Gold World News Flash |
- William Engdahl — A Bankrupt U S & NATO What Does It Mean For Gold?
- John Butler – ‘Rally in Gold Represents the Beginning of Something Much Larger’
- Obama Setting U.S. Up For Another Housing Crash
- World’s Second Largest Reinsurer Buys Gold, Hoards Cash To Counter Negative Interest Rates
- Silver Prices Fail to make a new Higher High
- Silver Prices: 1 Factor Could Be a Game-Changer for the Silver Market
- Silver and Gold Prices Both Shot Straight Up
- China’s 7,000 Year Old Strategy Hints That A Massive Move Is Coming : “Largest Gold Rally Of Our Lifetime… It Will Go Ballistic”
- Fractal Analysis Shows Coming 70s Style Gold Stocks Rally From Even Cheaper Levels
- Junior Gold Miners Breakout As Fed Does “One and Done” on Rate Hikes
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - March Madness
- Top gold stocks to invest in 2016
- Gold and Silver Rocket Higher, Dollar Plunges, After FED Fails to Hike Rates
- Jim’s Mailbox
- The War on Cash Is Already Lost
- Ronan Manly: Venezuela's gold keeps moving to Switzerland
- The War on Cash is Real!
- Gold and Silver Vultures
- David Morgan: Silver Supply under $16 Is Limited. Serious Backlash Coming If Futures Market Breaks
- THEY LOOK LIKE PEOPLE (2016)
- SILVER INVESTMENT: Switching From A Commodity To High Quality Store Of Value
- The Antibiotic Apocalypse Explained
- Imagine how much they'd save if they NEVER went back to work
- Ronan Manly's encyclopedia of the world's gold markets
- Munich Re stashes gold and cash to counter negative rates
- Koos Jansen: China and Kazakhstan join forces in the gold market
- Fed to Announce Rate Decision – Will Janet Play Ball?
- My Response to this Hate Mail
- Paul Craig Roberts On Russia, Turkey, NATO Where It's All Heading!
- Sheikh Imran Hosein the Mysteries Force that is Turning the World Around
- World War 3 Could Start This Month 350,000 Soldiers In Saudi Arabia Stand Ready To Invade Syria
- U.S. Dollar Outlook: Peak Dollar?
- Dollar Outlook: Peak Dollar?
- A Tale of Three Worlds
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The Vultures
| William Engdahl — A Bankrupt U S & NATO What Does It Mean For Gold? Posted: 17 Mar 2016 12:30 AM PDT from JayTaylorMedia: |
| John Butler – ‘Rally in Gold Represents the Beginning of Something Much Larger’ Posted: 16 Mar 2016 09:20 PM PDT from IG MENA: John Butler, head of wealth services at Gold Money, explains the current gold trade as equity indices rally. John highlights the statistical evidence and points to a potential doubling of the gold price over a “multi-year” timeframe. |
| Obama Setting U.S. Up For Another Housing Crash Posted: 16 Mar 2016 08:40 PM PDT from Fabien4Liberty: Housing Collapse 2016. Obama Setting Us Up For Another Housing Crash. My the New York Post: We learned nothing from the last financial crisis. The housing market is set to collapse, again, and a key culprit, again, is artificial demand created by government policies. For starters, mortgage-software firm Ellie Mae reports that the average FICO credit score of an approved home loan plunged to 719 in January (the latest month for which data is available) from 731 a year earlier, and well below 2011's peak of 750. |
| World’s Second Largest Reinsurer Buys Gold, Hoards Cash To Counter Negative Interest Rates Posted: 16 Mar 2016 06:38 PM PDT The world's second-largest reinsurer, German Munich Re which is roughly twice the size of Berkshire Hathaway Re, is boosting its gold reserves and buying gold in the face of the punishing negative interest rates from the European Central Bank, it announced today. As caught by Mark O'Byrne at GoldCore and reported by Thomson Reuters this afternoon, the world's largest reinsurer is far from alone in seeking alternative investment strategies to counter the near-zero or negative interest rates that reduce the income insurers require to pay out on policies. Munich Re has held gold in its coffers for some time and recently added a cash sum in the two-digit million euros, Chief Executive Nikolaus von Bomhard told a news conference.
Nikolaus von Bomhard in Munich, on March 16, AFP via Getty Images
"We are just trying it out, but you can see how serious the situation is," von Bomhard said. The ECB last week cut its main interest rate to zero and dropped the rate on its deposit facility to -0.4 percent from -0.3 percent, increasing the amount banks are charged to deposit funds with the central bank. Munich Re is one of the largest reinsurance companies in the world - It oversees €231 billion in investments. A small 3% allocation to gold would equate to buying gold worth €8.19 billion. At the current spot price of €1,130 per ounce that would equate to 7.2 million ounces or 225.4 tonnes of gold bullion The news is interesting and we believe that other institutions will follow in their footsteps and diversify into gold in order to protect themselves from negative yields. We have not heard of any other non central bank institutions diversifying into gold but it stands to reason that a small percentage will follow in Munich Res footsteps. * * * It isn''t just gold: the German company confirms that when rates turn negative enough, physical cash will be increasingly more valuable. As Bloomberg reports, the German company will store at least 10 million euros ($11 million) in two currencies so it won't have to pay for the right to access the money at short notice, von Bomhard said at a press conference in Munich on Wednesday. "We will also observe what others are doing to avoid paying negative interest rates," he said.
"This may well become a mass phenomenon once interest rates are low enough -- the only question will be where that exact point is," said Christoph Kaserer, a professor of finance at the Technische Universitaet in Munich. "For large institutions, that may be the case sooner rather than later. The ECB will react with countermeasures, such as limiting cash." As Bloomberg adds, Munich Re's strategy, if followed by others, could undermine the ECB's policy of imposing a sub-zero deposit rate to push down market credit costs and spur lending. Cash hoarding threatens to disrupt the transmission of that policy to the real economy.
Incidentally, once the Fed's infatuation with playing central planning doctor fizzles as the economy relapses into an accelerating downward spiral, negative rates are coming to the US next, as such the real-time experiments of how to evade a repressive monetary regime such as those conducted by the Munich Re CEO will be particularly useful to those who want to protect their assets once NIRP crosses the Atlantic. |
| Silver Prices Fail to make a new Higher High Posted: 16 Mar 2016 05:57 PM PDT
The news from the Federal Reserve today served to lower the US Dollar and boost the stock market along with gold and silver prices. |
| Silver Prices: 1 Factor Could Be a Game-Changer for the Silver Market Posted: 16 Mar 2016 05:40 PM PDT by Moe Zulfiqar, Profit Confidential:
Fundamentals suggest silver prices could skyrocket. Don't buy into the rhetoric suggesting the gray precious metal isn't worth it. It is truly understandable what the mainstream is trying to say; the global economy is struggling and silver is an industrial metal. This means less demand and as a result, they are selling the precious metal. Sadly, in the midst of this, demand from investors continues to be ignored. It's soaring.
Understand this: investors could impact the silver market in a big way and send silver prices skyrocketing in very little time. Don't believe it? Then look at the evidence yourself. Despite silver prices remaining subdued, investors are rushing to buy at an astonishing pace. In the first two months of 2016, U.S. Mint sold 10.73 million ounces of silver in American Eagle coins. In the same period a year ago, it sold 8.55 million ounces of silver in American Eagle coins. (Source: U.S. Mint, last accessed March 14, 2016.) In simple words, investor demand for silver at the U.S. Mint is running 25% higher than in the previous year! Here's what you have to keep in mind: 2015 was a record year of silver sales at the U.S. Mint—it sold 47 million ounces of silver then. At the current pace, with selling 10 million ounces of silver sold in the first two months, it's on pace to sell 60 million ounces in 2016. Don't for a second think that the U.S. Mint is the only one reporting stellar silver demand figures. We see this phenomenon prevailing across the globe. Consider the Perth Mint—the biggest mint in Australia and a reputable one in the global economy. In the first two months of 2016, it sold 2.52 million ounces of silver. In the same period a year ago, this figure was only 978,076. (Source: "Perth Mint Gold and Silver Bullion Sales in February," CoinNews.net, March 10, 2016.) This represents an increase of 157.9% in silver sales at the Perth Mint year-over-year. In 2015, the Perth Mint sold 11.59 million ounces of silver—53.2% higher than 2014. |
| Silver and Gold Prices Both Shot Straight Up Posted: 16 Mar 2016 04:26 PM PDT World's largest re-insurer Munich Re announced today in Munich that it is boosting its gold and cash reserves rather than suffer punishing negative interest rates from the European Central bank. It is trying to counteract the near zero or negative interest rates that reduce income needed to pay out claims. Munich Re has already held gold for some time and lately added cash in the "two-digit million euros." Whoa. Think about that, this gigantic organization holding cash currency. And gold. Harbinger of things to come? Whoops. Central banks' traps aren't working too well, are they? TODAY'S MARKETS: The Tennessee proverb says, "He who lives by his big mouth, dies by his big mouth." From July 2014 forward the Fed has floated the US dollar on a rising cloud of gassy hot air: bluster, jawboning, threatening, yakking. Then the mountain gave birth to -- a mouse. A 1/4 point interest rate rise last December that nearabout wrecked world stock markets. That's the thing about threatening: don't work long term. Ever notice that those parents who keep on saying, "Now, Bobby, don't do that or I'm going to have to give you a whippin'" and keep on saying without ever acting have the children from hell? Little Bobby knows they're bluffing. Now the world knows that Janet Yellen & her miscreant academic trolls have been bluffing all the time. Now the dollar will die by their big mouth. Today the US dollar lost 74 basis points to end at 95.93, down 0.77%. Great job, Janet. US dollar chart makes me grimace in pain just to look at it. http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT Look at those three huge perpendicular slides (blue arrows). Those depict days where buyers withdraw their bid and sellers panic through the exit. Behold, now the dollar has come to critical 92.50 support, Nice Government Men must be sweating bullets and spitting iron filings. Of course, this doesn't hurt gold and silver at all. Currency traders must be puking in wastebaskets all over the globe, just before they run out a window or look for a new line of work. Euro rose 1.14% to $1.1235 & Yen jumped 0.6% to 88.90. Central banks sure do stabilize markets, don't they? The Fed left interest rates untouched and said it should raise rates 0.5% by the end of the year -- in other words, more of the someday, sometime, we threaten. Who knows what and why stock investors are thinking? Evidently, for the moment, until tomorrow morning's open, they took that as positive. Dow climbed to 17,325.76, up 74.23 (0.43%), its highest close this year. S&P500 rose 11.39 (0.56%) to 2,027.22. This is about as good as it gets, so 'twould be a fine time for a correction to begin. Dow in Gold rose yesterday nearly to the 50 day moving average, then fell back today. Ended at 13.72 oz (G$283.87 gold dollars). Also looks like a good time to change direction and resume the downtrend. Relatively weaker than gold, silver let the Dow in Silver nearly reach the 200 DMA on 1 March, but sank and today sank back through the 50 DMA. http://schrts.co/ohwLZP Stocks would have to stage a manic rally to take the Dow in Silver much higher, or silver would have to sink mightily. Comex closes before the FOMC announcements, so a deathly hush still reigned when they closed at 1:30 p.m. Gold lost $1.10 to $1,229.30 & silver gave back 4.1¢ to 1521.4¢. Then Old Yellen spouted off at 2:00 sharp. US dollar began to sink immediately, like a cast iron canoe full of lead washers. Silver & gold both shot straight up. Gold rose to $31.30 (2.5%) above yesterday's close and silver rose to 34¢ (2.6%) over yesterday at 1564.5¢. In the same way I wasn't too hot to proclaim a gold rally after the ECB slammed the dollar last week, so this week when the Fed slams the dollar I am not burning to announce another rally. That doesn't make me right, but it does keep me from making too many mistakes on a day when central banks, a force external to markets, stir up turmoil. If gold had closed above the last high, I would think differently, but for now I'll wait and see. Danger of a correction has not vanished, & indicators point down. Silver could easily visit its 200 DMA, not at 1494¢. Gold might drop as far as its 50 DMA, now $1,177.14. I would abandon this correction notion and do an about face on a dime if gold closed above $1,287.80 and silver closed higher than 1624¢. If I saw that I'd be buying with both hands and my toes. I have to drive over to Chattanooga tomorrow, and probably won't get home in time to send y'all a commentary. God willing, I'll send one on Friday. Tennessee is crazy: it charges sales tax on constitutional gold & silver money. I know, I've been through the wringer fighting it. After four years trying, a bill to remove the tax has finally gotten out of subcommittee to the Senate Finance, Ways & Means Committee. If you live in Tennessee, do yourself a favor and contact the members of the Senate Finance Committee, listed here http://1.usa.gov/1XvmjcO Time's a-wastin'! Bill will be heard next week. Email ONLY ONE MEMBER AT A TIME (otherwise emails are automatically deleted as spam), but you can use the same message. You can also call their offices. Here's the bill, http://1.usa.gov/1Ugb4GV Here are talking points: 1. The bill really won't cost the state anything because investors now just buy out of state and avoid the tax. Removing the tax would steer that business to Tennessee seller. 2. 32 other states have already removed the sales tax on silver & gold. Tennessee needs to stay competitive. 3. (optional) The tax is unconstitutionally applied to silver & gold money in any event. Thanks. Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. |
| Posted: 16 Mar 2016 04:10 PM PDT ShtfPlan |
| Fractal Analysis Shows Coming 70s Style Gold Stocks Rally From Even Cheaper Levels Posted: 16 Mar 2016 03:19 PM PDT Hubert Moolman |
| Junior Gold Miners Breakout As Fed Does “One and Done” on Rate Hikes Posted: 16 Mar 2016 01:53 PM PDT The junior gold miner ETF (GDXJ) broke out of a handle that was formed near its one year high around $27 after the Fed stayed put on interest rates and stated there may only be two hikes instead of four this year. This should continue to be bullish for precious metals, commodities and the junior miners.
I believe we are in a new bull market for junior miners that has followed a five year historic rout in junior resource stocks. The early stages of a new uptrend are when some of the greatest gains can be made. Looking at the chart above made by Palisade Research, the gains in juniors can be huge coming off a major bottom around 600%.
This recent pullback to the 20 Day Moving Average followed by a bullish reversal today indicates the uptrend should continue into new 52 week highs. Investors are growing concerned about the US in an election year. The Republican Primaries and the choosing of a populist outsider with no political experience shows the anger and fear of the masses who are growing increasingly concerned about the way business is run in Washington and are fearful of a coming economic crisis. The US Dollar could be in the beginning of the next down leg. The Fed is aware of the growing hostility of the public in an election year and may not want to create undue volatility with increased rate hikes. Look at the selloff caused by the only rate hike last year. The last thing the Fed wants to do is go into the next election with a full blown bear market. If blue chips and tech darlings continue to weaken look for The Fed to continue to prop up the market by even lowering the rates are announcing another quantitative easing. This could send juniors soaring even higher which they have already been doing this year. Some of our top stocks have doubled this year on huge volume. Take a look at some of the top performers I picked on the TSX Venture in 2014 and 2015 by clicking here… Look at these two gold stocks I picked in 2015 that have been real winners… The lithium battery sector is on fire as well completely diverging with the volatility of the equity markets. Check out this first class advanced lithium brine asset in Argentina and this huge high grade Graphite deposit in Alaska breaking out into new highs on huge volume. I have a whole list of stocks ready to breakout in gold, silver, lithium and graphite. If you are not yet following the top small cap performers returning huge gains on the OTCQX and/or TSX Venture now is a great time to join our premium service. Although prior results are not indicative of future performance, it may be wise for new investors to verify and observe prior track records. You can search the blog for top performers such as Niocorp, Pure Energy, Western Lithium, Integra, Red Eagle…etc to see all the articles on the companies.
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| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - March Madness Posted: 16 Mar 2016 01:53 PM PDT |
| Top gold stocks to invest in 2016 Posted: 16 Mar 2016 01:21 PM PDT Resource Investor |
| Gold and Silver Rocket Higher, Dollar Plunges, After FED Fails to Hike Rates Posted: 16 Mar 2016 01:19 PM PDT Gold Stock Bull |
| Posted: 16 Mar 2016 12:59 PM PDT Jim/Bill, Standard of living will collapse worldwide or… excessive money printing will send us into a hyperinflationary spiral. It’s a lose/lose situation. “It also advised that government-funded pensions should serve merely as a “safety net,” rather than the prime pension provider, and that corporate pensions should be “opt out” rather than “opt in” to encourage... Read more » The post Jim’s Mailbox appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset. |
| The War on Cash Is Already Lost Posted: 16 Mar 2016 12:38 PM PDT This post The War on Cash Is Already Lost appeared first on Daily Reckoning. We got a flurry of new frontline reports from the war on cash yesterday, after a reader told us his account was shut down — perhaps because his wife used it once too often to send money to family in China. "Suspicious transactions," you know… "I was at one of the 'Big Bad Wolf' banks," reads one of these emails, "to deposit some money into my son's account. "I used to deposit cash into my son's accounts for living expenses in college. The bank said that's no longer allowed. When I asked why not, they said to prevent money laundering. Mind you, I had made the same deposit consistently every month for two years. "But the most recent experience blew my mind. I was paying my credit balance at this bank with cash in an amount less than $600. The bank clerk asked to see my ID. I asked why does he need my ID when I am only making a payment with a statement in my hand? "I was told that when making payment in cash, they need to see an ID. "Has anybody else experienced such mind-boggling lunacy?" We'll share more reader emails later. For now, we want to draw upon this reader's experience to illustrate a critical point… Yes, there's the maddening surveillance-state aspect of it all. But there's also the inconvenience aspect — which might be an even more effective tool in the war on cash. How many more times will our reader put up with the ID harassment before simply doing an electronic transfer to pay the bill? Even without the ID harassment, it's just easier to transact without cash, right? Pull out a credit or debit card. Heck, just swipe your smartphone! "We are witnessing an accelerated move toward digital currencies, or the so-called cashless society," Jim Rickards writes in his latest book, The New Case for Gold. That makes it easier to enforce negative interest rates: Rather than earn a small percentage on your checking account each month (remember those days?), a small percentage would be deducted from your account. "Eliminating cash also makes it easier to force bail-ins, confiscations and account freezes," Jim writes. "To lock down depositors' money, it is helpful to herd everybody into one of a small number of megabanks (Citi, Wells Fargo, Chase, Bank of America) that take orders from the U.S. government. Then the stage is set." The template for the war on cash was created a century ago — with a war on gold, waged however subtly. After all, it's not as if G-men were going house to house in 1933 carrying out FDR's gold-confiscation order. People had already voluntarily surrendered their gold during the early decades of the 20th century. How, you ask? "Banks slowly took the coins out of circulation (the way cash is going out of circulation today), melted them down and recast them into 400-ounce bars," Jim explains. "Nobody is going to walk around with a 400-ounce bar in her pocket. "Then they said to people, in effect, 'OK. You can own gold, but it's not going to be in the form of coins anymore. It's going to be in the form of these bars. By the way, these bars are very expensive.' That means you needed a lot of money to have even one bar, and you weren't going to take it anywhere. You were going to leave it in a bank vault." And just as with the war on cash today, Americans were lured down the garden path with the promise of convenience. Why lug around those $5, $10 and $20 gold coins when you had those handy paper "gold certificates"? "Ironically," Jim writes, "the solution to the war on cash is to go back to gold, because gold is now legal again." Heck, it's been legal for 42 years now — longer than it was banned! "The war on cash is mostly over, and the government won," Jim goes on. "But it's not too late to get some gold, which maintains its worth as a physical store of wealth and is not affected by the digitization of other forms of money." That said, what's the best way to get some gold? And what's the best way to keep it? Jim addresses these weighty questions as well in The New Case for Gold. Among other topics, he walks you through…
Amazon will charge $16.66 for The New Case for Gold when it's published on April 5. But if you order through us, you get it free, as long as you can cover a $4.95 shipping-and-handling charge. Your book will be signed by Jim and contain a bonus chapter exclusively for Agora Financial readers. You'll also get a no-obligation trial of Rickards' Strategic Intelligence… and access to an exclusive online briefing on April 5, in which Jim will reveal new information from a well-connected contact about a catalyst that could drive the gold price sharply higher, and soon. It's an unbeatable combination, and it's available nowhere else. Claim your signed hardback copy of The New Case for Gold right here. Regards, Dave Gonigam P.S. Be sure to sign up for The Daily Reckoning — a free and entertaining look at the world of finance and politics. The articles you find here on our website are only a snippet of what you receive in The Daily Reckoning email edition. Click here now to sign up for FREE to see what you're missing. The post The War on Cash Is Already Lost appeared first on Daily Reckoning. |
| Ronan Manly: Venezuela's gold keeps moving to Switzerland Posted: 16 Mar 2016 12:23 PM PDT 3:20p ET Wednesday, March 16, 2016 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Venezuela continues to ship its gold reserves to Switzerland as part of gold swap arrangements to finance the Venezuelan government, gold researcher Ronan Manly reports today, with 12 1/2 tonnes sent via Paris on March 8. Manly's report is posted at Bullion Star here: https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/venezuela-exported-12-5-to... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT We Are Amid the Biggest Financial Bubble in History; With GoldCore you can own allocated -- and most importantly -- segregated coins and bars in Switzerland, Singapore, and Hong Kong. Switzerland, Singapore, and Hong Kong remain extremely safe jurisdictions for storing bullion. Avoid exchange-traded funds and digital gold providers where you are a price taker. Ensure that you are outright legal owner of your bullion. If you do not own segregated bullion that you can visit, inspect, and take delivery of, you are exposed. Crucial guides to storage in Singapore and Switzerland can be read here: http://info.goldcore.com/essential-guide-to-storing-gold-in-singapore http://info.goldcore.com/essential-guide-to-storing-gold-in-switzerland GoldCore does not report transactions to any authority. Safety, privacy, and confidentiality are paramount when we are entrusted with storage of our clients' precious metals. Email the GoldCore team at info@goldcore.com or call our trading desk: UK: +44(0)203-086-9200. U.S.: +1-302-635-1160. International: +353(0)1-632-5010. Visit us at: http://www.goldcore.com Join GATA here: Mines and Money Asia http://asia.minesandmoney.com/ Mining Investment Asia http://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/ Support GATA by purchasing recordings of the proceedings of the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference: https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/2014-av-powell Or by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| Posted: 16 Mar 2016 12:17 PM PDT Gordon T Long, Co-Founder of FRA interviewed Egon von Greyerz in Zurick. Egon Von Greherz is the founder of Matterhorn Asset Management who has worked as a financial director for over 17 years in Geneva, and has been advocating for wealth preservation through Gold for over 13 years. MAM now has plans in over 40 countries for investors to place their savings into physical Gold storage for preservation in the world’s largest Gold vault in Switzerland. |
| Posted: 16 Mar 2016 12:09 PM PDT "We see dimly in the Present what is small and what is great, Slow of faith how weak an arm may turn the iron helm of fate, But the soul is still oracular; amid the market's din, List the ominous stern whisper from the Delphic cave within,— 'They enslave their children's children who make compromise with sin.' Truth forever on the scaffold, Wrong forever on the throne,— Yet that scaffold sways the future, and, behind the dim unknown, Standeth God within the shadow, keeping watch above his own." James Russell Lowell |
| David Morgan: Silver Supply under $16 Is Limited. Serious Backlash Coming If Futures Market Breaks Posted: 16 Mar 2016 12:04 PM PDT Mike Gleason, Money Metals Exchange: I'm happy to welcome back our good friend David Morgan of TheMorganReport.com and author of the book The Silver Manifesto . David it's a pleasure to talk to you as always, how are you? David Morgan, The Morgan Report: I'm doing well, thank you for having me on your show. Mike Gleason: Well to start out I'll ask you to comment on the market action here in 2016 so far. Now, gold and silver have done quite well, we had gold advancing on weakness and concerns in the equities markets earlier in the year. In March, we've seen it continue to do well even as stocks rebounded from a strong employment report. One would think it's a bullish sign when we get good price action even with supposedly negative news for precious metals coming out. So give us your thoughts on the market action so far this year, David, and specifically why do you think the metals have done so well here in the early part of 2016? |
| Posted: 16 Mar 2016 11:21 AM PDT Posing Questions and Exploring some of the different views on reptilians, inter-dimensional beings, demonic energy vampires, and more..... The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]  |
| SILVER INVESTMENT: Switching From A Commodity To High Quality Store Of Value Posted: 16 Mar 2016 11:19 AM PDT SRSRocco Report |
| The Antibiotic Apocalypse Explained Posted: 16 Mar 2016 10:44 AM PDT What is the Antibiotic Apocalypse? What is it all about? And how dangerous is it? The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]  |
| Imagine how much they'd save if they NEVER went back to work Posted: 16 Mar 2016 10:22 AM PDT Venezuela to Shut Down for a Week to Cope With Electricity Crisis By Andrew Rosati Venezuela is shutting down for a week as the government struggles with a deepening electricity crisis. President Nicolas Maduro gave everyone an extra three days off work next week, extending the two-day Easter holiday, according to a statement in the Official Gazette published late Tuesday. Maduro had originally said over the weekend that the extended holiday would apply only to state employees. The government has rationed electricity and water supplies across the country for months and urged citizens to avoid waste as Venezuela endures a prolonged drought that has slashed output at hydroelectric dams. The ruling socialists have blamed the shortage on the El Nino weather phenomena and "sabotage" by their political foes, while critics cite a lack of maintenance and poor planning. "We're hoping, God willing, rains will come," Maduro said in a national address Saturday. "Look, the saving is more than 40 percent when these measures are taken. We're reaching a difficult place that we're trying to manage." ... ... For the remainder of the report: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-16/venezuela-to-shut-down... ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Mines and Money Asia http://asia.minesandmoney.com/ Mining Investment Asia http://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/ Support GATA by purchasing recordings of the proceedings of the 2014 New Orleans Investment Conference: https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/2014-av-powell Or by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| Ronan Manly's encyclopedia of the world's gold markets Posted: 16 Mar 2016 10:13 AM PDT 1:12p ET Wednesday, March 10, 2016 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Our friend gold researcher Ronan Manly has written what is essentially an encyclopedia of gold markets around the world, detailing their mechanisms, participants, trading volumes, and many other characteristics, from London to New York to South Africa to China and in between. This is likely to become a basic reference work for the industry. It can be found at Bullion Star here -- https://www.bullionstar.com/gold-university/london-gold-market-trading -- where it starts with the London market. Sections on other markets are linked in the left column. CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy precious metals free of value-added tax throughout Europe Europe Silver Bullion is a fast-growing dealer sourcing its products from renowned mints, refiners, and distributors. Because of a legal loophole that will close soon, you can acquire the world's most popular bullion coins free of value-added tax throughout the European Union. You can collect your order in person at our headquarters in Tallinn, Estonia, or have it delivered in any of the 28 EU countries. Europe Silver Bullion is owned and operated by North American and European experts in selling, storing, and transporting precious metals. We have an extensive product inventory of silver, gold, platinum, and palladium, and our network spans the world. Visit us at www.europesilverbullion.com. Join GATA here: Mines and Money Asia http://asia.minesandmoney.com/ Mining Investment Asia http://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/ Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| Munich Re stashes gold and cash to counter negative rates Posted: 16 Mar 2016 10:01 AM PDT From Reuters MUNICH, Germany -- German reinsurer Munich Re is boosting its gold and cash reserves in the face of the punishing negative interest rates from the European Central Bank, it said today. The world's largest reinsurer is far from alone in seeking alternative investment strategies to counter the near-zero or negative interest rates that reduce the income insurers require to pay out on policies. Munich Re has held gold in its coffers for some time and recently added a cash sum in in the two-digit million euros, Chief Executive Nikolaus von Bomhard told a news conference. ... ... For the remainder of the report: http://www.reuters.com/article/munich-re-ecb-idUSL5N16O3DE ADVERTISEMENT Silver mining stock report comes with 1-ounce silver round Future Money Trends is offering a special 18-page silver mining stock report about how to profit with the monetary and industrial metal, and it comes with a free 1-ounce silver round. Proceeds from the report's sales are shared with the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts to expose manipulation in the monetary metals markets. To learn about this report, please visit: Join GATA here: Mines and Money Asia http://asia.minesandmoney.com/ Mining Investment Asia http://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/ Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| Koos Jansen: China and Kazakhstan join forces in the gold market Posted: 16 Mar 2016 09:55 AM PDT 12:55p ET Wednesday, March 16, 2016 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen today reports signs of increasing cooperation in the gold market between China and Kazakhstan and other Asia nations. His report is headlined "Kazakhstan and China Join Forces in the Gold Market" and it's posted at Bullion Star here: https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/kazakhstan-china-join-forc... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT USAGold: Coins and bullion since 1973 USAGold, well known for its Internet site, USAGold.com, offers contemporary bullion coins and bullion-related historic gold coins for delivery to private investors in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. It is one of the oldest and most respected names in the gold industry, with thousands of clients and an approach to investment that emphasizes guidance and individual needs over high-pressure sales tactics. The firm's zero-complaint record at the Better Business Bureau makes it an ideal match for the conservative, long-term investor looking for a reliable contact in the gold business. Please call 1-800-869-5115x100 and ask for the trading desk, or visit: USAGold: Great prices, quick delivery -- all the time. Join GATA here: Mines and Money Asia http://asia.minesandmoney.com/ Mining Investment Asia http://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/ Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of GATA's London conference in August 2011 or GATA's Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| Fed to Announce Rate Decision – Will Janet Play Ball? Posted: 16 Mar 2016 09:00 AM PDT This post Fed to Announce Rate Decision – Will Janet Play Ball? appeared first on Daily Reckoning. And now… today's Pfennig for your thoughts… Good day, and a wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, THE March day that everyone has been pointing to is here. Yes, today is the day we’ll hear Fed Chair, Janet Yellen tell us that the Fed will not hike rates today, and then she’ll spend an inordinate amount of time telling us why the Fed will still be looking to hike rates in 2016. So, will Janet Yellen play ball with Mario Draghi? Or will she play ball with BOJ Gov. Kuroda? That’s what today is all about folks for these two Central Bankers. They’ve shot monetary policy stimulus out of a bazooka at their respective economies and now need the Fed to play along with a U.S. rate hike. Why, you might ask? Both Draghi and Kuroda feel that they need weaker currencies to stimulate growth, and they think that IF the Fed would hike rates today, it would be the icing on their respective cakes. Because after throwing the kitchen sink at their economies, their respective currencies both rallied. I find this to be amusing, sort of, given that these Central Bankers are now reaching – grabbing for straws – and I’m afraid they are going to come out of today empty handed. What will they feel they need to do then? Logic says that a no rate hike today by the Fed, would weaken the dollar and thus strengthen the currencies. The markets have no logic in them any longer, no rhyme, no reason. So, let’s talk about this rate hike decision today a bit… If the Fed passes on their opportunity to hike rates today, when will they return to complete their call for four rate hikes this year? Well, June seems most likely, and the last chance saloon since hiking rates any later than June would be too political, and one party would accuse the Fed of taking sides, etc. The Fed is in enough hot water with lawmakers, they don’t want to make the water boiling hot! And June might, just might be too late, but I think it will be OK. And besides in December I told you that I thought the Fed would hike in March and June and then before year-end, have to be seriously thinking about reversing those rate hikes, and/or coming back to the QE/bond buying table. So, that’s what’s on the docket today. The currencies are mixed this morning, and gold is flat. I wouldn’t think that any traders would be going hog-wild on a currency or metal ahead of the Fed announcement this afternoon. There’ll be time enough for that once the Fed put away all the board games, and tally up the score, to see who the two-day winner is, and makes their rate decision. There’s some disturbing news from China this morning that we need to spend some time talking about, so there’s better time than now. It appears that China is getting very close to implementing a Tobin Tax. In the true sense of the term, a Tobin Tax is intended to put a penalty on all spot conversions of a currency. It’s meant to stem the speculating in a currency. But the Chinese version of this would not be designed to curb transactions related to hedging or trade activity. It would be squarely implemented to curb speculation. But there’s more to this than just a tax or penalty on a trade. And the damage that something like this can do to an economy is just as risky as the good things it brings can be beneficial to an economy. In other words, an economy could go either way. And when you have an economy that’s experiencing a slowdown, it’s a scary proposition, as far as I’m concerned. There’s nothing concrete on this yet, folks. But here are the facts; It has been reported that China is drafting rules on a Tobin Tax. And Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) Vice Gov. Yi Gang has previously announced his support for a Tobin Tax in publications endorsed by the Communist Party in 2014, and 2015. What have I always told you about the Chinese leaders? That they don’t say things willy-nilly, and without reason. if they say something they intend to make it happen. The same can be said about policies. If they write a policy, they intend to make it happen. So, I believe we can fully expect to see a Tobin Tax implemented in China. At this time, I don’t believe this will affect our Chinese renminbi deposit accounts, but we haven’t seen the devil in the details yet. Of course I will let you know, when I know! Oh! And the Chinese pushed the renminbi down last night at the fixing. The euro is trading in the same clothes as yesterday. Actually, it’s down 10 ticks from yesterday’s currency roundup price. Last week it was the U.S. with an empty data cupboard, and this week, we’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see some data that counts in the Eurozone. On Thursday, February final prints of CPI will show their faces. No changes are expected from the flash reports that printed earlier this month and showed that consumer inflation (CPI) in the Eurozone had gone negative again, after a couple of months of getting its head above water. One more note on the Fed rate decision today. This rate decision will determine if the recent uptick in risk sentiment continues or is snuffed out. The risk sentiment has, as we’ve seen, been very important to the Aussie & New Zealand dollars, and gold. The A$ and kiwi are both up a tiny bit this morning as both wait for the Fed. The latest Aussie labor report will print tonight. You might recall that Aussie job growth in the fourth QTR was outstanding, but January showed that the strong monthly job gains could be over. So, this Feb labor report is important, remember, I told you earlier this week, that we have to watch the data from Australia. I think that the January weak report was a one and done, and that February’s report will return to strong job growth. And that should be good for the A$… But that would be logical. Well, the U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had some interesting data for our review, so let’s do that! The Big piece of data yesterday was February Retail Sales, which I said would be disappointing at best, and that’s what they were! With February’s total printing at -0.1%, and it wasn’t bad enough for the Feb data to print negative, the January Retail Sales were revised downward from 0.1% to -0.4%! I watched and read about this Retail Sales data all day yesterday, and no one was talking about the downward revision. That’s shameful in my opinion! U.S. PPI (wholesale inflation) dropped to -0.2% in February vs. January, and the annual PPI was 0.0%… No pipeline inflation folks. Can you believe that? I can’t. Today’s Data Cupboard has two of my faves. Industrial Production (IP) and Capacity Utilization (CAPU). These two pieces of “real economic data” have really been weak for some time now, and I expect that to remain the same for February. And I have to mention this, even though I don’t want to. The stupid CPI for Feb prints today. Gold closed yesterday, down $3 ($3.20 ), and like I said above, is flat this morning. My guitar playing, investment analyst guru friend, Steve Sjuggerud, had this to say about gold yesterday in his Daily Wealth newsletter than can be found on the stansberryresearch.com website:
Steve was referring to negative rates, as negative “real rates.” I’ve explained this before, but you get “real rates” when you take the interest rate and subtract inflation. Here in the U.S. our “real rates” have been negative for some time, with the percentage rate of the negative rate determined by whatever figure you use for inflation. I also received a comment on the Pfennig website yesterday, from the Daily Pfennig on Monday. Let’s tune in to what the reader said, which can be found in the comments section of the letter:
Seems you can’t make all the people happy, all the time, eh? Makes one wonder why someone would take the time to read something that contains worthless thoughts? It’s a good thing my mom has passed, for she would not be happy to read that her favorite son’s thoughts were worthless. CPI might not show it. The ECI might not show it, and any other government measure that tracks inflation might not show it. but according to ShadowSats.com and John Williams, inflation is around 7%. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard thinks that inflation is rearing its ugly head here in the U.S. This is an interesting article and can be read in its entirety by clicking here, or, I have a snippet for you:
Chuck again. Yes, we all agree that food has shown price increases, insurance, medications, baseball tickets, the list goes on and on with things that have seen inflation , but one major item you won’t see is wage inflation. Wages are going nowhere, fast, and that’s the inflation the Fed needs to see. That’s it for today. Tomorrow is St. Patrick’s Day, and with me having Irish blood, I try to be as Irish as I can on that day! So, let’s end today’s letter with an Irish Blessing:
Happy St. Patrick’s day, one day early. I hope you have a wonderful Wednesday, and be sure to be good to yourself! Regards, Chuck Butler P.S. Be sure to sign up for The Daily Reckoning — a free and entertaining look at the world of finance and politics. The articles you find here on our website are only a snippet of what you receive in The Daily Reckoning email edition. Click here now to sign up for FREE to see what you're missing. The post Fed to Announce Rate Decision – Will Janet Play Ball? appeared first on Daily Reckoning. |
| Posted: 16 Mar 2016 09:00 AM PDT This post My Response to this Hate Mail appeared first on Daily Reckoning. I recently received the following hate mail from one of my paid-up subscribers, Mark R: "I’m trying to not be cynical, but with the exception of [your latest buy signal in Trend Following with Michael Covel] you haven’t proven anything about trend following. You keep sending out stories and opinions, which are entertaining, but there is no proof coming….It’s been about three months since I bought into you and all I have to show is [your latest buy signal]….I’m trying to be patient…I think I understand…but where’s something I can use to validate or paper trade or see from your current portfolio? Please stop selling Trend following over and over to the choir and substantiate it! Thanks" Mark, I'm going to share my response to you with all readers because I've seen this kind of feedback many times before. I know some readers might feel like you. Let me be direct: Trend following is just not for everyone. Many want a Holy Grail that can make them instantly rich. They spend their lives looking for the never to be found Holy Grail… searching for "the next guru" with a crystal ball… looking for the "next big prediction or forecast." At the end of a lifetime, they end up retiring to the poorhouse. Because the truth is there's no Holy Grail. I'm not sure what you mean by "you haven't proven anything about trend following." Maybe you were expecting the first recommendation from my system to rally 1,000% or more in less than a month. I just don't know. But if you're looking for proof that trend following works, my four books and my podcast do just that. In fact, Barry Ritholtz said that my classic book Trend Following is "straightforward, easy to read, …and rich in details about why trend following is such a successful strategy amongst some of the world’s best-performing hedge funds." I even sent you my brand-new book called The Trend Following Way, which is only available to Agora Financial subscribers. But maybe you didn't read it. Maybe you didn't bother to listen to my podcast either. It really sounds like trend following is not right for you. Any new life endeavor takes patience and how you think you have it I am not sure. Our very first issue was one month ago. Just one month. If you don't have patience, it would be best for both of us to save our time and not have a relationship. We can part as friends. Now, I want to address your request to "stop selling trend following." I've heard that many times before too. People say: "I don't want to read about trend following principles, just give me the investment picks or the trading rules." I guarantee without trend following principles, you will fail. That is 100% certainty. In fact, I asked my friend Charles Faulkner to share more trend principles with you to prove my point. Faulkner is an author, trader, and international expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in "The New Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager. He was also featured in my film Broke, and has appeared on my podcast several times. Below, he shares seven statements that sum up trend following philosophy. I hope you enjoy his insights. Please send me your comments to coveluncensored@agorafinancial.com. I'd love to hear your thoughts. Please tell me exactly what you think. Don't sugar coat it! Regards, Michael Covel Inside the Counterintuitive World of Trend FollowersBy Charles Faulkner
When trend followers say they have a philosophy, they are talking about how they know the world around them, and this knowledge is not from books. It is won from the world and is quite empirical. The trend-following philosophy can be summarized in seven statements – taken in part from actual utterances of trend followers (and the rest used with poetic license as regards their principles). Each will be covered in detail in the ensuing paragraphs. They are: ✓No one can predict the future; The difference between trend followers and other types of traders isn't one of style. What trend followers do is outside the scope of normal human reactions. Frankly, their deeply counterintuitive strategy should alert other traders that something very different is going on. Take the adage every trader knows: "Cut your losses, let your profi ts run." Clearly, every trader will agree that it is the hardest thing to do. Why? Is it because "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" (or in the account)? Or is it because when your dog runs away from home, he is usually back by dinner? Trend followers know about these experiences, and they know something else: They know that all of these examples are anecdotal. They are just personal experiences and beliefs that will bias their judgement. Trend followers know that these instances are not reliable guides to the nature of markets. All right then, what is? No One Can Predict the Future"There is no predicting anything," the very successful trend follower, John W. Henry, tells us. What this means is that all of your hunches, intuitions and beliefs about how the world works are steeped in self-deception. Thus, despite pronouncements of a bunch of experts on television or elsewhere, tech stocks are not trading because of anything; gold is not moving for anybody. The Fed rate is not changing for a particular reason. It's not that there are not market influences or market makers or reasons that markets change. There are. It's just that there are so many of them. But to quantify them and to make a judgment about their relative weights and influences is beyond the possibility of anyone. Trend follower and president of Dunn Capital, Bill Dunn, has a doctorate in theoretical physics. No one gets a doctorate in that discipline without understanding, in a deep way, the "three-body" problem. In the celestial version, Sir Isaac Newton found a way to mathematically describe the interaction of two bodies – the earth and the moon. To do this, he ignored all the other influences in the heavens. Enough for a start, he assumed his two-body solution would lead to solutions being found for the interaction of three, four and more. Two centuries later, they hadn't. Finally, to speed things along, a prize was offered by the king of Sweden. It was won in 1889 by Henri Poincare, but not for solving it. He demonstrated that it could not be solved. Professor Poincare found that with just three bodies, the behavior of each one affecting the other made it impossible to calculate directly what was going on, and therefore, how the bodies would affect each other. The same is true of the relationships between stocks, bonds and futures. Approximations are possible, but counterintuitively the more accurate that market participants try to make their models, the more these models cease to describe what is going on in the world. The conclusion is, quite simply, that the world is much richer and more detailed than any model, and every model of complex behavior (starting with only three bodies) will fall short of a description that allows prediction. Was that too much detail? It turns out that trend followers are fascinated with the details of what is in the world and how it works. They live and work in the world of what is. If You Can Take the Would-be, Could-be and Should-be Out of Life and Look at What Actually Is, You Have a Big Advantage over Most Human BeingsTake these remarks by John W. Henry when asked how he created and maintains his discipline: "Well, you create discipline by having a strategy you really believe in. If you haven't done your homework properly and haven't made assumptions that you can really live with when you're faced with difficult periods, then it won't work. It really doesn't take much discipline if you have tremendous confidence in what you're doing." What are these assumptions? Henry is clear about them – "No one consistently can predict anything, especially investors…" and "…other investors are convinced that they can predict the future, and I believe that's where our profits come from." Notice that Henry's assumptions are not social givens such as, "I assume you are joining us for dinner," or "I assume I'm going to be rich." They are not even beliefs in the psychological sense, that is, a feeling of certainty about something that cannot be determined for sure. Many traders and trading coaches will read Henry's statement and conclude that what they need is tremendous self-confidence, an indomitable belief in the likelihood their success. They will want to instill beliefs like, "I will be a great trader," or "I deserve to be rich." But these "success beliefs" miss the point when it comes to trend following. It isn't what trend followers think of themselves that matters, it's what they know about the world. What Matters Can Be MeasuredWhat kind of assumptions do you make if "there is no predicting anything?" If there is no predicting anything, what do trend followers do when they do their research? If they have already taken the would-be, could-be and should-be out of the scenario in order to look at what is, then what is? All traders know that there are vast quantities of price data available. What trend followers measure is the likelihood of price patterns recurring – in other words, probabilities. With probabilities, the human feeling for a market, intuitions about price movements and the gratifying feedback of getting it right disappear. Jerry Parker, top trend follower and president of Chesapeake Capital, reminds us that trend-following metrics and measurements are "…not intuitive, not natural, too long term, not exciting enough." They are experienced as counterintuitive. Market wizard Richard Dennis (whose hobbies include studying baseball statistics) is attributed with saying, "If your system makes a little money all year and loses a lot of money twice a year, reverse your system." This sounds crazy, but Dennis has run the numbers, and the couple of wins will outstrip all the losses the rest of the year by a wide margin. Trend follower trader Ed Seykota adds, "If you can't measure it, you probably can't manage it." "When" Doesn't MatterYou don't need to know when something will happen to know that it will. Trend followers know there is a statistically significant likelihood that a big payoff trade is coming, but they do not know in what market and they do not know when, so they must take every trade their systems generate. They know the vast majority of the trades the systems generate will result in a loss or a small gain. Richard Dennis is reported to have had an extraordinary number of winning trades for a trend trader, 55 percent, and it is said that he still made all of his "real money" on less than five percent of his trades. To do this, trend followers must live at least part of life in this larger, abstract and statistical scope of time. For trend followers, the everyday moments of trading participate inside a "campaign" in a certain market or instrument where traders see each moment as the possibility of a statistical opportunity. This tends to reduce the importance of individual trades. The price will move – that's what is. There is a statistical probability for each outcome. One of the actual outcomes will happen. Prices Only Move Up, Down or SidewaysComputerized trading software is so prevalent that traders can quickly create a trading system so complex that is it quite beyond their understanding. Meanwhile, clarity of thought and simplicity of design are the hallmarks of a good trend-following system. Trend followers know that however deep or complex their thinking is about trading, the input to their system is limited to one of three possible states – price increase, decrease or no change – and the final output of their system must be one of three actions, buy, sell or do nothing. This allows for fast heuristics. Losses Are a Part of LifeIn his classic, The Battle for Investment Survival, Gerald Loeb writes, "Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to insure safety of capital. It is also the action people know the least about and that which they are least liable to execute." Though this statement should resonate with all traders, it has a special meaning for trend followers. Trend followers tend to be more aware of the relationship between losses and gains than other types of traders. They realize that a large loss affects their trading gains over the lifetime of their portfolio. They realize that trading less frequently reduces the number of their losses as well as transaction costs and, so, is another effective means of preserving their capital. According to Ed Seykota, elements of good trading include, "(1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance." Few non-trend-following traders realize that Seykota is talking about three different kinds of losses. The first two of them are offered above – reducing the largest loss by strictly limiting position size and reducing the overall number of trades. Only trend followers know about the third. To quote John W. Henry again, "The desire to have close stops to preserve open trade equity has tremendous costs over decades." In essence, he is referring to cutting the exit stops that would turn trades into losses in volatile markets and greatly reduce eventual gains. This once again draws attention to the fact that trend followers, while trading in the same markets as everyone else, are living and working in profoundly different and more detailed worlds. Does this make taking a loss easier? Yes and no. Yes, trend followers know they can't know the future, that there are statistical opportunities for those who know how to exploit them, that they must respond to every opportunity, and that they must preserve capital to continue trading. They backtest this until they are convinced it's the case. Then they set up their systems and take the trades that the system calls. And no, trend followers are human and hate to part with something of value. The need for the adage "Cut your losses, let your profits run," is much like the need for the Ten Commandments. We do not have to be told what is in our nature. In going against our nature, instinct and a lifetime of cultural conditioning, trend followers really earn their money. What About the Rest of Us?Some people call economics the dismal science. But those people haven't talked to cognitive neuroscientists. According to their research, we humans have limited perceptual as well as information-processing abilities. When faced with decisions, whenever possible we tend to use simple rules and short-cuts, and we apply a criterion of sufficiency (good enough for now) – with little review of possible consequences and in a way that requires the least possible effort. So, clearly, most of us will not measure up to the stiff requirements of successful trend following. On the other hand, these differences are due to the encouragement of some innate attitudes like curiosity about the world and some life-changing experiences like studying physics or learning about probabilities. For example, Bill Dunn and Ed Seykota are graduates in physics and engineering. John W. Henry became convinced of his assumptions as a student when he collaborated with his college instructor on a strategy for beating the odds at blackjack. As any reader of Edward O. Thorp's famous book, Beat the Dealer, can tell you, it's all about the probabilities. In fact, the number of outstanding traders mentioned in Jack Schwager's two Market Wizards books, some of whom started as gamblers, could fill a suit in a deck of cards. This makes sense. A trader who directly experiences the results of probabilities over and over again will become convinced that he doesn't need to know the future to win. He will recognize that the odds/probabilities shift over time. If this sounds like an encouragement to join the current poker craze, it's not. But if you do, keep in mind you are "at the table" to practice these odds-watching skills. The stakes need to be small enough that you are learning from your experience, not adding more traumas to your trading. Another way to get started is to get more curious about the world of what is. Your children can help you with this, and even if you don't have any, you can still take a walk in the woods and notice that the shape of the leaves, branches and the trees are similar each other. Or go shopping and notice how you respond to closeouts and one-of-a-kind items. Or how people decide on what to order in a restaurant. Fractal market analysis, behavioral finance and heuristics all started with people noticing these kinds of things about the world everybody else thought they already knew. So do many trading ideas. Trend followers can't trust their senses or their intuition or their better judgment. They deal in quantities and probabilities with bodies and minds designed for instincts and feelings. To paraphrase Woody Allen, their experience of the world may be untrustworthy, but it's the only place they can get a great steak. Us too. Regards, Charles Faulkner The post My Response to this Hate Mail appeared first on Daily Reckoning. |
| Paul Craig Roberts On Russia, Turkey, NATO Where It's All Heading! Posted: 16 Mar 2016 08:30 AM PDT Paul Craig Roberts On Russia, Turkey, NATO Where It's All Heading! The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]  |
| Sheikh Imran Hosein the Mysteries Force that is Turning the World Around Posted: 16 Mar 2016 08:00 AM PDT Sheikh Imran Hosein the Mysteries Force that is Turning the World Around The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]  |
| World War 3 Could Start This Month 350,000 Soldiers In Saudi Arabia Stand Ready To Invade Syria Posted: 16 Mar 2016 06:21 AM PDT 350,000 soldiers, 20,000 tanks, 2,450 warplanes and 460 military helicopters are massing in northern Saudi Arabia for a military exercise that is being called "Northern Thunder". The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]  |
| U.S. Dollar Outlook: Peak Dollar? Posted: 16 Mar 2016 04:45 AM PDT Is the dollar's seemingly relentless rise in recent years coming to an end? What are the implications not only for the greenback, but other currencies and markets around the world? |
| Posted: 15 Mar 2016 05:00 PM PDT Is the dollar's seemingly relentless rise in recent years coming to an end? What are the implications not only for the greenback but other currencies and markets around the world? The chart below shows the US dollar index over the past 40... |
| Posted: 15 Mar 2016 01:50 PM PDT This post A Tale of Three Worlds appeared first on Daily Reckoning. F. Scott Fitzgerald, author of The Great Gatsby, famously said, "The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function." My update on Fitzgerald is that investors today who want to be first-rate need to hold three opposed ideas in mind at the same time. Those three ideas are the real world, the Fed's world, and the markets. As always, retaining the ability to function is essential. Let's take these three ideas one at a time. The real world of the economy is bleak. Global growth is slowing both because of weakness in developed economies (Europe and Japan), and weakness in some of the emerging markets champions (China, Brazil and Russia). The limits of monetary policy have been reached. (The evidence is now clear that negative interest rates don't stimulate spending; they are only good for devaluation in the ongoing currency wars). World trade is shrinking; a rare phenomenon usually associated with recession or depression. The U.S. is held up as a beacon of strength in this barren real world landscape, but that's also deceiving. U.S. manufacturing is already in recession. Dismissing manufacturing as a small part of GDP in a service-driven economy is facile. When gross manufacturing supply chain sales are counted (rather than net value-added used for GDP purposes), manufacturing looms much larger. It is also the source of higher-paying jobs compared to the service sector. These high-paying manufacturing jobs (now lost) are the key to real wage gains and aggregate demand. Strength in auto sales is also deceiving because sales are based on shipments to dealers, not final sales. In fact, inventories of unsold autos are sky high and will need to be worked off or else assembly lines will slow down. Distress in the energy sector is another well-vetted vector. The way the Federal Reserve sees the economy is quite different from the real world picture just described. In the Fed's world, models dictate reality rather than the other way around. The models (such as NAIRU, the Phillips Curve, and FRB/US) say that when unemployment is low and job creation is strong, inflation is imminent. Since monetary policy works with a lag, and since the Fed is determined not to be behind the curve on inflation, the implied policy of this model output is to raise interest rates. This is the theoretical basis for the Fed's tightening policy, which began in May 2013 with Bernanke's "taper talk" and continued in stages through Janet Yellen's December 2015 "liftoff" in interest rates. At the December 2015 FOMC meeting, the Fed laid out a path for interest rate hikes of 300 basis points over three years in small increments. The implication of this was that the Fed would raise interest rates 25 basis point every other meeting. (The FOMC meets 8 times per year, so the 25 basis point-per-meeting tempo would exactly meet the Fed's timetable). Based on the employment situation and other signs of strength, (the Atlanta Fed GDP "nowcast" indicates 2.2% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016; a significant improvement over the fourth quarter of 2015), a 25 basis point rate hike was in the cards for this week's FOMC meeting. Clearly the Fed will not be hiking rates this week. (They would have signaled that already if a rate hike were in the cards). What happened? Why has the Fed abandoned its rate hike path so soon after taking the first step? The answer lies in the third world we have to consider – the markets. The market view of Fed policy is remarkably simple. Easy money is good, tight money is bad. There's not a lot else to know. Stocks are clearly in a bubble. The stock market is ignoring the strong dollar (which hurts exports and devalues overseas earnings). It is also ignoring declining corporate earnings, imminent defaults in the energy sector, and declining global growth in general. Never mind. As long as money is cheap and leverage is plentiful, there's no reason not to bid up stock prices, and wait for the greater fool to bid them up some more. Markets discount the future. What matters is not actual Fed policy but expectations about policy. Markets crashed from January 1 to February 11 at a time when they expected Fed tightening to continue. Once the markets saw fear in the Fed's eyes (as evidenced by the January FOMC statement and minutes, and a high-profile speech by New York Fed President Dudley), they rallied from February 11 until now. Markets concluded the Fed would not tighten after all, easy money was still on offer, and there was no reason for equity hedge funds and algos not to bid up stocks. By late February, the gap between market expectations of Fed policy (as revealed by fed funds futures and economist surveys) and the Fed's preferred path (as revealed by the December 2015 statement and Yellen press conference) was wider than the Grand Canyon. If the Fed raised rates on March 16 while markets expected no rate hikes as far as the eye can see, there would have been bloodbath as markets immediately repriced their expectations. In light of this looming train wreck, there were only two courses of action for the Fed. They either had to back off their rate hike path, or signal a rate hike and let the market reprice expectations in advance. In the crunch, the Fed blinked. A March rate hike is off the table. Markets are relieved that the Fed won't hike rates in March. But, markets are never satisfied any more than a junkie ever has enough dope. Once past March 16, the expectations game immediately shifts to June 15, 2016, the next likely date for a Fed rate hike. Which brings us back to the real world. The U.S. is probably heading into a recession later this year. Fed rate hikes make no sense in this environment and will make the recession more likely. The Fed wants to hike anyway because they don't see the recession; (they see "Fed World" through the lens of obsolete models). The Fed has never correctly forecast a recession in any case. They are always the last to know. Larry Summers has estimated that it takes 300 basis points of rate cuts to alleviate the impact of a recession and start the recovery process. The Fed is desperate to raise rates 300 basis points (as they projected in December) to have the dry powder they need to fight the next recession. The irony is that by hiking rates at all in a weak economy, the Fed makes the recession more likely. Meanwhile, markets are poised to crash as soon as the Fed does hike rates (because of tendencies toward recession and a strong dollar which hurts exports and corporate earnings). The looming March-to-June 2016 sequence is reminiscent of two prior episodes: the September-to-December 2013 sequence, and the September-to-December 2015 sequence. In September 2013 the markets widely expected the start of tapering. The Fed shocked most observers by not launching the taper. They then spent the next three months signaling that they would in fact taper. In December 2013 they did so. In September 2015 the markets widely expected the liftoff. The Fed surprised most observers by not raising rates. They then spent the next three months signaling that they would in fact raise rates. In December 2015 they did so. Now, in March 2016 the Fed will not raise rates despite creating the expectation they would do so as recently as last January. Markets have crushed that former expectation and now expect no rate hike. The Fed will acquiesce this time, but will spend the next several months getting markets ready for a June rate hike. (A September rate hike is off the table because of its proximity to the U.S. election. The Fed is in enough hot water with politicians and does not need the attention of seeming to favor one political party over another). If the Fed does not hike in June, they can forget about ever having enough dry powder for the next recession. So, they will hike in June. Getting market expectations aligned with the intended FOMC policy path will not be pretty. Expect higher volatility and stock market drawdowns in April and May as markets reprice. A further stock market correction has been postponed, but not avoided. June is the new March. Regards, Jim Rickards P.S. Be sure to sign up for The Daily Reckoning — a free and entertaining look at the world of finance and politics. The articles you find here on our website are only a snippet of what you receive in The Daily Reckoning email edition. Click here now to sign up for FREE to see what you're missing. The post A Tale of Three Worlds appeared first on Daily Reckoning. |
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - The Vultures Posted: 15 Mar 2016 01:17 PM PDT |
Silver Prices to Skyrocket on Back of Investor Demand
In his book, Trend Following, Michael Covel states that trend followers have a philosophy that informs their trading. What is all too easy to miss is that these philosophies aren't after-dinner digressions.| You are subscribed to email updates from Save Your ASSets First. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
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