thursday, pushing the interest rates they offer to investors higher.

The US Dollar meantime reversed an overnight drop versus the Euro and British Pound, helping the gold price in those currencies recover a little from 1-week lows.

Silver fell to $32.79 on Thursday morning, down $1.00 per ounce from Wednesday's 2-week high.

"We remain gold bulls," says Swiss investment and bullion bank UBS in a new commodities review today.

"Ongoing uncertainty around US fiscal issues, together with the view that major central banks will maintain loose monetary policies for longer, are key supports of our outlook.

"Gold's 'X-factor' is a resolution [to the fiscal cliff] that includes a lift to the debt ceiling which, in turn, increases the likelihood of ratings agency action [ie, downgrading the United States' long-term credit rating], boosting gold's popularity in 2013."

The Bank of Japan is meantime planning to allow hedge funds and other financial speculators to receive money from its quantitative easing program, according to Bloomberg, removing the current restriction on interbank lending.

Bloomberg's "insider sources" also say the BoJ wants to avoid boosting Japan's huge government debts, and so will target private-sector assets with its newly-created money instead.

"While the Yen has fallen almost 5% against the Dollar in the past month," notes the newswire, "it's still stronger than the ¥100 per Dollar that Nissan Motor Co. chief executive Carlos Ghosn said is the currency's 'neutral range'."

The Swiss National Bank remains "prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities" it said again today, creating and selling Francs on the FX market to its hold its value beneath €1.20.

Swiss banking giant UBS this week joined its rival Credit Suisse in setting its short-term interest rate for depositors below zero, charging account holders for running a positive balance.

Adrian Ash
BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold and silver vaulted in Zurich for just 0.5% in dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Gold-Confiscation Coming To India?

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 09:42 AM PST

As one of the loudest voices warning of the risks of "bullion confiscation" by our governments; it was no surprise to me to see the Corporate Media singing the virtues of bullion confiscation. What was a surprise is where this "initiative" purportedly originates: India.

Readers who follow the precious metals market are familiar with the dynamics here. Western Sheep choose to hold the bankers' fraudulent paper currencies – despite our governments openly/explicitly driving the values of those currencies to zero with their "competitive devaluation." It was this foolhardy mistake which is a major factor behind the greater-than-50% decline in the U.S. standard of living over the past 40 years.

Meanwhile the "peasants" in India (as well as many/most urban residents) do not engage in similar, suicidal behavior. They park their wealth in gold (and silver) bullion – immune to the print-and-dilute theft inherent in every fiat-currency system. It is one of the key reasons why Asian standards of living are rising, while those of the West plummet downward at the fastest rate in history.

In my own naivete, I had assumed that our predatory Western governments would target their own people for bullion confiscation, and look to steal the modest amount of savings of the shrewd minority in our societies who do hold precious metals. But apparently the bankers and Oligarchs have their sights set on a bigger prize: the largest private holdings of bullion in the world, in India.

Let's be clear that this is obviously a Western proposal, as indicated by the English-speaking "front" organization used to deliver this propaganda. What is the substance of the proposal?

Households and temples carry about 25,000 metric tons [of gold] and a successful plan to gather at least 10 percent of the gold reserves for lending to jewelers will ensure supplies for three years…

So here we see the modest goal of the Western Oligarchs: harvesting (i.e. confiscating) "at least 10 percent" of Indians' gold, and to apparently repeat this harvest every three years – since the propagandists putting forth this trial-balloon claim that a 10% harvest would only deal with the supposed "problem" faced by India for three years.

We see further evidence that the entity spewing this banker propaganda is nothing but a Western mouthpiece, as any genuine "Indian" entity would understand that proposing to plunder the gold from India's religious temples would be an absolute "non-starter" for its ¾ billion population.

Just as phony as the organization itself is the supposed "problem" which this bullion-confiscation scheme claims to address: what it calls India's "current account deficit." Here a quick definition is in order for those not conversant with this economic jargon.

A current account deficit (or surplus) represents the flow of "money" into/out of an economy. Just as nations have "trade deficits" (and surpluses), so too it is a necessary proposition of arithmetic that each year there will be some nations with net in-flows of capital, and others with net out-flows.

What is phony here is the lie behind the mythical "current account deficit" of India. As the world's largest importer of gold bullion, each year India has a large out-flow of the bankers' bogus paper currencies and a large in-flow of real money: gold. Obviously you cannot have a "current account deficit" (or surplus) in exchanging one form of money for another.

Jim Sinclair On Today's Gold Price Decline

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 08:59 AM PST

After yesterday's announcement from the US Fed to continue their bond buy program of $ 85 billion dollar per month, the gold price initially rallied but closed the day flat. Surprisingly, in the Asian market trading session, gold and silver took a dive. The idea that precious metals prices go down right after one of the the most bullish possible events, is highly suspicious (to say the least). That's the type of situation when a real expert needs to explain his opinion. Jim Sinclair commented on today's gold price action. What follows are his wise words :

Gold will trade at $3500 and above on its own merits with Eastern demand in the cash market being the engine of price.

The Fed via Goldman has capped gold in the paper market for months. They were so obvious between $1775 and $1800 that Petunia can call the strategy.

Goldman is, in all practical senses, the Exchange Stabilization Fund because ESF is only a brokerage account. There is no fund in terms of what one thinks a fund's office should look like. Read the law.

The President or US Secretary of the Treasury may appoint ANY person or entity to act on their behalf as the manager of the Exchange Stabilization Fund. The Exchange Stabilization Fund has a broad mandate that allows it to trade many things including GOLD. The USA is not the center of the Gold price in the full valuation move into 1980.

Right now the geniuses in charge of the ESF are driving gold via the paper market directly into Eastern hands. There is much speculation about the amount of Gold the USA holds and its deliverability as much gold and silver was used in the Manhattan Project and no audit has ever been carried out.

The gold price will in the not too distant future go through the cap and that will take it to full valuation above $3500. If you're speculating in gold in futures without at least 20 years of positive history and training as or under a professional you have a financial death wish.

If your reason for owning gold and silver is an exchange failure you are fundamentally challenged.

The volatility in gold and counter intuitive moves, thanks to Goldman as broker for the Exchange Stabilization fund investor, will migrate back to good gold shares with the real beef.

Jim Sinclair: Gold Does Not Need You Or Me

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 08:53 AM PST

Gold will trade at $3500 and above on its own merits with Eastern demand in the cash market being the engine of price.

The Fed via Goldman has capped gold in the paper market for months. They were so obvious between $1775 and $1800 that Petunia can call the strategy.

Goldman is, in all practical senses, the Exchange Stabilization Fund because ESF is only a brokerage account. There is no fund in terms of what one thinks a fund's office should look like. Read the law.

The President or US Secretary of the Treasury may appoint ANY person or entity to act on their behalf as the manager of the Exchange Stabilization Fund. The Exchange Stabilization Fund has a broad mandate that allows it to trade many things including GOLD. The USA is not the center of the Gold price in the full valuation move into 1980.

Right now the geniuses in charge of the ESF are driving gold via the paper market directly into Eastern hands. There is much speculation about the amount of Gold the USA holds and its deliverability as much gold and silver was used in the Manhattan Project and no audit has ever been carried out.

The gold price will in the not too distant future go through the cap and that will take it to full valuation above $3500. If you're speculating in gold in futures without at least 20 years of positive history and training as or under a professional you have a financial death wish.

If your reason for owning gold and silver is an exchange failure you are fundamentally challenged.

The volatility in gold and counter intuitive moves, thanks to Goldman as broker for the Exchange Stabilization fund investor, will migrate back to good gold shares with the real beef.

Respectfully,
Jim

Keep on reading @ jsmineset.com

Jeffrey Christian: Misunderstood

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 08:40 AM PST

When it comes to the precious metals marketplace, no one is more controversial than Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group. He is extremely bright and has an incredible grasp of the metals markets and economic history. When he's not duking it out with GATA or making predictions about the decline of gold and silver prices, he's running CPM Group, a large commodities operation in New York. Some people believe that he's the front man for the elites and others believe that he's part of the gold cartel. But as always the truth is much more complex. He makes a convincing case for why markets are behaving in very dysfunctional way, however, we take issue with his explanation of why precious metals get slammed every month around the time the Non-Farm Employment report is released. You be the judge.

More @ FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com

Kaminak Reports Maiden Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate of 3,236,000 ounces of Gold at the Coffee Project, Yukon

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 07:51 AM PST

December 13, 2012 Vancouver, B.C. – Kaminak Gold Corporation (KAM: TSX-V) today announced the maiden National Instrument 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate on the Coffee Gold Project, Yukon, Canada, of 64 million tonnes grading at 1.56 grams per tonne gold ("g/t Au") for 3,236,000 ounces of gold at a base case cut-off of 0.5g/t Au for Oxide and Transitional material and a 1g/t Au cut-off for Sulphide material.  The Company presently has C$16 million in cash and no debt and is fully funded for its planned 2013 exploration program.  Images of the block model at various cut-off grades are available on the Kaminak website at www.kaminak.com

Table 1: Coffee Gold Project NI 43-101 Inferred Mineral Resource Statement at Base Case Cut-Off, and for comparative purposes the 1g/t Au and 1.5g/t Au cut-off is also shown.

 
Gold Cut Off
(g/t Au)
Tonnage
(tonnes)
Gold Grade
(g/t Au)
Total Gold
(Ounces)

Base Case Cut Off:        
Oxide
0.5
28,078,000
1.64
1,481,000
Transitional
0.5
31,313,000
1.41
1,418,000
Sulphide
1.0
5,030,000
2.08
337,000
TOTAL Base Case Cut Off  
64,421,000
1.56
3,236,000

 
 
 
 
 
1.0g/t Au Cut Off:
 
 
 
 
Oxide
1.0
15,553,000
2.39
1,193,000
Transitional
1.0
15,936,000
2.08
1,065,000
Sulphide
1.0
5,030,000
2.08
337,000
TOTAL
 
36,519,000
2.21
2,595,000

 
 
 
 
 
1.5g/t Au Cut Off:
 
 
 
 
Oxide
1.5
9,343,000
3.16
949,000
Transitional
1.5
8,842,000
2.77
787,000
Sulphide
1.5
2,889,000
2.71
252,000
TOTAL
 
21,074,000
2.93
1,988,000

"This resource estimate represents a major milestone for Kaminak and highlights the deposit quality and ongoing exploration potential of the Coffee Gold Project," stated Rob Carpenter, Kaminak President & CEO.  "At a discovery cost of approximately $15 per ounce gold, we have advanced Coffee from initial discovery to a +3 million ounce inferred resource in a little more than 2.5 years.  The drilling strike rate and continuity of the mineralized structures at shallow depths show that our strategy and targeting technique, that is drilling gold-in-soil anomalies, is highly effective in this geological terrain.  Based on the surface footprints of currently known gold in soil anomalies, Kaminak geologists see considerable expansion potential along strike from the current resource and elsewhere on the 150,000 acre Coffee Project.  We are preparing to continue with our aggressive pace of exploration in March 2013 and, given that the initial column leach metallurgical results suggest that the oxide mineralization may be amenable to heap leach processing, plans are also being made to undertake a comprehensive metallurgical testing program and commence preliminary economic studies in 2013." 

Depth Profile of Oxide & Transitional Resources

The Company's drill strategy from 2010-2012 has been primarily to target near-surface gold mineralization to approximately 200 metres below surface, thus the maiden Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate is comprised of approximately 90% of Oxide and Transitional mineralization.  Table 2 below details the breakdown of the Oxide and Transitional resource domains by depth profile.  Approximately 55% of the Oxide and Transitional resource occurs within 100 metres below surface, and 87% occurs from 0-150 metres below surface.  For reference, 'Transitional' mineralization is defined as comprising between 5-95% sulphide/oxide material. 

Table 2: Coffee Gold Project Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate Summary of Oxide and Transitional Resources at 0.5g/t Au cut-off in 50m increments below surface


Depth
Tonnage
Gold Grade
Total Gold
(metres below surface)
(tonnes)
(grams per tonne Au)
(Ounces)

0-50
15,206,000
1.65
807,000
50-100
17,097,000
1.44
794,000
100-150
19,050,000
1.50
918,000
150-200
6,031,000
1.51
292,000
200-250
1,635,000
1.37
72,000
250-300
287,000
1.40
13,000
>300
85,000
1.06
3,000

Total
59,391,000
1.52
2,899,000

Metallurgical Gold Recovery

Previously completed metallurgical analyses comprised 72 hour bottle-roll cyanidation, carbon in leach ('CIL') and carbon in pulp ('CIP') testwork on oxide samples from Supremo and Latte, which returned gold recoveries ranging from 96.3% to 98.5% (News Release 8th March, 2011).  Remaining diamond core corresponding to these two samples was then composited and crushed to 0.5" for simulated heap leaching via column leach testwork, which returned 90.4% recovery over 80 days and included 83.2% recovery over the first fifteen days of leaching (News Release 2nd April, 2012). 

Three additional samples were submitted to Inspectorate Exploration & Mining Services Ltd. in October 2012, for cyanide leach testwork, including 72 hour bottle-roll cyanidation, CIL and CIP to the same parameters as the previous testwork.  Samples were selected from Double Double, Supremo and Latte.  Gold recovery results are detailed below inTable 3.  The Double Double sample which returned gold recoveries of 96.0% to 96.9% was taken from drill core at depths of 30 to 100 metres below surface comprising 95% or greater oxidized material.  The Supremo sample which returned gold recoveries of 90.7% to 92.4% was taken from drill core intercepts in the T3 mineralized structure from depths of approximately 180 to 200 metres below surface and contains 5-10% sulphide material; therefore, it is classified as Deep Oxide / Transitional. 

The Latte sample, which demonstrated poor gold recoveries from sulphide material, was taken from drill core at a depth of greater than 300 metres below surface.  Due to the poor gold recovery, the sample is currently undergoing diagnostic leach testwork to determine the mineralogical association of gold.  Given that the Latte sample was taken from a single drill hole, work is also underway to provide an indication of whether the style of mineralization sampled is limited spatially or is typical of Sulphide mineralization at Coffee.  Further testwork will then be determined to assess possible processing options for gold recovery from this type of mineralization. 

Table 3: Coffee Gold Project Metallurgical Testwork

Zone
Classification
Laboratory Method
Gold Recovery %
PREVIOUS TESTWORK RESULTS:
Supremo
Oxide
Bottle Roll
96.3
CIL
96.6
CIP
96.7
Latte
Oxide
Bottle Roll
97.9
CIL
98.5
CIP
97.4
Supremo/Latte Composite
Oxide
0.5" Column Leach
90.4
NEW TESTWORK RESULTS:
Supremo
Transitional / Deep Oxide*
Bottle Roll
92.4
CIL
90.7
CIP
91.5
Double Double
Oxide
Bottle Roll
96.9
CIL
96.0
CIP
96.5
Latte
Sulphide
(Fresh)
Cyanidation (bottle roll)
4.4
CIL 90µ grind
2.0
CIL 35µ grind
2.8
CIL 20µ grind
5.3

* The Supremo Transitional/Deep Oxide sample is visually representative of gold mineralization at Supremo in the range of 150 to 250 metres below surface; however, it should not be considered representative of all Transitional mineralized rocks at Coffee.  It is assumed that the Transition zone recoveries will vary based on the relative proportion of oxide and sulphide material in the sample.

Coffee Gold Project Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate Model Parameters

The Coffee Gold Project maiden Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate was completed by independent Qualified Person Robert Sim, P.Geo. of SIM Geological Inc. and is reported in accordance with the guidelines of the Canadian Securities Administrators National Instrument 43-101.  The estimate is derived from 659 diamond core and reverse circulation drill holes drilled from 2010 to 2012 for a total of 130,000 metres.  The majority of the resource comprises the Latte – Supremo – Double Double deposits, which occur within close proximity to one another over an area measuring approximately 2km x 2km.  The Kona deposit lies approximately 2.5 kilometres west of Latte.  See Table 4below for a full breakdown of the Coffee Gold Project Mineral Resource Estimate by deposit, oxidation profile and at a range of cut-off grades for comparison purposes.  The base case cut-off grade is highlighted. 

The base case cut-off grade of 0.5 g/t Au for Oxide and Transitional zones was determined based on assumptions that these are amenable to open pit mining methods and lower-cost extraction of the contained gold through heap leaching.  The 1.0 g/t Au base case cut-off limit for Sulphide zone resources is based on assumptions that this type of material will require underground mining methods and higher processing costs. 

Table 4: Coffee Gold Project Inferred Mineral Resources by Zone. Base case cut-off is highlighted. 

Zone
Oxide
Transition
Sulphide
Cut-off Grade
(g/t Au)
Tonnage
(tonnes)
Gold Grade
(g/t Au)
Total Gold
(Ounces)
Tonnage
(tonnes)
Gold Grade
(g/t Au)
Total Gold
(Ounces)
Tonnage
(tonnes)
Gold Grade
(g/t Au)
Total Gold
(Ounces)
Supremo
0.4
22,884,000
1.46
1,071,000
19,644,000
1.19
749,000
1,948,000
1.28
80,000
0.5
19,860,000
1.61
1,027,000
16,545,000
1.32
704,000
1,660,000
1.43
76,000
0.8
13,432,000
2.07
896,000
10,241,000
1.75
576,000
1,007,000
1.95
63,000
1.0
10,648,000
2.38
816,000
7,774,000
2.02
505,000
828,000
2.18
58,000
1.5
6,426,000
3.15
650,000
4,111,000
2.74
362,000
515,000
2.76
46,000
Latte
0.4
6,655,000
1.39
296,000
12,589,000
1.37
555,000
7,824,000
1.35
339,000
0.5
6,054,000
1.48
288,000
11,328,000
1.48
537,000
6,885,000
1.47
326,000
0.8
4,390,000
1.80
254,000
8,034,000
1.82
469,000
4,753,000
1.85
282,000
1.0
3,501,000
2.02
228,000
6,364,000
2.06
421,000
3,771,000
2.09
254,000
1.5
1,939,000
2.66
166,000
3,641,000
2.68
313,000
2,159,000
2.73
190,000
Double Double
0.4
1,337,000
2.84
122,000
2,262,000
1.71
124,000
367,000
1.39
16,000
0.5
1,175,000
3.16
120,000
1,966,000
1.90
120,000
311,000
1.55
16,000
0.8
928,000
3.84
115,000
1,371,000
2.45
108,000
  219,000
1.94
 14,000
1.0
839,000
4.15
112,000
  1,111,000
2.81
  100,000
 188,000
2.11
  13,000
1.5
634,000
5.09
104,000
714,000
3.70
85,000
127,000
2.53
 10,000
Kona
0.4
1,119,000
1.36
49,000
1,688,000
1.11
60,000
747,000
0.94
23,000
0.5
989,000
1.48
47,000
1,473,000
1.20
  57,000
605,000
1.06
  21,000
0.8
689,000
1.85
41,000
930,000
1.54
 46,000
  354,000
1.36
15,000
1.0
565,000
2.06
37,000
687,000
1.76
39,000
 244,000
1.57
 12,000
1.5
344,000
2.61
 29,000
375,000
2.22

Federal Reserve Ups Money Printing For 2013

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 07:38 AM PST

The US economy will now tolerate higher levels of inflation than previously expected. Hard assets like oil, gold and silver are the classic hedges against such inflation and will gain as investors reallocate their money to protect it against the coming inflation.

Quelle Surprise! OCC Confirms that Big Banks are Badly Managed, Lack Adequate Risk Management Controls

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 07:30 AM PST

American Banker has an article up that is astonishing in that it tells us that the main regulator of national banks, the OCC, has confirmed one of our ongoing complaints: that the controls at the biggest banks are inexcusably weak. The OCC is the last place you'd expect to hear this from; historically it's been a major enabler of banks playing fast and loose with the rules. And the implication is that bank execs should be wearing orange jumpsuits rather than getting multi-million pay packages.

Recall that this blog has inveighed repeatedly that the officialdom had a clear and easy path to prosecuting bank executives by using Sarbanes Oxley. From a 2011 post:

Contrary to prevailing propaganda, there is a fairly straightforward case that could be launched against the CEOs and CFOs of pretty much every US bank with major trading operations. I'll call them "dealer banks" or "Wall Street firms" to distinguish them from very big but largely traditional commercial banks like US Bank.

Since Sarbanes Oxley became law in 2002, Sections 302, 404, and 906 of that act have required these executives to establish and maintain adequate systems of internal control within their companies. In addition, they must regularly test such controls to see that they are adequate and report their findings to shareholders (through SEC reports on Form 10-Q and 10-K) and their independent accountants. "Knowingly" making false section 906 certifications is subject to fines of up to $1 million and imprisonment of up to ten years; "willful" violators face fines of up to $5 million and jail time of up to 20 years.

The responsible officers must certify that, among other things, they:

(A) are responsible for establishing and maintaining internal controls;
(B) have designed such internal controls to ensure that material information relating to the issuer and its consolidated subsidiaries is made known to such officers by others within those entities, particularly during the period in which the periodic reports are being prepared;
(C) have evaluated the effectiveness of the issuer's internal controls as of a date within 90 days prior to the report; and
(D) have presented in the report their conclusions about the effectiveness of their internal controls based on their evaluation as of that date;

These officers must also have disclosed to the issuer's auditors and the audit committee of the board of directors (or persons fulfilling the equivalent function):

(A) all significant deficiencies in the design or operation of internal controls which could adversely affect the issuer's ability to record, process, summarize, and report financial
data and have identified for the issuer's auditors any material weaknesses in internal controls; and
(B) any fraud, whether or not material, that involves management or other employees who have a significant role in the issuer's internal controls

The premise of this requirement was to give assurance to investors as to (i) the integrity of the company's financial reports and (ii) there were no big risks that the company was taking that it had not disclosed to investors.

This section puts those signing the certifications, which is at a minimum the CEO and the CFO, on the hook for both the adequacy of internal controls around financial reporting (to be precise) and the accuracy of reporting to public investors about them. Internal controls for a bank with major trading operations would include financial reporting and risk management.

It's almost certain that you can't have an adequate system of internal controls if you all of a sudden drop multi-billion dollar loss bombs on investors out of nowhere. Banks are not supposed to gamble with depositors' and investors' money like an out-of-luck punter at a racetrack. It's pretty clear many of the banks who went to the wall or had to be bailed out because they were too big to fail, and I'll toss AIG in here as well, had no idea they were betting the farm every day with the risks they were taking.

With that in mind, get a load of the opening paragraphs of the American Banker story:
Think corporate governance at the largest banks is weak? You're right, but you probably have no idea just how right you are.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency recently graded the 19 largest national banks on five factors designed to gauge how well they are being run.

The results are startling.

Not a single bank met the OCC's requirements for internal auditing, risk management or succession planning. Only two of the 19 banks met the regulator's requirements for defining the company's appetite for risk-taking and communicating it across the company. Only two banks were judged to have boards of directors willing to stand up to their CEOs.

You might not fathom how damning that is. If the top brass ins't doing an adequate job of making sure the books are kept properly and overseeing risk, what the hell are they doing? There's absolutely no justification for super duper pay packages in light of this finding. It confirms what critics have long charged: that banking has become an exercise in looting, as defined by George Akerlof and Paul Romer: lever up on the basis of government support (which allows you to persist in reckless behavior far longer than normal businesses could) in order to pay the insiders more than they deserve. They keep the leverage and extraction game going until the odds catch up with the enterprise and it collapses.

These internal audit and risk management failures indicate probable Sarbanes Oxley violations. We've already flagged that issue with JP Morgan's London Whale trade, but media, not surprisingly, has refused to buck the Cult of Jamie Dimon. And it's pathetic that the OCC takes note of this issue now, a full four+ years after the crisis. Remember, in the wake of the crisis, banks have had the opportunity to remedy deficiencies, both for their own sake and as a result of more regulatory oversight. Yet after a period when it would be reasonable to expect that some improvements had been made, they still fall short. But why should they if they can get away with it? Their boards are complicit and I'm sure they remain confident that they'll be bailed out, regulatory fulminating to the contrary (and remember, big financial firm CEOs believe they'll be salvaged even in the face of official statements otherwise. Recall how Dick Fuld still can't fathom why Lehman wasn't rescued).

Admittedly, the OCC contends that this change is the result of completely redoing their large bank supervision model:

After the 2008 crisis, [agency veteran Mike} Brosnan and his colleagues at the OCC did some serious soul searching and concluded that the same mistakes that have bedeviled banks for decades did them in again: lousy loan underwriting, overleveraging, rapid growth and asset concentrations. Brosnan also faults the regulators, including himself, for missing the obvious.

"We don't have anything to hide behind. This is all fundamental stuff," he says. "Let's not kid ourselves. We got beat the old-fashioned way."

Determined not to get beat again, Brosnan's mission is nothing if not bold. He wants to restore the industry's — and the OCC's — reputation.

"I want the banking system to be valued again and to be recognized that it is a key component to growth," he says. "Also, the supervision of the large banks has to be trusted again."

To do that he's turned the large-bank supervision model inside out. Rather than putting the primary focus on credit, liquidity, interest rate and price risk, Brosnan has the OCC's large-bank examiners targeting operational, compliance, strategic and reputation risks.

What I find interesting is that this tougher posture was implemented after the OCC got a new director, Thomas Curry, that has been perceived to be more tough minded that the bank shill that served as the OCC's head, former acting director John Walsh. One of Curry's first acts was to get rid of the OCC's horrorshow of a general counsel, Julie Williams. The odds are high that the fact that the new bank supervision model got implemented without being seriously watered down is due to Curry's leadership. It would be a remarkable and welcome change if the OCC starts taking its regulatory duties seriously.

Andy Hoffman: The Day Our Currency Died

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 07:15 AM PST

Andy Hoffman of Miles Franklin joins SGT to discuss the FED's actions on 12.12.12. The fate of every American has now been sealed with QE4, future hyperinflation of the Dollar is a guarantee and Andy says, "It's going to be a very ugly world."

from sgtbull07:
PART 1

PART 2

~TVR

SilverFuturist: More silver jewelry than coins sold

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 07:13 AM PST

The silver jewelry market is still bigger than the coins/medals silver market:
About 2/3rds of the physical silver that people buy to keep is not in bullion form.
Until 2008, there was more physical silver sold in silverware than coins/medals.

from silverfuturist:

~TVR

Silver: Premiums Soar, Shortages Loom

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 07:06 AM PST

SILVER PREIMUMS SOAR – SHORTAGES LOOM
AS THE FAKE MANIPULATED ECONOMY GOES DOWN THE TOILET.

from scrapgolduniversity:

~TVR

Andy Duncan: Sword of Marathon

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 07:03 AM PST

Dominic Frisby interviews Andy Duncan (alias Jack England), the author of Sword of Marathon. They talk about Andy's motivation to write the book, the story plot and his decision to self-publish.

from goldmoneynews:

Sword of Marathon is a libertarian action adventure novel set in Ancient Greece. Andy's idea was to communicate libertarian and Austrian thought through the means of a novel as well as illustrating the historical scenery and early problems with Greek democracy.

The book also talks about the banking system at the time of the Persian invention of what would now be considered a cheque. It also touches on gold and silver's role as money, and the real story behind the marathon walk.

They also discuss Andy's usage of the alias Jack England, and his decision to self-publish the book. The Kindle edition is already available for less than one pound/dollar/euro and Andy promises that this money will be wisely spent.

This podcast was recorded on 6 December 2012.

~TVR

The Law of Diminishing Returns

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 06:49 AM PST

click to enlarge

In a presentation from the always thorough Jeff Gundlach, the slide posted at right, "S&P 500 peak performances during each Fed action," stood out.

The equity boosting effect of stimulus has grown smaller and smaller with each pass. This, my friends, is what we call "the law of diminishing returns."

As we wrote in the December 13th Live Feed pre-open commentary (posted 8:27 am New York time):

S&P futures are down slightly this morning, but the heavy action is in gold, down more than $22 per ounce (129 basis points), and silver (down 91 cents or 270 basis points).

Why would gold and silver be down sharply after the Federal Reserve apparently fulfilled bulls' wishes for bold action and "QE4?" Perhaps because a world in which interest rates are held at zero, even as austerity increases and the wealthy cut back spending, is a deflationary and gloomy one.

Bulls want to say, "Hooray, the Fed is providing more stimulus!" But the more logical interpretation is, "Wow, things are so bleak that this is what we've come to, even as taxes are set to rise (and government programs to be cut) no matter what happens?"

We see a significant possibility that the recent runup was almost entirely hype and hope-based… second and third level game theory in which long only money managers calculated that other managers would be buying as a result of Fed stimulus, so it was safe for them to buy too, creating a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy / virtuous circle. But the trouble with these mutually self-reinforcing cycles of belief is what happens when the drunks stop propping each other up.

 A significant policy shift by the Fed is the implementation of the "Evans Rule," after Chicago Fed governor Charles Evans, in which rates are directly tied to joblessness. For the first time, interest rates are to remain near zero until unemployment levels fall below 6.5 percent. 

The questions on our minds are as follows:

  • How long before markets realize the Fed is out of amunition and out of ideas?
  • How long before it's apparent the Fed has no direct ability to impact employment at all?

In August we wrote about "The Magical World of Charles Evans" — the Fed governor who has just gotten his way — to wonder, loudly, why anyone is taking this foolhardy experiment seriously. ('Tis an experiment so devoid of objective analysis, in fact, that any scientist worth his salt would angrily deny the logic of calling it an "experiment" at all. More like a political exercise in wishful thinking.)

In a world where corporations are slashing costs with abandon, domiciling tens of billions in profits offshore, and generally finding any means they can to "maximize shareholder value" by taking it out of workers' hides, it isn't at all clear that unemployment can be nudged down by the Fed.

There is significant likelihood, in fact, that America's unemployment woes are structural as much as cyclical — relating to long-term trends in globalization, demographic shifts, and corporate fat trimming that were running alongside the global financial crisis and mostly camouflaged by it.

click to enlarge

This is potentially bad news for gold (plus risk assets in general)… if the US economy fails to gain traction even as central banks throw everything but the kitchen sink at it, then what is to get us out of this funk?

And if monetary velocity is set to fall, not rise, in 2013, as a result of reverse wealth effect (taxes rising, government spending cuts) and stimulus diminishing, why should gold benefit?

The "inflation vs deflation" debate has never been properly settled. Gold bugs continue to make a table-pounding case that the US government is insolvent – an assertion that is logistically laughable – and further that, at some point, a monetary tsunami is going to be unleashed as a result of the Fed's reckless juicing. Maybe someday, as far as the second assertion goes… but not today. The alternative outlook, and one significantly negative for gold, is the potential for renewed deflationary concern as all these "pushing on a string" efforts come to naught.

Under the deflationary scenario, when investors see that the emperor (Fed) has no clothes — in terms of ability to spur economic growth — and further that corporate profit margins are dangerously exposed to stimulus withdrawal, the current stage of recovery gets interpreted as a painful stretch of road in which risk assets are aggressively sold off and the USD rises.

The deflation-tinged "risk off" scenario has been fought and fought by those who have a direct stake in denying ("suppressing?") reality – the professional optimists who constantly seek out any and every reason to be long stocks. They would be wise to remember the words of Bernard Baruch (though they never will of course):

Bulls always have been more popular than bears in this country because optimism is so strong a part of our heritage. Still, over-optimism is capable of doing more damage than pessimism since caution tends to be thrown aside.

We are heavily net short post-Fed, in anticipation of a sentiment top and an imminent return to reality-based assessment of the risk asset outlook moving forward… for more details on our exact positioning, including risk points, sizing, and trade management in real time, check out the Mercenary Live Feed.

p.s. Like this article? For more, visit our Knowledge Center!

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Gold miners under pressure as investors start to vent anger at rising costs and diminishing profits

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 05:20 AM PST

Back at the start of August we published the words of Nick Holland, head of South African mine Gold Fields Ltd. He was raising concerns that the price of gold would have to rise significantly...

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Gold & Silver Fall Hard from Two-Week High

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 05:16 AM PST

Gold and silver fell hard overnight and early Thursday in London, dropping as European stock markets also fell and the US dollar rose despite yesterday's latest "easy money" policy from the Federal Reserve.

Gold Falls on Fed’s QE4 & ZIRP Tied to Unemployment

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 04:51 AM PST

Gold fell nearly 1% in illiquid markets in Asia overnight. Some traders may have decided to take profits on the short term long the FOMC announcement trade. Gold bullion prices had already run up to $1,723 in the two weeks prior to the policy statement.

Links 12/13/12

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 03:55 AM PST

Yves here. From one set of woes to another. Verizon went down (long shaggy dog story here about Verizon tech support adding insult to injury which I will spare you) but I can work (not very comfortably) in my building's lobby. Lambert graciously did the overwhelming majority of today's links.

* * *

New Zealand SPCA teaches rescue dogs how to drive a Mini Autoblog (YY)

Arizona woman's creative holiday sign gets humorous point across using far less juice Daily News. Click through for meta. It b-u-r-n-n-s!

'Jedi' religion most popular alternative faith Daily Telegraph

Head of new U.S.-backed Syrian coalition endorses al Qaida-linked rebel faction McClatchy. And why not?

EU seals deal on banks watchdog AFP

Cosmetic, Can-Kicking Banking Union Agreement in Play DARECONOMICS

Low expectations ahead of EU summit Deutche Welle

Deutsche Bank offices raided amid tax evasion inquiry Guardian. It can't happen here.

Police raid Deutsche HQ in tax probe FT. "Carousel fraud."

Deutsche Bank watchdog dismisses false accounting claims – sources Reuters

Thomson Reuters seeks to run new Libor FT

European Central Bank says it has 'much to learn' from Latam robust financial systems MercoPress (Aquifer)

Catalan parties agree referendum on independence within two years El Pais

Extended Interview: Critics slam continued secrecy of Trans-Pacific Partnership, talks underway in New Zealand Free Speech Radio News (stuartbramhall). Audio. 3:17: "[C]ountries shall [emphasis added] conform their domestic laws, regulations and administrative procedures to the attached agreeements."

The Fed Turns Aggressively Dovish With 'Evans Rule' Businessweek

Fed's bond buying will continue until jobless rates drops McClatchy

"Right to Work" Isn't a Civil Right. But Unionizing Should Be The New Republic

New MSM Trillion Dollar Coin Wave Misses the Big Story: Hayes and Carney New Economic Perspectives (also).

Is the new boom in domestic natural gas production an economic bonanza or environmental disaster? Phys.org. Good discussion.

Work on Keystone XL Halts in Texas over "Wrong Type of Oil" Claim OilPrice

New Report Could Effect Huge Change in the Pipeline Industry OilPrice

Enbridge Pipeline Faces Scallop-Farmers Fight Bloomberg

There is so much data stored in the world that we may run out of ways to quantify it Daily Mail

Data scientists take byte out of Mad Men FT

Nuchem Rosenberg, Rabbi Who Exposes Child Sex Abuse In Orthodox Community, Attacked With Chemical Huffington Post. Note police comment at end. Domestic fights are of interest, but apparently inter-sect ones don't count. 

Scotland Yard investigating allegations senior politicians abused children in the 1980s and used 'connections' to escape justice Independent

The Fungus in Your Cheese Is Having Weird Sex Smithsonian

Stone Age people were making cheese over 7,000 years ago Independent 

Book review: Antifragile Nick Dunbar (RS). Deft work with that stiletto, Mr. Dunbar.

Bad faith and Zero Dark Thirty  L'Hôte (BLCKDGRD)

Hatership VS Black Leadership in the Age of Obama Black Agenda Report

The Silent Treatment: A Day in the Life of a Student in 'No Excuses' Land EduShyster. Compliance training.

Antidote du jour (YesMaybe):

Gold demand increases 15pc

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 03:35 AM PST

As the gold price increases, demand for gold and other precious metals has continued to grow.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Dubai to post record $335bn non-oil trade for 2012 up 13 per cent on 2011

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 03:32 AM PST

With non-oil foreign trade figures for the first ten months of the year up 13 per cent, Dubai is on track to post a record $335 billion total for 2012, another economic indicator showing the strength of the recovery in the emirate.

Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum said Dubai was 'surpassing the repercussions of the world financial crisis. The $335 billion estimate includes direct trade, Dubai's many free zones and warehouse custom trade.

Trade boom

Trade in the first ten months of 2012 exceeded the total value of trade for the whole of the previous year. India remains the top trading partner for Dubai at $34.6 billion followed closely by China and Switzerland.

The US came fourth with $16 billion and Turkey was fifth with $11.5 billion. Gold was the largest single export category and worth $30.8 billion and then telcommunications equipment, diamonds and cars at $11.5 billion, $10.4 billion and $7 billion respectively.

Perhaps the upturn in non-oil trade is not so surprising given that 2012 will also be a record year for oil revenues in the GCC. Dubai is the regional trading hub and benefits directly when its neighbours have more money to spend.

Neil Barofsky: Too Big to Jail – Our Banking System’s Latest Disgrace

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 03:18 AM PST

By Neil Barofsky, former Special Inspector General for the Troubled Assets Relief Program, currently a senior fellow at the NYU School of Law and the author of Bailout. Cross posted from The New Republic with author permission

You can be forgiven if you watched the Department of Justice's announcement yesterday of a $1.92 billion settlement with HSBC with a sense of disappointment–and déjà vu. The event checked all the boxes in a theatrical routine that has become all too familiar.

Descriptions of breathtaking misconduct involving the facilitation of massive drug trafficking and transactions with rogue terror-sponsoring nations? Check.

Broad boasts about the "historic" nature of the settlement that will certainly end the type of criminal misconduct alleged? Check.

Mea culpas from the offending institution with promises that it has really learned its lesson this time and will never ever engage in dastardly conduct again? Yep, that too.

Nothing, however, was quite as it appeared. Sure, HSBC paid a record fine, but there was something vitally important missing from yesterday's press conference: actual criminal charges for obvious criminal conduct.

Some perspective: HSBC sent more than $800 million in bulk cash from Mexico to the United States, a good chunk of which apparently represented proceeds from some of the most notorious Colombian drug cartels. As someone who tried the first narcotics money laundering case involving extradition from Colombia, let me assure you that this is a lot of money, the discovery of which usually generates vigorous prosecutions and lengthy prison sentences. And it wasn't HSBC's only dirty business: There were also hundreds of millions of more dollars of illegally disguised transactions with rogue nations such as Iran and Sudan.

Why no criminal charges? Why instead only some remedial measures and a "historical" fine that can be measured in weeks — not years — of earnings? It certainly wasn't for lack of evidence. No, instead the government determined that HSBC is not only too big to fail, but also too big to jail. As the New York Times first reported, even though there were strong voices within DOJ pushing for criminal charges, the big banks' best friends within the government (the Treasury Department, of course, and other unnamed regulators) were too fearful that an indictment could destabilize the global financial system. Yes, it's 2008 all over again. In the name of systemic stability, a megabank again escapes accountability for its actions, rescued by compliant officials.

In some aspects, DOJ's surrender is understandable. Notwithstanding regulatory reform efforts in the U.S. and the UK, the largest banks are in many ways even more systemically dangerous today than when we bailed them out in 2008. This indirect acknowledgment that we have failed to fix the too-big-to-fail problem has potentially dire consequences.

One of the reasons why we have a criminal justice system, of course, is to deter criminal behavior. If you know that you will be punished for putting your hand in the cash register at your local supermarket (or illegally stripping out information from a monetary transaction that identifies the source nation as Iran), you are less likely to do so. But if the government offered a blanket waiver from criminal accountability for a certain group — let's say all left-handed people over six feet tall or a handful of banks deemed so large and so significant that their indictment could destroy the global financial system — we would expect that those exempted would no longer be deterred from committing criminal acts. And although lefty giants may otherwise lack a predisposition for boosting cash, in recent years the largest banks have demonstrated an unbridled zeal for pushing the boundaries of the law as part of their relentless pursuit of profits. DOJ's actions with regards to HSBC are beyond unfair: They are downright terrifying for weakening the general deterrence for megabanks, both foreign and domestic, which could rationally interpret yesterday's actions as a license to steal.

The enduring presumption of bailouts in our banking system already drives the largest banks to take on too much risk with too little disclosure and too much leverage, a toxic cocktail that will inevitably lead to another financial crisis. Yesterday's action now spikes the punch with a new toxin, confirmation that criminal penalties are off the table, leaving a worst-case scenario of a fine totaling far less than even a single quarter's earnings. Given the potential profits of criminal behavior and the unlikelihood of personal consequences for the executives directing it, the message is clear: Crime pays. This will inevitably lead to more reckless risk-taking that will further undermine systemic stability and lead to an even greater financial meltdown down the road.

There is, of course, a solution for our emerging two-tier system of justice. The largest banks need to be broken up, the only realistic way to truly end both too big to fail and too big to jail. But since our government has demonstrated a reluctance to do so, perhaps the next time a megabank presents HSBC's argument that it should not be criminally charged because it would destabilize the financial system, instead of capitulating to this threat, DOJ should require at a bare minimum that in return for allowing the bank to survive, it must break itself up, ensuring that it could never hold the justice system hostage again. Otherwise, we can look forward to many more press conferences that are long on drama but short on impact.

Gold price slips back to $1700 as Glen Stevens from the RBA says the eventually interest rates will surely rise

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 02:37 AM PST

After getting as high as $1721 yesterday (a two week high) the gold price has fallen back to around $1700. There was no obvious news release to explain the take down, it just looks like the shorts...

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Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky: For Gold Market Rigging, Look East Too

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 02:27 AM PST

Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Well, it was pretty much the same, old same old on Wednesday as it was on Monday and Tuesday...down in early Far East trading...rallying once lunch time was over in Hong Kong...with a not-for-profit seller then showing up between the noon London silver fix and the Comex open in New York.

This time the gold price was allowed to rise until around the London p.m. fix at 10:00 a.m. in New York.  Gold then got sold down about ten bucks by 10:45 Eastern.  Then at 12:30 the price attempted to rally strongly, only to get hammered flat by a not-for-profit seller beginning just minutes before 1:00 p.m. in New York...and by the 5:15 p.m. close of electronic trading..."da boyz" had the gold price back to almost unchanged from Tuesday.

The high price tick of the day that came just minutes before 1:00 p.m. was quoted at $1,724.80 spot over at Kitco.

Gold closed at $1,711.60 spot...up $1.20 on the day.  Volume was pretty decent at around 166,000 contracts net...and I'd guess that JPMorgan Chase et al did what they had to do to kill the price on the heels of the news from the FOMC meeting.  If you think that the noon rally in gold might have been short covering, you obviously haven't been reading this column long enough to know better.

It was pretty much the same story in silver, except the big rally around 12:30 Eastern time looked more like a NASA space launch...and JPMorgan et al really had to work overtime to put that fire out.  The high tick in silver was $33.92 spot...so silver had another intraday move of over a buck.

By the close, JPMorgan Chase had peeled 47 cents off the high of the day...and silver closed at $33.45 spot...up only 45 cents.  Volume was a very chunky 46,500 contracts.

The dollar index opened at 80.03...and then, like on Tuesday, hung in there until shortly after trading began in London...and then headed slowly south until around 7:30 a.m. in New York.  The tiny rally that began there, touched the 80.00 mark a couple of times...and then fell off the proverbial cliff starting at 12 o'clock noon Eastern right on the button, with the bottom [around 79.77] coming shortly before 1:00 p.m.  From that point it rallied a bit into the close...and finished the Thursday trading session at 79.89...down 14 basis points from Tuesday's close.

None of this currency action explains the price action of either gold or silver between the 10:00 a.m. Eastern time London p.m. gold fix...and the rally that began at 12:30 p.m.  If you have an explanation other than price management, I'd love to hear it.

The gold shares gapped up...and stayed up...and the HUI finished up 2.56%...but was up well over 3 percent at one point.  The price action in the stocks appeared to be quite independent of the actual price action of gold itself...as the charts for each don't even remotely resemble each other.

The silver equities had a very decent time of it as well...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up a robust 2.43%.  Nick now has his Intraday Silver 7 chart up and running...hopefully permanently...and from now on, I'll be posting it on weekdays...and both charts in Saturdays' column.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 225 gold and 169 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Friday.  And it was all the "usual suspects" as issuers and stoppers...JPMorgan Chase, Bank of Nova Scotia...and HSBC USA.  The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.

There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV...and the U.S. Mint reported that they sold 4,000 ounces of gold eagles.

Over at Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank for the period ending on December 10th...the reported that their gold ETF added 6,367 troy ounces...and their silver ETF showed a decline of 35,141 troy ounces.

It was a quiet day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday, as they reported receiving only 2,000 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 30,690 ounces out the door.  The activity isn't worth a look.

Here's a Christmas card that Nick Laird sent me late yesterday afternoon...and as you can tell, he spends way too much time in the bush.  But, having said that, I know that his holidays wishes are sincere...and I thank him on your behalf for all the great charts that have graced this column all year long.

I have the usual number of stories for a weekday...and I hope you have the time to at least skim the parts of each one that I've cut and paste below.

"Da boyz" can paint any chart picture they want...and the dumb-as-posts T.A. analysts gobble it all up.
More than half of Dutch gold is at NY Fed, finance minister says. Lars Schall: The Bundesbank and its gold -- to trade or not to trade? Porter Stansberry: Gold and Real Estate Are My Hedges for the Fiscal Cliff.

Critical Reads

Fed Ties Rates to Joblessness, With Target of 6.5%

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Fed, said Wednesday that the agency was nearing the limits of its ability to help the unemployed.

The Federal Reserve made it plain on Wednesday that job creation had become its primary focus, announcing that it planned to continue suppressing interest rates so long as the unemployment rate remained above 6.5 percent.

It was the first time the nation's central bank had publicized such a specific economic objective, underscoring the depth of its concern about the persistence of what the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, called "a waste of human and economic potential."

To help reduce unemployment, the Fed said it would also continue monthly purchases of $85 billion in Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities until job market conditions improved, extending a policy announced in September.

This must read story showed up on The New York Times website early yesterday afternoon...and it's courtesy of Roy Stephens.  The link is here.

Ben Bernanke Explains The Thinking Behind Today's Historic Fed Decision

The Federal Reserve just unveiled historic policy measures as a result of its December policy meeting.

The Fed announced QE4 as expected, but it surprised markets by adopting quantitative thresholds tying monetary policy to a 6.5 percent unemployment rate target, as long as inflation stays below 2.5 percent.

Adoption of quantitative thresholds was thought by many to be introduced sometime in 2013.

Here's another report on the same press conference.  This one was posted on the businessinsider.com Internet site yesterday afternoon...and it's also courtesy of Roy Stephens.  The link is here.

Greenspan: Fed Tactics 'Not Having Major Effect' on Economy

The Federal Reserve's stimulus measures aren't having as strong an impact on the economy these days as people think, said former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

Since the downturn, the Fed has sought to spur recovery by slashing interest rates to near zero and taken more unorthodox measures such as buying bonds like mortgage debt or Treasury holdings from banks, a stimulus tool known as quantitative easing that injects liquidity
into the economy to keep rates low and encourage investing and hiring...and critics dub quantitative easing as printing money out of thin air that will fuel inflationary pressures down the road.

Either way, the Fed's policies aren't having much of an impact, especially while banks hold off on lending out all that fresh money.

"I've not commented about Fed policy since I got out of office, but I will say this: that whatever the Fed is doing, whether you like it or not, it's not actually, in my judgment, having a major effect," Greenspan told CNBC.

Alan pretty much sums it up. But what is also apparent is that infinite money will, in time, destroy the currency and produce an inflation rate that will make your eyes glaze over.  Any other outcome is now a myth.  This story was posted on the moneynews.com Internet site on Tuesday afternoon...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sharing it with us.  The link is here.

U.S. runs $172 billion budget deficit in November

The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $172 billion in November, the Treasury Department said Wednesday, pushing the shortfall for the first two months of fiscal 2013 to $292 billion.

In November, the government spent $334 billion and took in $162 billion in revenue.

For the fiscal year to date, the deficit is up 24% compared to the first two months of fiscal 2012.

This marketwatch.com story was posted on their Internet site early yesterday afternoon...and I thank Elliot Simon for his second offering in today's column.  It's worth reading...and the link is here.

AIG 'profits' an insult to the concept: James Saft

To say taxpayers made money from their investment in AIG is to libel the very concept of profit.

Come to think of it, it may well be a gross insult to the idea of investment too.

The Treasury Department announced on Tuesday it would get $7.6 billion from the sale of its remaining government-owned shares in American International Group, taking it to what was widely reported to be a profit of $22.7 billion on the bailout.

That's $182 billion well invested, is the clear implication, though even the Treasury seems wary of calling the bailout bucks profit, using the more bureaucratic "positive return" in its press release.

You can quibble with the figures - for example that math takes no account of the value of tax breaks AIG received as part of the deal - but the real problem is with the very concept of the government investing in public financial companies which would otherwise go bust.

This most excellent commentary showed up on the Reuters website early yesterday afternoon Eastern time...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for bringing it to our attention.  It's worth skimming...and the link is here.

$822,000 Worker Shows California Leads U.S. Pay Giveaway

Nine years ago, California Democrat Gray Davis became the first U.S. governor in 82 years to be recalled by voters. The state's 20 million taxpayers still bear the cost of his four years and 10 months on the job.

Davis escalated salaries and benefits for 164,000 state workers, including a 34 percent raise for prison guards, the first of a series of steps in which he and successors saddled California with a legacy of dysfunction. Today, the state's highest-paid employees make far more than comparable workers elsewhere in almost all job and wage categories, from public safety to health care, base pay to overtime.

Payroll data compiled by Bloomberg on 1.4 million public employees in the 12 most populous states show that California has set a pattern of lax management, inefficient operations and out-of-control costs. From coast to coast, states are cutting funding for schools, public safety and the poor as they struggle with fallout left by politicians who made pay-and-pension promises that taxpayers couldn't afford.

This amazing story showed up on the Bloomberg website late Monday evening...and I thank reader Tom Germain for sending it our way.  The link is here.

Bank of England could get new growth target

The Bank of England could be given a new mission statement and instructions to do more to boost growth in the struggling British economy, under plans being pushed by ministers.

The Daily Telegraph understands that senior Government figures are privately pressing the George Osborne, Chancellor to consider giving the Bank a new target of increasing the size of the economy.

Mr Osborne is also being urged to push the Bank of England to expand its controversial Quantitative Easing programme to find new ways to inject more new money into the financial system.

Questions about the Bank's instructions from the Government were put in the public domain this week by Mark Carney, who will next year replace Sir Mervyn King as Governor.

It will soon be a world-wide money printing orgy like we have never seen before.  This story was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site late last night GMT...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for digging it up on our behalf.  The link is here.

Europe deepens union with ECB as chief bank watchdog

Europe clinched a deal on Thursday to give the European Central Bank new powers to supervise euro zone banks from 2014, embarking on the first step in a new phase of closer integration to help underpin the euro.

After more than 14 hours of talks and following months of tortuous negotiations, finance ministers from the European Union's 27 countries agreed to hand the ECB the authority to directly police at least 150 of the euro zone's biggest banks and intervene in smaller banks at the first sign of trouble.

"This is a big first step for banking union," EU Commissioner Michel Barnier told a news conference. "The ECB will play the pivotal role, there's no ambiguity about that."

This Reuters story was filed from Brussels early this morning...and it's Ulrike Marx's second offering in a row.  The link is here.

Head Office Raided in Tax Probe: Deutsche Bank CEO Under Investigation

The current investigation into Germany's biggest bank, Deutsche Bank, over suspected tax evasion has widened to include members of its management board.

The bank issued a statement on Wednesday following a police raid on its head office in Frankfurt saying prosecutors were also investigating Jürgen Fitschen, who became co-CEO this year, and Stefan Krause, the chief financial officer.

"Two of Deutsche Bank's management board members, Jürgen Fitschen and Stefan Krause, are involved in the investigations as they signed the value-added tax statement for 2009," Deutsche Bank said in a statement.

This story showed up on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and it's another article from Roy Stephens.  The link is here.

A Cold Heart for Europe: Merkel's Dispassionate Approach to the Euro Crisis

Chancellor Merkel has more power in Europe than any of her postwar predecessors. Yet there is little passion in her relationship with the EU, preferring instead a strategy of what can only be described as pedagogical imperialism. She sees the bloc primarily in terms of euros and cents -- and worries that it is rapidly losing relevance.

She currently holds the fate of Europe in her hands. If the euro is rescued, Merkel will get most of the credit, and if it falls apart, she will be forced to shoulder the blame. No other German chancellor has

Porter Stansberry: Gold and Real Estate Are My Hedges for the Fiscal Cliff

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 02:27 AM PST

With nary a glimmer of hope that economic sense will supplant political expedience, Stansberry & Associates Investment Research Founder Porter Stansberry expects rampant inflation to roar in once the cost of capital rises. How is he preparing himself? Stansberry tells The Gold Report he continues to buy and hold gold and also discusses how real estate can cushion against the fiscal cliff.

This interview was posted over at theaureport.com Internet site yesterday...and it's recommended reading.  The link is here.

Levy on gold could be budget windfall, U.S. lawmakers say

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 02:27 AM PST

Revising a 19th-century U.S. law that governs the mining of gold and other precious metals could add billions of dollars to federal coffers at a time of tight budgets, according to some Democratic lawmakers and a government study released on Wednesday.

Taxpayers receive no royalties on metals pulled from federal land, and officials drew a blank when they tried to find out how much gold, silver, copper and other valuable metal is sold.

But applying a metals levy of 12.5 percent - the benchmark government share for other resources - could deliver hundreds of millions of dollars a year to taxpayers, according to independent studies and U.S. Representative Raul Grijalva, who sought the report and other data from the mining industry.

read more

RMPM to enroll 10,000 jewellers, distributors for My Gold Plan

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 02:27 AM PST

Reliance Money Precious Metal (RMPM), part of Anil Ambani-led Reliance Capital Limited, today said it is targeting enrolling over 10,000 jewellers and distributors across the country for its recently-launched My Gold Plan.

"We are aiming to aggressively increase our distribution and fulfilment reach across India for our gold accumulation plan by enrolling around 10,000 jewellers and distributors within the current financial year," Reliance Money Precious Metals Business Head-Gold Rishit Sanghvi said.

At present, RMPM has over 2,000 approved distributors and jewellers across the country.

read more

Three King World News Blogs

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 02:27 AM PST

The first is this must read commentary by GATA's secretary treasurer Chris Powell...and it's headlined "Holy Grail" Gold Evidence Panics Western Central Banks".  The second blog is with Keith Barron...and it's entitled "All of My Bags Were Searched and They Were Looking For Money".  The last blog is with Dr.

read more

Gold: 'Monetary Collapse Insurance'

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 01:05 AM PST

Although the price of gold has fallen over the last couple of months, there has been a marked increase in demand for physical bullion. The amount of bullion held to back gold exchange-traded funds has risen to record levels.

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