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Thursday, October 2, 2014

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Europe Is Crumbling Into Economic Collapse

Posted: 02 Oct 2014 12:27 AM PDT

For me, the quote of the day is this one: “If there’s a periphery of the eurozone’s periphery, that’s Naples.”. The city of Napoli hosts ECB boss Mario Draghi and the heads of Europe’s central banks this week in some very posh former Bourbon family royal palace, and the contradictions involved couldn’t be more striking. Napoli is home to an immense amount of poverty and misery, and the advent of the EU and the euro has done absolutely nothing to make life in the city any better. Quite the contrary. And there’s not a single thing in sight that holds any promise of alleviating the deepening Italian downfall. Therefore things can, and will, only get worse from here.

Gold Stocks Stealth Rally

Posted: 02 Oct 2014 12:18 AM PDT

Well, the headlines are rightfully bearish for gold, silver and the major precious metals stock indexes, ETFs and senior gold miners. The technical damage is real. Today's burst could be and probably is just short covering. [edit; post was mostly written before the end of day flop] But improbably enough, there is a stealth uptrend going on in certain royalties, miners, developers and explorers. Believe me, if you could hear me talk instead of write you would not hear anything resembling desperation in my tone. That is because I have worked hard during this bear market to manage risk, stay strong and out of the bear's way. So I am not talking any sort of a book here other than my biggest picture view (an economic contraction environment that ultimately benefits the counter cyclical gold sector), which could still be out on the horizon.

SILVER CRASHES Below $17, What’s Next? | David Morgan

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 11:30 PM PDT

Gold Will Surprise In More Ways Than One

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 11:25 PM PDT

Bob Loukas writes: Everywhere you turn today, gold is again being dismissed as a relic of the past, totally worthless, non-producing, with no place in any modern day portfolio. During the past 3 years, the gold complex has experienced the progressive stages of fear, capitulation, and despair, all classic bottoming phases of a long term Cycle. The question now is whether this high level of apathy is a symptom of a new secular bear market or a period of “stealth smart money” accumulation.

Greenspan’s ‘Golden Rule: Why China is buying’

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 10:00 PM PDT

by Kip Keen, MineWeb.com

His current views on gold are fairly well known by now. Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the U.S. Fed, doesn’t really mind the stuff. So in a recent essay he wrote on gold reserves in Foreign Affairs (“Golden Rule: Why Beijing Is Buying” pointed out to us by Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver) Greenspan does cover some familiar ground: That gold, as a form of money, is unique as no one else’s liability, or in his words, that “It has never required the credit guarantee of a third party.”

This, he notes, is why central banks hold it – despite the cost of doing so – as a form of crisis insurance and bling to impress peers. Gold represents some 10% of the value of reserves and Greenspand notes: “If, in the words of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, gold were a ‘barbarous relic,’ central banks around the world would not have so much of an asset whose rate of return, including storage costs, is negative.” In this respect the short essay is a defense of gold that will not – at least not entirely – come as a surprise to many goldophiles for its talking points.

But Greenspan leads with China reserve talk that is especially well timed in the context of the gold market in Asia today – growing and becoming the locus of price setting. Greenspan opens thus: “If China were to convert a relatively modest part of its $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves into gold, the country's currency could take on unexpected strength in today's international financial system.” It’s a comment that is sure to catch a lot of attention.

Read More @ MineWeb.com

Silver & Gold Demand Explodes: Western Demand is Back With a Vengeance!

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 09:05 PM PDT

The U.S. Mint alone sold another 765,000 silver eagles in one business day! Wrap your minds around this: in one day, that mint sold as many eagles as it used to sell in an entire month! That's nearly 9 times as much silver as the U.S. even mined yesterday!

from The Wealth Watchman:

Surprise, surprise!  After hearing the bobbing heads on MSNBC for the last several years, all denounce gold and silver as a giant tombstone for your cash, we see that people are still flocking there now in droves.  More precisely, for the first time in months, Western investment demand is raging like a lion that's just escaped captivity!

Take a look for yourself:

These are the sales numbers for 2014, in silver eagles from the U.S. Mint's website.

Silver

Month (One oz.  coins )
January 4,775,000
February 3,750,000
March 5,354,000
April 3,569,000
May 3,988,500
June 2,692,000
July 1,975,000
August 2,007,500
September 3,375,000

"Pay careful attention to September's sales month above: 3.375 million oz of silver(or over 100 tons) in a month.  That's the largest monthly sales figure of silver eagles since late Spring of this year. The pattern though, which isn't apparent in this chart, is that most of this month's demand has come in only the past two weeks!"  

See that ^ above paragraph, and that scratched out number, shield brother?  I wrote that yesterday, on the last sales day of the month, thinking that there was likely no way that they'd sell(or report) any more silver eagles in September.

Now, take a gander at the new number before you, which was updated just last night! LOL

 

September 4,140,000

 

Holy Silver Default, Batman!

That's just amazing news, folks.  Yesterday, while many were wringing their hands, and beside themselves about the massacre in the paper silver market, the big players, the smartest guys in the room were busy buying nearly 24 tonnes of silver from the U.S. Mint! 

Let me repeat that: the U.S. Mint alone sold another 765,000 silver eagles in one business day!

Wrap your minds around this: in one day, that mint sold as many eagles as it used to sell in an entire month!  That's nearly 9 times as much silver as the U.S. even mined yesterday!

This is a prime example of why I actually embrace the downside moves now: it's not so much that I can buy more silver(I'm nearly maxed out), it's that the sooner the banks take paper silver to price levels that cannot possibly be delivered upon, the sooner the crime ends, and our day can come.  The longer they allow silver's price to rise, the longer they can actually keep their price control over the silver we love.

Briar patch

$16, $15, $14 silver per ounce? *Laughs*  

Please, Mistah Fox, please don't throw me in that briar patch! 

Halfway through September, it looked as if silver eagles were going to put in another dismal sales month, as barely 1 million oz in sales had occurred by mid-month.

What a difference two weeks makes!

In just the last two weeks, the U.S. Mint has produced roughly 3 million ounces of silver eagles, matching the demand of the previous first 5 months of the year.  To put that number into perspective, if that level of demand could hold, the U.S. Mint would produce nearly 75 million oz. of silver eagles in a calendar year!

It's not hard to see why this demand has cranked into 5th gear, either.  Just look at this chart for silver: feast your eyes on this vintage, bullion bank, price-rigging masterpiece!

6 month silver chart

Wow.  What a beautiful corridor of endless red candles, with nary a single relief rally in over 2 months! That's exactly how you'd expect a raw material with a 100 million ounce supply deficit to trade in a free and fair market, wouldn't you?

Yup.  Exactly like it.  Mmm hmmm.

It's self-evident why the buyers have come out in force, too.  They know a ridiculous bargain when they see one.  The figures from the U.S. Mint prove that Western silver and gold buying is still there, it just needed the proper price stimulant to exert itself.

Read More @ TheWealthWatchman.com

Stunning Physical Demand As War In Gold Continues To Rage

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 09:02 PM PDT

Today an outspoken hedge fund manager out of Hong Kong told King World News that we are now seeing massive physical demand as the war in the gold market continues to rage. William Kaye, who 25 years ago worked for Goldman Sachs in mergers and acquisitions, also spoke about the physical markets for both gold and silver, and discussed what is going to put an end to this bearish phase in gold.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

American Eagle Gold Bullion Coin Sales Soar 132% In September

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 08:47 PM PDT

Despite the ongoing slump in the price of gold, buyers of physical gold seem to sense that gold has reached bargain levels.  The September sales report from the US Mint shows that sales of the American Eagle gold bullion coins soared by 132% over the previous month. September sales of gold bullion coins totaled 58,000 [...]

US Dollar Long Term Chart

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 08:44 PM PDT

Gold, Global Growth, & The Schism In The High Church Of Bernanke

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 07:54 PM PDT

from ZeroHedge:

The meaning of events and market signals differ hugely from country to country, tribe to tribe, generation to generation. Ferguson does not mean the same thing as Hong Kong. Hong Kong does not mean the same thing as Tahrir Square or even Tiananmen Square. Monetary policy does not mean the same thing in Beijing as monetary policy means in Washington, which in turn does not mean the same thing as monetary policy in Paris or Rome. But we have an innate tendency to act as if these signals DO mean the same thing, and we can totally wrong-foot our investments as a result. The biggest thing happening in the world today is the growing divergence between US monetary policy and everyone else's monetary policy with three HUGE implications: one for investment strategy selection, one for global growth, and one for … (gulp!) gold.

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Sales Soar 100%

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 07:48 PM PDT

Sales of the US Mint American Eagle silver bullion coins has been extremely robust ever since the financial system can close to collapse in 2008.  Prior to the financial crisis sales of the silver bullion coins averaged about 9 million coins per year. Over the past five years, despite the large correction in the price [...]

Ebola In America: The Confirmed Case In Dallas, Texas Could Change Everything

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 06:25 PM PDT

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

The day that many of us hoped would never arrive is here.  Ebola has come to America.  Air travel between the United States and the countries of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone should have been totally shut down except for absolutely essential personnel but it wasn't.  And now our nation may end up paying a great price as a result.  On Tuesday, the CDC announced that there is a confirmed case of Ebola in Dallas, Texas.  We know that this individual is a male and that he traveled by air from Liberia to Texas on September 19th.  At that time, he was not exhibiting any symptoms.  It is being reported that he started developing symptoms on September 24th and that he sought out treatment two days later.  Incredibly, he was turned away and sent home.  Then on September 28th he went to a hospital again and this time he was admitted for treatment.  That means that he could have potentially been spreading Ebola to others for at least four full days before finally getting treated at a hospital.  Now he is in intensive care at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas.  The CDC says that "there is no doubt that we will stop it here" and is promising that "it will not spread widely in this country".  The CDC better be right on both counts.

At this point, the CDC is admitting that it is not known if others have been infected by this individual.  The CDC also says that it is tracking down everyone that he has been in contact with.  But over four days in a major U.S. city, you can be "in contact" with a whole lot of people.  And what about all of the people that those people were in contact with?

If I was in charge of this crisis, I would admit that we don't know the full scope of the problem yet but that we are dealing with it the best that we can.

Instead, the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is taking an entirely different approach.  Dr. Thomas Frieden insists that we have absolutely nothing to worry about...

"I have no doubt that we will control this case of Ebola, so that it does not spread widely in this country. It is certainly possible that someone who has had contact with this patient could develop Ebola. But there is no doubt in my mind that we will stop it here."

Frieden better be right about that.

Other "experts" are being even more dogmatic...

"There is no cause for concern," says Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine and professor at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. "The Ebola virus is not easily transmitted from person to person, and we have an outstanding infrastructure in place both to contain the virus and trace contacts. There will not be an Ebola epidemic in the United States."

I have no idea how they can say these things when the outbreak over in Africa is completely and totally out of control.  Despite extreme precautions, hundreds of health workers have gotten the virus, and so far global health officials have not even been able to slow down the exponential growth of the Ebola pandemic in West Africa.

And our health officials should not be so dogmatic about how this virus spreads either.

In a previous article, I discussed a study that was conducted back in 2012 that demonstrated that Ebola could be transmitted through the air between pigs and monkeys that did not have physical contact with one another...

When news broke that the Ebola virus had resurfaced in Uganda, investigators in Canada were making headlines of their own with research indicating the deadly virus may spread between species, through the air.

 

The team, comprised of researchers from the National Centre for Foreign Animal Disease, the University of Manitoba, and the Public Health Agency of Canada, observed transmission of Ebola from pigs to monkeys. They first inoculated a number of piglets with the Zaire strain of the Ebola virus. Ebola-Zaire is the deadliest strain, with mortality rates up to 90 percent. The piglets were then placed in a room with four cynomolgus macaques, a species of monkey commonly used in laboratories. The animals were separated by wire cages to prevent direct contact between the species.

 

Within a few days, the inoculated piglets showed clinical signs of infection indicative of Ebola infection. In pigs, Ebola generally causes respiratory illness and increased temperature. Nine days after infection, all piglets appeared to have recovered from the disease.

 

Within eight days of exposure, two of the four monkeys showed signs of Ebola infection. Four days later, the remaining two monkeys were sick too. It is possible that the first two monkeys infected the other two, but transmission between non-human primates has never before been observed in a lab setting.

There is much that we don't understand about this disease.

I can understand the need to keep the public calm, but why don't these officials just tell us the truth?

At the same time that they are telling us that there is no chance that there will be an Ebola epidemic in the United States, they are also sending out guidelines to funeral homes on how to deal with dead Ebola victims...

CBS46 News has confirmed the Centers for Disease Control has issued guidelines to U.S. funeral homes on how to handle the remains of Ebola patients. If the outbreak of the potentially deadly virus is in West Africa, why are funeral homes in America being given guidelines?

 

The three-page list of recommendations include instructing funeral workers to wear protective equipment when dealing with the remains since Ebola can be transmitted in postmortem care. It also instructs to avoid autopsies and embalming.

Why are they doing this if there is "no chance" that the disease will spread widely?

Hopefully they isolated this Ebola patient in Dallas in time.

Hopefully he did not infect anyone else.

But we need to be honest about the situation that we are potentially facing.  So far, there have been more than 6,000 cases of Ebola in Africa and more than 3,000 of those have died.  Unfortunately, even WHO officials admit that those official numbers "great underestimate" the scope of this outbreak.  The number of official cases has been doubling approximately every three weeks, and the CDC says that under a "worst case scenario" we could be looking at 1.4 million cases by the end of January 2015.

Right now all of the treatment facilities in Liberia and Sierra Leone are completely full and more than 80 percent of Ebola patients have been turned away and sent home without being treated.  It is an absolute nightmare, and now it has come to America.

And as the virus continues to spread, it is inevitable that more carriers of the disease will get on airplanes headed for America.

Unfortunately for us, according to a recent Defense One article the screening done at airports actually does very little to stop the spread of Ebola...

The bad news is that thermal screenings of the international flying population at airports are not likely to yield much by way of improved safety.

 

Here’s why: fever can be a sign of a lot of different illnesses, not just Ebola. And thermal scanning proved to be a poor method of catching bird flu carriers in 2009 as well. So presenting with an elevated temperature at an airport checkpoint does not indicate clearly enough that the fevered person is carrying the deadly virus. More importantly, the incubation period for Ebola is two days. As many as 20 days can pass before symptoms show up. That means that an individual could be carrying the virus for two weeks or longer and not even know it, much less have it show up via thermal scan. So what good are these scanners?

When I first started writing about Ebola, a few people accused me of "spreading fear".

Well, now that Ebola has arrived in the United States, perhaps they will take a second look at some of my recent articles...

-"The Pure Hell At The Heart Of The Ebola Pandemic In Africa Could Soon Be Coming To America"

-"Computer Models Tell Us That This Ebola Pandemic Could Soon Kill Millions"

-"16 Apocalyptic Quotes From Global Health Officials About This Horrific Ebola Epidemic"

-"Ebola Among Health Workers: More Than 240 Sick, More Than 120 Dead"

-"It Is Becoming Clear – We Are NOT Prepared For An Ebola Pandemic"

Let us pray that this is just one isolated case and that there will not be a major outbreak in this nation.

Because if cases do start popping up around the country, fear will spread like wildfire and we could potentially be facing the greatest health crisis that any of us have ever seen.

One of the individuals that successfully survived this disease was Dr. Kent Brantly.  I think that the following quote from him really does a great job of summarizing what we are potentially facing...

"Many have used the analogy of a fire burning out of control to describe this unprecedented Ebola outbreak," Brantly said. "Indeed it is a fire—it is a fire straight from the pit of hell. We cannot fool ourselves into thinking that the vast moat of the Atlantic Ocean will protect us from the flames of this fire. Instead, we must mobilize the resources ... to keep entire nations from being reduced to ashes."

A virus like this could change everything if it starts circulating widely.

Like I have said so many times before, let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for the worst.

Gold, Global Growth, & The Schism In The High Church Of Bernanke

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 04:42 PM PDT

Submitted by Ben Hunt via Salient Partners' Epsilon Theory blog,

 

Everything under the sun is in chaos. The situation is excellent.
– Mao Zedong (1893 – 1976)

Forget it, Jake. It’s Chinatown.
– Chinatown (1974)

Language is conceived in sin and science is its redemption.
– W.V.O. Quine (1908 – 2000)

I am, as I am; whether hideous, or handsome, depends upon who is made judge.
– Herman Melville (1819 – 1891)

All -ism’s end up in schisms.
– Huston Smith (b. 1919)

What Asians value may not necessarily be what Americans or Europeans value. Westerners value the freedoms and liberties of the individual. As an Asian of Chinese cultural background, my values are for a government which is honest, effective and efficient.
– Lee Kuan Yew (b. 1923)

Two years ago, the new seven-member Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party Politburo – the most powerful political entity in the country – was introduced to great fanfare. All seven men walked on stage wearing a dark suit and a red tie, but to me the most striking aspect of their appearance was their hair. Yes, their hair. Their dark, immaculately coifed, powerful hair. Despite an average age of 65, not one of these men has EVER been seen in public without sporting a mane that would make their grandsons proud.

On the other hand, consider this handsome man, Bo Xilai. Once the princeling of princelings, the son of a Long March vet, Bo was enormously popular for his Redder-than-Thou politics and enormously rich from his mayoral “crackdown” on organized crime in Chongqing, a municipality with about the same urban population as New York City. To put Bo Xilai in a US context, he was richer than Michael Bloomberg and more politically ambitious than Rudy Giuliani, if either of those two qualities can be imagined. And of course, this 65 year old politician had the luxurious jet-black hair as befits a man of his position.

But alas, Bo’s political reach exceeded his political grasp. Undone publicly for abuse of office and a murder conspiracy, privately for his creation of a top-notch intelligence operation that spied on his fellow Politburo princelings (again to put in a US context, imagine if a mega-billionaire mayor of New York City created his own electronic FBI that could monitor everyone’s market activities … crazy, right?), Bo found himself on the wrong end of a show trial and is currently living out the rest of his days in a Madoff-style cell. How do we know that Bo is gone for good, that he has lost whatever political support he formerly commanded? Because they took away his hair dye. He’s “gone gray”, as they say in the Chinese political lingo, portrayed to the world as a frail old man who not only lost his freedom but much more importantly lost his mojo.
 

 

Patrick Henry famously said, “Give me liberty or give me death!”, a sentiment that makes sense in Western political culture but is met with puzzled looks in the East. Personal liberty is, in an important sense, everything in Western political culture. In Chinese political culture … not so much.  On the other hand, signifiers of personal potency – like maintaining dark hair – have enormous meaning in China and, at times, a diametrically opposed meaning in the West. 
 

 
 
*********************************************************************
 

Okay, Ben, kinda interesting in a cultural anthropology sort of way, but what in the world does this have to do with investing?

Simply this, and it’s a core Epsilon Theory tenet: the meaning of events and market signals differ hugely from country to country, tribe to tribe, generation to generation. Ferguson does not mean the same thing as Hong Kong. Hong Kong does not mean the same thing as Tahrir Square or even Tiananmen Square. Monetary policy does not mean the same thing in Beijing as monetary policy means in Washington, which in turn does not mean the same thing as monetary policy in Paris or Rome. But we have an innate tendency to act as if these signals DO mean the same thing, and we can totally wrong-foot our investments as a result.

The biggest thing happening in the world today is the growing divergence between US monetary policy and everyone else’s monetary policy. There is a schism in the High Church of Bernanke, with His US acolytes ending the QE experiment in no uncertain terms, and His European and Japanese prelates looking to keep the faith by continued balance sheet expansion.

That divergence plays out mostly in exchange rates, and it has three HUGE implications, one for investment strategy selection, one for global growth, and one for … (gulp!) gold.

First, this is great news for global macro strategies and their low-cost, populist cousins, so-called “alternative beta” strategies. Global macro performance has been absolutely atrocious over the past five years, driven primarily by a coordinated global monetary policy regime that squeezed out the historical patterns of difference between geographies and asset classes. Now that monetary policy is uncoordinated, with every major economic region essentially fending for itself, global macro and alternative beta strategies have “room” to work. To be sure, some of these strategies will still be confounded by an investment regime where monetary policy trumps economic fundamentals at every turn, but the sine qua non for ANY active investment strategy is distinction and dispersion. For the first time in more than five years, we can see this sort of distinction and dispersion in regional macroeconomic policies, giving traditional global macro strategies at least a chance of success. Vive la difference!

Second, this divergence in regional monetary policy creates enormous strains on the tectonic plates of modern international trade – currency exchange rates. In the absence of a re-convergence of monetary policy I don’t see any compelling reason why recent dollar appreciation should slow down, much less reverse itself, with the obvious consequences for US S&P 500 earnings (negative), commodity prices and commodity-related securities (negative), most EM markets (negative), and European and Japanese earnings (positive). But the greatest risk for global economic stability from a dollar on steroids is, for my money, China. Why? Because as I’ve tried to point out in prior Epsilon Theory notes (here, here, and here), China’s political stability depends on economic growth – it’s the mojo of the Party just as surely as jet-black hair is the mojo of Party leaders – and Chinese growth depends on exports. So long as the yuan is effectively tethered to the dollar, a stronger dollar means a stronger yuan, which means weaker exports to Europe, Japan, and EM’s. Sure, it’s cheaper now to buy more iron ore and copper, so I suppose you could build another ghost city or two to keep the growth train on track, but the Politburo’s only serious answer to the politically existential question of growth is to sell more advanced products to more people, most of whom don’t live in China. That means selling medical devices to Japan and telecom equipment to Germany, tasks made much more difficult by a stronger dollar/yuan. To be clear, I do NOT see some imminent economic collapse in China. But growth is much less certain in China today, and that’s a political problem that the Politburo will stop at nothing to fix. I expect the 180-degree shift in Chinese monetary policy that began this January and paused this summer to accelerate again, which in turn will accelerate political tensions abroad with the US and Japan, as well as political tensions domestically with the mega-rich princeling families. And speaking of domestic political tensions …

Look, I don’t think the meaning of Hong Kong – even to the participants – is some pro-democracy uprising a la the Arab Spring or any of the “color revolutions” our media is so quick to christen. Maybe if we start to see fewer English-language signs and fewer teenagers lifting their smartphone “candles” I’ll change my mind, but right now it seems a lot more like a tepid expression of political identity than a determined effort by determined citizens to change the political system at a fundamental level. This isn’t a release-the-hounds moment like Deng believed Tiananmen Square to be, and it looks like the Gang of Seven in Beijing have decided as much with new orders to pull the police back and let the protesters block traffic and annoy everyone in the city who just wants to get back to business.

But I do think there’s a deeper implication of the Hong Kong protests, one likely to be missed by Western investors who want to project a Western meaning on the events taking place. I think the most important lesson that mainland leaders in the CCP and PLA will take away from the Hong Kong protests is not that the population must be brought to heel, but that they can’t be trusted, that they’re not really one of us. And that’s okay to a certain degree … the potential of “contagion” from Hong Kong to, say, Chongqing seems really remote given the State’s control over media and information flow … but it’s not okay if the “transmission wires” of Hong Kong’s financial system can’t be trusted. Hong Kong is an indispensable financial intermediary for the Chinese State, and I have zero doubt that Beijing will move to cement their control over the sinews of real power here, by any means necessary. One of those sinews of real power is the Hong Kong dollar, which means that Hong Kong monetary policy and the Hong Kong Currency Board – already reduced to a semi-independent satrap – is about to make the transition to full-fledged puppet. This lesson won’t be lost on the mega-rich Chinese princelings, either. The days of parking your mainland wealth in Hong Kong are now over, as it’s no longer a safe haven from the long arm of the CCP. Let the capital flight begin, and watch out below for the Hong Kong dollar.

As for my third point – the implications of monetary policy divergence on gold – I’m always reticent to write about gold because it incites such passion (and I don’t just mean the gold bug camp … poke pretty much any academically-trained economist and you will unleash a furious anti-gold tirade). To be clear, I believe that the meaning of gold today is NOT as a store of value but as an insurance policy against central banks losing control. With market faith in the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence at an asymptotic top, the price of that insurance policy – call it $1,200/oz – is as low as it’s going to go. And now with a schism in the High Church of Bernanke, monetary policy divergence, and growing pressures on the tectonic plates of exchange rates we have catalysts for both a generic and geographically specific central bank loss of control.

Now I understand that gold means different things to different people, and to the degree that gold trades as a commodity or a dollar-denominated store of value it can trade cheaper as the dollar advances. I get that. But I don’t think that’s been the principal meaning of gold for the past 5+ years, and if you think as I do that this is the beginning of the end for the Golden Age of the Central Banker (or at least the end of the beginning), gold is pretty interesting here.

First Gold, Then Silver And Now…Platinum Manipulation Says Expert

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 04:31 PM PDT

Gold Cartel author Dimitri Speck is back on Kitco News to share his latest manipulation findings in the precious metals markets. According to Speck, there are price discrepancies in the platinum market during the time of the morning and afternoon fixes. “In my opinion, the core problem with the precious metals manipulation is not only the fixing but the manipulation of

Silver and Gold Prices Rose with the Gold Price Up 0.34 Percent at $1,214.60

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 04:27 PM PDT

1-Oct-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,210.504.100.34%
Silver Price, $/oz17.210.201.20%
Gold/Silver Ratio70.337-0.603-0.85%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01420.00010.86%
Platinum Price1,287.70-10.80-0.83%
Palladium Price787.708.751.12%
S&P 5001,946.16-26.13-1.32%
Dow16,804.71-238.19-1.40%
Dow in GOLD $s286.98-5.06-1.73%
Dow in GOLD oz13.88-0.24-1.73%
Dow in SILVER oz976.45-25.72-2.57%
US Dollar Index86.00-0.40-0.46%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Finally, finally the GOLD PRICE rose! And silver! Gold climbed 0.34% or $4.10 to $1,214.60 while silver skyrocketed 20.4 cents (1.2%) to $17.21. Never thought I'd be thankful to see silver at $17.21, but I am.

Yesterday SILVER PRICE low came at $16.85, today at $16.86, so there's a little double bottom there. On a daily chart the moves looks impulsive, that is, it appears that markets direction is UP.

My gut tells me that today was the turn for metals, but then, my gut also tells me sometimes to eat Thai food, so my gut's not too reliable. Before I will trust my gut or my instinct, I want that silver to PROVE itself by smashing through $17.50, and then through the downtrend line at $17.75, and pushing on toward the 20 DMA at $18.24. Y'all watch it now! When that silver makes its mind up to rise, it'll blind you.

The GOLD PRICE has made a two day bottom about $1,205, but was stopped today by $1,220. That won't do. I want to see gold beat $1,232 (20 DMA). I remind y'all that gold has walked through its downtrend line, so it stands outside the downtrend but has not yet begun to rally seriously.

Yea! MACD turned up for gold today, and it is climbing up out of oversold (RSA at 33.57).

'Tis nothing yet more than a feeling, but with stocks plummeting and the dollar hesitating, things look better for silver and gold prices.

Whooo-eee! Them stocks took a bad beating with an uglystick today!

Dow dove 238.19 (-1.4%) to land at 16,804.71. S&P500 plunged 26.13 (-1.32%) to 1,946.16.

It's always helpful to take stock (owch!) of these falls. Here's how far indices have fallen since their last highs:

Dow Jones Industrial Average, -3.2%

S&P500 -3.6%

Nasdaq Comp., -4.1%

Nasdaq 100, -3.3%

Wilshire 5000, -4.0%

Russell 2000 small cap, -10.55%.

Now look inside the Dow and S&P500. Both have fallen below their last lows (16,937 and 1,978). Both are below their 20 and now their 50 day moving averages (16,932 and 1,976). Relative strength indicators stand below 50 mark (40.33 and 36.81). MACD and full stochastics point down. Finally, volume is rising as price falls, reinforcing the move and building steam. The more it falls, the more people sell.

Whether we saw the ultimate top in September or that comes later in the year, stocks are now in full-gear correction mode. Durn! I forgot to mention that the Dow has fallen through its uptrend line from March 2009.

Dow in gold flashed its first confirmation of a trend reversal downwards today by closing below the 20 DMA (13.87 oz or G$286.72 gold dollars) at 13.83 oz (G$285.89), down 1.92%. All indicators point down, another reason I believe that the Dow in Gold has pinpointed the top in stocks.

Numbers for the Dow in Silver showing up on Stockcharts today differ from what I saw and reported yesterday, but because it was likely the high, I report it to you at 1,004.59 oz (S$1,298.86 silver dollars).

Today the Dow in Silver fell 2.55% to 979.01 oz (S$1,265.79). DiS still needs to close below its 20 dma (938 oz now or S$1,212.77 to confirm reversal, but that's not in doubt. Oversoldness is rapidly falling (RSI now 68.29), other indicators rolling over earthward.

By the way, a "dollar" of silver is defined by law as 371.25 grains or 0.7734375 troy ounce. That means that S$1,000 contains 773.4375 ounce of silver newly minted, and that $1.2929 = one troy ounce.

US dollar index backed down four basis points to 86, so has not yet evidenced a reversal. Remains historically overbought.

Euro lost 0.1% to end at $1.2640. It giveth no sign of turning up, but has left behind two gaps, which looks like a completed move.

Yen got tired of people calling it "Skinny" and kicking sand in its face and today rared up 0.585 to 91.74. That appears to be a reversal. MACD has turned up, but still needs to rise more to confirm.

Mercy, me, look at that 10 year treasury note yield! That thang pulled the plug today, falling 4.19% to 2.403%. Remember that bond yields move opposite to bond prices. People fleeing stocks are pressing into bonds for "safety." Ain't that a joke, now, anybody fleeing to the sorry debt of the US Government priced in scrofulous sinking dollars! I will admit the US government hasn't defaulted on its debt as often as Argentina, but I count at least three times, not counting the daily default by chronic, intentional inflation. Dollars tomorrow will always be worth less than dollars today.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

"Not A Good Sign" Argentine Stocks, Bonds Crash As Central Bank Chief Resigns

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 04:15 PM PDT

Just a day after Argentine President Cristina Kirchner, in a televised speech, accused central bank employees of helping local bankers to speculate against the Argentine peso in hopes of forcing the government to devalue the currency, Juan Carlos Fabrega - the head of Argentina's Central Bank - has quit. As WSJ reports, unable to borrow abroad due to a legal dispute with creditors, Mrs. Kirchner has relied on money printing to cover spending deficits at the expense of inflation that is thought to be around 40%; and it appears the sanity of Mr. Fabrega was too much to bear for Kirchner (and Kiciloff - who had reportedly clashed with the Central Banker also). The reaction - not good - the stock index collapsed over 8%, bond yields spiked and the black-market peso dumped to record lows at 15.65 to the USD (drastically worse than the 8.51 official peso rate).

Fabrega's departure is "Not a good sign," said Alberto Ramos, a Goldman Sachs analyst Alberto Ramos, Reuters reports. 

 

"Fabrega was perceived to be a moderating voice and someone that really understood financial market dynamics."

As The Wall Street Journal reports,

Argentine President Cristina Kirchner replaced the head of the central bank Wednesday, marking the second overhaul of her economic team in less than a year.

 

Mrs. Kirchner named her top securities and exchange regulator, Alejandro Vanoli, as central bank governor after she accepted Juan Carlos Fabrega's resignation, according to a statement posted on the presidency's press website.

 

Mr. Fabrega's resignation came a day after Mrs. Kirchner in a televised speech accused central bank employees of helping local bankers to speculate against the Argentine peso in hopes of forcing the government to devalue the currency. Argentina's central bank has little autonomy from the federal government and the president in practice can hire and fire its senior executives at whim.

 

"You blame me for the flight of capital and the rising dollar, that's fine," said Kirchner speaking to Fabrega in the front row of her public speech. "I feel for the dollar losses and not another one should leave the country. Besides that, you continue to have a problem with the economy that I don't have to solve. Just be sure another dollar does not leave the country."

 

Mr. Vanoli, who had served as head of the National Securities Commission since November 2009, takes the helm of a central bank whose main task is financing the federal government. Unable to borrow abroad due to a legal dispute with creditors, Mrs. Kirchner has relied on money printing to cover spending deficits at the expense of inflation that is thought to be around 40%.

 

Since 2010, the Kirchner administration has also borrowed tens of billions of U.S. dollars from the central bank's reserves to pay creditors. High inflation and declining reserves, now at $27.9 billion, have undermined faith in the currency and spurred some Argentines to seek the safe haven of the U.S. dollar.

 

Mr. Fabrega was widely respected among the country's bankers thanks to a career of more than 40 years at the country's largest bank, state-run Banco de la Nacion.

*  *  *

Stocks crashed...

 

Bonds tumbled...

 

and the Dolar Blue collapsed...

 

*  *  *

Good luck Mr. Vanoli...

Louise Yamada On The War In The Gold & Silver Markets

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 04:07 PM PDT

With the ongoing war in the gold and silver markets, today King World News is pleased to share a piece of legendary technical analyst Louise Yamada's "Technical Perspectives" report. Yamada is without question one of the greatest technical analysts Wall Street has ever seen. This information is not available to the public and we are grateful to Louise for sharing her incredible work with KWN readers globally.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Ebola-Stricken West African Economies Are Crashing

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 03:44 PM PDT

We warned five weeks ago of the potential economic damage that the Ebola virus could do to West African economies, and now it appears The IMF, The World Bank, and the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization have warned that Liberia and other West African economies, as WaPo reports, begun a frightening descent into economic hell. Fear that "that people would abandon the fields and factories, that food and fuel would become scarce and unaffordable, and that the government’s already meager capacity to help, along with the nation’s prospects for a better future, would be severely compromised" are no longer scenarios - they are real! Annual inflation rates have doubled, fuel sales are down 35%, Liberia's productivity is down 50-75%, and "micro-trade" financing is "completely depleted."

The IMF warns “In addition to exacting a heavy human toll, the Ebola outbreak is having a severe economic and social impact, and could jeopardize the gains from a decade of peace.”

With WHO and CDC expecting a worst case scenario now, the $809 million collapse in GDP across Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia is stunning...

 

As The Washington Post reports,

Three recent reports from international organizations that seem to bear out the worst-case scenarios of months ago: that people would abandon the fields and factories, that food and fuel would become scarce and unaffordable, and that the government’s already meager capacity to help, along with the nation’s prospects for a better future, would be severely compromised.

 

They are no longer scenarios. They are real. While these trends have been noted anecdotally, the cumulative toll is horrific.

 

The basic necessities of survival in Liberia — food, transportation, work, money, help from the government — are rapidly being depleted, according to recent reports by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

 

...

 

The International Monetary Fund said in a separate report that restrictions on public transport, internal travel and trade are burdening the country’s ability to distribute the food that is available.

 

The combination is driving up food prices rapidly, said the IMF even as “panic buying” is boosting demand, according to the World Bank. The IMF is projecting an inflation rate of 13.1 percent by year’s end, compared with 7.7 percent before the Ebola epidemic started taking its toll.

 

Transportation has been badly disrupted, one indicator being a drop of between 20 and 35 percent in fuel sales.

 

The services sector, about half of Liberia’s economy, employing about 45 percent of the work force, has experienced a drop in turnover of 50 to 75 percent, the World Bank says.

 

Savings and loan programs, called “susu,” that finance “micro-trade” and small businesses — especially those run by women — have been “completely depleted,” with participants no longer able to pay their debts, said the FAO.

 

Projections for short-term and long-term economic growth are getting ratcheted downward, with the worst-case estimates nothing short of catastrophic. The World Bank, looking at 2014 alone, projected a reduction in growth in Liberia from 5.9 percent to 2.5 percent, a plunge that would be considered calamitous in any country. In 2015, under its most dire but altogether realistic scenario, Liberia’s output could decrease by nearly 12 percent in 2015.

 

Projections for inflation are moving upward, with the IMF estimating an inflation rate of 13.1 percent by year’s end, compared with 7.7 percent the year before.

 

On top of it all, the revenue coming in to the Liberian government has dropped sharply, by 20 percent, Liberia’s foreign minister Augustine Kpehe Ngafuan told the United Nations earlier this week. “Consequently, our ability to provide for basic social services and continue to fund key development projects are significantly diminished.

*  *  *
“The Ebola epidemic is washing away years of progress and hard work,” said the FAO in its Sept. 23 report.

How the Swiss Could Set Off a Financial Avalanche

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 03:01 PM PDT

Hmmm… Looks as if the "safety trade" is on today. As we write, the Dow is down 1.5%, falling below 17,000… whoops, 16,900… uh, make that 16,800.

Hot money is flooding into Treasuries, raising prices and lowering rates. The yield on a 10-year note, near 2.5% at the close yesterday, sits near 2.4% now.

Gold is catching a bit of a bid — up about eight bucks, to $1,216. Crude? Not so much — down to $90.74, near an 18-month low.

The elite media are latching on to "global growth fears" as a handy explanation.

It being the first of the month, traders get to chew on various measures of manufacturing around the world. With all of these numbers, a reading above 50 indicates growth in factory activity; below 50, contraction…

  • China: Steady at 51.1
  • Eurozone: Down to 50.3. But Germany — the locomotive of Europe's economic train — is now in contraction
  • United States: Down more than two points, to 56.6, lower than even the most pessimistic guess among dozens of economists polled by Bloomberg.

Bloomberg is trying its best to spin the U.S. number as a good thing, saying U.S. factory activity is cooling into a more "sustainable" expansion. Heh…

As market events go, the disappointing manufacturing numbers amount to a mere snowflake in the giant shelf of snow that threatens a financial avalanche.

In recent weeks, we've explored a few potential snowflakes that might set off the big slide, even as we acknowledge it's a bit of a parlor game. Our friend Jim Rickards is fond of pointing out that you never know which snowflake will be the trigger; you know only that the imbalances from the Panic of 2008 haven't been addressed and, indeed, are even worse now than they were then. And the snow keeps falling.

That said…

One possible avalanche trigger has a precise timing mechanism — 60 days from now.

On Nov. 30, Swiss voters go to the polls to chart the future of their nation's gold hoard… and maybe set off a market shock in the process. On the ballot is a referendum with three major planks…

  • Switzerland's central bank would be forbidden from selling any of its gold
  • The central bank would be required to buy enough gold to equal 20% of the country's foreign-exchange reserves
  • All Swiss gold held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York would be returned to Switzerland.

By all measures, it's a modest proposal. It doesn't restore the gold backing the Swiss franc had up until around the year 2000. But Swiss bankers and politicians oppose it all the same.

Imagine the impact on the gold market should the referendum pass.

At the moment, gold makes up 7.7% of Switzerland's forex reserves. Goosing that to 20% would force the Swiss central bank to buy 1,500 tonnes of gold over the next three years.

How much gold is that? According to a research note from the Swiss banking giant UBS, "1,500 tonnes equates to half of the world’s annual production."

Mr. Rickards teases out what follows if there's a yes vote: "This would deliver both a demand shock (in terms of requiring new purchases) and a supply shock (in terms of depleting the gold in New York used to manipulate the market)," he writes in a briefing released yesterday to paying subscribers of our newest publication, Jim Rickards' Strategic Intelligence. (You can get access to this briefing right here — no "long-winded presentation" to watch beforehand.)

"The gold market and central banks," Jim goes on, "are whistling past this graveyard. They may be in for a shock when the votes are counted."

Regards,

Dave Gonigam
for The Daily Reckoning

[Avalanche Watch: Jim has compiled a comprehensive list of 30 potential snowflakes that could trigger the financial avalanche... and eight investments that can keep you out of harm's way. In fact, three of those investments have the potential to double your money when the crisis hits. In today's issue of The 5 Min. Forecast, I gave my readers a chance to discover them directly -- and all the potential profit that comes with them. Click here now to secure your spot on this list.]

Silver Breaks to the Downside in a Big Way – Technical Picture

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 02:06 PM PDT

This is an excerpt from the daily StockCharts.com newsletter to premium subscribers, which offers daily a detailed market analysis (recommended service).

The SILVER tracking ETF (SLV) has penetrated major support and may well be leading the way lower for other precious metals. At the moment both the short-and intermediate KSTs are bearish and this is likely to put more downside pressure on the metal, notwithstanding any reflex rallies that might develop. The long-term series is flat but still above its MA. However, the recent drop below support by the price itself is likely to place downward pressure on it.

silver price 2011 September 2014 category technicals

The next chart shows the Silver price since its 1980 peak. Recent price action indicates a breakdown from a bearish right angled triangle. The downside objective calls for an eventual move back to support in the area of the 1987 and 2004 tops around $7.50.

silver price monthly 1980 September 2014 category technicals

Insights From 10 Year Gold to Silver Ratio And Sentiment

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 01:51 PM PDT

The gold to silver ratio (GSR) acts like a sentiment indicator. When the GSR is low both gold and silver are usually running upward and strong. When the ratio is high, like now (Sept. 30, 2014), gold and especially silver are priced low and disinterest is nearly universal.

This is my anecdotal interpretation of silver and gold sentiment from a high of 10 to a low of 1:

10: Silver is fantastic! I want to invest every last dollar into silver because I know it will quadruple by next year!

9: Gold is going great. I wish I had bought lots more a couple years ago!

8: Silver is a great investment. I spoke to my brother-in-law about buying more silver last night.

7: Gold looks good at this juncture. We might see a short term correction but long term gold should go much higher.

6: Silver investing can be dangerous but it has built a nice base and should be a safe buy at this time.

5. Gold belongs in the portfolio of most investors. We suggest a 3% allocation.

4. Silver has disappointed most investors for some time but I think we have a credible bottom here.

3. Gold is making me angry. I lost my ass on the stuff and now I'm just praying to break even.

2. Silver is a total disappointment! I should have bought S&P Index ETFs, or bond funds, or Florida Condos, or anything but silver. Silver was a huge mistake and the "gold bugs" are "out-to-lunch."

1. I never want silver or gold mentioned in this house again! Investing in silver is for fools, and gold is useless. Goldman Sachs was right. I hate the gold bugs and precious metals crazies and hard money crackpots who rant and rave about putting my savings into such useless crap.

On this anecdotal scale, I think current sentiment is about 1.5.

A disaster or an opportunity? Remember the admonitions:

  1. Buy when the blood is running in the streets.
  2. Buy when everyone is selling.
  3. Buy when nobody wants it.
  4. Buy low and sell high.

Consider this comment on current gold sentiment:

"Mark Hulbert's gold sentiment index is now at the second-lowest level ever.  Hulbert said, 'There has only been one time in the last 30 years when the HGNSI got any lower than it is today.  That came in June 2013 when it fell to minus 56.  Today it's at minus 46.9.'"

Examine the GSR for the past decade and compare the extremes in the ratio to the bottoms and tops in the price of silver.

gold silver ratio 2004 2014 price

The current GSR is approximately 70 – very high and the price of silver is at a 4.5 year low. I have circled other times when the ratio was either quite high or quite low. Those extreme readings usually marked highs or lows in the prices for silver and gold.

Other Ratios: Silver prices seem low or have increased slowly compared to: (no specific data provided)

  • The official national debt – over $17.7 Trillion. Since 1971 silver prices have increased by a factor of about 12, while the official national debt has increased by a factor of over 44.
  • The number of white house staff
  • Average single family housing prices
  • The price of a pack of premium cigarettes
  • The price of a gallon of gasoline
  • Average bonus on Wall Street
  • The price of health insurance
  • The price of a college education at a major university in the US
  • The price of hamburger
  • The price of a six-pack of beer
  • The price of a ticket to an NFL game

And the list goes on. Inflation is alive and well all over the world. Central banks are printing paper and digital money by the $Trillions, governments are borrowing by the $Trillions, and there appears to be no end in sight.

Of course it will change, prices will adjust, and assets will be revalued. In the meantime, ask yourself:

  • If a government is essentially bankrupt, can't pay its bills without going deeper into debt, and expects to increase its debts from $Trillions into $Quadrillions, how much is that country's currency really worth? How much are that country's 30 year bonds truly worth?
  • Silver and gold have been money and a store of value for over 3,000 years. Will they still have value in 20 years?
  • Central banks around the world are creating dollars, euros, yen, and yuan in what appears to be an endless process. Do you expect those currency units to retain their value? Hint: look at the inflation of prices in food and energy since 1971, since 1991, since 2001, and since 2008.
  • Will our financial system survive another 10 years without massive destruction in the value of PAPER assets?
  • Do you trust our politicians and central bankers to resolve our problems and improve our financial world? Hint: If excessive debt is at the core of our economic problems, will more debt fix our problems?

The GSR is approximately 70. That is an extremely high ratio and probably marks a major bottom in gold and silver prices. However, can the price of silver drop another buck? Of course! Do High-Frequency-Traders want to generate profits? Of course, and if they can smash silver down another buck, they will. But watch out for the snap-back rally. It will be impressive. Prices will reflect true value – eventually.

In the meantime, buy when blood is running in the streets, when sentiment is low, when prices have been smashed, and when nobody else wants to buy.

Silver and gold look good now!

 

Additional Reading:
Andy Hoffman: Historic Capitulation
Darryl Robert Schoon: The Price of Gold and the Art of War

 

Gary Christenson | The Deviant Investor

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Fly the Skies of Air Fed To and Through the Next Crisis

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 01:46 PM PDT

Gold, silver price suppression is 'mission critical' for Fed, Barron tells KWN

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 12:58 PM PDT

3:55p ET Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Mining entrepreneur Keith Barron today tells King World News that suppression of monetary metals prices has been "mission critical" for the Federal Reserve, which has been "doing everything it can to halt true price discovery" in those markets. Barron also warns that the Ebola virus, which appeared in the United States this week, has the potential to collapse commerce. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the KWN blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/10/1_Eb...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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One World, One Bank, One Currency

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 12:00 PM PDT

"The government is very good at making things overly complicated for the purpose of obscuring what's really going on from the public," observed hedge fund manager Erik Townsend during our interview in May.

He was making a point about the 2008 bailouts. The Federal Reserve played a leading role, applying trillions in paper-clip and rubber-band solutions. The Fed's balance sheet swelled from $900 billion in September 2008 to $4.4 trillion as we go to press.

Luckily for you, our friend Jim Rickards is just as good at elucidating the muddled world of finance as the government is at obscuring them.

Boiled down to its essence, the SDR is a kind of super money printed by the IMF…

"Since Federal Reserve resources were barely able to prevent complete collapse in 2008," Jim writes in his recent New York Times best-seller, The Death of Money, "it should be expected that an even larger collapse will overwhelm the Fed's balance sheet.”

Simply put, next time, printing another $3 trillion-plus won't be politically feasible. "The specter of the sovereign debt crisis suggests the urgency for new liquidity sources, bigger than those that central banks can provide, the next time a liquidity crisis strikes. The logic leads quickly from one world to one bank to one currency for the planet."

Leading the way, says Rickards, will be the International Monetary Fund. "The task of re-liquefying the world will fall to the IMF because the IMF will have the only clean balance sheet left among official institutions. The IMF will rise to the occasion with a towering issuance of SDRs, and this monetary operation will effectively end the dollar's role as the leading reserve currency."

Ah… the SDR. That's shorthand for "special drawing rights."

The name is cryptic. The mechanism will prove far more inscrutable than the Fed's alphabet-soup bailout programs in 2008. But the objective will be the same… to print money in the interest of keeping a rotten system functioning.

Boiled down to its essence, the SDR is a kind of super money printed by the IMF and then circulated among central banks and governments. Indeed, the IMF has issued SDRs three times since their creation more than 40 years ago. Each time was linked to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar…

1969: The French and others recognized the United States was printing too many dollars. At the time, foreigners could still exchange dollars for gold, and there was a run on Fort Knox. The IMF created the SDR to smooth the rough monetary seas, issuing 9.3 billion SDRs through 1972.

1979: U.S. inflation soared out of control, past 14%. Oil-producing countries fretted the value of their dollar reserves was plunging. The IMF issued 12.1 billion SDRs through 1981.

2009: In response to the Panic of 2008, the IMF issued 182.7 billion SDRs during August and September.

A 42-page IMF paper published in January 2011 with the innocuous-sounding title "Enhancing International Monetary Stability — A Role for the SDR?" — lays out what Rickards describes. "A multiyear, multistep plan to position the SDR as the leading global reserve asset. The study recommends increasing the SDR supply to make them liquid and more attractive to potential private-sector market participants such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup… The IMF study recommends that the SDR bond market replicate the infrastructure of the U.S. Treasury market, with hedging, financing, settlement and clearance mechanisms substantially similar to those used to support trading in Treasury securities today."

Not that you'd use it to buy a gallon of gas or a loaf of bread. "SDRs will perhaps never be issued in bank note form and may never be used on an everyday basis by citizens around the world. But even such limited usage does not alter the fact that the SDR is world money controlled by elites."

In fact, it enhances that role by making the SDR invisible to citizens. "The SDR can be issued in abundance to IMF members and can also be used in the future for a select list of the most important transactions in the world, including balance-of-payments settlements, oil pricing and the financial accounts of the world's largest corporations, such as Exxon Mobil, Toyota and Royal Dutch Shell."

The genius of the scheme is that the SDRs would create inflation… but ordinary people wouldn't know SDRs were causing it. "Any inflation caused by massive SDR issuance would not be immediately apparent to citizens. The inflation would show up eventually in dollars, yen and euros at the gas pump or the grocery, but national central banks could deny responsibility with ease and point a finger at the IMF."

The most provocative proposition in Rickards' book, however, isn't hidden global inflation. It's this: Before the SDR can assume its role as the new leading global asset, China must accumulate a much larger stash of gold. And the gold price is being manipulated for the express purpose of making sure China gets it relatively cheaply.

We've long chronicled China's gold accumulation. When we interviewed Mr. Rickards last year, he explained the rationale: "They want to be in a position where they just raise their hand and say to the world, 'Hey, we've got our gold, now we're a player. Now when the international monetary system collapses and the world has to reconfigure the system, we get a big seat at the table.'"

In The Death of Money, Rickards goes a step further: He says Western powers are making room at the table for China — using the precise mechanism we described in our "Zero Hour" scenario. Western central banks have "leased" their gold to commercial banks, and those commercial banks have sold that gold to Asian buyers — including the Chinese central bank.

"The gold price must be kept low," Rickards writes, "until gold holdings are rebalanced among the major economic powers, and the rebalancing must be completed before the collapse of the international monetary system."

The metric the power brokers are using to judge when China is ready to take its seat at the table? Gold reserves as a percentage of GDP. Recall the Chinese central bank last disclosed its gold holdings in April 2009 — 1,054 tonnes. Conservative estimates put that figure today at 2,710 tonnes. And as you see from the before-and-after tables nearby, it won't take much more before China's gold-GDP ratio equals America's.

"The United States and China have a shared interest in keeping the gold price low," Rickards writes, "until China acquires its gold… Once the rebalancing is complete, probably in 2015, there will be less reason to suppress gold's price, because China will not be disadvantaged in the event of a price spike."

His research and documentation is peerless. "Get the annual report from the Bank for International Settlements," he told us during our dinner talk. "Read the footnotes. I understand it's geeky, but it's there. They actually get audited — unlike the Fed and unlike Fort Knox."

Yet, we still wondered, who or what is the IMF's biggest enemy in carrying out its plan?

Time, replied Mr. Rickards. "A financial panic in the next several years, caused by derivatives exposure and bank interconnectedness, may trigger a global liquidity crisis worse than the 1998 and 2008 crises," he writes in his book. The IMF will step in but "the emerging circumstances will mean the process will be carried out on a crash basis, without reference to carefully constructed infrastructure now contemplated."

And as he suggested in Currency Wars, the IMF might even swallow its pride and resort to some form of gold standard if that's what it takes to restore confidence in the system.

But if that's what it takes, expect some ugly times ahead, like Ferguson, Missouri, but worse. "Riots, strikes, sabotage and other dysfunctions," complete with a "neofascist" response from well-armed authorities.

What can you do? What should you do?

First, prepare yourself by reading The Death of Money and understanding the seven signs Rickards says will point to a looming crisis. Then get cracking on the five investments he says can help you weather the storm.

"Any citizen can go on a personal gold standard by buying gold with paper dollars…"

If you haven't gotten a copy yet, we'd advise holding off — just for a while longer. We're working closely with Mr. Rickards on a brand-new project that will not only put his advice in your hands, but deliver constant updates and advice on how the coming monetary collapse will unfold.

In the meantime, you can probably guess what one of his recommendations is already: Go on your own gold standard right now, the rest of the world's governments be damned.

"A fixed exchange rate is not essential to gold's role in a contract money system," he said. "It is necessary only that the citizen be free to buy or sell gold at any time. Any citizen can go on a personal gold standard by buying gold with paper dollars…"

He says our Zero Hour remains a distinct possibility — in which the price of real gold you hold in your hand runs away from the "paper price" quoted on CNBC. He thinks it could even be the trigger for the next crisis.

"As long as [gold] holders remain in paper contracts," he writes, "the system is in equilibrium. If holders in large numbers were to demand physical delivery, they could be snowflakes on an unstable mountain of paper gold. When other holders realize that the physical gold will run out before they can redeem their contracts for bullion, the slide can cascade into an avalanche, a de facto bank run, except the banks in this case are the gold warehouses that support the exchanges and ETFs."

Even Warren Buffett — that tireless critic of gold and its inability to throw off cash flow — has bought something very similar to gold, says Rickards. "Buffett has been known to disparage gold, but he is the king of hard asset investing, and when it comes to the megarich, it is better to focus on their actions than their words."

Click the play button on the video below to see Jim explain what Buffett (and the Chinese) have been doing to pivot away from holding dollars.

Regards,

Addison Wiggin
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. There is still time for you to prepare for Zero Hour. And while gold and hard assets are a big part of that, they are by no means the only part. In fact, today’s issue of The Daily Reckoning email edition included three chances for readers to discover real, actionable profit opportunities they couldn’t find anywhere else. It’s one of the FREE benefits that come standard in every issue of the FREE Daily Reckoning email edition. Don’t miss another chance for you to discover real profit opportunities. Sign up for the FREE Daily Reckoning email edition, right here.

Banks pull out of dozens of benchmarks after rate-rigging scandals

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 11:17 AM PDT

By Daniel Schafer
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Some of the world's largest banks have stopped contributing to dozens of financial benchmarks to avoid further litigation risk in the wake of the Libor and foreign exchange rate rigging scandals.

Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, JPMorgan, and UBS, among others, have set up task forces to scrutinise submission processes for hundreds of benchmarks in everything from commodities to interbank lending as they seek to cut their litigation and regulatory risk, several people close to the situation said.

The withdrawals have already helped speed up revamps of the silver and gold fixes and reforms to some interbank lending benchmarks so that they are based on actual transactions rather than bank submissions.

But investors warned the crackdown could leave less liquid markets without any benchmark at all and make it impossible to determine whether they are getting fair prices on their derivatives and good returns on their investments. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3bc3d088-494b-11e4-9d7e-00144feab7de.html


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Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
Wednesday-Saturday, October 22-25, 2014

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520...

Mines and Money London
Business Design Centre
London, England, U.K.
Monday-Friday, December 1-5, 2014

http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

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Ebola Crisis, America Headed For Lockdown? Gold, Silver & Fed

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 11:10 AM PDT

Today one of the legends in the business warned King World News about the Ebola crisis and the possibility of America being headed for a lockdown. Keith Barron, who consults with major companies around the world and is responsible for one of the largest gold discoveries in the last quarter century, also what is happening with the gold and silver markets.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Join Sprott, Rule, and Embry on Oct. 7 to discuss the prospects for the monetary metals

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 10:53 AM PDT

1:52p ET Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA's friends from Sprott Asset Management -- Eric Sprott, Rick Rule, and John Embry -- will get together for an hour at 2 p.m. ET Tuesday, October 7, to discuss the prospects for the precious metals, and you can join them via the Internet. Just register here:

https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=reg20....

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
Wednesday-Saturday, October 22-25, 2014

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520...

Mines and Money London
Business Design Centre
London, England, U.K.
Monday-Friday, December 1-5, 2014

http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Bottom bounce will be historic rally for monetary metals, Leeb says

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 10:43 AM PDT

1:42p ET Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Fund manager Stephen Leeb tells King World News today that the next bottom in the monetary metals will commence a historic rally:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/9/30_A_...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Join the Sprott Precious Metals Roundtable on Tuesday, Oct. 7

Sprott Asset Management's Eric Sprott, Rick Rule, and John Embry will get together for an hour at 2 p.m. ET Tuesday, October 7, to discuss the prospects for the precious metals, and you can join them via the Internet. Just register here:

https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=reg20....



Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
Wednesday-Saturday, October 22-25, 2014

https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520...

Mines and Money London
Business Design Centre
London, England, U.K.
Monday-Friday, December 1-5, 2014

http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

In The News Today

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 09:39 AM PDT

Why China thinks gold is the buy of the century (. . . In one easy lesson*) by Michael J. Kosares (Excerpts) How formidable?  Consider this: - China could purchase the total United States gold reserve (8133 metric tonnes) with 8% of its foreign exchange reserves. - It could purchase the total global gold reserve... Read more »

The post In The News Today appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

Jim’s Mailbox

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 09:37 AM PDT

Jim, By hook or by crook this government intends to strip from our middle class every dollar they can. You don’t have to shrink the Social Security checks. You just withhold payment on your children’s student loans. CIGA Larry It happens: Seniors with student debt – and smaller Social Security checks CHICAGO – It’s a... Read more »

The post Jim’s Mailbox appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

The US Dollar days are Over -- Dr. Paul Craig Roberts

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 09:28 AM PDT

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts is an American economist and a columnist for Creators Syndicate. He served as an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration and was noted as a co-founder of Reaganomics. In this interview, he answers our followers' questions on the U.S. financial...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

One Metal to Watch in the Current Commodity Crash

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 07:54 AM PDT

A freefalling commodities market is quickly becoming the biggest disaster of the season.

You've seen the commodity carnage firsthand. For weeks, I've shown you piles of red candlesticks as wheat, corn, soybeans, precious and not-so-precious metals, oil, and gas have plummeted toward new lows.

Now, the floodgates are open. Crude fell off its chair yesterday afternoon, dropping more than 3% in only an hour. The swift plunge squashed oil's weeklong relief rally, wiping out all of its gains before the close of business.

Oil isn't the only casualty. Any attempt at a relief rally in the grains has been sufficiently snuffed out, too. Corn, wheat, and soybeans were each down about 1% yesterday. Of course, that red glow on your screen when you pull up the grains is nothing new. Back in July, I showed you how grains were rolling over. Every single one of them were down double-digits in just a few months.

The waterfall action in the DB Commodities Tracking Index Fund is impossible to miss. After hitting fresh lows yesterday, it's down nearly 10% on the year — and nearly 13% from its peak three months ago.

But the biggest loser this week is silver. I wrote just a few weeks ago that if you saw silver get close to the $18 breakdown area, it could be headed for trouble. And that's exactly what's happened. Silver cracked $18 a little over a week ago — and it has steadily trended lower ever since…

Spot Price of Silver Below $18

Yesterday, the drop accelerated. Silver smashed through $17, closing at $16.97. That's good enough for a 2.8% loss — and the lowest spot price recorded since early 2010.

So, can silver dig itself into a deeper hole from here? Absolutely. But you'll probably see violent counter-trend rallies as it continues to tumble. And as much as I despise longer-term predictions, I can see silver possibly cracking below $14 over then next 18 months or so. Sure, it won't drop straight down. But there's no doubt it's in a nasty bear market right now.

Regards,

Greg Guenthner
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. If you sold on the breakdown below $18 like we suggested (or bet against silver in any way), the big flush we're seeing this week is your chance to cash out. There will be plenty of other chances for you to play both sides of this trade. To learn about each of them as they come, sign up for my Rude Awakening e-letter, for FREE, right here.

Gold Bullion Bounces from 2014 Lows But "Lacks China Support" Against "Bullish Dollar"

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 06:45 AM PDT

GOLD BULLION rallied 0.9% from yesterday's new 2014 lows in Dollar terms in London on Wednesday, rising as European stock markets began the third quarter with a loss.
 
New data from private-sector ADP Payrolls said the US economy added 213,000 net jobs in September, in line with analysts forecasts.
 
The government's non-farm payrolls estimate – a key event for gold price volatility – is due Friday.
 
The Euro meantime held near two-years to the Dollar at $1.26, while Brent crude oil steadied at $95 per barrel, but corn prices extended their drop to new 5-year lows.
 
"With China on holiday" for the National Day start to Golden Week, says one Asian trading desk, "we saw little in the way of physical support" overnight, allowing gold bullion prices to dip below $1205 per ounce for the second time in two days.
 
Student leaders in Hong Kong's pro-democracy protests today demanded that the city's chief executive, C.Y.Leung, stand down by Thursday.
 
Crowds were reported to be gathering in Macau – the other "special administrative region" in China, the world's No.1 gold-buying nation in 2013 – to show their support.
 
"The reason for the price slide" in precious metals, says Commerzbank's commodity analysts, "[is] the significantly appreciating US Dollar."
 
Whilst the US Federal Reserve is set to end its QE asset purchases this month, says bullion market maker and former London Fixing member Deutsche Bank – preparing the markets for a rate hike in the first half of 2015 – "We expect the ECB will in contrast announce QE over the same period."
 
That divergence "will be US Dollar bullish and long-term bearish for gold," say Deutsche's analysts, adding that "over the past 20 years, the US Dollar has typically rallied by between 5-10% in the six to nine months before the Fed embarks on a new tightening cycle." 
 
"Overall," agrees the London office of brokers Marex Spectron, "the pressure will remain on the [precious metals] complex, and with the Dollar's continued strength, we remain sellers of rallies."
 
As silver prices bounced from fresh 4.5-year lows beneath $17 per ounce on Wednesday, platinum prices today slid to new 5-year lows, dropping 15% from July's one-year high.
 
Platinum's premium to gold fell this morning to $65 per ounce – the lowest level in nearly 12 months, and markedly below the near $200 premium seen at New Year.
 
Used primarily in auto catalysts by the motor industry, "Platinum fundamentals do not justify prices below $1300," says Swiss bank UBS, "and the current weakness should be viewed as a buying opportunity." 
 
"We view platinum price as too low at $1300," agrees South Africa's Standard Bank – whose commodities unit is 60% owned by China's ICBC, the world's largest bank by assets – although "we don't expect it to rise much above $1400 anytime soon."
 
Looking at gold bullion, prices "will struggle to gain upside in the next two quarters" to spring 2015, Standard Bank goes on in its latest Global Commodities review.
 
Any "stronger physical demand from Asia on the back of seasonal trends" will fail to drive prices higher, the research says. "Short-covering rallies" led by bearish traders closing their bets against gold "will ultimately fade."

Gold Is â€Ĺ“Universally Acceptable” and Why China Is Buying - Greenspan

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 05:04 AM PDT

Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Fed, had an article entitled “Golden Rule - Why Beijing Is Buying” published in Foreign Policy, the journal of the influential Council on Foreign Relations in which he extols the virtues of gold as “universally acceptable.”

3rd Quarter Wrap Up

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 05:00 AM PDT

“The future is here – it's just not evenly distributed.” ~ William Gibson

By Catherine Austin Fitts

The US dollar index moved above 85 last week while the US stock market continued to levitate. This caused hundreds of pundits to scratch their heads looking for fashionable ways of explaining why managed markets [...]

Max Igan : Money System is the head of the snake

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 04:05 AM PDT

Max Igan at the Open Mind Conference 2014 The so called money markets are manipulated to give a false sense of security to the people of geopolitical economically dependent societies, the only value a dollar has is a perceived one it is nothing more than a belief  in the central banks...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold Prices Killed by Not-So "Super" Dollar

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 04:03 AM PDT

Gold prices have been hammered by the rising US Dollar. What might October hold...?
 
DOLLAR UP, gold down, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.
 
That's pretty much the lesson for precious metals investors looking at any long-term rise in the US Dollar since exchange rates began floating in 1973.
 
And now in late 2014, says former chief economist at Swiss bank UBS, George Magnus "It looks as though the third US Dollar uptrend of the post-Bretton Woods era may be underway." Just so long as you also ignore his warning against "extrapolating" short-term noise into long-term forecasts...
Gold price vs. US Dollar Index, 1973 to 2014, daily data
Might Magnus be right? For gold prices, as the chart shows, it's less the absolute level than the Dollar's direction of travel that counts. Starting from all-time lows in spring 2011, today's greenback hardly matches the "Super Dollar" of the early 1980s. Yet the background rhymes...
  • Commodities glut after a long bull market? Check...
  • Disinflation in consumer prices? Check...
  • Weak competitor economies in Europe? Check...
  • Over-borrowed emerging markets? Check...
  • Strong US monetary policy, raising rates on the Dollar? Well, no. Not by a long way.
Even with the Federal Reserve still sticking however to its "considerable" delay for raising rates from zero, the third-quarter of 2014 proved ugly for Dollar investors holding non-US assets.
 
Gold for US investors marked the end of Q3 by hitting new 2014 lows, losing 5.8% on the London PM Fix for the month of September alone. Silver fell to the lowest Dollar price since May 2010...down more than 12% from the end of August.
 
Yet gold priced in Euros, in contrast, remains near the top of its 12-month range. Even in the British Pound...flattered by Tuesday's GDP revisions...gold has held 3% higher from New Year.
 
Gold's recent drop, in other words, is entirely relative. And this split between Dollar and non-Dollar gold prices might widen in October.
 
First there is the European Central Bank's meeting concluding Thursday. Mario Draghi and his team have long hinted at some kind of QE-style money printing. The latest inflation print of just 0.3% per year across the 18-nation union will loom large.
 
Then, in the last week of October, the US Federal Reserve will face the opposite problem. It is set to taper the last $15 billion of its monthly QE printing. That leaves rising inflation, and strong GDP, begging for an end to the "extended time" promised for zero US interest rates. 
 
Before then, we've got US jobs data Friday (with an early look in ADP's private-sector estimate mid-week). Then, mid-month, the European Court of Justice will hear a legal challenge to the Eurozone central bank's Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT)...the 2012 plan which finally stemmed the single currency's debt crisis. 
 
Mario Draghi hasn't actually fired any OMT money at weak-economy bonds yet. But if the Court decides the plan is illegal (insomniacs will enjoy reading the arguments here. Or better still here) it could spark fresh panic...out of Greek, Spanish and other debt-heavy markets...pulling the Euro lower again. 
 
Analysts are of course aligned with the Euro bears betting against the currency in the forex market. Barclays Bank today cut its 12-month forecast for EUR/USD from $1.25 to $1.10 – a move which, if matched by the Dollar's other major crosses, would take the trade-weighted index to a decade high of 90 or so. Gold prices in 2004 were trading below $400 per ounce. So a blunt analysis, never mind the momentum in gold futures and options betting, says a fall in the Euro must push bullion prices lower again as the US Dollar surges. After all, it worked like clockwork in the other direction.
 
"Gold up, Dollar down" was so solid between 2002 and 2008, it became a no-brainer trade for no-brain hedge funds. The US currency fell 30% against its major trading peers on the forex market. Gold meantime rose 160% in Dollar terms. But this relationship broke down during the financial crisis. Because gold kept rising...and rising...while the Dollar whipped higher.
 
What are the odds today? Playing the averages, and reviewing the last 40 years (daily data, 12-month change), gold has been twice as likely to rise when the US currency is weakening on the forex market than when the Dollar Index is getting stronger. And when gold drops hard...down 10% or more from 12 months before...the Dollar has been rising 91% of the time.
 
No-brain traders are betting this rule-of-thumb will hold firm as 2014 ends, and gold will keep falling in Dollar terms as the US currency gains versus the Euro, Yen, Pound and the rest. 
 
But watch out. Because since 1974, gold and the Dollar have also moved in the same direction some 30% of the time. And when gold rises as the Dollar also goes up (21% of the last 40 years), its gains have been markedly better on average than when the Dollar is falling. 
 
Yes, really. When gold has risen against a background of Dollar strength, gold priced in Dollars has gained 24% year-on-year on average. It's averaged 18% gains when the Dollar's been falling. 
 
Of course, investors tend to buy gold and the Dollar together when crisis hits. Not only, but not always either. You could cite any number of crises where gold failed to rise with the Dollar, and pitch them against the gold price surge of Soviet Russia invading Afghanistan in 1979, the 2008 Lehmans crash, or the 2010 Eurozone meltdown.
 
Never mind if those events sound at all familiar here in late 2014. Ignore the fact that a rising Dollar...plus rising gold...adds up to 30% more fun for non-US investors trying to defend their money against crisis. Financial markets have avoided seeing any trouble ahead all year. So far. As an investment banker puts it to the Financial Times today...applauding this year's surge in global mergers and acquisitions..."I have never seen a market more resilient than it is today, in terms of absorbing geopolitical and financial risk."
 
Such complacency is the reason gold investing exists, whatever the outlook for the Dollar (and "Everything seems to be Dollar positive," says another forex strategist...also tempting fate).

Here be treasure: map of where Brits are hoarding gold

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 02:52 AM PDT

The secret gold buying habits of UK customers has been revealed in an exclusive report for the Telegraph




Gold hoarding secrets of the UK mapped

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 02:52 AM PDT

The secret gold buying habits of UK customers has been revealed in an exclusive report for the Telegraph




Why The U.S. Fed WILL Raise Interest Rates

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 02:41 AM PDT

This is not the first time I’ve written on this topic, but I want to do it again, because rate hikes, when they come, will have a tremendous effect on everybody’s loves and economies, wherever you live. And because I think there’s still far too much complacency out there, far too much ‘conviction’ that higher rates will come only after a comfortable period of time, and even then only gradually. There are three steps in the Fed’s ‘policies’. There’s QE, which will end in October. There’s ultra low interest rates, which have so far been maintained. And then there’s the dollar, whose rate many people still think is determined by the ‘markets’, even if the Fed is in effect the ‘markets’. When the Fed buys, or makes third parties buy, bonds and stocks (and we know it has), it’s not going to let the dollar roam free. That makes no sense.

It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again as the Russian Ruble Crashes

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 02:27 AM PDT

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Battered by sanctions, the Russian ruble has fallen to historic lows against the U.S. dollar. The last time the ruble slid this far was in the late 1990′s when I was still writing for an inside market publication called Russia Crisis Watch during theRussian financial crisis. Three times a week Crisis would document the “real” condition of the Russian economy, while providing market intelligence from a network inside and outside the country.

Why China Thinks Gold is the Buy of the Century

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 02:12 AM PDT

Let's start with some big, but digestible numbers: $3,950,000,000,000 = China’s total foreign exchange reserves $1,250,000,000,000 = Value of the world’s 31,866 metric tonnes gold reserve at $1220/troy ounce

Forex Volatility Predicts Bottom in Gold and Silver?

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 01:49 AM PDT

Summary Volatility in foreign exchange market as investors flee euro and yen for liquid U.S. dollar. Euro and yen hitting multi-year lows. Inflation picking up outside US. US dollar seen as temporary safe haven. Could the US dollar be the next currency to decline? Precious metals and junior miners trading at historic discounts should be considered as an alternative to fiat currency. Deflations set the stage for hyper-inflations.

Canaccord's Joe Mazumdar Shares His Favorite Get Rich Slow Schemes

Posted: 01 Oct 2014 01:00 AM PDT

Gold prices are down, but the prospects for fully funded development stories are up. In this interview with The Gold Report, Canaccord Genuity Analyst Joe Mazumdar shares the stories that are moving forward despite the downturn in commodity prices, and names some companies that could be the next takeover success stories.

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