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Thursday, July 2, 2015

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Credit Market Warning

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 12:30 PM PDT

Long-awaited signs of danger are materializing…   Submitted by Chris Martenson, Peak Prosperity: There are large signs of stress now present in the credit markets. You might not know it from today’s multi-generationally low interest rates, but other key measures such as liquidity and volatility are flashing worrying signs. Look, we all know that this centrally […]

The post Credit Market Warning appeared first on Silver Doctors.

The Financial RESET & Triple Digit SILVER — CEO Keith Neumeyer

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 12:15 PM PDT

Keith Neumeyer, the outspoken and courageous CEO of First Majestic Silver joins the SGTReport to dissect the obscene levels of precious metals manipulation by the international banking cabal. Neumeyer has led the charge to expose the manipulation of silver via the paper markets and in 2014 suggested that silver mining companies ban together to form their own […]

The post The Financial RESET & Triple Digit SILVER — CEO Keith Neumeyer appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Contrarian idea: It's time to start looking for bargains in Greece

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 11:35 AM PDT

By Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor, InternationalMan:

For the unprepared, it happens like a mugging…

When you hear a central banker or politician deny that something is going to happen to bank depositors, you can almost be certain that it will happen. And probably soon.

Coming from a government official, the real meaning of "No, of course not" is "Could be tomorrow."

There's a reason for the dishonesty. The government needs to take the public by surprise. Otherwise they won't get the results they want from capital controls or a bank holiday.

The term bank holiday is a politician's euphemism. When one happens, you won't be celebrating. You won't be able to access your bank account, and you'll be worried.

How will you get by, and how long will the lockout last? And when it ends, will all your money still be there? Will any of it remain?

Calling the experience a bank holiday is like calling a street mugging a surprise party.

Once the banks are closed – or on "holiday," as the government puts it – the politicians are free to help themselves to as much of the customer deposits (including yours) as they want. It's like an all-you-can-steal buffet.

A bank holiday usually dovetails with capital controls, which are restrictions on the free flow of money out of the country. Capital controls make it hard for the country's remaining wealth to dodge a future mugging.

Bank holidays and capital controls are all about the government maximizing the amount of money available for them to confiscate during a crisis. Pen up the sheep, and they're easier to shear.

It's a common pattern… 1) country in financial trouble, 2) government denials, 3) surprise bank holiday, 4) wealth confiscation, and 5) capital controls.

It's a pattern we've seen repeated in many countries in economic crisis.

We saw it in Cyprus during their banking crisis of 2013. The trap slammed shut without warning on an otherwise ordinary Saturday morning. The government declared a surprise bank holiday. Capital controls and a bank deposit confiscation followed. It occurred despite repeated promises from the highest Cypriot politicians that bank deposits would be safe.

And now we are seeing the same pattern in Greece.

For the past month, Greece's government has been denying that it intends to impose capital controls. Yesterday, Sunday morning, the Greek Finance Ministry repeated the denial yet again. Then on the same day – a few hours later – the Greek government declared a weeklong bank holiday. And they would impose capital controls after all.

But don't worry. The Greek Prime Minister promised that bank deposits would be “completely safe."

Rather than being "completely safe," they are far more likely to be harvested by the Greek government, which is free to do as so many troubled governments have done… take the money and run.

Given Greece's years of chronic financial weakness, none of this should come as a surprise.

There was ample time for any Greek citizen to protect himself from what the government is now doing. But now, with the bank holiday in place, it's too late.

Moving money into something that Greek politicians can't steal with a couple taps on a keyboard – like a Greek bank account – would have bought a large measure of protection.

A bank account in another EU country like Austria, a piece of real estate in South America, some physical gold in Singapore or a brokerage account in Hong Kong would have been just what the doctor ordered.

Most people understand that it's foolish to keep all their eggs in one basket. Yet they fail to go far enough in applying the principle. Diversification isn't just about investing in multiple stocks or in multiple asset classes. Real diversification – the kind that keeps you safe – means holding assets in multiple countries, so that you're not overexposed to the economic and political risks that are present in every country.

The problem is, despite having options available to them, many Greeks had a "this can't happen here" mentality. So they did nothing to prepare. The reality is, what happened in Greece can happen in any country, as it has happened throughout history.

But could it really happen in the US? According to Judge Andrew Napolitano, the troubling answer is YES. The judge is a legal expert. He knows all about bank holidays, capital controls, and other shenanigans politicians pull. The judge has said, "People who have more than $100,000 in the bank are targets for any government that's looking for money to shore up its own inability to manage its finances."

The whole ordeal in Greece is yet another example of why international diversification is so important. It's a prudent strategy because it frees you from absolute dependence on any one country. Achieve that independence, and events or policies where you live can never dominate your life.

Wealthy families have been doing it for centuries. Today, with modern communications, international diversification is within everyone's reach.

International Man's mission is to help you protect your personal freedom and make the most of financial opportunity around the world. Global diversification is at the heart of it. Discovering the best investment opportunities around the world is another. And, ironically, the best opportunities often show up after a government has done its worst to a country. For example, in places like… Greece.

Investor sentiment in Greece is nearing the point of maximum pessimism… the point at which almost nobody wants to buy. Prices of Greek stocks have already crashed headfirst into the pavement, so we may be getting close to the best time to buy. As Baron Rothschild advised: Buy when the blood is in the streets.

That's what crisis investing is all about, and it's enormously profitable.

Seeking out home runs in crisis markets is exactly what Doug Casey and I do in each monthly issue of Crisis Speculator.

Back in 2013 there was another crisis in a Mediterranean country… Cyprus.

Doug and I put our boots to the ground in Cyprus to search the rubble for investment bargains that would be too good to resist. And we found them.

Despite all the ugly headlines, sound, productive, and well-run Cypriot businesses continued to produce earnings and pay dividends. Anyone with a little money and a cool head could have bought their stocks on the ultra-cheap.

One of the Cyprus companies we recommended has more than tripled as of this writing. Another has more than doubled. Two others have come close to a double. Our readers have loved the experience.

We expect that even bigger bargains are emerging nearby, in Greece.

The financial crisis in Greece is not going to destroy the solid companies operating there. But it is going to make their stocks extremely cheap. And that could mean huge profits for you.

For full coverage of this rich profit opportunity, be sure to check out Crisis Speculator by clicking here.

Man Grabbed, Crushed to Death By Factory Robot: “This is Just the Start… Machines Will Take Over Our Lives”

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 11:30 AM PDT

A deadly accident at a Volkswagen plant in Germany led to an assembly line robot grabbing the contractor installing the robot and crushing him against a metal plate.   Submitted by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan: "This is just the start…machines will take over our jobs, lives and world." That was one man's reaction to news that a […]

The post Man Grabbed, Crushed to Death By Factory Robot: "This is Just the Start… Machines Will Take Over Our Lives" appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold Prices Hit 15-Week Low Despite Greek Crisis & Weak US Jobs Data, Bull Market Coming Says BAML

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 11:01 AM PDT

Bullion Vault

Gold Tests Breakdown Line

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 10:41 AM PDT

Non-Farm Payroll: Ignore Headlines – Labor Force Participation Hits New Low

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 10:32 AM PDT

The real story in today's report is the fact that the labor force participation rate hit a low not seen since October 1977:   Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics: The headlines reported that 223k people found jobs last month.  Of course, you have to read into the details to find […]

The post Non-Farm Payroll: Ignore Headlines – Labor Force Participation Hits New Low appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Sjuggerud: Three of the best dividend stocks you can buy today

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 10:31 AM PDT

From Steve Sjuggerud, Editor, True Wealth:

Most investors buy stocks for either growth or income. But in rare cases, you can have both…

Three major companies are paying extreme yields and beating the market this year. They’re large caps you’ve likely heard of before… but probably never realized pay out these kinds of dividends.

Let me explain…

The companies in the table below are true large-cap stocks. They come from different industries and share little in common as businesses. But they all share two traits – they’re paying hefty yields and beating the S&P 500 handily in 2015. Take a look…

Position Ticker Market Cap (Billions) Dividend Yield Price-to-Earnings Ratio Year-to-Date Performance
Blackstone Group BX $49 6.3% 11.8 30%
AT&T T $182 5.4% 14.8 10%
General Motors GM $58 4.0% 8.7 6%
S&P 500 2.0% 18.8 4%
www.stansberryresearch.com

All of these companies pay yields that are at least double the S&P 500. Surprisingly, these companies are also cheap, based on earnings. They trade for discounts of 21%-54% below the S&P 500.

The first of these businesses is Blackstone Group (BX)… which is another great way to play today’s housing boom.

Blackstone is one of the planet’s biggest “alternative” asset managers. The company invests in private equity, real estate, hedge funds, and high-yield credit funds.

Although diversified, much of Blackstone’s profits come from its real estate investments. And it’s those profits that allow the company to pay out big 6.3% dividends to shareholders.

The next two are more common household names…

AT&T (T) is a cable, Internet, and communications giant. It’s not every day you run across a $182 billion company paying out 5%-plus in dividends. Regardless of how AT&T finishes out the year, it’s hard to ignore that kind of income.

The last big income producer is General Motors (GM). GM is one of the world’s largest auto manufacturers. It earns billions of dollars in profits each year and pays a solid 4% dividend right now.

Most importantly, these companies are all outperforming the S&P 500 this year. Blackstone, in particular, is soaring. Take a look…

Not only do these companies pay extremely high yields… but they’re delivering capital gains as well. You haven’t missed it yet, though. They’re still cheaper than the stock market.

It’s rare to find a group of multibillion-dollar companies offering growth and income. But that’s exactly what we have today with these three. If you’re looking for safe income, with upside, check these three names out.

Good investing,

Steve

P.S. If you haven’t seen my warning about a new global currency rule that’s rumored to go into effect this October, I urge you to check out my latest interview. If you own U.S. assets – stocks, bonds, real estate, or just cash in the bank… you must be aware of this huge upcoming change. You can get all the details in my interview right here.

Is The Comex End-Game In Sight?

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 10:00 AM PDT

If the COMEX reports are in fact accurate and bona fide, it would be the ONLY business segment of any of these banks that is reported without any misrepresentation or outright fraud.  The probability of that being the case is 0% using a 100% confidence interval.   Sorry Ted. After years of speculation, is the End-Game in […]

The post Is The Comex End-Game In Sight? appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Rick Rule: This is my favorite opportunity in the oil sector

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 09:34 AM PDT

From Henry Bonner in Sprott’s Thoughts:

“Midstream” oil stocks are this attractive about once every decade, says Rick Rule, Chairman of Sprott U.S. Holdings.

In a recent round-table with Byron King (Agora Financial) and Matt Badiali (Stansberry Research), Rick explained why he’s looking at one segment of the oil sector. You can listen to his full comments here (registration required):

Midstream companies are involved in processing and transportation of oil and gas. These companies have been popular with investors because they may be less risky and volatile than exploration and production companies.

They tend to make money through long-term transportation contracts that are “insulated” from oil price swings.

In particular, Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) own transportation infrastructure such as pipelines and charge oil companies to move oil and gas to market. These companies pass on their revenues to shareholders, which can lead to large dividends with moderate exposure to oil and gas prices.

The last major opportunity for MLPs was in March 2009, after the financial crisis cut down energy prices and stocks. The Alerian MLP index, which tracks 50 prominent companies in the sector, rose 356% from then through September 2014.1

MLPs are not completely independent of oil prices. Since September, the Alerian MLP Index is down around 25%. Last year, Boardwalk Pipeline Partners cut its payout to investors by 80% after it failed to renew its existing contracts with oil producers.2

Rick sees this as a good chance to start buying MLPs as they’re still generating attractive yields. The Alerian MLP Index pays a 6.29% yield as of June 29, versus 2.04% for the broad stock market (as represented by the S&P 500).

“We are seeing returns of 6% cash already, and MLPs will be able to grow their topline free cash flows,” says Rick.

He believes that some MLPs will be able to pay out even more thanks to today’s ultra-low interest rates. MLPs can borrow cheaply to acquire new assets from distressed sellers – groups that are “monetizing” their processing and transportation assets to pay salaries.

MLPs can increase their payouts from here if they act aggressively and use low interest rates to fund acquisitions, says Rick.

Rick also believes there is an opportunity to fund exploration and production in oil and gas, by lending money or acquiring stakes in projects.

Bankers are less willing to lend money for oil production now. As Rick explained, during the last few years where oil prices were high, individual bankers often booked big bonuses for making loans to oil and gas firms. Their bonuses didn’t depend on how well those loans performed over the long haul, so this led to lower standards and excessive credit being extended for oil and gas.

Now that returns are being affected by low oil prices, banks will probably revise their incentive structures, so that individual bankers will not pour as much money into oil and gas.

At the same time, financial regulations known as “Basel III” discourage the largest banks from lending to private companies – like those in the oil and gas sector.

Rick explained how this works:

Banks have different reserve requirements for different classifications of loans.

If Deutsche Bank, which is one of the major capital banks, makes a loan to Shell or Exxon, they have to make a provision for that loan on their balance sheets. They have to set aside 7% or 8% of the value of that loan (in case it goes bad).

By contrast, if they were lending money to a sovereign entity – even Greece, Ireland, or Portugal – the bank doesn’t need to have any provision for that loan so long as they purport to hold that loan to maturity, irrespective of its market valuation in the future.

So a bank can borrow cash from depositors at 1% and lend it out to a sovereign borrower at, say, 3.5%, picking up 2.5% without having to reserve any space on its balance sheet.

So the incentives are increasing for big banks to make sovereign loans as opposed to loans to private companies (where they would have to make higher loss provisions).

Now that banks are less interested in making loans to oil and gas companies, this can be a good opportunity to step in as a lender, says Rick.

You see, some oil and gas companies stand to lose their drilling rights on a property if they do not go through with drilling. In some cases, they may have spent $1 million or more preparing a property for a drill program. That money has gone into administration, exploration, 3D seismic, or geophysical surveys.

That investment will go to waste if the company loses its drilling rights, so investors can obtain favorable terms if they choose to participate, says Rick.

“The industry has ‘down’ cycles. Being aggressive during those down cycles and then profiting during the last three upcycles is what made me rich,” Rick comments.

Want to know more about how to play upcycles and down cycles?

Meet us in Vancouver this summer, at the Sprott-Stansberry Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium. Rick will be hosting the event and speaking with investors at length.

You’ll also hear from well-known investors Eric Sprott, David Harquail, Bill Bonner (my dad), and many others.

Click here to find out more. You can secure your ticket here.

Jim Willie: GUARANTEE Dollar Death Dynamics

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 09:20 AM PDT

The USDollar is on a collision course with imminent death…   By Jim Willie, GoldenJackass.com It is utterly amazing that so many supposedly smart analysts and highly paid wealth managers cannot see the obvious path on which the USDollar treads, limps, and struts proudly, dangerously, and abusively, suspended by numerous false cables and tethers. The USDollar cannot […]

The post Jim Willie: GUARANTEE Dollar Death Dynamics appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold might be near short term bottom

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 09:01 AM PDT

Commodity Trader

Top trader: Stocks are headed lower... Here's how to profit

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 08:28 AM PDT

From Jeff Clark, Editor, Stansberry Short Report:

The stock market is likely headed lower over the next few weeks…

Last week, I told you a “Head and Shoulders Top” pattern was forming on the chart of the S&P 500. This is a bearish pattern that often signals the end of a bull trend and the beginning of a bear trend. And it can lead to large, fast gains for folks willing to bet on the downside.

Now, this pattern is playing out. And traders are getting the chance to profit…

Take a look at this updated chart of the S&P 500…

On Monday, the index broke down from the Head and Shoulders Top pattern. The target for this downside move is about 2,038. But we could see the S&P fall all the way to 1,990 over the next several weeks if we get a particularly hard decline.

Of course, it won’t be a straight shot lower. We’re going to get violent bounces off of oversold conditions.

That’s how traders can profit on the short side.

Traders who want to profit on the short side need to be nimble. They need to take profits when the market gets oversold and is approaching logical support levels… then look to re-short as the index bounces back toward resistance.

For example, traders who shorted the market last week in anticipation of the Head and Shoulders Top pattern playing out should have locked in profits on Monday’s big drop.

Monday’s selloff pushed the S&P 500 to within spitting distance of its 200-day moving average (DMA). The index was oversold and stretched from both its nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) and its 50-DMA.

That was a logical spot to look for a bounce. And that’s what we got yesterday.

The S&P 500 rallied all the way back up to the neckline of the Head and Shoulders Top pattern (near 2,080) on Wednesday morning. It has additional resistance overhead at the nine-day EMA (at 2,090) and the 50-DMA (at 2,105).

These are all good levels for traders to re-establish short positions.

To sum up, the intermediate-term trend for the stock market is now lower. We’ll likely see the S&P 500 fall to 1,990 sometime between now and October.

But in the meantime, traders should take advantage of bounces like we saw yesterday and use them as short-selling opportunities.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

Rick Rule and Porter Stansberry’s Guide to Protecting Your Portfolio from the Ravages of the Currency Wars

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 07:15 AM PDT

Russia, China and the U.S. are in a battle for currency dominance and natural resource stocks have been buffeted as a result. When the dust settles, smart natural resource investors could be the big winners as long as they have taken the right protective measures. In this interview with The Gold Report, Sprott USA Holdings […]

The post Rick Rule and Porter Stansberry’s Guide to Protecting Your Portfolio from the Ravages of the Currency Wars appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Ritholtz on Gold

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 07:01 AM PDT

Biwii

Jim Carrey Blasts California’s Forced Vaccination Law, Calls Governor Jerry Brown A ‘Corporate Fascist’

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 05:00 AM PDT

Actor and comedian Jim Carrey is on two “A lists” now, one as an actor and an “A list” for integrity.  Following Governor Brown’s signing into law an aggressive forced vaccination law, Carrey took to Twitter calling Brown a “Corporate Fascist.”  Full coverage of Carrey’s fiery Tweets about mercury, mandatory vaccines, and the corrupt CDC and […]

The post Jim Carrey Blasts California’s Forced Vaccination Law, Calls Governor Jerry Brown A 'Corporate Fascist' appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold Approaches Targets Near 1162.00 Low

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 04:05 AM PDT

investing

India cuts Gold, Silver import tariff value

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 03:42 AM PDT

For last fortnight, the tariff value of gold was fixed at $385 per 10 grams and silver at $519 per kg.

Mea culpa on OCC derivatives & Citibank silver mystery

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 02:13 AM PDT

I made a mistake on my last post, but in delving deeper it seems Citibank has been engaging in some unusual activity in silver http://research.perthmint.com.au/2015/07/02/mea-culpa-on-occ-derivatives/

Gold – Drops to Near Three Week Low Below $1170

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 01:30 AM PDT

marketpulse

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Weekly High Back in Play

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 01:15 AM PDT

dailyfx

Silver Forecast July 2, 2015, Technical Analysis

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 01:15 AM PDT

fxempire

Gold Forecast July 2, 2015, Technical Analysis

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 01:10 AM PDT

fxempire

Adrian Day's Embarrassment of Riches: Gold Companies Cheap to Buy but Not for Long

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 01:00 AM PDT

Fund Manager Adrian Day believes that the U.S. dollar is fundamentally overvalued and we can expect a devaluation at some point. This is good news for the price of gold. In this interview with The...

Visit the aureport.com for more information and for a free newsletter

Gold Breaks Range Support, S&P 500 Attempts Cautious Recovery

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 12:05 AM PDT

investing

CHARTS : Gold Stocks Break Below 2008 Low

Posted: 02 Jul 2015 12:05 AM PDT

marketoracle

Greek crisis will have to get worse to up gold prices says Edel Tully

Posted: 01 Jul 2015 09:51 PM PDT

UBS metals analyst Edel Tully reckons markets have become bored with the Greek crisis and will have to be convinced it will get much worse before buying gold as a safe haven asset. A ‘no’ vote in the referendum on Sunday and Greek exit from the euro would be sufficient.

Gold has actually drifted down this week as the dollar has surged against the euro, though gold is up in euros. Financial markets had a Black Monday but have recovered since.

Greek disconnect

In a report this week Ms. Tully asked why gold seemed to be so disconnected from the Greek crisis, noting that ‘developments in Greece don’t seem to be impacting gold in any meaningful way,’ compared to ‘how the market has reacted in the past.’

She attributed this trend to ‘headline fatigue’ resulting from heavy coverage of the Greek drama, claiming that ‘the threshold for bad news is higher and it will probably take a lot more to trigger a significant wave of gold safe haven buying.’

Gold price volatility has been on the decline since the beginning of 2015. Ms. Tully only expects more significant movement in gold if there is a rapid deterioration of the situation in Greece over the coming weeks, such as ‘Grexit occurs and there is no credible policy response.’

UBS now projects a 40 per cent chance of Greece leaving the eurozone and a 40 per cent chance of other countries, like Spain and Italy, following suit.

However, it is still hard to rate financial markets anything other than extremely complacent in the face of this high risk of a disaster. It is almost the same as trusting your life to the flip of a coin.

Smart money holds

Traders may be correct in the short term in avoiding precious metals but the tide could turn very fast and for the average investor taking and holding a position still makes sense.

In fact, Ms. Tully and other analysts say one reason for the gold price’s recent stability is precisely because long-term investors are taking this approach.

So while the gold price may look unaffected by the Greek crisis that could change at any moment.

Bill Holter Warns “Greece is Going to Happen HERE!”

Posted: 01 Jul 2015 07:45 PM PDT

Bill Holter joins The Doc for an Exclusive Update on the Greek Crisis, and the Potential for a Full Derivatives CONTAGION, Discussing: Greek problem is not $3 billion, its $3 TRILLION IN DERIVATIVES– Will ISDA Allow Default? Greek default WAS NOT PRICED IN- Why a MASSIVE LIQUIDITY EVENT has been triggered! End Game for Greek […]

The post Bill Holter Warns “Greece is Going to Happen HERE!” appeared first on Silver Doctors.

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Why The Puerto Rico Debt Crisis Is Such A Huge Threat To The U.S. Financial System

Posted: 01 Jul 2015 06:52 PM PDT

Puerto Rico Map On A Globe - Photo by TUBSThe debt crisis in Puerto Rico could potentially cost financial institutions in the United States tens of billions of dollars in losses.  This week, Puerto Rico Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla publicly announced that Puerto Rico’s  73 billion dollar debt is “not payable,” and a special adviser that was recently appointed to help straighten out the island’s finances said that it is “insolvent” and will totally run out of cash very shortly.  At this point, Puerto Rico’s debt is approximately 15 times larger than the per capita median debt of the 50 U.S. states.  Yes, the Greek debt crisis is larger, as Greece currently owes about $350 billion to the rest of the planet.  But only about $14 billion of that total is owed to U.S. financial institutions.  But with Puerto Rico, things are very different.  Just about the entire 73 billion dollar debt is owed to U.S. financial institutions, and this could potentially cause massive problems for some extremely leveraged Wall Street firms.

There is a reason why Puerto Rico is called “America’s Greece”.  In Puerto Rico today, more than 40 percent of the population is living in poverty, the unemployment rate is over 12 percent, and the economy of the small island nation has continually been in recession since 2006.

Yet all this time Puerto Rico has continued to pile up even more debt.  Finally, it has gotten to the point where all of this debt is simply unpayable

Steven Rhodes, the retired U.S. bankruptcy judge who oversaw Detroit’s historic bankruptcy and has now been retained by Puerto Rico to help solve its problems, gave a blunt assessment on Monday.

Puerto Rico “urgently needs our help,” Rhodes said. “It can no longer pay its debts, it will soon run out of cash to operate, its residents and businesses will suffer,” he added.

This is why I hammer on the danger of U.S. government debt so often.  As we see with the examples of Greece and Puerto Rico, eventually a day of reckoning always arrives.  And when the day of reckoning arrives, power shifts into the hands of those that you owe the money too.

It would be hard to understate just how severe the debt crisis in Puerto Rico has become.  Former IMF economist Anne Krueger has gone so far as to say that it is “really dire”

The situation is dire, and I mean really dire,” said former IMF economist Anne Krueger, co-author of the report commissioned by the U.S. territory, which recommended debt restructuring, tax hikes and spending cuts. “The needed measures may face political resistance but failure to address the issues would affect even more the people of Puerto Rico.”

So who is going to get left holding the bag?

As I mentioned at the top of this article, major U.S. financial institutions are very heavily exposed.  Income from Puerto Rican bonds is exempt from state and federal taxation, and so that made them very attractive to many U.S. investors.  According to USA Today, there are 180 mutual funds that have “at least 5% of their portfolios in Puerto Rican bonds”…

The inability of the U.S. territory to repay its debt, combined with the financial crisis in Greece, would have far-reaching implications for financial markets and unsuspecting American investors. Morningstar, an investment research firm based in Chicago, estimated in 2013 that 180 mutual funds in the United States and elsewhere have at least 5% of their portfolios in Puerto Rican bonds.

It is important to keep in mind that many of these financial institutions are very highly leveraged.  So just a “couple of percentage points” could mean the different between life and death for some of these firms.

And unlike what is happening with Greece, the private financial institutions that hold Puerto Rican bonds are not likely to be very eager to “negotiate”.  In fact, the largest holder of Puerto Rican debt has already stated that it is very much against any kind of restructuring

U.S. fund manager OppenheimerFunds, the largest holder of Puerto Rico debt among U.S. municipal bond funds, warned the island it stands ready to defend the terms of bonds it holds, a day after the governor said he wanted to restructure debt and postpone bond payments.

What Oppenheimer is essentially saying is that it does not plan to give Puerto Rico any slack at all.  Here is more from the article that I just quoted above

OppenheimerFunds, with about $4.5 billion exposure to Puerto Rico according to Morningstar, said it believed the island could repay bondholders while providing essential services to citizens and growing the economy. It said it stood ready “to defend the previously agreed to terms in each and every bond indenture.”

“We are disheartened that Governor Padilla, in a public forum, has called for negotiations with other creditors, representing and including the millions of individual Americans that hold Puerto Rico municipal bonds,” a spokesman for Oppenheimer said in a statement.

But Puerto Rico simply does not have the money to meet all of their debt obligations.

So somebody is not going to get paid at some point.

When that happens, those that insure Puerto Rican bonds are also going to take tremendous losses.  The following comes from a recent piece by Stephen Flood

Now, bondholders are at risk as are the funds which hold Puerto Rican bonds and, more importantly, those who insure them in the derivatives market.

Dave Kranzler, from Investment Research Dynamics has warned that there are signs that the Puerto Rico situation may not remain a local crisis for much longer.

He points out that share prices of MBIA, the bond insurers, have been plummeting. MBIA are valued at $3.9 billion whereas their exposure to Puerto Rican debt is around $4.5 billion. Kranzler reckons their exposure could even be multiples of that figure. A default could wipe them out.

He also points out that the firm's largest shareholders are Warburg Pincus, the firm to which Timothy Geithner went after his stint as Treasury Secretary, when he helped paper over the chasms opening up in the financial system.

Did you notice the word “derivatives” in that quote?

Hmmm – who has been writing endless articles warning about the danger of derivatives for years?

Who has been warning that “this gigantic time bomb is going to go off and absolutely cripple the entire global financial system“?

When Puerto Rico defaults, bond insurers are going to be expected to step up and make huge debt service payments to investors.

But this just might bankrupt some of these big bond insurers.  In fact, we have already started to see the stock prices of some of these bond insurers begin to plummet.  The following comes from the Wall Street Journal

Bond insurers MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. are down again Tuesday as concerns over Puerto Rico's ability to repay its debt multiply.

Investors fear that both firms face the potential for steep losses on their promises to backstop billions of Puerto Rico's $72 billion of debt.

MBIA's stock closed down 23% Monday, and fell more than 10% before rebounding Tuesday. By late afternoon, the stock was down 6%. Ambac's stock fell 12% Monday and was off 14% Tuesday.

Of course Puerto Rico is just the tip of the iceberg of the coming debt crisis in the western hemisphere, just like Greece is just the tip of the iceberg of the coming debt crisis in Europe.

So stay tuned, because the second half of 2015 has now begun, and the remainder of this calendar year promises to be extremely “interesting”.

The post Why The Puerto Rico Debt Crisis Is Such A Huge Threat To The U.S. Financial System appeared first on The Economic Collapse.

“Greek Fire” Contagion Spreads Through Europe

Posted: 01 Jul 2015 05:00 PM PDT

Well, brothers, it has finally begun.  The moment that all of us "crazy" stackers have been stacking silver for in the first place, has now arrived: the beginning of the end of Bretton Woods II, is upon us.  Everything is about to change…     Submitted by The Wealth Watchman: For the Greek referendum (which I […]

The post "Greek Fire" Contagion Spreads Through Europe appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Why Sweden’s central banker was beheaded [1719 AD] Scandinavian copper money

Posted: 01 Jul 2015 03:00 PM PDT

Bullion Vault

Gov’t outrage: Another ridiculous U.S. tax that’s hurting consumers

Posted: 01 Jul 2015 11:42 AM PDT

From Eric Peters at EPAutos.com:

Ever wonder why the biggest market for pick-up trucks (that’s us, the U.S.) has so few trucks available?

Yes, yes, there are the big ones – mostly made by the Big Three. But how come the others – smaller brands, smaller trucks – have been so reticent about cashing in on this most lucrative (highest profit margin per vehicle) segment?

Could it be the “chicken tax”?

Never heard of it?

It’s the tax – the tariff – that makes it much more expensive to bring a truck to market in the U.S. that was not made in the U.S.

It was signed into law back in 1963 by Lyndon Johnson as a retaliatory measure directed at France and West Germany, which had imposed tariffs of their own on the importation of U.S. chicken. Hence the name. The measure hit back with tariffs on potato starch, brandy and light trucks imported to the United States, with the object of making all of them more expensive to import.

How much more expensive? How about 25 percent more expensive. Which makes them less profitable to sell here.

Which explains why – in general – they’re not sold here.

Including, ironically, some “domestic” models like the Ford Ranger. Which is a Ford, but no longer made in the USA – and so subject to the tariff. So Ford sells the Ranger pretty much everywhere except here.

But mostly, the tariff affects foreign-brand (as well as foreign-made) medium and compact-sized models like the Toyota HiLux, which is smaller than the Tundra Toyota sells here (and which is made here; now you know why) and also the Mitsubishi Triton, the Mazda B-Series and the new VW Amarok.

Those are just a few of the models most Americans have never heard of – let alone ever test driven.

And it’s not just that American buyers are denied these choices. The cloistered market is less competitive as a result – which means, less innovative. It’s no accident that none of the “majors” – especially GM, Ford and Chrysler (now Fiat-Chrysler) sell a compact truck here. Why should they? There’s no competitive pressure to offer them. Despite the huge demand for these vehicles world-wide (and – formerly – here, too).

Toyota, for instance, has sold more than 16 million HiLuxes.

That’s a lot of trucks.

A lot of potential profit, too.

But when Uncle takes the profit out of the sale, the incentive to sell tends to wilt.

Some manufacturers have taken the radical step of moving operations here. Opening assembly lines in the United States. Which end-runs the tariff because the truck is now considered a “domestic” rather than an import – regardless of the brand on the fender.

This is the real reason why Honda built a plant in Alabama to build the Ridgeline – the company’s first U.S.-available pick-up. And why Toyota built a plant in Texas (truck central) to build the full-size Tundra. Nissan’s Titan pick-up is built in Canton, Mississippi – not Hiroshima, Japan. (Nissan was the first foreign automaker to unbox operations here – in Smyrna, Tennessee, back in 1983.)

And so on.

If you check into it, you’ll find that all of the currently available “import” brand pick-ups are actually made in the USA.

Which is why there are so few – relatively speaking – “import” brand pick-ups available for sale in the USA.

Currently, there are just two medium-sized ones (the Nissan Frontier and the Toyota Tacoma) and two large (1500 series) models (the Nissan Titan and the Toyota Tundra).

That’s it. The smaller outfits can’t afford to build a whole new plant just to sell a new truck. Especially when they already have a plant. But it’s located outside the U.S.

Enter the tariff. Or build a second plant (here) and double their capital costs.

Models that almost certainly would receive a warm welcome – in particular, VW’s Amarok – are denied us because the economics are untenable. The automaker can invest massive sums (it takes about $2-$3 billion to build a new plant from scratch) so as to earn the “made in the USA” badge – and dodge the tariff. But the automaker now faces the prospect of amortizing its capital investment, which may take decades.

Maybe forever.

How many Amaroks would VW have to sell to make back $2-$3 billion?

Shareholders tend not to be enthusiastic about such out-on-a-limb measures.

Or, the automaker can import the vehicle – with the tariff folded into the MSRP. Which renders it more expensive than its home-built rivals and thus a harder sell.

Either way, the automaker loses money on the truck – and that’s not a good way to make it.

That goes for Ford’s Ranger, too…

The popular compact – the last compact truck sold in the United States – is now made in Thailand. Which means it’s no longer economic for Ford to “import” it here, because it’s subject to the tariff.

Thus, American truck buyers get the limited choice of a full-size truck or a mid-sized truck. Either way, they pay more up front for the truck (bigger trucks costing more than smaller trucks) and down the road (bigger trucks using more fuel than smaller trucks). The latter is particularly ironic given all the braying about gas mileage emanating from Washington.

Courtesy of a “protective” tariff that was enacted – so we were told – to help Americans by keeping competitors out of the market.

In fact, the tariff helps the larger automakers at the expense of the smaller – and serves as a way to shield them from competition. The big manufacturers – this includes “foreign” ones like Toyota and Nissan – are generally the only ones that can afford to spend billions to build new plants here and thus are the only ones that do.

Not surprisingly, they – along with Detroit’s Big Three – want to protect their investment.

By denying U.S. consumers the choices they would otherwise have available.

Imagine what the market for small cars would be if a similar tariff existed on not-made-here small cars from Japan and elsewhere. Do you suppose there would more – or fewer choices – available? Would the quality and desirability of the choices available be higher – or lower?

What if Apple Computers’ Chinese-made Macs were slapped with a 25 percent tariff? Would that help American consumers? Make PCs more or less expensive?

It does not – as the saying goes – take a rocket scientist.

The good news is the “chicken tax” may finally be on its way out. Part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal that’s winding its way through Congress would roll back the tariff over a period of years and eventually, eliminate it.

TPP itself is a typical product of the Beltway sausage-making process – and god only knows what else is in the thing. But putting the chicken tax on the chopping block is hard to argue against. It’ll mean more options, truck-wise, and lower costs both to buy and drive ‘em.

If only it hadn’t taken 50-plus years to do it.

Bill Bonner: Greece is the ‘canary in the coal mine’

Posted: 01 Jul 2015 10:57 AM PDT

From Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners:

“Greeks Line Up at Banks; ATMs Run Dry” was the headline over at the Drudge Report on Monday. Versions of it ran throughout the financial media.

Greece is the canary in the coal mine for what could one day happen to your savings.

You’ll recall our prediction: In a crisis, banks will move fast to block access to your money.

First, they will limit withdrawals. Then they will either close their doors or run out of cash.

Capital Controls Have Arrived…

That’s what’s happening in Greece right now…

The showdown going on there for months is reaching a climax.

The Greek government has announced it will put creditor demands to a popular vote.

“Hey, how do you feel about paying our national debt?” they’re going to ask the hoi polloi.

And how do you think the hoi polloi are going to respond?

The best guess is they’re going to say: Let’s not.

Which will leave the banks cut off from new funds… and short of old ones.

Smart depositors figured this out long ago. They took their money out of Greek banks. But the rest of the people are now wising up. In effect, they’re voting with their money – getting it out while they still can.

Naturally, the banks tried to protect the money that isn’t theirs. Piraeus Bank and Alpha Bank limited the amount you could take out. All you could get from a Piraeus ATM, for example, was €600 ($667).

This made people more eager than ever to get their hands on their money. Lines formed at ATMs on Saturday. One banker estimated that €110 million ($122 million) left the banks by 11:30 a.m.

Not all banks are open on Saturday. But even those that were normally open stayed shut.

And now Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras says Greek banks will be shut, and that capital controls will be imposed, until July 7.

Greeks will only be allowed to take out a maximum of €60 ($67) a day. And they’re banned from moving their savings to accounts outside of Greece.

How Not to Manage a Bubble

The sense of panic and impending doom over the weekend was heightened, as the Chinese government took action to halt a stock market plunge.

In the last two weeks, the Shanghai Composite Index has lost 20% of its value. That’s the equivalent of the Dow losing 3,600 points. It’s the kind of thing that makes investors nervous. Or desperate.

If that happens in the U.S. – which it surely will – you can bet your bippy that the feds will intervene. The Chinese are doing the same. They’ve just cut the central bank lending rate to the lowest level ever.

Will that do the trick?

From John Rubino at DollarCollapse.com:

China, meanwhile, has spent the past couple of decades directing an infrastructure build-out that in retrospect was maybe twice as big as it should have been.

Now it’s fiddling with all kinds of imperfectly understood fiscal and monetary levers, trying to maintain a 7% growth rate that is looking more and more fictitious.

Here again, the best way to deal with a bubble is to not let it happen in the first place. The second best way is to let it pop and allow the market to clean up the mess.

The absolute wrong way to manage a bubble is to intervene from the top to keep it going. Look where that has gotten Japan and the U.S.

Stay tuned for more exciting developments…

Regards,

Bill

Crux note: The freezing of accounts in Greece is only a taste of what’s to come… As Bill has been warning, right now in America, the highest levels of government and the banking system are locked in a desperate last stand against a disturbing monetary shock… one that will make what’s happening in Greece seem mild by comparison.

And it could disrupt your life in ways you never thought possible… You will suddenly be locked out of your bank account… unable to withdraw cash or deposit a check… your stocks will swing wildly out of control… your Social Security payments will pile up unopened on your kitchen table… no one will cash them…

To find out what has Bill so worried, go here now.

July is the best month to buy these three household goods

Posted: 01 Jul 2015 10:30 AM PDT

From Dr. David Eifrig, MD, MBA, Editor, Retirement Millionaire:

There’s a right time to buy anything…

In my Retirement Millionaire newsletter, we strive to buy quality assets when they’re selling at bargain prices. But we don’t just stop at investments…

Loopholes in industries’ annual sales cycles, consumer trends, and sales all create windows of opportunity to buy everything – from big-ticket items to groceries – at bargain prices.

And in each Retirement Millionaire issue, we share a few of the best bargain opportunities for the coming month. Today, I’m going to share the most useful items you can usually find on sale in July…

July is a great month to stock up on paint… The summer is one of the slowest times of year for paint sales. In most parts of the U.S., it’s too hot to paint outside… or inside, since you can’t leave the windows open for fresh air. Take advantage of sales on both interior and exterior paint… and do the work for the cooler months.

July is also a great month to buy furniture. Twice a year – in February and August – new furniture (styles for the seasons) hit showrooms. Stores need to clear out older styles to make room for the new, so many have sales around this time July. Retailers like Value City Furniture can offer up to 60% off inventory. Higher-end retailers like Pottery Barn often have savings worth $1,000 or more on furniture costing $4,000.

July is one of the best times of year to buy a new men’s suit… In the summer, retailers need to begin making room for new fall suits, so you can find great deals on spring suits. Look for discounts at retailers like J.C. Penney, Men’s Wearhouse, and Joseph A. Bank.

Here’s to our health, wealth, and a great retirement,

Dr. David Eifrig Jr., MD, MBA

P.S. In my new Big Book of Retirement Secrets, I cover all of the best things to buy for each month… plus other hundreds of other “life hacks,” such as how to get paid to watch TV and eat potato chipshow to get free silver from the U.S. banking system… and even how to get free healthcare and prescriptions. You can get all the details right here.

Is the U.S. the next Greece? Here are three easy steps to protect your savings

Posted: 01 Jul 2015 10:07 AM PDT

From Jeff Clark, Editor, Stansberry Short Report:

The Greek banks are on “holiday” this week.

After the country’s talks with its creditors broke down over the weekend, the Greek government gave bankers a holiday – telling them to close up shop for a few days and take some time off.

In short, the government is saying it’s afraid of what will happen if banks open for business. So, it’s going to keep them closed for a while.

Meanwhile, it’s telling depositors not to panic by saying “come back later and everything will be just fine.”

Of course, the surest way to incite a panic is to tell people not to worry. That’s exactly what’s happening in Greece right now. Customers are lining up outside of their banks, just waiting for the chance to take out their money.

My question to the depositors is: What took you so long?

It’s not like we haven’t known about the troubles plaguing the Greek banking system. The Greek banks have been on life support for years. It is only through the combined generosity and stupidity of European and International Monetary Fund officials that the Greek banks have stayed solvent for this long.

So why would anybody leave all their money in Greek banks? Why aren’t people prepared for this sort of a crisis?

I can only guess that the answer is some combination of faith, hope, and habit.

We have faith that our trusted, elected officials are looking out for our best interests. We hope everything will work out for the best. And we’ve always done it this way, so we’re reluctant to change.

In other words… we’re stupid.

Sorry to be so blunt. But it breaks my heart to watch the news coverage showing elderly Greek citizens lined up in the hot summer sun waiting for the chance to get some of their money out of a closed bank.

And, frankly, I’m more than a little afraid something similar could happen here.

Granted… our banking system is not on life support. But it’s inflicted with the same virus of debt that’s taking down Greece right now (and threatening the banks of Spain, Italy, and Portugal). Maybe we can get through it just fine. Or maybe it’s just a matter of time before we face the same sort of crisis.

Either way, it helps to be prepared for the worst. Just as you prepare for a hurricane, an earthquake, or any other form of natural disaster, you should also prepare for a financial disaster:

  1. Have enough cash on hand to cover necessary expenses for a few days or weeks. Don’t rely exclusively on credit and debit cards.
  2. Spread your money around in different banks and different brokerage firms. That way, if the government limits how much money you can take out of any one bank, you’ll have access to several times that amount.  
  3. Own at least some physical gold and silver as alternatives to the dollar. 

None of these ideas are “extreme” suggestions that are difficult to do. I’m not talking about building a bunker in your backyard and buying weaponry to protect yourself from zombies. This is basic stuff that will get you through a short-term financial emergency.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

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