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Monday, November 10, 2014

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This Little Known Crypto-Asset Might Disrupt The Current Financial Order

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 12:50 PM PST

Originally appeared on Bitcoinomics.Net

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What few know about bitcoin is that it does more than merely facilitate transactions. Its very existence makes possible an entire financial fabric outside the dominant paradigm. If you’ve followed bitcoin, you might have heard already about "Bitcoin 2.0." This movement is a branch of the bitcoin tree, and it is a space where excitement has really ratcheted up recently.

What few know about bitcoin is that it does more than merely facilitate transactions. Its very existence makes possible an entire financial fabric outside the dominant paradigm. If you’ve followed bitcoin, you might have heard already about "Bitcoin 2.0." This movement is a branch of the bitcoin tree, and it is a space where excitement has really ratcheted up recently.

First it was Ethereum which made a splash with news of their plan to transform the crypto-landscape by offering a platform for distributed contracts and DACs. Money was raised and source code has been critiqued and mulled. I was suspicious of Ethereum from the start due to their seeming theatrics and lack of any working product available to the public. If you’ve followed my writings in TDV issues, or elsewhere, then you might have noticed I have not even mentioned Ethereum in writings. Admittedly, part of this is because the ostracization I perceived I would experience. I regret not being more forthcoming but BitShares has given me the confidence, going forward, to be more open about empty press coverage of shell upstarts.

Most recently, moving out in front of Ethereum in terms of first mover advantage, is BitShares, which has somewhat of a shared history with Ethereum. BitShares does not envision bitcoin as crypto-currency, but instead of as a crypto-asset. It is from this purview that the BitShares and BitSharesX environment comes. Bitcoins, in this view, are abstract shares in bitcoin.

BitSharesX introduces the concept of "BitAssets." BitSharesX is significant because nobody has tried to implement such a system before. This system is a high speed, easily accessible Forex/Stock/Commodities/etc market. BTSX could become one of the most exciting developments in cryptographic history.

BitShares is one of the numerous technologies claiming to be "bitcoin 2.0" or "finance 2.0." In essence, this "Bitcoin 2.0" movement represents a movement to leverage the power of globally decentralized consensus and decision making networks as birthed by bitcoin. The notion behind "bitcoin 2.0" technologies is that the idea of bitcoin can be expanded upon and applied to various sectors of the global economy and, particularly, finance. In short, "consensus technology has the power to do for economics what the internet did for information." Theoretically, one such network could arbitrage the combined power of all human computing power on Earth in order to harmonize real-time knowledge discovery and aggregation all done in a trustless, decentralized manner.

Bitcoin is the first autonomous system to use this technology towards a distributed consensus technology that functions as a reliable global payment network. The blockchain is at the core of bitcoin. This cryptographically secured public ledger of the bitcoin network and the associated accounts facilitates the transfer of value between accounts. For the first time in the history of the internet, financial transactions do not need a middle man.

This is what people love about bitcoin. But this technology, as many of bitcoin’s futurists point out, can be expanded. This is what BitShares looks to do with the blockchain. No industry relying on the internet will go untouched by technologies like bitcoin and BitShares. Banking, stock exchanges, lotteries, voting, music, auctions and many other industries will be forever changed by a digital public ledger that makes the creation of so-called "distributed autonomous corporations" (DACs) possible. This system, according to advocates of "bitcoin 2.0", will provide better services at a fraction of the cost incurred by traditional and centralized corporations.

BitShares

According to BitShares, the company has developed technology that "does for business what bitcoin did for money by utilizing distributed consensus technology to create companies that are inherently global, transparent, trustworthy, efficient and most importantly profitable." BitShares developers do not believe a "bitshare" (or a bitcoin) is a crypto-currency. Instead, they believe a more appropriate term for bitcoin and BitShares is "crypto-equity" as such digital assets behave more like stocks than currencies. One of BitShares most publicized products is BitSharesX, a family of DACs designed to implement the business model of a bank and exchange. These distributed autonomous credit unions feature funds that can be transferred in seconds anywhere in the world with more privacy and security than a Swiss bank account.

While acting as a bank, BitSharesX also function as an exchange where currencies, commodities, and stock derivatives can be traded with most of the features used by professional traders including shorts and options. Unlike modern banks, you will be able to hold your balance as denominated in gold, silver, oil, or other commodities in addition to the national currencies. BitSharesX charges per transactions and these "transaction fees" are paid to delegates and then to shareholders via a built in "Burn Rate." The main innovation of bitcoin – an "irrevocable decentralized automated consensus forming" – makes this possible. The BitSharesX White Paper was written by Daniel Larimer, Charles Hoskinson and Stan Larimer.

The paper was called "A Peer-to-Peer Polymorphic Digitral Asset Exchange." The project has changed quite a bit since that original paper and received much attention in August 2013 when CoinDesk ran a piece on it and the project was announced on the BitcoinTalk forums. BitShares X is an experiment in prediction markets. The decentralized bank and exchange is powered by the decentralized transaction ledger, which is secured not by SHA-256 but by DPOS in order to create digital assets much like bitcoin. BitSharesX has shares that can be transferred between user accounts just like bitcoin. BitShares X does something bitcoin currently does not – implements a business model similar to existing banks or brokerages. BitSharesX creates BitUSD by lending it into existence backed by collateral, similar to modern banking.

Innovations

  1. BitSharesX utilizes Transfer Invisibly To Any Name (TITAN) and Delegated Proof of Stake (DPOS).
  2. represents a new blockchain based consensus algorithm that has sound block creation economics, fast confirm times, zero money supply inflation, all while Delegated Proof of Stake (DPOS)maintaining centralization in a consensus based way to give back value to stake holders.
  3. Transfer Invisibly To Any Name (TITAN) - The new blockchain based gold standard in security and privacy. For further explanation please refer below.
  4. Market pegged assets - Now collateralized assets will be created by a mechanism similar to a prediction market. This will allow participants to keep their deposit denominated in foreign currencies and commodities.
  5. A secure login mechanism for internet services. Now use your registered BTSX name anywhere that supports the stand
  6.  Order Matching Algorithm

markmaker

BitSharesX utilizes a non-traditional order matching algorithm. The algorithm will always present the buyer exactly what they ask for instead of traditional order matching which gives the buyer at least what they ask for and sometimes more than they asked for.

Delegated Proof of Stake (DPOS)

DPOS is a method of securing a crypto-currency network. DPOS uses a layer of technological democracy to offset the negative effects of centralization. What’s useful about the Delegated proof of stake process nullifies possible negative impacts of centralization through the use of delegates. 101 delegates sign off on the block and are voted on by everyone using the network via each transaction made.

DPOS utilizes a decentralized voting process designed to be more democratic than comparable systems. Instead of eliminating a need for trust, like bitcoin attempts, DPOS puts safeguards in place in order to ensure that those trusted with signing blocks on behalf of the network are doing so correctly and without bias. DPOS also gets rid of the need to wait until a certain number of untrusted nodes have verified a transaction before it can be confirmed. This means increased transaction times. DPOS allows BitShares to transact as fast as Visa and Mastercard, with added security of cryptology.

BitShares does not depend on decentralization but instead on "controlled centralization." This differs than other methods of securing crypto-assets.

In a delegated proof of stake system centralization still occurs, but it is controlled. Unlike other methods of securing crypto-currency networks, every client in a DPOS system has the ability to decide who is trusted rather than trust concentrating in the hands of those with the most resources. DPOS allows the network to reap some of the major advantages of centralization, while still maintaining some calculated measure of decentralization. This system is enforced by a fair election process where anyone could potentially become a delegated representative of the majority of users.
Precedent

Overstock.co is looking to get into the bitcoin 2.0 space, as that corporation plans to create the sort of corporate stock platform based on bitcoin described above in the BitShares platform. The plan of such bitcoin 2.0 platforms is to dethrone the stock market. Overstock recently unveiled that the firm is looking to issue "cryptosecurity" to potential investors. It is like the NASDAQ or New York Stock Exchange but decentralized, just like BitShares.

In the last week, BitShares has doubled. The technology can be downloaded at Bitshares-X.org and shares can be purchased at Bter.com for bitcoin.

Originally appeared on Bitcoinomics.Net

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Gold and miners soar on huge volume

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 12:00 PM PST

Much happened on Friday in gold and mining stocks, and the key question is this: does this strength prove that the bottom is in?

The Negative Relationship Between Gold and the U.S. Dollar

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 12:00 PM PST

SunshineProfits

If Everything Is Just Fine, Why Are So Many Really Smart People Forecasting Economic Disaster?

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 11:58 AM PST

Apocalyptic Disaster - Public DomainThe parallels between the false prosperity of 2007 and the false prosperity of 2014 are rather striking.  If we go back and look at the numbers in the fall of 2007, we find that the Dow set an all-time high in October, margin debt on Wall Street had spiked to record levels, the unemployment rate was below 5 percent and Americans were getting ready to spend a record amount of money that Christmas season.  But then the very next year the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression shook the entire planet and everyone wondered why most people never saw it coming.  Well, now a similar pattern is unfolding right before our eyes.  The Dow and the S&P 500 both hit record highs on Monday, margin debt on Wall Street is hovering near record levels, the unemployment rate has ticked down a little bit and Americans are getting ready to spend more than 600 billion dollars this Christmas season.  The truth is that the economy seems pretty stable for the moment, and most people cannot even imagine that an economic collapse is coming.  So why are so many really smart people forecasting economic disaster in the near future?

For example, just consider what the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center is saying.  This is an organization with a tremendous economic forecasting record that goes all the way back to the Great Depression.  In fact, it predicted ahead of time the financial trouble and the recession that would happen in 2008.  Well, now this company is forecasting that there is a 65 percent chance that there will be a global recession by the end of next year...

In 1929, a businessman and economist by the name of Jerome Levy didn't like what he saw in his analysis of corporate profits. He sold his stocks before the October crash.

Almost eight decades later, the consultancy company that bears his name declared "the next recession will be caused by the deflating housing bubble." By February 2007, it predicted problems in the subprime-mortgage market would spread "to virtually all financial markets." In October 2007, it saw imminent recession -- the slump began two months later.

The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, based in Mount Kisco, New York, and run by Jerome's grandson David, is again more worried than its peers. Its half-dozen analysts attach a 65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the U.S. by the end of next year.

Could they be wrong?

It's certainly possible.

But I wouldn't bet against them.

John Hussman is another expert that is warning of financial disaster on the horizon.  He believes that we are experiencing a massive stock market bubble right now and that stocks are approximately double the value that they should be...

If you look at corporate profits and especially corporate profit margins, they're one of the most cyclical and mean-reverting series in economics. Right now, we have corporate profits that are close to about 11% of GDP, but if you look at that series you will find that corporate profits as a share of GDP have always dropped back to about 5.5% or below in every single economic cycle including recent decades, including not only the financial crisis but 2002 and every other economic cycle we have been in.

Right now stocks as a multiple of last year's expected earnings may look only modestly over valued or modestly richly valued. Really if you look at the measures of valuation that are most correlated to the returns that stocks deliver over time say over seven years or over the next 10 years the S&P 500 in our estimation is about double the level of valuation that would give investors a normal rate of return.

Could you imagine the chaos that would ensue if stocks really did drop by 50 percent?

Well, Hussman says that this is precisely what must happen in order for stock prices to return to historical norms...

Right now, like I say, we are looking at stocks that have been pressed to long-term expected returns that are really dismal. But more important than that, in every market cycle that we've seen with the mild exception of 2002, we've seen stocks price revert back to normal rates of return. In order to get to that point from here, we would have to have equities drop by about half.

If that does happen, it will make the crisis of 2008 look like a Sunday picnic.

Meanwhile, other very prominent thinkers are also warning that an economic nightmare is rapidly approaching.

Economic cycle theorist Martin Armstrong foresees major economic problems in 2015 which will ultimately lead to "civil unrest"  in 2016...

It looks more and more like a serious political uprising will erupt by 2016 once the economy turns down. That is the magic ingredient. Turn the economy down and you get civil unrest and revolution.

And of course there are a whole lot of other economic cycle theorists that are forecasting that we are about to experience a massive economic downturn as well.  For much more on this, please see this article and this article.

What is truly frightening is that we have never even come close to recovering from the last economic crisis.  One poll that was taken just prior to the recent election found that only 28 percent of Americans said that their families were doing better financially.  In addition, here are some more survey numbers about how Americans are feeling about the economy...

According to voter exit polls conducted by CNN, 78% said they are worried about the economy, with 69% saying that, in their view, economic conditions are not good. 65% responded that the country is on the wrong track vs. only 31% who believed that it is headed in the right direction.

Even though we are repeating so many of the same patterns that we experienced back in 2007, we are doing so with a fundamentally weaker economy.  The last crisis did a tremendous amount of permanent damage to us.  For an extensive look at this, please see my previous article entitled "12 Charts That Show The Permanent Damage That Has Been Done To The U.S. Economy".

And there are lots of signs that much of the planet is already entering another major economic slowdown.  In a recent article, Brandon Smith summarized some of these.  He says that we are currently witnessing "the last gasp of the global economy"...

Global exports, and thus consumer demand, are plunging. Germany, the only pillar left to prop up the failing European Union, has experienced a severe decline in exports not seen since 2009.

China, the largest exporter and importer in the world, and Chinese companies, have been caught in a number of instances using fraudulent invoices to artificially inflate their own export numbers, in some cases reporting 50% more exported goods than had actually existed.

China's manufacturing has also declined for the past five months, exposing the nature of its inflated export stats and indicating a global slowdown.

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of global shipping rates for raw goods, and thus a measure of demand for shipping, continues to drag along near historic lows.

The U.S. consumer (the only economic asset the U.S. has besides the dollar's world reserve status), has seen declines in spending as well as wages.

In the meantime, long term jobless Americans continue to fall off welfare rolls by the millions, making unemployment numbers look good, but the overall future picture look terrible as participation rates dissolve into the ether of government statistics.

How is such poverty being hidden? Foodstamps. Plain and simple. Nearly 50 million Americans now subsist on food stamp programs today, and this number shows no signs of dropping. In states like Illinois, two people sign up for food assistance for every citizen that happens to find a job.

From time to time, I get accused of "spreading fear" and of being obsessed with "doom and gloom".

But that is not the case at all.

I actually want our economy to stay stable for as long as possible.  Many Americans don't realize this, but even the poorest of us live in luxury compared to much of the rest of the world.  It would be wonderful if we could all live out our lives in peace and quiet and safety.

Unfortunately, it is simply not going to happen.

And it does not take an expert to see what is coming.

Anyone with half a brain should be able to see the economic disaster that is approaching.

There is hope in understanding what is happening and there is hope in getting prepared.  Millions of Americans that are willingly blind to our problems are going to have their lives absolutely destroyed when they get blindsided by the coming crisis.  So please use this brief period of relative stability to get prepared and to warn others.

Once this false bubble of hope runs out, all of our lives are going to dramatically change.

The Next Crash in 2016

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 10:49 AM PST

For the past two years (more or less) readers have read warnings that a horrific economic collapse is brewing across the Western world. It will be the final collapse for these regimes, as none of these economies will be able to survive this coming cataclysm in their present form.

There is no prognostication involved here as the "warning signs" that a collapse is coming couldn't be more obvious if they were laid-out on a road map. Worse, we know (for a multitude of reasons) that the Next Crash will be much more severe than the economic collapse which preceded it (the Crash of '08), because nothing has been fixed since that previous crisis.

Indeed, our governments have done nothing since that time except more of all of the economic policies (i.e. mistakes) which caused the last crash:

a) The debt-bubbles are now much larger. The U.S. and UK national debts have more than doubled since 2007. Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio is higher now than in the 1980's, when it was openly acknowledged as being in "a debt crisis".

b) The asset-bubbles are now much larger. The Dow Jones Bubble-Index has nearly tripled since its bottom in 2009, and it was not allowed to fully deflate during the last, manufactured crash. After seven years of near-zero interest rates; Western real estate markets are all ridiculously unstable bubbles, described previously as "history's greatest wealth trap".

c) Unemployment continues to soar. Permanent ("structural") unemployment across the Western world now amounts to roughly 100 million people.

Then there is the money-printing. Even our catastrophic debt levels, and permanent, ultra-extreme interest rates pale in comparison to this monetary insanity.

While other Western regimes haven't entirely duplicated the extreme, exponential curve represented by U.S. money-printing, the trend is identical. It has to be, because all of our (traitor) governments have publicly declared they are pursuing a policy of "competitive devaluation"racing to see which one can drive their currency to worthlessness first via over-printing.

The chart above is the mathematical representation of the phrase "out of control". It does not represent a currency in danger of hyperinflation. It represents a currency which has already been hyperinflated. So why has the value of these (worthless) Western fiat currencies not already collapsed?

Could Gold Equities Bottom at 2008 Credit Crisis Lows?

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 10:18 AM PST

GoldStockTrades

Gold bottom closing in?

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 10:16 AM PST

The sell-off in precious metals intensified over the past week.

Volcanic Eruption: India & Eurasian Central Banks Tag Team the Western Bankers

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 10:14 AM PST

The record high investment demand of silver and gold, coupled with monstrous central bank purchases, is putting the hurt on the "just in time" precious metal-delivery system the bullion banks have been operating for many years.
These banks are being caught in a pincer movement, which are once again threatening their hallowed, price-setting mechanisms.
There's growing evidence that the system's widening imbalance between supply and demand is again becoming critical. The amount of silver and gold that Western central and bullion banks are able to bring to the market is growing more and more inadequate.
As long as the cartel can make timely deliveries to all the parties who want to buy silver, then this silver price suppression scheme will continue.  We will only see a freed silver price (as we nearly did in 2011) when they take silver's contractual price (paper price) to levels which cannot be adequately delivered to both investors and industrial users alike.
With each and every Comex-Open, silver price-pummeling, that day grows ever closer.

Click here for more on Eurasian Central Bankers Tag-Teaming the Western Bankers:

Volcanic Eruption, Pt. 2: India & Eurasian Central Banks Tag Team the Western Bankers

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 10:10 AM PST

The record high investment demand of silver and gold, coupled with monstrous central bank purchases, is putting the hurt on the "just in time" precious metal-delivery system the bullion banks have been operating for many years. These banks are being caught in a pincer movement, which are once again threatening their hallowed, price-setting mechanisms. There's growing […]

The post Volcanic Eruption, Pt. 2: India & Eurasian Central Banks Tag Team the Western Bankers appeared first on Silver Doctors.

It begins: German bank charging NEGATIVE interest to its customers

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 09:55 AM PST

Miguel de Cervantes' novel Don Quixote is brilliantly entertaining.  But the modern-day monetary equivalent is not so much. Central bankers today have an equally delusional view of the world.   Just three months ago, Mario Draghi (President of the European Central Bank) embarked on his own Quixotic folly by taking certain interest rates into NEGATIVE […]

The post It begins: German bank charging NEGATIVE interest to its customers appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Human Civilization Was Built on This One Simple Premise. Now it’s Broken.

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 09:30 AM PST

Historically, the progress of civilization has been based on one simple rule: produce more than you consume. This is the foundation of civilization. Today we turned that completely upside-down.  The 'rich' countries of today consume far more than they produce. Governments act as if they can spend interminably without consequence, and they make up the difference […]

The post Human Civilization Was Built on This One Simple Premise. Now it's Broken. appeared first on Silver Doctors.

These forecasters predicted the housing meltdown. Here's what they're thinking now.

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 08:40 AM PST

From Bloomberg: 

In 1929, a businessman and economist by the name of Jerome Levy didn’t like what he saw in his analysis of corporate profits. He sold his stocks before the October crash.

Almost eight decades later, the consultancy company that bears his name declared “the next recession will be caused by the deflating housing bubble.” By February 2007, it predicted problems in the subprime-mortgage market would spread “to virtually all financial markets.” In October 2007, it saw imminent recession − the slump began two months later.

The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, based in Mount Kisco, New York, and run by Jerome’s grandson David, is again more worried than its peers. Its half-dozen analysts attach a 65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the U.S. by the end of next year.

That call runs counter to the forecasts of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The two banks posit an expansion that has plenty of room to run.

“Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggests movement toward a 2015 downturn,” chairman David Levy told clients in an Oct. 23 edition of a monthly forecasting report, which at over 60 years purports to be the oldest of its kind.

Why the gloom? Levy argues the U.S. and many advanced economies still have balance-sheet excesses exposing them to renewed financial crisis. There is limited room for policy makers to reverse any slump, and low inflation risks tipping into deflation in many parts of the world.

U.S. Exposure

While the U.S. is doing relatively well, Levy is worried that at about 13 percent of gross domestic product, U.S. exports represent their largest share ever.

American companies also are getting a historically large proportion of earnings from abroad and households are vulnerable to any bear market because their ratio of stocks to disposable income is higher than at any point aside from the start of this century, he said.

Granted, there have been some misfires. In September 2010, Levy told Bloomberg Television that he saw a 60 percent chance of another U.S. recession. Instead the world’s largest economy has gained in strength.

The upshot of the latest forecast is that even if a slump is avoided, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero until the next decade, according to Levy.

“Without first strengthening substantially, we think it highly unlikely that global financial stability will hold together long enough for the Fed to signal and execute a rate increase,” he said.

Gold, Economic Theory and Reality: A Conversation with Alan Greenspan

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 08:15 AM PST

When Dr. Alan Greenspan became chairman of the Federal Reserve, he moved from the world of rhetorical economics to the world of action. His most recent memoir, “The Map and the Territory 2.0: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting,” attempts to make sense of how the financial crisis of 2008 came to be […]

The post Gold, Economic Theory and Reality: A Conversation with Alan Greenspan appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold and silver: A capped recovery

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 07:53 AM PST

For the moment, we will continue to see a fragile economy battling out to sustain the ever rising equity prices.

Gold rigging settlement starts with UBS

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 07:34 AM PST

Suspicions that the price of precious metals are frequently manipulated by a few international banks were further confirmed over the weekend.

Silver set to outperform gold

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 07:23 AM PST

The white metal is finding increased demand from jewelers in India. Investors too are looking more interested to make long-term investments in silver.

Swiss gold watch threatens euro peg

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 07:17 AM PST

Switzerland's referendum on boosting gold reserves is already increasing pressure on the franc's cap against the euro, even as polls show voters remain undecided.

Metals market update for November 10

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 06:46 AM PST

Gold climbed $31.80 or 2.8% to $1,175.30 per ounce Friday and silver rose $0.29 or 1.88% at $15.74 per ounce. Gold finished up 0.25% for the week and silver finished down 2.60%.

Impure Indian jewelry prompts caution

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 06:36 AM PST

India''s leading precious metals refiner has stated that not all gold jewelry sold in India are as pure as the sellers promise it to be.

Gold rebounds on physical demand, US dollar weighs

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 06:00 AM PST

Macro environment and forex are bearish for gold with first policy rate hike by US Fed expected in June this year. Barclays said rate hikes will remain a key hurdle for gold in the near future.

Gold Rigging Settlement With UBS - Other Banks To Follow

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 05:04 AM PST

gold.ie

With gold benchmark fixed, OTC trade next on the list

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 05:01 AM PST

More than $5 trillion worth of gold transactions are made over the counter in London every year.

How will gold prices regain their mojo?

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 04:48 AM PST

Stock market analysts are trampling on the gravestone of gold again today. They’ve been doing this on-and-off for more than a decade of gold outperforming equities. Current gold price weakness is an ideal moment to put the boot in.

On today’s ‘Single Best Chart,’ Scarlet Fu examines the price of gold. StockTwits co-founder and chairman Howard Lindzon also speaks on ‘Bloomberg Surveillance’…

Gold Rigging Settlement With UBS – Other Banks To Follow

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 04:36 AM PST

Gold Rigging Settlement With UBS – Other Banks To Follow

 

Suspicions that the price of precious metals are frequently manipulated by a few international banks were further confirmed over the weekend. UBS agreed to settle with various international regulatory bodies investigating rigging in foreign exchange and precious metals markets.

Manipulation of markets can work effectively in the short term. However, in the long term prices will be dictated by the global supply and the global demand of 7 billion people, many in Asia who believe in gold as a store of wealth. Not to mention, sovereign central banks such as the People's Bank of China and the Russian central bank – who also believe in gold as an important monetary asset.  

 

While failing to admit wrongdoing one person familiar with UBS’s internal probe said that the bank found "a small number of potentially problematic incidents at its precious metals desk,” reports the Financial Times:

UBS is expected to strike a settlement over alleged trader misbehaviour at its precious metals desks with at least one authority as part of a group deal over forex with multiple regulators this week, two
people close to the situation said. They cautioned that the timing of a precious metals deal could still slip to a date after the forex agreement.

Regulators around the world have alleged that traders at a number of banks have colluded and shared information about client orders to manipulate prices in the $5.3 trillion a day forex market. UBS has previously disclosed that it launched an internal probe of its precious metals business in addition to its forex investigation. It declined to comment for this article.

Unlike at other banks, UBS's precious metals and forex businesses are closely integrated. The business units have joint management and the bank's precious metals staff – who mainly trade gold and silver – sit on the same floor as the forex traders.

A small number of problematic incidents in precious metals trading, a small number of problems in forex trading, some problems in LIBOR … It seems that major banks have quite a large amount of small numbers of rigging problems.

While UBS have agreed to settle with regulators, the victims of price manipulation- mining companies and people who have bought precious metals in recent years and incurred financial losses – will receive not a penny. Nor is there any way for them the get to the bottom of what actually occurred.

It is important to remember the context of this settlement. Those who have voiced concerns that precious metals markets are being rigged have been dismissed as conspiracy theorists for years.

The Gold Anti Trust Action Committee or GATA have been very vocal and most prominent in this regard.

Yet, the so called conspiracy 'theories' are being proven to be real conspiracies by banks.

Former advisor to President Reagan and Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts pointed out over the weekend how the smashes on precious metals, similar to what happened last week, are executed.

Futures contracts representing vast quantities of gold, up to forty tonnes worth, are dumped onto the electronic futures market over the course of a few minutes. This frequently happens after trading in Asia has finished and Europe is not yet open for business. In other words – at a time when the least amount of traders are available to buy. This guarantees a precipitous fall in the price.

Dr. Roberts quite reasonably surmises that this is an act of blatant manipulation to force prices down.

It smacks of either arrogance or desperation that even as the outcome of investigations by regulatory bodies into the manipulation of gold and silver prices are beginning to be made public such displays of manipulation should occur.

Manipulation can be effective in the short term. However, prices will eventually be dictated by real world forces of supply and demand for physical precious metals. This has been seen throughout history and was seen as recently as the 1960's and the failure of the London Gold Pool which gave rise to the bull market of the 1970's.

Acclaimed writer of the Dow Theory letters, Richard Russell observed the strong surge in precious metals prices on Friday and saw it as a positive indicator suggesting further gains are likely.

The sage ninety-year-old and respected writer of one of the oldest investment newsletters in the world, wrote that he thinks “big money sees QE4 ahead and is protecting itself.”

Given the significant macroeconomic, systemic, geopolitical and indeed monetary risks of today, owning physical gold coins and bars as insurance remains prudent and will again reward those who take a long term view.

Access 7 Key Bullion Storage Must Haves here

MARKET UPDATE
Today's AM fix was USD 1,172.00, EUR 938.20 and GBP 737.25 per ounce.
Friday's AM fix was USD 1,145.00, EUR 923.39 and GBP 723.17 per ounce.

Gold climbed $31.80 or 2.8% to $1,175.30 per ounce Friday and silver rose $0.29 or 1.88% at $15.74 per ounce. Gold finished up 0.25% for the week and silver finished down 2.60%.


Gold in U.S. Dollars – 1 Year (Thomson Reuters)

Gold surged 3.2% on Friday as market participants adjudged the recent sell off excessive and bought the dip. The gains may have also been due to a short covering rally.

Spot gold was down 0.7% at $1,168.80 an ounce at 1200 GMT. Gold bullion has built on Friday's gains and is marginally lower this morning after Friday's sharp gains. Friday’s U.S. payrolls data was slightly lower than expectations and may contributed to safe haven buying and the gains .


Gold in U.S. Dollars – 10 Year (Thomson Reuters)

Silver was down 0.6% at $15.68 an ounce, spot platinum was down 0.2% at $1,210.25 an ounce, and spot palladium was down 0.1% at $766.97 an ounce.

Futures trading volume was double the average for the past 100 days for this time of day, Bloomberg data showed.

Possibly the single most important benchmark of global gold demand today remains gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE).

Last week saw a very robust week for Chinese demand despite talk of weak demand and low premiums in China. For the week ending October 31, there were withdrawals of 47.5 tonnes for the week. This means that the world's largest gold buyer continues to be headed for annual gold demand of some 2,000 tonnes.

Manipulation of markets can work effectively in the short term (see above). However, in the long term prices will be dictated by the global supply and the global demand of 7 billion people, many in Asia who believe in gold as a store of wealth.

Not to mention, sovereign central banks such as the People's Bank of China and the Russian central bank – who also believe in gold as an important monetary asset.

Get Breaking News and Updates on the Gold Market Here 

Gold may attack $1,190 or resume fall

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 04:16 AM PST

The gold price rallied forcefully on Friday largely as a result of short covering, reports Julian Phillips.

Gold and silver price rout far from over - Reuters poll

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 02:04 AM PST

Analysts and traders surveyed by Reuters predict prices could fall to $1,000/oz by the end of the year.

Events Impacting The Gold And Silver Price In The Week Of November 10th

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 02:02 AM PST

In this article, we summarize the key events of the running week that could have an impact on the price of gold and silver price because of trading in COMEX futures.

Over the last week, between November 3d and 7th, both gold and silver went steeply lower before rebounding sharply on Friday 7th. For now, this seems to be a V-bottom on the making, like the U.S. stock indexes did mid-October of this year. Mind the next few days are key as there MUST be follow-through to the upside, otherwise the V-bottom will be invalid.

Over the last two weeks, when both gold and silver started to move sharply down, the primary driver has been the US dollar, which has surged higher following last week's hawkish FOMC statement and increasingly more dovish central banks elsewhere in G10. The Bank of Japan's surprise decision to expand its asset purchases program last week was followed by a dovish European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. At the follow up monthly news conference, Mario Draghi said the ECB is prepared to act more aggressively to combat deflation threats if needed and that the policy makers were unanimous on this view. He also said that the ECB's Governing Council expects the central bank's balance sheet to reach the early 2012 levels, implying an increase of up to €1 trillion. The net effect of the BoJ and ECB announcements has been positive for not only the US dollar, but also the global equity markets. Thus this has weighed on safe-haven demand.

For the week commencing November 10th, there are some key economic data coming both from the U.S. and European Union. There is only one formal Central Bank statement expected, i.e. one from Governor Mark Carney in the UK on Wednesday; he will talk about the quarterly inflation report. Mainly the data on Friday have the potential to cause some moves in the markets and metals.

Below is a more detailed calendar of key economic data in key markets. They are not necessarily driving gold and silver prices, but could cause price volatility. As evidenced by the calendar, the inflation data out of Europe could be a catalyst for a gold price change.

gold price drivers week 10 november 2014 price

 

Note: The primary focus of our website is to report on the different aspects of the gold market: fundamentals, economic and monetary analysis, basic technical analysis. Our view on the real price setting in the gold and silver market differs from the mainstream view. Price changes happen to coincide with events or announcements; mainstream media are used to report a relationship between both. However, we believe that the real price setting for the time being is taking place in the COMEX futures market. Market expert Ted Butler does an outstanding job analyzing the weekly evolution in the COMEX market and how it affects price setting.

Something’s wrong with the iron ore narrative

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 01:34 AM PST

The scale of the price collapse has been breath-taking and the market is in a place it was not supposed to be, says Andy Home.

Frank Holmes Talks No-Drama Investment Strategy

Posted: 10 Nov 2014 12:00 AM PST

Frank Holmes' advice to investors? Chill. In his interview with The Gold Report, the veteran commodities investor shared some strategies that help him "sit back and stay balanced," namely by...

Visit the aureport.com for more information and for a free newsletter

Indian Gold Reserves. Forgotten History! New Opportunity?

Posted: 09 Nov 2014 10:30 PM PST

2ndLook

Gold, Peace and Prosperity

Posted: 09 Nov 2014 10:00 PM PST

Mises.org

Negative gold leasing rates are tugging like a string on a brick for gold prices and the Swiss referendum will snap it

Posted: 09 Nov 2014 09:16 PM PST

Gold prices will shoot dramatically higher if the Swiss gold referendum passes on November 20th because it will be the final release for negative gold leasing rates that are pushing for higher prices like a brick being pulled on a string, and only held back by the massive manipulation of the market by the global central banks.

The Bank of Japan’s QE9 and the coordinated hit on gold is just the latest example that even the dimmest of doubters ought to be able to understand. But what is happening with gold leasing rates is not a new phenomenon. They are pulling like a string on a brick with the inevitable sudden movement to come.

Leasing rates

Gold leasing rates first turned negative in July 2012. Negative leasing rates mean the supply of gold is so tight that dollars are being used as collateral to borrow gold rather than gold to borrow money. Physical gold demand has surged in recent years particularly in China despite and mainly because of the price fall engineered by the central banks.

Basically the supply of gold has been pulling in the opposite direction to demand for gold. There is not enough available for leasing so the return on leasing has gone negative to discourage it. Normally that would mean the gold price would go up.

What you are looking for then is the tipping point. What will change to make gold leasing rates positive and send the price up? Really this just has to be a ground shaking event such as the Swiss gold referendum on November 20th. It could be enough even if it does not pass.

‘No’ might still be enough

How would that work? Well what if a high proportion of Swiss citizens do vote ‘yes’ for gold. Can the Swiss Central Bank ignore this in its future policy deliberations? Probably not, unless it wants to have another referendum in the near future. It will still have to change its reserves policy somewhat towards gold and other central banks will follow, or show their hand at having already bought gold.

The other analogy to consider with gold leasing and gold prices is the proverbial boy with his finger in the dyke holding back a flood. The flood is right there in front of your eyes but it has not happened yet.

Gold prices are set to catch fire soon.

*Breaking: UBS To Settle Charges on Gold/Silver Manipulation Activities

Posted: 09 Nov 2014 06:00 PM PST

UBS has reportedly agreed Sunday to settle charges that it engaged in manipulation of the gold & silver markets.  Was Friday’s $40 move higher in gold driven by insiders – i.e. the banks- who knew that the UBS gold/silver manipulation settlement deal was imminent over the weekend?? Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, Investment […]

The post *Breaking: UBS To Settle Charges on Gold/Silver Manipulation Activities appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Harvey Organ Weekend Update: Banksters Cannot Cover Silver Shortfall!

Posted: 09 Nov 2014 05:24 PM PST

GLD loses 5.68 tonnes of gold inventory/Silver inventory remains constant/huge rise in gold and silver today.  Gold $1177.00 wow!! something big is going on behind the scenes!! It looks like our banker friends are timid with respect to silver.  The bankers just cannot cover their shortfall. Let's head immediately to see the major data points […]

The post Harvey Organ Weekend Update: Banksters Cannot Cover Silver Shortfall! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

US Mint Caught Totally Off Guard By EPIC Wave of Silver Demand- Physical Market Screams No Mas!

Posted: 09 Nov 2014 05:05 PM PST

T. Ferguson joins The Doc & Eric Dubin for a Special Market Alert edition for this week’s Metals & Markets, discussing:  US Mint caught completely off guard by EPIC physical demand, SOLD OUT of Silver Eagles after burning through over 2 million oz in less than 2 hours Wednesday morning! Primary Dealer of Silver Eagles […]

The post US Mint Caught Totally Off Guard By EPIC Wave of Silver Demand- Physical Market Screams No Mas! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Another Eureka Moment for the Gold Bugs

Posted: 09 Nov 2014 04:02 PM PST

The internet is breathlessly ablaze over a story detailing UBS and its plan to settle allegations over details concerning its precious metals trading. It seems like Christmas has come early in the world of gold conspiracy world.

Yet, this has an eerie quality about it once more. Why do I say that? Simple - because the entire claim of the Gold is Always Manipulated All The Time crowd ( GIAMATT) is exactly as articulated in the Paul Craig Roberts's article which I refuted in a previous post earlier in the day today. And what is that?

In his own words. Mr. Roberts claims that the big banks ( whom he refers to as 'agents of the Fed' ) are guilty of illegal activity to suppress the price of gold and discredit it. They do this by selling unlimited amounts of paper gold contracts at the Comex ( the scene of the crime according to him and those who view his pronouncements as gospel). The reason they do this is very clearly laid out -

"Eric, it's clear, this is the Federal Reserve protecting the value of the dollar from quantitative easing and the massive increase in the supply of dollars and dollar-denominated debt. 

This is exactly the theme that the gold price suppression scheme advocates have been claiming for years now. Those of you who remember my writings from the earlier days when gold was actually in a bull market, know that I was once a proponent of this theory. At the time, the US Dollar was sinking into oblivion and was threatening a major collapse on the price charts. Gold is the Anti-Dollar so it made perfect sense to me to give support to this view. After all, the feds have stepped into the foreign exchange markets from time to time to address currency valuations as well as form a Treasury Exchange Stabilization Fund known more commonly as the Plunge Protection Team.

However, I parted ways with some of the my former 'friends' over this when the fundamentals behind gold's move higher began to deteriorate and the bull market ended and a new bear market began. There was no longer any reason whatsoever for the feds to try to suppress the rise in the price of gold ( something which they failed to do by the way when the price hit $1900 before finally topping out for good).

Here is a series of questions that none of the gold price suppression scheme advocates will deal with honestly? Why is the Dollar no longer falling against nearly every single currency in the world? Why is the price of nearly every single commodity falling? Why is the TIPs Spread falling? Why is the Velocity of Money falling? Why are the Central Banks desperately trying to fight off Deflationary pressures and longing for their target of 2% inflation and failing to meet it? Why can anyone expect gold to be moving higher in a deflationary environment in which the price of most commodities, especially energy prices, continue to fall?

Keep in mind that none other than Jim Sinclair had written quite elegantly many years earlier about what he correctly termed the FIVE PILLARS of a BULL MARKET in Gold.

Among those are two key pillars and I quote:
1.) RISING COMMODITY PRICES
2.) A FALLING US DOLLAR

Jim noted that these were present during the great bull market of the late 1970's. Guess what? they were also present during the bull phase of gold which lasted from 2001- 2012 ( it began faltering in 2011).

Ironically or perhaps "Conveniently" would be a better choice of words, both pillars have been conspicuously ABSENT since the Dollar began its strong bull market and the commodity sector began its powerful bear market. ( see my earlier post about the charts).

Yet, those who subscribe to the gold price suppression scheme along the lines as articulated by Paul Craig Roberts, assure us that in spite of the glaring absence of two of their five pillars, the feds are still having to attack the price of gold through their agents, certain banks which are not noted specifically in the Roberts article.

Does not the open-minded reader find this odd to say the least? And I have not even touched on the interest rate component of those Five Pillars.

In other words, the US Dollar has been embarking on a powerful bull market and has gone nearly vertical since July of this year and is currently trading near a FOUR YEAR HIGH and yet Mr. Robert assures at this "attack" on gold by these "agents of the Fed" is being done in order to "protect the value of the Dollar from QE".

Strange deduction from a set of stubborn facts is it not?

But allow me to get back to the key point I wish to make - the gold price suppression scheme proponents tell us that any "illegal" activity that occurs in the Comex gold market is big banks acting as agents of the Fed to discredit the metal and to protect the value of the Dollar.

Remember this story from May of this year dealing with a rogue trader from Barclay's. I well remember it and wrote extensively about it at that time. Please see my comments on this as they are just as apropos about today's UBS story as they were back then. I will stand by my view back then just as strongly as I will stand by my view today.

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2014/05/ukraine-election-moves-to-forefront.html

The point is very simple - that large speculative forces, in my mind, mainly hedge funds, can move markets or act to influence them is nothing new in our financial markets. Sadly for those of us who prefer open and honest markets, it has been going on for years and will continue into the foreseeable future. However, to jump from that fact, that there is corruption in our financial markets, to the strained conclusion that this is evidence that the big banks are working as agents of the Fed to suppress the price of gold, is an insult to those whose minds can properly attribute cause and effect. It is especially insulting when the Dollar is the strongest currency currently in the world and the price of commodities is falling out of bed, with inflation fears sinking along with it.

If gold were in a bull market, if the Dollar was in a bear market and threatening collapse, if the commodity indices were all sharply rising with hot money flows swamping hard assets as they did a few years ago, if the mining shares were soaring higher, if the Velocity of Money was suggesting serious and possibly out-of-control inflationary forces were present, if REAL interest rates were negative, then perhaps, we could give more credence to the idea that among some of their strategies to deal with those things, an effort to slow down any sharp surge in the price of gold would carry credence with me as it once did some many years ago. Until then, the UBS story just confirms the same thing that most of us who have to make a living in these financial markets know all too well - namely, that the little guy, who is honest and plays by the rules, end up oftentimes donating to the big guys unless he or she is very nimble and can learn to stay clear of the sharks.



China Likely Bought 10,000 tons of Gold…and if They Did, Here’s Why

Posted: 09 Nov 2014 02:00 PM PST

My article "10,000 tons of gold…The math says China could have easily done it!" explains how it's possible or even likely China has amassed 10,000+ tons of gold. What it doesn't explain is the context as to why this is so important.   I know some know this story well, but for most, this needs […]

The post China Likely Bought 10,000 tons of Gold…and if They Did, Here's Why appeared first on Silver Doctors.

GATA dollar, euro, pound, or bitcoin?

Posted: 09 Nov 2014 09:31 AM PST

GATA

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