Wednesday, August 10, 2016



First Majestic Silver Corp. 2016 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Slides

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 01:07 PM PDT

Orwell’s “1984” is HERE

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 01:01 PM PDT

In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act… 1 oz Silver Vote Trump As Low As $2.69 Over Spot! Submitted by Dave Kranzler, IRD: You know, I wondered for 30 years how people could get behind the Hitlers and Caligulas of the world. The last two years have answered that question […]

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A Crisis of Intervention

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 01:00 PM PDT

For those that already have, Mark Carney is the gift that keeps on giving.  For the asset-rich, for the 1%, for property speculators, and for zombie companies and banks, Carney is your man. For the asset poor, or for savers, or pensioners, or insurance companies, or pension funds, the Bank of England has morphed from being […]

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Lilly's Abemaciclib Fights For Silver Medal

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 12:56 PM PDT

Portfolio Management Rules Regarding Selling

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 11:52 AM PDT

In this brief report we cover five reasons to sell a position and how to sell positions during a bull market. This is in part how we run the model portfolio. We hope this will be helpful to everyone.


1. Sell if you have a 20% loss

We always abide by a rule to sell positions that become a 20% loss. It obviously works much better in a bear market (as stocks trend lower and lower) but it is important to keep in mind. A 20% loss on a 5% position limits the portfolio to a 1% loss on a single position.

That being said, a bull market will usually bail you out of a bad entry point. If you bought (removed) close to the high then you are probably down over 20%. Time and the bull market will likely bail you out.

However, if you are going to chase stocks that are already overbought and somewhat parabolic then it is best to use a tighter mental stop loss. Say 10% instead of 20%.

Ultimately, we should ask ourselves if something "could" go down 20% in the near term. If the answer is yes then it is probably best to wait for a better entry point. Wait for that stock to correct or consolidate and look to buy something else.


2. Sell if the stock closes below its 400-day or 80-week moving average

This is a technical reason and it probably won't be an issue for the sector anytime soon. Nevertheless it is something to definitely keep in mind for mining stocks and all assets and markets.


3. Sell if the fundamentals change
This seems straight-forward but it also includes selling if our perception of the fundamentals changes.

Recent examples of that include our decision to sell (removed) and sell half of (removed). We noted the intel we received about (removed) project possibly having issues as well as the poor performance of the stock. The stock has (removed) but we don't feel bad about selling the stock. The potential issues with (removed) could come to light at somepoint.

The same can be said regarding the (removed). Maybe there won't be any issues for either company but nevertheless it was clear to us that there were potential fundamental risks for both companies. I will note that sometimes it can take a few quarters or even a few years for some of these risks to come to fruition.

(Removed) could be a pending example. They still have many more (removed) to report but (removed). Another (removed) would give us a fundamental reason to abandon the stock. Of course the sale price would likely be lower in that scenario.


4. Sell if you find a better opportunity

Consider replacing laggards with stocks that are better values or opportunities. For example, right now, there are better opportunities in the junior exploration companies that have sub $40 Million market caps. We've covered a few of them over the past month.

Also, if my anticipation is correct, we could have a broad-based sector correction after Gold hits $1500-$1550. If you missed "quality" the first time around, you would have another chance to buy it. A broad-based correction allows an opportunity to reshuffle the portfolio as the correction would create new opportunities.


5. Sell if position becomes too large or overvalued

If a position becomes too large (as part of a diversified portfolio) then consider selling part of the position to reduce its weighting in your portfolio. When (removed) it had nearly tripled in one month. The position became quite large as a percentage of the portfolio. We could have sold a fraction of it at the time. Now it's (removed).

Note that (removed) is currently (removed) of our portfolio. It is a special situation in that it is a tiny company that is fairly valued with additional upside potential. It also is a strong takeover target and that would give us a chance to exit at an even higher profit. Thus, we are holding the full position. If a takeover target seems overvalued or extended, it could be a signal of a coming takeover.
How to Sell in a Bull Market

In a bull market, as we are in, it is best to sell positions in increments. In other words, scale out of the position a handful of times over a period of several years.

Let's say I bought (removed) around (removed) and it could reach $50 in four or five years. It's trading near (removed) right now. Perhaps I will sell 25% at $8, 25% at $15 and another 25% at $25. Note that you could buy back what you sold if the stock corrects. If not and the stock continues higher then you would put that capital into something else.

Junior exploration companies move faster and are much more volatile. We can employ the same strategy but should note that we need to be a bit more active with the strategy. In other words, it might take (removed) 18 to 24 months to reach $15-$20 while a junior exploration company can triple or rise 5-fold within a single year.

If the sector makes another move higher, as we expect and Gold is moving towards $1500 and GDX towards $40 then we definitely will be looking to take some profits. We will look to cut any laggards or underperformers as well as anything that looks overvalued or has limited upside. We will also trim some of our holdings by 25%. We noted in TDG #477 that we want to maintain a 60%-70% position in the sector.


LME to Introduce Gold Products

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 11:09 AM PDT


Why Nations Fail

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 11:00 AM PDT

It’s what you do with what you’ve got…   1 oz Silver Vote Trump As Low As $2.69 Over Spot! Submitted by Adam Taggart, Peak Prosperity: Why do some nations rise while others wither? Why have some of the world’s largest empires eventually crumbled? What are the ‘best practices’ that a modern nation should follow […]

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BREAKING: Julian Assange Suggests MURDERED DNC STAFFER Seth Rich Was Wikileaks Source: “We Have To Understand How High The Stakes Are In the United States”

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 10:30 AM PDT

Though the reports were initially dismissed as conspiracy theory, perhaps the one person who could confirm that 27 yo DNC staffer Seth Rich was in fact a whistle blower may have just done so. None other than Wikileaks founder Julian Assange…   Buy Junk Silver Coins at SD Bullion As Low As $1.29/oz Over Spot!   […]

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The Coming Global Silver Production Collapse & Skyrocketing Silver Value

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 10:00 AM PDT

The global economic and financial system is in much worse shape than I originally thought. The TIME CLOCK of the collapse of the Global Financial System has sped up considerably…   Submitted by SRSRocco: The global economic and financial system is in much worse shape than I originally thought.  New data and information suggest that […]

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Posted: 10 Aug 2016 09:00 AM PDT

While some writers are claiming that silver prices are in a bubble and are about to collapse, I believe it is stocks that are about to experience a WATERFALL DECLINE, and that Silver Will SKYROCKET in August…   Submitted by Chris Vermelean: In their latest announcement, the FED attempted to prop up the stock market. […]


Gold remains hostage to small changes in the expected FFR

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 08:59 AM PDT

Speculative Investor

Time to Hold Gold is NOW! – Harvey Organ

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 08:30 AM PDT


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The Attack on the 2nd Amendment is NOT Over!

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 08:00 AM PDT

The right of a free citizenry to keep and bear arms is a right the Marxist-Statists absolutely cannot tolerate.  We have seen it all throughout history: Hitler's Germany, the Soviet Union, Cambodia…all of the totalitarian states must take the firearms from the hands of their citizens in order to make them subjects…   Teddy Roosevelt […]

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Gold and Silver SURGE Back Above $1350 and $20

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 06:34 AM PDT

Well, THAT didn’t take long…     Buy 2016 American Silver Eagle Coins After Friday’s BLS Goosing, which saw gold prices smashed towards $1320 and silver to $19.30, and with open interest at all-time highs in silver, it appeared that another cartel washout period had begun. Both metals stabilized and consolidated early this week however, and then […]

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How Will Trump, Clinton and This Contentious Election Season Impact Gold?

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 06:30 AM PDT

clinton-trumpThis election season is shaping up to be an extremely contentious one, with emotions running high, rigged primaries, pending lawsuits, threats of violence and deep-rooted hatred between supporters of Trump versus Clinton. The stock market looks like another massive bubble waiting to burst and any number of black swan events could be the needle that finally […]

Silver Price Forecast: This Suggests That Silver Will Soon Spike Significantly Higher

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 06:09 AM PDT

Silver Price Forecast 2017/2016 The silver price and the US Dollar/South African Rand exchange rate (USD/ZAR) have a very interesting relationship that goes back a long way. Basically, in the long run, the two move in opposite directions. When the USD/ZAR rate is moving up, then the silver price is moving down, and vice versa.…

Gold miner Centamin rides high after raising forecasts for the year

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 04:50 AM PDT

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Gold Stocks Versus Bullion: Inflation 101 – Stewart Thomson

Posted: 10 Aug 2016 01:00 AM PDT

In regards to gold stocks specifically, I called the 2014 – 2015 period the greatest accumulation zone for any asset in the history of markets. That was a bold statement, and the price action in 2016 is already hinting that my view may be the correct one. Silver is very responsive to inflationary pressures, and […]

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Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Posted: 09 Aug 2016 06:44 PM PDT

Bank of England having QE problems. US productivity drops for third straight quarter. Oil price stable on rumors of output cap. Stocks flat, gold and silver up on USD weakness. China trade data disappoints. US debt now has negative yield for foreign investors. Most Americans worse off today than in 2005. More good earnings reports […]

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Top Ten Videos — August 10

Posted: 09 Aug 2016 05:15 PM PDT

Four Horsemen, the documentary. Clinton Cash, the movie. John Williams on monetary dysfunction. Gold and silver from several angles.                    

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Video: Next Upside Targets for Gold, Gold Stocks

Posted: 09 Aug 2016 02:29 PM PDT

We note the next potential upside targets for both Gold and gold stocks, which are currently consolidating around or below the July highs. Miners are showing leadership which is a good sign.


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