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• This could be the No. 1 risk to the economy today
• ‘Helicopter Yellen’ Sends Stocks, Gold, Silver Soaring
• King Dollar has not been Dethroned Just Yet
• If you've been waiting for "safe" time to buy gold miners, do not miss this chart
• FOMC meeting minutes rally stocks, raise gold
• World top 15 gold producers - output still rising but peaking this year
• British Government Refuses to Accept its Own Currency
• Cartel Water-boarding PM Investors
• Fortuna to beat silver-gold guidance - CEO
• The mother of all monetary hangovers will underscore need for gold
• BullionIndia aspires to triple gold and silver revenues
• Metals market update for October 9
• India's September gold bill soars to 15-month high
• ‘Helicopter Yellen’ Sends Stocks, Gold, Silver Soaring
• ‘Helicopter Yellen’ Sends Stocks, Gold, Silver Soaring
• New York losing some of its gold pricing power
• Dollar hits three-week low vs yen as dovish Fed minutes takes a toll
• Centamin reports 10.5% jump in gold production
• BMO cuts gold, silver, platinum price outlook
• Gold Forms Triple Bottom
• Gold Heads Higher Ahead Of FOMC
• CHARTS : Gold Technical Analysis (October 8, 2014): The push higher continues.
• CHARTS : Gold and Silver Stocks Apocalypse Now, Bear Market Review
• London Gold Fix Price Manipulation Confirmed by Australian Researchers
• U.S. Fed in no rush to increase interest rates
• No interest rate increases ever, Rickards says; Bloomberg anchor cites gold manipulation
• Tocqueville's Hathaway: China has it right about gold and the dollar
• Gold: Time to Prepare for Big Gains?
• Swiss vote on central bank gold could limit manipulation
• London gold fix price manipulation confirmed by Australian researchers
• Swiss gold referendum at end of November could start prices heading to the moon
• The Calm Before the Storm in the Gold Market
• Demand Explodes, Part 3: Indian War Elephants are Unleashed!
• Serious Financial Trouble Is Erupting In Germany And Japan
• October 8/GLD falls by 5.39 tonnes/SLV remains constant/gold and silver rise on beige book report/
• October 8/GLD falls by 5.39 tonnes/SLV remains constant/gold and silver rise on beige book report/
• October 8/GLD falls by 5.39 tonnes/SLV remains constant/gold and silver rise on beige book report/
• Oct 8GLD loses another 5.39 tonnes down to 762.08 tonnes/no change in SLV/gold and silver skyrocket on dovish news from the Fed/Yellen states that the dollar is too high/USA worried about global business climate/
• Silver Offers More Value Than Gold In This Market
• BO POLNY: Triple Bottom a Prelude to Runaway Gold & Silver Bull Markets
• Truth, Consequences, and Confiscations
• Fed Smacks Dollar; Europe and Japan Lose Hope
• Microdocumentary: 4 Major Boom And Bust Cycles Explained
• Gold rally may be precursor to further weakness
• This One Chart Shows Exactly How Undervalued Gold is Right Now…
• Protected: Big Reversal in the Gold Stocks…
• FOMC Minutes Chasing Gold Bears out
• Stocks, gold, and the dollar had BIG reversals today. Here’s why…
• What Has Recent History Shown About Inflation, Debt, Prosperity?

This could be the No. 1 risk to the economy today Posted: 09 Oct 2014 11:21 AM PDT From Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners: … a chill went down our spine. A sense of dread filled our frontal cortex. We read a report that was designed to give investors courage and hope. Instead, it felt to us like a guilty verdict in a murder trial. Even with good behavior, our sentence would probably last longer than we would. A chart told the story. It showed three bull markets over the last 20 years. In the 1990s, the S&P 500 total return was 227%. Then from 2002 to 2007, another bull market. The total return this time: 108%. And from 2009 to 2014, the S&P 500 returned another 195%. The lesson is unmistakable. It tells you to get in stocks… and stay in. If the market has a fainting spell, don’t get dizzy. Stick with stocks! Buy the Dips? “Yes, we’ve seen some weak periods,” say the wealth managers, investment counselors and stockbrokers. But they’ve always been followed by even greater strength. Each high has led to an even higher high.” This is the message taken on board by a generation of investors. And if you go back further, you will find the same lesson learned by their fathers… even their grandfathers. Since the end of World War II, there have been up markets, down markets and sideways markets. But if you had just gotten in and stayed in over any substantial length of time, you would have done well. That is true for almost all financial assets – at least over the last 35 years – and true for stocks, especially, over the last 70 years. In 1960, the S&P 500 was 59. Yesterday, it was 1,964. The lesson is now imbedded in our race memory… in our collective unconscious… and in our brains, our culture and our muscles. Even after a stroke or Alzheimer’s… after senile dementia and adult diapers… we will recite it on our deathbeds: “Buy the dips.” We don’t have to think about it. We may fear the next recession… or the next sell-off on Wall Street… but we are confident the darkest night will always be followed by a bright dawn – always has! And always will. At least, until it doesn’t. Mr. Market’s Biggest Coup But what if Mr. Market is about to pull his biggest coup? What if the next dark night lasts 10… 20… 30 years? What if the experience of the last 70 years was sui generis? What if it was the result of particular conditions, which have now changed… and can’t be repeated? What if we are now looking at highs that we will never again see in our lifetimes? Of course, what we don’t know about the future is encyclopedic. But wouldn’t it be a nice trick on Mr. Market’s part? After World War II the U.S. had the world’s largest economy – by far – and unlike its rivals in Europe, it was still intact. The GIs came home. They got married… they had the famous baby boom children… they started businesses and careers. Credit expanded – up 50 times since then. And now, with interest rates lower than ever before, the credit expansion must be nearing its end. World War II vets are dying at the rate of about 1,000 a day. And their children are retiring… at a rate of 10,000 every day. The boomers are no longer adding to wealth; they’re subtracting from it. They’re no longer expanding credit by borrowing to buy new houses and new cars; now, they’re living off their investments and Social Security, counting on their own savings or the kindness of strangers to see them through the rest of their lives. You heard about the great jobs report on Friday. Some 248,000 new jobs were created. But wait… The real story is that of the 14 million people added to the adult population of the US since 2008, only 1 million have found real jobs. That’s the important story: Growth is slowing. We have more people… but fewer of them paying the bills. Reagan’s former budget adviser David Stockman comments: Going back to September 2000, for example, there were only 76 million adults not in the labor force or unemployed, and that represented just 35.8% of the adult population of 213 million. This means there has been a 26 million gain in the number of adults not working – even part-time – during that 14-year period. About 10 million of that gain is accounted for by retired workers on Social Security – a figure which has risen from 28.5 million to 38.5 million during the interim.  But where are the other 16 million? The answer is on disability (+4.5 million), food stamps (+25 million), survivors and dependents benefits, other forms of public aid, living in parents’ basements on student loans or not, or on the streets. The employment ratio has plunged; full-time breadwinner jobs have actually shrunk; total labor hours employed have been stagnant; real GDP has grown at only 1.8% annually for 14 years – compared to 4% annually between 1956 and 1970; and real net capital investment is 20% below its turn-of-the-century level.  This isn’t at all like the postwar period. It is a whole different ballgame. We may never again in our lifetimes see stocks so high. What if we have seen the highs in U.S. stocks and bonds – not just for the next five or 10 years… but for the rest of our lifetimes? Yesterday, the Dow fell 272 points. No big deal, of course. But what if it continues? Just six years ago it fell 51%. It could easily do so again – back down to, say, 8,000. There would be nothing unusual about it. Fifty percent corrections are normal. You know what would happen, don’t you? Ever since the “Black Monday” stock market crash in 1987 it has been standard procedure for the Fed to react quickly. But what if Yellen & Co. got out the party favors… set up the booze on the counter… laid out some dishes with pretzels and olives…. and nobody came? What if the stock market stayed down for 30 years, as it has in Japan? A Special and Unusual Time It seems almost unbelievable… Every time U.S. stocks have gone down since World War II they’ve bounced back… and hit new highs. We take it for granted that they will always go up over the long run. But why should they? The time between 1945 and 2007 is starting to look less and less like the “way things always are”… and more and more like the “way things were during a special and unusual time.” It was more of an outlier than an average. The world was recovering from World War II. Populations were growing. New markets were emerging. People were starting new families and new businesses. And perhaps most important, the world was just beginning the greatest credit expansion in its history. Gold – which had kept the U.S. dollar honest for almost two centuries – was taken out in two steps. First, in February 1968, when President Johnson asked Congress to end the requirement that dollars be backed by gold. Second, in August 1971, when President Nixon ended the direct convertibility of dollars to gold. Thenceforth, the flimflam began. We’ve been over the numbers before. No point in repeating them. Besides, the point we are making is obvious: When it comes to multiplying a society’s debt by a factor of 50… or increasing its debt-to-GDP ratio from 140% to 350%… we pass this way but once in a lifetime. Credit can continue to expand for one… two… even 10 years. But not for 50 years. Not without trouble hot on its heels, at least. Of course, the future includes a potentially infinite number of days. And we don’t know what will happen on even a single one. But if half a century goes by… and we wake up one fine day and discover that debt has risen to 1,000% of GDP… won’t we be surprised! Pockets Full, Head Empty Meanwhile, look what is happening to the Treasury market…. The Fed is supposed to withdraw from bond auctions this month. There goes one of the Department of the Treasury’s biggest and best customers… his pockets full and his head empty. You’d think you’d see Treasury bond prices would fall. But no! They’re going up. This curious trend has confounded analysts all over the world. If the US economy really were recovering, it should mean higher yields (and lower bond prices, which move in the opposite direction) as interest rates rise. So, what’s going on? Are bond buyers making a mistake? Or is the economy really weaker than the recent jobs report would make it appear? We’ll go with the bond market on this one. Low Treasury yields are consistent, after all, with sluggish growth. And who can expect the same growth rate as we had over the last 50 years? From “bond king” Bill Gross: Growth in the U.S. and elsewhere has been facilitated in the past 30 years by the expansion of credit and leverage. Once capitalists recognize that they can’t continue to accumulate leverage at the same pace, growth slows. Demographics also are contributing to diminished economic growth. The boomers aren’t booming. They are getting older and retiring. Most boomers need health care, but they don’t need another house or a third car. The aging of our society is putting curbs on economic growth. Thirdly, technology is a boon and a wonder, but it also has eliminated jobs that aren’t being replaced at the same pace. Apple is a wonderful company, but it doesn’t hire as many people as the old General Motors. Finally, globalization is an issue. The U.S. has been the world leader in globalization since the end of World War II. We have benefited from mercantilistic expansion, and because the dollar has been the reserve currency. Now things are turning sour elsewhere. When you fly into headwinds, you fly at a different speed. We’ve spent our entire life in a credit expansion. We began life when the cork came out of the credit jug. We’ve all been pulling hard on it ever since. Credit juiced up the economy… and the stock market. Heck, we’ve lived on it. We’ve taken TVs from China. Autos from Japan. Wine from France and Italy. “Hey, we’ll pay you later,” we said. What if “later” were now? Regards, Bill

‘Helicopter Yellen’ Sends Stocks, Gold, Silver Soaring Posted: 09 Oct 2014 10:30 AM PDT Gold, silver and stocks surged overnight and today after the Fed maintained their ultra dovish monetary policy stance. The risk to markets of an early hike in U.S. interest rates eased leading to a fall in the dollar after the release of minutes of the last Federal Reserve policy meeting.    From Goldcore:  'Helicopter Janet' […] The post 'Helicopter Yellen' Sends Stocks, Gold, Silver Soaring appeared first on Silver Doctors. Check out these similar articles: History Shatters the Fallacy That Rising Interest Rates Are Gold’s Nemesis Fed Minutes: “BROAD SUPPORT FOR BERNANKE TAPERING” Gold-Stock Panic Levels

King Dollar has not been Dethroned Just Yet Posted: 09 Oct 2014 09:38 AM PDT Trying to get a read on these markets during the times that the Fed is either announcing policy changes or releasing minutes can be incredibly difficult. The sheer ferocity of the moves in price can confound even the most astute and dedicated chart watchers. It would appear at this point ( don't hold your breath however as who knows what will happen in the next hour much less the next day in these markets anymore) that the Dollar found eager buyers at the key breakout level near 85.00 on the USDX chart. Note that the Dollar fell back to that former resistance level which is now serving as downside support and that support did hold. That it did so, in spite of the Fed's concerns over its strength, is rather telling. It shows that the fundamentals supporting the Dollar are just too strong right now, Fed protestations notwithstanding. it all comes back down to interest rate differentials. Traders are of the view that economic data releases that are forthcoming are going to show continued improvement ( albeit gradual) and that compared to other major currency regions, that strength is noteworthy. Look at the Euro for Pete's sake - it is down over 55 points as I type this with forex guys wasting no time in selling into its rally. When it comes to gold - just like yesterday when we had to give respect to the big rally in the mining shares, so today we must give respect to the fact that the miners are sinking once more. The HUI is off over 4% with the junior-laden GDXJ getting pummeled once more as it is off more than 5.5% as I type up these comments. Also, as one of our regular posters noted ( we are all watching that now) the big gold ETF, GLD, actually LOST gold yesterday - almost 5.5 tons to be precise. Apparently those in that vehicle used the big rally yesterday to get out. The ETF is now down 36.14 tons since the beginning of the year. For those who are bullish on gold, that is not an encouraging sign. One wants to see the reported holdings climbing on rallies, not shrinking. I am noticing that silver is having trouble holding its gains above the key chart resistance level near $17.50. It managed to push past that level earlier in the session ( failing to make it as far as more formidable overhead resistance near $18.00) but has since fallen back. Copper is continuing to hold above $3.00 which is helping silver but with the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index continuing to swoon, one has to be skeptical about the extent of any upward moves in these metals continuing much further. The bulls will have to prove their mettle ( a little play on words here). Here is the most recent GSCI. The index is one point above a 27 month low. If it drops more than a point, it will be at levels last seen FOUR YEARS ago! Crude oil and the products continue to weaken - I noted that yesterday this sector failed to respond to the big sell off in the Dollar - that was a sign that the fundamentals are just too poor which makes me even more concerned about deflationary pressures. Crude has dropped $22.50 / barrel in 3 1/2 months time. That is why I keep telling those who are stuck on inflation that they need to check their ideology at the door and look at the chart. It is going down, not up. Personally, as a consumer, I LOVE it. Depending on the outcome of the USDA report tomorrow, we might just get a break of that 27 month low level. Heck, if crude keeps falling today it might do that today! (NOTE - Before I could finish typing this post the GSCI just fell BELOW that 27 month low - it hit a FRESH FOUR YEAR LOW TODAY). Again, at the risk of beating a dead horse, this is the reason that I remain skeptical about any SUSTAINED moves higher in both gold and silver. What we witnessed on Monday of this week and yesterday were what happens when the Dollar weakens. My viewpoint is that the Dollar has been and will remain the key for many of our commodity markets. The sheer magnitude of these leveraged carry trades overwhelms anything fundamentally driven for a time but if the general trend is one of lower commodity prices due to slowing global growth, it is hard to see how a few words from the Fed can significantly alter that trend WITHOUT some sort of action. Remember - Central Bankers are very good at moving their currencies by talking them down or talking them up, but IF the movement is AGAINST the primary trend, which is driven by fundamentals, the countertrend move will not have any staying power. It takes a shift in the fundamentals and that means a shift in policies. I keep watching the cattle market in awe wondering at what point the fun and games for the bulls are going to come to an end. Funds have been big longs in this market and it is one of the very few that have been bucking the trend in the commodity sector in general so they are pushing it for all their worth. Funds LOVE DRIVING BULL MARKETS HIGHER. They always overdo things however. The trick for a trader is trying to read the market to figure out when they have done just that. As of now there is still no sign of a top in these markets ( both fats and feeders). My own view is that cattle are living on borrowed time but I am not dumb enough to get in front of a fund-driven freight train at the moment. Corn could be setting itself up for a big fall ahead of tomorrow's USDA report. Some players have been trying to squeeze out the shorts based on harvest delays but from what I can tell, private forecasting firms are all upping their yield estimates. It will take a rather bullish report from USDA tomorrow to keep prices at these elevated levels. If the USDA increases the number of unplanted acres but kicks up the yields, traders who have bid prices up ahead of the report might well be left high and dry. Many in the industry continue to marvel at the yields from some areas that have been harvested. There has been some chatter that more acres will go to beans down in S. America in lieu of the very high bean prices in relation to corn and that is the reason being given for buying in the corn pit but that seems to be quite a bit of a stretch at this point given the massive crop that is coming our way. That will probably be the case, as well as here in the US for the next planting season - but we are talking about a huge carryover for this year. Yes, harvest is being delayed in some areas due to the rains but one thing that many traders continue to underestimate is the speed at which US farmers can both run those planters and harvest their crops when they do get an open window. The days of 4-6 row tractors are over for the average farmer. I love witnessing the wheat harvest up here my way as I am just awestruck by the size of those combines. They are IMMENSE and can really chew their way through a field quite rapidly. Harvest delays are just that - "Delays" - that is one thing. Crop quality deterioration is altogether another thing. So far there are no reports that I am seeing of quality issues in regards to the rains and the crop. Remember that big recent rally in wheat that some in the trade were attributing to wheat having fallen far enough in price to bring some increase in export buying. Today's export numbers sure as heck obliterated that argument. Down went wheat as apparently wheat above $5.00 is not conducive to exports so pushing it up even more doesn't make a helluva lot of sense if you are trying to garner some business. Looks like it is going to have to retreat once more to see if it really can move low enough to get competitive with the rest of the global supplies out there.

If you've been waiting for "safe" time to buy gold miners, do not miss this chart Posted: 09 Oct 2014 09:29 AM PDT From Chris Kimble at Kimble Charting Solutions: CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE Do you believe in the idea of buying low and selling higher? If so you might want to keep reading this post and take a peak at this hard hit sector. Few sectors have struggled more in the last two years than the Gold Miners. The Miners ETF GDX is down 60% in just 24 months. Ouch!!! Over the past 90 days, GDX is down 20%, even after yesterday’s 7% rally. Much of this decline could have to do with the U.S. dollar having the 6th strongest 90-day rally in the past 34 years. This rally has pushed the dollar up against multi-year resistance, with 87% of investors now bullish, as Josh Brown of The Reformed Broker shares. The chart above looks at the grand daddy of all mining index’s, the Gold/Silver Index (XAU). I like this index for a couple of reasons. 1.) It has been around since the early 1980′s, great for long-term perspective. 2.) It includes silver mining stocks, which is a more in-depth reflection of ALL mining stocks. (GDX only covers gold mining stocks). It appears that the XAU index is creating a bullish wick at monthly support, as monthly momentum is reaching deeply oversold levels and is making a small turn up as a base is attempting to be made. Is a “Generational Low” in the miners taking place right now? Todd Shriber of ETF Trends discusses this possibility earlier this year, when GDX was at the lows of the year. (See post here.) Full Disclosure: Two classes of our members did pick up GDX at the start of this week, due to support and momentum at these levels with specific risk management stops in place.

FOMC meeting minutes rally stocks, raise gold Posted: 09 Oct 2014 09:02 AM PDT Gold prices are moderately higher today as stocks rally, following the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes.

World top 15 gold producers - output still rising but peaking this year Posted: 09 Oct 2014 08:31 AM PDT The latest analysis from Metals Focus sees global mine production peaking this year and improving fundamentals ahead.

British Government Refuses to Accept its Own Currency Posted: 09 Oct 2014 08:30 AM PDT Chris Rose was dying from terminal heart disease. He didn't have long, and before he passed, he wanted to make sure that his 18-month old son received his British passport. When he went to pay the application fee at the British consulate in Hong Kong with cash, they told him, "Sorry we only take credit […] The post British Government Refuses to Accept its Own Currency appeared first on Silver Doctors. Check out these similar articles: Koos Jansen’s Exhaustive Summary of the Chinese Gold Market 2013 Gold Trade Numbers Broke All Records Are The London Gold Vaults Running Empty?

Cartel Water-boarding PM Investors Posted: 09 Oct 2014 08:30 AM PDT After silver topped $30, I realized I needed more, that my purchases at $24 were rather insignificant. I often sang that refrain: "How I wish I had bought it cheaper."  The rest is history—especially the part where I loaded the boat with a credit card at over $40 per ounce. So here we are with $17 […] The post Cartel Water-boarding PM Investors appeared first on Silver Doctors. Check out these similar articles: History Shatters the Fallacy That Rising Interest Rates Are Gold’s Nemesis Jim Grant: We're in an Era of 'Central Bank Worship' Can the Primary Miners Survive $18 Silver?

Fortuna to beat silver-gold guidance - CEO Posted: 09 Oct 2014 07:54 AM PDT Fortuna Silver precious metal production is on a tear this year.

The mother of all monetary hangovers will underscore need for gold Posted: 09 Oct 2014 07:46 AM PDT Gold, silver and stocks surged overnight and today after the Fed maintained their ultra dovish monetary policy stance.

BullionIndia aspires to triple gold and silver revenues Posted: 09 Oct 2014 07:34 AM PDT BullionIndia, the online platform for gold and silver trade, has unveiled plans to triple its turnover during 2014-15.

Metals market update for October 9 Posted: 09 Oct 2014 06:49 AM PDT Gold climbed $11.90 or 0.98% to $1,222.50 per ounce and silver rose $0.21 or 1.22% to $17.40 per ounce yesterday.

India's September gold bill soars to 15-month high Posted: 09 Oct 2014 06:41 AM PDT The stocking up of gold by retailers and traders resulted in sharp surge in Indian gold imports during the last week of September.

‘Helicopter Yellen’ Sends Stocks, Gold, Silver Soaring Posted: 09 Oct 2014 05:07 AM PDT For more than 5 years now the Fed has been 'jawboning' markets and threatening to rise interest rates and return to more normal monetary policies. We have consistently warned that it is important to watch what central banks do, rather than what they say – as they frequently conflict. Indeed, even what they say can conflict and it is often dissembling and some would say designed to confuse and mislead market participants.  Copious amounts of monetary whiskey have been downed in the global economy and yet the recovery remains weak at best. The mother of all monetary hangovers awaits us all and will likely manifest in stagflation and sharply higher inflation.  This underlines the vital importance of having an allocation to gold in a diversified portfolio. Gold, silver and stocks surged overnight and today after the Fed maintained their ultra dovish monetary policy stance. The risk to markets of an early hike in U.S. interest rates eased leading to a  fall in the dollar after the release of minutes of the last Federal Reserve policy meeting.  'Helicopter Janet' World stock markets roared their approval of reassurances that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates any time soon. Capital came flooding back into almost every asset class and the dollar fell sharply. Gold jumped over 1% to $1,224.30 – at a two-week high, while silver surged 2% on the Fed minutes. The dollar, jolted lower, while gold, silver and oil and commodity prices rose. The other precious metals also caught the updraft. Silver surged 2% to $17.646 an ounce, platinum was up 0.5% at $1,283.20 an ounce, and palladium was up 0.4% at $803.75 an ounce. Gold in U.S. Dollars,  5 Days (Thomson Reuters)  There were big gains on Wall Street and for Asia stocks, and European shares duly followed suit as Britain’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX  and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.7%, 1.2% and 0.8% respectively in early trading. Market participants have interpreted the tone of the FOMC minutes as suggesting that U.S. interest rates could remain lower for longer than most expected, causing the dollar to weaken. Observers had been worried that the minutes from Chair Janet Yellen’s Fed could lead to market volatility and further sharp stock market falls. 'Helicopter Janet' is confirming the belief of some market participants that she will continue the ultra loose monetary policies of her predecessor 'Helicopter Ben' and of course Alan Greenspan before them. Bond yields throughout the world, which have plunged during years of cheap funding from the Fed and the world’s other major central banks, hit new record lows. Ireland's bond yield hit a record low of 1.63%, despite Ireland still having important structural issues that have yet to be addressed and significant debt challenges. The minutes showed Fed officials were wary about the dual threats of a stronger dollar and recent wobbles in the world economy as they desperately seek an eventual exit from record low rates. Currency debasement continues in the U.S. and with other central banks – banks, and indeed markets appear hooked on the cocaine of ultra loose monetary policies and cheap money. A rise in U.S. interest rates will be bearish for stocks, bonds, property and the already struggling U.S economy. Stocks already appear overvalued and ripe for a serious correction. The U.S. recovery is exaggerated and the health of U.S. consumers and the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain weak. An economy that has over 55 million or nearly 20% of the population on food stamps is by its nature very weak and vulnerable. S&P 500 – Jan 1985 to Oct 8, 2014 (Thomson Reuters) For more than 5 years now the Fed has been 'jawboning' markets and threatening to rise interest rates and return to more normal monetary policies. We have consistently warned that it is important to watch what central banks do, rather than what they say – as they frequently conflict. Indeed, even what they say can conflict and it is often dissembling and some would say designed to confuse and mislead market participants.  Copious amounts of monetary whiskey have been downed in the global economy and yet the recovery remains weak at best. The mother of all monetary hangovers awaits us all and will likely manifest in stagflation and sharply higher inflation.  This underlines the vital importance of having an allocation to gold in a diversified portfolio.  Gold will maintain its purchasing power in the coming years, as it has always done throughout history.  RECEIVE BREAKING NEWS AND UPDATES HERE GOLDCORE MARKET UPDATE Today's AM fix was USD 1,227.50, EUR 961.99 and GBP 757.67 per ounce. Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,220.00, EUR  963.51 and GBP 758.38 per ounce. Gold climbed $11.90 or 0.98% to $1,222.50 per ounce and silver rose $0.21 or 1.22% to $17.40 per ounce yesterday. Gold in Singapore eked out small gains from $1,223/oz to , before shaving gains to trade down 0.2 percent at $1,219.30 by 0036 GMT. Silver in U.S. Dollars,  5 Days (Thomson Reuters)  Yesterday, the U.S. Fed  released minutes of the Sept. 16-17 meeting, that highlighted fears that a rising dollar could impact the fragile U.S. recovery and noted the economic turmoil in Europe and Asia (see above). More signs of the very difficult economic situation in Europe came out of Germany today where German exports slumped by 5.8% in August, their biggest fall since the height of the global financial crisis in January 2009, as the sanctions and tensions with Russia took their toll. It is yet another sign that Europe’s largest economy is faltering amid broader euro zone weakness and crises abroad. The Bank of England kept interest rates at a record low 0.5% today and kept printing money for bond purchases to the tune of £375 billion a year. The risk of a new recession in the euro zone and caution from the US Federal Reserve suggested a first increase in UK borrowing costs might be delayed. The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee left its bank rate at 0.5%, the level at which it has sat since the worst of the financial crisis over five years ago. Record low interest rates in the UK and globally remain positive for gold.

‘Helicopter Yellen’ Sends Stocks, Gold, Silver Soaring Posted: 09 Oct 2014 05:02 AM PDT gold.ie

New York losing some of its gold pricing power Posted: 09 Oct 2014 04:33 AM PDT The thinness of trade there against a strong higher Fix in London implies that NY is losing some of its pricing power, says Julian Phillips.

Dollar hits three-week low vs yen as dovish Fed minutes takes a toll Posted: 09 Oct 2014 03:29 AM PDT The dollar fell to a three-week low against the yen on Thursday, as investors cut favorable bets after minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting prompted many to push out expectations for the likely timing of an interest rate rise... Read

Centamin reports 10.5% jump in gold production Posted: 09 Oct 2014 02:48 AM PDT The Egypt-focussed miner has also maintained it full-year production forecast of 420,000 ounces of gold.

BMO cuts gold, silver, platinum price outlook Posted: 09 Oct 2014 02:24 AM PDT BMO Research's preferred gold mining companies are Randgold, Alamos Gold, Franco-Nevada, Goldcorp and Dalradian.

Gold Forms Triple Bottom Posted: 09 Oct 2014 01:20 AM PDT investing

Gold Heads Higher Ahead Of FOMC Posted: 09 Oct 2014 01:15 AM PDT investing

CHARTS : Gold Technical Analysis (October 8, 2014): The push higher continues. Posted: 09 Oct 2014 01:10 AM PDT forexlive

CHARTS : Gold and Silver Stocks Apocalypse Now, Bear Market Review Posted: 09 Oct 2014 12:50 AM PDT marketoracle

London Gold Fix Price Manipulation Confirmed by Australian Researchers Posted: 08 Oct 2014 11:14 PM PDT "West Texas Intermediate Crude set a now low price" ¤ Yesterday In Gold & Silver The gold price opened quietly in Far East trading on their Wednesday morning.  Then it popped a few bucks at 9 a.m. Hong Kong time---before going back to sleep until about 1:20 p.m.   Then it rallied until the 10:30 a.m. BST London morning gold fix, before running out of gas.  Then at the London p.m. gold fix, the HFT boyz showed up---and had gold down on the day in short order---and from that point it drifted lower until the Fed minutes were released at 2 p.m. EDT.  Gold then ran up just over $15, before selling off a hair in the last hour of trading in the New York Access Market. The low and high ticks were recorded by the CME Group as $1,205.10 and $1,224.50 in the December contract. Gold finished the trading session on Wednesday at  $1,221.50 spot, up $13.20 on the day.  Not surprisingly, there was huge volume, as both the London and New York rallies were met with ferocious selling by the Commercial traders.  Net volume was 180,000 contracts. Reader Brad Robertson sent me the 2-minute tick chart for gold that shows almost all of the Comex trading session that mattered yesterday.  He commented that "So far It looks like they did pound gold down before the Fed minutes because of fear of the rise in price that would inevitably follow."  I sure wouldn't put it past these crooks---and don't forget to add two hours to these times to get EDT. The silver price action was similar to what happened in gold, except it was far more subdued.  But all the inflection points, including both London gold fixes---and the price action at the 2 p.m. EDT Fed's minute release---are all plainly visible on the silver chart as well. The low and higher were reported as $17.055 and $17.465 in the December contract. Silver finished the Wednesday session in New York at $17.38 spot, up 19 cents from Tuesday's close.  Volume was very decent at 44,500 contracts. The price patterns for both platinum and palladium were more subdued versions of what happened in silver---and both metals posted decent gains once again, with platinum up another 18 dollars---and palladium up 16 bucks.  Here are the charts. The dollar index closed late on Tuesday afternoon in New York at 85.66.  It rose as high as 85.92 just before London opened, before falling 30 basis points shortly before the London morning gold fix.  It managed to gain back a good chunk by the 1:30 p.m. EDT Comex close---and then got smacked for 60 basis points once the Fed minutes came out.  The index closed at 85.32 on Wednesday---which was down 34 basis points from it's Tuesday close. The gold stocks opened in the black, but slid into negative territory around 11 a.m. EDT, with the low of the day coming about 11:45 a.m.  From there they developed a positive bias---and began to rally with a vengeance shortly before 2 p.m.---and stayed in rally mode until the last few minutes of trading.  The HUI finished up a very chunky 7.56%. The silver equities turned in a very similar performance, as Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index closed up 7.10 percent. I would guess that part of yesterday's rallies were short covering related, as the rallies were out of all proportion to the underlying metal's respective price gains. The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that zero gold and 51 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Friday.  Once again it was Jefferies as the only short/issuer---and they, along with Scotiabank and R.J. O'Brien, were the three main stoppers.  The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. The CME Preliminary Report for the Wednesday trading session showed that there are 1,315 gold contracts, almost unchanged from Tuesday's report---along with 224 silver contracts still open in the October delivery month, which is down 113 contracts from Tuesday.  Also subtract another 51 silver contracts for tomorrow's delivery. There was a fairly big withdrawal from GLD yesterday.  This time it was 173,063 troy ounces, almost 6 metric tonnes.  And as of 9:49 p.m. EDT yesterday evening, there were no reported changes in SLV. The U.S. Mint had another very decent sales report yesterday.  They sold 7,000 troy ounces of gold eagles---2,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes---and 475,000 silver eagles. Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday, they reported receiving 37,565 troy ounces of gold---and shipped out 3 kilobars.  All the gold received went into Scotiabank's vaults---and the link to that activity is here. The in/out activity in silver was busier of course, as 140,752 troy ounces were reported received---and 519,791 troy ounces were shipped out the door.  The link to that action is here. I received the "Monthly Chinese Gold Net Imports from Hong Kong" chart from Nick yesterday evening---and here are his comments on the chart below:  "Net gold imports into China via Hong Kong were 27 tonnes for the month of August." "The Hong Kong route has gone from being the major source for Chinese imports to a minor one as can be seen in the second chart where Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals were almost 190 tonnes for the month of August." "At this rate Hong Kong imports of gold are now only approx 14% of SGE withdrawals." I don't have anywhere near the number of stories today that I had yesterday---and I hope there are a few posted below that are of interest to you. ¤ Critical Reads U.S. Fed in no rush to increase interest rates The Federal Reserve's debate on its interest rate guidance heated up last month, with several officials showing concern about misleading investors and pushing for a more data-dependent approach, according to minutes from its last policy meeting. But as the Fed grapples with how to communicate its view on hiking rates, the minutes also show concern about the rising dollar, slowing inflation, and economic turmoil in Europe and Asia, factors that support the U.S. central bank's current of keeping policy accommodation in place for the near future. "The concern was raised that the reference to 'considerable time' in the current forward guidance could be misunderstood as a commitment rather than as data dependent," said the minutes of the Fed's September 16-17 meeting, which were released on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar, which has risen in the last 12 weeks, trimmed gains from earlier on Wednesday. Yields on Treasury bonds dipped, while U.S. stocks rose, suggesting investors read the minutes as dovish. This news item showed up on the Australian Internet site theage.com.au at 7:06 a.m. local time on their Thursday morning. No interest rate increases ever, Rickards says; Bloomberg anchor cites gold manipulation Interviewed this week by Bloomberg News TV, fund manager and geopolitical analyst James G. Rickards contends that interest rates are unlikely ever to be raised again in his lifetime. He says that as the composition of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System changes in January and becomes more supportive of easy money and as the U.S. economy remains so weak, the Fed is likely to launch another round of "quantitative easing" next year. When the interview turns to gold, one of the Bloomberg anchors remarks in passing that "some would say" central banks "manipulate" it -- though of course, since he is a financial journalist, he can't be expected to do any research as to whether there's any truth in what "some say." Rickards notes the "enormous" demand for gold from China and says "the gold available to support the paper market is shrinking." This video interview appeared in this column yesterday, but in light of the Fed minutes, I thought it worth posting again---complete with the above introductory paragraphs by GATA's Chris Powell.  The interview is 8 minutes long. Fed's Lacker Slams Fed For "Inappropriate" Bond-Buying, "Distorting Markets & Undermining Independence" Modern central banks enjoy extraordinary independence, typically operating free from political interference. That has proved critical for price stability in recent decades, but it puts central banks in a perpetually precarious position. Central-bank legitimacy will wane without boundaries on tools used for credit-market intervention. Since 2009 the Fed has acquired $1.7 trillion in mortgage-backed securities underwritten by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , the mortgage companies now under government conservatorship. Housing finance was at the heart of the financial crisis, and these purchases began in early 2009 out of concern for the stability of the housing-finance system. Mortgage markets have since stabilized, but the purchases have resumed, with more than $800 billion accumulated since September 2012. We were skeptical of the need for the purchase of mortgage assets, even in 2009, believing that the Fed could achieve its goals through the purchase of Treasury securities alone. Now, as the Fed looks to raise the federal-funds rate and other short-term interest rates to more normal levels, that normalization should include a plan to sell these assets at a predictable pace, so that we can minimize our distortion of credit markets. The Federal Open Market Committee’s recent statement of normalization principles did not include such a plan. For this reason, the first author, an FOMC participant, was unwilling to support the principles. The Fed’s MBS holdings go well beyond what is required to conduct monetary policy, even with interest rates near zero. The Federal Reserve has two main policy mandates: price stability and maximum employment. In the past, the pursuit of higher employment has sometimes led the Fed (and other central banks) to sacrifice monetary stability for the short-term employment gains that easier policy can provide. This sacrifice can bring unfortunate consequences such as the double-digit inflation seen in the 1960s and 1970s. This commentary by Richmond Fed head Jeffrey Lacker first showed up as an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal---and then found a home over at the Zero Hedge website at 10:40 a.m. EDT yesterday morning---and it's the first offering of the day from Manitoba reader U.M. IMF Joins Fed Raising Caution Flags on Stock Bubbles Everyone has an opinion on the stock market nowadays. Three months after the Federal Reserve said prices were stretched in some stocks, the International Monetary Fund weighed in with its own warning Tuesday, saying the risk of equity losses in 2014 has risen and stock valuations may be “frothy.” Pushed also by global economic concerns, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index opened lower and was down 1.5 percent at 1,935.10 at 4 p.m. in New York. While caution on valuations comes as policy makers debate whether six years of near-zero interest rates are inflating bubbles, acting on the Fed’s concern about small-caps and biotechnology shares yielded mixed results. Since the comments on July 15, the Russell 2000 Index is down 6.7 percent, while the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index rallied almost 6 percent. “We don’t put much into what they say from a market perspective,” Rick Fier, director of equity trading at Conifer Securities LLC in New York, said in an interview. “They must be getting nervous as to where the growth is. The recent volatility we have been having is due to the growth scare out of Europe and that is still the problem.” This news story was posted on the newsmax.com Internet site at 6:48 p.m. EDT on Tuesday evening---and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending it our way. Homebuilders Offer Freebies as Booming U.S. Markets Cool Joseph Beben wasn’t in the market for a house until he heard about a year-old community in suburban Phoenix where 10 home builders are offering buyers incentives such as swimming pools, built-in barbecues and subsidized mortgage rates. Beben, a 33-year-old general manager at Best Buy Co., visited three of the sales offices flanking the main corridor of The Bridges at Gilbert, whose 17 subdivisions are among the about 200 locally that have opened since early last year. He settled on Woodside Homes’ community within The Bridges after the builder agreed to cover as much as $10,000 of his closing costs, and throw in another extra he liked. “When I saw this deal, it looked like a good business decision,” said Beben, who will pay $332,000 for a 3,000-square-foot (280-square-meter) house scheduled to be completed by February. “And I wanted a pool.” Builders in Phoenix and areas from Sacramento, California, to Orlando, Florida, are sweetening offers as sales slow in some of the country’s most volatile housing markets. Buyers, suffering from sticker shock after large price gains in 2013, are pulling back after the U.S. government cut the maximum size for mortgages with low down payments. In Phoenix, the Federal Housing Administration’s loan limits dropped well below the median price for a new home. This Bloomberg article, filed from Boston, was posted on their Internet site at 9:48 a.m. Denver time on their Tuesday morning---and it's something that I 'borrowed' from yesterday's edition of the King Report. Two leading HSBC directors quit in protest at tough new rules that will punish reckless U.K. bankers with jail terms Alan Thomson, who is on the board of the international bank’s U.K. subsidiary, is planning to leave at the end of this month - and John Trueman, the deputy chairman, is preparing to resign but has not yet formally done so. The moves come as proposals for rules to make senior bankers more accountable were unveiled by the regulators. The Prudential Regulation Authority is consulting on proposals until the end of this month under which senior staff could face criminal liability if their bank fails and they are subsequently found guilty of reckless misconduct. Under the regime, which regulators want to be in force by January next year, the onus would be on bankers to prove they behaved appropriately. Off with their heads, I say!  This article appeared on the dailymail.co.uk Internet site at 11:41 p.m. BST late on their Tuesday evening---and I thank reader David Caron for passing it around yesterday. Germany's Insistence on Austerity Meets With Revolt in the Eurozone As Europe confronts new signs of economic trouble, national leaders, policy makers and economists are starting to challenge as never before the guiding principle of the Continent’s response to six years of crisis: Germany’s insistence on budget austerity as a precondition to healthy growth. France this week stepped up what has become an open revolt by some of the eurozone’s bigger economies against Chancellor Angela Merkel’s continued demands for deficit reduction in the face of slowing growth. Italy has warned against too rigidly following Germany’s preferred approach. Even the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, is pushing for Germany to loosen up. The disagreement looms over European Union leaders as they meet at least three times this month, starting on Wednesday in Milan with discussion of high unemployment, particularly among the young, and the question of how to get Europe’s economies moving again. The rapidly evolving debate holds the potential to be a turning point after a long period in which Germany and Ms. Merkel have dominated European economic policy. On Tuesday, new signs emerged that Germany, the traditional growth engine of the eurozone, was on the verge of an economic downturn. This article, filed from Berlin, showed up on The New York Times website on Tuesday sometime---and it's the first offering of the day from Roy Stephens. Fitch: Ukraine's capital two steps away from default The Fitch rating agency has downgraded Kiev's long-term rating, as the Ukrainian capital failed to repay its domestic $87 million debt. The move could be classified as a “restricted default” if the city fails to settle bonds by October 10. The rating agency cut Kiev’s long-term foreign and local currency rating to CC from CCC, and its national long-term rating to BB from BBB, the statement says. Initially the review date for Fitch's rating of Kiev was scheduled on October 10. But after the city announced a restructuring of domestic bonds and its failure to repay the scheduled tranche of 1.125 billion hryvnia ($87 million) on October 6, the agency decided to issue the reassessment before the date in order "to reflect adverse deterioration in its credit profile." This news item appeared on the Russia Today website at 12:38 p.m. Moscow time on their Wednesday afternoon, which was 4:38 a.m. in New York.  It's the second story

U.S. Fed in no rush to increase interest rates Posted: 08 Oct 2014 11:14 PM PDT U.S. Fed in no rush to increase interest rates The Federal Reserve's debate on its interest rate guidance heated up last month, with several officials showing concern about misleading investors and pushing for a more data-dependent approach, according to minutes from its last policy meeting. But as the Fed grapples with how to communicate its view on hiking rates, the minutes also show concern about the rising dollar, slowing inflation, and economic turmoil in Europe and Asia, factors that support the U.S. central bank's current of keeping policy accommodation in place for the near future. "The concern was raised that the reference to 'considerable time' in the current forward guidance could be misunderstood as a commitment rather than as data dependent," said the minutes of the Fed's September 16-17 meeting, which were released on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar, which has risen in the last 12 weeks, trimmed gains from earlier on Wednesday. Yields on Treasury bonds dipped, while U.S. stocks rose, suggesting investors read the minutes as dovish. This news item showed up on the Australian Internet site theage.com.au at 7:06 a.m. local time on their Thursday morning.

No interest rate increases ever, Rickards says; Bloomberg anchor cites gold manipulation Posted: 08 Oct 2014 11:14 PM PDT No interest rate increases ever, Rickards says; Bloomberg anchor cites gold manipulation Interviewed this week by Bloomberg News TV, fund manager and geopolitical analyst James G. Rickards contends that interest rates are unlikely ever to be raised again in his lifetime. He says that as the composition of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System changes in January and becomes more supportive of easy money and as the U.S. economy remains so weak, the Fed is likely to launch another round of "quantitative easing" next year. When the interview turns to gold, one of the Bloomberg anchors remarks in passing that "some would say" central banks "manipulate" it -- though of course, since he is a financial journalist, he can't be expected to do any research as to whether there's any truth in what "some say." Rickards notes the "enormous" demand for gold from China and says "the gold available to support the paper market is shrinking." This video interview appeared in this column yesterday, but in light of the Fed minutes, I thought it worth posting again---complete with the above introductory paragraphs by GATA's Chris Powell.  The interview is 8 minutes long.

Tocqueville's Hathaway: China has it right about gold and the dollar Posted: 08 Oct 2014 11:14 PM PDT Tocqueville's Hathaway: China has it right about gold and the dollar Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway's third-quarter letter to investors details how the fundamentals for a much stronger gold price remain in place, and he cites many of the developments to which GATA has called attention in recent weeks. Hathaway's letter concludes: "We take comfort that our positive view of the future dollar gold price is shared by those who understand the difference between synthetic and physical metal and who regard the real substance as a matter of strategic imperative, not as a plaything for macro traders. We believe that China's negative assessment of the future prospects for the U.S. dollar is correct and that our investment strategy of investing in the shares of value-creating gold miners offers sensible and dynamic exposure to the inevitable repricing of gold in U.S. dollars." This gold-related story was the headline to my Tuesday column.  But as reader James Hanson so kindly pointed out yesterday, I had an entirely different story linked to it.  So I'm posting it again here, with the right link this time.  And as I said on Tuesday, it's a must read.

Gold: Time to Prepare for Big Gains? Posted: 08 Oct 2014 11:14 PM PDT Gold: Time to Prepare for Big Gains? Years of a severe downturn in the gold market have left very few bulls to speak out in favor of the yellow metal. Here are some positive opinions on the future of the precious metal, from the recently concluded Casey Research Fall Summit. David Tice, founder of the Prudent Bear Fund, believes we are heading for a “global currency reset” that will reduce the role of the dollar in global trade. Central banks, he says, don’t possess all the gold they claim to, and the unwinding of the paper gold market probably isn’t far down the road—it could even ignite the next major crisis. The paper gold market (for example, exchange-traded funds like GLD) has massive leverage, with a ratio of 90:1 or 100:1 of paper claims on gold bullion. If only a small fraction of owners convert their paper to physical gold, says Tice, it will create a “no bid” price environment and cause the price of gold to explode. He believes that once the paper gold market collapses, gold will be priced on the basis of supply/demand for the physical metal—which means it could be headed for $3,000 to $8,000 per ounce. This commentary, which is worth reading, appeared on the Casey Research website yesterday.

Swiss vote on central bank gold could limit manipulation Posted: 08 Oct 2014 11:14 PM PDT Swiss vote on central bank gold could limit manipulation GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and your secretary/treasurer are quoted in a report by Alex Newman in The New American magazine about Switzerland's forthcoming referendum on repatriating the country's gold reserves and converting 20 percent of the country's foreign exchange reserves into gold. The report is headlined "Swiss Vote on Central Bank Gold Could Limit Manipulation" and it's posted at The New American. Yes, The New American is the organ of the John Birch Society, which Wikipedia says is considered extremist for supporting limited government and opposing communism. Since GATA not only supports limited government and opposes communism but also advocates accountability for government officials, transparency for government operations, and free markets, God only knows how unattractively we can be characterized. This commentary, with two embedded links, was posted on the gata.org Internet site yesterday.

London gold fix price manipulation confirmed by Australian researchers Posted: 08 Oct 2014 11:14 PM PDT London gold fix price manipulation confirmed by Australian researchers Another statistical study has concluded that the bullion banks involved in the London daily gold price fixing long have manipulated the price, apparently front-running their clients' trades. The new study, published in the September issue of the Journal of Futures Markets was conducted by a Ph.d student at the University of West Australia in Perth, Andrew Caminschi, and his professor, Richard Heaney, and was described in a report published this week in Perth's newspaper, The West Australian. This excellent story, in pdf format, was printed in the paper this past weekend---and was posted in a GATA release yesterday.  It's a must read.

Swiss gold referendum at end of November could start prices heading to the moon Posted: 08 Oct 2014 08:28 PM PDT Switzerland is holding a referendum on gold on November 30th that could transform the outlook for gold prices. If it passes it will mandate the central bank to hold a minimum of 20 per cent of foreign reserves in gold against 7.7 per cent today, stop its gold sales and repatriate all Swiss-owned gold. Pegging the Swiss franc to the euro has come at a high price in terms of house price inflation and there is a national concern about runaway monetary policy taking hold. Switzerland has always been one of the most conservative nations in Europe as well as the richest. Gold sold off However, its central bank sold off 60 per cent of Swiss gold reserves in the 2000s. In order to beef up its gold reserves to 20 per cent of foreign exchange reserves experts say Switzerland would need to buy 500 tonnes per annum for the next three years. The impact of central bank buying on that scale would have a marked effect on the price of the yellow metal. Who would be be next? Some other central banks from small, rich countries? The UAE as the Switzerland of the Middle East perhaps? Would every billionaire on earth want his or her own private stash? Often it takes such a landmark event to get markets moving and the gold price has been so manipulated down by central bank collusion that it would not really be such a surprise if it took one of them being forced to break ranks to really get the price heading to the moon. Many analysts will tell you gold should be at least three times higher in price than it is today because of this manipulation. Take it off and the elastic band will snap back with a surge to much higher prices. $3,500 an ounce would only be the first stage of this rocket. Price rebalancing It is simply a rebalancing of global asset prices to account for inflation that is long overdue. By getting there first the Swiss would benefit most, and that fact will not be lost on voters in the referendum on November 30th either. They may not listen to the protestations from their finance minister and central bankers about the possible adverse consequences and instead trust in their instincts that gold is real money and a country as rich as Switzerland ought to have a gold-backed currency. That is what Switzerland will be voting about on November 30th.

The Calm Before the Storm in the Gold Market Posted: 08 Oct 2014 04:57 PM PDT Gold sentiment is at a historic low. With more and more articles coming out with titles like "Gold Dies," I am convinced we are seeing a major bottom being created. Read….. The Calm Before the Storm in the Gold Market

Demand Explodes, Part 3: Indian War Elephants are Unleashed! Posted: 08 Oct 2014 03:45 PM PDT Silver isn't just a bargain in relation to gold's value, it's now a bargain related to gold's tax in India! Thanks in large part to India raising taxes on gold, in 2013, Indian silver demand hit a monstrous 6,125 tonnes! That's just under 200 million ounces of silver!  That means that Indians sucked in nearly […] The post Demand Explodes, Part 3: Indian War Elephants are Unleashed! appeared first on Silver Doctors. Check out these similar articles: Step Aside India, China will Buy that Gold Koos Jansen’s Exhaustive Summary of the Chinese Gold Market Eric Sprott: One More Sign of Manipulation in the Gold Market

Serious Financial Trouble Is Erupting In Germany And Japan Posted: 08 Oct 2014 03:40 PM PDT There are some who believe that the next great financial crash will not begin in the United States.  Instead, they are convinced that a financial crisis that begins in Europe or in Japan (or both) will end up spreading across the globe and take down the U.S. too.  Time will tell if they are ultimately correct, but even now there are signs that financial trouble is already starting to erupt in both Germany and Japan.  German stocks have declined 10 percent since July, and that puts them in "correction" territory.  In Japan, the economy is a total mess right now.  According to figures that were just released, Japanese GDP contracted at a 7.1 percent annualized rate during the second quarter and private consumption contracted at a 19 percent annualized rate.  Could a financial collapse in either of those nations be the catalyst that sets off financial dominoes all over the planet? This week, the worst German industrial production figure since 2009 rattled global financial markets.  Germany is supposed to be the economic "rock" of Europe, but at this point that "rock" is starting to show cracks. And certainly the civil war in Ukraine and the growing Ebola crisis are not helping things either.  German investors are becoming increasingly jittery, and as I mentioned above the German stock market has already declined 10 percent since July... German stocks, weighed down by the economic fallout spawned by the Ukraine-Russia crisis and the eurzone's weak economy, are now down more than 10% from their July peak and officially in correction territory. The DAX, Germany's benchmark stock index, has succumbed to recent data points that show the German economy has ground to a halt, hurt in large part by the economic sanctions levied at its major trading partner, Russia, by the U.S. and European Union as a way to get Moscow to butt out of Ukraine's affairs. The economic slowdown in the rest of the debt-hobbled eurozone has also hurt the German economy, considered the economic locomotive of Europe. In trading today, the DAX fell as low as 8960.43, which put it down 10.7% from its July 3 closing high of 10,029.43 and off nearly 11% from its June 20 intraday peak of 10,050.98. And when you look at some of the biggest corporate names in Germany, things look even more dramatic. Just check out some of these numbers... The hardest hit sectors have been retailers, industrials and leisure stocks with sports clothing giant Adidas down 37.7pc for the year, airline Lufthansa down 27pc, car group Volkswagen sliding 23.6pc and Deutchse Bank falling 20.2pc so far this year. Meanwhile, things in Japan appear to be going from bad to worse. The government of Japan is more than a quadrillion yen in debt, and it has been furiously printing money and debasing the yen in a desperate attempt to get the Japanese economy going again. Unfortunately for them, it is simply not working.  The revised economic numbers for the second quarter were absolutely disastrous.  The following comes from a Japanese news source... On an annualized basis, the GDP contraction was 7.1 percent, compared with 6.8 percent in the preliminary estimate. That makes it the worst performance since early 2009, at the height of the global financial crisis. The blow from the first stage of the sales tax hike in April extended into this quarter, with retail sales and household spending falling in July. The administration signaled last week that it is prepared to boost stimulus to help weather a second stage of the levy scheduled for October 2015. Corporate capital investment dropped 5.1 percent from the previous quarter, more than double the initial estimate of 2.5 percent. Private consumption was meanwhile revised to a 5.1 percent drop from the initial reading of 5 percent, meaning it sank 19 percent on an annualized basis from the previous quarter, rather than the initial estimate of 18.7 percent, Monday's report said. For the moment, things are looking pretty good in the United States. But as I have written about so many times, our financial markets are perfectly primed for a fall. Other experts see things the same way.  Just consider what John Hussman wrote recently... As I did in 2000 and 2007, I feel obligated to state an expectation that only seems like a bizarre assertion because the financial memory is just as short as the popular understanding of valuation is superficial: I view the stock market as likely to lose more than half of its value from its recent high to its ultimate low in this market cycle. … At present, however, market conditions couple valuations that are more than double pre-bubble norms (on historically reliable measures) with clear deterioration in market internals and our measures of trend uniformity. None of these factors provide support for the market here. In my view, speculators are dancing without a floor. And it isn't just stocks that could potentially be on the verge of a massive decline.  The bond market is also experiencing an unprecedented bubble right now.  And when that bubble bursts, the carnage will be unbelievable.  This has become so obvious that even CNBC is talking about it... Picture this: The bond market gets spooked by a sudden interest rate scare, sending a throng of buyers streaming toward the exits, only to find a dearth of buyers on the other side. As a result, liquidity evaporates, yields soar, and the U.S. finds itself smack in the middle of another debt crisis no one saw coming. It's a scenario that TABB Group fixed income head Anthony J. Perrotta believes is not all that far-fetched, considering the market had what could be considered a sneak preview in May 2013. That was the "taper tantrum," which saw yields spike and stocks sell off after then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made remarks that the market construed as indicating rates would rise sooner than expected. If the strength of our financial markets reflected overall strength in the U.S. economy there would not be nearly as much cause for concern. But at this point our financial markets have become completely and totally divorced from economic reality. The truth is that our economic fundamentals continue to decay.  In fact, the IMF says that China now has the largest economy on the planet on a purchasing power basis.  The era of American economic dominance is ending.  It is just that the financial markets have not gotten the memo yet. Hopefully we still have at least a few more months before stock markets all over the world start crashing.  But remember, we are entering the seventh year of the seven year cycle of economic crashes that so many people are talking about these days.  And we are definitely primed for a global financial collapse. Sadly, most people did not see the crash of 2008 coming, and most people will not see the next one coming either.

October 8/GLD falls by 5.39 tonnes/SLV remains constant/gold and silver rise on beige book report/ Posted: 08 Oct 2014 03:30 PM PDT

October 8/GLD falls by 5.39 tonnes/SLV remains constant/gold and silver rise on beige book report/ Posted: 08 Oct 2014 03:30 PM PDT

October 8/GLD falls by 5.39 tonnes/SLV remains constant/gold and silver rise on beige book report/ Posted: 08 Oct 2014 03:30 PM PDT

Oct 8GLD loses another 5.39 tonnes down to 762.08 tonnes/no change in SLV/gold and silver skyrocket on dovish news from the Fed/Yellen states that the dollar is too high/USA worried about global business climate/ Posted: 08 Oct 2014 03:27 PM PDT

Silver Offers More Value Than Gold In This Market Posted: 08 Oct 2014 03:12 PM PDT As silver prices started to decline last year, silver mining companies halted projects where costs were too high in relation to the new reality of silver prices. According to a report produced for the Silver Institute and created by Thomson Reuters GFMS, in 2013, the silver supply fell to 985.1 million ounces, down from 1,005.3 million ounces a year earlier—a two-percent drop in production. (Source: The Silver Institute web site, last accessed October 1, 2014.) But demand for silver was increasing over the same period. While silver prices were declining (from the same report), demand for silver in 2013 increased 13% to 1,081 million ounces, compared to 954 million ounces in 2012. Demand for silver coins and bars jumped 76% in 2013 over 2012! As silver prices fell, investors bought more silver. The chart below compares gold bullion prices (golden line) and silver prices (grey line) over the last year. Looking at this chart, you will make one key observation: while gold bullion prices still remain above their December 2013 lows, silver prices have broken below their 2013 lows and are down more than 10% year-to-date. Looking at this, I ask: has anything changed for silver? The only change is that the media is telling us the economy is doing better; hence, investors are not buying into the precious metal sector. But the reality of the situation is that the supply of silver in the market is declining, while demand is rising by the double-digits. Pessimism towards the "poor man's gold" has gone too far. In fact, I'm expecting silver to provide investors with a better return than gold bullion over the next 24 months. If gold bullion prices were to return to their high of $1,900 an ounce, the gain from today's gold bullion prices would be 60%. If silver were to return to its high of $50.00 an ounce (achieved in 2011)—the gains from silver's current trading level would be 194%. The more the precious metal mining sector is shunned by investors, the greater the opportunity. The shares of well-known silver miners are selling for deep discounts. I don't believe these prices will stay low for much longer.   Author: Michael Lombardi from Profitconfidential.com

BO POLNY: Triple Bottom a Prelude to Runaway Gold & Silver Bull Markets Posted: 08 Oct 2014 02:30 PM PDT Gold has placed a triple 2-year chart bottom at $1180 and will NOT break. Gold sits on the rising support line from back from 2000 – 2001 when the Bull Market began. Buying Gold today in the very low $1200 range is equivalent to buying Gold back in 2001 when it was $255. All truth […] The post BO POLNY: Triple Bottom a Prelude to Runaway Gold & Silver Bull Markets appeared first on Silver Doctors. Check out these similar articles: Open Interest in Silver Declines Another 387 Contracts BO POLNY: The Secret 21 Year Gold Cycle That Leads to World Commodity Bull Market Breakouts in 2014 BO POLNY: $2000 Gold, Next Stop! 7-Year Gold Cycle Targets $5,000 & $333 Silver

Truth, Consequences, and Confiscations Posted: 08 Oct 2014 02:00 PM PDT I think it’s normal to have doubts – especially in rigged markets like this.  Stockholm Syndrome creeps in and we begin questioning everything. Submitted by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, Silver Coin Investor:  Commenting on these markets over the last decade, I often wonder how long they can keep it all together.  The entire house of cards […] The post Truth, Consequences, and Confiscations appeared first on Silver Doctors. Check out these similar articles: Watch the CFTC’s Meeting on Discussion of ‘SWAPS’ LIVE Fed Minutes: “BROAD SUPPORT FOR BERNANKE TAPERING” BARBAROUS RELIQUARY: The "China Meme" … An Elephant In The Room – Part 3

Fed Smacks Dollar; Europe and Japan Lose Hope Posted: 08 Oct 2014 01:56 PM PDT The Fed spoke today and as usual it made news — though this time it might actually be real news: FOMC's fear of a strong dollar drives greenback lower NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The U.S. dollar turned lower against rivals Wednesday afternoon after the FOMC released minutes from its September meeting, revealing that members raised concerns that a one-two punch of a strong dollar and stagnant growth abroad could impede U.S. growth. The closely followed central bank minutes also showed that several Fed officials wanted to remove language indicating that short-term interest rates would likely remain low "for a considerable time," but held off in part because of concern that the market would misinterpret it as a policy shift. Worries about tepid growth in Europe and Japan could relieve pressure on the Fed to raise rates sooner rather than later but already have been weighing on the greenback. Really bad news for Europe and Japan Check out the stock market’s volatility since the dollar has been rising. In normal times 200 point moves on the Dow are pretty notable. But they’ve happened in four of the past six sessions: One explanation for this surge in volatility is that the dollar is spiking at a time when stocks are priced for perfection, producing Fear (that an appreciating currency will price US exports out of world markets and make domestic debts harder to manage) to contend with the Greed generated by a long bull market. The Fed understands the risk posed by a surging dollar and is using it as an excuse to do what it wants to do in any event: continue to hold interest rates at artificially low levels and keep the helicopter money flowing. US equity markets loved this reprieve, of course. But now the question becomes: If too-strong currencies helped to push Europe and Japan back into recession, and weaker currencies (versus the dollar) were those economies’ main hope for avoiding an ugly deflationary crash, then what does the Fed’s desire to keep a lid on the dollar mean? The answer isn’t pretty. If the dollar goes down from here that’s the same thing as saying the yen and euro go up. And if those currencies rise, Japan and Europe are toast. So this story has just begun, and the next chapter is likely to involve some seriously desperate/experimental actions from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan.

Microdocumentary: 4 Major Boom And Bust Cycles Explained Posted: 08 Oct 2014 01:30 PM PDT Most believe that expansionary monetary policy helps ease crises. Austrian School economists argue that central banks don't help in smoothing the amplitude of the cycles, but rather are the cause of cycles. In this microdocumentary video, we look back at four major busts in the last 100 years and explain how central banks created them. We also clarify why we believe the next bust is just around the corner. This video will not explain the mainstream view, but rather the view of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT). Austrian economists argue that business cycles are a direct cause of excessive credit flow into the market. This is facilitated by an intentionally low interest rate set by the government. This situation gives the false impression that money originally saved for investment has increased and the pool of investable funds is bigger. This creates an illusion and leads to misallocation of investments or 'malinvestments'. By manipulating interest rates, governments create bubbles. Austrian Business Cycle Theory argues that credit inflation is a distortion of what is actually available to support current production and consumption levels. That is why a correction is inevitable. Austrian economist Mises warned that the longer malinvestments continue, the more aggressive the correction becomes. A recession arrives when the economy readjusts as consumers come to reestablish their desired allocation of saving at prevailing interest rates. That is when consumers decide to save more and consume less. In such a market correction, everything goes down. It is a reversal of the inflationary pick up during the boom. This microdocumentary video examines in detail 4 major booms in the last 100 years and explains how monetary policy and interest rate manipulation has led to the inevitable bust: The great depression of the 30ies The recession of the 90ies The dot com bubble The housing bubble This video was created by Global Gold Switzerland. Global Gold offers exclusive research reports, available on request without any further obligation.

Gold rally may be precursor to further weakness Posted: 08 Oct 2014 01:17 PM PDT Elliot Wave analysis shows that a gold rally will occur only in corrective phase.

This One Chart Shows Exactly How Undervalued Gold is Right Now… Posted: 08 Oct 2014 01:00 PM PDT Just exactly how undervalued is gold right now around $1200/oz? As the chart below shows, the last time gold was this undervalued relative to US debt, the price of gold quintupled. Submitted by Tim Price, Sovereign Man:  For the benefit of anyone living under a rock these past weeks, Bill Gross, the so-called "Bond King" […] The post This One Chart Shows Exactly How Undervalued Gold is Right Now… appeared first on Silver Doctors. Check out these similar articles: Jim Grant: We're in an Era of 'Central Bank Worship' Jim Willie: Flash Trading Hits USTreasury Bonds Jim Willie: US T-Bond Market: The Greatest Asset Bubble in Human History Nears the Cliff

Protected: Big Reversal in the Gold Stocks… Posted: 08 Oct 2014 12:19 PM PDT This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below: Password: The post Protected: Big Reversal in the Gold Stocks… appeared first on The Daily Gold.

FOMC Minutes Chasing Gold Bears out Posted: 08 Oct 2014 12:16 PM PDT Take a look at the 30 minute chart of gold. Note the huge volume spike coming on the heels of the FOMC minutes. It is quite evident that the Fed is chasing the gold bears out of the gold market. I have maintained for some time now and am on record as stating that I believed and still believe that the Fed might actually come around to the point where they would welcome a higher gold price. Not a soaring gold price mind you, but one that is firmer. Why is that? Simple - because the Fed, and this Fed in particular, is terrified of deflation. They really do believe that they can control inflation but that they are powerless to stop deflation. Their weapon of choice to fight deflation has been QE but that has not worked or perhaps a bit more kindly, has proven to have been ineffective at generating an inflation rate of 2% or more. This is why I have continued to take exception to those who see every single move lower in the gold price as part of a sinister plan on the part of the monetary authorities to discredit it. Let's just ask a simple question and think about this: What would have happened to gold had the Fed said that it was pleased to see the stronger Dollar and not concerned at all about a disinflationary wave moving around the global and threatening to swamp the global economy? Answer - gold would have been obliterated and the Dollar would have soared. Question? Did the Fed say this? Answer- No, they did not. They said the exact opposite. And what happened? Answer - gold shot higher. Is it not obvious to any open-minded person that if the Fed were currently at war with gold, that they would not clearly understand in advance what a set of minutes such as were released today would do to the gold price? Of course they do. They are not stupid people. They can read price charts and see trends as good as the rest of us technicians. The facts are that the Fed WANTS INFLATION and right now it cannot seem to get it. A falling gold price threatens to send that signal very clearly. So does a soaring Dollar. What to do therefore? Why just talk down the Dollar. That is what they are trying to do with this latest release of their minutes. Will it work? I doubt it; mainly because by comparison, even if the Fed is not in a hurry to raise rates, the US economy looks great compared to Eurozone and Japan. Also, the Fed's policy stance on interest rates is HEAVILY DATA DEPENDENT. What this means is that as we move forward in time, each successive batch of economic news about the US economy is going to be closely scrutinized to see whether or not it will be of sufficient strength to force the hand of the Fed on the interest rate front. What happens if we get another jobs report that the market (rightly or wrongly) interprets as very strong? Just remember what happened last Friday to the Dollar when that jobs data hit and came in higher than most in the market were anticipating. The Dollar shot vertical and gold dropped vertical. The more things change, the more they seem to remain the same, at least as far as these goofy markets are concerned any more. Once again we are right back to where we always seem to end up and that is to watching economic data and playing a guessing game with our illustrious Federal Reserve official of: "Will they or Will they Not" raise interest rates. Sigh! Is this anyway to run an economy ... my oh my has this nation declined. Here is a chart of the gold market ( short term 30 minute). Note the scare given the gold bears by the Fed. Also note that we have a temporary bottom on this chart near $1205 and a temporary top near and extending from $1220-$1225. Those are the parameters that we are now dealing with as traders. Upside breach of the resistance sets up gold for a pop towards $1240. Downside breach sets it up for a test of $1200 and then lower once more. Buyers have clearly been at work today near $1205 but sellers appear to be trying to make a stand near $1220. Short term indicators are positive. Also, the huge rally in the gold shares CANNOT be ignored. Gold bears be careful right now.

Stocks, gold, and the dollar had BIG reversals today. Here’s why… Posted: 08 Oct 2014 12:12 PM PDT From Bloomberg:  Federal Reserve policy makers at their last meeting said a global slowdown and a stronger dollar posed potential risks to the outlook for the U.S. economy. A number of participants said growth “might be slower than they expected if foreign economic growth came in weaker than anticipated,” according to minutes of the Sept. 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released today in Washington. Stocks rose and the dollar was lower as investors speculated that caution over the economic outlook would lead the Fed to keep interest rates near zero for longer. “This is dovish with capital letters from beginning to end,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at primary dealer Jefferies Group LLC in New York. Officials cautioned that spillover from Europe’s cooling economy and low inflation could boost the dollar further, curbing U.S. exports, and restrain price gains that have lagged behind the Fed’s 2 percent goal. “Some participants expressed concern that the persistent shortfall of economic growth and inflation in the euro area could lead to a further appreciation of the dollar and have adverse effects on the U.S. external sector,” the minutes said. The International Monetary Fund yesterday cut its outlook for global growth in 2015 to 3.8 percent from a July forecast of 4 percent. It saw U.S. growth of 3.1 percent next year. Gold rose and the dollar fell. Gold was up 0.7 percent $1,216.82 per ounce at 2:38 p.m. in New York and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, was down 0.4 percent. Stocks Rise U.S. stocks extended gains after the minutes were released. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.3 percent to 1,960.62 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 213.99 points, or 1.3 percent, to 16,933.38. Regional Fed presidents including Atlanta’s Dennis Lockhart, New York’s William C. Dudley and Chicago’s Charles Evans have all said in the past month they are watching the dollar as officials debate the timing of the first interest-rate increase since 2006. The FOMC last month retained a pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time” after it concludes an asset purchase program that’s due to end after its October meeting. “Some participants saw the current forward guidance as appropriate in light of risk-management considerations, which suggested that it would be prudent to err on the side of patience while awaiting further evidence of sustained progress toward the committee’s goals,” minutes of the gathering show. “Not only are they not ready to raise rates, they don’t even want people to think they’re ready to raise rates, so it’s not even on the radar screen,” McCarthy said. Misunderstanding Worries At the same time, “the concern was raised that the reference to ‘considerable time’ in the current forward guidance could be misunderstood as a commitment rather than as data dependent,” the minutes said. Some officials have said dropping the pledge would offer more flexibility to react to new economic data. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and Philadelphia’s Charles Plosser both dissented against the September FOMC statement. The minutes showed there was a discussion on financial stability and developments including a deterioration in leveraged lending standards, stretched stock market valuations, and compressed risk spreads. Jobs Report Since last month’s FOMC statement, the September jobs report has shown that a labor-market rebound continues, with a 248,000 gain in payrolls last month after a 180,000 increase in August that was bigger than previously estimated. That pushed unemployment to a six-year low of 5.9 percent, according to the Labor Department. Other indicators, such as data on the duration of unemployment and the number of people working part time because they can’t find full-time work, still suggest slack remains in the jobs market. “The labor market has yet to fully recover,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen said at a press conference after the FOMC meeting. “There are still too many people who want jobs but can’t find them.” She added that inflation remains below the Fed’s goal. Projections released Sept. 17 show most officials foresee an interest-rate increase sometime next year. The central bank has kept its benchmark rate near zero since December 2008. Recommended Links Ron Paul: Why abolishing the income tax will make America stronger COMING SOON: Stansberry Research welcomes former Congressman Ron Paul. He'll explain – LIVE – why ending income taxes would make America a better place, and why we should abolish the Fed. Full details here. A gold strategy that MORE THAN DOUBLES bullion returns Since 2001, gold has gone up 387%. But S&A friend and renowned gold expert says he has made 924% in that same time span… using just one simple strategy. Here's how he did it.

What Has Recent History Shown About Inflation, Debt, Prosperity? Posted: 08 Oct 2014 12:03 PM PDT In the 1960s Peter, Paul and Mary popularized a song written by Pete Seeger – "Where Have All the Flowers Gone?" The short version is: Where have all the flowers gone? Young girls have picked them. Where have all the young girls gone? Gone to husbands. Where have all the husbands gone? Gone for soldiers. Where have all the soldiers gone? Gone to graveyards. Where have all the graveyards gone? Gone to flowers. And repeat. When will they ever learn? Another version of this "cycle of life" might be: Where has all the money gone? Gone to taxes. Where have all the taxes gone? Gone to governments. Where have all the governments gone? Gone to bankers for more money. Where have all the bankers gone? Gone to buy politicians. Where have all the politicians gone? Gone to buy voters. Where have all the voters gone? Gone to work for money. Where has all the money gone? Gone to taxes. And repeat. When will they ever learn? Fifty years ago we were bombing North Vietnam "back into the stone age." That worked out well for the military contractors but accomplished little for the US people. Twenty years ago we were fighting Iraq and Saddam Hussein. That worked out well for the military contractors but accomplished little for the US people. Ten years ago we were fighting in Iraq. That worked out well for the military contractors but accomplished little for the US people. Today we are still bombing Iraq. Who will benefit and what will this accomplish? When will they ever learn? For perspective, here are some approximate prices that show the consequences of warfare and welfare:   When will they ever learn? Looking ahead: Wars will continue but may not be decisively won or lost. Debt and currency in circulation will rise exponentially. Consumer prices will continue increasing. Gold, silver, crude oil, gasoline and food will become much more expensive. Voters will continue voting for politicians and wars even though both cause prices to rise. The number of Americans on food stamps (SNAP) will continue rising. Unemployment statistics will fall in election years but the actual number of Americans working full-time jobs will decline. When will they ever learn?   Additional Reading James Quinn Bread and Circuses Bill Holter Silver Arbitrage Gary Christenson My new book on gold prices Gary Christenson | The Deviant Investor | GEChristenson.com

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