Gold World News Flash |
- “Stunning Demand” One Individual Buying $40 MILLION of GOLD
- Ned Naylor-Leyland Suggests Media Overhanging an Exposé of Rigging in the Silver Markets
- Hathaway - Absolutely Stunning Developments In Gold
- This Chart Proves Stock Market Will COLLAPSE if Fed Stops QE3
- World’s almond supply approaching collapse due to California drought
- A Rational Look at Gold
- 5 U.S. Banks Each Have More Than 40 Trillion Dollars In Exposure To Derivatives
- Von Greyerz sees onset of a worldwide depression
- LBMA names Citigroup as gold and silver market maker
- The Gold Price Rose $2.60 Today on Comex and Ended at $1,221.20
- "The Gig Is Up"
- Research Shows Positive Correlation Between Economic growth And Gold Demand
- Mr. Cohan Responds On His Silver Rigging Exposé - Two US National Publications Refused the Story
- Silver Prices: Your opinion is cordially requested
- Insights From The 10 Year Gold, Silver And Dollar Chart
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Curiouser and Curiouser
- Global Market Collapse & Wealth Destruction Is Now Upon Us
- It’s The U.S. Dollar, Stupid!
- The Ethics of “Making the Empire Pay”
- Huge demand for discounted gold and silver told at King World News
- Slavery in the Digital Age
- Ned Naylor-Leyland Suggests Media Overhanging an Exposé of Rigging in the Silver Markets
- Currency Wars Deepen - Russia, Kazakhstan Buy Very Large 30 Tons Of Gold In August
- “Stunning Demand” One Individual Buying $40 Million Of Gold
- Jim’s Mailbox
- Gold Bullion Spikes as Stocks Tumble After Mixed US Data, Analysts Cut Price Forecasts
- Strong U.S. Dollar Pressures Gold
- Gold price seen near tipping point for mine cuts and closures
- Weak gold price has Dubai consumers clamoring for more
- Thursday Morning Links
- UK moves to extend Libor rigging laws to oil, gold, and currency markets
- The Venture Capital Bubble and the Apple Watch
- Dollar Pushes Higher
| “Stunning Demand” One Individual Buying $40 MILLION of GOLD Posted: 25 Sep 2014 10:00 PM PDT from Gold Money:
I'm not sure how long the price of gold and silver can stay down here at these levels with this type of massive demand for physical metal. This will eventually lead to a bottleneck in terms of supply, and that will happen quickly if prices continue to weaken like they did in 2008. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ned Naylor-Leyland Suggests Media Overhanging an Exposé of Rigging in the Silver Markets Posted: 25 Sep 2014 09:20 PM PDT from Jesse's Café Américain:
Choosing to ignore this would be a decision on my part as much as choosing to ask about it in as polite and as even handed manner one can manage. I became loosely aware of this yesterday, but decided to take no action here until something appeared ‘in print’ and in more than one place. William D. Cohan is a highly respected financial journalist who has recently published a book in April of this year titled The Price of Silence: the Duke Lacrosse Scandal, the Power of the Elite, and the Corruption of our Great Universities". He is certainly no stranger to controversy and to telling the truth against opposition. He is one of my favorite commentators in business journalism. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hathaway - Absolutely Stunning Developments In Gold Posted: 25 Sep 2014 09:02 PM PDT  Today a 42-year market veteran spoke with King World News about the absolutely stunning developments in the gold market. John Hathaway, who is one of the most respected institutional minds in the world today when it comes to gold, also discussed some of the record breaking events that are taking place in gold as well as the fuel that is now present for a major rally in the gold market as the cyclical bearish phase comes to an end.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This Chart Proves Stock Market Will COLLAPSE if Fed Stops QE3 Posted: 25 Sep 2014 09:00 PM PDT from The Money GPS: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| World’s almond supply approaching collapse due to California drought Posted: 25 Sep 2014 08:00 PM PDT by Ethan A. Huff, Natural News:
Though they are fairly drought-resistant, almonds are growing in popularity all over the world. They have exceeded peanuts here in the States as the consumer nut of choice, and developing nations like China are demanding them like never before. This has resulted in the conversion of more than one million acres of the Central Valley into almond orchards, more than twice the amount compared to 1996. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 25 Sep 2014 07:40 PM PDT by Michael Lombardi, MBA, Profit Confidential:
According to the India Bullion & Jewellers' Association, India's monthly gold bullion imports are expected to rise by as much as 50% in the coming few months—in the range of 70 tonnes to 75 tonnes per month compared to an average of 50 tonnes to 60 tonnes now. (Source: Reuters, September 18, 2014.) This is mainly due to the festival/wedding season fast approaching in India. If India continues to import 70 tonnes of gold bullion each month, then the total imports just to India will be 31% of all world gold mine production (based on 2,700 tons in annual mine production). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 U.S. Banks Each Have More Than 40 Trillion Dollars In Exposure To Derivatives Posted: 25 Sep 2014 06:11 PM PDT Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog, When is the U.S. banking system going to crash? I can sum it up in three words. Watch the derivatives. It used to be only four, but now there are five "too big to fail" banks in the United States that each have more than 40 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives. Today, the U.S. national debt is sitting at a grand total of about 17.7 trillion dollars, so when we are talking about 40 trillion dollars we are talking about an amount of money that is almost unimaginable. And unlike stocks and bonds, these derivatives do not represent "investments" in anything. They can be incredibly complex, but essentially they are just paper wagers about what will happen in the future. The truth is that derivatives trading is not too different from betting on baseball or football games. Trading in derivatives is basically just a form of legalized gambling, and the "too big to fail" banks have transformed Wall Street into the largest casino in the history of the planet. When this derivatives bubble bursts (and as surely as I am writing this it will), the pain that it will cause the global economy will be greater than words can describe. If derivatives trading is so risky, then why do our big banks do it? The answer to that question comes down to just one thing. Greed. The "too big to fail" banks run up enormous profits from their derivatives trading. According to the New York Times, U.S. banks "have nearly $280 trillion of derivatives on their books" even though the financial crisis of 2008 demonstrated how dangerous they could be...
The big banks have sophisticated computer models which are supposed to keep the system stable and help them manage these risks. But all computer models are based on assumptions. And all of those assumptions were originally made by flesh and blood people. When a "black swan event" comes along such as a war, a major pandemic, an apocalyptic natural disaster or a collapse of a very large financial institution, these models can often break down very rapidly. For example, the following is a brief excerpt from a Forbes article that describes what happened to the derivatives market when Lehman Brothers collapsed back in 2008...
After the last financial crisis, we were promised that this would be fixed. But instead the problem has become much larger. When the housing bubble burst back in 2007, the total notional value of derivatives contracts around the world had risen to about 500 trillion dollars. According to the Bank for International Settlements, today the total notional value of derivatives contracts around the world has ballooned to a staggering 710 trillion dollars ($710,000,000,000,000). And of course the heart of this derivatives bubble can be found on Wall Street. What I am about to share with you is very troubling information. I have shared similar numbers in the past, but for this article I went and got the very latest numbers from the OCC's most recent quarterly report. As I mentioned above, there are now five "too big to fail" banks that each have more than 40 trillion dollars in exposure to derivatives...
And it isn't just U.S. banks that are engaged in this type of behavior. As Zero Hedge recently detailed, German banking giant Deutsche Bank has more exposure to derivatives than any of the American banks listed above...
For those looking forward to the day when these mammoth banks will collapse, you need to keep in mind that when they do go down the entire system is going to utterly fall apart. At this point our economic system is so completely dependent on these banks that there is no way that it can function without them. It is like a patient with an extremely advanced case of cancer. Doctors can try to kill the cancer, but it is almost inevitable that the patient will die in the process. The same thing could be said about our relationship with the "too big to fail" banks. If they fail, so do the rest of us. We were told that something would be done about the "too big to fail" problem after the last crisis, but it never happened. In fact, as I have written about previously, the "too big to fail" banks have collectively gotten 37 percent larger since the last recession. At this point, the five largest banks in the country account for 42 percent of all loans in the United States, and the six largest banks control 67 percent of all banking assets. If those banks were to disappear tomorrow, we would not have much of an economy left. But as you have just read about in this article, they are being more reckless than ever before. We are steamrolling toward the greatest financial disaster in world history, and nobody is doing much of anything to stop it. Things could have turned out very differently, but now we will reap the consequences for the very foolish decisions that we have made. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Von Greyerz sees onset of a worldwide depression Posted: 25 Sep 2014 05:02 PM PDT 8p ET Thursday, September 25, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz, interviewed by King World News, notes increasing evidence of the onset of a worldwide depression: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/9/25_Gl... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy precious metals free of value-added tax throughout Europe Europe Silver Bullion is a fast-growing dealer sourcing its products from renowned mints, refiners, and distributors. Because of a legal loophole that will close soon, you can acquire the world's most popular bullion coins free of value-added tax throughout the European Union. You can collect your order in person at our headquarters in Tallinn, Estonia, or have it delivered in any of the 28 EU countries. Europe Silver Bullion is owned and operated by North American and European experts in selling, storing, and transporting precious metals. We have an extensive product inventory of silver, gold, platinum, and palladium, and our network spans the world. Visit us at www.europesilverbullion.com. Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| LBMA names Citigroup as gold and silver market maker Posted: 25 Sep 2014 04:47 PM PDT By Frank Tang NEW YORK -- The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) said on Thursday it appointed Citigroup as a market maker, underscoring the bank's ambitions to expand into the precious metals sector while others are exiting due to regulatory concerns. LBMA said it named Citibank, a unit of Citigroup, as a spot market-making member effective Thursday. Currently, LBMA has 12 market makers that serve in either one, two, or all three of the spot, forwards, and options markets. They make markets by quoting two-way prices in both gold and silver products to other market makers. ... ... For the remainder of the report: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/lbma-citigroup-idUSL2N0RQ2A820... ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Canadian Investor Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/event/31/canadian-investor-conference-toronto-... New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Gold Price Rose $2.60 Today on Comex and Ended at $1,221.20 Posted: 25 Sep 2014 04:43 PM PDT
The SILVER PRICE is egregiously oversold; RSI stands at 14.95. Yet silver also stands just above its 13 year uptrend line, which ought to catch and hold it. Silver tentatively has made a double bottom around $17.30. Watch that number. GOLD/SILVER RATIO today hit a new high at 70.269. This takes it back about to where the great drop began in 2010. This is either the very BEST place in the world to swap gold for silver, or the very worst. I am inclined strongly to think it is the best. What would make it the worst? For gold to stop and rally here while silver keeps on sinking. Highly unlikely. How might that occur? Another 2008 style financial panic. Other metals are beaten down as well. Palladium broke below its 200 DMA today after seven months above it, yet its not nearly as oversold as silver. Now platinum, it's as oversold as silver, but hasn't broken to a new low for the correction, as silver has. The GOLD PRICE has established a two-legged bottom Monday and Thursday, and it climbed back over $1,220 today -- on rising volume. RSI has climbed above 30 and out of overbought-land (now 32.67), MACD is straining to turn up, Rate of Change has turned up but remains negative. Meanwhile the whole galaxy plus a couple of planets in other galaxies are negative on silver and gold prices. Frankly, that's the best thing that could happen, because it would mean we have run out of sellers. Watch for a sharp upward reversal in silver. That will be your signal to buy. Speaking of the stock market, it dove off a cliff today. Dow lost 264.26 (1.54%) and ended at 16,945.80. S&P500 lost 32.31 (1.62%) and closed at 1,965.99. A few footnotes: Monday was the aftermath of the Alibaba IPO which became the world's largest -- sure sign of a top. The last four days have seen three digit moves in stocks, down, down, up, down. That extreme volatility characterizes topping markets. That turns the current trend unarguably down. (First a note about the RSI. Relative Strength indicator measures speed and change of price, and oscillates between zero and 100. However, it's overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.) Look inside. The Dow sliced through its 20 DMA (17,100.57) and fell nearly to its 50 DMA (16,936.47). RSI fell below 50 (momentum is downward). MACD turned down. Gravity is wholly engaged and operational. Inside the S&P500 looks even worse. It opened at the 20 DMA and plummeted through the 50 DMA (1976) and just kept on sinking. RSI reads 41.26, MACD dropping. The S&P500 is approaching the uptrend line that has held it up since mid 2013, and today it fell through its last low. Dow in gold zagged down again, losing 1.91% and closing at 13.87 oz (G$286.72 gold dollars). First tripwire confirming a downward reversal is the 20 DMA at 13.74 oz (G$284.03). RSI is plunging, down from 78.90 a few days ago to 57.08 today. MACD MA has turned down, and the rate of change has double peaked and turned down. Dow in silver hooked down, but only 0.25% to 971.77 oz (S$1,256.43 silver dollars). Remains grossly oversold with the RSI at 78.77, but won't stay there long with stocks dropping like a piano out of a third story window. The US dollar index is monstrously overbought (RSI at 77.25) but still rose 19 basis points (0.23%) to 85.35. Euro dropped to a new low for the move at $1.2746, down 0.26%. Yen is showing some sign of life, rose 0.29% to 91.98 today. MACD trying to turn up. Ten year treasury yield fell today, probably cutting off that embryonic desire to rally. Scared money flooding out of stocks into treasuries would have driven their price up and the yield down. Looks set to drop further. Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 25 Sep 2014 03:00 PM PDT Via Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann, In a switch from what are typically only one-sidedly dovish comments, NY Fed President Dudley was balanced this week, even citing reasons for why the Fed would want to hike rates. Dudley stated that "being at the zero-lower-bound is not a very comfortable place to be", because it "limits" flexibility and has "consequences for the economy". He said it "hurts savers", and while acknowledging "what is happening" to financial markets, he avoided directly citing risks to financial stability. Anxiety-riddled conversations about financial instability are probably implicitly restricted to a 'behind-closed-doors-only' rule. FOMC members are slowly and carefully trying to change the conversation. Yellen completely diluted away any meaning behind "considerable period" to make it all but meaningless. Bullard said to that he still "sees the first tightening at the end of the first quarter". A March 18th hike seems reasonable to me, since US economic improvement appears to remain on track (at least for the moment) and since the FOMC seems more anxious to begin the normalization process. Actually though, by waiting even until March, it is possible that the FOMC risks missing its window of opportunity in terms of using US economic momentum as its cover (what irony). Financial markets are becoming agitated and disturbed by shifting government and central bank policies, mounting geo-political tensions, and rising nationalist fervor. QE has not yet ended and the Fed is likely still months away from hiking for the first time, but markets are using these factors to adjust portfolio exposures. These are hints that a larger market reaction is likely to unfold as the Fed's policy transition approaches. Macro signs are currently evident with steep commodity price declines, rising FX volatility, rallying global bond markets (long end), and sagging prices for low quality credits. Some investors are clearly getting out of the Fed-generated "herd" trades of recent years and saying that they are doing so because "the Fed's balance sheet is set to stop expanding next month". The strengthening dollar is one consequence and it has already had an impact on commodities and Emerging Markets. In turn, weakening currencies in EM countries are starting to trigger capital outflows. It may lead toward domestic central bank hikes (again) which weaken those economies and cause second-order effects.
The prolonged period of zero rates has enabled many EM-based corporations to issue debt in USD, so a weakening currency raises their liabilities and lowers the value of their assets. Such a dynamic was a source of past crises. Any anti-globalization actions, such as protectionism, will further act as global economic headwinds. Nationalistic momentum could become disruptive via social unrest or via surprises in the voting booth. Extreme nationalist parties continue to gain in popularity in numerous European countries. Religious, ethnic and tribal conflicts are spilling across borders. Putin's annexation of Crimea was a bold nationalistic action that hid behind a veil of protecting Russian speakers. China, Japan and India all have new nationalistic leaders who use patriotic jargon to spur structural and economic reform. For investors, Fed stimulus has trumped all other factors. It has lowered risk premia and inflated asset prices. The gig is soon up, but investors have yet to adequately adjust. Unfortunately, they will attempt to do so with significantly compromised market liquidity. The path to normalization is made even more challenging, because Japan and Europe are in recession, and China is slowing. Note: Pentagon comments this week about foiling an "imminent attack" was negative for risk assets as were Treasury Department efforts to clampdown on "inversion". I maintain that one of the best places to hide remains in 30-year Treasury bonds.
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| Research Shows Positive Correlation Between Economic growth And Gold Demand Posted: 25 Sep 2014 02:50 PM PDT This seventh edition of “Gold Investor” is out. The report, released by World Gold Councile, discusses gold's positive link to economic growth, explore its value as a hedge in times of duress, and discuss the impact that ETFs have had on the gold market. The report includes three articles:
Below are some excerpts. Readers who want access to the full report should register here before downloading the report. Executive summary: Current data on the world's economies is mixed. There is both positive and negative news about developed and emerging markets but many investors – particularly in the US – are optimistic about a return to growth. Conventional wisdom says this will be bad news for gold. We believe the true picture is more complex. Gold benefits from both the growth and contraction phases of the business cycle, and our analysis, based on new third-party research, highlights the positive link between economic growth and consumer demand for gold. The positive impact of economic growth on gold demand: The positive impact of economic growth on gold demand Conventional wisdom holds that good economic times are bad for gold. This is based on the fact that investment demand for gold tends to soften during times of growth. Over the short (and sometimes medium) term, gold investment can exert strong pressure on prices – whether via the physical (and physically backed) markets, through derivatives in exchanges, or over-the-counter products. But over the longer term, economic growth tends to be good for gold. For example, India and China's combined share of world gold demand grew from 25% in the early 1990s to more than 50% by 2013. Consumers and investors in China bought more than 1,200 tonnes of gold in 2013 – 20% more gold than the current combined gold holdings of all US-listed gold-backed ETFs. In both India and China gold demand is closely correlated to increasing wealth. Outlook: the practical impact of consumer demand on gold: The price of gold can be explained as a long-term (and slow-moving) trend that deviates due to short- or medium-term market developments. Over the short (and potentially medium) term, gold investment – whether via the physical (and physically backed) markets or through derivatives in exchanges or other-the-counter (OTC) – can exert strong pressure on prices. This type of demand grows with uncertainty and falls as investor confidence grows. However, the longer-term trend is more closely linked to global consumption, savings and, at the same time, by the availability of supply (or lack thereof). Our analysis suggests there is a clear, positive relationship between economic growth and consumer demand for gold through rising incomes. So it seems reasonable to suggest that positive GDP growth will not necessarily be negative for the gold market. Not only consumption and gold savings demand make up the largest share of demand worldwide, but they even represent an important market in developed countries such as US – where 50% of gold demand is linked to consumers. Outlook: the practical impact of consumer demand on gold The price of gold can be explained as a long-term (and slow-moving) trend that deviates due to short- or medium-term market developments. Over the short (and potentially medium) term, gold investment – whether via the physical (and physically backed) markets or through derivatives in exchanges or other-the-counter (OTC) – can exert strong pressure on prices. This type of demand grows with uncertainty and falls as investor confidence grows. However, the longer-term trend is more closely linked to global consumption, savings and, at the same time, by the availability of supply (or lack thereof). Our analysis suggests there is a clear, positive relationship between economic growth and consumer demand for gold through rising incomes. So it seems reasonable to suggest that positive GDP growth will not necessarily be negative for the gold market. Not only consumption and gold savings demand make up the largest share of demand worldwide, but they even represent an important market in developed countries such as US – where 50% of gold demand is linked to consumers (see Chart 1). A practical hedge: less exotic, multipurpose, lower cost: The 2008-2009 financial crisis spawned the tail-risk hedge, an instrument that aims to protect investors from the worst of sudden, hard-to-predict market crashes. These hedges can be rather like exotic sports cars: impressive performers, but expensive to own and too technically complex for most. Our research shows that gold may not perform like a high- octane tailored hedge but can be a practical alternative. It is straightforward, delivers acceptable performance and is less costly to own. Ten years of gold ETFs: a wider and more efficient market: Ten years ago it would have been difficult to predict that a new investment product, a variant of a mutual fund, would change the gold investment landscape. Odder still to suggest that this new type of vehicle might one day accumulate more gold holdings than many central banks. Yet the gold-backed ETF has done both these things and more. We examined the ten-year history and growth catalysts of gold ETFs and asked whether they have delivered value for investors and for the wider gold market. We have also analysed the impact, if any, gold ETFs have had on gold price volatility Gold as a hedge: Excluding the high costs of most hedges, gold has not – at least over recent and very short windows – been a particularly effective tail risk hedge. Our previous research has shown that in the longer term and over longer windows, gold's attributes are far more certain. But the return profile of gold is compelling. The asymmetric correlation means it straddles the ground between a dedicated tail risk hedge and a risk asset. It contributes to portfolio performance during normal environments but still displays the properties of a tail-risk hedge. This suggests that some combination of hedges – following the old adage of not putting all of one's eggs in one – should perform better than any single hedge. Gold's unique profile further suggests that it should typically form a part of this combination.
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| Mr. Cohan Responds On His Silver Rigging Exposé - Two US National Publications Refused the Story Posted: 25 Sep 2014 02:45 PM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver Prices: Your opinion is cordially requested Posted: 25 Sep 2014 02:27 PM PDT The question is where to from here?
Silver prices are falling apart as the chart shows; | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Insights From The 10 Year Gold, Silver And Dollar Chart Posted: 25 Sep 2014 01:49 PM PDT Jim Sinclair says to buy "fish lines" and sell "rhino horns." Stated another way – buy value when the price has plunged and sell when prices have gone parabolic. In today's world that means:
Note the following weekly charts:
Comments
In the above daily chart of silver, note the recent smash-down in silver prices and its deeply over-sold daily status. Current DAILY silver TDI (10,5) reading is the most over-sold since the post 1980 crash. What is next?
Conclusion
Additional Reading:
Gary Christenson | The Deviant Investor | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Curiouser and Curiouser Posted: 25 Sep 2014 01:42 PM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Global Market Collapse & Wealth Destruction Is Now Upon Us Posted: 25 Sep 2014 01:00 PM PDT  Today a 42-year market veteran warned King World News that a global market collapse and massive wealth destruction is now upon us. He also discussed the gold market. Below is what Egon von Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, had to say in this extraordinary interview.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| It’s The U.S. Dollar, Stupid! Posted: 25 Sep 2014 12:53 PM PDT There are substantial and profound changes developing in the global economy, and in my view we should all pay attention, because everyone will be greatly affected. Some more than others, but still. ‘Metal markets’, be they gold, silver, copper or iron, exhibit distress and uncertainty, prices are falling, or at least seem to be. Partly, that is because of the apparently still ongoing investigation in the Chinese port of Qingdao, through which a $10 billion ‘currency fraud’ is reported today, ostensibly related to the double/triple borrowing that has been exposed, in which the same iron ore and copper shipments were used as collateral multiple times. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Ethics of “Making the Empire Pay” Posted: 25 Sep 2014 12:00 PM PDT "When did you people turn into shills for the military-industrial complex," asked one of our subscribers in an email to us. [Ahem.] "My security would be greatly enhanced if every damn one of 'em would go home forever and the entire machine would grind to a halt, so don’t try to pump this bilge my way." We hear you. And we agree. We're not much on socially responsible investing… even when we judge a certain investment vehicle to be thoroughly irresponsible, if not downright reprehensible. "The insidious increase in power," says retired army Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, "and the influence over foreign policy that the military has is very dangerous. And maybe in the long run, it's even more dangerous than a coup." Wilkerson was Colin Powell's right-hand man in the military under the first President Bush… and again in the State Department under the second. It was Wilkerson who vetted the intelligence that went into Powell's now-infamous speech at the United Nations 10 years ago during the run-up to the Iraq War. He admits he fell down on the job. The "mobile bioweapons labs" were the fantasy of an Iraqi defector, egged on by the Pentagon. In retirement, Wilkerson has turned into a trenchant critic of the military-industrial complex Eisenhower warned about 52 years ago. As such, he is also the harbinger of the military's slow-motion coup. "What happens," Wilkerson explained to radio host Rob Kall in November of 2012, "is the power shifts gradually, and gradually, and incrementally over to the war-making side, to where you wake up one morning and all you're doing is making war. And you have so many people — from Lockheed Martin, to the Congress of the United States, to the armed forces, to you name it — who are making so much money off that war-making that you can't stop it. That's not a coup, but it is something worse, in my view. It is, ultimately, the destruction of our Republic." So why, you might ask, would we suggest investing in defense or cybersecurity stocks or — to use a phrase made popular when Americans were having second thoughts about World War I — the "merchants of death"? Simply put, because there are pitfalls of "socially responsible investing." We're not much on socially responsible investing… even when we judge a certain investment vehicle to be thoroughly irresponsible, if not downright reprehensible. "Maximizing profits and conforming to social policies are separate endeavors," wrote the late Harry Browne in 1995. "You can cater to one endeavor only at the expense of the other." Name almost any investment, and we can come up with a valid objection to it… and not on hippy-dippy "save the Earth" or "fair trade" grounds, either: If you own a gold stock, there's a good chance the company is stomping all over the property rights of someone whose land happens to sit on top of a gold deposit. Third-world governments routinely cut sweetheart deals with mining firms to seize land held in the same family for generations, with zip for compensation. Or if you own any kind of government bond, your stream of income depends on the ability of that government to extract tax payments from the citizens in its jurisdiction. Meanwhile, if you shun the stocks of the major banks because they accept government bailouts, you've passed up monster rallies going back to late 2011 — 59% on J.P. Morgan Chase, 79% on Citigroup and 130% on Bank of America. Just sayin'. Run down all 10 sectors of the S&P 500 and we'll find something objectionable. Health care? The government has totally co-opted the insurance industry and Big Pharma… or maybe vice versa. Telecom? All the big companies collude with the National Security Agency's warrantless wiretapping. Consumer staples? Hope you don't mind General Mills and Kellogg sucking up the corn subsidies for breakfast cereal (and adding to kids' waistlines, which you'll pay for years from now when they develop diabetes and go on Medicaid). OK, you get the idea. Back to Col. Wilkerson's interview. It reinforces our own thoughts about the empire having a logic of its own. The military's silent coup "is something that just happens, and it directs American policy toward war in an increased and ever-dangerous manner, and we wind up one day with no money left, no economy, and the only thing we're good at (and that's going away fast, because you need money in an economy to support a military) is the military." We're no happier about it than you or Col. Wilkerson. But if government is going to direct more and more of the economy going forward, it only makes sense to "follow the money" and channel your own investment flows into those areas that will benefit most. "The stock exchange isn't a pulpit," wrote Harry Browne. "If you want to promote a particular environmental policy, political philosophy or other personal enthusiasm, do it with the profits you make from hardheaded investing." Amen. Regards, Addison Wiggin P.S. As we’ve said before, our beat at The Daily Reckoning is money. Whether the markets hit new highs or gold rallies above $2,000 or the dollar falls to zero… we’ll be there to reckon with it. And we’ll have a way for our readers to protect their own assets in the process. That’s why we publish The Daily Reckoning email, every day. To ensure that you know what to do with your money regardless of what comes next. We offer readers no less than 3 chances to learn about specific, actionable profit opportunities every day. So if you’re not getting the email, you’re missing the full story — and all the potential profits that come with it. Sign up for The Daily Reckoning, for FREE, right here. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Huge demand for discounted gold and silver told at King World News Posted: 25 Sep 2014 11:13 AM PDT 2:10p ET Thursday, September 25, 2014 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Another report of huge demand for seemingly discounted gold and silver has come out today, this time from Bill Haynes of CMI Gold & Silver in Phoenix through an interview with King World News excerpted here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/9/25_St... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Canadian Investor Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/event/31/canadian-investor-conference-toronto-... New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 25 Sep 2014 11:00 AM PDT Slavery is coming back. In the future, we'll all have personal servants. They'll clean our homes, tend to our gardens, harvest our food, manufacture our goods and fight our battles. The slaves won't be human, fortunately, but they will be machines. Every new advance in machine intelligence and electronic sensing, along with other diverse and converging fields of technology, is hastening the adoption of these machine servants. Robots. Robots are a big, high-growth field investors need to pay attention to. Bill Gates has predicted that by 2025, robots will be as common as computers are today. If he's even half right, investors who get in on promising robotics techs today will be fantastically compensated for their vision. Getting in on the next wave of robotics now will be like getting in on Intel, AMD, Apple or Gates' own Microsoft in the 1980s. Surgical robots… can make surgery less invasive and more precise, improving recovery times and reducing pain and blood loss. Even your next anesthesiologist could be a robot. Incidentally, the word "robot" comes from a 1920s Czech science fiction play. The Czech word for servitude, robota, entered the English language as "robot" and has been with us ever since as a description for autonomous or semi-autonomous machines. The name for this field of technology, robotics, also is the product of science fiction — Isaac Asimov first coined the term for a short story in the 1940s. Although the words date from the 20th century, the idea of self-operating machines is far older. Ancient myths first described artificial and lifelike machines in motion in legendary tales. Later, in the quest to measure time, intricate clockworks — run by weights or springs and self-regulating with mechanisms like pendulums and escapements for accuracy — were developed. By the early 20th century, electrical controls allowed self-regulating machinery to come into industrial use. After WWII, of course, the invention of modern electronics, based on semiconductors and integrated circuits, meant that industrial automation could become truly "robotic." Microprocessors and sensors allowed the creation of industrial robots and computer numeric-controlled machinery. By the 1970s, the first microcomputer-controlled robots began to enter factories. Today, the international automotive industry depends entirely on robots, as do several other manufacturing fields. Chip manufacturing, biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies rely on robotics to perform precise and repetitive functions in environments intolerable to humans. Industrial robots can be hard to recognize, although the International Organization for Standardization has a working definition: "an automatically controlled, reprogrammable, multipurpose manipulator programmable in three or more axes." Using these terms, even a modern car might be considered robotic, since some of its internal components meet this definition. Whatever appearance modern robots take, they form a swiftly growing market. By one estimate by transparency market research, for example, the industrial controls and robotics market was worth $102 billion in 2012, and will grow to $147 billion in 2019. Growth has been strong for years, after a brief pause during the last recession. Advanced robotics will help solve some of our most vexing problems. In our day and age, the health care industry has proven highly resistant to price declines partly because of labor costs. Improved robotic automation is one way to increase productivity and reduce labor costs. And robots can be used to not only do things cheaper, but better. Surgical robots, for example, can make surgery less invasive and more precise, improving recovery times and reducing pain and blood loss. Even your next anesthesiologist could be a robot. Johnson & Johnson has developed a "sedation machine" that could replace an anesthesiologist during a colonoscopy. A RAND Corp. study finds that more than $1 billion is spent each year sedating patients during the procedure. Johnson & Johnson believes its automated device can reduce the anesthesiology portion of the bill from over $600 down to $150. Robot adoption is also being aided by a simple economic fact: While cost of production for goods has generally declined over time because of automation, prices for services generally don't fall quite as much, because they aren't as easily automated. Consider that for the performance you receive, your computer costs a fraction of what it did two decades ago, but the technician who repairs it has generally remained quite expensive to hire by comparison. Automation has solved problems for us in the past. Food prices have fallen steeply in real terms over the last century. This is not only due to better agricultural techniques, but also because of increased automation. From John Deere and Allis-Chalmers, from balers to combines, mechanized agricultural equipment has drastically reduced what we have to pay to for our food. Now we don't generally worry about going hungry in countries with advanced economies. We worry about consuming too many calories. Automation made this possible. We may even begin to see fully robotic agricultural operations. A convergence of recent technologies, including GPS, wireless communication and electronic sensors, is heralding a second agricultural revolution. Self-driving tractors, for example, are making their debut, able to automatically follow combines and receive the payload of grains. Another robotic appurtenance, dubbed the Lely Astronaut A4, can milk cows without any need for a human being to be part of the process. The robot even analyzes the milk as it works to monitor for possible bovine health problems. Within 10 years… personal robots will have the ability to do everything from cleaning toilets… to keeping your schedule and monitoring your vital signs. Robots also bring new capabilities in other areas. They are already being used for dangerous jobs that humans would rather not do. The U.S. military, for example, is deploying robots in the field and in the air. Some of the earliest recognizable robots were remote-controlled bomb detonation units. Today, unmanned aerial vehicles can pilot themselves in hazardous situations. Some are sophisticated mobile weapons systems. Many are utility vehicles ranging from self-driving trucks to relatively small "PackBots" that climb stairs, risk tripwires, find land mines and look around corners. Some are armed and can be fired remotely or return fire automatically. Though the public may not think of them as robots, automated missile systems have been around for decades. One experimental robot, called ATLAS, may be the most advanced humanoid robot ever made. ATLAS' hydraulically articulated joints enjoy 28 degrees of freedom, and its nimble hands can use human tools. The robot's sensor suite includes LIDAR, a laser sensor mounted on its head that allows it to measure distances. The military is developing this technology so that in the future, we'll be better able to deal with disasters like the meltdown at Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant. Robots can survive in radioactive environments that would quickly kill humans. Ultimately, the consumer robot market will outgrow military applications as it enters an explosive growth phase. According to ABI Research, this market racked up $1.6 billion in sales in 2012 and will shoot through $6 billion in 2017. Like industrial robots, consumer 'bots will become so ubiquitous that they won't always conform to what we may think of as a robot. As you know, some will look like automobiles. Electric automobile pioneer Tesla Motors expects to be able to build a self-driving car in three years that will be able to perform 90% of the driving. Nissan hopes to field its own autonomous automobiles by 2020. Google is also working hard on this technology. Robots will enter the home too. iRobot's Roomba vacuum has been a sales success, but it represents only the beginning. Within 10 years, some roboticists say, personal robots will have the ability to do everything from cleaning toilets and washing dishes to keeping your schedule and monitoring your vital signs. That may actually be a pessimistic projection. With the leading edge of the boomer generation entering retirement, there will be huge financial incentives for improved service 'bots. There will be great demand for anyone who can build an affordable robot that can help with housekeeping and basic care. Families that want to keep older members out of assisted care facilities and closer to home will look to robots for help. In light of this, the famous Japanese enthusiasm for new robot technology is understandable, since more than a fifth of its population is over 65 years old, and the Japanese government is heavily funding robotics projects to provide care and plug holes in the workforce. There are simply not enough young people to take care of an aged Japanese population. The same trend should happen in the U.S. with the baby boomer generation, who are aging in unprecedented numbers. One thing is certain: the robotic revolution isn't going anywhere. It's only getting started. Ad lucrum per scientia (toward wealth through science), Ray Blanco Ed. Note: There's never been a better time to pay attention to this space. And long-time readers of the Tomorrow in Review free e-letter know have been given a front-row seat to the action – and all the potential profits that come with it. If you didn’t get today’s email, you likely missed out. But there’s still time to sign up and get tomorrow’s issue, which will be filled with more of the same excellent opportunities. Don’t wait. Sign up for FREE, right here. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ned Naylor-Leyland Suggests Media Overhanging an Exposé of Rigging in the Silver Markets Posted: 25 Sep 2014 10:33 AM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Currency Wars Deepen - Russia, Kazakhstan Buy Very Large 30 Tons Of Gold In August Posted: 25 Sep 2014 09:31 AM PDT Russia and ex Soviet States Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic and Azerbaijan continued to accumulate significant gold reserves in August in a trend that we highlighted last month. See 'How to Buy Gold and When to Sell' Webinar Here | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| “Stunning Demand” One Individual Buying $40 Million Of Gold Posted: 25 Sep 2014 09:13 AM PDT  Today the man who owns one of the largest gold and silver dealers in the United States told King World News that there is massive and stunning buying of physical gold and silver now taking place at these levels. One individual has contacted him about purchasing $40 million worth of gold, which is equivalent to one ton of physical gold. Below is what 41-year market veteran Bill Haynes had to say about the massive physical gold and silver buying. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 25 Sep 2014 07:32 AM PDT Jim, Many of your readers believe the price of gold is going down because of heavy selling pressure. I believe that is NOT the case at all. It's all about the Dollar. Even if no gold changed hands it would still be revalued if the dollar strengthens or weakens. Without any trading in gold, if... Read more » The post Jim’s Mailbox appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Bullion Spikes as Stocks Tumble After Mixed US Data, Analysts Cut Price Forecasts Posted: 25 Sep 2014 07:17 AM PDT GOLD BULLION prices spiked back to unchanged for the week so far Thursday afternoon in London, as US stockmarkets sank and the Dollar whipped on the currency market following mixed US economic data. Orders for US-made durable goods fell 19% last month, the fastest pace on record, as the end of new aircraft orders reversed July's 22% jump. Claims for jobless benefits, however, came in below analyst forecasts for last week. So too did the Markit PMI index of service-sector activity for September. But completing the third quarter's average level, it still showed record growth for the survey's 5-year series. Gold bullion jumped to touch $1216 per ounce – up 0.8% from an earlier dip to new 2014 lows at $1207 – as the Dollar fell hard against Sterling and the Yen, but held onto overnight gains versus the Euro. Silver prices failed to follow gold higher, dropping after the US data within 2c of Monday's new 4-year low at $17.36. Wall Street's Nasdaq index dropped 1% at the open, and European stocks extended their earlier drop. "Should US equity markets and the Dollar resume their climb," reckons one US brokerage in a note, "we likely will see the selling in gold intensify again. "Moreover, charts continue to look negative across the board." Speaking to Bloomberg News yesterday, "Risks are significantly skewed to the downside," says analyst Jeffrey Currie at US investment bank Goldman Sachs, who urged clients to sell gold just before spring 2013's gold crash began. "Much of the [recent] support was coming from political uncertainty in Ukraine and what was going on in Middle East," says Currie – but that "risk-related source of support has been diminished," agrees a note from US banking conglomerate Citigroup. Gold prices will end 2014 near five-year lows of $1050 reckons Currie, maintaining his previous forecast. Citigroup this week joined Swiss bank UBS and French bank Societe Generale in cutting its forecast gold price. Australia's Macquarie Bank, in contrast, yesterday revised its full-year 2014 average price slightly higher to $1278 per ounce. The London PM Gold Fix – named today as one of 7 "benchmarks" likely to get strict government oversight and criminal charges for attempted manipulation – has so far averaged $1289 year-to-date. "Today sees the start of Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year," notes brokerage Marex Spectron's London head, David Govett, "and traditionally this means the markets slow down a bit." Next week brings China's three-session shutdown for the National Day vacation, typically a strong period for consumer gold demand. But major importers UBS "are receiving mixed feedback from traders" according to Swiss refining group MKS, pointing to "favourable arbitrage conditions recently" where strong premiums in Shanghai – over and above global prices – saw inflows rise to "create oversupply onshore." Premiums on Shanghai's most-active domestic gold bullion contract today held at $3.80 per ounce above London prices on turnover equal to $1.6 billion. Shanghai premiums on the city's international free-trade zone kilobar contract – launched last week – rose to $5 per ounce above world bullion prices as trading volume more than tripled to $39 million. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Strong U.S. Dollar Pressures Gold Posted: 25 Sep 2014 07:05 AM PDT Gold stayed under pressure this month. And the third quarter is shaping up to be a negative one. So what's going on? This past month, we've seen the U.S. economy improve, which has kept investors running to the stock market. It's also fueling beliefs that higher U.S. interest rates are coming sooner than expected. This has been pushing up the U.S. dollar. And with Europe also needing to continue their stimulus and keep interest rates low, it's adding even more fuel to the stronger dollar. That in turn is keeping downward pressure on gold. And it's causing a decline in the demand for gold. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold price seen near tipping point for mine cuts and closures Posted: 25 Sep 2014 05:51 AM PDT But having no idea of the monetary nature of their product and how it is priced by central bank market rigging, mining company executives can do no more than wring their hands and screw their stockholders. * * * By Nicole Mordant VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- The price of gold, down more than a third in three years, is approaching the tipping point where the mining industry would see a spike in the number of producers reducing output or even shutting down operations. Several mines globally have already suspended output in the past 18 months, but not as many as industry watchers expected as producers focused on slashing costs and reworking mine plans to extract more profitable, higher-grade ounces. But with bullion's slide this week to a nine-month low of $1,208.36 an ounce, those defenses may not be enough. ... ... For the remainder of the report: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/us-gold-mining-outlook-analysi... ADVERTISEMENT Free Storage with BullionStar in Singapore Until 2016 BullionStar is a Singapore-registered company with a one-stop bullion shop, showroom, and vault at 45 New Bridge Road in Singapore. BullionStar's solution for storing bullion in Singapore is called My Vault Storage. With My Vault Storage you can store bullion in BullionStar's bullion vault, which is integrated with BullionStar's shop and showroom, making it a convenient one-stop-shop for precious metals in Singapore. Customers can buy, store, sell, or request physical withdrawal of their bullion through My Vault Storage® online around the clock. Storage is FREE until 2016 and will have the most competitive rates in the industry thereafter. For more information, please visit Bullion Star here: Join GATA here: Canadian Investor Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/event/31/canadian-investor-conference-toronto-... New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Weak gold price has Dubai consumers clamoring for more Posted: 25 Sep 2014 05:40 AM PDT By Manoj Nair http://gulfnews.com/business/retail/weak-gold-prices-has-dubai-consumers... With local gold prices dipping below the 140 dirhams a gram (for 22-karat) level for the first time this year, it was enough to unleash a manic round of buying at jewellery stores in the United Arab Emirates and the Gulf over the weekend. If the current levels -- of around Dh140 -- can sustain itself, it could lead to a surge in buying ahead of the key festivals of Eid and Diwali next month, industry sources say. Industry feedback suggests that on Friday itself nearly 1.5 tonnes of gold could have been bought at retail level transactions across the Gulf, with the UAE accounting for nearly half of that. On Monday, with the price at Dh139.25 a gram, the level of consumer interest was sustained. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Buy precious metals free of value-added tax throughout Europe Europe Silver Bullion is a fast-growing dealer sourcing its products from renowned mints, refiners, and distributors. Because of a legal loophole that will close soon, you can acquire the world's most popular bullion coins free of value-added tax throughout the European Union. You can collect your order in person at our headquarters in Tallinn, Estonia, or have it delivered in any of the 28 EU countries. Europe Silver Bullion is owned and operated by North American and European experts in selling, storing, and transporting precious metals. We have an extensive product inventory of silver, gold, platinum, and palladium, and our network spans the world. Visit us at www.europesilverbullion.com. "The month with Diwali" -- the Indian festival when buying jewellery is rated as auspicious -- "represents a peak buying period for the trade in the Gulf, and this year it's doubly so with Eid also falling in the same month," said Shamlal Ahmad, director of International Operations at Malabar Gold & Diamonds. "Shoppers are clearly bringing forward their purchases to make use of the soft prices." The weakness has much to do with the relative strength of the dollar during the runup to the Scottish referendum. At one point investors were getting spooked that the vote would be a close-run thing and were parking their funds in the safe haven of the dollar. The Ukraine conflict also had a hand in the greenback's strength, and another great boost was provided by the U.S. Federal Reserve confirming that the low interest rate regime was coming to an end. According to Chandu Siroya of the Dubai Gold & Jewellery Group, "I won't say the buying patterns over the last four days were intense, but there is a definite spur to demand. If the Dh140 level holds, and I don't see why it shouldn't, it would be enough to keep shoppers interested." Some within the industry believe that a combination of a lower price and the ongoing physical scarcity of the metal in India could translate into some sort of increased demand in the local market. These could then be sold in India at a premium. (Based on the official rates, gold prices in India are higher by Dh16-Dh17 per gram compared with Dubai's.) According to Cyriac Varghese of Sky Jewellery, "Having dipped below Dh140 this week, the obvious question is whether there is enough pressure building up to pull it lower." It was in the second quarter of last year that global gold prices started showing weakness after an extended run of gains. At that time the price dipped below $1,200 an ounce, and a quite substantial gap from the near $1,900 an ounce commanded in 2011. Join GATA here: Canadian Investor Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/event/31/canadian-investor-conference-toronto-... New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 25 Sep 2014 05:35 AM PDT MUST READS Big price swings return to Dow – USA Today The Dollar Rally May Have a Long Way to Run – Barron’s The Dollar Short, What and Where Now? – Alhambra Partners US Dollar Breaks Through Overhead Resistance; Euro Sinks – Trader Dan Forget The “Alibaba Top” – This Is The Chart Everyone Is Watching – Zero Hedge Islamic State [...] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UK moves to extend Libor rigging laws to oil, gold, and currency markets Posted: 25 Sep 2014 05:26 AM PDT By Szu Ping Chan and News Agencies New powers to punish Libor rigging with criminal sanctions should be extended to seven other major benchmarks, including oil, gold, and currency markets, the government has said. The Treasury launched a formal consultation today to extend the new legislation to cover the foreign exchange, fixed income and commodity markets. Under the proposals, the legislation would cover the London Gold Fixing and the LMBA Silver Price, which determine the price of the precious metals in the London market. Also targeted is the ICE Brent futures contract, "which acts as the crude oil futures market's principal financial benchmark," the Treasury said. ... ... For the remainder of the report: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/11120721... ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Canadian Investor Conference http://cambridgehouse.com/event/31/canadian-investor-conference-toronto-... New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/noic2014?IDPromotion=614011014520... Mines and Money London http://www.minesandmoney.com/london/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Venture Capital Bubble and the Apple Watch Posted: 24 Sep 2014 11:17 PM PDT As investors, we tend to focus myopically on numbers, but you can learn an awful lot about the direction of the markets from the simplest casual conversations… like the one I had with a friend who just recently got back from Silicon Valley. Skyping me from the airplane WiFi, he wrote: “The Valley is soooo drunk right now, it’s insane… the bubble is tangible.” It’s not the first or last time I’ve heard that sentiment in the last few months. It’s what sent me down the path of writing a series on the technology bubble. Just how drunk is the Valley right now? VC investment for 2014 is up 52% over last year thus far—a multibillion-dollar jump. I dig into the numbers below to see just how bad it might be and whether investors need to brace for a blowback. Another such conversation was with my father about the Apple Watch. While he was out on the town in the days after the announcement, numerous people commented to him that Apple had “done it again” and that its stock was “sure to double” as it’s “way cheaper than a few years ago.” The collection of retired boilermakers, dirt salesmen (not a disparaging remark—one guy really sells specialty dirt to golf courses), funeral home and cemetery owners, and similar nonfinancial professionals he keeps as company is telling. Ultimately, they have more power to drive the market than anyone else. I argued valuation with him for a while, but it doesn’t really matter much in the short run. If enough people share a sentiment, right or wrong, the market will follow. However, eventually reality catches up with exuberance. When it does, will the Apple Watch be enough to keep Apple’s stock aloft? BIG TECH’s lead analyst Adam Crawford explores that below. Regards, Vainglorious Venture Capitalists! Tech Bubble 2.0 Series, Part 4Alex Daley, Chief Technology Investment Strategist For several months, the investment community has been abuzz over the possibility of a tech bubble, with nearly everyone from the financial world weighing in. The very fact that there’s so much chatter about a bubble probably indicates that one doesn’t exist. Nonetheless, I decided to look deeper into the matter. On August 28, I began examining the evidence in a series of articles titled “Tech Bubble 2.0”? In Part 1, we looked at the Nasdaq’s normalized price/earnings ratio over the last 20 years. Our conclusion: the Nasdaq is due for a correction, but is nowhere near the highs of the dot-com bubble. In Part 2, we looked at mergers and in Part 3, IPOs—both areas where irrational exuberance would indicate that a bubble is forming. In both areas, we concluded that there are definite signs of excess, but we are not approaching bubble levels… yet. In today’s fourth and final installment, we’ll take a look at what the venture capitalists are up to and decide whether they’re signaling that a bubble is upon us. The Unique Barometer of Venture CapitalistsVenture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) are terms that are often used interchangeably. And though in practice they often overlap and are hard to distinguish, in theory they connote two very different kinds of business funding. Private equity investors typically buy existing companies with established products, distribution, and revenues that are under- or mismanaged, then seek to optimize profitability through operational improvements and/or restructuring. Venture capitalists, on the other hand, are the intrepid souls who fund startup or early-stage companies that may have little to no revenue but have extremely high growth potential. Since more growth potential exists in technology than any other field, that’s the sector where most VC activity takes place. VCs make their money by funding startup and early-stage companies until a “liquidity event” can be arranged, such as an IPO or sale to an established company that sees a strategic advantage to making the purchase. Awash with cash from a few big wins and high demand from investors seeking to jump on the bandwagon, funding and liquidity events tend to reach a fever pitch when a bubble is imminent. Unlike private equity funds that often have strict criteria for what multiples of revenue, EBITDA, and enterprise value they will purchase companies at (which limit their likelihood of overpaying), VCs get to be more creative by definition. Since most VC funding happens based on a vision of what a company might be able to accomplish, they can be much more creative about how they value a company and take on a lot more risk. When the cash is flowing into funds, the temptation to keep it there often has them throwing more and more money at fewer and lesser-quality deals, all to avoid giving it back to partners and losing out on fees or looking like they don’t know what they’re doing amidst a market where everyone else is doubling down. Of all investment markets, without the healthy forces of short selling, volume declines, and negative analyst coverage to push back against their ideas of grandeur, VCs are most susceptible to the groupthink that drives any bubble and thus tend to blaze the trail going in. That’s what happened in 2000; is it happening again? Overstating the CaseWe hear a lot of anecdotal evidence that a VC bubble is indeed imminent, most of which revolves around seemingly irrational valuations. “A $10 billion valuation on AirBnB… ridiculous. Or Uber’s $18 billion… preposterous.” Okay, I won’t even try to justify those, even though AirBnB holds more inventory than most of the world’s hotel chains, and Uber is quickly becoming the eBay of transportation, generating $20 million per week in revenue by the end of last year and doubling every six months… and all this before the company even raised the cash to truly start marketing. None of that matters because: No one valued AirBnB at $10 billion, or Uber at $18 billion. The companies are twisting the truth for air play, and the media are parroting it back in exactly the way they’d hoped. Bingo!: free marketing. With VC deals, you see, the terms are far more complex than just a chunk of money for a percent of the company; and as a result, the implied valuation is almost always meaningless. These deals invariably contain options, warrants, and most germane to valuation, liquidity preferences. Those spell out terms that put the VC’s preferred stock ahead of other investors when the stock is sold to an acquirer or the public markets. For example, if a VC invests $500 million for 5% of a company, the implied valuation is $10 billion. If there’s a liquidation preference on that investment and the company sells out for $3 billion to a competitor, the VC gets paid first. Despite the paper loss against implied valuation, the VC walks away fully paid off and most likely with a profit to boot, because he was first in line before lower-order shareholders… and the common stock is worth wildly less than $10 billion. The point is this: valuations in the world of venture capital are routinely inflated and misreported because they’re calculated without taking into account the true nature of liquidity preferences. But inflated valuations make for good headlines that drive clicks, so we get stories about bubbles from reporters more interested in sensational claims than anything resembling the truth. Let’s take those claims with a grain of salt (since we now know they often rest on a faulty premise or three) and turn our attention instead to more quantifiable data as we wrestle with the Tech Bubble 2.0 question. A Look at the NumbersHere’s a chart that shows the annual number and dollar amount of venture capital deals from 1998 through 2013. I think we can all agree that 2000 was a bubble year in the truest sense. The number and dollar amount of VC deals in that year were up 39% and 89% respectively from the year before, and 149% and 421% more than two years earlier. In the 13 subsequent years, the VC market has yet to come close to equaling the number of deals or the dollar amount of financing completed in 2000.
These numbers aren’t even inflation adjusted, so the nominal value is even a bit overstated. And yes, deal flow has been increasing more rapidly than dollars, but that just means VCs are picking up smaller deals on average, which is usually indicative of a focus on earlier-stage companies (counter to all the talk about the comparative handful of “mega rounds” and late-stage financing). If 2000 is the benchmark for a bubble, these data would suggest that the VC market is nowhere near the hysteria that characterized the dot-com years. But the data cover VC activity for all industries; what about data specific to tech? Let’s take a look.
As you can see, information technology drove the 2000 bubble, accounting for 65% of venture capital financing as it jumped to record heights—not unlike subprime loans in 2005-‘07, the asset class exploded higher in activity. In 2013, tech accounted for a much healthier 26% of total venture capital financing—close to its typical share. Furthermore, total tech financing (including life sciences) of $17.2 billion in 2013 was only 26% of the $66 billion financed in 2000, while “other” industry financing in 2013 was 59% of the 2000 amount. From the data, an argument could be made that there’s less evidence of a bubble in tech than in the rest of the market. So the numbers seem to be telling us we’re not yet in a tech bubble. However, our chart also shows us that we’ve had significant VC financings for three consecutive years. And Dow VentureSource reports that in 2014 the pace is accelerating. First-half 2014 venture investment, according to the research firm, was $25 billion and is projected to reach $50 billion for the year. That’s a 52% increase over 2013. A Bubble of a Different SortHow do we reconcile the fact that technology isn’t running away from the pack as it did in the dot-com era with the fact that venture activity has surpassed 2007 levels and is climbing? The former seems to contradict the theory that tech is in a bubble, yet the latter shows we have definitely entered an exuberant phase. Has the economy improved so much it’s simply a warranted increase? Some believe that we’ve simply entered a new golden age of technology, and that differences in the makeup and maturity of the tech market between the dot-com days and the present justify the increased activity. Marty Biancuzzo, writing for Wall Street Daily, effectively describes those differences: Consider that before the dot-com frenzy took hold, the euphoria came largely from one industry trend: the Internet. Today, we still have tech sector exuberance, of course… but it’s dispersed across several industries instead. For example, trends like mobile technology, cloud computing, social media, on-demand services, the Internet of Things, and wearable technology. In other words, today’s tech sector is much more diverse than it was 15 years ago, when the Internet was just getting started. We have far more growth drivers now. In our “always on, always connected” society, says Biancuzzo, we have “unstoppable mega trends that’ll drive underlying growth for years.” It’s hard to argue with the increased user base of technology over the last 15 years—growth has been enormous all around the world. Fund raising for tech, especially information tech, is primarily driven by fundamentals and growth catalysts today as opposed to the euphoria that came to drive venture capitalist in 2000. But that only answers half the question. That technology VC activity has grown so much would be a fine explanation had it not stayed at the same ratio to all other venture investing. That means all other venture investing is way up too, and those markets don’t have the same qualitative justification. The same goes for every aspect we’ve explored:
All these factors together look like the opposite of 1999. Back then, technology’s bubble caused excess capital to flow into all sorts of industries, pushing up wages, tax receipts, stock values, private equity and venture flows, etc. well beyond the dot-coms. But technology clearly led the way. Today, tech is rising in line with everything else. It appears to be the side beneficiary of a bubble elsewhere, not the cause. When you cannot pinpoint where you have a bubble, it usually means that bubble is in money and banking itself. While the Mexican peso crashed in the 1980s, many a “millionaire” was minted as the stock market there rose rapidly in nominal terms. Japan has seen a similar trend in recent years, with the yen falling and Japanese stocks rising. And now, America is awash in cheap liquidity. That’s driving up public debt and derivatives activity to unforeseen levels. Those who hedged their holdings against previous liquidity bubbles did spectacularly well—think George Soros and others who bet against the British pound. Those who didn’t hedge just ended up peso millionaires. My advice to those who are worried about a tech bubble… think bigger. We’re in the midst of a classic game of excess liquidity driving up asset prices across the board. When that happens, you must stay invested, lest you miss asset prices rising rapidly while wages and interest stagnate (sound familiar for the past five years?). And you would be very well served by hedging against the possibility that our currency goes the way of the peso. After all, that’s the actual goal of current policy, as cheap dollars equal strong exports and blue-collar jobs.
Is Apple Watch a Needle Mover?Adam J. Crawford, Analyst The investment community has been up in arms over a lack of innovation from Apple. After all, the company hasn’t launched a new product line in quite some time… that is, until now. Meet the company’s brand-new smart device: Apple Watch. Investors hope the product will send Apple’s stock to new heights. Is that wishful thinking? Apple brings its new product into a hotly contested space, with the likes of Sony, Nike, and Samsung all offering a competing smartwatch. But there’s a common theme with reviews for these gadgets: not enough features, not enough style. Apple aims to fill this void… and will charge a premium for doing so, of course. Apple Watch will retail for $349, notably higher than most competing watches. Since Apple is notorious for putting the squeeze on retail margins (it reportedly allows retail as little as 3% on tablets), retailers would likely make 10% on the Apple Watch, placing Apple&r | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 24 Sep 2014 05:00 PM PDT The US dollar is extending its recent gains. There does not appear to be a new driver. Rather, the momentum, without meeting official resistance, is encouraging piling on. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
We have huge buying in gold and silver here at the bottom. Our business has increased a stunning 50 percent over the past few months. To give you just one example, there is an individual who is making an incredibly large purchase of physical gold. This one individual has approached us and is shopping the market for $40 million of gold. And, Eric, this is just one person. Think about that for a minute. These are the types of things you see at major market bottoms. You get some really smart money stepping in and buying. So I think we will be looking at higher prices into the end of this year and going into next year.
This is an excerpt of a statement apparently made by Ned Naylor-Leyland about an article involving alleged evidence presented on silver rigging that has failed to see publication anywhere for a year. This statement has now appeared in several public places overnight. A quick email to Ned last night confirmed that it was his. I have found Ned to be a serious person and highly competent analyst.
Almond farmers in California’s Central Valley, where about 80 percent of the world’s supply of almonds is grown, are desperate for water. As most of the state hobbles through one of its worst droughts in history, growers are reportedly siphoning off water wherever they can get it, robbing taxpayers and the general public of a shared and increasingly scarce resource that could take many years to replenish.
The fundamentals that drive gold prices higher are in full force and improving. Central banks are buying more of the precious metal (to add to their reserves), while countries that are known to be big consumers of 
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