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- MUST READ: The World Has Less Than 5 Days Worth Of Copper Inventories
- James Altucher: This unusual chart saved my life
- Solfernino Mine's irresistible offer: Gold for $650 per ounce
- Blowing Away The Orwellian Fog – Dave Kranzler
- Propaganda 101 – How The Pentagon Is Trying To Rewrite Vietnam War History
- China: Higher 2013 gold demand and import figures now confirmed
- Gold resumes rebound amid economic worries
- Homebuilders Setting Up For Another Short Entry
- International demand for gold continues surging
- Did The U.S. Economy Hit A Wall This Summer?
- Metals market update for October 22
- India's gold jewelry purchases clock 15% growth
- Indian festive season sells out gold and silver
- The Hidden Agenda Behind The Ebola Scare
- Gold miners' forward sales jump 61% in Q2 - report
- “Rate Hikes & Gold” – Stewart Thomson
- Unsung gold miner nears million oz/year mark
- An ebola Armageddon could trigger a rebirth in gold/silver
- India Gold Demand Surges 450% and Bank of Russia Demand At 15 Year High
- India Gold Demand Surges 450% and Bank of Russia Demand At 15 Year High
- Silver price off but rest of precious metals consolidating
- Comex warehouse kilobar movements
- James G. Rickards: In the Year 2024
- First Swiss Gold Poll Shows Pro-Gold Side in Lead at 45%
- UBS: Swiss Gold Exports At 7-Month High; Physical Demand Absorbing Investor Liquidations
- Dhanteras Sales Jump 20% over Lower Gold, Silver Prices
- Chinese and Indian Gold Buyers Back in Market in a Big Way
- Top Bullion Consumer China Works on First Gold Forwards, Options
- Chinese and Indian Gold Buyers Back in the Market in a Big Way
- Gold & Silver Trading Alert: How Will We Know That the Bottom Is In?
- PM Fund Manager: The GLD Gold Vault is Being Drained
- Gold reaches 1st weekly target resistance but CPI report will be Wednesday key event
- Harvey Organ’s Gold & Silver Update: China is Ready to Pounce!
- Comfort, Karma, and Money Velocity
- In Uncharted Waters
- Gold Stalling Out?
- Copper, nickel, and zinc won't be cheap for long
- Russia Adds A Record 1.2 Mio Ounces Gold To Its Reserves
- Ukraine crisis update: A “brutal winter” is coming
- Real interest rates have a real influence on gold
| MUST READ: The World Has Less Than 5 Days Worth Of Copper Inventories Posted: 22 Oct 2014 12:45 PM PDT According to the financial media, the global economy is supposedly rolling over causing a glut of inventories producing a deflation in the prices of many commodities. If this is the case… someone should tell that to King of base metals… Copper. Something doesn't seem to be making sense in the copper market as the price continues […] The post MUST READ: The World Has Less Than 5 Days Worth Of Copper Inventories appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| James Altucher: This unusual chart saved my life Posted: 22 Oct 2014 12:41 PM PDT From James Altucher: 90% of the feedback I got about “Choose Yourself” was about one thing: How to bridge harsh reality with the world of imagination… Or “How to become an Idea Machine.” For my whole life, I felt like a stray dog, dashing around until I could survive in the jungle. But I was lost and it took a long time. And I get it. I was dead on the ground. I was broke. I was separated. I was fired. I was scared. Scared and lonely. Everywhere I looked I couldn’t believe people knew how to smile. They were faking it, I thought. In “Choose Yourself,” I describe the first tiny steps I took to get off the ground. Well, actually, the second. Because the first was horribly embarrassing. I pretended to be a psychic on Craigslist just so I could make friends. But ignore that. I was lonely and just needed to reach out into space. Specifically, I tried to improve physically, emotionally, mentally, and spiritually each day. Just a little bit each day. The 1% rule. Improve 1% a day. They are all equally important. If you sit on a four-legged chair, you are firm on the ground. A three-legged chair, and a strong wind will blow you over. And below that, you fall easily. But ideas are the currency of this economy. NOTHING else. Which drove me to my next book, “The Choose Yourself Guide to Wealth, ” where I focus a lot more on ideas:
This is not a self-help book. It’s exactly what I did for myself. I know it worked for me. I had ideas first, wealth second. It ONLY worked in that direction. At my worst moments, I had no ideas. All I could do was work on the ideas for others, even bad ideas, because I needed a paycheck. Then I had bad ideas. But bad ideas come back at you with loan shark prices and you HAVE to pay. Good ideas are a link between the real world and the world of myths and dreams. I needed to survive, I needed to pay for my family. I was going through a divorce. I was dating people maybe not so good for me. I was miserable all the time and I was scared it was only going to get worse. And often it did get worse. Often there is no bottom until you make the active effort to climb out of the hole which I did by keeping my health up and being only around people who loved me and who I loved. But then I created the attached image. This is when I finally took the red pill instead of the blue pill: THE IDEA MATRIX:
And ever since, my life has 100% changed every six months. I can’t even believe the ways in which it has changed. I can’t say better or worse. But I’m not crying on the floor anymore, pretending to be a psychic. — The bottom axis starts off when you are working solely on the ideas of others. This is not necessarily bad, but it basically means you are an employee and you are an idea slave to someone else’s whims. You could get fired. Your boss could have bad ideas and go broke. There is no loyalty. You are not in control. You feel “stuck” all the time. On the top right is when you are an idea machine: you are non-stop working on good ideas that help the lives of others. You mind dips into dreams and you make them reality or art or abundance. Peter Thiel underlined this for me when he told me the story of Mark Zuckerberg turning down Yahoo’s offer of $1 billion. Zuckerberg would’ve made $250 million. Peter wanted him to take, or at least consider, the idea. Zuckerberg decided in ten minutes time: “No.” As Peter put it: ideas were more valuable to Mark than money. Not everyone is going to create Facebook. I never will. But everyone could create abundance in this upper right corner. Wealth is the side effect of being an idea machine. — I’ve been at the bottom left corner many times. When I was working a job where I’d keep my office door locked all day long. I had to write an instruction manual for some chip. I was horrible at it. You see how many grammar mistakes I make in these posts? I was worse then. My boss even called me into his office and yelled at me, “Don’t you take any pride in your work?” I’d leave work at 4:45 on the dot every day so I could hitchhike home. I wrote horrible novels at night. I hung out with my friends. I lived with a woman I didn’t love. Nothing was going well. I was an idea slave. Many employees are at the bottom left. They get their paycheck, their hours are filled from 9-5 or more just working on the bad ideas of others. This is not a natural state for human beings. We NEED to explore. We’re curious. We want to adapt constantly to new environments and use the part of our brain that evolved specifically so we could create new works of art or production. But we’ve been fooled into thinking by a century of corporatism that if we just “pay our dues” and climb “the ladder” then there is a pot of gold at the end. This loyalty never really existed and is now gone forever as people slowly adapt to a new world. — In the bottom right: where you have bad ideas but you are giving ideas to others. Many professions exist here: lawyers and stockbrokers are the most common. Tons of ideas but they are usually bad. This is not such a horrible thing for society. But it requires the customers to be aware of the hidden agendas of the lawyers and brokers (the fees, being charged by the hour, etc). Not all lawyers and brokers are bad. But their job is to give you a ton of ideas and hope for the best. “Where Are The Customers Yachts?” is a famous book about this corner. When I’ve been a consultant for companies trying to figure out what to do with their websites, I was mostly in this category. Lots of ideas, most of them bad, but I needed the client to say “Yes,” so I could charge for more websites. Getting HBO to pay $75,000 for a three-page website about Dennis Miller was my crowning achievement as a bottom-righter. — At the top left is when you are working on good ideas but based off of other people’s ideas. Whoever created Gmail on top of Google is in this category. Whoever buys a losing business and turns it around is here. There is money here, just not as much as the upper right. I was in this category when I worked at HBO. I was initially hired to do some basic computer programming for them (idea slave), but then I started pitching them ideas that I could do for their website. I was still under their umbrella, but I was able to become an “entre-ployee” by working on good ideas within the umbrella idea of “HBO.” I made more money this way, had some fun, got some promotions, but I was still an employee. — See in the middle where it says “disobedience”? I don’t mean like a kid running away from home for the first time. Because the kid always comes back. I came back. Again and again. This is where you break free from the system. Where you realize that everything is a stage set and now it’s time to get to work. This is where you say “sorry,” instead of asking for permission. This is where you wake up and everyone’s attached to a tube and you pull the tube out and maybe then, just like in the movies, you learn karate and fall in love. — At the top right is the IDEA MACHINE. Nothing can stop you. This is where abundance is. This is where seeds are planted. This is where you dip into other dimensions not yet created. A few months ago, I wrote Amazon a list: 10 Ideas for Amazon to Improve their Self-publishing division. They liked the list. They flew me out there, showed me all the different departments, showed me what they were working on, and it was a lot of fun. I even took a photo of the very first Starbucks. They didn’t pay me, but I got to meet everyone, I got to be at the center of the universe for publishing, and I planted a seed. Who knows where those seeds can grow in the future and what abundance can be created. The top-righter idea machine plants lots of seeds… Builds many bridges into the world of dreams. But we have to pay the bills. I’ve also made a lot of money in this area. One time I had a set of ideas for a company. They invited me to go on their board where I ended up making a lot of money as they implemented my ideas. This has happened to me many many times. Just yesterday I spoke to someone and gave him five ideas for how he could build a substantial business. I didn’t mention my involvement at all. But if he does well, I’ll do well. It always works out this way. Every day, I try to plant seeds. What about big companies, like Facebook or Apple. Are they in this quadrant? Of course! Facebook is a great example: they set up the platform so that everyone can aggregate information about their identity into one place. They basically generate non-stop ideas for a billion different people around the world who want to communicate and share their online identities. Despite all the complaints you read in the media, everyone I know uses Facebook, including the people making the complaints. — Claudia asked me about Marcus Lemonis, who stars in The Profit and I’ve been begging to get on my podcast. “Where is he on this matrix?” Two places. He buys declining businesses and helps turn them around. This is in the top left: take an idea from someone else and start to throw good ideas at it. But he’s also in the top right. He’s an idea machine. He takes his simple concept of turning around companies, applies it to MANY companies and now he’s making a TV show out of it. He gets 40,000 emails for help from business each week. What a way to guarantee he has non-stop opportunities! Where are you on this matrix right now? Where can you be in six months? — When I was a kid I looked up to my dad. I thought he was an idea machine. No matter what the problem, he had a solution. If I argued back, he’d show me where I was wrong. And I was always wrong. He built up a good business and went public. But then it went bankrupt, he went broke, he got depressed, and he let it stop him. I don’t know if he ever had a good idea again. At my worst moments, I thought I was turning into him. I would cry to therapists that I was turning into him. Someone who would sit all day and do nothing until he died. They would assure me for $200/hr that I wasn’t. But how could they know? But the “daily practice” I describe everywhere gives me the energy to come up with ideas, and to come up with ideas for coming up with ideas. I write down ten ideas a day no matter what. Being scared and lonely happens in a cycle. It effects all of us. Even a little bit each day. Watching the river go into the ocean sparks a little bit of that loneliness. We’re meant to often feel lonely and scared. It allows us to re-calibrate where we are and ask the important question: Is this what I’m supposed to be doing right now? When I am most fearful is EXACTLY the time when I want my idea muscle humming, when I MUST write those ten ideas a day down and become an idea machine. It’s when I’m most scared, that I get out of bed and I know that today is the day I can do anything I want to. It’s not an affirmation. Or wishful thinking. Or the words of a song. It’s a box I check when I’m done writing my ideas down. KA-BOOM! | ||
| Solfernino Mine's irresistible offer: Gold for $650 per ounce Posted: 22 Oct 2014 11:27 AM PDT Solferino Gold Mine/Colombia Reserva De Oro will be initially mining 150,000 oz of gold, and is earmarking 40,000 oz of it to be sold at $650 an oz. Considering that gold closed yesterday at $1246, the possibility of getting it at $650/oz is unheard of. It is by far the lowest price in the world for gold today. | ||
| Blowing Away The Orwellian Fog – Dave Kranzler Posted: 22 Oct 2014 11:15 AM PDT PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler stopped by to weigh in on the ebola outbreak. We discuss the possibility of ebola being an October surprise, the reality of the number of deaths vs the reaction of the people along with the reaction from the government. We then move into a dissuasion of the current housing collapse and […] The post Blowing Away The Orwellian Fog – Dave Kranzler appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| Propaganda 101 – How The Pentagon Is Trying To Rewrite Vietnam War History Posted: 22 Oct 2014 10:00 AM PDT Submitted by Michael Krieger, Liberty Blitzkrieg: In case you weren't aware, the Pentagon is set to roll out a 50th anniversary commemoration of the Vietnam War. Personally, it's hard to get excited about commemorating an event that led to the death of over 58,000 American soldiers and more than a million Vietnamese, particularly since much of […] The post Propaganda 101 – How The Pentagon Is Trying To Rewrite Vietnam War History appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| China: Higher 2013 gold demand and import figures now confirmed Posted: 22 Oct 2014 09:40 AM PDT China's 2014 Gold yearbook states that Chinese gold demand last year came to 2,199 tonnes of which imports were 1,524 tonnes. | ||
| Gold resumes rebound amid economic worries Posted: 22 Oct 2014 09:06 AM PDT After touching a recent low of $1,183.30 on Oct. 6 in Asia, the U.S. Comex gold futures have rebounded 5.78% to $1,251.70 on Tuesday. | ||
| Homebuilders Setting Up For Another Short Entry Posted: 22 Oct 2014 09:00 AM PDT The market gods have handed us yet another opportunity to make money off of stupidity and greed. Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics: On a per structure basis, activity in multiple units starts is dwarfed by the flat to minus activity in the dominant, single unit housing starts category, which has remained […] The post Homebuilders Setting Up For Another Short Entry appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| International demand for gold continues surging Posted: 22 Oct 2014 08:25 AM PDT Demand for gold continues to be robust and has indeed increased significantly in recent weeks despite gold's most recent paper driven gold weakness. | ||
| Did The U.S. Economy Hit A Wall This Summer? Posted: 22 Oct 2014 08:00 AM PDT The economic numbers today confirm my view that the economy hit a wall this summer. The 10yr hit 1.89. Oil is plunging again – from lack of demand. These numbers reflect not just hitting the wall. These numbers are portending a collapse. Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics: Retail sales dropped .3% […] The post Did The U.S. Economy Hit A Wall This Summer? appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| Metals market update for October 22 Posted: 22 Oct 2014 07:59 AM PDT Gold climbed $2.20 or 0.18% to $1,248.30 per ounce and silver rose $0.07 or 0.4% to $17.51 per ounce yesterday. | ||
| India's gold jewelry purchases clock 15% growth Posted: 22 Oct 2014 07:48 AM PDT Jewelry shops across India witnessed increased sales on the occasion of Dhanteras. According to rough estimates, the gold purchases climbed higher by at least 15% to 20% when compared to last year. | ||
| Indian festive season sells out gold and silver Posted: 22 Oct 2014 07:39 AM PDT The sale of gold and silver coins peaked in India on the occasion of Dhanteras - considered as the most auspicious day to buy gold. | ||
| The Hidden Agenda Behind The Ebola Scare Posted: 22 Oct 2014 07:00 AM PDT Everything that happens now is happening for a reason. The people behind the scenes who are controlling our Government have implemented this incredible Ebola scare for a reason. Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics: An Ebola czar? Are you kidding me? This guy is a scumbag lawyer, who helped […] The post The Hidden Agenda Behind The Ebola Scare appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| Gold miners' forward sales jump 61% in Q2 - report Posted: 22 Oct 2014 06:04 AM PDT Analysts at Societe Generale and GFMS are predicting net hedging for the year of 40 tonnes, the most since 1999. | ||
| “Rate Hikes & Gold” – Stewart Thomson Posted: 22 Oct 2014 06:00 AM PDT Wealth in the stock market that is "here to stay", is generated by buying business cycle troughs, not peaks. While most bank economists and gold community analysts predicted a Fed taper would crush the price of gold, I suggested it would cause gold to rally, and turn the Dow into a wet noodle, and that's […] The post “Rate Hikes & Gold” – Stewart Thomson appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| Unsung gold miner nears million oz/year mark Posted: 22 Oct 2014 05:54 AM PDT Nord Gold has again seen increased Y-on-Y gold output from its operations in the FSU and West Africa. | ||
| An ebola Armageddon could trigger a rebirth in gold/silver Posted: 22 Oct 2014 04:32 AM PDT The Gold Report asks Eric Sprott how the Ebola epidemic could impact the price of precious metals and mining stocks. | ||
| India Gold Demand Surges 450% and Bank of Russia Demand At 15 Year High Posted: 22 Oct 2014 04:16 AM PDT gold.ie | ||
| India Gold Demand Surges 450% and Bank of Russia Demand At 15 Year High Posted: 22 Oct 2014 04:09 AM PDT It is safe to say that – in the event of a global monetary crisis brought on by a tsunami of insurmountable QE compounded debt – the average Indian or Chinese family will be reasonably well equipped to weather the financial and monetary storm. India Gold Demand Surges 450% and Bank of Russia Demand At 15 Year High Demand for gold continues to be robust and has indeed increased significantly in recent weeks despite gold's most recent paper driven gold weakness. Demand in China and India surged again and gold reserve diversification by the central bank of Russia hit a new record high in September as geopolitical tensions rose.
Gold imports into India in September were worth $3.8 billion. This figure is almost double the $2 billion spent by Indians in August as, once again, the Indian middle class, like their Chinese counterparts, used the opportunity of a weakened gold price to increase their holdings. This was particularly the case in recent weeks and in the run up to the Diwali festival which began yesterday with Dhanteras. To put this figure in context it is worth noting that in August 2013 gold imports were valued at just $739 million. Indian gold imports were up 449.7% y/y in September, which is approximately 94 tonnes, using the average gold price for September. From the point of view of the government in India, this level of demand for the precious metal, which must be imported, is an unwelcome development. “The trade deficit worsened to an 18-month high of $14 billion in September following a 450% rise in gold imports as importers rushed to take advantage of lower prices” reports India’s Economic Times. The government in India claims that this staggering level of demand is causing a weakening of the rupee which undermines India’s ability to import the other commodities upon which it depends. Exactly how the Indian government intend to deal with the problem is unclear. The previous attempt to control gold imports in 2013 was aborted due to it’s deep unpopularity and to the fact that vast quantities continued to be smuggled into India regardless, resulting in loss of revenue to the state. In the world's largest gold buyer China, premiums recovered to $2-$3 an ounce from $1-$2 overnight, showing higher demand and lending support to global prices. Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold withdrawals were very high this week and saw a huge rise for the week to 68.4 tonnes with most of the buying after their Golden Week holiday. Last year alone, China imported almost 2,000 tonnes of gold as seen in the important metric that is withdrawals from the SGE. To put that figure in context, global mining supply will be around 2,700 tonnes this year.
What we in the West need to appreciate is that – in the case of both India and China, where around one third of the population of the Earth reside, – it is masses of individuals, families and local businesses who are driving this demand. It is being driven particularly by the burgeoning middle classes who are accumulating whatever gold they can with their disposable income. The desire to own gold as savings and financial security is culturally embedded in these ancient cultures. Asians experience of fiat, paper currencies has not been a good one. As such, the demand is not speculative and a cyclical, short term blip. Rather, it would appear to be a long term, structural shift to higher demand. While the trend may dissipate it is very unlikely to reverse into a trend of mass selling and it is unlikely to reverse trend anytime soon given the fiscal and monetary challenges facing the Western and indeed the Eastern world. In Russia, the central bank added a very large 37.3 tonnes of the metal to it’s reserves in September – it’s largest purchase in fifteen years. It is an indication of the strategic importance that Vladimir Putin and his government place on gold that such a large amount was purchased at this time of international tensions. The rouble has been under tremendous pressure due to Western imposed sanctions and the slump in oil prices – Russia’s largest revenue source. According to the Russian Central Bank: “In the past ten days we have sold about $6 billion” to support the rouble rate, Reuters reported yesterday. And yet $1.5 billion was made available to acquire gold reserves.
It is safe to say that – in the event of a global monetary crisis brought on by a tsunami of insurmountable QE compounded debt – the average Indian or Chinese family will be reasonably well equipped to weather the financial and monetary storm. The same cannot be said, unfortunately, for their Western counterparts where ownership of tangible assets is abysmally low and only a tiny fraction of the population own gold and silver bullion. Get Breaking News and Updates on the Gold Market Here GOLDCORE MARKET UPDATE Gold climbed $2.20 or 0.18% to $1,248.30 per ounce and silver rose $0.07 or 0.4% to $17.51 per ounce yesterday.
Gold in Swiss storage or for immediate delivery lost 0.2% to $1,246.08 an ounce by 1200 in Zurich. Gold retreated from the highest in almost six weeks in dollar terms due to profit taking and renewed risk appetite which saw stocks globally bounce from their recent lows although european shares are showing weakness again this morning. Although gold continues to eke out small gains in euro, pound and other fiat currency terms. Gold reached $1,255.34 an ounce yesterday, the highest since September 10. Demand in India, the second biggest gold buyer, surged before the Diwali festival, Indian's Christmas. Diwali, the festival of lights is celebrated tomorrow and Dhanteras, the biggest gold buying festival, was celebrated yesterday. Dhanteras is considered an auspicious time to buy gold coins, bars and jewellery. Researcher CPM Group estimates the holiday generates about 20% of India's annual purchases.
Gold has risen 3.2% so far in October as stocks fell sharply and traders pushed back estimates for when the Federal Reserve might raise U.S. interest rates from near 0%. The IMF has cut its economic growth outlook this month and Fed policy makers said slowing foreign economies were a risk to U.S. expansion. Indeed, the U.S. economy itself looks very vulnerable to a recession. The Shanghai Gold Exchange is working to implement China’s first forwards and options in gold, in a race to put China as the main Asian pricing benchmark that could rival the London gold fix. The European Central Bank is planning to buy corporate bonds on the secondary market and may decide as soon as December with a view to begin purchases in early 2015. This is another sign of desperation on the part of central bankers who are attempting to kick start the structurally broken Eurozone economy. A diversified portfolio of precious metal coins and bars, owned in a segregated and allocated manner in the safest jurisdictions in the world remains very prudent. See Essential Guide to Storing Gold In Switzerland here
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| Silver price off but rest of precious metals consolidating Posted: 22 Oct 2014 02:49 AM PDT Precious metals this morning – the silver price is off 0.3% at $17.44, while the rest are consolidating. | ||
| Comex warehouse kilobar movements Posted: 22 Oct 2014 02:17 AM PDT As promised in my Monday post, below is an updated chart of kilobar movements out of Comex warehouses.  You can see the clustering of withdrawals in advance of gold bottoming, a total so far of 24 tonnes. Will be interesting to see if this works as an indicator of a bottom the next time we see a bunch of withdrawals. | ||
| James G. Rickards: In the Year 2024 Posted: 22 Oct 2014 02:05 AM PDT  James G. Rickards: In the Year 2024 Writing for The Daily Reckoning, fund manager, author, and geopolitical strategist James G. Rickards imagines life in the year 2024 as being under the totalitarian control of a world central bank that has outlawed not only gold but also markets and money itself. While Rickards' nightmare scenario is the perfectly logical consequence of the trend of central banking, we still have a few years to push the world toward a different future. Rickards' essay is headlined In the Year 2024 and it's posted at The Daily Reckoning Web site---and it falls into the absolute must-read category. [NOTE: I posted a story that critiqued Jim's article in yesterday's column. It was headlined All the world’s gold to be confiscated and buried in Switzerland by 2020 argues Jim Rickards. Now that I've read the original Rickards article, courtesy of reader Dan Lazicki, the title to the story is highly misleading, as is the author's commentary in spots, and I'm glad that I have the real deal for you today. Ed] The first two paragraph of introduction are courtesy of GATA's Chris Powell---and I found the original Rickards essay posted on the gata.org Internet site yesterday. | ||
| First Swiss Gold Poll Shows Pro-Gold Side in Lead at 45% Posted: 22 Oct 2014 02:05 AM PDT  First Swiss Gold Poll Shows Pro-Gold Side in Lead at 45% GoldCore's Mark O'Byrne reported yesterday that the first opinion poll on Switzerland's gold repatriation referendum proposal shows 45% of respondents in favor and 39% opposed. Chris Powell wrote the above---and I borrowed the headline from a GATA release as well, but the first person through the door with this story was reader U.M. | ||
| UBS: Swiss Gold Exports At 7-Month High; Physical Demand Absorbing Investor Liquidations Posted: 22 Oct 2014 02:05 AM PDT  UBS: Swiss Gold Exports At 7-Month High; Physical Demand Absorbing Investor Liquidations Swiss trade data show gold exports hit a seven-month high in September and that the flow to Eastern from Western nations continues, says UBS. Swiss exports were 172.6 metric tonnes last month, the most since February. Gold shipments to China jumped to 12 tonnes after averaging around three tonnes during the previous four months. Shipments to Hong Kong increased to 24.7 tonnes, the most since April. Switzerland exported 58.5 tonnes to India last month, the largest shipment year to date and nearly twice the average monthly volume, UBS says. Meanwhile, September gold imports into Switzerland were also high at 194.6 tonnes. Inflows from the U.K. jumped to 63.3 tonnes from 8.6 in August. “This suggests that a good portion of investor liquidations in September, that pushed the prices through the $1,200 psychological level, were absorbed by physical demand, with metal making its way from London vaults into Swiss refineries for refining/recasting and ultimately shipped to physical buyers in Asia,” UBS says. This short commentary appeared on the kitco.com Internet site yesterday at 9:38 a.m. EDT---and you may have to scroll down a bit to get to it, but you've read most of it already. It's another contribution from Manitoba reader U.M., for which I thank her. | ||
| Dhanteras Sales Jump 20% over Lower Gold, Silver Prices Posted: 22 Oct 2014 02:05 AM PDT  Dhanteras Sales Jump 20% over Lower Gold, Silver Prices This Dhanteras saw jump in sales of jewellery in various parts of the country by at least 20% over last year following lower gold and silver prices in the retail markets. People are preferring lightweight jewellery and gold coins over traditional jewellery. In Ahmedabad the local jewellers expected the business to cross Rs 250-300 crore till Diwali (October 23). Average gold prices that were around Rs 32,500 per 10 grams during last Diwali, were hovering around Rs 27,500 per 10 grams this year. Also, silver prices this year before Diwali were around Rs 39,000 per kg compared to around Rs 49,000 per kg last year during Diwali. In Ahmedabad, upbeat over the lower prices of the yellow metal, as many as 60 jewellers under the Ahmedabad Jewellers' Association had launched the grand shopping festival "Swarna Utsav" which concludes on Diwali, with primary objective to recover the losses incurred by them in the past six months due to lack of business. "During Dhanteras the sales of gold and silver has been significantly higher than last year. We expect sales to rise by 15-20% this year over last season," said Shantibhai Patel of the Ahmedabad Jewellers' Association. He said that this was due to lower price of the precious metals. This gold-related news item appeared on the bullionbulletin.in Internet site at yesterday IST sometime---and it's another story from reader U.M. | ||
| Chinese and Indian Gold Buyers Back in Market in a Big Way Posted: 22 Oct 2014 02:05 AM PDT  Chinese and Indian Gold Buyers Back in Market in a Big Way What has been particularly strange about the gold market over the past two years is that the stronger the physical demand appearing for gold, the weaker the gold price has tended to get. In the past few months, the gold price has fallen back from around $1,340 down at one time to $1,190 and now hovering back seemingly trying to breach $1,250 on the upside again, yet by all accounts demand in the two biggest consuming nations has been soaring and they are, between them, taking in virtually everything the world’s gold mines can produce. The two countries are India and China. A mild relaxation of some of the import controls put on gold in the former saw gold imports rise to around 95 tonnes in September, while the weekly withdrawal statistics from the Shanghai Gold Exchange show that gold demand has latterly also picked up extremely well in China after a good start to the year, but then a marked downturn from March to August. Indeed the latest weekly figures from the SGE could be seen as particularly strong given that the markets were closed for half the period due to China’s Golden Week holiday. While the total for the two weeks at around 68 tonnes may not seen spectacular, given that these purchases were actually made in only five days (September 29 and 30 and October 8, 9 and 10) due the long holiday market closure could suggest that Chinese demand is indeed soaring enormously. Supply and demand no longer matter in all key commodities as the banks have hijacked the price discovery mechanisms on the Globex/Comex---and Lawrie knows that. This commentary appeared on the mineweb.com Internet site yesterday---and it's worth skimming. | ||
| Top Bullion Consumer China Works on First Gold Forwards, Options Posted: 22 Oct 2014 02:05 AM PDT  Top Bullion Consumer China Works on First Gold Forwards, Options The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) is working on plans for China's first forwards and options in gold, sources say, potentially putting China ahead in the race to set an Asian pricing benchmark that might eventually rival the London gold fix. China, which overtook India last year to become the world's biggest consumer of gold, bans trading in commodity options and forwards at present to limit speculation. But Beijing is setting the stage for the launch of such derivatives as it opens up its markets, and gold could be among the first commodities on the list, although it remains unclear when trading might start. The state-run SGE, at the forefront of China's efforts to dominate bullion pricing, opened an international bourse last month and foreign banks have shown strong interest in trading its yuan-denominated contracts. The exchange now wants to expand its product line to boost liquidity. This longish Reuters article, co-filed from Singapore and Shanghai, appeared on their Web site at 2:50 a.m. IST on their Wednesday morning---and it's also courtesy of reader U.M. It's also her last contribution to today's column, for which I thank her on your behalf. | ||
| Chinese and Indian Gold Buyers Back in the Market in a Big Way Posted: 22 Oct 2014 02:05 AM PDT "JPMorgan et al. aren't going to let prices run too far to the upside" ¤ Yesterday In Gold & SilverThe gold price didn't do much in early Far East trading, but began to chop higher starting shortly after 11 a.m. Hong Kong time. It peaked out at the 10:30 a.m. BST London a.m. gold fix---and then got sold down to it's closing price on Monday. The short covering rally that began minutes after the Comex open ran into the usual not-for-profit sellers about 15 minutes later---and then gold chopped lower until shortly before 4 p.m. in electronic trading. From that point it rallied a few dollars into the close. The low and high ticks, such as they were, were reported by the CME Group as $1,245.70 and $1,255.60 in the December contract. Gold finished the Monday trading session in New York at $1,249.40 spot, up $2.50 on the day---and obviously well off its high, as is usually the case. Net volume was 128,000 contracts with about a third of that coming before 9 a.m. BST in London trading. The silver price action was almost a carbon copy of the gold chart, so I'll spare you the details; and as usual, silver got sold down the moment trading began in New York on Monday evening. The low and highs were reported as $17.355 and $17.655 in the December contract. Silver closed yesterday in New York at $17.515 spot, up 9 cents from Monday. Net volume was decent at 32,500 contracts. Both platinum and palladium also followed a very similar price path as gold and silver right up until the Comex open. Rallies in both began shortly after that---and both ran out of gas/got capped at the London p.m. gold fix. The platinum price drifted lower into the close---and the palladium price traded almost ruler flat from 10 a.m. EDT onwards. Platinum closed up $10---and palladium closed up $14. Here are the charts. The dollar index closed late on Monday afternoon at 85.02---and after dipping to its Tuesday low of 84.75 about 35 minutes before the London open, the index began to rally---and closed right on its 85.40 high, up 38 basis points on the day. The folks over at finance.yahoo.com decided to provide access to only their interactive HUI chart starting yesterday---and have blocked access to their basic chart, which is what I've always used. Unfortunately, you can't copy an interactive chart---and the new chart I was thinking of using doesn't have the line on it for the previous day's closing prices, so I'm stuck with this little one for now. If you have a favourite HUI chart that you like to use, please send me the link, as I need something other than the dinky chart below. Having got that out of the way, the gold stocks gapped up about 2% at the open---and then chopped sideways until shortly after 12:30 p.m. EDT. Then, mysteriously, the shares got sold down into negative territory once again, although they did rally a bit during the last 30 minutes of trading. The HUI closed down 0.28%. The silver equities started the day off well into the black, but they too ran into a seller at the same time as the gold shares, but managed to hang on to some of their gains, as Nick Laird's Intraday Silver Sentiment Index closed up 0.86%. The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 154 gold and 100 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday. Once again it was the "Barclays Show" in gold, as their proprietary trading account issued 154 contracts---and 152 of those contracts were stopped in its client account. In the last three business days, 604 gold contracts have been transferred from one Barclays pocket to another. In silver, the only short/issuer was ABN Amro with 100 contracts---and the three long/stoppers were Jefferies, Scotiabank and R.J. O'Brien. There have already been 754 silver contracts posted for delivery in October, which is quite a few considering that October is not a traditional delivery month. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. The CME Preliminary Report for the Tuesday trading session showed that gold open interest in October dropped by 219 contracts---and those were the Barclays deliveries scheduled for today. Open interest in the current month is now down to 388 contracts---minus the 154 Barclays contracts mentioned in the previous paragraph. Silver open interest in October now stands at 102 contracts, down 3 contracts from Monday's report. There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday---and as of 9:42 p.m. EDT yesterday evening, there were no reported changes in SLV. The good folks over at Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank updated their website with the changes in their gold and silver ETFs for the week ending, Friday, October 17---and this is what they had to report: Their gold ETF declined by another 12,660 troy ounces, but their silver ETF went in the other direction for the second week in a row, adding 71,103 troy ounces. It was a big sales day over at the U.S. Mint. They sold 8,000 troy ounces of gold eagles---2,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes---and 715,000 silver eagles. Knowing what's going on in the physical retail market in real time, I can tell you without a word of lie that a huge chunk of these sales are not to the average retail investor. This is most likely Ted Butler's 'Mr. Big' in action. Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday, they didn't receive any gold, but 24,278 troy ounces were shipped out, with virtually every bar coming out of Scotiabank's warehouse. The link to that activity is here. In silver, there were 607,638 troy ounces received---and 425,900 troy ounces shipped out the door. The link to that action is here. I have a more reasonable number of stories for you in today's Critical Reads section---and I hope you'll find the odd one that interests you. ¤ Critical Reads "Plunge Protection" Behind Market's Sudden RecoveryMysterious forces were trying their best, but they couldn’t keep the stock market from swooning [last] Wednesday. They failed in the morning, despite massive purchases of stock index futures contracts. Within minutes of the market’s opening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 350 points. Later in the day — after a lot of shocking ebb and flow — the Dow bottomed out with a decline of 460 points. It was only in the last hour of trading that the market saviors managed to trim the Dow loss to just 173 points. And they succeeded only after Janet Yellen’s private, upbeat remarks about the economy were leaked. Welcome to a new kind of stock market — one that the average investor should refuse to be invested in. No surprises here, dear reader. New York Post columnist John Crudele calls it the way it was. This article appeared on their Internet site at 11:08 p.m. EDT on Monday evening---and I thank Howard Wiener for today's first story. It's worth reading.  Top Mortgage Firm Accused of AbusesOne of the nation's largest servicers of home loans may have denied struggling borrowers the chance to fix loan problems and avoid foreclosures, New York's financial regulator has alleged. An investigation by the state's Department of Financial Services found that Ocwen Financial Corp. inappropriately backdated foreclosure warnings and letters that rejected mortgage loan modifications, making it nearly impossible for borrowers to appeal the company's decision. Many borrowers who had fallen behind on loan payments also received warning letters months after the deadline for avoiding foreclosure had passed, department investigators found. Potentially hundreds of thousands of backdated letters may have been sent to borrowers, likely causing them "significant harm," Benjamin Lawsky, New York's Superintendent of Financial Services, wrote in a letter to Ocwen released Tuesday. This AP story showed up on their Web site at 5:11 p.m. EDT on Tuesday afternoon---and I thank Manitoba reader U.M. for her first offering of many in today's column.  New Rules Adopted in Hopes of Spurring Home LoansWith the financial crisis and subprime mortgage bust receding further into history, the government is loosening some financial rules, hoping to inject more life into the country's still-recovering housing market. Both banks and borrowers stand to benefit from the new rules unveiled Tuesday by six federal agencies. While banks will see relaxed guidelines for packaging and selling mortgage securities, fewer borrowers likely will need to make hefty down payments. The board of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. voted 4-1 Tuesday to adopt the new rules, and two other agencies approved them as well. The Federal Reserve has scheduled a vote for Wednesday, and two other agencies are expected to adopt the rules soon. The regulators have dropped a key requirement: a 20% down payment from the borrower if a bank didn't hold at least 5% of the mortgage securities tied to those loans on its books. The long-delayed final rules include the less stringent condition that borrowers not carry excessive debt relative to their income. Borrow and spend till you puke, but these changes are still a year away at least. This AP story was picked up by the news.yahoo.com Internet site mid afternoon EDT---and it's courtesy of West Virgina reader Elliot Simon. Fed Emergency Update - Mike Maloney"Ever since the 2008 crisis, I've been telling audiences that that crisis never ended, that the Federal Reserve is doing extreme emergency manoeuvres that show that there's still something very wrong with the world economy. Right now the entire economy really is on artificial life support." - Mike Maloney - October 20, 2014. This 10:40-minute video commentary, complete with attached charts, was posted on the hiddensecretsofmoney.com Internet site on Tuesday sometime---and from what I've seen so far, it's worth watching.  Dr. Dave Janda Interviews Your Humble ScribeI spent about 25 minutes talking to the good doctor on a variety of issues on Sunday---and it was posted on the davejanda.com Internet site on the same day.  Forex-Rigging Fines Against Banks Could Reach $41 Billion Worldwide, Citi Report SaysProbes into allegations that traders rigged foreign-exchange benchmarks could cost banks as much as $41 billion to settle, Citigroup Inc. analysts said. Deutsche Bank is seen as probably the "most impacted" with a fine of as much as 5.1 billion euros ($6.5 billion), Citigroup analysts led by Kinner Lakhani said yesterday, estimating that the Frankfurt-based bank's settlements could reach 10% of its tangible book value, or its assets' worth. Using similar calculations, Barclays could face as much as 3 billion pounds ($4.8 billion) in fines and UBS penalties of 4.3 billion Swiss francs ($4.6 billion), they wrote in a note first sent to clients on Oct. 3. But nobody will go to jail, so the ethics don't change. This Bloomberg article, filed from London, showed up on their Web site at 9:37 a.m. Denver time yesterday morning---and I found it in a GATA release. EU Fines JPMorgan, UBS, Credit Suisse for Taking Part in CartelsJPMorgan, UBS and Credit Suisse were fined a total of 94 million euros ($120 million) by the European Commission for taking part in cartels in the financial sector. The Commission handed JPMorgan a 61.7-million-euro fine for rigging the Swiss franc Libor benchmark interest rate between March 2008 and July 2009. It was also fined 10.5 million euros for participating in a cartel on Swiss franc interest rate derivatives. UBS' penalty in the derivatives cartel came to 12.7 million euros and that of Credit Suisse was 9.2 million euros. Royal Bank of Scotland alerted the Commission about both cartels and escaped total fines of 115 million euros. The penalties are the latest by the European Commission, which along with authorities around the world, has handed down billions of euros in fines against top banks for rate-rigging, breaking trade sanctions and other misbehavior. But nobody is going to jail, so what's the point? This Reuters story, filed from Brussels, was updated at 11:31 a.m. EDT yesterday, as reader Harry Grant sent it to me at 8:01 a.m. EDT yesterday. Reader U.M. sent the Zero Hedge take on this headlined "Europe Demands Banks Hand Over Their Lunch Money Following Swiss Franc Libor Rigging". The ZH folks are certainly less charitable than those over at Reuters.  ECB to Spend €1 Trillion on Covered Bonds to Kick-Start Euro EconomyThe European Central Bank (ECB) has embarked on a spending spree that could see it pump €1tn (£790bn) into the eurozone’s financial system. After months of debate, on Monday the Frankfurt-based central bank began buying covered bonds in the next stage in its battle to revive the eurozone economy and keep deflation at bay. ECB president Mario Draghi has made it clear the programme should return the ECB’s accumulated assets to 2012 levels, which means that by the time officials in Frankfurt have finished, its balance sheet could have risen from €2tn to €3tn. The aim of the move is to ease bank credit in the 18-member currency union after a difficult year that has seen a decline in business lending hamper recovery. Covered bonds have an income stream of debt repayments backed by pools of home or commercial property loans; 90% of the global market is based in Europe, especially in Denmark, Germany, Spain, France and Sweden. Mortgage-backed securities [MBS] Europe style. I posted a story about this in Tuesday's column, but this offering from theguardian.com Web site at 5:17 p.m. BST on Monday is more comprehensive---and is something I borrowed from yesterday's edition of the King Report. No Russia-Ukraine Gas Deal at EU Talks; Moscow Queries FinancesRussia and Ukraine failed to reach an accord on gas supplies for the coming winter in EU-brokered talks on Tuesday but agreed to meet again in Brussels in a week in the hope of ironing out problems over Kiev's ability to pay. After a day of talks widely expected to be the final word, European Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger told a news conference the three parties agreed the price Ukraine would pay Russia's Gazprom - $385 per thousand cubic meters - as long as it paid in advance for the deliveries. But Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow was still seeking assurances on how Kiev, which earlier in the day asked the EU for a further 2 billion euros ($2.55 billion) in credit, would find the money to pay Moscow for its energy. Dependent on Western aid, Ukraine is in a weak position in relation to its former Soviet master in Moscow, though Russia's reasons were unclear for wanting further assurances on finances, beyond an agreement to supply gas only for cash up front. This Reuters news item, filed from Brussels, appeared on their Web site at 5:29 p.m. EDT on Tuesday afternoon---and I thank Jim Skinner for digging it up for us. It's worth reading.  Ukraine Used Cluster Bombs, Evidence IndicatesThe Ukrainian Army appears to have fired cluster munitions on several occasions into the heart of Donetsk, unleashing a weapon banned in much of the world into a rebel-held city with a peacetime population of more than one million, according to physical evidence and interviews with witnesses and victims. Sites where rockets fell in the city on Oct. 2 and Oct. 5 showed clear signs that cluster munitions had been fired from the direction of army-held territory, where misfired artillery rockets still containing cluster bomblets were found by villagers in farm fields. The two attacks wounded at least six people and killed a Swiss employee of the International Red Cross based in Donetsk. If confirmed, the use of cluster | ||
| Gold & Silver Trading Alert: How Will We Know That the Bottom Is In? Posted: 21 Oct 2014 10:18 PM PDT SunshineProfits | ||
| PM Fund Manager: The GLD Gold Vault is Being Drained Posted: 21 Oct 2014 09:00 PM PDT Another 9 tonnes of gold was removed from the GLD trust yesterday. This takes the "reported" amount down to 751 tonnes. The last time the reported amount of gold in the trust was at this level was November 18, 2008. The price of gold was $738. Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics: It's […] The post PM Fund Manager: The GLD Gold Vault is Being Drained appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| Gold reaches 1st weekly target resistance but CPI report will be Wednesday key event Posted: 21 Oct 2014 07:18 PM PDT Commodity Trader | ||
| Harvey Organ’s Gold & Silver Update: China is Ready to Pounce! Posted: 21 Oct 2014 03:41 PM PDT China is still in a holding pattern ready to pounce when needed. The open interest on silver is still highly elevated. Gold has a low OI with a low gold price. Silver has a high OI with a low silver price. Something has got to give!! Let’s head immediately to see the major data points […] The post Harvey Organ’s Gold & Silver Update: China is Ready to Pounce! appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| Comfort, Karma, and Money Velocity Posted: 21 Oct 2014 02:15 PM PDT “You don’t want a world where silver is $350 or gold is $10000″. Submitted by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, Silver Coin Investor: Maybe not. But the probability of that happening, with all the “known, knowns” of risk – make it crucial to own some amount just in case. Obviously, you know this as well as anyone. […] The post Comfort, Karma, and Money Velocity appeared first on Silver Doctors. | ||
| Posted: 21 Oct 2014 01:53 PM PDT What I see as extremes that must necessarily end badly, others see as mere extensions of recently successful policies and trends. A long-time reader recently chastised me for using too many maybe’s in my forecasts. The criticism is valid, as “on the other hand” slips all too easily from qualifying a position to rinsing it of meaning. That said, given that we’re in uncharted waters, maybe’s become prudent and certainty becomes extremely dangerous.
I have long held that the financial policy extremes that are now considered normal are unprecedented in the modern era: extremes in debt, leverage, risk, complexity and willful obfuscation of these extremes. Consider the extent to which sky-high asset valuations and present-day “prosperity” depend on extremes of leverage: autos purchased with no money down, homes purchased with 3.5% down payments and FHA loans, stocks bought on margin, stock buybacks funded by loans, student loans issued with zero collateral, and so on–an inverted pyramid of “prosperity” resting precariously on a tiny base of actual collateral. Since we have no guide to the future other than the past, we extrapolate past trends. Human nature hasn’t changed over the short time-frames of civilizations (i.e. the past few thousand years), so in terms of human drives, emotions and responses, the past is an excellent guide to the range of human responses to crisis, euphoria, greed, fear, etc. But extending trends is a shifting foundation for forecasts, as trends end and reverse, generally without telegraphing the end of an era. Few in 1639 China foresaw the collapse of the status quo Ming Dynasty a mere five years hence. With the hindsight of history, we can discern the cracks in the Ming Dynasty before its collapse, but once we shift to our own era, things become less certain. In my view, we’re drifting in uncharted seas. I have covered the dangers of certainty before: Certainty, Complex Systems, and Unintended Consequences (February 14, 2014) What I see as extremes that must necessarily end badly, others see as mere extensions of recently successful policies and trends. Let’s review a few of the many extremes that we now accept as ordinary and harmless. Consider how much new debt is now required to lift GDP (“growth”) off the flat line:
The slightest pause in the expansion of credit nearly collapsed the entire global economy:
Extraordinary central state and bank policies have boosted the wealth of those closest to the Federal Reserve’s money spigot and left everyone else poorer:
It’s not just real income that’s declined–so has household wealth.
Incentives to borrow money to obtain a college degree are declining while student loan debt hits astounding extremes:
Feel free to extend this line of Federally funded student debt: where does it end?
The Federal Reserve has pushed astonishingly extreme policies for six years. Now that the Fed owns significant chunks of the Treasury bond and mortgage bond markets, it’s being forced to limit these easing programs:
All the Fed money-printing and bond buying has sent money velocity in the real economy into a tailspin: this is good, right? No, actually it’s a calamity. Money has slipped into a coma.
Extend the trendlines in these charts, and then ask yourself: where do they end? What will they trigger as they push ever deeper into uncharted waters? Understand what’s really go on in the job market: | ||
| Posted: 21 Oct 2014 01:43 PM PDT Gold has had a nice rally off what is now a TRIPLE BOTTOM ( which amazingly held) near $1180. In the process it has managed to clear two resistance zones; the first near $1220 and the second near $1240. It has subsequently been unable to best the 50 Day Moving Average however and has set back after some early session buying popped it above that key technical level.  The HUI, in spite of an extremely powerful rally in the broader equity markets ( the S&P 500 is up over 2% today) has been comatose which is worrisome if one is a bull. I mentioned in yesterday's post that if the equity markets rally and especially if the VIX moves lower, gold was going to encounter some selling pressure. That it is doing at the moment. It does however remain higher on the day although well off the best levels reached earlier in the session. Tomorrow will therefore be important for the short term future of the yellow metal. If it does indeed set back from here, how it handles itself if price does fall towards $1240 will be key in deciphering its next move. Failure there and it will drop back to $1220 as discouraged bulls and emboldened bears will assert themselves. If the metal manages to attract enough dip buyers to keep it afloat above $1240, the action will be more indicative of a pause or rest in a market that wants to make a run towards $1280. Thus the jury is out at this point. Buying has been good out of Asia ( what else is new ) but Western-based investment demand is miserable as witnessed by the plunging reported holdings in GLD. Some want to make some sort of big deal out of this claiming that the "GLD is being "drained" or "raided" to meet demand from the East" but that is an explanation looking for an argument. Who cares who is buying it? No one in the perma gold bull camp seemed to care when the reported holdings were soaring several years back now were they? We could turn the latest theory on its head and say the following: "Western-based investment demand is pulling gold from all corners of the world to meet it". The simple truth is that for every buyer there is a seller. Some act as if once this gold is bought by some nebulous "East" that it will never be sold again. That is pure rubbish! Gold is bought and sold every day in China as well as in India or Vietnam or anywhere else in the nations that comprise the "East". Western-based money managers chase yield. If they feel that gold is going to put in a good performance or if they require a safe haven asset in which to park some excess funds, they will buy the metal. If they do not, they will not buy it. I am on record here as stating that I believe falling reported holdings in GLD is not bullish. If was bullish on the way up for gold way back when, then it is bearish on the way down. One cannot have it both ways. That is why I am watching this rally with some skepticism. For now, the bulls are in technical control of the market with the chart in their favor. Let's see what we get tomorrow. By the way, the Euro plunged on the ECB potential corporate bond buying news.  It stalled out exactly at the former support zone near 1.2800 which is now serving as overhead resistance. The recent bump higher has relieved the oversold reading on the weekly chart so perhaps the currency is reading to resume its move lower. We shall see on that as well. Lastly for now, the soybean meal market which I noted earlier today, posted a very strong close above the $340 level. It continues to pull the soybeans, AND THE CORN higher. Wheat was pulled higher by talk of planting delays for the soft winter wheat crop in the Eastern portion of the Corn Belt. It popped above $5.20 which is a big level but failed to CLOSE above that line. Wheat bulls can expect to see $5.40 if they can dislodge the bears near this level. There has been a rather significant amount of short covering by the funds in this market but that is the reason why one has to closely watch these resistance levels. The stronger hands, who have not been squeezed out, are still looking for a level against which to sell. For now they seem to have found it near $5.20. This is shaping up to be an interesting battle.  | ||
| Copper, nickel, and zinc won't be cheap for long Posted: 21 Oct 2014 01:06 PM PDT The all-powerful U.S. dollar is currently hammering base metals and base metal equities. | ||
| Russia Adds A Record 1.2 Mio Ounces Gold To Its Reserves Posted: 21 Oct 2014 12:57 PM PDT As evidenced by the Russian central bank, it appears that Russia has added another 1,200,000 ounces of physical gold to their reserves. Total Russian gold reserves now stand at 37,000,000 ounces, or 1049 tonnes. The following chart, courtesy Sharelynx, shows the increase of Russian gold reserves over the last 8 years. The latter part of the chart shows the monthly change. It is very interesting to note how September 2014 attributed to the biggest month-on-month increase ever. Only in May 2010 was there an increase which came close to the one of last month with an addition of 1.1 million ounces. As we said in March of this year in our article Russia Touches U.S. Achilles Heel: Petrogold instead of Petrodollar, we believe gold equals strength. It is no coincidence that the petrodollar system is losing ground and that countries like Russia and China keep on hoarding large amounts of gold. This trend could end up in a lost of trust in the US dollar leading the world reserve to collapse. That is the also unspoken Achilles heel of the US.
Ed Steer notes in his daily newsletter that the 1.2 million troy ounces is considerably more gold than Russia digs out of the ground in one month. “I get the impression from this big deposit in September that they have gold stashed away somewhere that doesn’t show up in the books of the central bank, as a deposit that size can’t be explained any other way.” | ||
| Ukraine crisis update: A “brutal winter” is coming Posted: 21 Oct 2014 12:44 PM PDT From Kim Iskyan, editor, S&A Global Contrarian: … A brutal winter is coming to Ukraine. As regular readers know, Russia has been destabilizing Ukraine since March. Close to 4,000 people have died in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. The conflict has also marked a low point in post-Cold War relations between Russia and the West. The U.S. and Europe have imposed economic sanctions on Russia in an effort to force it to back off, and Russia has retaliated with sanctions of its own. Not surprisingly, Ukraine has been the biggest loser in the conflict. More than a million Ukrainians have been displaced. The Ukrainian economy, which has struggled ever since the country became independent in 1991, will shrink 9.5% in 2014, according to local investment advisory SP Advisors. The country’s per capita gross domestic product in dollar terms will fall 25% this year. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian hryvnia (local currency) is down 57% this year against the U.S. dollar. And as I said last month, it’s likely things are going to get worse before they get better… The coming winter is about to hit parts of Ukraine that haven’t been that affected yet. Around 40% of Ukraine’s energy comes from natural gas, much of which is imported from Russia. But Russia turned off the gas taps to Ukraine in June because the country owes Russian state gas company Gazprom $4.5 billion in back payments. During the coming winter, Ukraine will need around 32 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas. It will be able to cover around half of that from its own production and from gas it’s holding in storage. But that leaves the other 16 bcm in demand unaccounted for. That’s a lot of people in Ukraine who will be shivering in the dark. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s coal – which accounts for around 31% of the country’s energy consumption – is produced in the eastern part of the country, which is in the center of the conflict with separatist rebels. Coal production has fallen sharply, and reserves are likely to run out soon. Talks late last week between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and European leaders didn’t result in any progress in resolving the conflict. And on Thursday, Putin warned that Russia would also reduce gas supplies to Europe if the Ukrainian government siphons away any gas shipments destined for Europe. You see, Russia must run its gas through pipelines located in Ukraine to get it to Europe. Europe gets around one-third of its natural gas from Russia. So even though Russia has turned off the gas to Ukraine, gas is still flowing through Ukraine’s pipelines. When Russia has cut gas supplies to Ukraine in the past (in 2006 and again in 2009), Ukraine has taken some of the gas that passed through the country en route to Europe. If Ukraine does this again, Russia will likely cut off gas to Europe altogether… and already-poor relations between Russia and the West will deteriorate further. The European Union won’t look kindly on its citizens shivering in the middle of winter. In short, the conflict is far from over. And it’s likely we’re going to see more volatility in Ukraine in the months ahead. I’ll continue to keep an eye on Ukrainian stocks… But we still have a ways to go before we hit the bottom in Ukraine. Recommended Links
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| Real interest rates have a real influence on gold Posted: 21 Oct 2014 12:39 PM PDT Does gold respond to the inflation or rather to the real interest rate? |
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