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Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Gold Q&A from Readers

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 11:05 PM PDT

Read the Latest News About: Gold    Silver    Economy    Central Banking Based on questions, opinions, and rants from several websites,...

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How to invest like ... George Soros

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 10:57 PM PDT

Would you be brave enough to invest in gold even if you were convinced it was in a bubble?




This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

It Is Necessary To Understand the Big Picture

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 09:20 PM PDT

by David Schectman, MilesFranklin.com:

Here is an email from one of our long-term readers below.  It's nice to know that many of you appreciate the time and effort Andy, Bill and I put into this newsletter every day in our quest to keep you up to date with the important and rapidly changing information maze.  We believe it is necessary to understand the big picture – but it is also helpful to get the most important daily take on the how we are progressing toward the resolution of the U.S. petrodollar, the U.S. economy and gold and silver.  I guess that's the long and the short of it.

I want to thank all of you who take the time to write us with your questions and comments.

Read More @ MilesFranklin.com

Richard Russell - Silver & The Nastiest Stock Market In History

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 09:02 PM PDT

With continued turmoil and uncertainty in global markets, today KWN is publishing another important piece that was written by a 60-year market veteran. The Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, is urging people to buy physical silver because something is "brewing" in the silver market. Russell also discussed shorting stocks and included a a fascinating chart of the silver/gold ratio.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Lend us your gold: Indian banks push farmers to back loans with gold

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 08:40 PM PDT

by Shivom Seth, MineWeb.com

Banks in India have found a new friend in the farming community, with most encouraging farmers to mortgage gold as a collateral against loans to avert a repayment crisis. The precious metal is turning out to be the new security for farm loans.

Especially in South India, several banks are hawking concessional rates for loans against gold in order to reduce risks to their portfolios, and are urging farmers to take cash for their gold jewellery or gold slabs.

Read More @ MineWeb.com

Asian Stocks Tumble After China, Japan Disappoint On Additional Stimulus

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:55 PM PDT

The last time global equity markets were falling at this pace (on a growth scare) was the fall of 2011. That time, after a big push lower, November saw a mass co-ordinated easing by central banks to save the world... stock jumped, the global economy spurted into action briefly, and all was well. This time, it's different. The Fed is tapering (and the hurdle to change course is high), the ECB balance sheet is shrinking (and there's nothing but promises), the PBOC tonight said "anyone anticipating additional stimulus would be disappointed," and then the BoJ failed to increase their already-ridiculous QE (ETF purchase) programs. The JPY is strengthening, Asian and US stocks are dropping, CNY is weakening, and gold rising.

 

The last time stocks were stumbling on the back of a high-growth hopium scare... central banks saved the world...

Commentary from China's Xinhua News Agency (implicitly the point of exit for open mouth operations by the PBOC) suggest hope is fading for a big save...as Bloomberg reports,

China won’t rely on a large stimulus like the one following the 2008 global financial crisis to boost its economy after a “string of lukewarm economic indicators,” according to a commentary from Xinhua News Agency written by Zhang Zhengfu.

 

Talk about an incoming stimulus is “misleading” and those anticipating a package will likely be “disappointed,” the commentary says. A “mini stimulus” theory started after the State Council announced a set of policies including tax breaks and support for poor areas, the commentary says. China’s economy needs “a little” but not a “fully fledged” stimulus, the commentary says

 

and then the defaulting names started to fall

  • *CHAORI SHRS FALL AFTER BONDHOLDER SEEKS BANKRUPTCY RESTRUCTURE
  • *CHAORI SOLAR SHARES FALL 5.02% TO 2.46 YUAN IN SHENZHEN

But they promise dthey would pay in July

 

Shanghai Property stocks are lower once again

Then the BoJ disappointed... (even as Kuroda hinted last month inflation was well on its way to target)

Expectatations were for static monetary base expansion, a doubling of ETF purchases, and boosting bond purchases by 10 trillion yen

 

They did not...

 

*BOJ RETAINS PLAN FOR 60T-70T YEN ANNUAL RISE IN MONETARY BASE

 

No change to bond purchases

 

No change to ETF purchases

 

And JPY remains stronger and NKY weaker...

 

 

Japan is pumping the propoganda...

 

*BOJ: JAPAN'S ECONOMY HAS CONTINUED TO RECOVER MODERATELY

Except it hasn't...

 

 

The last time Japan attempted a consumption tax hike without the aid of monetary stimulus satefy net, this happened...


With broad-based currency volatility at 7-year lows, we suspect the ongoing currency war escalation with China may see this rise... and of course, FX traders' complacency handed Kuroda an opportunity to have maximal impact with any changes - but he didn't - which makes you wonder if/when he will given how high inflation is...

 

  • Chinese stocks are up modestly (led by banks) but property developers are being sold hard
  • Japan, Shenzhen, Australia, India, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, and Taiwan are all red
     

 

Full BoJ statement here.

 

As a reminder Fed minutes are released tomorrow.

U.S. Economy on Brink of Systemic Failure | Jim Willie

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:36 PM PDT

IN THIS INTERVIEW:- Japanese economic collapse ahead ►1:13- Former Bank of Japan Governor says Japan's QE is ineffective at helping economy.** What about the Federal Reserve's QE? ►4:40- Russia to stop trading in dollar; petrodollar system is ending ►8:44- How will the average America be affected...

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Fed gives banks extra time for compliance with Volcker Rule

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:20 PM PDT

By Gina Chon
Financial Times, London
Monday, April 7, 2014

WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve granted a fresh concession to banks that are subject to the Volcker rule on Monday, giving them two more years to offload their holdings in collateralised loan obligations to comply with the measure.

The Volcker rule, aimed at banning proprietary trading, would have forced banks to divest their CLO investments, resulting in billions of dollars in losses. ...

... For the complete story:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/323fb550-be9e-11e3-b44a-00144feabdc0.html



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Safe and Private Allocated Bullion Storage In Singapore

Given the increasing risks in financial markets, it is more important than ever to own physical bullion coins and bars and to store them in the safest vaults in the world in the safest jurisdictions in the world. Gold advocates Jim Sinclair and Marc Faber have recommended Singapore.

Now, with GoldCore, you can own coins and bars in fully insured, segregated, and allocated accounts in Singapore with the ability to take delivery. Learn more by downloading GoldCore's Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore:

http://info.goldcore.com/essential-guide-to-storing-gold-in-singapore

And for more information call Daniel or Sharon at +44 203 0869200 in the United Kingdom or at +1-302-635-1160 in the United States. Or email them at info@goldcore.com.



Join GATA here:

Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference
AT&T Performing Arts Center
Margot and Bill Winspear Opera House
2403 Flora St., Dallas, Texas
Saturday, May 31, 2014

http://stansberrydallas.com/

Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
Union League Club, New York City
Thursday, May 22, 2014

http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/

Canadian Investor Conference 2014
Vancouver Convention Centre West
1055 Canada Place, Vancouver, British Columbia
Sunday and Monday, June 1 and 2, 2014

http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Buy precious metals free of value-added tax throughout Europe

Europe Silver Bullion is a fast-growing dealer sourcing its products from renowned mints, refiners, and distributors. Because of a legal loophole that will close soon, you can acquire the world's most popular bullion coins free of value-added tax throughout the European Union. You can collect your order in person at our headquarters in Tallinn, Estonia, or have it delivered in any of the 28 EU countries.

Europe Silver Bullion is owned and operated by North American and European experts in selling, storing, and transporting precious metals. We have an extensive product inventory of silver, gold, platinum, and palladium, and our network spans the world.

Visit us at www.europesilverbullion.com.


At KWN, Turk cites gold backwardation, Embry cites gold lockdown

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:16 PM PDT

10:15a HKT Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk today tells King World News about the growing backwardation in the gold market as central bank intervention increasingly distorts all major markets:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/4/7_Rec...

And Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells KWN that the gold price has been in government lockdown for three weeks but that gold's fundamentals remain "rock-solid":

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/4/7_Thi...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



ADVERTISEMENT

Buy precious metals free of value-added tax throughout Europe

Europe Silver Bullion is a fast-growing dealer sourcing its products from renowned mints, refiners, and distributors. Because of a legal loophole that will close soon, you can acquire the world's most popular bullion coins free of value-added tax throughout the European Union. You can collect your order in person at our headquarters in Tallinn, Estonia, or have it delivered in any of the 28 EU countries.

Europe Silver Bullion is owned and operated by North American and European experts in selling, storing, and transporting precious metals. We have an extensive product inventory of silver, gold, platinum, and palladium, and our network spans the world.

Visit us at www.europesilverbullion.com.



Join GATA here:

Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference
AT&T Performing Arts Center
Margot and Bill Winspear Opera House
2403 Flora St., Dallas, Texas
Saturday, May 31, 2014

http://stansberrydallas.com/

Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
Union League Club, New York City
Thursday, May 22, 2014

http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/

Canadian Investor Conference 2014
Vancouver Convention Centre West
1055 Canada Place, Vancouver, British Columbia
Sunday and Monday, June 1 and 2, 2014

http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Safe and Private Allocated Bullion Storage In Singapore

Given the increasing risks in financial markets, it is more important than ever to own physical bullion coins and bars and to store them in the safest vaults in the world in the safest jurisdictions in the world. Gold advocates Jim Sinclair and Marc Faber have recommended Singapore.

Now, with GoldCore, you can own coins and bars in fully insured, segregated, and allocated accounts in Singapore with the ability to take delivery. Learn more by downloading GoldCore's Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore:

http://info.goldcore.com/essential-guide-to-storing-gold-in-singapore

And for more information call Daniel or Sharon at +44 203 0869200 in the United Kingdom or at +1-302-635-1160 in the United States. Or email them at info@goldcore.com.


Ex-ABN Amro CEO Killed Family Before Hanging Himself

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:15 PM PDT

Sadly, as suspected - and in line with his CFO in 2009 - the reported death of Jan Peter Schmittmann was indeed suicide. The ex-CEO of ABN Amro hanged himself, but only after murdering his wife, Nally, and 22 year-ol daughter Babette. As Bloomberg reports, a farewell letter was found in the house, but authorities declined further comment on its contents. Schmittmann's family was cited as saying in the statement that "we knew Jan Peter struggled with severe depression," and added that their "first concern now is supporting the remaining daughter in coping with this indescribable grief." Aweful...

As Bloomberg reports,

De Telegraaf reported today that Schmittmann hanged himself, citing two people it didn't identify.

Bloomberg explains Schmittmann's history:

Schmittmann joined ABN Amro Holding NV, once among Europe's biggest banks, in 1983 as an assistant relationship manager and was named head of the lender's Dutch unit in 2003. As a member of the bank's executive board, he was responsible for restructuring it along the lines agreed by Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Fortis and Banco Santander SA in their three-way takeover of the lender in 2007.

 

A year after the biggest financial-services takeover in history, the credit crunch drove Fortis to the verge of collapse, forcing the Netherlands to take over its Dutch banking and insurance units, including assets of the former ABN Amro in 2008. The Dutch asked Gerrit Zalm to lead the company now called ABN Amro Group NV.

 

On the eve of the nationalization, Schmittmann was dismissed by the Dutch Finance Ministry, he told lawmakers in a 2011 hearing. He received an 8 million-euro ($11 million) severance payment, less than what he was entitled to under his contract and more than the Dutch government sought to pay.

Dutch Police Statement (via Google Translate):

On Saturday April 5 officers found three lifeless bodies in the house. It turned out to be the father, mother and the youngest daughter of family Schmittmann. The entire Saturday performed the Forensic Investigation research in and around the home. The first indications of the police pointed to a possible family drama. The eldest daughter of the family was not at home and is caught by her family.

 

Further investigation

 

To exclude other possible scenarios were, in addition to the search for clues in the home, research bodies carried out to establish the cause of death. Information was also gathered from family and friends of the family to get what had happened as possible a clear picture. Dutch Forensic Institute confirmed the suspicions that the police had. The mother and daughter are killed by the father, the father then committed suicide. The house is a suicide note found.

 

Are related to privacy and respect for the family, no further statements made about the time of death, the manner of death and the contents of the suicide note.

 

Explanation family Schmittmann

 

The family has stated: "We are deeply shocked and beaten by this unimaginable news. We knew that Jan Peter struggled with severe depression that would eventually lead to these events is still incomprehensible to us, our first concern... now supporting the other daughter of the family in the processing of this indescribable grief. We hope to be able to do. "in peace and seclusion"

Aweful...

Colloidal Silver a Possible Cure for Ebola -- Mike Rivero

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:10 PM PDT

What Really Happened Radio Show: Michael Rivero Monday April 7 2014: (Commercial Free Video) Michael Rivero is the webmaster of http://whatreallyhappened.com/ and host of the What Really Happened radio shows on the Republic Broadcasting Network. Formerly with NASA, Michael transitioned his...

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Brokers Not Appreciating Massive Physical Gold Market

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:05 PM PDT

from KitcoNews:

How To Hold Gold & Silver In Your IRA - Bulletproof Your Retirement

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 06:23 PM PDT

Did you know you can buy physical gold and silver for your IRA? Yes, the U.S. Government allows you to invest in gold and silver bullion for retirement purposes with income tax advantages using an Individual Retirement Account (IRA). What if my IRA custodian won't allow physical silver and gold...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

HFT Trader Busted For Spoofing Nearly Cheated His Way To The Top Of CNBC's Million-Dollar Challenge

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 05:55 PM PDT

On Friday, we reported that in the latest in a long series regulatory crack downs of low grade high frequency traders - because obviously nobody will touch the big boys - the "SEC busted HFT firms for "tricking people into trading at artificial prices." What is notable is that the owner of one of the charged firms, Joseph Dondero who was the head of Visionary Trading, and who agreed to a $1.9 million settlement and to be barred from the securities industry for spoofing order flow which is a low-grade form of quote stuffing, has had an extended track record of run ins with the law.

As BusinessWeek reported back in 2007, according to NASD records Dondero was the subject of the regulator's inquiry letters because of "wash" trades, among other things. Wash trading is when someone buys and sells the same security simultaneously—or in quick succession—to create the appearance of active trading. It can be done to generate commissions for a broker or for tax purposes. This is quite comparable to the "spoofing" which Dondero was busted and barred for at his latest firm, Visionary Trading.

BusinessWeek adds that the New Jersey Bureau of Securities records pertain to Dondero's time at a day-trading firm in Iselin, N.J. called Evolution Financial Technologies. The records say that, "As a result of his trading activity, Mr. Dondero was on heightened supervision and probation which resulted in his changing from a proprietary trading to a customer. This did not involve customers or a loss." Dondero, who attended the College of New Jersey until 1999, has worked at a series of small financial firms. One of them, Heartland Securities, was sued by the Securities & Exchange Commission for alleged stock manipulation and falsifying records. Heartland closed in 2003 after two executives, Sheldon Maschler and Jeffrey Citron, paid $29.2 million and $22.5 million, respectively, without admitting or denying wrongdoing. (Citron went on to found the Internet phone company, Vonage Holdings (VG)). Dondero was at the firm after the alleged wrongdoing, but before the settlement.

Needless to say, Dondero had quite a "track record" of illegal trading activity before he was finally busted for one last time engaging in HFT spoofing.

However, it is not his FINRA brokercheck record that is of interest, but the fact that back in 2007, in the first ever CNBC Million-Dollar challenge, it was none other than Dondero who almost won. And yes, he nearly manipulated his way to the $1 million prize money then too. Only, the way he did fudged his winning percentage was not as most other competition participants had, by abusing the widely known system glitch that allowed contestants to see which stocks were rising in after-hours trading and then to buy those stocks at the lower, 4 p.m. EST closing price, but using a far more devious scheme. One which is reminiscent of the crime that last week just ended his trading career in the real world as well.

BusinessWeek explains:

[Dondero's] trades drew criticism from other finalists, nonetheless, with at least three contestants complaining about his choices early in the final round. Because Dondero was picking thinly traded stocks in the CNBC contest, the other finalists worried that he could be manipulating the prices of those stocks in real-world markets. "He only picked stocks that could be manipulated," says Jim Kraber, one of the finalists who says he flagged CNBC. Kraber emphasizes that he has no way of knowing whether Dondero was indeed manipulating stocks.

 

CNBC took somewhat-belated action to prevent such manipulation. BusinessWeek has learned that on May 18, midway through the final two-week round of CNBC's contest, the cable channel asked each of the 20 finalists to sign a statement that any real-world trades they made were not "for the purpose of, or with an intent to, affect or manipulate the price" of the stocks they were picking in the contest. The penalty for failing to sign was stiff: "If you fail to return the attestation or your attestation is not truthful, you may be disqualified from the contest," wrote CNBC Vice-President of Marketing Tom Clendenin in an e-mail.

 

A close examination of Dondero's trading in the CNBC contest raises questions about his approach, but offers few definitive answers. The primary concern of other finalists was that Dondero was buying stocks in his CNBC portfolio and then driving up the price by buying the same stocks in the real market the next day. That's easier to do with thinly traded stocks than heavily traded ones. Dondero did pick some thinly traded stocks, but not all of those trades were successful. He also made other kinds of purchases that contributed to his portfolio returns.

 

In the final round of the CNBC contest, Dondero saw nice gains on picks of BioProgress (BPRG), a British pharmaceutical company, and Hanarotelecom (HANA), a Korean telecom company, which both trade on Nasdaq (NDAQ).

 

On a typical day, neither stock sees much action in the real world. BioProgress trades an average of 3,100 shares a day on Nasdaq, while Hanarotelecom averages 7,400 trades a day. But both saw huge jumps in volume in the days after Dondero picked them. Hanaro soared from close to 19,000 shares on May 14, to well over 27,000 the next day. Dondero realized a 6.4% gain for his contest portfolio, as the stock rose. The following day, when Dondero chose BioProgress, more than 5,000 shares changed hands, compared with zero shares the previous day. Again, Dondero saw a healthy gain of 4.5%.

In retrospect a brilliant strategy: picking microcap, illiquid, and ultra-thinly traded stocks in a virtual portfolio and then manipulating these stocks in real life using oddblocks to reap giant profits, without much capital at stake (so unwinding the trade wouldn't cost him much in the end), then rinsing and repeating, all the way until the $1 million prize.

To be sure, Dondero was smart, and inbetween the manipulated blocks, he injected some normal-course winners and losers.

But Dondero didn't always make money on his thinly traded stocks. On May 21, he again picked BioProgress, and again volume spiked, this time to 23,000 shares from 1,400 the previous day. But Dondero lost 2.64% on the trade.

 

Other thinly traded stocks Dondero picked included Velcro (VELC), the famous fastener maker, and Macronix International (MXIC), a Taiwan-based manufacturer of computer memory. Neither were big winners for him in the final round.

 

Indeed, Dondero's biggest winner during the finals was Fremont General (FMT), the subprime mortgage lender whose stock trades an average of 4 million shares a day. Dondero picked the stock on May 22 and after the market closed that day, the company said that it would sell its commercial real estate business for $1.9 billion. The news drove shares up 26.7%, a huge one-day gain in the contest.

Of course, when one strings a series of 9 "sure" winners in a row, the 10th one is not nearly as relevant, and can be left to chance, especially if it is subsequently used as the alibi to claim Dondero never cheat or manipulated the game.  And speaking of manipulation, 2007 appears to have been one of the last years in which CNBC actually cared about something called "integrity":

Dondero's picks in CNBC's contest could be examined as part of the cable channel's investigation into "unusual trading." Beyond looking at traders who may have benefited from its own software glitch, CNBC says that it has retained an "independent securities expert" to look into allegations of market manipulation. CNBC declined to comment for this story. But it previously said, "Integrity is paramount to CNBC. We are taking all allegations of improprieties very seriously."

Whether it did or not is unclear. Dondero finished fourth in the contest with a total 32% return, while some or all of the contestants above Dondero were likewise accused of rigging the competition.

But the final outcome was negative: Dondero did not win, and whatever capital losses he may have suffered while "spoofing" the thinly traded stocks he used as picks for his virtual portfolio he had to fill out of his own wallet.

Incidentally, the winner of that particular CNBC stock-picking challenge: it was an Ohio waitress who had never bought a stock in real life.

We wonder which HFT shop she works at now?

FINAL BUBBLE PHASE FOR THE STOCK MARKET: FINAL CAPITULATION FOR GOLD

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 05:27 PM PDT

After two hard days down in the stock market I'm going to take a contrary position and say that this is just a normal profit taking event and that stocks are going to recover and head back up to new highs. I still think this market needs to have a final blowoff bubble phase before the bull can die. The final bubble phase for stocks should usher in the final capitulation stage of golds 2 1/2 year bear market. For those like SMT subscribers that are sitting in cash, this final capitulation is going to represent one of the greatest buying opportunities of this generation.

First off let's take a look at the stock market: 

We've had so many calls for a crash over the last year that you just know the bears are salivating right now thinking they are finally going to get their wish. However, I don't think we can have a crash in the stock market until we complete a true parabolic structure. Notice that during the final parabolic move in 2000 the NASDAQ had two back-to-back 10% corrections, one of them unfolding in only three days and completing what looked like at the time a double top. The shorts that jumped in at the bottom of that second 10% correction then got absolutely destroyed over the next six weeks as the tech sector proceeded to rally 34%.


We saw a very similar pattern during oils parabolic advance in 2008. Two very convincing 10% corrections followed by a 5 to 6 week surge into a final top.


The fashionable call right now is that the big momentum names like Facebook, Priceline, Tesla, Netflix, etc. are leading the market into a new bear. I on the other hand think these stocks are just pulling back in preparation for one final mind blowing surge to top off this five-year bull market.

Gold on the other hand looks like it is setting up for a final bear market capitulation phase where every gold bug finally throws up their hands in disgust and jumps over to the stock market right as it's putting in a final bubble top.

It's now been a year since gold broke through that $1520 support zone and gold has yet to ignite a new bull market move. We've had two very convincing bear market rallies but both have rolled over at that same $1400 level. I'm afraid this has probably so demoralized precious metal investors that when we get our next test of that sub $1200 level later this month there just aren't going to be any buyers left to defend that level. A third test of that support will almost certainly end in a break and final violent capitulation down to the next support zone at the 2008 high a little above $1000.


As gut wrenching as it is for me to say this, this final capitulation will probably shave another 30-50% off of the mining stocks and bankrupt many of the juniors.

There have been numerous warning signs over the last two weeks that the gold bear might not be done just yet. If we had seen a final bear market bottom on December 31 the miners should have rallied at least 75 to 100% in the first two months. Well two months went by and the best that the HUI could deliver was a 35% gain.

Also when gold failed to move above $1434 it set the yearly cycle up in an extreme left translated pattern. For those that don't know what translation is let me explain. Golds yearly cycle for instance typically runs about 12 months from trough to trough. A cycle that tops in a right translated manner would find a high somewhere after the seventh month. A left translated cycle on the other hand would find a final top in six months or less. So if a cycle runs 12 months and tops in a left translated fashion on let's say month four it has eight months to decline. Much longer than the four months it rallied. So consequently, left translated cycles typically move below the previous cycle low. As you can see in the chart below golds yearly cycle topped in an extreme left translated pattern on month #2.


As I have noted in previous reports gold is now moving down into an intermediate degree bottom, and this intermediate bottom will also be a larger degree yearly cycle bottom. The magnification of those two larger degree cycles coming together at the same time should create an exceptionally violent and aggressive move over the next 4-8 weeks. The risk is very high that gold is going to break that double bottom support over the next 1 to 2 months, and when it does I don't think anything will stop the decline until it reaches the next major support zone a little above $1000.

That's the point at which investors that have available cash will get the third great buying opportunity of this secular bull market. The first two delivered amazing gains as they came out of their bear market bottoms.



This coming bear market bottom will be no different, and it might  be even more intense than the other two as it should kickoff the final 2-3 year bubble phase of the secular gold bull.

For those that have the mental fortitude to buy at the impending bottom when it looks like the entire sector is going to collapse forever, this is where millionaires and billionaires will be made.

Remember bear markets create opportunities. The bigger the bear, the bigger the opportunity. Just look at the recent bear market in stocks as an example. At the bottom in 2009 the stock market bear was the second most damaging in history. It generated a five year bull market that has rallied 185% and I don't think it's done yet.

Before the gold bear is done I expect the juniors will have dropped 90% or better and the majors by at least 70-75%.

I look forward to trying to call that final bottom in real time over the next couple of months.

This Is What Employment In America Really Looks Like...

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 05:23 PM PDT

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

The level of employment in the United States has been declining since the year 2000.  There have been moments when things have appeared to have been getting better for a short period of time, and then the decline has resumed.  Thanks to the offshoring of millions of jobs, the replacement of millions of workers with technology and the overall weakness of the U.S. economy, the percentage of Americans that are actually working is significantly lower than it was when this century began.  And even though things have stabilized at a reduced level over the past few years, it is only a matter of time until the next major wave of the economic collapse strikes and the employment level goes even lower.  And the truth is that more good jobs are being lost every single day in America.  For example, as you will read about below, Warren Buffett is shutting down a Fruit of the Loom factory in Kentucky and moving it to Honduras just so that he can make a little bit more money.  We see this kind of betrayal over and over again, and it is absolutely ripping the middle class of America to shreds.

Below I have posted a chart that you never hear any of our politicians talk about.  It is a chart that shows how the percentage of working age Americans with a job has steadily declined since the turn of the century.  Just before the last recession, we were sitting at about 63 percent, but now we have been below 59 percent since the end of 2009...

Employment Population Ratio 2014

We should be thankful that things have stabilized at this lower level for the past few years.

At least things have not been getting worse.

But anyone that believes that "things have returned to normal" is just being delusional.

And nothing is being done about the long-term trends that are absolutely crippling our economy.  One of those trends is the offshoring of middle class jobs.  As I mentioned above, Fruit of the Loom (which is essentially owned by Warren Buffett) has made the decision to close their factory in Jamestown, Kentucky and lay off all the workers at that factory by the end of 2014...

Clothing company Fruit of the Loom announced Thursday that it will permanently close its plant in Jamestown and lay off all 600 employees by the end of the year.

 

The Jamestown plant is the last Fruit of the Loom plant in a state where the company had once been a manufacturing titan second only to General Electric.

This isn't being done because Fruit of the Loom is going out of business.  They are still going to be making t-shirts and underwear.  They are just going to be making them in Honduras from now on...

The company, owned by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway but headquartered in Bowling Green, said the move is "part of the company's ongoing efforts to align its global supply chain" and will allow the company to better use its existing investments to provide products cheaper and faster.

 

The company said it is moving the plant's textile operations to Honduras to save money.

So what are those workers supposed to do?

Go on welfare?

The number of Americans that are dependent on the government is already at an all-time record high.

And doesn't Warren Buffett already have enough money?

In business school, they teach you that the sole responsibility of a corporation is to maximize wealth for the shareholders.

And so when business students get out into "the real world", that is how they behave.

But the truth is that corporations have a responsibility to treat their workers, their customers and the communities in which they operate well.  This responsibility exists whether corporate executives want to admit it or not.

And we all have a responsibility to our fellow citizens.  When we stand aside and do nothing as millions of good paying American jobs are shipped overseas so that the "one world economic agenda" can be advanced and so that men like Warren Buffett can stuff their pockets just a little bit more, we are failing our fellow countrymen.

Because so many of us have fallen for the lie that "globalism is good", we have allowed our once great manufacturing cities to crumble and die.  Just consider what is happening to Detroit.  It was once the greatest manufacturing city in the history of the planet, but now foreign newspapers publish stories about what a horror show that it has become...

Khalil Ligon couldn’t tell if the robbers were in her house. She had just returned home to find her front window smashed and a brick lying among shattered glass on the floor. Ligon, an urban planner who lives alone on Detroit’s east side, stepped out and called the police.

 

It wasn’t the first time Ligon’s home had been broken into, she told me. And when Detroit police officers finally arrived the next day, surveying an area marred by abandoned structures and overgrown vegetation, they asked Ligon a question she often ponders herself: why is she still in Detroit?

Of course this kind of thing is not just happening to Detroit.  The truth is that it is happening all over the nation.  For example, this article contains an incredible graphic which shows how the middle class of Chicago has steadily disappeared over the past several decades.

Once again, even though we have never had a "recovery", it is a good thing that things have at least stabilized at a lower level for the past few years.

But now there are all sorts of indications that we are rapidly heading toward yet another economic downturn.  The tsunami of retail store closings that is now upon us is just one sign of this.  The following is a partial list of retail store closings from a recent article by Daniel Jennings...

  • Quiznos has filed for bankruptcy, USA Today reported, and could close many of its 2,100 stores.
  • Sbarro which operates pizza and Italian restaurants in malls, is planning to close 155 locations in the United States and Canada. That means nearly 20 percent of Sbarro’s will close. The chain operates around 800 outlets.
  • Ruby Tuesday announced plans to close 30 restaurants in January after its sales fell by 7.8 percent. The chain currently operates around 775 steakhouses across the US.
  • An unknown number of Red Lobster stores will be sold. The chain is in such bad shape that the parent company, Darden Restaurants Inc., had to issue a press release stating that the chain would not close. Instead Darden is planning to spin Red Lobster off into another company and sell some of its stores.
  • Ralph’s, a subsidiary of Kroger, has announced plans to close 15 supermarkets in Southern California within 60 days.
  • Safeway closed 72 Dominick’s grocery stores in the Chicago area last year.

And the following are some more signs of trouble for the retail industry from one of my recent articles entitled "20 Facts About The Great U.S. Retail Apocalypse That Will Blow Your Mind"...

#1 As you read this article, approximately a billion square feet of retail space is sitting vacant in the United States.

#2 Last week, Radio Shack announced that it was going to close more than a thousand stores.

#3 Last week, Staples announced that it was going to close 225 stores.

#4 Same-store sales at Office Depot have declined for 13 quarters in a row.

#5 J.C. Penney has been dying for years, and it recently announced plans to close 33 more stores.

#6 J.C. Penney lost 586 million dollars during the second quarter of 2013 alone.

#7 Sears has closed about 300 stores since 2010, and CNN is reporting that Sears is "expected to shutter another 500 Sears and Kmart locations soon".

#8 Overall, sales numbers have declined at Sears for 27 quarters in a row.

#9 Target has announced that it is going to eliminate 475 jobs and not fill 700 positions that are currently empty.

#10 It is being projected that Aéropostale will close about 175 stores over the next couple of years.

#11 Macy's has announced that it is going to be closing five stores and eliminating 2,500 jobs.

#12 The Children’s Place has announced that it will be closing down 125 of its "weakest" stores by 2016.

But it isn't just the retail industry that is deeply troubled.

All over America we are seeing economic weakness.

In this economic environment, it doesn't matter how smart, how educated or how experienced you are.  If you are out of work, it can be extremely difficult to find a new job.  Just consider the case of Abe Gorelick...

Abe Gorelick has decades of marketing experience, an extensive contact list, an Ivy League undergraduate degree, a master’s in business from the University of Chicago, ideas about how to reach consumers young and old, experience working with businesses from start-ups to huge financial firms and an upbeat, effervescent way about him. What he does not have — and has not had for the last year — is a full-time job.

 

Five years since the recession ended, it is a story still shared by millions. Mr. Gorelick, 57, lost his position at a large marketing firm last March. As he searched, taking on freelance and consulting work, his family’s finances slowly frayed. He is now working three jobs, driving a cab and picking up shifts at Lord & Taylor and Whole Foods.

So what does Abe need in order to find a decent job?

More education?

More experience?

No, what he needs is an economy that produces good jobs.

Sadly, the cold, hard reality of the matter is that the U.S. economy will never produce enough jobs for everyone ever again.

The way that America used to work is long gone, and it has been replaced by a cold, heartless environment where the company that you work for could rip your job away from you at a moment's notice if they decide that it will put a few extra pennies into the pockets of the shareholders.

You may have worked incredibly hard for 30 years and been super loyal to your company.

It doesn't matter anymore.

All that matters is the bottom line, and in the process the middle class is being destroyed.  But by destroying the middle class, those corporations are destroying the consumer base that their corporate empires were built upon in the first place.

June Gold settles 1298.3, down $5.20

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 02:32 PM PDT

Gold sold off to begin the week amid very light volume and an apparent lack of conviction or follow through to the upside following Friday's close above 1300.0 an ounce. Investor profit taking from the late week rally last
Thursday and Friday was most likely the reason for the sell-off today. Certainly there was no safe haven buying today which was rare considering the stock indices incurred big losses along with the U.S. dollar. It seems to
me precious metal investors maybe waiting for new news or data and that might not come until Wednesday's release of minutes from the Fed's last FOMC meeting.

Let's take a look at technicals for the remainder of the week for both June Gold and May Silver. For June Gold support sits first at 1284.7, and below there at 1266.0. Resistance sits up at 1314.8, and above there at 1326.2.
For Silver, support sits at 19.63, and below there at 19.33. Resistance is up at 20.23 and above there at 20.53.

Daily Swing #s GCM14 Tuesday April 8th

  • Resistance#2- 1308.6
  • Resistance#1- 1303.4
  • Pivot- 1299.6
  • Support#1- 1294.4
  • Support#2- 1290.6

 

Author: Sean Lusk, Walsh Trading

 

Record-Breaking Gold Backwardation Shocking Banks & Shorts

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 02:07 PM PDT

As global markets continue to see some wild trading, today James Turk told King World News that the record-breaking backwardation in the gold market has literally shocked the shorts and the banks, especially those short of the physical metal. Turk predicted this will create a mind boggling move to the upside in both gold and silver.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Winning!!

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 01:21 PM PDT

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Winning!!

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 01:21 PM PDT

High-Frequency Trading and the Shrinking Trust Horizon

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 11:57 AM PDT

The list of markets where big players are cheating the rest of us (and each other) keeps growing. First there was the Libor interest rate, then foreign exchange, then gold. And now comes high-frequency trading (HFT), where Wall Street banks use supercomputers to monitor incoming stock market orders, analyze their likely impact on prices, and place orders ahead of those trades to capture a bit of the price impact. In an HFT-dominated market, individual investors get fractionally-less-favorable prices, which they seldom notice, while in the aggregate billions of dollars are siphoned each year from retail investors, pension funds and even some hedge funds to big Wall Street banks.

Since this practice adds absolutely nothing to the efficiency of the equity markets, and since “front running” is clearly illegal, HFT is a crime without offsetting social benefits. But Wall Street gets away with it — and will continue to get away with it — because the major banks and exchanges make a lot of money from it and donate sufficiently to both major parties to buy a degree of immunity.

Because HFT is the topic of Michael Lewis’ best-selling book Flash Boys, and Lewis is showing up on mainstream outlets like CNN and Good Morning America where he explains the con in layman’s terms, the powers that be now feel compelled to appear to investigate it.

Like the ongoing probes of Libor, foreign exchange and gold, the result will be more show than substance. A few fines will be paid and possibly a few mid-level quants will be sacrificed, while Wall Street’s bonus pool stays deep and wide. So HFT’s exposure, rather than being that big a deal in and of itself, should be seen as part of a pattern of systematic corruption, yet another brick in the wall that separates the financial/political/con artist class from the vast bulk of people who are being harvested.

But the fact that this scandal is being explained on mainstream outlets by a best-selling author means that it is reaching a much broader audience. Lewis isn’t preaching to the choir; he’s bringing the idea that the financial system is a rigged casino to people who hadn’t previously given it much thought. In so doing, he’s accelerating the shrinkage of the trust horizon.

This last term comes from Nicole Foss at Automatic Earth and refers to the process by which people gradually realize that their country’s big systems — the government, banks, national currency, etc. — have been captured/corrupted by people who now run those systems for their rather than the public’s benefit. Seeing this, individuals stop trusting those big systems and shift their attention and resources to people and institutions that they can see and judge face-to-face. They start buying local food rather than national brands, home school their kids, stop identifying with the two major political parties, put their money in local rather than money center banks, and buy hard assets like precious metals and farmland rather than financial assets like stocks and bond.

When a critical mass of people start behaving this way the big systems are starved for capital and begin to fail. Banks go bust, governments run out of money, the currency collapses, etc. That day appears to be coming, and HFT may have given the trend a little added momentum.

The Real Reason Why Platinum And Palladium Prices Will Rise

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 10:39 AM PDT

Palladium prices have remained stable in the last few weeks, platinum prices have come down slightly. We have discussed the breakout on the charts recently; since our last update, we have not detected any meaningful change.

In the bigger picture, both less shiny metals are trending in a wide trading trend. Although both metals are highly correlated, the intensity of the trending moves can differ. As a result, it is clear that palladium looks stronger on the chart than platinum, as evidenced by the following charts. Courtesy of Sharelynx.com.

palladium price 2000 2014 physical market

platinum price 2000 2014 physical market

Recently, strikes at South African mines have caused a massive drop in platinum and palladium production. In addition, the global palladium supply could collapse with 41% overnight if the West would impose export sanctions on Russia (source).  What does this mean for the price?

Rick Rule, Chairman and Founder of Sprott Global Resource Investments, believes that platinum and palladium could go lower in the near-term, as fears of a sudden crunch dissipate. However, the real reason why platinum and palladium should rise longer term has nothing to do with geopolitics or (South African) labor issues. He explains:

The political dispute with Russia is not particularly relevant to the platinum and palladium industry, except in the extremely short term. Cutting off exports from Russia is not in the West's interest, and certainly not in Russia's interest. So I doubt that a politically-motivated ban on exporting the metals will arise.

The supply of platinum and palladium from Russia is threatened by decreasing ore grades at depth in the Norilsk mines, where most of the metals are mined. These mines have been in operation since the early 20th century, so they are likely nearly depleted.

New mines in Russia are probably 10 years away. So at least for the next decade, production should continue to decrease as deposits are increasingly mined out.

Rick Rule believes that labor disputes in South Africa mines will continue until some big miners will be forced to shut down. Platinum and palladium mines simply have to mine ever deeper to produce ore. These miners still generate insufficient cash flow to pay their workers well. Miners simply cannot earn a living wage. In Rule his view, the strikes are an illustration of the industry itself. “If platinum and palladium prices do not rise, mines will close down and workers will be unemployed. There is no way to maintain production rates without sustaining capital investments, but you can't make those investments without being profitable. Thus, the price has to go up to maintain current production.”

The real reason why platinum and palladium prices will rise is not related to the supply side. As has been the case in other metals the past, a rise in demand will lead to a short squeeze. Rick Rule explains:

Remember that platinum and palladium deliver a high utility to users. They are primarily responsible for purifying the air from motor exhaust of most of the pollutants that threaten air quality.

So far, the price increase has been entirely due to supply constraints. Demand has been steady because of a lackluster recovery. If in addition to a supply squeeze, we experience a recovery of demand, the impact on the price of the metals could be dramatic. I believe it's a matter of 'when,' not 'if' that happens.

In the short term, prices could come down slightly. The mining industry and industrial users of the metals probably saw the strikes in South Africa coming and stockpiled ample inventories for their near term uses, so the production loss today will not have an impact on supply for a while, which could temper investors' fears.

Nonetheless, I believe that the loss of production, which so far over 550,000 ounces, will be felt in the intermediate term – say, several months from now. This is because producers will fail to make up for the lost production once work resumes at these mines, creating a shortage further down the road.

Follow Rick Rule via SprottGlobal.com.

Why Own Physical Gold

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 10:16 AM PDT

Here are some numbers...silly or perhaps not...
 
In 2001, as the painful end of the long stock bull market finally seeped into my consciousness, I began to grow quite concerned about my traditional stock and bond holdings, writes Chris Martenson at Peak Prosperity.
 
Other than a house with 27 years left on a 30-year mortgage, these paper holdings represented 100% of my investing portfolio. So I dug into the economic data to discover what the future likely held. What I found shocked me.
 
It's all in my Crash Course, in both video and book form, so I won't go into that data here; but a key takeaway is that the US is spending far more than it is earning, and supporting that gap by printing a whole lot of new money.
 
By 2002, I had investigated enough about our monetary, economic, and political systems that I came to the conclusion that holding gold and silver would be a very good idea. So I poured 50% of my liquid net worth into precious metals, and sat back and waited.
 
So far so good. But the best is yet to come...unfortunately. I say 'unfortunately' because the forces that are going to drive gold higher in current Dollar terms are the very same trends that are going to leave most people, and the planet, much worse off than they are now.
 
Why own gold? The reasons to hold gold (and silver), and I mean physical bullion, are pretty straightforward. So let's begin with the primary ones:
  • To protect against monetary recklessness;
  • As insulation against fiscal foolishness;
  • As insurance against the possibility of a major calamity in the banking/financial system;
  • For the embedded 'option value' that will pay out handsomely if gold is re-monetized.
By 'monetary recklessness,' I mean the creation of money out of thin air and the application of more liquidity than the productive economy actually needs. The central banks of the world have been doing this for decades, not just since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. In gold terms, the supply of above-ground gold is growing at 1.7% per year, while the money supply has been growing at more than three times that yearly rate since 1960.
 
 
Over time, that more than 5% growth differential has created an enormous gap due to the exponential 'miracle' of compounding.
 
Now this is admittedly an unfair view, because the economy has been growing, too. But money and credit growth has still handily outpaced the growth of our artificially and upwardly-distorted GDP measurements by a wide margin. Even as the economy stagnates under this too-large debt load, the credit system continues to expand as if perpetual growth were possible. Given this dynamic, we continue to expect all the resulting extra Dollars, debts and other assorted claims on real wealth to eventually show up in prices of goods and services.
 
And since we live in a system where money is loaned into existence, we also have to look at the growth in credit, as well. Since 1970 the US has been compounding its total credit market debts at the astounding rate of nearly 8% per annum.
 
 
This desperate drive for continuous compounding growth in money and credit is a principal piece of evidence that convinces me that hard assets, of which gold is perhaps the star representative for the average person, are the place to be for a sizeable portion of your stored wealth.
 
Real interest rates are deeply negative (meaning that the rate of inflation is higher than Treasury bond yields). This is a forced, manipulated outcome courtesy of central banks that are buying bonds with thin-air money. Of course, the true rate of inflation is much higher than the officially reported statistics by at least a full percent or possibly two, and so I consider bond yields to be far more negative than your typical observer.
 
Historically, periods of negative real interest rates are nearly always associated with outsized returns for commodities, especially precious metals. If and when real interest rates turn positive, I will reconsider my holdings in gold and silver, but not until then. That's as close to an absolute requirement as I have in this business.
 
Monetary policies across the developed world remain as accommodating as they've ever been. Even Greenspan's 1% blow-out special in 2003 was not as steeply negative in real terms as what Bernanke engineered over his more recent tenure. But it is the highly aggressive and 'alternative' use of the Federal Reserve balance sheet to prop up insolvent banks and to sop up extra Treasury debt that really has me worried.
 
There seems to be no way to end these ever-expanding programs, and they seem to have become a permanent feature of the economic and financial landscape. In Europe, the equivalent is the sovereign debt now found on the European Central Bank (ECB) balance sheet. In Japan we have prime minister Abe's ultra-aggressive policy of doubling the monetary base in just two years. Suffice it to say that such grand experiments have never been tried before, and anyone that has the vast bulk of their wealth tied up in financial assets is making an explicit bet that these experiments will go exactly as planned.
 
Federal fiscal deficits are seemingly out of control and are now stuck in the $1 trillion range. Massive deficit spending has always been inflationary, and inflation is usually gold/silver friendly. Although not always, mind you, as the correlation is not strong, especially during mild inflation (less than 5%). Note, for example, that gold fell from its high in 1980 all the way to its low in 1998, an 18 year period with plenty of mild inflation along the way. Sooner or later I expect extraordinary budget deficits to translate into extraordinary inflation.
 
Reason #3, insurance against a major calamity in the banking system, is an important part of my rationale for holding gold. And let me clear: I'm not referring to "paper" gold, which includes the various tradable vehicles (like the "GLD" ETF) that you can buy like stocks through your broker. I'm talking about physical gold and silver because of their unusual ability to sit outside of the banking/monetary system and act as monetary assets.
 
Literally everything else financial, including our paper US money, is simultaneously somebody else's liability. But gold and silver bullion are not. They are simply, boringly, just assets. This is a highly desirable characteristic that is not easily replicated.
 
Should the banking system suffer a systemic breakdown, to which I ascribe a reasonably high probability of greater than 1-in-3 over the next 5 years, I expect banks to close for some period of time. Whether it's two weeks or six months is unimportant; no matter the length of time, I'd prefer to be holding gold than bank deposits.
 
During a banking holiday, your money will be frozen and left just sitting there, even as everything priced in money (especially imported items) rocket up in price. By the time your money is again available to you, you may find that a large portion of it has been looted by the effects of a collapsing currency. How do you avoid this? Easy; keep some 'money' out of the system to spend during an emergency. I always advocate three months of living expenses in cash, but you owe it to yourself to have gold and silver in your possession as well.
 
The test run for such a bank holiday was recently tried out in Cyprus where people woke up one day and discovered that their bank accounts were frozen. Those with large deposits had a very material percentage of those funds seized so that the bank's more senior creditors, the bondholders, could avoid the losses they were due.
 
Most people, at least those paying attention, learned two things from Cyprus:
  • In a time of crisis those in power will do whatever it takes to assure that the losses are spread across the population rather than taken by the relatively few institutions and individuals that should take the losses.
  • If you make a deposit with a bank, you are actually an unsecured creditor of that institution; which means you are legally last in line for repayment should that institution fail.
The final reason for holding gold, because it may be remonetized, is actually a very big draw for me. While the probability of this coming to pass may be low, the rewards would be very high for those holding gold should it occur.
 
Here are some numbers: The total amount of 'official gold,' or that held by central banks around the world, is 31,320 tonnes, or 1.01 billion troy ounces. In 2013 the total amount of money stock in the world was roughly $55 trillion. So if the world wanted 100% gold backing of all existing money, then the implied price for an ounce of gold is $54,455 per troy ounce.
 
Clearly that's a silly number (or is it?). But even a 10% partial backing of money yields $5,400 per ounce. The point here is not to bandy about outlandish numbers, but merely to point out that unless a great deal of the world's money stock is destroyed somehow, or a lot more official gold is bought from the market and placed into official hands, backing even a small fraction of the world's money supply by gold will result in a far higher number than today's $1300 per ounce.

Why Own Physical Gold

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 10:16 AM PDT

Here are some numbers...silly or perhaps not...
 
In 2001, as the painful end of the long stock bull market finally seeped into my consciousness, I began to grow quite concerned about my traditional stock and bond holdings, writes Chris Martenson at Peak Prosperity.
 
Other than a house with 27 years left on a 30-year mortgage, these paper holdings represented 100% of my investing portfolio. So I dug into the economic data to discover what the future likely held. What I found shocked me.
 
It's all in my Crash Course, in both video and book form, so I won't go into that data here; but a key takeaway is that the US is spending far more than it is earning, and supporting that gap by printing a whole lot of new money.
 
By 2002, I had investigated enough about our monetary, economic, and political systems that I came to the conclusion that holding gold and silver would be a very good idea. So I poured 50% of my liquid net worth into precious metals, and sat back and waited.
 
So far so good. But the best is yet to come...unfortunately. I say 'unfortunately' because the forces that are going to drive gold higher in current Dollar terms are the very same trends that are going to leave most people, and the planet, much worse off than they are now.
 
Why own gold? The reasons to hold gold (and silver), and I mean physical bullion, are pretty straightforward. So let's begin with the primary ones:
  • To protect against monetary recklessness;
  • As insulation against fiscal foolishness;
  • As insurance against the possibility of a major calamity in the banking/financial system;
  • For the embedded 'option value' that will pay out handsomely if gold is re-monetized.
By 'monetary recklessness,' I mean the creation of money out of thin air and the application of more liquidity than the productive economy actually needs. The central banks of the world have been doing this for decades, not just since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. In gold terms, the supply of above-ground gold is growing at 1.7% per year, while the money supply has been growing at more than three times that yearly rate since 1960.
 
 
Over time, that more than 5% growth differential has created an enormous gap due to the exponential 'miracle' of compounding.
 
Now this is admittedly an unfair view, because the economy has been growing, too. But money and credit growth has still handily outpaced the growth of our artificially and upwardly-distorted GDP measurements by a wide margin. Even as the economy stagnates under this too-large debt load, the credit system continues to expand as if perpetual growth were possible. Given this dynamic, we continue to expect all the resulting extra Dollars, debts and other assorted claims on real wealth to eventually show up in prices of goods and services.
 
And since we live in a system where money is loaned into existence, we also have to look at the growth in credit, as well. Since 1970 the US has been compounding its total credit market debts at the astounding rate of nearly 8% per annum.
 
 
This desperate drive for continuous compounding growth in money and credit is a principal piece of evidence that convinces me that hard assets, of which gold is perhaps the star representative for the average person, are the place to be for a sizeable portion of your stored wealth.
 
Real interest rates are deeply negative (meaning that the rate of inflation is higher than Treasury bond yields). This is a forced, manipulated outcome courtesy of central banks that are buying bonds with thin-air money. Of course, the true rate of inflation is much higher than the officially reported statistics by at least a full percent or possibly two, and so I consider bond yields to be far more negative than your typical observer.
 
Historically, periods of negative real interest rates are nearly always associated with outsized returns for commodities, especially precious metals. If and when real interest rates turn positive, I will reconsider my holdings in gold and silver, but not until then. That's as close to an absolute requirement as I have in this business.
 
Monetary policies across the developed world remain as accommodating as they've ever been. Even Greenspan's 1% blow-out special in 2003 was not as steeply negative in real terms as what Bernanke engineered over his more recent tenure. But it is the highly aggressive and 'alternative' use of the Federal Reserve balance sheet to prop up insolvent banks and to sop up extra Treasury debt that really has me worried.
 
There seems to be no way to end these ever-expanding programs, and they seem to have become a permanent feature of the economic and financial landscape. In Europe, the equivalent is the sovereign debt now found on the European Central Bank (ECB) balance sheet. In Japan we have prime minister Abe's ultra-aggressive policy of doubling the monetary base in just two years. Suffice it to say that such grand experiments have never been tried before, and anyone that has the vast bulk of their wealth tied up in financial assets is making an explicit bet that these experiments will go exactly as planned.
 
Federal fiscal deficits are seemingly out of control and are now stuck in the $1 trillion range. Massive deficit spending has always been inflationary, and inflation is usually gold/silver friendly. Although not always, mind you, as the correlation is not strong, especially during mild inflation (less than 5%). Note, for example, that gold fell from its high in 1980 all the way to its low in 1998, an 18 year period with plenty of mild inflation along the way. Sooner or later I expect extraordinary budget deficits to translate into extraordinary inflation.
 
Reason #3, insurance against a major calamity in the banking system, is an important part of my rationale for holding gold. And let me clear: I'm not referring to "paper" gold, which includes the various tradable vehicles (like the "GLD" ETF) that you can buy like stocks through your broker. I'm talking about physical gold and silver because of their unusual ability to sit outside of the banking/monetary system and act as monetary assets.
 
Literally everything else financial, including our paper US money, is simultaneously somebody else's liability. But gold and silver bullion are not. They are simply, boringly, just assets. This is a highly desirable characteristic that is not easily replicated.
 
Should the banking system suffer a systemic breakdown, to which I ascribe a reasonably high probability of greater than 1-in-3 over the next 5 years, I expect banks to close for some period of time. Whether it's two weeks or six months is unimportant; no matter the length of time, I'd prefer to be holding gold than bank deposits.
 
During a banking holiday, your money will be frozen and left just sitting there, even as everything priced in money (especially imported items) rocket up in price. By the time your money is again available to you, you may find that a large portion of it has been looted by the effects of a collapsing currency. How do you avoid this? Easy; keep some 'money' out of the system to spend during an emergency. I always advocate three months of living expenses in cash, but you owe it to yourself to have gold and silver in your possession as well.
 
The test run for such a bank holiday was recently tried out in Cyprus where people woke up one day and discovered that their bank accounts were frozen. Those with large deposits had a very material percentage of those funds seized so that the bank's more senior creditors, the bondholders, could avoid the losses they were due.
 
Most people, at least those paying attention, learned two things from Cyprus:
  • In a time of crisis those in power will do whatever it takes to assure that the losses are spread across the population rather than taken by the relatively few institutions and individuals that should take the losses.
  • If you make a deposit with a bank, you are actually an unsecured creditor of that institution; which means you are legally last in line for repayment should that institution fail.
The final reason for holding gold, because it may be remonetized, is actually a very big draw for me. While the probability of this coming to pass may be low, the rewards would be very high for those holding gold should it occur.
 
Here are some numbers: The total amount of 'official gold,' or that held by central banks around the world, is 31,320 tonnes, or 1.01 billion troy ounces. In 2013 the total amount of money stock in the world was roughly $55 trillion. So if the world wanted 100% gold backing of all existing money, then the implied price for an ounce of gold is $54,455 per troy ounce.
 
Clearly that's a silly number (or is it?). But even a 10% partial backing of money yields $5,400 per ounce. The point here is not to bandy about outlandish numbers, but merely to point out that unless a great deal of the world's money stock is destroyed somehow, or a lot more official gold is bought from the market and placed into official hands, backing even a small fraction of the world's money supply by gold will result in a far higher number than today's $1300 per ounce.

Tocqueville's Hathaway says London probe could scare off investors

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 09:30 AM PDT

By Francesa Freeman
The Wall Street Journal
Monday, April 7, 2014

Investigations into the London gold fix could scare institutional investors away from the metal, according the head of one of the world's largest investors in gold and precious metals mining shares.

"We as money managers in the space have been hurt more not by the price action but by the feeling among investors that [London pricing] is just too weird, too inexplicable," said John Hathaway, who oversees $2 billion in gold investments for Tocqueville Asset Management. ...

... For the full story:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/04/07/tocqueville-gold-fund-says-lon...



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Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
Union League Club, New York City
Thursday, May 22, 2014

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Canadian Investor Conference 2014
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India's central bank eases gold import restrictions and their repeal is expected

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 09:05 AM PDT

12:02a HKT Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Resource Investor's Paul Ploumis reports that the Reserve Bank of India has authorized five more banks to import gold into the country and that the new government being elected this week is expected to get rid of gold import restrictions entirely:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2014/04/07/gold-premiums-tumble-in-india

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Jim Sinclair to hold gold market seminar in Toronto on April 26

Mining entrepreneur and gold advocate Jim Sinclair's next gold market seminar will be held from 1 to 5 p.m. Saturday, April 26, at the Pearson Hotel & Conference Centre at Toronto's Pearson International Airport, 240 Belfield Road, Toronto. For details on tickets, please visit Sinclair's Internet site, JSMineSet.com, here:

http://www.jsmineset.com/2014/04/01/toronto-qa-session-announced/



Join GATA here:

Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference
AT&T Performing Arts Center
Margot and Bill Winspear Opera House
2403 Flora St., Dallas, Texas
Saturday, May 31, 2014

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Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
Union League Club, New York City
Thursday, May 22, 2014

http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/

Canadian Investor Conference 2014
Vancouver Convention Centre West
1055 Canada Place, Vancouver, British Columbia
Sunday and Monday, June 1 and 2, 2014

http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc...

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Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

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Gerald Celente - Banker deaths, Russia, Gold Dropping, global unrest, Syria,Turkey, Ukraine, 3rd world war: the Internet war

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 09:01 AM PDT

Gerald Celente - Infowars Radio - March 28, 2014 Banker deaths, US/Global econ. Russia, gold dropping, global unrest, Syria, Turkey, Ukraine, 3rd world war: the Internet war One of the best-known futurists in the country is Gerald Celente. He is the founder of the Trends Research...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gerald Celente : The Forthcoming Collapse, Bankster Suicides, and Ukraine

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 08:54 AM PDT

Gerald Celente - Before Its News - March 27, 2014 One of the best-known futurists in the country is Gerald Celente. He is the founder of the Trends Research Institute. He is also the best-selling author of Trends 2000 and Trend Tracking. He has appeared on several of the largest media...

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Gold manipulation – ex US Treasury top gun tells us how and why

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:59 AM PDT

Former U.S. Treasury Under Secretary, Paul Craig Roberts, asserts that the Fed and its banker allies do indeed manipulate the gold price to their own ends and describes how this is achieved.

Read more….

Lend us your gold: Indian banks push farmers to back loans with gold

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:59 AM PDT

With agricultural loans turning in the highest numbers of bad loans, banks in India are asking farmers to pledge their gold.

Read more….

Sibanye Gold may buy platinum mines after strike

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:59 AM PDT

South Africa's Sibanye Gold says it will consider buying platinum mines once the wage strike that's crippling the sector is resolved.

Read more….

Dubai gold centre to tighten sourcing supervision

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:59 AM PDT

Dubai gold centre's response to media reports alleging it ignored international guidelines designed to prevent human rights abuses and underground trade by African warlords.

Read more….

Koos Jansen: A close look at gold and silver demand in India

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:48 AM PDT

10:45p HKT Monday, April 7, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen today takes a close look at gold and silver demand in India, where silver demand has been breaking records because of the government's tighter restrictions on gold imports. His commentary is posted at his Internet site, In Gold We Trust, here:

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/january-india-silver-import-462-mt

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Join GATA here:

Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference
AT&T Performing Arts Center
Margot and Bill Winspear Opera House
2403 Flora St., Dallas, Texas
Saturday, May 31, 2014

http://stansberrydallas.com/

Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
Union League Club, New York City
Thursday, May 22, 2014

http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/

Canadian Investor Conference 2014
Vancouver Convention Centre West
1055 Canada Place, Vancouver, British Columbia
Sunday and Monday, June 1 and 2, 2014

http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Silver mining stock report for 2014 comes with 1-ounce silver round

Future Money Trends is offering a special 18-page silver mining stock report about how to profit with the monetary and industrial metal in 2014, and it comes with a free 1-ounce silver round. Proceeds from the report's sales are shared with the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts to expose manipulation in the monetary metals markets. To learn about this report, please visit:

http://fmturl.com/gata/


Total Collapse of America by 2030 -- James Traficant

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:20 AM PDT

Former Congressman James Traficant sits down with Gary Franchi and reveals his prediction of America's total collapse by 2030... And a plan to stop it. James Anthony Traficant, Jr., was a prominent and controversial Ohio politician in the late Twentieth Century. Traficant was born on May...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Profiting from History: These Pioneers Turn Crisis into Opportunity

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 06:27 AM PDT

Dear Reader,

BIG GOLD editor Jeff Clark is so keen on the new company recommendation made in this month’s issue, he wanted to let everyone in on the pick right away. The people in question have a very Doug Casey-esque flair for finding opportunity in times and places in transition, if not flat-out crisis.

We can’t give away what BIG GOLD subscribers have paid for, of course, but the unabashed account below explains why Jeff wants to be sure everyone has a chance to buy shares in this company before it achieves the major milestones planned for this year.

In completely noncommercial news, there are new Casey Phyles forming in Panama City, Panama; and Singapore. Anyone interested should email phyle@caseyresearch.com for details.

And now, on to the main event.

Happy investing,

Louis James
Senior Metals Investment Strategist
Casey Research

Rock & Stock Stats
Last
One Month Ago
One Year Ago
Gold 1,302.64 1,337.90 1,552.40
Silver 19.95 21.22 26.77
Copper 3.01 3.21 3.35
Oil 101.14 103.33 93.26
Gold Producers (GDX) 24.26 26.10 35.22
Gold Junior Stocks (GDXJ) 37.50 41.88 60.20
Silver Stocks (SIL) 12.89 13.93 17.04
TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) 14,393.10 14,289.86 12,363.05
TSX Venture 1,007.16 1,021.33 1,026.72

Profiting from History: These Pioneers Turn Crisis into Opportunity

Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

“So what other companies do you like?” I asked a fellow analyst on a mine tour.

He didn’t hesitate. He named an emerging producer and said it was his top gold stock pick. It had his highest rating.

That caught my attention, but what made me really perk up was the gleam in his eye when describing the company and the people behind it. He was really passionate about this one.

The interesting thing was that I was actually quite familiar with the company. My colleague Louis James and I had both been watching this budding producer for several years. We had even drafted a write-up to recommend it to subscribers, but in the end passed due to our concerns about the higher political risk in the play.

However, the company stayed on our watch list, and over the next couple of years we observed how management continued to successfully navigate several mining jurisdictions others viewed as too troublesome to bother with. It became increasingly clear this team was extremely skilled at working in “frontier” territories.

Ultimately, we decided to take the plunge, convinced by what is doubtless the most important P in Doug Casey’s “Eight Ps of Resource Stock Evaluation”… People.

Doug made his fortune in large part by betting on the right people—serial mine finders who could be counted on to repeat their successes.

People just like the management team of the “pioneer pick” we just recommended to BIG GOLD readers.

It’s a team of geologists, engineers, and financial executives who have been together for 25 years, and who did amazing things with their last junior company before it was taken over by a major producer for a whopping $3.5 billion.

Here are a few snippets from their previous success story that should give you a good idea of why we’re buying this stock…

Investing in a Changing Chile

In 1988, the team entered Chile to explore for precious metals. Many in the industry considered this a bold move, because the government back then was a dictatorship under a military junta presided over by General Augusto Pinochet.

Pinochet advocated a free-market economy and had already begun to move in that direction. In the years from 1984 to 1990, Chile's gross domestic product grew by an annual average of 5.9%, the fastest on the continent, which resulted in the country becoming one of the richest in South America.

That’s the kind of opportunity the CEO of our “pioneer pick” watches for. He told me in an interview: “We’re always on the lookout for countries in political and/or economic transition… if you can catch a country in that transition period and get in early, you can beat the crowd.”

It was hard to raise money for exploration in that turbulent environment, and it was a risk, but the team nailed it. During their work in Chile, they discovered a high-grade gold mine they later sold to Kinross, and another large gold deposit that Barrick snapped up.

Ice Road Truckers

True to its mission, the company went to Russia in the early 1990s, shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Again, some in the industry scratched their heads—after the crash, the newly emerged Russian economy was still shaky and no one knew what the near future would bring. On top of that, gold was trading below $400 an ounce.

Despite the challenges, management were attracted to the vast, untapped mineral potential in Russia and thought they could successfully deal with the Russian leadership. They bought an asset that had seen some drilling and had proven mineralization—but the original owners couldn’t raise the money to advance the deposit and didn’t have the technical expertise to build a mine.

The team raised the money and put a high-grade gold and silver deposit into production. It later sold for big money.

The first project in Russia worked out so well that they went for a second. They found a project in Chukotka, located in the country’s far east—so far, in fact, you could almost see Alaska across the Bering Sea. The CEO said in our interview, “You know when Sara Palin said she could see Russia from her house? Well, it was probably our mine she could see.”

The team negotiated a deal with the government of Chukotka, whose governor, Roman Abramovich, was one of the wealthiest men in the world. During his time as governor of this godforsaken place above the Arctic Circle, Abramovich spent over US$1 billion—some of it his own money—to develop infrastructure and revitalize the region.

The CEO met with Abramovich and negotiated a deal: “If the deposit contained economic gold, we’d share the profits.” The partnership was a good deal for both parties, because Abramovich was interested in attracting investors for natural-resource exploration to the impoverished area.

The deposit turned out to be one of the richest gold and silver discoveries of the last 30 years.

“It was so exciting,” the CEO said, “that we started to ship equipment from Vancouver up the Bering Sea and over to Russia, when you had to get the ships in and out before the ocean freezes. We built 440 kilometers of ice roads every January to take all of the equipment in, and we only had a short time to do it because the road disappeared in May. We had 187 trucks on the road 24/7. They still do today.”

The bottom line is that they successfully navigated all the peculiarities and risks of Mother Russia. Twice.

Eventually, the team sold the company for $3.5 billion—a company that had started as a junior gold explorer with a tiny market cap.

And They’re Ready to Do It Again

Today, this same team has built a new company that is well on the path to more great successes. Our “pioneer pick” is a growing mid-tier producer that:

  • Bought mining assets at the bottom of the market in 2009 that are now in production and highly profitable;
  • Is sitting on a quarter-billion dollars in cash;
  • Had no write-downs last year (unlike many other producers);
  • Has a big jump in production just around the corner;
  • Best of all, the company’s stock has demonstrated high leverage to the price of gold.

A large part of our bet is that this team will continue to be successful in the frontier locations where its mines are today. These guys are mining cowboys who aren’t afraid to go where others fear to tread.

This is not our lowest-risk investment, and the stock is more volatile than most others in our producer-focused portfolio, but if their success continues and the political climate of the host countries remains reasonably stable, the stock is poised to be a high performer. In fact…

This producer has been one of the top-performing gold stocks this year.

We think that performance will continue over the next several years, and we outline exactly why we think it will beat most other gold stocks in the just released issue of BIG GOLD.

You can get the name of this company—along with the catalysts likely to propel the stock much higher this year—with a risk-free trial subscription to BIG GOLD.

You have 90 days to find out whether or not it is right for you—if you aren’t 100% satisfied, for whatever reason, simply cancel for a no-questions-asked, prompt refund of every penny you paid. And even if you decide to cancel AFTER the 90 days are up, you’ll still get a refund on the unused portion of your subscription. Click here to get started right now.

P.S. With your BIG GOLD subscription comes instant access to the archives and subscribers-only special reports. Make sure to check out the March issue, where we showed how high gold and silver might go, along with estimated dates when that could happen.



Gold and Silver HEADLINES

ETF Investors Selling Gold Again (Mining.com)

As Jeff outlined last month, March is historically a weak month for gold. So no surprise that gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETF) saw some rather large redemptions. During the last two weeks of March, ETF sales took total bullion holdings down to 1,759.4 tonnes (56.5 million ounces).

We agree with what Zhang Bingnan, secretary-general of the China Gold Association, said about this last year: “The dumping of holdings in gold exchange-traded products by overseas investors may not prove to be a wise move.”

Scientists Warn Silver Particles Harmful for Humans, Wildlife (Mining.com)

Silver is well known for its ability to kill microbacteria. However, evidence of harmful reactions in human cells is growing. Scientists and environmental groups warn that the widespread use of nanosilver may pose risks. How silver particles may affect human health or ecosystems in the long run is still unknown.

Another risk is that silver may lose its power to fight infections if bacteria become more resistant—a phenomenon already seen with other antibiotic drugs and triclosan, an ingredient added to antibacterial soaps, cosmetics, and other commercial goods.

As always, everything in moderation.

South Africa Mining Union: We Won’t Bend! (Mineweb)

The Association of Mineworkers & Construction (AMCU) vowed to bring the platinum industry to a standstill if the big three producers do not adhere to their demands. Addressing thousands of workers in Johannesburg, AMCU president Joseph Mathunjwa said the union and its members “are prepared to go through leaps and bounds” to ensure their demands of an R12500 minimum wage are met.

This amounts to an approximate 30% increase, an unworkable amount that mining companies simply can’t pay. The reality is that producers don’t have that much room to move, given current costs—but the union doesn’t seem to grasp that.

Further, companies are moving more toward mechanized mining. That process is inevitable, and of course will mean fewer workers.

This dispute ain’t over.


Recent News in International Speculator and BIG GOLD—Key Updates for Subscribers

International Speculator

  • One of our high-grade gold exploration companies reported on important progress underground at its flagship project. The work sets the stage for more exciting results and means our speculation remains on track.
  • One of our development-stage companies is moving toward construction of its first mine; here’s our take.

BIG GOLD

J.S. Kim: High-frequency trading's bigger offense is gold and silver price suppression

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 06:08 AM PDT

9p HKT Monday, April 7, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Financial letter writer J.S. Kim argues today that the bigger offense and objective of high-frequency trading are suppression of gold and silver prices through "quote stuffing" and spoof bids, a complaint in which he joins GATA. Kim's commentary is headlined "The One Revelation about HFT Programs that Truly Scares Bankers (Hint: It's About Gold and Silver)" and it's posted at his Internet site, Smart Knowledge U, here:

https://www.smartknowledgeu.com/blog/2014/04/the-one-revelation-about-hf...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Join GATA here:

Porter Stansberry Natural Resources Conference
AT&T Performing Arts Center
Margot and Bill Winspear Opera House
2403 Flora St., Dallas, Texas
Saturday, May 31, 2014

http://stansberrydallas.com/

Committee for Monetary Research and Education
Spring Dinner Meeting
Union League Club, New York City
Thursday, May 22, 2014

http://www.cmre.org/news/spring-meeting-2014/

Canadian Investor Conference 2014
Vancouver Convention Centre West
1055 Canada Place, Vancouver, British Columbia
Sunday and Monday, June 1 and 2, 2014

http://cambridgehouse.com/event/25/canadian-investor-conference-2014-inc...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Gold Prices Tight Near $1300, Asian Trading "Lacking" with China Demand as India Goes to Polls

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 05:56 AM PDT

GOLD PRICES held tight around $1300 per ounce lunchtime Monday in London, after ticking $5 back from last week's close in very quiet China and Asian trade overnight.
 
Gold trading in Shanghai was closed for China's Ching Ming festival bank holiday.
 
Gold prices for other Western investors also ticked back from Friday's sharp rally following the latest US jobs data, as the US Dollar held flat on the currency market.
 
European stock markets meantime caught up with Friday's sharp drop in New York's tech-stock Nasdaq, with Germany's Dax dropping 1.5% by early afternoon in Frankfurt.
 
"With China out on holiday today, prospects for any price action were not great from the beginning," says the Asian trading desk of Swiss refining and finance group MKS.
 
"Opening volumes [on the Globex gold derivatives platform] were the lowest seen in weeks."
 
"Gold prices in China remain at a slight discount below the international price," says Jonathan Butler at Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi, "indicating that physical demand in that market is lacking at present."
 
Today in India, formerly the world's heaviest gold-buying nation, voting began in the month-long general election expected to see the ruling Congress Party replaced by the BJP of Narendra Modi.
 
Modi has publicly backed India's gold trading and jewelry industries, which have called for 2013's effective ban on new imports to be overturned.
 
Gold prices in India held steady Monday, keeping the premium over London prices around $40 per ounce – sharply down from the record $150 premiums per ounce seen as the anti-import rules hit last summer.
 
Major gold-trading hub Dubai – a key transit point for gold bullion between Europe's refineries and Indian buyers – will see the launch of a spot gold price contract for kilobars this June, said Gary Anderson, chief executive of the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange, this morning.
 
The Middle Eastern state is also seeking to tighten "supply chain evidence" for gold entering its markets, parent exchange the DMCC said Sunday, responding to whistle-blower accusations that gold refiner and jeweler Kaloti Group accepted metal from unknown sources.

Zombification of America - Welcome To Terminus, Collapse will be Sudden

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 05:46 AM PDT

“Life improves slowly and goes wrong fast, and only catastrophe is clearly visible.” – Edward Teller I was a late arrival to the Walking Dead television program. I don’t watch much of the mindless drivel passing for entertainment on the 600 worthless channels available 24/7 on cable TV. I assumed it was another superficial zombie horror show on par with the teenage vampire crap polluting the airwaves. Last year a friend told me I had to watch the show. I was hooked immediately and after some marathon watching of seasons one and two, I understood the various storylines and back stories. What the show doesn’t openly reveal is the deeper meanings, symbolism, and lessons we can learn from viewing human beings trying to survive in a post-apocalyptic world. In my opinion, the horror and gore is secondary to the human responses to horrific circumstances and the consequences of individual and group decisions to their survival.

Monday Morning Links

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 05:13 AM PDT

MUST READS Pro-Russia protesters seize Ukraine buildings – Reuters Russian lawmakers call for ditching 'dirty, bloody dollar' – RT News That screeching sound is the market losing momentum – MarketWatch The market suddenly hates tech stocks and no one knows why – Quartz Five signs that the global economic recovery may be an illusion – Guardian US gasoline prices rose nearly [...]

Silver Price Rally Short-Lived After Weak NFP, Analysts Bearish on ETF, China "Overhang"

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 02:19 AM PDT

Silver price drops US jobs data jump as analysts point to "overhang" of investment and Chinese stockpiles...
 
SILVER PRICE gains of 1.5% on Friday after weaker-than-expected US jobs data in the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report were quickly reversed as the weekend began, fading further in Asia overnight Monday.
 
March's NFP report from the Department of Labor came in with 192,000 jobs added to US payrolls. Average analyst expectations were for 200,000 and some were looking for as high as 275,000.
 
The overall unemployment rate remained at 6.7%, while most analysts were looking for an improvement to 6.6%.
 
The silver price traded as high as $20.23 per ounce following Friday's news, as Dollar-based assets fell and money switched into markets such as silver, gold and emerging markets.
 
But Friday's closing silver price was back below $20 per ounce, with May silver futures – the most actively traded silver contract on the Comex – settling at $19.946 per ounce, some 16¢ above the low of the day but well below the $20.23 reached after the release of the NFP news.
 
Silver prices benchmarked by the London bullion market's daily Fix ended the week at $19.93 per ounce, some 10¢ higher than Thursday before and 22¢ higher than the week before.
 
"The risk is for more downside in the silver price near-term," write technical analysts at Swiss bank and London bullion market makers UBS, "with no major support until 18.84.
 
"A break below this would open the way to test 18.23, the June 2013 low."
 
Longer-term, the silver price downside is worse reckon French bank Natixis's analysts Nic Brown and Bernard Dahdah.
 
Calling for $15 an ounce in 2015, Natixis believe there exists an overhang of silver investment holdings in exchange-traded trust fund products (ETFs). Because "since the beginning of the financial crisis, investment demand has grown to 25% of total demand for silver," but the typical level is only 8%.
 
"Were this to fall back to historical levels," Natixis says, "it would leave a major gap that industrial demand is unlikely to be able to fill."
 
As of Friday's data, silver ETFs now hold almost 19,800 tonnes of silver bullion bars – equivalent to a little over 80% of 2012 world silver mine production according to the Silver Institute.
 
"China's silver inventory levels [also] remain high," says Walter de Wet of South Africa's Standard Bank, "possibly up to 15 months' worth of fabrication demand."
 
The US Mint last week reported sales of their Silver Eagle coin for March at 5,354,000 – some 166 tonnes and an increase of 60% over the same month last year.
 
Total 2014-to-date Silver Eagle sales are now 432 tonnes, a very slight decline of 2.4% from the first 3 months of 2013.

Silver Price Rally Short-Lived After Weak NFP, Analysts Bearish on ETF, China "Overhang"

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 02:19 AM PDT

Silver price drops US jobs data jump as analysts point to "overhang" of investment and Chinese stockpiles...
 
SILVER PRICE gains of 1.5% on Friday after weaker-than-expected US jobs data in the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report were quickly reversed as the weekend began, fading further in Asia overnight Monday.
 
March's NFP report from the Department of Labor came in with 192,000 jobs added to US payrolls. Average analyst expectations were for 200,000 and some were looking for as high as 275,000.
 
The overall unemployment rate remained at 6.7%, while most analysts were looking for an improvement to 6.6%.
 
The silver price traded as high as $20.23 per ounce following Friday's news, as Dollar-based assets fell and money switched into markets such as silver, gold and emerging markets.
 
But Friday's closing silver price was back below $20 per ounce, with May silver futures – the most actively traded silver contract on the Comex – settling at $19.946 per ounce, some 16¢ above the low of the day but well below the $20.23 reached after the release of the NFP news.
 
Silver prices benchmarked by the London bullion market's daily Fix ended the week at $19.93 per ounce, some 10¢ higher than Thursday before and 22¢ higher than the week before.
 
"The risk is for more downside in the silver price near-term," write technical analysts at Swiss bank and London bullion market makers UBS, "with no major support until 18.84.
 
"A break below this would open the way to test 18.23, the June 2013 low."
 
Longer-term, the silver price downside is worse reckon French bank Natixis's analysts Nic Brown and Bernard Dahdah.
 
Calling for $15 an ounce in 2015, Natixis believe there exists an overhang of silver investment holdings in exchange-traded trust fund products (ETFs). Because "since the beginning of the financial crisis, investment demand has grown to 25% of total demand for silver," but the typical level is only 8%.
 
"Were this to fall back to historical levels," Natixis says, "it would leave a major gap that industrial demand is unlikely to be able to fill."
 
As of Friday's data, silver ETFs now hold almost 19,800 tonnes of silver bullion bars – equivalent to a little over 80% of 2012 world silver mine production according to the Silver Institute.
 
"China's silver inventory levels [also] remain high," says Walter de Wet of South Africa's Standard Bank, "possibly up to 15 months' worth of fabrication demand."
 
The US Mint last week reported sales of their Silver Eagle coin for March at 5,354,000 – some 166 tonnes and an increase of 60% over the same month last year.
 
Total 2014-to-date Silver Eagle sales are now 432 tonnes, a very slight decline of 2.4% from the first 3 months of 2013.

Chinese Gold Demand Renewed Estimates

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 02:12 AM PDT

Geopolitical and market background I have been revisiting estimates of the quantities of gold being absorbed by China, and yet again I have had to revise them upwards. Analysis of the detail discovered in historic information in the context of China’s gold strategy has allowed me for the first time to make reasonable estimates of vaulted gold, comprised of gold accounts at commercial banks, mine output and scrap. There is also compelling evidence mine output and scrap are being accumulated by the government in its own vaults, and not being delivered to satisfy public demand.

Gold Market Quarter-end Distortions

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 02:08 AM PDT

The gold price continued the previous week's fall into Monday, which was the end of the first quarter of 2014. Since then having reached a low point of $1278 in New York trading, gold rallied to a high of $1294 on Tuesday before weakening on Thursday morning. The biggest influence was not stories and announcements, but the market-makers' attempts to reduce their exposure by the quarter-end. This can be clearly seen in the chart of gold and open interest below.

Gold and Silver Markets Phase III Annihilation.... Are You Serious?

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 01:42 AM PDT

We’re going to do something a little different for the Weekend Report this week. I would like to give the spotlight to Sir Plunger for his most excellent work on the Phase 3 for the PM stocks bear market. It deserves to be read by the members of Rambus Chartology and the general public at large. I just want to thank you Sir Plunger for all the time, research, and energy it takes to put together something like your Phase 3 bear market outlook for the precious metals stocks. As most of you know, Plunger is our resident expert on market history.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Pop Go the Weasels - Thank You To Zerohedge et al.

Posted: 06 Apr 2014 09:30 AM PDT

Le Cafe Américain

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