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Saturday, July 4, 2015

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saveyourassetsfirst3


Peter Hambro's nightmare when his Russian Gold miner nearly went out of business

Posted: 04 Jul 2015 04:56 AM PDT

A tumbling gold price nearly wrecked plans for the Russian gold mining company Petropavlovsk






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Another Black Monday if referendum in Greece says ‘no’

Posted: 04 Jul 2015 01:32 AM PDT

Global financial markets face a day of reckoning on Monday if the Greek referendum goes against another austerity package and bailout, and supports its government with a ‘no’ vote. Polls are running 50:50 so this is just too close to call and a major risk.

It is astonishing how remarkably stable markets have been ahead of this event with the vast majority assuming that if Greece exits the euro it will be bad for Greece but not important for the rest of the world.

Grexit warning

British finance minister George Osborne warned earlier last week that it would be a great mistake to underestimate the impact of the so-called ‘Grexit’. He is being realistic, not alarmist.

When markets fail to discount future events correctly then they have to correct accordingly. Monday would see a huge correction if Greece leaves the Grexit open as a very high probability.

Wall Street traders do not understand European politics and the byzantine world of Greek politics is beyond almost anybody outside of a small circle of insiders and eurocrats. To assume that all will go well is question of ‘extend and pretend’ and this time the crisis has gone beyond this point.

Capital controls

The capital controls imposed in Greece last week have done long-term damage to the economy and will remain for the months it will take to reach any new deal, preferably with a new government without the muddled communist objectives of the current incumbents.

In truth Greece will be sorted out but probably not without causing substantial disruption in financial markets, if nothing else be raising the yields on eurobonds to levels that inhibit economic recover and mess up quantitative easing.

Eventually there will be a ‘yes’ for Greece, in or out of the eurozone. But in the meantime the Greek government has decided a plague on all your houses and intends to bring down the rest of the world with them.

That they won’t succeed is obvious. However, to assume that a credit event this large can be born by financial markets with barely a ripple in the pond is monumentally complacent.

Black Monday

As that complacency meets a very different reality on Monday we will indeed have a black day in global financial markets, far worse than the nasty storm of the previous week.

What will that mean? Lower stock markets across the board. A flight of safety to the dollar, yen and this time gold and silver. Higher bond yields. And a lot of worries about who’s next after Greece.

These days are often known later as a Black Monday.

Physical gold buying rockets but prices manipulated lower

Posted: 03 Jul 2015 11:25 PM PDT

Physical gold buying has taken off in Europe during recent weeks as the Greek crisis reaches its climax though central bank intervention in the Comex paper market for the metal has so far managed to keep a lid on prices and actually push them down.

Demand from Greek customers for Sovereign gold coins was double the five-month average in June, said the Royal Mint. CoinInvest.com, an online retailer, said sales last Saturday and Sunday were the highest since Cyprus limited cash withdrawals in 2013, driven by a jump in German, French and Greek buyers.

Capital controls

Investors are searching for a safe haven after Greece imposed capital controls, closed banks and stopped selling gold coins to the public. The referendum this weekend may or may not result in a quick resolution of this crisis.

GoldCore, which buys and sells bullion, reported coin and bar demand rose ’significantly’ on Monday with sales about three times the average for the past three Mondays. The US Mint sold 61,500 ounces of American Eagle gold coins last month, the most since January.

BullionVault, which says it operates the largest online physical gold trading platform, reported a jump in sales during the first half of this year, a sign of a broader increase.

What happens next in the Greek crisis is clearly going to be critical for gold. If the country votes to leave the euro then chaos will breakout in global financial markets this Monday and the central banks will likely lose control of the gold price along with a lot of other things.

If Greece comes back to the table with its tail between its legs then markets will likely give a muted response and carry on with business as normal. That said the Chinese equity bubble’s bust last week is another factor that will likely move the gold price going forward.

One factor depressing the gold price recently has been the flow of money into equities in China, reversing the rush to buy gold. With gold one of the few alternatives to cash in China for investors this safe haven should now move back into favor.

Buy gold now

Of course if both worried European and Chinese investors now decide to buy precious metals then this asset class is due for a really serious re-rating.

What the physical market is telling you is that the tipping point for gold prices is very close and the bears are barking up the wrong tree. Equities are topping and gold has been bottoming.

Where do markets usually move from that position?

Why you can’t day trade Gold

Posted: 03 Jul 2015 03:00 PM PDT

Goldchat

Alasdair Macleod: There Will Be a NEW WORLD Monday Morning!

Posted: 03 Jul 2015 02:20 PM PDT

With Greece on the Brink, Alasdair Macleod Joined the Show to Provide an Inside Look at the Crisis, Discussing: What is the Greek Referendum REALLY ABOUT? Will the Greek debt be written down? China CRASHES By 30%-  CHINESE BUBBLE IS IMPLODING! The Contagion Will Happen– Expect Banks to Remain Closed on a No Vote! There Will […]

The post Alasdair Macleod: There Will Be a NEW WORLD Monday Morning! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

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Gerald Celente: Greek Crisis, Gold and Geopolitics

Posted: 03 Jul 2015 02:00 PM PDT

GoldBroker

Analyst: It's time to start looking for bargains in Greece

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 11:35 AM PDT

By Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor, International Man:

For the unprepared, it happens like a mugging…

When you hear a central banker or politician deny that something is going to happen to bank depositors, you can almost be certain that it will happen. And probably soon.

Coming from a government official, the real meaning of "No, of course not" is "Could be tomorrow."

There's a reason for the dishonesty. The government needs to take the public by surprise. Otherwise they won't get the results they want from capital controls or a bank holiday.

The term bank holiday is a politician's euphemism. When one happens, you won't be celebrating. You won't be able to access your bank account, and you'll be worried.

How will you get by, and how long will the lockout last? And when it ends, will all your money still be there? Will any of it remain?

Calling the experience a bank holiday is like calling a street mugging a surprise party.

Once the banks are closed – or on "holiday," as the government puts it – the politicians are free to help themselves to as much of the customer deposits (including yours) as they want. It's like an all-you-can-steal buffet.

A bank holiday usually dovetails with capital controls, which are restrictions on the free flow of money out of the country. Capital controls make it hard for the country's remaining wealth to dodge a future mugging.

Bank holidays and capital controls are all about the government maximizing the amount of money available for them to confiscate during a crisis. Pen up the sheep, and they're easier to shear.

It's a common pattern… 1) country in financial trouble, 2) government denials, 3) surprise bank holiday, 4) wealth confiscation, and 5) capital controls.

It's a pattern we've seen repeated in many countries in economic crisis.

We saw it in Cyprus during their banking crisis of 2013. The trap slammed shut without warning on an otherwise ordinary Saturday morning. The government declared a surprise bank holiday. Capital controls and a bank deposit confiscation followed. It occurred despite repeated promises from the highest Cypriot politicians that bank deposits would be safe.

And now we are seeing the same pattern in Greece.

For the past month, Greece's government has been denying that it intends to impose capital controls. Yesterday, Sunday morning, the Greek Finance Ministry repeated the denial yet again. Then on the same day – a few hours later – the Greek government declared a weeklong bank holiday. And they would impose capital controls after all.

But don't worry. The Greek Prime Minister promised that bank deposits would be “completely safe."

Rather than being "completely safe," they are far more likely to be harvested by the Greek government, which is free to do as so many troubled governments have done… take the money and run.

Given Greece's years of chronic financial weakness, none of this should come as a surprise.

There was ample time for any Greek citizen to protect himself from what the government is now doing. But now, with the bank holiday in place, it's too late.

Moving money into something that Greek politicians can't steal with a couple taps on a keyboard – like a Greek bank account – would have bought a large measure of protection.

A bank account in another EU country like Austria, a piece of real estate in South America, some physical gold in Singapore or a brokerage account in Hong Kong would have been just what the doctor ordered.

Most people understand that it's foolish to keep all their eggs in one basket. Yet they fail to go far enough in applying the principle. Diversification isn't just about investing in multiple stocks or in multiple asset classes. Real diversification – the kind that keeps you safe – means holding assets in multiple countries, so that you're not overexposed to the economic and political risks that are present in every country.

The problem is, despite having options available to them, many Greeks had a "this can't happen here" mentality. So they did nothing to prepare. The reality is, what happened in Greece can happen in any country, as it has happened throughout history.

But could it really happen in the US? According to Judge Andrew Napolitano, the troubling answer is YES. The judge is a legal expert. He knows all about bank holidays, capital controls, and other shenanigans politicians pull. The judge has said, "People who have more than $100,000 in the bank are targets for any government that's looking for money to shore up its own inability to manage its finances."

The whole ordeal in Greece is yet another example of why international diversification is so important. It's a prudent strategy because it frees you from absolute dependence on any one country. Achieve that independence, and events or policies where you live can never dominate your life.

Wealthy families have been doing it for centuries. Today, with modern communications, international diversification is within everyone's reach.

International Man's mission is to help you protect your personal freedom and make the most of financial opportunity around the world. Global diversification is at the heart of it. Discovering the best investment opportunities around the world is another. And, ironically, the best opportunities often show up after a government has done its worst to a country. For example, in places like… Greece.

Investor sentiment in Greece is nearing the point of maximum pessimism… the point at which almost nobody wants to buy. Prices of Greek stocks have already crashed headfirst into the pavement, so we may be getting close to the best time to buy. As Baron Rothschild advised: Buy when the blood is in the streets.

That's what crisis investing is all about, and it's enormously profitable.

Seeking out home runs in crisis markets is exactly what Doug Casey and I do in each monthly issue of Crisis Speculator.

Back in 2013 there was another crisis in a Mediterranean country… Cyprus.

Doug and I put our boots to the ground in Cyprus to search the rubble for investment bargains that would be too good to resist. And we found them.

Despite all the ugly headlines, sound, productive, and well-run Cypriot businesses continued to produce earnings and pay dividends. Anyone with a little money and a cool head could have bought their stocks on the ultra-cheap.

One of the Cyprus companies we recommended has more than tripled as of this writing. Another has more than doubled. Two others have come close to a double. Our readers have loved the experience.

We expect that even bigger bargains are emerging nearby, in Greece.

The financial crisis in Greece is not going to destroy the solid companies operating there. But it is going to make their stocks extremely cheap. And that could mean huge profits for you.

For full coverage of this rich profit opportunity, be sure to check out Crisis Speculator by clicking here.

Sjuggerud: These three stocks offer ‘extreme’ yields… plus growth

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 10:31 AM PDT

From Steve Sjuggerud, Editor, True Wealth:

Most investors buy stocks for either growth or income. But in rare cases, you can have both…

Three major companies are paying extreme yields and beating the market this year. They’re large caps you’ve likely heard of before… but probably never realized pay out these kinds of dividends.

Let me explain…

The companies in the table below are true large-cap stocks. They come from different industries and share little in common as businesses. But they all share two traits – they’re paying hefty yields and beating the S&P 500 handily in 2015. Take a look…

Position Ticker Market Cap (Billions) Dividend Yield Price-to-Earnings Ratio Year-to-Date Performance
Blackstone Group BX $49 6.3% 11.8 30%
AT&T T $182 5.4% 14.8 10%
General Motors GM $58 4.0% 8.7 6%
S&P 500 2.0% 18.8 4%
www.stansberryresearch.com

All of these companies pay yields that are at least double the S&P 500. Surprisingly, these companies are also cheap, based on earnings. They trade for discounts of 21%-54% below the S&P 500.

The first of these businesses is Blackstone Group (BX)… which is another great way to play today’s housing boom.

Blackstone is one of the planet’s biggest “alternative” asset managers. The company invests in private equity, real estate, hedge funds, and high-yield credit funds.

Although diversified, much of Blackstone’s profits come from its real estate investments. And it’s those profits that allow the company to pay out big 6.3% dividends to shareholders.

The next two are more common household names…

AT&T (T) is a cable, Internet, and communications giant. It’s not every day you run across a $182 billion company paying out 5%-plus in dividends. Regardless of how AT&T finishes out the year, it’s hard to ignore that kind of income.

The last big income producer is General Motors (GM). GM is one of the world’s largest auto manufacturers. It earns billions of dollars in profits each year and pays a solid 4% dividend right now.

Most importantly, these companies are all outperforming the S&P 500 this year. Blackstone, in particular, is soaring. Take a look…

Not only do these companies pay extremely high yields… but they’re delivering capital gains as well. You haven’t missed it yet, though. They’re still cheaper than the stock market.

It’s rare to find a group of multibillion-dollar companies offering growth and income. But that’s exactly what we have today with these three. If you’re looking for safe income, with upside, check these three names out.

Good investing,

Steve

P.S. If you haven’t seen my warning about a new global currency rule that’s rumored to go into effect this October, I urge you to check out my latest interview. If you own U.S. assets – stocks, bonds, real estate, or just cash in the bank… you must be aware of this huge upcoming change. You can get all the details in my interview right here.

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