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Friday, March 11, 2016

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Junior Gold Miners' Operating Fundamentals Were Strong Even In Gold's Dark Q4

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 01:03 PM PST

Gold Futures – Just What Exactly Are They?

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 01:00 PM PST

Here comes a crash course on futures markets, and the information we can pull from them.   Buy Gold Eagle Coins and Bars at SD Bullion Submitted by Sprott’s Thoughts:  In a recent article which explores the current pricing environment for gold, Sprott Senior Portfolio Analyst Trey Reik discusses the impact of the U.S. dollar, […]

The post Gold Futures – Just What Exactly Are They? appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Welcome To The Currency War, Part 22: China Devaluation Watch

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 12:30 PM PST

Not so long ago, a big Chinese currency devaluation seemed both inevitable and imminent. The story went like this: China had borrowed tens of trillions of dollars in response to the Great Recession and squandered much of it on uncompetitive factories and ghost cities. The companies and governments that own these worthless assets were about to about to go broke en masse.

China would, as a result, have no choice but to cut the yuan’s value by as much as 40% to make domestic debts manageable and export industries competitive. Hedge funds, led by Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass, were gearing up to bet billions on this event.

From a Bass report to his investors (via the Value Walk website):

Over the past decade, we have worked diligently to identify anomalies in financial systems, governments, and companies around the world. We have been vigorously studying China over the last year, with the view that the rapid credit expansion in the Chinese banking system will result in significant credit losses that will require the recapitalization of Chinese banks and materially pressure the Chinese currency. This outcome will have many near-term and long-term effects on countries and markets around the world. In other words, what happens in China will not stay in China.

The unwavering faith that the Chinese will somehow be able to successfully avoid anything more severe than a moderate economic slowdown by continuing to rely on the perpetual expansion of credit reminds us of the belief in 2006 that US home prices would never decline. Similar to the US banking system in its approach to the Global Financial Crisis ("GFC"), China's banking system has increasingly pursued excessive leverage, regulatory arbitrage, and irresponsible risk taking. Recently, we have had numerous discussions with various Wall Street firms, consultants, and other respected China experts, and they almost all share the view that China will pull through without a reset of its economic conditions. What we have come to realize through these discussions is that many have come to their conclusion without fully appreciating the size of the Chinese banking system and the composition of assets at individual banks. More importantly, banking system losses – which could exceed 400% of the US banking losses incurred during the subprime crisis – are starting to accelerate.

Our research suggests that China does not have the financial arsenal to continue on without restructuring many of its banks and undergoing a large devaluation of its currency. It is normal for economies and markets to experience cycles, and a near-term downturn that works to correct the current economic imbalance does not qualitatively change China's longer-term growth outlook and transition to a service economy. However, credit in China has reached its near-term limit, and the Chinese banking system will experience a loss cycle that will have profound implications for the rest of the world. What we are witnessing is the resetting of the largest macro imbalance the world has ever seen. [emphasis added]

So how did we get here? Since 2004, China's real effective exchange rate has appreciated 60%. The majority of this appreciation occurred in the last few years as the ECB and BOJ both actively targeted weaker exchange rates to stimulate Europe's and Japan's large export sectors, respectively. While the markets seem solely focused on China's exchange rate versus the US dollar, this fixation misses the point that many other manufacturing economies and currencies, including those belonging to Japan, Europe, Russia, and several Southeast Asian countries, have gained significant price advantages at China's expense. If China is to achieve the required clawback of its real effective exchange rate, the renminbi will need to devalue against a trade-weighted basket of currencies and not just the dollar. In effect, the required devaluation against the dollar will need to be multiplied to achieve the necessary result.

As the renminbi appreciated over the last decade, China undertook a massive infrastructure spending program in order to maintain politically-determined GDP growth targets in the face of these headwinds. This policy action created a system of distorted incentives (not to mention a dramatic misallocation of capital) whereby local officials were promoted to higher office by exceeding those targets without regard to the return on investment of the projects they supported. In 2005, exports and investment constituted 34% and 42% of China's GDP, respectively. By 2014, exports had fallen to 23% and investment had grown to 46%. This growth in investment was funded by rapid credit expansion in China's banking system, which grew from $3 trillion in 2006 to $34 trillion in 2015.

Today China is at a point where its banking system can no longer support such massive growth, and the strong renminbi has effectively undermined the competitiveness of China's export economy. A dramatic devaluation of the renminbi is warranted to regain export competitiveness; however, the Chinese authorities have errantly fought against this so far, spending around $1 trillion to defend their currency. The continued capital outflows and emerging need to deal with losses in the banking sector will eventually force China to change tack and allow (or enable) a devaluation that resets growth as many countries have done over the past eight years.

China: Divergence in Bank Asset Growth and GDP
China imbalance March 16

There’s much, much more in Bass’ letter, all of it pointing to an epic crisis in which the exposure of China’s fake growth numbers, historically-unprecedented levels of malinvestment and evaporating foreign exchange reserves combine to force a devaluation.

But apparently not yet:

Yuan Hits Strongest Level Against Dollar Since Early December

(Wall Street Journal) – The yuan hit its strongest level against the dollar since early December on Friday, after the Chinese central bank boosted the fixed rate to keep up with the euro's big gains overnight, analysts said.

Analysts said the move likely came as a result of a sharp rally in the euro Thursday, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi appeared to suggest that the central bank wouldn't cut interest rates further into negative territory. Mr. Draghi's comments came after the central bank delivered another rate cut and ramped up its bond-buying program.

China wants to keep its currency in line with those of top trading partners Japan and Europe, said Daniel Tenengauzer, a managing director at RBC Capital Markets. "With the euro going up after the ECB yesterday, it makes sense that the bank would raise the fix," he said.

Last year, the People's Bank of China said it would change the way it manages the yuan's value, with the exchange rate now being measured against a basket of currencies of its trading partners rather than the dollar alone. The move was seen as a demonstration of China's determination to make the yuan a global currency, with a value determined more in line with other major currencies.

So is the China devaluation thesis false or just early?

History teaches that huge imbalances seldom just evaporate. Most of the time they’re rectified through sudden, wrenching change — market crashes, recessions/depressions and, yes, devaluations.

In China’s case, the combined effects of an overvalued currency and a global slowdown have caused its exports to plunge, while supporting the yuan has forced it to burn through nearly half a trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves in the past year. Since it can’t fix the global economy, devaluation seems to be the only remaining tool in the box.

Chinese exports March 16

China forex reserves March 16

But history also teaches that imbalances can persist for a shockingly long time before causing a crisis. So add the overvalued yuan to the list of Money Bubble sub-sections that should have blown up long ago — and will certainly blow up one of these days — but for now, somehow, are still going.

Newmont Strengthened By Duketon Gold Project Sale

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 12:16 PM PST

Demand For Physical Gold & Silver Will BREAK The System – Craig Hemke

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 12:00 PM PST

Someday something will change and the confidence scheme will fail.  Every uptick in gold increases the pressure on that confidence scheme which is why the banks are fighting it so hard…in the end they are just not going to be able to… At some point the demand for physical gold/silver will break the system:   Submitted […]

The post Demand For Physical Gold & Silver Will BREAK The System – Craig Hemke appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Complete Economic Collapse Of South America Is Well Underway

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 11:00 AM PST

The 7th largest economy on the entire planet is completely imploding. Here in the United States, there are still people who doubt that an economic crisis is happening. But in Venezuela and Brazil there is no debate. Unfortunately, what is happening in Venezuela and Brazil is also slowly starting to happen to most of the […]

The post Complete Economic Collapse Of South America Is Well Underway appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Hillary Wants to Sue Gun Industry Into Oblivion, But Give Vaccine Manufactures “Absolute Immunity”

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 10:00 AM PST

"I also believe, so strongly, Gene, that giving immunity to gunmakers and sellers was a terrible mistake."   By Greg White, NewsTarget.com via SHTFPlan: Editor's Comment: It is no surprise that the system – and its shrill puppets like Hillary Clinton – have gone to all lengths to bar us from our right to bear arms, yet […]

The post Hillary Wants to Sue Gun Industry Into Oblivion, But Give Vaccine Manufactures "Absolute Immunity" appeared first on Silver Doctors.

On The Brink of Complete Meltdown

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 09:30 AM PST

We are ON THE BRINK…   Submitted by Rory Hall:  We live in a time when the rule of law has been suspended for the ruling class and banking class. When the Attorney General of the United States, Eric Holder, made the following statement he turned the "too big to fail" banks into "too big to jail". Criminal […]

The post On The Brink of Complete Meltdown appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Italian Bank Collapse Threatens To Plunge The European Financial System Into Chaos

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 09:00 AM PST

The Italian banking system is a "leaning tower" that truly could completely collapse at literally any moment. And as Italy's banks begin to go down like dominoes, it is going to set off financial panic all over Europe unlike anything we have ever seen before…    Submitted by Michael Krieger:  I wrote about the troubles […]

The post Italian Bank Collapse Threatens To Plunge The European Financial System Into Chaos appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold, Stocks and the Miners

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 08:03 AM PST

Biwii

Too Late To Jump On The Gold Bandwagon? Rick Rule Chimes In

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 08:00 AM PST

Gold prices continue to rise this year, which has some investors questioning whether or not they have missed their chance to get in on the action. According to one veteran gold investor, the 'real move' in gold is yet to come:

The post Too Late To Jump On The Gold Bandwagon? Rick Rule Chimes In appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Tooth and Nail

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 07:57 AM PST

Wow. The Forces of Darkness are fighting us for every last tick, nakedly issuing new Comex contracts at a record pace in a desperate attempt to hold gold back from new 2016 highs. Will they win again? When was the last time they lost?

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“No Signs of Recession” Says Agency That Always Fails to Predict Recession

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 07:00 AM PST

In the middle of a heated battle against my jetlag yesterday, I finally decided to exercise the nuclear option and turn on CNBC in order to stay awake. I figured someone would say something completely ridiculous, and it would get my blood boiling enough to power through the next couple of hours. Within minutes I […]

The post "No Signs of Recession" Says Agency That Always Fails to Predict Recession appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold Prices Hit 13 Month High as ECB ‘Bazooka’ Shoots Blanks

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 06:50 AM PST

Gold prices climbed to a 13-month high in dollar terms overnight ($1,282.51) after the increasingly adventurous, dare one say reckless, European Central Bank unleashed its latest 'bazooka' and initiated more interest-rate cuts, a significant extension in currency printing and bond purchases and also a potential subsidy to banks lending.   Submitted by Mark Obyrne, Goldcore: Gold […]

The post Gold Prices Hit 13 Month High as ECB 'Bazooka' Shoots Blanks appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Harvey Organ: Outside Reversal!

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 06:15 AM PST

Gold and silver SOAR after OUTSIDE REVERSAL DAY!   GOLD AND SILVER SOAR AFTER AN OUTSIDE DAY REVERSAL/GOLD RISES TO $1272.60 UP $15.60/SILVER RISES UP 19 CENTS TO $15.55/SURPRISINGLY THE OPEN INTEREST ON SILVER HARDLY CHANGED DESPITE THE HUGE RAID/TWO HUGE STORIES TO BRING TO YOUR ATTENTION: FIRST, CHINA FLOATS A STORY THAT IT MAY […]

The post Harvey Organ: Outside Reversal! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold Prices Hit 13 Month High as ECB ‘Bazooka’ Shoots Blanks

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 06:03 AM PST

gold.ie

Market Report: Gold breaks out

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 03:21 AM PST

Finance and Eco.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts -

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 12:00 AM PST

Le Cafe Américain

Near-Term Gold Forecast: The Thrill of Victory and the Agony of Indecision. . .

Posted: 11 Mar 2016 12:00 AM PST

Man-oh-man, the heat I am taking over my recent "Caution" stance on the near-term outlook for gold and silver is now verging on the theatre of the absurd, says precious metals expert Michael...

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Video: Pierre Lassonde’s $8000 Gold Target

Posted: 10 Mar 2016 03:55 PM PST

Our analysis of such is in this video…

Silver Cheapest To Gold In 7 Years – ETF Holdings Surge

Posted: 10 Mar 2016 12:04 PM PST

gold.ie

Gold Price Breakout-The Sequel

Posted: 10 Mar 2016 11:10 AM PST

Peter Schiff’s Delusional Forecast - Gold

Posted: 09 Mar 2016 01:15 AM PST

Global Economic Analysis

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